Exam 2 Review Baruch College: RES3200 1 Baruch College: RES3200 RES-3200 2 Intro ARM Commercial RE Legal Refi Cap rates Finance Underwriting Leverage FRM Buy vs Lease Risk Exam 1 Exam 2 Development Ownership Entity MBS (MPT, CMO) REIT Portfolio Exam 3 Baruch College: RES3200 Exam 2 3 How to study for Exam 2 Slides & re-do examples in slides re-do HWs practice Exam 2 Baruch College: RES3200 Review Roadmap 4 Finance review (NPV, IRR) Adjustable Rate Mortgages REFI decision Residential Mortgage Underwriting (3 C’s) Residential Valuation Buy vs Lease (Rent + TS - PITIM) Baruch College: RES3200 Finance Review Investment Definition 5 Investment: claim to a future (possibly risky) stream of cash flows 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 ≡ 𝐶𝐹𝑡 , 𝐶𝐹𝑡+1 , 𝐶𝐹𝑡+2 , … , 𝐶𝐹𝑡+𝑘 , … DCF: 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = σ𝑇𝑡=0 𝐶𝐹𝑡 𝐶𝐹𝑡+1 𝐶𝐹𝑡+2 𝑡 𝑡+1 𝑡+2 𝐶𝐹𝑡 1+𝑖 𝑡 ⋯ 𝐶𝐹𝑡+𝑘 ⋯ 𝑡+k 30yr Bond 𝐶𝐹0 = −300, 𝐶𝐹1 = ⋯ = 𝐶𝐹29 = 0, 𝐶𝐹30 = 1000 House: 𝐶𝐹0 = −100𝑘 (price), 𝐶𝐹𝑡 = 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 + 𝑇𝑆𝑡 − 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀𝑡 Mortgage: 𝐶𝐹0 = −100𝑘 (loan), 𝐶𝐹1 = 𝐶𝐹360 = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 (frm) Stock: 𝐶𝐹0 = −90 (price), 𝐶𝐹𝑡 = 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑡 (net of taxes) Baruch College: RES3200 Finance Review Internal Rate of Return aka Yield 6 Buy asset for $100 now (t=0), 𝐶𝐹0 = −$100 Asset pays $104 in one year (t=1), 𝐶𝐹1 = +$104 The Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment is a function of the discount rate i 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = −$100 + $104 1+𝑖 1 For every discount rate i, there is a different NPV(i) IRR: the discount rate that makes NPV equal zero 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = 𝐼𝑅𝑅 = 0 CF0=-100, CF1=+104, F1=1, IRR, CPT, 𝐼𝑅𝑅 = 4% Two equivalent ways of thinking about this investment: A: pay $100 now, get $104 in 1 year, the Yield on investment=IRR=4% B: save $100 now at 4%, in 1 year get back principal $100 plus interest 4% × $100 = $4 If the required return is 12% do you invest? What is the NPV? NPV, I=12, down, CPT, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −7.14 < 0 Invest when NPV ≥ 0 ↔ required return ≤ IRR Baruch College: RES3200 Finance Review Internal Rate of Return 7 Buy office building for 100k now (t=0) Spend 50k developing in the first year (t=1), 30k second year (t=2) Assume you can rent it out while developing 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡1 = 25𝑘, 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡2 = 30𝑘, 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡3 = 35𝑘 and sell for 200k in (t=3) Net cash-flows 𝐶𝐹0 = −100𝑘, 𝐶𝐹1 = −50𝑘 + 25𝑘 = −25𝑘, 𝐶𝐹2 = −30𝑘 + 30𝑘 = 0 𝐶𝐹3 = 35𝑘 + 200𝑘 = 235𝑘 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = −100𝑘 − 25𝑘 1+𝑖 1 + 0 1+𝑖 2 + 235𝑘 1+𝑖 3 (ON EXAM ONLY WRITE FINAL CASH FLOW!!!) Year 0 1 2 3 Rent $ 25,000.00 $ 30,000.00 $ 35,000.00 Sale Price $ 200,000.00 Purchase Price $ (100,000.00) Development Cost $ (50,000.00) $ (30,000.00) Net Cash flow $ (100,000.00) $ (25,000.00) $ - $ 235,000.00 IRR Baruch College: RES3200 25.12% Finance Review Internal Rate of Return 8 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = −100𝑘 − 25𝑘 1+𝑖 1 + 0 1+𝑖 2 + 235𝑘 1+𝑖 3 IRR: the discount rate that makes NPV equal zero 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = 𝐼𝑅𝑅 = 0 CF0=-100k, CF1=-25k,F1=1,CF2=0,F2=1,CF3=235k, IRR, CPT 𝐼𝑅𝑅 ≈ 25.12% If the required return is 12% do you invest? What is the NPV? NPV, I=12, down, CPT, 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = 44,946.93 > 0 Invest when NPV ≥ 0 ↔ required return ≤ IRR What if the required return is 27%? Baruch College: RES3200 Review Roadmap 9 Finance review (NPV, IRR) Adjustable Rate Mortgages REFI decision Residential Mortgage Underwriting (3 C’s) Residential Valuation Buy vs Lease (Rent + TS - PITIM) Baruch College: RES3200 Mortgage 10 Loan=$𝐿, Down payment=$𝐷𝑃, House price=𝑉0 𝐿 + 𝐷𝑃 = 𝑉0 Loan to Value ratio (LTV) at origination, 𝐿 𝐿𝑇𝑉0 = 𝑉0 Q: Ann gets a $200𝑘 loan, her 𝐿𝑇𝑉 = 75%, how much did her house cost? A: .75 = 200𝑘 , 𝑉 hence 𝑉 = Baruch College: RES3200 200𝑘 .75 = 266,666.67 𝐿 𝑉0 = 𝐿𝑇𝑉0 Mortgage 11 • The balance after k-monthly payments is 𝐵𝑘 . • The LTV after the 𝑘 𝑡ℎ payment: 𝐿𝑇𝑉𝑘 = 𝐵𝑘 𝑉𝑘 Initial balance 𝐵0 = 𝐿. equity: 𝐻𝐸𝑄𝑘 = 𝑉𝑘 − 𝐵𝑘 • The law of motion for ALL debt: 𝑖𝑡+1 𝐵𝑡+1 = 𝐵𝑡 + 𝐵 − 𝑃𝑀𝑇𝑡+1 𝑚 𝑡 • 30 year FA-FRM: 𝑖𝑡 = 𝑖 for all t, 𝑃𝑀𝑇𝑡 = 𝑃𝑀𝑇, FA: 𝐵360 = 0, 𝐻𝐸𝑄360 = 𝑉360 • 30 year IO-FRM, Balloon: 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = 𝑖 𝐵 , 𝑚 0 𝐵1 = 𝐵2 = ⋯ = 𝐵360 = 𝐵0 • 𝐵0 = 100𝑘, 𝑖/𝑚 = 6%/12, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = .5 ∗ 100𝑘 = 500, 𝐵360 = 100𝑘 • If FRM, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = 599.55, 𝐵360 = 0 • 30 year FA-ARM: 𝑖𝑡 resets periodically subject to caps and floors • 𝑃𝑀𝑇𝑡 diddo, same LOM Baruch College: RES3200 Adjustable Rate Mortgage 12 1/1: initial rate fixed for 1 year, resets every year Hybrid Arms: 3/1, 5/1, A/B: initial rate fixed for A years, resets every B years Index – The rate series that is used to determine the base interest rate on the loan. (LIBOR, treasury CMT) Margin – The spread that is added to the index. If 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 = 250𝑏𝑝, the mortgage resets 250 basis points or 2.50% above the index. Fully Indexed Rate (FIR)= Index + Margin Initial Rate – The rate on the mortgage before the 1st Reset date. Initial Rate Cap – The highest rate rise above the initial rate on the 1st rate reset date. Periodic Rate Cap – The highest rate rise between resets after the 1st rate reset. Life Rate Cap – The highest rate rise above the initial rate during the life of the loan. Baruch College: RES3200 Adjustable Rate Mortgages 1/1 ARM: Year 1 and Year 2 13 Compute PMT for 1st year 𝟐𝟓𝟎𝒌 = 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝟏+.𝟎𝟑/𝟏𝟐 𝟏 + ⋯+ 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝟏+.𝟎𝟑/𝟏𝟐 𝟑𝟔𝟎 Balance = Term = Rate = PMT = ARM Loan PV Term Initial Rate Index Reset Frequency Current Index Margin $250,000 360 3.00% $1,054.01 = = = = = = = $ 250,000 30 years 3.000% 1 year CMT Annual 1.00% 2.50% To find PMT for 2nd year – RECAST the loan STEP 1: compute balance in 12 months 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟒 𝟏𝟎𝟓𝟒 𝐵12 = STEP 2: Mortgage Rate for 2nd year, suppose index still = 1.00%, STEP 3: compute the PMT at the new rate 3.5% as if PMTs are made until maturity! 𝟏+.𝟎𝟑/𝟏𝟐 𝟐𝟒𝟒, 𝟕𝟖𝟎 𝟏 = + ⋯+ 𝟏+.𝟎𝟑/𝟏𝟐 𝟑𝟔𝟎−𝟏𝟐=𝟑𝟒𝟖 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝟏+.𝟎𝟑𝟓/𝟏𝟐 Year 2 PMT = $1,120.68 Baruch College: RES3200 = 𝟐𝟒𝟒, 𝟕𝟖𝟎. 𝟓𝟎, 𝟏 +⋯+ [N, 348], [I, 3/12], [PMT, -1054], [CPT, PV] 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝟏+.𝟎𝟑𝟓/𝟏𝟐 𝟑𝟒𝟖 𝑟 = 1.00 + 2.50 = 3.50% Balance = Term = Rate = PMT = $ 244,780 348 3.50% $1,120.68 Adjustable Rate Mortgages The Definition of APR For an ARM 14 The TRUE APR a lender must report to a borrower is based on the fully indexed rate of the ARM at origination and assumes no prepayment. True APR= just IRR assuming index stays the same. (reflects all points etc) ARM Loan PV Term Initial Rate Index Reset Frequency Current Index Margin Caps PMT $ 250,000 30 years 3.000% 1 year CMT Annual 1.00% 2.50% 5/2/5 $ 1,054.01 1st year 𝑃𝑚𝑡 = 1054, years 2-30 based on 3.5%, 1,120.68 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = +250𝑘 − • • = = = = = = = = = 1054 𝐼𝑅𝑅 1+ 12 1 +⋯+ 1054 𝐼𝑅𝑅 1+ 12 12 + 1,120.68 𝐼𝑅𝑅 1+ 12 13 + ⋯ + CF0=250k, CF1=-1054, F1=12, CF2=-1120.68, F2=348, CPT IRR*12 Annual IRR = 3.46% higher than the teaser rate (3%). • If there are fees subtract from the balance. Baruch College: RES3200 1,120.68 𝐼𝑅𝑅 1+ 12 360 =0 