WHAT MONEY DOES What Money Does THE THREE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY 1. Medium of Exchange Macroeconomics In this video, I will describe what money does, meaning what functions money provides to the economy. And, I will show how the services that money provides to the economy impact output. Money has three functions. First, money serves as a medium of exchange. This means people use it to buy and sell goods, services, and financial securities. A good way to appreciate the importance of an effective medium of exchange is to imagine what happens when there is not an effective medium of exchange. If money is not an effective medium of exchange, people would be forced to barter, and that does not work very well. For example, if I wanted a cup of coffee and a snack, I could give part of this lecture on inflation at a coffee shop in return for a large cup of coffee and a slice of cake. Or, perhaps, I might only get a small cup of coffee and no cake if the barista at the coffee shop is not very interested in macroeconomics. Without well-functioning money, I might not get the coffee that I want and the people most interested in macroeconomics might not get the information they seek. THE THREE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY 2. Store of Value Second, money also functions as a store of value. This means that we can hold money to trade it for goods and services in the future. This is very convenient as it means that we do not have to exchange money immediately after we sell goods and services. THE THREE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY 3. Unit of Account Three, money functions as a unit of account, meaning that money provides the terms in which people quote prices and record debts. If I ask you about the value of something, you are likely to respond in terms of its U.S. dollar value. Just as we might think about temperature in terms of Celsius or Fahrenheit, people tend to think about value in terms of a specific unit of account. This illustrates that in many contexts, money as a unit of account is deeply ingrained in how we conceptualize the value of goods, services, and jobs. HOW MONEY INFLUENCES POTENTIAL OUTPUT Well-Functioning Money 1. Facilitates specialization and enhances productivity (A) Macroeconomics How does money influence potential output? First, when money functions well—when money serves as an effective medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account—money facilitates specialization. For example, when money functions well, I can really focus on becoming the best macroeconomist that I can be! Then, I can sell that expertise to others for money and use that money to make purchases. I do not have to worry about growing my own food; I can specialize in macroeconomics. Others can specialize in growing food and being the best farmers that they can be. With well-functioning money, the economy gets better macroeconomic expertise and food. This is crucial. An effective medium of exchange facilitates specialization and specialization enhances productivity. Putting this view of what money does in the context of our Solow Growth Model, the economy gets more and better output with the same inputs, meaning “A” increases and potential output increases. HOW MONEY INFLUENCES POTENTIAL OUTPUT Well-Functioning Money 2. Reduces uncertainty, which enhances efficiency (A) Second, when money functions well, it reduces uncertainty and facilitates business deals, with positive repercussions on efficiency and output. This is very closely related to the first point of how money influences output. For example, consider the following business deal. I lend you $1,000 now for you to produce pens. You promise to give me $2,000 in two years. This deal is going to be less risky—and presumably more likely to happen—if we are more certain about the purchasing power of those dollars. Since you have to pay me $2,000 in two years, you want to have a good sense of how many pens you need to sell to be able to pay me back. Since I am going to get $2,000 in two years, I want to know how much stuff I can buy when you pay me back. If money is a sound store of value and an accepted medium of exchange, this will reduce our uncertainty and facilitate the deal. With well-functioning money, you can produce your fantastic pens and the economy will operate more efficiently. If money does not function well, the deal is less likely to happen and those great pens might not get produced. HOW MONEY INFLUENCES POTENTIAL OUTPUT Well-Functioning Money 3. Can also encourage savings (s), which also affect potential output Third, when money functions well, it can encourage savings. If we are confident about the future purchasing power of money and it is easier to make business deals, this can increase our willingness to forgo consumption, save, and boost the economy’s capital stock. As we know from the Solow model, such an increase in the savings rate will increase potential output. HOW MONEY INFLUENCES POTENTIAL OUTPUT Solow Growth Model y y0=A0f(k) (δ+n)k y0 sy0=sA0f(k) k0 Steady-state level of output per