MARKETING RESEARCH This page is intentionally left blank MARKETING RESEARCH ELEVENTH EDITION DAVID A. AAKER E. T. Grether Professor of Marketing and Public Policy University of California, Berkeley V. KUMAR Richard and Susan Lenny Distinguished Chair Professor in Marketing, Director of the Marketing Ph.D. Program, and Executive Director, Center for Excellence in Brand and Customer Management Georgia State University ROBERT P. LEONE J. Vaughn and Evelyne H. Wilson Chair and Professor of Marketing Neeley School of Business, Texas Christian University GEORGE S. DAY Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor of Marketing, and Director of the Huntsman Center for Global Competition and Innovation Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Dedicated with love To my wife, Kay To my parents, Patta and Viswanathan my family—Aparna, Anita and Rohan, and Prita my sister Shanti, and her family, Prasad, Amritha and Deepa, my uncle, Kannan and, my in-laws, Dr. Lalitha and Ramamurthy To my wife, Teresa and my daughters—Amy and Casey To my wife, Alice VICE PRESIDENT AND EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER George Hoffman SENIOR ACQUISITIONS EDITOR Franny Kelly PROJECT EDITOR Brian Baker ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF MARKETING Amy Scholz MARKETING MANAGER Kelly Simmons MARKETING ASSISTANT Marissa Carroll PRODUCT DESIGNER Allison Morris MEDIA SPECIALIST Ethan Bernard ASSOCIATE PRODUCTION MANAGER Joyce Poh PHOTO DEPARTMENT MANAGER Hilary Newman COVER DESIGNER Wendy Lai COVER PHOTO Datacraft Co. Ltd./Getty Images, Inc. This book was set in 10/12 Palatino Roman by Aptara Corporation and printed and bound by Courier Westford. This book is printed on acid free paper. Copyright © 2013, 2010, 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, website www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, (201)748-6011, fax (201)748-6008, website http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. To order books or for customer service, please call 1-800-CALL WILEY (225-5945). Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Marketing research/David A. Aaker . . . [et al.]. — 11th ed. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-1-118-15663-6 (cloth) 1. Marketing research. I. Aaker, David A. HF5415.2.A14 2013 658.8’3—dc23 2012027801 Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PREFACE T he realm of marketing research truly flourishes as more data becomes available to marketers. Using data, companies continue to glean important insights that place them on the road to marketing and financial success. Ever since companies started to collect primary data through consumer surveys to help them plan marketing activities, the field of marketing research with respect to the data requirements has come a long way. The nature and type of data being collected now also includes scanner data, and more recently social media data. The survey and scanner data techniques have empowered companies to collect a wide range of customer information pertaining to attitudes, behaviors, and demographics. Ably supported by the growth of data analysis software (e.g., SAS, SPSS, R, etc.), and data storage and retrieval techniques (ranging from small databases to huge data farms), the area of marketing research has grown by leaps and bounds over the past decades. This growth has been accentuated by the declining data storage costs and the growing expanse of the Internet medium. These developments have enabled companies to invest in data now more than ever. These forces, coupled with the technology trends and the emergence of a global marketplace, require managers to take cognizance of the important role of marketing intelligence. Further, the customer level interactions on the Internet and the emergence of social networking as an important medium of marketing adds a new dimension to traditional marketing research intelligence. This new edition of Marketing Research brings to the forefront the relevance of marketing intelligence and the power of the Internet in marketing research applications by tracking recent developments in social media pertaining to the popularity of social coupons and the prevalence of social media marketing. If we can compare marketing to a long train with multiple compartments, then marketing research would justly claim the dual roles of the engine that powers the train and the links that connect the individual compartments to form a cohesive functional unit. In other words, marketing research is pervasive—the brain and the brawn of any marketing organization. Having said this, we realize that marketing research is a complex subject and therefore has to be introduced to the student one compartment at a time before the entire train can be visualized. We also realize the danger in this approach. The student can get overly excited or, even worse, overwhelmed by the individual units so that he or she fails to see the proverbial “big picture”—the overarching framework, the subtle but essential interactions between units, and the ultimate purpose, namely, how marketing research can help organizations achieve their goals. Hence, this text takes a “macro-micro-macro” approach toward communicating the intricacies of marketing research and its usefulness to the marketing organization. This revised edition, while maintaining the strengths of previous editions, focuses on the recent trends in marketing intelligence and explores how the popularity and spread of social media influences continue to have an enormous impact on marketing research applications. Topics of less interest and relevance to the practice of marketing and marketing research have been eliminated. New topics have been added to position this book as the necessary tool for successful marketing management in the twenty-first century. This edition, while building on the online marketing research content, tracks recent developments in the area of relationship marketing. Specific importance has been given to the concepts of Customer Lifetime Value, Mobile Marketing, Social Media Marketing and Experiential Marketing. Together, these address the advancement of marketing research to the forefront of business strategies that involve the increased effort to win customers’ share of purchases. v PREFACE We begin with a macro-level treatment of what marketing research is, where it fits within an organization, and how it helps in managerial decision making. Here, we also discuss the marketing research industry, with a brief treatment of both suppliers and users. The body of the text takes a micro-level approach, detailing each and every step of the marketing research process. In describing the marketing research process, a decision-oriented perspective has been adopted to help students, who are future managers and researchers, make better decisions. Detailed discussions of the process, with numerous examples from the industry, characterize this micro phase. Finally, we wrap up with a macro-level treatment of the applications of marketing research. Here we address the traditional 4P research, as well as contemporary issues such as brand equity, customer satisfaction research, and emerging issues that continue to fascinate marketers, such as e-commerce, direct marketing, database marketing, and relationship marketing, while taking care to incorporate some of the latest research and developments in these fields. OBJECTIVES OF THIS TEXT Our overall objectives in writing this text continue to be: 1. To emphasize the role of marketing intelligence in today’s world and to focus on the techniques and steps that show how a company can gather marketing intelligence and to examine its role in strategic decision making. 2. To communicate in an interesting and informative manner the essence of marketing research to “future managers” and “future researchers.” Both groups need to know when marketing research can and should be used, what research alternatives exist, how to recognize effective and ineffective research, and how to interpret and apply the results. 3. To illustrate the usefulness of the Internet, online marketing research, and other advances in technology and their applications. 4. To emphasize the current developments in marketing research, such as the distinction between domestic and international market research, the emphasis on customer value management, and the influence of social media. 5. To use examples, applications, and illustrations throughout the book, in an effort to tie the material to the real world and thus provide interest and better understanding to the student. 6. To discuss the fastest growing applications of marketing research, e-commerce, direct marketing, database marketing research, customer relationship management, and social networking and their impact on businesses. 7. To provide a clear and comprehensive treatment of modern data analysis topics. Each chapter includes simple numerical examples to help students get a hands-on feel for the material. 8. To provide thorough coverage of the most advanced and current marketing research methodologies, pointing out their limitations as well as their potential for enhancing research results. NEW TO THIS EDITION Consistent with these objectives, the eleventh edition has undergone some critical changes. The more prominent of these include: vi 1. The chapter on Marketing Research on the Internet has undergone a major revision with the addition of new material on topics such as Google Analytics, trends in on-line advertising spending, and changes in the international arena. 2. The chapter on Survey Methods has been revised to include the large number of selfenumeration survey methods that are now employed by marketing researchers including web-based surveys and email surveys that have replaced the more traditional mail surveys that have become less effective for many target respondents. PREFACE 3. The section on Special Topics in Data Analysis has undergone a major overhaul with increased focus provided to important univariate and multivariate data analysis techniques that are widely used in business applications. 4. The section on Applications of Marketing Intelligence has been revised and re-arranged along the lines of measures, metrics, and strategies that help companies in implementing the concepts of marketing research. 5. The chapter on Marketing-Mix Measures focuses on more recent advances in this area such as the development and use of dashboards, measuring advertising effectiveness across the new platform of choices available from TV to websites to social media opportunities. 6. The chapter on Brand and Customer Metrics reviews topics such as how to maximize customer profitability through customer selection, retention, referral programs and word of mouth. 7. The chapter on New Age Strategies contains material on topics such as mobile marketing, the use of social media in marketing (e.g. blogs, social networks, content communities, etc.). 8. Statistics and other trend information have been updated given new insights offered by the 2010 US Census. 9. New cases and study questions have been added. These relate to current problems facing marketing researchers, such as how to reach subjects by phone given the large number of people who no longer have land lines, the use of omnibus survey panels, focus group design, and web-based marketing research. 10. The text has also benefitted from additions and updates to new and emerging topics of interest and methods of practice in marketing research, such as maximizing customer profitability, social media marketing, and word-of-mouth marketing. 11. The web address www.wiley.com/college/aaker can be used for accessing information pertaining to the textbook and its contents. FEATURES OF THE BOOK 1. The text communicates in an interesting and informative manner the essence of marketing research to future managers and future researchers. Both groups need to know when marketing research can and should be used, what research alternatives exist, how to recognize effective and ineffective research, and how to interpret and apply the results. 2. The Cases and Part Cases are positioned appropriately at the end of chapters and text parts to stimulate interest, add realism to the marketing research curriculum, and help develop decision-making skills. These cases cover a wide range of products and organizations. 3. The chapter on A Decision-Making Perspective on Marketing Intelligence attempts to enlighten the readers of the importance and means of accessing data from multiple sources and delivering to end-users for analysis. 4. The chapter on Marketing Research on the Internet links the reader with the world of marketing research to keep abreast with the emerging trends and changes in the marketplace. 5. Discussion of the international element of marketing research has been continued. Particularly, an effort has been made to provide a clear distinction between the domestic and international marketing research processes and prepare the users of this text to face the challenges of multinational research. 6. The chapter on New Age Strategies reiterates the fact that understanding of the customer is the key to marketing success. The chapter focuses on the tools provided by marketing intelligence for better knowledge of customer profiles. The chapter also focuses on e-commerce, database marketing, relationship marketing and social networking. The growth in e-commerce is phenomenal and the firm’s ability to identify individuals and market to them is an important task. Database marketing is currently one of the most important tools for businesses facing the challenges of the twenty-first century. As firms shift their resources more towards targeted marketing, the discussion in this chapter becomes more valuable. vii PREFACE 7. Marketing Research in Action sections in various chapters have been updated to focus on the real world applications of Marketing Research. 8. Each chapter also includes Learning Objectives, a Chapter Summary, and Questions and Problems. ORGANIZATION OF THE TEXT The book is organized to reflect the “macro-micro-macro” approach towards imparting marketing research training to the student. The text consists of five parts. Parts I and V deal with the “macro” aspects of marketing research; Parts II, III, and IV deal with the micro aspects. Part I, consisting of four chapters, deals with the nature and scope of marketing intelligence and marketing research. Here, the overall framework of marketing research is presented, and where and how marketing research fits in with the other aspects of marketing is explained. The nature of the research industry and suppliers is also discussed here. Part II, consisting of Chapters 5 through 15, deals extensively with the various aspects of data collection. This part is further divided into four sections, one section devoted to each of the three fundamental types of marketing research: exploratory, descriptive, and causal. The final section addresses the issue of sampling. Part III, consisting of three chapters, discusses the fundamental aspects and techniques in data analysis. These include basic analysis issues such as data editing, coding, and simple techniques such as hypothesis testing, chi-square analysis, and the analysis of variance. Part IV is devoted exclusively to advanced and more sophisticated data analysis techniques such as correlation and regression analysis, discriminant analysis, factor analysis, cluster analysis, conjoint analysis, and multidimensional scaling. This part consists of four chapters, the last chapter dealing with the aspects of presenting the research results. In Part V, the student is exposed to the measures, metrics, and strategies of marketing intelligence. This section has three chapters and provides the student with a comprehensive picture of marketing research, highlighting how the marketing-mix measures, the brand and customer metrics, and the new age strategies fit into the application of marketing intelligence. SUPPLEMENTS TO THE TEXT ■ All relevant information pertaining to the textbook and its contents can be accessed from this website—www.wiley.com/college/aaker. This website will periodically update information that is relevant for keeping the text up to date. ■ An Instructor’s Manual will accompany this text. This manual provides solutions to endof-chapter Questions and Problems, and discusses all the test cases in greater detail. Exam questions are arranged by chapter, and include multiple-choice and true/false questions. An example of a course syllabus is presented, and many suggestions for the organization of the course are provided. This resource can be found on the Instructor Companion site. ■ A test bank has been added to the website, which provides sample test questions in each chapter. ■ PowerPoint presentations of selected material from each chapter are available. ■ Data sets that contain data for end-of-chapter cases and statistical analysis are available. SPSS®-interpreted examples are also available. viii PREFACE ■ The website also contains detailed information on the mini-project designed for students mentioned at the end of the eighth chapter. ■ End-of-chapter questions are also available on the website. ■ New Marketing Research Video Series: Brand new interview-style video clips of top marketing research companies. Each video, six to eight minutes in length, presents interviews with key personnel to discuss how they apply the major concepts of marketing research to their business. The Wiley Marketing Research Video Series can be accessed on the Instructor and Student Companion websites. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many debts have been accumulated over the years during which ten editions of this book have taken shape. We are especially grateful to our students, who gave us feedback from the consumer’s perspective and whose field research projects provided many of the illustrations and problems; to our colleagues, who stimulated us and brought new ideas and approaches to our attention; and to our clients, who gave us many opportunities to put ideas into practice and thus broaden our understanding of marketing research as it is currently practiced. It has been a continuing pleasure to associate with a class publisher, John Wiley & Sons, and to work with a number of Wiley editors over the years—Rich Esposito, John Woods, Tim Kent, Ellen Ford, Brent Gordon, as well as Jeff Marshal and Cindy Rhoads, Jayme Heffler and Jennifer Conklin, and most recently, Franny Kelly. A host of helpful and insightful reviews were received from Miodrag Lovric from University of Belgrade, Curt J. Dommeyer from California State University, S. Chan Choi of Rutgers Business School, Wayne A. Roberts, Jr. of Southern Utah University, L. J. Shrum of the University of Texas at San Antonio, Philip M. Hurdle of Elmira College, Michael R. Hyman of New Mexico State University, and Eric Vincent Carter of Oakland University. We also would like to express thanks to Bharath Rajan, A. J. Radcliffe and Sarang Sunder for their efforts towards the production of the eleventh edition. Finally, we wish to express our sincere appreciation to our families and friends for their constant support, encouragement, and sacrifices during the creation of this book. David A. Aaker V. Kumar Robert P. Leone George S. Day ix This page is intentionally left blank BRIEF CONTENTS PART I The Nature and Scope of Marketing Research Chapter 1 A Decision-Making Perspective on Marketing Intelligence, 1 Chapter 2 Marketing Research in Practice, 29 Chapter 3 The Marketing Research Process, 45 Chapter 4 Research Design and Implementation, 72 PART III Data Analysis Chapter 16 Fundamentals of Data Analysis, 403 PART II Data Collection PART IV Special Topics in Data Analysis Chapter 19 Correlation Analysis and Regression Analysis, 476 SECTION A Secondary and Exploratory Research Chapter 5 Secondary Sources of Marketing Data, 102 Chapter 6 Standardized Sources of Marketing Data, 126 Chapter 7 Marketing Research on the Internet, 152 Chapter 8 Information Collection: Qualitative and Observational Methods, 177 SECTION B Descriptive Research Chapter 9 Information from Respondents: Issues in Data Collection, 215 Chapter 10 Information from Respondents: Survey Methods, 231 Chapter 11 Attitude Measurement, 260 Chapter 12 Designing the Questionnaire, 288 Chapter 17 Hypothesis Testing: Basic Concepts and Tests of Associations, 422 Chapter 18 Hypothesis Testing: Means and Proportions, 440 Chapter 20 Discriminant, Factor, and Cluster Analysis, 506 Chapter 21 Multidimensional Scaling and Conjoint Analysis, 548 Chapter 22 Presenting the Results, 573 PART V Applications of Marketing Intelligence Chapter 23 Marketing-Mix Measures, 591 Chapter 24 Brand and Customer Metrics, 635 Chapter 25 New Age Strategies, 655 Appendix: Tables, 694 A-1. Standard Normal Probabilities, 694 A-2. X2 Critical Points, 695 A-3. F Critical Points, 697 A-4. t Critical Points, 702 SECTION C Causal Research Chapter 13 Experimentation, 323 A-5. Procedures for Conducting Univariate and Multivariate Analysis in SPSS, 703 A-6. Output of Select Tables in SPSS, 707 SECTION D Sampling Chapter 14 Sampling Fundamentals, 353 Chapter 15 Sample Size and Statistical Theory, 380 Glossary, 718 Index, 729 xi CONTENTS PART I THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF MARKETING RESEARCH CHAPTER 1 A Decision-Making Perspective on Marketing Intelligence, 1 End Notes, 44 Appendix: Marketing Research Jobs, 44 Learning Objectives, 1 An Overview of Business Intelligence, 1 CHAPTER 3 The Marketing Research Process, 45 Introduction to Marketing Intelligence, 3 Learning Objectives, 45 Overview of the Marketing Research Process, 45 The Preliminary Stages of the Marketing Research Process, 47 Planning a New HMO, 56 The International Marketing Research Process, 59 Summary, 62 Questions and Problems, 62 End Notes, 63 Appendix: The Value of Research Information Using Bayesian Decision Theory, 63 Case 3-1: A VideOcart Test for Bestway Stores, 66 Case 3-2: Sperry/MacLennan Architects and Planners, 67 Case 3-3: Philip Morris Enters Turkey, 70 Marketing Research, 6 Role of Marketing Research in Managerial Decision Making, 9 Factors That Influence Marketing Research Decisions, 17 Use of Marketing Research, 18 Ethics in Marketing Research, 19 The Respondent’s Ethics and Rights, 20 International Marketing Research, 22 Summary, 24 Questions and Problems, 24 End Notes, 24 Case 1-1: Preteen Market—The Right Place to Be In for Cell Phone Providers?, 26 Case 1-2: Best Buy on a Segmentation Spree, 26 Case 1-3: Ethical Dilemmas in Marketing Research, 28 CHAPTER 2 Marketing Research in Practice, 29 Learning Objectives, 29 Information System, Decision Support Systems, and Marketing Research, 30 Marketing Decision Support Systems, 32 Suppliers of Information, 36 Criteria for Selecting External Suppliers, 41 The International Marketing Research Industry, 41 Career Opportunities in Marketing Research, 42 Summary, 43 Questions and Problems, 44 xii CHAPTER 4 Research Design and Implementation, 72 Learning Objectives, 72 Research Approach, 74 Research Tactics and Implementation, 80 Budgeting and Scheduling the Research Project, 82 Research Proposal, 83 Designing International Marketing Research, 86 Issues in International Research Design, 87 Summary, 89 Questions and Problems, 90 End Notes, 90 Appendix: Errors in Research Design, 90 Case 4-1: Reynolds Tobacco’s Slide-Box Cigarettes, 92 Case 4-2: California Foods Corporation, 96 PART II Case for Part I, 99 Case I-1: Clover Valley Dairy Company, 99 DATA COLLECTION SECTION A: SECONDARY AND EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CHAPTER 5 Secondary Sources of Marketing Data, 102 Learning Objectives, 102 Secondary Data, 102 Uses of Secondary Data, 103 Benefits of Secondary Data, 104 Limitations of Secondary Data, 104 Internal Sources of Secondary Data, 105 External Sources of Secondary Data, 107 Census Data, 112 North American Industry Classification System, 114 Appraising Secondary Sources, 115 Applications of Secondary Data, 116 Sources of Secondary Data for International Marketing Research, 119 Problems Associated with Secondary Data in International Research, 120 Applications of Secondary Data in International Research, 120 Summary, 121 Questions and Problems, 122 End Notes, 122 Case 5-1: Barkley Foods, 123 Case 5-2: Dell in Latin America?, 124 Case 5-3: Eddie Bauer: Strategize with Secondary Marketing Data, 124 CHAPTER 6 Standardized Sources of Marketing Data, 126 Learning Objectives, 126 Retail Store Audits, 127 Consumer Purchase Panels, 127 Scanner Services and Single-Source Systems, 131 Media-Related Standardized Sources, 137 Applications of Standardized Sources of Data, 140 Summary, 141 Questions and Problems, 141 End Notes, 142 Case 6-1: Promotion of Rocket Soups, 143 Case 6-2: Kerry Gold Products, Ltd., 144 Case 6-3: Paradise Foods, 144 CHAPTER 7 Marketing Research on the Internet, 152 Learning Objectives, 152 Current Trends in Web Usage, 152 WWW Information for Marketing Decisions, 154 The Internet and Marketing Research Today, 158 The Internet and Marketing Research Developments, 168 Issues and Concerns, 171 Summary, 174 Questions and Problems, 174 End Notes, 175 Case 7-1: Caring Children’s Hospital, 176 CHAPTER 8 Information Collection: Qualitative and Observational Methods, 177 Learning Objectives, 177 Need for Qualitative Research, 177 Qualitative Research Methods, 178 Observational Methods, 197 Recent Applications of Qualitative and Observational Methods, 202 Summary, 204 Questions and Problems, 204 End Notes, 205 Appendix: Myths of Qualitative Research: It’s Conventional, But Is It Wisdom?, 207 Case 8-1: Mountain Bell Telephone Company, 209 Case 8-2: U.S. Department of Energy (A), 211 Case 8-3: Acura, 211 Case 8-4: Exploratory Research on the Lleyton Hewitt National Visa Card, 212 Case 8-5: Hamilton Beach Conducts Primary Research in Mexico and Europe, 213 Mini Project, 214 xiii SECTION B: DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH CHAPTER 9 Information from Respondents: Issues in Data Collection, 215 Learning Objectives, 215 Information from Surveys, 215 Sources of Survey Error, 216 Methods of Data Collection, 221 Factors Affecting the Choice of a Survey Method, 221 Ethical Issues in Data Collection, 225 Summary, 227 Questions and Problems, 227 End Notes, 228 Case 9-1: Essex Markets, 229 Case 9-2: More Ethical Dilemmas in Marketing Research, 229 CHAPTER 10 Information from Respondents: Survey Methods, 231 Learning Objectives, 231 Collecting Data, 231 Surveys in the International Context, 251 Summary, 254 Questions and Problems, 255 End Notes, 256 Case 10-1: Roland Development Corp., 257 Questionnaire Design for International Research, 306 Summary, 308 Questions and Problems, 309 End Notes, 312 Case 12-1: Wine Horizons, 313 Case 12-2: Smith’s Clothing (A), 315 Case 12-3: Compact Lemon, 316 Case 12-4: Project DATA: An Urban Transportation Study, 316 SECTION C: CAUSAL RESEARCH CHAPTER 13 Experimentation, 323 Learning Objectives, 323 Descriptive versus Experimental Research, 324 What Constitutes Causality?, 325 Laboratory and Field Experiments, 327 Threats to Experimental Validity, 327 Issues in Experimental Research, 330 Types of Experimental Designs, 332 Guidelines for Conducting Experimental Research, 345 Limitations of Experiments, 346 Summary, 348 Questions and Problems, 349 End Notes, 350 Case 13-1: Evaluating Experimental Designs, 350 Case 13-2: Barrie Food Corporation, 351 CHAPTER 11 Attitude Measurement, 260 Learning Objectives, 260 What Are Attitudes?, 261 The Concept of Measurement and Scaling, 262 Types of Attitude Rating Scales, 265 General Guidelines for Developing a Multiple-Item Scale, 276 Interpreting Attitude Scales, 277 Choosing an Attitudinal Scale, 278 Accuracy of Attitude Measurements, 280 Scales in Cross-National Research, 283 Summary, 283 Questions and Problems, 284 End Notes, 285 Case 11-1: National Kitchens, 286 SECTION D: SAMPLING CHAPTER 14 Sampling Fundamentals, 353 Learning Objectives, 353 Sample or Census, 353 Sampling Process, 354 Probability Sampling, 360 Nonprobability Sampling, 366 Shopping Center Sampling, 370 Sampling in the International Context, 372 Summary, 374 Questions and Problems, 375 End Notes, 376 Case 14-1: Exercises in Sample Design, 377 Case 14-2: Talbot Razor Products Company, 378 CHAPTER 12 Designing the Questionnaire, 288 Learning Objectives, 288 Planning What to Measure, 289 Formatting the Question, 291 Question Wording: A Problem of Communication, 296 Sequence and Layout Decisions, 300 xiv CHAPTER 15 Sample Size and Statistical Theory, 380 Learning Objectives, 380 Determining the Sample Size: Ad Hoc Methods, 380 Population Characteristics/Parameters, 382 Sample Characteristics/Statistics, 383 Sample Reliability, 384 Interval Estimation, 386 Sample Size Question, 387 Proportions, 389 Coefficient of Variation, 390 Stratified Sampling, 392 Multistage Design, 393 Sequential Sampling, 393 Part III Learning Objectives, 403 Preparing the Data for Analysis, 404 Strategy for Data Analysis, 408 Cross-Tabulations, 411 Factors Influencing the Choice of Statistical Technique, 413 An Overview of Statistical Techniques, 415 Summary, 419 Questions and Problems, 419 End Notes, 420 Appendix: Choice of a Statistical Package, 421 CHAPTER 17 Hypothesis Testing: Basic Concepts and Tests of Associations, 422 Learning Objectives, 422 The Logic of Hypothesis Testing, 423 Steps in Hypothesis Testing, 424 Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing, 424 Cross-Tabulation and Chi-Square, 428 Summary, 436 Questions and Problems, 436 End Notes, 437 Case 17-1: Medical Systems Associates: Measuring Patient Satisfaction, 437 Case II-1: Currency Concepts International, 397 Appendix: Interview Guide for International Travelers (U.S. Citizens), 402 CHAPTER 18 Hypothesis Testing: Means and Proportions, 440 Learning Objectives, 440 Commonly Used Hypothesis Tests in Marketing Research, 440 Relationship between Confidence Interval and Hypothesis Testing, 443 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), 445 The Probability-Values (p-Values) Approach to Hypothesis Testing, 457 Effect of Sample Size and Interpretation of Test Results, 458 Summary, 459 Questions and Problems, 459 End Notes, 460 Case 18-1: American Conservatory Theater, 461 Case 18-2: Apple Appliance Stores, 463 Cases for Part III, 464 Case III-1: The Vancouver Symphony Orchestra, 464 Case III-2: Popular Pizzas: Identifying Consumer Preferences, 471 SPECIAL TOPICS IN DATA ANALYSIS CHAPTER 19 Correlation Analysis and Regression Analysis, 476 Learning Objectives, 476 Correlation Analysis, 477 Regression Analysis, 481 Summary, 499 Case for Part II, 397 DATA ANALYSIS CHAPTER 16 Fundamentals of Data Analysis, 403 PART IV Summary, 394 Questions and Problems, 394 End Notes, 396 Questions and Problems, 500 End Notes, 502 Case 19-1: The Seafood Grotto, 502 Case 19-2: Ajax Advertising Agency, 503 Case 19-3: Election Research, Inc., 504 xv CHAPTER 20 Discriminant, Factor, and Cluster Analysis, 506 Learning Objectives, 506 Discriminant Analysis, 506 Multiple Discriminant Analysis, 515 Summary of Discriminant Analysis, 518 Factor and Cluster Analysis, 518 Factor Analysis, 519 Summary of Factor Analysis, 528 Cluster Analysis, 530 Summary of Cluster Analysis, 540 Questions and Problems, 540 End Notes, 541 Case 20-1: Southwest Utility, 542 Case 20-2: Store Image Study, 543 Case 20-3: Behavioral Research, 545 CHAPTER 21 Multidimensional Scaling and Conjoint Analysis, 548 Learning Objectives, 548 Multidimensional Scaling, 548 Attribute-Based Approaches, 548 Summary of MDS, 557 PART V CHAPTER 22 Presenting the Results, 573 Learning Objectives, 573 Guidelines for Successful Presentations, 573 Written Report, 579 Oral Presentation, 583 Relationship with the Client, 586 Summary, 586 Questions and Problems, 586 End Notes, 586 Cases for Part IV, 587 Case IV-1: Smith’s Clothing (B), 587 Case IV-2: Newfood, 587 APPLICATIONS OF MARKETING INTELLIGENCE CHAPTER 23 Marketing-Mix Measures, 591 Learning Objectives, 591 New-Product Research, 592 Pricing Research, 602 Distribution Research, 603 Promotion Research, 610 Total Quality Management, 620 Information Requirements for Total Quality Management, 621 Summary, 627 Questions and Problems, 628 End Notes, 629 Case 23-1: Brown Microwave, 631 Case 23-2: National Chemical Corporation, 632 Case 23-3: U.S. Department of Energy (B), 632 Case 23-4: Hokey Pokey is Born in India, 633 xvi Conjoint Analysis, 558 Summary of Conjoint Analysis, 565 Questions and Problems, 565 End Notes, 566 Case 21-1: Nester’s Foods, 567 Case 21-2: Pepsi-Cola, 568 Case 21-3: The Electric Truck Case, 571 Case 21-4: Fargo Instruments, 572 CHAPTER 24 Brand and Customer Metrics, 635 Learning Objectives, 635 Competitive Advantage, 635 Brand Equity, 637 Customer Satisfaction, 643 Customer Satisfaction Measurement Process, 645 Contemporary Applications of Marketing Intelligence, 649 Maximizing Customer Profitability, 650 Summary, 653 Questions and Problems, 653 End Notes, 654 CHAPTER 25 New Age Strategies, 655 Learning Objectives, 655 Database Marketing, 656 E-Commerce, 665 Mobile Marketing, 669 Social Marketing, 672 Experiential Marketing, 676 Relationship Marketing, 677 Recent Developments in Relationship Marketing, 678 Word-of-Mouth Marketing, 683 Customer Intelligence, 685 Summary, 689 Questions and Problems, 689 End Notes, 690 Appendix: Forecasting, 690 End Notes for Appendix, 693 Appendix: Tables, 694 A-1. Standard Normal, Cumulative Probability in Right-Hand Tail for Positive Values of z; Areas Are Formed by Symmetry, 694 A-2. X2 Critical Points, 695 A-3. F Critical Points, 697 A-4. t Cut-off Points for the Student’s t-Distribution, 702 A-5. Procedures for Conducting Univariate and Multivariate Analysis in SPSS, 703 A-6. Output of Select Tables in SPSS, 707 Glossary, 718 Index, 729 xvii This page is intentionally left blank A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE 1 Learning Objectives ■ Understand the concept of business intelligence. ■ Understand the need and use of marketing intelligence in an organization. ■ Comprehend how marketing intelligence fits in the bigger scheme of the marketing environment. ■ Explain the role of marketing intelligence in decision making. ■ Discuss the factors that affect marketing intelligence decisions. ■ Understand the implication of ethical issues in gathering marketing intelligence. AN OVERVIEW OF BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE As they manage their businesses and compete in a global market, decision makers face many questions every day. Is the business healthy? Who are my best customers? What supplier should I choose? Where are we quarter-to-date? Do we deliver products consistently on time? Do we have the right mix of people? Effectively managing the performance of the business means knowing what questions to ask and having the facts readily at hand to answer them. This is what business intelligence (BI) delivers. BI, at its core, is the ability to access data from multiple sources within an enterprise and deliver it to business users for analysis.1 BI bridges the gap between disparate operational systems and data-hungry end users. It connects people to their business. It creates an information environment that makes it easy for people to get the reports they need in the context of their day-to-day activities. It provides an accessible means of analyzing the business and getting to the bottom of what’s behind trends and anomalies. And, it offers a reliable barometer of how well the business is performing. The following examples give a flavor of the possibilities BI offers. Erlanger (Ky.) Police Department2 In a novel attempt at fighting crime, the Erlanger, Ky., police department has developed a new portal that helps its officers to track and solve crimes. Developed in September 2008, the portal combines concepts from business intelligence, searching and mapping. This Web-based BI portal allows patrol officers to enter data—or even pieces of data such as a few numbers from a license plate—into a simple search interface and retrieve information from their own databases and those of neighboring towns. This solution was developed to address the long standing issue of an unified communications network bridging the fire and police departments. Specifically, the Erlanger Police Department could not tap into the records management systems of 19 separate government agencies in order to search and analyze information about suspects, reported incidents, arrests and crimes. 1 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE In order to develop this software, the department bought a readily available software that has geo-mapping and BI features and added an open-source search, which compiles structured and unstructured data references into an index that can easily be searched by an appliance. This final software categorized search results to give users a better context and relevancy for search queries. This Web-based software combined real-time crime data from multiple agencies with crime records and incident reports stretching back five years to link information about suspects, incidents and arrests. This software was able to completely search the records management systems and, create maps and information that helped officers perform their duties. This software enabled officers to see over the last 24 hours where calls have occurred and compare crime stats against last year’s data and this year’s data. The department believes that the software’s success will be judged in part by whether the department can continue to handle the 5 percent to 10 percent annual increase in calls to the communications center while maintaining its recent 1 percent to 2 percent annual rate of increase in crimes solved—all without having to add more personnel. Mozilla Firefox3 Mozilla Labs, the research wing of Mozilla Corp., is planning observational studies aimed at 1 percent of Firefox users. The study, which will have users volunteering, intends to look at how users utilise the browser, and the Web in general. This type of sample set, Mozilla believes, will be a representative sample as against depending on the “early adopters.” A unique feature of such a study is that owing to the open source format of the browser, everything participating users send has to be, and will be, published in human-readable format. Still in the planning stages, the study will involve launching a Firefox add-on that can help collect browsing and usage data, and provide tools to answer feedback questions. The type of data Mozilla wishes to collect is restricted to demographic information, such as their technical level and geographic location. Further, they are interested in the number of times users visit a particular Website, and not the actual Website. Some of the specific questions that Mozilla wants to find an answer for are, How do people multitask in the browser? What works and what does not? How do users use tabs, and when do they chat in the background? The benefits derived from the launch of Firefox 3.0, an advanced version of Firefox 2.0, seems to led to this study initiative. A key upgrade in Firefox 3.0 is that the Back button grew in size, compared to the earlier version. The reason for this change was from the finding that people used the Back button much more than the Forward button. However, Mozilla believes that the decision would have been easier if they had then had a large pool of testers, and more data on when users hit the Back button or the Forward button. Recent Trends in Business Intelligence Business intelligence tools and systems play a key role in the strategic planning process of a firm. These systems allow the firm to gather, store, access, and analyze corporate data to aid in decision making. The science of BI is being utilized by specialists in different business fields today. Business intelligence comprises several components—financial intelligence, marketing intelligence, accounting intelligence, and management intelligence among others, as shown in Figure 1-1. Financial intelligence provides consultancy, forward looking financial accounting and procurement systems, strategic business intelligence, and support. To quote the words of an industry executive, “Financial intelligence works by empowering the CFO to make critical and successful decisions, giving the CIO current yet reliable technology and the CEO quality time to think strategically.” Accounting and management intelligence incorporate the tools and techniques of the respective fields. In this book, we are interested in the marketing intelligence component of business intelligence. 2 INTRODUCTION TO MARKETING INTELLIGENCE Business Intelligence Financial Intelligence Management Intelligence Marketing Intelligence Accounting Intelligence Customer Relationship Marketing/ Database Marketing Marketing Research Primary Sources Secondary Sources Standardized Sources Provide data on Prospects Customers Competition Products/Markets FIGURE 1-1 Typical areas under the umbrella of business intelligence. INTRODUCTION TO MARKETING INTELLIGENCE According to American Marketing Association, marketing is defined as the activity, set of institutions, and processes for creating, communicating, delivering, and exchanging offerings that have value for customers, clients, partners, and society at large.4 The marketing concept does not focus on one aspect of marketing, but recognizes the roles of non-marketers in the marketing process such as customers, vendors, or external agencies who regulate marketing. While marketing centers around satisfying customer needs, an organization would often face the requirement of obtaining information on customer needs. Marketing intelligence helps organizations in this process and revolves around gathering customer level information that would assist in business decision making and policy analysis. What Is Marketing Intelligence? Market intelligence (MI) is “the process of acquiring and analyzing information in order to understand the market (both existing and potential customers); to determine the current and future needs and preferences, attitudes and behavior of the market; and to assess changes in the business environment that may affect the size and nature of the market in future.”5 Marketing Intelligence has the capacity to be at the forefront in contributing to the development of a business environment through strategic research, risk and policy analysis, creditrating documentation, storage, publication, reporting, and communication of reliable, timely, and objective business information. It incorporates information from customer analysis and industry analysis as well as general market conditions. 3 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE In other words, marketing intelligence calls for understanding, analyzing and assessing the internal and external environment related to a company’s customers, competitors, markets, and industry to enhance the decision-making process. This would require the integration of competitive intelligence, marketing research, market analysis, and business and financial analysis information.6 Components of Marketing Intelligence Marketing intelligence primarily focuses on creation and management of profitable long-term relationships with customers with an emphasis on the use of information and communication technologies in researching, selecting, entering, and competing in global markets. As shown in Figure 1-1, the various components of marketing intelligence can be included under two main areas—marketing research and customer relationship marketing/database marketing. Marketing research focuses primarily on the collection and use of information on customers and their needs for designing marketing programs. Marketing data can be collected from primary, secondary, and standardized sources. Data analysis in marketing research uses the data on prospects, customers, competition, products, and markets while incorporating marketing concepts, methods, and quantitative tools, to make meaningful decisions with regard to marketing campaigns, resource allocation, and the managerial planning process. Customer relationship management/database marketing integrates information on customer buying behavior and motivation obtained from a firm’s database and market research. This information aids the firm to manage the offers made to its customers (both current and new products and services), in order to acquire new customers, and satisfy and retain existing customers in a profitable manner. Need for Marketing Intelligence Marketing research plays a critical part in a marketing intelligence system. It aids in improving management decision making by providing relevant, accurate, and timely information. The following examples provide a flavor of marketing research in action. ■ The Subaru Outback was introduced in April 2000. The car was positioned in-between station wagons and compact SUVs, based on findings that the sizeable male-dominated segment needs were not met by either station wagons or SUVs. Following one of its best years in U.S. sales in 2006, Subaru developed an all 4-wheel-drive lineup. This positioning is a shift from its prominent truck-based SUV designs—sales of which had begun to slow. In volatile markets, Subaru introduced the B9 Tribeca which looked like a mid-sized SUV but was based on a car platform, taking advantage of a sweet spot between the two segments. ■ The iPod, Apple Inc.’s brand of portable music players was introduced in 2001 with revolutionary design and technology that would leverage on the brand exclusivity of the existing iMac computers. Despite emerging the market leader and surpassing the 100 million units sold milestone by 2007, Apple realized that the portable music device market was maturing. The introduction of the iPhone has been as a key to maintaining sales volumes and sustaining Apple’s dominant position in the portable music device market. Apple’s iPhone has been able to capitalize on the successful design of the iPod, already well received by their customer base, and to exercise their strength in innovation.7 ■ A major pharmaceutical company provides its sales personnel with up-to-date information on its products including relevant media and news clips, professional profiles, and order history of the clients they are about to visit. All these examples point to the need for marketing intelligence because: ■ Producers have little direct contact with consumers (geographical distance and channel layers). ■ Channels have little knowledge about customer attitudes, preference, and changing tastes. 4 ■ Need to understand competition without spying on them. INTRODUCTION TO MARKETING INTELLIGENCE ■ Management goals involve sales targets and market share achievement. ■ Need to identify successful new product developments early in the process to ensure growth and revenue maximization by finding a balance between costs and prices of products. ■ The future is uncertain, yet, businesses do need to anticipate the future. The need is to look at least up to 5–10 years in advance. Pharmaceutical companies do it on a regular basis because they have to plan for what happens when a particular patent expires. Table 1-1 lists the various areas where marketing intelligence is applied. Traditional forecasting involves extrapolating from the present. The problem with this approach is that the further forward one goes, the greater the error—thus, the greater the risk of a mistake. Three examples illustrate the problem of anticipating the future. In 1943, Thomas Watson, then chairman of IBM, forecasted a world market for about five computers. In 1970, Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said no one needed to have a personal computer at home. In 1981, Microsoft’s founder Bill Gates said that 640 K would be enough memory for anyone. According to AWARE, a marketing intelligence services company, Scenario Planning is a technique that overcomes these problems. It is a methodology that allows practitioners to prepare for the future by looking at trends in the present and mapping how these interrelate with each other. From this study, a number of scenarios picturing possible future worlds are drafted, along with a description of how these futures could arise. Businesses then plan around these— with contingency plans for undesirable elements. Key change indicators are monitored and used to gauge how events are turning out. Companies using the technique have reported remarkable successes—the oil company Shell, for example, predicted the Oil Crisis of the 1970s, and the changes that took place prior to and immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. TABLE 1-1 Domains of Marketing Intelligence ■ Product decisions Marketing intelligence helps in making decisions on investing in new products and also in optimizing product specifications or offering to target customer groups. ■ Customer segmentation decisions Marketing intelligence gives an opportunity for companies to study the impact of advertisements— before and after advertisements. Based on research and audience composition, marketing intelligence gives companies the flexibility to choose advertising media. Finally, MI also gives companies enough information for selection of target segments. ■ Brand and pricing decisions Marketing intelligence helps decision makers in building brand equity and consciousness among the targeted customer segments. Gathering marketing intelligence also helps capture popular perceptions and changing trends, tastes, and lifestyles. ■ Keeping stakeholders happy Understanding stakeholder needs and responding to them keeps all stakeholders—customers, channels, and suppliers—satisfied. A satisfied customer is a profitable customer. ■ Market estimation, competitive benchmarking, and distribution Marketing intelligence also helps in quantitative analysis of market forces—estimating size of the market, quantitative and behavioral analysis of the market, and forecasting future trends/needs. Marketing intelligence also helps in market share analyses. In short, the domains of marketing intelligence application appear vast and include identifying marketing opportunities to build profitable businesses; developing and using marketing intelligence; designing the marketing mix; acquiring and retaining customers; and planning, organizing, evaluating, and controlling market performance. Judicious gathering of marketing intelligence helps companies to walk up the marketing thinking ladder by explaining how to grasp and outperform consumer value migration and hence to make more money by adding more value to existing brands. Outcome is simply more consumeroriented businesses. 5 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE The different functions under marketing intelligence are all interrelated in the sense that the data collected using various techniques in marketing research are then analyzed and interpreted to improve the efficient management of customer–firm relationships, and the knowledge and experience created from these fields can be used to effectively manage new product development and marketing. Customer relationship marketing/database marketing will be covered briefly in the last chapter. But we delve into the marketing research arm of marketing intelligence for the most part of our discussion in this book. MARKETING RESEARCH Any marketing organization should have a marketing intelligence system in place that helps them obtain information on consumer needs and gathers marketing intelligence that will help them understand how to satisfy these needs efficiently. Each decision a company makes poses unique needs for information gathered through marketing research, and relevant strategies can be developed based on the information gathered through marketing research. These strategies help companies in designing and implementing specific marketing campaigns, for example, multicultural marketing campaigns (MCM). For instance, a survey by the Association of National Advertisers, New York in 2008 found that nearly 77 percent of marketers implemented multicultural marketing (MCM) initiatives, with 66 percent of marketers indicating that their company’s efforts in the MCM area have increased over the past few years. However, only 45 percent expressed satisfaction with the results of their MCM initiatives, with 26 percent saying they were “somewhat” or “very” dissatisfied. Further, firms with MCM offerings reported that campaigns for specific target segments have increased significantly since 2003. Table 1-2 provides the percentage of firms with MCM offerings, by target segment. The survey also found print to be the most favored media vehicle for reaching multicultural audiences (65%), followed closely by TV (61%), sponsorships (54%), public relations (54%), targeted radio (53%), in-store marketing (51%) and events (51%). Online advertising placed lowest (49%). These findings have important implications in targeting and developing products and services for the multicultural segments. The following examples give the flavor of marketing research in targeting new market segments. Conquering Latino Homes8 Hispanics account for nearly 16 percent of the U.S. population and are about 50.5 million strong. According to the Census Bureau, the demographic grew 43 percent from 2000 to 2010, making it the fastest growing demographic in the United States. The America Online/Roper ASW U.S. Hispanic Cyber study reports that Hispanics spend nearly 9.5 hours a week online at home and another 13.8 hours a week online at work. This translates to 16 percent more time than the Internet-using U.S. adult population as a whole. The report further notes that, when they meet new people, 43 percent hand over an e-mail address as the sole means of staying in touch compared to 31 percent of the total U.S. online consumer population.9 This demographic holds much promise to marketers and advertisers in terms of revenue and has been receiving increased attention over the years. TABLE 1-2 MCM Offerings by Target Segment 6 Target Segment 2008 2003 Hispanic American 95% 86% African American 76% 60% Asian American 38% 35% Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender 24% NA Source: http://www.marketingcharts.com/topics/demographics/multicultural-marketing-grows-but-frustrations-mounts-6839/ MARKETING RESEARCH The Hispanic market contributes $600 billion of the $1.3 trillion purchasing power of the multicultural population. Despite the popularity of the Hispanic market, advertisement spending aimed at this demographic remains weak. According to the Association of Hispanic Advertising Agencies (AHAA), the nation’s top 671 advertisers, accounting for 80 percent of the total ad spending, spent only $3 billion on print and television advertising to Latinos in 2003; though up from $2.3 billion in 2002, the total is $1 billion less than Procter & Gamble’s global ad budget. The association further added that top U.S. marketers spent 5.1 percent of their total advertising budgets on the Hispanic market in 2003, up from 4.6 percent in 2002. Data compiled by AHAA also reveal that SABMiller spent $40.1 million on Hispanic-targeted television and print advertising last year, the most by an advertiser in the alcoholic-beverage category. They are closely followed by their rival Anheuser-Busch with $21.5 million in spending. Mintel, a Chicago-based market research firm, reports that 75 percent of the Hispanic population is under 45 years old— a prime age group for beer consumption. A Minkel Survey found that 41 percent of whites consumed beer, compared with 38 percent of Hispanics and 29 percent of African-Americans. Hispanics were also found to be the most brand-loyal among beer consumers. The SABMiller unit has entered into a $100 million contract with Univision Communications, their largest ever with a single advertiser, and a sure sign of brewers’ interest to target Hispanics. During the first half of the 2006 World Cup soccer matches, Miller will be the exclusive beer advertiser. The cause for Miller’s interest is a booming Hispanic population.10 Advertisers are now making ads that depict cultural integration and generate product awareness. The pioneer in this effort is Sears, which came up with the “Solo Para Ti” (Just for You) campaign on Spanish-speaking television. Imagine The ROI of Sears in 2050 when the Hispanic population represents 25 percent of the total U.S. population! Marketing Research in Action 1-1 provides the initiative made by Hewlett-Packard Co. in targeting Hispanic consumers. Even Internet service providers (ISP) are taking an interest in this segment. In October 2003, America Online launched AOL Latino, a Spanish language version of its 9.0 Optimized online service designed to meet the needs of Hispanics in the United States. For AOL and its advertisers, MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-1 HP Targets Hispanic Consumers HP created an integrated marketing program to run during the 2006 holiday season targeting Hispanic consumers. For the holiday season, HP focused on a set of products that can be given as holiday gifts, including notebooks, desktops, printers and cameras. In order to get the word out, HP partnered with 500 retail outlets and used a multi-channel call to action. Through the various channels, HP invited consumers to call or go online or to approach a certain retailer for more information on the products on offer. TV and radio ads were aired in select markets with a higher concentration of Hispanic consumers, including Miami, Houston, and San Diego. TV commercials featuring Papa Noel (Santa Claus in Spanish) in the “PC is Personal” campaign was used to good response. This segment also included targeting Spanish speaking DJs with sweepstakes and other gifts. The DJs would tell listeners to visit a local retailer and win, for example, an HP camera or printer, which drove traffic to the company’s retail partners. The Web component of the promotion featured a dedicated Spanish-language Web site, dubbed Ahora (www.hp.com/go/hpahora), which offered a sweepstakes contest, product information, a toll-free hotline and access to Spanish-speaking representatives. An extensive PR effort was also incorporated. HP’s Spanish speaking employees participated in Demo Days, during which they would go to a retail store and help customers with products. The multipronged effort boosted HP’s sales in targeted stores. In areas with integrated efforts HP witnessed a 75 percent year-over-year growth from 2005 to 2006 from holiday to holiday. Apart from the sales increase, HP also managed to garner good PR buzz. HP’s products were named the “official camera” for five radio stations in Houston, had several on-air mentions in New York and Los Angeles. HP’s call centers received praise too. Through Spanish-speaking agents, HP had provided the consumers and prospects with a level of comfort and instant connections. The tremendous success that HP enjoyed through this integrative marketing approach has made them to consider continuing this initiative further, as against to just a holiday shopping offer. SOURCE: Nikki Hopewell, “Hewlett-Packard Co.,” Marketing News, November 1, 2007. 7 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE this group is fairly new to the Internet and usage is growing quickly. In June 2003, comScore Media Metrix reported there were 12.5 million Hispanics online, up 25 percent from 2000. AOL says it already has 2.3 million Hispanic members, and it wants to be the first-choice ISP for new online Hispanics, as it has been for so many in the general population. AOL has customized the e-mail service by providing a greeting in Spanish, which reads “Bienvenidos, tienes e-mail” instead of “Welcome, you’ve got mail,” that greets the English users. They have also managed to rope in Coca-Cola, Bank of America, Heineken, L’Oreal, General Mills’ Cheerios, and Toyota as charter sponsors for AOL Latino. A.C. Nielsen, on the other hand, has used its Homescan system to analyze Hispanic consumer habits. Homescan recruits residents of some 500 Latino households who will keep track of their store purchases and scan the bar codes into la maquinita, or the little machine. Early findings show that Latino households outspend general market households in many product categories. For example, the average Hispanic household in the survey spent 67 percent more on carbonated soft drinks than did the average non-Hispanic household, 89 percent more on fruit drinks, 39 percent more on cereal, and 41 percent more on toilet paper. P&G Luring Women with Their Feminine Toothpaste11 The distinction between men’s and women’s grooming aids is very clear, and the last unisex product left in the bathroom is the toothpaste. Men’s and women’s teeth being the same, it will take a lot of marketing efforts to make it a success. In 2002 Procter & Gamble Co. launched a gender-specific toothpaste called Crest® “Rejuvenating Effects” for women. P&G’s approach was not to make the toothpaste pink or write “for women” on it, but the rejuvenating effects came in a shimmery box and a hint of vanilla and cinnamon made it a “feminine” product. For deciding the flavor, researchers gave women about 50 to 100 toothpaste flavors ranging from mint to vanilla. Women like cinnamon and vanilla flavor the most and also like sparkle in their paste. Some women suggested a change in the tube so that it would match with their bathroom accessories. P&G’s target is to have the household buy a number of toothpastes—for example, one for mom, one for dad, and one for kids. P&G is desperate for the success of Crest® because it has lost 2/3 of the $1.2 billion market share to Colgate’s “whitening” toothpaste. By making toothpaste for women, who do 82 percent of the grocery shopping, P&G can make the household buy a 25 percent more expensive product. While testing with men and women, women give a higher rating to rejuvenating effects, but men did not reject it completely. Men are a little reluctant in using “feminine” products, but most men go along with whatever product their wives bring home. The product name “Rejuvenating” stimulates women who are concerned with aging. The targeted market for P&G is 30–44-year-old women. P&G thinks its new product will help trigger the urgent “rush to brush” feeling in women, and also P&G could make women think about toothpaste in the same way they do about skin lotion and shampoo. Harley-Davidson Exploring New Markets12 8 Harley-Davidson, the major U.S. motorcycle maker, was facing problem—stagnant domestic sales. The management realized that they had to attract more people and extend their appeal beyond the established base of middle-aged men in order to remain successful. In 1999, Harley-Davidson started a rental program which provided them a way to hook customers on riding and thereby entice them into committing to buying a motorcycle. Although the renters were mostly men, the program served the function of making the buying process simpler for people who had just learned to ride through Harley’s Rider’s Edge program—40 percent of those enrolled in the program were female and about 30 percent were under the age of 35. Though the program may have been subtle and not easily measurable, it has shown much promise from the start. There has been an increase from 6 participating dealers to 250, including 52 in countries such as France, Italy, Canada, Costa Rica, Australia, and Mexico. The company ROLE OF MARKETING RESEARCH IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING intends to expand this further by adding another 20 to 30 participating outlets every year. Motorcycles rented increased from 401 days in 1999 to a total of 224,134 days worldwide in 2004. Harley-Davidson says that 32 percent of rental customers it surveyed bought a bike or placed an order after renting, and another 37 percent were planning to buy one within a year. In addition, nearly half of the renters spend more than $100 on Harley-Davidson accessories, such as T-shirts and gloves. Harley Davidson has a history riddled with innovative and timely marketing intervention that has allowed Harley-Davidson to sustain its superiority in the premium heavy-weight motorcycle segment. One of the primary strengths of Harley Davidson is its polarization. People either love a Harley or hate it—and those who do love a Harley really LOVE it. Can you think of another brand that people actually tattoo to their body? With the Harley Owners Group (HOG), the company ensures that customers and prospects continue to be active and enthusiastic. HOG currently has over 295,000 members worldwide, 900 local chapters and is the largest company-sponsored motorcycle enthusiast group. By organizing a number of national, touring, and state rallies, the HOG encourages people to use their motorcycle, based on Harley’s confidence that if people use the motorcycle, they will continually stay involved. There are thousands of such examples, because virtually every private- and public-sector organization encounters the same pressures for more and better information about its markets. Whether the organization serves customers in competitive market environments or clients in a public-sector enterprise, it is necessary to understand and satisfy the changing needs of diverse groups of people. Marketing research is the function that links the consumer, customer, and public to the marketer through information—information used to identify and define marketing opportunities and problems; generate, refine, and evaluate marketing actions; monitor marketing performance; and improve understanding of marketing as a process. Marketing research specifies the information required to address these issues, designs the method for collecting information, manages and implements the data collection process, analyzes, and communicates the findings and their implications. American Marketing Association Official Definition of Marketing Research This definition highlights the role of marketing research as an aid to decision making. An important feature is the inclusion of the specification and interpretation of needed information. Too often, marketing research is considered narrowly as the gathering and analyzing of data for someone else to use. Firms can achieve and sustain a competitive advantage through the creative use of market information. Hence, marketing research is defined as an information input to decisions, not simply the evaluation of decisions that have been made. Market research alone, however, does not guarantee success; the intelligent use of market research is the key to business achievement. A competitive edge is more the result of how information is used than of who does or does not have the information.13 ROLE OF MARKETING RESEARCH IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING Marketing decisions involve issues that range from fundamental shifts in the positioning of a business or the decision to enter a new market to narrow tactical questions of how best to stock a grocery shelf. The context for these decisions is the market planning process, which proceeds sequentially through four stages: situation analysis, strategy development, marketing program development, and implementation. This is a never-ending process, so the evaluation of past strategic decisions serves as an input to the situation assessment. Figure 1-2 suggests some elements of each stage. During each stage, marketing research makes a major contribution to clarifying and resolving issues and then choosing among decision alternatives. The following sections describe these steps in more detail and describe the information needs that marketing research satisfies. 9 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE • Situation Analysis • • • Strategy Development • • Marketing Program Development Implementation • • • • • • ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE Understand the environment and the market Identify threats and opportunities Assess the competitive position Define the business scope and served market segments Establish competitive advantages Set performance objectives Product and channel decisions Communication decisions Pricing Personal selling decisions Performance monitoring Refining strategies and program FIGURE 1-2 Marketing planning process. Situation Analysis Effective marketing strategies are built on an in-depth understanding of the market environment of the business, and the specific characteristics of the market. The depth of these information needs can be seen from the list in Table 1-3, which shows the requirements of a major consumer packaged-goods manufacturer. TABLE 1-3 Scope of Situation Assessment for a Consumer Goods Manufacturer 1. Market environment a. Technologies? How else will customers satisfy their needs? b. Economic trends? Disposable income? c. Social trends? What are the trends in age, marital status, working women, occupations, location, and shifts away from the center city? What values are becoming fashionable? d. Political and regulatory? New labeling and safety requirements. 2. Market characteristics a. Market size, potential, and growth rate? b. Geographic dispersion of customers? c. Segmentation: How many distinct groups are there? Which are growing? d. Competition? Who are the direct rivals? How big are they? What is their performance? What is their strategy, intentions, and likely behavior with respect to product launches, promotions, and the like? e. Competitive products? Their nature and number? f. Channel members? What is the distribution of sales through supermarkets and other outlets? What are the trends? What are they doing to support their own brands? 10 3. Consumer behavior a. What do they buy? A product or service? A convenience, shopping, or specialty good? A satisfaction . . . ? b. Who buys? Everybody? Women only? Teenagers (that is, demographic, geographic, psychographic classification)? c. Where do they buy? Will they shop around or not? Outlet types? d. Why do they buy? Motivations, perceptions of product and needs, influences of peers, prestige, influence of advertising, media? e. How do they buy? On impulse, by shopping (that is, the process they go through in purchasing)? f. When do they buy? Once a week? Every day? Seasonal changes? g. Anticipated change? Incidence of new products, shifts in consumers’ preferences, needs? ROLE OF MARKETING RESEARCH IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING The macroenvironment includes political and regulatory trends, economic and social trends, and technological trends. Marketing researchers tend to focus on those trends that affect the demand for products and services. For example, the most important influences on the demand for consumer packaged-food products over the last decade were ■ Demographic shifts, including a record number of aging adults who were increasingly affluent and active. ■ Rapid changes in family structure as a result of delayed marriages, working wives, and a high divorce rate. ■ Shifts in values as consumers became preoccupied with their own economic and emotional well-being. These trends resulted in increased concerns about the quality of food, nutritional value, personal fitness, and “naturalness.” Equally influential were shifts in food consumption patterns toward “grazing” or snacking, and more away-from-home eating. Understanding the customers—who they are, how they behave, why they behave as they do, and how they are likely to respond in the future—is at the heart of marketing research. Increasingly, marketing researchers are being asked to turn their talents to understanding the behavior and intentions of consumers. Marketing Research in Action 1-2 depicts how eating MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-2 Market on the Go While eating and drinking on the street may seem a normal behavior in the United States, it could mean violating two fundamental rules in Italy—looking good and eating well. Italians are often taught that eating or drinking while walking causes indigestion, with the exception of a gelato or a slice of focaccia being the only food they could enjoy on the street. Italian children too are taught not to eat or drink anywhere but at the table. This rule is so strictly adhered to, that many shops and businesses still close for 2 hours between 12:30 and 2:30 in the afternoon so people can enjoy a leisurely meal. This is also reflected in licensing laws which do not permit sales of food or drinks at places like newsstands. Italians have always believed in the curative properties of mineral waters, with some small towns making public fountains out of spring water. According to International Bottled Water Association, a U.S.-based trade association representing the bottled water industry, per capita consumption of bottled water in Italy was 53.3 gallons in 2007—third in the world after United Arab Emirates and Mexico, as compared to the 29.3 gallons in U.S. during the same year. Italy is among the leading producers, exporters and consumers of mineral water in the world with over 250 brands of Italian mineral water on the international market and over 600 brands sold domestically. However, Italians drink just 12 liters a year on the move, half of what Americans do. Nestle SA, a major player in the bottled-water business, is now trying to build a new market by changing Italian habits. They have designed a new bottle top with a membrane to prevent leaking into handbags. To encourage the consumption of bottled water outside, Nestle distributes their water at soccer games and aerobic sessions. To promote the “on the go” behavior, Nestle is trying to persuade Italians to drink more bottled water away from the table through its new offerings. To cater to the young women segment, they have launched a brand named Acqua Panna. The TV commercials for this squeezable hourglass-shaped 75 cl (25.4 oz.) bottle, known as Panna 75, featured a fashionable cartoon character named Lulu who carries a purse containing Acqua Panna, tipped over to show that it does not leak. Nestle researchers also found that Italian mothers believe that fizzy drinks and ice are not good for kids. For this, they came up with a brand of still water called Issima—denoting an Italian suffix used in superlatives—in 11.2 oz. bottles. The marketers at Nestle arranged for free samples to be handed out to mothers and explained that the squeezable bottle fits neatly in lunch boxes, and is neither fizzy, nor cold, nor a soda. Nestle’s promotion activities for Issima included conducting contests for kids on its Issima website with prizes such as radios and flashlights, launching a website that lets kids play a game following the adventures of Issimo—a skateboarding cartoon character—and signing a deal with Autogrill, Italy’s largest roadside restaurant chain to include Issima in its kids’ meals. SOURCE: Updated and adapted with permission from Deborah Ball, “Italian Challenge: Water Everywhere, but Not to Go,” The Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2005, p. A.1. 11 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE and drinking habits among Italians have made Nestle in Italy see a new market to promote their bottled water. A major responsibility of the marketing research function is providing information that will help detect problems and opportunities, and then, if necessary, learning enough to make decisions as to what marketing program would result in the greatest response. An opportunity might be presented by the sense that customers are increasingly dissatisfied with existing products. Marketing research could be asked to detect the dissatisfaction, perhaps determine how many people are dissatisfied, and learn the level and nature of that dissatisfaction. Various research approaches are used to analyze the market. Perhaps the simplest is to organize information already obtained from prior studies, from magazine articles that have been printed, and from customers’ comments to a firm’s sales representatives. Another approach is to have small groups of customers, called focus groups, discuss their use of a product. Such discussion groups can provide many ideas for new marketing programs. When a problem or opportunity has been identified and it is necessary to understand it in greater depth, a survey is often employed. For example, to understand the competitive position of Quebec in the tourism market, a survey was conducted to determine the benefits sought by visitors and nonvisitors, as well as the risks they perceived. The results identified a large group who felt highly insecure in new and/or foreign environments and were not attracted by the appeals of uniqueness in culture, traditions, and architecture that Quebec used to differentiate its product. Marketing Research in Action 1-3 is a prime example of a company repackaging and tailoring its product range based on customer preferences and demand. Strategy Development 12 All businesses have strategies, which are the methods used to make and sell products or perform services. Often, strategies are determined by a company’s reaction to events beyond its control rather than by solid marketing intelligence and strategic planning. But, the question asked is why do firms plan? The answer is simple: competitive advantage.14 Several factors contribute to organizational growth in both size and complexity. Decision making gets more and more complex as the size of the business and market share increases, and vice versa when the business size and market share decreases. This implies a critical need for strategic focus—focusing on customer/competitive analysis. Both elements are critically dependent on rigorous marketing intelligence.15 In order for companies to maximize opportunity, they must first assess their strategic position. Only then will management be able to decide where and how the company should position itself. Evaluations of past performance, marketing strengths and weaknesses, reputation for quality products, utilization issues, and mission need to be addressed. All of these issues can be addressed by strategic planning and good marketing intelligence.16 During the strategy development stage the management team of the business decides on answers to three critical questions. Marketing research provides significant help in finding the answers to these questions. 1. What business should we be in? Specifically, what products or services should we offer? What technologies will we utilize? Which market segments should we emphasize? What channels should we use to reach the market? These are far-reaching choices that set the context for all subsequent decisions. These questions have become especially compelling in markets that are mature and saturated, including not only most packaged goods but also household appliances, automobiles, and services such as banking and air travel. One sure route to growth in this competitive environment is to create highly targeted products that appeal to the tastes of small market segments. Research supports this search for niches with large-scale quantitative market studies that describe buying behavior, consumer beliefs and attitudes, and exposure to communications media. Large samples are needed to delineate the segments, indicate their size, and determine what the people in each segment are seeking in a product. ROLE OF MARKETING RESEARCH IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-3 Restructuring and Rejuvenating McDonald’s With more than 35,000 stores in 100 countries, McDonald’s is the world’s largest fast-food chain. Despite a whopping 43 percent market share, McDonald’s sales had been stagnant for several years and dipped 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2002. This spurred a dramatic turnaround in corporate focus, leading to the adoption of a two pronged strategy. In the United States, McDonald’s has focused on increasing sales volume and quality at existing locations by renovating stores, increasing store hours and expanding menu offerings. Internationally, McDonald’s has expanded aggressively through franchisees. Despite its size, these strategies have sufficiently paid off in terms of sales and revenue. As of 2008, McDonald’s has been responsible for 19% of the total revenue earned in the Fast-Food industry, and possess approximately 90% market share in the 67 billion dollar Fast-Food Hamburger Restaurant sector, In the local market, McDonald’s does not seem to show any signs of slowing down even in tough economic situations and falling consumer spending, and is even benefiting as consumers trade down from more expensive eating options, while international operations continue to drive profit growth. Explosive growth of a global middle class, particularly in emerging markets like China, India and Latin America, has been a massive opportunity for McDonald’s. McDonald’s has effectively used its size to muscle out competition in three primary ways: ■ Uniform menu offerings can be mass produced, lowering production costs. ■ Bargaining power with suppliers lowers input costs and boosts margins. ■ Large advertising budget means lots of domestic and international exposure. SOURCE: Adapted and updated from “McDonald’s Trying to Get Out of The Same Old Grind,” Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2002. 2. How will we compete? Next the management team has to decide why the business is better than the competition in serving the needs of the target segment, and what has to be done to keep it in front. Competitive superiority is revealed in the market as either differentiation along attributes that are important to target customers, or the lowest delivered cost position. Otis Elevator is able to dominate the elevator business by using information technologies to provide superior service response and preventive maintenance programs that reduce elevator breakdowns— attributes that customers appreciate. Marketing research is essential for getting answers to three key questions about differentiation: What are the attributes of the product or service that create value for the customer? Which attributes are most important? How do we compare to the competition? For example, every movie has a dozen different story lines, and Joseph Helfgot, a sociologist turned Hollywood market researcher, says he knows which one you want to hear. Helfgot is the one who tells studio executives how to sell their movies and sink-or-swim release schedules. Consider The Silence of the Lambs (Helfgot won’t discuss any of his recent projects). Is it about a gruesome serial murderer? Or a feisty FBI ingenue? Or a brilliant psychotic helping the FBI catch a like-minded fiend? None of the above, Helfgot found out. Audiences were interested in hearing a story about the bizarre relationship between Jodie Foster, an FBI academy graduate, and imprisoned serial killer Hannibal Lecter—played by Anthony Hopkins—who helped her solve the murders. That became the focus of the publicity campaign for what turned out to be a blockbuster hit. With marketing costs accounting for up to a third of movie budgets and with competition for space in movie theaters becoming increasingly fierce, studios have come to rely on whatever information science can provide to help sell their movies. The attributes of value go well beyond physical characteristics, to encompass the support activities and systems for delivery and service that make up the augmented product. In the lodging market, the key attributes are honoring reservations on time, providing good value for the money, and the quality and amenities of the guest rooms. Each market has unique attributes that customers employ to judge the competitive offerings, which can be understood only through careful analysis of usage patterns and decision processes within that market. This knowledge comes from informed sources and in-depth customer surveys. 13 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE An understanding of competitive advantage also requires detailed knowledge of the capabilities, strategies, and intentions of present and prospective competitors. Marketing research contributes here in two ways: identifying the competitive set, and collecting detailed information about each competitor. Some ways of undertaking competitive intelligence work are discussed later in the book. Marketing Research in Business 1-4 talks about how marketing research helped a speech-recognition software provider find his market. 3. What are the objectives for the business? An objective is a desired performance result that can be quantified and monitored. There are usually objectives for revenue growth, market share, and profitability. Increasingly, firms are adopting objectives for service levels (for example, speed of response to quotations) and customer satisfaction. Marketing research is needed to establish both the market share and the level of customer satisfaction. Sometimes share information—we have x percent of the y market—is readily available from secondary sources, but it may not be if the served market is different from the standard definition, or if share is defined in dollar sales terms rather than unit volume. Marketing Program Development Programs embrace specific tasks, such as developing a new product or launching a new advertising campaign (see Marketing Research in Action 1-4). An action program usually focuses on a single objective in support of one element of the overall business strategy. This is where the bulk of ongoing marketing research is directed. An idea of the possibilities of and needs for research can be gathered from Table 1-4, which describes some of the representative program decisions that utilize information about market characteristics and customer behavior. To illustrate some of the possible research approaches that are employed, we will focus on the series of market research studies that were conducted to help Johnson Wax Company successfully introduce Agree Creme Rinse in 1977 and Agree Shampoo in 1978. The story begins MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-4 Understanding a Specialized Market In 1998, a group of software students at Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh developed speechrecognition software. As the software took account of stammers, pauses, and other quirks for increasing the accuracy of its transcriptions, they believed they had a great business idea. They launched a company called Multimodal Technologies and signed on some customers by licensing the software for uses such as video game interfaces, customer call centers, and automakers. However, the voice-recognition software did not fit the customers well. In the tests conducted, customers were not able to produce documents with the accuracy that the programmers could manage. They realized that they had built an application which no one could work with. The business model was discarded by Multimodal and it started concentrating on a narrower market. It started by changing focus from a software seller through licensing to a service provider and began customizing the software for the customers to better suit their needs. It narrowed in on the health-care market as its prime focus, recognizing the industry’s need for cost-saving technologies. It then began pitching for the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC), which spends more than $20 million a year to transcribe the diagnoses and prescriptions that doctors dictate into tape recorders. After months of negotiation, a pilot test was launched in 2003 in the hospital’s radiology department. The results showed accuracy to be 95 percent and savings totaled about 40 percent. Apart from addressing the transcription issues, the software also finds its uses in converting digital documents into different formats for patients, insurers, and administrators; easier search functions by locating more key words among others. In all, the software provides more advantages like greater savings and efficiencies than just reducing the labor of transcribing dictation. In the words of Michael Finke, founder and chief executive of Multimodal Technologies, “Nobody buys you because you are a cool technology; you had better solve someone’s problem.” 14 SOURCE: Adapted with permission from Paulette Thomas, ”Case Study: For Profits, Technology Must Answer a Need,” The Wall Street Journal—Eastern Edition, October 26, 2004, p. B. 4. ROLE OF MARKETING RESEARCH IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING TABLE 1-4 Developing the Marketing Program—Representative Decisions That Draw on Marketing Research 1. Segmentation decisions Which segment should be the target? What benefits are most important for each segment? Which geographic area should be entered? 2. Product decisions What product features should be included? How should the product be positioned? What type of package is preferred by the customers? 3. Distribution decisions What type of retailer should be used? What should be the markup policy? Should a few outlets be employed or many? 4. Advertising and promotion decisions What appeals should be used in the advertising? In which vehicles should the advertising be placed? What should the budget be? What sales promotion should be used, and when should it be scheduled? 5. Personal selling decisions What customer types have the most potential? How many salespeople are needed? 6. Price What What What decisions price level should be changed? sales should be offered during the year? response should be made to a competitor’s price? 7. Branding decisions What should be the name, symbol, logo, and slogan that will be associated with the product? What is the position that the brand should adopt vis-à-vis the competition? How can brand loyalty be increased? 8. Customer satisfaction decisions How should customer satisfaction be measured? How often should it be measured? How should customer complaints be handled? with a major market analysis survey of hair-care practices that was conducted in the early 1970s. The study showed that there was a trend away from hair sprays, but a trend toward shampooing hair more frequently and a growing concern about oily hair. This led to a strategic decision to enter the shampoo and creme rinse market with products targeted toward the oiliness problem. This decision was supported by other studies on competitive activities in the market and on the willingness of the retailers to stock new shampoos.17 A total of 50 marketing research studies conducted between 1975 and 1979 supported the development of these two products. A series of focus group discussions was held to understand the oiliness problem and people’s perceptions of existing shampoo products. The firm was particularly interested in learning about teenagers, since most of its products were sold to homemakers. One goal of these focus groups was to get ideas for a copy theme. Subsequently, more focus groups were held to get reactions to the selected advertising theme, “Helps Stop the Greasies.” Several tests of advertising were employed in which customers were exposed to advertisements, and their reactions were obtained. In fact, more than 17 television commercials were created and tested. 15 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE More than 20 of the studies helped to test and refine the product. Several blind comparison tests were conducted, in which 400 women were asked to use the new product for two weeks and compare it to an existing product. (In a blind test the products are packaged in unlabeled containers and the customers do not know which contains the new product.) Several tests of the final marketing program were conducted. One was in a simulated supermarket where customers were asked to shop after they had been exposed to the advertising. The new product, of course, was on the shelf. Another test involved placing the product in an actual supermarket and exposing customers to the advertising. Finally, the product was introduced using the complete marketing plan in a limited test area involving a few selected communities including Fresno, California, and South Bend, Indiana. During the process, the product, the advertising, and the rest of the marketing program were being revised continually. The effort paid handsome dividends: Agree Creme Rinse took a 20 percent share of the market for its category and was number one in unit volume, and Agree Shampoo also was introduced successfully. In the 1980s, Gillette introduced Mink Difference Shampoo, containing mink oil, for the older market, and for the younger segment, Silkience, a self-adjusting shampoo that provided differential conditioning depending on the user’s hair type. Implementation The beginning of the implementation phase is signaled by a decision to proceed with a new program or strategy and by the related commitments to objectives, budgets, and timetables. At this point the focus of marketing research shifts to such questions as Did the elements of the marketing program achieve their objectives? How did sales compare with objectives? In what areas were sales disappointing? Why? Were the advertising objectives met? Did the product achieve its distribution objectives? Are any supermarkets discontinuing the product? Should the marketing program be continued, revised, or expanded? Are customers satisfied with the product? Should the product be changed? More features added? Should the advertising budget be changed? Is the price appropriate? For research to be effective at this stage, it is important that specific measurable objectives be set for all elements of the marketing program. Thus, there should be sales goals by geographic area; distribution goals, perhaps in terms of the number of stores carrying the product; and advertising goals, such as achieving certain levels of awareness. The role of marketing research is to provide measures against these objectives and to provide more focused studies to determine why results are below or above expectations. Often underlying this phase of marketing management is uncertainty about the critical judgments and assumptions that preceded the decision. For example, in the first half of 1996, Compaq, IBM, Dell, and Gateway all launched new products in the personal computer market. Compaq introduced its Presario line of personal computers, designed to target specific groups of consumers.18 Prior to this, most companies targeted only one brand of PC toward the home segment. One reason was a fundamental assumption about whether customers use computers for purposes other than traditional computing tasks. In response to this uncertainty, the companies undertook research studies to measure the acceptability of new product entries and of maintaining computer usage at home. There is overlap among the phases of the marketing process. In particular, the last phase, by identifying problems with the marketing program—and perhaps opportunities as well—eventually blends into the situation analysis phase of some other follow-up marketing program. 16 FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE MARKETING RESEARCH DECISIONS FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE MARKETING RESEARCH DECISIONS Marketing research is not an immediate or an obvious path to finding solutions to all managerial problems. A manager who is faced with a particular problem should not instinctively resort to conducting marketing research to find a solution to the problem. A manager should consider several factors before ordering marketing research and conduct a value analysis to answer the simple question—will the reduction in risk be greater than the cost?—which includes the time delay associated with waiting to make the decision. In many situations it is best not to conduct marketing research. Hence, the primary decision to be made is whether or not market research is called for in a particular situation. The factors that influence this initial decision include the following. Relevance Research should not be conducted to satisfy curiosity or confirm the wisdom of previous decisions. Relevance comes through support of strategic and tactical planning activities, that is, by anticipating the kinds of information that will be required. This information is the backbone of the ongoing information system. As new circumstances arise and decision alternatives become more specific, research projects may be undertaken. Throughout the planning of these projects, the focus must be constantly on decisions. Type and Nature of Information Sought The decision whether to conduct marketing research depends on the type and nature of the information sought. If the information required for decision making already exists within the organization, in the form of results of a study conducted for a different problem or in the form of managerial experience and talents, marketing research is not called for. Under these circumstances, further research would be redundant and a waste of money. For example, Procter & Gamble, using its prior knowledge of the U.S. coffee market, launched Folger’s Instant Coffee nationally, after some preliminary research. The same is true for many organizations that have accumulated rich experience in a particular market and already possess the information required to solve a certain problem. Timing Research decisions are constrained by the march of events. Often these decisions are fixed in time and must be taken according to a specified schedule, using whatever information is available. If a new product is to be launched in the spring, all the research-based decisions on price, product formulation, name, copy appeals, and other components must be conducted far in advance. One role of the planning system is to schedule needed market research so that it can be conducted in time to influence decisions. The formulation of responses to competitive actions puts the greatest time pressure on researchers, for the results are always wanted “yesterday.” There are, of course, many situations where the timing of decisions is contingent upon the research results. Even so, there is still time pressure stemming from the recognition that failure to take corrective action or pursue an opportunity as quickly as possible will result in opportunity costs. Availability of Resources Though the need for resources to be available may appear to be obvious, in several instances managers have called for marketing research without properly understanding the amount of 17 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE resources available—including both financial and human resources. Lack of funds can result in improper and inefficient execution of a marketing research project. The results of such research often will be inaccurate. Again, if funds are available to conduct proper research but are insufficient to implement the results of the research, the marketing research is made useless. Also, the availability of a talent pool is a critical issue in deciding whether or not to conduct extensive marketing research. This is particularly so when the research is being conducted by an external source. When poorly qualified researchers are hired, the weaknesses in their training and lack of insight produce unimpressive and often inapplicable results. Cost-Benefit Analysis Before conducting marketing research, a prudent manager should perform a cost–benefit analysis to determine the value of the information sought through the research. Willingness to acquire additional decision-making information by conducting marketing research depends on a manager’s perception of the incremental quality and value of the information vis-à-vis its cost and the time it would take to conduct the research. Hence, before conducting marketing research, it is necessary to have some estimate of the value of the information being sought. Such an estimate will help determine how much, if anything, should be spent on the research. USE OF MARKETING RESEARCH Although research is conducted to generate information, managers do not readily use the information to solve their problems. The factors that influence a manager’s decision to use research information are (1) research quality, (2) conformity to prior expectations, (3) clarity of presentation, (4) political acceptability within the firm, and (5) challenge to the status quo.19 Researchers and managers agree that the technical quality of research is the primary determinant of research use. Also, managers are less inclined to utilize research that does not conform to prior notions or is not politically acceptable.20 Some researchers argue that the use of information is a function of the direct and indirect effects of environmental, organizational, informational, and individual factors.21 However, a researcher should not alter the findings to match a manager’s prior notions. Further, managers in consumer organizations are less likely to use research findings than their counterparts in industrial firms.22 This is due to a greater exploratory objective in information collection, a greater degree of formalization of organizational structure, and a lesser degree of surprise in the information collection. Does Marketing Research Guarantee Success? It is easier to conduct research and generate information than to understand the consequences of the information. Many companies with excellent marketing research experience have failed in their efforts to capture the actual needs of the consumers. For example, Coca-Cola conducted numerous studies before introducing New Coke. The study results revealed that New Coke tasted better than the original Coke, yet the product failed in the marketplace because of consumers’ strong emotional/loyalty attachment to the original Coke.23 Realizing that the market needed a low-calorie beer, Gablinger introduced the first low-calorie beers. However, the poor taste of the beer led to its downfall. Later, Anheuser-Busch and Miller Brewing achieved great success by emphasizing the benefits of good taste and a less filling product (rather than fewer calories, although what the market wanted was a low-calorie beer).24 Findings in international markets have shown that a product should be priced in a manner in which the customer will realize the value received, and that the price should be within reach 18 ETHICS IN MARKETING RESEARCH of the target market. This was observed in the case of Warner-Lambert’s launch of its fiveunit pack of Bubbaloo bubble gum in Brazil. Despite bubble gum representing a majority of the overall gum sector in Brazil, the product failed. The reason was the high price with respect to the target market. The company then re-launched the gum as a single-unit pack and revised the price within the range of the target segment. This price revision stabilized the brand and helped improve sales.25 ETHICS IN MARKETING RESEARCH Ethics refers to moral principles or values that generally govern the conduct of an individual or group. Researchers have responsibilities to their profession, clients, and respondents, and must adhere to high ethical standards to ensure that both the function and the information are not brought into disrepute. The Marketing Research Association, Inc. (Chicago, Illinois) has instituted a code of ethics that serves as a guideline for marketing ethical decisions. Marketing Research in Action 1-5 shows the Code of Professional Ethics and Practices instituted by the Marketing Research Association.26 The Council of American Survey Research Organization (CASRO) has also established a detailed code of marketing research ethics to which its members adhere.27 Normally, three parties are involved in a marketing research project: (1) the client who sponsors the project, (2) the supplier who designs and executes the research, and (3) the respondent who provides the information. The issue of ethics in marketing research involves all three players in a research project. In a recent case, both the sponsor’s and the supplier’s ethics were found to be in question. Marketing Research in Action 1-6 provides the details of the case. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-5 Code of Ethics of Marketing Research Association The Code of Professional Ethics and Practices 1. To maintain high standards of competence and integrity in marketing and survey research. 2. To maintain the highest level of business and professional conduct and to comply with Federal, State and local laws, regulations and ordinances applicable to my business practice and those of my company. 3. To exercise all reasonable care and to observe the best standards of objectivity and accuracy in the development, collection, processing and reporting of marketing and survey research information. 4. To protect the anonymity of respondents and hold all information concerning an individual respondent privileged, such that this information is used only within the context of the particular study. 5. To thoroughly instruct and supervise all persons for whose work I am responsible in accordance with study specifications and general research techniques. 6. To observe the rights of ownership of all materials received from and/or developed for clients, and to keep in confidence all research techniques, data and other information considered confidential by their owners. 7. To make available to clients such details on the research methods and techniques of an assignment as may be reasonably required for proper interpretation of the data, providing this reporting does not violate the confidence of respondents or clients. 8. To promote the trust of the public for marketing and survey research activities and to avoid any procedure which misrepresents the activities of a respondent, the rewards of cooperation or the uses of data. 9. To refrain from referring to membership in this organization as proof of competence, since the organization does not so certify any person or organization. 10. To encourage the observance of principles of this code among all people engaged in marketing and survey research. Visit http://www.marketingpower.com/Pages/default.aspx for more information on this organization. SOURCE: Reprinted by permission of the Marketing Research Association, Inc., Chicago, IL. 19 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-6 Unilever falls victim to ‘dumpster diving’ Procter & Gamble and Unilever, the leading consumer packaged goods companies are known for their fierce competition. In 2001, Procter & Gamble hired private investigators to find more about Unilever’s hair care business. The investigators had sifted through rubbish bins outside Unilever’s offices and succeeded in gathering piles of unshredded documents relating to Unilever’s plans for the shampoo market. While there are no clear rules on the legal status of rubbish, the practice commonly known as ‘dumpster diving’ broke Procter & Gamble’s own internal guidelines on intelligence gathering. When Procter & Gamble were alerted regarding this practice, the management claimed that a few ‘rogue operators’ had apparently overstepped the mark in their eagerness to provide high level intelligence. Following this breach, Unilever responded by threatening legal action against their rivals, and the case was finally resolved when Procter & Gamble made an out of court settlement of around $10 million. SOURCE: Andrew Crane, “In the company of spies: the ethics of industrial espionage,” July 2003, International Center for Corporate Social Responsibility, ISSN 1479-5124. THE RESPONDENT’S ETHICS AND RIGHTS A respondent who of his or her own free will agrees to participate in a marketing research project has the ethical obligation to provide the supplier, and hence the client, with honest and truthful answers. The respondent can abstain from answering a sensitive question, but falsifying the answer is ethically improper. Any respondent who participates in a research project has the following rights: ■ The right to privacy. ■ The right to safety. ■ The right to know the true purpose of the research. ■ The right to the research results. ■ The right to decide which questions to answer. The Sponsor’s Ethics The sponsor, or the research client, has to abide by a number of ethical or moral rules and regulations when conducting a research study. The more common sources of ethical problems in the client establishment stem from the following sources. Overt and Covert Purposes. Most researchers have encountered situations where the main purpose of their efforts was to serve someone’s organizational goals. Thus, research can be used to postpone an awkward decision or to lend respectability to a decision that has been made already. A related purpose is to avoid responsibility. When there are competing factions, the manager who must make a difficult choice looks to research to guide the decision. This has the further advantage that if the decision is later proven wrong, the manager can find someone else to blame. Sometimes a covert purpose will open the way to ethical abuses that present difficult dilemmas to researchers. The most serious abuses are created when there is subtle (or not so subtle) pressure to design research to support a particular decision or enhance a legal position. 20 Dishonesty in Dealing with Suppliers. A few client companies have been known to indulge in “picking the brains” of research suppliers by asking them to submit elaborate bids that detail the research design and methodology the supplier would adopt in conducting the research. Later, the client firm uses these ideas and conducts the research on its own. Another technique that client firms sometimes use is to make a false promise of future contracts in an effort to obtain a low price for the current project. THE RESPONDENT’S ETHICS AND RIGHTS Misuse of Research Information. The client firm should not misuse information gathered through marketing research projects. For example, databases about consumer preferences are used in target marketing to identify the people who are most likely to buy or use a product. Blockbuster Entertainment Corporation (BEC), the world’s largest video rental chain, has about 9,100 companyowned or franchised stores in 25 countries, with around 6,000 in the United States.28 The company rents more than 1 billion videos, DVDs, and video games at its Blockbuster Video outlets each year. Using sophisticated computer-matching information technologies, BEC has also formed a massive database of information on the movie videos it rents, and the information can be made available for resale to direct marketers.29 Even though a federal law prohibits release of the names of video renters, there is no rule against divulging the subject matter of those movies. BEC even made public its intent to sell its renter data,30 which sparked a debate over consumer privacy. BEC soon came under Federal Trade Commission vigilance, faced a torrent of customer criticism, and received considerable negative publicity. Even though BEC does not rent X-rated movies, the concern and controversy that BEC had infringed on customer privacy rights reached a feverish pitch. The common form of misuse comes from comparative advertisements or product performance claims that stem from results of tests done on data that are statistically not significant. Though puffery in advertisements is a normal practice, gross misuse of research data is ethically unacceptable.31 Marketing Research in Action 1-7 provides the current legislative scenario regarding disposal of data. Too often researchers find themselves dealing with demands by sales or other personnel for access to results and the names and telephone numbers of respondents. The intention, of course, is to use the research study for the entirely different—and usually unethical—purpose of generating sales leads. The only time this is acceptable is when the interviewer asks specifically whether the respondent will accept a follow-up sales call, or would like more information, and acts precisely on the respondent’s answer. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-7 Data Disposal CMOR (Council for Marketing and Opinion Research) is an organization that deals with state and federal legislation that affects market and opinion research. Some of its tasks include monitoring telephone solicitation bills, electronic monitoring legislation, data privacy, consumer list legislation, caller ID/call blocking, and political telemarketing. According to CMOR, personal or client information discarded in the trash, any data stored on discarded or donated computer technology (such as hard drives and thumb drives), any data stored on devices that are thrown away or donated to charity, is legally and effectively open to anyone. Further, electronic data kept beyond its usefulness invites mischief or accidental breach. Some of the reasonable measures could include establishing and complying with policies to: ■ Burn, pulverize, or shred papers and destroy or erase electronic files or media containing personal data so that the information cannot be read or reconstructed. This includes any items destined for recycling, charity, or some other form of use; ■ Only maintain data as long as necessary; ■ Audit your organization’s data holdings on a regular basis and keep track of what data is disposed when—and how; ■ Conduct due diligence and hire a document destruction contractor to dispose of material specifically identified as personal data. Some of the due diligences that can be adopted by researchers are: ■ Reviewing an independent audit of a disposal company’s operations and/or its legal compliance; ■ Obtaining information about the disposal company from several references; ■ Requiring that the disposal company be certified by a recognized trade association; ■ Reviewing and evaluating the disposal company’s information security policies or procedures. For more information on CMOR, go to www.cmor.org SOURCE: http://www.mra-net.org/ga/documents/bestpractices/datadisposal_mra_best_practices.pdf 21 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE Disguising Selling as Research. Sadly, there are a number of situations where the research study is simply a disguise for a selling pitch. Many people have received phone calls, ostensibly to ask some research questions, that lead only to a canned sales message for life insurance, an encyclopedia, or a mutual fund. This is not only unethical behavior because it has no merits on its own, it is also a serious abuse of respondent rights. Not surprisingly, respondents are more suspicious after a few of these encounters and may refuse to participate in any research study. The Supplier’s Ethics The more common ethical issues for the research supplier are ■ Violating client confidentiality. Disclosing any information about the client that the supplier has gathered from the research project amounts to a violation of client confidentiality. ■ Improper execution of research. Suppliers are required to conduct marketing research projects in an objective manner, free from personal biases and motives. Improper execution also includes using biased sampling, ignoring relevant data, or misusing statistics, all of which lead to erroneous and misleading results. Marketing Research in Action 1-5 gives a brief listing of federal and state legislation that affects market and opinion research. Abuse of Respondents Abuse of respondents is perhaps the most frequent and controversial problem that crops up regarding ethics in conducting research. Any form of violation of a respondent’s rights amounts to unethical treatment or abuse of the respondent. INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH 22 The increase in international trade and the emergence of global corporations resulting from increased globalization of business have had a major impact on all facets of business, including marketing research. The increase in global competition, coupled with the formation of regional trading blocs such as the European Community (EC) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), have spurred the growth of global corporations and the need for international marketing research. The need to collect information relating to international markets, and to monitor trends in these markets, as well as to conduct research to determine the appropriate strategies that will be most effective in international markets, is expanding rapidly. For example, HEB, the largest grocery store chain in Texas, observed that consumers from Mexico crossed the border to shop at HEB stores in Texas. After conducting some marketing research in Mexico, HEB decided to open its first store (and the first American supermarket) in Monterrey, Mexico. The stores will be somewhat different from their Texas counterparts, with 70 to 80 percent of the products purchased in Mexico and the remainder in the United States. Research revealed that awareness of HEB is quite high among Mexican consumers and that they place a great deal of emphasis on American products (which are better from the consumers’ perspective).32 HE Butt Grocery is a regional supermarket chain, operating 300 stores throughout the Southwest, primarily in Texas. The company’s H-E-B Plus stores range in size from 110,000 to nearly 200,000 square feet. HE Butt also operates specialty stores Central Market (gourmet foods) and Mi Tienda (Hispanic foods), and has 29 stores in Mexico. It employs around 70,000 employees and grossed a revenue of over $15 billion in 2007.33 Wal-Mart acquired Cifra, Mexico’s largest supermarket chain, in 1997 and changed its name to Wal-Mart de Mexico in 2000.34 So many signs are positive for Mexico’s economy.35 The marketing research industry in the United States is increasingly growing into an international industry, with more than one-third of its revenues coming from foreign operations. The increase in the importance of global business has caused an increase in awareness of the problems related to international research. International marketing research can be defined as marketing research conducted either simultaneously or sequentially to facilitate marketing decisions INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH in more than one country.36 As such, the basic functions of marketing research and the research process do not differ in domestic and multicountry research; however, the international marketing research process is much more complicated and the international marketing researcher faces problems that are different from those of a domestic researcher. Marketing Research in Action 1-8 talks about Coca-Cola’s foray and experience in the Chinese market. Throughout this book, we will be discussing the international aspect of the marketing research process, and, when applicable, we will be highlighting the differences between domestic and international research. The task of marketing research is to find a sizable segment with homogeneous tastes. The growing presence of an international market in the United States has been influenced by both domestic and foreign markets. In the domestic arena, ethnic groups range from Chinese to Turkish, each lending a piece of its culture to the U.S. market. Within each ethnic group, the product preference is diverse. These facts present a challenge to marketing research to find a homogeneous group among the “melting pot” of international products. Complicating matters is the rise in foreign manufacturers selling their goods in the United States. Marketing Research in Action 1-9 addresses the issue of viewing U.S. consumers as global consumers. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-8 Coca-Cola Charting Success in China In an effort to offset slower growth at home, Coca-Cola has been aggressively expanding in international markets. When it entered China in 1979, the carbonated drinks market was small and dominated by local brands. It created a strategy of partnering with and acquiring local bottling companies played an important role in its capturing the Chinese market. The key to Coca-Cola’s success in China can be attributed to its “high-road” brand positioning strategy. Focus on innovation to bring back customers for more forms the crux of this high-road strategy. While the carbonated beverages category existed in China before Coca-Cola, the market was small and consisted of a few low-end carbonated fruit drinks, which were sold mainly to tourists. Coca-Cola created the carbonated drinks category as it exists today by introducing products new to the Chinese beverage market, starting with its flagship Coke. Coca-Cola’s Fanta and Smart—flavors that were launched exclusively for the Chinese market—became top earners for the company. The company continues to launch new products and has branched out into related product categories such as beverages, bottled water and fruit juices. Coca-Cola has always supported new product launches with aggressive marketing initiatives. The development of a Chinese version of their logo and the usage of celebrity endorsements are some examples of their customer-focused outlook and their interest in the Chinese market. Their strategy is clearly producing results—over the past decade, its sales have grown at over 20 percent in a category growing at only half that rate. For more information on Coca-Cola products go to http://www.coca-cola.com. SOURCE: Ann Chen and Vijay Vishwanath, “Be the Top Pick in China,” Business Times Singapore, January 16, 2004. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 1-9 Are U.S. Consumers Global Customers? A typical day in the life of an American: “He drove his German car made of Swedish steel and interior of Argentine leather to a gasoline station, where he filled up with Arab oil shipped in a Liberian tanker and bought two French tires, composed of rubber from Sri Lanka. At home, he dropped his Moroccan briefcase, hung up his Scottish tweed coat, removed his Italian shoes and Egyptian cotton shirt, then donned a Hong Kong robe and matching slippers from Taiwan. More comfortable now, he poured a cup of hot Brazilian coffee into an English coffee mug, set a Mexican place-mat on an Irish linen tablecloth atop a Danish table varnished with linseed oil from India. Then he filled his Austrian pipe with Turkish tobacco, lit it, and picked up a Japanese ballpoint pen with which he wrote a letter to his congressman demanding to know why the United States has an unfavorable balance of trade.” SOURCE: http://www.military-quotes.com/forum/only-america-t65609.html *Original source unavailable. 23 CHAPTER 1 A DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE ON MARKETING INTELLIGENCE Summary Marketing research links the organization with its market environment. It involves the specification, gathering, analysis, and interpretation of information to help management understand that particular market environment, identify its problems and opportunities, and develop and evaluate courses of marketing action. The marketing management process involves situation analysis, strategy development, and marketing program development and implementation. Each of these areas includes a host of decisions that need to be supported by marketing research information. Marketing research, to be effective, should be relevant, timely, efficient, accurate, and ethical. Questions and Problems 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. How might the following use marketing research? Be specific. a. A small sporting goods store b. Continental Airlines c. Ohio State University d. Houston Astros baseball team e. Sears Roebuck f. A major television network (CBS, NBC, or ABC) g. Compaq Computers h. A museum in a major city i. A shopping mall in downtown Houston How might marketing research be used to support each of the steps in Figure 1-1 that describes the marketing planning process? For example, how could it help select the served market segment? What are some ethical problems that marketing researchers face in designing and conducting field studies? In some companies, strategic planning and marketing research functions both report to the same executive and may be more or less integrated. What are the advantages of locating the research function in this part of the organization? What arguments could be made in opposition to this arrangement? Most companies have entire marketing research studies, or portions of entire studies, such as interviewing, done by outside suppliers. What factors will determine whether a firm decides to “make versus buy”—that is, to contract out most or all of a study or conduct it themselves? How does marketing research directed toward strategy development differ from that directed toward marketing program development? 7. 8. 9. Fred Burton, the owner of a small tennis club in Wichita, Kansas, feels that a demand exists for indoor courts that presently is not being served. He is considering employing a marketing research company to conduct a study to ascertain whether a market exists for the indoor facilities. a. What factors should Mr. Burton consider before ordering market research to be conducted? b. What are the possible pitfalls that the marketing research company must avoid while conducting the study? c. After obtaining the market research recommendations, Mr. Burton decides not to use the information generated by the market research study. What factors could have influenced his decision not to use the research information? Linda Phillips, an engineering student, has designed an innovative piece of equipment to help the physically disabled to communicate. The equipment incorporates a system of electronic signals emitted with a slight turn of the head. She feels that this product could have commercial success if marketed to health-care organizations, but she has had no past experience in marketing management and does not know how to undertake the market planning and evaluation process. Acting as Ms. Phillips’s marketing consultant, suggest a course of action to help her bring this innovative product to its market. Despite the presence of a written code of ethics, why are some marketing ethical problems hard to cure? Discuss this from both the sponsor and supplier points of view. End Notes 1. http://www-01.ibm.com/software/data/cognos/ products/bi_whitepaper.pdf 2. Heather Havenstein, “Better BI: Erlanger (Ky.) Police Department,” Computerworld, September 1, 2008. 24 3. Gregg Keizer, “Mozilla wants to watch Firefox users,” Computerworld, January 23, 2009. 4. Lisa A. Keefe, “Marketing Defined,” Marketing News, January 15, 2007, pp. 28–29. 5. S. L. Cornish, “Product Innovation and the Spatial Dynamics of Market Intelligence: Does Proximity to Markets Matter?” Economic Geography, Vol. 73, Iss. 2 (April 1997), pp. 147. 6. Michael Huster, “Marketing Intelligence: A First Mover Advantage,” Competitive Intelligence Magazine, Washington: Vol. 8, Iss. 2 (March/April 2005), p. 13. 7. http://www.wired.com/gadgets/wireless/ magazine/16-02/ff_iphone?currentPage=2. 8. Adapted and updated from John Kerrigan, “Playing to Hispanics Garners Rewards,” Marketing News, July 22, 2002, Vol. 36, Iss. 15, p. 20. 9. Pamela Parker, “The Population’s Building. Will the Advertisers Come?” September 12, 2003, http://www.clickz.com/experts/brand/buzz/ article. php/3076351. 10. Suzanne Vranica, “Miller Turns Eye Toward Hispanics,” The Wall Street Journal—Market Place, October 8, 2004, p. B. 3. 11. “His and Her Toothpaste,” Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2002. 12. Adapted and updated from Ryan Nakashima, “Turning Renters into Buyers,” The Hartford Courant, June 28, 2005. 13. Adapted from P. Vincent Barbara and Gerald Zaltman, Hearing the Voice of the Market. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1991. 14. George S. Day, “Evaluating Business Strategies,” Strategic Planning Management, Spring 1984. 15. Douglas C. Bernhardt, “‘I Want It Fast, Actual, Actionable’—Tailoring Competitive Intelligence to Executive’s Needs,” Long Range Planning, Feb 1994, Vol. 27, Iss. 1, p. 12. 16. B. Jaworski, L. G. Wee, “Competitive Intelligence and Bottom-line Performance,” Competitive Intelligence Review, 1993, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 23–27. 17. “Key Role of Research in Agree’s Success Is Told,” Marketing News, January 12, 1979, p. 14. 18. Dwight Silverman, “Compaq Unveils Revised Presarios,” Houston Chronicle, July 16, 1996, p. 1D. 19. Rohit Deshpande and Scott Jeffries, “Attitude Affecting the Use of Marketing Research in Decision Making: An Empirical Investigation, in Educator’s Conference Proceedings, Series 47, Kenneth L. Bernhardt et al. (eds.). Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1981, pp. 1–4. 