Review Roadmap 15 Finance review (NPV, IRR) Adjustable Rate Mortgages REFI decision Residential Mortgage Underwriting (3 C’s) Residential Valuation Buy vs Lease (Rent + TS - PITIM) Baruch College: RES3200 The Refinancing Decision Process The Economics: costs vs benefits 16 Suppose rates fall and you are thinking of refinancing. Costs: fees of getting a new mortgage (pain in the neck) Benefits: lower monthly payment at new lower rate (how long will you enjoy savings) What other investment opportunities should be considered. What is a variable cost and what is a sunk cost? Past points and fees paid are sunk costs. At the time a borrower is considering whether to refinance past costs are irrelevant, only current and future costs are relevant. Baruch College: RES3200 The Refinancing Decision Process Current Loan vs Refinance Option 17 Original Loan: 30yr 7.0% New Loan: 25yr 6.5% PV $250,000 360 7.00% $1663.26 PV PMT = = = = = = = = $235,328 300 6.50% $1588.95 UPB 𝑩𝟔𝟎 = $235,328 Origination Fee= 2.0 points $1,500 N (30 yr) I N (25 yr) I PMT Closing Costs = Time remaining = 5 years left Baruch College: RES3200 300 months Total Costs = $6,206 Save: 1663.26 -1588.96=74.30/mo The Refinancing Decision Process Current Loan vs Refinance Option 18 Determine the IRR that equates the 2 options (either keeping the current loan OR refinance into new one). If I paid $6,206 today for a 25 year annuity that paid me $74.30/month would I want to make that investment? What would I be earning? 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑖 = −6,206 + Solve for I which is the IRR. IRR =13.91% 74.30 𝑖 1+ 12 1 + ⋯+ N PV PMT I 74.30 𝑖 1+ 12 = = = = 300 300 (6,206.00) 74.30 ?? Is that a good return? Would you buy this asset? If a borrower has a required return 𝑟 < 𝐼𝑅𝑅 = 13.91% he should refinance! Baruch College: RES3200 = 13.91% The Refinancing Decision Process Current Loan vs Refinance Option 19 What if the borrower was only going to be in the house for another 10 years? Loan balance of the old loan at t=180 = 185,047 [N, 180], [I, 7/12], [PMT, -1663.26], [CPT, PV] 185,047.58 Loan balance of new loan at t=120 = 182,405 [N, 300-120=180], [I, 6.5/12], [PMT, -1588.95], [CPT, PV] 182,405.76 Difference (advantage of a lower loan balance) 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −6,206 + 74.30 𝑖 1+12 1 + ⋯+ = 74.30 𝑖 1+12 120 + 2,643 2643 𝑖 120 1+12 N=120, PV=-6206, PMT=74.30, FV=2643, CPT I*12 = 11.23% Since the mortgage is not kept for the full 25 years the savings of $74.30/month is not as valuable. The IRR falls from 13.91% to 11.23% If your required return was 𝑟 = 12%, would you still refi? Cashout refi/ HEL/ HELOC Baruch College: RES3200 Review Roadmap 20 Finance review (NPV, IRR) Adjustable Rate Mortgages REFI decision Residential Mortgage Underwriting (3 C’s) Residential Valuation Buy vs Lease (Rent + TS - PITIM) Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting 3 Cs of Underwriting 21 CREDIT: credit report (Transunion, Experian, Equifax) FICO score 300-850 Current and past debts, tax liens, bankruptcies, deficiencies Capacity: borrower’s capacity to make loan payments Employment history, income statements, bank asset statements DTI front end and back-end, (PITI: Principal+Interest+Taxes+Insurance) Reserve Requirement: e.g. enough assets in bank to pay mortgage for 5 months Collateral: the value of the collateral in case of default Appraisal report LTV requirement Conforming loans: if LTV>80% need Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) Loans with higher LTVs are riskier, often have higher interest rates Lenders use the 3 Cs to determine if you will be approved for a loan and under what terms (rate, points etc) Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Credit: FICO Score 22 What factors influence the FICO score? 