capita (y0) and capital per capita (k0) k We can illustrate the importance of well-functioning money using the tried and true Solow Growth Model. As shown, let’s start from an economy where money does not function very well and where the economy has converged to its steady state level of output per person. This is indicated with y0. HOW MONEY INFLUENCES POTENTIAL OUTPUT Solow Growth Model y y=A1f(k) y1 (δ+n)k y0 y=A0f(k) With well-functioning money, people can specialize and become more productive: sA1f(k) ■ sA0f(k) k0 k1 k This increases A0 to A1. The economy can now produce more output with the same inputs because efficiency increased. Now, let’s introduce well-functioning money. Well-functioning money makes it easier for individuals to specialize and become more productive at their jobs and it makes it easier for businesses to make productive deals. We illustrate this improvement in productivity as an increase in A from A0 to A1. This shifts the production function up, meaning more can be produced with the same inputs. As shown, the economy converges to a new, higher level of steady state output per worker, which we designate as y1. THE THREE FUNCTIONS OF MONEY Medium of Exchange Store of Value Unit of Account Bottom-line: Money functions as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. WELL-PERFORMING MONEY Productivity Savings Output When it performs these functions well, money boosts productivity, savings, and output. HOW INFLATION SLOWS GROWTH How Inflation Slows Growth INFLATION REDUCES PRODUCTIVITY When money is functioning less effectively, people: ■ Avoid holding money ■ Monitor/Change prices ■ Develop skills to avoid the costs of inflation In this video, I explain how inflation reduces potential output and slows economic growth. The primary way in which inflation influences potential output is by changing what people do. At an intuitive level, think of yourself doing the best that you can at your job. Now, I start incessantly bothering you. You will be less productive. Inflation is like that. It bothers everyone, reduces their productivity, and lowers potential output. At a more concrete level, high inflation means prices are rising quickly and money is losing value rapidly. Money becomes a less effective store of value because it is losing value. To avoid this bother—to avoid this loss in the purchasing power of money, people will spend more time trying to not hold money; they spend more time on monitoring changes in prices; they spend more time changing the prices of what they sell to keep pace with inflation, and they spend more time developing skills to escape the losses associated with money losing value. That is, people are incessantly bothered by inflation and this makes them less productive. Let’s keep going with this example. When economies have high inflation, many of the brightest individuals are pulled into businesses that help other businesses and individuals evade the economic costs from inflation. These bright, talented individuals help others hedge inflation risk, invest overseas, and economize on cash balances. If inflation were low, these bright, talented people would focus on boosting efficiency, innovation, and output. We can describe all of this extra time and talent spent on inflation-avoiding activities as unproductive because people would not waste their time on these activities in the absence of inflation. INFLATION REDUCES PRODUCTIVITY Solow Growth Model y y0 (δ+n)k y1 y=A0f(k) Inflation reduces the efficient functioning of money: y=A1f(k) ■ People spend time on avoiding the consequences of inflation. ■ This reduces productivity (A). ■ Steady-state output per worker falls. sA0f(k) sA1f(k) k1 k0 k We can illustrate the adverse impact of inflation on the economy using the Solow Growth Model. Inflation impedes the functioning of money. Money becomes a less secure store of value and may even reduce its effectiveness as a medium of exchange and unit of account. As a result, inflation changes what people do. They spend more time on avoiding inflation and less time on improving the productive capabilities of the economy. In other words, inflation lowers “A” from A0 to A1. As a result, potential output falls from y sub-zero to y sub-one. INFLATION REDUCES POTENTIAL OUTPUT Uncertainty about prices: ■ Impedes longer-run business deals and investments ■ Changes the quantity and allocation of savings ■ Reduces efficiency (A) ■ May reduce savings too (s) Another way that inflation reduces potential output is by increasing uncertainty. The key issue is that high inflation goes hand-in-hand with greater uncertainty about prices. In terms of mathematics, inflation and the volatility of inflation are extremely highly correlated. This means that as inflation increases, it is not just that prices are rising faster; it also means that there is greater risk about how fast prices are rising. With all of the extra uncertainty, inflation makes it harder to complete business deals. I am less likely to lend you $1,000 for a promise of $2,000 in two years if I do not know how much stuff I can buy with that $2,000 in