Singapore: A tiny little red dot located about 85 miles north of the Equator. Many are unable
to find Her on the globe, but most have heard of this garden city where people from all walks
of life with their own cultural distinctiveness and strengths come together, whilst still
maintaining good relations with each other. However, as Singapore passes her 60th birthday
on 9 August 2022, there are still many threats to our way of life; climate change, loss of
territory due to military invasion, a large drop in population size and the lack of a
Singaporean identity. The biggest threat that Singapore faces in the next 50 years would be
maintaining Singapore’s identity. In this essay, I will be ranking the 4 threats mentioned
above in terms of their severity and explaining my ranking.
Firstly, the lowest of threats amongst the mentioned is military invasion by hostile power.
Being a small country, Singapore is very prone to military invasions by our neighbouring
countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia. For example, on 9th August 1991, when
Singaporeans were celebrating the nation’s 26th birthday, Malaysia and Indonesia were
conducting a bilateral military exercise just 20km away in Kota Tinggi, Southern Johor with
live firing. The purpose of the exercise may have been to test the cooperation and response in
case a neighbouring country turned hostile. The timing of the exercise, “Pukul Habis” also
appeared to be more than just a coincidence, where Mr Goh Chok Tong had recently taken
over as Prime Minister (The Must Share News Team - et al., 2018). Another example is when
Moscow issued a list of countries and territories including Singapore that “commit unfriendly
actions” against Russia, its companies, and citizens. However, despite all these threats,
Singapore is unlikely to be invaded.
Singapore is considered as an international trade hub, one of the worlds most connected
countries, strategically located along the worlds’ major trade, shipping, and aviation routes.
Furthermore, Singapore enjoys good relations with the United Kingdom who are also allies in
the Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA), alongside Malaysia, Australia, and New
Zealand. Good relations are also maintained with the United States of America (USA). With
Singapore having these few nations as their allies, it is highly unlikely, yet not impossible,
that military invasion by hostile power is that big of a threat to Singapore in the next 50
years.
Secondly, the next threat is climate change. Climate change has contributed to rising sea
levels in Singapore. Sea levels in Singapore had gone up by 14cm since pre-1920 levels.
(Tan, 2022) An increase in intensity of weather variability could present significant
challenges to the management of our water resources. Periods of drought can affect the
reliability of Singapore’s water supply, while sudden episodes of intense rainfall could
overwhelm our drainage system and lead to flash floods. In 2021 alone, there has been 8
instances where Singapore has experienced flash floods across the country. (Pub) There can
also be effects on Singapore’s biodiversity and greenery. A mean temperature increase of
1.5oC to 2.5oC could affect the natural diversity of Singapore’s plants and animals at risk, as
this alters our ecosystem’s natural process such as soil formation, nutrient storage, and
pollution absorption (Chua, 2020).
However, Singapore is a very small country, the measures we take will not be as helpful or
effective, if bigger countries like China and USA do not start taking more measures to control
greenhouse gasses and recycling.
Thirdly, one of the more alarming threats is a sharp reduction in population size. There has
been a decline of 4.1% in Singapore population, the largest year-on-year decline since 1950
(Ong, 2021). The resident total fertility rate has dropped to a record low of 1.1 last year. The
number of working citizens fell from 65.1% in 2011 to the current 61.9% and is expected to
drop to a low of 56% in 2030. With an aging population, and a lack of childbirth, this sets up
gaps in the labour market. This will cause a strain on the workforce. Lower birth rates lead to
a smaller pool of young people entering the workforce. This coupled with an aging
population can put a strain on resources. Singapore will not be able to achieve economic
growth, which is crucial for creating more jobs and growing wages. More importantly with
slower business activity and employment opportunities, it will become more difficult to
match the higher aspirations of a better educated and mobile Singaporean population, this
may hollow out our population and workforce and worse our ration of younger to older
Singaporeans. With the growing numbers of senior citizens, healthcare and long-term care
spending is expected to increase, resulting in a smaller number of people in the work force
having to pay higher taxes to support the ageing population and their forever growing needs.
As the economy starts to be stagnant, it will be a strain on our resources to invest in
infrastructure, or to address the needs of lower-income Singaporeans. Without economic
growth, social and welfare programmes can quickly become unsustainable. Therefore, the
problem of a sharp decline in population is one of the bigger threats that Singapore is
currently facing.
Lastly, the biggest threat that Singapore will experience is the lack of consensus on a
coherent Singaporean identity. As a large part of Singapore’s talent goes overseas and
Singaporeans become divided at home due to various social and economic fault lines- from
income disparities to LGBT issues- the very idea of a Singaporean identity would be
threatened. A sense of Singaporean identity is something that the government is unable to
create, however it can be forged by citizens when they face adversity and over it and
celebrating the success together. A few examples would be the passing of Mr Lee Kuan Yew,
and in the SEA games when Joseph Schooling clinched the gold medal for Singapore. Since
the government is unable to do anything about it and is only going to continue to worsen due
to the different issues arising in Singapore which causes disputes amongst Singaporeans and
the government, that the lack of consensus on a coherent Singaporean identity will be the
biggest downfall to Singapore.
In conclusion, issues such as military invasion, climate change and a sharp drop in population
are threats to Singapore that the Singaporean government can assist in and to help prevent.
However, the lack of a coherent Singaporean identity; something that brings people together,
is something that is currently lacking and will cause Singaporeans to lose the feeling of
‘home’ in Singapore will eventually be the greatest threat to the Singaporean way of life in 50
years.
Sources:
Tan, C. (2022, March 7). Corals show rising sea levels in Singapore 'very likely' due to
climate change. The Straits Times. Retrieved March 21, 2022, from
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/corals-show-rising-sea-levels-in-singaporevery-likely-due-to-climate-change
Pub. (n.d.). Pub. PUB, Singapore's National Water Agency. Retrieved March 21, 2022, from
https://www.pub.gov.sg/drainage/floodmanagement/recentflashfloods
Ong, J. (2021, September 30). Population decline raises issues around Singapore Society,
identity. The Straits Times. Retrieved March 22, 2022, from
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/debrief-population-decline-raisesissues-around-singapore-society-identity
The Must Share News Team -, By, -, The Must Share News TeamTeamwork makes the
dream work., Team, T. M. S. N., & work., T. makes the dream. (2018, December 10).
Entire SAF was mobilised 27 years ago, due to joint military exercise in Johor. Must
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https://mustsharenews.com/saf-mobilised-national-day/
Yahoo! (n.d.). Singapore named by Russia in list of countries for 'unfriendly actions'. Yahoo!
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Chua, C. (n.d.). Climate change: How Singapore is saving its shores from rising sea levels.
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