20. Rohit Deshpande and Gerald Zaltman, “Factors Affecting the Use of Market Research Information: A Path Analysis,” Journal of Marketing Research, 19, February 1982, pp. 14–31; Rohit Deshpande and Gerald Zaltman, “A Comparison of Factors Affecting Researcher and Manager Perceptions of Market 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. Research Use,” Journal of Marketing Research, 21, February 1982, pp. 32–38; Michael Hu, “An Experimental Study of Managers and Researchers Use of Consumer Research, “Journal of Academy of Marketing Science, Fall 1986, pp. 44–51; and Hanjoon Lee, Frank Acito, and Ralph Day, “Evaluation and Use of Marketing Research by Decision Makers: A Behavioural Simulation,” Journal of Marketing Research, 24, May 1987, pp. 187–196. Anil Menon and P. Rajan Varadarajan, “A Model of Marketing Knowledge Use Within Firms,” Journal of Marketing, 56, October 1992, p. 61. Rohit Deshpande and Gerald Zaltman, “A Comparison of Factors Affecting Use of Marketing Information in Consumer and Industrial Firms,” Journal of Marketing Research, 24, February 1987, pp. 114–118. Betsy D. Gelb and Gabriel M. Gelb, “Coke’s Lesson to the Rest of Us,” Sloan Management Review, Fall 1986. Robert D. Hisrich and Michael P. Peters, Marketing Decisions for New and Mature Products. New York: Macmillan, 1991, p. 427. Philip Cateora and John Graham (2007), “International Marketing,” 13th edition, McGraw-Hill Irwin, pp. 533–534. “Code of Ethics of Marketing Research Association,” Chicago, IL: Marketing Research Association, Inc. “CASRO Code of Standards for Survey Research,” The Council of American Survey Research Organizations, Annual Journal, 1992, pp. 19–22. http://www.hoovers.com/ Michael W. Miller, “Coming Soon to Your Local Video Store: Big Brother,” The Wall Street Journal, December 26, 1990, p. 12. “A Blockbuster of a Debate About Privacy: Blockbuster Entertainment May Sell Customer Information from Its Database on Film Rentals,” Washington Post, January 1, 1991, p. E1. Oswald A. J. Mascarenhas, “Exonerating Unethical Marketing Executive Behaviors: A Diagnostic Framework,” Journal of Marketing, 59, April 1995, p. 44. “HEB Plans to Open Store in Monterrey,” Houston Chronicle, September 10, 1996, p. C-1. http://www.forbes.com/business/ walmartstores.com James Flanigan, “Mexico Perplexes Cautious Investors,” Houston Chronicle, September 25, 1999, p. C-1. V. Kumar, International Marketing Research (2000), Prentice-Hall, NY. 25 CASE 1-1 Preteen Market—The Right Place to Be In for Cell Phone Providers? Do parents of preteens envision a need for equipping their children with cell phones? This seems to be the million-dollar question facing cell phone makers like Firefly who view the preteen market as offering more growth opportunities than the senior market. The preteen market is unique in that the ultimate customer, the child, does not make the purchase decision. On one side of this indirect target market are parents with hectic or variable schedules and those who are more harried or worried about their children’s safety. On the other side are parents who are skeptical about the misuse of cell phones by the kids themselves or others and those who consider a kid cell phone as an unnecessary investment especially considering the fact that kids are usually under some supervision or the other, not to mention their tendency to lose personal belongings. Cell phone makers are following the trend set by other industries such as food companies and retailers in targeting the preteen market. Firefly launched its phones in February 2005 priced at $199 offering 12 months or 1,200 minutes of phone service— whichever comes first. The Firefly phone has a number of safety features that make it simpler to use than a conventional phone but harder to abuse. It does not have a numerical keypad. Instead, parents can program up to 20 phone numbers into the device which cannot be changed without a password. Parents can also program the phone in such a way that it only accepts calls from certain numbers. Firefly is not the only wireless carrier targeting the preteen market. Some providers offer regular cell phones at a steep discount for family plans. Wherify, a preteen phone specialist, is offering a kid phone that comes with a global positioning system locator—so parents can better track their offspring. Mattel Inc. is launching a phone with a Barbie theme. While equipping 8 to 12 year olds with cell phones makes it easier for parents and children to get a hold of each other and coordinate activities, parents have other issues to grapple with. Many schools do not allow students to bring cell phones to classrooms. According to one University of Chicago child psychiatrist, most 8 to 12 year olds do not need a cell phone. So the challenge for Firefly and their competitors is “At what age do kids really need a phone?” and “Is the preteen market really worth going after?” Questions for Discussion Do you think preteens offer good market potential for cell phone companies? While designing products for this market, what are the issues faced by the service providers? Source: Adapted with permission from Mike Hughlett, “Target: Teens—Cell Phone Company Going After the Preteen Market,” Chicago Tribune, April 12, 2005. CASE 1-2 Best Buy on a Segmentation Spree approach is Best Buy’s chief executive officer, Brad Anderson. While most chains use their marketing budgets primarily to maximize customer traffic in the view that more visitors will lift revenue and profit, Best Buy uses it to shun its unwanted customers. This would mean dumping nearly 100 million of their unprofitable customers. A variation of this approach is being used in the financial-services industry, wherein attention is lavished on the best customers and the unprofitable customers are penalized with fees for using ATMs or tellers or for obtaining bank records. From Best Buy’s 1.5 million daily customers, Mr. Anderson wants to separate the “angels” from the “devils.” Angels are customers who boost profits by 1. 2. With $24.5 billion in 2005 sales, Best Buy Co. is the nation’s largest seller of consumer electronics. Its spacious store and large inventory has helped it to increase market share, even as its rivals such as Circuit City Stores Inc. and Sears, Roebuck & Co., have struggled. In fiscal 2004 that ended in February, Best Buy reported net income of $570 million. Though up from $99 million during the 2003 fiscal period, it was still below the $705 million it earned in fiscal 2002. Best Buy estimates that nearly 20 percent of its 500 million visitors each year are undesirable and wants to get rid of these customers. Behind this 26 snapping up high-definition televisions, portable electronics, and newly released DVDs without waiting for markdowns or rebates. The devils are Best Buy’s worst customers. They buy products, apply for rebates, return the purchases, and then buy them back at returned-merchandise discounts. They load up on “loss leaders,” then flip the goods at a profit on eBay, slap down rock-bottom price quotes from websites and demand that Best Buy make good on its lowest-price pledge. At dozens of websites like fatwallet.com, slickdeals.net, and techbargains.com, the devil customers trade electronic coupons and tips from former clerks and insiders, hoping to gain extra advantages against the stores. Best Buy has rolled out its angel–devil strategy in about 100 of its 670 stores. It is examining sales records and demographic data and devouring databases to identify good and bad customers. To lure the high-spenders, it is stocking more merchandise and more appealing service options. To keep the undesirables away, the company is cutting back on promotions and sales tactics that tend to draw them. However, the risk attached to such an exercise is significant. The pilot stores have proved more costly to operate and since different pilot stores target different types of customers, they threaten the company’s economies of scale. After a series of analyses, Best Buy concluded that most of its business came from five distinct customer groups: upper-income men, also referred internally as “Barrys”—who tend to be enthusiasts of action movies and cameras, “Jills”—who are suburban mothers; busy but usually willing to talk about helping their families, small-business owners, “Buzzes”—technology enthusiasts, also known as early adopters and interested in buying and showing off the latest gadgets. Mr. Anderson decided that each store should study the demographics of the local market and realign themselves by stocking merchandise accordingly. Armed with this information, Best Buy began working on ways to avoid unprofitable customers. They just could not bar them from entering their stores. But in summer 2004, they took steps to put an end to one of the biggest problems. They enforced a restocking fee of 15 percent of the purchase price on returned merchandise. To discourage customers who return items with the intention of repurchasing them at an “open box” discount, they are experimenting with reselling them over the Internet, so that the goods do not reappear in the stores where they were originally purchased. In July 2004, they cut ties with fatwallet.com, an online affiliate that collected referral fees for delivering customers to Best Buy’s website, for revealing information about Best Buy’s planned Thanksgiving Weekend sale. Training of store clerks plays a vital role in identifying desirable customers by concentrating on their shopping preferences and behavior. Staffers use quick interviews to identify profitable customers. For instance, if a customer says his family has a regular “movie night,” he is a prime candidate for home-theater equipment. Likewise, shoppers with large families are shown larger appliances and time-saving products. The company attempts to entice the Barrys and Jills by providing services like a “personal shopper,” to locate unusual items, alert them on preferred items, and coordinate service calls. Best Buy’s Westminster, California, store is one of 100 using this technique. It targets upper-income men with a wide range of pricey home-theater systems and small-business owners with network servers and office PC solutions. During DVD releases, the store clerks identify promising customers and guide them into a back room that displays $12,000 high-definition hometheater systems. The room has easy chairs, a leather couch, and a basket of popcorn to simulate a theater atmosphere. At stores popular with Buzzes, Best Buy is setting up video game sections furnished with leather chairs and players hooked to giant plasma-screen televisions. Mr. Anderson says early results indicate pilot stores performed far better than conventional stores, following which the company began converting another 70 stores. Best Buy intends to customize the rest of its stores over the next three years. With customization of stores, stock maintenance becomes crucial as it could topple the sales and customer goodwill. Periodic design changes and customizations cause the costs to go up, but Mr. Anderson says that as stores share the successful ideas for acquiring customers, the average cost per store should fall. Questions for Discussion 1. 2. What benefits can Best customer segmentation Do you think Best Buy marketing intelligence decisions? Buy hope to gain from its tactics? is making adequate use of practices for its business Source: Adapted with permission from Gary McWilliams, “Analyzing Customers, Best Buy Decides Not All Are Welcome,” The Wall Street Journal, November 8, 2004, p. A.1. 27 CASE 1-3 Ethical Dilemmas in Marketing Research1 What action would you take? 4. The following scenarios present a set of ethical dilemmas that might arise in marketing research. Your assignment is to decide what action to take in each instance. You should be prepared to justify your decision. Bear in mind that there are no uniquely right answers: Reasonable people may choose different courses of action. A well-respected public figure is going to face trial on a charge of failing to report his part ownership of certain regulated companies while serving as a Canadian provincial minister. The defense lawyers have asked you, as a market research specialist, to do a research study to determine the characteristics of people most likely to sympathize with the defendant and hence to vote for acquittal. The defense lawyers have read newspaper accounts of how this approach has been used in a number of instances. What action would you take? 1. You are the market research director of a pharmaceutical company, and the executive director suggests to you that company interviewers telephone physicians under the name of a fictitious market research agency. The purpose of the survey is to help assess the perceived quality of the company’s products, and it is felt that the suggested procedure will result in more objective responses. 5. What action would you take? 2. You are employed by a marketing research firm and have conducted an attitude study for a client. Your findings indicate that the product’s marketing efforts are not effective. This finding is badly received by the client’s product management team. They request that you omit that data from your formal report, which you know will be widely distributed, on the grounds that the oral presentation was adequate for their needs. What do you do? 3. You are a study director for a research company undertaking a project for a regular client of your company. A study you are working on is about to go into the field when the questionnaire you sent to the client for final approval comes back drastically modified. The client has rewritten it, introducing leading questions and biased scales. An accompanying letter indicates that the questionnaire must be sent out as revised. You do not believe that valid information can be gathered using the revised instrument. You are the market research director for a large chemical company. Recent research indicates that many of your company’s customers are misusing one of its principal products. There is no danger resulting from this misuse, though customers are wasting money by using too much of the product at one time. You are shown the new advertising campaign by the advertising agency. The ads not only ignore this problem of misuse, they actually seem to encourage it. What action would you take? 6. You show up your first day for a summer internship to meet your supervisor and get your first assignment. She gives you a questionnaire with specific marketing planning questions and tells you that she would like you to contact the company’s main three competitors and tell them you are a student doing a study on the industry and get the answers to the questions. She says you should not tell them you are working for the company over the summer and adds “there is nothing wrong with not telling them—omitting the fact is not really lying.” You ask her what you should do if they ask, and she says ‘just tell them you are a student working on a paper and you don’t want to get a poor grade on the assignment.” What action would you take? 1 These vignettes were provided through the courtesy of Professor Charles Weinberg, University of British Columbia, and are reproduced with his permission. 28 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE 2 Learning Objectives ■ Discuss briefly the practice of marketing research. ■ Understand the concept of information systems and decision support systems. ■ Explain marketing decision support systems. ■ Introduce the various suppliers of marketing research information and the types of services offered by them. ■ Talk briefly about the criteria used to select suppliers. ■ Introduce the career options available in the marketing research industry. In practice, a marketing research department’s goal can be grouped into three major categories:1 programmatic, selective, or evaluative. Programmatic research is performed to develop marketing options through market segmentation, market opportunity analysis, or consumer attitude and product usage studies. Selective research is done to test different decision alternatives such as new product concept testing, advertising copy testing, pretest marketing, and test marketing. Evaluative research is carried out to evaluate performance of programs, including tracking advertising recall, corporate and brand image studies, and measuring customer satisfaction with the quality of the product and service. As the number of products and types of services introduced into the market increase, the need for marketing research explodes and the future of marketing research appears to be both promising and challenging.2 Unquestionably, marketing research is a growth industry. In the last decade, real expenditures on marketing research (that is, after adjusting for inflation) more than doubled. This is largely a consequence of economic and social changes that have made better marketing an imperative. With marketing the new priority, marketing research is the rallying cry. Companies are frantically trying to get their hands on information that identifies and explains the needs of powerful new consumer segments now being formed. Kroger Co., for example, holds more than 250,000 consumer interviews a year to define consumer wants more precisely. Some companies are pinning their futures on product innovations, others are rejuvenating time-worn but proven brands, and still others are doing both.3 Not only are the companies that always did marketing research doing a great deal more, the breadth of research activities also continues to expand. ■ Senior management is looking for more support for its strategic decisions; therefore, researchers are doing more acquisition and competitor studies, segmentation and market structure analyses, and basic strategic position assessments. ■ Other functions, such as the legal department, now use marketing research evidence routinely. Corporate Affairs wants to know shareholders’, bankers’, analysts’, and employees’ attitudes toward the company. The service department continuously audits service delivery capability and customer satisfaction. 29 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE ■ Entire industries that used to be protected from the vagaries of competition and changing customer needs by regulatory statutes are learning to cope with a deregulated environment. Airlines, banks, and financial-services groups are looking for ways to overcome product proliferation, advertising clutter, and high marketing costs brought on by more sophisticated customers and aggressive competitors. In this chapter we will look at how companies use the information gathered by marketing research, at the various ways they obtain this marketing research information, and at the career opportunities available in the marketing research industry. INFORMATION SYSTEMS, DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, AND MARKETING RESEARCH An information system (IS) is a continuing and interacting structure of people, equipment, and procedures designed to gather, sort, analyze, evaluate, and distribute pertinent, timely, and accurate information to decision makers. While marketing research is concerned mainly with the actual content of the information and how it is to be generated, the information system is concerned with managing the flow of data from many different projects and secondary sources to the managers who will use it. This requires databases to organize and store the information and a decision support system (DSS) to retrieve data, transform it into usable information, and disseminate it to users. Databases Information systems contain three types of information. The first is recurring day-to-day information, for example, the market and accounting data that flow into the organization as a result of market analysis research and accounting activities. Automobile firms use government sources for monthly data on new-car sales by brand and geographic area. In addition, surveys are conducted yearly to determine the ages and types of automobiles currently being driven, the lifestyles of the drivers (their activity and interest patterns), their media habits, and their intentions to replace their cars. The accounting department submits sales and inventory data for each of its dealers on a continuing basis, to update and supplement the information system. A second type of information is intelligence relevant to the future strategy of the business. Automobile firms, for example, collect reports about new sources of fuel to power automobiles. This information might come from scientific meetings, trade organizations, or perhaps from government reports. It also might include information from salespersons or dealers about newproduct tests being conducted by competitive firms. Intelligence is difficult to develop, because it usually involves diverse and changing sets of topic and information sources and is rarely collected systematically. A third input to the information system is research studies that are not of a recurring nature. The potential usefulness of a marketing research study can be multiplied manifold if the information is accessible instead of filed and forgotten. However, the potential exists that others may use the study, although perhaps not in the way it was originally intended. Decision Support Systems 30 Databases have no value if the insights they contain cannot be retrieved. A decision support system not only allows the manager to interact directly with the database to retrieve what is wanted, it also provides a modeling function to help make sense of what has been retrieved. A common example of a DSS in action is that used by many industrial salespeople—especially those selling products that require significant customization. The salesperson frequently will be INFORMATION SYSTEMS, DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, AND MARKETING RESEARCH asked whether or not the price and delivery time of a unique product configuration will meet or exceed a competitor’s promises. Without leaving the customer’s office, the salesperson can plug a laptop computer into a phone jack and begin communicating with a database stored in the company’s main computer memory. The salesperson types in the product configuration and desired delivery data, and these requirements are compared to the costs, inventory, and assembly time contained in the databank. In a matter of minutes, the salesperson can propose a price and delivery date—and perhaps close the sale. Each firm has to develop or adapt models to support its own decision problems. For example, Avon Products, Inc., the door-to-door cosmetics firm, has unique problems as the result of a part-time sales force of almost 400,000 representatives theoretically covering half of the 80 million households in North America. This sales force carries a large product line that each year adds 1,600 new or reformulated products. The following computer models were added to their DSS to help cope with these problems:4 ■ A sales force turnover model, which revealed that the most significant variable influencing the turnover rate was the level of the appointment fee that representatives pay for initial materials. ■ An order model that explains the components of the average order and isolates the actionable variables, such as the size and timing of the catalog and the gift incentives. ■ A procurement model that helps determine how much of a new product to buy, when to purchase it, and the risks involved. Applying Information Systems to Marketing Research Often the process of developing and using models and information systems reveals gaps in the databank that have to be closed. These emergent needs for information become a marketing research problem; for example, ■ Performance (sales, market share, contributions, patronage) may be unsatisfactory relative to objectives. Perhaps the condition can be traced to a specific geographic area, but the underlying reasons still must be sought before action can be taken. ■ A competitor may launch a new product or employ a new advertising appeal, with unknown consequences for the firm’s competitive position. ■ An unavoidable increase in costs puts pressures on profitability (or, in the case of a transit system, for example, increases subsidy requirements to an unacceptable level). Various possible increases in prices (or fares) must be evaluated. ■ An upsurge in interest in health and nutrition may suggest to a snack company a new product line directed toward responding to this interest. Concept testing might be a first step in exploring this opportunity. Given the sometimes chaotic and usually uncertain nature of most market environments, a large number of problems and some opportunities can emerge. Few will ever be given formal consideration. There may be no further need for clarification, the implications may not appear serious, or the response may appear evident in the judgment of the decision maker. Our interest is in those problems or opportunities that need to be clarified, whose consequences are uncertain, or that involve the development of new programs, products, or services. The information system serves to emphasize that marketing research should not exist in isolation as a single effort to obtain information. Rather, it should be part of a systematic and continuous effort by the organization to improve the decision-making process. Marketing Research in Action 2-1 describes the “fourth wave” in marketing research, telling how marketing research has progressed from the rudimentary to the sophisticated. 31 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 2-1 The Fourth Wave in Marketing Research Much of the initial interest in marketing research came about during the transition from a sales-oriented to a marketing-oriented business environment. In the First Wave, seat-of-the-pants decision making progressed to a databased decision. But, with more data available, a large problem arose: A handful of data was helpful; a truckload was not necessarily better. So, in the Second Wave, the progression was from databased decision to information-based decision making. Rather than review a multitude of individual facts, the role of marketing research evolved to manipulate data to summarize the underlying patterns. Unfortunately, much of the criticism of marketing research today is a result of this excessive focus on methodology and statistics. The problem now with marketing research was not centered on incompetent analysis, but the lack of a decision-maker’s perspective and the inability to provide actionable insights consistently once the data were analyzed correctly. In the Third Wave, we progressed from information-based decision making to system-based decision making. The Third Wave involved a number of developments centered on automated decision systems (ADS) that put the power of marketing information directly into the hands of nontechnical decision makers. It was a three-way marriage between marketing analysis, computer and information technologies, and the formal marketing planning process. The team approach, including marketing researchers, systems engineers, and marketing management, provided the synergy needed to build useful computer-based systems that helped managers through the marketing planning and evaluation process. Through pooling expertise and applying information technologies, the full potential of marketing information was realized in the Third Wave. Finally, in the Fourth Wave, the emergence of e-commerce and large customer databases has motivated organizations to move from an aggregate-level summarization of data (in order to uncover the underlying patterns as in the Second Wave) to a manipulation of data on an individual-by-individual basis. A majority of organizations currently are leveraging the technology developed during the Third Wave and the rich information they have about each individual customer, to tailor both their product/ service and marketing messages on an individual customer basis. Also called mass-customization, this strategy develops relations with every customer that an organization possesses and finally allows managers to assess the lifetime value of every individual customer to the organization. SOURCE: Adapted from Kumar, Aaker, and Day, “Essentials of Marketing Research,” 2nd ed. [2002], John Wiley & Sons, Inc.; and “Third Wave of Marketing Research on the Horizon,” Marketing News [March 1, 1993], p. 6. MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS 32 A typical marketing manager regularly receives some or all of the following data: factory shipments or orders; syndicated aggregate (industry) data services; sales reports from the field sales force; consumer panel data; scanner data; demographic data; and internal cost and budget data. These data may also come in various levels of detail and aggregation. Often they use different reporting periods and incompatible computer languages. Add to this sales estimates about competing brands and advertising, promotion, and pricing activity, and there is a data explosion. Managers don’t want data. They want, and need, decision-relevant information in accessible and preferably graphical form for (1) routine comparisons of current performance against past trends on each of the key measures of effectiveness, (2) periodic exception reports to assess which sales territories or accounts have not matched previous years’ purchases, and (3) special analyses to evaluate the sales impact of particular marketing programs, and to predict what would happen if changes were made. In addition, different divisions would like to be linked to enable product managers, sales planners, market researchers, financial analysts, and production schedulers to share information. The purpose of a marketing decision support system (MDSS) is to combine marketing data from diverse sources into a single database which line managers can enter interactively to quickly identify problems and obtain standard, periodic reports, as well as answers to analytical questions. MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS Manager Modeling Display Analysis Database Environment FIGURE 2-1 The four components of a MDSS. Characteristics of a MDSS A good MDSS should have the following characteristics. 1. Interactive: The process of interaction with the MDSS should be simple and direct. With just a few commands the user should be able to obtain the results immediately. There should be no need for a programmer in between. 2. Flexible: A good MDSS should be flexible. It should be able to present the available data in either discrete or aggregate form. It should satisfy the information needs of the managers in different hierarchical levels and functions. 3. Discovery oriented: The MDSS should not only assist managers in solving the existing problems but should also help them to probe for trends and ask new questions. The managers should be able to discover new patterns and be able to act on them using the MDSS. 4. User friendly: The MDSS should be user friendly. It should be easy for the managers to learn and use the system. It should not take hours just to figure out what is going on. Most MDSS packages are menu driven and are easy to operate. A typical MDSS is assembled from four components (see Figure 2-1). Database The database contains data from all sources, stored in a sufficiently disaggregated way so that it can be analyzed by product item, sales district, trade account, or time period. The best systems have databases that can be easily updated with new information and have sufficient flexibility that data can be readily analyzed in new ways. Since most analyses deal with a subset of a larger database, the supporting software should permit random access to any and all data to create appropriate subsets. Reports and Displays The capabilities of a MDSS range from simple ad-hoc tables and reports to complex plots, charts, and other graphic displays. Any report or display can include calculations such as variances and running totals, or the results of statistical procedures found in the system. Typical reports produced with a MDSS include status reports that track current trends, exception reports on troubled brands and markets, and variance reports showing budget and actuals for sales and profits. The report in Figure 2-2 answers the question: “In which regions is the Mama Mia brand not keeping up with the industry trend?” Figure 2-2 shows that product category sales were up 5.8 percent, whereas Mama Mia sales were up only 2.0 percent. On a more detailed level, product category sales were 33 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE Comparison Matrix Issue 203 Ending April 2, 2003 % Change in Category Sales vs One Year Ago 28.7 20.3 13.3 13.1 12.8 12.8 11.6 10.9 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.5 8.5 8.4 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.9 Above U.S. Average Below % Change in Mia Sales vs One Year Ago Memphis San Antonio Oklahoma City Cleveland Kansas City Detroit Cincinnati/Dayton Indianapolis 9.8 14.0 10.5 6.5 9.3 4.1 4.1 0.0 Houston Milwaukee Norfolk/Richmond 6.3 ⫺0.4 0.9 Phoenix/Tucson Minneapolis/St. Paul Omaha/Des Moines St. Louis 6.4 8.4 6.3 12.1 ⫺1.5 Pittsburgh Buffalo New Orleans Albany/Schenectady 7.1 7.7 ⫺4.5 New York Salt Lake City Boston/Providence Dallas/Ft. Worth Jacksonville Syracuse 3.1 11.1 7.7 6.7 7.8 1.3 Charlotte 4.0 Portland Nashville/Knoxville 3.6 3.2 Denver 2.6 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.9 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.2 0.3 ⫺0.6 ⫺2.3 ⫺5.2 Birmingham/Mobile ⫺0.9 Baltimore/Washington ⫺3.1 Seattle/Tacoma Atlanta Miami Chicago Los Angeles/San Diego Philadelphia Raleigh/Greensboro San Francisco Below 7.1 10.1 ⫺0.3 1.3 ⫺0.2 ⫺4.7 ⫺0.2 ⫺9.6 2.0 U.S. Average Above FIGURE 2-2 Comparison of brand performance with industry trend. up 13.1 percent in Cleveland and 1.7 percent in Miami, while Mama Mia sales rose 6.5 percent in Cleveland and fell 0.3 percent in Miami. Analysis Capabilities 34 Analysis capabilities are used to relate the data to the models, as well as to clarify relationships, identify exceptions, and suggest courses of action. These capabilities should include the ability to make calculations such as averages, lags, and percentage changes versus a previous period, and to conduct seasonal analyses and standard statistical procedures such as regression, correlation, and factor analysis. These procedures will be covered in subsequent chapters of this book. MARKETING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS Models Models represent assumptions about how the world works, and specifically how brand sales, shares, and profits respond to changes in elements of the marketing mix. Models are used to test alternative marketing programs, answer “what if” questions, and assist in setting more realistic objectives. For example, managers want help with such questions as: What is the impact on profitability of achieving wider distribution? What is the optimal call level for each sales representative for each account and prospect? What objectives should be set for coupon redemption and the profitability of promotion programs? The models used to address these questions can range from forecasts to complex simulations of relationships among marketing, economic, and other factors. Using a MDSS offers the organization a number of advantages. It results in substantial cost savings, because it helps in making better and quicker decisions. The presence of a MDSS forces the decision maker to view the decision and information environment within which he or she operates; hence, it leads to a better understanding of the decision environment. Since managers can now retrieve and utilize information that was never accessible before, it results in the enhancement of decision-making effectiveness. Using a MDSS results in better quality and quantity of data being collected and hence increases the value of the information to managers. Gaining Insights from a MDSS When an over-the-counter (OTC) drug manufacturer suffered a decline in national unit market share for its drug “Alpha,” management turned to a MDSS for insights. They suspected the losses would be traced to actions of the two main competitors. “Beta” was a private-label competitor that was sold at half the price of Alpha. The other competing brand, “Delta,” was produced and marketed by another division of the same company, following a rather similar strategy. Initial data from the decision support system seemed to confirm management’s initial suspicions. Alpha’s share had dropped from 5.0 percent to 2.5 percent, and Delta’s share had more than doubled, from 2.0 percent to 4.5 percent. However, subsequent analysis of the database showed that this information was misleading. The premise of the further analysis was that any competitive effects should be evident at the regional as well as the national level. To test this possibility, the market share changes of Alpha were related to share changes of Beta and Delta, by region, for a six-month period. The results, shown in Figure 2-3, confirmed the adverse effects of Beta on Alpha. In almost every region, a share decrease for Alpha was associated with a share increase for Beta. A different Change in Alpha’s Share in Share Points 0.5 Area 6 0.3 Area 3 0.0 Area 5 Area 1 ⴚ0.3 Area 2 Area 9 ⴚ0.5 ⴚ0.8 ⴚ1.0 ⴚ1.3 Area 7 Area 8 Area 4 ⴚ1.5 ⴚ1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Change in Beta’s Share in Share Points FIGURE 2-3 Regional market share changes—Alpha and Beta. 3.0 4.0 35 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE Change in Alpha’s Share in Share Points 0.50 0.25 Area 2 0.00 Area 5 Area 6 ⴚ0.25 Area 1 ⴚ0.50 Area 7 Area 9 Area 3 Area 8 ⴚ0.75 ⴚ1.00 Area 4 ⴚ1.25 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Change in Delta’s Share in Share Points FIGURE 2-4 Regional market share changes—Alpha and Delta. 3.0 3.5 picture emerged, however, when a similar analysis (shown in Figure 2-4) was done with Delta. In the regions where Alpha’s share had decreased the least, Delta’s share had increased the most. Conversely, Alpha’s share had decreased the most in those regions where Delta had gained the least share. Clearly, Delta was not the source of Alpha’s problems; more likely, Delta was helping Alpha by combining the two brands’ sales force efforts. This analysis prevented a potentially damaging interdivisional dispute and helped focus management’s attention on the proper target competitor. SUPPLIERS OF INFORMATION In general, managers can acquire the necessary information for decision making from two basic types of sources: 1. The corporate or in-house marketing research department 2. External suppliers Usually, managers use a mix of in-house and external approaches to solve a certain problem. Both can feed information directly to their clients, who are users with decision-making needs. More often, the outside suppliers get their direction and provide information to an inside research group. These inside suppliers translate the problems of their clients into specific information requirements, decide how the information will be collected and by whom, and then interpret the findings. Figure 2-5 shows the interaction among the participants in a marketing research activity. The purpose of this section is to discuss briefly the nature and attributes of the providers of marketing research services, the types of services they provide, and the factors that influence the choice of a suitable supplier for a given situation. Figure 2-6 gives a concise summary of the different types of information suppliers within the marketing research industry. Corporate/In-House Marketing Research 36 The location of the marketing research department within an organization and the strength of the department vary from firm to firm and to a very great extent depend on the requirements SUPPLIERS OF INFORMATION Information Users • • • • • General management Planning Marketing and sales managers Product managers Lawyers Information Suppliers: In Company • • • • Information Suppliers: Outside Company Marketing research department Sales analysis group Accounting department Corporate strategic planning • • • Research consultants Marketing research suppliers Advertising agencies FIGURE 2-5 Participants in marketing research activities. for information and the organizational structure of the firm. Some firms have a single centralized research department, housed in the corporate headquarters, which provides the information required to the various business units scattered geographically and/or functionally. The other extreme is the completely decentralized operation, wherein each business unit or geographic unit has its own research department. The type of structure adopted depends on the amount of information required, the frequency with which it is required, the uniqueness of the information, and the time available to collect it. In most major organizations, especially in multinational corporations, a mix of both these structures can be found. Information Supplier Corporate In-house Supplier Structured (independent department) External Supplier Unstructured (one or more MR employees) Customized Services Standardized Services Syndicated Services FIGURE 2-6 Information suppliers and services. Field Services Branded Product Services Selective Services 37 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE Not all organizations (regardless of size) have an in-house research establishment. Even among those that have an in-house research department, it is not unusual to seek the assistance of external suppliers. Virtually all research users at some time use the services of outside research specialists. Their role may be limited to raw-data collection, depending on the research approach, questionnaire, and sampling method provided by the client. At the other extreme, the client may assign the entire problem to an outside consultant who is responsible for every step to the completed report and action recommendations. Other possibilities are to bring in outside specialists for special problems (such as a sampling expert to draw a complex sample), or to employ services that have special facilities or data.5 Many related considerations influence the decision to go outside: 1. Internal personnel may not have the skills or experience. Few but the largest companies have specialists in all areas, from psychologists able to conduct focus group interviewing to electronics engineers with MBAs who have studied the telecommunications equipment market. 2. Outside help may be called in to boost internal capacity in response to an urgent deadline. 3. It may be cheaper to go outside. Specialists who have encountered similar problems with other clients probably are more efficient in dealing with the problem, and because they are not on the staff there is no risk of underutilization of their time. 4. Shared cost and multiclient studies coordinated by an outside supplier offer considerable savings possibilities. Multiclient studies are feasible when several organizations have related needs for information about a major topic, such as the future of electronic funds transfer systems. Each client pays an agreed share of the total cost. The ultimate in sharedcost studies are the large standardized data collection services, such as store audits of product sales activity or omnibus surveys, which combine questions from several clients. 5. Often, outside suppliers have special facilities or competencies (an established national interviewing field force, conference rooms with one-way mirrors, banks of telephone lines, or test kitchens) that would be costly to duplicate for a single study. 6. Political considerations may dictate the use of an outside research specialist whose credentials are acceptable to all parties in an internal policy dispute. Research people within the organization may be well advised to avoid being on one side or the other of a sensitive issue. 7. Marketing research is used increasingly in litigation or in proceedings before regulatory or legislative bodies. The credibility of the findings generally will be enhanced if the study is conducted by a respected outsider. Also, this kind of research often is subjected to critical questioning or cross-examination and is likely to stand up only if designed to high standards, which may exceed those used within the organization for routine decision-making purposes. External Suppliers of the Research Industry The marketing research industry consists of several hundred research firms, ranging from small, one-person operations to large corporations having operations in multiple countries. Table 2-1 lists the top 25 U.S. research firms and their annual revenues for the year 2008. The table also gives an estimate of the total revenue from foreign operations. According to Jack Honomichl, the president of Marketing Aid Center, Inc. (Barrington, IL) and the author of the Annual Industry Review, the U.S. marketing research industry is becoming more worldly and cosmopolitan. As can be seen from the table, the total revenue of the top 25 firms exceeds $21 billion, and more than one half of this revenue is estimated to come from foreign operations.6 The total revenue in 2008 represents a 1.6 percent growth over 2007. After adjusting for worldwide inflation, the real growth was ⫺2.2 percent, indicating a downturn in more than 20 years. 38 SUPPLIERS OF INFORMATION TABLE 2-1 Top 25 U.S. Research Organizations U.S. Ranks 2010 2009 Organization Headquarters 1 1 The Nielsen Co. New York 2 2 Kantar* London & Fairfield, Conn. Global Research Revenue ($, in millions) Revenues From Outside Parent Country ($, in millions) $4,958.0 $2,551.0 3,183.6 2,387.7 Percent of Global Revenues from Outside Home Country (%) 51.5% 75.0 3 3 IMS Health Inc.* Norwalk, Conn. 2,211.6 1,410.5 63.8 4 4 GfK SE Nuremberg 1,716.2 1,265.4 73.7 5 5 Ipsos SA Paris 1,512.8 1,383.0 91.4 6 6 Synovate London 884.8 776.3 87.7 7 7 SymphonylRI Group Chicago 727.0 270.0 37.1 8 8 Westat Inc. Rockville, Md. 455.3 — 9 10 INTAGE Inc.** Tokyo 416.2 12.7 3.1 10 9 Arbitron Inc. Columbia, Md. 395.4 5.0 1.3 — 11 12 The NPD Group Inc. Port Washington, N.Y. 240.1 66.4 27.7 12 11 J.D. Power and Associates* Westlake Village, Calif. 231.4 84.1 36.3 13 14 Video Research Ltd.** Tokyo 212.0 — — 14 17 IBOPE Group 210.8 38.8 18.4 15 — ICF International Inc. Fairfax, Va. 200.1 46.9 23.4 16 18 comScore Inc. 175.0 32.7 18.7 17 15 Harris Interactive Inc. New York 166.8 72.9 43.7 18 16 Maritz Research Fenton, Mo. 162.1 21.2 13.1 19 20 Abt SRBI Inc. Cambridge, Mass. 129.4 42.6 32.9 20 25 Macromill Inc. Tokyo 115.0 — — 21 22 Lieberman Research Worldwide Los Angeles 100.8 18.5 18.4 22 19 ORC International Princeton, N.J. 98.0 34.1 34.8 23 21 Mediametrie Paris 92.3 8.5 9.2 24 23 Cello Research & Consulting London 84.5 37.2 44.0 25 24 Market Strategies International Livonia, Mich. 80.7 13.1 16.2 $18,759.9 $10,578.6 Sao Paulo Reston, Va. Total 56.4% SOURCE: Jack Honomichl, “Top 25 Report,” Marketing News, August 30, 2011: p. 16. Regarding the performance of U.S. marketing research industry, the spending for marketing research services grew 1.5 percent in 2008, compared with 2007.7 Figure 2-7 provides the growth in research spending within U.S. between 1988 and 2008. While it is rather alarming to note that the least growth occurred in the most recently reported year, 2008; it may not come as a surprise given the difficult economic environment. Table 2.1 shows that in 2008, at least 20 out of the Top 25 firms reported income from outside the United States—typically through a branch office. For instance, $10.6 billion or 54 percent of the Top 50 firms’ total revenue came from outside the U.S. Therefore, it is important to understand that while focus on U.S. performance is necessary, cognizance of the global research industry potential is essential. The performance of the Global Top 10 firms in 2007 is covered in The International Marketing Research Industry section of this chapter. 39 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE 14.0 12.6% 12.0 11.6% 11.5% 10.1% 10.0 9.2% 9.5% 9.2% 9.9% 9.0% 8.6% 8.0 6.6% Percentage Growth 6.0 5.7% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0 6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.0 0.0 5.5% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 −0.0 −0.2 −0.4 −4% Year FIGURE 2-7 Growth in Research Spending within the United States. SOURCE: Jack Honomichl, “Top 50 Report,” Marketing News, June 30, 2011: p. 13. Type and Nature of Services External suppliers that collectively comprise the marketing research industry can be further classified into six different groups, depending on the type and nature of the services they provide. Based on Figure 2-6, the major types of services provided by external suppliers of information are discussed in the paragraphs that follow. Customized Services. Firms that specialize in customized services work with individual clients to help them develop and implement a marketing research project from top to bottom. They work with management on any given problem and go through the entire research process, including analyzing and presenting the final results. Syndicated Services. Syndicated services are companies that routinely collect information on several different issues and provide it to firms that subscribe to their services. The Nielsen Television Index, which provides information on audiences viewing different TV programs, is an example of such services. These suppliers also provide information on retail sales, household purchasing patterns, and so on, which they collect through scanner data. Standardized Services. Standardized services are market research projects conducted in a standard, prespecified manner and supplied to several different clients. The Starch Readership Survey is a typical example of such a service; it provides clients information regarding the effectiveness of print advertisements, in the form of Starch scores. 40 Field Services. Field services suppliers concentrate on collecting data for research projects. They specialize in various survey techniques such as mail surveys, telephone surveys, or personal surveys. These organizations range from small, one-person establishments to large, multinational, wide-area telephone service (WATS)-line interviewing services, and have extensive facilities for personal interviews in homes and shopping malls. Some of these firms specialize in qualitative data collection methods such as focus group interviews and projection techniques. THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH INDUSTRY Selective Services. Some companies specialize in just one or two aspects of marketing research, mainly concerned with data coding, data editing, or data analysis. These generally are small firms, sometimes referred to as “lab houses,” with expertise in sophisticated data analysis techniques. The proliferation of software for marketing research projects has led to an increase in such lab houses. Any enterprising individual with expertise in computer and sophisticated multivariate analysis techniques can acquire the necessary software packages and establish a firm specializing in data analysis. Branded Products Services. Some firms have developed specialized data collection and analysis procedures to address specific types of research problems, which they market as branded products. PRIZM, a Claritas Corporation product that forms clusters of the population on the basis of lifestyle and Zip Code classifications, is an example of one such branded product. Using this technique, the entire U.S. population is divided into 40 clusters. Author Michael J. Weiss, in his popular book, Clustering of America, New York, NY: Harper & Row Publishers (1988), provides a vivid portrait of the nation’s 40 neighborhood types—their values, lifestyles, and eccentricities. CRITERIA FOR SELECTING EXTERNAL SUPPLIERS Once the decision has been made to go outside, there remains the question of which consultant or supplier to retain. What criteria should a firm adopt in selecting an external research supplier? Several academic scholars have conducted research studies to identify the factors that are important in the selection of external suppliers. A crucial factor in the choice is the judgment as to whether the supplier or consultant actually can deliver the promised data, advice, or conclusions. This judgment should be made only after the following steps have been followed: 1. A thorough search for names of people and companies who have acknowledged expertise in the area of the study8 2. Selection of a small number of bidders on the basis of recommendations of colleagues or others who have had similar needs 3. Personal interviews with the person who would be responsible for the project, asking for examples of work on similar problems, their procedures for working with clients, and the names of previous clients who could provide references 4. A check of the references of each potential supplier, with special attention to comments on their depth of competence and expertise, their creativity in dealing with problems, and the quality and adequacy of resources available Selection is made on the basis of how well the problem and objectives have been understood,9 comments by the references, and whether the quoted price or fee is a good value in light of the research approach that is proposed. Seldom is the lowest quotation the best value. To minimize the problem of comparability, all bidders should respond to the same study specifications.10 THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH INDUSTRY The growing importance of the international components of the marketing research industry revenue reflects the fact that the United States accounts for over 60 percent of the combined global research revenue of the top 25 research organizations. United Kingdom accounts for 18 percent of research revenues, Japan accounts for 3 percent, and the remainder is accounted for by the rest of the world. Almost all major countries in the world, including the newly industrialized and 41 CHAPTER 2 MARKETING RESEARCH IN PRACTICE TABLE 2-2 Top 25 Global Research Organizations Organization Country No. of Countries with Subsidiaries/ Branch Offices Research only Full-time Employees Global Research Revenues (millions) Revenues from Outside Country, US$ (millions) The Nielsen Co. U.S. 100 32,900 $4,958.0 $2,551.0 Kantar* U.K. 80 21,800 3,183.6 2,387.7 IMS Health Inc.* U.S. 74 7,000 2,211.6 1,410.5 GfK SE Germany 65 10,546 1,716.2 1,265.4 Ipsos SA France 67 9,498 1,512.8 1,383.0 Synovate U.K. 64 5,902 884.8 776.3 270.0 SymphonylRI Group U.S. 8 3,600 727.0 Westat Inc. U.S. 1 1,964 455.3 — INTAGE Inc.** Japan 3 1,997 416.2 12.7 Arbitron Inc. U.S. 2 1,113 395.4 5.0 The NPD Group Inc. U.S. 14 1,135 240.1 66.4 J.D. Power and Associates* U.S. 10 730 231.4 84.1 Video Research Ltd.** Japan 3 393 212.0 — IBOPE Group Brazil 15 2,259 210.8 38.8 ICF International Inc. U.S. 7 1,107 200.1 46.9 comScore Inc. U.S. 18 922 175.0 32.7 Harris Interactive Inc. U.S. 7 853 166.8 72.9 Maritz Research U.S. 5 743 162.1 21.2 Abt SRBI Inc. U.S. 37 819 129.4 42.6 Macromill Inc. Japan 2 553 115.0 — Lieberman Research Worldwide U.S. 3 368 100.8 18.5 ORC International U.S. 6 444 98.0 34.1 Mediametrie France 1 547 92.3 8.5 Cello Research & Consulting U.K. 2 353 84.5 37.2 Market Strategies International U.S. 3 Total 257 80.7 13.1 107,803 $18,759.9 $10,578.6 SOURCE: Jack Honomichl, “Top 25 Global Research Organizations,” Marketing News, August 30, 2011: p. 16. developing countries have major marketing research organizations. Of the top 25, 14 companies grew their empires during 2007 primarily through acquisition.11 Table 2-2 lists the top 10 global marketing research organizations. CAREER OPPORTUNITIES IN MARKETING RESEARCH Marketing research offers several promising career opportunities,12 depending on one’s level of education, experience, interests, and personality. Interesting and exciting careers are available both within research supplier organizations—typically, external suppliers of marketing research 42 QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS services such as A.C. Nielsen, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), J.D. Power and Associates, and so on—and within companies that have their own research department. A brief description of marketing research jobs, the required level of education, the real level of experience, and the average annual compensation are provided in the Appendix of this chapter. Demand is outstripping the research industry’s supply of high-level data analysts, also known as marketing research methodologists. The marketing research methodologist is an individual who has a balanced and in-depth knowledge of the fields of statistics, psychometrics, marketing, and buyer behavior and applies that knowledge to describe and infer causal relationships from marketing data. Typically, today’s marketing research methodologist has specialized in one of the fields mentioned at the master’s and doctorate level. They will have to acquire considerable knowledge in the related fields through additional coursework, targeted in-depth readings, and ongoing communication and interaction with peer-level specialists. However, some wellknown methodologists emerged from the engineering and hard science disciplines while others migrated from political science, sociology, agricultural science, geology, and anthropology. A well-rounded research methodologist would include the following coursework in his or her program of study: ■ Probability and statistics ■ Sociology ■ Multivariate statistics ■ Buyer behavior ■ Human psychology ■ Microeconomics ■ Organizational psychology ■ Marketing management ■ Psychometric measurement ■ Business communications ■ Marketing research ■ Social media marketing The need for advanced analytical techniques has been accelerating for the last several years as both research companies and corporate research departments become more familiar with the power and utility of newer methodologies. A sharp dissonance between supply and demand is fostering: 1. Erroneous execution and delivery of advanced analyses by unqualified research analysts 2. Failure to recommend advanced methodologies by independent research organizations and consultants Therefore, marketing researchers must work with other interested parties to remedy the situation and offer support for the marketing methodologist position. The specialty of the marketing research methodologist will assume an ever-increasing role in the business of marketing research.13 Summary The focus of marketing research has shifted from ad-hoc methods to collecting data and helping managers make informed, knowledgeable decisions. The marketing decision support system is the latest in a series of developments that help marketing managers use the information they obtain in a more meaningful manner. Marketing research is a key component of the MDSS because it provides one of the main inputs into the system. Marketing research can either be done in house or bought from outside suppliers. A number of market research companies provide many services, both syndicated and customized. 43 Questions and Problems 1. 2. 3. a. How do marketing information systems aid marketers in their decision making? b. What types of information can be obtained from marketing information systems? What are the inherent characteristics of an effective marketing decision support system? A marketing manager needs to find the causes for the decline in market share of his or her company’s product. The manager decides to conduct marketing research. 4. a. How should he or she go about finding a supplier of research services? b. Suppose the manager decides to introduce the product in Europe. A study needs to be conducted to assess the acceptance of the product in various markets. What criteria should the manager use in selecting a research supplier? Identify three examples of identification of market opportunities or marketing problems from recent secondary data sources. End Notes 1. Sil Seggev, “Listening Is Key to Providing Useful Marketing Research,” Marketing News, January 22, 1982, p. 6. 2. Kenneth R. Wade, “The When/What Research Decision Guide,” Marketing Research: A Magazine of Management & Applications, 5, Summer 1993, pp. 24–27. 3. “Marketing: The New Priority,” Business Week, November 21, 1983, p. 96. 4. Cyndee Miller, “Computer Modelling Rings the Right Bell for Avon,” Marketing News, May 9, 1988, p. 14. 5. Paul Boughton, “Marketing Research Partnerships: A Strategy for the ’90s,” Marketing Research: A Magazine of Management and Applications, 4, December 1992, pp. 8–13. 6. Jack Honomichl, “Top 50 Report,” Marketing News, June 39, 2009: 12. 7. Jack Honomichl, “Top 50 Report,” Marketing News, June 39, 2009: 12. 8. Useful sources are Greenbook: International Directory of Marketing Research Houses and Services, New York: American Marketing Association, annual; Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory, Detroit: Gale Research Co., triennial with annual supplements; and Bradfords Directory of Marketing Research Agencies in the U.S. and Around the World, Appendix Marketing Research Jobs Visit http://www.drvkumar.com/MR11. 44 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Fairfax, VA: Bradford Publishing Co., 1984. A list of the top 300 companies that specialize in focusgroup interviewing techniques appears in the January issues of Marketing News. Marketing News provides a directory of software for marketing research application. Raymond D. Speer, “Follow These Six Steps to Get Most Benefit from Marketing Research Consultant Project,” Marketing News, September 18, 1981, pp. 12–13. Marketing News publishes a directory of international marketing research firms on a regular basis. Jack Honomichl, “Top firms consolidated grip on industry,” Marketing News, August 15, 2008: H2. Thomas C. Kinnear and Ann R. Root, Survey of Marketing Research Chicago American Marketing Association, 1996, Carl McDaniel and Roger Gates, Contemporary Marketing Research, Minneapolis, MN: West Publishing Co., 26. Marketing News on a regular basis publishes a directory of marketing research firms located within research users such as Coca-Cola, AT&T, etc., in their in-house research department. William D. Neal, “The Marketing Research Methodologist,” Marketing Research, Spring 1998, Vol. 10, 1, pp. 21–25. THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS 3 Learning Objectives ■ Be familiar with the various stages of the marketing research process. ■ Highlight the importance of the problem/opportunity identification stage of the research process. ■ Understand the issues related to hypotheses development. ■ Explain the concept of value of information, and its role in deciding when marketing research is beneficial. ■ Introduce the international marketing research process. How is the market research project conceived, planned, and executed? The answer, in part, is through a research process, consisting of stages or steps that guide the project from its conception through the final analysis, recommendation, and ultimate action. The research process provides a systematic, planned approach to the research project and ensures that all aspects of the research project are consistent with each other. It is especially important that the research design and implementation be consistent with the research purpose and objectives. Otherwise, the results will not help the client. The research process is described in this chapter and Chapter 4. This chapter provides an overview of the research process, a discussion of the research purpose and research objectives, and a consideration of the value of research information. Negative findings are as valuable as positive ones. In fact, they are often more revealing, as they provide valuable insight into customers’ psyches. Today, the research process has evolved to encompass decision making. This combined process transforms mundane marketing research to marketing intelligence. Chapter 4 gives an overview of the research design and its implementation. Together, these two chapters are the foundation for the rest of the book. OVERVIEW OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS Research studies evolve through a series of steps, each representing the answer to a key question. 1. Why should we do research? This establishes the research purpose as seen by the management team that will be using the results. This step requires understanding the decisions to be made and the problems or opportunities to be diagnosed. 2. What research should be done? Here the management purpose is translated into objectives that tell the managers exactly what questions need to be answered by the research study or project. 3. Is it worth doing the research? The decision has to be made here about whether the value of the information that will likely be obtained is going to be greater than the cost of collecting it. 45 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS 4. How should the research be designed to achieve the research objectives? Design issues include the choice of research approach—reliance on secondary data versus conducting a survey or experiment—and the specifics of how to collect the data. Chapter 4 deals with how to approach these issues. 5. What will we do with the research? Once the data have been collected, how will it be analyzed, interpreted, and used to make recommendations for action? The necessary steps are linked in a sequential process (see Figure 3-1). Although the steps usually occur in this general order, we must emphasize that “early” decisions are always made by looking ahead to “later” decisions. The early decisions are constantly being modified to MARKETING PLANNING AND INFORMATION SYSTEM Planning system Strategic plans • Tactical plans Information system • Databases • DSS • 1. AGREE ON RESEARCH PROCESS • • • Problems or opportunities Decision alternatives Research users 2. ESTABLISH RESEARCH OBJECTIVES • • • Research questions Hypotheses Boundaries of study 3. ESTIMATE THE VALUE OF INFORMATION No Is benefit > cost? Yes 4. DESIGN THE RESEARCH • • • • Choose among alternative research approaches Specify the sampling plan Design the experiment Design the questionnaire 5. COLLECT THE DATA 6. PREPARE AND ANALYZE THE DATA 7. REPORT THE RESEARCH RESULTS AND PROVIDE STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS 46 FIGURE 3-1 The marketing research process. DO NOT CONDUCT MARKETING RESEARCH THE PRELIMINARY STAGES OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS account for new insights and possibilities presented by later decisions. Also, the steps do not function in isolation. Rather, they are embedded in the ongoing planning process of the business, which culminates in the development of strategies, programs, and action. This planning process provides the purposes of the research. In turn, planning is supported by the information system, which (1) anticipates the type of information required by decision makers and (2) organizes data that have been collected to ensure their availability when needed. The development of a research purpose that links the research to decision making, and the formulation of research objectives that serve to guide the research, are unquestionably the most important steps in the research process. If they are correct, the research stands a good chance of being both useful and appropriate. If they are bypassed or wrong, the research almost surely will be wasteful and irrelevant. These aspects of research, too often neglected by managers, will be discussed in detail in this chapter. The next chapter deals with research design; the chapters in Part II discuss the various methods to collect data; and the chapters in Part III of the book deal with analysis and interpretation of the data. THE PRELIMINARY STAGES OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS Step 1—Research Purpose Research problems are more likely to be poorly defined, only partially understood, and missing possible decision alternatives that should be analyzed. Defining problems accurately is a combination of data and judgment that demands real thought and effort. Problems, opportunities, and “nonproblem” situations are closely related to structure. Together they make up a family of gaps. The concept of analyzing the gaps as problems is based on: 1. Recognizing/understanding a problem. A problem is a gap between what was supposed to happen and what did happen between our objective and our accomplishment. Three elements are required to recognize a problem: ■ Something must be expected to happen. ■ Feedback must be received on what actually happens. ■ Expectations and feedback must be compared. 2. Knowing where and when the gap or problem occurred. Once a problem is defined, it is easier to approach the cause and solution to the gap(s), in accordance with the level of detail of the analysis. In the end, problem definition is and will always be a creative act, a balance between thorough research and intuition. Problem definition is best thought of as a solution definition—the selection of a domain is likely to be rich in ideas to solve the problem. Problem definition is a creative act. The payoff from good marketing definition is enormous—nothing else we do has so much leverage on profit.1 Seldom will research problems come neatly packaged with obvious information requirements, clear-cut boundaries, and pure motives on the part of the decision makers. Launching a research study with such shaky inputs is a recipe for producing unusable findings and unhappy clients. It is in the best interest of both the researcher and the managers paying for the research to be sure that the research purpose is fully understood. One of the hallmarks of a competent researcher is the ability to get to the heart of the management problem. Consider the seemingly straightforward request by the chairperson of an association of community merchants for a research project. The objective of this project was to help reduce the propensity of residents in the community to do their shopping in two nearby communities. Clearly, the purpose of the research was to identify and evaluate various ways to increase the local merchants’ share of shopping by residents. Further probing, however, revealed that the statement of the problem was at least partially inaccurate. Only late in the research process was it learned by the researcher that the chairperson 47 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS was having real difficulty convincing the other local merchants that there was a serious enough outflow of local trade to warrant joint action to reverse the flow. This certainly changed the purpose of the research. Now the researcher would have to measure the level of retail trade outflow, in addition to finding the reasons for the outflow. This required a major change in the research design, but had the change not been made the results would have been of little value to the client. The research purpose comprises a shared understanding between the manager and the researcher of: 1. Problems or opportunities to be studied ■ Which problems or opportunities are anticipated? ■ What is the scope of the problems and the possible reasons? 2. Decision alternatives to be evaluated ■ What are the alternatives being studied? ■ What are the criteria for choosing among the alternatives? ■ What is the timing or importance of the decision? 3. Users of the research results ■ Who are the decision makers? ■ Are there any covert purposes? Problem or Opportunity Analysis. In analyzing problems or studying opportunities, identifying loyal customers and doing targeted marketing are very important. Marketing Research in Action 3-1 reiterates the importance of market research and databased marketing in creating “top of mind awareness” of their products. Research often is motivated by a problem or opportunity. The fact that sales are below expectations in the East might be a problem requiring research. The fact that people are consuming fewer sweets might be a problem or a potential opportunity for a candy company. Increased leisure time might be viewed as an opportunity by a recreation-oriented organization. In such cases the research purpose should specify the problem or opportunity to be explored. Identifying and defining the problem or opportunity is a crucial first step in the marketing research process. Especially in situation analysis contexts, exploratory research is needed to identify problems and opportunities. What sales areas are showing weak performance? What segments represent opportunities because they are dissatisfied with current products or because they are underusing the product? Even in exploratory research, however, it will be helpful to identify MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-1 What Do Today’s Buyers Want? Today’s buyers have created changes for all businesses. They are ■ Skeptical—their trust has been broken by every industry. ■ Cautious—they take a lot of time to weigh decisions. ■ Tired of selling and sales pressure—they are weary of spam and telephone sales. ■ Busy—they want everything quick and easy. ■ Confused—they are bewildered with the variety of offers. Today’s buyers have access to information because of the Internet, and they can make better decisions because of the global market available for choice. Marketers have to create a “top of mind awareness” of their products. To do this, they have to constantly inform buyers about their products without irritating them. This means they have to identify their most loyal customers and do a great deal of targeted marketing. This is possible only through marketing research and databased marketing. Once marketers have identified their customers, it’s very easy to find buyers with a similar profile and generate loyal, profit-generating customers. 48 SOURCE: findmorebuyers.com/page.cfm/11, January 2003. THE PRELIMINARY STAGES OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-2 Best Buy Goes Lean Best Buy, with intense competition from competitors, has slashed capital spending for 2009 budget by half along with buy outs and layoffs. Given Best Buy’s emphasis on its personnel, the suggestion of layoffs demonstrates a change in long-held priorities. Best Buy faces intense competition mainly from retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco coming after mainstay businesses including television, digital cameras and gaming. For instance, television shoppers at Best Buy are going for less expensive sets, especially for their second or third TVs. Further, consumers replacing their TVs are settling for 34-inch screens from 42-inch screens. Best Buy’s competitors use fewer employees to run the electronics business throughout and continue to figure out ways to sell electronics right off the rack rather than through a sales clerk. By becoming leaner, Best Buy is preparing itself for a competitive reality where consumers are becoming more considered about spending and where discounters and warehouse clubs are the major competition. SOURCE: Mike Duff, “Best Buy Goes Leaner As Customers Waver, Competitors Press,” BNET Retail, December 19, 2008. the nature of the problem or opportunity that is motivating the research. Further, the goal should be to move from exploratory research to research more focused on a decision. Marketing Research in Action 3-2 illustrates the process of changing marketing approach by reacting to market situations. The manager needs to make certain that the real problem is being addressed. Sometimes the recognized problem is only a symptom, or perhaps merely a part of a larger problem. A sobering illustration of this is the plight of Compton Corp.,2 a manufacturer of capital equipment costing between $10,000 and $25,000. The company was dominant in its market, with a share as large as the next two biggest competitors. All the companies sold their equipment through a network of independent distributors, each of which sold the products of at least two competitors. For several years this market leader had been losing share. In an attempt to reverse the trend, the company changed advertising agencies. When the new agents funded a study of end users, they found to their surprise that the previous agency had done a superb job of creating awareness and favorable attitudes. However, many of the equipment purchasers who favored Compton were actually buying the competing brands. This problem had little to do with the performance of the advertising agency. A new study, oriented toward the distributors, found that Compton’s distributor-relations program was very weak relative to its competitors. One competitor emphasized sales contests, another offered cash bonuses to salespeople, and a third was particularly effective with technical sales assistance directed to difficult accounts. Not surprisingly, these factors influenced the distributors when they were asked for advice, or when the prospective purchaser did not have a firm commitment to Compton equipment. In this case, the real problem ultimately was isolated, but only after much time and energy had been directed toward the wrong problem. When defining the problem, it is important to think broadly about the possible causes or influential variables. This may justify a separate exploratory research study. Further, what appears to be a genuine problem or opportunity may not be researchable. For example, if a company that manufactures washing machines is interested in determining the replacement rates for all machines sold within the last three years, it may not be worthwhile to pursue the issue. Since most household washing machines have a life span ranging from five to 10 years, the problem of identifying the replacement rate for working machines sold within the last three years may be a nonresearchable problem. Decision Alternatives. For research to be effective, it must be associated with a decision. Marketing research is committed to the principle of utility. In general, if research is not going to have an effect on decisions, it is an exercise in futility. The researcher should always be sensitive to the possibility that either there are no decision alternatives—and therefore no decision—or that the research findings will not affect the decision, usually because of resource or organizational 49 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS constraints. In such circumstances, the research will have no practical value and probably should not be conducted. When a decision potential does exist, it is important to identify it explicitly, because the research then can be designed for maximum effectiveness. For example, researchers frequently are asked to assess the potential of a market that is not familiar to the company. But what are the decisions the manager faces? Is the manager thinking of acquiring a company serving that market? Has the lab produced a new product that might be sold as a component to the industry serving that market? The answers will have a significant influence on the design of the research. A most useful way to clarify the decision motivating the research is to ask: (1) What alternative actions are being considered? (2) What actions would be taken, given the various feasible outcomes of the research? This line of questioning can be very enlightening for the decision maker, as well as for the researcher, in terms of clarifying exactly what the research can accomplish. The story in Marketing Research in Action 3-3 illustrates how both can learn from a focus on decisions. Sometimes the decision involved is highly specific. A copy test is used to select a copy alternative. A concept test is employed to determine if a concept should be developed further. Sometimes the decision can be very general. What markets should be the primary targets of our organization? Should our marketing program be changed? It is desirable to be as specific as possible, because the research purpose then will be more effective in guiding the development of the research design. However, even if the decision is necessarily general, it needs to be stated clearly. Criteria for Choosing Among Alternatives. It is essential for the researcher to know how the decision maker will choose among the available alternatives. Suppose a product manager is considering three possible package redesigns for a health-care product with declining sales. This would seem to be a straightforward research undertaking, as the decision alternatives are completely specified. However, the product manager could use some or all of the following criteria to choose the best of the three alternative packages: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Long-run sales Trial purchases by users of competing brands Amount of shelf space assigned to the brand Differentiation from competitive packages Brand-name recognition MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-3 50 Political Campaign Research The meeting between Hugh Godfrey and two project directors from Pollsters Anonymous, a well-known survey research company, had taken a surprising turn. Here were two researchers suggesting that no research be undertaken. Godfrey was campaign manager for John Crombie, a university professor and erstwhile Democratic challenger of the Republican incumbent for the local House of Representatives seat. He and his candidate were anxious to undertake a program of research. They thought it would be a good idea to take surveys in May and September (five months and six weeks prior to the election) of voter awareness of the candidate, attitudes toward him, issue salience, and intentions to vote. The results would be helpful in clarifying the candidate’s position and deciding on media expenditures. Positive results would be useful in soliciting campaign contributions, which loomed as a big problem. During the meeting the researchers had asked what Godfrey expected to find. He was sure that the initial survey would reveal low awareness, and would confirm other information he had that there was a low level of voter registration among Democrats in the area. The next question was whether any foreseeable results would persuade him not to spend all his available resources on a voter registration drive. He also admitted that the preliminary estimate of $6,000 for a May survey was a large chunk of his available funds. In fact, he was thinking, “With the money I would spend on the survey, I could hire enough canvassers to get at least 1,500 to 2,000 registrations.” THE PRELIMINARY STAGES OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS The researcher and decision maker need to discuss all possible criteria in advance, and choose those that are appropriate. If the criterion for comparison is long-run sales results, the research approach will be much more elaborate than if the choice is based simply on brand-name recognition. Timing and Importance. Timing and importance are always pivotal issues in the research process. How crucial is the decision? If the wrong decision is made, what will be the consequences? Obviously, the decision to “go national” with a new government program represents a much larger commitment than the decision to pursue a new program idea a bit further. Other questions concern the timing of the decision. What is the time pressure on the decision? Is information needed quickly, or is there time to develop an optimal research design? Research Users—Decision Makers. When the research results will be used to guide internal problem solving, the researcher must know the objectives and expectations of the actual decision makers. The bigger the problem, the more difficult this becomes, for not only are a large number of people likely to be involved, but the contact person may simply be acting as a liaison whose interpretation of the problem and the need for research may be secondhand. The major benefit from making an effort to reach all the decision makers is that the research purpose is likely to be specified more adequately. These contacts also will tell the researcher (especially an outside supplier who is called in to undertake the work) a good deal about the resources that are available to deal with the problem. This is very helpful in developing a realistic proposal. Increasingly, marketing research is entering the public domain, which introduces a new set of users who frequently have very different criteria for evaluating research results. For example: ■ A public utility presents a research study to a regulatory body in support of a request for a rate change or the introduction of a change in service level. ■ An industry trade association conducts research designed to influence proposed legislation or trade regulations. The Direct Mail Marketing Association has sponsored a study of mail-order buyers in response to a proposed Federal Trade Commission order that would require sellers to offer a refund if they could not ship the ordered goods within a month. ■ A regional transit agency wants to build public support for the continuation of an experi- mental program involving “dedicated” bus lanes (part of a road or highway on which no automobile traffic is permitted). The research demonstrating the effectiveness of the program is to be presented to various public bodies and citizen groups. In most cases, the research in the above examples will be used to support a decision alternative. However, examination of the results often is conducted in an adversarial setting, which means more criticism of shortcomings and necessitates a higher quality of research. Overt and Covert Purposes. It would be naive to presume that research is always conducted to facilitate rational problem-solving activity or that the decision maker always will be willing or able to share reasons for initiating the research. As discussed in Chapter 1, there are times when the main purpose of marketing research is to serve someone’s organizational goals or for other unethical purposes. None of these abuses can be condoned. Often they are specifically prohibited by industry codes of ethics. When they are not, one’s moral standards become the compass for deciding what is right. Step 2—Research Objective The research objective is a statement, in as precise terminology as possible, of what information is needed. The research objective should be framed so that obtaining the information will ensure that the research purpose is satisfied. 51 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS Research objectives have three components. The first is the research question. It specifies the information the decision maker needs. The second and third elements help the researcher make the research question as specific and precise as possible. The second element is the development of hypotheses that are basically alternative answers to the research question. The research determines which of these alternative answers is correct. It is not always possible to develop hypotheses, but the effort should be made. The third is the scope or boundaries of the research. For example, is the interest in current customers only or in all potential customers? Research Question. The research question asks what specific information is required to achieve the research purpose. If the research question is answered by the research, then the information should aid the decision maker. An illustration comes from a company in the toiletries and cosmetics business, which was interested in acquiring a smaller firm with an apparently complementary product line. One anticipated benefit of the acquisition was the opportunity to eliminate one of the sales forces. The purpose of the research was to assess whether the company could use its existing sales force to distribute the products of the acquired company. The corresponding research objective was to determine how much the retail distribution patterns of the two companies overlapped. There was some preliminary evidence suggesting (that is, hypothesizing) that distribution coverage would differ by geographic area and store type. The resulting study found that there was very little overlap, because the acquiring company emphasized major metropolitan areas, whereas the other company was represented largely in smaller cities and suburbs. It is possible to have several research questions for a given research purpose. Thus, if the purpose is to determine if a specific advertisement should be run, the following research questions could be posed: ■ Will the advertisement be noticed? ■ Will it be interpreted accurately? ■ Will it influence attitudes? These questions correspond to the criteria used to evaluate the advertising alternatives. Similarly, if the purpose is to determine how to improve the services of a bank, possible research questions might be ■ What aspects of the current service are customers most pleased with, and with which are they most dissatisfied? ■ What types of customers use the various services? ■ What benefits do people seek from banks? 52 Each of these questions should pass the test of being relevant to the purpose. For example, if customer types are identified that use a service such as traveler’s checks, it may be possible to modify that service to make it more convenient or attractive to them. Sometimes the researcher can select a major objective and some supporting objectives. An example is a study conducted for the U.S. Department of Defense to address the problem of declining strength of the National Guard and the reserve components such as the Army Reserve.3 The research purpose was to determine what job characteristics (product dimensions) would increase the enlistment levels and the reenlistment levels of various demographic types. Job characteristics such as salary, fringe benefits, educational opportunity, travel, job image, and hair regulations were among the possible policy variables that could be adjusted. The overall objective of the study, to examine motivation factors in enlistment and reenlistment, led to several supporting objectives. The first of these was to measure young people’s propensity to serve (or reenlist). The second was to determine current perceptions of the reserve in terms of 12 key attributes. The third was to determine the relative importance of the 12 key job attributes that could provide the basis for influencing young men and women to join and remain in the service. THE PRELIMINARY STAGES OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS The researcher will always try to make the research question as specific as possible. Suppose the research question as to which customer types use the various bank services could be replaced by the following research question: What are the lifestyle and attitude profiles of the users of credit cards, automatic overdraft protection, and traveler’s checks? This increase in specificity would aid the researcher in developing the research design by suggesting whom to survey and what questions to include. The role of the research objective is to provide guidance to the research design. The more specific the research question is, the more practical guidance will be provided. When a research question is set forth, it is sometimes difficult to realize that the question can and should be made more specific. The remaining two elements of the research objective— hypothesis development and the research boundaries—provide exercises to help the researcher make the research question more specific. Hypothesis Development. A hypothesis is a possible answer to a research question. The researcher should always take the time and effort to speculate as to possible research question answers that will emerge from the research. In doing so, the fact that everyone already knows the answer sometimes becomes apparent. More often, the effort will add a considerable degree of specificity to the research question. A hypothesis could speculate that sales are down in the Northeast because the level of competition has been abnormally high there during the past two months. Such a hypothesis provides considerable detail to a research question that asks what the problem is in the Northeast. It guides the research by ensuring that competitive promotions are included in the research design. One important role of a hypothesis is to suggest variables to be included in the research design—in this case, competitive promotion. A research problem might be to estimate the demand for a new product. The hypothesis that the product will do well in the North but not in the South adds the concept of geographic location to the problem. It suggests that the sampling plan should include people from both regions. If the hypothesis suggests that the product will not do well in the South because it is not compatible with the Southern lifestyle, it becomes evident that the research should measure not only purchase intentions, but also how the product would be used. Normally, there will be several competing hypotheses, either specified or implied. If all the hypotheses were known in advance to be true, there would be little reason to conduct the research. Thus, one objective of research is to choose among the possible hypotheses. A good illustration of the role of competing hypotheses is the problem faced recently by a satellite television company. A satellite TV company picks up TV and radio signals and “pipes” the highquality signals directly into subscribers’ homes via satellite. This company provided service to 75 percent of the households within its total service area. The problem facing the company was that there were several areas where the penetration rate was far below average. The population in these areas represented about 15 percent of the total service area. Bringing these areas closer to the average would improve profitability significantly. Before remedial action could be taken, however, it was necessary to establish the reasons for the low penetration. Various reasons were suggested by management, including the following: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Good television reception is available. There is a very large transient population. Residents have had poor previous experience with satellite service. The price is too high, given the incomes in the area. The sales force coverage has been inadequate. A large percentage of the residents of the area are in age or social class groups that watch little television. The challenge for the researcher is to devise a research approach that will gather information that can test each of these hypotheses. Hypotheses are not appropriate for all situations. As the upcoming discussions on exploratory research in Chapter 4 will make clear, there may be 53 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS insufficient information for developing hypotheses. There are also times when the most reasonable hypothesis statement is simply a trivial restatement of the research question. For example: Research Question: Will the advertisement attract attention? Hypothesis: It will attract attention. In such cases the hypothesis will not add anything to the research and should simply be omitted. Hypothesis development should not be viewed as an item on a checklist to be quickly satisfied, but rather as an opportunity to communicate information and to make the research question more specific. How does the researcher generate hypotheses? The answer is that whatever information is available is used to speculate on which answers to the research questions are possible and which are likely. The researcher can use three main sources of information to develop hypotheses, as Figure 3-2 illustrates. First, the researcher can draw on previous research efforts; in fact, it is not uncommon to conduct exploratory research to generate hypotheses for future large-scale research efforts. The research purpose might be deciding whether to conduct the large-scale studies. A second source of hypotheses is theory from such disciplines as psychology, sociology, marketing, or economics. Thus, economic theory might suggest the importance of price in explaining a loss of retail sales. Marketing theory could indicate that distribution is important in predicting new-product acceptance. The use of attitude as a measure of advertising impact might be suggested by psychological theory. A third and perhaps the most important source of hypotheses is the manager’s experience with related problems, coupled with a knowledge of the problem situation and the use of judgment. This source is illustrated by the manufacturer who has discovered an unusual increase in selling costs. Past experience with similar problems, plus a preliminary investigation into the reasons for the problem, point to an increase in the proportion and number of small orders received. The tentative hypothesis is: Small orders (suitably defined) have increased in both number and proportion, and this increase, coupled with a higher cost of processing these orders, has raised selling costs. The research could then be directed at the questions of (1) the extent of increase in small orders (and the reasons for the increase) and (2) the additional unit costs involved in processing orders of different sizes. Research Boundaries. Hypothesis development helps make the research question more precise. Another approach is to indicate the scope of the research or the research boundaries. Is the interest in the total population restricted to men, or to those on the West Coast? Is the research question Source • • • Research purpose Theory Management experience Exploratory research Research question Hypothesis Research objective 54 FIGURE 3-2 Hypothesis development. Research design THE PRELIMINARY STAGES OF THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS concerned with the overall attitude toward the proposed new automobile, or is it necessary to learn customer attitudes about trunk space, handling, gas economy, styling, and interior appearance? Much of the dialogue between the researcher and the decision maker will be about clarifying the boundaries of the study. For example, a manager may wish to study the effects of the European Union’s core industrial policy inspired by the Treaty on European Union, which came into force in 1993.4 During the process of hypothesis development, the possible effects may be isolated. This still leaves a number of areas of ambiguity. What is meant by “condition”— profitability, competitive position in world markets, labor relations? How is the “industry” to be defined? What geographic areas are to be considered? What time period is to be appraised? A final question of research scope regards the desired precision or accuracy of the results. This will, of course, depend on the research purpose. If a multimillion-dollar plant is to be constructed on the basis of the research results, a high degree of accuracy will be required. If, however, the decision involves the investment of a small sum in research and development on a new product idea, then a crude judgment as to the potential of the product would be acceptable. Step 3—Estimating the Value of Information Before a research approach can be selected, it is necessary to have an estimate of the value of the information—that is, the value of obtaining answers to the research questions. Such an estimate will help determine how much, if anything, should be spent on the research. The value will depend on the importance of the decision as noted in the research purpose, the uncertainty that surrounds it, and the influence of the research information on the decision. If the decision is highly significant in terms of the investment required or in terms of its effect on the long-run success of the organization, then information may have a high value. However, uncertainty that is meaningful to the decision also must exist if the information is to have value. If the outcomes are already known with certainty, or if the decision will not be affected by the research information, the information will have no value. To illustrate and expand on these concepts, consider the simplified examples in Figure 3-3. In case A, the decision to introduce a new product is shown as a decision tree. The first two branches represent the decision alternatives—to introduce the product or to decide not to introduce it. The second branch represents the uncertainty. Our descriptive model indicates that if the product is successful, a profit of $4 million will result. The indication is that there is a probability of 0.6 (obtained from prior experience) that the product will be successful. However, if the product is not successful, the profit will be only $1 million, an event that will occur with probability 0.4. These subjective probabilities have been calculated based on prior knowledge of the situation. How much should we be willing to pay for perfect information in this case? If someone could tell us, in advance and with certainty, whether the product would be successful, how much would 0.6 Success 0.4 Failure 0.6 Success 0.4 Failure $4 million Introduce Case A Do not introduce $1 million $0 $4 million Introduce Case B Do not introduce –$2.5 million $0 FIGURE 3-3 Illustrative decision models. 55 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS we pay for that information? The correct answer is nothing! The fact is that our decision would be the same regardless of the information. We would introduce the product, for even if the product were not well accepted, we would still make the $1 million. In this case, not only is the decision insignificant to the organization, it is nonexistent. There is only one viable alternative. Without alternatives there is no decision contest, even if uncertainty exists; therefore, there is no need for additional information. In case B, the estimate is that, if the product is not successful, a loss of $2.5 million will occur. Since the expectation of the new product’s eventual performance is still, on balance, positive, the product would be introduced.* In this case, however, perfect information now would have value. If we knew in advance that the product would not be accepted, we would decide against introducing it and save $2.5 million. Since our best estimate of the probability of the product not being accepted is .4, the value of the information would be .4 times $2.5 million, or $1 million. Thus, if this decision contest could be repeated many times, perfect information would save us $2.5 million about 40 percent of the time and would save us nothing (since it would not alter our decision) about 60 percent of the time. On average, it would save us $1 million. By spending money on research, we might improve our knowledge of how the product will be accepted. But market research is unlikely to be as good as perfect information, and therefore its value will be less than $1 million. Obviously, if the cost associated with an unsuccessful product were lower, or if the probability of an unsuccessful product were smaller, the value of information would be less. (The Appendix to this chapter extends this example to include the possibility of using a concept test to predict whether or not the product will succeed. A method is developed to determine the value of the concept test to the decision maker.) PLANNING A NEW HMO To see how a research purpose and a set of research objectives are developed, let us join a meeting that took place at the Fraser General Hospital in September 2002. The five doctors had a dilemma. They had spent a useful morning confirming that their hospital had the resources to operate a health maintenance organization (HMO). These resources were substantial, as would be expected in a big teaching and research hospital with a strong regional reputation. The concept of an HMO is explained briefly in Marketing Research in Action 3-4. Leading HMOs are experimenting with the demi-science called “alternative medicine,” hoping to cure ills when regular medicine fails. This is a startling trend. Many doctors still view some alternative methods with great skepticism—the word “quackery” is bandied about—and health maintenance organizations have a reputation for shunning all except the most reliable treatments. While most HMOs already offer chiropractic coverage, a number are adding acupuncturists and massage therapists, along with practitioners called naturopaths who use MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-4 What Is an HMO? There are two basic kinds of health coverage. The health maintenance organization is the best example of the prepaid group-practice type. This involves fixed monthly payments directly to a group of doctors or a clinic that is then responsible for all the health needs covered by the plan. The other type of coverage is the insurance type, which involves a company that collects premiums from subscribers, who can go to any clinic or doctor they choose. The insurance company pays for the services covered by the policy. In both cases there may be limits to the coverage of such items as hospitalization, drugs, and office visits. The big drawback of the HMO is restriction of the choice of physicians and hospitals to those affiliated with the HMO. Generally, the total annual cost of an HMO to the consumer is lower than for group insurance plans. One reason is that the flat-fee formula discourages doctors from hospitalizing patients for longer than necessary. Also, the emphasis on preventative care produces fewer seriously ill patients. 56 *The expected value of introducing the product would be 0.6(4M) ⫹ 0.4(⫺2.5M) ⫽ 1.4M. PLANNING A NEW HMO herbal remedies, relaxation therapies, yoga, and more. The health plans are offering to cover this care just as they do treatment by cardiologists and pediatricians. The September 10, 2002, meeting was one in a long series of informal talks, investigations, and efforts to build support for the idea within the hospital. These efforts had brought the doctors to a critical point: Their problem was how to determine whether there was enough market demand in the region to support another HMO. Although each member of the planning group was convinced of the prospective benefits to the community, the hospital teaching program, and the bed utilization rate, they knew they needed persuasive evidence before the hospital trustees would provide start-up funds. After all, the trustees were even reluctant to approve funds for initial planning. What would it take before they would approve an initial investment in excess of $400,000? The trustees were not the only hurdle. Each of the doctors in the HMO planning group knew at least one colleague who was openly skeptical because of the presence of competitive healthcare programs. There was a well established HMO about 8 miles away, plus several clinics operating on a fee-for-service basis. Many of the clinic doctors had privileges at the Fraser General Hospital. At lunch, the planning group was joined by Herb Ellis, a partner in a local research and consulting firm. He had been invited by one of the doctors who knew him socially. During lunch, the doctors enthusiastically described the HMO concept, what it meant to subscribers—especially those on low incomes—and some of the innovations, such as consumer inputs to operations and procedures. After lunch, John Akitt, a surgeon and the originator of the HMO proposal, reviewed some of the tentative decisions that would influence the market analysis. First, they intended to offer fairly comprehensive services from the beginning, including internal medicine, pediatrics, surgery, orthopedics, obstetrics, and gynecology. However, they were not sure whether they should also offer dentistry and optometry at an additional fee. Such an array of services was felt to be competitively necessary, but when combined with a high doctor–enrolled patient ratio to ensure a high service level, the result was very high fixed costs. All the doctors agreed that one way to keep initial costs down was to concentrate on larger employer groups. This meant that a two-stage marketing effort would be required—first to get the employer to agree to offer the HMO plan as a subsidized benefit and then to persuade the employees to switch from their present health-care plan. The largest employer in the vicinity was the state university, 2 miles away, with over 13,000 faculty, staff, and married students who could join a health plan. The university’s vice president of finance appeared committed to offering the HMO plan. There were three other large employers nearby, representing an additional 20,000 possible enrollees. However, they had been much less enthusiastic about offering the Fraser Hospital HMO as a benefit, and implied that they would not consider it until it had been operating successfully for a few months. This was upsetting to the doctors, for a sizable enrollment base had to be generated quickly if the HMO was to achieve its objectives. Still, if there was a significant adoption of the HMO within the university, they felt they could get close to the breakeven target in the short run. As the discussion progressed, Ellis realized that the extent and rate of acceptance of the HMO would depend on the marketing effort and the fee level. Marketing was a real problem, since solicitation of patients was, strictly speaking, unethical. This probably did not prevent personal selling and other communications efforts to explain the differences between fee-for-service and HMO plans. Pricing seemed to be a big factor; the prepaid feature of the HMO meant that prospective enrolled would see a bigger monthly salary bite, although over the long run total health costs would be lower. Since a large proportion of costs were fixed, a high enrollment target could help to lower fees. Otherwise, to lower fees it would be necessary to reduce services, which would make the HMO less attractive. Without knowledge of the price sensitivity of the market, it would be hard to establish a fee structure. But who was the target market? On this the doctors had many conflicting opinions and the meeting became quite heated. Was the HMO concept most attractive to young families, older families with or without children, or enrollees in the competitive HMO? No one was sure just how big an area an HMO could serve. Although 57 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS some existing HMOs attracted only people within a 10-mile radius of the hospital, there was a feeling that convenience and driving time were more important than distance. At this point Herb Ellis felt that he had some understanding of the doctors’ marketing problems. Rather than discuss research approaches, he asked for another meeting at which specific research purposes and objectives could be discussed. These would be the basis for a research proposal. He already knew that a big constraint on his planning would be the available budget. There was no way that more than $10,000 could be found to finance marketing research, no matter what the economic value of the research information to the hospital. Prior to his second meeting with the planning committee, Herb Ellis did some background reading on the HMO concept, talked to several doctors in private practice, and informally interviewed four members of the competitive HMO. With this background he was ready to discuss preliminary research purposes and objectives, which could be used to guide the design of the study. During the second meeting with the hospital planning committee, quick agreement was reached that the primary purpose of the study was to address the decision as to whether the proposal for an HMO should be pursued to the point of making major investments in its implementation. The following research objective consists of the research question and a statement of the study scope. Research Question: What is the demand for the new HMO? Scope: Limited to students, staff, and faculty of the university. The study was limited to university students, staff, and faculty for several reasons. First, the university administration was favorably disposed toward the plan, giving it the best chance of success in that environment. If support from that group was not in evidence, then the prospects would be dim in other organizations. Second, the budget limitation made it unlikely that any worthwhile research could be conducted with more than one organization. No geographic limits were placed on the study as it was thought that distance from the home to the HMO would have only a weak influence on individual interest in the proposed HMO. Much more time was spent on developing the supporting purposes and objectives, with Ellis constantly challenging the usefulness of each proposed purpose and objective. Because of the tight budget constraint, he was fearful that overly ambitious objectives would be difficult to achieve with the alternative research designs he had in mind. Finally, the following set of supporting purposes and objectives was developed. Research Purpose: What target market segments should the HMO emphasize? Objective: Identify the market segments most interested in the proposed HMO. Estimate their probable rate of utilization of medical services from their past medical experience. Purpose: What services should be provided at what price level? Objective: Identify the attributes or characteristics of health plans that would have the greatest influence on an individual’s choice among alternatives. 58 During the meeting a number of hypotheses were advanced as to who was most likely to be interested in the plan. Of course, they would have to express strong interest in the plan as described to them. In addition, good prospects would be those who were dissatisfied with the coverage or quality of their present plan, did not have a long-standing relationship with a family doctor, had favorable attitudes toward the Fraser General Hospital, and were not enrolled in other plans through their spouses. At the end of the meeting, the chairperson indicated a need for a proposal in time for the trustees’ meeting on October 3. If the proposal was approved, they would need the results of the study no later than the first week in February. THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS As we mentioned in Chapter 1, the basic functions of marketing research and the various stages in the research process do not differ between domestic and international research. The international marketing research (IMR) process, however, is much more complicated than the domestic research process. IMR is more complicated because of the necessity to ensure construct, measurement, sampling, and analysis equivalence before any cross-cultural study is conducted. A thorough research of the proposed international market is very important before launching a new product or service. Although it is complex, it can be an extremely beneficial process. To avoid high-profile mistakes in international marketing research, there are some considerations to be made: 1. 2. 3. 4. Profile your target customers and clients. Interview target segments to assess how well they match your preconceived ideas. Hire local researchers who know the costs and methods that are workable in local markets. Use a variety of methods to get a well-rounded picture of these proposed markets, the best approach being a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods that provides picture references, strength, beliefs, and anecdotes. 5. Look at the findings and analyze what must be done differently, abroad or internationally, in comparison with current domestic marketing activities.5 Thus, while conducting IMR, one should be aware of the complicated cultural differences in differing regions of the world. This complication stems from operating in different and diverse environmental contexts, ranging from the technologically advanced and stable United States to mature Western European markets, to the fast-changing environments in newly industrialized countries such as Hong Kong (part of China) and South Korea, to developing economies such as India and Brazil, to transforming economies such as the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and to less developed countries on the African continent. Marketing Research in Action 3-5 illustrates the differences between the United States and Canada. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-5 Are Canadians Our Cousins Up North? The United States and Canada are not only geographically neighbors, but are also each other’s largest trading partner. FTA, NAFTA, and interfirm trade explain most of the increasing trade between the two countries. Nearly 90 percent of the total Canadian population lives within 100 miles of the U.S. border. So, can a U.S.-based manufacturer treat the Canadian market as a mere extension of the domestic markets? Absolutely not! Despite their proximity and close ties, important differences exist between the two countries. These include demographic, economic, and cultural differences. For starters, as of June 2008, the Canadian population is about 33,212,696 (Canada Stats), or roughly about 11 percent of the U.S. population 303,824,640 (U.S. Census) for the same period. Interestingly, over 65 percent of the population is accounted for by two provinces—Ontario and Quebec. Ontario has a socialist government, which is prolabor and imposes more restrictions on business than the provincial governments or the United States. The costs of doing business are, in general, higher in Canada. Bilingual labeling is required. Personal and corporate income taxes are higher, as are transportation and distribution costs and interest rates. Apart from these macro-level differences, there are differences in the way business is done. For example, offering a sales promotion, like a contest, entails special legal requirements that may vary from province to province. The cultural differences are as important as the demographic, economic, political, and legal differences. More than 80 percent of the Quebec population uses French as its first language, and Quebec nationals are committed to sovereignty status. Canadians are extremely sensitive to environmental issues, and even municipal governments have strict local environmental ordinances. To make matters even more difficult, Canada uses the metric system! SOURCE: Updated and adapted from “Do Your Homework Before You Start Marketing in Canada,” Marketing News, September 14, 1992. 59 CHAPTER 3 THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS Framing Research Questions in an International Environment Problems may not always be couched in the same terms in different countries or cultural contexts. This may be due to differences in socioeconomic conditions, levels of economic development, or differences in any of the macroenvironmental factors. Several academic scholars have identified and have pointed out the major reason for the failure of businesses and marketing research projects in a foreign environment. The result has been the self-reference criterion (SRC) adopted by researchers in defining the problem in a foreign country. SRC assumes that the environmental variables (cultural and others) that are prevalent in the researcher’s domestic market are also applicable to the foreign country. This is a major cause for the failure of research projects, since defining the problem is the most crucial step in the marketing research process. One of the most frequent objectives of international marketing research is foreign market opportunity analysis.6 Marketing Research in Action 3-6 is a good example of international MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-6 Pillsbury Presses Flour Power in India The Pillsbury Doughboy has landed in India to pitch a product that he had just abandoned in America: plain old flour. Pillsbury’s recent products sold in the United States have diversified from plain flour to frozen cookie dough and microwave pizzas. In India, however, selling packaged flour is almost revolutionary. This is due to the fact that most Indian housewives still buy raw wheat in bulk. They then clean it by hand, store it in huge metal hampers, and regularly carry some to a neighborhood mill, where it is ground between two stones. Pillsbury is onto a potentially huge business. India consumes about 74 million tons of wheat a year (July 2001 est.), second only to China. (The United States consumes about 33 million tons, U.S. Census July 2001 est.) Much of India’s wheat ends up as roti, a flat bread prepared on a griddle that accompanies almost every meal. In a nation where people traditionally eat with their hands, roti is the spoon. Nevertheless, less than 1 percent of all whole wheat flour is sold prepackaged. India’s climatic extremes and bad road conditions make it difficult to maintain freshness from mill to warehouse, let alone on store shelves. Starting a flour operation meant turning back the clock for Pillsbury. Though it was born as a U.S. flourmilling company 130 years ago, it exited from that business in the early 1990s to focus on products such as frozen baked goods and ice cream. Pillsbury thought of introducing high-value products when it first explored India. But it quickly learned that most Indians don’t have enough disposable income for such fare. Pillsbury is betting that flour will generate enough sales volume to compensate for the razor-thin margin. Marketing managers climbed into the attics where housewives store their wheat and accompanied them to their tiny neighborhood flour mills. Pillsbury had hoped to establish contracts with existing mills, but inspectors found hygiene and safety at some properties to be compromising. Many focus groups and lab tests later, Pillsbury came up with its packaged wheat blend, Pillsbury Chaki Fresh Atta. Responding to consumers’ biggest concern, Pillsbury pitches the flour with a promise that rotis made from it will stay soft “for 6 hours.” The company declines to say what ingredients keep the flour tasting fresh, though it says there are no artificial preservatives. The packaging is made of a robust plastic laminate that costs about two and a half times as much as the paper wrappers typically used in the United States. According to recent studies, the size of the Indian food industry is estimated at $69.4 billion, of which the processed food industry accounts for $22 billion. The total Indian market for food-processing equipment amounted to $1.2 billion in 1999–2000 and is estimated to increase to over $2 billion by 2005, with a predicted average annual growth rate of 15 to 18 percent over the next two years. The market is still minuscule, and gains will largely depend on how quickly Indian housewives embrace convenience. Several local companies familiar with Indian tastes have launched branded flour in recent years, only to flounder. SOURCE: Updated from article by Miriam Jordan, The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 1999, p. B1. 60 THE INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS marketing research. When a firm launches international activities, information can be accumulated to provide basic guidelines. The aim is not to conduct a painstaking and detailed analysis of the world, but to gather information on questions that will help management narrow the possibilities for international marketing activities. Possible questions an international marketing researcher might ask to achieve this objective include the following: ■ Do opportunities exist in foreign markets for the firm’s products and services? ■ Which foreign markets warrant detailed investigation? ■ What are the major economic, political, legal, and other environmental facts and trends in each of the potential countries? ■ What mode of entry does the company plan to adopt to enter the foreign market? ■ What is the market potential in these countries? ■ Who are the firm’s present and potential customers abroad? ■ What is the nature of competition in the foreign markets? ■ What kind of marketing strategy should the firm adopt? Marketing Research in Action 3-7 describes how the environment affects marketing a product, thereby emphasizing the need for market research before product introduction. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 3-7 Two of a Kind? Environmental Differences between the United States and the United Kingdom Lewis W. Griptight, Co., a baby products company based in the United Kingdom, experienced success with its new Kiddiwinks line of infant and toddler accessories and decided to introduce it to their counterpart, Binky-Griptight division, in the United States. Since American mothers prefer their kids to be well-groomed, a grooming set was added to the U.S. line. Both U.S. and U.K. customers agree on the importance of safety and reject glass bottle products, despite their environmentally friendly and hygienic features. Despite the similarities, extensive marketing research discovered some subtle environmental differences between the United States and the U.K. These differences (cultural and legal), made a huge impact on the way the product was introduced in the United States (and may trigger major changes in the British line). One cultural difference concerned naming the product. Kiddiwinks, the British line, means “children” to consumers in Britain, but is meaningless to U.S. consumers. To prepare the product for the U.S. market, the company named the U.S. line “Binkykids” because of the consumers’ high recognition and association of the Binky name with pacifiers. Another difference dealt with cultural perception of kids’ products and led to dramatic changes in color and packaging graphics. Conservative British mothers view kids’ items as medical products and therefore prefer the symbolic white packaging of Kiddiwinks products. The Binkykids package, on the other hand, was given a more stylish look and “prominently features the line’s signature green and lilac colors.” Although American moms are very safety conscious, they still favor a more “flamboyant” or a “cute and cuddly” look. A third difference related to safety regulatory matters. U.S. consumers like innovative products and Binky-Griptight introduced a pacifier, their flagship product, that plays lullabies when sucked on. However, this product would require redesign in the U.K. because of safety regulations. For more interesting articles on marketing research go to http://www.marketingpower.com/ResourceLibrary/ Pages/default.aspx SOURCE: Cyndee Miller, “Kiddi Just Fine in the U.K., but Here It’s Binky,” Marketing News, August 28, 1995, p. 8. 61 Summary The research process consists of a series of stages or steps that guide the research project from conception through to final recommendations. An overview of the domestic marketing research and the international marketing research processes was presented. This chapter discussed the research purpose and the research objective in detail. Chapter 4 will provide a discussion of the research design and implementation stages. Together, the two chapters will provide a structure for the rest of the book. The specification of the research purpose involves, first, the identification of the decision involved, its alternatives, and the importance of its timing. Sometimes the decision is as general as: “Should our marketing program be changed?” In such cases it is also useful to specify the problem or opportunity that is motivating the research, or the environmental surveillance objective. The purpose statement also should consider who the research users are. There are times when identifying the research users and understanding their decisions and motives can significantly improve the effectiveness of the research. The research objective involves the identification of the research questions. The answer to an appropriate research question should be relevant to the research purpose, and the question should be as specific as possible. In particular, hypotheses should be developed whenever possible. The research boundaries specification is also part of the research objective statement. Even at the early stages of research conceptualization, it is useful to consider what value the resulting information is likely to have. This exercise may lead to a decision to forgo the research, or at least make a judgment about the appropriate scale of the research project. Questions and Problems 1. Jim Mitchell, a high-profile businessperson, is considering running for state governor against a twoterm incumbent. Mitchell and his backers do not want to enter the race unless there is a reasonable chance of winning. What are some research questions and hypotheses that, if answered, could help him make the decision? 2. At the beginning of Chapter 1 there are two examples of management information needs: Esporta Health and Fitness and Samsung Life Insurance. Review each of these situations and develop an appropriate set of research purposes and objectives. 3. In the United Kingdom, cars are polished more frequently when the owners do not have garages. Is the lack of a garage a good variable for predicting sales of car polish? Are there other hypotheses that might explain this finding? 4. Can you think of additional research objectives for the HMO study? 5. You have been retained by a manufacturer of major appliances to investigate the probable color preferences for stoves and refrigerators in the coming year. What is the purpose of the research? Are there different purposes that might require different research approaches? 6. The president of a small chain of women’s clothing stores was concerned about a four-year trend of decreasing profits. The stores have been characterized as being rather conservative over the years with respect to their product line, store decor, and advertising. They have consistently avoided trendy 62 clothes, for example. Their market is now becoming extremely competitive because several aggressive fashion stores are expanding and are aiming at the young, fashion-conscious buyer. As a result of this competition and the disappointing profit trend, the president is considering making the product line appear less conservative and more oriented toward the young buyer. Before making such a risky change, the president feels it prudent to conduct some marketing research to learn the exact status of his chain. What should be the research purpose? Compose a set of research questions that would be helpful. 7. Explain the role of an information system. How would the possible role differ for Avon Products and Johnson Wax Company? (Refer to the Agree Shampoo example in Chapter 1 for background.) 8. Consider the example in Figure 3-4 in the Appendix to this chapter. What would be the expected value of perfect information if the loss would be $1 million instead of $2.5 million? How about if the loss would be $10 million instead of $2.5 million? What would it be if the probability of failure would be .2 instead of .4? Explain in words what is meant by the expected value of perfect information and what its implication is. 9. Consider the example in Figure 3-4 in the Appendix to this chapter. Determine the value of research information under the following situations: a. Pr(Neg 兩 F) ⫽ .9 and Pr(Pos 兩 F) ⫽ .1 and all else remains the same. b. Pr(Pos 兩 S) ⫽ .7 and Pr(Neg 兩 S) ⫽ .3 and all else remains the same. c. Pr(Pos 兩 S) ⫽ .9, Pr(Neg 兩 S) ⫽ .1, Pr(Neg 兩 F) ⫽ .9, Pr(Pos 兩 F) ⫽ .1. 10. ExoArt, Inc., a small U.S.-based manufacturer of exotic jewelry, feels that a market exists for its product in foreign markets. However, the company’s managers have no experience in the international environment, and do not know how to proceed in forming a marketing strategy for international markets. They have decided to contact a marketing research firm to help with the process. The researchers recommend a “foreign market opportunity analysis” as a starting point for the company’s internationalization. a. What is the aim of a foreign market opportunity analysis? b. Which questions might a researcher ask to gather information for the analysis? c. What is the most probable cause of failure for a business or marketing research project in a foreign environment? 