two years. As a result, people might just buy and consume more stuff now rather than save and make productive investments. In our Solow Model, this means that the greater uncertainty about prices triggered by inflation reduces productivity, “A,” and perhaps “s,” the savings rate, too—both of which work to reduce output. INFLATION EXAMPLE: ZIMBABWE Inflation Example: Zimbabwe ZIMBABWE As an example of the impact of inflation on an economy, let’s consider Zimbabwe, where there was a hyperinflation between 2007 and 2009. Yes, this is one country and yes it happened long ago. But, it dramatically illustrates how inflation reduces the functioning of money and hurts growth. Just look at the denomination of this note! One hundred trillion dollars. This number alone dramatically suggests that something went badly wrong. HYPERINFLATION IN ZIMBABWE: 2007-2009 Zimbabwe consumer price inflation soars amid hyperinflationary period. Source: International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics Database; Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Monthly Economic Reviews Inflation was about 50% per month in March 2007. That is already extremely high. It means that prices are more than doubling every other month. Think about that. At 50% inflation per month, the prices of everything that you buy are doubling every few weeks. Then, things really went awry. Inflation exploded, rising so high that the government stopped producing price statistics. At its peak, inflation was 98% per day. Yes, prices were doubling each day. In April 2009, Zimbabwe officially abandoned its own money and people used the U.S. dollar and the Euro. INFLATION CHANGES WHAT PEOPLE DO 1. Change to “hard” currency; buy gold, jewelry, anything that would be a reliable store of value. Imagine that you are living under these conditions. What would you do? Really, imagine prices are doubling every week, so that the purchasing power of the local currency in your pocket and your bank account is falling by half each week. What would you do? First, you would want to do something with that currency in your pocket and in your bank account besides keeping it in your pocket and the bank. You might buy foreign currency; you might buy gold, silver, jewelry; you might buy almost anything that would be a useful store of value. INFLATION CHANGES WHAT PEOPLE DO 2. If inflation is rapid enough, you might run out during the middle of work to shop before prices rise. ■ You might demand to have your salary adjusted automatically to inflation. Grocery Store Second, you would probably ask your boss to pay you during the day, so that you could run out and get groceries before the prices rose; you would have to figure out a way to have your pay linked to inflation, so that your salary did not diminish to something worth nothing in a few weeks. INFLATION CHANGES WHAT PEOPLE DO 3. If you were the owner of a business, you might need to change prices multiple times during the day. If you were the owner of a business, you might need to change prices during the day, as the prices of your supplies and workers rose. More of your time would be spent managing problems associated with inflation, not managing production in your business. For everyone, many hours of each day would be spent on trying to avoid the ravages of inflation, reducing productivity and welfare. There would be massive protests—and there were massive protests in Zimbabwe—about inflation. INFLATION CHANGES WHAT PEOPLE DO Government tries to limit price increases, and then... Supermarket shelves emptied because of price controls. Photo credit: Eugene Baron The government responded to the protests about inflation by legislating that there would not be inflation. In other words, they prevented business from raising prices. While this sounds good, it does not make much sense. Producers could not survive as their own costs kept rising, since not all prices were fixed and the prices of imported goods kept soaring in local Zimbabwean dollar terms. This quickly meant that stores were empty. INFLATION CHANGES WHAT PEOPLE DO People try to use the cash for something else... Signs such as this one appeared in Zimbabwe during its hyperinflation episode. Photo credit: Eugene Baron While people used the essentially worthwhile Zimbabwean dollar in a manner that they found useful, this use of the currency created other problems. INFLATION CHANGES WHAT PEOPLE DO Economic decline wipes out 53 years of income growth in Zimbabwe. Source: Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 7.0, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, May 2011. The economy collapsed, wiping out 53 years of economic growth. Well-functioning money is really important for economic prosperity. DEFLATION IS HARMFUL TOO Deflation is Harmful Too DEFLATION HURTS DEBTORS 1. Unexpected deflation increases real cost of debt and leads to inefficient bankruptcies. Pen Co. Deflation can be harmful to output too! Deflation is when prices fall. While deflation does happen, sustained deflation over many years does not happen often. There are two main ways through which