35% - Payment history 30% - Credit Utilization – credit usage/credit availability ratio The longer you have been a borrower the better. 10% - Types of credit used Closing an unused credit card actually hurts. 15% - Length of credit history On time payments improve score. The more types of borrowing the better/ unless high cost borrowing. 10% - Recent Credit searches The more often you apply the lower the score temporarily. Income/employment doesn’t affect FICO score. Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Capacity: Income Analysis 23 monthly PITI Front End DTI = monthly pretax Income monthly PITI + 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 Back End DTI = monthly pretax Income • E.g. 28%/36% (conventional) • Front End DTI = monthly PITI monthly pretax income 𝑃𝑀𝑇+𝑇+𝐼 = monthly pretax income ≤ .28 • monthly PITI = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 + 𝑇 + 𝐼 ≤ .28 × monthly pretax income • 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ .28 × monthly pretax income − T − I • Back End DTI = monthly PITI+𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 monthly pretax income ≤ .36 • monthly PITI + 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 ≤ .36 × monthly pretax income • 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ .36 × monthly pretax income − T − I − other debt • Both the front end and back end must be satisfied! Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Capacity 24 Alice earns $120k/year or 10k/month Property taxes $6k/year, $500/month. Insurance $2400/yr, $200/mo. Monthly T+I=$700 Q1: if front end DTI=28%, what is the most she can spend on monthly PITI? A1: .28 × $10𝑘 = $2,800 so 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 ≤ $2,800 Q2: if back end DTI=28%, what is the biggest monthly mortgage payment Alice can make? A2: 𝑃 + 𝐼 + 𝑇 + 𝐼 = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 + $700 ≤ $2,800 so 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100 Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Capacity 25 Alice earns $120k/year or 10k/month Property taxes $6k/year, $500/month. Insurance $2400/yr, $200/mo. Front End 28%, 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 ≤ $2,800, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100 Q1: if back end DTI=36%, what is the most she can spend on monthly PITI and other debt? A1: .36 × $10𝑘 = $3,600 so 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 + 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 ≤ $3,600 𝑃𝑀𝑇 + 𝑇 + 𝐼 + 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 ≤ $3,600 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 Q2: if front end DTI=36%, what is the biggest monthly mortgage payment Alice can make? If other debt =$200, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $200 = $2,700 If other debt =$800, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $800 = $2,100 If other debt =$1k, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $1𝑘 = $1,900 Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Capacity 26 Alice earns $10k/month Property taxes + Insurance = $700/mo. Front End 28%, 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 ≤ $2,800, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100 Back End 36%,𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 + 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 ≤ $3,600, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 If other debt =$200, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $200 = $2,700 If other debt =$800, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $800 = $2,100 If other debt =$1k, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $1𝑘 = $1,900 BOTH the Front End and Back End must be satisfied! If other debt =$200, Front End 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100, Back End 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,700 Maximum monthly mortgage 