11. a. Are there any differences between the basic functions of marketing research in a domestic environment and those in an international environment? b. Why is the international research process considered more complicated than the domestic research process? 12. Crystal-Clear Lens, Inc., a newly formed mailorder contact lens company, has struggled to obtain breakeven sales after five years in the eyewear market. The company’s founders felt that a high demand would exist for mail-order supply as a low-cost alternative to purchasing lenses at optical outlets. These retail outlets usually are within close geographic proximity to an affiliated optician. This allows customers to have their eyesight examined by the optician and then take the prescription to the optical outlet to purchase their eyeglasses or contact lens. Many retail outlets offer coupons that refund the cost of the eye examination upon the purchase of contact lenses, and offer several free follow-up visits after the sale to check that the prescription has been made up correctly. The mailorder process requires customers to send in their prescription after the eye examination, whereupon the contact lenses will be supplied within two weeks of receipt of the order. The managers at Crystal-Clear Lens, Inc., have employed you as their marketing research consultant, to determine the reasons for the low sales. a. What would be the research purpose of this study? b. How does the research purpose differ from the research objective? Illustrate this difference in terms of the Crystal-Clear Lens example. c. What specific information would be required to achieve the research purpose? (That is, state the research question.) d. State some preliminary hypotheses to answer the research question. End Notes 1. Lawrence D. Gibson, “Defining Marketing Prolems—Don’t Spin Your Wheels Solving the Wrong Puzzle,” Marketing Research, Spring 1998, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 5–12. 2. Adapted from Irving D. Canton, “Do You Know Who Your Customer Is?” Journal of Marketing, April 1976, p. 83. 3. “Conjoint Analysis of Values of Reserve Component Attitudes,” a report prepared for the Department of Defense by Market Facts, Chicago, November 1977. 4. Europa: http://europa.eu/ 5. Allyson L. Stewart-Allen, “Do Your International Homework First,” Marketing News, January 4, 1999, Vol. 33, No. 1, p. 25. 6. Adapted from R. Michael Czinkota and Ilkka A. Ronkainen, International Marketing, 3rd ed., Orlando, FL: Dryden Press, 1993. Appendix The Value of Research Information Using Bayesian Decision Theory In the discussion surrounding Figure 3-3, the value of perfect research information for case B was determined to be $1 million. Perfect research information would indicate with certainty that the product would be a success or a failure. In this Appendix, the more realistic question as to the value of imperfect research information will be addressed. The case B example of Figure 3-3 is shown at the top of Figure 3-4. A decision to introduce a new product has two possible outcomes. A “success” is given a prior probability of .6 and will result in a profit of $4 million. 63 0.6 Introduce S EV = $1.4 million 0.4 F $4 million –$2.5 million 0.75 Introduce .64 Pos Concept test EV = $1.52 million Introduce Do not introduce EV = $0 Do not introduce $4 million EV = $2.375 million EV = $2.375 million Do not $0 introduce .36 Neg S 0.25 F 0.33 S –$2.5 million $4 million EV = –$0.355 million 0.67 F –$2.5 million $0 $0 FIGURE 3-4 The concept test option. A “failure” is given a prior probability of .4 and will result in a profit of ⫺$2.5 million. Symbolically, Product success ⫽ S ⫽ $4 million Product failure ⫽ F ⫽ ⫺$2.5 million Probability of success ⫽ Pr(S) ⫽ .6 Probability of failure ⫽ Pr(F) ⫽ .4 The expected value of introducing the product is then the sum of the two possible payoffs, each weighted by its probability of occurring:1 EV ⫽ expected value ⫽ S ⫻ Pr(S) ⫹ F ⫻ Pr(F) ⫽ ($4 million) ⫻ .6 ⫹ (⫺$2.5 million) ⫻ .4 ⫽ $1.4 million This expected value is shown in Figure 3-3 between the two outcomes, success and failure. The alternative of not introducing will result in a profit of zero. Thus, the product will be introduced. If it were possible to obtain perfect information about the outcome of the product introduction, then the potential would be created to avoid the result of losing $2.5 million. The maximum amount that would be paid for perfect information 1 To understand expected value, consider the following game. Ten balls numbered from 1 to 10 are placed in a bowl. One ball is selected at random. If the number is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, you receive $4 million. If it 64 would be $2.5 million times .4, the probability that a failure will result, which amounts to $1 million. Only when a failure results will the decision be affected; therefore, the firm will save some money. Figure 3-4 has added the alternative of evaluating the new product with a concept test, such as a focus group interview in which a group of 8 to 10 people is asked to discuss the concept. Let us assume that the concept test will either be positive (Pos) or negative (Neg). Now assume that the concept test is not a perfect indicator of the ultimate result. In particular, those who have worked with this concept test several times before believe that for successful products the concept test is positive 80 percent of the time (and thus negative 20 percent of the time). For failed products, the concept test is believed to be negative 60 percent of the time (and thus positive 40 percent of the time). In terms of conditional probabilities, Probability of a Pos concept test given a successful product ⫽ Pr1Pos|S2 ⫽ .8 Probability of a Neg concept test given a successful product ⫽ Pr1Neg|S2 ⫽ .2 is 7, 8, 9, or 10, you must pay $2.5 million. If you played this game thousands of times you would earn $1.4 million, on average, each time the game was played. Probability of a Neg concept test given a failed product ⫽ Pr1Neg|F2 ⫽ .6 Probability of a Pos concept test given a failed product ⫽ Pr1Pos|F2 ⫽ .4 The expected value of the “introduce the product immediately” option is $1.4 million. We need to determine the expected value of the concept test alternative in order to determine how much value, if any, there will be in conducting the test. To proceed we first need to determine Pr(Pos) ⫽ probability of a positive concept test Pr(Neg) ⫽ probability of a negative concept test Pr(S 0 Pos) ⫽ probability that the product will be successful given a positive concept test Pr(F 0 Pos) ⫽ probability that the product will be a failure given a positive concept test Pr(S 0 Neg) ⫽ probability that the product will be successful given a negative concept test Pr(F 0 Neg) ⫽ probability that the product will be a failure given a negative concept test The first two terms are obtained from the following formula:2 Pr(Pos) ⫽ Pr(Pos 0 S)Pr(S) ⫹ Pr(Pos 0 F)Pr(F) ⫽ .8 ⫻ .6 ⫹ .4 ⫻ .4 ⫽ .64 Pr(Neg) ⫽ Pr(Neg 0 S)Pr(S) ⫹ Pr(Neg 0 F)Pr(F) ⫽ .2 ⫻ .6 ⫹ .6 ⫻ .4 ⫽ .36 To obtain the balance of the expressions we apply a formula known as Bayes’ theorem, which is the basis of Bayesian decision theory: Pr(S 0 Pos) ⫽ Pr(F 0 Pos) ⫽ Pr(S 0 Neg) ⫽ Pr(F 0 Neg) ⫽ Pr(Pos 0 S) ⫻ Pr(S) .8 ⫻ .6 ⫽ ⫽ .75 Pr(Pos) .46 Pr(Pos 0 F) ⫻ Pr(F) Pr(Pos) ⫽ .4 ⫻ .4 ⫽ .25 .64 Pr(Neg 0 S) ⫻ Pr(S) ⫽ Pr(Neg 0 F) ⫻ Pr(F) .2 ⫻ .6 ⫽ .33 .36 ⫽ .6 ⫻ .4 ⫽ .67 .36 Pr(Neg) Pr(Neg) The information is now at hand to evaluate the concept test alternative. We first consider what happens if there is a positive concept test and the product is introduced. The probability of obtaining a successful product, which would earn $4 million, is Pr(S | Pos) or .75. The failure probability is of course Pr(F | Pos) or .25. The expected value, the sum of the two outcomes each weighted by its probability, is then S ⫻ Pr(S 0 Pos) ⫹ F ⫻ Pr(F 0 Pos) ⫽ ($4 million) ⫻ .75 ⫹ (⫺$2.5 million) ⫻ .25 ⫽ $2.375 million Since $2.375 million is more than the value of the “do not introduce” alternative, the product would be introduced after a positive concept test, and an expected value of $2.375 million would result, as shown in Figure 3-4. A similar analysis reveals that the expected value of introducing the product after a negative concept test would be ($4 million) ⫻ .33 ⫹ (⫺$2.5 million) ⫻ .67 ⫽ ⫺$.355 million Thus, given a negative concept test, the preferred alternative would be “do not introduce,” which would yield zero. Therefore an expected value of $2.375 million (associated with a positive concept test) will occur with a probability of .64 [recall that Pr(Pos) ⫽ .6]. Further, an expected value of zero (associated with a negative concept test) will occur with probability .36. The expected value of a concept test alternative is thus ($2.375 million) ⫻ .64 ⫹ ($0) ⫻ .36 ⫽ $1.52 million Note that Expected value of “concept test” alternative ⫽ $1,520,000 Expected value of “introduce” alternative ⫽ $1,400,000 Difference ⫽ $120,000 Thus the value of a concept test is $120,000, considerably less than the value of perfect information ($1 million), but still substantial. A researcher should be willing to pay up to $120,000 for a concept test. Of course, if another concept test could be found that would predict success or failure more accurately, then its value would be higher, as the reader could demonstrate. 2 The formulas are easily expanded if there are more than two outcomes to the decision. For example, suppose that there were three outcomes, Success (S), Failure (F), and Indeterminant (I). The formula would then be Pr1Pos2 ⫽ Pr1Pos 0 S2 ⫻ Pr1S2 ⫹ Pr1Pos 0 I2 ⫻ Pr1I2 ⫹ Pr1Pos 0 F2 ⫻ Pr1F2 65 CASE 3-1 A VideOcart Test for Bestway Stores The executives of Bestway Stores were intrigued with a proposal they had received from Information Resources, Inc., the developer of the VideOcart, to participate in a market test of the new point-of-sale technology. They were debating whether to agree to let IRI conduct a test in 3 of their 300 stores. Their reasons for doing it were not because they especially wanted to help IRI, but rather to learn about the benefits and shortcomings of this approach to in-store displays as a possible competitive weapon. As an input to the decision, the marketing research department was asked to design a study that would assess the desirability of deploying the new display technology in all their stores once the test was finished. The test was to last about 12 months. Much of what the Bestway Stores’ management knew about the VideOcart came from a press conference. They learned that IRI would beam a commercial via satellite to a pick-up dish at each store. The signal would be sent out by a low-power FM transmitter to each cart, and stored in the memory of a computer located in the handlebar of the cart. According to an IRI spokesperson, The ads will be shown at breaks in an information and entertainment program for consumers and won’t interrupt the program. The sequence of the ads shown will be determined by the route of the cart through the store. As a shopper pushes a VideOcart down the aisles, the manufacturer’s ads for brands on the shelves being passed at that moment will be “triggered” at a rate of about two per aisle (about 32 per store) and appear on the flat, 6-in. by 8-in. liquid-crystal display mounted on the handles of the cart. Tie-in promotion ads also will be able to be used—for instance, a hotdog bun ad when the cart is near the hot dogs. Only about 15 percent of VideOcart’s display time will be devoted to ads. The rest will be a friendly medium in which to display ads, including a continually changing video newsmagazine, news to create a new shopping experience, store specials and maps, trivia questions, and videogames to play while waiting to check out. The video seen on the screen isn’t television but will use attention-getting graphics created on a personal computer. How Does a VideOcart Work? Here is what a consumer would find: After a long day at work, you rush to the supermarket to pick up dinner. As you wheel a grocery cart down the aisle, an ad for Brand X coffee flashes on a liquid-crystal screen perched on your cart’s handlebar. The ad reminds you that you need coffee, so you drop a can of Brand X into your cart and push on to the next aisle. BOB’S SUPERMARKET Checkout transmitter Message Store transmitter Manager's PC 66 The Test of the VideOcart Besides gathering sales data, the test markets will be used to perfect consumer programming and fine-tune the technology. IRI also will be checking on factors such as the ideal length of ads, shopper interest in games and information, how the shopper interacts with the unit, and opportunities for the grocers to contribute programming. VideOcart’s computer capabilities also will offer supermarkets some advantages, including sounding an alarm if a cart is taken too far from the store, as in an attempt to steal it. The stores also could use VideOcart to transmit information such as the shortest checkout line, the next number up at the deli counter, or that a red Ford in the parking lot has its lights on. We will put the needed equipment into the supermarkets—including a satellite dish on the roof—at no cost to the retailers and eventually will pay the supermarkets a royalty four to six times greater than they’re now receiving from other shopping cart ads. We’re not asking for an exclusive in the supermarkets, but we’re out to make that other type of shopping cart ad irrelevant. The VideOcarts will be designed to be weatherproof and childproof. The retailers will have to recharge the batteries on the carts each night. The carts should be equipped for under $500 per cart. The average supermarket has about 100 carts and IRI would turn about 75 of them into VideOcarts, which we expect shoppers will seek out because they’ll make shopping efficient and fun. VideOcart will offer excellent media efficiency compared to other alternatives. Once national, the medium will reach 60 percent of all shoppers in a week at the cost per thousand of a free-standing newspaper insert—$4–$5 per thousand households. VideOcart ads will be able to be created in a few hours and somewhat inexpensively using microcomputer graphics software. The learning curve to master the technology should be short and IRI will provide technical support and counsel. The Assignment The marketing research manager pondered about this project and wondered what really had to be learned to draw up a statement of purpose. With this in hand the design of the research would be a lot easier. Time was short, for management needed to know how the research manager was going to get usable information. If it looked too difficult or expensive, they might not agree to a test in their stores. CASE 3-2 Sperry/MacLennan Architects and Planners year, the company was incorporated as H. Drew Sperry and Associates; by then Sperry had added three junior architects, a draftsman, and a secretary. One of those architects was John MacLennan, who would later become a senior partner in Sperry/MacLennan. Throughout the 1970s, the practice grew rapidly as the local economy expanded, even though the market for architectural services was competitive. With the baby-boom generation entering the housing market, more than enough business came its way to enable Sperry to develop a thriving architectural practice, and by 1979 the company had grown to 15 employees and had established branch offices in Charlottetown and Fredericton. These branch offices had been established to provide a local market presence and meet licensing requirements during this aggressive growth period. But the growth could not last. The early 1980s was not an easy time for the industry, and many architectural firms found themselves unable to stay in business through a very slow period in 1981–1982. The company laid off all but the three remaining partners: Drew, Sheila Sperry, and John MacLennan. However, one draftsman and the secretary refused to leave, working In August 1988 Mitch Brooks, a junior partner and director of Sperry/MacLennan (S/M), a Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, architectural practice specializing in recreational facilities, is in the process of developing a plan to export his company’s services. He intends to present the plan to the other directors at their meeting the first week of October. The regional market for architectural services is showing some signs of slowing, and S/M realizes that it must seek new markets. As Sheila Sperry, the office manager and one of the directors, said at their last meeting, “You have to go wider than your own backyard. After all, you can only build so many pools in your own backyard.” About the Company Drew Sperry, one of the two senior partners in Sperry/MacLennan, founded the company in 1972 as a one-man architectural practice. At the end of its first 67 without pay for several months in the belief that the company would win a design competition for an aquatics center in Saint John; their faith in the firm is still appreciated today. Their persistence and faith was rewarded in 1983. Sperry won the competition for the aquatics facility for the Canada Games to be held in Saint John. Sperry had gained national recognition for its sports facility expertise, and its reputation as a good design firm specializing in sports facilities was secured. From the beginning, the company found recreational facilities work to be fun and exciting. To quote Sheila Sperry, this type of client “wants you to be innovative and new. It’s a dream for an architect because it gives him an opportunity to use all the shapes and colors and natural light. It’s a very exciting medium to work in.” So they decided to focus their promotional efforts to get more of this type of work and consolidate their “pool designer” image by associating with Creative Aquatics on an exclusive basis in 1984. Creative Aquatics provided aquatics programming and technical operations expertise (materials, systems, water treatment, safety, and so on) to complement the design and planning skills at Sperry. The construction industry rebounded in 1984; declining interest rates ushered in a mini-building boom, which kept everyone busy for the 1984–1987 period. Mitch Brooks joined the practice in 1987. The decision to add Brooks as a partner, albeit a junior one, stemmed from their compatibility. Brooks was a good production architect, and work under his supervision came in on budget and on time, a factor compatible with the Sperry/MacLennan emphasis on customer service. The company’s fee revenue amounted to approximately $1.2 million in the 1987 fiscal year; however, salaries are a major business expense, and profits after taxes (but before employee bonuses) accounted for only 4.5 percent of revenue. Now it is late August, and with the weather cooling, Mitch Brooks reflects on his newest task, planning for the coming winter’s activities. The company’s reputation in the Canadian sports facility market is secure. The company has completed or has in construction five sports complexes in the Maritime Provinces and five in Ontario, and three more facilities are in design. The awards have followed, and just this morning, Drew was notified of their latest achievement—the company has won the $10,000 Canadian Architect Grand Award for the Grand River Aquatics and Community Center near Kitchener, Ontario. This award is a particularly prestigious one because it is given by fellow architects in recognition of design excellence. Last week Sheila Sperry received word that the Amherst, N.S., YM-YWCA won the American National Swimming Pool and Spa Gold Medal for pool design against French and Mexican finalists, giving them international recognition. Mitch Brooks is looking forward to his task. The partners anticipate a slight 68 slowdown in late 1988, and economists are predicting a recession for 1989. With 19 employees to keep busy and a competitor on the West Coast, they decided this morning that it is time to consider exporting their hard-won expertise. The Architecture Industry Architects are licensed provincially, and these licenses are not readily transferable from province to province. Various levels of reciprocity are in existence. For this reason, joint ventures are not that uncommon in the business. In order to cross provincial boundaries, architecture firms in one province often enter into a joint venture arrangement with a local company. It is imperative that the architect convince the client that he or she has the necessary experience and capability to undertake the project and to complete it satisfactorily. S/M has found with its large projects that the amount of time spent meeting with the client requires some local presence, although the design need not be done locally. Architects get business in a number of ways. “Walk-in” business is negligible, and most of S/M’s contracts are the result of one of the following five processes: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. A satisfied client gives a referral. A juried design competition is announced. (S/M has found that these prestigious jobs, even though they offer “runners up” partial compensation, are not worth entering except to win, since costs are too high and the compensation offered other entrants too low. Second place is the same as last place. The Dartmouth Sportsplex and the Saint John Aquatic Center were both design competition wins.) A client publishes a “Call for Proposals” or a “Call for Expressions of Interest” as the start of a formal selection process. (S/M rates these opportunities; unless it has a 75 percent chance of winning the contract, it views the effort as not worth the risk.) A potential client invites a limited number of architectural firms to submit their qualifications as the start of a formal selection process. (S/M has a prepared qualification package that it can customize for a particular client.) S/M hears of a potential building and contacts the client, presenting its qualifications. The fourth and fifth processes are the most common in buildings done for institutions and large corporations. Since the primary buyers of sports facilities tend to be municipalities or educational institutions, these are the ways S/M acquires a substantial share of its work. Although juried competitions are not that common, the publicity possible from success in landing this work is important to S/M. The company has found that its success in securing a contract is often dependent on the client’s criteria and the current state of the local market, with no particular pattern evident for a specific building type. After the architect signs the contract, there will be a number of meetings with the client as the concept evolves and the drawings and specifications develop. Therefore, continuing client contact is as much a part of the service sold as the drawings, specifications, and site supervision and, in fact, may be the key factor in repeat business. Developers in Nova Scotia often are not loyal buyers, changing architects with every major project or two. Despite this, architects are inclined to think the buyer’s loyalty is greater than it really is. Therefore, S/M scrutinizes buyers carefully, interested in those that can pay for a premium product. S/M’s philosophy is to provide “quality products with quality service for quality clients,” and thus produce facilities that will reflect well on the company. The Opportunity In 1987, a report entitled “Precision, Planning, and Perseverance: Exporting Architectural Services to the United States” identified eight market niches for Canadian architects in the United States, one of which was educational facilities, in particular post-secondary institutions. This niche, identified by Brooks as most likely to match S/M’s capabilities, is controlled by state governments and private organizations. Universities are known not to be particularly loyal to local firms and so present a potential market to be developed. The study reported that “post-secondary institutions require design and management competence, whatever the source” (p. 39). Athletic facilities were identified as a possible niche for architects with mixed-use-facility experience. Finally, the study concluded that “there is an enormous backlog of capital maintenance and new building requirements facing most higher education institutions” (p. 38). In addition to the above factors, the study indicated others that Brooks felt were important: 1. 2. 3. 4. The United States has 30 percent fewer architectural firms per capita than Canada. The market shares many Canadian values and work practices. The population shift away from the Northeast to the Sunbelt is beginning to reverse. Americans are demanding better buildings. Although Brooks knows that Canadian firms have always had a good reputation internationally for the quality of their buildings, he is concerned that American firms are well ahead of Canadian ones in their use of CADD (computer-assisted design and drafting) for everything from conceptual design to facility management. S/M, in spite of best intentions, has been unable to get CADD off the ground, but is in the process of applying to the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency for financial assistance in switching over to CADD. Under free trade, architects will be able to engage freely in trade in services. Architects will be able to travel to the United States and set up an architectural practice without having to become qualified under the American Institute of Architects; as long as they are members of their respective provincial associations and have passed provincial licensing exams and apprenticeship requirements, they will be able to travel and work in the United States and import staff as required. Where to Start? At a meeting in Halifax in January 1988, the Department of External Affairs had indicated that trade to the United States in architectural services was going to be one positive benefit of the Free Trade Agreement to come into force in January 1989. As a response, S/M has targeted New England for its expansion, because of its geographic proximity to S/M’s homebase in the Halifax/Dartmouth area and also because of its population density and similar climatic conditions. However, with all the hype about free trade and the current focus on the United States, Brooks is quite concerned that the company might be overlooking some other very lucrative markets for his company’s expertise. As part of his October presentation to the board, he wants to identify and evaluate other possible markets for S/M’s services. Other parts of the United States, or the affluent countries of Europe, where recreational facilities are regularly patronized and design is taken seriously, might provide a better export market, given S/M’s string of design successes at home and the international recognition afforded by the Amherst facility design award. Brooks feels that designing two sports facilities a year in a new market would be an acceptable goal. In his search for leads, Brooks notes that the APPA (Association of Physical Plant Administrators of Universities and Colleges) charges $575 for a membership, which provides access to its membership list once a year. But this is only one source of leads. And of course there is the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, as another source of information for him to tap. He wonders what other sources are possible. S/M appears to have a very good opportunity in the New England market because of all its small universities and colleges. After a decade of cutbacks on spending, corporate donations and alumni support for U.S. universities has never been so strong, and many campuses have sports facilities that are outdated and have been poorly maintained. But Mitch Brooks is not sure that the New England market is the best. After all, a seminar on exporting that he attended last week indicated that the most geographically close market, or even the most psychically close one, may not be the best choice for long-run profit maximization and/or market share. 69 Questions for Discussion 1. What types of information will Brooks need to collect before he can even begin to assess the New England market? Develop a series of questions you feel are critical to this assessment. 2. What selection criteria do you believe will be relevant to the assessment of any alternative markets? What preliminary market parameters are relevant to the evaluation of S/M’s global options? CASE 3-3 Philip Morris Enters Turkey Under regulatory and legal fire in the United States, tobacco companies have been staking their financial futures in developing countries. In the seven years since Turkey abolished price controls that had propped up its state-owned tobacco company, Philip Morris has gotten millions of Turks to cast aside local cigarettes in favor of its Marlboro, Parliament, and L&M brands. For Philip Morris—which saw international tobacco profits grow 60 percent to $4.6 billion last year from 1994—nowhere has that push been more successful than in Turkey. In the nation that inspired the phrase “smokes like a Turk,” 43 percent of the 62.9 million population smokes, according to government estimates, compared to 25 percent in the United States. Meantime, cigarette consumption in Turkey has increased at an annual rate of about 4.76 percent since 1992, making this one of the fastest-growing markets in the world. Philip Morris has watched its share of the Turkish cigarette market mushroom, to 23 percent in 1997 from 15 percent in 1995, while Tekel, the government-owned tobacco company, has seen its hold drop to 70 percent from 82 percent over the same period, according to figures provided by the Turkish government. Third-ranked R.J. Reynolds, with its Winston and Camel brands, says its share has grown to 7.3 percent from 2.9 percent. Turkish smokers got their first taste of Philip Morris brands in the 1970s, when smuggled, tax-free American cigarettes began flooding local bazaars. But it wasn’t until the early 1980s that the company was allowed to sell cigarettes in Turkey. Eager to raise Turkey’s status in the West, then–Prime Minister Turgut Ozal decided to turn his rural country into a model of free enterprise. One of his targets: Tekel, the creaky state monopoly that has held exclusive rights to sell tobacco, salt, and liquor to Turks since the waning days of the Ottoman Empire. How could Mr. Ozal prod Tekel into the modern age? He announced in 1984 that foreign tobacco 70 3. Assuming that S/M decides on the New England market, what information will be needed to implement an entry strategy? Source: This case was adapted with permission from a case prepared by Dr. Mary R. Brooks, of Dalhousie University. merchants would be allowed in Turkey for the first time since the days of the sultans. But there was a catch: Tekel would continue to price and distribute all cigarettes both foreign and domestic. That advantage came in especially handy when Tekel in 1988 launched Tekel 2000, a cigarette blended with American tobacco leaves that it designed to compete with Marlboro. Priced about 25 cents lower than a standard 20-cigarette pack of Marlboros at the time, Tekel 2000 quickly won a quarter of the market. Arguing that it couldn’t survive in Turkey unless it had the right to price and distribute its own products, Philip Morris leveraged the one thing it had that the government badly wanted: millions of dollars to invest in the country. And it wouldn’t invest that money unless Tekel gave up control. Tekel eventually relented, and in May 1991, Philip Morris got the right to market, price, and distribute its own cigarettes, conditioned on a number of factors, including building its own factory. Philip Morris announced a joint venture with Sabanci Holding Inc., a local company, and poured $100 million to start construction of a factory in the southwestern city of Torballi. The factory opened in 1993; Philip Morris eventually expanded it into a $230 million facility capable of cranking out more than 28 billion cigarettes annually. Supporting the idea that Philip Morris adjust its cigarette blends is a confidential 1992 report, titled “PM’s Global Strategy: Marlboro Product Technology,” conducted by researchers at rival B.A.T. Industries PLC’s Brown & Williamson unit. “When Marlboro has been introduced into a market there is no evidence that initial offerings may be closer to that market’s traditional taste,” concludes the report that documents different Marlboro formulations in countries including Brazil, Britain, and Germany. “Over time PM will alter the product and introduce product technology more consistent with an overall Marlboro sensory character.” Philip Morris says it doesn’t comment on speculation by competitors. The company says it strives “to ensure that Marlboros are as consistent as possible worldwide,” but adds that some variation results from local regulations that limit constituents like tar or require the use of locally grown tobaccos. Beyond the taste difference, Tekel couldn’t keep up when Marl- boro’s prices were cut. Although they still maintain Tekel 2000 was a success, Tekel executives announced that they want to sell the brand to a foreign competitor. Where Philip Morris really bested rivals is in marketing and distribution. Questions for Discussion 1. Obtain information on the current consumption pattern of cigarettes in Turkey. How has this changed in the last 10 years? What kind of research should Philip Morris be doing to gain market share in Turkey? 2. What kind of information should Philip Morris obtain to decide on a marketing and distribution strategy in Turkey? How can Philip Morris obtain this information? 3. Is it ethical for Philip Morris to overtly alter the taste of its cigarettes over a period of time for its own profit? Source: This case was prepared by V. Kumar and Rajkumar Venkatesan for the purpose of classroom discussion from “How Philip Morris Got Turkey Hooked on Marlboro,” Wall Street Journal, September 1998. 71 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION Learning Objectives ■ Understand the definition and purpose of research design. ■ Be familiar with the different types of research designs. ■ Identify the appropriate data collection method for a given research design. ■ Describe and briefly discuss the various sources of errors in a design. ■ Be introduced to the concepts of budgeting and scheduling a project. ■ Describe the elements of a research proposal. ■ Be introduced to the issues in international marketing research design. A research design is the detailed blueprint used to guide a research study toward its objectives. The process of designing a research study involves many interrelated decisions. The most significant decision is the choice of research approach, because it determines how the information will be obtained. The chosen research should be flexible enough to accommodate decisionmaking systems that, in turn, would contribute to valuable marketing intelligence tools. Typical questions at this stage are: Should we rely on secondary sources such as the Census? Which is more appropriate, an exploratory approach with group discussions or a survey? Is a mail, telephone, fax, or personal interview survey better for this problem? Tactical research decisions are made once the research approach has been chosen. Here the focus is on the specific measurements to be made or questions to be asked, the structure and length of the questionnaire, and the procedure for choosing a sample to be interviewed. These tactical decisions also are constrained by time and budget availability, so before a study can be implemented, the estimated costs must be compared to the anticipated value. To design something also means to ensure that the pieces fit together. The achievement of this fit among objectives, research approach, and research tactics is inherently an iterative process in which earlier decisions are constantly reconsidered in light of subsequent decisions. This may mean a revision of the research objectives as new insights are gained into the complexities of the population to be sampled, or a reassessment of the research approach in light of realistic cost estimates. Consequently, few researchers find they have designed their research studies in the neat and linear fashion that is implied by Figure 4-1; however, this figure is a useful overview of major research design topics to be introduced in this chapter. Also in this chapter we will discuss the research proposal as a vehicle for summarizing significant decisions made during the research design process. 72 Planning system Information system Preliminary planning stage Research Purpose Decision alternatives Problem or opportunity Research users Research Objective Research question Hypothesis development Research boundaries Estimate Value of Research Information Research Approach Research design Exploratory Descriptive Causal Choice of data collection method • Secondary and standardized data • Qualitative methods • Surveys • Experiments Role of research supplier • Project design • Raw data collection Research Tactics Develop measures of interest Construct questionnaire Design experiments Design sampling plan Anticipate analysis Compare Cost and Timing Estimates with Anticipated Value Terminate Revise Implementation Proceed Data Collection and Analysis Data collection Field work Data processing Data analysis Statistical analysis Interpretation Conclusions and Recommendations FIGURE 4-1 The research design process. 73 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION RESEARCH APPROACH The choice of a research approach depends on the nature of the research that one wants to do. In this section the various types of research approaches, data collection methods, and the factors affecting their choice are discussed. Types of Research All research approaches can be classified into one of three general categories of research: exploratory, descriptive, and causal. These categories differ significantly in terms of research purpose, research questions, the precision of the hypotheses that are formed, and the data collection methods that are used. Exploratory Research. Exploratory research is used when one is seeking insights into the general nature of a problem, the possible decision alternatives, and relevant variables that need to be considered. Typically, there is little prior knowledge on which to build. The research methods are highly flexible, unstructured, and qualitative, for the researcher begins without firm preconceptions as to what will be found. The absence of structure permits a thorough pursuit of interesting ideas and clues about the problem situation. Exploratory research hypotheses are either vague and ill defined, or they do not exist at all. Table 4-1 illustrates this point with three examples. In the first example, the research question asks TABLE 4-1 Three Research Approaches Research Purpose Exploratory research 1. What new product should be developed? Research Question Hypothesis What alternative ways are there to provide lunches for school children? Boxed lunches are better than other forms. What benefits do people seek from the product? Constructs unknown. What is the nature of any customer dissatisfaction? Suspect that an image of impersonalization is a problem. Descriptive research 4. How should a new product be distributed? Where do people now buy similar products? Upper-class buyers use specialty stores, and middle-class buyers use department stores. 5. What should be the target segment? What kinds of people now buy the product, and who buys our brand? Older people buy our brand, whereas the young married are heavy users of competitors’. 6. How should our product be changed? What is our current image? We are regarded as being conservative and behind the times. What is the relationship between size of service staff and revenue? For small organizations, an increase of 50 percent or less will generate marginal revenue in excess of marginal costs. Advertising program A generates more new riders than program B. 2. What product appeal will be effective in advertising? 3. How can our service be improved? Causal research 7. Will an increase in the service staff be profitable? 8. Which advertising program for public transit should be run? What would get people out of cars and into public transit? 9. Should a new budget or “no frills” class of airfare be introduced? Will the “no frills” airfare generate sufficient new passengers to offset the loss of revenue from existing passengers who switch from economy class? 74 The new airfare will attract sufficient revenue from new passengers. RESEARCH APPROACH MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-1 Online Research Communities Traditional marketing research is of late increasingly spilling over into cheaper and noninvasive media such as the Internet. Companies such as Kraft Foods and Coca-Cola have created private online research communities to collect data on consumer shopping behavior. Other companies like Dell and MarketFoods have “democratized” innovation through active interaction and participation of consumers in online forums. These online communities are increasingly being viewed as collective and outsourced research and development hubs where consumer problems surface and innovative solutions are brainstormed. what alternative ways there are to provide lunches for school children. It was precipitated by information suggesting problems with existing school lunch programs. In this case, there simply is no information that would suggest even the most tentative of hypotheses. In the second example, the research question is to determine what benefits people seek from the product. Since no previous research considered consumer benefits, it is difficult even to provide a list of them. In the third example, the hypothesis is advanced that a root cause of customer dissatisfaction is an image of impersonalization. However, this hypothesis is extremely tentative and provides at best only a partial answer to the research question. Exploratory research is also useful for establishing priorities among research questions and for learning about the practical problems of carrying out the research. Marketing Research in Action 4-1 illustrates how various companies are using online surveys to conduct exploratory research to gain insight into consumers’ lifestyles. A variety of productive exploratory approaches will be discussed in Chapters 5 through 8, including literature reviews, individual and group unstructured interviews, and case studies. Descriptive Research. Descriptive research embraces a large proportion of marketing research. The purpose is to provide an accurate snapshot of some aspect of the market environment, such as: ■ The proportion of the adult population that supports the United Way. ■ Consumer evaluation of the attributes of our product versus competing products. ■ The socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the readership of a magazine. ■ The proportion of all possible outlets that are carrying, displaying, or merchandising our products. In descriptive research, hypotheses often will exist, but they may be tentative and speculative. In general, the relationships studied will not be causal in nature. However, they may still have utility in prediction. In the fourth example in Table 4-1, the research question concerns where people buy a particular type of product. One hypothesis is that upper-class families buy this type of product in specialty stores and middle-class families use department stores. There is no explicit cause–effect relationship. The question is simply to describe where people buy. With this hypothesis it is clear that if data are gathered, it will be important to include indicators of social class and to be prepared to analyze the data with respect to stores classified as specialty and department stores. Thus, the development of the hypothesis provides guidance to the researcher by introducing more detail to the research question. Similarly, in the sixth example, the hypothesis suggests that when image is being measured, it is necessary to include measures of innovativeness. Marketing Research in Action 4-2 provides an example of the outcome of descriptive research. Causal Research. When it is necessary to show that one variable causes or determines the values of other variables, a causal research approach must be used. Descriptive research is not sufficient, for all it can show is that two variables are related or associated. Of course, evidence of a relationship or an association is useful; otherwise, we would have no basis for even inferring 75 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-2 Does Color Matter? In the soft-drink industry, Coke gave rise to Cherry Coke and Diet Coke. If flavor makes a difference in the drink, can colors do the same for cars? Research experts and color experts strongly agree. For new-car buyers, color and appearance are nearly as important as price. Automakers need to predict which color will be “hot” in the future and change 30 percent of their color offerings based solely on sales trends and the opinions of color experts. Since color is a subjective issue, consumers can’t foretell their color choice far in advance of a purchase decision and tend to be trend-conscious. Cooper Marketing Group conducts a nationwide consumer color preference study annually and devised a “color lifestyle” segmentation to identify the “movers and shakers in color.” The group designed a series of psychographic statements for respondents to choose from, which concerned the influence of color on purchasing decisions, and came up with three clearly defined color personalities: ■ The color-forward consumer likes to be the first to try a “new” color and is willing to spend more for a product in a fashionable color. Color-forward people tend to be women under 30 or over 50, or men under 30; city dwellers; impulse buyers; people who make less than $35,000 per year. ■ Color-prudent consumers will buy a “new” color only after seeing friends try it. They often put quality ahead of color when choosing products. Color-prudent people tend to be men or women age 30 to 50; suburban; careful shoppers; people who make more than $50,000 per year. ■ Color-loyal consumers replace a product with another of the same color and prefer safe colors such as blue or gray rather than fashionable colors. Color-loyal people tend to be men over 60; suburban or rural; people who dislike shopping; and may fall anywhere on the income spectrum. The color-forward group represents a small, but highly influential, consumer segment. Color-prudent shoppers make up the bulk of the market. Color-loyalists are a small, highly predictable segment because they repeatedly buy the same color. This demographic data allows automakers to examine reasons behind color trends and is useful in advertising and product positioning. Car manufacturers try to use color to establish brand character and distinguish themselves from their cousins or competition. Colors must not only be designed with consumer preferences in mind, they must also take into account the market segment and physical characteristics of each car. For example, “muscle” cars of the 1960s had colors that even Crayola’s crayons don’t include—”hemmy orange,” “top banana,” and “plum crazy”—and are a perfect example of the value color can bring to the marketing identity of a vehicle. Consumers rank green as the hottest shade (19.4 percent), followed by white (18.1 percent), light brown (11.8 percent), medium red (10 percent), and black (5.7 percent) as researched by Dupont Automotive Company. According to Cooper Marketing group, consulting consumers on color preferences before deciding on “hot” colors is like taking 5,000 consumers into a boardroom meeting. This research can effectively counter influential executives who simply decide against a recommended color. For more interesting articles on marketing research go to http://www.marketingpower.com/ResourceLibrary/Pages/ default.aspx SOURCE: Adapted from Tim Triplett, “Carmakers Driven by Quest to Find Tomorrow’s Color,” Marketing News, August 28, 1995, p. 38; Tim Triplett, “Research Probes How Consumers Rely on Color for Their Purchases,” Marketing News, July 1, 1996, pp. 1, 39. 76 that causality might be present. To go beyond this inference we must have reasonable proof that one variable preceded the other and that there were no other causal factors that could have accounted for the relationship. Suppose we had evidence that territories with extensive sales coverage, as measured by the number of accounts per salesperson, had higher per-capita sales. Are there sufficient grounds for a decision to increase sales coverage in areas where sales currently are weak? The answer would depend first on whether past increases in sales coverage had led to increases in sales. Perhaps the allocation of the sales force annual budget was based on the previous year’s sales. Then we might conclude that past sales increases led to an increase in sales coverage—a conclusion with dramatically different implications. Second, we would have to be sure that there were no other reasons for differences in sales between territories. Perhaps the weak sales territories had special RESEARCH APPROACH MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-3 Is Everyday Low Pricing Leading to Everyday Low Profits? Over the past six months, Procter & Gamble has announced that 50 percent of its volume was on “value pricing”—its name for everyday low prices—and that it expects to save $175 million from the shift. But a new report from Salomon Brothers offers a more sobering picture of P&G’s trendline at the checkout stand. In 10 of 11 household product categories it tracked, P&G’s dollar market share in supermarkets fell in 1992. The million-dollar question now facing the retail industry is, “Should supermarkets adopt the everyday low prices (EDLP) strategy? Does the EDLP strategy provide greater profits over traditional pricing strategies?” A group of researchers from the University of Chicago conducted an experiment to find answers to these questions. The researchers manipulated prices in 19 product categories in 88 stores of Dominick’s Finer Foods, Inc., based in Chicago, and patronized by an estimated 1 million people each week. Some stores used the standard pricing approach, called “high–low” in the industry. Others were converted to everyday low pricing, in which prices were reduced and kept low. In their analysis of everyday low pricing, the researchers moved prices up and down 10 percent in the key categories—which included beer, cereals, cigarettes, detergents, frozen entrees, juices, and soft drinks—and accounted for 30 percent of an average store’s sales. In stores with everyday low pricing in those categories, prices were dropped an additional 10 percent. In stores with a high–low strategy, prices were raised 10 percent to test consumer response. The result: Stores featuring everyday low pricing rang up slightly more sales but much less profit than the high–low stores. Overall, profits in the categories that used everyday low pricing were about 17 percent below what grocers would have made with the traditional high–low approach, the researchers calculate. They attribute the difference to the higher profit margins on items that aren’t on sale. To find out more about other Procter & Gamble products go to http://www.pg.com. SOURCE: Adapted from Jon Berry, “So How Is P&G’s Share? Lagging, New Study Says,” Brandweek, April 19, 1993, p. 16; Richard Gibson, “Broad Grocery Price Cuts May Not Pay,” Wall Street Journal, May 7, 1993, pp. B1, B8. requirements because of climate differences, and our product was at a disadvantage; or perhaps the weak territories were served by competitors with local advantages. In either case, adding more salespeople to weak sales territories would not improve sales, for the basic problems still would be present. Because the requirements for proof of causality are so demanding, the research questions and relevant hypotheses are very specific. The examples in Table 4-1 show the level of detail that is desirable. Marketing Research in Action 4-3 describes an application of causal research. Detective Funnel Each of the three types of research—exploratory, descriptive, and causal—has a distinct and complementary role to play in many research studies. This is most evident in studies that are initiated with this question: Why are our sales (share, patronage, contributions) below our objectives or below last year’s performance? The first step is to use exploratory techniques to generate all possible reasons for the problem (as shown in the drawing). Thereafter, a combination of descriptive and causal approaches is used to narrow the possible causes. Hence, the research is used in exactly the same way that a detective proceeds to eliminate unlikely suspects. Descriptive research evidence is often sufficient to filter out many of the possible causes. For example, a municipal transit company, seeking to understand why ridership has declined suddenly, can quickly dispose of weather-related factors by examining weather records to see whether the recent weather pattern has been unusual. Similarly, evidence from customer records can be used to determine whether or not telephone complaints about the quality of service have increased. Also, their surveys of customers will reveal that service frequency and fares are the two most important factors in evaluating transit service, whereas riders are indifferent to the amount and type of advertising inside buses. If fares have not risen or the costs of competitive transportation modes such as car parking or operating costs have 77 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION not declined, then attention can be focused on service frequency. Whether this is the causal factor depends on whether there was a reduction in frequency that preceded the decline in ridership. Descriptive research Problem Possible causes of the problem Exploratory research Probable causes Causal research Data Collection Methods The research designer has a wide variety of methods to consider, either singly or in combination. They can be grouped first according to whether they use secondary or primary sources of data. Secondary data are already available, because they were collected for some purpose other than solving the present problem. Included here are (1) the existing company information system; (2) databanks of other organizations, including government sources such as the Census Bureau or trade association studies and reports; and (3) syndicated data sources, such as consumer purchase panels, where one organization collects reasonably standardized data for use by client companies. These secondary sources are discussed in Chapters 5 and 6. Primary data are collected especially to address a specific research objective. A variety of methods, ranging from qualitative research to surveys to experiments, may be employed. These methods are described in more detail in Table 4-2. Some methods are better suited to one category of research than another. Because different methods serve different purposes, a researcher often will use several in sequence, so the results from one method can be used by another. For example, in investigating the potential for a new frozen dessert product, a researcher may begin by consulting secondary sources, such as Census statistics or industry trade association statistics, or by studying the performance of similar products that have been launched into the same market. Then qualitative research would be used to gain insights into the benefits sought by customers and into sources of dissatisfaction with the existing products. These tentative insights could be confirmed by telephone survey interviews of a representative sample of potential buyers. Finally, a controlled store experiment might be used to test the appeal of different packages. Data collection methods also vary depending on the managerial style and the culture of the organization. Marketing Research in Action 4-4 describes a method the Japanese use to collect data. TABLE 4-2 Relationship between Data Collection Method and Category of Research Category of Research Data Collection Method Exploratory Descriptive Causal Secondary sources Information system Databanks of other organizations Syndicated services a a a b b b b a b b a b b a Primary sources Qualitative research Surveys Experiments 78 a ⫽ Very appropriate method. b ⫽ Somewhat appropriate method. RESEARCH APPROACH MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-4 Data Collection—The Japanese Way Cultural and individual preferences play a major role in determining the research technique and the method of data collection adopted for a given research project. U.S. managers, in general, prefer gathering large quantities of data through surveys, which provides numbers that can be manipulated statistically. In contrast, managers in Japan prefer the “soft” approach. For example, when Sony conducted a market survey to determine consumers’ preference for a lightweight portable cassette player, results showed that consumers would not buy a tape player that did not have the recording function. Regardless of these results, Sony’s chairman Akio Morita went ahead with his plans for introducing the Walkman, and the rest is history. Sony’s disdain for surveys and other scientific research tools that U.S. managers believe in is shared by other large Japanese consumer goods manufacturers such as Matsushita and Toyota. Of course, Japanese corporations do want accurate and useful information about their markets; they just go about it differently. Japanese-style market research relies heavily on two kinds of information: “soft data” obtained from visits to dealers and other channel members; and “hard data” about shipments, inventory levels, and retail sales. Japanese managers believe that these data better reflect the behavior and intentions of fleshand-blood consumers. For an article on Japanese data collection methods go to http://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/articles SOURCE: Adapted from K. Johnny Johansson and Ikujiro Nonaka, “Market Research the Japanese Way,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1987, p. 16. Choosing a Research Approach for the HMO Study Seldom is a data collection method perfectly suited to a research objective. A successful choice is one that has the greatest number of strengths and the fewest weaknesses relative to the alternatives. Often this is achieved by combining several methods to take advantage of their best features and minimize their limitations. This was what Herb Ellis had to do to get the amount of information required by the research objectives and still remain within the budget limit (see Chapter 3 for a discussion of HMOs). From the beginning it was clear that the overall research approach would involve preliminary qualitative research followed by a survey, to expose the concept of a health maintenance organization to a large representative sample and test the specific hypotheses. Ellis proposed to conduct two focus groups to establish the vocabulary used by the target respondents and the attributes they used to evaluate a health plan, as well as explore their knowledge and expectations of health plans and their reasons for past or prospective changes. The problem was deciding the kind of survey to conduct. The principal survey options were mail questionnaires and personal or telephone interviews. Each, however, had a serious drawback. Personal interviews using trained interviewers were simply too costly and would have been feasible only with a sample that was too small to identify adequately the differences among the three segments. Telephone interviews would have been difficult to conduct, both because of the length of the questionnaire and the evident need for multiple-category questions, which are awkward to communicate orally. The questionnaire could have been administered by mail, but experience suggested that the response rates would be low unless substantial incentives and follow-ups were used. The solution was a self-administered questionnaire, with door-to-door delivery and pickup by untrained survey assistants. The advantage of the telephone in reaching large samples economically was utilized both to establish contact and then to get agreement to participate. During the initial phone call, arrangements were made to deliver and pick up the questionnaire. Before the pickup, a reminder phone call was made to ensure that the questionnaire had been completed. In some instances the respondent was given a stamped, addressed envelope so the questionnaire could be returned by mail. The research approach was successful in achieving a high response rate at a low cost per completed interview. The key to success was in matching the approach to the objectives of the 79 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION study and the characteristics of the population, notably, the presence of an up-to-date listing, the limited geographic area to be covered, and the participants’ inherent interest in the subject of the survey. RESEARCH TACTICS AND IMPLEMENTATION Once the research approach has been chosen, research tactics and implementation follow: the specifics of the measurements, the plan for choosing the sample, and the methods of analyses must be developed. Measurement The first step is to translate the research objective into information requirements and then into questions that can be answered by anticipated respondents. For example, one of the objectives in the HMO study is to estimate probable demand for the proposed HMO. This means that information will be needed on (1) the respondents’ overall evaluation of the proposed HMO, (2) their preference for the proposed HMO relative to their present health plan, and (3) their likelihood of adopting the new plan if it becomes available. As we will see in Chapters 10, 11, and 12, there are many ways to ask questions to obtain this kind of attitudinal information. Once the individual questions have been decided, the measuring instrument has to be developed. Usually this instrument is a questionnaire, but it also may be a plan for observing behavior or recording data. The researcher designing an effective questionnaire must be concerned with how questions on sensitive topics such as income can be asked, what the order of the questions should be, and how misinterpretations can be avoided. Sampling Plan Most marketing research studies are limited to a sample or subgroup of the total population relevant to the research question, rather than a census of the entire group. The sampling plan describes how the subgroup is to be selected. One approach is to use probability sampling, in which all population members have a known probability of being in the sample. This choice is indicated whenever it is important to be able to show how representative the sample is of the population. Other critical decisions at this stage are the size of the sample, as this has direct implications for the project budget, and the means of minimizing the effect on the results of sample members who cannot be reached or who refuse to cooperate. Anticipating the Analysis 80 When one is bogged down in the details of tactical research problems, it is easy to lose sight of the research objectives. Before actual data collection begins, the researcher must be alert to the possibility that the data will be inadequate for testing the hypotheses, or will be interesting but incapable of supporting action recommendations. Once the data have been collected, it is too late to lament, “Why didn’t we collect data on that variable?” or “Why didn’t we foresee there wouldn’t be enough respondents to test that hypothesis?” With these concerns in mind, the researcher should plan in advance how each of the data items is to be analyzed. One useful device is to generate fictional (dummy) data from the questions in the measurement instrument. These dummy data can be analyzed to ensure that the results address the objectives. For example, a great deal of preliminary data analysis consists of cross-tabulating one question with a second question. Each of the anticipated tables should be reviewed in terms of its relevance to the research question. Any shortcomings identified now will help guide the changes to the questionnaire before it is sent into the field. RESEARCH TACTICS AND IMPLEMENTATION Analysis of Value versus Cost and Time Involved At this stage of the design, most of the cost has yet to be expended, but the research is now completely specified and a reliable cost estimate should be available. Thus, a more detailed cost–benefit analysis should be possible to determine if the research should be conducted as designed or if it should be conducted at all. One component of cost to be considered is the time involved. A research study can take six months or more. It may be that such a time period will delay a decision, thus creating the risk that a set of attractive conditions will be missed. For example, if the research designed to test a new product takes too long, a competitor may preempt the market with its own version of the product. The analysis can conclude that either the research design is cost effective and should proceed or that it is not and should be terminated. Usually, instead of termination, consideration will be given to a revised research design that will be less costly. Perhaps a smaller sample could be used, or a laboratory experiment substituted for a field experiment. Throughout the whole research process, new information is uncovered that may make it useful to alter the purpose, the research question, the research approach, or some aspect of tactics. Indeed, it is much more accurate to think of the research process as a series of iterations and reconsiderations rather than an ordered sequence of well-defined steps. Marketing Research in Action 4-5 illustrates how firms are going after more budgets for marketing research. Errors in Research Design The usefulness of a research project depends on the overall quality of the research design and on the data collected and analyzed based on the design. Several potential sources of error can affect the quality of a research process. The errors can influence the various stages of the research process and result in inaccurate or useless research findings. Errors specific to each stage of the research process are mentioned in subsequent chapters. In Figure 4-2, we present an overview of the various types of errors that can affect a research design, with a brief description of each type. For a detailed description of the different types of errors, refer to the Appendix at the end of this chapter. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-5 It Pays to be Productive A 2007 survey by Aberdeen, a research and market intelligence company, revealed that Best-in-Class companies (those performing in the top 20 percent of all survey respondents) have instituted marketing performance strategies to showcase marketing’s value to the organization and improve management’s view to marketing decisions. Moreover, 33 percent of all companies surveyed recognize “proof of results for justification of next year’s marketing budget” as a key driver for the adoption of new performance measurement capabilities. Best-in-Class organizations showed significant performance improvements in comparison to Industry Average and Laggard companies in several areas over the previous twelve months. Specifically, the Best-in-Class companies achieved: ■ A 9% mean increase in Return on Marketing Investment (ROMI) in the past 12 months ■ A 12% mean increase of new leads into the sales pipeline in the past 12 months ■ A 11% mean increase of customer cross-sell/up-sell opportunities in the past 12 months ■ A 10% mean increase in customer retention rate in the past 12 months The key to success for marketing organizations rests in improving marketing performance, and identifying the drivers and detractors for performance. Further, with marketing performance becoming a key indicator for budget allocation, companies are now involved in identifying novel methods to make marketing activity more effective, efficient, and profitable. SOURCE: “Best-in-Class Companies Improve Marketing Performance Through Measurement Capabilities,” Market Wire, BNET Publications, November 2007. 81 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION TOTAL Error Sampling Error (Chapter 14) Design Errors • • • • • • Selection error Population specification error Sampling frame error Nonsampling Error Administering Errors • • • Questioning error Recording error Interference error Response Errors • Data error Intentional Unintentional Nonresponse Errors Failure to contact all members • Incomplete responses • Surrogate information error Measurement error Experimental error FIGURE 4-2 Errors in research design. BUDGETING AND SCHEDULING THE RESEARCH PROJECT 82 Decisions regarding the allocation of resources—time, money, and human resources—form an important part of the planning for a research project. In any organization there are constraints and limitations on the availability and use of resources. Given these constraints, budgeting and scheduling activities ensure that the resources are used effectively and efficiently. The cost–benefit analysis that precedes the research design phase gives management a preliminary idea of the value of a marketing research project. By comparing the expected research information with its anticipated costs—both time and money—management can decide whether a particular project is worth conducting. After deciding that the benefits exceed the costs, we enter into the blueprint stage, or the research design stage. Two common approaches to budgeting for a marketing research project are estimating the dollar costs associated with each research activity or determining the activities to be performed, in hours, and then applying standard cost estimates to these hours. The former approach typically is used when a marketing research project is relatively unusual or expensive. The latter approach is used for routine marketing research projects or when the researcher has considerable knowledge of research activity costs. Since certain research activities (most notably data analysis) cannot be initiated before other activities (data collection) are completed, research activities must be closely coordinated for a research project to be completed on time and within budget. Scheduling makes certain that appropriate personnel and resources are available to carry out the necessary research activities, so that the entire research process is completed as economically and efficiently as possible. One RESEARCH PROPOSAL ACTIVITY 0 1 3 5 78 9 MEETING HC MKTG. PERSONNEL DESIGNING QUESTIONNAIRE OBTAINING HC APPROVAL PRETESTING QUESTIONNAIRE REDESIGNING QUESTIONNAIRE MAKING MULTIPLE COPIES DEVELOPING CODING MECHANISM SELECTING SAMPLING FRAME DATA COLLECTION DATA ENTRY DATA ERROR CHECKING DATA ANALYSIS REPORT WRITING/TABLES/GRAPHS OBTAINING FEEDBACK FROM HC ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS MAKING CHANGES IN REPORT SUBMITTING FINAL REPORT MAKING PRESENTATIONS TO HC March 23, 2003 TIME PERIOD (Days) 28 33 35 40 RESPONSIBILITY 48 53 56 60 6364 IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC/SIR SIR SIR IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC IMC April 24, 1999 FIGURE 4-3 GANTT chart for the 2003 Cingular Wireless. approach to scheduling is an activity flowchart, a schematic representation or diagram that sequences the required research activities. Scheduling helps marketing researchers answer a vital question: Who is responsible for accomplishing what research activity within what time period? This is a critical question for any marketing research project, for it not only allocates a person to a task but also provides a time frame within which the task is to be accomplished. Essentially, it identifies the personnel accountable for a particular task. Several creative managerial techniques can be used for scheduling a research project. The most often used of these techniques are (1) the critical path method, (2) the program evaluation and review technique, (3) GANTT charts, and (4) graphical evaluation and review techniques. The critical path method (CPM) is a network approach that involves dividing the marketing research project into multiple components and estimating the time required to complete each component/activity. The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is a probabilitybased scheduling approach that recognizes and measures the uncertainty of project completion times. GANTT charts are a form of activity flowchart that provide a schematic representation incorporating the activity, time, and personnel requirements for a given research project. An illustration of the use of a GANTT chart for a marketing research project is given in Figure 4-3. Graphical evaluation and review techniques (GERT) are essentially a second-generation PERT approach to scheduling, in which both the completion probabilities and activity costs to be built into a network representation are considered. RESEARCH PROPOSAL A research proposal describes a plan for conducting and controlling a research project. While it has an important function as a summary of the major decisions in the research process, it is useful for a number of other reasons as well. Administratively, it is the basis for a written agreement or contract between the manager and researcher, as well as a record of what was agreed upon. As such, it provides a vehicle for reviewing important decisions. This helps ensure that all parties are still in agreement on the scope and purpose of the research, and reduces later misunderstandings. Frequently, proposals are used to make a choice among competing suppliers 83 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION and to influence positively the decision to fund the proposed study. For these latter purposes, a proposal should be viewed as a persuasive device that demonstrates the researcher’s grasp of the problem and ability to conduct the research, and also highlights the benefits of the study. Like other communications, the structure and coverage of a proposal must be tailored to the situation. However, the following content outline has been used widely, as it ensures that likely questions will be anticipated. Basic Contents of a Proposal Executive summary: A brief overview of the contents of the proposal. This may be the only part some people read, so it should be sufficient to give them a basic understanding of the proposal. Research purpose and objective: A description of the management problem, defining the information to be obtained in terms of research questions to be answered. This information must be related explicitly to the management problem. Research design: Presents the important features of the research methods to be used, with justification of the strengths and limitations of the chosen method relative to the alternatives. All aspects of the research that might be elements of a contract should be discussed, such as sample size, quality control procedure, data collection method, and statistical analysis. Details of questionnaire format, sample selection procedures, and so forth, should be confined to an appendix. Time and cost estimates: All negotiated aspects, including total fees, payments, provisions, treatment of contingencies such as the clients’ decision to expand or cancel the study, and the schedule for submission of interim, draft, and final reports. Appendixes: Any technical matters of interest to a small minority of readers should be put at the back end of the proposal. An example of a research proposal is given in Marketing Research in Action 4-6. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-6 Research Purpose A Research Proposal to Crystal Bank The purpose of the study is to analyze various issues pertaining to the credit needs of consumers living in certain areas of Austin that have branches of Crystal Bank. Crystal Bank is focused on improving customer satisfaction and wishes to undertake a study to continue doing so. Specifically, the research objectives are to ■ Gauge consumer sentiment on the services provided by various financial institutions; ■ Identify areas of improvement among the services provided by the financial institutions; ■ Determine the type of loans most requested for/needed by the consumers; ■ Identify the important and attractive attributes of the different types of loans; ■ Determine the types of lending institutions most popular with the consumers; ■ Identify the important characteristics that make a lending institution attractive to the consumers; and ■ Provide a demographic profile of the consumers. Research Design The survey research will be conducted by mailing a questionnaire to a total of 300 consumers living in the areas served by each of the 15 Austin area branches of Crystal Bank. The questions cover a wide range of issues including ■ Identifying the types of accounts operated by the consumer, whether he or she is happy with the services; 84 RESEARCH PROPOSAL MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-6 (continued) ■ Obtaining likelihood of the respondent applying for a specific type of loan in the next 12 months; ■ Determining the characteristics of the loan application and loan repayment that are important to the respondent; ■ Identifying characteristics of the lending institutions which influence the respondent’s choice; and ■ Finally, it will seek demographic and lifestyle information about the respondents. Sample Research Questions Do you currently deal with a financial institution? Yes No If Yes, what type of financial institutions do you deal with? (Check all that apply) Savings and Loan Credit Union Bank Other (Please specify ) Have you applied for any loan in the past five years? Yes No If Yes, where did you apply for the loan? (Check all that apply) Savings and Loan Mortgage Company Other (Please specify Credit Union Bank ) What type of loans did you apply for? (Check all that apply) Home purchase Home repair/remodeling Major appliance purchase Other (Please specify Automobile Educational Personal ) Rank the following factors in decreasing order of importance, which will influence your choice of lending institution in applying for any loan. (1—Most important; 2—Second most important, and so on) Institution reputation Location of the institution Present relationship with the institution Level of service provided Other (Please specify ) Sample Selection The sampling procedure employed for the project will be stratified sampling, a technique widely used in such surveys. Stratified sampling ensures representation of consumers living near each of the 15 locations of Crystal Bank. The quality of the mailing list will determine the successful implementation of stratified sampling. Data Collection Telephone surveys will be used to gather information. Statistical Analysis Based on the type of scaled response, appropriate statistical methods will be used and inferences made. However, given the type of scales which will be used, a substantial part of the analysis will focus on frequencies, relative frequencies, and cross-tabulations. Project Report A written report will be submitted, and an oral presentation of the findings can be made by our firm. Project Cost and Schedule The project will be completed within a period of 12 weeks from the time the information requirements are provided by Crystal Bank to our firm. However, this is dependent on the assumption that the data collection process will be completed within a four-week period. The cost of the project is expected to be $10,000.00. 85 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION DESIGNING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH As we explained earlier in Chapters 1, 2, and 3, international marketing research is conducted to aid in marketing decisions in more than one country. Designing a research process for international marketing decision making is considerably more complex than designing it for a single country. Conducting research in different countries implies much greater attention to issues such as: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Understanding the nature and type of information sought Defining the relevant unit of analysis Formulating problems, variable specifications, and categories Identifying and selecting sources of information Availability and comparability of data Achieving equivalence of samples and measures across countries and cultures Identifying the degree of centralization of the research Coordinating research across countries Finding errors in the research design Learning the cost of conducting research in multiple countries Marketing Research in Action 4-7 gives a brief synopsis of the pitfalls a researcher can encounter while conducting international marketing research. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-7 A Practitioner’s View of the Key Pitfalls in Conducting International Research The key pitfalls to avoid when conducting an international marketing research project are 1. Selecting a domestic research company to do your international research: Only a handful of domestic research companies are both dedicated to and expert in international research. It is important that international projects be coordinated by a team whose sensitivity and knowledge of foreign markets will ensure a well-executed study. Emphasis should be placed on selecting a research company with a solid reputation and extensive experience in the design, coordination, and analysis of global research. 2. Rigidly standardizing methodologies across countries: Attempting to be consistent with a methodological approach across countries is desirable but, among other things, two key questions need to be asked in order to determine whether a particular methodology will yield the best results: (a) Does the culture lend itself to that methodology? For example, relationships in Latin America are based on personal contact. Hence, when conducting business-to-business surveys, personal interviews, though expensive, are more efficient than telephone interviews. (b) Does the local infrastructure hinder the use of that methodology? For example, telephone surveys are very common in the United States, but in Russia the telephone system is notoriously inefficient. For example, the Moscow office for The Economist conducted an informal study to determine how ineffective the phone system is. The office kept a log of international calls made in a 30-day period. A total of 786 calls were attempted, of which 754 resulted in no connection, 6 calls were cut off halfway through, and 2 were wrong numbers. Also, the cost of using this inefficient system is exorbitant. To install the phone costs $2,865; one year’s service costs $485, and a 1-minute call from Moscow to London costs $3.30.1 86 ISSUES IN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH DESIGN MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 4-7 (continued) 3. Interviewing in English around the world: When conducting business-to-business research, even if the executives in the foreign country speak English, interviewing in English might result in inaccurate responses. Are the subjects comprehending the questions accurately and fully, or are there nuances to the question that are not being understood? Are their answers to open-ended questions without detail and richness due to their apprehension about responding in a non-native language? Moreover, has their attention been diverted to a consideration of accents (theirs and/or the interviewer’s) rather than the research questions at hand? Hence, even though translating the questionnaire may be costly and time consuming, it results in more accurate responses. 4. Setting inappropriate sampling requirements: Several country-specific variables influence the selection of appropriate sampling procedures in multicountry marketing research. For example, although random sampling is statistically the most reliable technique to use, it may be impractical in a given foreign market. Reasons may include the fact that in many of the less developed countries the literacy rate is very low. Hence, when sampling for surveys that require the respondent to be literate, random sampling might not work. 5. Lack of consideration given to language: Translations into the appropriate local languages need to be checked carefully. When possible, a quality control procedure of “back-translation” should be followed. The prime consideration is to ensure translation of the questionnaire so that there is equivalent meaning and relevance in all the countries where the project is being conducted. 6. Lack of systematic international communication procedures: One of the biggest problems of international research is communicating clearly with the local research companies. Do they understand the objectives of the study? Do they understand the sampling criteria? And do they understand what is expected from them? All too often, assumptions are made concerning the above issues that lead to major problems in the study’s execution. 7. Misinterpreting multicountry data across countries: Analysis of the study’s data must focus on the international market from which the data were gathered. Survey comparisons across countries should be made with the understanding of how the particular countries may differ on many key factors, including local market conditions, the maturity of the market, and the local competitive framework for the study category. 8. Not understanding international differences in conducting qualitative research: When conducting qualitative research such as focus groups, group discussions, and in-depth interviews, the researcher must be aware of the importance of culture in the discussion process. Not all societies encourage frank and open exchange and disagreement among individuals. Status consciousness may result in situations in which the opinion of one is reflected by all other participants. Disagreement may be seen as impolite, or certain topics may be taboo.2 Also, in some countries, such as parts of Asia, mixed-sex and -age groups do not yield good information in a consumer group discussion. Younger people, for example, often defer to the opinions of older people. If groups cannot be separated by age and sex, one-to-one interviews should be done. For more information on CASRO go to http://www.casro.org. SOURCE: Adapted from Daphne Chandler, “8 Common Pitfalls of International Research,” The Council of American Survey Research Organizations Journal, 1992, p. 81. ISSUES IN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH DESIGN Regardless of the basic research design selected (exploratory, descriptive, or causal), researchers need to be familiar with and experienced in handling several issues or problems unique to the conduct of marketing research within and across countries and cultural groups. Three issues critical to international research design are (1) determining information requirements, (2) determining the unit of analysis, and (3) achieving equivalence of construct, measurement, sample, and analysis.3 87 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION Determining Information Requirements In determining the information required for international marketing research, a primary consideration is the specific level and type of decision for which the research is being conducted. In general, the types of decisions fall into two broad categories—strategic decisions and tactical decisions. These two types differ significantly in their information requirements and the level in the organization structure where the decision making is done. Global strategic decisions are made mostly at corporate headquarters, and they normally concern issues pertaining to foreign market selection, market entry, mode of entry, market expansion strategies, and decisions related to global standardization versus local adaptation of marketing-mix strategies. Such decisions involve the entire organization and determine the overall allocation of company resources across country markets. If a firm is involved in more than one product category, the decisions involve not only country markets but also product markets within countries. The information required for global strategic decisions is governed by the company’s overall objectives and has implications pertaining to the company’s long-term survival. Tactical decisions, on the other hand, are concerned with micro-level implementation issues, and the information required for tactical decision making is obtained mostly from primary data. These decisions are concerned primarily with marketing-mix strategies in country/product markets—for example, what type of advertising copy would be effective in a given culture. The decisions are made at the functional or subsidiary level rather than at the corporate level. Unit of Analysis In conducting marketing research in more than one country, another major issue to be sorted out is at what level the analysis is to be done. Should it be done at (1) the global level, considering all countries simultaneously (a very complicated and seldom undertaken unit of analysis); (2) the regional level, considering groups of countries as being relatively homogeneous in terms of macroenvironmental factors (for example, the European Union and the North American Free Trade Agreement countries can be considered regional trading blocs); (3) the country level, where each country is taken as a separate unit; or (4) similar segments across countries (a recent trend that is gaining popularity). In this last type of analysis, the researcher targets homogeneous segments having similar tastes and preferences, across countries. Construct, Measurement, Sample, and Analysis Equivalence While conducting research across national boundaries, it is important for the researcher to be able to compare data across countries. Hence, examining the various aspects of data collection processes and establishing their equivalence becomes a necessity. The following example illustrates the importance of equivalence issues in international marketing research. Initial data from a study conducted in Europe suggested that the percentage of Belgian women taking baths was far higher than for any other nationality. However, a closer look at the data revealed that the time period was not comparable. While women in Belgium were asked if they had taken a bath in the last seven days, in all other countries the question had been, “Have you had a bath in the last three days?”4 Construct equivalence deals with how both the researcher and the subjects of the research see, understand, and code a particular phenomenon. The problem confronting the international researcher is that, because of sociocultural, economic, and political differences, perspectives may be neither identical nor equivalent. The international researcher is constantly faced with the selfreference criterion problem and its implications in formulating a research design. Construct 88 SUMMARY equivalence is concerned with the question: “Are we studying the same phenomenon in countries X and Y?” For example, in the United States, bicycles are used predominantly for recreation; in the Netherlands and various developing countries, they provide a basic mode of transportation. This implies that the relevant competing product set must be defined differently. In the United States it will include other recreational products, whereas in the Netherlands it will include alternative modes of transportation. Measurement equivalence deals with the methods and procedures the researcher uses to collect and categorize essential data and information. Construct and measurement equivalence are highly interrelated. Measurement is the operationalization of the constructs to be used. Measurement equivalence is concerned with the question: “Are the phenomena in countries X and Y measured the same way?” For example, while Americans measure distance in miles, in most of the other countries of the world it is measured in kilometers. Because of sociocultural, economic, and political differences among or between countries, the international researcher faces two problems not encountered by the domestic researcher: (1) identifying and operationalizing comparable populations, and (2) selecting samples that are simultaneously representative of other populations and comparable across countries. Sampling equivalence is concerned with the question: “Are the samples used in countries X and Y equivalent?” For example, children in the United States are legitimate respondents, because they exercise substantial influence in the purchase of cereals, toys, desserts, and other items, whereas in Asian cultures it is the parent who decides most of these issues. Regarding analysis equivalence, respondents from different countries have a tendency to choose either extreme scale points or middle values based on their cultural habits. Therefore, it may not be appropriate to compare the means of different scale items across countries; rather, some measure of deviation from the norm should be established. In other words, standard deviations may be better measures for comparison purposes. Apart from these issues, other aspects of the research process, such as identifying sources of data, availability, and comparability of data from different countries, problems associated with primary data collection across countries, and so forth, add to the complexity of the international research process. Also, these issues add to the nonrandom error component of the research process. These issues will be dealt with in greater detail in subsequent chapters. Summary In this chapter the focus has shifted from the manager’s problems and information needs—as expressed in the research purpose and objectives—to the strategic and tactical decisions that will achieve the objectives of the research approach. The various research approaches include qualitative research, surveys, observation, and experimentation. Tactical research design decisions include the choice of a research supplier, questionnaire development, the design of the experiment, the sampling plan, and the anticipation of data analysis. Implementation involves a final cost–benefit check, plus data collection, data analysis, and the development of conclusions and recommendations. Also, issues relevant to the design of international marketing research projects are discussed in this chapter. An important distinction can be made among exploratory, descriptive, and causal research. Exploratory research, which tends to involve qualitative approaches such as group interviews, is usually characterized by ill-defined or nonexistent hypotheses. Descriptive research, which tends to use survey data, is characterized by tentative hypotheses that fall short of specifying causal relationships. Causal research, which tends to rely on experimentation, involves more specific hypotheses involving causal relationships. Possible sources of errors in research designs are presented, and the concepts of budgeting and scheduling a research project are discussed in some detail. The major decisions during the research process are summarized in the research proposal. This step is essential to ensuring that the manager’s problems have been translated into a research study that will help obtain relevant, timely, and accurate information—and not cost more than the information is worth. 89 Questions and Problems 1. Is a research design always necessary before a research study can be conducted? 2. In what ways do exploratory, descriptive, and causal research designs differ? How will these differences influence the relative importance of each research approach at each phase of the marketing program development process described in Chapter 1? 3. What alternative research approaches should Herb Ellis consider for the HMO study? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the possible approaches? 4. A manufacturer of hand tools uses industrial supply houses to reach its major markets. The company is considering a new, automatic inventorycontrol procedure. How would you proceed with an exploratory study in advance of a larger study of the dealers’ reactions to this new procedure? 5. What problems can you foresee in a test of the hypothesis that federal food stamps issued to lowincome individuals are being used to supplement food budgets rather than replace former spending on food? 6. The problem of a large Canadian satellite TV company was described in Chapter 3. A number of hypotheses were offered by management to account for the poor penetration in several areas comprising 15 percent of the population of the total service area. If you were the researcher assigned to study this problem, how would you proceed? Specifically is the statement of purpose of the research adequate? What alternative research designs should be considered? Will one design be adequate to test all the hypotheses? 7. Smith Computers, Inc., a U.S.-based manufacturer of personal computers, has developed a microcom- puter using the Pentium microchip technology, but at a fraction of the cost of its competitors. The company has an in-house marketing research department, and a study has been ordered to assist in developing the marketing program for this product. a. Which type of research would be most appropriate for this study? b. What are the possible errors that could be made in designing the research project? c. Scott Peters, the head of the marketing research department, must prepare a research proposal. Suggest a content outline that will ensure that all likely questions will be addressed. d. Peters has also been given the task of identifying foreign market opportunities for this product. What critical issues must be considered in formulating the research design? 8. What possible problems might be encountered by a domestic research company in conducting an international research study? 9. a. How is a cost–benefit analysis useful to the management in deciding whether or not to conduct a marketing research study? b. What are the two approaches to budgeting for a market research project? c. For what situation is each approach most suitable? 10. Sugar Land Creamery is planning to launch a new flavor of ice cream and wants to get a “snapshot” of the potential market. The ice cream has a coconutwhite chocolate flavor with mixed-in pistachios and is aimed at the premium market. What type of research design is appropriate? Develop the research purpose, research questions, and hypothesis. End Notes 1. 2. 3. “Hung Up,” The Economist, July 20, 1991, p. 50. R. Michael Czinkota and A. Ronkainen Ilkka, International Marketing, 3rd ed. Orlando, FL: The Dryden Press, 1993, pp. 550, 551. V. Kumar, International Marketing Research, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2000. 4. C. Min-Han, Byoung-Woo Lee, and Kong-Kyun Ro, “The Choice of Survey Mode in Country Image Studies,” Journal of Business Research, No. 29, February 1994, pp. 151–152. Appendix Errors in Research Design1 The total error in a research study is the difference between the true mean value (within the population) of the variable being studied and the observed mean value obtained through the research study. This error has two main components: 1 Figure 4-2 provides a schematic diagram of the various types of errors possible in a research study. 90 Sampling Error Sampling error is the difference between a measure obtained from a sample representing the population and the true measure that can be obtained only from the entire population. This error occurs because no sample is a perfect representation of a given population, unless the sample size equals the population. This issue will be dealt with in greater detail in Chapters 14 and 15. Nonsampling Error Nonsampling error includes all other errors associated with a research project. There may be several different reasons for these errors, which can be broadly classified into four groups: (1) design errors, (2) administering errors, (3) response errors, and (4) nonresponse errors. Design Errors Design errors, also called researcher-induced errors, are mainly due to flaws in the research design. There are several different types of design errors. Selection Error Selection error occurs when a sample obtained through a nonprobability sampling method is not representative of the population. For example, if a mall interviewer interested in shopping habits of the visitors to the mall avoids interviewing people with children, he or she is inducing a selection error into the research study. Population Specification Error Population specification error occurs when an inappropriate population is chosen from which to obtain data for the research study. For example, if the objective of a research study is to determine what brand of dog food people buy for their pets, and the research draws a sample from a population that consists predominantly of cat owners, a population specification error is induced into the study. Sampling Frame Error A sampling frame is a directory of population members from which a sample is selected. A sampling frame error occurs when the sample is drawn from an inaccurate sampling frame. For example, if a researcher interested in finding the reasons why some people have personal computers in their homes selects the sample from a list of subscribers to PC World, he or she is inducing a sample frame error into the study. Surrogate Information Error Surrogate information error is the difference or variation between the information required for a marketing research study and the information being sought by the researcher. The famous (or rather infamous) New Coke taste tests are a classic example of surrogate information error. The researchers in that case were seeking information regarding the taste to New Coke versus Old Coke, but the study should have determined consumer’s attitudes toward a change in the product and not just their taste preferences. Measurement Error Measurement error is the difference or the variation between the information sought by a researcher for a study and the information generated by a particular measurement procedure employed by the researcher. Measurement error can occur at any stage of the measurement process, from the development of an instrument to the data analysis and interpretation stage. For example, if a researcher interested in the individual income of the respondent words the question as annual household income, a measurement error is being induced into the research study. Experimental Error An experiment is designed to determine the existence of any causal relationship between two variables. Any error caused by the improper design of the experiment induces an experimental error into the study. Data Analysis Error Data analysis error can occur when the data from the questionnaires are coded, edited, analyzed, or interpreted. For example, incorrect coding of data or a wrong use of a statistical analysis procedure can induce a data analysis error into the study. Administering Errors Questioning Error All errors that occur during the administration of a survey instrument to the respondents are classified as administering errors. They are caused by mistakes committed by the person administering the questionnaire. They may be caused by three major factors. This error arises while addressing questions to the respondents. If the interviewer does not word the question exactly as designed by the researcher, a questioning error is induced. 91 (continued) Recording Error This error arises from improperly recording the respondent’s answers. If the interviewer misinterprets the response or hears it inaccurately, this induces a recording error into the study. Interference Error This error occurs when an interviewer interferes with or fails to follow the exact procedure while collecting data. For example, if the interviewer fabricates the responses to a survey, it induces an interference error. Response Errors Response errors, also called data errors, occur when the respondent— intentionally or unintentionally—provides inaccurate answers to the survey questions. This might be due to the respondent’s failing to comprehend the question or it may be due to fatigue, boredom, or misinterpretation of the question. Response errors can occur when a respondent who is unwilling or embarrassed to answer a sensitive question provides an inaccurate or false response. Nonresponse Errors Nonresponse errors occur if (1) some members of a sample were not contacted, and hence their responses were not included in the study; or (2) some of the members contacted provide an incomplete or no response to the survey instrument. The primary reasons for this error occurring include the unwillingness of respondents to participate in the study and the inability of the interviewer to contact the respondents. CASE 4-1 Reynolds Tobacco’s Slide-Box Cigarettes There is a tendency for management to think of marketing research as an expense, perhaps a necessary expense, but an expense nevertheless. With corporate attention being focused more and more on the bottom line, one question is often asked: “What is the impact of current or potential new activities on profit?” This case focuses on how marketing research can aid in decision making and enhance the bottom line. To give you some basic understanding of the business situation, the cigarette industry is very mature. Many big opportunity areas for product differentiation have already been thoroughly explored and mined by the major manufacturers. There are different product attributes, ranging from different flavors (menthol and nonmenthol), to different “tar” levels (full flavor, light/low “tar,” ultralow “tar”), to different lengths (king size to 120 mm), and even different circumferences (superslims to wide circumference). Imagery is another means of differentiating products, so there are upscale cigarettes, masculine cigarettes, feminine cigarettes, and so on. Finally, price is another important dimension differentiating brands. Combining all these methods of differentiating products results in literally hundreds of types of cigarettes available to smokers, ranging from superslim, ultralow-tar 120s in a box to traditional nonfilter 70-mm cigarettes. With this in mind, you would think that there are few new ideas under the sun for tobacco manufacturers. 92 That may be, but ideas that have the potential to draw business from competition and increase one company’s share of the market are constantly being examined. One such new idea was a brand that R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co. (RJR) had in test market. This new brand was developed to capture Marlboro smokers with imagery that was more sociable and had more appeal to both male and female adult smokers than Marlboro’s traditional solitary cowboy image. From a product standpoint, the new brand’s smoothness was emphasized in contrast to the rich flavor emphasized in Marlboro advertising. Marlboro’s conventional crushproof box has always been a key feature of the brand. Rather than offering the new brand in an identical packaging configuration, Reynolds Tobacco’s R&D department developed a slide-box, a unique configuration that operated something like a matchbox. This feature was intended as yet another point of difference to attract Marlboro smokers to the new brand. Concept product test results of the new brand (Table 4-3) in a conventional crush-proof box, versus the slide-box, indicated that the slide-box would enhance the new brand’s appeal among prospect smokers. When Reynolds management saw these results, they said, “If this slide-box is better than the conventional crush-proof box, we shouldn’t just limit it to a new brand that may or may not make it out of the test market. To really capitalize on the apparent appeal of the slide-box, we should put it on our established products.” The direction to put it on established brands is not as clear as it may sound at first blush. There were several questions to be resolved: Which brands? Which styles of which brands? Should the slide-box replace TABLE 4-3 Concept Product Test Results Conventional Crush-Proof Box Slide-Box Positive purchase interest 56S 64 Intended frequent use As usual brand Occasionally 59S 20 39 68 24 44 Package increased purchase interest Increased a lot Increased a little 51S 27 24 73 53 20 Overall positive taste rating 72S 80 S ⫽ Significant at 80% confidence level or greater. any current conventional crush-proof box, or should it be an additional offering? How would a slide-box launch fit in with other planned programs? How big an announcement should this be? (All media forms? Pointof-sale advertising only?) Should pack graphics be redesigned to emphasize the change, or should they just be translated from existing graphics? How much volume would the slide-box generate and, therefore, how much new equipment would need to be purchased? Given the excitement over this proposition, tentative plans were made regarding which brands would use the slide-box, volume projections were calculated, and equipment was ordered. The long equipment lead time provided time to resolve some of the key questions surrounding the slide-box. The most critical question was which brand or brands should use the slide-box. The issue here was one of image compatibility, that is, whether the inherent image of the slide-box was compatible with the current or desired image of the brand. Another critical question was what was its source of appeal. If it was indeed a better package, what were specific benefits that could be advertised to prospect smokers? A good deal of what marketing researchers do is implement standardized methodologies to answer recurring marketing questions: How does a product compare to competition? How effective is this new ad campaign? How appealing is this premium? The issues and questions surrounding the slide-box were new, so the marketing research department developed a custom research design that they felt would generate required consumer input on the slide-box. The research was designed with two objectives. The first objective was to determine which of RJR’s major established brands has an image consistent with the image projected by the slide-box; and the second objective was to determine the degree of interest in this new slide-box packaging among each of these brands’ prospect smoker groups. In designing the study, they knew that they needed to analyze the data by each brand’s prospect group. So they designed the sample in two phases. First, a large random sample of adult smokers was drawn. Then additional interviews were conducted to give them large enough bases of specific types of smokers. As a result, the sample for the study consisted of 767 adult smokers, 600 of whom were selected randomly, and an additional 167 interviews to fill out specific prospect group quotas. Given the sample size and the fact that RJR wanted representation across the country, the marketing research department conducted personal interviews in 20 geographically dispersed markets during June 1991. The biggest challenge in designing this research was to evaluate the image of the packaging itself without allowing any influence of the image of any brand. Hence, they showed smokers a sample of the packaging without any graphics. Further, since they wouldn’t be able to evaluate people’s responses to the slide-box packaging in a vacuum, they also showed them prototypes of current packaging, that is, conventional crush-proof box and soft pack, also without any graphics. This provided benchmarks to help them interpret the results. They agreed that there are two aspects of packaging on which the packs should be evaluated: benefits of the packaging itself (such as protecting the contents, being easy to open or close, etc.), and the image of the types of smokers who would use such packaging (such as whitecollar versus blue-collar). They showed respondents prototypes of each of the three types of packaging attributes and user imagery. Importantly, each smoker interviewed was given a fresh prototype and allowed to open it. After they had obtained this information, they then had each 93 TABLE 4-4 Overall Evaluation of Packs Slide-Box Pack (%) Conventional Crush-Proof Box (%) Soft Pack (%) Favorable 60 70 42 Unfavorable 26 8 26 of the brands in their study rated on these same user characteristics. Finally, they asked the smokers in their study directly how appropriate the three types of packages were for the brands of cigarettes included in their study. The order in which all packs and brands were presented was rotated to avoid any order bias. The results of the overall evaluation of packs are given in Table 4-4. The outcomes of the perception studies are illustrated in Figures 4-4, 4-5, and 4-6. The researchers found that the slide-box had functionality problems as compared to the conventional crush-proof box. It was seen as having cosmetic advantages, such as being attractive, modern, being in its own case, and having an edge over the conventional crush-proof box. And, once opened, hard to keep closed. Thus, the cigarettes were more apt to fall out. The slide-box was also seen as less convenient to use. And importantly, the slide-box was perceived to be more gimmicky than the conventional crush-proof box. It is important to note that although these problems were pervasive, in that all target groups felt this way, it was conceivable that these pack problems might go away as smokers became more experienced with using this configuration. It was also important that the user image of the slide-box was, with one exception, not felt by respondents to be compatible with the user imagery of the brands for which the pack was being considered. The analysis found that only one of the established brand’s prospect group was most likely to find the slide-box as appropriate for the brand as the conventional crush-proof box and to believe that brand’s smokers and slide-box users share many similar characteristics. Both groups were pictured as white-collar, upper-class women seeking changes and new experiences. The only inconsistency was that respondents perceived the slide-box user as European. Their image of the slide-box user was more consistent with their image of their current brand than their image of the conventional crush-proof-box user. The results of the appropriateness of packs of cigarette brands are presented in Table 4-5. The new brand was not included in this national study, as it was only in test market at this time. However, the new brand’s prospect group did not rate the slide-box as highly overall as they rated the conventional crush-proof box. Figure 4-7 provides the differences in perception of slide-box-pack users among the new-brand smokers. Perceptions of slide-box-pack users Contemporary Old-fashioned Seeks change Resists change Seeks new experiences Prefers familiar Upper-class Lower-class White-collar Blue-collar Leader Follower Balances work & play Work comes first 57% 6% 56% 7% 51% 6% 36% 5% 34% 6% 31% 10% 23% 8% FIGURE 4-4 Perceptions of slide-box-pack users. 94 Perceptions of slide-box vs. conventional crush-proof-box users Male 30% 11% 27% Contemporary Frequent smoker 57% 23% 11% Balances work and play Conventional crush-proof box Slide-box 22% 23% FIGURE 4-5 Perceptions of slide-box versus conventional crush-proof-box users. Perceptions of slide-box vs. soft-pack users 36% Frequent smoker 11% 34% Old-fashioned Prefers familiar Resists change 8% 29% 6% 28% 7% 34% Older Blue collar 12% 22% 6% Soft pack Slide-box FIGURE 4-6 Perceptions of slide-box versus soft-pack users. TABLE 4-5 Appropriateness of Packs of Cigarette Brands Percent Saying Extremely/Very Appropriate Established Brand A Established Brand B Established Brand C Established Brand D Most Often Brand Slide-box 32 47 49 39 48 Conventional crush-proof box 55 64 51 62 73 Soft pack 61 44 39 55 44 95 Perceptions of slide-box-pack users (Among Dakota smokers) Seeks change Resists change 59% 7% Contemporary Old-fashioned Seeks new experiences Prefers familiar 58% 8% 57% 5% Upper-class Lower-class 7% White-collar Blue-collar 7% 36% 35% Balances work & play Work comes first 23% 8% FIGURE 4-7 Perceptions of slide-box-pack users (among new brand smokers). Questions for Discussion 1. 2. Why are the results of the second study different from the first? Based on these findings, what is your recommendation to the company? CASE 4-2 California Foods Corporation In early 1990, the international marketing manager at California Foods Corporation (CFC), Lois Verbrugge, was considering how to react to the continuing decline of CFC grape juice sales in the Puerto Rican market. In 1989, the marketing staff in the international division estimated that sales of CFC grape juice had fallen off by approximately 30 percent from the previous year. To determine why this loss of volume had taken place, extensive consumer research was utilized. But, as of February, Ms. Verbrugge and her staff had not come up with any clear-cut remedies for CFC’s problems in the Puerto Rican market. Company Background CFC was a wholly owned subsidiary of the Federation of Grape Growers’ Associations. The federation purchased the California Foods Corporation in 1956 as part of a strategy to integrate its business forward into the processing and distribution of grape products. CFC continued in 1990 to operate as an agribusiness largely as it had in 1956. The federation supplied the grapes, 96 Source: This case was adapted with permission from a case originally written by H. Daniel Murphy and Mary E. Brownell, “How Research Can Save Your Company Time and Money!: A Case Study,” The Council of American Survey Research Organizations Annual Journal, 1992, pp. 107–112. and CFC handled all processing and marketing of the products. CFC’s sales had increased every year since the takeover by the federation. CFC was generally considered the foremost leader in the juice industry. It set the standards for progressive marketing techniques and new product development for the industry. With sales reaching a quarter billion dollars in 1989, the growers and CFC were the largest grape growing, processing, and marketing enterprise in the world. Originally, CFC had produced only grape-related products: grape jams, grape jelly, frozen grape concentrate, grape drink, and grape preserves. In recent years, however, CFC had expanded to include nongrape products, too. Between 1970 and 1982, CFC introduced 36 new products. In 1990, CFC incorporated a complete line of fruit juices with a selection of fruit drinks and a line of fruit-flavored preserves. CFC’s International Division CFC distributed an assortment of products to foreign markets with the majority of sales derived from juices and fruit drinks. It marketed its products to over 40 countries. Major markets included Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Japan. CFC products were distributed by food brokers and distributors to retail stores and food service institutions. In 1988, the International Division experienced record sales and greater than expected profitability. Sales slipped slightly during 1989, largely the result of sales erosion in the Puerto Rican market. Frozen concentrates represented another competing group that was large and had shown strong growth in the preceding three years. Again, the miscellaneous/all-others subgroup had shown steady growth. Perhaps some of CFC grape juice’s loss could be attributable to a shift of sales across generic categories. The Juice and Drinks Market in Puerto Rico Most of the juice consumption in Puerto Rico was composed of imported products. Some of the more popular brands competing for market share were CFC, Seneca, Pueblo, and Grand Union. There was only one domestic grape juice producer, selling under the name Richy. Richy had been in business for a few years, but its impact on the market had been minimal. Table 4-6 outlines the imported volumes of juices and drinks into Puerto Rico over the last three years. As the table reveals, grape juice imports (California Foods’ and others) were declining rather sharply. Still, the grape juice market was by far the largest juice market in Puerto Rico. The “fruit drink” category was quite large too and was growing, especially the miscellaneous/all-others subgroup, which included Tang’s imported powdered grape and orange drinks. Because many Puerto Ricans equated powdered grape with grape juice, it was possible that at least some of CFC grape juice’s volume loss could be traceable to these imports, although no hard evidence existed. CFC’s Entry into Puerto Rico CFC’s first experience in Puerto Rico came in the 1950s when it introduced CFC grape juice. At that point, grape juice was practically unheard of by the majority of Puerto Ricans. Despite this, the introduction was a resounding success and CFC grape juice became the best-selling juice in Puerto Rico. Rumor had it that CFC grape juice’s success was traceable to the Puerto Rican beliefs that grape juice was good for men’s virility and for women’s hemoglobin during their menstrual cycles. Pseudomedicinal drinks were concocted by mixing eggs with grape juice. The resulting mixture was referred to as an “egg punch.” To take advantage of this seemingly unique consumer behavior, CFC launched an “egg punch” campaign in 1985. One television spot showed a young Puerto Rican man at a disco drinking an egg punch and subsequently departing with an attractive young woman. Print advertising featured a mother nursing her newborn and copy expounding the nutritional value of grape juice. TABLE 4-6 Juices and Drinks Imported into Puerto Rico Thousands of Cases (not equivalents) Percent of Change 1987 1988 1989 1988–1989 Fruit juices Vegetable juice Tomato juice Apple juice Citrus juice Nectars Pineapple juice Prune juice Grape juice CFC Other 20.6 45.5 84.5 203.5 — 22.5 25.8 569.1 40.6 23.4 21.2 109.0 198.7 5.0 22.9 23.3 586.5 37.1 23.9 26.3 105.6 183.4 1.8 29.1 29.5 412.1 26.6 ⫹2.1 ⫹24.6 ⫺3.1 ⫺7.7 ⫺64.0 ⫹27.1 ⫹26.6 ⫺29.7 ⫺28.3 Fruit drinks RJR Bordena Miscellaneous/all othersb 114.1 92.9 260.5 161.0 124.4 296.4 116.3 132.6 356.0 ⫺27.8 ⫹6.6 ⫹20.4 Fruit juice—frozen and concentrated Citrus Central 184.8 CFC 34.4 Miscellaneous/all others 378.1 236.6 24.4 431.5 219.5 32.5 499.8 ⫺7.2 ⫹33.2 ⫹15.8 a Includes Orange Burst instant breakfast drink, Wyler’s ades. Includes Tang powdered grape and orange drinks. Source: Maritime Reports, Washington, DC. U.S. Government Printing Office, 1990. b 97 TABLE 4-7 Consumption Results of Sample of Puerto Rican Grape Juice Users During 1988 and 1989 Previous Users n ⴝ 45) (n Juices More Same Less Orange 57.7% 28.9% 11.1% Grape 13.3 37.8 24.5 Pineapple 22.2 26.7 33.3 Current CFC Users n ⴝ 155) (n Don’t Use More Same Less 43.5% 42.2% 11.7% 24.4 38.9 47.4 13.0 0.7 17.8 23.3 29.9 31.1 15.7 2.3% Don’t Use 2.6% Grapefruit 15.6 11.1 51.2 22.1 5.2 16.9 45.4 32.5 Fruit drinks 17.7 20.0 35.5 26.8 13.6 29.2 23.3 33.9 Fruit nectar 20.0 35.6 26.7 17.7 13.6 30.5 30.5 25.4 Powdered drinks 31.1 17.8 24.4 26.7 9.1 32.5 34.4 24.0 Grape juice was indeed CFC’s biggest seller in Puerto Rico. Sales for 1989 were 412,000 cases. Frozen concentrated grape juice accounted for sales of 32,000 cases during 1989. Other CFC products were Calfood fruit drink, California instant powdered grape drink, CFC grape soda, and CFC strawberry soda. Consumer Research In order to ascertain the causes of CFC’s rapid decline in grape juice sales, an “Awareness, Usage, and Attitude Study” was compiled in February 1990 to update the marketing department’s understanding of Puerto Rican grape juice consumers. Two hundred personal interviews were done with people who had used grape juice during the previous two years. The study was administered by a Puerto Rican consulting group. Results are listed in Table 4-7. The results of the study showed that the demand for orange juice had increased tremendously since 1988. Both current and previous study users of CFC grape juice were drinking much more orange juice by 1990. In addition, the percentage of respondents who did not use orange juice was practically nil. Current users of CFC juice continued to drink large quantities of grape juice, as the figures reveal. In fact, 86 percent of all CFC users said that they drank as much, or more, grape juice in 1989 as they had previously. However, among the previous CFC users, there were many more who had decreased their consumption of grape juice than had increased it. Therefore, it was implied that they were not switching from one grape juice brand to another, but drinking more orange juice instead. Over 57 percent of previous CFC users drank more orange juice by 1990 than they had in early 1988. The main motive for the purchase of grape juice by mothers in the sample was because their children had asked for and/or liked it. The study also revealed that 98 Puerto Ricans perceived grape juice to be both tasty and nutritious. On the negative side, respondents who were buying less grape juice had a variety of reasons for not buying it; most notably, very high price and preference for other juices were mentioned. It was discovered that previous CFC users replaced grape juice with three other types of beverages: other canned juices (pineapple, orange, grapefruit), natural juices (orange, grapefruit, tamarind, lemon), and carbonated drinks (Pepsi, Coca-Cola, and the like). Researchers had asked the question “Why aren’t you using more CFC grape juice?” The most frequent response indicated that CFC’s price was too high and that the respondents tried to buy products that were more economical. Secondary reasons suggested that they did not like the taste and preferred other flavors to grape. Table 4-8 summarizes consumers’ reasons for buying either less or no grape juice in general and of CFC’s in particular. CFC had performed a similar consumer study in 1985 to determine grape juice drinkers’ attitudes toward CFC grape juice. One section of the 1985 questionnaire involved consumers’ opinions of the characteristics of CFC grape juice. Likewise, part of the 1990 survey was devoted to similar questioning. In both studies, respondents rated CFC grape juice on the basis of eight criteria, on a scale from 1 to 6. The figures in Table 4-9 represent average ratings for each of the product characteristics. Both studies seemed to suggest that CFC grape juice had been, and still was, well regarded in the Puerto Rican market. There had not been too much change in the general opinion that CFC grape juice was a good-tasting, nutritious, high-quality product. In consumers’ minds even the price had become more reasonable in relation to the generally stormy economic conditions. So what seems to be the problem with CFC grape juice in the Puerto Rican market? TABLE 4-8 Respondents’ Reasons for Not Buying Grape Juice High price Reasons for No Longer Serving Grape Juice Reasons for No Longer Serving CFC Grape Juice 22.6% 23.2% Only use it occasionally 9.7 4.4 29.0 22.2 Harmful to stomach/diet 12.9 10.3 Prefer natural juices 16.1 6.7 Prefer other flavors Not accustomed to using it n.a. 8.9 Prefer powdered drinks n.a. 8.7 Other 9.7 15.6 Total 100.0% 100.0% TABLE 4-9 Averaged Ratings of CFC Grape Juice (scale of 1 to 6) Sweetness Taste Economy Nutrition Naturalness Best for children Best for adults Quality n ⫽ 200) 1990 Study (n n ⫽ 200) 1985 Study (n 4.95 4.96 3.86 5.06 4.91 4.97 4.88 5.13 3.96 4.73 3.47 5.24 5.05 4.92 4.74 5.17 The study data appear to support the notion that CFC grape juice is held in high esteem in Puerto Rico, yet a solution to CFC’s sales problem is needed. With this in mind, Ms. Verbrugge arranged a meeting with Jeff Hartman, Market Research Manager, to discuss and review the situation. Ms. Verbrugge wanted to examine the problem in more detail and was prepared to commit additional funds for marketing research. Before making any decision, however, she wanted Mr. Hartman’s assessment of the situation. Source: This case was reprinted with permission from Subash C. Jain, International Marketing Management, CA: Southwestern Publishing Co., 1993. Cases for Part I Nature and Scope of Marketing Research CASE I-1 Clover Valley Dairy Company In the fall of 1978, Vince Roth, General Manager of the Clover Valley Dairy Company, was considering whether a newly developed multipack carrier for yogurt was ready for market testing and, if so, how it should be tested. Since 1930, the Clover Valley Dairy Company had sold, under the trade name Valleyview, milk, ice cream, and other milk by-products—such as yogurt, cottage cheese, butter, skim milk, buttermilk, and cream—in Camden, New Jersey. The raw milk was obtained from independent farmers in the vicinity of Camden and was processed and packaged at the Clover Valley Dairy. Clover Valley’s sales had grown steadily from 1930 until 1973 to an annual level of $3.75 million. However, between 1973 and 1977, a series of milk price wars cut the company’s sales to $3.6 million by 1977. During this 99 time, a number of other independent dairies were forced to close. At the height of the price wars, milk prices fell to 75 cents per half-gallon. In the spring of 1977, an investigation of the milk market in Camden was conducted by the Federal Trade Commission and by Congress. Since then, prices had risen so that Clover Valley had a profit for the year to date. Clover Valley served approximately 130 grocery store accounts, which were primarily members of a cooperative buying group or belonged to a 10-store chain that operated in the immediate area. Clover Valley no longer had any major chain accounts, although in the past they had sold to several. Because all three of the major chains operating in the area had developed exclusive supply arrangements with national or regional dairies, Clover Valley was limited to a 30 percent share of the Camden area dairy product market. Although Clover Valley had a permit to sell its products in Philadelphia, a market six times the size of Camden, management decided not to enter that market and instead concentrated on strengthening their dealer relationships. In addition, it was felt that, if a price war were to ensue, it might extend from Philadelphia into the Camden area. With the healthier market and profit situation in early 1978, Clover Valley began to look for ways to increase sales volume. One area that was attractive because of apparent rapid growth was yogurt. During the previous three years, management had felt that this product could help to reverse Clover Valley’s downward sales trend, if given the correct marketing effort. However, the financial problems caused by the loss of the national grocery chains and the price war limited the firm’s efforts. As a result, Mr. Roth felt that Clover Valley had suffered a loss of share of yogurt sales in the stores they served. Since 1975, Mr. Roth had been experimenting with Clover Valley’s yogurt packaging with the hope that a new package would boost sales quickly. All dairies in Clover Valley’s area packaged yogurt in either 8-oz or 1-lb tubs made of waxed heavy paper. Clover’s 8-oz tub was about 5 in. high and 212 in. in top diameter, tapering to 134 in. at base. The first design change to be considered was the use of either aluminum or plastic lids on the traditional yogurt tubs. However, these were rejected because the increased costs did not seem to be justified by such a modest change. Changing just the lid would not make their tubs appear different from their competitor’s tubs, it was felt. By 1976, Mr. Roth had introduced a completely different package for Clover Valley’s yogurt. The 8-oz tubs were replaced by 6-oz cups, designed for individual servings. In addition, the new cups were made of plastic and had aluminum foil lids. The 1-lb tubs were unchanged. No special promotional effort was undertaken by Clover Valley, but unit sales of the new 6-oz 100 cups were more than triple the unit sales of the old 8-oz tubs (see Exhibit I-1). While the increased sales volume was welcomed, the new plastic cups increased unit packaging costs from 7.2 cents to 12.0 cents. This more than offset the saving of 4 cents because of the reduction in the amount of yogurt per container. Retail prices were reduced from 41 cents to 34 cents for the new 6-oz cup, while the price for the 1-lb tub remained at 75 cents. The increased sales then increased the total dollar contribution to fixed costs from yogurt by only 5 percent. (All dairies priced their yogurt to give retailers a 10 percent margin on the retail selling price. Competitor’s retail prices for their 8-oz tubs remained at 41 cents.) Mr. Roth felt that both the change to plastic and the convenience of the smaller size were responsible for the increased sales. However, he was disappointed with the high packaging costs and began to look at ways of reducing them, without changing the package much further. He felt another package change would be too confusing to consumers. Because of the economies of scale needed to produce plastic containers, costs could be reduced if more units were produced and sold. Mr. Roth felt that packaging a number of cups together would make the 6-oz cups easier to carry home, which might increase sales, and would certainly reduce packaging costs. By 1978, work had begun on developing a multipack holder to hold six cups together. A single strip of aluminized plastic would serve both as holder and as the top for two rows of three yogurt cups. A single cup could be readily separated from the others in the pack. Dairy personnel constructed wooden models of several different cups for use with the holder and with plasticmolding experts, choosing one that would mold easily and cheaply. Eventually, some of these carriers were made to order for testing in the plant and among Clover Valley employee families. Several problems soon became apparent. The holder did not always fasten securely to all six cups in the multipack. While the holder strip was being put on, the side walls of the cups were slightly compressed, causing some cups to crack at the edges. When consumers tried to remove one of the cups, they sometimes pulled the top from an adjacent cup. The problem was the strength of the aluminized plastic, which made it difficult to tear even when perforated. The multipack was redesigned and again tested in the plant and by employee families. It appeared that the new package was performing satisfactorily. Negotiations with Clover Valley’s carton supplier resulted in an estimated price of 8.5 cents for the first 100,000 units. Thereafter unit costs would drop to 7.5 cents per 6-oz cup. Mr. Roth decided that the best multipack carrier presently possible had been designed. His attention then turned to methods of testing the new packs for consumer acceptance. Mr. Krieger, his father-in-law EXHIBIT I-1 Clover Valley Dairy Company: Sales Results 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Unit Sales of Yogurt—8-oz Tubs (6-oz after June 1977) January February March April May June July August September October November December 1,740 1,437 1,347 1,203 996 960 853 861 915 978 1,254 1,212 1,485 2,928 3,528 3,531 3,651 3,258 3,888 4,425 4,044 3,546 3,696 3,561 4,731 4,499 6,177 7,899 7,629 6,677 6,081 5,814 12,726a 13,422 15,105 23,601 23,214 22,146 17,916 18,594 20,187 20,676 20,199 18,420 14,424 16,716 16,716 18,657 3,725 3,510 3,344 3,503 3,101 3,537 3,827 3,103 2,871 3,028 2,796 3,086 2,971 3,232 2,866 3,392 2,390 2,094 2,589 2,384 2,895 Unit Sales of Yogurt—1-lb Tubs January February March April May June July August September October November December a 3,882 4,015 4,061 3,573 3,310 3,252 3,383 3,721 3,415 3,276 3,865 4,110 3,715 3,596 3,670 3,405 3,482 3,376 3,366 3,307 3,275 3,450 4,650 3,908 3,937 3,833 3,285 3,333 3,609 3,366 2,837 2,616 2,729 2,816 3,375 3,386 6-oz tubs. and president of Clover Valley, sent him the following letter concerning market testing: Dear Vince, Concerning the market test of the new cups and carriers, I have a few suggestions that may be helpful, although the final decision is yours. I think we should look for a few outlets where we are not competing with the other dairies, perhaps the Naval Base or Bill’s Market. Actually, if we use Bill’s, then the test could be conducted as follows: 1. Give Bill a special deal on the multipacks for this weekend. 