deflation can hurt potential output. First, unexpected deflation tends to increase the real cost of debt and lead to costly, unnecessary bankruptcies. Let’s consider an example to see how deflation raises the real cost of debt and increases the probability of bankruptcies. Consider a situation in which I lend you $1000 for capital investments in your pen manufacturing firm and you promise to pay me back $2,000 in two years. DEFLATION HURTS DEBTORS 1. Unexpected deflation increases real cost of debt and leads to inefficient bankruptcies. X 1000 = $2000 $2 X 2000 = $2000 $1 If prices fall, need to sell more goods to pay fixed interest payments and principal, which can lead to bankruptcy Let’s say that when I make this loan to you, you believe that the price of your pen will sell for $2 per pen. So, you expect that you will need to sell 1,000 pens to pay me back. Under those conditions, you think that this is a good deal. With the loan, you can make capital improvements, and you can sell 1,000 pens in the future to raise the money to pay me back. Now let’s say there is deflation and prices fall by 50%. That is not a realistic deflation figure, but it makes the math easy and the example punchy. Now, with deflation, the price of the pen is $1, instead of the $2 per pen that you expected. This means that you need to sell 2,000 pens to pay me back. You need to sell twice as many pens to pay me back the $2,000 that you owe me. The real burden of the debt has gone up and that extra burden could force you into bankruptcy. DEFLATION IS HARMFUL 1. Unexpected deflation increases real cost of debt and leads to inefficient bankruptcies. ■ Even if deflation does not lead to bankruptcy, it can complicate business deals and contracting. Even if it does not send you into bankruptcy, such a loss may discourage you from making additional investments, stymieing economic growth. And, if you default, then workers will be fired and the firm will not operate as it goes through a lengthy, inefficient bankruptcy process. I will not get paid back, which will hinder my ability to finance capital investment in other promising firms. All of these effects from unanticipated deflation will work to reduce potential output. DEFLATION IS HARMFUL 1. Unexpected deflation increases real cost of debt and leads to inefficient bankruptcies. ■ Even if deflation does not lead to bankruptcy, it can complicate business deals and contracting. 2. Deflation leads people and firms to postpone capital expenditures in sub-optimal, inefficient ways. A second way that deflation can harm output is as follows. When firms expect prices to drop, they may postpone capital expenditures. Thus, they might not make investments at the most efficient times with respect to production because the firms are not only worried about efficient production. They are strategizing about deflation too. In NOT making the investment at the most productive time, this hurts productivity; it reduces “A” in the Solow Model, and potential output falls. DEFLATION IS HARMFUL Solow Growth Model y y=A0f(k) y0 y=A1f(k) (δ+n)k y1 sA0f(k) sA1f(k) k1 k0 k This figure illustrates the impact of deflation on potential output in the Solow Model. By messing-up what people do, deflation hurts productivity. More specifically, by inducing people and firms to delay purchases in sub-optimal, inefficient ways, this reduces productivity and efficiency—A in the Solow Model—and lowers output. WHY DOES HIGH INFLATION HAPPEN? Why Does High Inflation Happen? UNDERSTANDING CAUSES OF INFLATION Policy and Business Implications: 1. Identify which policy reforms are necessary to stop inflation and increase potential output 2. Make better investment decisions In this video, we address the question: why does high inflation happen? Since inflation is bad for potential output, why do some countries choose to have high inflation anyway? Addressing this question has both policy and business implications. On policy implications, by figuring out why inflation happens, we also identify what types of policy reforms are necessary to stop it and increase potential output. On business implications, by figuring out why inflation happens and which policies will stop it, we can make better investment decisions. Since high inflation slows growth and hurts business returns, we can make better investment decisions today if we know whether a country’s policy reform will—or will not—end inflation and boost returns. THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY M x V = P x Y M: Quantity of money V: Velocity of circulation P: Price level Y: Output A simple answer about the cause of inflation emerges from the quantity theory of money. That simple answer is the following: rapid growth in the money supply tends to produce a rapid increase in prices. We need to spend a little time developing the quantity theory of money to see more concretely how and under which conditions money growth causes inflation. The quantity theory is based on the insight that people hold money to buy goods and services. If we are in a monetary exchange economy, then all transactions