Chapter 1: Overview of Statistics 1. What is Statistics “Statistics is a way to get information from data.” (Gerald Keller) “Statistics is the art and science of collecting, analyzing, presenting and interpreting data.” (Anderson et. al.) “Statistics is a tool for creating new understanding from a set of numbers.” (Oxford English Dictionary) 2. Data vs. Information - Data - Information Average = 48.67 Min = 43.33 Max = 53.33 Range = 10 … 3. Plural or Singular? - Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting, presenting data and drawing conclusions from data. - A statistic is a single measure, reported as a number, used to summarize a sample data set; for example, the average height of students in the class. 4. Two Branches of Statistics - Statistics: The branch of mathematics that transforms data into useful information for decision makers. + Descriptive Statistics Collecting, summarizing, presenting and analyzing data + Inferential Statistics Using data collected from a small group to draw conclusions about a larger group 5. Descriptive Statistics - Collect data e.g., Survey - Present data e.g., Tables and graphs - Characterize data e.g., Sample mean = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 𝑛 6. Inferential Statistics - Estimation e.g., Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight - Hypothesis testing e.g., Test the claim that the population mean weight is 65kgs Drawing conclusions about a population based on sample results. 7. Overview of Statistics 8. Why study statistics? - Many working opportunities - Better understanding of data analysis reports - Avoiding deceptive and spurious arguments - Improving communication and problem solving - Developing critical and analytical thinking … 9. Communicating with Numbers Compare Table 1.1 and Figure 1.2. Which is more helpful in understanding U.S. trademark activity in recent years? 10. Critical Thinking - Statistics allows us to test an idea against empirical evidence. - Empirical data represent data collected through observation and experiments. - Statistical tools are used to compare prior ideas with empirical data. 11. Applications of Statistics - Auditing: (kiểm toán): Statistical sampling procedures are used when conducting audits. - Economics: Statistical information is used in making forecasts about the future of the economy. - Marketing: A survey of customer preference on a product or service. - Production: Statistical quality control charts are used to monitor the output of a production process. - Finance: Statistical information is used to guide an investment. - Operations Management: Manage inventory by forecasting consumer demand. 12. Common Logical Pitfalls - Making Conclusions about a Large Population from a Small Sample Ex: Smoking is not dangerous. My uncle smoked all his life and lived to 100. - Making Conclusions from Nonrandom Samples Ex: Rock stars die young. Look at John Lennon, Michael Jackson, Whitney Houston - Conclusions From Rare Events Ex: Tom’s SUV rolled over. SUV is dangerous - Using Poor Survey Methods Ex: How many of you remember integral from your math class 13. Common Statistical Pitfalls - Assuming a Causal Link Based on Observations Ex: Crime rates were higher during the full moon. Full moon caused higher crime rates. (Theory and data are reliable) - Generalization to Individuals from Observations about Groups Ex: Men are taller than women, so Bill is taller than Mary. - Unconscious Bias (định kiến vô thức) Ex: For many years, it was assumed that heart attacks were likely to occur in men than women. - Significance (sự đáng kể) versus Importance Ex: Men stay homes less than women