2. In the next two weeks, we’ll only deliver the multipacks and no single cups at all. 3. In the third week we’ll deliver both the packs and the single cups. 4. During the third weekend we’ll have someone make a survey at the store to determine its acceptance. 5. Here is how it could be conducted: a. Station someone at the dairy case. b. After the shoppers have chosen either single cups or the multipacks, question them. c. If they chose the multipacks, ask them why. d. If they chose the single cups ask them why they didn’t buy the packs. e. Thank them for their help and time. Yours, CHARLES KRIEGER (signed) Questions for Discussion 1. Should the new multipack carrier be tested? 2. If a test is judged necessary, what should be the criteria for success or failure? 3. How useful is the proposed test in addressing the management problem? What changes, if any, would you recommend? 101 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA Learning Objectives ■ Define and introduce the various secondary data sources. ■ Discuss the uses, benefits, and limitations of secondary data. ■ Describe the various sources and forms of secondary data. ■ Provide a brief overview of the sources of secondary data used in international marketing research. ■ Get a feel for the applications of secondary data in domestic and international marketing research. The previous chapters identified many data sources. Marketing intelligence can also be gathered by linking and cross-analyzing existing database information. Many research organizations now have vast stores of information in their databases that cover customer behavior over time. These only suggest the vast array of possibilities that can literally submerge the manager and researcher in numbers. The real problem with this data explosion is not the quantity but the variability of the sources with respect to quality, availability, cost, timeliness, and relevance to the needs of the decision maker. In this chapter we begin the task of identifying and assessing the data that answer the decision maker’s specific questions. One of the hallmarks of a competent marketing researcher is familiarity with the basic sources pertaining to the market being studied, coupled with sensitivity to their respective strengths and weaknesses. This means that time will not be lost in an aimless search for nonexistent data, and neither time nor money will be wasted on a premature decision to go into the field to obtain the data. Figure 5-1 shows the principal sources available to a researcher who is responding to a research question or considering what data to collect in order to anticipate future information needs. This chapter deals with externally available secondary sources, for which the specification, collection, and recording of the data were done for another purpose by someone other than the user. We will take a particularly close look at census data, because it is so fundamental to understanding all aspects of a market economy. This becomes evident when census data are used to analyze market demand. We will also look at standardized data (Chapter 6), which are collected especially for a set of information users with a common need. Standardized data are both purpose-specific and expensive, but still much cheaper than having each user do it singly. Often, the immediate and unique needs of a decision maker require collecting original, or primary data, which is the topic of the rest of the book. SECONDARY DATA Secondary data are data that were collected by persons or agencies for purposes other than solving the problem at hand. They are one of the least expensive, quickest and easiest means of access to information. Hence, the first thing a researcher should do is search for secondary data available 102 USES Primary data sources OF SECONDARY DATA • Sales/Patronage results (outcomes) • Marketing activity (inputs) • Cost information • Distributor reports and feedback • Customer feedback Internal records Data sources Secondary data sources Electronic • Government • Trade associations • Periodicals • Newspapers • Books • Annual reports • Private studies Published data Printed External sources Standardized sources of marketing data • Store audits • Warehouse withdrawal services • Consumer purchase panels • Single –source data • Nielsen's television index • Starch scores • Arbitron panel • Multimedia services Internet • Blogs • Competitors • Web sites FIGURE 5-1 Sources of secondary data. on the topic. The amount of secondary data available is overwhelming, and researchers have to locate and utilize the data that are relevant to their research. Most search procedures follow a distinctive pattern, which begins with the most available and least costly sources. Figure 5-1 shows the various sources of secondary data. The order from top to bottom corresponds roughly to the order in which the alternative sources should be considered, or to the likelihood of that type of data being incorporated into the marketing information system. That is, almost all information systems initially are based on routinely collected internal data, and expand through the inclusion of data from published and standardized sources. USES OF SECONDARY DATA Secondary data can be used by researchers in many ways. In this section we look at the various ways in which it can be used. 1. Secondary data may actually provide enough information to resolve the problem being investigated. Suppose a marketing researcher needs to know the income of households in a particular market area; all he or she has to do is to look into the appropriate Census Bureau report. 103 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA 2. Secondary data can be a valuable source of new ideas that can be explored later through primary research. 3. Examining available secondary data is often a prerequisite to collecting primary data. It helps to define the problem and formulate hypotheses about its solution. It will almost always provide a better understanding of the problem, and its context frequently will suggest solutions not considered previously. 4. Secondary data is of use in the collection of primary data. Examining the questionnaires, methodology and techniques employed by other investigators in similar studies may be useful in planning the present one. It may also suggest better methods. 5. Secondary data also helps to define the population, select the sample in primary information collection, and define the parameters of primary research. 6. Secondary data can also serve as a reference base against which to compare the validity or accuracy of primary data. It may also be of value in establishing classifications or baselines that are compatible with past studies so that trends may be more readily analyzed. BENEFITS OF SECONDARY DATA The most significant benefits secondary data offer a researcher are savings in cost and time. Secondary data research often involves just spending a few days in the library or on the Internet extracting the data and reporting them. This should involve very little time, effort, and money compared to primary research. Even if the data are bought from a standardized data source, it will turn out to be cheaper than collecting primary data, because the cost of data collection is shared by all those using the data. Certain research projects may not be feasible for the firm; in such cases, recourse to secondary data will be the only solution. For example, if a firm needs some information on the entire population of the United States, it will be neither physically nor financially possible for the company to obtain it. Historical data are always secondary data. If a firm wants to obtain information on something that happened in the past, it cannot conduct primary research to obtain it. In some cases secondary data can be more accurate than primary data. For example, if a company wants information on the sales, profits, and so forth, of other companies, it can get more reliable and accurate information from government-released sources, trade associations, or general business sources than from the companies themselves. LIMITATIONS OF SECONDARY DATA 104 Despite the many potential benefits of secondary data, they also have a number of limitations. By definition, secondary data are data that were collected in the past for purposes other than the current research. Hence, problems of fit sometimes occurs between the data required for current research and the available data. The available data may have a different unit of measurement from what is required. For example, consumer income can be measured and reported at the individual, family, or household level. Even assuming that the data use the same unit of measurement, there still may be differences in the class definitions. For example, if the problem demands classification of income of individuals in increments of $10,000 ($0–$10,000, $10,001–$20,000, etc.), it does not help the researcher if he or she gets data where it is classified in increments of $7,500 ($0–$7,500, $7,501–$15,000, etc.). The researchers have no knowledge of how the data were collected, nor do they have any control over it. Therefore, they do not know anything about its accuracy or its bounds of error. They must make a number of assumptions before they can use it for actual analysis. It is also very difficult to evaluate the accuracy of the data already collected, because one can gauge its accuracy only by assessing such research characteristics as the methodology used or evidence of INTERNAL SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA TABLE 5-1 Benefits and Limitations of Secondary Data Benefits Limitations 1. Low cost. 1. Collected for some other purpose. 2. Less effort expended. 2. No control over data collection. 3. Less time taken. 3. May not be very accurate. 4. Sometimes more accurate than primary data. 4. May not be reported in the required form. 5. Some information can be obtained only from secondary data. 6. May not meet data requirements. 5. May be outdated. 7. A number of assumptions have to be made. conscientious work. In many cases the secondary data may not be sufficient to meet the data requirement for the research at hand. In these cases, researchers may have to use primary research. Secondary data may be outdated, and hence cannot be used in current research. Data about attendance at theaters five years ago will probably be irrelevant to determine the type of motion pictures to be produced next spring, because motion picture preferences continually change. Another problem frequently faced by researchers using secondary data is one of publication currency. The time from data collection to data publication is often long; hence, the data are outdated even when they are first available. An example is the government census, which takes three years to be published. The benefits and limitations of secondary data are summarized in Table 5-1. Finally, when using secondary data, it is important to go to the original source. By doing so you can determine who collected the data, why it was collected, how it was collected, and when it was collected. The answers to these questions are important since they help you better understand the quality of the data. Also, by knowing who collected the data, you have the ability to contact that source and find out more about the study. INTERNAL SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA Internal Records A company’s internal records, accounting and control systems, provide the most basic data on marketing inputs and the resulting outcomes. The principal virtues of these data are ready availability, reasonable accessibility on a continuing basis, and relevance to the organization’s situation. Data on inputs—marketing effort expended—can range from budgets and schedules of expenditures to salespeople’s call reports describing the number of calls per day, who was visited, problems and applications discussed, and the results of the visit. Extensive data on outcomes can be obtained from the billing records on shipments maintained in the accounting system. In many industries the resulting sales reports are the single most important items of data used by marketing managers, because they can be related (via exception reporting methods) to plans and budgets to determine whether performance is meeting expectations. Also, they may be compared with costs in order to assess profitability. New developments in information technology that tie customers more tightly to suppliers are improving the timeliness and depth of the sales information available to managers. For example, American Hospital Supply has supplied hospitals with computers so that hospital order entries go directly to the sales department, where they are stored in a computer and can be immediately accessed and analyzed for trends and transaction details. Salespeople at Wrangler Womenswear 105 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA can connect their portable computers to the corporate computer to send and retrieve messages, enter orders, and receive up-to-date sales information. Using Internal Data Effectively Many diagnostic studies potentially can be undertaken with various combinations of internal and external data, to address such questions as the following: ■ What is the effect of marketing inputs (number of sales calls or types of distribution channels) on outcomes such as profitability and unit sales within regions or sales territories? ■ Is our sales performance within key market segments or types of retailers improving or deteriorating? ■ Are current sales and marketing expenditures above or below the levels set in the annual budget and sales plan? Such insightful analyses, however, often are thwarted because of limitations in the accounting system and distortions in the data. The first problem is that accounting systems are designed to satisfy many different information needs. As a result, the reporting formats frequently are rigid and inappropriate for marketing decisions. Often the accounting data are too highly aggregated into summary results and are not available for key managerial units, such as geographic areas, customer types, or product types. Efforts to break down sales and profitability data by different units may involve special, time-consuming studies. It is also possible that production, sales, and profit figures are each measured in slightly different time frames, which are all at variance with external data such as bimonthly store audit data. A second problem is the quality of the data found in the internal records. On the input side, the reports of salespeople’s call activities may be exaggerated if they are being evaluated on this basis. Indeed, the well-known optimism of salespeople may unconsciously pervade all the data from this source. Accounting data are not exempt from such problems. The usual interpretation of a sales invoice is compromised if liberal return privileges are permitted or if the product is purchased at one location but delivered to or used in another. In general, whenever there is a long distribution channel, with several places where inventories can be accumulated, the data on orders received or invoices billed may not correspond to actual sales activity. Customer Feedback 106 Increasingly, companies are augmenting their internal records with systematic compilations of product returns, service records, and customer correspondence, in a manner that permits easy retrieval. Responding to the voice of the customer has become critical in order to maintain or increase market share in today’s competitive environment.1 Complaint letters are being used as sources of data on product quality and service problems. One reason is the insight they can provide into the problems of small groups with unusual requirements, reactions, or problems. For example, a premarket skin abrasion test of a new talc-based bath powder uncovered no problems, but the complaint letters that poured in shortly after the reformulated product was introduced revealed serious problems among a small group with sensitive skin. Complaint letters, however, present an incomplete and distorted picture. People who write such letters are not typical clients or customers. They are most likely to be highly educated, articulate, and fussy, with more than average amounts of free time. A letter of complaint is actually a rather infrequently used method of resolving dissatisfaction; instead, people are more likely to switch brands, shop in a different store, or complain to their friends. Manufacturers are almost completely cut off from knowledge of customer unhappiness, because most complaints are voiced to retailers and there is little systematic feedback from retailers to manufacturers. EXTERNAL SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA Customer Database Many companies have started to build customer databases on their own. A customer database is raw information on the customer that can be sorted and enhanced to produce useful information. Records of frequent customers and their transactions are maintained, and the companies use this data to find out what is common among its customers. This data can also be used to find out about customers’ product preferences, form of payment, and so on. Holiday Inn has created a customer database for its Priority Club members in order to track their activities and transactions with regard to the company.2 These customer databases are now being used extensively by marketing managers for formulating relationship marketing strategies and to determine the actual value of a customer (CLV). This is discussed in greater detail in the final chapter of the book. EXTERNAL SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA Published Data Sources Published data are by far the most popular source of marketing information. Not only are the data readily available, often they are sufficient to answer the research question. For example: ■ A marketing manager studying developments in the wine industry will use trade association data to learn how the total consumption of wine is broken down, by type of customers, geographic area, type of wine, brand name, and distribution client. These data are available annually and sometimes quarterly, so significant trends can be isolated readily. ■ A person starting a new specialty shop will use census data on family characteristics and income to support a likely location for the shop. ■ Local housing planners rely on census data dealing with the characteristics of housing and households in their locality to judge the need for new housing construction or housing rehabilitation. The prospective user of published data also is confronted with the problem of matching a specific need for information with a bewildering array of secondary data sources of variable and often indeterminate quality. What is needed first is a flexible search procedure that will ensure that no pertinent source is overlooked, and second, some general criteria for evaluating quality. These issues will be dealt with in the next two sections. Finding Published Sources. The major published sources are the various government publications (federal, state, provincial, and local), periodicals and journals, and publicly available reports from such private groups as foundations, publishers, trade associations, unions, and companies. Of all these sources, the most valuable data for the marketing researcher come from government census information and various registration requirements. The latter encompass births, deaths, marriages, income tax returns, unemployment records, export declarations, automobile registrations, property tax records, and so on. How should someone who is unfamiliar with a market or research topic proceed? In general, two basic rules are suggested to guide the search effort: (1) Start with the general and go to the specific, and (2) make use of all available expertise.3 The four main categories are authorities, general guides and indices, compilations, and directories. Authorities. Knowledge of pertinent sources—and of their limitations—comes from continued experience. Thus, the best starting point is someone else who has been doing research on the same subject. Trade associations and specialized trade publications are particularly useful, for 107 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA they often compile government data and collect additional information from their subscribers or members.4 If information about a specific geographic area is sought, the local chamber of commerce is a good place to begin. When the problem or topic is too large or ill defined, there is no substitute for a well-informed reference librarian. General Guides and Indices. Within the category of guides and indices there is a hierarchy of generality. At the top are the “guides to the guides,” such as Constance Winchell’s Guide to Reference Books (Chicago: American Library Association), The Bibliographic Index: A Cumulative Bibliography of Bibliographies (New York: H. W. Wilson Co.), The Cumulative Book Index (New York: H. W. Wilson Co.), and Guide to Special Issues and Indexes of Periodicals (New York: Special Libraries Association). At the next level of reference materials are guides to general business information sources. Several important bibliographies are the Encyclopedia of Business Information Sources, the Encyclopedia of Geographic Information Sources (Detroit: National Gale Research Co.), and the Statistical Reference Index (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Information Service). At a third level of generality, business periodical indices (e.g., Psychological Abstracts, Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association; The Wall Street Journal) contain references to a large number of journals, periodicals, and newspapers. For studies of international markets there is the International Bibliography of Marketing and Distribution (Munchen-Pullach: Verlag Dokumentation). Each country has its own reference guides to domestic periodicals. For example, in Canada there is the (Annual) Statistics Canada Catalogue and the Canadian Business Index, and in the United Kingdom there is the Annual Abstract of Statistics (London: H. M. Stationery Office). Most countries have reference guides to state and provincial jurisdictions. For example, Canadiana (Ottawa: National Library of Canada) includes a regular listing of provincial and municipal government publications. Marketing researchers often overlook valuable information on trends and conditions in specific markets, which is produced by firms such as Frost and Sullivan, Predicasts, Euromonitor, Economist Intelligence Unit, Stanford Research Institute, and A. D. Little. Although these reports may be expensive, they usually are much cheaper than primary research. These reports are indexed and described in: ■ Findex (Find/SVP) provides fully integrated research, advisory, and business intelligence services in a broad range of industries and disciplines. ■ Research Alert Direct, a new line of Internet-delivered alerting services. Reports deal with trends in consumer markets, attitudes, and lifestyle. Compilations. Compilations are intermediate sources, in that they facilitate access to the original sources. This is particularly desirable with statistical information. The standard work in this area is the Statistical Abstract of the United States (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Bureau of the Census), which contains selections from the various censuses as well as data collected by other agencies. For example, data on the number of industrial robots installed worldwide, by country, are compiled by the U.S. International Trade Commission. General-purpose marketing statistics are published in volumes such as Market Guide, Marketing Economics Guide (New York: Marketing Economics Institute), and the Rand McNally Commercial Atlas and Marketing Guide. Other valuable compilations are the Sales and Marketing Management annual statistical issues detailing the “Survey of Buying Power,” which includes industrial incomes, sales of six types of retail stores, market potential indices for states, countries, and metropolitan areas, and similar statistics for Canada. 108 Directories. Directories are useful for locating people or companies that could provide information. Trade directories supply a wealth of information on individual companies, including addresses, names of executives, product range, and brand names. Information on parent companies and/or subsidiaries often is provided. The Thomas Register of American Manufacturers (New York: Thomas Publishing Co.) lists such data on more than 150,000 manufacturing firms. EXTERNAL SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA There is now a Thomas Register for Europe, which is the first pan-European buying guide for manufacturers. Who Owns Whom (North American Edition) lists 6,500 parent companies and 100,000 domestic and foreign subsidiaries and associated companies. Some directories are narrowly focused, such as McKitrick’s Directory of Advertisers, or the Pulp and Paper Directory of Canada. A number of directories, such as World Who’s Who in Finance and Industry (Detroit: National Cole Research Co.) and Standard and Poor’s Register of Corporations, Directors and Executives (covering the United States and Canada), provide general biographical information on individuals. It is important to realize that only a few of the better-known sources have been described or mentioned here. Almost all of these guides, compilations, and directories are now available either online or on CD-ROM. The researcher is always best advised to seek the assistance of a qualified reference librarian whenever a new area or topic is being studied. Computer-Retrievable Databases Even with the array of printed bibliographies, directories, and indices, a search can be very timeconsuming. Recent advances in computer technology have resulted in more efficient methods of cataloging, storing, and retrieving published data. The growth in the number of databases available electronically through computers has been dramatic. Thousands of online databases are available to researchers and analysts working in almost every area of business, science, law, education, and the social sciences. These databases are easily accessible from personal computers and PDA devices. Increasingly, the interfaces developed for the user’s communication with the database system is designed to be user friendly. As a result, use of these electronic information sources has expanded rapidly to facilitate almost any search for information and is no longer limited to computer specialists. The large number of databases can be overwhelming. Databases can be classified by type of information contained or by the method of storage and retrieval. Figure 5-2 gives a comprehensive view of the classification. Computer-retrievable databases Based on the method of storage and retrieval of information Online databases Internet Direct from vendors CD-ROM databases Direct from producer FIGURE 5-2 Classifying computer-retrievable databases. Based on the type of information Source Reference Indirect through networks 109 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA Classification of Databases Based on Content of Information Reference Databases. Reference databases refer users to articles and news contained in other sources. They provide online indices and abstracts and are therefore referred to as bibliographic databases. Use of these databases is a quick and efficient method for researching a subject before obtaining a large amount of detailed information. Reference databases provide three distinct search features: 1. They are up-to-date summaries or references to a wide assortment of articles appearing in thousands of business magazines, trade journals, government reports, and newspapers throughout the world. 2. The information is accessed by using natural-language key words, rather than author or title. For example, the word “steel” will cause the computer to retrieve all abstracts that contain that word. 3. Key words can be combined in a search for articles that cover a number of related topics. Source Databases. Source databases provide numerical data, a complete text, or a combination of both. These include the many economic and financial databases and textual source databases that contain the complete texts of newspaper or journal articles. As opposed to the indices and summaries in the reference database, source databases provide complete textual or numerical information. They can be classified into (1) full-text information sources, (2) economic and financial statistical databases, and (3) online data and descriptive information on companies. Lexis-Nexis has introduced three new services. Tracker scans thousands of publications daily and delivers relevant news for only those topics designated by the customer. PubWatch allows users to scan a particular publication table of contents and select only the stories they want to read. AM News Brief provides news summary every day. Market research reports from more than a dozen brand names such as Data Monitor, Find/SVP, and Nielsen are also available on Nexis. In addition to the various major databases that provide financial information about companies and stocks, such as Standard and Poor’s Compustat Services and the Value Line Database, a number of online sources provide nonfinancial information about companies. Examples include the following: 110 Dun and Bradstreet Identifier: Over 57 million public and private companies, government agencies, and contractors, schools and universities with five or more employees, listing addresses, products, sales executives, corporate organizations, subsidiaries, industry information, and sales prospects. Disclosure: 12,500 U.S. public companies with at least $5 million in assets. Information includes description of the business, balance sheet, cash flow, income statement, financial ratios, president’s letter, and management discussion. American Business Directory: Over 10 million companies, mainly private. Also lists government offices and professionals, such as physicians and attorneys. Includes estimates of sales and market share. Standard and Poor’s Corporate Description Plus News: 12,000 public companies, with strategic and financial information plus news. Includes business description, incorporation history, earnings and finances, capitalization summary, and stocks and bond data. Invested Group MarkIntel: Comprises two databases, MarkIntel, which features reports authored by top-rated business publishing firms, and MarkIntel Master, which features exclusive online primary research from leading consulting and market research firms. Data-Star: Has several individual files with full-text market research reports. Also provides a Focus Market Research which includes Data Monitor, Euromonitor, ICC Keynote Report, Investext, Frost and Sullivan, European Pharmaceutical Market Research, and Freedonia Industry and Business Report. NTIS: The National Technical Information Service is the official source for governmentsponsored U.S. and worldwide scientific, technical, engineering, and business-related EXTERNAL SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA information. The NTIS collection includes business and management studies as well as international marketing reports. The information is available in CD-ROMs, computer tapes and diskettes, and online. Classification of Databases Based on Storage and Retrieval Methods. Another useful way of classifying databases is based on their method of storage and retrieval. They can be classified as online databases and CD-ROM databases. Online Databases. Online databases can be accessed in real time directly from the producers of the databases or through a vendor. In order to access online databases, all one needs is a personal computer and Internet access. Online databases drastically reduce the time required for a search and bring data right to the desk. Use of the Internet to obtain useful marketing research information is discussed in Chapter 7. CD-ROM Databases.5 Compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM) technology has revolutionized the technology of storing and retrieving information. Storage and retrieval is no longer restricted to large mainframe machines accessed by modems. Now, large amounts of information can be stored on compact disks and can be read by personal computers. A single CD-ROM can hold approximately 600 megabytes of information (as much as 1,800 floppy disks) or 250,000plus pages of text. The main advantage of CD-ROM over online access is that there are no online connect-time charges or long-distance telephone charges. The most powerful CD-ROM applications usually are sold by annual subscription or one-time fee for unlimited data access. Typically, the user receives a disk with updated information each week, month, or quarter. Almost all the reference and source databases that are available online are also available on CD-ROM. Accessing Computer Retrievable Databases Online databases are accessible both from their producers and increasingly from online information services. Most online services charge a fee for access to each database, a charge for the amount of information retrieved, and possibly supplemental charges, depending on the nature of the information or the contract arrangements. Some leading vendors of online databases are BRS (Bibliographic Retrieval Service), Knight-Ridder Information Service (formerly DIALOG), Dow Jones News/Retrieval Service, Inc., and Mead Data Central. Commercial online services such as America OnLine, Compuserve, and Prodigy also allow access to a number of online databases. If you are a frequent online user, the vendors offer a number of options. One way is to pay a monthly fee that entitles the user to a certain minimum usage and after that the user is charged per minute. The actual cost of each service varies from vendor to vendor. In order to access the information on a CD-ROM, it is necessary to have a CD-ROM drive connected to a personal computer (or access to one available in a public library). Advantages of Computer-Retrievable Methods The main advantage of computer-retrievable methods is the scope of the information available on databases. They now cover several thousand U.S. and worldwide information sources. A second advantage is the speed of information access and retrieval. Often, much of the information is available from a computer before it is available in published form, because of the time required for printing and mailing printed material. Third, commercially available search procedures provide considerable flexibility and efficiency in cross-referenced searching. For example, by using the EIS Industrial Plants database, it is possible to locate plants that simultaneously meet several criteria, such as geographic location, industry code, and market share. The future of computer-retrievable databases is exciting. Marketing Research in Action 5-1 gives an idea about the computer-retrieval databases of the future. 111 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 5-1 Virtual Reality Virtual reality (VR) is being used for applications ranging from three-dimensional animation for games to geophysical analysis. Virtual reality is a human–computer interface that does not include keyboard and mouse; rather, the interface tracks the movement of the user’s hands and head. The movements of the human body replace the clicking and typing. This not only helps to input data faster but also makes the visualization of results very convenient. VR tools include: ■ Visualization of all data types simultaneously in a common virtual world ■ Walk-through and fly-through capabilities ■ Multiattribute visualization ■ Interactive real-time region growing ■ Import and export of data The benefits of these tools in data analysis are many. They allow a new user to understand the data faster and thus be productive in a limited time frame. They also allow a user to easily understand complex relationships between data types and multiattribute visualization. Because interactive real-time region growing is possible, there is improved understanding of various attributes that can affect the data. The biggest advantage is improved interdisciplinary collaboration. By integrating different data types in a common virtual work and by using large immersive screens, a group of people can share the same experience and take an active part in the work in front of the screen. SOURCE: “Inside Reality,” http://oilit.com/2journal/2article/0007/0002.pdf, January 2003. Limitations of Computer-Retrievable Methods The main limitations of the reference databases are their reliance on the accuracy of the abstract author, the dependence on the journal and article selection policy of the database producer, and the idiosyncrasies of the search procedures of the different databases as well as the different database network vendors.6 Because the computer search is based on finding certain key words within the abstract, there is the possibility that some important information will be missed if an abstract is missing a key word. On the other hand, a lot of irrelevant data may be generated if certain key words used to limit a search are not cited in an abstract. For example, a manufacturer of minicomputers who is interested only in developments pertaining to minicomputers may not want to retrieve the entire database on computers. However, the abstract may contain the word “computer” regardless of size, and accessing information on minicomputers would also yield general computer information. Another limitation arises from the enormous amount of information now available online. It is often quite difficult to know which of the myriad sources has the correct information most readily accessible. Finally, the researcher using online database retrieval services must weigh the benefits of the research procedure, including timeliness, speed, and scope of information retrieval, against the costs of searching and accessing computer-retrievable databases. CENSUS DATA The demographic, economic, and social statistics contained in great detail in census data are key aspects of many marketing studies, for example: 112 Company Y must decide where to locate a new shopping mall and which kinds of stores to install. These decisions will require (1) census of population information about the populations with access to the proposed locations, (2) census of retail trade information about likely competitors and local wage levels, and CENSUS DATA (3) census of construction industries information about land development, contractors, and construction costs, available by state and metropolitan area. Understanding the Census All countries conduct a mandatory enumeration of important facts about their population and the economic and social environment. The major national and international census data collection agencies and some of their major publications are the U.S. Bureau of the Census (www. census.gov/), Statistics Canada, Statistical Office of the European Communities (Social Statistics, Industrial Statistics), Great Britain Central Statistical Office (Annual Abstract of Statistics), Japan Bureau of Statistics (Japan Statistical Yearbook), and the United Nations (Statistical Yearbook). The U.S. Bureau of the Census is illustrative of the scope of these undertakings. There are actually eight regular economic censuses, taken in the years ending with the numbers 2 and 7, and censuses of population and housing, which are taken every 10 years in the year ending with 0. The eight economic censuses compile detailed statistics on the structure and functioning of the major economic sectors: agriculture, construction industries, manufacturers, mineral industries, retail trade, service industries, transportation, and wholesale trade. Two major innovations were introduced in the 2000 Census. One is the availability of census data on CD-ROM. For a fee, the Census Bureau provides detailed summaries of the information it obtains on CD-ROM. The bureau also sells computer software that may be used for accessing and tabulating data on the CD-ROM. The second major innovation in the 1990 Census was the introduction of the Topologically Integrated Geographic Coding and Referencing (TIGER) system. The TIGER system gives the user the ability to generate a digitized street map of the entire 3.6-million-square-mile map of the United States. Specifically, with use of the TIGER system, one can literally chart every block in every county in the United States, both topographically and demographically. Five versions of the TIGER maps are available from the federal government. These include the prototype and precensus versions, both issued in 1989; the Initial Voting Codes version, released in October 1990, which blankets the United States by election districts; and the initial and final postcensus versions, the latter released in the early part of 1991. TIGER covers 3,286 counties in the United States, including addresses from the most populated urban areas to the most rural areas. One of TIGER’s most popular uses is to plot store locations. To use census data effectively, one must be able to locate quickly the specific information relevant to the research topic. The Index to Selected 2000 Census Reports and the Index to 2000 Census Summary Tapes list all the titles of tables available from the 2000 Census in either printed or tape form. Each table is described in terms of the variable and the level of aggregation used. For example, one table may be described as “education by sex,” with an indication of the level of aggregation available. Census data can be obtained at many levels of aggregation (see Figure 5-3). The smallest identifiable unit is the city block bounded by four streets and some other physical boundaries. City blocks then are combined arbitrarily to form block groups. The block groups then are collected together to make up census tracts, which are generally used to approximate neighborhoods. Census tracts have populations of above 4,000 and are defined by local communities. In urban areas, census tracts are combined to form metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), which are counties containing a central city with populations of at least 50,000. The general concept of a metropolitan area is one of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities that are determined to have a high degree of economic and social integration with that central nucleus. A metropolitan statistical area containing a single core with a population of at least 2.5 million may be subdivided to form smaller groupings of counties referred to as metropolitan divisions. While a metropolitan division is a subdivision of a larger metropolitan statistical area, it often functions as a distinct social, economic, and cultural area within the larger region.7 In June 1983 the federal government replaced the old standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) designation with new definitions. To maintain comparability, data for an earlier period are revised where possible, to reflect the MSA boundaries of 113 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA County C County A City Central City Village Block group County B County D Central City Census tract Elm St. Map 17th 16th Ave. Ave. Urbanized area Block le St . FIGURE 5-3 Geographic subdivisions of a MSA. the more recent period. In addition to the new standard MSAs, the largest defined areas are combined statistical areas (CSAs), which are metropolitan complexes containing separate component areas. [There are 367 MSAs and 68,000 census tracts and 211,267 block groups in the United States (including Puerto Rico).] Finally, the whole country is divided into four large regions (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). In addition, census data are available by civil divisions, such as states, counties, cities, and wards. The data from the latest census can be obtained from the Census Bureaus online database called Cendata. Cendata has an efficient measuring system that leads you to the data you need. NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)8 is the new standard code system to describe business establishments and industries, replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. It is the first industry classification system developed in accordance with a single principle or aggregation: the principle that producing units that use similar production processes should be grouped together in the classification. (See Table 5-2.) TABLE 5-2 North American Industrial Classification System NAICS level NAICS code Description 51 Information Sector Subsector Industry group Industry U.S. industry 114 515 5151 51511 515112 SOURCE: http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ Broadcasting (except Internet) Radio and TV Radio Broadcasting Radio Stations APPRAISING SECONDARY SOURCES The NAICS went into effect for reference year 1997 in Canada and the United States and for 1998 in Mexico. It was developed to provide a consistent framework for the collection, analysis, and dissemination of industrial statistics. Designed by the U.S., Mexican, and Canadian governments, NAICS has implications for economists, regulators, marketers, publishers, and anyone else who uses industry-based data. The most obvious use of the codes is in the 1997 Economic Census. Of the 1,170 NAICS codes, 358 are new industries, 390 are revised from SIC, and 422 can be compared to the older SIC codes. The system was developed by the United States, Canada, and Mexico to provide comparable statistics across the three countries. For the first time, government and business analysts will be able to directly compare industrial production statistics collected and published in the three North American Free Trade Agreement countries. NAICS also provides for increased comparability with the International Standard Industrial Classification System (ISIC, Revision 3) developed and maintained by the United Nations. NAICS industries are identified by a six-digit code, in contrast to the four-digit SIC code. The longer code accommodates the larger number of sectors and allows more flexibility in designating subsectors. The international NAICS agreement fixes only the first five digits of the code. The sixth digit, where used, identifies subdivisions of NAICS industries that accommodate user needs in individual countries. There are 20 broad sectors in the NAICS system, up from the 10 divisions of the NAICS system. APPRAISING SECONDARY SOURCES Users of secondary sources rapidly develop a healthy skepticism. Unfortunately there are many reasons why a forecast, historical statistic, or estimate may be found to be irrelevant or too inaccurate to be useful. Before such a judgment can be made, the researcher should have answers to the following questions: 1. Who? This question applies especially to the reputation of the collecting agency for honest and thorough work and the character of the sponsoring organization, which may influence the interpretation and reporting of the data. A related question is whether either organization has adequate resources to do a proper job. The problems do not end here, for the original data source (which provided the count, estimate, or other basis for the reported result) may have its own motives for biasing what it reports. A company that is pressed by a trade association, chamber of commerce, or government agency may be unwilling to report the true state of affairs or to take the time to collect the data, which may result in a biased guess. 2. Why? Data that are collected to further the interests of a particular group are especially suspect. Media buyers, for example, soon learn to be wary of studies of media. It is easy to choose unconsciously those methods, questions, analysis procedures, and so forth, that favor the interests of the study sponsor, and it is unlikely that unfavorable results will be exposed to the public. 3. How? It is impossible to appraise the quality of secondary data without knowledge of the methodology used to collect them. Therefore, one should immediately be suspicious of any source that does not describe the procedures used—including a copy of the questionnaire (if any), the nature and size of the sample, the response rate, the results of field validation efforts, and any other procedural decisions that could influence the results. The crucial question is whether any of these decisions could bias the results systematically. The need for caution is illustrated by a study to determine the best locations for new bank branches. The researchers initially used the projections of population in different parts of the city, which were provided by the city planning commission. These ostensibly valuable data had to be discarded when it was found that the commission had arrived at their projections by subdividing on maps the areas to be developed and multiplying each area by the density of families in the already-established areas of the city. When this methodology was discovered, 115 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA a proper projection was made by canvassing every real estate developer in the area regarding his or her future plans. The difference between the two projections was great, both in extent and timing of population increases. 4. What? Even if the available data are of acceptable quality, they may prove difficult to use or inadequate to the need. One irritating and prevalent problem is the classifications that are used. Wide variations in geographic, age, and income groupings across studies are common; for example, there is no accepted definition for the minimum number of stores in a supermarket chain. 5. When? There is nothing less interesting than last week’s newspaper. Sooner or later, the pace of change in the world in general, and in markets in particular, renders all secondary data equally obsolete and uninteresting except to the historian. The rate of obsolescence varies with the types of data, but in all cases the researcher should know when the data were collected. There may be a substantial lag between the time of collection and the publication of the results. 6. Consistency? With all the possible pitfalls in secondary data, and the difficulty in identifying them fully, the best defense is to find another source that can be used as a basis for comparison. Ideally, the two sources should use different methodologies to arrive at the same kind of data. In the likely event that there is some disagreement between the two sets of data, the process of reconciliation should first identify the respective biases in order to narrow the differences and determine which set is the most credible. APPLICATIONS OF SECONDARY DATA Secondary data are widely used for a number of marketing research problems. We have already discussed the various sources of secondary data and how to appraise them. In this section we will look at the various applications of secondary data. Table 5-3 gives a comprehensive framework of the types of sources to be used for different applications. Demand Estimation Most marketing resources, especially sales effort, service coverage, and communication activity, are allocated by region, segment, or territory. The key to efficient allocation is knowledge of the potential of each segment relative to other segments. Hence, demand estimation is a key determinant of the allocation of resources. Demand can be estimated from secondary data by the methods described in the paragraphs that follow. TABLE 5-3 Applications of Secondary Data 116 Demand Estimation Monitoring the Environment 1. Census data 1. Press releases 2. North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) 2. Legislation and laws 3. Trade associations data 4. Experts and authorities 4. Business and practitioner literature, such as magazines Segmentation and Targeting Developing a Business Intelligence System 1. PRIZM 1. Competitors’ annual reports 2. CLUSTER PLUS 2. Press releases 3. DMI 3. Blogs 4. NAICS 4. Competitors’ web pages 5. TIGER 3. Industry news APPLICATIONS OF SECONDARY DATA Direct Data Methods. Direct data methods are based on a desegregation of total industry data. The sales information may come from government sources, industry surveys, or trade associations. For example, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association reports shipments of refrigerators to retailers. Such data are useful for establishing relative market potentials only if the sales can be broken down by the organization’s sales or operating territories. Fortunately, industry refrigerator shipment data are available by trading area. This permits a direct comparison of the share of company sales and industry sales in each territory. Corollary Data Methods. One solution to the absence of industry sales data for each territory is to use another variable that is (1) available for each sales territory or region and (2) correlated highly with the sales of the product. For example, the territory demand for child-care services or baby food is correlated highly with the number of births in the area during the previous three years. Thus, the share of births in all geographic areas within the territory of interest would be a good proxy for the relative market potential within that territory. Companies use other methods that are peculiar to their product and sales environment to forecast sales. An example of such a method is given in Marketing Research in Action 5-2. In the example, Hansen Company, a manufacturer of quick connective couplings for air and fluid power transmission systems, uses a “sales-per-employee ratio” to forecast sales. Monitoring the Environment One of the most important uses of secondary data is to monitor the environment in which the company is functioning. Monitoring the environment is very crucial these days, because it is highly volatile and because attitudes, fashions, and fads change so often. To keep abreast of all the latest developments, a company has to be in constant touch with newspapers, general magazines, and periodicals. It has to know all the latest legislation and laws that may affect it. To know about the most recent trends in the industry, a firm has to look in the latest journals in the field. Thus, constant monitoring of the environment through surveillance of all the relevant indicators is very important to compete effectively in this dynamic environment. Segmentation and Targeting Market segmentation is common among businesses seeking to improve their marketing efforts. Effective segmentation demands that firms group their customers into relatively homogeneous groups. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and Dun’s Market Identifiers (DMI) are used by companies selling industrial goods to segment their markets. One of the latest developments with regard to segmentation for consumer products is geocoding, or a cluster demographic system, which identifies groups of consumers who share demographic and lifestyle characteristics. Several services now can link U.S. Census data on a Zip Code basis to lifestyles, to help marketing researchers identify the best areas in which to concentrate their efforts. Among the services are PRIZM (by Claritas) and CLUSTER PLUS (by Donnelly Marketing Information Services). About 1,000 consumer characteristics can be used to build clusters of homogeneous groups. Demographic variables include age, marital status, size of household, and income. Marketing Research in Action 5-3 illustrates how important demographic variables are in segmentation and targeting. Behavioral characteristics include amount of TV watched, amount of white bread consumed, types of magazines read, and so on. Geographic areas range from cities and counties to Zip Codes, census tracts, and block groups. The Potential Rating Index Zip Markets (PRIZM) system is based on evidence that people with similar cultural backgrounds and circumstances will gravitate naturally toward one another. Each of the 35,600 zip markets was first described according to 34 key demographic factors. These zip markets were originally clustered into 40 distinct groups which were each very homogeneous within themselves and very different from other groups. Subsequently 22 new consumer groups were added, bringing the total number of clusters to 62. The larger number of clusters reflect the 117 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 5-2 Relative Sales Potentials What can be done if a reliable estimate of total industry sales is unavailable, the customers cannot provide a good estimate of their purchases of the product, and the product is used in many industries, so there are no obvious corollary variables? This was the situation confronting the Hansen Company, a manufacturer of quick connective couplings for air and fluid power transmission systems, who distributed these products through a national network of 31 industrial distributors. To be able to evaluate and control their activity, the company badly needed data on the relative performance of their distributors. Its approach was based on the only reliable data that were available to it—sales of company products, by distributor. To utilize these data, the company made the assumption that it should be possible for Hansen distributors to attain the same sales-per-employee ratio in noncustomer establishments as in customer establishments. To establish the sales-per-employee ratio that would serve as a performance standard, the following steps were taken: 1. A random sample of 178 accounts was drawn from a census of all customer accounts buying $2,000 or more from the seven best distributors (where “best” was defined in terms of perceived effectiveness of management and utilization of an up-to-date data processing system). 2. Each account was assigned to a two-digit SIC group on the basis of its principal output or activity. 3. Data on the number of employees in each account were obtained primarily from industrial directories. 4. Sales-per-employee ratios were computed for each SIC group within the set of seven distributors. 5. Sales-per-employee ratios for each SIC group were multiplied by the total employment in all establishments in each of the 31 distributor territories. The employment data came from the current edition of the County Business Patterns publication of the U.S. Census. The output of these five steps was a table for each distributor, patterned after the following table, which gives the results for distributor A. 1997 Sales Potential—Distributor A Two-Digit SIC Group 1997 Hansen Sales per Employee 33 $1.56 4,113 34 2.53 14,792 37,424 35 3.28 15,907 52,175 36 1.93 32,677 63,067 37 1.71 2,024 3,461 38 3.48 409 1,423 69,922 $163,966 Total Total Employees Sales Potential $ 6,416 The resulting sales potential was compared with actual sales, which for distributor A amounted to $86,218 in 1997. That is, actual sales performance was 52.6 percent of sales potential. The sales performance for all distributors ranged from 125.0 percent to 15.4 percent, with an average of 50.3 percent. It is not surprising that the distributor with sales of only 15.4 percent of potential was subjected to a very careful review, which revealed that the salespeople did not really know how to sell the product to major accounts in the area. 118 increasing ethnic and economic complexity of the nation’s population.9 Claritas has also introduced workplace PRIZM, which accurately profiles a market’s working population and demonstrates the difference between the area’s daytime and nighttime demographics. Since every market is composed of Zip Code areas, it is possible to estimate the sales potential of a market by zip market clusters. As an example, a power tool manufacturer was able to create a PRIZM profile of product warranty cards mailed by recent buyers. This told the manufacturer which Zip Code areas should be chosen as target markets and helped to allocate media spending and sales force effort. SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 5-3 Targeted Marketing for African-Americans African-Americans comprise of about 13 percent of the population in the U.S. (around 39.2 million) and by 2050, this number is predicted to rise by 15 percent. With their spending on products and services being on the increasing trend, it provides enough incentive for companies to target this segment and come up with innovative ways to reach them. Marketers adopt various strategies to win over a particular segment of the market, some of which are given below: ■ Segmentation – It is critical for a company to divide its target audience into segments based on ethnicity, lifestyle and other demographics like education, household income etc. Each of these segments must be analyzed in-depth and the company must look for inventive ways to reach out to them. A good example of this is the case of Nissan. Research done by the company revealed that their African-American consumers preferred to be ‘included’ rather than ‘targeted’. This led Nissan to embark on a series of ‘integrated marketing’ for their Altima brand which did not directly target the African-American population but, subtly included them in the target audience. Through this initiative, Nissan saw a 14 percent increase in their sales of Altima to African-American audience and a 29 percent overall increase in African-American customer base. ■ Community-based events – Another tested method of gaining attention among segments in the market is hosting community based events such as exhibitions etc. New York-based Merrill Lynch & Company Inc has conducted many of these events and benefited greatly from them. In October 2005, the firm sponsored a cultural exhibition: The Art of Architecture in Africa, and invited more than 300 prospective clients who were attended to by over 25 financial advisors from Merrill Lynch. There has been increasing focus on the African-American consumer segment. Some of the successful industries in this initiative are automotive manufacturers, financial services, wireless providers, consumer packaged goods and insurance companies. The key to succeed in this multicultural marketing campaign lies in a companywide commitment to ensure success, cultural sensitivity and the ability to capture their attention and loyalty. SOURCE: Deborah L. Vence, “Mix it up,” Marketing News, October 15, 2006. Developing a Business Intelligence System A business intelligence system is basically a system that contains data on the environment and the competitors. It forms an integral part of the marketing decision support system. Both primary and secondary data form a part of the business intelligence system. As has already been said, data on the environment can be obtained from a variety of sources. Data on competitors can be obtained from their annual reports, press releases, patents, and so on. SOURCES OF SECONDARY DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH 10 Secondary data are a key source of information for conducting international marketing research. This is in part due to their ready availability, the high cost of collecting primary data versus the relatively low cost of secondary data, and the usefulness of secondary data in assessing whether specific problems need to be investigated, and if so, how. Further, secondary data sources are particularly valuable in assessing opportunities in countries with which management has little familiarity, and in product markets at an early stage of market development. A wide variety of secondary data sources are available for international marketing research. These range from sources that provide general economic, social, and demographic data for almost all countries in the world, to sources that focus on specific industries worldwide. A host of sources of macroeconomic data are to be found, ranging widely in the number of countries or regions covered. Many of these are based on or derived from United Nations and 119 CHAPTER 5 SECONDARY SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA World Bank data. The Business International, Euromonitor, and Worldcasts divisions of Predicasts also publish annual information on macroeconomic variables. The preceding macroeconomic data sources, with the exception of Euromonitor, relate to the general business environment. They therefore do not provide much indication as to market potential for specific industries. A number of sources of industry-specific data are available. They are United Nations Yearbooks, publications of the U.S. Department of Commerce, The Economist, and the Worldcasts. Numerous other sources specific to individual countries or product markets are also to be found. The U.S. Department of Commerce, for example, publishes International Marketing Handbook, which provides profiles and special information about doing business in various countries. Information regarding regulations, customs, distribution channels, transportation, advertising and marketing research, credit, taxation, guidance for business travelers abroad, and so forth, is compiled in their “Overseas Business Reports.” Governments or other bodies frequently publish national yearbooks or statistical data books. Various private sources also publish regional and country handbooks. The World of Information, for example, publishes the African Guide, the Middle East Review, and so on. PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY DATA IN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Two major problems are associated with secondary data in international marketing research: the accuracy of the data and the comparability of data obtained from different countries. Data Accuracy Different sources often report different values for the same macroeconomic factor, such as gross national product, per-capita income, or the number of television sets in use. This casts some doubt on the accuracy of the data. This may be due to different definitions followed for each of those statistics in different countries. The accuracy of data also varies from one country to another. Data from highly industrialized nations are likely to have a higher level of accuracy than data from developing countries, because of the difference in the sophistication of the procedures adopted. The level of literacy in a country also plays a role in the accuracy of the macroeconomic data collected in that country. Comparability of Data Business statistics and income data vary from country to country because different countries have different tax structures and different levels of taxation. Hence, it may not be useful to compare these statistics across countries. Population censuses may not only be inaccurate, they also may vary in frequency and the year in which they are collected. Although in the United States they are collected once every 10 years, in Bolivia there was a 25-year gap between two censuses. So most population figures are based on estimates of growth that may not be accurate and comparable. Measurement units are not necessarily equivalent from country to country. For example, in Germany the expense incurred on buying a television would be classified as entertainment expense, whereas in the United States it would be classified as furniture expense. APPLICATIONS OF SECONDARY DATA IN INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH 120 Secondary data are particularly useful in evaluating country or market environments, whether in making initial market-entry decisions or in attempting to assess future trends and developments. They thus form an integral form of the international marketing research SUMMARY process. More specifically, three major uses of secondary data are in: 1. Selecting countries or markets that merit in-depth investigation 2. Making an initial estimate of demand potential in a given country or a set of countries 3. Monitoring environmental changes Secondary data can be used systematically to screen market potential, risks, and likely costs of operating in different countries throughout the world. Two types of generalized procedures are used. The first procedure classifies countries on two dimensions: the degree of demographic and economic mobility, and the country’s domestic stability and cohesion. The second procedure calculates multiple factor indices for different countries. For example, Business International publishes information each year on three indices showing (1) market growth, (2) market intensity, and (3) market size, for countries in Western and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Asia, Africa, and Australia. Customized models, which are geared to specific company objectives and industry characteristics, can also be developed using secondary data. Once the appropriate countries and markets to be investigated in depth have been determined, the next step is to make an explicit evaluation of demand in those countries or markets.11 This is important when considering initial market entry, because of the high costs and uncertainty associated with entering new markets. Management has to make an initial estimate of demand potential, and also project future market trends. Four types of data analyses are unique to demand estimation in an international context. The first and the most simplistic is lead–lag analysis. This uses time-series (yearly) data from a country to project sales in other countries. A second procedure is the use of surrogate indicators. This is similar to the use of general macroindicators, but develops the macroindicators relative to a specific industry or product market. An example of a surrogate indicator is the number of childbirths in the country as an indicator of the demand potential for diapers. A third technique, which relies on the use of cross-sectional data (data from different countries), is analogous to the use of barometric procedures in domestic sales forecasting. One assumes that if there is a direct relationship between the consumption of a product, service, or commodity and an indicator in one country, the same relationship will hold in other countries to estimate the demand. The fourth and most complex forecasting model is the econometric forecasting model. This model uses crosssectional and time-series data on factors underlying sales for a given product market for a number of countries to estimate certain parameters. Later, these models can be used to project the market demand. A third use of secondary data in an international context is to monitor environmental changes. Monitoring environmental changes requires surveillance of a number of key indicators. These should be carefully selected and tailored to the specific product or range of products with which management is concerned. Two types of indicators are required. The first monitors the general health and growth of a country and its economy and society; the second, those of a specific industry or product market. A variety of procedures can be used to analyze the impact of environmental factors on world trends or industrial countries, and on product markets, as well as the implications for market growth and appropriate marketing strategies. These range from simple trend projections or tracking studies and the use of leading indicators to the more complex scenario evaluation studies. Summary The theme of this chapter is the wealth of data available to marketing researchers. Many management problems can be resolved by recourse to the firm’s internal records or to secondary sources such as government statistics, trade association reports, periodicals, books, and private studies. With the growing power of computers, these data are increasingly easy to access in databases. The low cost and convenience of these database sources leave no excuse for not starting a marketing research study with a thorough scan of what is 121 already available. Invariably, the researcher will be surprised at the extent of what is already available with very little effort. Even if it is not entirely suitable, the secondary data sources can provide useful pointers on how to design a good research study. Questions and Problems 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. You are opening a new retail store that will sell personal computers and software. What secondary data are available in your area to help you decide where to locate the store? Would the same data be relevant to someone opening a convenience copying center? A large chain of building supply yards was aiming to grow at a rate of three new yards per year. From past experience, this meant carefully reviewing as many as 20 or 30 possible locations. You have been assigned the task of making this process more systematic. The first step is to specify the types of secondary information that should be available for the market area of each location. The second step is to identify the possible sources of this information and appraise their usefulness. From studies of the patrons of the present yards, you know that 60 percent of the dollar volume is accounted for by building contractors and tradesmen. The rest of the volume is sold to farmers, householders, and hobbyists. However, the sales to do-it-yourselfers have been noticeably increasing. About 75 percent of the sales were lumber and building materials, although appliances, garden supplies, and home entertainment systems are expected to grow in importance. For each of these products, which industry associations would you contact for secondary data? (a) Foreign convenience dinners, (b) numerically controlled machine tools, (c) irrigation pipe, (d) imported wine, (e) compact disk players, and (f) children’s shoes. Obtain data on beer consumption in your state or province for the latest available year. Calculate the per-capita consumption for this area and compare it to that for the country as a whole. What accounts for the difference? Educational Edge, a small company with limited resources, is interested in segmenting potential markets for its erasable transparencies. 6. 7. a. Which type of data would be best suited to obtain the required information? b. What are the possible sources of information to aid in the segmentation decision? c. What are the benefits and limitations of using secondary data for this purpose? Howard Enterprises, a small family-owned manufacturer of unique lamps, has begun to receive unsolicited inquiries about its product from foreign countries. The company has been operating exclusively in the domestic environment, but these inquiries have become numerous enough to suggest that a market for these specialty lamps may exist abroad. J. P. Howard, the company head, decided to contact Peter Franks, an old college friend of his, who is now the head of marketing research for a multinational company, to ask for his advice on how to proceed in evaluating foreign country markets. Mr. Franks recommends that Howard Enterprises should select countries that merit in-depth investigation and proceed to make an initial estimate of the demand potential in these countries. a. Considering the limited resources that are available to Mr. Howard’s company, explain how secondary data can be used to help Mr. Howard follow his friend’s recommendation. b. What are the possible limitations of secondary data of which Mr. Howard must be aware when conducting the marketing research? From secondary data sources, obtain sales for an entire industry and the sales of the major firms in that industry for any year. Compute the market shares of each major firm. Using another source, obtain information on the market shares of these same firms. Are there differences? If so, why? End Notes 1. Ellen R. Kidd, “Establishing Quality Focus in a Multi-Cultural Organization,” presented at the Third Congress on Competitive Strategies. 2. Paula A. Francese and Leo M. Renaghan, “Finding the Customer,” American Demographics, January 1991, pp. 48–51. 3. More extensive discussion of data sources and how to locate them can be found in Lorna Daniels, 122 Business Information Sources, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1985; Lorna Daniels, Notes on Sources of External Marketing Data, in B. Shapiro, R. Dolan, and J. Quelch (eds.), Marketing Management Vol. ii, Homewood, IL: Richard D. Irwin, 1985, Appendix; Barbara E. Brown, Canadian Business and Economics: A Guide to Sources of Information, Ottawa: Canadian Library Association, ge / aak w om/ c o l er .c le w. wi l ey 1984; and Leonard M. Fuld, Competitor Intelligence, New York: John Wiley, 1985. 4. A comprehensive listing of these associations can be found in the Encyclopedia of Associations, Detroit: National Gale Research Co., 1984; and in Leonard M. Fuld, Competitor Intelligence, New York: John Wiley, 1985. 5. For more information, see Jennifer Langlois, CDROM 1992: An Annotated Bibliography of Resources, Westport, CT: Meckler, 1992. 6. An interesting compilation of reasons why a database search might not meet with success is provided in Jeff Pemberton, “Faults and Failures—25 Ways CASE 5-1 Barkley Foods w Joyce Stevenson, the manager of marketing research for Barkley Foods, had just left an emergency meeting with the firm’s president. An opportunity to buy an established line of gourmet (high-quality/high-priced) frozen dinners had arisen. Because there were other interested buyers, a decision had to be made within three or four weeks. This decision depended on judgments about the future prospects of the gourmet frozen dinner market and whether Barkley could achieve a competitive advantage. The marketing research group was asked to provide as much useful information as possible within a 10-day period. Although uncomfortable with the time pressure involved, Joyce was pleased that marketing had finally been asked to participate in the analysis of acquisition prospects. She had pressed for such participation and now she had to deliver. Because of prior work on frozen fruit juices, Joyce had some knowledge of the gourmet frozen market. It was pioneered by Stouffer, who introduced the Lean Cuisine line of entrees in 1981. Since then, other firms have entered the industry with complete gourmet dinners (including Swanson’s Le Menu and Armour’s Dinner Classics). The distinction between entrees, dinners, and the three main types of food offered— conventional, ethnic (i.e., Benihana Restaurant Classics), or low-calorie (i.e., Weight Watchers or Light & Elegant)—define relevant submarkets. Joyce hypothesized that the gourmet frozen food buyer differs from the buyer of conventional “TV dinners” in several respects. The gourmet frozen food buyers are generally young, upper-socioeconomic-group people who probably have microwaves, are more health conscious, and are likely to be working women and others who want sophisticated cuisine but lack the time to prepare it. Barkley Foods was a diversified food company with sales of $2.3 billion. Over 80 percent of its sales came from branded packaged food products sold nationally through grocery stores. Its largest product 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. That Online Searching Can Let You Down,” Online, September 1983. http://proximityone.com/metros.htm http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/ Christina Del Valle, “They Know Where You Live— And How You Buy,” Business Week, February 7, 1994. For a more detailed discussion, see Susan P. Douglas and C. Samuel Craig, International Marketing Research, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1983. V. Kumar, A. Stam, and E. A. Joachimsthaler, “An Interactive Multicriteria Approach to Identifying Potential Foreign Markets,” Journal of International Marketing, 2(1), 1994, pp. 29–52. areas were canned tomato products, frozen orange juice, cake mixes, and yogurt. Barkley was known to have strengths in operations (product preparation), distribution (obtaining distribution and managing the shelves), and advertising. Their brands typically held a solid second-place position in the supermarket. There was no effort at umbrella brand identification, so each product area was carried by its own brand. Joyce Stevenson had previously been in strategic planning, and reviewed the type of information and analysis that would be required to support a strategic decision like this one. She wrote down the following four sets of questions to guide the thinking of the research group: 1. Market analysis ■ What are the size, current growth rate, and projected growth rate of the industry and its relevant subsets (such as ethnic dinners) for the next five and ten years? ■ What are the important industry trends? ■ What are the emerging production technologies? ■ What are the distribution trends? ■ What are current and future success factors (a competitive skill or asset needed to compete successfully)? 2. Environmental analysis ■ What demographic, cultural, economic, or governmental trends or events could create strategic threats or opportunities? ■ What major environmental scenarios (plausible stories about the future) can be conceived? 3. Customer analysis ■ What are the major segments? ■ What are their motivations and unmet needs? 4. Competitor analysis ■ Who are the existing and potential competitors? ■ What are their current or forecasted levels of sales, market shares, and profits? ■ What are their strengths and weaknesses? ■ What strategies are they following, and how are they differentiating themselves in the market? 123 Questions for Discussion 1. What secondary data sources would be useful? What types of questions might be answered by each? Identify one piece of information from the library that would be helpful and relevant. How did you locate it? om/ c o l ge / aak w .c le w. wi l ey 2. CASE 5-2 Dell in Latin America? er w Dell, which thrived while other PC makers stumbled in 1998, reported a 53 percent jump in profit and a 50 percent jump in revenue for its fiscal second quarter, which ended in July 1998. Unlike most of its rivals, Dell deals directly with customers and builds PCs only after receiving an order. However, all is not well for Dell. While Dell continues to blow away the competition and Wall Street with enormous increases in personalcomputer sales, it is continually scrambling to bring in and train enough people to keep up with its orders. The company’s employment had grown 56 percent in 1997, to 20,800, and within a span of three months Dell added 225 people a week—about the same it added every six weeks in 1996. To manage this expansion Dell has aggressively recruited experienced outsiders and tried to standardize training of new employees. It has also created a culture where 3. What other mechanisms would you use to gather information? managers are rewarded for seeing their divisions split into smaller units and their responsibilities cut back. Incidentally, Dell Computer Corp. is expected to announce a major foray into Brazil, in a bid to boost its share of Latin America’s fast-growing personalcomputer market. Foreign companies with local production plants dominate Latin America’s estimated $6.5 billion personal-computer market. Compaq Computer Corp., International Business Machines Corp., Acer Inc., and Hewlett-Packard Co. together accounted for 42 percent of desktop and notebook sales in 1997, according to IDC Latin America, a market-research firm. Dell ranked ninth with 1.2 percent of the market. At the company’s annual meeting in July 1998, Vice Chairman Morton Topfer said Dell aimed to open a plant in Latin America in 1999 and noted that Latin America is key to its international expansion. The company already operates regional production plants in Malaysia, Ireland, the United States, and China. Questions for Discussion 1. 2. 3. What are the issues concerning the Latin American market that Dell should address before it enters into Brazil? What kind of information is needed to address the issues identified in question 1? What are the possible sources of the required information? What are your recommendations to Dell regarding the steps for expanding its operations in Latin America? CASE 5-3 Eddie Bauer: Strategize with Secondary Marketing Data Eddie Bauer, Inc., is a leading international retail brand, offering casual lifestyle products for adults through its retailing concepts: Eddie Bauer and Eddie Bauer Home. Eddie Bauer products are for men and women who seek versatile, classically styled, high-quality merchandise 124 Source: This case was prepared by V. Kumar and Rajkumar Venkatesan for the purpose of classroom discussion from “Dell to Build Plant to Boost Latin Presence,” Wall Street Journal, August 18, 1998, and “Dell Scrambles to Find Enough Workers to Fuel Growth,” Wall Street Journal, August 20, 1998. designed to meet a wide range of their apparel and home-furnishing needs. Since 1920, the company has evolved from a single store in Seattle to a multichannel, international company with more than 590 stores worldwide. In addition, Eddie Bauer has 110 million catalogs in circulation and an online website (www.eddiebauer.com). The company operates stores in the United States and Canada, and has joint venture partnerships in Germany and Japan. Eddie Bauer has long considered the location of stores as the key element for maximizing sales. However, the problem has been how to choose these prime locations. Until recently, the company relied on basic census information, such as income and number of households, when choosing locations for new stores. But recent demographic changes in the United States and Canada have made this task more complex. One of the main objectives of Eddie Bauer’s marketing team was to answer the following questions: ■ Who are our best prospects? What are their demographics: age, income, occupation, education, household size, and more? ■ What are they like? How would target customers like to spend their leisure time, what kinds of products do they purchase, what types of vehicles are they likely to drive, and what is their interest in and use of the latest technologies. ■ Where can I find them? What are the right places to look—rural, urban, inner-city, small-town, or suburban communities? The next step is to figure out a way to get down to the blocks they live on. ■ How can I reach them? How can customers be attracted into Eddie Bauer stores and what are their media habits: television, radio, newspapers, magazines, or the Internet? So Eddie Bauer purchased Clarita’s online geocoding and GIS mapping software, along with databases to provide precise knowledge for identifying ideal location. The first step was to identify potential areas of high retail expenditures. Information (household growth rate, number of housing units) about these locations along with consumer information (age, income level, household size, and education level) were collected using Clarita’s demographics. Thus, for each proposed store location, Eddie Bauer’s marketing team gathered detailed consumer information on the market and potential new locations relative to existing stores and competitors. Moreover, Eddie Bauer’s marketing team started to use Clarita’s Potential Rating Index Zip Markets (PRIZM) geocoding system to evaluate existing sites and current customers. For example, they not only profiled the shoppers at its five best-performing retail outlets but also studied the branches that were not doing very well. The profile of the shoppers would help the marketing team identify the shared characteristics of customers who frequent Eddie Bauer Stores. This knowledge would be very helpful not only in deciding on new site locations, interior designs, and merchandising mix but also in developing the store concept. This detailed consumer information prepares Eddie Bauer to compete more efficiently in the ever-changing retail industry. Questions for Discussion 1. 2. 3. What demographic and geographic information should Eddie Bauer collect to select store locations? What kind of information regarding the competitive environment of the market in which Eddie Bauer operates is needed when choosing store locations? Suggest methods by which Eddie Bauer can conduct marketing research to identify the shared characteristics of those customers who frequent Eddie Bauer stores versus the characteristics of customers who frequent the stores of competitors at various locations. 4. Look at Clarita’s website (http://www.nielsen.com/ us/en.html) and try to find answers to the four questions of Eddie Bauer’s marketing team: Who are our best prospects? What are they like? Where can I find them? How can I reach them? Source: This case was prepared by the authors with the inputs from Eddie Bauer, Inc. (www.eddiebauer.com) and Claritas, Inc. (www.claritas.com). 125 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA Learning Objectives ■ Introduce the various sources of standardized sources of marketing data available. ■ Provide a description of each of the well-known sources of standardized marketing data. ■ Discuss the sources and applications of scanner data. ■ Develop a framework for the various applications of standardized data sources. Marketing intelligence is a form of business intelligence whereby data and information are analyzed and transformed for use in strategic planning and problem solving. The more specific and topical the need for information, the smaller is the likelihood that relevant secondary data will be found. The researcher then has the choice of designing a special study or taking advantage of standardized data collection and analysis procedures. The latter alternative generally exists whenever several information users have common information needs and when the cost of satisfying an individual user’s need is prohibitive. These conditions are most often encountered with consumer goods sold to large, diffuse markets and repurchased at frequent intervals. A further condition—especially important for data sources such as store audits and continuous consumer panels—is that the information needs are recurrent and can be anticipated. Thus, the data supplier can enter into long-term relationships with clients and be sure of covering the heavy fixed costs. The clients get continuity of data series, which is essential for monitoring and evaluation purposes. This chapter describes and evaluates the major syndicated sources of marketing data, including store audits, warehouse withdrawal services, consumer purchase panels, and scanner-based systems. Each source has a distinctive profile of strengths and weaknesses that reflects differences in orientation, types of measures, and their location in the distribution channel. To get a full picture of the market situation of a product category or brand, it is usually necessary to use several sources in combination. Unfortunately, when this is done the result is more often confusion rather than clarity of insight, because of information overload. This is such a prevalent problem that the last section of this chapter is devoted to recently developed decision support systems that help reduce the confusion. The use of standardized data sources has been revolutionized by single-source data from scanner systems. This means that all data on product purchases and causal factors, such as media exposure, promotion influence, and consumer characteristics, come from the same households. These data are being made possible through advances in information technology. Single-source data has not fully displaced other standardized sources, but it is used in conjunction with them to generate important new insights. To understand the basic motivation for using standardized sources, consider the problems of a manufacturer of cold remedies who has to rely on factory shipment data for sales information. Management is especially interested in the reaction to a new convenience package that was introduced at the beginning of the cold season in December. By the end of January, the following information had been received from the accounting department: 126 CONSUMER PURCHASE PANELS Week Ending December 28 January 4 January 11 January 18 January 25 Factory Shipments 12,700 cases 19,800 cases 18,200 cases 14,100 cases 11,050 cases All the usual problems of interpreting time-series data are compounded in this example by the ambiguities in the data. For example, while the cases were shipped from the factory, there is no information concerning where or when they were sold. The peak in factory shipments during the week ending January 4 represents a substantial amount of “pipeline filling,” in anticipation of sales to come in the future during the cold season, and an unknown amount of product sold for pipeline filling still remains on the shelves. Also unknown is competitive performance during this period: Did the new package gain sales at the expense of competition, or was there a loss of market share? Shipment data provide no diagnostic information, so these questions remain: How many retail stores used the special displays of the new product? Were competitors making similar or more effective offers? Was there a carryover of last year’s stock in the old package? Without answers to these questions, the manager is in no position either to correct problems or continue the strong points of the campaign. RETAIL STORE AUDITS Every two months a team of auditors from a research firm visits a sample of stores to count the inventory on hand and record deliveries to the store since the last visit. Sales during the twomonth period, for any desired classification of product category (including brands, sizes, package types, flavors, etc.), are arrived at by computing Beginning inventory ⫹ deliveries ⫺ ending inventory ⫽ sales for the period These retail store audit results then are projected—to arrive at nationwide and regional estimates of total sales, inventories, and so forth—and reported to the client between six and eight weeks after the end of the period. During each store visit, the auditor also may collect such observable information as shelf prices, display space, the presence of special displays, and in-store promotion activities. Nielsen Retail Index A.C. Nielsen Co. and Audits and Surveys provide auditing services. Nielsen’s auditing services cover four major reporting groups: 1. Grocery products 2. Drugs 3. Other merchandise 4. Alcoholic beverages Audits and Surveys deals with products, regardless of the type of retail outlet carrying the product. The data provided by these two companies are incredibly rich. Table 6-1 summarizes the information that is provided in the bimonthly report of Nielsen. A disadvantage of the audit data is that it cannot be linked to household characteristics. For additional information, visit the A.C. Nielsen website at http://ca.nielsen.com/content/nielsen/en_ca/insights/reports.html. CONSUMER PURCHASE PANELS From store audits and warehouse withdrawal services, we can learn how much product is moving through the distribution channel. As this information is one step removed from the actual purchase transaction, we still don’t know who bought, how frequently they bought, or whether 127 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA TABLE 6-1 Contents of a Nielsen Store Audit Report Each a. b. c. d. of the following variables can be subdivided as follows: Sales districts Size of county (A, B, C, or D) Type of store (for example, chain versus large-medium-small independents) Thirty-two largest metropolitan markets 1. Sales (volume, trend, and share) on the basis of retail dollars and units, pounds or equivalent cases for total market, and major brands by sizes, flavors, types, etc., as appropriate to the category 2. Distribution a. Percentage of all stores, and all commodity sales, carrying each brand, and size b. Out-of-stock conditions c. Retail inventories d. Stock cover (the length of time the stocks will last, assuming current rates of sales) e. Source of delivery (wholesaler, rack jobbers, manufacturer, chain warehouse, or interstore transfers) 3. Selling prices and volume sold at each price or deal 4. Retailer support in terms of shelf facings, special displays, in-store advertising, and newspaper advertising 5. Media advertising for total market and major brands 6. Special analyses (illustrative) a. Analyses of combinations of brands stocked to determine the extent to which individual brands compete together b. Cumulative distribution of new products the seeming stability of market shares reflects stable purchasing patterns or a great deal of switching back and forth between brands and stores in response to short-term promotional efforts. To answer these questions, we need detailed records of purchasing activity by the same people over an extended period of time. Here are two methods for collecting this data: 1. In the home audit approach the panel member agrees to permit an auditor to check the household stocks of certain product categories at regular intervals. A secondary condition is that the panel member save all used cartons, wrappers, and so on, so the auditor can record them. 2. In the mail diary method the panel member records the details of each purchase in certain categories and returns the completed diary by mail at regular intervals (biweekly or monthly). The detail that can be collected is illustrated for 2 of the 88 clothing, food, and personal-care products recorded by members of the American Shoppers Panel (see Figure 6-1). 128 Both types of panels are used extensively in Europe, whereas in the United States and Canada the mail diary method is dominant. When comparisons have been possible, the two methods have produced equally accurate market share and trend data.1 National Family Opinion (NFO) and the National Purchase Diary Panel (NPD) both operate mail diary panels. Each month MRCA delivers a report for the preceding month, showing total consumer purchases of each brand in the category, plus sales overall, which can be converted into volume and dollar market shares. Each quarter, an analysis of purchases by regions and by type of retail outlet is provided. The IPSOS Home Testing Institute (HTI) Consumer Panel gives you a direct link to 350,000 households (almost a million individuals) who have agreed to participate in IPSOS studies conducted by mail, phone, or the Internet. Within the panel, a core sample of 250,000 households is geographically and demographically balanced to provide an accurate picture of today’s marketplace. NOTE: Extra space page 1. Free Gifts and Samples, inside front cover. SEX AGE AGE AGE SEX No. 6 AGE User No. 5 SEX User No. 4 SEX User No. 3 SEX User No. 2 AGE SEX Sex AGE THINS OTHER PLATINUM TUNGSTEN CHROMIUM BLUE SUPER BLUE STAINLESS STEEL OTHER BONDED TWIN (2) BLADED CARTRIDGE INJECTOR CONTINUOUS EDGE (BAND) SINGLE EDGE Age AGE AND SEX OF USERS User Check (√) one LOW CALORIE CAN WRITE IN FLAVOR Such as: Orange, Chocolate, Cola, Lemon, Cherry, etc. COPY FROM LABEL REGULAR OTHER CASE Other– Describe PLASTIC BOTTLE ¢ Total ¢ off WRITE IN AS MANY AS APPLY TO THE ITEM, WRITE IN AGE, SEX OF User PURCHASER No. 1 Check (√) one TYPE OF CONTAINER Glass bottle Check (√) one TYPE OF PACK WEIGHT (SIZE) SHOWN ON LABEL Write in the amount of weight per item or container and tell us the kind of weight, such as pounds, and or ounces, pints, quarts, etc. THROW AWAY $ DESCRIBE SPECIAL PRICE OR OFFER CHECK (√) ONE Kind of Blade RETURN Write in all of the words which together describe the complete brand name. Write in number of packages or other containers (or company if purchased from door-to-door or home delivery salesperson) 8 PACK CARBONATED SOFT DRINKS NAME OF STORE Write in: Number of blades or cartridges per package or number of shaving edges per continuous band CARBONATED SOFT DRINKS DIARY TIPS: First of all, enter in the diary only those purchases which are brought home from the store. This includes items which may later be taken on a picnic or to the beach as well as items which are consumed at home. • Do not enter items which are consumed at the place of purchase. Usually, these include vending machine purchases, restaurants, refreshment stands, ball games, etc. • When you make a purchase entry, fill in the answers under every column all the way across the page. • Be sure to enter purchases brought home by all family members. 6 PACK as shown on label KIND OF STORE Check (√) or write in 4 PACK BRAND NAME WHERE DID YOU PURCHASE? GROCERY OR FOOD Date of month purchase was made HOW MUCH DID YOU PAY? HOW Was this a special price or offer? MANY TOTAL of each kind did CASH PAID IF If YES, describe kind, such as NO, Don’t store sale, cents off coupon, you buy? include Check gift on or in package, etc. here taxes How much savings in total? √ 2 PACK NOTE: Extra space page 1. Free Gifts and Samples, inside front cover. Write in DOUBLE EDGE Other– Describe SINGLES Write in all of the words which together describe the complete brand name. (or company if purchased from door-to-door or home delivery salesperson) KIT INCLUDING BLADES Including free blades with purchase of razor or travel and shaving kits. BLADES ONLY RAZOR BLADES OF STORE RAZOR INCLUDING BLADES as shown on label CHECK (√) ONE Type of Blade CHECK (√) ONE NAME DRUGS Date of month purchase was made KIND OF STORE Check (√) or write in DISCOUNT BRAND NAME WHERE DID YOU PURCHASE? Was this a special price or merchandise offer? HOW MANY TOTAL If YES, describe kind, such as of each CASH PAID • Price-Off marked on package • Store Coupon from newspaper kind did Don’t • Other Coupon from newspaper IF you buy? include • Coupon from magazine NO, taxes or received in mail Check on or in package Write in here •• Gift Special refund offer such number √ as cash refund or merof Total chandise offer packages $ ¢ • Store sales • Other deals ¢ off or other if any containers GROCERY OR FOOD HOW MUCH DID YOU PAY? Write in FIGURE 6-1 Illustrations of recording forms used in mail diary panels. CONSUMER PURCHASE PANELS 129 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA Advantages of Consumer Panels The data from a panel can be analyzed as a series of snapshots—providing information on aggregate sales activity, brand shares, and shifts in buyer characteristics and types of retail outlets from one month to the next. However, just as a motion picture is more revealing than a snapshot, it is the ability to measure changes in the behavior of individuals that is the real advantage of a panel. Knowledge of the sequence of purchases makes it possible to analyze: ■ Heavy buyers and their associated characteristics ■ Brand-switching rates and the extent of loyal buying (Evidence of stable purchase activity in the aggregate usually masks a great deal of individual movement.) ■ Cumulative market penetration and repeat purchase rates for new products (The success of new products depends jointly on the proportion who have tried them once and then purchased them a second, third, or fourth time.) A continuous purchase panel is an excellent vehicle for conducting quasiexperiments. A change in price, advertising copy, or package can be implemented in one panel region and the results compared with those of other panel regions where no change was made. Also, because of the lengthy relationship with members of continuous panels, there is much more opportunity to collect classification and attitudinal information to help understand the observed changes in behavior. In comparison with interview methods, although not with audits, the continuous purchase panel has the advantage of accuracy. Several studies have found that interview respondents will exaggerate their rate of purchasing (an effect that is most pronounced for infrequently purchased products) and dramatically oversimplify brand-switching behavior. Apparently, survey respondents tend to equate their most recent brand buying behavior with their “normal” behavior— whether or not this is accurate. Limitations of Consumer Panels 130 The limitations all relate to the vulnerability of panels to various biases. The first problem encountered is selection bias, because of the high rates of refusal and the resulting lack of representativeness. It is estimated that panel recruitment rates may vary from as low as 10 to 15 percent when the initial contact is made by mail in the United States, to 50 percent or more for personal contacts made on behalf of panels in Great Britain. A related problem is mortality effect, which may mean a dropout rate in excess of 20 percent a year. Some of this is unavoidable, because it is attributable to moves and illness. To reduce both the refusal and mortality rates, all panels offer some incentive for continuing participation; these include direct money payments and stamp schemes in exchange for gifts. There is little doubt that those who refuse or drop out differ from those who participate and remain. In particular, those who are not interested in the topic are the most likely to drop out. These losses are replaced by new members with similar characteristics. This amounts to a matching procedure, but of course it is not possible to match on all important characteristics. In Chapter 9 we will examine the problem of refusals, which afflicts all forms of survey work. As a consequence, however, all panels underrepresent the very rich, the very poor, and the transitory. Panels also are subject to a variety of testing effects. There is a definite tendency for new panel members to report unusual levels of purchasing because of the novelty of the reporting responsibility. This effect is so pronounced that the first month’s results usually are discarded. Surprisingly, there is little evidence to suggest that there is any long-run conditioning behavior that would lead to great brand loyalty or price consciousness that would produce systematically biased data. Finally, it should be kept in mind that usually one person does the recording of purchases. Whenever a product, such as cigarettes or toothpaste, is purchased by several members of the household, there is a good chance that some purchases will be missed. These products are also SCANNER SERVICES AND SINGLE-SOURCE SYSTEMS troublesome to analyze, for what appears to be brand switching simply may be the purchasing of different brands for (or by) different members of the household. SCANNER SERVICES AND SINGLE-SOURCE SYSTEMS It is no understatement to say that standardized sources of marketing data for consumer goods have been revolutionized by the universal product code (UPC) scanner. By the end of 1992, 80 percent of the commodity value of groceries, 85 percent of the commodity value of mass merchandises, and 40 percent of the commodity value for drugs came through scanner-equipped retail stores.2 Within markets equipped with scanner checkouts, purchases are recorded by passing them over a laser scanner, which automatically reads the bar-coded description (the universal product code) printed on each package. This in turn activates the cash register, which relates the product code to its current price—held in computer memory—and calculates the amount due. All the pertinent data on the purchase then are stored in the computer and can be accessed instantly for analysis. In addition to price, the memory stores information on coupon use, so marketers can quickly measure consumer response to using coupons across product categories. Information about shelf space, end-of-aisle displays, use of cooperative advertising, and the like can be merged with scanner data in order to measure the impact on sales, item movement, and net contribution of each marketing effort. Advanced applications are currently available that convert pictures taken from mobile phone cameras into scan-quality files that can be used as sources of marketing information. As mentioned earlier, the impact of scanners is being felt in the conduct of retail audits, where in-person audits will soon be obsolete, and in the growth of single-source services that track the behavior of individual households, from the TV set to the checkout counter. Scanner-Based Audit Services The most immediate benefits of scanner data are a high degree of accuracy, time savings, and the ability to study very short time periods of sales activity. To appreciate these benefits, consider the introduction of a new food product into a test market monitored by a scanner-based audit service. According to the standard bimonthly reports from the store audit service, there was steady progress in building the market share. During the second bimonthly period (see graph on this page), share more than doubled, as retailer advertising and coupon promotions were stepped up. 16.5 Sales share (%) 15.7 6.7 8 16 End of week 24 131 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA 27.6 Sales share (%) 23.0 22.0 21.8 18.4 14.9 12.1 12.4 13.1 10.0 6.5 5.1 5.0 2 3 4 5 18.8 17.1 11.3 6.5 4.8 5.1 8.6 1 17.8 6.4 5.8 3.4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Week FIGURE 6-2 Weekly results from scanner service. The results from the third period normally would not be available for six to eight weeks. With scanning data, however, weekly reports on this product were available within two to three weeks of the period’s end. These weekly reports were far more revealing, as we see from the data shown in Figure 6-2 for the same time period following the launch. The first 11 weeks followed a fairly typical new-brand cycle, with share by week 10 only half of the initial peak. Back-to-back price and coupon promotion in weeks 12 and 13 boosted shares to twice the introductory level. Shares then declined, until a further promotion in week 18. Fortunately, postpromotion shares were always higher than prepromotion shares through week 22. The sharp decline in week 23 was traced to a shortage of the most popular size of package, which was rectified during the next week. Three scanner-based audit services provide nationally, or locally, representative results within two weeks of the end of the reporting period. Each service provides full detail on each universal product code in a product category: product description, size, price, unit movement and unit share, and dollar sales and share, as well as availability in stores, shelf-space allocation, and usage of coupons. These data can be made available in virtually any combination of stores, to look at sales by chain, geographic area, or even individual store. Nielsen’s SCANTRACK now appears to be the largest service, with access to over 3,000 scanner-equipped stores. Both SCANTRACK and Nielsen Food Index (NFI) reports can be accessed directly by a manager with a personal computer and a modem, who can then tap directly into the Nielsen online system. For categories such as candy, snacks, and tobacco, where a large proportion of sales are made in stores without scanners, the supermarket scanner data can be combined with in-person audit data. A.C. Nielsen tracks consumer purchasing in over 150,000 retail outlets in more than 65 countries to provide clients with the most accurate, comprehensive, and timely information about the dynamics of the marketplace. 132 Applying Scanner Data. Scanner data are used mainly to study the behavior of the consumer when different elements of the marketing mix are varied. They are also used to study and forecast the sales of a new product. For example, in 1991 Frito Lay, Pepsico’s $4.2-billion-a-year snack-food division, tested its new multigrain snack called Sun Chips for 10 months in the Minneapolis area. The company experimented with 50 ridges and a salty, nutty flavor, and introduced the product on supermarket shelves. Using scanner data, the company discovered how many shoppers actually took home their first bag of Sun Chips in a given week and who went back a second and third time. This “depth of repeat” gives the company a much clearer sense of the product’s potential.3 Even retailers are using scanner data. They not only purchase scanner data, they also conduct their own tests.4 They conduct a number of experiments to analyze historical demand at various pricing levels and determine the prices at which they can maximize their total contribution. One retail grocer offered Minute Rice at five different prices over a period of 16 weeks, and the sales results are graphically shown here:5 SCANNER SERVICES AND SINGLE-SOURCE SYSTEMS $1.29 Retail price 1.19 1.09 .99 .89 20 40 60 Average weekly sales of boxes of Minute Rice 80 100 With costs of $0.69 per box, the store could see that profit was maximized at a price of $1.19. Lower prices did not generate sufficient incremental volume to overcome the drop in per-unit profit. This kind of analysis can now be done routinely for thousands of retail store items. This helps retailers control their operations more closely, and some feel that it will significantly enhance their power over manufacturers. Retailers with strong “store brands” have been able to capture market share from national brands by better understanding their customers’ preferences and price sensitivity. Safeway is an example of a retailer that does a lot of scanner-based research. Safeway used scanner data to test alternative placement of products within a store. Results showed, for example, that foil-packaged sauce mixes should not be displayed together, but should be spread around the store according to their contents (spaghetti sauce mix near bottled spaghetti sauce, gravy mix near canned gravy, etc.). In 1990, Safeway created Safeway Scanner Marketing Research Services (SSMRS). Its first product was StoreLab. Clients can test the effectiveness of off-shelf displays, shelf extenders, in-store signs, new package designs or sizes, and consumer bonus packages.6 A new technology called RFID may replace the bar codes. RFID utilizes a tiny silicon chip to store information; a small transmitter would then send this information to a scanner. RFID offers more benefits than a UPC, such as: ■ The ability to store more information than an 11-digit bar code ■ The ability to change the information on the tag ■ The ability to transmit all the information on the chip to a scanner without a clear line of sight RFID tags could make grocery shopping much easier. To check out, all you would have to do is roll your loaded shopping cart past an RFID scanner. In less than a second, it would scan the information on every item in your cart. Shoppers might be able to bag the items as they are selected and walk past the RFID scanner with the items already bagged. Although instant checkout sounds like a technological benefit every shopper would appreciate right away, RFID tags on groceries are still years away. The most significant problem is the high cost of the tiny tag components; the price of a few pennies per tag means that RFID is still impractical for grocery-product manufacturers, which operate on low profit margins. So while the supermarket industry led the way in the adoption of bar codes, other industries will lead the way to the adoption of RFID tags. Supermarket shoppers can be certain that the cost of the RFID tags will steadily decrease and will eventually be less than a penny per tag. Shoppers can also be certain that supermarkets will use any technology that reduces the labor cost required to check out a customer.7 Marketing Research in Action 6-1 illustrates the type of tracking system with bar codes. Bar codes have also facilitated the integration of physical and online transactions of products. Marketing Research in Action 6-2 shows how use of unique electronic identity (web code) helps producers, retailers, and consumers. 133 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 6-1 Bar Codes Monitor Effectiveness of Ads David Kirwan of Broadwell Marketing Group has created a bar code tracking system to help clients determine which types of ads, special offers, and media mix yield the most benefit. Broadwell was founded seven years ago in a converted two-car garage and has now evolved into a full-fledged marketing and advertising services company that generated $65 million in revenues in 1998. Manufacturers have used bar code coupons to gather information about consumer buying habits at supermarkets but Broadwell has adapted it further to get immediate feedback for restaurants and other stores. This is called intelligent marketing. Pizza Hut has collected $24 million in yearly savings thanks to intelligent marketing. Since applying this technique in 1994, Pizza Hut has cut its coupon and direct-marketing costs by 40 percent while nearly doubling its redemption rate. They used the data collected to consolidate different regional marketing departments into one, leveraging its printing and media buying power, which cuts down promotional pitches from 650 to less than 20. Broadwell clients include about two dozen major restaurants and retail chains. For a closer look on this article go to http://search.chron.com/chronicle/advancedSearch.do. SOURCE: Cheryl Hall, Houston Chronicle, Sunday, March 7, 1999, p. 10D. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 6-2 Bar Codes and the Internet With bar codes, companies can unify the online and physical worlds. Bar codes, or any other machinereadable encoded labels, allow physical objects to send data and instructions to networks. By combining bar codes with the Internet, consumer goods companies can stamp every product with a unique electronic identity that can be read wirelessly by new scanning gadgets. Stores can take inventory faster, and more accurately, since shelves equipped with wireless receivers will instantly know when a particular kind of merchandise is gone. With the use of supply chain software and store security system, stores can track a product’s location by their bar code labels, and stolen items will be identifiable anywhere. Consumers will be able to execute transactions on the Web, and they can scan special “Web codes” in advertisements or on products. SOURCE: David Orenstein, “Raising the Bar,” Business 2.0, August 2000. Single-Source Systems 134 Single-source systems are usually set up in reasonably self-contained communities, with their own newspaper and cable TV, and are roughly representative of the country’s demographics.8 After recruiting a test panel of community households, with small payments or coupons as inducements, the researcher monitors each home’s TV viewing habits and quizzes household members periodically on what newspapers, magazines and web sites they regularly read. This provides detailed records of exposure to programming and specific commercials. Each panel member presents an identification card at a scanner-equipped grocery store each time a purchase is made. This card alerts the checkout terminal to send an item-by-item record of those purchases to a computer that will be included with all other panel members. Then researchers can relate the details of a household’s purchase of each product to previously collected classification information about the household and any promotional stimuli to which they were exposed. These panel households can also be individually targeted for newspaper advertising, so a marketer can experiment with different combinations of advertising copy and/or exposure, discount coupons, and in-store price discounts and promotions. The effects of these different programs can be monitored unobtrusively in the supermarket, and each panel member’s purchase compared with what he had purchased before the test. To control for competitive activity, the service also tracks the amount of feature, display, and couponing activity in each supermarket. SCANNER SERVICES UPC’s for each grocery item are scanned at checkout. Information is sent from store to chain and on to IRI via telecommunication systems. Household panel members present an identification card at checkout, which identifies and assigns items purchased to that household. Coupons are collected and matched to the appropriate UPC. Information is electronically communicated to IRI computers. IRI field personnel visually survey stores and all print media to record retailer’s merchandising efforts, displays, and ad features. Field personnel also survey retail stores for a variety of custom applications, e.g., average number of units per display, space allocated to specific sections, and number of facings. Results are electronically communicated to IRI computers. AND SINGLE-SOURCE SYSTEMS Household panel members are selected for television monitoring and equipped with meters, which automatically record the set’s status every five seconds. Information is relayed back to IRI’s computers. Completed databases are converted to the required client format, transferred to appropriate recording mediums... hard copy, mag tape, pc diskette, etc..., and sent to the subscriber. Information is received at IRI and processed through the Neural Network (Artificial Intelligence) Quality Control System. The system approves the over 35 million records obtained weekly for further data processing and identifies records that require further verification. FIGURE 6-3 The process of scanner data collection by IRI. SOURCE: Information Resources, Inc. Television advertising exposure also can be controlled through the cable provider. For example, it is possible to transmit a Duncan Hines cake mix commercial only to Betty Crocker customers to find out if they can be induced to switch. The process of collecting data and providing it to manufacturers and retailers is shown in Figure 6-3. A typical application of single-source systems is an experiment by the Campbell Soup Company. Using an index of 100 for the average household’s V8 consumption, Campbell found that demographically similar TV audiences were consuming vastly different quantities of V8. In early 1987, for example, General Hospital audiences had a below-average 80 index, while Guiding Light audiences had an above-average 120 index. The results were surprising because General Hospital had a slightly higher representation of 25- to 54-year-old women, who were known from other research to be heavier buyers of V8. With this sort of information at hand, it becomes possible to rearrange media schedules to raise the average index.9 The possibilities for research are limited only by the ingenuity of the researchers.10 Suppose the research purpose is to decide whether a product sample should be an alternative or an accompaniment to TV commercials for a child-oriented cereal. The household test panel could be divided into four matched groups and given different combinations of samples and advertising. Sales results could then be monitored to determine whether the group that was also exposed to advertising would be more brand-loyal in subsequent weeks. The advantages of single-source data for this kind of market response study—compared with conventional market tests—are (1) availability of extensive pretest records, (2) immediate availability of test results, and (3) ability to compare the purchases of households receiving a specific 135 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA ad during the test with their own purchases prior to the test as well as with purchases of those who were not exposed to the new product ad. The disadvantage is that single-source systems can track purchases only at grocery stores and drugstores that are equipped with scanners. Furthermore, the test services do not know whether viewers actually are watching a television commercial when it is on, or whether they leave the room during the commercial break. Test participants who are paid volunteers might also unconsciously bias the results, because they know they are sending a message to advertisers. An unresolved question is whether tests conducted in small, self-contained markets can predict nationwide results. Finally, there are significant differences in results among competing single-source services that raise questions about the quality of the findings. Comparing Single-Source Services. One of the most advanced services is BehaviorScan, by Information Resources, Inc. (IRI).11 It has 3,000 households wired in each of various minimarkets across the United States, from Pittsfield, Massachusetts, to Visalia, California. BehaviorScan, an electronic test marketing service, allows marketers to test new products or new marketing programs. BehaviorScan targets TV commercials in a controlled environment to specific households and tracks the effectiveness of those ads in six smaller markets. It pioneered the service and has had the most experience in conducting tests. IRI’s system uses the identification card described earlier, so that details of transactions can be recorded, by household, upon presentation of the card to cashiers at participating stores. IRI also has another product called InfoScan. InfoScan is a syndicated market tracking service that provides weekly sales, price, and storecondition information on products sold in a sample of 12,000 grocery and 7,800 drug stores. The InfoScan service also includes a national sample of thousands of households whose purchases are recorded by checkout or hand-held scanners. BehaviorScan provides data about different markets, whereas InfoScan provides data on different products. Retail sales, detailed consumer purchasing information, and promotional activity are monitored and evaluated for all UPC products. For several years A.C. Nielsen had been testing a single-source service—Consumer Panel Services—and had 15,000 homes by 1989. In 1999, Nielsen had increased its panel size to 125,000 households. Nielsen, along with another new entrant, Scan America (a joint venture of Control Data and Selling Areas Marketing, Inc., a subsidiary of Time, Inc.) offers a very different technology. Unlike BehaviorScan participants, Nielsen families record their purchases at home by passing a penlike wand over goods bearing bar codes, keying in other information about coupons at the same time. The information is transmitted daily through a device attached to participants’ television sets. Because Nielsen’s system is not dependent on retailers who cooperate, it allows tracking of purchases from a wider range of stores, but it has been criticized for requiring that participants be actively involved in entering the data. Another important difference is that Nielsen can send test commercials over the air, so members of the sample do not have to be cable subscribers.12 Retail Measurement Services provides product movements data through food, drug, and other retail outlets in 79 countries. Flagship service is U.S.