involve money. Every time somebody buys food, they exchange money for food. When people buy education, they exchange money for education. In a monetary exchange economy, there is no barter. People do not buy food by giving the grocer a lecture on inflation, and people do not trade pens for computers. THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY Equation 1: M x V = P x Y 1T Food ation Educ rs pute Com 1T 1T …. l: Tota llion ri t 1 2 M: Quantity of money V: Velocity of circulation P: Price level Y: Output P GDP This definition of a monetary exchange economy leads to equation number one, which is the quantity theory of money. The right hand side of equation 1 is the value of all of the goods and services traded in our monetary exchange economy over a particular time period, say a year. You can think of this in two ways. One, you can think of the right hand side as summing up the value of all transactions involving food, education, pens, computers, and everything else that is produced and sold in this economy during the year. So, you multiply the price of food times the quantity of food, the price of computers times the quantity of computers, etc. After you get done summing up everything, that is the right hand side of the quantity equation. The right hand side equals nominal GDP as long as everything that is bought and sold is bought and sold with money. The other way that you can think of the right-hand-side of equation 1 is slightly more abstract but fully consistent with the Solow Model. You can think of there being one good—the GDP good, Y—and it has a price, P, the GDP deflator. Then, the value of all of the stuff traded in this monetary exchange economy is simply the price of the good, P, times the amount of the GDP good traded, Y. This abstraction is what we used in the Solow model, where there is just one output, Y. So, this second way of thinking about the right-hand-side of equation 1 might be very familiar. Whichever way you think about it, the right-hand-side is the value of everything traded in the economy. For this example, we can use the U.S. dollar as the unit of account that defines the value of the stuff that is traded in this economy. THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY Equation 1: M x V = P x Y Economy 1: M: Quantity of money V: Velocity of circulation P: Price level Y: Output Economy 2: The left-hand-side of equation simply says that in a monetary exchange economy, each transaction involves money. The left-hand-side, represents the money part of each transaction and the right-hand-side represents the goods or services part of each transaction. Every transaction involves a trade of money for goods or services; therefore the left-hand-side equals the right-hand-side. Let’s be more specific about the left-hand-side. The left-hand-side equals the stock of money in the economy times the number of times that the average dollar is used in transactions. This velocity term can be confusing, but it simply captures the following intuition. Think of two economies in which exactly the same amount of stuff is traded. In one economy there are lots of dollar bills. In the second economy, there are fewer dollars than the first economy. So, in the first economy with lots of dollars, each dollar is, on average, involved in fewer transactions than the second economy where there are fewer dollars. In the first economy which has more dollars but the same number of transactions as the second economy, more dollars are just hanging around and not involved in many transactions. Thus, economists use the term velocity to communicate how often the average dollar is used in a transaction. THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY Equation 1: M x V = P x Y Economy 1: M: Quantity of money V: Velocity of circulation P: Price level Y: Output Economy 2: Returning to equation 1, what we are saying is that if the right-hand-side is constant in the two economies, so that PY is the same, then, the first economy has lots of M, but each dollar is used less so the economy has smaller V. THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY Equation 1: M x V = P x Y Economy 1: M: Quantity of money V: Velocity of circulation P: Price level Y: Output Economy 2: The second economy has less M, so each dollar is used in more transactions, meaning V is larger. THE QUANTITY THEORY OF MONEY 0 0 Equation 2: gM + gV ≡ gP + gY M: Quantity of money V: Velocity of circulation P: Price level Y: Output ■ If V and Y are constant, then money growth gM translates directly into inflation (gP). With a little manipulation, we can also write the quantity theory of money in terms of growth rates. The quantity theory, which is depicted again in equation 1, has the level money, the level of velocity, the level of prices, and the level of output. The growth rate version of the quantity theory has the growth rate of money—which is gM, the growth rate of velocity—which is gV, the growth rate of prices—which is inflation and is given by gP, and the growth rate of output—which is gY. Equation 2 is very useful. It shows that if the growth rate of velocity and the growth rate of output are zero, then money growth translates directly into inflation. 