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = 𝑀𝑖𝑛 $2100, $2700 = $2100 (FE binds) If other debt =$800, Front End 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100, Back End 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100 Maximum monthly mortgage 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = 𝑀𝑖𝑛 $2100, $2100 = $2100 (both bind) If other debt =$1k, Front End 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100, Back End 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $1,900 Maximum monthly mortgage 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = 𝑀𝑖𝑛 $2100, $1900 = $1900 (BE binds) Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Capacity 27 Alice earns $10k/month. Property taxes + Insurance = $700/mo. Front End 28%, 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 ≤ $2,800, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,100 Back End 36%,𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼 + 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 ≤ $3,600, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 If other debt =$200, 𝑃𝑀𝑇 ≤ $2,900 − $200 = $2,700 Maximum monthly mortgage 𝑃𝑀𝑇 = 𝑀𝑖𝑛 $2100, $2700 = $2100 (FE binds) Q: w/ 30yr FA-FRM at 5%, what is the biggest loan Alice can get? 𝑃𝑉 = 2100 .05 1+ 12 1 + ⋯+ 2100 .05 360 1+ 12 , N,360, I,5/12, PMT,-2100, CPT, PV=391,191.40 Note: this is the biggest loan Alice can get exclusively based on income requirements (DTI). Ignoring FICO and LTV. Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Collateral 28 Alice wants to buy a property that costs $450k and she can afford up to a 100k down payment. If the bank’s maximum LTV requirement is 80%, will Alice be approved? . 8 ∗ 450𝑘 = 360𝑘, she needs a 90k down payment, she has 100k so yes! Suppose the appraiser says the property is only worth 300k, what is the biggest loan she will get if the maximum LTV is 80%? 300𝑘 ∗ .8 = 240𝑘, combined with Alice’s down payment she can afford to spend 240𝑘 + 100𝑘 = 340𝑘 ≪ 450𝑘 asking price. NO! The appraiser’s low appraisal reduces Alice’s loan size by so much that she can’t afford the property. Baruch College: RES3200 Residential Loan Underwriting Mortgage Insurance 29 Example: 𝐻𝑃0 = $100𝑘, 𝐵0 = $95𝑘, 𝐿𝑇𝑉0 = 95% Suppose the bank requires Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) for the portion of the loan above 80% LTV (portion above $80k) The borrower must insure: $95𝑘 − $80𝑘 = $15𝑘 The borrower pays the insurer a premium, the insurer will pay the lender up to $15k if there is a deficiency. Suppose it’s an IO loan, after 5 years 𝐻𝑃60 = $83𝑘, 𝐵60 = $95𝑘 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦60 = 𝐵60 − 𝐻𝑃60 = $95𝑘 − $83𝑘 = $12𝑘 The insurer pays the bank $12k, since 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦60 < $15𝑘 The bank doesn’t suffer a loss if HP falls up to 20%. (Insurer up to 5%) If 𝐻𝑃60 = $78𝑘, 𝐵60 = $95𝑘 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦60 = 𝐵60 − 𝐻𝑃60 = $95𝑘 − $78𝑘 = $17𝑘 The insurer pays the bank $15k, the bank’s loss =$2k With an IO and PMI, HP must fall at least 20% before the bank suffers a loss Baruch College: RES3200 Review Roadmap 30 Finance review (NPV, IRR) Adjustable Rate Mortgages REFI decision Residential Mortgage Underwriting (3 C’s) Residential Valuation Buy vs Lease (Rent + TS - PITIM) Baruch College: RES3200 Valuation Real Estate Appraisal & Tax Shields 31 These apply to residential & commercial valuation. 