-based Scan-Track, which provides weekly data on packaged-goods sales, market shares, and retail prices from UPC scannerequipped supermarkets. Another service, Precision, tracks health and beauty aids product sales through drug and mass-merchandiser stores. In other countries, either scanning or audit-based methods are used to collect retail data. 136 Expert Systems Based on Single-Source Services. The rapid increase in the use of scanner technology has brought a peculiar problem to the marketing analyst. Although about a decade ago researchers were struggling to obtain data to conduct research, they now are faced with exactly the opposite problem. Users of scanner data have been overwhelmed with massive amounts of data. Therefore, suppliers of scanner data have created expert systems to give the data more utility for the managers. These expert systems are designed to cut the mass of scanner data down to actionable pieces of information. There are many expert systems that give solutions to specific MEDIA-RELATED STANDARDIZED SOURCES problems. Both Aldata and Nielsen have developed a number of these expert systems to make the decision process easier. A partial list is provided below. Aldata13 ■ Apollo Space Management Software provides suggestions for optimizing shelf allocations for each item in the section of a retail store. It analyzes scanner data from the InfoScan database to review the amount of shelf space, price, and profit components of product category shelf sets, such as dishwashing soaps or cereals. Apollo also can produce photoquality schematics using its library of 120,000 product images and dimensions. Thus, the retailer gets a visual picture of what the shelf reallocation will look like. Nielsen14 ■ Promotion Simulator is an easy-to-use software application that automatically simulates future promotion strategies. It uses historical Nielsen data to calculate the effect of the promotional plans on manufacturer and retailer profitability, given the price points and retail conditions in the plan. ■ Spotlight is an expert system that runs through the database, calculating volume and share changes, and searching for the key merchandising and competitive factors that influence those factors. Then it summarizes the findings in a presentation-quality report. ■ Sales Advisor automatically highlights need-to-know information and enables the sales force to add personal insights to presentation-quality output. Sales Advisor produces finished summaries and presentations of sales and marketing data. MEDIA-RELATED STANDARDIZED SOURCES Another area in which there is a great deal of commercial information available for marketers relates to advertising and media. A number of services have evolved to measure consumer exposure to the various media and advertisements. For example, Nielsen Media Research unveiled its much-anticipated Nielsen/Net Ratings Internet Measurement Service on March 22, 1999. According to a Nielsen spokesman, the NetRatings service uses data from 9,000 users on a realtime basis and will track movement on both websites and so-called banners, or Web-page ads that users click on to learn more information. Nielsen took on the help of Media Metrix, which has been the main company measuring consumer use of websites.15 In addition to Nielsen, several media-related services are described below. Nielsen Television Index The Nielsen Television Index (NTI) is probably the best known of all the commercial services available in this category. As a system for estimating national television audiences, NTI produces a “rating” and corresponding share estimate. A rating is the percent of all households that have at least one television set tuned to a program for at least 6 of every 15 minutes that the program is telecast. Share is the percent of households that have a television set that is tuned to a specific program at a specific time. From 1987 onward, Nielsen has been using “people meters” instead of the traditional diary to obtain this information. The people meter, which is attached to the television set, continuously monitors and records television viewing in terms of when the set was turned on, what channels were viewed, how long the channels were tuned in, and who in the household was watching that channel.16 The data are stored in the people meter and later are transmitted via telephone lines to a central processing facility. 137 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA Nielsen National Television Index (NTI) is based on a national 5,000-household sample equipped with people meters, and reporting TV, cable, and home video viewing. At the market level, Nielsen Media Research (NMR) provides Nielsen Station Index (NSI), which uses set meters to measure TV audiences through weekly mail diary surveys in 211 local markets among 100,000-plus households. Nielsen Homevideo Index (NHI) measures cable and VCR audiences using a combination of NTI, NSI, and custom diaries. Data on syndicated programs in the Nielsen Syndication Service (NSS) come from the same sources. Two services, through people meters, measure Hispanic audiences for Spanish-language media across the United States (800 households) and in the Los Angeles market (200 households). The Nielsen NTI-NAD data are used by media planners to analyze alternative network programs. Next, the cost efficiency of each program is calculated. Cost efficiency represents a television program’s ability to deliver the largest target audience at the smallest cost. A cost per thousand (CPM) calculation is computed as Cost of a commercial ⫽ CPM Number of target audience delivered Since 1994, Statistical Research Inc. (SRI)—a company known primarily for measuring national network ratio audiences—has made a priority of its pilot program for a new TV measurement system called SMART (Systems for Measurement and Reporting Television). SMART is known for its user-friendliness and the ability to count more viewers than Nielsen’s People Meter. Media industry observers believe SRI could have what it takes to topple Nielsen. SRI’s SMART grew out of the broadcast industry’s dissatisfaction with Nielsen Media Research. Critics have complained that Nielsen does not measure enough viewers, charges too much, and takes too long to provide subscribers with data. On the other hand, the SMART setup consists of meters with sensors that can pick up signals from the air. The meters require no wire connection and the meters attach to television sets with a Velcro strip. Despite SRI’s potential, the company still faces an uphill battle against Nielsen. According to president and co-founder of SRI Gale Metzger, SMART was designed to respond to the industry’s needs, and whether or not his company will beat out Nielsen depends on the industry.17 Major differences between the two systems are given in the chart below: SMART People Meter Mechanics No wire connection—sensors pluck signals from the air. Wired directly to TV and VCR tuners. Research Methods Data are retrieved by reading embedded codes called Universal Television Program Codes (UTPC) in some program signals; a decoder attached to the back of the TV will be able to record the UTPC identifying the program used. Telephone connections are used to return data. Method of Data Collection User logs in and out before and after watching TV with remote control device. Reputation as: Media measurement business serving the radio industry. User punches numerical code into a data-entry device. Arbitron Diary Panel 138 Arbitron gathers information that describes consumers’ demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle characteristics, as well as purchase intentions in 260 markets. Arbitron provides three qualitative services tailored to fit specific market size and marketing requirements: Scarborough caters to large markets, RetailDirect® is available in medium markets, and the Qualitative Diary Service is offered in smaller markets ranked 100⫹. Each service profiles a MEDIA-RELATED STANDARDIZED SOURCES market, the consumers, and the media choices in terms of key characteristics. The three services cover the major retail and media-usage categories in almost any area. There has been a lot of recent controversy over Nielsen television ratings. The networks claim that since Nielsen became a monopoly—all the other rivals dropped out—service has been unprofessional. The networks also have problems with Nielsen’s sampling methodology. The networks charged that Nielsen bases its ratings on too few diaries, making its data less representative of what viewers watch. In response to this, Nielsen decided to send out 10 percent more paper diaries for viewers to note what they watch. By 1998 the number of diaries increased by 50 percent, which Nielsen claims is the largest increase in sample size in the history of TV audience measurement. Arbitron, a subsidiary of Control Data, maintains both national and regional radio and TV panels. The panel members are chosen by randomly generated telephone numbers, to ensure that households with unlisted numbers are reached. Those household members who agree to participate when called are sent diaries in which they are asked to record their radio listening behavior over a short duration. Most radio markets are rated only once or twice a year; however, some larger ones are rated four times a year. The TV diary panel is supplemented with a sample of households that have agreed to attach an electronic meter to their television sets. Arbitron produces custom reports for clients. Typically, these are based on an interactive computer-based system called Arbitron Information on Demand (AID). Starch Scores The previous two sources of marketing data involve radio and television ratings, whereas Starch scores cover print media. The Starch Readership Service measures the readership of advertisements in magazines and newspapers.18 Some 75,000 advertisements in 1,000 issues of consumer and farm magazines, business publications, and newspapers are assessed each year, using 100,000 personal interviews. The Starch surveys employ the recognition method to assess a particular ad’s effectiveness. Four degrees of reading are recorded: 1. Nonreader: A person who does not remember having seen the advertisement in the issue. 2. Noted: A person who remembers seeing the advertisement in the issue. 3. Associated: A person who not only “noted” the advertisement, but who also saw or read some part of it that clearly indicated the brand or advertiser. 4. Read Most: A person who read 50 percent or more of the written material in the ad. Because newspaper and magazine space cost data are also available, a “readers per dollar” variable can be calculated. The final summary report from Starch shows each ad’s (one-half page or larger) overall readership percentages, readers per dollar, and rank when grouped by product category. Multimedia Services Simmons Media/Marketing Services uses a national probability sample of some 19,000 respondents and serves as a comprehensive data source, allowing the cross-referencing of product usage and media exposure. Four different interviews are conducted with each respondent, so that magazine, television, newspaper, and radio can all be covered by the Simmons Service. Information is reported for total adults and also for males and females separately. Media-mark Research also makes available information on exposure to various media and on household consumption of various products and services. Its annual survey of 20,000 adult respondents covers more than 250 magazines, newspapers, radio stations, and television channels, and over 450 products and services. 139 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF MARKETING DATA APPLICATIONS OF STANDARDIZED SOURCES OF DATA Standardized data sources are used widely in a number of marketing research problems. We have already discussed the various sources of standardized data. In this section we will look at some of the applications of standardized data. Table 6-2 gives a comprehensive framework of the types of sources used for different applications. Measuring Product Sales and Market Share A critical need in today’s increasingly competitive environment is for firms to have an accurate assessment of their performance. Marketing performance typically is measured by the company’s sales and market share. Firms can track their own sales through analyses of their sales invoices. An alternative source that can be used is the online bibliographic data sources. The measurement of sales to final customers historically has been done by the use of diary panels and retail store audits. Scanner data is now being widely used for this purpose.19 Measuring Advertisement Exposure and Effectiveness With media costs rising exponentially, and the options for advertising increasing dramatically with the advent of cable television, measurement of advertising exposure and effectiveness and program ratings has become critical. Advertis-ing exposure and effectiveness in the print media are tested by Starch scores20 and in the audio-visual media by Nielsen Television Services and Arbitron. Ratings of the various network and cable programs can be found in the Nielsen Television Index, and those of the radio programs in the Arbitron panels. Multimedia services such as the Simmons Media/Marketing Services and Media-mark Research conduct research on overall media exposure and effectiveness. Scanner data also have been used extensively for modeling ad exposure and measuring ad effectiveness.21 TABLE 6-2 Applications of Standardized Data Sources Measuring Promotion Effectiveness Measuring Ad Exposure and Effectiveness 1. Scanner data 1. Starch scores 2. Diary panels 2. NTI 3. Arbitron 4. Multimedia services Measuring Product Sales and Market Share 1. Diary panels 1. Scanner data 2. Retail audits 2. Starch scores 3. Scanner data 3. Diary panels 4. Internal records 4. Internal records 5. NAICS 140 Estimation and Evaluation of Models QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS Measuring Promotion Effectiveness Only since the advent of scanner data have marketers begun to fathom the power of promotion in increasing product sales and market share. This is evident from the fact that the number of coupons, samples, displays, and features at the retail outlets have increased tremendously over the past few years. Before scanner data was introduced in a big way, promotion effectiveness was measured by diary panels of the NPD group. Since store-level scanner data and scanner panels were introduced by IRI and Nielsen, measurement of promotion effectiveness has been revolutionized. The effect of promotions now can be observed directly through scanner data.22 Estimation and Evaluation of Models Models are essentially explanations of complex phenomena, expressed by symbols. They can be mathematical, verbal, graphical, or a figure. Marketing researchers build models to explain the various marketing phenomena and to draw managerial implications from them. The models can either be at the aggregate level or at the individual level. Scanner data are used to evaluate the efficacy of the model and estimate the response of the market to changes in the marketingmix elements.23 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes and diary panels are used for this purpose. Summary Between the generally available secondary sources (which are economical and quickly found but perhaps not relevant) and primary data (which are designed to be directly relevant but consume considerable time and money), there are various standardized information services. These exist whenever there are economies of scale in collecting data for a number of users with similar information needs. The most widely used services are still retail store audits and consumer panels. With recent developments in information technology, and especially the widespread adoption of store checkout scanners, the use of these services is quickly shifting to scanner audits. New capabilities for understanding consumer response by integrating measures of purchase behavior and communications exposure in single-source data are also changing the conduct of research very rapidly. The remainder of this book will emphasize the collection and analysis of primary data, for it is here that the greatest problems and opportunities are found. Knowledge of the methods of primary data collection is also essential to informed usage of secondary sources. Questions and Problems 1. 2. Which of these two, a product audit (such as the Audits and Surveys National Market Audit) or a store audit (such as the Nielsen Retail Index), would be more suitable for the following products: (a) peanut butter; (b) cameras; (c) engine oil additives; (d) chewing gum? Why? The manager of a supermarket in Hoboken, New Jersey, has two local newspapers competing for weekly ads. The salesperson for newspaper A claims that although A’s rates are significantly higher than newspaper B’s, paper A has the best circulation in the market. Also, readership studies show that area residents really scrutinize the paper’s pages. The salesperson for newspaper B concedes that the publication does not have the widest circulation, but points to readership studies 3. 4. showing that its ads are equally effective. “Why pay twice as much for an ad, when my paper can do as strong a job for less money?” This problem has been unresolved for some time. Recently, the store had nine scanner checkouts installed. The manager would like your advice on how to use the store’s scanner sales data to compare the effectiveness of the two newspapers. What combination of standardized services would you use to monitor the effects on your existing cereal brands when a new cereal brand is being introduced? Why? Would you use the different services to monitor trial and repeat purchases of the new cereal product in a test market? The sales and market shares for the same brand in the same period are often different when they are 141 5. 6. measured by a scanner audit rather than a consumer panel. How would you account for the differences? What would you do about them? Campbell Soup used BehaviorScan data to discover that viewers of two daytime serials had very good appetites. Search for Tomorrow viewers bought 27 percent more spaghetti sauce than average, but 22 percent less V8 vegetable juice. Viewers of All My Children bought 10 percent less spaghetti sauce than average, but purchased 46 percent more V8 than the norm for all viewers. How would you go about explaining the differences between these two programs that led to the consumption differences? What action would you recommend to Campbell Soup management? Wash O’Well, a leading detergent company in Canada, is unable to explain the reason why its new zeolite-based detergent has not captured the anticipated market share since its launch in 7. Minneapolis, Minnesota, in 1992. The company has decided to focus on point-of-sale activities: for example, which brands have distribution in which stores, what shelf location each brand occupies, the kinds of displays in effect, and so forth. The marketing manager has been instructed to recommend a suitable source of standardized data. a. What are the various data source alternatives available to Wash O’Well? b. Discuss the advantages and limitations of each of them and recommend the data source most suitable for Wash O’Well’s needs. a. What are the two types of consumer panels used for gathering marketing research data? b. Which type of panel is most frequently used in the United States? c. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using a consumer panel? End Notes 1. Seymour Sudman and Robert Ferber, Consumer Panels, Chicago: American Marketing Association, 1979. 2. Source: A.C. Nielsen. 3. Susan Caminiti, “What the Scanner Knows About You,” Fortune, December 3, 1990, pp. 51(2). 4. James Sinkula, “Status of Company Usage of Scanner Based Research,” Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Spring 1986, p. 17. 5. This example was adapted from Leonard M. Lodish and David J. Reibstein, “New Gold Mines and Mine Fields in Marketing Research,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 1986, pp. 168–182. 6. “Safeway Launches New StoreLab Testing Service,” Marketing News, January 8, 1990, p. 45. 7. Martin Sloane, “Technology May Alter Supermarket Checkout,” Houston Chronicle, Wednesday, July 21, 1999, p. 11F. 8. The following articles give a good overview of the single-source systems: David Curry, “Single Source Systems: Retail Management Present and Future,” Journal of Retailing, Spring 1989, pp. 1–20; Melvin Prince, “Some Uses and Abuses of Single Source Data for Promotional Decision Making,” Marketing Research, December 1989, pp. 18–22; “Futuristic Weaponry,” Advertising Age, June 11, 1990, pp. 5–12. 9. Joanne Lipman, “Single Source Ad Research Heralds Detailed Look at Household Habits,” Wall Street Journal, February 16, 1988, p. 35. 10. Examples of recent applications of scanner data include: Peter S. Fader and Leigh McAllister, “An Elimination by Aspects Model of Consumer Response to Promotion Calibrated on UPC Scanner Data,” Journal of Marketing Research, August 1990, pp. 322–332; Eric Waarts, Martin Carree, and Beren Wierenga, “Full Information Maximum Likelihood 142 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. Estimation of Brand Positioning Maps Using Supermarket Scanning Data,” Journal of Marketing Research, November 1991, pp. 483–490. The information on BehaviorScan is drawn from a pamphlet from Information Resources Incorporated. A good article that compares the two single-sources suppliers is Leon Winters, “Home Scan vs. Store Scan Panels: Single Source Options for the 1990s,” Marketing Research, December 1989, pp. 61–65. Also see “Now It’s Down to Two Equal Competitors,” Superbrands 1991: A Supplement to Adweek’s Marketing Week, p. 28; and “IRI, Nielsen Slug It Out in Scanning Wars,” Marketing News, September 2, 1991, p. 1. Source: Information Resources Incorporated. Source: A.C. Nielsen. “Nielsen on the Net,” Wall Street Journal, Friday, March 19, 1999. William R. Dillon, Thomas J. Madden, and Neil H. Firtle, Marketing Research in a Marketing Environment, Boston: Irwin, 1990; and Soong Roland, “The Statistical Reliability of People Meter Readings,” Journal of Advertising Research, February–March 1988, pp. 50–56. Michelle Wirth-Fellman, “A SMART Move,” Marketing News, September 14, 1998, pp. 1, 7. Starch Readership Report: Scope, Method and Use, Mamaroneck, NY: Starch INRA Hooper, undated. V. Kumar and T. Heath, “A Comparative Study of Market Share Models Using Disaggregate Data,” International Journal of Forecasting, July 1990, pp. 163–174; Francis J. Mulhern and Robert P. Leone, “Implicit Price Bundling of Retail Products: A Multiproduct Approach to Maximizing Store Profitability,” Journal of Marketing, October 1991, pp. 63–76. 20. George M. Zinkhan and Betsy D. Gelb, “What Starch Scores Predict,” Journal of Advertising Research, August–September 1986, pp. 45–50. 21. Gerald J. Tellis, “Advertising Exposure, Loyalty, and Brand Purchase: A Two-State Model of Choice,” Journal of Marketing Research, May 1988, pp. 134–144; V. Kumar and R. T. Rust, “Market Segmentation by Visual Inspection,” Journal of Advertising Research, 1989, pp. 23–29. 22. Sunil Gupta, “Impact of Sales Promotions on When, What, and How Much to Buy,” Journal of Marketing Research, November 1988, pp. 342–355; V. Kumar and R. Leone, “Measuring the Effect of Retail Store Promotions on Brand and Store Substitution,” Journal of Marketing Research, May 1988, pp. 178–185; Robert C. Blattberg and Scott A. Neslin, Sales Promotion: Concepts, Methods, and Strategies, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1990. 23. V. Kumar, A. Ghosh, and G. Tellis, “A Decomposition of Repeat Buying,” Marketing Letters, 3(4), 1992, pp. 407–417; Peters S. Fader, James M. Lattin, and John D. C. Little, “Estimating Nonlinear Parameters in the Multinomial Logit Model,” Marketing Science, Fall 1992, pp. 372–385. CASE 6-1 Promotion of Rocket Soups The data for this case were collected from grocery store scanner installations in one market area, and consist of Soups provide an interesting case history through which to examine the impact of sales promotion. Soups are sold primarily through food stores and frequently are promoted by both the manufacturer and the retailer. This case is based on 40 weeks of scanner sales history in one city. Please answer all of the questions at the end of the case. Background Soups are purchased by over 75 percent of all households. On average, the time between purchases is around 40 days. Sales promotion, including features, displays, and price reductions, is extremely important in this category, with around 55 percent of annual category sales moving with some sort of sales promotion. Shelf-price reductions, when they are used, average about 30 percent. The major competitors in this category are Brands Rocket Stellar Tasty Lovely Happy Smile Share 19.7 40.3 13.4 3.5 18.1 5.0 1. Weekly store sales by brand 2. Predominant price charged by brand by store 3. Occurrence of promotional activity by brand by store The data have been summarized across all stores in the market on a weekly basis, for a total of 60 weeks. Table 6-3 is the week-by-week summary. At the weekly level, Table 6-4 shows the data on the amount of volume moved by various promotions at various prices. However, since the stores in the market are of varying sizes, direct evaluation of promotional effects is difficult. Therefore, the sales effects are normalized (adjusting for store sizes statistically). Table 6-5 shows the normalized sales volume by promotional type. The commonly used methods for storelevel scanner data are (1) brand volume per $1,000,000 total all commodity volume spending, and (2) brand volume per 1,000 register checkouts. During the time of data collection, some extremely “hot” promotional activity occurred as the result of a Rocket promotional program. Some retailers decided to use Rocket soup as a “loss leader” in addition to the manufacturer promotions, and combined both. These activities resulted in substantial variations in price, volume, and share of Rocket. This case was prepared by V. Kumar for the purpose of classroom discussion. For similar cases, refer to J. C. Totten and M. P. Block, Analyzing Sales Promotion, Chicago: Dartnell Corp., 1994. Case Questions Question 1 According to Table 6-3, weeks 5, 12, 22, 23, 36, and 37 were highly important sales weeks for Rocket. Weeks 2, 8, and 31 were important sales weeks for the compe- tition. If data on promotional activity are not known, its presence is usually inferred by abnormally high sales of the brand or category, a cut in price, or both. Reviewing these weeks, and nearby weeks, discuss the effects on Rocket and its competitors on: 143 1. 2. 3. 4. Total category volume Total category dollar spending Each other’s volume (Rocket’s and competitors’) Sales in the weeks following high volume movement Question 2 Table 6-4 shows overall promotional activity. Sales during week 12 were at an average price near zero. This typically arises out of a retail promotion of the type: “Free box of Rocket given with total purchases of $10.00 or more.” Table 6-5 shows sales levels adjusted for the percentage of stores in each class, and for their relative sizes. Discuss any difficulties you see in assessing the impact of the week 12 promotion on: Question 3 Using Table 6-5, plot only the nonpromoted sales versus the nonpromoted price. Discuss the probable percent impact on Rocket sales from a 10 percent increase or decrease in price. Question 4 Using Table 6-5, plot the relationship between sales on display only, and display-only price. What similarities and differences in sales levels and response to price do you see in comparing the display-only response to the nonpromotional response? 1. Incremental volume to Rocket 2. Promotional volume borrowed from future sales CASE 6-2 Kerry Gold Products, Ltd. In late May of 1996 the research manager for Kerry Gold Products met with the product manager for margarine to review the company’s first experience with Nielsen scanner data. A year-long test in a single chain organization, which began in April 1995, had been completed recently. The first purpose of their review was to interpret the findings. They decided to concentrate on the results of the first 18 weeks of the tests, which are summarized in Figure 6-4. The size of the bars represents the weekly unit sales for Kerry Gold brand and the three competing brands also sold by the chain organization. In addition to the weekly data there were summary data CASE 6-3 Paradise Foods1 by Steven H. Star and Glen L. Urban Introduction Bill Horton sat alone in his office late Friday afternoon anxiously leafing through computer printouts, even 1 Steven H. Star is director of the marketing center at MIT’s Sloan School of Management. Glen L. Urban is Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank Professor of Management and deputy dean of the Sloan School. This case is reprinted with permission from Harvard Business Review, September–October 1988. 144 on share of total sales for the first and second halves of the year. This distinction was important because Kerry Gold had spent relatively little on promotion in the second half of the year. Since Nielsen had full records of all sales, they were also able to examine their share of sales during weeks when no brands offered price-reduction promotions. These data are shown in the two right-hand columns in Table 6-6. While reviewing these results, the research manager also was wondering whether scanner data would be useful for other grocery products sold by Kerry Gold. Many of them were as heavily promoted as margarine. Judgments on the desirability of consumer promotions for these products usually were based on a combination of store audit data plus periodic controlled experiments. though he could recite their contents from memory. Horton was waiting for his boss, Bob Murphy, to report back the decision on a subject the marketing committee had been debating for more than four hours. The issue—whether Paradise Foods should authorize national rollout of a new product, Sweet Dream, to complement its established frozen specialty dessert, LaTreat. Horton was product manager for Sweet Dream, and Murphy was the group manager responsible for all new products in Paradise’s dessert line. “I’m glad you’re sitting,” Bob quipped uncomfortably as he entered Bill’s office. “The news isn’t good. The committee decided not to go ahead.” “I don’t believe it,” Bill protested, “I started to worry when the meeting dragged on, but I never TABLE 6-3 City Sales of Soup by Week (Price is Volume-Weighted Average) Week 1 Rocket Volume 306 Rocket Dollars Category Volume Category Dollars Rocket Price 250 5,984 4,356 0.82 Rocket Share Competitive Volume 5.1 5,678 2 345 384 14,288 9,780 1.11 2.4 13,943 3 873 694 6,201 4,893 0.79 14.1 5,328 4 900 715 5,657 4,447 0.79 15.9 4,757 5 4,404 2,772 7,673 5,453 0.63 57.4 3,269 6 456 388 5,027 4,196 0.85 9.1 4,571 7 444 395 5,570 4,687 0.89 8.0 5,126 8 513 507 11,519 8,305 0.98 4.5 11,006 9 483 441 4,661 3,917 0.91 10.4 4,178 10 615 548 4,803 4,381 0.89 12.8 4,188 11 624 571 5,038 4,632 0.91 12.4 4,414 12 16,113 705 19,633 3,982 0.04 82.1 3,520 13 1,056 811 4,476 3,967 0.76 23.6 3,420 14 381 375 3,863 3,599 0.98 9.9 3,482 15 534 526 5,014 4,677 0.98 10.6 4,480 16 1,821 870 6,487 5,257 0.47 28.1 4,666 17 390 384 3,642 3,350 0.98 10.7 3,252 18 405 398 3,743 3,441 0.98 10.8 3,338 19 1,152 1,012 5,042 4,865 0.87 22.8 3,890 20 348 342 4,733 4,248 0.98 7.4 4,385 21 378 372 3,862 3,448 0.98 9.8 3,484 22 5,319 5,129 8,352 7,839 0.96 63.7 3,033 23 2,280 1,691 7,086 5,311 0.74 32.2 4,806 24 1,194 962 5,931 4,878 0.80 20.1 4,737 25 1,020 837 5,708 4,666 0.82 17.9 4,688 26 342 336 7,780 5,849 0.98 4.4 7,438 27 1,509 1,378 5,385 5,191 0.91 28.0 3,876 28 420 413 7,352 5,533 0.98 5.7 6,932 29 528 520 7,516 5,661 0.98 7.0 6,988 30 942 676 6,416 5,461 0.71 14.7 5,474 31 957 711 15,599 7,578 0.74 6.1 14,642 32 1,014 738 4,937 4,294 0.72 20.5 3,923 33 1,059 990 5,664 5,213 0.93 18.7 4,605 34 351 385 9,045 7,302 1.09 3.9 8,694 35 384 418 5,435 4,932 1.09 7.1 5,051 36 4,122 3,084 8,672 7,699 0.74 47.5 4,550 37 9,108 4,466 13,165 8,694 0.49 69.2 4,057 38 498 542 5,643 5,103 1.09 8.8 5,145 39 459 500 5,555 5,150 1.09 8.3 5,096 40 486 529 4,485 4,285 1.09 10.8 3,999 145 TABLE 6-4 City Sales of Soup by Week (Price is Volume-Weighted Average Sales by Promotional Type) Week Volume with No Promotion Price with No Promotion Volume with Display Only Price with Display Only Volume with Feature Only Price with Feature Only Volume with Feature and Display Price with Feature and Display 1 306 0.82 0 . 0 . 0 . 2 345 1.11 0 . 0 . 0 . 3 477 0.75 396 0.85 0 . 0 . 4 420 0.75 480 . 5 222 0.69 0 6 399 0.83 7 375 8 9 0.84 0 . 0 . 0 . 4,182 57 0.99 0 . 0 . 0.87 69 0.99 0 . 0 . 471 0.98 42 1.07 0 . 0 . 405 0.90 78 0.99 0 . 0 . 10 486 0.87 129 0.99 0 . 0 . 11 537 0.90 87 0.99 0 . 0 . 12 486 0.79 102 13 384 0.75 0 0.63 0.85 0 . 15,525 0.02 . 0 . 672 0.78 14 381 0.99 0 . 0 . 0 . 15 534 0.99 0 . 0 . 0 . 16 267 0.87 153 0.98 0 . 1,401 17 390 0.99 0 . 0 . 0 . . 0 . 0 . 18 405 0.98 0 19 315 0.81 672 0.89 60 0.98 105 0.35 0.98 20 348 0.99 0 . 0 . 0 . 21 378 0.98 0 . 0 . 0 . 22 201 0 . 0 . 5,118 23 0 24 25 0.69 0.98 . 702 0.86 1,578 819 0.86 375 0.69 366 0.74 654 0.86 26 252 0.98 90 27 117 0.99 288 28 327 0.98 29 309 0.98 30 588 0.74 31 450 0.73 32 333 0.69 33 555 0.87 34 303 1.10 48 1.12 0 . 0 . 35 384 1.09 0 . 0 . 0 . 36 132 0.89 0 . 0 . 3,990 37 0 0.74 0 . 6,699 38 498 1.09 0 . 0 . 0 . 39 459 1.09 0 . 0 . 0 . 40 486 1.09 0 . 0 . 0 . 146 . 0.69 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0.99 0 . 0 . 0.99 585 93 0.99 0 . 0 . 219 0.99 0 . 0 . 354 0.69 0 . 0 . 507 0.75 0 . 0 . 288 0.69 195 504 1.01 0 2,409 0.89 0.79 . 519 198 0 0.88 0.79 . 0.74 0.40 TABLE 6-5 City Sales of Soup by Week (Price is Volume-Weighted Average Normalized Volume Sales by Promotional Type) Week Normalized Volume with No Promotion Price with No Promotion Normal Volume with Display Only Price with Display Only Normal Volume with Feature Only Price with Feature Only Normal Volume with Feature and Display Price with Feature and Display 1 0.21 0.82 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 2 0.20 1.11 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 3 0.45 0.75 0.66 0.85 0.00 . 0.00 . 4 0.50 0.75 0.63 0.84 0.00 . 0.00 . 5 0.60 0.69 0.00 . 0.00 . 3.94 0.63 6 0.33 0.83 0.32 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 7 0.24 0.87 0.36 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 8 0.31 0.98 0.27 1.07 0.00 . 0.00 . 9 0.30 0.90 0.34 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 10 0.36 0.87 0.50 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 11 0.41 0.90 0.41 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 12 0.50 0.79 0.45 0.85 0.00 . 3.95 0.02 13 0.38 0.75 0.00 . 0.00 . 1.14 0.78 14 0.25 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 15 0.26 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 16 0.34 0.87 0.65 0.98 0.00 . 2.05 0.35 17 0.25 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 18 0.27 0.98 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 19 0.70 0.81 1.85 0.89 0.15 0.98 0.48 0.98 20 0.21 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 21 0.27 0.98 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 22 0.57 0.69 0.00 . 0.00 . 4.79 0.98 23 0.00 . 0.64 0.86 3.77 0.69 0.00 . 24 0.65 0.86 0.98 0.69 0.00 . 0.00 . 25 0.55 0.74 0.80 0.86 0.00 . 0.00 . 26 0.21 0.98 0.28 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 27 0.43 0.99 0.82 0.99 1.55 0.89 0.79 0.88 28 0.26 0.98 0.29 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 29 0.24 0.98 0.67 0.99 0.00 . 0.00 . 30 0.48 0.74 1.15 0.69 0.00 . 0.00 . 31 0.45 0.73 0.95 0.75 0.00 . 0.00 . 32 0.55 0.69 0.93 0.69 0.96 0.79 0.55 0.79 33 0.52 0.87 0.88 1.01 0.00 . 0.00 . 34 0.22 1.10 0.36 1.12 0.00 . 0.00 . 35 0.25 1.09 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 36 0.37 0.89 0.00 . 0.00 . 2.98 0.74 37 0.00 . 1.92 0.74 0.00 . 18.61 0.40 38 0.29 1.09 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 39 0.26 1.09 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 40 0.29 1.09 0.00 . 0.00 . 0.00 . 147 CHAPTER 6 STANDARDIZED SOURCES 747 634 58¢ MARKETING DATA 21,715 16,773 599 OF 38¢ 737 58¢ 19,340 773 601 38¢ 58¢ Kerry Gold brand Regular 1 lb. 58¢ 19,468 38¢ 746 58¢ 772 744 935 38¢ 723 797 706 586 58¢ Brand B Regular 1 lb. 49–54–58¢ 6,460 5,927 2,960 1,256 1,713 971 1,359 1,268 1,239 1,513 1,127 49¢ 54¢ 13,908 49¢ 1,355 58¢ 1,689 44¢ 49¢ 1,235 58¢ 1,184 49¢ 1,021 58¢ 1,450 58¢ 5,441 2,462 54¢ 44¢ 1 8 April '85 790 54¢ 15 857 596 578 529 6 May 13 20 44¢ 22 29 1,159 1,224 1,260 1,058 50¢ 1,559 474 50¢ Brand C Regular 1 lb. 49–58¢ Brand D Regular 1 lb. 54–58¢ 6,174 611 58¢ 2,653 1,742 1,810 49¢ 4,886 50¢ 8,650 981 38¢ 58¢ 10,014 2,319 1,318 1,076 1,246 1,231 976 1,017 1,188 753 675 683 10 17 1,810 532 54¢ 49¢ 27 3 June Weeks 1,014 24 1 July 8 58¢ 49¢ 58¢ 15 22 29 FIGURE 6-4 Unit sales per week (and prevailing price for the brand during the week). TABLE 6-6 Share of Sales in Nonpromotional Weeks (%) Share of Total Sales (%) 1st 12 yr Brand 148 2nd 12 yr (34)* 13 1st 21 yr Kerry Gold 39 (7) B 17 (8) 42 C 29 (13) 28 D 15 (11) 17 (12) 17.6 (66) 100 (72) 2nd 12 yr 18.9 19.3 (35) 30.4 30.3 (18) 33.1 33.9 100 16.5 100 *Figures in parentheses are deal merchandise shares of market. In the first half of the year, 66 percent of total unit sales in the category were on deal. thought they’d say no. Damn. Eighteen months down the drain.” “I know how you feel, but you have to understand where the committee was coming from. It was a real close call—as close as I can remember since I’ve had this job. But the more carefully they considered your tests results, the more it looked like the returns just weren’t there.” “Not there? All they had to look at was Appendix B in my report—the data from Midland and Pittsfield: Sweet Dream got a 3 percent share after 26 weeks. A trial rate of 15 percent. A repurchase rate of 45 percent. If national performance were anywhere close to that, we’d have our launch costs back in 14 months. Who can argue with that?” “I’m on your side here, but I only had one vote,” Bob said defensively. “We both knew what Barbara’s position was going to be—and you know how much weight she carries around here these days.” Barbara Mayer was the Paradise group manager responsible for established dessert products. She became a “grouper” in 1985, after two enormously successful years as LaTreat’s first product manager. “And to be honest, it was tough to take issue with her,” Bob continued. “What’s the point of introducing Sweet Dream if you end up stealing share from LaTreat? In fact, Barbara used some of your data against us. She kept waving around Appendix C, griping that 75% of the people who tried Sweet Dream had bought LaTreat in the previous four weeks. And repurchase rates were highest among LaTreat heavy users. You know how the fourteenth floor feels about LaTreat. Barbara claims that adjusting for lost LaTreat sales means Sweet Dream doesn’t recover its up-front costs for three years.” LaTreat Launched in 1983, LaTreat was the first “super premium” frozen dessert to enter national distribution. It consisted of 3.5 ounces of vanilla ice cream dipped in penuche fudge and covered with almonds. An individual bar sold for just under $2 and a package of four was $7. Unlike LaTreat, which came on a stick, Sweet Dream resembled an ice cream sandwich. It consisted of sweet-cream ice cream between two oversized chocolate chip cookies and coated with dark Belgian chocolate. Its price was comparable to LaTreat’s. Under Barbara Mayer, annual sales of LaTreat soon reached $40 million, and it began making a significant contribution to dessert groups profits. It accounted for almost 5 percent of the market despite a price about 50 percent higher than standard frozen specialties. Lately, however, competition had stiffened. LaTreat faced tough challenges from three direct competitors as well as several parallel concepts (like Sweet Dream) at various stages of test marketing. The total frozen specialties market had grown fast enough to absorb these new entrants without reducing LaTreat sales, but revenues had been essentially flat through 1986 and 1987. Bill understood the importance of LaTreat, but he was not the type to mince words. “You and I both know things are more complicated than Barbara would have people believe,” he told Bob. “There wasn’t the same cannibalization effect in Marion and Corvallis. And we never did a test in Midland and Pittsfield where Barbara’s people were free to defend LaTreat. We might be able to have it both ways . . .” Bob interrupted. “Bill, we could stay here all night on this. But what’s the point? The committee’s made its decision. You don’t like it, I don’t like it. But these aren’t stupid people. It’s hard to argue with the dessert group’s batting average over the last five years. This may ring hollow right now, but you can’t take this personally.” “That’s easy for you to say,” Bill sighed. “You know how this company works,” Bob reminded him. “We don’t hold withdrawal of a new product against the manager if withdrawal is the right decision. Hell, it happened to me ten years ago with that dumb strawberry topping. It made sense to kill that product. And I was better off at the company for it. The fact is, the committee was impressed as hell with the research you did—although to be honest, you may have overwhelmed them. A 40-page report with 30 pages of appendixes. I had trouble wading through it all. But that doesn’t matter. You did a good job, and the people who count know that.” “I appreciate the sentiment, but that’s not why I think this is the wrong decision. Sweet Dream is a go on the merits.” “Go home, play some golf this weekend,” Bob counseled. “Things won’t seem so bleak on Monday.” Bill never made it to the country club. Instead, he spent the weekend worrying about his future at Paradise and puzzling over how the marketing committee could have reached its no-launch decision. Sweet Dream Proposal Paradise Foods was a large, successful manufacturer of packaged foods and household products whose markets were becoming increasingly competitive. Bill believed that Paradise was vulnerable in this treacherous environment because of its failure to keep pace with technological change—in particular, the increasing sophistication of marketing research based on computer modeling, supermarket scanner data, and targetable cable television. Paradise certainly used these tools, but to Bill’s way of thinking, top management didn’t embrace them with the same enthusiasm as other companies. When Bill became produce manager for Sweet Dream, he promised himself he would do a state-ofthe-art research job. The plan was to compare the performance of Sweet Dream in two test markets exposed to different advertising and promotion strategies. The campaign in Midland, Texas, and Pittsfield, Massachusetts, struck an overtly self-indulgent tone— “Go Ahead, You Deserve It”—and used limited price 149 promotion to induce trial. The campaign in Marion, Indiana, and Corvallis, Oregon, emphasized superior quality—“Taste the Goodness”—and used promotion aggressively. Sunday newspapers in the two cities frequently carried 50-cents-off coupons, and Sweet Dream boxes included a 75-cent rebate voucher. Bill used two computer-based research services— InfoScan and BehaviorScan—to evaluate Sweet Dream’s performance and long-term potential.2 InfoScan tracks product purchases on a national and local basis for the packaged-goods industry. It collects point-of-sale information on all bar-coded products sold in a representative sample of supermarkets and drugstores. It generates weekly data on volume, price, market share, the relationship between sales and promotional offers, and merchandising conditions. Bill subscribed to InfoScan to monitor competitive trends in the frozen specialties segment. BehaviorScan is used in marketing tests to measure the effect of marketing strategies on product purchases. In a typical BehaviorScan test, one group of consumer panelists is exposed to certain variables (that is, print or television advertisements, coupons, free samples, instore displays), while other participating consumers serve as a control group. Company analysts use supermarket scanner data on both groups of consumers (who present identification cards to store checkout clerks) to evaluate purchasing responses to marketing campaigns. A typical BehaviorScan test lasts about one year. Bill Horton’s research program had generated a stack of computer printouts several feet high. He had spent much of the spring trying to unravel the complex interactions between different advertising and promotion strategies for Sweet Dream, the various promotion deals Paradise was running on LaTreat, and the proliferation of other frozen specialties. Despite Bob’s advice to relax, Bill spent Sunday afternoon in front of his home computer, massaging the data one last time. Competitive Analysis On Monday, Bill arrived at his office a few minutes late. He was surprised to find Barbara Mayer waiting on him. “Sorry to drop in on you first thing,” she said, “but I wanted to let you know what a fantastic job you did on the Sweet Dream test. I’m sure you were disappointed with the committee’s decision, and in a way I was too. It would have been great to work together on the rollout. But the data were pretty clear. We didn’t have a choice.” “Well, I thought the data were clear too—but in the opposite direction.” “Come on, Bill, you can understand the logic of the decision. The Midland and Pittsfield numbers were fine, but they were coming at the expense of LaTreat. There wasn’t so much cannibalization in Marion and 2 InfoScan and BehaviorScan are actual services offered by Information Resources, Inc. 150 Corvallis, but the Sweet Dream numbers weren’t as good either. Trial was acceptable, but repurchase was low. We might make money, but we’d never meet the hurdle rate. Every so often a product just falls between two stools.” “So we’ll do more tests,” Bill countered. “We can play with the positioning in Marion and Corvallis. Or we can start from scratch somewhere else. I can have us wired to go in three weeks.” “We’ve already taken 18 months on Sweet Dream,” Barbara said. “The committee felt it was time to try new concepts. I don’t think that’s so unreasonable.” “You’re forgetting two things,” Bill replied. “First, with freezer space as tight as it is, the longer it takes to come up with another product, the harder the stores are going to squeeze us. Second, other people are going to find out how well Sweet Dream did in Midland and Pittsfield. We’re the only ones who get the BehaviorScan numbers, but you know the competition is monitoring our tests. What do you think Weston & Williams is going to do when it sees the results? It’ll have a Sweet Dream clone out in a few months if we don’t launch.” Weston & Williams (W & W) was a leading supplier of household products that was diversifying into foods, including desserts. It had a reputation as a conservative company that insisted on exhaustive prelaunch research. But the trade press recently had reported on W & W’s decision to rush Pounce—a combination detergent, colorfast bleach, and fabric softener—to the market on the basis of very preliminary tests and data from a competitior’s test markets. W & W had thus become the first national entrant in the “maxiwash” category. “Bob made that argument Friday,” Barbara said. “But you can guess how far he got. The guys upstairs have a tough enough time taking our own computer data seriously. They don’t buy the idea that someone else is going to jump into the market based on our tests. Plus, that would be a huge risk. Pounce may have given Weston & Williams all the gray hair they can stand for a few years.” “From what I can tell, Barbara, the only issue that counted was cannibalization.” Bill’s voice betrayed a rekindled sense of frustration. “I understand you want to protect LaTreat. I understand the company wants to protect LaTreat. But it seems to me we’re protecting a product that is getting tired.” “What are you talking about?” Barbara objected. “Profits aren’t growing as fast as they used to, but they’re not dropping either. LaTreat is solid.” Sales Analysis “Come on, Barbara. Your people have really been promoting it in the last two quarters—shifting money out of print and TV and into coupons and rebates. Total spending hasn’t changed, so profits are OK. But LaTreat has gotten hooked on promotion. And all the wrong Millions of dollars $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 0 Nominal sales Average sales Sales without promotion Apr May 1987 June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 1988 Feb Mar FIGURE 6-5 LaTreat sales with and without promotions (seasonally adjusted figures presented on an annualized basis). kinds of promotion. You’ve got people accelerating future purchases and price-sensitive types jumping in whenever LaTreat goes on sale. Who needs that?” “Where are you getting this stuff?” Barbara demanded, “I didn’t see it in your report.” “I spent the weekend running some more numbers.” Bill replied. “Take a look at this.” Bill punched a few buttons on his computer keyboard and called up a series of graphs. The first documented the growing percentage of LaTreat sales connected with promotional offers. A second graph disaggregated LaTreat’s promotion-related sales by four buyer categories Bill had created from BehaviorScan data. “Loyalists” were longtime customers who increased their purchases in response to a deal. “Trial users” bought LaTreat for the first time because of the promotion and seemed to be turning into loyal customers. “Accelerators” were longtime customers who used coupons or rebates to stock up on product they would have bought anyway. “Switch-on-deal” customers were nonusers who bought LaTreat when there were promotions but demonstrated little long-term loyalty. Bill’s graph documented that a majority of LaTreat’s coupon redeemers fell into the last two categories, with “loyalists” accounting for a shrinking percentage of sales. Finally, Bill called up his ultimate evidence—a graph that adjusted LaTreat sales to eliminate the effect of promotions. (See Figure 6-5.) “I’m amazed you spent your weekend doing this,” Barbara said, “but I’m glad you did. It’ll help us think through future marketing strategies for LaTreat. But it doesn’t change what the committee decided. It’s time to move on.” “I’m not so sure,” Bill replied. “I hope you don’t mind, but I think I should show these data to Bob. Maybe he can convince the committee to reconsider. After all, if LaTreat is weakening, its going to show up in your profit figures sooner or later.” “Data don’t make decisions, Bill, people do. And the people on the marketing committee have been in the industry a lot longer than you. Their gut tells them things your computer can’t. Besides, you and I both know that when you collect this much data, you can make it show just about anything. Go ahead and talk to Bob, but I’m sure he’ll see things the same way I do.” Assignment 1. 2. What (if any) issues did Bill Horton overlook in evaluating Sweet Dream? Do you think Sweet Dream should be launched? Give the rationale for your answer. Is there any additional research you feel should be conducted before a final decision on the Sweet Dream launch is made? 151 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET1 Learning Objectives ■ Give a brief overview of the past and current developments of the Internet. ■ Describe the components of the Internet. ■ Illustrate current commercial research applications. ■ Demonstrate the current use of the Internet as a marketing research tool. ■ Provide an outlook of future developments. The Internet is arguably an immensely important tool that has added a new dimension to traditional marketing research intelligence. With volumes of relevant information available at the click of a mouse, decision making has assumed a new perspective. The number of Internet users around the world is constantly growing. According to data published by comScore Networks, the Internet currently reaches 747 million people worldwide. The highest growth percentages over the past year comes from developing economies—namely India (33 percent), the Russian Federation (21 percent) and China (20 percent).2 At the start of the new century, 55 million of us were shopping to our hearts’ content at home. Shopping online, and researching products online, has increased since 2000. In 2000, while 22 percent of Americans had bought a product online, this rate grew to 49 percent in 2007. For product-related research, 35 percent had used the Internet in 2000, and 60 percent in 2007.3 According to a survey conducted by Forrester Research Inc., total retail online spending in general merchandise will reach $151.3 billion by 2010, up from $75.7 billion in 2004. Those numbers exclude online ticket sales projected by Forrester at $9.4 billion in 2010, up from $4.3 billion in 2004. Further, the report projects additional online sales of about $155.5 billion in 2010 from the combined category of automobiles and auto parts, food and beverages and travel, up from $65.6 billion for the category in 2004. Shopping on the Internet during the holiday season has come a long way since late 90s. Sales at ecommerce sites for retail spending in 2006 reached $102.1 billion, a 24 percent increase over 2005 sales. The holiday shopping season (November 1 through December 31) brought in $24.6 billion, up 26 percent from 2005. The e-commerce spending summary for the period between 1998 and 2006 is given in Table 7-1. CURRENT TRENDS IN WEB USAGE 152 National trends of Internet usage have increased with improved education, income, and the presence of school-age children at home. According to the U.S. Census Bureau 2009 population survey, 69 percent of American households had access to the Internet at home in 2009, more than quadruple the percentage in 1997. In a report published by Pew Internet and American Life Project in 2005, 68 percent of adults were found to use the Internet, up from 63 percent last year. It further reported that 22 percent of American adults have never used the Internet. Advertisers are taking advantage of increased Internet use, with Internet advertising revenue at $26 billion in 2010, more than triple the amount from five years ago. The Census report found that in 2008, 78 percent CURRENT TRENDS IN WEB USAGE TABLE 7-1 E-Commerce Spending Summary, 2000–2011 Retail Sales (millions of dollars) Total E-Commerce E-Commerce as a Percent of Total 2011 3,123,715 141,727 4.5% 2010 3,887,725 166,513 4.3% 2009 3,639,467 144,462 4.0% 2008 3,945,364 142,508 3.6% 2007 4,008,096 137,564 3.4% 2006 3,885,877 114,341 2.9% 2005 3,693,913 92,505 2.5% 2004 3,467,850 73,920 2.1% 2003 3,266,790 57,931 1.8% 2002 3,135,269 45,007 1.4% 2001 3,067,965 34,448 1.1% 2000 2,984,979 27,574 0.9% SOURCE: Compiled from Annual Retail Trade Surveys, U.S. Census Bureau of adult Internet users purchased products or services online, up from 2 percent in 1997.4 As more customers rely on the Internet for their daily transactions, analysis of this becomes essential for businesses in order to determine the profile of customers, customer lifetime value and effectiveness of promotional campaigns, among others. The Internet usage today is witnessing a change among the older users. eMarketer estimates that in 2005 there are 33.2 million people online in the United States between the ages of 50 and 64, triple the number of 65 online users.5 While a majority of the e-commerce market is yet to design senior-specific sites, some pharmaceutical and financial sites have developed websites usable by everyone and particularly catering to older people. Pfizer Inc. has websites that are specifically designed to aid older people by providing information on senior citizen products. Financial companies like Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab Corp. have also incorporated usability features for seniors on its websites.6 The prominence of the Internet is being increasingly witnessed in developing countries as well. According to Internet World Stats, North America is home to about 13 percent of world Internet users, with a penetration rate of 78.3 percent. However, it recorded the lowest usage growth of 151.7 percent between 2000 and 2010. During the same period, the highest usage growth of 2,527 percent was registered in Africa. The Middle East was second, recording over 1987 percent growth. The Latin America/Caribbean region was in third place with 1037 percent growth.7 Language too plays an important role in Internet usage. According to a report published by Global Reach in 2002, Internet users by native speakers were found to be English—26.8 percent, Chinese—24.2 percent, Japanese—9.7 percent, Spanish—7.2 percent, German—6.7 percent, Korean—4.5 percent, Italian—3.8 percent, French—3.5 percent, Portuguese—3.0 percent, Russian—2.9 percent, Dutch—2.0 percent.8 With such a wide variety of users taking to the Internet, marketers are incorporating language selections in their home pages to cater to all speakers. It is quite evident that as the Web usage continues to grow, it provides marketers with a whole variety of options in terms of reaching a wider audience and better exposure to the products or services that are offered. In this context, monitoring Web usage assists Web developers in developing a website that is accessible to a larger population. The Internet offers real advantages to all firms, including small ones. Since the cost of constructing a website is reasonably low, a firm with less than a million dollars in sales is as accessible to potential customers worldwide as Nestle or French Telecom. The Internet can “level the playing field” for marketing to potential customers through efficient use of the medium. Examples abound of companies that have made it big through the use of the Internet. According to research conducted 153 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET by Forrester Research, e-commerce transactions in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 are expected to reach $198 billion, $228 billion, $258 billion, $288 billion, and $316 billion, respectively. The estimates include travel, typically the biggest e-commerce sales driver. It further estimates that by 2010, e-commerce will have a 14 percent compounded annual growth rate over six years. Excluding travel, e-commerce was expected to grow 14 percent in 2005 from 2004.9 WWW INFORMATION FOR MARKETING DECISIONS Online Advertisements With technological advancements and the rapid spread of the World Wide Web, advertising online provides instant access to the fastest growing media audience in the world. Online advertising provides an interactive element like no other traditional advertising medium. The origins of online advertising can be found in the banner advertisements first featured in the early 1990s. The forms of advertising soon expanded to opt-in e-mails, search engine advertising, floating animated pages, and audio and video streams among others. Since online advertising provides an interactive element, it enables advertisers to develop a one-to-one relationship with prospective and existing clients. With the advertisements carrying links to the advertiser’s website, measurement and tracking of advertisements become easier. The top five companies ranked by Sponsored Link Impressions in August 2008 are listed in Table 7.2. One of the popular methods of online advertising is Search Engine Advertising. According to a research conducted in January 2005 by Pew Internet & American Life Project, nearly 87 percent of the viewers have had successful search experiences. It further says that 84 percent of Americans who are online have used search engines, and, on any given day, 56 percent of people online are using them.10 With search sites becoming popular, search engine advertising can help advertisers reach their target audience in more ways than one. This type of advertising involves advertising on the Web by tracking keyword searches. In other words, when a viewer is searching for information on the Internet, the keywords used for the searches would lead the viewer to the advertiser’s website, amid other search results. For this to be effective, the target audience must be properly identified and the keyword phrases used for searching must be placed strategically on the website. Advertising in local media sources can be an effective way to overcome the targeting issue. According to the research report “What Local Web Sites Earn: 2005 Survey” by Borrell Associates, TABLE 7-2 Top Companies by Sponsored Link Impression as of May 2009 Company Impressions (in millions) InterActiveCorp 768.4 Research In Motion Ltd. 662.2 eBay Inc. 625.6 Yahoo Inc. 451.3 Amazon.com Inc. 363.9 Bank of America Corp. 319.8 Infospace Inc. 281.7 e-Unity Corp. 249.0 Target Corp. 238.4 SOURCE: http://searchenginewatch.com/article/2048728/Advertising-Placements-by-Industry-and-Top-Sponsored-Links-March-2009 154 WWW INFORMATION FOR MARKETING DECISIONS TABLE 7-3 Projected U.S. Local Online Ad Spending, 2003–2005 Spending Rank 2004 2005 Local Online Ad Spending (in $ millions) District Metropolitan Area 2003 2004 2005 1 1 New York City $137.15 $184.09 $240.49 2 2 Los Angeles $ 85.90 $106.67 $141.32 3 3 Chicago $ 59.29 $ 76.38 $100.58 7 4 Washington, D.C. $ 45.69 $ 54.09 $ 91.83 5 5 Philadelphia $ 52.78 $ 69.17 $ 91.03 SOURCE: Borrell Associates Inc., 2005 and Ad Audit Services, 2005. Adapted with permission from Sean Michael Kerner, “Online Ad Spend Swells,” clickz.com, April 1, 2005, http://www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1707269/online-ad-spend-swells local online spending is expected to hit $3.9 billion in 2005, an increase of 46 percent from 2004.11 Table 7-3 lists the top five metro areas for local online spending. The survey listed newspapercontrolled websites as the leading category for online advertisement revenue in 2004, accounting for $1.19 billion; about 44 percent of all local online advertising spending. Internet pure-plays such as AutoTrader.com, Monster.com, and HouseValues.com accounted for 40 percent of online advertising spending. The remaining 16 percent was split between yellow pages/interactive directories (6 percent), paid search companies (5 percent), TV stations (4 percent), and radio stations (1 percent). The report attributed the low share of radio stations as compared to television stations in online advertisements to increasing use of broadband and MP3 players. The growth of these players has given rise to nontraditional ways of audio broadcasting. However, the reporters appeared hopeful that television and radio stations will catch up through new revenue streams. A relatively new online advertising option is contextual advertising. This form of advertising goes one step further from search engine advertising. A contextual advertisement is similar to the advertisement that is displayed at the top of search results, but is instead displayed on the content page that contains the relevant material.12 For instance, social-networking Web site Facebook Inc. is working on a new advertising system that would let marketers target users with ads based on the information people reveal on the site about themselves. Eventually, it hopes to refine the system to allow it to predict what products and services users might be interested in even before they have specifically mentioned an area.13 In certain cases, participating content sites achieve high search engine rankings. Limiting the advertisements to these sites may not be guarantee maximum viewership. This is because, searchers may not click these search result sites. Hence, advertising in sites that fit the context of keyword may not only bring in more viewers but will also capture those who do not visit through a search engine. Online Tracking Measurements An average consumer through exposure to online advertisements consumes enough to call for study and monitoring. A true measurement of an advertisement’s performance is thus essential for creating and retaining customers. Before the advent of the Internet, researchers relied primarily on telephone surveys to ascertain the advertisement recall rates by interviewing a sample. However, with the penetration of the Internet, online tracking of advertisements has become a viable option. Online tracking is advantageous to researchers in many ways. First, Internet tracking offers researchers a means to test viewers’ advertisement recognition by providing visual cues, unlike telephone surveys that only provide verbal cues. Second, online tracking yields faster results. This is because everyone in the sample is sent an invitation to fill out the response online. This saves a lot of time and energy as compared to the telephone version. Finally, not only is it now 155 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 7-1 Tracking Flu—The Google Way Ever wondered what happens to all the search words in a search box? Google, a leader in web search, has been tracking such key words and offering search related content apart from the search results. Google has extended this concept and has launched the Google Flu Trends. This new tool (www.google.org/flutrends) from Google allows web users to see the flu activity across the United States. By tracking the search phrases related to “flu symptoms,” Google has been able to detect the regional outbreaks of the flu a week to 10 days before they are reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This tool analyzes the searches as they happen, and creates graphs (both at a state and country level) that, ideally, will show where the flu is spreading. Talking about the tool’s predictive accuracy, Google says it witnessed a spike in the search data related to flu symptoms about two weeks prior to the flu report released by the CDC. Since the CDC relies on the health care providers to provide information related to diseases and their outbreaks, valuable time is lost in data collection efforts. Google on the other hand, collects data as it happens and tracks the flu spread. This tool could help accelerate the response of doctors, hospitals, and public health officials; reduce the spread of the disease; and, potentially, save lives. SOURCE: Miguel Helft, “Google uses web searches to track flu’s spread,” New York Times, November 11, 2008. 156 possible for researchers to know the viewer awareness of advertisement campaigns, they can also determine the degree of awareness of a campaign by comparing segments of the audience. With traditional telephone recall studies, only determining advertisement awareness was possible.14 In order to track online advertisements, new methods are being incorporated by large companies. For instance, Yahoo! and A.C. Nielsen are using a research methodology called Yahoo! Consumer Direct for measuring the impact of online advertisements on off-line retail purchases of consumer products. With the Internet undergoing change frequently, the profile of viewers changes accordingly. While new metrics for tracking online advertisements are being implemented, marketers do not have a “perfect metric” for tracking.15 Thus, marketers will have to recognize the changing consumer profile and develop suitable tracking methods. Marketing Research in Action 7-1 presents a novel use of online tracking practices. Some examples of firms involved in keeping track of online trends which can provide valuable information to companies for marketing decision making include the following. Cyberatlas, a division of I/PRO, compiles and publishes public-domain information about Internet market size, growth, forecast, and demographics. In addition, Cyberatlas provides news on WWW markets such as advertising, finance, and search services, as well as normative data and industry benchmarking studies. The domain name market shows a strong rate of new registrations and a stabilizing base of domain names. According to “The Domain Name Industry Brief, March 2007” published by VeriSign registered domain names have grown to a base of 120 million worldwide across all top-level domains. The total number of domains comprises a 32 percent increase between 2005 and 2006.16 Forrester Research from Cambridge, Massachusetts, offers a service called New Media Research. One component of this project is Media & Technology Strategies, which focuses on new business media models for publishers, broadcasters, and information service providers. Research topics include, for example, how information will be priced in the electronic marketplace. This is critical information for corporations which do heavy advertising on the Web (such as IBM or Netscape), because they want an adequate return on their advertising spending. Many different proposals have been made for pricing ads on the Internet. Forrester found out that advertisers complain about pricing schemes based on cost per thousand and would rather see click-through (based on the number of clicks for the ads) pricing. Table 7-4 shows the top Web advertisers of 2009 and 2010. Global online advertising expenditures in 2004 were $769.2 million; up from $654.6 in 2002.17 The advantages of advertising on the Internet cannot be understated. First, a targeted audience can be reached. Many websites request personal information about the visitor, which can be used not WWW INFORMATION FOR MARKETING DECISIONS TABLE 7-4 Internet Ad Revenues by Major Industry Category, 2009 vs 2010 20% Retail 21% 2009 2010 16% Telecom 13% 12% Financial Services 12% 11% Auto 11% 10% Computing Products 8% 6% Consumer Packaged Goods 7% 6% Leisure Travel 7% Pharma & Healthcare 4% 5% Media 4% 4% Entertainment 4% 4% SOURCE: http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2011/08/worldwide-internet-advertising-to-reach.html *% of total only to define the site’s audience but also to produce customized ads to be shown on the next visit. Many sites are, in fact, a mechanism for delivering an audience rather than selling a product or a service. Second, Internet advertising is very much like direct-response advertising in that customers can link directly to an advertiser’s home page and request information, browse a catalog, buy a product, or order a service. One problem in Web advertising is audience measurement. A firm would like to measure “eyeballs,” that is, how many total exposures an ad receives. However, on a given site visit, customers often go back and forth rapidly between hypertext pages. Measuring the number of times a particular page is on the screen may not be the appropriate measure of exposure, as the screen time may have been very brief. A minimum amount of time might be necessary before it can count as a “hit.” Or the viewer may not scroll all the way down the screen. These issues confront the large number of companies interested in measuring site audiences.18 To address these problems, some new services are being developed. AdCount by NetCount is a tracking service of Web users that attempts to measure the effect of Web ads. It promises not only to monitor how many Web cruisers see an ad but whether they click on it to be connected to the advertiser’s own website. Such “clickthrough” rates are the true measure of whether an ad placement had an effect. For this 157 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET purpose, special software is installed on the host computer. The software sends frequent updates of ad activity on the sites to a central computer from which the reports are generated. These reports usually comprise daily and weekly totals of ad impressions and click-throughs, daily and weekly totals of ad transfers (clicks on ads which successfully deliver the user to the advertiser’s website), and advertiser summary reports with comparable statistics on each ad tracked. Some good examples of how companies are using the Internet and the World Wide Web are the following (source: World Wide Web): The Ford Motor Company is now offering an online store that allows users to buy cars of their choice online. Users can select the brand, model, and the features for the car. In short, they can build their car online and get the estimated cost. They could apply for a financial loan as well. (www.ford.com) Amazon.com opened its virtual doors in July 1995 with a mission to use the Internet to transform book buying into the fastest, easiest, and most enjoyable shopping experience possible. Today, Amazon.com is the place to find and discover anything you want to buy online. It is the leading online shopping site, with 12 million people in more than 160 countries shopping with them. They have Earth’s Biggest SelectionTM of products, including free electronic greeting cards, online auctions, and millions of books, CDs, videos, DVDs, toys and games, and electronics. (www.amazon.com) MapQuest.com is a leader in Advanced Mapping Solutions. Since 1996, MapQuest.com has been offering the number one website for consumers to get online, interactive maps and driving directions. MapQuest.com is also a leading map and driving directions “enabler” of business websites, corporate intranets, and other software applications. MapQuest. com offers over 30 years of cartographic, digital mapping, and mapping software applications, and, most recently, advertising and Internet experience. During January 1999, MapQuest delivered over 70.3 million maps and over 13.5 million driving directions through its own website and through third-party websites. (www.mapquest.com) eBags is the world’s largest online retailer of bags and accessories for business, sports, and travel. They carry a complete line of premium and popular brands, including Samsonite, JanSport, North Face, Eagle Creek, and Timberland. From backpacks and carry-ons to computer cases and adventure gear, eBags combines the best selection of products with unrivaled services and extremely competitive prices. It is five times larger than most department stores. eBags allows you to browse a huge selection of bags in a large variety of colors. Unlike most stores, eBags offers smaller specialty brands for those looking for something unique. In addition, eBags carries bags in every price range, ensuring that shoppers find the perfect bag at the perfect price. (www.eBags.com) THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH TODAY 158 Over the past few years, online research has become an important mode of quantitative market research. The newsletter Inside Research quotes that online market research spending has increased to an estimated $1.3 billion in 2006 from $253 million in 2000. This meteoric rise in online presence has been largely due to the wide acceptance of the Internet as a source of information. Other factors include the wide presence of Internet and the declining response rates of the telephone/CATI method. While the online mode of research is clearly more cost effective than the traditional modes of research, the quality of online research results is still a topic for debate. The rapid advancement of the online mode has given rise to many market research innovations such as opt-in panels like Harris Interactive and Greenfield Online, self-service survey THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH TODAY TABLE 7-5 Uses for Online Services Activity Buy or make a reservation for travel Rural Internet Users (%) Urban & Suburban Internet Users (%) 51 65 Online banking 34 43 Online classifieds 30 37 Read a blog 21 28 Download screensavers 28 22 Download computer games 25 20 Class for credit 15 11 Fantasy sports 9 7 SOURCE: Pew Internet & American Life Project. Enid Burns, “Rural America Slow to Adopt Broadband,” clickz.com. February 27, 2006, http://www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1705120/rural-america-slow-adopt-broadband#table2 providers such as Zoomerang and SurveyMonkey.19 Like any traditional information resource, the Internet has certain advantages and disadvantages. Besides this, the Internet is characterized by very dynamic technological developments, which in turn influence the information search process. This section looks at a variety of ways the Internet can be utilized for marketing research. Primary Research The Internet is now being used for collecting primary information for use in mainstream marketing, though with caution. The various ways of collecting information are briefly discussed. E-mail Surveys. A familiar example for this is the use of electronic mail for survey research. This technique uses e-mail for the entire process of receiving, completing, and returning questionnaires. This type of survey technique has a number of advantages: ■ Greater speed of delivering electronic mail over regular postal mail. Questionnaires are delivered, or redelivered if lost, in a matter of seconds. ■ Higher speed of delivering responses and feedback. ■ Cost-savings benefits over regular mail surveys. ■ No intermediaries—e-mail messages are usually read only by the recipient. ■ Asynchronous communication. Unlike telephone surveys, messages can be sent, read, and replied to at the convenience of the user. While e-mail survey is an important and effective tool, it is not without its share of problems. Important among the drawbacks of e-mail surveys is spamming or sending unsolicited bulk messages. Spam in e-mail started to become a problem when the Internet was opened up to the general public in the mid-1990s. It grew exponentially over the following years, and today comprises a majority of all the email in the world. A market research firm, Radicati Group Inc. reports that the average number of e-mail messages sent daily in 2010 was around 294 billion, of which 89% are spam. Of these junk messages, nearly 50% were delivered. While mail filtering programs are being developed at a fast pace to curb the spam menace, spammers are finding newer ways to send messages to e-mail users. Some of the less desirable properties of e-mail surveys are that the security of electronic mail is low in comparison to traditional media. Also, even though many researchers guarantee anonymity of participants, respondents may often not answer truthfully for fear that their identity might be revealed somehow. As the population of the Internet and online users increases, new 159 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 7-2 GVU’s WWW User Survey Methodology Unlike most other surveys, GVU’s WWW users’ surveys are conducted on the Web (that is, participants respond to questionnaires posted on the Web). In fact, GVU pioneered the entire field of Web-based surveys. The GVU Center conducts the surveys every six months as a public service to the WWW community. The GVU surveys employ nonprobabilistic sampling. Participants are solicited in the following manner: ■ Announcements on Internet-related newsgroups (for example, comp.infosystems, www.announce, comp.internet.net-happenings, etc.) ■ Banners randomly rotated through high-exposure sites (for example, Yahoo!, CNN, Excite, Webcrawler, etc.) ■ Banners rotated through advertising networks (for example, Double Click) ■ Announcements made to the www-surveying mailing list, a list maintained by GVU’s WWW User Surveys composed of people interested in the surveys ■ Announcements made in the popular media (for example, newspapers, trade magazines, etc.) There are several points to be made here. First, the above methodology has evolved due to the fact there is no broadcast mechanism on the Web that would enable participants to be selected or notified at random. As such, the methodology attempts to propagate the presence of the surveys through diverse media. Second, high-exposure sites capture a significant portion of all WWW user activity as measured by PC-Meter. These sites are specifically targeted to increase the likelihood that the majority of WWW users will have been given an equal opportunity to participate in the surveys. Additionally, content-neutral sites are chosen from the list of most popular sites to reduce the chance of imposing a systematic bias on the results. Finally, the Seventh Survey was the first survey to experiment with the random rotation of banners through advertising networks. The ability of the advertising networks to randomly rotate banners is relatively new, one that did not really exist during the first three years of GVU’s Surveys. This ability goes a long way toward ensuring that members of the WWW community have been selected at random. Since this technique is still quite experimental, its effect on the reliability of the results cannot as yet be determined, though it will continue to be examined in the future research. SOURCE: “GVU’s 10th WWW Survey Results,” http://www.cc.gatech.edu/gvu/user_surveys/survey-1998-10 research issues have arisen concerning the demographics and psychographics of the online user and the opportunities for a product or service. Marketing Research in Action 7-2 gives an example for how a Web survey can be conducted. The key issue is to provide a disclaimer that the firm seeks only composite data, and that names and addresses will not be used for solicitation or sold to another vendor. This kind of survey can also be conducted by announcing it on appropriate lists and groups, and then, in response to a request, sending the survey out via e-mail.20 Interactive Forms. Primary data collection may also be performed through interactive forms which are filled out on the screen. For example, in order to gain specific demographic information and reading habits about Internet users, one company that provides access to newspapers and magazines ran a contest for those willing to fill out an online survey. A news release was put out to the nethappenings mailing list, announcing that the information was being made available on their Gopher. 160 Online Panels. Online panels are an effective way of conducting Internet research whereby groups of people agree to participate in surveys and exchange their views. Companies such as Harris Interactive and Synovate conduct online panels with participants from all over the world. The information collected from the members through these panels is used for developing business and marketing solutions. Apart from being cost effective and fast, online panels provide high-quality data acquired from willing, interested, and motivated participants. As they THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH TODAY provide anonymity and convenience to the panel members, it provides a viable option for themarketers to research sensitive topics. Some of the other advantages of online panels include the possibility of covering a wide audience, the ability to conduct international research from one place, and the viability of electronic monitoring of respondents through log file analyses. The quality of online panels is determined by recruitment, maintenance, and response rate standards.21 The online panel recruitment can be broadly classified into two categories: actively recruited online panels and passively recruited online panels. In case of actively recruited online panels, participants are carefully selected and targeted, either off-line or online. Since this involves a selection procedure, it becomes a closed pool of participants. In passively recruited online panels, participants find their way to register themselves through the various links available on the Internet and in magazines. Since this does not involve any selection procedure, it functions as an open pool of participants. The recruitment of online panel members may also include employees and customers. The point to be noted here is that, recruiting members for the online panel based on the purpose of the online panel would yield better results from the subsequent surveys. The maintenance of online panels is essential in conducting online research. This calls for a continuous monitoring of the panel members. Researchers, while monitoring the existing panel members, must also be on the lookout for new panel members to replace users who have left the panel. The existing panel members may also be replaced with new members because of their familiarity with research methods, which may lead to response bias. The process of recruiting new members is easier in online panels than in off-line panels, as researchers can stay in constant touch with the members and responses can be obtained instantly. Maintaining online panels also calls for communicating with panel members on a regular basis, ensuring the time relevance of collected data and satisfaction of panel members, as this would be a good indicator of panel quality. Response rates perform an important part in online research by indicating the quality of survey research and in determining the cost of the project. When respondents “opt in” to the panel, they bring in a significant amount of information relating to demography and behavior. The information thus collected later helps in deciding the samples. Opt-ins typically lead to higher response rates as the questionnaire can be shorter. This is possible because the researcher would already have the basic information of the panel members and need not spend time and energy on collecting the information again. The response rates also depend on the length of online survey, the amount and type of incentives offered, and the technical equipment available to the respondents. Researchers have to be aware that having e-mail addresses or having a large panel does not translate into a higher response rate. With business problems demanding attention, further limited by time, online panels offer researchers and marketers a way to obtain immediate results from the targeted consumers and at their convenience. Given the higher response rates, online panels are gaining popularity among researchers. When compared to other traditional methods such as telephone and mail studies, The Council for Marketing and Opinion Research reports that cooperation rates for Internet panel studies in 2010 were as high as 65 percent. Online Focus Groups. Online focus groups are conducted entirely online—everything from recruitment and screening (which the recruiter does via e-mail) to moderation of the discussion itself. This method allows researchers to reach target segments more effectively. Online focus groups, while lacking the dynamics of a face-to-face discussion, provide a unique alternative to the traditional method. An online environment allows respondents to interact voluntarily “behind their computer screens,” and therefore encourages them to respond with honest and spontaneous answers. Furthermore, all respondents, extroverted and introverted, get a fair chance to express their views, and “instant messaging” allows the key focus-group players to interact privately with each other. Although online respondents do not “hear” each others’ answers, they can see them. Thanks to “emoticons” (the use of certain keys that, typed in combination, look like facial expressions), cyberspace allows online focus group participants and moderators to express themselves.22 161 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET As the online population increases, the demographics broaden, enabling remote global segments to be reached, something not possible via traditional methods. One of the limitations to online research is that the results cannot be projected to the general population because not everyone has access to a computer, modem, and online service. Another difference between online and traditional qualitative research is that cyberspace is populated by trend leaders. Commonly targeted by marketers, advertisers, and product manufacturers, trend leaders are early adopters who try out new ideas, products, services, and technologies before these innovations reach popularity in the mass market. Companies are increasingly collecting information from their website visitors. Especially for companies which sell over the Web, collecting information about potential customers who have Internet access is critical. This type of data collection can serve a number of purposes: ■ Counting and describing website visitors in order to customize website content to suit their needs ■ Collecting additional information for customer databases, which then may be used by product development, sales, marketing, or service departments ■ Receiving questions or suggestions regarding the use of a product ■ Receiving and answering complaints It is surprising to see how many website visitors are willing to leave personal information (such as address, phone number, e-mail number). In many cases, companies offer a small reward as a token for the complying visitor. For example, upon completing a questionnaire at the Campbell’s Soup website, the company mails a number of coupons for their products to the customer. Other tokens from packaged-goods companies are good for product samples, price drawings, or sweepstakes. I/PRO has launched a service called I/CODE that lets users submit information about themselves once; it then makes the data available to sites participating in the I/CODE scheme. The advantage to the user is being able to skip answering the same questions repeatedly, and I/CODE offers prizes as an incentive to register. Publishers and advertisers pay for the information, and in return can build a database of users and track their behavior. C|NET gathers information about users without asking questions. Its servers can recognize each visitor’s browser and computer type as well as their domain (.com, .edu, .org, etc.). It uses this information to deliver a “banner” (advertising) tailored to different types of users—for example, a Mac warehouse banner for a Mac user, and a PC warehouse ad for a PC user. Return on Investment (ROI) is becoming increasingly popular as a new technology in helping promote direct marketing. ROI tracks the consumers that are surfing online who click on the banner ads. The positive trend for ROI stems from the demand for quantifiable results from business investments made by executives and shareholders. This has resulted in an increasing number of firms to equip themselves with analytic software programs that measure ROI on a real-time basis. A recent report on marketing ROI and ROI measurement trends found that in 2005, 78 percent marketers felt their budgets for marketing analytics was underfunded. In 2006 that percentage had dropped to 64 percent.23 The click-through rates measure the type of consumer response by the amount of clicks produced. In counting returns, ROI becomes a key metric in evaluating the effectiveness of banner ads for some online advertising agencies. The calculation on the return of ad spending to track actual sales, software downloads, or user registration is done in the following way: ■ A banner ad is served to an online viewer, who is tagged with an identification code stored in the browser’s cookie. ■ The user will then click on the ad and is sent to the link promoted by the advertiser. ■ An ad-tracking firm serves a tiny pixel-sized image, which is posted on key pages of the website the advertiser wants to track. Such pages often begin software downloads or are the “thank you” pages that are shown after a consumer makes a purchase. 162 ■ When the user clicks on the key page, identification information stored on the cookie is sent to a central server that tracks the pixel-sized image and the resulting consumer action. THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH TODAY ■ Results logged at the central server are compared with overall investment in advertising to generate return on investment results.24 User Generated Reviews. Listening to customer reviews is becoming an increasing source of vital marketing information. User generated information, especially product and site reviews, can be mined to devise marketing and advertising strategies. A Forrester research recently evaluated more than 4,000 product reviews belonging to the Electronics and Home & Garden categories of Amazon.com and found that (a) 76 percent of people use customer reviews for shopping, (b) 84 percent of product reviews were positive or neutral and, (c) despite negative product reviews consumers understood that not all products or experiences are perfect.25 Many companies have now included a user review web page in their websites. For instance, when CompUSA added a user generated review page along with the product search option, they saw conversion rates rise 60 percent and individual spend rising 50 percent. Similarly, Yahoo! estimates that 40 percent of the online buying population is a product advocate and have an enormous influence on buying habits and online communications patterns. Further, Bazaarvoice, a company that provides online brands with managed solutions to enable, encourage and monitor online customer ratings and reviews found that nearly 77 percent of all customers use reviews and 81 percent of shoppers who spend more than $500 online each month use product reviews when making buying decisions.26 Until recently, consumers were only talking amongst a small group of people. But with the emergence of social media, consumers now have a wider and a more receptive audience. By listening to such responses about product and user experiences, companies can generate a two-way conversation with the consumers and act on the reviews received. Such an exercise will boost loyalty among consumers. Secondary Research The main forte of the Internet is probably its advantages in researching secondary information. As the 2005 Pew Internet & American Life Project pointed out, 73 percent of online adults utilize the Internet for searching or gathering information. Another 67 percent use it for making a purchase. The Internet competes with several other online resources to satisfy the information needs of businesses and consumers. Businesses typically rely on professional databases such as Lexis/Nexis or Knight-Ridder. Consumers most often utilize commercial online services such as America Online or CompuServe. Although the latter also provide Internet access, they represent a comprehensive information resource in themselves. Table 7-6 depicts how the Internet compares against other online information sources. TABLE 7-6 Comparison of Information Sources a Internet (WWW, Usenet) Professional Databases (e.g., Lexis/Nexis) Commercial Online Services (e.g., CompuServe) Speeda Low to high High Low to high Information structure Structure not very good Very well structured Well structured Information scope Very broad Depends on the database, mostly narrow Medium to broad Overall information quality Low to high High to very high Medium to high Search tools Limited, not complete Extensive, accurate Mostly accurate User support Limited Very good Good Cost Low High to very high Medium Depending on modem, server, and database structure. 163 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET The main advantages of the Internet at this point are its very broad scope, covering virtually every topic, and its comparably low cost. These characteristics make it a very appealing medium to use for both consumers and businesses. Also, it is expected that the technical constraints of the Internet, such as low bandwidth, will be gradually resolved in the future, making it less cumbersome to use in terms of downloading times. Finding out information about competitor activities is an important task for businesses. The Internet is a prime tool for this task, since it reduces the time spent and may increase substantially the quality of the information collected. Both product and financial information are probably suited best for competitive tracking. In particular, larger corporations display this information most often in their websites. On the other hand, pricing information might not be amenable to tracking readily, since it is not too common for businesses to display product prices (unless they actually sell over the Internet). Competitive promotion and distribution information is probably the least suited to tracking via the Internet. Information about products or companies can be obtained using search engines on the Web. However, search engines have certain limitations and hence do not guarantee that all relevant information has been obtained. For this purpose, there are providers of custom search services, who search for information for a fee. Custom Search Service A growing number of custom search services are becoming available that offer information tracking and forwarding for a fee. These services range from one-time custom searches to regular news deliveries. It is very common for these services to specialize in a particular area such as global telecommunication or food processing and then offer their search results in a regular electronic newsletter to subscribers. Depending on the service, the charges can be based on usage (one time or for the whole project), time frame (weekly, monthly, yearly), object (document fee, fee per researched publication), amount of text (number of characters), or any combination of these. For example, Dow Jones News/Retrieval Service provides customized business and financial news and information. Its service scans more than 6,000 business publications from around the world, and the user can search 55 million business articles. The user retrieves the headlines of the articles for free and pays $2.95 for each article viewed. Also, the customer can select “topic folders” from a list of 1,200 preconfigured folders tracking information relevant to a user’s particular needs. Agents The use of intelligent agents in monitoring information is increasing rapidly. For illustrative purposes, let us consider a competitive analyst for a TV producer. The analyst needs constant information on the pricing of competitors’ products. An intelligent agent would monitor websites of TV manufacturers and TV retailers, collect price and availability information, and deliver easyto-skim summaries. Agents function in many different ways. Some are available on the Internet and preprogrammed for particular search tasks, such as Bargain Finders. This commercial application will most likely gain tremendous significance in the near future. Other types of agents are a piece of software that is purchased by the user, who then has to specify downloading criteria. Most often searches are scheduled at night so they do not have to wait to download documents. Agent technology is on the verge of entering the mainstream of Web search, and the future is likely to bring many innovations in this area. Leveraging Web Analytics for Marketing 164 With the ever-changing dynamics of the World Wide Web, the relationship between consumers and brands continues to evolve. Consumers are increasingly seeking avenues online to gather THE INTERNET US Dollars (in billions) 70 $57.5 60 MARKETING RESEARCH TODAY $62.0 $52.8 $46.5 50 40 AND $39.5 $32.0 30 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 FIGURE 7-1 U.S. Online Ad Spend 2011–2016 information about brands and to fulfill their need for products and services. As more consumers continue to navigate online to connect with brands and to make purchase decisions, it is only natural that marketers will seek to target them in this online space where time and convenience are on the side of the consumer. For the first time in U.S. history, marketers are projected to spend more on online advertising than on advertising in print magazines and newspapers. As shown in Figure 7-1, online advertising is expected to generate $39.5 billion in sales in 2012—a 23.3 percent increase from 2011—compared to a sum of $33.8 billion on print. Online ad revenues are expected to continue to grow over the next half-decade with total online ad investment projected to hit $62 billion by 2016.27 With online advertising increasing exponentially, marketers are interested in utilizing resources to measure the effectiveness of their online communications in reaching consumers and encouraging interaction with their brands. One such resource used to capture the online behavior of consumers and how people traverse through a site’s content is Google Analytics. What is Google Analytics? Google Analytics is a free website statistics solution that gives rich insights into web traffic and marketing effectiveness. It is the most widely used website statistics service with 60 percent of the 10,000 most popular websites using the service.28 It allows businesses to see a) how people find their site, b) how they navigate through that site, and c) how they ultimately become customers. The tool allows marketers to monitor sales, conversion rates, and site engagement by generating detailed statistics about the visitors to a website. This tool can also track site visitors from all sources including search engines, advertising, emails, and digital links. Google Analytics offers tracking of campaign elements such as email, banner ads, and offline ads to measure reach and effectiveness. The service is integrated with Adwords, an advertising product that offers pay-per-click (PPC) advertising, cost-per-thousand (CPM) advertising, and site-targeted advertising for text, banner, and rich-media ads. Subscribing to Adwords allows businesses to display their ads on Google and its advertising network. Google Analytics can be used to optimize the performance of Adwords by providing post-click data on keywords, search queries, match type, and other ad components. In terms of ecommerce, Google Analytics tracks sales activity and performance from products and services sold online. The tool can trace transactions to campaigns and keywords to show which site content is generating the most revenue. In addition, the tool displays loyalty and latency metrics for purchases on the site. Purchase latency, the number of days between purchase events, can be monitored to increase customer retention and revenues. Google Analytics can create a detailed overview of how often customers in different segments are using the site’s products and services. Additionally, the tool can also be used to track user interaction with websites and applications accessed from a mobile device. Traffic coming from smart phones can be tracked by device or carrier and usage of apps can be tracked in the same way as a website. How do you access it? Access to Google Analytics is easily obtained by signing-up for an account and adding custom Java script provided by Google to each website page to be tracked. 165 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET FIGURE 7-2 Google Analytics Dashboard Known as tracking code, the code collects visitor data and sends it to the Google server. The data is then compiled by Google into a Dashboard with charts and graphs that display an overview of the site’s performance. Figure 7-2 provides a screenshot of a typical Google Analytics Dashboard. The dashboard is customizable to user specifications. When users login to their account, they are able to view visitor activity based on traffic, content, usage, location, ecommerce and other parameters selected by the user. How can it be used for marketing purposes? Google Analytics makes it possible for advertisers, publishers, and website owners to improve their online results. Through this tool, marketers can design targeted ads and strengthen their online marketing activities (such as online campaigns etc). Marketing Research in Action 7-3 shows how Costco Travel used Google Analytics to increase its bottom-line. Some of the marketing implications of using such a tool are described below. Targeting consumers: By tracking the source of web traffic (such as search engine ads, email, referrals, etc.), marketers can better target consumers with marketing messages and ad placement that is customized accordingly. This would eliminate the all too common mass advertising in the online space. One can also create custom segments based on the most profitable groups of customers who visit the website. 166 THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH TODAY MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 7-3 Google Analytics in Action: Real World Implementation Costco Travel is a wholly owned subsidiary of Costco Wholesale Corporation, the third largest retailer in the U.S. with warehouses in seven other countries. Since August 2000, Costco Travel has been providing Costco members with vacation packages, cruises, hotels and car rentals. In September 2008, they launched their online booking engine allowing members to shop and purchase vacation packages over the Internet. In order to maximize performance of the travel site, Costco Travel evaluated multiple web analytics products and chose Google Analytics in order to explore all possible options with the free resource prior to seeking other paid services. The use of web analytics allowed Costco to analyze specific patterns in the behavior of their customers/visitors. Specifically, upon analyzing the landing page and menu bar click patterns, Costco Travel was able to optimize page content which eventually resulted in a large increase in traffic, c1ick-throughs and conversions. As a result, through Google Analytics, online sales grew to over 50 percent of total vacation package sales and conversion rates increased. Thus, Costco was able to leverage its online presence using the Google Analytics tool and thereby improve its bottom-line to a great extent. SOURCE: Adapted from case study, titled ”Costco Uses Google Analytics To Grow Costco Travel, Its Travel Booking Business”, (2010) http://static.googleusercontent.com/external_content/untrusted_dlcp/www.google.com/en/us/analytics/case_studies/case_study_costco_en-US.pdf Manage online advertising: With the ever increasing relevance of online advertising, marketers (through web analytics tools such as Google Analytics) can make informed decisions on search engine advertising decisions (through Google Adwords), webpage banner ad placement and online campaign management. Valuable metrics such as revenue per click, ROI, and margin can be tracked across various campaigns, thereby allowing marketers to manage online campaigns from the dashboard. Figure 7-3 is a screenshot of how managers can manage online campaigns on the Google Analytics dashboard. Marketers can evaluate several campaigns simultaneously against several key variables including visits, impressions, clicks, ROI and margin. Understand regional distribution of visitors: In addition to understanding how visitors navigate through the website, marketers (especially working with MNCs) would be interested to know where their customers/visitors are located. Google Analytics also provides marketers with a mapping tool to describe the regional distribution of visitors (by continent, country, region, state & city) to the website. This information can assist marketers in creating local search advertising or offline ads/promotions in a specific region. International Marketing Research The Internet, as a global medium, increases the scope of communication tremendously. Even though the globe-shrinking experience is already prevalent, the Internet’s ability to communicate FIGURE 7-3 Campaign Tracking in Google Analytics 167 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 7-4 Attracting Online Customers with Samples Putting up and promoting a site is one thing; getting prospective customers to visit is another. Aliments E.D. Foods Inc., based in Pointe Claire, Quebec, Canada, has found an innovative way of achieving this. Many people who shop online often look for free offers, and this is a good way to get them interested in a product. With a budget of just $500, Eiser, the founder of E.D. Foods, crafted a no-frills e-commerce website that takes shoppers from the home page, to the products they want, to the transaction in as few clicks as possible. Eiser decided that getting people to try their soup, gravies, and chilies was the key and offered a free sample of the company’s soup mix to first-time buyers. In 2001 and 2002, E.D. Foods sent out 30,000 free samples to first-time buyers. The promotion helped E.D. Foods garner $500,000 in sales in 2001, and they expected that figure would jump to $750,000 by March 2003. The average number of visitors at the site is about 1,500 a day. According to Eiser, the Web is a funny place. It’s four times the amount of work you think it will be, but when it works, it works really well. SOURCE: “Samples Build Sales for Food Firm Online,” Marketing News, November 25, 2002. across borders will have a dramatic impact. Marketing Research in Action 7-4 discusses how one Web retailer has used a compelling tactic to capture new online consumers. Marketing Research in Action 7-5 gives an illustration on the power of the Internet for international marketing research. Particularly for businesses that are involved in international activities, the collection of intelligence from international resources will become natural. Also, databases such as STAT-USA are available that are built and maintained by U.S. government agencies. These offer information to companies entering the growing international trade market at no cost. Further, the most common Internet language is English. Figures 7-1 and 7-2 give you an idea of the way the World Wide Web has penetrated the entire world and where the major users are located. THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH DEVELOPMENTS The time when one could keep up with the information on the World Wide Web is already ancient history. With the Web growing dramatically, it becomes impossible to track even a small and well-defined segment of the Web. Therefore, the market researcher has even more difficulty finding the information he or she seeks. The purpose of this section is to point out some developments of the Internet which are most likely to happen in the near future and which will affect the way a market researcher utilizes the Web. Intranets Intranets are internal company networks. While corporations are looking for ways and means of communicating to consumers through the World Wide Web, it is apparent that intranets are the building blocks for successful commercial activity. These internal networks start off as ways for employees to connect to company information. Intranets may also incorporate connections to the company’s various suppliers. According to many industry experts, the advent of total commercial integration is fairly close—employees, suppliers, and customers will soon operate in a totally seamless environment. The advantage for an intranet user is that he or she can connect to the Internet easily, whereas Internet users cannot access intranets without appropriate security codes. The utilization of intranets will aid in the communication and distribution of information inside large corporations. This is especially crucial for firms where information and know-how is missioncritical, such as management consultants or software developers. Once information is gathered, it is 168 THE INTERNET AND MARKETING RESEARCH DEVELOPMENTS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 7-5 International Marketing Research on the Internet Reeno, Inc., a chemical company based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, operates worldwide in the area of agricultural inputs such as fertilizer, pesticides, and seeds. In the early 1990s the company developed a new product line of agricultural seeds for improved cotton, rice, and corn varieties. After these products became an initial success in the home market, Reeno saw a tremendous potential for these products in countries such as India and China. These countries have a large and growing population, and they have to satisfy a constantly growing demand for food. Therefore, making agricultural output more efficient is a high priority in these countries. However, Reeno knew from its past operations that introducing a new product in a country with a completely different culture is not an easy task. They felt a need for more information regarding the purchase behavior and decision making of rural farmers in these countries. Reeno’s new line of seeds differed considerably from existing products, but the advantages of the new seed varieties had to be communicated properly. They appointed Innovative Marketing Consultants (IMC), a Houston-based marketing research company, to do this research project. The task for IMC was to conduct secondary research on the agricultural commodity markets in India and China. Also, IMC was to provide a report on decision-making behavior of Indian and Chinese farmers. The Internet was the natural first stop for Dr. Werner, the project supervisor at IMC. He started with a very broad search utilizing a number of different search engines of the World Wide Web, such as Alta Vista and Lycos. The search input was a number of different word combinations, such as “farmer India,” “India cotton,” “corn production China,” or “rural China.” The use of different search engines is important because no single engine indexes the whole WWW. These searches led mostly to an extensive list of documents containing these search terms. Upon reviewing the preliminary results and bookmarking the promising sites, Dr. Werner refined his search terms. After a few hours he already had a fairly good idea regarding which websites contained relevant information. The next step was to examine the short list of promising websites. Here, the real advantages of the Internet came into play, because many of the websites contained hyperlinks to related websites. Because he was dealing with a narrow topic, he found himself several times linked to a website which he had already visited: a true effect of the networked information structure. After half a day of intensive search he had a very good idea of the existing information resources on the Web with respect to his topic, and he had collected an impressive volume of useful information. Among other things, he obtained detailed information on agricultural crop harvests and production areas for both countries for consecutive years from Cornell University in New York. Furthermore, the same resource supplied information on seed and fertilizer imports and exports. In fact, he downloaded a Lotus 123 file that contained all the data so that he could continue working with the file. The Internet archive of The Hindu, India’s national newspaper (Madras), offered all farming-related stories within the last five years. General country information about India and China was abundantly present. A rural sociology discussion list from the University of Kentucky gave him a number of interesting facts about farmers’ practices in developing countries. From Lund University in Sweden he obtained an article written by an agricultural sociologist about farming developments in India. All in all, within less than a day Dr. Werner was able to gather an impressive amount of qualified information on the subject. Even more impressive was the fact that he did this without even leaving his office desk. He collected useful information in a fraction of the time he would have spent in libraries or collecting other secondary resources. Also, he was able to pinpoint his search much more quickly than he used to with printed resources. stored in internal databases so that it can be accessed from any company location in the world. By researching internal databases in the first place, the danger of duplicating information search procedures in separate locations is minimized and therefore the return on information is maximized. For example, IBM maintains a large internal database to which every consultant worldwide has access. When starting on a new project, the associate can research the database to find out if a similar project has been worked on before (by IBM) and what types of information are already available. Thus the Web can become an integral part of the information system of a corporation. “Firewalls” can protect from outside intrusion into the intranet. Sales, marketing, and communication 169 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET The Far-Reaching Web Country United States Number of hosts June 2011 Per 1000 inhab. 428,029,000 1156.8 Japan 63,199,811 495.6 Germany* 30,000,000 365.1 United Kingdom* 26,000,000 422.3 Italy 24,923,735 405.8 France* 24,900,000 385.0 Canada* 24,000,000 707.3 Brazil 22,212,190 116.0 China 17,446,117 13.0 Spain* 17,000,000 364.8 Australia 16,952,338 768.3 India* 16,000,000 13.8 Mexico 14,467,988 131.2 Netherlands 13,596,075 820.2 Russia 12,846,762 90.5 Poland 11,391,453 324.8 South Korea* 10,000,000 206.9 Argentina 8,628,736 215.0 Taiwan 6,405,566 277.1 Switzerland 5,232,713 672.3 Belgium 5,078,171 477.0 Sweden** 4,995,577 641.9 Finland 4,603,476 866.1 Denmark 4,242,576 766.5 South Africa 4,184,815 84.8 Turkey 4,034,284 55.6 Czech Republic 3,988,136 372.5 Portugal 3,558,417 332.3 Norway 3,542,038 729.1 Austria 3,389,616 405.7 Colombia 3,343,134 74.3 Greece 2,995,124 266.0 Thailand 2,980,010 44.0 Hungary 2,890,146 288.1 New Zealand 2,856,312 661.8 Romania 2,715,415 126.3 294.0 Israel 2,185,740 Ukraine 1,778,966 38.8 Chile 1,778,327 105.1 Singapore 1,701,103 341.0 Ireland 1,373,941 304.3 Slovakia 1,363,103 251.3 (continued) FIGURE 7-4 SOURCE: http://www.gandalf.it/data/data1.htm. *Figures for Germany, the UK, France, India, Canada, Spain and South Korea are “arbitrarily but not unreasonably” adjusted to compensate for underestimated hostcount data in this period. **The number for Sweden includes hosts on “.nu” domains as well as “.se”. 170 ISSUES Croatia 1,344,819 Indonesia 1,318,825 5.7 Lithuania 1,189,700 357.4 Bulgaria 909,615 120.0 Serbia 878,950 119.6 Hong Kong 845,018 120.7 Estonia 839,021 626.1 Uruguay 782,426 233.9 849,869,781 65.6 World total AND CONCERNS 301.5 Internet Users in the World Distribution by World Regions—2011 12.0% 10.4% 6.2% 22.1% 3.4% 1.1% Asia 44.8% Europe 22.1% North America 12.0% Lat Am/Caribb 10.4% Africa 6.2% Middle East 3.4% Oceania/Australia 1.1% 44.8% FIGURE 7-4 (continued) SOURCE: Internet World Stats, http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm. applications can combine internal and external information resources smoothly. Recently, networks between two companies have been set up to access information from both firms, and these are termed as “Extranet.” Speed There are a number of promising technologies on the horizon which all have a common objective: to increase the bandwidth of the Internet. The demand for high-speed connections is huge, since more and more large data files such as multimedia applications are sent over the Internet. Backbone operators such as MCI and Sprint are starting to switch to fiber-optic networks which can accommodate transmission of full-screen motion pictures. Marketing researchers will gain tremendously from this development. For example, focus groups can be conducted from remote locations, and participants who are thousands of miles apart can participate effectively. This will allow market researchers to discuss special topics with professionals or researchers who otherwise could not be brought together due to time and travel constraints. Work is currently being done in the area of photonic switching—switching light waves without converting light to electrical energy. This work eventually will enable networks to take the next leap to speeds not even dreamed of today. ISSUES AND CONCERNS Even as the use of the Internet gains rapid momentum worldwide, users and content providers have to be aware of certain issues and concerns that go hand in hand with the various advantages of Web usage. 171 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET 29 Identity Theft As the Internet grows to reach a wider audience, it brings with it the problem of identity theft. According to the Federal Trade Commission, identity theft occurs when a person obtains personal information of others without permission, to commit fraud or other crimes. The type of information prone to theft includes details such as Social Security number (SSN), credit card number, and driver’s license number among others pieces of identification. Victims are left with a tainted reputation and the complicated task of restoring their good names. The Javelin/Better Business Bureau Report, released in January 2005, identifies that in 2004 nearly 9.3 million Americans were victims of identity theft and the cost incurred due to identity theft is estimated at $52.6 billion.30 There are four types of identity theft crime.31 1. Financial ID theft—Here the focus is on the victim’s name and Social Security number. The imposter may apply for telephone service, credit cards, or loans, buy merchandise, and lease cars or apartments. 2. Criminal ID theft—If stopped by law enforcement, the imposter in this case provides the victim’s information over his/her own. Eventually when the warrant for arrest is issued, it is in the name of the person issued the citation—the victim. 3. Identity cloning—In this case the imposter uses the victim’s information to establish a new life. Examples: Illegal aliens, criminals avoiding warrants, and people hiding from abusive situations or becoming a “new person” to leave behind a poor work and financial history. 4. Business or commercial identity theft—Businesses are also victims of identity theft. Typically the perpetrator gets credit cards or checking accounts in the name of the business. The business finds out when unhappy suppliers send collection notices or their business rating score is affected. In addition to conventional methods such as stealing wallets, dumpster diving, or theft of paper mail, imposters also employ sophisticated means like accessing credit report information by impersonating an employer, a family member, or a friend; getting hold of names and SSNs from personnel files in the workplace, “shoulder surfing” in order to capture PIN numbers while waiting at ATM machines and phone booths, and browsing the Internet to identify information by locating public records sites and fee-based information broker sites. Some people even steal personal information through e-mail or phone by posing as legitimate companies and claiming that you have a problem with your account. This practice is known as “phishing” online, or pretexting by phone. In fact, more than 20 percent of all cases involve telecommunications and the Internet. Thus, while several precautions are advised, the key to reduce the risk due to fraud lies in closely guarding personal information, checking online accounts regularly to check for any fraudulent transactions, and monitoring credit history regularly. At the same time, online marketers and researchers have to reassure customers and participants that their personal information will be closely guarded and will not be misused in any way. Privacy Issues32 172 In this digital era, the Internet has become an important part of daily life. An increasing number of everyday activities are now being performed with the help of the Internet. This means that, given the amount of data being exchanged every minute and the dearth of federal laws in the United States governing disclosure of information to website visitors, the issue of online privacy is assuming great significance.33 This affects individuals, companies, and societies as a whole. People would want to maintain their privacy by controlling the information received about them by others. According to Harris Interactive, the number of consumers unconcerned about privacy issues has decreased to 10 percent in 2003 from 22 percent in 1999.34 ISSUES AND CONCERNS TABLE 7-7 Net Users Would Provide Personal Information For: Incentive programs 76% Members-only discounts 73% Giveaways or sweepstakes 62% Coupons 54% SOURCE: Primary Knowledge/Greenfield Online. Adapted with permission from Michael Pastore, “Consumers Fear for Their Online Privacy,” clickz.com, November 1, 1999, http://www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1701261/consumers-fear-their-online-privacy A major cause of concern in dealing with online privacy is about regulating the information collected by companies that involve online transactions. The practice of placing files called “cookies” and Web bugs by online companies in the user’s computer during a visit is quite common. These files capture information during an exchange between client and server. This trail of bread crumbs may then be used to gather personal information about the user without their knowledge. Typically, information such as time spent online, length of visits, type and name of search engine accessed, products purchased, responses to promotions, and the navigation history are collected through these cookies. While privacy issues are preventing some users from shopping online, more experienced Internet users recognize data collection, and have embraced it in some respects. The “e-Customer 2000 Internet Consumer Survey” conducted by Primary Knowledge and Greenfield Online found that online consumers are more accessible to basic data collection requests at websites, and are increasingly willing to share personal information with e-marketers. The results from the study are listed in Table 7-7. Personalization is one of the reasons customers are willing to share their information online. According to the Greenfield study, nearly 71 percent of the respondents have personalized a website, and two-thirds of that group believes personalization is important or very important. Further, consumers are more likely to supply data such as birthday, household composition, or phone numbers when the data are used to create personalized content and pages. Another reason for customer cooperation in sharing personal information is the customer choice of contact. It was found out that when needed to contact, nearly 42 percent prefer to contact the Internet retailer by e-mail and 36 percent prefer a toll-free number. Thus, the response toward online privacy remains divided between users who refrain from shopping online due to privacy concerns and those who do not mind providing their personal information in return for benefits. This is reflected from a survey conducted by ChoiceStream in 2005, which reports that consumer willingness to allow sites to track clicks and purchases was found to be 32 percent, down from 41 percent in 2004. This clearly indicates that while personalization is preferred by most consumers, the privacy fears associated with that continue to grow.35 Between these conflicting groups of consumers are companies who are not really clear about the privacy policies. Hence, to better address this issue, it is essential for companies to develop and manage their customers’ privacy by taking a comprehensive and holistic outlook. The Future of the Internet With wireless connectivity so widespread, the Internet has become an integral part of daily life. This is more so in the developed countries, where broadband adoption and broadband speed provide instant access to the Internet. For example, there are more than a billion users in the Asia/Pacific region, with an Internet penetration rate of over 50 percent as of March 2011. With the rise of the Internet, an increasing number of services are gaining popularity. Communication devices such as cell phones and PDAs are changing the face of Internetenabled devices with the ability to send and receive e-mail and access the Web. Through the 173 CHAPTER 7 MARKETING RESEARCH ON THE INTERNET widespread use of blogs, dramatic changes have happened to the media and publishing world.36 The Internet has also advanced the quality of human life by facilitating cutting edge technology. For instance, Electrolux, best known for its vacuum cleaners, has developed the ScreenFridge.37 It is an Internet icebox that manages the pantry, among other things. It e-mails a shopping list to the local supermarket and coordinates a convenient delivery time according to the schedule. The Internet is thus one of the important sources of information. The speed, reliability, and coverage of information are what make the Internet a fascinating medium. It has grown tremendously from a predominantly communication medium to a much larger and wider application. Its presence can be felt from daily, routine activities to specialized research activities. The Internet also has a flip side to it. The advancement of the Internet has given rise to Internet-based crimes like identity thefts, privacy right violations, cyber stalking, and many more. As soon as one crime is brought under control, another crime, bigger and much larger in size, comes up. Despite the contrasting sides to it, the Internet continues to provide a viable option for information for marketers and consumers alike. Summary The Internet is a worldwide network of computers originally designed by the U.S. government to provide an alternative communications network. Today, the Internet is a network of home and business users, libraries, universities, organizations, and others. The Internet uses a common computer language, and there are numerous communication services (for example, the World Wide Web) available for exploring the Internet. The Internet can level the playing field for marketing to potential customers through efficient use of the medium. Both commercial and academic ventures have explored the characteristics of users of the Internet as well as uses for the Internet. Collection of primary information on the Internet is increasing, as evidenced by the use of e-mail for survey research. Other forms of primary data collection are performed primarily through interactive forms which are filled out on the screen. Online focus groups are conducted entirely online—everything from recruitment and screening to moderation of the discussion itself. Secondary information about products or companies can be obtained using search engines on the Web. The power of the Internet for international marketing research cannot be underestimated. Questions and Problems 1. 