2007-2016 AVERAGE MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH AND INFLATION (123 COUNTRIES) Source: Mankiw, N. G. (2019). Macroeconomics (10th ed.). Macmillan Learning. This graph documents the relation between the inflation rate and money growth for many countries. There is one green square per country. The vertical axis measures the average annual inflation rate of the country over the period from 2007 through 2016. The horizontal axis measures the average annual growth rate of money over the same period. If velocity and output growth were constant, then all of these green points would fall along a line where inflation equals money growth. We see that money growth and inflation are positively related. Indeed, the correlation is 70%. This suggests that inflation and money growth move closely together. Critically, we do not observe very high inflation rates without very fast money growth rates. This suggests that one of the major reasons that countries have very high inflation rates is that they choose very high money growth rates. Of course, inflation and money growth are not perfectly correlated. This tells us that countries experience growth in real output and velocity. WHY DOES HIGH INFLATION HAPPEN? Governments use central banks to print money so they can spend more than they are willing or able to tax or borrow. Governments finance spending with: Taxes Borrowing (future taxes or money printing) Central Bank Printing money (Seigniorage) The quantity theory offers a simple answer to the question: Why do some countries have high inflation? The answer is they choose rapid money growth rates. This answer is a bit unsatisfying because it leads to another question: Why do some countries choose rapid money growth rates that in turn lead to high inflation? A more fundamental answer to the question of what causes high inflation is that governments use central banks to print money so that governments can buy stuff. When governments spend more than they are willing or able to tax or borrow and the central bank prints up money to fill that gap, this leads to rapid money growth and inflation. Let’s go through that step-by-step. Governments can finance spending in three ways: First, they can tax the public directly. These taxes might include income taxes, real estate taxes, corporate taxes, sales taxes, etc. There are many forms of taxation. A second way that governments can finance spending is by borrowing. So, governments can sell bonds to the public and use the proceeds from those bond sales to buy stuff, whether it is roads and bridges, tanks and jets, or payments for schools and education. When governments borrow to pay for current expenditures, they will then have to raise revenues in the future to pay back those bonds. A third way that governments can finance spending is by printing money. They have central banks print the money to pay for the roads and bridges, tanks and jets, and schools. When governments finance their spending by printing money, this is called seigniorage. Thus, rapidly creating money to pay for government expenditures can lead to inflation as noted by the quantity theory. Thus, at a more fundamental level, it is not the printing of money that causes inflation; it is the political forces that cause a government to spend more than it is willing or able to tax or borrow and that therefore spur the central bank to print lots of money. These analyses lead to insights about addressing high inflation and these insights are relevant for investors. HOW TO ADDRESS HIGH INFLATION? A Simple Answer: ■ Stop printing so much money More Fundamental Answer: ■ Address the fiscal pressures that generate excessive money growth At a simple level, the way to address high inflation is to stop printing so much money. Starting from this perspective, policymakers sometimes indicate that they plan to address inflation by reducing the growth rate of the money supply. In many contexts, central bankers will attempt to signal their commitment to slowing the growth rate of money by adopting a new currency. This currency might have a different color and size from the old currency and the new currency will definitely have pictures of different distinguished presidents and leaders in order to signal the central bank’s commitment to slower money growth and slower inflation. Investors, however, might be wary of such promises. Unless the policymakers address the underlying motivations for fast money growth, promises of slower money growth, even if accompanied by a new currency, may only lead to fleeting effects on inflation. Without getting at the fundamental causes of fast money growth, slowing money growth might just be a temporary phenomenon that does not lead to long-term price stability, higher output, and greater investment returns. From this more fundamental perspective, the only way to fix very high inflation in the long-run and boost long-run potential output is to address the fiscal pressures that generate excessive money growth.