2. 3. John Smith has to make an unscheduled trip this coming weekend to New York from his home town, Houston. He searched on the Internet for the lowestprice offering and bought his ticket. Demonstrate the search process that John used to get his ticket. Assume that your family is interested in visiting the NASA Space Center in Houston. They would like to gather more facts about the place before they embark on a trip. How can you assist them in this process? Design a customer satisfaction questionnaire and e-mail it to your friends. Ask them to respond to your survey by filling out the questionnaire and e-mailing it back to you. 174 4. 5. You are hired as an intern in the marketing research department of a chemical plant in the United States. The firm is interested in expanding its worldwide operations and is interested in country-specific information regarding land use for agriculture. How will you obtain this information on the Internet? Pick any company of your choice, and a. Identify its website b. Browse through the website c. List the type of information that is available through the website End Notes 1. Although most of the Internet sites listed in this chapter are current and updated, it is possible that some of them might have been changed or linked with another site. You should go through the search procedure (for example, Net Search in Netscape) for current information on relevant websites or visit http://www.wiley.com for an index of updated links. 2. Enid Burns, “Internet Audience up 10 Percent Worldwide,” March 6, 2007, http://www.clickz. com/clickz/stats/1709218/internet-audiencepercent-worldwide, Retrieved on April 28, 2007. 3. Enid Burns, “E-Commerce Equals Convenience, Risk to Consumers,” February 15, 2008, http://www. clickz.com/clickz/stats/1705925/e-commerceequals-convenience-risk-consumers, Retrieved on January 18, 2007. 4. Deborah Bulkeley, “Utah No. 1 in Homes with Computers,” Saturday, October 29, 2005, http://www. deseretnews.com/article/635157158/Utah-No-1-inhomes-with-computers.html. 5. http://shop.org. 6. Jennifer Saranow, “Memo to Websites: Grow Up!,” The Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2004, p. R.14. 7. Internet World Stats, http://www.internetworld stats.com/stats.htm. 8. Robyn Greenspan, “Media Mixing for the Multicultural Market,” October 23, 2002, http://www. clickz.com/clickz/stats/1707925/media-mixingmulticultural-market. 9. Forrester Research, http://shop.org. 10. Pew Internet & American Life Project, http:// shop.org. 11. Adapted with permission from Sean Michael Kerner, “Online Ad Spend Swells,” April 1, 2005, http://www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1707269/ online-ad-spend-swells. 12. Fredrick Marckini, “Contextual Advertising,” October 6, 2003, http://www.clickz.com/clickz/ stats/1715611/contextual-advertising-part. 13. Vauhini Vara, “Facebook Gets Personal With Ad Targeting Plan,” Wall Street Journal, August 23, 2007. 14. Don Bruzzone and Paul Shellenberg, “Track the Effects of Advertising Better, Faster and Cheaper Online,” July 2000, http://www.quirks.com/articles/ a2000/20000713.aspx?searchID=21438461&sort= 5&pg=1. 15. Rick E. Bruner, “The Decade in Online Advertising— 1994–2004,” April 2005, http://static.googleusercontent. com/external_content/untrusted_dlcp/www.google .com/en/us/doubleclick/pdfs/DoubleClick-042005-The-Decade-in-Online-Advertising.pdf. 16. Enid Burns, “Domain Registration Increased 32 Percent in One Year,” March 8, 2007, http://www.clickz. com/clickz/stats/1710942/domain-registrationincreased-percent-one-year. 17. “Global Online Advertising Expenditures,” Marketing News, July 15, 2005, p. 28. 18. Donald R. Lehman and Russell S. Winer, Product Management, Chicago, IL: Irwin, 1997. 19. Gabriel Gelb, “Online Options Change Biz a Little — and a Lot,” Marketing News, November 1, 2006, pp. 23–24. 20. J. H. Ellsworth and M. V. Ellsworth, The Internet Business Book, New York: John Wiley, 1996. 21. Online Panels, Globalpark, http://www.globalpark. com/market-research/online-panel.html. 22. Marketing Report, July 22, 1996, p. 4. 23. Allison Enright, “Real-time Analytics Boost ROI, Accountability,” Marketing News, October 1, 2006, pp. 20 & 24. 24. Steven Vonder Haar, “ROI Shows Marketers the Money,” Inter@ctive Week, March 22, 1999, Vol. 6, No. 12, p. 35. 25. Brian Kardon, “They’re Saying Nasty Things,” Marketing News, December 15, 2007, pp. 30. 26. Emily Burg, “Leverage User-Generated Content To Boost Brands,” http://www.mediapost.com/ publications/index.cfm?fa=Articles.showArticle &art_aid=56933. Retrieved on September 17, 2008. 27. “Online spending will grow 23.3% to $39.5 billion in 2012,” eMarketer, January 19, 2012, http:// www. emarketer.com/Article.aspx?id=1008783&R= 1008783. 28. “Google Analytics Usage Trends,” BuiltWith, February 12, 2012, http://trends.builtwith.com/analytics/ GoogleAnalytics. 29. http://www.ftc.gov. 30. “How Many Identity Theft Victims Are There?”, September 2003, http://www.privacyrights.org/ ar/idtheftsurveys.htm. 31. http://www.idtheftcenter.org/ 32. Adapted with permission from Michael Pastore, “Consumers Fear for Their Online Privacy,” November 1999, http://www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1701261/ consumers-fear-their-online-privacy. 33. Randall Frost, “Who Is Securing Your Identity Online?” September 2003, http://www.brandchannel. com/features_effect.asp?pf_id=177. 34. Harris Interactive, http://shop.org. 35. Sean Michael Kerner, “Consumers Want Personalization—and Privacy,” August 16, 2005, http:// www.clickz.com/clickz/stats/1716513/consumerswant-personalization-privacy. 36. Susannah Fox, Janna Quitney Anderson, and Lee Rainie, “The Future of the Internet,” Washington, D.C.: Pew Internet & American Life Project, January 9, 2005. 37. http://www.learnthenet.com/index.php/html/ 03future.htm. 175 w ge / aak w. wi l ey om/ c o l le .c CASE 7-1 Caring Children’s Hospital er w Mary Beth, President of Caring Children’s Hospitals (CCH), always looked forward to New Years. New Years were meant for family reunions and holidays for her. But this New Year had something totally different in store for her. The previous year had not been good for the hospital revenues. The number of patients served by the hospital had gone down, and the costs of health care were rising. The balance sheet presented a very sorry picture to her. But there was a glimmer of hope in the gloomy balance sheet. About two years ago, Mary had started a small division within CCH that provided health care for disabled children in their houses. This division resembled a home health-care facility, but Mary was wary about developing this division into a full-fledged home health-care organization within CCH. This division had been doing well for the past two years. It was the only division in CCH with a positive picture in the balance sheet. Mary decided to develop the home health-care division in the hospital to get around the problems facing the hospital’s financial situation. But there were a lot of issues to be addressed, such as the kind of expansion plan to adopt, the kind of services to be provided by the home health-care facility, the kind of insurance plans that the patients would be able to use, and the type of publicity to use. Mary decided to use the services of Innovative Marketing Consultants (IMC), a top-notch local marketing consulting firm, for addressing these issues and suggesting an expansion plan. A meeting was set up with Dr. K, president of IMC, to discuss the issues involved and to explain the details of a home health-care program. Dr. K suggested using the Internet to analyze the scope for a new player in the industry, the trends in the industry, the common modes of payment available, the costs involved per patient, the profit margins possible, and the kinds of diseases requiring home health care. The Internet was selected for secondary data analysis because of its speed and availability of up-to-date information. Dr. K used several search engines available in the Internet, such as Lycos, Infoseek, and AltaVista, to get a wide and varied coverage of the Internet. The information collected from the Internet suggested that the home health-care industry was booming and that pediatric home health care had a significant share in the market. The results also suggested that given a choice, people would prefer to receive the needed care in their homes. Also, the cost involved in serving patients at their houses was significantly less and it was fully covered by Medicare. Home health care was also found to be the fastest growing health-care segment in the nineties. The diagnoses most often referred to home health care were found to be favorable to CCH. These results formed the base for conducting primary research in the market. The use of the Internet allowed Dr. K to analyze a wide range of issues within a short time frame. Questions for Discussion 1. 2. 3. Use the Internet to corroborate the findings of Dr. K. Prepare a report based on the information that you have collected. What are your recommendations to Mary, based on your findings? 176 The case was prepared by V. Kumar and Rajkumar Venkatesan for the purpose of classroom discussion. INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS 8 Learning Objectives ■ Explain the need for qualitative research. ■ Introduce the different types of qualitative research methods. ■ Discuss in-depth interviews, focus-group, and projective techniques in detail. ■ Be familiar with the various observational methods. This chapter shifts the focus from the utilization of already-available secondary data to the collection of primary data for a specific purpose. Seldom is enough known about a marketing problem or situation for the researcher to be able to proceed directly to the design of a structured study that would yield representative and quantifiable results. The type of research one should do is driven by the information needed. Marketing research can use either primary or secondary data, and it can also be either qualitative or quantitative. Qualitative data collection is done to obtain a basic feel for the problem before proceeding to the more analytical portion of the study. A variety of qualitative methods can be used for such exploratory purposes. Specifically, we will discuss individual and group interviews and case studies. The category of qualitative methods includes projective techniques that are used when self-reports are likely to be misleading. Although projective techniques are utilized during exploratory research, they are also used for primary data collection as well. Observational methods are also discussed in this chapter. The observation of ongoing behavior is a widely used exploratory method, as well as an effective way to collect quantitative information when direct questioning is not possible. NEED FOR QUALITATIVE RESEARCH The purpose of qualitative research is to find out what is in a consumer’s mind. It is done in order to access and also get a rough idea about the person’s perspective. It helps the researcher to become oriented to the range and complexity of consumer activity and concerns. Qualitative data are collected to know more about things that cannot be directly observed and measured. Feelings, thoughts, intentions, and behavior that took place in the past are a few examples of those things that can be obtained only through qualitative data collection methods. It is also used to identify likely methodological problems in the study, and to clarify certain issues that were not clear in the problem. Sometimes it may not be possible or desirable to obtain information from respondents by using fully structured or formal methods. Qualitative data collection methods are used in such situations. People may be unwilling to answer some questions when confronted with them directly. Questions that they perceive as invasion of privacy, that 177 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS they think will embarrass them, or that may have a negative impact on their ego or status will not be answered. Examples of such sensitive questions could be: “Are you a compulsive drinker of alcohol? Do you use drugs to relieve stress or anxiety?” Sometimes, accurate answers will not be forthcoming because they are part of the subconscious mind and cannot be tapped into directly. They are disguised from the outer world through the mechanism of ego defenses, such as rationalization. For example, a person may have purchased an expensive sports car to overcome a feeling of inferiority. However, if asked, “Why did you purchase this sports car?” he or she may say, “I got a great deal,” or “My old car was falling apart.” It has been shown that information of this sort can be better obtained from qualitative methods, such as focus-group discussions or projective techniques, than through a formal, structured-survey method of data collection. The basic assumption behind qualitative methods is that an individual’s organization of a relatively unstructured stimulus indicates the person’s basic perceptions of the phenomenon and his or her reaction to it.1 The more unstructured and ambiguous a stimulus is, the more subjects can and will project their emotions, needs, motives, attitudes, and values. The structure of a stimulus is the degree of choice available to the subject. A highly structured stimulus leaves very little choice: The subject has unambiguous choice among clear alternatives. A stimulus of low structure has a wide range of alternative choices. If it is ambiguous, the subjects can “choose” their own interpretations. QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS Collectively, these methods are less structured and more intensive than standardized questionnaire-based interviews. There is a longer, more flexible relationship with the respondent, so the resulting data have more depth and greater richness of context—which also means a greater potential for new insights and perspectives. The numbers of respondents are small and only partially representative of any target population, making them preludes to, but not substitutes for, carefully structured, large-scale field studies. There are three major categories of acceptable uses of qualitative research methods: 1. Exploratory ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Defining problems in more detail. Suggesting hypotheses to be tested in subsequent research. Generating new product or service concepts, problem solutions, lists of product features, and so forth. Getting preliminary reactions to new product concepts. Pretesting structured questionnaires. 2. Orientation ■ Learning the consumer’s vantage point and vocabulary. ■ Educating the researcher to an unfamiliar environment: needs, satisfactions, usage situations, and problems. 3. Clinical ■ Gaining insights into topics that otherwise might be impossible to pursue with structured research methods. The range of possible applications of these methods can be seen from the following examples: 178 1. A telephone equipment supplier wanted to know what features to incorporate in an answering device located in a telephone substation (rather than in the home or office). From several group discussions came ideas for many features such as variable-length messages and accessibility from any telephone. Specific features and price expectations were tested in a subsequent survey. 2. In 2002, the photovoltaic (PV) solar electric system was installed in the state of Oregon. The PV technology uses the sun’s energy to make electricity, unlike a solar hot water system QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS which uses the sun’s energy to heat water. The Oregon Office of Energy was interested to find out about the issues concerned with acquiring a PV resource. For this purpose, individuals who had been directly involved with the PV industry in Oregon were chosen to participate in focus groups. The focus groups concentrated on the delivery, education, and installation of the PV solar electric system in the state. In particular, issues relating to the major barriers as perceived by the industry, the market opportunities, and the requirements to develop a grid-tied PV market in Oregon were discussed. Results from the focus groups revealed the significant difference in opinions about market development for PV systems. The complaints and comments relating to the types of incentives, equipment performance, standards for equipment, and installer guarantees were then used in subsequent decisions such as consumer education, training, and easing the buying process of PV systems for the consumer.2 3. General Motors uses consumer and dealer focus groups,3 as well as extensive questionnaires, to identify the best features of their own and of competitors’ automobiles. These give insight on “world-class” elements they want to meet or exceed. For example, the design of air-filter covers for the GM10 line of cars was inspired by Mazda; the seat adjustment was made by a long bar under each front seat; and electrical fuses were put in the glove box—an idea used by Saab. Among the heaviest users of qualitative data are Japanese firms. They prefer “soft data” collected by managers during visits to dealers and customers, because it gives them a much better feel for a market’s nuances. Talks with dealers who know their customers result in realistic, context-specific information. These talks relate directly to consumer attitudes, or the way the product has been or will be used, rather than being remote from actual behavior.4 If Japanese firms do conduct surveys, they interview only people who have actually experienced the product or service, rather than asking a random sample about general attitudes. When Toyota wanted to learn what Americans preferred in small, imported cars, they asked groups of Volkswagen Beetle owners what they liked and disliked about that particular car. Use of Computers in Qualitative Research Four major perceived constraints have traditionally mitigated the use of qualitative research: 1. 2. 3. 4. Volume of data Complexity of analysis Detail of clarification record Time-consuming nature of the clerical efforts required Computer technology has helped alleviate most of these problems and has helped to increase the use of qualitative research. The role of computer applications in the various tasks of qualitative data analysis is briefly described as follows: Transcribing—Data has to be transcribed into text. A popular program used for qualitative analysis is Hyper TRANSCRIBE (www.researchware.com). Storing—With the use of computer data, storage becomes very easy. It also brings more sophistication in the organization of data. The researcher can access the material quickly and precisely. Coding—Codes have to be assigned by the researcher. Codes are labels assigned to data segments to enable taxonomic organization of the data. Once codes have been assigned, the computer can recall and print out all material belonging to a specific code. Each extracted piece is logged with its source so that the researcher can easily see from where it was extracted. The software can be used for complex, multiple coding. Coding systems can be reused much more easily and researchers can collaborate directly with each other by working in parallel on the data analysis of one text, as some programs (for example, Atlas/Ti and NVivo9 (www.qsrinternational.com) support the concept of multiauthoring for code systems. 179 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS Searching and retrieving—Researchers use not only standard Boolean operations (and, or, not), but also various kinds of more complex search requests. For example, it is possible to request the computer to perform a search such as “produce a list of quotations relating to code ‘acceleration of a car’ as described by single men.” Building relationships—The computer can be used to assist in the complex tasks of building relationships between the data segments as part of the theory development process. In some programs (for example, Atlas/Ti, Infination, and NVivo9), the relationship between data segments can then be visualized as a network with annotated lines linking codes, memos, or quotations. Matrix building—Matrixes are cross-tabulation of variables, codes, or dimensions of the data which help the researcher see how certain elements of the data interact. Many programs (for example, XSIGHT from qsrinternational) feature a special matrix-building function that speeds up this task. Another perceived constraint slowing down the use of qualitative research is the comparatively higher expenses associated with the collection of qualitative data. Individual In-Depth Interviews Individual in-depth interviews are interviews that are conducted face to face with the respondent, in which the subject matter of the interview is explored in detail. There are two basic types of in-depth interviews. They are nondirective and semistructured, and their differences lie in the amount of guidance the interviewer provides. Marketing Research in Action 8-1 explores the reasons why one-on-one in-depth interviews should be considered more often by researchers. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-1 Take a Qualitative Approach to Qualitative Research In-depth interviews are a method that provides more information for less money without many of the limitations focus groups can impose. One-on-one in-depth interviews should be considered more often by researchers for a number of critical reasons: 1. More quality Unlike in focus groups, one-on-one interviews can avoid responses that are influenced by other people. Interviewers may ask respondents directly and find out their personal thoughts on the product; this enhances the quality of information. 2. More quantity Researchers can receive twice the amount of information per respondent in an in-depth interview, where the interviewer speaks at most 20 percent of the time, as in a typical 10-member focus group. 3. More depth In-depth interviews capture all the relevance and salience of the qualitative information of focus groups. Every word the respondent speaks can be taped and transcribed and used in multiple ways. Well-designed surveys can go beyond surface answers and produce a rich database of interviews to produce analyst reports, identify broad themes, and understand the ranges and depths of reactions. 4. More representation In-depth interviews allow a much more representative approach as respondents are carefully selected to represent the marketplace as accurately as possible. 5. More efficiency Participants may be interviewed via a 15- to 45-minute phone conversation. Incentives of food and money used in focus groups are not necessary for in-depth interviews. 6. More value One-on-one interviews can double or triple the number of minutes that the respondent is talking, and that is the true goal of research: understanding your consumers better. For more interesting articles on marketing research visit http://www.marketingpower.com 180 SOURCE: Mark B. Palmerino, “Take a Qualitative Approach to Qualitative Research,” Marketing News, June 7, 1997. QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS Nondirective Interviews. In nondirective interviews the respondent is given maximum freedom to respond, within the bounds of topics of interest to the interviewer. Success depends on (1) establishing a relaxed and sympathetic relationship; (2) the ability to probe in order to clarify and elaborate on interesting responses, without biasing the content of the responses; and (3) the skill of guiding the discussion back to the topic outline when digressions are unfruitful, and (4) always pursuing reasons behind the comments and answers. Such sessions normally are one to two hours long and may be tape recorded (always with the permission of the respondent) for later interpretation. Semistructured or Focused Individual Interviews. In semistructured or focused individual interviews the interviewer attempts to cover a specific list of topics or subareas, and the respondent has less freedom to extend the bounds of the topics. The timing, exact wording, and time allocated to each question area are left to the interviewer’s discretion. This mode of interviewing is especially effective with busy executives, technical experts, and thought leaders. Basic market intelligence, such as trends in technology, market demand, legislation, competitive activity, and similar information are amenable to such interviews. The open structure ensures that unexpected facts or attitudes can be pursued easily. This type of interview is extremely demanding, and much depends on the interviewer’s skill. First, the interviewer must be sufficiently persuasive to get through the shield of secretaries and receptionists around many executives, in order to get an appointment. The major challenge is to establish rapport and credibility in the early moments of the interview, and then maintain that atmosphere. For this, there is no substitute for an informed, authoritative person who can relate to respondents on their own terms. This can be achieved by asking the respondent to react to specific information provided by the interviewer. Care should be taken to avoid threatening questions. A good opener might be, “If you had to pick one critical problem affecting your industry, what would it be?” Cooperation sometimes can be improved by offering a quid pro quo, such as a summary of some of the study findings. A difficult problem with these interviews is the matter of record keeping. Some executives dislike tape recorders, so it may be necessary to use a team of interviewers who alternate between asking questions and note taking. To keep the interview as short as possible, it is usually best to leave behind a structured questionnaire for any specific data that are wanted, and this can sometimes be assigned to staff for answering. Finally, since the appropriate respondents for these studies are often difficult to identify, and may represent many parts of an organization, it is always advisable to ask for recommendations about which other people it might be useful to interview. Individual in-depth interviews are also used in consumer markets to identify key product benefits and trigger creative insights. Three techniques are being widely used now. In the first technique, laddering,5 questioning progresses from product characteristics to user characteristics. A good starting point is with a repertory (sometimes called Kelly’s triad). If the topic were airlines, respondents might be asked to compare one airline in a set of three to the other two: How do airlines A and B differ from C? How do A and C differ from B? And so on. Each attribute, such as “a softer seat,” is then probed to see why it is important to the respondent; then that reason is probed, and so on. The result might be the following kind of dialogue: Interviewer: Respondent: Interviewer: Respondent: Interviewer: Respondent: “Why do you like wide bodies?” “They’re more comfortable.” “Why is that important?” “I can accomplish more.” “Why is that important?” “I will feel good about myself.” Notice that the dialogue has moved from a very tangible aspect of an airline to its contribution to self-esteem. 181 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS The second technique is called hidden-issue questioning. In hidden-issue questioning, the focus is not on socially shared values but rather on personal “sore spots”—not on general lifestyles but on deeply felt personal concerns. The third technique, symbolic analysis, attempts to analyze the symbolic meaning of objects by comparing them with their opposites. For example, the following question could be asked: “What would it be like if you could no longer use airlines?” Responses such as “Without planes, I would have to rely on long-distance calls and letters” may be received. This would suggest that one of the attributes that can be highlighted in an ad campaign for an airline could be face-to-face communication. Sometimes an interviewer may have to go outside his country to interview people or may have to design questionnaires that are to be administered in other parts of the world. Issues that an interviewer commonly faces when interviewing in another culture are described in Marketing Research in Action 8-2.6 MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-2 Qualitative Interviewing in the International Context Evaluation has become an international activity. International and cross-cultural short-term evaluation site visits are much more subject to misinterpretations and miscommunications than traditional, long-term anthropological fieldwork. The data from interviews are words. It is tricky enough to be sure what a person means when using a common language, but words can take on a very different meaning in other cultures. In Sweden, I participated in an international conference discussing policy evaluations. The conference was conducted in English, but I was there for two days, much of the time confused, before I came to understand that their use of the term policy corresponded to my American use of the term program. I interpreted policies, from an American context, to be fairly general directives, often very difficult to evaluate because of their vagueness. In Sweden, however, policies are very specific programs. The situation becomes more precarious when a translator or interpreter must be used because of language differences. Using an interpreter when conducting interviews is fraught with difficulty. Special and very precise training of translators is critical. It is important that questions be asked precisely as you want them asked, and that full and complete answers be translated. Interpreters often want to be helpful by summarizing and explaining responses. This contaminates the interviewee’s actual response with the interpreter’s explanation to such an extent that you can no longer be sure whose perceptions you have—the interpreter’s or the interviewee’s. There are also words and ideas that simply can’t be translated. People who regularly use the language come to know the unique cultural meaning of special terms, but they don’t translate well. One of my favorites from the Caribbean is “liming.” It means something like hanging out, just being, doing nothing—guilt free. In conducting interviews for a program evaluation, a number of participants said they were just “liming” in the program. But that was not meant as a criticism. Liming is a highly desirable state of being, at least to participants. Funders might view the situation differently. The high esteem in which science is held has made it culturally acceptable in Western countries to conduct interviews on virtually any subject in the name of science. Such is not the case worldwide. Evaluation researchers cannot simply presume that they have the right to ask intrusive questions. Many topics may be taboo. I have experienced cultures where it is simply inappropriate to ask questions to a subordinate about a superordinate. Any number of topics may be taboo, or at least indelicate, for strangers—family matters, political views, who owns what, how people came to be in certain positions, and sources of income. There are also different norms governing interactions. I remember with great embarrassment going to an African village to interview the chief. The whole village was assembled. Following a brief welcoming ceremony, I asked if we could begin the interview. I expected a private, one-on-one interview. He expected to perform in front of and involve the whole village. It took me a while to understand this, during which I kept asking to go somewhere else so we could begin the interview. He did not share my concern about preference for privacy. What I expected to be an individual interview soon turned out to be a whole village focus-group interview! In many cultures it is a breach of etiquette for an unknown man to ask to meet alone with a woman. Even a female interviewer may need the permission of a husband, brother, or a parent to interview a village woman. 182 SOURCE: Michael Quinn Patton, Qualitative Evaluation and Research Methods, 2nd ed., Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1990. QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS Telephone depth interviewing and on-line interviewing using software like Skype are starting to gain greater acceptance among consumers and has proven to be more beneficial than focus groups. When information is needed from business decision makers, strategically designed and well-executed phone interviews may well turn out to be more successful than focus groups. For one thing, phone interviews involve less time and expenditure of money. Also, interacting with customers on an individual basis is more likely to elicit more detailed and useful information than in a focus-group setting. Of course, the catch lies in employing experienced and intelligent interviewers who are well briefed about the company, research objectives, and terminology likely to be encountered. These interviewers should also be intelligent enough to sustain the interest of the interviewees and come up with probing, open-ended questions, at the same time taking care to avoid espousing personal judgments. The interviewers should also be well trained to listen and record responses verbatim. Listening has been the hallmark of many successful product managers and CEOs. The idea is to establish a personal rapport with interviewees that encourages them to talk freely and without inhibition. The most important step in phone interviews is capturing the data in a software program that can code and tabulate responses from open-ended questions. This step could also be done manually, but using suitable software enhances credibility by capturing the responses verbatim and also making them available for future use.7 More telephoning is being used in qualitative research because of the following factors as well: The telephone has become a standard medium of communications, clients are more receptive to saving time and therefore money, and studies can be conducted in remote areas that other qualitative methods, such as focus groups, cannot access. Technology is chipping in by helping with the analysis of individual in-depth interviews. Here’s how it works: A topic guide is entered into the computer in advance; the interviewer, with a headset on for comfortable, hands-free interviewing, types answers directly into the program. Comments of any length can be accommodated, wherever they occur, and skip patterns are easily handled. Afterward, a printout shows all responses to each open-ended question, either for the full sample or by subgroup (male/female, age group, heavy users, former subscribers, etc.). Individual interviews and interview summaries of each interview can also be printed out. The program provides frequency counts and averages on the closed ends.8 Focus-Group Discussions A focus-group discussion is the process of obtaining possible ideas or solutions to a marketing problem from a small group of respondents by discussing it. The emphasis in this method is on the results of group interaction when focused on a series of topics a discussion leader introduces. Each participant in a group of five to nine or more persons is encouraged to express views in each topic and to elaborate on or react to the views of the other participants. The objectives are similar to unstructured in-depth interviews, but the moderator plays a more passive role than an interviewer does. In conducting focus groups, it is very important to position focus-group observers by spending time to brief them before the groups start and debrief them afterward. Positioning client observers behind one-way viewing windows can avoid problems of misinterpretation of results in the future, and prepare observers to gain a better understanding of what they will be seeing and hearing. Observers are less prone to assume that the opinions of one or two participants are somehow representative of any group of people other than the focus-group participants themselves. Some of the issues that need to be addressed in the briefing session are 1. Outlining the intended direction of the group 2. Explaining how participants were recruited 3. Reeducating observers on the concepts of random selection, statistical reliability, and projectability of research results.9 The focus-group discussion offers participants more stimulation than an interview; presumably this makes new ideas and meaningful comments more likely.10 Among other advantages, it 183 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS is claimed that discussions often provoke more spontaneity and candor than can be expected in an interview. Some proponents feel that the security of being in a crowd encourages some participants to speak out. Marketing Research in Action 8-3 illustrates two scenarios of focus-group discussion. The following photo shows a typical focus group room. A focus group in progress with researchers observing the group discussion through a one-way mirror. SOURCE: © Marmaduke St. John/Alamy Types of Focus Groups. Focus groups can be classified into three types. Exploratory focus groups are commonly used at the exploratory phase of the market research process to aid in defining the problem precisely. They can also be viewed as pilot testing: Exploratory groups can be used to generate hypotheses for testing or concepts for future research. Clinical focus groups involve qualitative research in its most scientific form. The research is conducted as a scientific endeavor, based on the premise that a person’s true motivations and feelings are subconscious in nature. The moderator probes under the level of the consumer’s consciousness. Obviously, clinical groups require a moderator with expertise in psychology and sociology. Their popularity is less because of the difficulty of validating findings from clinical groups and because unskilled operators sometimes attempt to conduct clinical groups. The reality in the kitchen or supermarket differs drastically from that in most corporate offices. Experiential focus groups allow the researcher to experience the emotional framework in which the product is being used. Thus an experiencing approach represents an opportunity to “experience” a consumer in a natural setting. Carmen Sandoes, marketing manager for the Bronx Zoo, says the nonprofit institution used focus groups to test various appeals to increase the number of zoo visitors. Participants were divided evenly between those who had and had not been to the zoo. They were asked to pick animal concepts—such as “Great Snakes Day” and “Big Bears Week”—which could be used as special-events themes. These themes—promotional tools—would feature exotic snakes for a day or display grizzly and polar bears for a week. Using the focus group helped Sandoes and her staff to find which animals aroused the most interest and to implement their discovery in the form of future special events. There are no hard-and-fast rules for choosing focus groups rather than individual in-depth interviews for qualitative studies. The comparison in Table 8-1 may help you to make the choice.11 184 Key Factors for Focus-Group Success. As a rule, three or four group sessions usually are sufficient. The analyst invariably learns a great deal from the first discussion. The second interview QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-3 A Tale of Two Focus Groups It’s Wednesday evening, and the first focus group of the night at a New Jersey facility is winding up a session paid for by a mid-sized Eastern city that wants nothing more than to become a bonafide tourist destination. This group, composed entirely of people over 50 who already have visited the destination, seems reluctant to have the session end. The city in question is an important site in African-American history, and several well-informed black women are relishing their reminiscences of it. One very animated woman seems pleased that she knows a number of facts that the moderator doesn’t. She mentions that the city is also the site of an annual basketball playoff for African-American colleges. A white man wonders whether people who are not African-American would hesitate to visit the city were it to advertise its connection to that event. A heated discussion breaks out, and the other participants agree that the man is off the mark. After the moderator ends the session—which went 10 minutes past its 90-minute time slot—several of the members of this well-informed group shake hands and say how much they’ve enjoyed meeting each other. Now it’s time for the 6:00–7:30 P.M. session. A decidedly tired-looking group of men and women, all parents between the ages of 30 and 45, plop down in their chairs. Maybe it’s because the participants haven’t had dinner yet, or miss their kids, or had tough days, or intimidate each other, or have lackluster personalities, but this crowd is much less expressive. They also don’t seem as well-informed. Several seem as if they’d probably criticize just about anything on general principle. A mother of two, friendly and eager to please, says she found the city’s history fascinating and she believes others would, too. The man next to her—a naysayer if ever there were one—says he ended up in the city by accident and found nothing much of interest there. Several minutes later, the woman unaccountably switches her mind and says that she doesn’t think the city’s history would interest many people. A heavy atmosphere settles over the room. Everyone looks drained and no one ventures a strong view. Interestingly, given the differences in the two panels, both groups were chosen through random phone surveys conducted by the facility personnel. The panelists were asked their ages, number of children, and familiarity with the city. They also were asked if they had participated in similar sessions. In recent years the industry has been plagued by “focus-group junkies” who show up repeatedly. Recently, annoyed sponsors have begun demanding fresh blood. Both panels were asked to give reactions to eight possible slogans for the city. Surprisingly, both groups chose the same three slogans, each of which underscored the city’s diverse attractions, such as restaurants, shopping, and children’s amusements. The participants’ consensus was that a broad-based pitch would attract the largest number of tourists. Similarly, they rejected several slogans playing up the city’s role in history, concluding that such a focus would be too narrow. Client John Boatwright, who owns a Virginia tourism consulting group called Boatwright & Co., says it is occurrences like very different groups arriving at identical results that give him confidence in focus groups. Clients tend to conclude they are on the right track when such coincidences take place, he says. “If you do four to six groups and get a consensus, you can conclude that if you did exponentially more groups, you would get the same results,” he explains. For more articles from Forecast Magazine visit http://adage.com/section/american-demographics/195. SOURCE: Leslie Wines, “A Tale of Two Focus Groups,” Forecast Magazine, July/August 1995, p. 27. produces much more, but less is new. Usually, by the third or fourth session, much of what is said has been heard before, and there is little to be gained from additional focus groups. Exceptions to this rule occur if there are distinct segments to cover, such as regional differences in tastes, the differences between women working in the home and outside the home, or the differences between married or unmarried women. A focus group is not an easy technique to employ. Further, a poorly conducted or analyzed focus group can yield very misleading results and waste a good deal of money.12 The recruitment costs, payments to participants, space rental, moderation, and analyst fees easily are in the range of $5,000 to $7,500 per focus group for consumer studies.13 Ten tips for running successful focus groups are presented in Marketing Research in Action 8-4. 185 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS TABLE 8-1 Comparison of Focus Groups and Individual In-Depth Interviews Focus Groups Individual In-Depth Interviews Group interactions Group interaction is present. This may stimulate new thoughts from respondents. There is no group interaction. Therefore, stimulation for new ideas from respondents comes from the interviewer. Group/peer pressure Group pressure and stimulation may clarify and challenge thinking. In the absence of group pressure, the thinking of respondents is not challenged. Peer pressure and role playing may occur and may be confusing to interpret. With one respondent, role playing is minimized and there is no peer pressure. Respondent competition Respondents compete with one another for time to talk. There is less time to obtain in-depth details from each participant. The individual is alone with the interviewer and can express thoughts in a noncompetitive environment. There is more time to obtain detailed information. Influence Responses in a group may be “contaminated” by opinions of other group members. With one respondent, there is no potential for influence from other respondents. Subject sensitivity If the subject is sensitive, respondents may be hesitant to talk freely in the presence of several other people. If the subject is sensitive, respondents may be more likely to talk. Interviewer fatigue One interviewer can easily conduct several group sessions on one topic without becoming fatigued or bored. Interviewer fatigue and boredom are problems when many individual interviews are needed and they are conducted by one interviewer. Amount of information A relatively large amount of information can be obtained in a short period of time at relatively modest cost. A large amount of information can be obtained, but it takes time to obtain it and to analyze the results. Thus, costs are relatively high. Stimuli The volume of stimulus materials that can be used is somewhat limited. A fairly large amount of stimulus material can be used. Interviewer schedule It may be difficult to assemble 8 or 10 respondents if they are a difficult type to recruit (such as very busy executives). Individual interviews are easier to schedule. SOURCE: Adapted from Focus Groups: Issues and Approaches (New York: Advertising Research Foundation, 1985). 186 Planning the Agenda. Planning starts by translating the research purpose into a set of managerially relevant questions, which ensures that client and moderator agree on specific objectives before the study begins. From these questions, the group moderator can prepare a discussion guide to serve as a checklist of the specific issues and topics to be covered. However, this list is strictly for general guidance; it is not desirable to read formal questions to the group. An important issue is the order in which the moderator introduces topics. Usually, it is best to proceed from a general discussion to increasingly specific questions, for if the specific issue is addressed first it will influence the general discussion. It is also easier for respondents to relate to a specific issue when it has been preceded by a general discussion. For example, Mother’s Cookies was interested in concept-testing a new fruit-filled cookie, and a proposed introductory promotion involved tickets to a circus performance. The moderator started with a general discussion about snacks and then moved to the use of cookies as snacks and the question of buying versus making cookies. Only after this general discussion was the more specific topic addressed. The set of topics covered may change after each focus-group experience. The moderator and client may decide that a question is not generating useful, nonrepetitive information, and drop QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Ten Tips for Running a Successful Focus Group You can never do too much planning for a focus group. Developing the discussion guide with the topics to be covered is critical. Manage the recruitment process actively to be sure to get the right people in the groups. Don’t prejudge the participants based on physical appearance. The best focus-group moderators bring objectivity and expertise in the process to a project. Achieving research objectives does not guarantee a successful focus-group project. The moderator and the client should coordinate their efforts at all stages of the process for the research to achieve its objectives. Most client organizations conduct more focus groups than are necessary to achieve the research objectives. One of the most important services a moderator can provide is a fast report turnaround. Client observers should be thoroughly briefed about the research objectives before the sessions start. The most valuable service a moderator can provide is objective conclusions based on the interpretation of the research, without regard for what the client wants to hear. SOURCE: Thomas Greenbaum, “10 Tips for Running Successful Focus Groups,” Marketing News, September 14, 1998. it from the remaining focus groups. Or a new, interesting idea may emerge, and reactions to that idea may be sought from subsequent groups.14 Recruitment. When recruiting participants, it is necessary to provide for both similarity and contrast within a group. However, as a rule, it is undesirable to combine participants from different social classes or stages in the life cycle, because of differences in their perceptions, experiences, and verbal skills.15 Within an otherwise homogeneous group, it may be helpful to provide for a spark to be struck occasionally, by introducing contrasting opinions. One way to do this is to include both users and nonusers of the product or service or brand. If the product carries social connotations, however, this mixing up may suppress divergent opinions; for example, buyers of large life insurance policies may believe that nonbuyers are irresponsible. Some moderators believe that having conflicting opinions within a group may invite either a “rational” defense or a “withdrawal” of those who think their opinions are in a minority. One controversial source of participants is the “experienced” panel, whose members have been trained in ways that contribute to the dialogue in the group. Those who oppose this practice feel that “professional” respondents who show up repeatedly are so sensitized by the interview experience that they are no longer representative of the population.16 Although groups of 8 to 12 have become customary, smaller groups may be more productive.17 With 12 panelists, for example, after subtracting the time it takes to warm up (usually about 3 minutes) and the time for the moderator’s questions and probes, the average panelist in a 90-minute focus group has 3 minutes of actual talking time. The experience becomes more like a group survey than an exploration of experiences, feelings, and beliefs. It is also a very expensive form of survey, so cutting group size makes sound economic sense. The Moderator. Effective moderating encourages all participants to discuss their feelings, anxieties, and frustrations as well as the depth of their convictions on issues relevant to the topic, without being biased or pressured by the situation.18 The following are critical moderating skills: ■ Ability to establish rapport quickly by listening carefully, demonstrating a gen-uine interest in each participant’s views, dressing like the participants, and avoiding the use of jargon or sophisticated terminology that may turn off the group. ■ Flexibility, observed by implementing the interview agenda in a way the group finds comfortable. Slavish adherence to an agenda means the discussion loses spontaneity and degenerates into a question-and-answer session. 187 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS ■ Ability to sense when a topic has been exhausted or is becoming threatening, and to know which new topic to introduce to maintain a smooth flow in the discussion. ■ Ability to control group influences to avoid having a dominant individual or subgroup that might suppress the total contribution. Common techniques for conducting successful focus-group interviews include the chain reaction, devil’s advocate, and false termination. In the chain reaction technique, the moderator builds a cumulative effect by encouraging each member of the focus group to comment on a prior idea suggested by someone else in the group, by adding to or expanding on it. When playing devil’s advocate, the moderator expresses extreme viewpoints; this usually provokes reactions from focus-group members and keeps the discussion moving forward in a lively manner. In false termination, the moderator falsely concludes a focus-group interview, thanks group members for participating, and inquires whether there are any final comments. These “final comments” frequently lead to new discussion avenues and often result in the most useful data obtained. Analysis and Interpretation of the Results. Analysis and interpretation of the results is complicated by the wealth of disparate comments usually obtained, which means that any analyst can find something that agrees with his or her view of the problem. A useful report of a group session is one that captures the range of impressions and observations on each topic and interprets them in the light of possible hypotheses for further testing. When reporting comments, it is not sufficient merely to repeat what was said without putting it into a context, so that the implications are more evident. Several features of group interactions must be kept in mind during the analysis. An evaluation of a new concept by a group tends to be conservative; that is, it favors ideas that are easy to explain and not necessarily very new. There are further problems with the order of presentation when several concepts, products, or advertisements are being evaluated. If group participants have been highly critical of one thing, they may compensate by being uncritical of the next. Marketing Research in Action 8-5 discusses Procter and Gamble’s experience with focus groups while developing new products. Trends in Focus Groups. A growing number of focus groups have migrated from the real to the virtual world over the past few years. Given the cheaper costs, speed, and new technologies that will facilitate Web-based communication, the number of virtual focus groups will keep increasing but will never entirely replace their real-world counterparts.19 Marketing Research in Action 8-6 points out the advantages and disadvantages of online versus traditional focus groups. The number of focus groups being conducted is growing at a rapid pace. There may be over 50,000 focus groups conducted annually. The quality of focus groups’ facilities have also become better. Instead of tiny viewing rooms with small oneway mirrors, plush two-tiered observation areas that wrap around the conference room to provide an unobstructed view of MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-5 The Sweet Smell of Success When Procter & Gamble Co. were researching to build a better air freshener, they decided that they would ask the consumers about their “desired scent experience.” Through this exercise, researchers at P&G found out that many people seemed to adjust to a scent after about half an hour and could not smell it anymore. They also learnt that most air-freshener scents do not spread evenly across a room and people felt many scents smell artificial. After considering all these views, P&G developed Febreze Scentstories, a scent “player” that looks like a CD player and plays one of five alternating scents every 30 minutes. Priced at $34.99, the player contained a tiny fan inside that circulated the scent throughout the room. Along with this player, P&G offered five different disks holding a variety of scents with trademarked names. 188 SOURCE: Deborah Ball, Sarah Ellison and Janet Adamy, “Just What You Need!,” The Wall Street Journal—Marketplace, October 28, 2004. QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-6 Online Focus Group An online focus group is very similar to a traditional focus group, but it takes place on the Web rather than in a physical location. The sessions have a moderator, and the participants interact via chatlike interfaces. With technology advancing by the day, researchers are increasingly attracted to online focus groups. They started off just as modified chat rooms, but their capabilities have grown to include access to multiple people, who can view the session as it unfolds. Viewers can even make comments to the moderators without alerting participants. In short, online focus groups have been transformed into sophisticated research environments. Online qualitative research is especially good for some of the following situations: ■ Studies in potentially sensitive or confidential areas where anonymity is essential ■ B2C studies with a widely dispersed (including rural areas) audience ■ Studies where it is not economically feasible to bring respondents together under the same roof because of small numbers involved ■ Studies related to information technology that involve feedbacks on related topics and website evaluations ■ Studies where professionals are involved and time is a constraint (for example, B2B customers) In the situations mentioned above, online focus groups can perform as well as or better than traditional focus groups. But they may not always work best. The following are situations for which online focus groups may not be the best approaches: ■ When capturing body language or facial expressions is vital ■ When you need to show prototypes or three-dimensional models ■ When products need to be handled—that is, when hands-on usage is critical or touching/feeling experience is mandatory ■ When conducting taste-testing, commercial testing, or testing of ads with extensive copy ■ When the client material or the topic is highly confidential Most researchers who have used online focus groups agree that online respondents tend to be more candid and direct. Generally, respondents compose their answers before reading others’ postings and express only their own opinions, avoiding the peer pressure sometimes experienced in traditional groups. Respondents also seem to express their opinions without the tempering sometimes seen in traditional groups. For example, respondents feel more comfortable giving you negative or controversial feedback. SOURCE: Monica Zinchiak, “Online Focus Group FAQs,” Quirk’s Marketing Research Review (www.quirks.com), July 2001. all the respondents are being used. Telephone focus groups have emerged recently. This technique has been developed for respondents who are difficult to recruit, such as doctors. These focus groups use the conference calling facility to conduct the discussion. Marketing Research in Action 8-7 discusses three identifiable periods of qualitative research of women, as they have become increasingly involved in focus groups over the decades. In cities where focus-group facilities are not available, a focus group can be conducted in church basements, in restaurants, and in a variety of hotel meeting rooms. One of the most successful groups was held in what the hotel called its boardroom. This was an elegant room containing a handsome conference table seating 12, with very plush executive-style chairs, deep pile carpeting, and subdued lighting. Through the hotel, valet parking was arranged for the participants, as well as a gourmet meal, a cash honorarium, and (perhaps the most unexpected touch) having all their cars lined up and waiting as the focus group ended. Client reps watched and listened to the group through a video feed to an adjoining meeting room. While this lacked some of the immediacy and intimacy of viewing through a mirror, it still gave the client the sense of being there. And the participants, the CFOs of area hospitals, enthusiastically responded with a 189 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-7 Focus on Women: Three Decades of Qualitative Research There are three identifiable periods for qualitative research of women: 1. The early 1970s—the end of the traditional era ■ Focus groups were done during the day (assuming all women were housewives). ■ Women were paid less than men for attending: $7.50 vs. $10.00. 2. The late 1970s through late 1980s—the discovery of the new working woman ■ Market researchers started including women in studies for “nontraditional” products (for example, air travel, investments, cars). 3. The late 1980s to the present—the end-of-the-century woman ■ Researchers now routinely include women in what previously had been all-male groups. ■ Women hold their own mixed-gender focus groups on such nontraditional categories as technology, financial management, and sports. For more interesting articles on marketing research visit http://www.marketingpower.com SOURCE: Judith Langer, Marketing News, September 14, 1998, p. 21. candid and lively discussion of the key issues.20 Marketing Research in Action 8-8 shows how Internet technology serves the traditional focus group by reducing costs and facilitating greater participation from people. Recently, marketers have begun including creativity, in addition to the principles of marketing science, in the spectrum of focus groups. Creative moderating processes augment questioning, thus better engaging the group’s thinking and concentration and resulting in a more indepth and revealing feedback. Marketing Research in Action 8-9 lists three of the most effective interactive exercises. Another emerging trend is in two-way focus groups.21 This allows one target group to listen to and learn from a related group. In one application, physicians viewed a focus group of arthritis patients discussing the treatment they desired. A focus group of these physicians was then held to determine their reactions. A new focus-group television network called the Focus Vision Network may represent a third trend. Instead of flying from city to city, clients can view the focus groups in their offices. Live focus groups are broadcast by video transmission from a nationwide network of independently owned focus facilities. The cost of this option, of course, is quite high.22 Focus Vision also plans to unveil an international network of focus facilities. Thus, global focus groups will be possible in the near future.23 MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-8 Internet Technology Helps Traditional Focus Groups Focus group, one of marketing’s favorite research tools, has now been made even more attractive and user-friendly. Video-streaming technology now means that focus groups can be observed “live” from one’s desk, while the focus-group technique itself remains unchanged. Participants gather at a location to discuss and talk under the guidance of a group facilitator. However, observers no longer need to be on-site, behind the mirror, to view the proceedings. A camera captures all the action close-up, including facial expressions, and broadcasts the action via video streaming to an unlimited number of viewers who can watch in real time from the comfort of their desktop computers at any time, in any place. Once the focus-group session is complete, the data are saved to a server, where it can be viewed again by the client on demand. Major benefits of the technology are reduced travel costs and an expanded viewing audience. 190 SOURCE: Alf Nucifora, “Internet Revolutionizes Focus Groups,” American City Business Journal, September 2000. QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-9 Effective Interactive Focus-Group Exercises Focus-group interactive exercises are not only instrumental in eliciting in-depth feedback based on the perceptions and emotions of respondents; they are also useful in improving their thinking and concentration. In addition, interactive exercises may uncover issues that respondents had been previously unable to verbalize or had been unaware of. Such exercises must be in line with the research objectives and should be relevant to the respondent base. The following are three effective interactive focus-group exercises: ■ Product sort: This exercise presents the respondents with a sample of products that are to be sorted into groups that make sense to them. They are then asked to give each group a name that describes why those items have been put together. Thus, this exercise provides key insights into the segmentation process through visual simulation and active discussion. ■ Storytelling: Here the moderator describes a scenario (related to the product or brand) and then asks the respondents to tell a story related to that setting. The process of weaving a story around the product or brand reveals the perceived cues, images, and biases of the respondents. This exercise is helpful in understanding the attitudes of the consumer. ■ Sticker allocation: This exercise provides the respondents with a short list of choices, such as product concepts or flavors. They are then asked to assign 10 stickers or purchase coupons according to their preferences. Though the data from this exercise might not be statistically significant, the discussions during the exercise might throw more light onto customer preferences. These dynamic interactive exercises not only stimulate lively discussions but also increase consumer learning. SOURCE: Holly M. O’Neill, “Interactive Exercises Better Engage Groups,” Marketing News, March 3, 2003, p. 55. Using Projective Techniques in Qualitative Research The central feature of all projective techniques is the presentation of an ambiguous, unstructured object, activity, or person that a respondent is asked to interpret and explain.24 The more ambiguous the stimulus, the more respondents have to project themselves into the task, thereby revealing hidden feelings and opinions. These techniques often are used in conjunction with individual nondirective interviews. Projective techniques are used when it is believed that respondents will not or cannot respond meaningfully to direct questions about (1) the reasons for certain behaviors or attitudes, or (2) what the act of buying, owning, or using a product or service means to them. People may be unaware of their own feelings and opinions, unwilling to make admissions that reflect badly on their self-image (in which case they will offer rationalizations or socially acceptable responses), or are too polite to be critical to an interviewer. Originally, projective techniques were used in conjunction with clinical “motivation research” studies. One such study was done on Saran Wrap, a plastic food wrap, when it was first introduced. Because it was very clingy, it was effective in sealing food, but it was also quite difficult to handle. As a result, strong negative attitudes toward the product became evident. To clarify the reasons for this dislike, a series of in-depth, nondirective clinical interviews was conducted. During the 1950s there were many homemakers who disliked or even hated their role of keeping house and cooking. At that time, prior to the resurgence of the women’s movement, there was no acceptable outlet among women for this dislike. It could not be verbalized openly, and many women were too inhibited to admit it to themselves. The study concluded that many homemakers found an outlet for this dislike by transferring it to Saran Wrap. The frustrations they had with the use of the product came to symbolize their frustrations with their role and lifestyle. As a result of the study, the product was made less clingy, and nonkitchen uses were stressed. 191 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS The underlying assumption of the clinical approach is that people often cannot or will not verbalize their true motivations and attitudes. They may be embarrassed to reveal that they dislike cooking. Alternatively, they may have suppressed this dislike and not even be conscious of it.25 They simply may believe that their dislike is caused by the plausible judgment that Saran Wrap is awkward to use. The difficulty with clinical research is that true motivations are seldom clear. Indeed, two different clinical analysts working from different theoretical backgrounds may arrive at totally different interpretations. These problems have brought considerable disrepute to motivation research. At present, this type of research is relegated to a distinctly secondary role; however, projective techniques for asking indirect questions, when direct questions may not provide valid answers, are used more extensively. The following categories of projective techniques will be discussed: (1) word association, (2) completion tests, (3) picture interpretation, (4) thirdperson techniques, (5) role playing, and (6) case studies. Word Association. The word-association technique asks respondents to give the first word or phrase that comes to mind after the researcher presents a word or phrase. The list of items used as stimuli should include a random mix of such neutral items as “chair,” “sky,” and “water,” interspersed with the items of interest, such as “shopping downtown,” “vacationing in Greece,” or “Hamburger Helper.” An interviewer reads the word to the respondents and asks them to mention the first thing that comes to mind. The list is read quickly to avoid allowing time for defense mechanisms to come into play. Responses are analyzed by calculating (1) the frequency with which any word is given as a response, (2) the amount of time that elapses before a response is given, and (3) the number of respondents who do not respond at all to a test word within a reasonable period of time. New products tend to come from existing products; new technologies are applied to make them faster, healthier, less expensive, and easier to use. In fact, many researchers argue that there is no such thing as a really new product “function” because consumer needs are relatively permanent; that is, new engineering solutions or technologies periodically address the same ongoing consumer problems. Many years ago, people cleaned their hair with water; today they do it with some new shampoo technology. Either way, the basic function—cleaning hair—remains unchanged. The role played by marketing research in a really new product development is limited. Consumers simply cannot describe needs for products that do not exist. Fifty years ago, for example, how could marketing researchers have identified the huge demand among drivers for automatic transmissions? Traditional marketing research methods have been largely confined to asking people about problems with current products, watching them use these products, and giving them new prototypes for extended-use tests. Researchers Jeffrey Durgee, Gian Colarelli O’Connor, and Robert Veryzer describe a new method for identifying new consumer or industrial product functions. They asked consumers to rate “mini-concepts,” novel verb-object combinations that describe possible new functions for products. (A new function for a vacuum cleaner, for example, might be “deodorize rug.”) Whether the technology is available to perform these new functions is immaterial. The aim of the mini-concepts method is simply to generate interesting, “really new” function ideas and assess buyer responses. The authors tested the mini-concept method among 30 middle-aged mothers regarding needs and opportunities for new food-related products. Their results indicated latent needs for products that would educate them about food, enhance their enjoyment of food, and enable them to prepare foods that have healing and energizing properties. Using this method, marketing researchers can identify opportunities for really new functions in any product category. Current technologies can then be applied—or new technologies developed— to address and fulfill these needs. Their study describes a new method for addressing this traditional limitation of marketing research. Asking consumers to rate novel verb-object combinations generated a number of interesting really new function ideas and allowed researchers to assess buyer responses. 192 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS Using the method, they elicited potential new functions for food-processing technology. Top scorers included “spend less money on food,” “alert to spoiling food,” “learn more about food,” and “calculate calories of food.”26 The result of a word-association task often is hundreds of words and ideas. To evaluate quantitatively the relative importance of each, a representative set of the target segment can be asked to rate, on a five-point scale, how well the word fits the brand, from “fits extremely well” to “fits not well at all.” It is also useful to conduct the same associative research on competitive brands. When such a scaling task was performed for McDonald’s on words generated from a wordassociation task, the strongest associations were with the words Big Macs, Golden Arches, Ronald, Chicken McNugget, Egg McMuffin, everywhere, familiar, greasy, clean, food, cheap, kids, well-known, French fries, fast, hamburgers, and fat. In the same study, Jack-in-the-Box had much lower associations with the words everywhere, familiar, greasy, and clean, and much higher associations with tacos, variety, fun, and nutritious.27 The word-association technique has also been particularly useful for obtaining reactions to potential brand names. Consumers associate a brand with (1) product attributes, (2) intangibles, (3) customer benefits, (4) relative price, (5) use/application, (6) user/customer, (7) celebrity/ person, (8) lifestyle personality, (9) product class, (10) competitors, and (11) country/geographic area.28 This technique is being used extensively to explore these associations. Word association has also been used to obtain reactions to and opinions about advertising slogans. For example, Bell Telephone found that one theme for advertising, “The System Is the Solution,” triggered negative, “Big Brother is watching you” reactions among some people. Completion Tests. The simplest completion test involves giving a respondent an incomplete and ambiguous sentence, which is to be completed with a phrase. The respondent is encouraged to respond with the first thought that comes to mind. Sentences are usually in the third person (“The average person considers television _____ .” “People drawing unemployment compensation are _____ .”), but may refer directly to the object or activity (“Insurance of all kinds is _____ .”) The completion test can be expanded readily to involve the completion of a story presented as an incomplete narrative or simply as a cartoon. In one such study, people were shown a crude picture of two women shopping in a supermarket, each pushing a shopping cart (Figure 8-1). When told that one woman is purchasing dry soup mix, they were asked to tell a story about her and to FIGURE 8-1 Two women shopping. SOURCE: Courtesy Sidney J. Levy, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona. 193 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS describe what she is saying to the second woman. They were also asked to tell what the second woman is like. Based on this, user profiles for the soup mix were developed.29 Picture Interpretation. The picture interpretation technique is based on the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT). The respondent is shown an ambiguous picture in the form of a line drawing, illustration, or photograph, and asked to describe it. This is a very flexible technique, for the pictures can be adapted readily to many kinds of marketing problems. An example of picture interpretation was a study that showed the respondents two scenes.30 One involved a break after a daytime hike on a mountain; the other showed a small evening barbecue with close friends. During the scene the beer served was either Coors or Lowenbrau. Respondents were asked to project themselves into the scene and indicate, on a five-point scale, the extent to which they would feel “warm,” “friendly,” “healthy,” and “wholesome.” The study was designed to test whether the advertising of Coors and Lowenbrau had established associations with their use-contexts—Coors with hiking, wholesomeness, and health, and Lowenbrau with a barbecue-type setting, friends, and warmth. The results showed that Coors was evaluated higher in the mountain setting and Lowenbrau in the barbecue setting, as expected, but that the other (word) associations were not sensitive (related) to the setting. For example, in the hiking context, Coors was higher on the “warm” and “friendly” dimensions, as well as on “healthy” and “wholesome.” Third-Person Techniques. By asking how friends, neighbors, or the average person would think or react in the situation, the researcher can observe, to some extent, the respondents projecting their own attitudes onto this third person, thus revealing more of their own true feelings. Magazines use this technique to identify which articles to feature on the cover, to stimulate newsstand sales. Direct questioning as to the articles of greatest interest to the respondent tends to be confounded by socially desirable responses. For example, articles on complex issues of foreign affairs are rated highly interesting to the respondent during direct questioning, but are not thought to be of interest to the neighbors. Another variant of this technique provides a shopping list or a description of a person’s activities, and asks respondents to describe the person. The respondents’ attitudes toward the activities or items on the list will be reflected in their descriptions of the person. Usually, two lists are prepared and presented to matched sets of respondents; these could be grocery shopping lists, in which all items are identical except that Nescafe instant coffee on the first list is replaced by Maxwell House (drip grind) coffee on the second list;31 or the contents of a billfold, which differ only in the inclusion of a Bank Americard on one list. Differences in the descriptions attributed to the two lists can reveal the respondents’ underlying attitudes toward the product or activity that is being studied. Role Playing. In role playing, a respondent assumes the role or behavior of another person, such as a salesperson in a store. This person then can be asked to try to sell a product to consumers, who raise objections. The method of coping with objections may reveal the respondents’ attitudes, if they project themselves fully into the role playing without feeling uncomfortable or embarrassed. Another technique with similar expressive objectives is the role rehearsal procedure used as part of a focus-group discussion. The participants in a focus group are encouraged, by offering them an incentive, to alter their behavior pattern in some extreme way. Abelson describes a study in which homemakers were asked to serve chicken to their families three times a week for a year, in return for $15.00 a week and an agreement not to tell the family about the arrangement.32 The reaction of the participants to this offer, as they “rehearsed” the problems and objections they would likely encounter, gave useful insights into their own attitudes toward chicken. This technique is used toward the end of the focus-group session, and when the exercise is finished, respondents must be told that the offer was fictional. 194 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH METHODS Case Studies. A case study, in the research sense, is a comprehensive description and analysis of a single situation. The data for a case study usually are obtained from a series of lengthy, unstructured interviews with a number of people involved in the situation, perhaps combined with available secondary and internal data sources. Case studies are very productive sources of research hypotheses. This approach was used by a food company to suggest the attributes that might characterize successful district sales managers. A successful and an unsuccessful manager from otherwise similar territories (that is, the territories had similar market structure, potential, and competitive situations) were studied closely for two weeks. They were interviewed, observed during sales calls and trips with their salespeople, and given a series of personality tests. The differences were used to develop a series of surveys that were administered to all the managers. In some circumstances a case study may be the only way to understand a complex situation. For example, the decision-making processes in large organizations may be imperfectly understood by a single participant. This problem makes it difficult to understand the sequence of decisions leading to, for example, the choice of a telephone service that customers use to call for reservations or information, or to place purchase orders. A telecommunications manager may be simply a technical consultant on the telephone system for the using company and not know how the system is used in the business. The functional managers in marketing or operations actually may make the decision to offer the service to customers but not know the intricacies of the switching network. To get a picture of the company’s use of the service, all parties must be interviewed. Marketing Research in Action 8-10 makes a case for case studies. Other Projective Techniques. Many other projective techniques have been developed and used in recent years. BBDO Worldwide has developed a trademarked technique called Photo Sort. Consumers express their feelings about brands through a specially developed photo deck showing pictures of different types of people, from business executives to college students. Respondents connect the people with the brands they think they use. Another photo-sort technique called the Pictured Aspirations Technique (PAT) has been created by Grey Advertising. This device attempts to uncover how a product fits into consumers’ aspirations. Consumer drawings MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-10 A Case for Case Studies Which would you rather bet your company’s strategy on: what consumers say or what they do? Surveys, focus groups, and mall intercepts attempt to develop an understanding of customers’ motivations by collecting reactions to researchers’ questions. The major criticism of these methods is that what they gather are mere opinion statements that don’t reveal actual behavior. Instead of gathering poorly considered opinion statements, the case-study approach builds insight into marketing behavior by pursuing—and verifying—the stories behind specific recent purchases in a given product category. It builds the full stories of how 50 supermarket shoppers selected their peanut butter last Tuesday, or how 25 companies replaced their PBX systems last month. Key arguments for the case-study approach are ■ Case studies uncover motivations through demonstrated actions, not through statements of opinions. ■ They’re conducted in the surroundings where a product is bought or used to achieve greater immediacy (and accuracy) of response. ■ They use observation and documentation to stimulate questions and corroborate responses. ■ They access multiple decision makers. ■ They require the talents of “marketing detectives” rather than “census takers.” SOURCE: “Study What People Do, Not What They Say,” Marketing News, January 6, 1992, pp. 15, 32. 195 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-11 Focus-Group Projective Techniques When conducting a focus group, one goal for the moderator is to get to deeper feelings, emotions, and values. Companies are seeking the elements that drive consumers in order to create successful marketing communication programs. The following are some projective techniques that are often used to elicit findings beyond the top-of-mind reactions of focus-group members: ■ Animal exercise: In order to discover their underlying feelings about a product, company, or person, researchers often ask people to think of the item as an animal and have them write down the animal’s name and why they selected it. For example, people may think of a nonprofit organization as a Labrador than as simply a dog because of the animal’s personality traits, such as loyalty, caring, and intelligence. ■ Mindmapping: Researchers often ask respondents to write down all the key words that come to mind when thinking of the central idea and then have them connect the key words in complete sentences. When done within a time limit, this technique can produce results quickly and generate discussion topics for the focus group. ■ Projective drawing: Researchers often ask participants to draw anything they want so as to gather visual insights about their underlying thoughts about an issue. People generally start drawing with a simple figure and then fill in details about that figure’s life, such as name, age, facial features, clothing, and family. Researchers then ask the participants such questions as: What is his daily life? What are the impressions she conveys to people? What does his family think of him? This technique can be used to elicit consumers’ perception of a certain product (such as Miller Lite or Bud Light). ■ Picture sort: Similar to the animal exercise, researchers display pictures that represent a range of emotions. These pictures could be images of animals, people, or landscapes. Participants select the picture that reminds them of the issue and then are asked why they selected that picture and what impression they get from it. ■ Debate session: Researchers can use debates to research products or organizations, especially when they are connected to highly emotional topics such as war or environmental issues. Participants are divided into two groups and assigned one side of the issue. Each group is given a certain amount of time to develop its best arguments. The moderator then has each group appoint a spokesperson but allows any group member to chime in during the debate. In addition, the moderator asks questions, directs the debate, and listens for each group’s key messages to determine their underlying values or feelings about a certain issue. SOURCE: Bill Dalbec, “Stage an Intervention for the Focus Group,” Marketing News, February 2001, p. 46. are used to unlock motivations or express perceptions. Researchers ask consumers to draw what they are feeling or how they perceive an object. An example of how Internet technology is used to elicit the inner feelings, not simply the top-of-mind reactions of consumers, is given in Marketing Research in Action 8-11. Most people make rational, conscious, purchase decisions and can accurately report the reasons for their decisions when asked. However, many decisions appear to result from preconscious drives that can be either expressed or repressed. When a drive is repressed, a consumer may not be able to access the reason for a particular purchase decision. A technique called the implicit model provides a solution to this type of a problem. In one study, a respondent, discussing the brand of interest, had only positive comments regarding the brand. Then a set of animal photographs was presented and the respondent was asked to select the animal that best represented this brand. A very different picture was painted of the brand. The photo chosen was described as a sly, wily, cunning, and even sneaky animal. In other words, this animal was a pretty, nice, neat-looking animal that was really a fairly mean, predatory creature stealing its prey in the night.33 196 OBSERVATIONAL METHODS Limitations of Qualitative Methods Most of the limitations of these qualitative methods stem from the susceptibility of the results to misuse, rather than their inherent shortcomings. There is a great temptation among many managers to accept small-sample exploratory results as sufficient for their purposes, because they are so compelling in their reality. The dangers of accepting the unstructured output of a focus group or a brief series of informal interviews are twofold. First, the results are not necessarily representative of what would be found in the population, and hence cannot be projected. Second, there is typically a great deal of ambiguity in the results. The flexibility that is the hallmark of these methods gives the moderator or interviewer great latitude in directing the questions; similarly, an analyst with a particular point of view may interpret the thoughts and comments selectively to support that view. In view of these pitfalls, these methods should be used strictly for insights into the reality of the consumer perspective and to suggest hypotheses for further research. OBSERVATIONAL METHODS 34 Observational methods provide a researcher with information on current behavior. Too often, this limitation becomes an excuse for not considering observational methods; because many researchers do not use these methods, they may not appreciate their considerable benefits. Nevertheless, there are strong arguments for considering the observation of ongoing behavior as an integral part of the research design. Some of these are the following: ■ Casual observation is an important exploratory method. Managers continually monitor such variables as competitive prices and advertising activity, the length of lines of customers waiting for service, and the trade journals on executives’ desks, to help to identify problems and opportunities. ■ Systematic observation can be a useful supplement to other methods. During a personal interview, the interviewer has the opportunity to note the type, condition, and size of the residence, the respondent’s race, and the type of neighborhood with regard to mixed types and qualities of homes and apartments. Seldom is this data source adequately exploited in surveys. ■ Observation may be the least expensive and most accurate method of collecting purely behavioral data such as in-store traffic patterns or traffic passing a certain point on a highway system. Thus, people’s adherence to pedestrian safety rules before and after a safety campaign can be measured most easily by counting the number of people who cross against the light or outside the crosswalks. ■ Sometimes observation is the only research alternative. This is the case with physiological phenomena or with young children who cannot articulate their preferences or motives. Thus, the Fisher Price Company operates a nursery school in a residential area as a means of fieldtesting potential new toys. Direct Observation Direct observation is frequently used to obtain insights into research behavior and related issues, such as packaging effectiveness. One firm uses an observer, disguised as a shopper, to watch grocery store shoppers approach a product category; to measure how long they spend in the display area, and to see whether they have difficulty finding the product; and whether the package is read, and if so, whether the information seemed hard to find. This kind of direct observation can be highly structured, with a detailed recording form prepared in advance, or very unstructured. When making an unstructured observation, the observer may be sent to mingle with customers in the store and look for activities that suggest service problems. This is a highly subjective task, 197 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS because the observer must select a few things to note and record in varying amounts of detail. This inevitably will draw subjective inferences from the observed behavior. For example, just what was meant by the frown on the face of the shopper waiting at a cash register? Regardless of how the observation is structured, it is desirable that the respondents not be aware of the observer.35 Once conscious of being observed, people may alter their behavior, but in very unpredictable ways. One-way mirrors, disguises, and cameras are some of the common solutions. Care should be taken, however, that there is not an invasion of privacy. Marketing Research in Action 8-12 explains Procter & Gamble’s experience in observational methods in developing new products. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-12 P&G Sweeping up a Market When Procter & Gamble launched its Swiffer mop in 1999, it was introduced as a dry mop to replace the traditional mop and bucket. However, with roughly 75 percent of American homes being covered with carpet, P&G now hopes to push the popular Swiffer mop onto the carpets of American homes, sidelining the traditional vacuum. Following this, studies were conducted to identify the tasks that consumers found unpleasant when it comes to cleaning their homes. For this purpose, visits were made to consumer homes during October 2003 to identify the disagreeable, awkward, or inconvenient issues faced by consumers about cleaning. The study included observing carefully how consumers cleaned the floor, dusted their furniture, and vacuumed the carpet. Even dirt was scattered around the living room rugs to see how consumers dealt with it. The studies threw light on various aspects of cleaning for P&G. Their research showed that three out of every four times a consumer pulled out a vacuum cleaner, it was to tackle a little debris on a small portion of the carpet—things like leaves, grass, and nail clippings that do not require the full force of a traditional vacuum. Further, they noticed that a certain portion of the population was allotting less time to one big weekly cleaning session and instead were cleaning in a piecemeal fashion during the week, in between other errands or tasks. They identified several “compensating behaviors” that consumers adopted in order to tackle the inconvenience of vacuuming. Some left their vacuum cleaner in a corner of the room, always plugged in, to avoid the hassle of putting the machine away and getting it out again. Others bought several vacuums, one for each level of the house, to avoid carrying the machine up and down the stairs. Yet another group simply avoided the task altogether by buying carpets that did not show much dirt. P&G concluded that “the setup and breakdown time” of the traditional vacuum cleaner was one of the things that kept people from cleaning. Based on the results of these studies, P&G planned to launch a cordless carpet sweeper in August 2005. The Swiffer CarpetFlick, their seventh major Swiffer brand extension, is designed to clean up small patches of dirt, grass, and debris spilled on carpets, and keep consumers from dragging out their traditional vacuum cleaners for the small jobs. The new CarpetFlick resembles an old-fashioned manual sweeper, but operates on a different principle. The plastic on the base of the Swiffer CarpetFlick pushes down on crumbs or dirt, and then flicks the particles up through an opening in the sweeper into a cavity that contains a sticky adhesive sheet, where the debris is captured. The adhesive is double-sided, and the bottom side helps pick up fuzz and lint that is not “flicked” into the body. Like other Swiffer products, the adhesive is disposable, and replaceable. The new Swiffer has a tinted orange window through which consumers can see the debris they are collecting. The tinting keeps the refuse from being too visible, but allows people to keep track of how much dirt is stuck to the adhesive sheet. This way, consumers need not have to deal with the “bagful of dirt.” At the same time, as they can see the dirt they are collecting, it provides consumers with a signal that they are getting the floor cleaned. Procter & Gamble hopes the new device can extend the run of the Swiffer brand, which has benefited from consumers who are lazy in their cleaning habits. The “Quick-clean” products have become the fastest-growing category of the $3 billion-plus cleaning-products market. Procter & Gamble estimates the niche, which includes products like the Swiffer, Clorox Co.’s Toilet Wand, and S.C. Johnson & Son Inc.’s Pledge Grab-it, at $800 million, and is growing at about 7 percent a year. Since, most of the products in this category have replacement cleaning elements that can be thrown away once they are dirty, consumers now need not bother about dealing with dirty appliances. They’re also appealing to manufacturers, who can charge a premium for the refills. 198 SOURCE: Adapted with permission from Sarah Ellison, “Studying Messy Habits to Sweep up a Market,” The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2005. OBSERVATIONAL METHODS Contrived Observation Contrived observation can be thought of as behavioral projective tests; that is, the response of people placed in a contrived observation situation will reveal some aspects of their underlying beliefs, attitudes, and motives. Many direct-mail offers of new products or various kinds of books fall into this category, as do tests of variations in shelf space, product flavors, and display locations. The ethics of such offers can be very dubious, as in the example where a manufacturer decides to produce a product only after receiving an acceptable number of orders from a directmail advertisement. A variant of this method uses buying teams, disguised as customers, to find out what happens during the normal interaction between the customer and the retailer, bank, service department, or complaint department. This method has provided useful insights into the discriminatory treatment of minorities by retailers, and the quality of public performance by employees of government agencies, banks, and airlines. One is hard pressed to think of other ways of finding out about the knowledgeability, helpfulness in meeting customers’ needs, and efficiency of the staff. Clouding this picture are some serious, unresolved questions of ethics. Content Analysis Content analysis is an observation technique used to analyze written material into meaningful units, using carefully applied rules.36 It is defined as the objective, systematic, and quantitative description of the manifest content of communication. It includes observation as well as analysis. The unit of analysis may be words, characters, themes, space and time measures, or topics. Analytical categories for classifying the units are developed, and the communication is broken down according to prescribed rules. Marketing research applications involve observing and analyzing the content or message of advertisements, newspaper articles, television and radio programs, and the like. For example, a study hypothesized that because of the growing number of elderly Americans, advertisers would use more elderly models in their promotions. After a content analysis of all the advertisements, the researchers found that the use of elderly people in advertisements has indeed increased. Physical Trace Measures Physical trace measures involve recording the natural “residue” of behavior. These measures are rarely used, because they require a good deal of ingenuity and usually yield a very gross measure. When they work, however, they can be very useful.37 For instance, (1) the consumption of alcohol in a town without liquor stores has been estimated from the number of empty bottles in the garbage;38 (2) an automobile dealer selected radio stations to carry his advertising by observing the most popular dial settings on the radios of cars brought in for servicing; (3) one magazine readership research method employs small glue spots in the gutter of each page spread of a magazine, so broken glue spots are used as evidence of exposure; and (4) a museum gauges the popularity of individual exhibits by measuring the rate of wear on the floor tiles in front of the exhibit and by the number of nose smudges on the glass of the case around the exhibit. The home audit approach to purchase panels (described in Chapter 6) is yet another type of physical trace measure. The auditor describes the inventory in several prespecified categories. This method is not very useful if used on a one-shot basis, for it then requires a very tenuous assumption that possession indicates purchase and usage. However, if the inventory is made over an extended period and supplemented with a record of cartons and wrappers, an indication of the rate of purchase is possible. Empathic Interviewing39 Empathic interviewing is an exploratory form of research that draws from the wisdom of sociology, psychology, market research, and anthropology to help researchers probe beneath 199 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS generalizations and identify the social factors that influence consumer behavior. In understanding how complex decisions and behaviors emerge, empathic interviewing can supplement or replace traditional research methods. Some guidelines in conducting empathic interviews are as follows: 1. 2. 3. 4. Imagine yourself in the person’s situation. Avoid self-referencing. Gently challenge generalizations by asking for specific examples. Ask open-ended, nonleading questions that start with how, what, and why. Humanistic Inquiry Humanistic inquiry is a controversial research method that relies heavily on observation, but is now being used in marketing with increasing frequency.40 The humanistic approach advocates immersing the researcher in the system under study rather than as in the traditional scientific method, in which the researcher is a dispassionate observer. Throughout the immersion process, the humanistic researcher maintains two diaries, or logs. One is a theory construction diary that records in detail the thoughts, premises, hypotheses, and revisions in the researcher’s thinking. The second set of notes the researcher maintains is a methodological log. Detailed and time-sequenced notes are kept on the investigative techniques used during the inquiry, with special attention to biases and distortions a given technique may have introduced. To access whether the interpretation is drawn in a logical and unprejudiced manner from the data gathered and the rationale employed, humanistic inquiry relies on the judgment of an outside auditor or auditors. Marketing Research in Action 8-13 illustrates humanistic inquiry research. Behavior-Recording Devices Various behavior-recording devices have been developed to overcome particular deficiencies in human observers. The most obvious example is the traffic counter, which operates continuously MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-13 Consumption Values and Lifestyles of WASPs The objective of the study was to interpret the consumption values and lifestyles of WASP (White, AngloSaxon, Protestant) consumers. Since this group of consumers is very large, the researcher decided to narrow down his scope geographically to communities along the eastern seaboard. The researcher made field trips to such locales as Richmond, Virginia; Charleston, North Carolina; Connecticut; and Maine. During these trips observations were made in residential neighborhoods, shopping areas, and other places. Whenever the researcher had personal contact in the community, he lived in the local household observing and participating in their daily rounds; attending church services and community meetings; and engaging in shopping activities and meeting and talking with other residents. After every meeting or contact episode, the researcher made a note of the thinking, transformation, and conclusion he made regarding WASPs’ consumption values and lifestyle in his theory construction diary, while he made a note of the happenings, the time and date when a certain event occurred in his methodological log. After 18 months of participating in the WASP lifestyle and meticulous record keeping, a pattern began to emerge. The pattern was formed around the central values that WASP consumers had expressed verbally to the researcher in several contexts and other documentary evidence. The researcher was suddenly able to grasp that the same core values (practicality, conservatism, individual responsibility, self control, etc.) were expressed in all aspects of the consumers’ lifestyle—from clothing and automobile preference to leisure activities. 200 SOURCE: Elizabeth C. Hirschman, “Humanistic Inquiry in Marketing Research: Philosophy Method and Criteria,” Journal of Marketing Research, August 1986, pp. 237–249. OBSERVATIONAL METHODS without getting tired, and consequently is cheaper and probably more accurate than humans. For the same reasons, as well as for unobtrusiveness, cameras may be used in place of human observers. Someone still has to interpret what is recorded on the film, but the options exist of sampling segments of the film, slowing the speed, or having another observer view it for an independent judgment. Of the mechanical devices that do not require respondents’ direct participation, the A.C. Nielsen “people meter” is best known. The people meter is attached to a television set to record continually to which channel the set is tuned. It also records who is watching. Arbitron recently developed a pocket people meter that is no larger than an electronic pager and can recognize the unique code that broadcasters embed in the soundtrack of radio or television programs.41 The latest trend is to develop “passive people meters.” These meters will record an individual’s broadcast viewing and listening without his or her intervention. Mediacheck has introduced one such system. It has two units: a set-top meter that detects audio codes to identify programming being watched or listened to, and a device such as a pendant or a wristwatch worn by the person being measured. The main drawback of this system is that it requires that all programming carry a nonintrusive audio code that can be recorded by the meter system. Nielsen is also developing its own passive people meter. It will recognize a person entering the room and also keep track of the person’s activities while he or she watches TV. Technological advances such as the Universal Product Code (UPC) have had a major impact on mechanical observation. The UPC system, together with optical scanners, allow for mechanical information collection regarding consumer purchases, by product category, brand, store type, price paid, and quantity. Some types of observation are beyond human capabilities. All physiological reactions fall into this category. Therefore, devices are available to measure changes in the rate of perspiration as a guide to emotional response to stimuli (the psychogalvanometer), and changes in the size of the pupils of subjects’ eyes, which are presumed to indicate the degree of interest in the stimulus being viewed (the pupilometer). These devices can be used only in laboratory environments, and often yield ambiguous results. Experience with eye-movement recorders has been more successful. This device records the experience of viewing pictures of advertisements, packages, signs, or shelf displays, at a rate of 30 readings per second. The recorded eye movements show when the subjects starts to view a picture, the order in which the elements of the image were examined and reexamined, and the amount of viewing time given each element. One application is for testing the visual impact of alternative package designs. An example of how technology can help in data collection using eye-movement recorders is provided in Marketing Research in Action 8-14. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-14 Tracking Shoppers Virtually Kimberly-Clark Corp. has developed a new tool that tracks retina movements and records every glance of the consumer. Using the tool virtual shopping aisles was created wherein consumers are requested to shop for products. The shopping behavior was then captured by the devices and the observations are used for understanding consumer behavior. Kimberly-Clark hopes these virtual shopping aisles will help it better understand consumer behavior and make the testing of new products faster, more convenient and more precise. The mobile testing unit is usually based in a new high-tech studio that Kimberly-Clark completed in May 2007 in Appleton, Wisconsin. The room also features a U-shaped floor-to-ceiling screen that re-creates in vivid detail interiors of the big retailers that sell the company's products—a tool that the company will use in presentations to executives in bids to win shelf space. A separate area is reserved for real replicas of store interiors, which can be customized to match the flooring, light fixtures and shelves of retailers such as Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Kimberly-Clark uses the data from its virtual-reality tests with consumers to tout how products in development perform. SOURCE: Ellen Byron, “A Virtual View of the Store Aisle,” Wall Street Journal, October 3, 2007. 201 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-15 New Technology Collects Media Behavior Data Systems for measuring radio and TV audiences haven’t improved much over the past few decades. Audiences are measured by small, representative panels. TV panels use set-top boxes. Radio panelists are asked to record listening habits in a diary. Researchers use highly refined methods to create a small sample of individuals whose behaviors and attitudes represent everyone. The problem is understanding the media habits of the panel members: to accurately determine what they watch and listen to, when, and for how long. Germany’s largest market research company, GFK, presented a new technology to measure what TV and radio shows a person watched or listened to by using a wristwatch named Radiocontrol. Several thousand panel members are given watches to wear for two weeks. The watch takes a four-second “fingerprint” of ambient sound every minute. At the end of two weeks, the watch is returned and the sound fingerprint is matched against a database of radio and TV programming to determine exactly what a person watched or listened to. The sample is then projected out to a national audience. The watch is a highly sophisticated instrument, containing a motion detector and a thermostat to determine whether it is worn at any given moment. It’s sleek and stylish but automatically stops telling time after two weeks, which prompts the wearer to return it to the research company. The ability to accurately track people’s real-world behaviors is of tremendous interest to marketers. When this type of technology is married with attitudes and purchase behavior, marketers will have a direct link between what people think and buy and the advertising they’re exposed to. It promises to create enormous advertising efficiencies. SOURCE: Jeffrey Graham, “Tracking Moves Offline,” http://www.clickz.com/clickz/column/1711679/tracking-moves-offline, November 27, 2002. Voice-pitch analysis examines changes in the relative vibration frequency of the human voice to measure emotion.42 In voice analysis, the normal or baseline pitch of an individual’s speaking voice is charted by engaging the subject in an unemotional conversation. The greater the deviation from the baseline, the greater is said to be the emotional intensity of the person’s reaction to a stimulus. For example, voice-pitch analysis has been used in package research, to predict consumer brand preference for dog food.43 An example of how technology can help in data collection through direct link is provided in Marketing Research in Action 8-15. Limitations of Observational Methods The vast majority of research studies use some form of questionnaire. Observation methods, despite their many advantages, have one crucial limitation: They cannot observe motives, attitudes, or intentions, which sharply reduces their diagnostic usefulness. To be sure, these cognitive factors are manifested in the observed behavior, but so are many other confounding factors. For example, the Zippo Lighter Company seemingly has a valuable measure of advertising effectiveness in the volume of its lighters sent in for repair. Despite the mention of the free repair privilege in the advertising, it is questionable whether such a measure can unambiguously test for impact. Observational methods suffer other limitations as well. They are often more costly and timeconsuming, and may yield biased results if there are sampling problems or if significant observer subjectivity is involved. However, these biases usually are very different in character from those that affect obtrusive questionnaire methods. This is one of the underexploited strengths of observation methods: they help to increase our confidence in questionnaire measures if they yield similar results when used as a supplement. RECENT APPLICATIONS OF QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS 202 In recent years many companies, across various industry verticals, have applied qualitative and observational techniques to acquire vital information about marketing problems. Here are a few RECENT APPLICATIONS OF QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 8-16 Bertolli—Now Serving In 2007, Unilever’s Bertolli brand that includes pasta sauces and olive oils, zeroed in on a market segment that did not have their presence—the prepared meals segment consisting of frozen meals. Market research reports identified that with the growth of average work hours by 26 percent in 2006, the frozen meals that Americans eat have increased by 47 percent. A majority (75%) of this $5.7 billion market comprised of single-serve options and about 20 percent of the market was made up of multi-serve frozen entrées and dinner. It was this 20 percent that Bertolli was interested in as this market was growing at an impressive 16 percent between 2003 and 2005. Bertolli had some questions that helped them identify their brand strategy—Is it a big space or a growing space, or both? Do we have a brand that can play and compete in that space? And, if so, what difference can we make? Based on the findings, Bertolli decided to compete in complete meal solutions market and the result was the launch of “Dinner for Two” line of products. Before launching this product line, Bertolli turned to ethnographic research in 2000 to help design meals that would stand out from competitors—that would mark its products as an upscale, luxurious end to a busy day, not just a convenience. They conducted observational studies which had researchers accompanying participating families to grocery stores to observe their shopping habits and, watching them cook and eat frozen meals. This helped them identify areas of complaint and dissatisfaction. They learnt that polybag meals already on the market had mushy pasta and did not taste fresh. Participants also complained that the packaging was unappealing and seemed downscale. Meanwhile, other researchers visited traditional Italian restaurants in and popular Italian chain restaurants to see what kinds of ingredients chefs used in their dishes. With the market research complete, Bertolli then concentrated on the packaging of the meals. Designers placed a photograph of the cooked entrée against a sepia-toned background of the hills of Tuscany. There’s also a glass of wine on the package, meant to underscore the idea that the food inside is on par with a restaurant meal. The efforts paid off for Unilever. Since launching nationwide in January 2005, Bertolli-brand frozen entrees have garnered a 38.6 percent share of the multi-serve polybag market, outperforming both Stouffer’s and Birds Eye. In U.S. grocery stores, Bertolli accounts for eight of the top 11 best-selling polybag dinners, according to AC Nielsen. Meanwhile, the line has become a new growth driver for Unilever with sales rising more than 185 percent, from $70 million in its first year to a projected $200 million plus in 2007. SOURCE: Jeff Borden, “Bertolli’s Big Bite,” Marketing News, October 1, 2007. examples of companies who have adopted these techniques. Marketing Research in Action 8-16 describes a brand that used observational techniques to identify a new market. ■ Maritz Marketing Research, Inc. (St. Louis), says its Virtual Customers system for evaluating service quality goes beyond typical mystery shopping programs because of its integrated approach, customer certification process, and high-tech project management system. Virtual customers (for example, mystery shoppers) receive job-specific training and periodic updates during the certification process, said Al Goldsmith, director of virtual customer research at Maritz. The emphasis on training is needed because “without it, each person would be unlikely to role-play adequately enough to obtain reliable data.” Maritz uses a high-tech project management system to track the skill level and demographic information on each virtual customer. A database shows each person’s shopping performance and other pertinent information to ensure that the right people are assigned to each project. The same system can produce real-time feedback on the status of the project, the number of locations visited, and current ratings compared with ratings of previous visits. ■ On-site observation is an underutilized method that has tremendous potential for helping marketers understand consumers’ thinking. It is as valuable as traditional qualitative techniques 203 CHAPTER 8 INFORMATION COLLECTION: QUALITATIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL METHODS such as focus groups and in-depth interviews. On-site observation gives researchers the chance to observe and learn about consumer purchasing decisions as they are being made. Observing consumer decisions as they choose products from a shelf or casually asking them to explain their preferences can lead to a wealth of qualitative information. The best approach in conducting on-site observation is by placing researchers in a supermarket and letting them present themselves as shoppers who need advice from other shoppers in making a purchasing decision. The shoppers in question will give spontaneous responses on the product that are noteworthy for marketing analysis. A skilled researcher can do about 35 interviews a day in several supermarkets with minimal overhead costs and an excellent yield for qualitative work. It requires individuals who are outgoing and are able to listen—not just hear what people say. A person with these traits can then be taught how to obtain relevant answers, absorb information, evaluate responses, and avoid asking leading questions. Field observations also require tremendous patience, discipline, and enthusiasm.44 Summary Exploratory research is an essential step in the development of a successful research study. In essence, this kind of research is insurance that major elements of the problem or important competing hypotheses will not be overlooked. It further ensures that both the manager and the researcher will see the market through the consumer’s eyes. Fortunately, research design is an iterative and not a sequential process, so major initial oversights are not necessarily irreversible. In particular, the exploratory technique of semistructured interviews should be reemployed later when the structured study is pretested. Properly handled, a pretest should provide opportunities for respondents to express their frustrations with the specific questions, as well as identify deficiencies in the scope of the questions. In this chapter we also discussed observational methods. These are useful during the exploratory stage of the research design but are even more valuable as a data collection method. The advantages of observational methods will become even more apparent in Chapter 9, as we examine the errors that are inherent when an interviewer starts to interact with a respondent. Questions and Problems 1. What are the significant differences between nondirective and semistructured individual interviews? In what circumstances would a nondirective interview be more useful than a semistructured interview? 2. You have conducted two group meetings on the subject of telephone answering devices. In each group there were seven prospective users of such devices, and in the two groups there were four users of telephone answering services. (These services use an operator to intercept calls and record messages.) When the client’s new-product development manager heard the tapes and read the transcripts of the two meetings, the first reaction was, “I knew all along that the features I wanted to add to our existing model would be winners, and these people are just as enthusiastic. Let’s not waste any more research effort on the question of which features are wanted.” What do you say? 204 3. There have been a number of complaints in your city that minorities are discriminated against by local major appliance retailers (with respect to prices, trade-ins, sales assistance, and credit). How would you use the techniques described in this chapter to study this question? 4. A local consumer organization is interested in the differences in food prices among major stores in the area. How should it proceed in order to obtain meaningful comparisons? 5. Toothpaste manufacturers have found consistently that if they ask for detailed information on the frequency with which people brush their teeth, and then make minimal assumptions as to the quantity of toothpaste used on each occasion, as well as spillage and failure to squeeze the tube empty, the result is a serious overstatement of toothpaste consumption. How would you explain this phenomenon? Would it be possible to design a study to overcome these problems and obtain more accurate estimates of consumption? Describe how such a study could be conducted. 6. The school board of St. Patrick’s High School is concerned about the rise of student violence involving guns during the past two months. During an emergency meeting, Father Hennessy, the school’s principal, insisted that steps be taken to return student behavior to its traditionally exemplary level. He suggested that this rise in the level of violence was for reasons beyond the experience of most of the school board members, and recommended that they needed to gather some background information on the situation in order to address the problem knowledgeably. The school board agreed with his proposal and decided to commission a market research study to question students on whether they carried guns and their underlying motivation for doing so. The research firm, Church and Associates, has decided to use focus groups or individual in-depth interviews to obtain the required information. a. Which of the above-mentioned techniques is suitable for this purpose? Give reasons. b. Church and Associates has recommended separate focus-group discussions involving the faculty. How can the moderator effectively encourage all the participants to discuss their feelings on the topic? 7. 8. 9. 10. c. What possible questions could be asked in an in-depth interview? What difficulties might be encountered when conducting a qualitative interview in an international context? When would you recommend observational methods? Why? How can a pretest add to the quality of a marketing research study? For each of the following scenarios, indicate whether qualitative or quantitative research is more appropriate. Also recommend a specific technique for each and justify your answer. a. A manufacturer of herbal teas wants to know how often and for what purposes consumers use herbal tea products. b. A political campaign manager wants to identify ways of sharply increasing the amount of contributions from the population. c. An amusement park is nearing the final stages of designing two new rides. It wants to measure the reactions of the public and their potential enthusiasm for the new rides. d. A company that manufactures potato chips has two alternative package designs for the product and wants to determine which design will yield higher sales. End Notes 1. Fred N. Kerlinger, Foundations of Behavioral Research, 3rd ed., New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1986. 2. http://www.energytrust.org, October 22, 2002. 3. David Kiley, “At Long Last, Detroit Gives Consumers the Right of Way,” Adweek, June 6, 1988, pp. 26–27. 4. Johny K. Johansson and Ikujiro Nonaka, “Market Research the Japanese Way,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1987, pp. 16–22. 5. Jeffrey F. Durgee, “Depth-Interview Techniques for Creative Advertising,” Journal of Advertising Research, January 1986, pp. 29–37. 6. Michael Quinn Patton, Qualitative Evaluation and Research Methods, Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990. For additional discussion of cross-cultural research and evaluation, see Michael Quinn Patton, Culture and Evaluation: New Directions for Program Evaluation, San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1985; Walter J. Lonner and John W. Berry, Field Methods in Cross Cultural Research, Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1986. 7. Bonnie Eisenfeld, “Phone interviews may garner more data,” Marketing News, March 3, 2003; Athol Foden, “Customer-Focused Efforts Require Listening,” Marketing News, March 3, 2003. 8. Judith Langer, “Telephone Time: In-Depth Interviews via Phone Gain Greater Acceptance,” Marketing Research Forum, Summer 1996, p. 6. 9. Michael Garee and Thomas R. Schori, “Position Focus Group Observers for Best View,” Marketing News, September 14, 1998, p. 29. 10. Martin Lautman, “Focus Groups: Theory and Method,” Advances in Consumer Research 9, October 1981, p. 54. 11. See Thomas Greenbaum, “Focus Groups vs. Oneon-Ones: The Controversy Continues,” Marketing News, September 2, 1991, p. 16. 12. Peter Tuckel, Elaine Leppo, and Barbara Kaplan, “Focus Groups under Scrutiny: Why People Go and How It Affects Their Attitudes towards Participation,” Marketing Research, 12, June 1992. 13. For a comprehensive listing of the providers of focus group facilities, see “1992 Marketing News Directory of Focus Group Facilities and Moderators,” Marketing News, January 6, 1992. 14. David W. Stewart and Prem N. Shamdasani, Focus Groups: Theory and Practice, Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990. 15. Nelson E. James and Nancy Frontczak, “How Acquaintanceship and Analyst Can Influence Focus Group Results,” Journal of Advertising, 17, 1988, pp. 41–48. 16. Wendy Hayward and John Rose, “We’ll Meet Again . . . Repeat Attendance at Group Discussions— 205 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. Does it Matter?” Journal of the Advertising Research Society, July 1990, pp. 377–407. For more discussion, see Edward F. Fern, “The Use of Focus Groups for Idea Generation: The Effects of Group Size, Acquaintanceship, and Moderator on Response Quantity and Quality,” Journal of Marketing Research, 19, February 1982, pp. 1–13. Naomi R. Henderson, “Trained Moderators Boost the Value of Qualitative Research,” Marketing Research, June 1992, p. 20. Rachel X. Weissman, “Online or Off Target,” American Demographics, November 1998. Dan Prince, “Handling the Unexpected during Focus Group,” Marketing News, September 23, 1996, p. 29. Michael Silverstein, “Two Way Focus Groups Can Provide Startling Information,” Marketing News, January 4, 1988, p. 31. “Network to Broadcast Live Focus Groups,” Marketing News, September 3, 1990, pp. 10, 47. Cindy Miller, “Anybody Ever Hear of Global Focus Groups?” Marketing News, May 27, 1991, p. 14. Harold H. Kassarjian, “Projective Methods,” in Robert Ferber, ed., Handbook of Marketing Research, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, pp. 3–87; Sidney J. Levy, “Dreams, Fairy Tales, Animals, and Cars,” Psychology and Marketing, 2, Summer 1985, pp. 67–82. Robert K. Schnee, “Quality Research: Going Beyond the Obvious,” Journal of Advertising Research, 28, February–March 1988. Ben Ordini, “A Novel Idea for Market Researchers,” Insights from MSI, Marketing Science Institute, Cambridge, MA, Fall 1997. David A. Aaker, Managing Brand Equity: Capitalizing on the Value of a Brand Name, New York: Macmillan, 1991. David A. Aaker, Managing Brand Equity: Capitalizing on the Value of a Brand Name, New York: Macmillan, 1991. Sidney J. Levy, “Dreams, Fairy Tales, Animals, and Cars,” Psychology and Marketing, 2, Summer 1985, pp. 67–81. David A. Aaker and Douglas M. Stayman, “Implementing the Concept of Transformational Advertising,” Psychology and Marketing, May–June 1992, pp. 237–253. This was the design of the classic study by Mason Haire, “Projective Techniques in Marketing Research,” Journal of Marketing, 14, 1950, pp. 649–656. However, recent validation studies have found that differences in the two descriptions are also influenced by the relationship of the two test products to the items in the shopping list, so the interpretation is anything but straightforward. See also James C. Andersen, “The Validity of Haire’s Shopping List 206 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. Projective Technique,” Journal of Marketing, 15, November 1978, pp. 644–649. Herbert Abelson, “A Role Rehearsal Technique for Exploratory Research,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 30, 1966, pp. 302–305. Carol B. Raffel, “Vague Notions,” Marketing Research, Summer 1996, pp. 21–23. The analysis of secondary records, as discussed in the previous chapter, is an observational method. In this chapter, however, we are restricting ourselves to the observation of ongoing behavior. Cliff Scott, David M. Klien, and Jennings Bryant, “Consumer Response to Humor in Advertising: A Series of Field Studies Using Behavioral Observation,” Journal of Consumer Research, 16, March 1990, pp. 498–501. An excellent summary article of content analysis is Richard Kolbe and Melissa Burnett, “Content Analysis Research: An Examination of Applications with Directives for Improving Research Reliability and Objectivity,” Journal of Consumer Research, September 1991, pp. 243–250. Other examples of content analysis are Mary Zimmer and Linda Golden, “Impressions of Retail Stores: A Content Analysis of Consumer Images,” Journal of Retailing, Fall 1988, pp. 265–293; and Terence Shimp, Joel Urbany, and Sakeh Camlin, “The Use of Framing and Characterization for Magazine Advertising of Mass Marketed Products,” Journal of Advertising, January 1988, pp. 23–30. For a fuller discussion, see Sechrest Lee, New Directions for Methodology of Behavior Science: Unobtrusive Measurement Today, San Francisco: JosseyBass, 1979. Joseph A. Cote, James McCullough, and Michael Reilly, “Effects of Unexpected Situations on BehaviorIntention Differences: A Garbology Analysis,” Journal of Consumer Research, 12, September 1985, pp. 188–194. Peggy Lawless, Marketing News, January 4, 1999. Elizabeth Hirschman, “Humanistic Inquiry in Marketing Research: Philosophy, Method and Criteria,” Journal of Marketing Research, August 1986, pp. 237–249. For more detailed information, see Yvonna Lincoln and Edward Guba, Naturalistic Inquiry, Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1985. “Arbitron to Develop ‘Pocket People Meter,’” Marketing News, January 4, 1993. Nancy Nighswonger and Claude Martin, Jr., “On Voice Analysis in Marketing Research,” Journal of Marketing Research, August 1981, pp. 350–355. Glen Brickman, “Uses of Voice Pitch Analysis,” Journal of Advertising Research, April 1980, pp. 69–73. William B. Helmreich, “Louder Than Words,” Marketing News, March 1, 1999, p. 13. Appendix Myths of Qualitative Research: It’s Conventional, but Is It Wisdom? Myth Fact Focus groups should never have more than six or seven respondents, so each one gets more “air time.” The ideal number of respondents depends on the type of respondents, the subject, and the moderator’s style. Qualitative researchers should approach each study with a clean-slate mentality. Past research by other companies, information about the clients’ hunches, or internal political battles concerning the current study will only bias the researcher. Background on a project’s real objectives and past learning is an important part of the moderator briefing. The information could certainly bias the moderator but a good researcher knows what to look for. The moderator can probe responses that do not fit hypotheses, touching more briefly on what confirms well-accepted knowledge. Many good ideas die in focus groups because consumers are not ready to accept new concepts. Qualitative research offers researchers the opportunity to probe what underlies consumers’ reactions. If an idea meets immediate respondent rejection, a good researcher explores the reasons why, whether the product might fit a real need, and what, if anything, could change the respondent’s mind. Focus groups should be demographically homogeneous. Most research budgets cannot afford the luxury of focus groups that differ demo-graphically, with one group per type in each market. Some diversity may actually prove to be beneficial. The rule of thumb is that the respondents must feel comfortable with one another talking about the subject. It is a mistake to ask respondents “why” they do or feel something. Usually the problem is not in asking the questions, but in how the questions are formed. The questions should not be intimidating and must show genuine interest and a desire to understand. Projective methods are excellent tools but they should not take the place of direct questions. In many areas, straightforward, nonjudgmental questions about respondents’ feelings successfully uncover respondents’ emotions. Qualitative research should rely mainly on projective techniques (such as collages, drawings, photographs, and role-playing). These bring out thoughts and feelings that consumers either are not in touch with or are uncomfortable acknowledging publicly. Focus groups at 8 P.M. are not a good idea because everyone is tired. The sign of a good moderator is that he or she says very little in a focus group. Recruiting is fairly easy when the client provides lists of customers to be interviewed for focus groups and in-depth interviews. Focus groups at 6 P.M. and 8 P.M. are necessary because most people work during the day. The energy level of a focus group is more indicative of the chemistry of respondents and their interest in the topic than the time. The moderator’s role should be active, responsive, and creative. That role includes guiding the group dynamics. Moderators should offer nonleading feedback by reflecting back to respondents what the moderator picks up and probing further. Recruiting from a list is not necessarily easy. Lists typically take longer to produce than expected, which doesn’t allow sufficient time for recruiting. Many lists lack telephone numbers, requiring additional time and expense for phone lookups. 207 (continued) Sending notes to the moderator during the focus group enables clients to be involved in the process, ensuring that the research provides answers to their questions. Notes brought into the interviewing room can be quite disrupting. Notes can be a reminder that the respondents are being observed and hence will make them self-conscious. Also, repeated notes raise questions in respondents’ minds about whether the observers trust the moderator, creating a tense and awkward situation. Focus groups should be used rarely since there is usually a strong personality who dominates the discussion. In many groups, respondents all contribute to the discussion, although some people are more talkative or articulate than others. Instead, other respondents may distance themselves from that person, feeling free to disagree. A strong personality may speak up confidently yet not dominate. Experienced moderators have a variety of techniques for dealing with respondents. The topic guide and materials shown in a series of focus groups should be kept the same throughout for consistency. Qualitative research should be dynamic; new ideas may come up, which should alter the topic guide during the study. Changes usually mean that learning has taken place and the topic should not constantly remain the same. The purpose of the qualitative study is to help the client move toward ideas that work, not to “quantify” that an idea doesn’t work. Qualitative research studies should always be followed by quantitative research to test the hypotheses. At times, due to budget constraints, qualitative studies are sufficient for marketing research. In terms of quality of research, if the research of a sizeable qualitative study is consistent and has a “commonsense validity,” then it is unnecessary to do quantitative research. A discussion guide for focus groups is referred to by some clients as a “script,” a term that implies that the moderator should follow it pretty much verbatim. A topic guide should be just that—a general guide to the topics that should be covered and the order in which they should be covered, and some ideas on possible probes or techniques the moderator might use. The sequence is merely a guideline when there is no significant research reason for holding off on a subject until another one has been discussed. Qualitative research must be done in person and through in-depth interviews to develop rapport between interviewer and respondent Rapport can be just as strong or stronger in telephone interviews. Not being able to see the interviewer can be an advantage. To build rapport on the phone, we ease into the interview with simple usage or attitude questions rather than the icebreakers often asked in focus groups. SOURCE: Judith Langer, Marketing News, March 1, 1999, Vol. 33, No. 5, p. 13. 208 Quant-Qual Combo in Understanding Customers Recent thinking among subject-matter specialists is focused toward integrating qualitative and quantitative methodologies in an attempt to understand customer behavioral patterns. For quite some time now, it has been realized that neither qualitative nor quantitative research is sufficient in perfectly describing behavioral patterns. Quantitative methods, in their effort to provide more “objective” results, tend to overlook a multitude of factors that may actually have been influential in decision making. Most such research, based on quantitative analysis, is done using oversimplified linear models, which make a lot of unwarranted and unrealistic assumptions. Such assumptions tend to distort facts because dimensions like self-identity could have played major roles in channeling customer behavior. In such cases, qualitative analysis tools like ethnographies (an anthropological tool that studies human behavior in perspective of cultures), case studies, and histobiographies (biographies in historical context) would provide a better understanding. Using both quantitative and qualitative analyses in tandem would be the best way to understand customer needs and how to appropriately market to these needs. SOURCE: Demitry Estrin, “Quant-Qual Combo Aids Audience Understanding,” Marketing News, March 3, 2003, p. 56. CASE 8-1 Mountain Bell Telephone Company Jim Martin, marketing research manager for Mountain Bell, studied the final research design for the hospital administrator study that had been prepared by Industrial Surveys, a marketing research firm in Denver. He realized that he needed to formulate some recommendations with respect to some very specific questions. Should individual personal interviewers be used as suggested by Industrial Surveys, or should a series of one to six focus-group interviews be used instead? Was the questionnaire satisfactory? Should individual questions be added, deleted, or modified? Should the flow be changed? Exactly who should be sampled, and what should the sample size be? Research Setting About 20 field salespeople at Mountain Bell Telephone Company were involved in sales of communication equipment and services to the health-care industry. Because of job rotations and reorganizations, few salespeople had been in their present positions for more than three years. They were expected to determine customer needs and problems and to design responsive communication systems. In addition, there was a health-care industry manager, Andy Smyth, who had overall responsibility for the health-care industry marketing effort at Mountain Bell, although none of the sales personnel reported directly to him. He prepared a marketing action plan and worked to see that it was implemented. The marketing action plan covered: Sales objective by product and by segment Sales training programs Development of sales support materials and information Andy Smyth was appointed only recently to his current position, although he had worked in the healthcare market for several years while with the Eastern Bell Telephone Company. Thus, he did have some firsthand knowledge of customer concerns. Further, there was an AT&T marketing plan for the health-care industry which included an industry profile; however, it lacked the detailed information needed, especially at the local level. It also lacked current information as to competitive products and strategies. Mountain Bell had long been a quasi-monopoly, but during the past decade had seen vigorous aggressive competitors appear. Andy Smyth thought it imperative to learn exactly what competitive products were making inroads, in what applications, and the basis of their competitive appeal. He also felt the need for some objective in-depth information as to how major Mountain Bell customers in the health-care industry perceived the company’s product line and its sales force. He hypothesized that the sales force was generally weak in terms of understanding customers’ communication needs and problems. He felt that such information would be particularly helpful in understanding customers’ concerns and in developing an effective sales training program. He hoped that the end result would be to make the sales force more customer oriented and to increase revenues from the health-care market. 209 While at Eastern Bell, Andy Smyth had initiated a mail survey of hospital administrators that had been of some value. Several months before, he had approached Jim Martin with the idea of doing something similar at Mountain. Jim’s reaction was that the questionnaire previously used was too general (that is one question was: What basic issues confront the health-care area?) or too difficult to answer (How much do you budget monthly for telecommunications equipment or service? 0–$1,000; $1,000–$2,000; etc.) Further, he felt that indepth individual interviews would be more fruitful. Thus, he contacted Industrial Surveys, which, after considerable discussion with both Jim and Andy, created the research design. They were guided by the following research objectives: 1. What are the awareness and usage levels of competitive telecommunications products by the hospital? 2. What is the perception of Mountain Bell’s sales force capabilities as compared to other telecommunications vendors? 3. What is the decision-making process as it pertains to the identification, selection, and purchase of telecommunications equipment? 4. What concerns/problems impact most directly upon the hospital’s (department’s) daily operations? 5. What are the perceived deficiencies and suggestions for improvement of work/information flow? Research Design Research interviews will be conducted in seven Denver area hospitals with the hospital administrator and, where possible, with the financial officer and the telecommunications manager. A total of 14 interviews are planned. Interviews will be held by appointment, and each respondent will be probed relative to those questions that are most appropriate for his or her position and relevant to the study’s overall objectives. The cost will be from $6,500 to $8,500, depending on the time involved to complete the interviews. The questionnaire to be used follows. A. Awareness and Usage of Competitive Telecommunications Equipment 1. What departments presently use non-Bell voice communications equipment (paging, intercom, message recording, etc.)? What were the main considerations in selecting this equipment? 2. What departments use non-Bell data terminals (CRTs)? What are the major functions/activities that this equipment is used for? What were the main considerations in selecting this equipment? 3. How do you view the capabilities of Bell System voice-communications equipment to meet your operations needs? 210 B. C. D. E. 4. How do you view the capabilities of Bell System data terminals to meet your records- and information-retrieval needs? 5. What do you feel are Mountain Bell’s main strengths and/or weaknesses in meeting your hospital’s overall telecommunications needs? Perceptions of the Mountain Bell Sales Force 1. What should a telecommunications specialist know about the hospital industry in order to adequately address your voice-communications and data-processing needs? 2. Have you ever worked with any Mountain Bell marketing people in terms of your communications needs? If so, how knowledgeable do you perceive the Mountain Bell sales force to be with respect to both the health-care industry and their telecommunications equipment? How do they compare to non-Bell vendors of such products? Purchasing Decision 1. What is the standard procedure for selecting and authorizing a telecommunications purchase? Is this based primarily on the dollar amount involved or type of technology? 2. Who has the greatest input on the telecommunications decision (department manager, administrator, physicians, and so on)? 3. What are the most important considerations in evaluating a potential telecommunications purchase (equipment price, cost-savings potential, available budget, and so on)? 4. What supplier information is most important in facilitating the purchasing decision? How effective has the Mountain Bell sales force been in providing such information? Specification of the Most Important Problems or Concerns Relating to Effective Hospital Management 1. What are the most important problems or concerns confronting you in managing the hospital? 2. What type of management data is required in order to deal effectively with these problems or concerns? 3. How are these data presently recorded, updated, and transmitted? How effective would you say your current information-retrieval system is? 4. Do you have any dollar amount specifically budgeted for data or telecommunications improvements in 2004–2005? What specific information or communication functions are you most interested in upgrading? Achieving Maximum Utilization of Hospital Facilities 1. Do you experience any problems in obtaining accurate, up-to-date information on the availability of bed space, operating rooms, or lab services? 2. Do you see _________ hospitals as competing with other area hospitals or HMOs in the provision of health-care services? If so, with which hospitals? Do you have a marketing plan to deal with this situation? F. Efficient Use of Labor Resources 1. How variable is the typical daily departmental workload, and what factors most influence this variance? 2. How do you document and forecast workload fluctuations? Is this done for each hospital department? 3. To what extent (if any) do you use outside consulting firms to work with you in improving the delivery of hospital services? G. Reimbursement and Cash Flow 1. Which insurer is the primary provider of funds? How is reimbursement made by the major insurers? CASE 8-2 U.S. Department of Energy (A) Judy Ryerson, the head of the windmill power section of the U.S. Department of Energy, was considering what types of qualitative marketing research would be useful to address a host of research questions. The U.S. Department of Energy was formed to deal with the national energy problem. One of its goals was to encourage the development of a variety of energy sources, including the use of windmill power. One difficulty was that almost nothing was known about the current use of windmill power and the public reaction to it as a power source. Before developing windmill power programs, it seemed prudent to address several 2. What information do you need to verify the existence and type of insurance coverage when an individual is being processed for admission or outpatient hospital services? What, if any, problems are experienced in the verification and communication of insurance information? Source: This case was prepared by D. Aaker and J. Seydel as a basis for class discussion. research questions to obtain background information and to formulate testable hypotheses. Current Use of Windmills in the United States How many power-generating windmills are there? Who owns them? What power-generating performance is being achieved? What designs are being used? What applications are involved? Public Reaction What are the public attitudes to various power sources? How much premium would the public be willing to pay for windmill power sources, both in terms of money and in terms of “visual pollution?” What is the relative acceptance of six different windmill designs ranging from the “old Dutch windmill” design to an egg-beater design? Assignment ge / aak w om/ c o l er .c le w. wi l ey Design one or more qualitative research designs to address the search questions and to develop hypotheses for future testing. If focus-group interviews are CASE 8-3 Acura w Acura was introduced into the U.S. luxury market in 1986 as a premium car at a bargain price, compared with European luxury imports. Given a $20,000 price tag, it became the best-selling premium import brand. considered, provide a set of questions to guide the moderator. As long as it could underprice the competition, Acura’s sales were steady. In 1992, however, European luxury brands such as Mercedes, BMW, and Audi started slashing their prices, and the value of the Japanese yen rose. Both factors combined to wipe out Acura’s “premium car at a bargain price” advantage. Another blow came when archrivals Toyota Motor 211 Corp. and Nissan Motor Corp. launched the Lexus and Infiniti, even more upscale brands, starting at $35,000. I. Campaign Time Acura did not anticipate the resurgence of the European luxury brands. Acura is strong in quality, dependability, and value, but it does not perform well in the luxurious, expensive-looking, and prestige departments. However, as Acura discovered, customers want performance plus status, prestige, comfort, and luxury. So far, Acura has struggled to justify prices and convince buyers that the $40,000 maximum price on the Acura Legend will include those attributes. In the desire to “retool its image,” Acura replaced its performance-based ads with luxury ads, such as a campaign nicknamed “Chanel ads,” featuring mansions with cobblestone driveways and a towel-draped woman getting a massage in a gazebo. The tag line reads, “Some things are worth the price.” Competition has rebutted by claiming that their $13,000 Altima was “worth far more than the price.” Other efforts by Acura to “retool” their image have included promotional tours with Cirque du Soleil. Buyers might be getting mixed signals. One-third of Acura’s regional budget is allocated to dealerships, which typically run hard-sell rather than image ads. Acura has also struggled to convince dealers to upgrade their showrooms to fit the luxury image. The line’s well-established brand names, Legend and Integra, will soon be replaced by bigger, more luxurious cars designed to compete with top-of-the-line, $50,000-plus Lexus and Infiniti models. Equipped with a smaller engine, RL model Acura cars will sell for $10,000 less. II. Issues Luxury service and new luxury products will be required to win customers. Should Acura keep pouring dollars into the image campaign, or stick to performance and quality, its strengths? What do the consumers want? Design a format for a focus-group discussion to analyze this situation. (Hint: Consider three formats: exploratory, clinical, experiencing. Will the prestige pitch work to rescue lagging sales?) Source: This case is based on Larry Armstrong, “Acura: Stuck between Gears?,” Business Week, October 2, 1995, pp. 136–137, and was prepared by V. Kumar for classroom discussion. CASE 8-4 Exploratory Research on the Lleyton Hewitt National Visa Card tournament after his recovery, but he was defeated by Alberto Martin in the early rounds. He attributed his early loss to the fact that he was still recovering from his illness and lacked energy. The Player Lleyton Hewitt, a top-class tennis player from Australia, stunned the world by defeating the reigning champion Pete Sampras to win the U.S. Open in 2001. His inherent talent was obvious when he beat his older and more experienced opponents at the tender age of 8. He won his first professional title in 1998 when he was 17 years old. He decided to discontinue his studies to pursue a full-time career in tennis. His victories, over top-seeded players such as Patrick Rafter, Pete Sampras, Gustavo Kuerten, Alex Corretja, Magnus Norman, and many others during the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) tour, established him as the number-one tennis player in the world. Unfortunately, however, Hewitt had to withdraw from the Hopman Cup in 2002 because he had chicken pox. The 2002 Australian Open was his comeback The Lleyton Hewitt Credit Card In January 2002, Hewitt agreed to be featured on a new Visa credit card offered by the National Australia Bank. With the Lleyton Hewitt National Visa Card, the bank expected to capitalize not only on the popularity of this young player but also on the popularity of Australia’s premier tennis event, the Australian Open. One of the salient features of the card was a low introductory interest rate of 6.9 percent p.a for the first six months. Furthermore, cardholders could choose between the Standard National Visa Card and the Gold National Visa Card. The extensive market research conducted by the bank prior to the release of the credit card revealed a strong demand for such a product. The research also indicated that the association of Lleyton Hewitt with the card would increase customer acquisition, card 212 usage, and customer retention. Target customers were short-listed based on the information available about their demographics and psychographics. The National Australia Bank, which over the previous 18 months had aggressively pursued a strategy of offering innovative products, believed that the Lleyton Hewitt National Visa Card was an example of an innovative lifestyle product. Questions for Discussion 1. 2. 3. What types of demographic and psychographic information are required for this study? How would you obtain it? Would the recent poor performance of Lleyton Hewitt affect the attitude of prospective and current credit card holders of the bank? How would the company carry out marketing research to study this issue? Design the focus-group study and develop some key questions that the interviewers can use to elicit the level of demand for the credit card. How would the demand for the credit card be forecasted? CASE 8-5 Hamilton Beach Conducts Primary Research in Mexico and Europe Hamilton Beach is well-known in the United States as a maker of small kitchen appliances like blenders, toasters, and mixers. However, the brand is not so familiar in other countries. When the firm decided to expand into Europe and Mexico with a new product line, they wanted to assess the brand awareness in these markets. Based on the assumption that the Mexican consumer is slightly more prone to buying U.S. products, the firm wanted to confirm that there was better brand awareness in Mexico. A mixture of qualitative and quantitative research techniques were used in Mexico. Through the study, the firm was looking to determine what features were to be included in the product and the retail environment through which they were going to sell. They also wanted to find out the acceptance level for the brand and whether the features of the product fit in well with consumer needs. They found that the brand awareness 4. How would Hewitt’s age, lifestyle, personal interests, and personality relate to those of the cardholders? How would you design a marketing research study to identify the demographic characteristics of the prospective cardholders and identify the future customer group? This case was prepared by the authors with inputs from “Lleyton Hewitt Serves up a Winner for the National,” press release, http://www.nab.com.au/ wps/wcm/connect/nab/nab/home/about_us/ 8/5/21/1/2, January 10, 2002. was high in Mexico, and considering the proximity to the United States and the similar taste preferences due to exposure to the same types of products, they were optimistic in going ahead with the product launch. The initial results were promising and indicated success. Then Hamilton Beach changed its focus to the European market. The research in Europe involved focus groups with the participants being asked to look at and touch the products. After the participants had an opportunity to examine the products, they were asked to come back and talk about them in general, spontaneous terms. The discussion showed that European consumers were much more focused on design than American consumers. They seemed to like colors, rounded shapes, and good-looking appliances, especially those they plan to leave out on their kitchen counters. European consumers also did not appear to be as interested in product features. For example, while an American consumer perceives an 18-speed blender as definitely added value, the European consumer seemed to perceive it as confusing and therefore as something negative. 213 The research also highlighted the differences in how Hamilton Beach product designers and consumers define a product line. To the designers, uniformity of things like the color of knobs on the appliances and the fonts used in the instructions make a group of products into a product line. But European consumers felt product attributes like color and shape defined a product line. Hamilton Beach decided to change the whole European line to suit the consumer preferences and go back and do the same kind of research, before launching the product on a large scale. Questions for Discussion 1. Do you think the focus group research conducted in Europe was representative of the population in terms of: ■ Brand awareness and acceptance ■ Desired product features ■ Distribution channels 2. As a market research analyst, is there an alternate way to design the research process in Europe to address the issues? Source: Adapted with permission from Joseph Rydholm, “Seeking the Right Mix,” November 2001, http://www.quirks.com/articles/a2001/ 20011105.aspx?searchID=218469119&sort=9 Mini Project The mini project is a group activity designed for students wherein they are required to see video clips from websites (for example, www.pbs.org and www.leaduser.com). The topics of the clips include narrowcasting, narrowing boundaries between content and advertising, science of selling, and lead-users and innovation. The students are then asked to present the topic in class and be prepared to answer questions related to the topics discussed. Grading for the presentation is based on the students’ ability to clearly 214 define the concept assigned, explanation of the concept using relevant examples, and incorporation of their relation to contemporary marketing research issues. Students are also encouraged to refer to other relevant sources in designing the content of the presentation. This project is aimed at giving students a real-world look at both qualitative marketing research and data analytics issues. Additional information on this project including the URLs for the topics is available at http://www.drvkumar.com/MR11. INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION 9 Learning Objectives ■ Discuss the different kinds of information that are collected through surveys. ■ Introduce the errors that occur while conducting a survey. ■ Discuss the various factors that influence the selection of the survey method to use. ■ Discuss the ethical issues involved in collecting data from respondents. The survey is the overwhelming choice of researchers for collecting primary data. The methods already discussed—qualitative and observational research, secondary data analysis, and secondary data research on the Internet—are more likely to be used to improve or supplement the survey method than to take its place. The principal advantage of a survey is that it can collect a great deal of data about an individual respondent at one time. It is perhaps only stating the obvious to say that for most kinds of data the respondent is the only, or the best, source. The second advantage of this method is versatility; surveys can be employed in virtually any setting with any group—whether among teenagers, old-age pensioners, or sailboat owners—and are adaptable to research objectives that necessitate either a descriptive or causal design. These advantages are not easy to achieve. Effective implementation requires considerable judgment in the choice of a survey method, whether a personal or telephone interview or a selfadministered survey such as an email, mail or fax questionnaire. There also are some distinct disadvantages to surveys that stem from the social interaction of interviewer and respondent. Indeed, a survey cannot be developed or interpreted properly without a knowledge of the errors that may bias the data during this interaction. These and other related issues are discussed in this chapter as a prelude to the analysis of the methods of collecting survey data, the principal focus of the next chapter. INFORMATION FROM SURVEYS Surveys can be designed to capture a wide variety of information on many diverse topics and subjects. Attitudes are very often the subject of surveys. Information on attitudes frequently is obtained in the form of consumers’ awareness, knowledge, or perceptions about the product, its features, availability, and pricing, and various aspects of the marketing effort. Surveys can also capture the respondents’ overall assessment and the extent to which the object is rated as favorable or unfavorable. Information can be obtained about a person’s image of something. Each person tends to see things a little differently from others, so no two images are apt to be exactly alike. Decisions are also the topic of research, but the focus is not so much on the results of decisions in the past but more on the process by which respondents evaluate things. Those seeking survey information are often keenly interested in those aspects of the decision process that people use to choose actions. Marketers are often concerned with why people behave as they do. Most behavior is directed toward satisfying one or more human needs. Thus, the answer to the 215 CHAPTER 9 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION question of “why” is often obtained by measuring the relationship between actions and needs, desires, preferences, motives, and goals. Measuring behavior usually involves four related concepts: what the respondents did or did not do; where the action takes place; the timing, including past, present, and future; and the frequency or persistence of behavior. In other words, it often means assessing what, where, when, and how often. Surveys can also be conducted to determine respondents’ lifestyles. Groupings of the population by lifestyle can be used to identify an audience, constituency, target market, or other collections of interest to the sponsor. Social contact and interaction are often the focus of survey research or bear heavily on other issues relevant to the survey. So the family setting, memberships, social contacts, reference groups, and communications of respondents frequently are measured or assessed within the survey research process. Demographic factors often obtained through surveys include such variables as age, sex, marital status, education, employment, and income, among others. Personality reflects consistent, enduring patterns of behavior, and it is more deeply rooted than lifestyle. Personality can be measured using rating methods, situational tests, projective techniques, and inventory schemes. Motivation and knowledge are also frequently measured using surveys. SOURCES OF SURVEY ERROR The process by which respondents are questioned appears deceptively simple. The reality, however, is closer to Oppenheim’s opinion that “questioning people is more like trying to catch a particularly elusive fish, by hopefully casting different kinds of bait at different depths, without knowing what is going on beneath the surface.”1 The problem of getting meaningful results from the interview process stems from the need to satisfy reasonably the following conditions: ■ Population has been defined correctly. ■ Sample is representative of the population. ■ Respondents selected to be interviewed are available and willing to cooperate. ■ Respondents understand the questions. ■ Respondents have the knowledge, opinions, attitudes, or facts required. ■ Interviewer understands and records the responses correctly. These conditions often are not satisfied because of interviewer error, ambiguous interpretation of both questions and answers, and errors in formulating responses. These types of errors are shown in Figure 9-1 as filters or screens that distort both the question and response. Ambiguity, usually a consequence of poor question wording, is covered in Chapter 12. In this section, we will deal with the factors that influence prospective respondents’ willingness to cooperate and provide accurate answers to whatever questions are asked. Nonresponse Due to Refusals Refusal rates are highly variable. They can be as low as 3 to 5 percent of those contacted for a short interview on a street corner or at a bus stop, to 80 or 90 percent and higher for lengthy personal and telephone interviews or mail questionnaires, which are of little interest to most subjects. High refusal rates can be a major source of error if those who refuse to be interviewed are very different from those who cooperate. People cooperate for a number of reasons, such as trying to be friendly and helpful, to interact socially when they are lonely or bored, to know more 216 SOURCES Ambiguity of question (see Chapter 12) POPULATION FRAME Sample RESPONDENT Nonresponse due to refusals or not-at-home Sampling error (see Chapters 14 and 15) SURVEY ERROR Interviewer error Question Answer • Inaccuracy in response • Inability to formulate a response • Unwillingness to respond OF INTERVIEWER Ambiguity of answer FIGURE 9-1 Sources of error in information from respondents. about the subject, or to experience something novel. Many people also cooperate when they expect a reward or a direct benefit. People refuse to answer survey questions for a number of reasons. Fear is the main reason for refusal.2 Othes might be that some may think of surveys as an invasion of privacy; the subject matter may be sensitive (such as death, sexual habits, etc.); or there may be hostility toward the sponsor.3 Refusal rates can be reduced if the reason for refusals is related to a phenotypic source. A phenotypic source of refusals refers to characteristics of the data collection procedure (which questions are asked, how they are asked, the length of the interview, and so on). These elements vary from study to study and can be controlled to a certain extent. But if the source of refusals is genotypic, then it is difficult to control for them. A genotypic source refers to the indigenous characteristics of respondents (such as age, sex, and occupation). One avenue to reducing this type of refusal is to try to interview respondents in ways that are less intrusive in their lives.4 Other methods, such as multiple callbacks (mailings), guarantee of anonymity, increasing surveyor credibility, incentives for completed responses, randomized responses, and shortening the survey through matrix designs, can increase response rates.5 An example of the effect of nonresponse errors is given in Marketing Research in Action 9-1. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 9-1 Nonresponse Bias Leads to Wrong Prediction in Presidential Opinion Poll An example of significant bias as a result of low response to mail questionnaires is the often-cited Literary Digest presidential poll in 1936. The two candidates were Alfred E. Landon of the Republican Party and Franklin D. Roosevelt of the Democratic Party. The Literary Digest conducted a mail survey and predicted a victory for Landon in the election. But Roosevelt won by a big margin in a landslide victory for the Democrats. The story is told that the sample was drawn from telephone books, and the Republicans (Landon’s party) were more likely to have telephones in 1936. Hence, this biased the sample toward Republicans. In addition, the failure of the poll to predict correctly was attributed to nonresponse; only a minority of those asked to return questionnaires did so. As is typical of mail surveys, those who returned the questionnaire wanted the underdog Landon to win. The Landon supporters were particularly likely to want to express their views, whereas the Roosevelt supporters, since they were the majority, did not bother to respond to the survey. SOURCE: M. Bryson, “The Literary Digest Poll: Making of a Statistical Myth,” American Statistician, November 1976, pp. 184–185. 217 CHAPTER 9 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION Inaccuracy in Response Respondents may be unable to give any response, or unwilling to give a complete and accurate response. Inability to Respond. Respondents may not know the answer to a question because of ignorance or forgetting, or may be unable to articulate it. All three problems create further errors when respondents contrive an answer because they do not want to admit that they don’t know the answer or because they want to please the interviewer. Respondents are likely to be ignorant when asked some questions. For example, a husband and wife may not be equally aware of the financial status of the family (such as insurance, investment, and benefits), so depending on who you survey you will get a different answer. The likelihood of forgetting an episode such as a visit to a doctor, a purchase, and so forth, depends on both the recency of the occurrence and the importance of the event, as well as on what else was happening at the same time. 6 Ideally, questions should be asked only about recent behavior. If retrospective questions are required, the accuracy of recall can be improved by questioning the respondent about the context in which an event occurred. Memories may be sharpened by aided-recall techniques. These attempt to stimulate recall with specific cues, such as copies of magazines, pictures, or lists. It is always preferable to ask about specific occasions of an activity. It is essential to keep in mind that most respondents want to be cooperative; when in doubt, they prefer to give too much rather than too little information. Memory distortions compound this source of error by telescoping time, so that an event is remembered as occurring more recently than it actually did.7 Another common memory error is averaging, whereby something is reported as more like the usual, the expected, or the norm. This is a particular problem for researchers trying to study the exceptions to the ordinary. General Foods’ researchers interested in homemaker’s variations in evening meals found it very difficult to overcome the respondent’s tendency to say “It was Sunday, so it must have been roast beef.” In studies of evening meals at General Foods, researchers reduced the averaging problem by asking respondents a series of questions that helped them to reconstruct the event. A third memory pitfall is called omission, where a respondent leaves out an event or some aspect of an experience. Respondent fatigue and poor interviewer rapport are demotivating and result in increased omitting. The use of graphic aids to recall or recognition measures will help to reduce omission. Finally, respondents may be unable to respond because they cannot formulate an adequate answer. This is especially true of direct questions about motivations. Many choice decisions are made without conscious consideration of the reasons. So when people are asked why they responded to a charitable appeal, bought a particular brand of analgesic, or watched a certain television program, the reasons they give are likely to be incomplete and superficial. An alternative is to use indirect methods such as the projective techniques described in Chapter 8. One technique that is being used to judge the probability of response inaccuracies is to measure the time it takes for the respondent to answer a question. Studies show that a too-slow response may mean the question is too difficult to understand, whereas an immediate response probably means that it was either misunderstood or not well thought out. Unwillingness to Respond Accurately. During the interview a number of response bias factors may come into play to subvert the positive motivations that were present when the respondent agreed to participate. Questionnaires that are lengthy and boring are especially vulnerable to these biases. 218 1. Concern about invasion of privacy. Although most respondents don’t regard a survey, per se, as an invasion of privacy, their tolerance may not extend to detailed personal questions. As many as 20 percent of the respondents in a telephone or personal interview survey may refuse to answer an income question, and others may distort their answer. To some extent, assurances of confidentiality and full explanations of the need for the data will reduce this problem. SOURCES OF SURVEY ERROR 2. Time pressure and fatigue. As a lengthy interview proceeds, the accuracy of responses is bound to decline. Those respondents who initially were reluctant to participate because they were busy become anxious about the time that seems to be required. Not surprisingly, they may decide that giving abrupt answers and avoiding requests for clarification are the best ways to terminate the interview quickly. Even those who respond willingly and fully to all questions will become fatigued eventually if the interview is too long. The resulting bias is most likely random, but is sometimes in a consistent direction if the respondent decides to retaliate by grouping all answers about some point on a scale.8 3. Prestige seeking and social desirability response bias. There is mounting evidence that respondents will distort their answers in ways that (they believe) will enhance their prestige in the eyes of the interviewer and will not put them at variance with their perception of the prevailing norms of society. Consequently, questions that have implications for prestige—such as income, education, time spent reading newspapers, tastes in food, or even place of residence—may be biased subtly in ways that reflect well on the respondent. 4. Courtesy bias. There is a general tendency to limit answers to pleasantries that will cause little discomfort or embarrassment to the interviewer, or to avoid appearing uncooperative. We have seen already how this bias can inflate responses to aided-recall questions. It also is encountered in concept-testing situations when a respondent gives a “courtesy endorsement” to the description of a new idea, even though he or she may have little interest in the idea.9 5. Uninformed response error. Simply asking someone a question implies that the interviewer expects the respondent to have an answer. This expectation, plus a desire to appear cooperative, may induce respondents to answer a question despite a complete lack of knowledge about the topic. When a sample of the general public was asked a question about a fictitious organization, the National Bureau of Consumer Complaints, an astonishing 75 percent of those who returned the questionnaire expressed an opinion about the effectiveness of the organization in obtaining relief for consumers.10 6. Response style. Evaluative questions requiring a good-bad, positive-negative judgment are afflicted by systematic tendencies of certain respondents to select particular styles or categories of response regardless of the content of the question. For example, there is an acquiescence response set, which is the tendency to favor affirmative over negative responses. This is different from “yea saying,” which is a tendency to give exaggerated responses; that is, good becomes very good and bad becomes very bad. For example, Wells found that yeasayers consistently gave higher ratings to favorably evaluated advertisements and were more likely to exaggerate self-reports of product purchases.11 Interviewer Error Interviewers vary enormously in personal characteristics, amount of previous experience, style of interviewing, and motivation to do a thorough job. The differences among interviewers also mean a great deal of variability in the way interviews are conducted. Respondent’s Impression of the Interviewer. For most respondents a personal interview is a sufficiently novel experience that the interviewer becomes a major source of clues to appropriate behavior. The interviewer must be seen as a person who is capable of understanding the respondent’s point of view, and of doing so without rejecting his or her opinion. This kind of rapport is most likely to be established quickly when respondent and interviewer share basic characteristics such as sex, age, race, and social class. The attitudes the interviewer reveals to the respondent during the interview can greatly affect their level of interest and willingness to answer openly. Especially important is a sense of assurance and ease with the task. Communication will be inhibited further if the interviewer appears flippant or bored, constantly interrupts the person when speaking, or is too immersed in note taking to look up.12 Obviously, proper selection of interviewers, coupled with good training, can reduce many of these problems. 219 CHAPTER 9 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION Questioning, Probing, and Recording. The way an interviewer asks a question and follows up by probing for further details and clarification will be colored by (1) the interviewer’s own feelings about the “appropriate” answer to the questions and (2) expectations about the kind of answers that “fit” the respondent. For example, when interviewing a person with limited education, the interviewer might shift unconsciously from a question worded, “Have any of your children attended college?” to “I don’t imagine any of your children have gone to college. Have they?” In one study it was found that one interviewer obtained 8 percent while another interviewer obtained 92 percent choosing the same option.13 Perhaps the most common interviewer error is insufficient probing. The respondents may not be expected to have much to say about the subject or may have given an answer that the interviewer thinks is “right.” Fraud and Deceit. Modest interviewer compensation and the problem of monitoring the activities of personal interviewers out in the field, or telephone interviewers calling from their home, provide ample incentive for cheating. This may be as serious as outright fabrication of an entire interview or judicious filling in of certain information that was not obtained during the interview. Because it is such a serious potential source of error, most commercial research firms validate 10 to 15 percent of the completed interviews. This entails interviewing a sample of those who were reported to have been interviewed, to verify that an interview actually took place and that the questions were asked. Improving Interviewer Quality. New approaches to improving data collection quality are being constantly tried in order to overcome some of the interview problems that have been mentioned. Field briefings can be improved by preparing videotaped briefings to show to interviewers, to ensure a consistent message to all interviewers prior to data collection. Actual interviews can be recorded by camera at a particular site, and all interviewers can be rotated through that site to check on the quality of interviewing. Finally, if electronic quality checks are too expensive, research firms can hire independent field personnel to check quality. The array of problems and sources of error, summarized in Table 9-1, have the greatest effect on the personal interview method. The best solution by far is to minimize the problems by proper TABLE 9-1 Sources of Error in Interview Surveys 1. Nonresponse errors due to refusals a. Fear of the consequences of participation b. Resentment of an invasion of privacy c. Anxiety about the subject 2. Inaccuracy in responses a. Inability to give a response i. Don’t know the answer ii. Memory problems iii. Problems in formulating an answer b. Unwillingness to respond accurately i. Concern about invasion of privacy ii. Time pressure and fatigue iii. Desire to enhance prestige iv. Desire to appear cooperative v. Biased response style vi. Interviewer forcing the respondent to have an answer 220 3. Errors caused by interviewers a. Provision of clues to “appropriate” responses b. Inadequate questioning and probing c. Fraud and deceit FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHOICE OF A SURVEY METHOD TABLE 9-2 Basic Survey Methods and Their Characteristics Survey Method Characteristics Personal interviews The interviewer interviews the respondent in person. There is direct contact between the interviewer and the respondent. The environment (mood of the respondent and the interviewer, the time and place of the interview, etc.) affects the data collection process to a large extent. Costliest, and the most time-consuming form of data collection. Telephone interviews The interviewer interviews the respondent over the telephone. The interviewer has only verbal contact with the respondent. The environment plays a relatively minor role in the data collection process. Data collection cost is in between that of a personal interview and a mail survey. Self-administered surveys (mail, email, web-based, fax) The questionnaire is completed by the respondent. The interviewer has no contact with the respondent. The environment plays no role in the data collection process. The least expensive form of data collection. recruiting, selecting, training, motivation, and control of interviewers. Yet the potential for poorquality interviews is enormous.14 While other methods of data collection are less prone to interview error, they have offsetting problems, as we will see in Chapter 10. METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION The choice of a data collection method is a critical point in the research process. The decision is seldom easy, for there are many factors to be considered and many variations of the three basic survey methods: (1) personal interview, (2) telephone interview, and (3) self-administered survey (e.g. mail, email, fax, etc.). In this section, we will look briefly at the different methods of data collection and the factors affecting the choice of method. Because each research problem will have a different ranking of importance, and no data collection method is consistently superior, few generalizations can be made. Much depends on the researcher’s skill in adapting the method to the circumstances. Overall, however, the telephone and the self-administered survey methods are the dominant methods for conducting surveys. In the 1990 Walker Industry Image Study, it was found that 69 percent of the respondents had participated in mail surveys, 68 percent had participated in telephone surveys, 32 percent in mall intercept surveys, and 15 percent in door-to-door interviews. However, both in academic and business environment, email and web-based surveys are being used increasingly. The characteristics of each survey method are explained briefly in Table 9-2. FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHOICE OF A SURVEY METHOD One of the most important decisions a researcher must make is the way in which the data will be collected. The decision to choose among the various survey methods already discussed is affected by a number of factors.15 Some of them are described in the paragraphs that follow. 221 CHAPTER 9 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION Sampling The way a researcher plans to draw a sample is related to the best way to collect the data. Certain kinds of sampling approaches make it easier or more difficult to use one or another data collection strategy. If one is sampling from a list, the information on the list matters. Obviously, if a list lacks either good mailing or email addresses or good telephone numbers, trying to collect data by mail, phone, or mail/email is complicated. Random-digit dialing has improved the potential of telephone data collection strategies by giving every household with a telephone a chance to be selected. Of course, it is possible to use random-digit dialing strategies, which are explained in Chapter 10, merely to sample and make initial contact with households, followed by collecting data using some other mode. Once a household has been reached, one can ask for a physical or email address, to permit either a mail or email questionnaire to be sent or an interviewer to visit. Such designs are particularly useful when one is looking for a rare population, because both the sampling and the screening via telephone are relatively less expensive than doing the same task with a personal interviewer. Another sampling issue to consider is designating a respondent. If the sample frame is a list of individuals, any procedure, including mail, is feasible. Many surveys, however, entail designating a specific respondent at the time of data collection. If a questionnaire is mailed to a household or organization, the researcher has little control over who actually completes it. Therefore, the involvement of an interviewer is a critical aid if respondent designation is an issue. Type of Population The reading and writing skills of the population and its motivation to cooperate are two salient considerations in choosing a mode of data collection. Self-administered approaches to data collection place more of a burden on the respondent’s reading and writing skills than do interviewer procedures. Respondents who are not very well educated, whose reading and writing skills in English are less than facile (but who can speak English), people who do not see well, and people who are somewhat ill or tire easily will find an interviewer-administered survey easier than filling out a self-administered form. Another problem for self-administered surveys is getting people to return a completed questionnaire. People who are particularly interested in the research problem tend to be most likely to return self-administered questionnaires.16 Question Form Generally speaking, if one is going to use one of the self-administered questionnaire methods, it is best to use closed-end questions—that is, questions that can be answered by simply checking a box or circling the proper response from a set provided by the researcher. Second, and more important, self-administered open-ended questions often do not produce useful data. With no interviewer present to probe incomplete answers for clarity and to meet consistent question objectives, the answers are not often comparable across respondents, and they will be difficult to code. There are question forms (including those with complex descriptions of situations or events and those requiring pictures or other visual cues) that cannot be adapted to the telephone. If such measurement is a critical part of a survey, some form other than the telephone survey probably is needed. Question Content 222 Researchers have argued persuasively that one or another of the strategies should have an advantage when dealing with sensitive topics. Self-administered surveys are thought to be best, because the respondent does not have to admit directly to an interviewer a socially undesirable FACTORS AFFECTING THE CHOICE OF A SURVEY METHOD or negatively valued characteristic or behavior. Others have argued that telephone surveys lend an air of impersonality to the interview process that should help people report negative events or behaviors. Moreover, random-digit dialing at least provides the option of having a virtually anonymous survey procedure, because the interviewer need not know the name or location of the respondent. Still others argue that personal interviews are the best way to ask sensitive questions, because interviewers have an opportunity to build rapport and establish the kind of trust that is needed for respondents to report potentially sensitive information. An entirely different aspect of question content that may affect the mode of data collection is the difficulty of the reporting task. In some surveys, researchers want to ask about events or behaviors that are difficult to report with accuracy, because they extend over a period of time or are quite detailed. In such cases, reporting accuracy may benefit from a chance to consult records or to discuss the questions with other family members. The standard interview is a quick questionand-answer process that provides little such opportunity; this is especially true for telephone interviews. Self-administered procedures provide more time for thought, for checking records, and for consulting with other family members. Response Rates The rate of response is likely to be much more salient than other considerations in the selection of a data collection procedure. Obviously, one of the strengths of group-administered surveys, when they are feasible, is the high rate of response. Generally speaking, when students in classrooms or workers in job settings are asked to complete questionnaires, the rate of response can approach 100 percent. There is no doubt that the problem of nonresponse is central to the use of self-administered surveys. If one simply mails questionnaires to a general population sample without an appropriate follow-up procedure, the rate of return is likely to be less than 10 percent. In cases of short and well-formatted questionnaires, email surveys can be an efficient way to collect information in a short period of time. It would be relatively easy for a participant to fill in the questionnaire, and email it back to the surveyor, resulting in quicker responses than mail surveys. It would also be economical to email reminders, which would help increase response rates. However, fax surveys would perform better when Internet penetration is low. The effectiveness of telephone strategies in producing high response rates depends in part on the sampling scheme. Response rates in some urban areas benefit from using the telephone, whereas suburban and rural rates are usually lower for telephone surveys than when a personal interviewer is used. Using the telephone permits better coverage of units in buildings with security systems and neighborhoods where interviewers are reluctant to go in the evening. As discussed earlier, the issue of nonresponse bias may appear more pertinent for surveys with low response rates. This is especially true in the international context. The key to addressing the nonresponse bias is in ensuring the representativeness of the responding sample. Even surveys with relatively high response rates (e.g., 70–80%) may be just as susceptible to nonresponse bias as those with relatively low response rates (e.g., 30–40%). Therefore, understanding the nature of potential nonresponse bias should be considered to be of importance while conducting surveys. Table 9-3 provides the response rates for various countries. Costs The great appeal of mail or email and telephone survey procedures is that in most cases they cost less than personal interviews. Survey costs depend on a multitude of factors. Some of the more salient factors are the amount of professional time required to design the questionnaire, the questionnaire length, the geographic dispersion of the sample, the availability and interest of the sample, the callback procedures, respondent selection rules, and the availability of trained staff. Although on the surface mail survey costs might appear to be lowest, the cost of postage, of clerical time for mailing, and of printing questionnaires turns out not to be trivial. Moreover, 223 CHAPTER 9 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION TABLE 9-3 Response Rates for a Sample of Countries Country Survey & Response Rate (effective sample size) United Kingdom: Confederation of British Industry Industry 45% (2000), Retail 22% (1000), Investment 19% (2000), Services 20% (1000). South Africa: Bureau for Economic Research 40–45% across retail/wholesale, manufacturing, motor trade and contractors (building related). Total sample of around 3000. Canada: Statistics Bureau Business conditions for manufacturing (55%). Finland: Statistics Bureau Consumer Survey 74% (2,200). Austria: WIFO Manufacturing 30%, Construction 30%, Services 34%. These are panel response rates; response rates of recruits are lower. France: INSEE Industry 81% (4000), Investment 77% (4000), Retail 82% (5,000), Services 76% (4500), Construction 84% (5,000). Netherlands: Statistics Office Industry 90%. Slovenia: Statistics Office Consumer Survey 68% (1500), Industry 91% (600), Construction 92% (300), Services 92% (520), Retail 82% (800). Japan: Central Bank Whole economy: TANKAN survey 95%. Germany: IFO Manufacturing 90%, Construction 70%, Overall including other sectors 80%. Slovak Republic: Statistics Office Industry 75% (500), Construction 85% (420), Retail 60% (420), Services 63% (500). Statistics Norway Business Tendency Survey for Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying 85% (700). China Whole economy 95%. SOURCE: OECD Report on “Assessing and minimising the impact of non-response on survey estimates,” OECD Statistics Directorate, November 2005. if there are telephone follow-ups, the expense gets higher. Email and web-based surveys can cost the least since no long-distance telephone charges are present and there are minimal administrative costs. Further, there is no need to reproduce the questionnaires. Available Facilities 224 The facilities and staff availability should be considered in choosing a data collection mode. Developing an interviewing staff is costly and difficult. Attrition rates are generally high for newly trained interviewers. Many new interviewers are not very good at enlisting the cooperation of respondents, producing high refusal rates at the start. In addition, people who are good at training and supervising interviewers are not easy to find. Thus, one very practical consideration for anyone thinking about doing an interviewer-conducted survey is the ability to execute a professional data collection effort. The available facilities are a crucial factor in the choice of a survey method in the international context. The question that has to be evaluated is whether local researchers must be used in conducting the survey or whether to use foreign researchers. In considering whether to use local researchers or import foreign researchers with specific skills, a number of factors need to be evaluated. This question arises particularly in the context of developing countries, where research staff with specific skills, such as the ability to conduct in-depth interviews or focus groups, or skills in research design and analysis, may not be readily available. The major advantage of using local researchers for qualitative research or in research design is that they will know the local culture and people, as well as the language, and hence be best able to understand local cultural differences. On the other hand, local researchers may have more limited research experience than foreign staff and may not have the same specialist skills. In interviewing, they may have difficulties in adopting ETHICAL ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION a neutral or objective stance relative to respondents, or may lack familiarity with the design of a sophisticated research instrument. In some cases, there may be a scarcity of local researchers with even the minimum required skills, thus necessitating consideration of importing foreign researchers. A second issue is that of training field interviewers. This is particularly critical in cases where a pool of experienced interviewers is not readily available. In political and social surveys conducted in developing countries, extensive training programs have been developed for interviewing. Upscale individuals in leadership positions, such as village headmen, teachers, and prefects, have been found to be good interviewers in these situations. Duration of Data Collection The time involved in data collection varies by mode. Mail surveys usually take two months to complete. A normal sequence involves mailing the questionnaires and waiting for the responses. If the response rate is poor, then some more questionnaires are mailed and, finally, some telephone or in-person follow-up is done if the second wave of mailing also does not produce a good response rate. At the other extreme, it is quite feasible to do telephone or email surveys in a few days. Surveys done in a very short period of time pay a cost in nonresponse, because some people cannot be reached during any short period. However, telephone and email surveys can be done more quickly than mail or personal interview surveys of comparable size. ETHICAL ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION Survey research is an objective process and therefore has explicit guidelines and principles. However, it takes place in a subjective context, and thus is vulnerable to distortion by its producers and perceivers. Misrepresentation of the research itself through the use of inadequate sampling procedures or volunteers to obtain so-called “survey” information will be discussed in Chapter 14. Misrepresentation of the data collection process stems from two principal sources. The first is the representation of a marketing activity other than research, as research. The second is the abuse of respondents’ rights during the data collection process under the rationale of providing betterquality research. Consumers expect to be sold and to be surveyed, and they expect to be able to tell the difference without great difficulty. When a selling or marketing activity uses the forms and language of survey research in order to mask the real nature of the activity being performed, it violates the public trust. Classic examples of this type of practice are the following: 1. The use of survey techniques for selling purposes. In this case, a person answers a few questions only to find him/herself suddenly eligible to buy a specific product or service. The misuse of the survey approach as a disguise for sales canvassing is a widespread practice that shows no signs of abating. 2. The use of survey techniques to obtain names and addresses of prospects for direct marketing. These efforts are usually conducted by mail. Questionnaires about products or brands are sent to households, and response is encouraged by the offer of free product samples to respondents. The listing firms compile the information by implying to the prospective customer that he or she has been interviewed in a market study.17 In both of these cases, the consumer is not told that the company conducting the survey is in a business other than research. The harm caused by this practice is that legitimate research is given a bad name in the eyes of consumers. Both response rates and response quality are jeopardized. Even companies that practice legitimate research can violate the rights of respondents by deliberately engaging in a number of practices such as: ■ Disguising the purpose of a particular measurement, such as a free draw or free product choice question 225 CHAPTER 9 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: ISSUES IN DATA COLLECTION ■ Deceiving the prospective respondent as to the true duration of the interview ■ Misrepresenting the compensation in order to gain cooperation ■ Not mentioning to the respondent that a follow-up interview will be made ■ Using projective tests and unobtrusive measures to circumvent the need for a respondent’s consent ■ Using hidden tape recorders to record personal interviews (or recording phone conversations without the respondent’s permission) ■ Conducting simulated product tests in which the identical product is tried by the respondent except for variations in characteristics, such as color, that have no influence on the quality of a product ■ Not debriefing the respondent18 Many of these practices cannot be condoned under any circumstances, and others present the conscientious researcher with a serious dilemma. Under certain circumstances, disguising the nature of the research hypotheses may be the only feasible method by which to collect the necessary data. Yet these practices have the potential to create biased data and suspicion or resentment that later may be manifested in a refusal to participate in subsequent studies. Both the misrepresentation of research and the abuse of respondents’ rights during the legitimate research interviewing process involve consumer deception. This has two implications. From a business perspective, if public willingness to cooperate with the research process is adversely affected, the long-term statistical reliability of marketing research is jeopardized. From a social perspective, consumer deception violates basic business ethics. The responsibility of business to society rests on a fundamental concern for the advancement of professional business practices. Marketing research depends on mutual trust and honesty between the business community and society. Deception undermines the trust by using people as mere instruments to accomplish unstated purposes. Other ethical issues in data collection arise even when the respondent is not being deceived. One of the most important is invasion of privacy. A basic criterion of good research is respect for the privacy of the individual, yet legitimate research is always to some extent intrusive in nature. Excessive interviewing in certain metropolitan areas, especially in those popular for test markets, can be perceived by consumers as violating their basic right to privacy. A recent telephone survey with 300 respondents found that 57 percent had been interviewed at some time in the past and 50 percent had been interviewed during the past year. This type of overinterviewing may result in consumers feeling resentful and less willing to cooperate fully. If they suspect that participation in one interview leads to further requests for interviews, they will be more likely to refuse. Ethics in Online Data Collection 226 With more people taking to the Internet, online data collection has become an attractive option for all types of research. People flock to “chat rooms” and message boards to share experiences or thoughts or ideas with “virtual” strangers, thus making an abundance of social and behavioral information available on the ’Net. The Internet thus offers an ideal medium for collecting data from widely dispersed populations at relatively low cost and in less time than similar efforts in the physical world.19 While offering the comfort of data collection from a single physical location, the Internet does raise concerns about the ethical and legal dimensions of such research. Even when respondents choose to remain anonymous, privacy issues and the unclear distinction between public and private domains make it possible for researchers to record their online interactions without the knowledge or consent of the respondents. QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS This is all the more important when it comes to social and behavioral research where the confidentiality of the respondents may not be maintained. For instance, in a study about sexually abused survivors,20 researchers had collected and analyzed information from an online support group, on condition of anonymity. Though the published report did not disclose the names of the participants, it quoted the text of the participant’s postings as they were, making it possible for the respondents to identify themselves. Also for a determined reader of the report, it would be easy to trace the message back to the participant, if the name of the studied group were known. Thus, while the Internet does offer logistical comforts in data collection, it raises serious questions about interpretation and applicability guidelines governing online data collection. Summary There are bound to be a number of errors when surveys are conducted, some of which can be controlled and others of which cannot be controlled. A researcher should know all the potential sources of errors and should try to reduce their impact on the survey findings. This is a good research practice and will lead to more robust results. The choice of a survey method, that is, whether to use self-administered, or telephone or personal interviews, is determined by a number of factors. A knowledge of these factors will make it easier for the researcher to decide among the various methods. The most important factors are the sampling plan to be employed, the type of population to be surveyed, the response rates required, the budget for the survey, and the available resources. A number of factors may be important for the choice of survey method other than those discussed here. It depends on the particular study, but the factors listed in the text are the most common ones. All data collection methods are susceptible to misrepresentation by the researchers. Two principal sources of this misrepresentation are disguising the true purpose of a marketing activity, such as selling, by calling it marketing research, or abusing respondents’ rights during a legitimate data collection process. Both of these practices involve a disregard of professional business ethics. Maintaining high standards of business ethics while collecting data is the obligation of all responsible researchers. Questions and Problems 1. How would you overcome some of the problems you might anticipate in designing a survey to establish the kind of paint used by the “do-ityourself” market when the members of this sample last redecorated a room? 2. How would you balance the requirements of improving the quality of interviews against any ethical considerations that may arise? 3. Is the biasing effect of an interviewer more serious in a personal or telephone interview? What steps can be taken to minimize this biasing effect in these two types of interviews? 4. People tend to respond to surveys dealing with topics that interest them. How would you exploit this fact to increase the response rate in a survey of attitudes toward the local urban transit system, in a city where the vast majority of people drive to work or to shop? 5. If you were a marketing research manager, would you permit the following if they were important to the usefulness of a study? a. Telling the respondent the interview would take only two or three minutes when it usually took four minutes and a follow-up 10-minute interview was employed. b. Telling the respondent the questionnaire would be anonymous but coding it so that the respondent could be identified (so that additional available information about the respondent’s neighborhood could be used). c. Secretly recording (or videotaping) a focusgroup interview. d. Saying the research was being conducted by a research firm instead of your own company. 6. You are product manager for Brand M butter, a nationally known brand. Brand M has been declining in absolute level of sales for the last four consecutive months. What information, if any, that could be obtained from respondents would be useful for determining the cause or causes of this decline? 7. What are the general advantages and disadvantages associated with obtaining information by questioning and by observation? Which method provides more control over the sample? 8. Innovative Marketing Consultant has been contracted to conduct a job-satisfaction survey among the 2,470 employees of United Machine Tools, Inc., Dayton, Ohio. The management insists that the questionnaire be comprehensive and incorporate all the views of the respondent in order to improve the work environment. a. What factors should Innovative Marketing Consultant consider in choosing the survey method to be used? 227 b. Which question form would be most likely to supply management with the information it has requested? c. Design a sample questionnaire that Innovative Marketing Consultant will use in conducting the job-satisfaction survey. d. What possible sources of survey error might be encountered? e. United Machine Tools, Inc., has a wholly owned subsidiary in Madras, India. What additional factors must Innovative Marketing Consultant consider in choosing the survey method to assess the job-satisfaction levels of the employees at the Madras plant? 9. Mark Hirst, a high school student in Sydney, Australia, developed an innovatively shaped surfboard that radically increased the number of maneuvers a surfer could perform in low surf. In his enthusiasm to research the market, he developed a comprehensive seven-page questionnaire to be completed by customers and distributed it among surf supply stores. a. How will the length of the questionnaire affect the response rate? b. What possible biases could arise from Mark’s sampling method? 10. Families for the Future, a nonprofit organization formed to promote a return to the family values of the 1950s in the United States, is conducting a mail survey to determine the level of domestic violence and its causes. The organization plans to survey families in urban areas in four cities across the United States. a. What are the possible sources of survey error in this study? b. How might the study be redesigned to eliminate these errors? End Notes 1. A. N. Oppenheim, Questionnaire Design and Attitude Measurement. New York: Basic Books, 1966. 2. George S. Day, “The Threats to Marketing Research,” Journal of Marketing Research, 12, November 1975, pp. 462–467. 3. Frederick Wiseman and Mariane Schafer, “If Respondents Won’t Respond, Ask Nonrespondents Why,” Marketing News, September 9, 1977, pp. 8–9; Susan Kraft, “Who Slams the Door on Research?,” American Demographics, September 1991, p. 14. 4. A. Ossip, “Likely Improvements in Data Collection Methods—What Do They Mean for Day-to-Day Research Management?,” Journal of Advertising Research, Research Currents, October/November 1986, pp. RC9–RC12. 5. Arthur Saltzman, “Improving Response Rates in Disk-by-Mail Surveys,” Marketing Research, 5, Summer 1993, pp. 32–39. 6. Charles F. Cannel, Lois Oksenberg, and Jean M. Converse, “Striving for Response Accuracy: Experiments in New Interviewing Techniques,” Journal of Marketing Research, 14, August 1977, pp. 306–315. 7. W. Cook, “Telescoping and Memory’s Other Tricks,” Journal of Advertising Research, 87, February–March 1987, pp. 5–8. 8. James Julbert and Donald R. Lehmann, “Reducing Error in Question and Scale Design: A Conceptual Framework,” Decision Sciences, 6, January 1975, pp. 166–173. 9. Bill Iuso, “Concept Testing: An Appropriate Approach,” Journal of Marketing Research, 12, May 1975, pp. 228–231. 10. Del I. Hawkins and Kenneth A. Coney, “Uninformed Response Error in Survey Research,” Journal of Marketing Research, 13, August 1981, pp. 370–374. 228 11. William D. Wells, “The Influence of Yea Saying Response Style,” Journal of Advertising Research, 1, June 1963, pp. 8–18. 12. Donald P. Warwick and Charles A. Lininger, The Sample Survey: Theory and Practice. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975, pp. 198, 203. 13. J. Freeman and E. W. Butler, “Some Sources of Interviewer Variance in Surveys,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 1976, pp. 84–85. 14. Good discussions of what can be found in Warwick and Lininger are in Robert Ferber, ed., Handbook of Marketing Research, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, pp. 2.124–2.132, 2.147–2.159. 15. This section is adapted from Floyd J. Fowler, Jr., Survey Research Methods. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1993. 16. T. Heberlein and R. Baumgartener, “Factors Affecting Response Rates to Mailed Questionnaires: A Quantitative Analysis of the Published Literature,” American Sociological Review, 1978, pp. 447–462. 17. ARF Position Paper, “Phony or Misleading Polls,” Journal of Advertising Research, Special Issue, 26, January 1987, pp. RC3–RC8. 18. George S. Day, “The Threats to Marketing Research,” Journal of Marketing Research, 12, November 1975, pp. 462–467. 19. M. S. Frankel and S. Siang, “Ethical and Legal Aspects of Human Subjects Research in Cyberspace. A Report of a Workshop. June 10–11, 1999.” American Association for the Advancement of Science, November 1999, http://shr.aaas.org/projects/human_subjects/ cyberspace/report.pdf 20. J. Finn and M. Lavitt, “Computer Based Self-Help Groups for Sexual Abuse Survivors,” Social Work with Groups, 17, 1994, pp. 21–46. CASE 9-1 Essex Markets Essex Markets was a chain of supermarkets in a mediumsized California city. For six years it had provided its customers with unit pricing of grocery products. The unit prices were provided in the form of shelf tags that showed the price of the item and the unit price (the price per ounce, for example). The program was costly. The tags had to be prepared and updated. Further, because they tended to become dislodged or moved, considerable effort was required to make sure that they were current and in place. A study was proposed to evaluate unit pricing. Among the research questions in the study were the following: ■ What percentage of shoppers used unit pricing? ■ With what frequency was unit pricing in use? ■ What types of shoppers used unit pricing? ■ For what product classes was it used most frequently? ■ Was it used to compare package sizes and brands or to evaluate store-controlled labels? It was determined that a five-page questionnaire completed by around 1,000 shoppers would be needed. The questionnaire could be completed in the store in about 15 minutes, or the respondent could be asked to complete it at home and mail it in. Source: Prepared by Bruce McElroy and David A. Aaker as a basis for class discussion. ■ What percentage of shoppers was aware of unit pricing? Questions for Discussion Specify how the respondents should be approached in the store. Write out the exact introductory remarks that you would use. Should the interview be in the store, or should the questionnaire be self-administered at home and mailed in, or should some other strategy be employed? If a self-administered questionnaire is used, write an introduction to it. What could be done to encourage a high response rate? CASE 9-2 More Ethical Dilemmas in Marketing Research 2. The following scenarios are similar to those you saw in Chapter 1, but bear directly on the rights of respondents in a research study. As before, your assignment is to decide what action to take in each instance. Be prepared to justify your decision. 1. Your company is supervising a study of restaurants conducted for the Department of Corporate and Consumer Affairs. The data, which have already been collected, included specific buying information and prices paid. Respondent organizations have been promised confidentiality. The ministry demands that all responses be identified by business name. Their rationale is that they plan to repeat the study and wish to limit sampling error by returning to the same respondents. Open bidding requires that the government maintain control of the sample. What action would you take? 3. You are a project director on a study funded by a somewhat unpopular federal policing agency. The study is on marijuana use among young people in a community and its relationship, if any, to crime. You will be using a structured questionnaire to gather data for the agency on marijuana use and criminal activities. You believe that if you reveal the name of the funding agency and/or the actual purposes of the study to respondents, you will seriously depress response rates and thereby increase nonresponse bias. What information would you disclose to respondents? You are employed by a market research company. A manufacturer of female clothing has retained your firm to conduct a study for them. The manufacturer wants you to know something about how women choose clothing, such as blouses and sweaters. The manufacturer wants to conduct group interviews, supplemented by a session which would be devoted to observing the women trying on clothing, in order to discover which types of garments are chosen first, how thoroughly they touch 229 4. and examine the clothing, and whether they look for and read a label or price tag. The client suggests that the observations be performed unobtrusively by female observers at a local department store, via a one-way mirror. One of your associates argues that this would constitute an invasion of privacy. What action would you take? You are the market research director in a manufacturing company. The project director requests permission to use ultraviolet ink in precoding 230 questionnaires on a mail survey. Although the accompanying letter refers to a confidential survey, the project director needs to be able to identify respondents to permit adequate cross-tabulation of the data and to save on postage costs if a second mailing is required. What action would you take? Source: Provided with the permission of Professor Charles Weinberg, University of British Columbia. INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS 10 Learning Objectives ■ Introduce the different kinds of survey methods. ■ Discuss the survey methods and describe the process involved using each method. ■ Enumerate the advantages and disadvantages of the survey method. ■ Discuss future trends in survey methods. ■ Elucidate the problems that the researcher faces in conducting international surveys. The importance of reliable and timely data for marketing intelligence can be gauged if we realize how an uncertain future could make the plans of a corporation go haywire. It is thus extremely important that the survey methods used be very reliable. There are as many survey methods as there are different forms of communication technology. As the technology for communication progresses, the number of survey methods also proliferates. The web and recent advances in PDA technology have introduced many new possibilities for conducting error-free surveys. Hence, a researcher has to know the mechanics of each method clearly, and also how it performs compared to the other methods. The choice among different survey methods is never an easy one. The factors affecting the choice of a survey method were discussed in Chapter 9, but without a thorough knowledge of the various methods, it will always be difficult to choose among them. In this chapter, the three most prevalent methods of conducting surveys—personal interviews, telephone interviews, and self-administered surveys—are discussed in detail. The latest trends in survey methods are also discussed. Conducting international surveys leads to a number of new problems that are not encountered in domestic research. These problems and possible solutions are also discussed briefly. COLLECTING DATA Recent studies have revealed that only about 10 to 15 percent of consumers contacted at home will participate in a survey. American consumers are confronted by about 250 surveys (telephone, email and self-administered surveys) a year. One approach to offset such an adverse reaction to surveys is the relationship survey, a customer satisfaction survey that not only measures a vendor’s competency with the customer but also provides a closed-loop feedback process for sharing the results with participants. The customer satisfaction survey can be turned into a relationship-building process, and to pursue this opportunity, one must be prepared to deliver the survey results in a detached, professional manner. Below are some guidelines for doing so: 1. Reviewing data—Carefully read the results of the survey, review all comments, and note any common or consistent areas of dissatisfaction or satisfaction. Look at the information objectively. 2. Getting started—Create a list of the “good” and “bad” aspects of the survey results. Revise your list as you see fit. 231 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS 3. Setting the feedback objective—Before preparing the feedback vehicle, create a clear objective statement. 4. Customer presentation—There are four basic ways the information can be shared with the participants: by newsletter, with a letter from the company, with a group presentation, and with one-on-one presentations. 5. Sharing responsibility—Emphasize the joint-planning aspect as you get and keep the customers involved. A joint effort will lead to better solutions. 6. Handling issues you cannot fix—Be honest with customers, and point out that if many customers have the same complaint, the problem will be immediately investigated as thoroughly as possible. 7. Working the issue resolution with your account—Try to resolve any issues that have developed, but remember to keep your promises realistic.1 Personal Interviewing The different methods of conducting personal interviews can be classified based on the respondents to be contacted and on the means of contacting them. In this section the different types of personal interview methods are discussed, as well as their advantages and limitations. Process. The personal interviewing process is characterized by the interaction of four entities: the researcher, the interviewer, the interviewee, and the interview environment. Each of the three participants has certain basic characteristics, both inherent and acquired. Each also has general research knowledge and experience, which vary a great deal among them. Collectively, these characteristics influence the interviewing process and, ultimately, the interview itself. During a personal interview, the interviewer and the interviewee interact and simultaneously influence one another in an interview environment. The choice of an interview environment is made by the researcher, depending on the type of data to be collected. A brief discussion of the various personal interview methods, classified according to interview environment, follows. At Home or Work Interviewing. The at home or work interview, in which consumers are interviewed in person in their homes or at their office, has traditionally been considered the best survey method. This conclusion was based on a number of factors. First, the door-to-door interview is a personal, face-to-face interview with all the attendant advantages—feedback from the respondent, the ability to explain complicated tasks, the ability to use special questionnaire techniques that require visual contact to speed up the interview or improve data quality, the ability to show the respondent product concepts and other stimuli for evaluation, and so on. Second, the consumer is seen as being at ease in a familiar, comfortable, secure environment. The door-to-door interview remains the only viable way to do long, in-depth, or detailed interviews and certain in-home product tests. In addition, the door-to-door survey is the only way currently available to obtain anything approaching a probability sample in a study that involves showing concepts or other stimuli to consumers. 232 Executive Interviewing. The term executive interviewing is used by marketing researchers to refer to the industrial equivalent of door-to-door interviewing. This type of survey involves interviewing business people at their offices concerning industrial products or services. This type of interviewing is very expensive. First, individuals involved in the purchase decision for the product in question must be identified and located. Once a qualified person is located, the next step is to get that person to agree to be interviewed and to set a time for the interview. Finally, an interviewer must go to the particular place at the appointed time. Long waits are frequently encountered; cancellations are not uncommon. This type of survey requires the very best interviewers, because frequently they must conduct interviews on topics about which they know very little. COLLECTING DATA Mall Intercept Surveys. Shopping-center interviews are a popular solution when funds are limited and the respondent must see, feel, or taste something. Often, they are called shopping mall intercept surveys, in recognition of the interviewing procedures. Interviewers, stationed at entrances or selected locations in a mall, randomly approach respondents and either question them at that location or invite them to be interviewed at a special facility in the mall. These facilities have equipment that is adaptable to virtually any demonstration requirement, including interview rooms and booths, kitchens with food preparation areas, conference rooms for focus groups, closed-circuit television and sound systems, monitoring systems with one-way mirrors, and online video-screen interviewing terminals. Since interviewers don’t travel and respondents are plentiful, survey costs are low. However, shopping center users, who are not representative of the general population, visit the center with different frequencies, and shop at different stores within the center.2 These problems can be minimized with the special sampling procedures described in Chapter 14. The number of people who agree to be interviewed in the mall will increase with incentives.3 Mall intercept surveys, known for their low cost, have recently been plagued by cost/quality issues. The desire to provide “better,” “faster,” and “cheaper” service has cost the research/opinion industry money, quality, and efficiency of item and resources, and the satisfaction of the customer. In situations where significantly low incidence levels are expected or when the data collected must meet special parameters for analysis or modeling, small bases (number of interviews in a given location) are appropriate. However, key players are mistakenly choosing smaller bases (and therefore, more locations on a single project), assuming that it will lead to faster completion of the interviewing process and save money. If purchasers of data collection services consider larger base sizes whenever possible, the research process can be positively affected in the following ways: ■ Consistency in the number of quality interviewers working on the project. ■ Increased sample representatives at individual mall locations. ■ Decreased “real” costs—such as shipping, travel, phone, facsimile, and production of concepts, prototypes, and videos—associated with more markets. ■ More efficient use of the available respondent pool at the mall. ■ Decreased briefing time necessary to train interviewers properly on each project.4 Purchase Intercept Technique.5 The purchase intercept technique (PIT) is different from but related to the mall intercept approach. This technique combines both in-store observation and in-store interviewing to assess shopping behavior and the reasons behind that behavior. Like a mall intercept, the PIT involves intercepting consumers while they are in a shopping environment; however, the PIT is administered at the time of an observable, specific product selection, as compared to consumers in a mall location. The researcher unobtrusively observes the customer make a purchase in a particular product category; then the researcher intercepts the customer for an interview as soon as the purchase has been made. The major advantage of the PIT is that it aids buyer recall. Interviewing at the point of purchase minimizes the time lapse between the purchase and data collection, and can provide a neutral set of memory cues for the respondent while the purchase is still salient. Apart from difficulties in gaining access to stores, the principal disadvantage of the PIT is that it samples only purchasers and not anyone else who might be influencing the decision on what to buy or where to shop. Omnibus Surveys. Omnibus surveys are regularly scheduled (weekly, monthly, or quarterly) personal interview surveys with questions provided by a number of separate clients. The questionnaires, based on which the interviews are conducted, will contain sequences of questions on different topics. Each sequence of questions is provided by one client, and the whole questionnaire is made up of such sequences of questions, on diverse topics, from different clients. 233 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS There are impressive advantages to the omnibus approach whenever only a limited number of personal interview questions is needed. The total costs are minimized, since the rates are based on the number of questions asked and tabulated, and the cost of the survey is shared by the clients. The results are available quickly, because all the steps are standardized and scheduled in advance. The regularity of the interview schedule and the assurance that the independent samples are matched make this a suitable base for continuous “tracking” studies and before–after studies. Some omnibus operators offer split-run facilities, so that half of the sample receives one stimulus (one version of a question or concept) and the other, matched half, gets another version. Also, by accumulating over several waves of interviews, it is possible to conduct studies of low-incidence activities, such as the extent of salt-free diets and shortwave transmitter ownership. Advantages. An interviewer, face to face with a respondent, can do a great deal to arouse initial interest and thereby increase the rate of participation and continuing rapport. To reduce the likelihood of a respondent refusing to finish the interview with an interviewer, it is also feasible to ask complex questions and enhance their meaning with pictorial and mechanical aids, clarify misunderstandings, and probe for more complete answers. For these reasons, the personal interview usually is preferred when a large amount of information is required and the questions are complex or involve tasks such as sorting cards into ordered piles or evaluating visual cues such as pictures of product concepts or mock-ups of advertisements. The personal interview questionnaire has a high degree of flexibility. For example, if the answer to “Have you ever heard of (a community agency)?” is “yes,” the interviewer asks questions A and B, but if the answer is “no,” the interviewer asks about the next agency. Generalizations about the accuracy of personal interview responses are hazardous. On one hand, interviewer probes and clarifications maximize respondent understanding and yield complete answers, especially to open-ended questions. Possibly offsetting these advantages are the problems of prestige seeking, social desirability, and courtesy biases discussed earlier. In relative terms, it seems that for questions about neutral topics, all three methods are equally satisfactory, whereas for embarrassing topics the personal interview is at a disadvantage. Finally, there is an advantage to having a personal interview when an explicit or current list of households or individuals is not available. The interviewer can be assigned to specific census tracts, blocks, or residences as defined by census data. Once a residence is chosen, the researcher can control who is interviewed and how much assistance is obtained from others in the household. 234 Limitations. Personal interview studies are time consuming, administratively difficult, and costly. The time requirements are understandable in light of the need to travel between interviews, set up appointments, and perhaps schedule return visits to complete interrupted interviews. Only 30 to 40 percent of an interviewer’s time on the job is devoted to interviewing itself. One can use more interviewers to reduce the elapsed time, but then problems of quality control increase. Because of the time and administrative problems, the cost per completed personal interview tends to be higher than it is for mail or telephone surveys. Direct comparisons of the costs of different methods are difficult, in part because of the wide variability in the implementation of each method. Table 10-1 provides some approximate indices of the direct cost of a completed interview, to help compare data collection methods. In 1996, an index value of 1.0 corresponded to a cost of $20.00. Thus, in 1996, one could expect a 40- to 60-minute personal interview on a national basis, with one callback and 10 percent validation, to cost between $50 (2.5 ⫻ $20.00) and $70.00 (3.5 ⫻ $20.00). This cost assumes that the study is conducted by a commercial research supplier and a general population is interviewed. If the sample to be interviewed consists of a particular segment, such as physicians, then a 40- to 60-minute interview would cost close to $200 per interview. Until recently, it was thought that the personal interview method was always the best way to reduce nonresponse bias. Interviewers can track down hard-to-find respondents and minimize COLLECTING DATA TABLE 10-1 Comparative Indices of Direct Costs per Completed Interview (Including Travel and Telephone Charges, Interviewer Compensation, Training, and Direct Supervision Expenses) Data Collection Method Index of Costa 1. Email and Mail Survey (costs depend on return rate, incentives, and followup procedure). 0.3–0.8 2. Telephone interviews a. Seven-minute interview with head of household in metropolitan area b. Fifteen-minute interview with small segment of national population from a central station 0.5–0.8 1.3–1.7 3. Personal interviews a. Ten-minute personal interview in middle-class suburban area (1 call-back and 10 percent validation) b. Forty- to 60-minute interview of national probability sample (1 call-back and 10 percent validation) c. Executive (VIP) interviews a 1.5–1.8 2.5–3.5 4.0–15.0⫹ In 1997, an index value of 1.0 corresponded to a cost of $20.00. refusals by being physically present at the door. Unfortunately, the costs of the callbacks needed to achieve high response rates are becoming excessive. This is especially a problem in inner-city areas, which interviewers are reluctant to visit and may refuse to enter at night even when they work in teams. Screening questions are used in marketing research to find people with particular behavioral, attitudinal, or demographic characteristics. Screening questions are usually asked first to minimize fieldwork costs or to enhance a study’s cost-effectiveness. Unfortunately, this could cause self-selection bias, because the respondents receive clues as to what the researchers want to know and they have the option to refuse to participate. “To the point” screening questions can offer a signal as to who qualifies for the survey and who doesn’t. Although a screener saves time and money by asking screening questions at the beginning of the survey, as soon as self-selection bias occurs the survey is no longer random or representative. From the results of many studies involving funerals, careers, pets, and night clubs, it was determined that it is wise to begin by working with a sample frame that will minimize the number of screening questions needed. When that is not practical, researchers should use more buffer questions and write less obviously worded screeners to minimize self-selection bias. Although this may increase costs, the findings will be more accurate and the research more valuable. Ignoring the problem will cause survey validity along with confidence in the work to deteriorate.6 Telephone Interviewing The telephone interview gradually has become the dominant method for obtaining information from large samples, as the cost and nonresponse problems of personal interviews have become more acute. At the same time, many of the accepted limitations of telephone interviewing have been shown to be of little significance for a large class of marketing problems. Process. The telephone interviewing process generally is very similar to personal interviewing. Only certain unique aspects of telephone interviewing, such as selecting the telephone numbers, the call outcomes, the introduction, when to call, and call reports, are described below. Selecting Telephone Numbers. There are three basic approaches to obtaining telephone numbers when selecting study participants for telephone interviews. A researcher can use a prespecified list, 235 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS a directory, or a random dialing procedure. Prespecified lists—membership rosters, customer lists, or lists purchased from commercial suppliers of telephone numbers—are sometimes used for selected groups of people. This use, however, is not widespread in marketing research. The traditional approach to obtaining numbers has been to use a directory, one provided by either a telephone company or a commercial firm (for instance, the Polk crisscross directory). However, a directory may be inadequate for obtaining a representative sample of consumers or households. On the average, about 25 percent of the U.S. households that have telephones are not included in telephone directories. People who are voluntarily not listed in a telephone directory tend to have characteristics somewhat different from those listed. To overcome telephone directory nonrepresentativeness, many researchers now use randomdigit dialing when they interview consumers by telephone. In its most general form, complete random-digit dialing is a nondirectory procedure for selecting all 10 (area code, prefix or exchange, suffix) telephone number digits at random. Although this approach gives all households with telephones an approximately equal chance of being called, it has severe limitations. It is costly to implement, both in dollars and time, since not all possible telephone numbers are in service, and therefore many telephoning attempts are to nonexistent numbers. Additionally, complete random-digit dialing does not discriminate between telephone numbers in which a researcher is interested and those of no interest (numbers outside the geographic study area and those of business or government). Further, all the prefixes in the United States are distributed across the regular land lines (78 percent), cellular (10.5 percent), paging (4.6 percent), shared wireless (3.3 percent), and other (4 percent).7 A variation of the random-digit dialing procedure is systematic random-digit dialing (SRDD). In SRDD, a researcher specifies those telephone area codes and exchanges, or prefixes, from which numbers are to be selected. Thus, government, university, business, or exchanges not of interest (outside the geographic study area) are avoided. The researcher determines a starting number (seed point) plus a sampling interval—a constant number added systematically to the starting number and subsequent numbers generated, to obtain the list of telephone numbers to be called. For metropolitan areas, it is necessary to generate approximately four times as many telephone numbers as completed interviews desired, because of not-in-service numbers and the like. An illustration of the SRDD process is described in Marketing Research in Action 10-1. SRDD has several advantages. Because there is a random starting point, each telephone number has an equal chance of being called. Second, since telephone exchanges tend to cover specific geographic areas, a spatial focus is possible. Third, if the same number of telephone calls is attempted from each exchange studied, the resulting sample tends to have the same geographic dispersion as the original population. Finally, SRDD can be incorporated into a standard computer program. Another version of random-digit dialing is plus-one dialing, a directory- assisted, randomdigit-dialing telephone number selection procedure. Plus-one dialing consists of selecting a random sample of telephone numbers from one or more telephone directories, then adding the constant “1” to the last four digits of each number selected. This procedure increases the chances of an existing telephone number being obtained and also allows unlisted numbers to be included in the sample. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-1 An Illustration of the SRDD Process Suppose an interviewer wants to poll a thousand (n ⫽ 1,000) respondents on the eve of the presidential election in a particular area (with the area code prefix as 743). There are a total of ten thousand (k ⫽ 10,000) numbers with the prefix 743, that is, 743-0000 to 743-9999. The first step in the SRDD process is to compute the sampling interval (I) given by k兾n, which in this case is equal to 10. The interviewer then randomly chooses a telephone number in the interval 743-0000 to 743-0010. Once a number is chosen (say, 743-0005), then, to generate additional numbers, the value of I is added to each of the previously selected numbers. In other words, the telephone numbers to call would be 743-0005, 743-(0005 ⫹ I), 743-(0005 ⫹ 2I), . . . ., 743-[0005 ⫹ (n ⫺ 1)I]. 236 COLLECTING DATA TABLE 10-2 Call Outcomes and Recommendations to Deal With Them Call Outcome Recommendation The telephone is not in service. Eliminate the number from further consideration. The number dialed is busy. Call the number again later, because the characteristics of the people whose lines are busy will be different from those whose lines are not. No one answers the call. Call the number back later, because the characteristics of the people who are not at home will be different from those who are at home. The number called is a fax number. Send a fax to the respondent requesting his or her time to conduct the interview, and get his or her telephone number. An answering machine comes on. Leave a message on the answering machine saying who you are and the purpose of your call. Call the number again after some time. The call is answered by someone other than the respondent. Find out when the respondent will be available and call back at that time. The person contacted is not in the sampling frame. Eliminate the number from further consideration. The call is answered by the person to be contacted. Conduct the interview. Call Outcomes. Once the telephone numbers have been selected, a call is made. Once a call has been attempted, eight possible outcomes can occur. The possible outcomes of a call attempt are as follows: The telephone number is not in service, the number dialed is busy, no one answers the phone, the number called is a fax number, an answering machine responds, the call is answered by someone other than the person to be contacted, the call results in contacting a person outside the sampling frame (the telephone line was given to someone else when the respondent relocated), and, finally, the call is answered by the actual respondent. Table 10-2 discusses the various call outcomes and the method to handle each outcome. The Introduction. One of the most important aspects of telephone interviewing, and the key to a successfully completed interview, is the introduction. For the interview to be completed successfully, the interviewer must gain immediate rapport with potential study participants. Gaining rapport requires a pleasant telephone voice (being male or female does not seem to matter) and a good introduction. It is important that the introduction introduce the topic of study and be brief. An overly long introduction tends to decrease cooperation and elicit refusals to participate. When to Call. To efficiently obtain a representative sample of study participants, telephone interviews should be attempted at times when prospective interviewees will most likely be available. For consumer interviews, telephone interviews should probably be attempted between 6 P.M. and 9 P.M. on weekdays, and 10 A.M. to 8 P.M. on weekends. Calling before 6 P.M. on weekdays decreases the chances of reaching working individuals, and calling after 9 P.M. incurs the wrath of those who are early to bed. On the other hand, the best time to reach homemakers or contact individuals at work is between 9 A.M. and 4:30 P.M. Call Reports. A call report is a form that has telephone numbers to be called and columns for interviewers to document their telephoning attempts—what day and time the call was made, the outcome, the length of the call, and so forth. Call reports provide records of calling experiences and are useful for managing data collection. 237 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS Advantages. Telephone interviews may be conducted either from a central location, at prescribed hours under close supervision, or from the interviewer’s home, unsupervised and at his or her own hours. The former is preferred because problems can be isolated quickly and greater uniformity is possible. Supervisors can double-record interviews by listening on an extension and can gradually weed out incompetent interviewers. Regardless of how the telephone interviews are conducted, the obvious advantages are the same: (1) More interviews can be conducted in a given time period, because no time is lost in traveling and locating respondents; (2) more hours of the day are productive, especially the evening hours when working women and singles are likely to be at home and apartment doors are locked; and (3) repeated callbacks at different times of the day can be made at very low cost. The key to the low costs for the latter surveys is the wide-area telephone service (WATS), which provides unlimited calls to a given zone in Canada or the United States for a fixed monthly charge. Overall, the telephone method dominates the personal interview with respect to speed, absence of administrative problems, and cost per completed interview. As we saw in Table 10-1, the costs of a telephone survey seldom will exceed two-thirds of the comparable costs of a personal interview.8 Costs can be reduced further with omnibus surveys. For better or worse, the telephone is an “irresistible intruder.” A ringing telephone literally compels us to answer. Long-distance calling brings a further dimension of urgency and importance to reaching the desired respondent. This tends to counteract the fact that it is easier for a person to terminate midway through a telephone interview. The telephone is a particularly effective method for gaining access to hard-to-reach people such as busy executives. The receptionist who thwarts the personal interviewer will readily connect a telephone interview request. Thus, Payne found that 94 percent of the interviews attempted with responsible persons in the 600 largest companies were completed successfully.9 The intrusiveness of the telephone, plus the ease of making callbacks, means that there should be less sample bias due to nonresponse. For most topics there is likely to be little difference in the accuracy of responses between telephone and personal interviews. The Survey Research Center (University of Michigan) found that similar aggregate results were obtained by the two methods in their quarterly interview of consumer intentions. However, less differentiated responses were obtained over the telephone.10 During the telephone interview, the respondent’s only impression of the interviewer is that conveyed by the voice. The lack of rapport is offset to a degree by lessened interviewer bias and greater anonymity of the situation. However, the research on whether the respondent will reply with greater candor to personal questions (such as alcohol consumption) is mixed. 238 Limitations. Relatively few of the problems with the telephone method are completely insurmountable. The most obvious problem is the inability to employ visual aids or complex tasks. For example, it does not appear feasible to ask respondents to retain in their minds the names of nine department stores and then ask them to choose one store. There have been solutions to this problem, including separate mention of individual stores and asking the respondent to treat the telephone push-buttons as a 10-point rating scale (from “1” for like it very much to “0” for don’t like it at all). A related problem with the telephone is that the interviewer must rely solely on verbal cues to judge the reaction and understanding of respondents. There is some controversy about the amount of information that can be collected in a telephone interview. Most telephone interviews are kept as short as 5 to 10 minutes, because of the belief that a bored or hurried respondent will be likely to hang up the phone. However, there is a tendency for respondents to underestimate the length of time spent on a telephone call. Therefore, 20- to 30-minute interviews are increasingly frequent and successful, but only with interesting topics and capable interviewers. A further limitation of telephone interviewing is the potential for sample bias, which is a consequence of some people being without phones, having unlisted phones, and telephone directories being unable to keep up with a mobile population. A subsequent chapter (chapter 14) on sampling will discuss some of the solutions to these sampling problems, as well as the use of callbacks to reduce the frequency of not-at-homes. COLLECTING DATA Finally, a recent National Health Interview Survey explored the efficacy of random digit dialing.11 During the first half of 2006, nearly 12.5 percent of American households did not have a landline phone. Among these people, 84 percent had at least one wireless phone; and for some other segments, wireless is the primary mode of communications. For instance, in targeting consumers aged between 18 and 24, nearly 25 percent have only a wireless phone. This means that a random digit dialing program would not be able to reach these consumers. Similarly, 44 percent of the swinging singles consumer segment uses cell phones. These new findings have wide implications on targeting consumers. Self-Administered Surveys The third major survey method is the self-administered survey. This type of survey can be emailed, mailed, faxed or simply handed to the respondent. In the self-administered interview method, no interviewer is involved. Even though this reduces the cost of the interview process, this technique has one major disadvantage: There is no one present to explain things to the respondent and clarify responses to open-ended questions. This results in the answers to most of the open-ended questions being totally useless. Some have argued, however, that the absence of an interviewer results in the elimination of interviewer bias. Self-administered interviews are often used in malls or other central locations where the researcher has access to a captive audience. Airlines frequently use this technique to get information about their services; the questionnaires are administered in flight. Many hotels, restaurants, and other service businesses provide brief questionnaires to patrons, to find out how they feel about the quality of service provided. The Process. Using a self-administered survey consists of identifying and locating potential study participants, deciding on the best way to get the questionnaire to those participants, and waiting for completed questionnaires to be returned. Substantively, the process is a series of distinct and often difficult decisions regarding the identification of study participants and the interview package. For example, for a mail survey you would need an outgoing envelope, cover letter, questionnaire, return envelope, and the incentives, if any, to be used. Unlike personal and telephone interviews, self-administered interviews require at least broad identification of the individuals to be sampled before data collection begins. Therefore, an initial task is to obtain a valid mail or email address, fax number or location to distribute the questionnaire to the study participants. This information can be obtained from customer lists, association or organization membership rosters, telephone directories, publication subscription lists, or commercial “list houses.” Regardless of its source, the information must be current and relate closely to the group being studied. As might be expected, obtaining a useful list is especially difficult when a list that is representative of the general population is desired. Decisions must also be made about the various elements to be contained in a self-administered survey. Although many of these decisions involve relatively mechanical elements, each decision influences both the response rate and the response quality. Some decisions that are to be considered are Method of addressing Cover letter Questionnaire length, content, layout, color, and format Method of notification; should there be a follow-up? Incentive to be given One decision area is method of notification. In both preliminary and follow-up notification, a researcher communicates with potential self-administered interview respondents more than once. Preliminary notification may also be used to screen, or qualify, individuals for study inclusion. This communication may be by postcard, letter, email or telephone. Follow-up communication methods include sending potential study participants postcards or letters, or telephoning them a few days after they receive the questionnaire to remind them to complete and return it as soon as possible. 239 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS Advantages. The most likely reason for choosing a mail survey is cost, but there are other reasons also, as illustrated by the decision of the Census Bureau to switch from a personal interview to a census by mail to gain “better results, including a shortening of the period for collecting the data and more reliable answers supplied directly by respondents instead of through a more-or-less inhibiting intermediary, the enumerator.”12 This approach worked well for the 2010 census, when forms were mailed to over 90 percent of American households, of which 90 percent were completed voluntarily. More recent tests, to larger segments of the population, have not been so encouraging. There is consistent evidence that self-administered surveys yield more accurate results— among those completing the survey. Because the questionnaire is answered at the respondent’s discretion, the replies are likely to be more thoughtful and others can be consulted for necessary information. Self-administered surveys generally are superior when sensitive or potentially embarrassing topics, such as sexual behavior and finances, are covered (so long as the respondent is convinced that the answers will be kept in confidence). For example, a study of Boston residents, which compared the three basic methods of data collection, found that each of them gave equivalent results for neutral topics. On sensitive topics, however, where socially undesirable responses were possible, there were large differences. On the question of legalizing abortion, 89 percent of mail survey respondents were in favor, compared to 62 and 70 percent of telephone and personal interview respondents, respectively.13 Limitations. The absence of an interviewer means that a large number of variables are controlled inadequately, including the following: ■ The identity of the respondent (Was it the addressee who answered, or someone else?) ■ Whom the respondent consults for help in answering questions ■ The speed of the response (The usual time lag before receipt of a questionnaire delays the study and makes the responses vulnerable to external events taking place during the study.)14 ■ The order in which the questions are exposed and answered (The respondent can look ahead to see where the questions are leading, so it is not possible to funnel questions from the general to the specific, for example.) ■ Respondent understanding of the questions (There is no opportunity to seek clarification of confusing questions or terms, so many respondents return their questionnaire partially completed.) 240 One consequence of these problems is that long questionnaires with complicated questions cannot be used without diminishing the response rate. As a rule of thumb, six to eight pages is the upper limit on topics of average interest to respondents.15 Self-administered surveys are limited to situations where a list (mailing addresses, email addresses, fax numbers, etc.) is available and the cost of the list is not prohibitive. Unfortunately, there are a number of possible flaws in all such lists: obsolescence, omissions, duplications, and so forth. This makes it difficult to find the ideal list, which consists entirely of the type of person to be contacted, and also represents all of those who exist. Great care must be taken at this stage to ensure that the study objectives can be achieved without excessive compromise. If the benefit of self-administered surveys is cost, then the bane is response rates. The response rate gives an indication of the number of questionnaires that have been returned. The Council of American Survey Research Organizations defines response rates as the ratio of the number of completed interviews with responding units to number of eligible responding units in the sample.16 Implementing the definition may be simple or complex, depending on the methods used to select the sample.17 The problem is not that acceptable response rates cannot be achieved, but rather that the rate is hard to forecast and there is substantial risk that an acceptable rate may not be achieved. Marketing Research in Action 10-2 illustrates how refusal rates are calculated. Many factors combine to influence the response rate, including (1) the perceived amount of work required, which in turn depends on the length of the questionnaire and the apparent ease with which it can be completed; (2) the intrinsic interest of the topic; (3) the characteristics of the COLLECTING DATA MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-2 Respondent Cooperation: Audit Update Yields Ways to Improve Results In early 1997, CMOR undertook a project to update refusal rate information. Forty CASRO and CMOR member firms were recruited to keep track of all their phone research for April 1997. This yielded 385 surveys with a total base of 243,597 interviews for which sample disposition data and some basic facts were provided about the subject matter and purpose of the survey, length of interview, client identification, type of samples, and use of incentives. Refusal rate was calculated using the industry-accepted definition as follows: Total Refused Refusal Rate ⫽ Total Contacts Total Refused ⫽ Initial Refusals ⫹ Breakoffs ⫹ Qualified Refusals Total Contacted ⫽ Total Refused ⫹ Eligible Respondents Not Available ⫹ Language Barrier ⫹ Completed Interviews The result was that keeping the interview length short improves cooperation: Interview Refusal Rate 5 minutes or less 32% 10 minutes 45% 15 minutes 46% 20 minutes 56% Over 20 minutes 57% Disclosing the length of the interview in the “intro” seems to improve cooperation regardless of the length of the interview (the base sizes for disclosed are small): Refusal Rate Interview Length Disclosed Length Not Disclosed 5 minutes or less 18% 38% 6–10 minutes 35% 46% 11–15 minutes 41% 47% 16 minutes or more 42% 55% Honest disclosure of facts during interview introduction has a positive effect on cooperation: Refusal Rate Interview Length Disclosed 34% Length Not Disclosed 52% Client Identified 29% Client Not Identified 54% Subject Matter Disclosed 43% Subject Not Disclosed 61% However, providing reassurance in the interview introduction of whether the survey is confidential or a sales pitch did not appear to improve cooperation: Refusal Rate Not a Sales Attempt 51% No Mention of Sales 43% Responses Confidential 48% Confidentiality Not Mentioned 46% SOURCE: Pam Humbaugh, Opinion—The News Magazine of CMOR, Vol. 1, No. 1, Winter 1998. 241 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-3 Ethics in Surveys Millions of Americans find in the welter of junk mail they receive items labeled “survey,” usually in oversized envelopes, sent by political or other advocacy groups. They usually include a brief questionnaire, perhaps half a dozen questions worded to encourage “yes” answers if the group is for something or “no” answers if it is against. Most consumers can detect the manipulative nature of these surveys and do not respond. Consumer nonresponse represents a threat to legitimate marketing research. Though many marketing groups have spoken out against the unethical behavior of the causes and candidates, public relations (PR) is most effective in stopping the distribution of advocacy surveys. After authorizing a sound PR budget, mass media should be used to send the message about how surveys are fooling the public by misrepresenting responses and asking for contributions under false pretenses. Clients, the users of survey research information, should be made aware that discouraging the phonysurvey practice is crucial to them. These “surveys” are likely to undermine the reliability of the marketing research data they depend on by further discouraging consumer response. Their support will be useful for the campaign against advocacy surveys. SOURCE: Thomas T. Semon, “Advocacy Surveys Threaten Marketing Research,” Marketing News, April 24, 1995, p. 9. sample; (4) the credibility of the sponsoring organization; (5) the level of induced motivation; and (6) increased unethical use of marketing research to sell products. (See Marketing Research in Action 10-3 for an example.) A poorly planned mail survey on a low-interest topic may achieve only a 10 to 15 percent response rate. Under the right circumstances, 90 percent response rates are also possible. Average response to question Coping with Nonresponse to Self-administered Surveys. Nonresponse is a problem, because those who respond are likely to differ substantially from those who do not respond. The best way to protect against this bias is to improve the response rate. The most consistently effective methods for achieving high response rates involve some combination of monetary incentives and follow-ups or reminders.18 The inclusion of a dollar bill in the mailing, which is the usual reward, has been found to improve response rates by increments of 18 to 27 percent when compared to returns when no incentive is used. Comparable improvements have been obtained from the single or multiple follow-up letter. Although each follow-up brings additional responses, the optimum number seems to be two. It is a moot point whether it is worthwhile to include another questionnaire in the follow-up letter. Other techniques for improving response rates, such as having a persuasive cover letter, appear to have a lesser but still worthwhile effect. Surprisingly, there is no clear evidence that personalization of the cover letter or email, promises of anonymity, color, and methods of reproduction make much difference. Another approach to the nonresponse problem is to determine the extent and direction of bias by studying the differences between those who respond and those who do not. This sometimes can be done by taking a subsample of the nonrespondents and using a variety of methods to get a high response rate from this group. Of course, when the questionnaire is anonymous or time is short, this cannot be done. In this situation it may be possible to compare the results of the survey with “known” values for the population, using such variables as age and income. Alternatively, one can use extrapolation methods, which assume that those 242 Wave 2 Last respondent Wave 1 First wave Second Nonrespondents wave Cumulative response rate Project response of average nonresponder 100% COLLECTING DATA who respond less readily are more like nonrespondents.19 “Less readily” can be defined as either being slower than average in answering a simple mailing, or responding to the extra prodding of a follow-up mailing. With data from two waves of mailings, a trend can be established in the pattern of answers; nonrespondents can be assumed to be like either the last respondent to the second wave or like a projected respondent at the midpoint of the nonresponse group. This is represented graphically in the response rate chart. Panels. A panel is a representative national sample of people who have agreed to participate in a limited number of surveys each year. Some panels mail surveys to participants, others have web-based portals that participants use to answer survey questions. A number of these panels are operated by firms such as Market Facts, Home Testing Institute, and National Family Opinion, Inc. The latter firm, for example, offers a number of panels that contain 130,000 people. The major advantage is the high response rate, which averages 75 to 85 percent. A typical mail panel is the Conference Board Survey of Consumer Confidence. Each quarter, a large sample, drawn from the National Family Opinion Panel, is sent a questionnaire in the card format shown in Figure 10-1. This card is sent with cards from as many as 10 other studies, which spreads the costs of the survey across a number of companies. Since the questions and the sampling procedures are the same every quarter, the Conference Board has a standard measuring stick for tracking fluctuations in consumer attitudes and buying intentions. Panels are recruited to match the general population with respect to geographic location, city size, age of homemaker, family income, and so on. Hence, it is possible to draw special samples of particular occupation groups (such as lawyers), age categories (such as teenagers), and geographic areas. Large samples can be obtained quickly in test-market areas, for example. Inevitably, those Answer This Side First Answer Other Side First 1. How would you rate the present general business conditions in your area? 䊐 GOOD 䊐 NORMAL 䊐 BAD a. SIX MONTHS from now do you think they will be: 䊐 BETTER? 䊐 SAME? 䊐 WORSE? 6. Please check which, if any, of the items you plan to buy in the next SIX MONTHS, and which brand you are most likely to choose: BRAND PREFERENCE Refrigerator ....................01䊐 ________________________ Washing Machine ..........02䊐 ________________________ Black/White TV ..............03䊐 ________________________ Color TV ........................04䊐 ________________________ Vacuum Cleaner ..............05䊐 ________________________ Range ............................06䊐 ________________________ Clothes Dryer ..................07䊐 ________________________ Air Conditioner ..............08䊐 ________________________ Dishwasher......................09䊐 ________________________ Microwave Oven ............10䊐 ________________________ Sewing Machine..............11䊐 ________________________ Carpet (over 4⬘ ⫻ 6⬘) ....12䊐 ________________________ NONE OF THESE 䊐 2. What would you say about available jobs in your area right now? 䊐 PLENTY 䊐 NOT SO MANY 䊐 HARD TO GET a. SIX MONTHS from now do you think there will be: 䊐 MORE? 䊐 SAME? 䊐 FEWER? 3. How would you guess your total family income to be SIX MONTHS from now? 䊐 HIGHER 䊐 SAME 䊐 LOWER 4. Does anyone in your household plan to buy a house in the next SIX MONTHS? 䊐 YES 䊐 NO 䊐 MAYBE a. If YES: 䊐 NEW? 䊐 LIVED IN? 䊐 DON’T KNOW? 5. Does anyone in your household plan to buy a car in the next SIX MONTHS? 䊐 YES 䊐 NO 䊐 MAYBE a. If YES: 䊐 NEW? 䊐 USED? 䊐 DON’T KNOW? MAKE? _______________________________ 䊐 DON’T KNOW? CONTINUE S 7. Do you plan to take a vacation away from home between NOW and the next SIX MONTHS? 䊐 YES 䊐 NO 䊐 UNDECIDED a. Where will you spend most of your time while on vacation? 䊐 HOME䊐 OTHER 䊐 FOREIGN STATE STATE(S) COUNTRY b. How will you mainly travel? AIRPLANE CAR TRAIN BOAT BUS ¬¬ 䊐 䊐 䊐 䊐 䊐 T FIGURE 10-1 Conference Board mail panel survey of consumer confidence. 243 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS people who agree to serve on such panels will be different from the rest of the population—perhaps because they are more interested in such research, have more time available, and so forth. Little is known about the impact of such differences on questionnaire responses. Web Surveys20 Web-based marketing research studies fundamentally and permanently are changing the role marketing research will play in future businesses. Web-based surveys have many advantages over traditional methods: they can be of high quality, fast, and inexpensive. There are no interviewers involved, thereby eliminating interviewer error and bias. Webbased surveys give researchers much more control over data quality. Logic checks can be built into the survey so that contradictory or nonsensical answers are not allowed, eliminating the need for data cleaning and editing. With a Web-based survey, the questionnaire is posted on a secure website where clients can instantaneously view results as soon as any respondent has completed the interview. Web-based marketing can also reduce data collection costs to zero; this could be done by posting invitation banners on company websites that receive high traffic from target customers. These website visitors would click on the banner and immediately be sent to a secure website to conduct a brief interview. Afterward, respondents are automatically returned to their point of departure. On the other hand, the validity of online surveys depends on the sample selection, survey design, response tendencies, and technology challenges. In e-research, the choice of sampling units is in the form of e-mail addresses, electronic subscription groups, and heavily visited websites. Unfortunately, people change their e-mail addresses very often, thus creating problems in obtaining well-defined samples. Another problem is the poor translation of well-designed surveys into electronic versions. This results in lower response rates for the surveys, which in turn lower their statistical value and validity. Therefore, Web-based surveys need continuous monitoring to determine their direction, appropriate use, and long-term effectiveness. Research is being transformed by the online medium; however, and increasing numbers of people are opting for fast and efficient Web-based surveys.21 Web-based marketing research will greatly increase the amount of customer feedback on which managers base critical business decisions. Combinations of Survey Methods Since each of the basic methods of data collection has different strengths and weaknesses, it is sometimes desirable to combine them and retain the best features of each while minimizing the limitations. Some of the feasible combinations (or sequences) are illustrated below: 1. Telephone ——————› appointment Personal interview ———–——› 2. Telephone ——————› request Mail survey ———–—————› for permission to mail a questionnaire Telephone pre-interview (as part of a panel study or verification) Telephone follow-up Self-administered ————–––—› questionnaire delivered by “interviewer” Fax survey –——————–——› telephone (optional) 3. Personal ———————› interview 4. Mail survey –—————› 5. Telephone or —————› personal 244 6. Telephone request –—–—› for permission to fax questionnaire Leave behind a self-administered questionnaire to be mailed later Telephone follow-up (optional) To be either picked up or mailed in Follow-up COLLECTING DATA With the exception of the reinterview panel design of sequence 3, each of the above combinations has proven very effective in increasing the response rate. Indeed, sequence 1 is virtually mandatory for personal interviews with executives, as we noted in the previous chapter. The virtues of the other sequences are not quite so obvious. Marketing Research in Action 10-4 describes a study that included a combination of survey methods, namely a mail survey with a telephone follow-up. The telephone prenotification approach is essentially a phone call to ask permission to mail or fax a questionnaire. The key is the telephone presentation, which must not only gain agreement to participate but also make sure the prospective respondent is serious about cooperating. In one study in which 300 households were phoned, 264 households (88 percent) agreed to the mailing and 180 (60 percent) returned usable questionnaires.22 If the return rate is not acceptable, a follow-up phone call can be made. The lockbox approach is designed to circumvent the screens that receptionists and secretaries set around busy executives. The mail is used to deliver a small locked metal box containing a questionnaire and other interviewing materials such as flashcards, exhibits, and pictures. A covering letter, attached to the box, explains the purpose of the survey and tells the prospective respondent that an interviewer will conduct a telephone interview in a few days. The letter also tells the respondent that the box is a gift but that the combination to the lock will not be provided until the time of the interview. Ostensibly, this is so the respondent will not be biased by seeing the interview materials in advance. However, it is clear that the value of the gift depends on participation in the survey. Also, the locked box stimulates respondent curiosity. As a result, the originator of this technique has been able to obtain response rates of 50 to 70 percent, even with notoriously difficult respondents such as attorneys in private practice, who sell time for a living and are loath to participate in “free interviews.”23 The drop-off approach is an illustration of sequence 5, which is particularly well suited to studies within compact geographic areas. For public transit studies, the questionnaire can be hand delivered to sampling points, such as every 25th house within areas that have access to a transit line. It also can be used for subjects living in designated political precincts or within a given radius of a specific retail outlet or other service. The major advantages are that: (1) only lightly trained interviewers are required to gain the cooperation of the respondents, deliver the questionnaires, and arrange a return visit; (2) response rates are high, generally between 70 and 80 percent, in part because of the initial commitment to cooperate, coupled with the realization that the person who dropped the survey will be returning to pick up the completed questionnaire; (3) several questionnaires can be left in each household, if all adults are part of the sample; (4) lengthy questionnaires can be used without affecting the response rate; and (5) it is a very cost-effective method.24 MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-4 Use of Mail Survey with Telephone Follow-up A study was conducted to determine the effect on response rates when mail and telephone survey methods were used. The survey also included a prepaid $2.00 cash incentive. The survey drew samples from Medicaid enrollees, who were stratified by race and ethnicity. The sampling was performed in two stages. While the first stage consisted of a simple random sample (SRS) of Medicaid enrollees, the second stage consisted of randomly drawn samples from American Indian, African-American, Latino, Hmong, and Somali enrollees. A total of 8,412 enrollees were assigned randomly to receive a mail survey with no incentive or a $2.00 bill. The response rate within the SRS following the mailing portion of the survey was found to be 54 percent in the incentive group and 45 percent in the nonincentive group. After telephone follow-ups, the incentive SRS response rate increased to 69 percent, and the nonincentive response rate increased to 64 percent. It was seen that the inclusion of the $2.00 incentive had similar effects on response rates. SOURCE: Timothy Beebe, Michael Davern, Donna McAlpine, Kathleen Call, and Todd Rockwood. “Increasing Response Rates in a Survey of Medicaid Enrollees: The Effect of a Prepaid Monetary Incentive and Mixed Modes (Mail and Telephone),” Medical Care, 43(4); April 2005, pp. 411–414. 245 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS Table 10-3 presents a comprehensive set of advantages and disadvantages of the various methods discussed above. Prepaid phone cards are now being pitched as a way to get consumers to participate in surveys for marketing research. MHA Communications of Illinois has designed a system for gathering consumer information through an interactive voice response (IVR) system linked to a phone card. Certain consumers are given prepaid phone cards worth about 10 minutes by a client company. Once they call the 800 number, the callers are offered additional free phone time in exchange for answering a few survey questions. One advantage of IVR phone card research is flexibility and convenience for its customers; they can call whenever they like. IVR is also flexible enough to allow companies to alter survey questions and substitute new ones. But for consistency, only data from the new questions should be measured, and data from ineffective questions dropped.25 Trends in Survey Research Surveys will continue to dominate as a method of data collection for marketing research, at least for the next few decades. Rapid advancement in technology, however, is changing the very nature of data collection and survey methods. Computers and interactive technology are revolutionizing the way surveys are conducted. This section will look into some survey methods that have become popular in the last few years, and also the future of survey research. Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). Computers are being used increasingly to control the administration and sequence of questions asked by an interviewer seated at a terminal. This use of computers provides researchers with a way to prevent many interviewer errors, such as choosing the wrong respondent in a household, failing to ask a question that should be asked, or asking a series of questions that is not appropriate for a particular respondent. If the respondent selection procedure or the skip patterns in a questionnaire are complicated, these interviewer errors are more likely to happen. When control of the question sequence is turned over to the computer, the interviewer theoretically is free to concentrate fully on reading the questions, recording the answers, and establishing rapport with the respondent. There are some limitations to computer-controlled telephone interviewing. It is generally more expensive to use the computer than to administer the traditional paper-and-pencil questionnaire. For that reason, use of a computer-controlled system is recommended when a large number of surveys must be done or when the questionnaire will be used many times in a tracking study. A second limitation relates to the problems involved in using a mechanical system and to human error in its programming and operation. A program must be written and carefully debugged for each questionnaire. The computer system must be able to handle the demands of a large number of interviewers. At the worst, several days of interviewing may pass before someone notices that a mistake has been made and the questionnaire program is incorrectly skipping over a crucial series of questions. Valuable interviewing time and money may be lost if the computer system becomes overloaded and “crashes.” At its best, computer-controlled telephone interviewing can produce faster, more complete, data to the researcher. Computer Interactive Interviewing. In computer interactive interviewing the respondent interacts directly with the computer. The respondent is asked to sit before the computer and to answer the questions as they appear on the screen. This type of interview is being widely used in malls. Customers are intercepted and qualified in the mall and then brought to a test facility in the mall. They are seated at a computer terminal, given some instruction on what to do, 246 COLLECTING DATA TABLE 10-3 Advantages and Disadvantages of Survey Methods Type of Survey Method Personal interviewing Advantages ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Telephone interviewing ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Selfadministration (mail, email, fax, drop-off, etc.) ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Disadvantages There are sample designs that can be implemented best by personal interview (for example, area probability samples). Personal interview procedures are probably the most effective way of enlisting cooperation. Advantages of interview questions—probing for adequate answers, accurately following complex instructions or sequences—are realized. Multimethod data collection, including observation, visual cues, and self-administered sections, are feasible. Rapport and confidence building are possible (including any written reassurances that may be needed for reporting very sensitive material). Probably longer interviews can be done in person. ■ Lower costs than personal interviews. Random-digit-dialing (RDD) sampling of general population. Better access to certain populations, especially as compared to personal interviews. Shorter data collection periods. The advantages of interviewer administration (in contrast to mail surveys). Interviewer staffing and management easier than personal interviews—smaller staff needed, not necessary to be near sample, supervision and quality control potentially better. Likely better response rate from a list sample than from mail. ■ Ease of presenting questions requiring visual aids (in contrast to telephone interviews). Asking questions with long or complex response categories is facilitated. Asking batteries of similar questions is possible. The respondent does not have to share answers with an interviewer. Relatively low cost. Can be accomplished with minimal staff and facilities. Provides access to widely dispersed samples and samples that for other reasons are difficult to reach by telephone or in person. Respondents have time to give thoughtful answers, look up records, or consult with others. ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ It is likely to be more costly than alternatives. A trained staff of interviewers that is geographically near the sample is needed. The total data collection period is likely to be longer than for most procedures. Some samples (those in high-rise buildings or high-crime areas, elites, employees, students) may be more accessible by some other mode. Sampling limitations, especially as a result of omitting those without telephone. Nonresponse associated with RDD sampling is higher than with interviews. Questionnaire or measurement constraints, including limits on response alternatives, use of visual aids, and interviewer observations. Possibly less appropriate for personal or sensitive questions if no prior contact. Especially careful questionnaire design is needed. Open questions usually are not useful. Good reading and writing skills are needed by respondents. The interviewer is not present to exercise quality control with respect to answering all questions, meeting questions objectives, or the quality of answers provided. Ineffective as a way of enlisting cooperation (depending on group to be studied). Various disadvantages of not having interviewer involved in data collection. Need for good mailing addresses for sample. 247 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-5 Hershey Research Sees Net Gain Integrating old and new research without losing any is important to any company that puts work into gathering the information. While moving toward ’Net research, firms are not going to throw away 10 years of testing and start over from scratch. In 1999 and 2000, Hershey Food Corp. moved its all-important newproduct testing online, along with all of its historical testing data, in one king-sized commitment to ’Net research. The move cut the time spent on the new product development process by two-thirds, a key strategic advantage in mature markets, and simultaneously ensured that a wealth of institutional knowledge remained on hand even as the company’s roster of research professionals changed over the years. While the company’s mail testing results might not come back for six weeks, online results can be garnered in two. Although Hershey took a giant step into online research, the company took small steps at first to ensure that the transfer would go smoothly. The first task was validation testing. With more than half of the U.S. population becoming more representative of the national population every day, Hershey had to make sure that the results would be the same regardless of the method its researchers used. The correlation between the two sets of tests was about 0.9 on a scale of 1. With the online collection of data, Hershey has an easily accessible and searchable database. With this new system there are fewer man-hours spent collecting the information, less human error, and greater cost-effectiveness than with the old system. What Hershey has is a special application for companies that wish to preserve their vast investment in past off-line research. SOURCE: “Hershey Research Sees Net Gain,” Marketing News, November 25, 2002, p. 17. and the administrator enters the sequence to start the interview. The interview then proceeds in the same manner as the CATI described before, the only difference being that the information is input directly into the computer by the respondent. Computer interactive interviewing has resulted in better responses from respondents and, in some instances, 30 to 40 percent cost savings.26 Marketing Research in Action 10-5 gives an example of how and why Hershey converted its survey process to a computer interactive one—but without losing old research information. Thus Hershey succeeded in preserving its vast investment in past off-line research while reaping the advantages of online methods. Recent Developments in Software and Hardware.27 Many recent developments in both hardware and software have helped researchers to use computers more effectively. A few of them are discussed here: ■ GRiDPAD is a pen computer that has an 8-in.-by-10-in. screen with a wand attached. Respondents use the wand to touch answer categories that appear on the screen (no more keyboards, no more mice). Advanced Data Research (ADR) produces software that can be used with GRiDPAD. Auto manufacturers were among the first to take advantage of the new system. ■ FormPro enables the researcher to create a custom-made, scannable questionnaire using standard paint and drawing tools. The finished questionnaire is then printed by a laser printer using special scanning paper. ■ ScanPro reads forms from FormPro as well as those not made with FormPro. ScanPro, together with an optical mark reader, enables the researcher to scan a questionnaire and produce a standard ASCII file for later use with statistical software packages, spreadsheets, databases, and so on. ■ ScanPhone is a high-tech telephone that enables consumers to scan and transmit bar codes. This may offer new opportunities to researchers, because in the future even questionnaires may be scanned. 248 Internet-Based Surveys. Although Web-based surveys have become quite popular and can be advantageous, many problems remain, including choosing the right ’Net service provider and ’Net software from a variety of choices available in the market. There is also the problem of the selection bias, which occurs when the sample universe is comprised of individuals with the technical skills COLLECTING DATA to use the ’Net and the income to own a PC. This is not a random cross-section of the general population. Another problem is attracting potential respondents to participate in the survey. Some issues should be noted when conducting Internet-based surveys: 1. Check responses carefully. See if they are logically correct and acceptable; respondents may provide false data. 2. Limit the number of characters allowed in the fill-ins. 3. Watch out for LANs. LAN servers may collect responses from several stations and send them to Internet servers in bursts. When these considerations have been taken care of, Internet-based surveys prove to be very efficient and practical, and most important, they provide fast results.28 Marketing Research in Action 10-6 gives an example of wireless marketing surveys conducted through cell phones using Internet technology, which succeed in overcoming many limitations of traditional survey modes. Figure 10-2 and Table 10-4 illustrate previously described data collection methods with new computerized methods. Choice of Survey Methods for HMO Study The HMO study described in earlier chapters successfully used a modification of the drop-off method. The changes were made so that advantage could be taken of the availability of a complete address list of all faculty, staff, and married students. This population was scattered over an area with a 20-mile radius, so it was not practical for the survey assistant to make unannounced personal visits. The specific procedure was as follows: MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-6 Cell Phones—Revolutionizing Mode of Marketing Research Study of consumer behaviors in their natural environment is the key to better consumer research. Though very expensive, new research technologies and methods, such as the ethnographic method, enable researchers to study consumers’ natural behavior, thus providing new insights to researchers. Wireless marketing surveys address the expense issue while broadening and deepening the entire study of consumer behavior. Wireless marketing surveys are a data collection technique that uses standard wireless phones (cell phones) to conduct marketing surveys either in text-based, voice-based, or a multimodal format. The technical aspects of implementing these kind of surveys are delegated to specialized companies, while the researchers focus on interaction with the respondents in real time. The ability to deliver instant responses anywhere, anytime, and anyplace makes this technique unique. At the same time, wireless surveys reflect consumer behavior better than other methods because they record consumers’ experiences and feelings at the moment of purchase or consumption. This feature helps researchers overcome the weakness of retrospective methods, which rely on the respondents’ biased and distorted memories. In addition, it not only helps respondents answer such questions as “Why did I buy this product?” or “How do I feel about it?” (affective heuristic factors) but also accurately measures customer satisfaction, interpersonal influences, and advertising effectiveness. This technique also helps researchers keep track of individual respondents (longitudinal behavior) and study location-sensitive topics in depth. From the consumers’ point of view, wireless surveys are nonintrusive because they—to fill out the survey. All it takes is an Internetenabled cell phone, application service provider, and text-based short questions. Wireless surveys will definitely open big doors in marketing research. Of course, the success of this mode will depend on the cost of completed surveys versus the response rate. SOURCE: “Calling Customers—Wireless Technology Ideal to Study Behavior,” Marketing News, January 20, 2003, p. 19. 249 Computer-Assisted Data Collection Methods Personal Fully Automated SelfInterviewing ✓ Allows respondents to choose own schedule for completing survey ✓ ✓ Web-Based ComputerAssisted Telephone Interviewing Fully Automated Telephone Interviewing ✓ ✓ Fully Interactive ✓ Can easily incorporate complex branching questions into survey ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Can easily use respondent-generated words in questions throughout the survey ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Can accurately measure response times of respondents to key questions ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Can easily display a variety of graphics and directly relate them to questions ✓ ✓ ✓ Eliminates need to encode data from paper surveys ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Errors in data less likely, compared to equivalent manual method ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Speedier data collection and encoding, compared to equivalent manual method ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ FIGURE 10-2 Computer-assisted data collection methods. SOURCE: Scott G. Dacko, “Data Should Not Be Manual Labor,” Marketing News, August 28, 1995, p. 31. ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✗ RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS Respondents need not have any computer-related skills ComputerAssisted SelfInterviewing Telephone FROM BENEFITS ComputerAssisted Personal Interviewing On-Site CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION 250 SURVEYS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT TABLE 10-4 Eight Methods of Computerized Data Collection Available to Marketing Researchers Survey Methods Characteristics Computer-assisted personal interviewing A method in which the researcher conducts in-person interviews, reads questions to the respondent off a computer screen, and keys the respondent’s answers directly into the computer. Computer-assisted self-interviewing An on-site member of the research team intercepts and directs willing respondents to nearby computers. Each respondent reads questions off a computer screen and keys his or her answers directly into a computer. Fully automated self-interviewing Respondents independently approach a centrally located computer station or kiosk, read questions off a screen, and key their answers directly into the station’s computer. Computer-assisted telephone interviewing Members of the research team telephone potential respondents, ask questions of respondents from a computer screen, and key the answers directly into a computer. Fully automated telephone interviewing An automated voice asks questions over the telephone, and respondents use keys on their touch-tone telephones to enter their replies. Web-based survey Using batch type electronic mail, researchers send emails to potential respondents with weblink. Potential respondents go to the link that contains an interactive survey. Respondents access the survey and enter their answers. 1. A telephone contact was made with each household named in the sample, to determine the head of the household and obtain that person’s agreement to participate. To minimize nonresponse bias, at least five telephone callbacks were made. 2. During the telephone call, arrangements were made to deliver the questionnaire, and a pickup time was set. 3. Before the pick-up, a reminder phone call was made to see if the questionnaire had been completed. 4. If the questionnaire was not ready at the promised time, arrangements were made for a second pick-up time. Only 3 percent of the sample of 1,500 persons refused to participate on the first contact. Fourteen percent were ineligible, not at home after calls, or had disconnected phones. Another 9 percent refused to complete the questionnaire they had received, usually citing lack of time (this is not surprising, as the questionnaire had 14 pages and more than 200 variables). The overall response rate of 74 percent reflected the interest of most respondents in the subject and the subtle pressure to respond from the knowledge that someone was calling to pick up the questionnaire. SURVEYS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT While conducting surveys for international research, a number of differences between the domestic and the international environment have to be taken into account. In this section the differences between domestic and international research and the problems faced by the researcher in 251 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS conducting international research are discussed briefly for the three major survey methods. Often, surveys in the international context involve the use of translators and interpreters. Correct use of the local language in a research instrument is critical to successful research design. Owing to cross-national variances, the meaning of survey responses may get lost during translation and interpretation into other languages. Marketing Research in Action 10-7 provides a few tips for effective interpretations in international surveys. Personal Interviews Personal interviewing tends to be the dominant mode of data collection outside the United States.29 Lower wage costs imply that personal procedures are cheaper than in the United States. On the other hand, use of personal interviewing requires the availability of field staff fluent in the relevant language. Often, however, given the lack of a pool of trained interviewers in other countries, companies with local research units or international research organizations may train and develop their own field staffs. This provides greater control over the quality of the interviewing conducted in different countries. This is in marked contrast to the practice of “buying field and tab services” from an outside organization that is common in the United States. These interviewers are not necessarily required to work exclusively for a given research supplier, though often they may do so of their own choice. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 10-7 Tips for Effective Interpretations Language is perhaps the most important barrier when researching international markets. Therefore, irrespective of the research instrument being used, ensuring exact interpretations is vital in deriving insightful results. The following tips would be of help to researchers using interpreters. 1. An interpreter is different from a translator! While it may seem obvious, people generally use one for the other. Therefore, it is critical to understand their terminologies. A translator is someone who works with the written word and translates a written text in one language into a written text in another language. In contrast, an interpreter works with the spoken word or oral communication, and is used for real-time communication in a foreign country. 2. It’s all about the meaning Interpreters do not translate. Rather, they communicate what researchers mean in the listener’s language. There are plenty of examples of marketing gaffes that have relied heavily on literal translations and have produced erroneous and often embarrassing results. Therefore, it is not about the literal translation—it’s the appropriate rendering of your meaning in the other language. 3. A pause goes a long way If you speak for too long without a pause, the interpreter will find it more difficult to render your meaning and your listeners will get bored or lose focus. Therefore, a pause helps the interpreter to collect, assimilate and effectively interpret the message into the foreign language. 4. Go easy on the slangs The focus should be on the message that has to be communicated. This calls for easy and straight talk that does not involve slangs, humor, pun, or play with words. This helps the interpreter to concentrate on interpreting the message correctly. 5. Look at your counterpart, not the interpreter! In the most ideal setting, the interpreter should be invisible, with only the interpreted messages going back and forth. This is possible only if the researcher focuses his attention on the counterpart, and using the ears only with the interpreter. Such an approach also helps the researcher to pick up the nonverbal cues from the counterpart. SOURCE: Anne Orban, “Qualitatively Speaking: Ten tips for using interpreters in international research,” Quirk’s Marketing Research Review, November 2005, p. 20. http://www.quirks.com/articles/a2005/20051112.aspx?searchID-249352105. 252 SURVEYS IN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT The ease with which the cooperation of respondents can be obtained may vary, however, from one country or culture to another. In Latin countries, and particularly in the Middle East, interviewers are regarded with considerable suspicion. In Latin countries, where tax evasion is more prevalent, interviewers are often suspected of being tax inspectors. In the Middle East, where interviewers are invariably male, interviews with housewives often have to be conducted in the evenings when husbands are at home. Telephone Interviews In international marketing research, the advantages of these telephone interviews are not always as evident. Low levels of telephone ownership and poor communications in many countries limit the coverage provided by telephone surveys. In addition, telephone costs are often high, and volume rates may not be available. Again, this depends on the specific country and the target population. Consequently, the desirability of conducting a telephone survey will depend to a large extent on the nature and purpose of the survey. In industrial international marketing research, the use of telephone surveys may be quite effective. Most businesses, other than some small or itinerant retailers or craftspersons, are likely to have telephones. With the decline of international telephone costs, multicountry studies can also be conducted from a single location. This significantly reduces the time and costs associated with negotiating and organizing a research project in each country, establishing quality controls, and so on. Although the additional costs of making international telephone calls are incurred, these may not be highly significant when a centralized location is used.30 International calls also obtain a higher response rate. Results obtained using this technique have been found to be highly stable. Interviewer and client control is considerably greater. The questionnaire can be changed and modified in the course of the survey, and interviewing can be extended or stopped to meet the client’s requirements. It is necessary to find interviewers fluent in the relevant languages, but in most European countries this is rarely a problem. In consumer research, the feasibility of using telephone surveys depends on the level of private telephone ownership in a country, and the specific target population. In countries such as India, telephone penetration is very low. According to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology in 2004, India’s rural telephone penetration was 4.3 main lines per 100 populations and urban telephone density was 15.2 per 100 populations.31 Even in relatively affluent societies such as Great Britain, telephone penetration is only 80 percent, and telephone interviewing is not widely used because many practitioners are still skeptical about it. In Britain and France, there are substantial declines in telephone response rates in large cities. However, these declines are not observed in Germany and Switzerland. In some of the Eastern European countries and some members of the Eastern European Commonwealth of Independent States which have poor telecommunication systems, conducting telephone surveys may not be a good idea. Self-Administered Surveys As in the case of telephone interviews, the advantages and limitations of self-administered surveys in international marketing research are not always clear, because of the absence of mailing lists, poor mail services, limited email use, limited web access, and high levels of illiteracy. In many markets the efficacy of self-administered surveys depends on the specific product market being investigated (that is, industrial versus consumer), and also the nature of the survey. For example, response rates are a problem in international mail surveys. When international mail surveys are conducted, the response rates vary depending on the country to which the questionnaires are mailed. The response rate for a mail survey conducted by ESOMAR in 1992 is given in Table 10-5, but these rates should not be viewed as representative of the country’s response rates. 253 CHAPTER 10 INFORMATION FROM RESPONDENTS: SURVEY METHODS TABLE 10-5 Response Rates in the ESOMAR 1992 Price Study Sample Selected Effective Returns Percent of Response North America 22 11 50.00 Latin America 17 16 94.12 Eastern Europe 17 10 58.82 Turkey 11 10 90.91 North Africa 6 4 66.67 Middle East 9 6 66.67 Australasia 9 6 66.67 India 5 4 80.00 Pacific Rim 12 11 91.67 Japan 12 5 41.67 South Africa Total 3 3 100.00 123 86 Overall ⫽ 69.92 SOURCE: European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research Prices Study, 1992. Self-administered surveys typically can be used effectively in industrial international marketing research. Mail and email lists such as those from Bottin International, or directories for specific industries, are generally available. In consumer research, and particularly in developing countries, the use of self-administered surveys may give rise to some problems. Mailing addresses and email lists comparable to those in the domestic market may not be available, or not sold, and public sources such as telephone directories may not provide adequate coverage. Lists that are available, that is, magazine subscription lists or membership association lists, may be skewed to better-educated segments of the population. In addition, in some countries, the effectiveness of self-administered surveys is limited not only by low literacy levels but also by the reluctance of respondents to respond to them. As noted previously, levels of literacy are often less than 40 or 50 percent in some Asian and African markets, thus limiting the population that can be reached by mail or email. Even in countries where literacy levels and mail services make the use of mail surveys feasible, a tendency to regard surveys as an invasion of privacy may limit their effectiveness. Thus, while mail surveys may be used effectively in industrial marketing research, in consumer research they may be appropriate only in industrialized countries where levels of literacy are high and mailing lists are generally available. Summary The choice of a data collection method involves a series of compromises in matching the often conflicting requirements of the situation with the strengths and limitations of the available methods. While each situation is unique to some degree, the following represent the major constraints to be satisfied: Available budget Nature of the problem Need for accuracy The complexity of the required information How quickly the results are needed 254 QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS Part of the skill of research design is adapting a basic data collection method, whether personal or telephone interview or self-administered survey, to those constraints. This process of adaptation means exploiting the advantages as well as blunting the limitations, which to some extent makes generalizations suspect. Nonetheless, it is useful to summarize the relative merits of the basic survey methods, as in Table 10-3, to put the methods into perspective. Of course, these summary judgments do not reflect the myriad special factors that may be influential in specific cases, such as the availability of a sampling frame, the need to ask sensitive questions, and the rarity of the population to be sampled. The greatest potential for effective adaptation of method to situation lies with combinations of methods, or specialized variants of basic methods. The latter include omnibus surveys and mail panels, which are particularly good for tracking studies, or where limited responses from specific populations are required and budget constraints are severe. Some combinations of methods, such as the drop-off method, similarly confer impressive advantages by combining some of the advantages of personal interviews and mail surveys. As with specialized variants, however, their usefulness often is restricted to certain settings. Survey research is bound to be the most dominant data collection method in the future. The future of survey research is exciting. With technology growing at such a tremendous pace, newer and better methods to conduct surveys, such as web-based surveying and email surveys, are becoming more common. Another trend in the survey research area is internationalization. This introduces a number of new challenges to the marketing researcher, who has to contend with language, cultural, and a host of other problems. Questions and Problems 1. What kind of data collection procedure would you recommend to research the question of why female shoppers choose a particular retail store at which to buy clothing? 2. Even with the use of expensive gifts and callbacks, all three interview methods produce low response rates, usually under 30 percent. What are some ways to increase these response rates? 3. What biases, if any, might be introduced by offering to give respondents $5.00 when they return a mail questionnaire? Would these biases be different if a gift with a retail value of $5.00 were included with the questionnaire? 4. What can an interviewer do during the first 30 seconds of an interview to maximize the cooperation rate of (a) a personal interview and (b) a telephone interview? Assume the appropriate respondent is the head of the household. 5. What are the advantages of the telephone prenotification approach over a conventional mail survey? 6. Write a cover letter for a mail survey of householders that contains a number of questions regarding the utilization of various kinds of burglaryprotection devices. 7. You are a senior analyst in the marketing research department of a major chemical company. Your company has accidentally stumbled upon a chemical that, when combined with plastic, gives it near metallic properties. You have been asked to find 8. 9. 10. 11. out various uses for this chemical and also forecast its total market potential. a. What information if any, that could be obtained from respondents would be useful for this research? b. What techniques are applicable for obtaining each item of information? c. Design a survey to obtain the information desired. Prepare all instructions, collection forms, and other materials required to obtain such information. d. Estimate the cost of conducting the survey you have designed. You are a publisher of national repute and you would like to find the potential for an academic book. You have decided to conduct a survey among college professors for this purpose. What form of survey method would you use? What trend do you see in the future for this survey method? What are the advantages and disadvantages of computer interactive interviewing compared to the traditional methods of surveying? What are the problems faced by researchers when they are conducting research in developing countries? You are the manufacturer of a major consumer product in the United States. You plan to enter the following countries with your products within the next two years: Russia, France, South Africa, Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Canada, India, and 255 Germany. Based on the demographic data and the infrastructural data about these countries, determine the best survey method to be adopted in each of these countries. 12. Idaho Ideal Potatoes, Ltd., developed a new guacamole-flavored potato chip and wanted to ascertain the national sales potential for this unique product offering. However, the market researcher found the mail response rate to be extremely low (10 percent) and that many of the returned surveys had been completed incorrectly. a. How might the company have collected the relevant data more effectively? b. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using telephone surveys and focus groups for this kind of study? Due to stringent budget constraints, the marketing research director decided to limit the survey to residents of San Antonio, Texas. c. What possible biases could be reflected in the survey results? d. Idaho Ideal Potatoes, Ltd., has decided to offer their new potato chip simultaneously in foreign markets and wishes to survey potential sales demand for the product in the United Kingdom. How should the choice of survey method be altered to suit the company’s research of foreign markets? 13. Judy Gomez, head of marketing for Wildlife Treasures, Inc., has been informed by the board of directors that they would like a marketing research study conducted to determine the cause of the plateau in sales performance over the past two years. The company is a producer of art and ornaments depicting African wildlife, and currently supplies specialty stores throughout the United States. A considerably restricted budget has been allocated to the project. Ms. Gomez is expected to survey all of these stores in order to determine how sales in the domestic market can be increased. The board of directors has been generous in its time allowance for the study, preferring a thorough marketing research effort to a hasty one. a. Suggest a suitable survey method for the study and justify your answer. Ms. Gomez believes that a possible remedy to the company’s stagnant sales performance may be an entry into foreign markets. Because Wildlife Treasures has received some unsolicited inquiries from European tourists, she feels that a market may exist in Europe for its specialty goods. b. Given the restraints of the study, how can Ms. Gomez conduct a survey to determine potential markets across Europe? c. Ms. Gomez would like to utilize the company’s recently updated computer system for the marketing research study. What features would need to be available in order to use the computer system for this purpose? 14. A museum of arts in a large city wants to conduct a study of museum patrons’ attitudes concerning its collection of exhibits. What survey method would you suggest? Why? End Notes 1. Steve Lewis, “Fear Not, We Come in Peace: You Can Convert Survey-Phobics into Lasting Relationships,” Marketing News, January 4, 1999, Vol. 33, No. 1, p. 18. 2. Seymour Sudman, “Improving the Quality of Shopping Center Sampling,” Journal of Marketing Research, 17, November 1980, pp. 423–431. 3. Frederick Wiseman, Marianne Schafer, and Richard Schafer, “An Experimental Test of the Effects of a Monetary Incentive on Cooperation Rates and Data Collection Costs in Central-Location Interviewing,” Journal of Marketing Research, November 1983, pp. 439–442. 4. S. M. McIntyre and S. D. F. G. Bender, “The Purchase Intercept Technique in Comparison to Telephone and Mail Surveys,” Journal of Retailing, 62, Winter 1986, pp. 364–383. 5. Ellen Gregory, “Cost/Quality Issues Plague Mall Intercepts,” Marketing Research, Summer 1996, pp. 46–47. 256 6. Nanci A. Glassman and Myron Glassman, “Screening Questions: How Screening Questions Can Cause Self-Selection Bias,” Marketing Research, Fall 1998, pp. 26–31. 7. “The Frame,” published by Survey Sampling, Inc., September 1996. 8. Stanley L. Payne, “Data Collection Methods: Telephone Surveys,” in Robert Ferber, ed., Handbook of Marketing Research. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, pp. 2.105–2.123. 9. Payne, Handbook of Marketing Research. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, p. 2.116. 10. J. B. Lansing and J. N. Morgan, Economic Survey Methods, Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan, Institute of Social Research, 1971, pp. 203–243. 11. “So how good is RDD?” Marketing Research, Fall 2007, pg. 5. 12. Quoted from Census Bureau sources by Paul L. Erdos, “Data Collection Methods: Mail Surveys,” in Robert Ferber, ed., Handbook of 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. Marketing Research, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, pp. 2–91. Results from other comparative studies have not been so clear-cut. See, for example, W. Locander, S. Sudman, and N. Bradburn, “An Investigation of Interviewer Method, Threat and Response Distortion,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, June 1976, pp. 262–275. Michael J. Houston and Neil M. Ford, “Broadening the Scope of Methodological Research on Mail Surveys,” Journal of Marketing Research, 13, November 1976, pp. 397–403. Quoted from Census Bureau by Paul L. Erdos, “Data Collection Methods: Mail Surveys,” in Robert Ferber, ed., Handbook of Marketing Research, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1974, pp. 2–91. Council of American Survey Research Organizations, “On the Definition of Response Rates,” Special Report, Port Jefferson, NY: CASRO, 1982. Frederick Wiseman and Maryann Billington, “Comment on a Standard Definition of Response Rates,” Journal of Marketing Research, August 1984, pp. 336–338. Leslie Kanuk and Conrad Berenson, “Mail Surveys and Response Rates: A Literature Review,” Journal of Marketing Research, 12, November 1975, pp. 440–453; Jeanine M. James and Richard Bolstein, “The Effect of Monetary Incentives and Follow-up Mailings on the Response Rate and Response Quality in Mail Surveys,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 54, Fall 1990, pp. 346–361. J. Scott Armstrong and Terry S. Overton, “Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys,” Journal of Marketing Research, 14, August 1977, pp. 396–402. Dick McCullough, “Web-based Market Research Ushers in New Age,” Marketing News, September 14, 1998. CASE 10-1 Roland Development Corp. Roland Development was a leading builder of homes in the western United States. Its emphasis was on condominiums and ownhouses, which were forecast to have an attractive future in these markets. These housing types lent themselves to standardization and costreduction possibilities. Further, rising land costs were causing the share of single-family detached houses to decline significantly. Meanwhile, the share of market for single-family attached houses (houses with common 21. Nina M. Ray and Sharon W. Tabor, “Cyber Surveys,” Marketing Research, Spring 2003, pp. 35–37. 22. Marvin A. Jolson, “How to Double or Triple MailSurvey Response Rates,” Journal of Marketing, 41, October 1977, pp. 78–81. 23. David Schwartz, “Locked Box Contains Survey Methods, Helps End Some Woes of Probing Industrial Field,” Marketing News, January 27, 1978, p. 18. 24. Christopher H. Lovelock, Ronald Stiff, David Cullwick, and Ira M. Kaufman, “An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Drop-off Questionnaire Delivery,” Journal of Marketing Research, 13, November 1976, pp. 358–364. 25. Gail Gaboda, “Phone Cards Help Researchers Reward Respondents,” Marketing News, September 15, 1997, p. 14. 26. For more details on cost savings, refer to John P. Liefeld, “Response Effects in Computer Administered Questioning,” Journal of Marketing Research, 25, November 1988, pp. 405–409. 27. Lewis C. Winters, “Questionnaires in the 1990s: Wands and Scannable Forms Are ‘In’,” Marketing Research, June 1992, p. 46. 28. Robert Hays, “Phone Cards Help Researchers Reward Respondents,” Marketing News, April 13, 1998, p. 13. 29. D. Monk, “Marketing Research in Canada,” European Research, November 1987, p. 274; J. J. Honomichl, “Survey Results Positive,” Advertising Age, November 1984, p. 23. 30. M. De Houd, “International Computerized Telephone Research: Is It Fiction?,” Marketing Research Society Newsletter, January 1982, pp. 14–15. 31. ”Doing ebusiness in India,” The Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economist, http://globaltechforum. eiu.com/index.asp?layout-newdebi&country_id= IN&title=Doing+ebusniess+in+India. walls, floors, or roofs) was expected to double in the next five years. Roland was well positioned to exploit these trends by following a strategy that differed from competition in three areas: ■ Market segmentation. Roland typically segmented the market more finely than other home builders, and then designed homes to meet the specific needs of these groups. ■ Direct selling. Shoppers in some department stores could find full-scale, fully furnished Roland homes on display. 257 ■ Low prices for a complete housing package (including all the furnishings and necessary financing). The company had begun to expand its limited line of condominiums and townhouses to provide design and square-footage combinations that would appeal to higher-income households. The management was especially pleased with the elegance, convenience, and durability of the four new models they were planning to launch. Several problems remained to be solved. The first was the identification of a creative strategy that would position the new models and attract the largest number of purchases. That is, the company wanted to know what main ideas and themes should be used in the advertising of the new models. Another problem was to identify those segments of the market with the highest probability of purchasing the new models. The company asked the YKG Group, a large national research firm, to submit a written proposal for research which would provide Roland’s management with information useful in solving these two problems. Their proposal is summarized below. Research Proposal The recommended research design would use a consumer panel and employ both telephone interviews and mail questionnaires. The research firm felt that the needed information could be obtained only from that very small proportion of the population who might buy such a home. Each of several different market segments would be studied to determine how they positioned the new models in relation to competing homes already on the market. The likelihood of purchasing a Roland model would also be determined during the study for each of the three market segments and also for each of several different advertising themes. This information would help Roland identify the most promising market segments for the new models, as well as the creative advertising strategy that would most appeal to them. The proposed research design consisted of three phases: (1) The members of a large consumer mail panel would be screened to locate qualified prospects for the new models; (2) a relatively small sample of qualified prospects would be interviewed “in depth” to identify possible advertising themes; and (3) a large sample of qualified respondents would be surveyed by mail to test their response to alternative creative strategies. Phase 1. The YKG Group maintained a bank of over 200,000 families who agreed to cooperate in research projects undertaken by the firm. Considerable information existed about each family, including geographic location, occupation and age of male and female heads of family, total family income, presence and age of 258 children, and so on. Roland managers felt that the four new models would most likely appeal to middle- and upper-income families of size two, three, or four, with a house-hold head 30 years of age or over. For this reason, the first phase of the proposed research involved mailing a short questionnaire to all panel members with those characteristics. The questionnaire asked panel members to indicate the likelihood of their purchasing a home in the next two to three years and also to report their attitude toward buying a townhouse or condominium. It was expected that this screening process would locate some 3,000 to 5,000 families who would be prospects to buy the new models over the next few years. To be considered a prospect, a family had to report being likely to purchase a home in the next two to three years, as well as having a favorable attitude toward a condominium or townhouse. Among these prospects, three market segments would be identified. A high-income family would be a “very good” prospect if it was “very likely” to buy a home; a medium-income family would be a “good” prospect if it was “very likely” to buy a new home; and a high-income family would be a “fair” prospect if it was “somewhat” likely to buy a new home. All other responses were considered to indicate nonprospects. Phase 2. In this phase about 200 qualified prospects would be interviewed using a combination of telephone and mail. These families would be mailed pictures, specifications, and line drawings of the company’s new models of condos and townhouses, although they would not be identified by the Roland name. The line drawings would include front and rear views of each unit’s exterior as well as sketches of each room. The specifications would include the number of square feet, wall thickness, heating and cooling equipment capacities, appliance brands and models, slab thickness, type of roof covering, and other features. After reviewing these materials, respondents’ reactions and impressions would be obtained through telephone interviews using open-ended questions. Interviewers would be told that the objective was to obtain qualitative data useful for ascertaining how potential buyers perceived the new models with respect to appearance, comfort, elegance, convenience, durability, ease and economy of maintenance, and other criteria. Interviewers would be instructed to record verbatim responses and were told that it was very important to do so because none of the responses would be tabulated or analyzed statistically. Responses to the open questions would then be studied to identify four or five ideas of themes that might be considered for use as creative strategies in advertising the new models. Phase 3. This phase would be undertaken after four of the best advertising themes had been identified. Some 2,400 families would be selected from the list of prospects obtained from Phase 1—approximately 800 “very good” prospects, 800 “good” prospects, and 800 “fair” prospects. All of the families in each of the three market segments would be sent pictures, line drawings, and specifications (including prices) of the new Roland models as well as those of major competing models, all identified by brand name. Each of these three groups of prospects would then be randomly divided into four subsamples of 200, each of which would receive one, and only one, of the four advertising themes identified for the new models. Thus, the study design would consist of three samples of 800 families each. In turn, each sample would be broken into four subsamples, each of which would receive a different advertising theme. Analysis. The effect of each advertising theme on each prospect segment would be evaluated on three measures: the degree to which it (1) resulted in the new line being rated as “most appealing,” (2) led respondents to request further information about the company’s products, and (3) led respondents to indicate that they would be most likely to select one of the company’s homes if they were to make such a purchase in the near future. For each advertising theme-prospect segment combination the research would yield three percentages. For example, for theme #1 and the “very good” prospects, the research might show that 38 percent of the respondents found a model in the new line “most appealing” among all the models reviewed; that 26 percent requested further information about the Roland models; and that 17 percent indicated that they “most likely would purchase” one of the new Roland models. By comparing these three percentages for each advertising theme-prospect segment combination, it would be possible to identify the most promising combinations. These results could be weighed by the relative size of each prospect segment to decide which creative strategy would be most effective in generating sales interest in the new models. Questions for Discussion 1. 2. Would you recommend that Roland accept the YKG Group proposal? If yes, what conclusions can be drawn from the data in Phase 3 of the research? 3. If the proposal is not accepted, what alternative designs should be considered? 259 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT Learning Objectives ■ Introduce the concept of measurement and scaling in marketing research. ■ Briefly discuss the different scales in measurement. ■ Introduce the different types of scales used for measuring attitudes. ■ Give a description of each of the well-known scales that are used to measure attitudes. ■ Provide an approximate heuristic for choosing an attitude scale. ■ Discuss the concepts of reliability, validity, and generalizability. Most questions in marketing research surveys are designed to measure attitudes. The answers to these questions help decision makers in designing specific products or services to cater to the needs of segmented audiences. For example, each of the following situations involves the measurement of some aspect of a respondent’s attitude: 1. An appliance manufacturer wants to know how many potential buyers are aware of a brand name. (What brand names do they think of in connection with dishwashers?) 2. Administrators concerned with formulating an energy policy want to know what proportion of voters agree that car buyers should pay an extra tax of several hundred dollars on cars that get poor gasoline mileage. 3. A food manufacturer is interested in the intentions of a sample of consumers to buy a possible new product after the concept has been described to them. Common to each of these examples is a need to learn something about the basic orientation or attitude of present or prospective customers. Their attitudes are based on the information they have, their feelings (liking and disliking), and their intended behavior. What management really wants to understand—and ultimately influence—is behavior. For many reasons, however, they are likely to use attitude measures instead of behavior. First, there is a widely held belief that attitudes are precursors of behavior. If consumers like a brand, they are more likely to choose that brand over one they like less. Second, it is generally more feasible to ask attitude questions than to observe and interpret actual behavior. Attitude measures offer the greatest advantage over behavior measures in their capacity for diagnosis or explanation. Attitude measures can be used to help learn which features of a new product concept are acceptable or unacceptable, as well as the perceived strengths and weaknesses of competitive alternatives. Insights can be gained into the process by which choice decisions are made: What alternatives are known and considered? Why are some rejected? What problems are encountered with the products or services that are used? This chapter is concerned primarily with the measurement of attitudes. Some measurement approaches were encountered in earlier chapters. Projective techniques and physiological methods, discussed in Chapter 8, are indirect methods for inferring a person’s attitude. By far the most popular approach is the direct self-report, in which the respondent is asked a series of questions. The two previous chapters described the survey methods appropriate for such self-reports. 260 WHAT ARE ATTITUDES? This chapter and the next are devoted specifically to attitude measurements, in recognition of their importance to marketing and of the special problems of specifying and identifying attitudes. WHAT ARE ATTITUDES? What is attitude? How can it be measured for marketing research purposes? Attitude is psychological constructs, a way of conceptualizing the intangible. Attitudes can’t really be observed or measured directly because their existence is inferred from their consequences. On the other hand, people’s values and beliefs may dictate or affect their purchasing decisions. Values and beliefs in retrospect are influenced by a person’s attitude; conversely, values are the determinants of attitudes and belief involves evaluation. A person with more positive than negative beliefs toward a psychological object is judged to have a positive attitude. Attitude measurement techniques are generally systematic methods for abstracting the effective component of belief systems in order to generate an attitude score. Attitudes are the essence of the “human change agent” that all marketers strive to influence, but without the right tools to effectively measure attitude, attitudinal research has little to offer.1 Attitudes are mental states used by individuals to structure the way they perceive their environment and guide the way they respond to it. There is general acceptance that there are three related components that form an attitude: a cognitive or knowledge component, a liking or affective component, and an intentions or actions component. Each component provides a different insight into a person’s attitude. Cognitive or Knowledge Component The cognitive or knowledge component represents a person’s information about an object. This information includes awareness of the existence of the object, beliefs about the characteristics or attributes of the object, and judgments about the relative importance of each of the attributes. Consider the knowledge people might bring to planning a ski vacation in the Rockies. They might remember the names of several ski areas without prompting: Aspen, Snowmass, Alta, and Park City, for example. This is unaided-recall awareness. The names of additional ski areas are likely to be remembered when the travel agent mentions them. This is aided-recall awareness. Knowledge of ski areas is not limited to awareness, however. From the experience of friends, brochures, magazine articles, and other sources, a person will have formed beliefs or judgments about the characteristics or attributes of each of these ski areas. These attributes might range from the difficulty of the slopes to the type of social life and the cost of accommodations. Often, these beliefs incorporate explicit comparative judgments within a set, such as which ski area is the most difficult or the cheapest. Another kind of belief is an overall similarity judgment: Are Aspen and Snowmass more similar to each other than Aspen and Alta, for example? Affective or Liking Component The affective or liking component summarizes a person’s overall feelings toward an object, situation, or person, on a scale of like–dislike or favorable–unfavorable. When there are several alternatives to choose among, liking is expressed in terms of preference for one alternative over another. Preferences can be measured by asking which is “most preferred” or the “first choice,” which is the “second choice,” and so forth. Affective judgments also can be made about the attributes of an object, such as a ski area. Someone may like all other aspects of an area but dislike the location because it requires too much traveling. 261 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT Intention or Action Component The intention or action component refers to a person’s expectations of future behavior toward an object. Is he or she “very,” “somewhat,” or “not at all” likely to go to Aspen for a ski week next winter? Intentions usually are limited to a distinct time period that depends on buying habits and planning horizons. The great advantage of an intentions question is that it incorporates information about a respondent’s ability or willingness to pay for the object, or otherwise take action. One may prefer Aspen over all other ski areas in the Rockies but have no intention of going next year because of the cost. THE CONCEPT OF MEASUREMENT AND SCALING Measurement can be defined as a standardized process of assigning numbers or other symbols to certain characteristics of the objects of interest, according to some prespecified rules. Measurement often deals with numbers, because mathematical and statistical analyses can be performed only on numbers, and they can be communicated throughout the world in the same form without any translation problems. For a measurement process to be a standardized process of assignment, two characteristics are necessary. First, there must be one-to-one correspondence between the symbol and the characteristic in the object that is being measured. Second, the rules for assignment must be invariant over time and the objects being measured. Scaling is the process of creating a continuum on which objects are located according to the amount of the measured characteristic they possess. An illustration of a scale that is often used in research is the dichotomous scale for sex. The object with male (or female) characteristics is assigned the number 1 and the object with the opposite characteristics is assigned the number 0. This scale meets the requirements of the measurement process in that the assignment is one to one and it is invariant with respect to time and object. Measurement and scaling are basic tools used in the scientific method and are used in almost every marketing research situation. The decision of what type of scale is critically important since the scale type will dictate the method(s) of analysis that you will be able to use to analyze the data collected. For example, if you want to be able to calculate the average satisfaction the scale for the question asked must have certain scale properties be either inverval or ratio. If you want to show that two constructs are correlated they each must be measured with an interval or ratio scale. Therefore, you should think about the analysis you want to perform as you design the scales you will use on your questionnaire. Properties of Measurement Scales 262 The assignment of numbers is made according to rules that should correspond to the properties of whatever is being measured. The rule may be very simple, as when a bus route is given a number to distinguish it from other routes. Here, the only property is identity, and any comparisons of numbers are meaningless. This is a nominal scale. At the other extreme is the ratio scale, which has very rigorous properties. In between the extremes are ordinal scales and interval scales, as shown in Table 11-1. Attitude variables, such as beliefs, preferences, and intentions, are also measured using rating scales. These scales provide respondents with a set of numbered categories that represent the range of possible judgments or positions. An attitude scale involves measurement in the same sense that a thermometer measures temperature or a ruler measures distance. In each of these cases, measurement means the assignment of numbers to objects or persons to represent quantities of their attributes. For example, the attributes of a person include his or her income, social class, attitude, and so forth. Therefore, it is very important to understand the differences among the types THE CONCEPT OF MEASUREMENT AND SCALING TABLE 11-1 Types of Scales and Their Properties Types of Measurement Scale Types of Attitude Scale Rules for Assigning Number Other Typical Marketing Applications Nominal Dichotomous “yes” or “no” scale; “buy” or “not buy” scale Objects are either identical or different Classification (by sex, geographic area, social class) Percentages, mode/chi-square Ordinal or rank order Comparative, rank order, itemized category, paired comparison Objects are greater or smaller Rankings (preference, class standing) Percentile, median, rank-order correlation/ Friedman ANOVA Interval Likert, Thurstone, Stapel, associative, semantic-differential Intervals between adjacent objects are equal Index numbers, temperature scales, attitude measures Mean, standard deviation, product moment correlations/ t-tests, ANOVA, regression, factor analysis Ratio Certain scales with special instructions such as a constant sum scale There is a meaningful zero, so comparison of absolute magnitudes between objects is possible Sales, incomes, units produced, costs, age Geometric and harmonic mean, coefficient of variation Statistics/ Statistical Tests of scales and to be able to identify them in practice, for their properties put significant restrictions on the interpretation and use of the resulting measurements. Nominal Scale. In a nominal scale, objects are assigned to mutually exclusive, labeled categories, but there are no necessary relationships among the categories; that is, no ordering or spacing is implied. If one entity is assigned the same number as another, they are identical with respect to a nominal variable. Otherwise, they are just different. Sex, zip code, occupation, and marital status are nominally scaled variables. The only arithmetic operation that can be performed on such a scale is a count of each category. Thus, we can count the number of automobile dealers in the state of California or the number of males seen on a given bus route in the past hour. Ordinal Scale. An ordinal scale is obtained when objects are ranked or arranged in order with regard to some common variable. The question is simply whether each object has more or less of this variable than some other object. The scale provides no information as to how much difference there is between the objects. Because we do not know the amount of difference between objects, the permissible arithmetic operations are limited to statistics such as the median or mode (but not the mean). For example, suppose a sample of 1,000 consumers ranked five brands of frozen mixed vegetables according to quality. The results for Birds Eye brand were as follows: Quality Rank Number of Respondents Giving Ranking to Birds Eye First 150 Second 300 Third 250 Fourth 200 Fifth 100 Total 1,000 263 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT The “second” quality category is the mode; the “third” category is the median; however, it is not possible to compute a mean ranking, because the differences between ordinal scaled values are not necessarily the same. The finishing order in a horse race illustrates this type of scale since while one would know the order they finished, the distance between the horses could be very different. Similarly, brands of frozen vegetables can be ranked according to quality, from highest to lowest. Interval Scale. In an interval scale the numbers used to rank the objects also represent equal increments of the attribute being measured. This means that differences can be compared. The difference between 1 and 2 is the same as between 2 and 3, but is only half the difference between 2 and 4. The location of the zero point is not fixed, and therefore zero does not denote the absence of the attribute. Fahrenheit and Celsius temperatures are measured with different interval scales and have different zero points. Interval scales have very desirable properties, because virtually the entire range of statistical operations can be employed to analyze the resulting number, including addition and subtraction. Consequently, it is possible to compute an arithmetic mean from intervalscale measures. A recurring question regarding most attitude measures is whether or not they are interval scales. Usually it is doubtful that the intervals between categories are exactly equal, but they may not be so different as to preclude treating the whole as an interval scale. A good example is a “willingness to buy” scale with 10 categories labeled from 1 to 10. If this were an interval scale, we could say that two people with scores of 2 and 4, respectively, differed by the same degree of “willingness” as two other people with scores of 8 and 10. Further, only ratios of the differences in scale values can be meaningfully interpreted, not ratios of the absolute scale values. For example, the difference between 8 and 10 is twice the difference between 2 and 3, but 6 on the “willingness” scale does not represent three times the value of 2 in terms of the degree of willingness. This is due to the fact that zero has no real meaning. Ratio Scale. A ratio scale is a special kind of interval scale that has a naturally defined zero point. Examples would include weight, market share, or dollars in savings accounts. With a ratio scale it is possible to say how many times greater or smaller one object is than another. This is the only type of scale that permits us to make comparisons of absolute magnitude. For example, we can say that an annual income of $80,000 is two times as large as an income of $40,000. There have been some contemporary efforts to adapt ratio scales to the measurement of social opinion. Some researchers have attempted to use magnitude estimation scales to overcome the loss of information that results when categories arbitrarily constrain the range of opinion. Magnitude scaling of attitudes has been calibrated through numeric estimation. The following is an example of numeric estimation of social opinion:2 I would like to ask your opinion about how serious you think certain crimes are. The first situation is, “A person steals a bicycle parked on the street.” This has been given a score of 10 to show its seriousness. Use this situation to judge all others. For example, if you think a situation is 20 times more serious than the bicycle theft, the number you tell me should be around 200, or if you think it is half as serious, the number you tell me should be around 5, and so on. COMPARED TO THE BICYCLE THEFT AT SCORE 10, how serious is: A parent beats his young child with his fists. The child requires hospitalization. A person plants a bomb in a public building. The bomb explodes and 20 people are killed. . . . Magnitude scaling of this type has shown some interesting results, but there are problems with the technique. The researcher must be sure that the respondents have the competence to make these proportional judgments, which means that respondents must be allowed to practice before attempting the actual research questions. 264 TYPES OF ATTITUDE RATING SCALES TYPES OF ATTITUDE RATING SCALES There are many ways to present a respondent with a continuum of numbered categories that represent the range of possible attitude judgments. Figure 11-1 shows one of the ways the various attitudinal scales used in marketing research can be classified. They can be generally classified as single-item scales and multiple-item scales. Single-Item Scales As the name itself suggests, single-item scales are those that have only one item to measure a construct. Under the single-item scales, the itemized-category scale is the most widely used by marketing researchers. In some situations, comparative scales, rank-order scales, or constant-sum scales have advantages. Each of these major types of rating scales will be discussed in turn. Itemized-Category Scales. The following scale from the HMO study (discussed in Chapter 3) is an itemized-category scale. There are four categories from which respondents can choose to indicate their overall level of satisfaction with their present health insurance plan: _____ _____ _____ _____ Very satisfied Quite satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not at all satisfied This satisfaction scale has the following characteristics: 1. All categories are labeled. 2. The respondent is forced to make a choice; there is no provision for neutral opinion or “don’t know” responses. 3. There are more favorable than unfavorable categories, so the scale is unbalanced. 4. There is no explicit comparison of the respondent’s present plan with other health insurance plans. Attitude Scales Single-Item Scales ItemizedCategory Scales Comparative Scales Rank-Order Scales ConstantSum Scales Multi-Item Scales PairedComparison Scales Q-sort Scales Pictorial Scales Semantic Differential Scales Likert Scales Associative Scales Thurstone Scales Stapel Scales FIGURE 11-1 Classification of attitude scales. 265 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT 1. Extent of category description All categories labeled Polar categories labeled 2. Treatment of respondent uncertainty or ignorance Forced choice (no neutral point) Neutral point Provision of “don’t know” category 3. Balance of favorable and unfavorable categories Equal Unbalanced 4. Comparison judgment required Yes No FIGURE 11-2 Types of itemized category scales. The design of the satisfaction scale requires decisions along several dimensions, as shown in Figure 11-2. Note that for this scale there is no attempt to make the intervals between categories even approximately the same so this is an ordinal scale. A quite different scale would have resulted had the decision been to label only the polar or end categories, balance the favorable and unfavorable categories, and provide an obvious neutral category. A numerical scaling of the response categories from 2 to 2, as presented in the following chart, could help to create a scale that can be treated as an interval scale. This would be referred to as a quasi-interval scale. While evidence is mixed, it appears that an adequate approximation of an interval scale can be achieved with this procedure.3 Very Satisfied 2 Very Dissatisfied 1 0 1 2 Yet another set of choices is illustrated by the following scale, which was used to ask respondents in the HMO study about the various medical services (including private clinics, private doctors, and an existing HMO), on a number of attributes, one of which was quality of care provided. Q28 . . . “we are interested in your opinions about the medical services offered in this area . . . (a) Quality of medical care provided: (check one for each provider)” 266 Excellent Very Good Average Below Average Don’t Know Private doctors in area Private clinics Health organizations in the area The scale used for this question is unbalanced, with all categories labeled and a “don’t know” category provided, and implies a comparison with other health-care providers. The decision to use an unbalanced scale was based on an assumption of positively skewed attitudes toward all health-care providers. This assumption was borne out by the results, which showed that only 15 percent rated private doctors as average or below average. However, 31 percent replied “don’t know” to this question, indicating that they did not have sufficient experience to form a judgment. This could be thought of as a form of awareness question. In general, a “don’t know” category should be provided whenever respondents may have insufficient experience to make a meaningful attitude judgment. TYPES OF ATTITUDE RATING SCALES Comparative Scales. Another version of the preceding scale would label the categories “excellent,” “very good,” “good,” “fair,” and “poor,” thereby eliminating the implicit comparison. The problem with a comparative scale is that the reference point is unclear and different respondents may use different reference points or standards. Are private doctors rated “excellent” or “very good” because they are superior to the existing alternatives, or because they measure up to an ideal form of medical care provider? In marketing studies where competitive alternatives are being evaluated, some form of explicit or implicit comparison should be built into the scale; for example: Compared to private clinics in the area, the doctors in private practice provide a quality of medical care which is Very superior _____ _____ Neither superior nor inferior _____ _____ _____ Very inferior _____ _____ A recent review of research on the question of the appropriate number of response categories concluded:4 ■ ”Scales with two or three response alternatives generally are inadequate in that they are incapable of transmitting very much information and they tend to frustrate and stifle respondents.” ■ There is little to be gained from using more than nine categories. ■ An odd rather than an even number of categories is preferable when the respondent legitimately can adopt a neutral position. Rank-Order Scales. Rank-order scales require the respondent to arrange a set of objects with regard to a common criterion: advertisements in terms of interest, product features in terms of importance, or new-product concepts with regard to willingness to buy in the future. The result is an ordinal scale with the inherent limitations of weak scale properties. Ranking is widely used in surveys, however, because it corresponds to the choice process occurring in a shopping environment where a buyer makes direct comparisons among competing alternatives (brands, flavors, product variations, and so on). An example of a rank-order scale is given below. Please rank from 1 to 6 the following characteristics of the cellular phone service (1 is most important and 6 is least important, no ties allowed) Characteristics Rank Total cost of service ______ Reception clarity ______ Low fixed cost of service ______ Reliability of service ______ 24-hour customer service ______ Size of local coverage area ______ Rank-order scales are not without problems. Ranking scales are more difficult than rating scales because they involve comparisons, and hence require more attention and mental effort. The ranking technique may force respondents to make choices they might not otherwise make, which raises the issue of whether the researcher is measuring a real relationship or one that is artificially contrived. Due to the difficulties of rating, respondents usually cannot meaningfully rank more than five or six objects. The problem is not with the rankings of the first and last objects but with 267 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT those in the undifferentiated middle. When there are several objects, one solution is to break the ranking task into two stages. With nine objects, for example, the first stage would be to rank the objects into classes: top three, middle three, and bottom three. The next stage would be to rank the three objects within each class. When using paired comparisons, the objects to be ranked are presented two at a time, and the respondent has to choose between them according to some criterion such as overall preference or willingness to buy. Before a ranking of all objects can be obtained, all possible combinations of pairs have to be presented. This means that for n objects there are [n(n 1)兾2] comparisons. This is very manageable for five objects (10 comparisons), but with more objects the task can get out of hand. When 10 brands, for example, there are 45 paired comparisons. Paired-comparisons data have some potential analytical advantages, which will become apparent in Chapter 22, when we discuss multidimensional scaling. A serious problem, however, is that the comparison of two objects at a time is seldom the way choices are made in the marketplace; thus, an item may do well in a paired-comparison situation but perform poorly in an actual market situation.5 Despite these limitations, however, rankings still have much to recommend them if a researcher is interested in how consumers rank alternatives. Q-Sort Scaling. When the number of objects or characteristics that are to be rated or ranked is very large, it becomes rather tedious for the respondent to rank order or do a pairwise comparison. If the respondent is forced to do a rank ordering or a pairwise comparison, a number of problems and biases creep into the study. To deal with such a situation, the Q-sort scaling process is used. In Q-sort scaling the respondents are asked to sort the various characteristics or objects that are being compared into various groups, such that the objects in each group are viewed as the most similar. Then the respondent can rank order the cards within each group which would be a much easier task. For example, let us take the case of a toy manufacturing company such as Toys ‘R’ Us developing a new product. After a marathon brainstorming session, the new-product team has come up with a hundred different products, each with minor variations in features, and wants to test and find out from consumers which feature combination is the most preferred and will generate the maximum sales. The best scaling procedure that can be used in this context is Q-sort scaling. The procedure the respondent is asked to use is as follows. Each respondent is handed 100 cards, each containing a product with various features. The respondent is then asked to sort the cards into 12 different piles in such a way that one pile contains what they feel is the most preferred among the products that have been developed, and another pile contains the least preferred of the products that have been developed. The other 10 piles will contain cards with products that vary gradually from those with higher preference to those with lower preference. The number of cards in each pile is normally distributed as shown in Figure 11-3. In this particular case, only five cards can be placed in the most and the least preferred product piles. After placing all the cards in the piles, the respondent is asked to rank-order only those products in the mostpreferred pile or in the top few sets of piles. In Q-sort scaling, a relatively large number of groups or piles should be used (10 or more). This increases the reliability or precision of the results. Constant-Sum Scales. Constant-sum scales require respondents to allocate a fixed number of rating points (usually 100) among several objects, to reflect the relative preference for each object.6 It is widely used to measure the relative importance of attributes, as in the following example. Please divide 100 points among the following characteristics so the division reflects the relative importance of each characteristic to you in the selection of a health care plan. 268 Ability to choose a doctor Extent of coverage provided Quality of medical care Monthly cost of the plan Distance to clinic or doctor from your home TOTAL _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ 100 TYPES OF ATTITUDE RATING SCALES 12 Number of cards in pile 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Pile number 8 9 10 11 FIGURE 11-3 Plot of number of cards in each pile. The most attractive feature of this scale is the quasi-interval nature of the resulting scale. However, just how close it comes to a true interval scale has not been fully established. The scale is limited in the number of objects or attributes it can address at one time. Respondents sometimes have difficulty allocating points accurately among more than a few categories. Pictorial Scales. In pictorial scales the various categories of the scale are depicted pictorially. The respondents are shown a concept or read an attitudinal statement and are asked to indicate their degree of agreement or interest by indicating the corresponding position on the pictorial scale. Therefore, in designing a format, it is of prime importance to design one that the respondent will comprehend and that will enable him or her to respond accurately. Commonly used pictorial scales are the thermometer scale and the funny faces scale. Pictorial scales are used mainly when the respondents are young children or with people who are illiterate. Paired-Comparison Scales. The brands to be rated were presented two at a time, so each brand in the category was compared once to every other brand. In each pair the respondents were asked to divide 10 points among the brands, on the basis of how much they liked one compared to the other. A score was then totaled for each brand. Although this scale performs well on the criteria, it is cumbersome to administer. Another possible limitation is that the frame of reference is always the other brands in the set being tested. These brands may change over time. Several features are shared by all three of the most effective scales: ■ They restrict the numbers of highly positive ratings that can be given, either by forcing a choice or by comparing brands directly. ■ They provide a limited number of categories that have verbal anchors. Respondents prefer words to numbers, and especially avoid negative numbers. Also, including more than seven categories may actually reduce the scale’s power to discriminate. ■ The stimulus to the respondent is simple and unambiguous. One of the worst-performing scales presented a picture of a thermometer with 10 categories of liking; each was labeled by a number from 0 to 100, as well as an assortment of verbal anchors. For example, 80 was labeled “like very much” while 50 was “indifferent” and 30 was “not so good.” 269 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT Although these issues are useful, and should be carefully considered, the best guidance still comes from carefully tailoring the scale to the research objectives, followed by thorough pretesting for comprehension and discrimination. Issues in Designing Single-Item Scales. Attitude rating scales are widely used to test the effectiveness of advertising copy or compare the performance of new product concepts and segment markets. Despite years of experience with these applications, the design of the rating scale is usually an ad hoc judgment based on the researcher’s preferences and past experiences in similar situations. The various decisions that a researcher has to make regarding the form and structure of the scale while designing a scale are described briefly below: 1. Number of scale categories. Theoretically, the number of rating-scale categories can vary from two to infinity. A continuous rating scale has infinite categories, whereas the number of categories in a discontinuous scale depends on several factors, such as the capabilities of the scalers, the format of the interview, and the nature of the object.7 For example, if the survey is done by telephone, the number of categories that a scale can have is very limited, because the memory of the respondent is limited. 2. Types of poles used in the scale. All rating scales have verbal descriptors or adjectives that serve as end points or anchors. The scale can have a single pole or two poles. An example of a two-pole scale is “sweet . . . not sweet,” and an example of a scale with a single pole is the Stapel scale, which is discussed later. The advantage of the single-pole scale over the scale with double poles is ease of construction, as one need not look for adjectives to achieve bipolarity. The disadvantage is that we do not know what each category represents in a singlepole scale. 3. Strength of the anchors. By strength of the anchor we refer to the intensity of the adjective that is used to anchor the scale. A rating-scale anchor could vary from “extremely colorful” to “very colorful” to “colorful.” Anchor strength has been found to shape scale-response distributions; the stronger the anchors, the less likely scalers are to use the extreme scale categories, so the resulting scale response distribution will be more peaked. 4. Labeling of the categories. Another decision that has to be made while developing scales is whether to label every category of the scale or to label only the extreme categories. Labeling all categories reduces the scale’s ambiguity.8 Evidence also shows that using such terms as “very” or “somewhat” markedly influences responses to scales.9 5. Balance of the scale. A related decision is whether category labels should be balanced or unbalanced. A balanced four-category scale to measure the smell of a perfume could be The smell of Morning Dew is… _____ Very good _____ Good _____ Bad _____ Very bad while a corresponding unbalanced scale might be expressed as _____ Superb _____ Very good _____ Good _____ Average Generally, a balanced scale is preferred to an unbalanced scale in order to obtain meaningful results. 270 There is little argument on the criteria a rating scale ideally should satisfy. The results should be reliable and valid, and there should be a sharp discrimination among the objects being rated and a sensitivity to advertising or product stimuli. These criteria are seldom employed in practice. Part of the reason is the sheer variety of rating scales. The real problem is the absence of empirical evidence on the performance of the various rating scales on these criteria. However, one study of different scales did shed some useful light on the subject, and can help us narrow down the set of acceptable scales.10 TYPES OF ATTITUDE RATING SCALES Respondents in the study were given various subsets of the scales, and asked to rate six brands in each of six package-goods categories such as coffee, analgesics, detergents, and toothpaste. Three criteria were used to compare the performance of the scales: (1) response distribution, which is the ability to avoid having responses pile up in the end categories; (2) discrimination among brands in the category; and (3) concurrent validity—how well the ratings related to current brand usage. Two scales were found to be particularly attractive: ■ Brand Awareness Scale. This question asked: When I mention detergents, what brand do you think of? Any others? Have you heard of (interviewer mentions other brands of interest that were not reported)? _____ First unaided mention _____ Second unaided mention _____ Other unaided mention _____ Aided recall _____ Never heard of This scale was consistently the best discriminator among brands and had high concurrent validity. By design, it yielded uniform distributions of responses. ■ Verbal Purchase Intent Scale. The question asked: What is the chance of your buying (brand) the next time you purchase this product? Definitely buy _____ Probably buy _____ Might buy _____ Probably not buy _____ Definitely not buy _____ This balanced scale made efficient use of the five categories, distributing the responses quite uniformly. The labels were easy for the respondents to handle. On average it discriminated well. Multiple Item Scales Attitudes toward complex objects such as health plans, automobiles, credit instruments, or transportation modes have many facets. Thus it is often unrealistic to attempt to capture the full picture with one overall attitude-scale question. For example, the public appears to support the general idea of income tax reform but opposes the elimination of the most popular tax loopholes. While beliefs in any specific issue, aspect, or characteristic are useful indicators of the overall attitude, there may be unusual reasons that make the single belief unrepresentative of the general position.11 To cope with this problem, a variety of methods have been developed to measure a sample of beliefs toward the attitude objects (such as agreement or disagreement with a number of statements about the attitude object) and combine the set of answers into some form of average score. The most frequently employed of these methods are Likert, Thurstone, and semantic-differential scales. An adaptation of these methods, with particular relevance to marketing problems, is associative scaling. Likert Scales. Likert scales require a respondent to indicate a degree of agreement or disagreement with a variety of statements related to the attitude or object. They are also called summated scales, because the scores on the individual items are summed to produce a total score for the respondent. A Likert scale usually consists of two parts, the item part and the evaluative part. The item part is essentially a statement about a certain product, event, or attitude. The evaluative part is a list of response categories ranging from “strongly agree” to “strongly disagree.” An important assumption of this scaling method is that each of the items (statements) measures some aspect of a single common factor; otherwise, the items cannot legitimately be summed. In other words, the resulting scale is unidimensional. The Likert scaling method, then, refers to the several steps in the procedure for culling out the items that do not 271 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT belong. The result is a series of 5 to 20 or more statements and questions, of which those given below are illustrative. Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree Somewhat Disagree Strongly 1. There needs to be much improvement in the health insurance available for people like me. 2. I have a variety of very good health plans from which to choose. 3. I haven’t heard of a health insurance plan that will protect me against a disastrous illness. Thurstone Scales. The procedure of Thurstone scales is also known as the method of equalappearing intervals, since the objective is to obtain a unidimensional scale with interval properties. The first step is to generate a large number of statements or adjectives reflecting all degrees of favorableness toward the attitude objects. Then, a group of judges is given this set of items (as many as 75 to 100 in all) and asked to classify them according to their degree of favorableness or unfavorableness. Usually, this is done with an 11-category bipolar scale, with “very favorable” at one end, “very unfavorable” at the other, and a neutral position in the middle. The judges are instructed to treat the intervals between categories as equal and to make evaluations of each item without expressing their own attitudes. The scale value of each item is the median position to which it is assigned by the judges. Items that have been placed in many different categories are discarded as ambiguous because there was no consensus among the judges. The resulting scale consists of 10 to 20 items that are distributed uniformly along the scale of favorability. The scale then is administered as part of a survey by asking each respondent to select those statements which best reflect his or her feelings toward the attitude object. The respondent’s attitude score is the average of the scale scores of the chosen statements. Because of the two-stage procedure, a Thurstone scale is both time consuming and expensive to construct; however, the scale itself is easy to administer and requires a minimum of instructions. Because there is not an explicit response to each item in the scale, it does not have as much diagnostic value as a Likert scale. Thurstone scales also have been criticized because the scale values themselves may depend on the attitudes of the original judges. This seems to be a problem only with topics that elicit strong feelings, such as abortion or school integration. Semantic-Differential Scales. Semantic-differential scales are used widely to describe the set of beliefs that comprise a person’s image of an organization or brand. The procedure is also an insightful procedure for comparing the images of competing brands, stores, or services.12 Respondents are asked to rate each attitude object in turn on a number of five- or seven-point rating scales, bounded at each end by polar adjectives or phrases. Some researchers prefer unipolar scales, while others use bipolar scales. In either case, the respondent chooses the end point only if that adjective is closely descriptive of that object. However, the midpoint of the scale has two 272 TYPES OF ATTITUDE RATING SCALES different meanings, depending on the type of scale. With unipolar scales, the midpoint is simply a step on the scale from “sweet” to “not sweet,” whereas on a bipolar scale it is a neutral point. Low price ______ ______ _______ ______ ______ High price Consistent quality ______ ______ _______ ______ ______ Spotty quality Tangy ______ ______ _______ ______ ______ Smooth Bitter ______ ______ _______ ______ ______ Not bitter There may be as many as 15 to 25 semantic-differential scales for each attitude object. The scales in the preceding chart were used in a beer-brand image study in a U.S. regional market. (Only 4 of a total of 10 scales are shown.) Each of 10 brands was evaluated separately on the same set of 10 scales, for comparison. This set of scales is characteristic of most marketing applications of the semantic differential: 1. The pairs of objects or phrases are selected carefully to be meaningful in the market being studied and often correspond to product or service attributes.13 Exploratory research generally is required to ensure that important attributes are represented and described in words that are familiar to respondents.14 2. The negative or unfavorable pole is sometimes on the right side and sometimes on the left. This rotation is necessary to avoid the halo effect, in which the location of previous judgments on the scale affects subsequent judgments because of respondent carelessness. 3. The category increments are treated as interval scales, so group mean values can be computed for each object on each scale. As with Likert scaling, this assumption is controversial, but is adopted because it permits more powerful methods of analysis to be used. The semantic differential also may be analyzed as a summated rating scale. Each of the seven scale categories is assigned a value from 3 to 3 or 1 to 7, and the scores across all adjective pairs are summed for each respondent. Individuals then can be compared on the basis of their total scores. Summation is not usually advisable, however, for a good deal of specific information is lost in the aggregate score, which may be distorted if there are several scales that measure roughly the same thing. Profile Analysis. Profile analysis is an application of the semantic-differential scale. Visual comparisons of the images of different objects can be aided by plotting the mean ratings for each object on each scale. To show what can be done, Figure 11-4 compares the ratings for two well-known national brands of beer and a regional brand, on 6 of the 10 scales. Even with three brands and only 6 of 10 attributes, the interpretation of the profiles is not easy. With more brands and attributes, the overall comparisons of brands are even harder to grasp. A second difficulty is that not all attributes are independent; that is, several of the attributes may be measuring approximately the same dimension. For example, to most beer drinkers there is not likely to be much difference in the meaning of the “tangy–smooth” and “bitter–not bitter” scales. This is borne out by the similarity of the scores of the three brands on these two scales in Figure 11-4. Fortunately, there are several procedures using multidimensional scaling techniques that can deal effectively with these problems and yield easily interpreted spatial maps that describe the overall image of a brand. These are discussed in detail in Chapters 21 and 22, which deal with methods for analyzing interdependencies among variables. Stapel Scales. Stapel scales are simplified versions of semantic-differential scales, which use only one pole rather than two. Respondents are asked to indicate the object by selecting a numerical response category. The higher the positive score, the better the adjective describes the object. 273 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT Heavy Light Regional brand Low price High price Millers Spotty quality Consistent quality Budweiser Tangy Smooth Poor flavor Good flavor Bitter 1 2 3 4 5 Not bitter Mean Rating FIGURE 11-4 Profile analysis of three beer brands. A typical format for this scale is shown for Coors beer as it would be adapted to the measurement of beer brand attitudes. The main virtue of this scale is that it is easy to administer and construct, because there is no need to provide adjectives or phrases to assure bipolarity.15 Coors Beer 3 3 2 Heavy 3 12 2 1 Consistent 11 1 quality 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 Tangy 1 Associative Scaling. Although the semantic-differential and Stapel scales are used widely for image studies, they have substantial limitations in markets where the average respondent is likely to be knowledgeable only about a small subset among a large number of choice alternatives. They also can be cumbersome and time consuming to administer when there are a number of attributes and alternatives to consider. An alternative approach, associative scaling, designed to overcome these limitations, asks the respondent simply to associate one alternative with each question. The questions in Figure 11-5 illustrate how this approach is employed in a telephone survey of retail-store images. The technique is argued to be particularly appropriate to choice situations that involve a sequential decision process. For example, supermarkets have to be within a reasonable distance to be considered, and within that set the choice is made on the basis of which chain is best in satisfying customers’ needs. Of course, the technique does not answer the questions of how consumers make trade-offs when there are several important dimensions and no alternative is superior across the board. Thus the benefits of low cost and ease of telephone administration are purchased at a possible cost of reduced validity in representing the market structure. For this reason the associative technique is best suited to market tracking, where the emphasis is on understanding shifts in relative competitive positions. 274 Eaton’s Store or Catalog The Bay Sayvette Towers Woolco Zellers Any Other None DK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 2. Has the highest overall prices? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 3. Is the easiest one to get to from your home? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 4. Has the most knowledgeable, helpful sales clerks? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 5. Has the highest-quality products? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 6. Has the lowest-quality products? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 7. Gives you the best overall value for the money? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 8. Gives you the worst overall value for the money? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 9. Has the best advertising? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 10. Is the best for the latest, most fashionable merchandise? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 11. Has the largest overall merchandise selection or assortment? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X 12. Do you shop at most often? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 B X Which store 1. Has the lowest overall prices? 275 ATTITUDE RATING SCALES FIGURE 11-5 Retail-store image questions (telephone questionnaire). OF Horizon More Than One Answer TYPES Simpsons Sears Store or Catalog CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT GENERAL GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPING A MULTIPLE-ITEM SCALE Multiple-item scales very often are used in social sciences research to measure abstract constructs. The characteristic that is to be measured is generally referred to as the construct. Most of the well-known scales that measure constructs, such as IQ, consumer confidence, and so on, are multiple-item scales. Developing a multiple-item scale is a complex procedure and requires quite a lot of technical expertise. Figure 11-6 presents the various steps in the development of a multiple-item scale. The stages of development are discussed below. 1. Determine clearly what it is that you want to measure. The scale should be well grounded in theory. Relevant social science theories should always be considered before developing the scale. The construct to be measured and the scale itself should be specific. The meaning and the definition of the construct should be clearly distinguishable from other constructs. 2. Generate as many items as possible. Items essentially are statements that are relevant to the construct. The content of each item should reflect primarily the construct of interest. If items are being written anew, they should be written with as much creativity as possible. The greater the number of initial items generated, the better the final scale will be. The items that are developed should not be too long, nor should they pose any reading difficulty to the respondent. Determine clearly what you are going to measure. Generate as many items as possible. Ask experts in the field to evaluate the initial pool of items. Determine the type of attitudinal scale to be used. Include some items that will help in the validation of the scale. Administer the items to an initial sample. Evaluate and refine the items. Finally, optimize the scale length. 276 FIGURE 11-6 Steps in multiple-item scale development. INTERPRETING ATTITUDE SCALES 3. Ask experts to evaluate the initial pool of items. Experts are people who have worked or are currently working on the phenomenon that is being studied. They can be either business managers or academics who are doing research on that particular phenomenon. Having experts review the item pool can confirm or invalidate the definition of the construct. Experts can also give inputs on the relevancy, clarity, and conciseness of the items. Based on the experts’ evaluation, the initial pool of items is modified. Some items are dropped while others are added, and a few of the existing ones are changed. 4. Determine the type of attitudinal scale to be used. The next step in the multiple-item scaling process is to decide on the type of scale to be employed. The various scales such as the Likert scale, semantic-differential scale, Thurstone, and associative scales have already been discussed. In fact, the type of attitudinal scale to be used has to be decided quite early, because the wording of the items varies with each scale format. 5. Include validation items in the scale. Certain items are added to the scale in order to improve the scale’s validity and also to detect certain flaws in it. An example of items that can be included in the scale to increase the validity of the results is those that are socially desirable. Some respondents answer in a certain fashion because they want to be perceived as socially desirable. In order to weed out such answers, items of social desirability are added to the scale. Those responses that correlate highly with social desirability are then dropped. 6. Administer the items to an initial sample. Once it has been determined which construct-related items are to be included in the scale, the next step is to administer the scale to an initial sample. This is done to check the validity of the items. This will yield the best results if the sample size is large and the sample is representative of the population. 7. Evaluate and refine the items of the scale. The ultimate quality that is sought in an item is high correlation with the true score of the latent variable that is being measured. The properties that the items of a scale should possess are high intercorrelation, high item scale correlation, high item variances, a mean close to the center of the range of possible scores, and a high coefficient alpha. The items in the scale are then evaluated on the basis of these criteria. 8. Optimize scale length. The larger the scale, the greater the reliability, but shorter scales are easier for the respondent to answer. Hence, a balance has to be struck between brevity and reliability, and the optimal scale length has to be determined. Certain items in the scale are dropped or modified, then the final scale is ready to be administered to the respondent. INTERPRETING ATTITUDE SCALES Conclusions obtained from attitude-scale measurements are strictly limited by the properties of the scale that is used. Failure to recognize these limits can lead to serious misinterpretation, as we see from Marketing Research in Action 11-1. The problem was created by assuming a ratio scale where there was really only an interval scale. MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 11-1 Interpreting Attitude Scales: A Problem for the Advertising Review Board The Phoenix Drug Co. currently sells the leading brand of tranquilizers, known as Restease. A competitor, Montfort Drug Co., recently announced a tranquilizer brand called Calm, which they claim to be 50 percent more effective in reducing tension than the leading brand. As product manager for Restease you are concerned and also angry, because you don’t believe there is a significant difference in effectiveness. Your first action is to complain to the National Advertising Review Board (NARB), an advertising industry-sponsored body that investigates advertising claims and can put considerable pressure on advertisers to change their claims. 277 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION 11-1 (continued) As part of the investigation of your complaint, the research director from Montfort Drug is asked by the NARB to present the research findings that support the claim. Among the findings are the results of an apparently well-designed comparison test with large sample sizes. In the test, one group of product users was given Restease capsules. After a month, each user was asked to rate the effectiveness of the brand as follows: For easing tension I found Restease to be: Very effective Effective Neither effective nor ineffective Ineffective Very ineffective Another group of product users, identical in all respects to the first group, was given Calm capsules and asked to rate the effectiveness of this brand on the same scale. The research director for Montfort Drug coded the scale with a 2 for “very effective,” 1 for “effective,” 0 for “neither effective nor ineffective,” 1 for “ineffective,” and 2 for “very ineffective.” The director correctly points out that this is a well-accepted coding convention. When the data for the two groups are summarized, the average response for the Calm user groups is calculated to be 1.2, while the average for Restease is 0.8. Because the 0.4 difference is 50 percent more than the 0.8 level achieved by Restease, the director concludes that the claims of superior effectiveness are valid. While you are listening to this argument, the research director from your company has taken the same data and calculated that Calm is only 10.5 percent more effective, rather than 50 percent as claimed. Immediately you examine the figures. The only difference is that the “very effective” category has been coded 1, and “very ineffective” assigned 5, with the middle category assigned 3. It is argued that this is an equally acceptable coding procedure. The two different coding schemes are as follows: Very effective 2 1 Effective 1 2 Neither effective nor ineffective 0 3 Ineffective 1 4 Very ineffective 2 5 Soon you will be asked to present the basis of your complaint to the Review Board. What do you say about the capacity of the data presented by your competitor to support its claim of superiority? SOURCE: Adapted from B. Venkatesh, “Unthinking Data Interpretation Can Destroy Value of Research,” Marketing News, January 27, 1978, pp. 6, 9. CHOOSING AN ATTITUDINAL SCALE The choice of an appropriate scale is complicated by two problems: 1. There are many different techniques, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. 2. Virtually any technique can be adapted to the measurement of any one of the attitude components. 278 While these problems are significant impediments to broad generalizations, it is also true that all techniques are not equally suitable for all purposes. Table 11-2 summarizes some useful rules of thumb as to which scale types are likely to be best suited to the various components of attitudes. What is most evident from this table is the versatility of the itemized-category scale, which itself has many variations. Ultimately, the researcher’s choice will be shaped by (1) the specific information that is required to satisfy the research objectives, (2) the adaptability of the scale to the data collection method and budget constraints, and (3) the compatibility of the scale with the structure of the respondent’s attitude. CHOOSING AN ATTITUDINAL SCALE TABLE 11-2 Appropriate Applications of Various Attitude Scales Type of Scale Itemized Category Rank Order Constant Sum Likert Knowledge awareness attribute beliefs attribute importance a a a b b b a b b a Affect or liking overall preferences specific attributes a a b b a b b b b a Action intentions a b a b Attitude Component Semantic Differential a Very appropriate b Sometimes appropriate The value of careful selection and adaptation of scales will be demonstrated by a study of attitudes toward automobile dealers. The data came from a mail survey of people who had purchased a new car from an automobile dealer between one and two years earlier.16 Each respondent rated 14 attributes of the dealer’s service department, on two separate scales. The first scale asked how important the attribute was (on a four-point scale ranging from “extremely important” to “not important”). The second scale asked how well the service department performed (on a four-point scale from “excellent” to “poor”). Each attribute was located in the grid shown in Figure 11-7, according to its median score on the two scales. A. Concentrate here B. Keep up the good work Extremely 1 important 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fair performance Excellent performance 11 12 13 14 C. Low priority Slightly important FIGURE 11-7 Importance–performance grid. D. Possible overkill 279 CHAPTER 11 ATTITUDE MEASUREMENT TABLE 11-3 Comparison of Two Rating Techniques Attribute Median Importance Rating Illustrative Constant-Sum Scale Customer A Customer B 1. Job done right the first time 3.8 35 25 2. Fast action on complaints 3.6 15 20 3. Prompt warranty work 3.6 10 15 4. Able to do any job needed 3.6 10 10 5. Service available when needed 3.4 15 20 6. Courteous and friendly service 3.4 15 10 100 100 To illustrate how the grid can be used, quadrant A includes those attributes, such as “low prices on service” (attribute 10), which are very important, and where performance is rated only fair. By contrast, in quadrant B, customers place a high value on “courteous and friendly service” (attribute 6) and “prompt warranty work” (attribute 3), and are pleased with the dealer’s performance. In quadrant C, the dealer’s performance is rated low in terms of providing courtesy buses and rental cars, but fortunately these are not perceived as important services. While the importance–performance grid yields useful insights, this application suffered from the inability of the four-point rating scale to discriminate. Ten of the 14 attributes had median ratings between 3.3 and 3.8 on