1) Sales Comparison Approach (Comparables) • What does a similar property sell for? uses recent sales data • 𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 = 𝑃𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 + 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 − 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑠𝑒 2) Replacement Cost (what does it cost to replace?) • Land Value + Hard Costs + Soft Costs = Replacement Cost 3) Discounted Cash Flow Approach (Income) 𝑅1 +𝑇𝑆1−𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀1 1+𝑖 1 + 𝑃5 −𝐵5 −𝐸𝑥𝑝5 1+𝑖 5 𝑁𝑃𝑉 = − 𝐷𝑃0 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝0 + TS=Tax Shield PITIM= Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance + Maintenance + ⋯+ 𝑅5 +𝑇𝑆5 −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀5 1+𝑖 5 Tax shield depends on your marginal income tax rate. Property taxes and mortgage interest are income tax deductible. 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑆ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 = 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 × 𝐷𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 Baruch College: RES3200 BUY VS LEASE Tenure Choice 32 • 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑤𝑛 = − 𝐷𝑃0 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝0 + • 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 0 + • −𝑅1 1+𝑖 1 + ⋯+ 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑤𝑛−𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 = − 𝐷𝑃0 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝0 + 𝑇𝑆1 −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀1 1+𝑖 1 + ⋯+ 𝑇𝑆𝑇 −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 + 𝑃𝑇 −𝐵𝑇 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 −𝑅𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 𝑅1 +𝑇𝑆1 −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀1 1+𝑖 1 + ⋯+ 𝑅𝑇 +𝑇𝑆𝑇 −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 + 𝑃𝑇 −𝐵𝑇 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 • Just like stocks there are two sources of income: • Dividend Income= periodic income (unlike stocks can be negative) • Capital Gains Income: owner has a residual claim on CF, 𝑃𝑇 − 𝐵𝑇 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 , the lender has a senior claim. The owner is an equity investor. Baruch College: RES3200 BUY VS LEASE Tenure Choice: Wealth Accumulation 33 Lucy is moving to Tulsa. She can own or rent. She can buy for: 𝑃0 = $126,247.44 100% LTV, FA-FRM, 30 years, annual payments, r=5%, [30,N], [5,I], [126247.44, PV], CPT, PMT=$8,212.58 𝑇 + 𝐼 + 𝑀 = 3% ∗ 𝑃0 = 3787.42 (assume no tax shield) 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑂𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝 = 𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀 = 8,212.58+3,787.42=$12,000 She can rent the same house for: 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡 = $12,000 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑈= $126,247.44 = = 10.52, $12,000 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡 $12,000 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = $126,247.44 = 9.5% By assumption, Lucy makes no down payment to buy. It costs her $12k/year to live in the same house whether she owns or rents. Q: is Lucy better off owning or renting? Baruch College: RES3200 BUY VS LEASE Tenure Choice 34 Lucy is moving to Tulsa. She can own or rent. own: 𝑃0 = $126,247.44, PITIM = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 + 𝑇𝐼𝑀 = $12𝑘 Rent: 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡 = $12𝑘 (assume rent is constant) 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑤𝑛 = 0 + −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀 1+𝑖 1 𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 −𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡1 1+𝑖 1 𝑁𝑃𝑉 =0+ 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑤𝑛−𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 =0+ +⋯+ −𝑃𝐼𝑇𝐼𝑀 1+𝑖 𝑇 +⋯+ −𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 0 1+𝑖 1 +⋯+ + 𝑃𝑇 −𝐵𝑇 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 0 1+𝑖 𝑇 + 𝑃𝑇 −𝐵𝑇 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 1+𝑖 𝑇 The only difference between owning and renting is that Lucy will walk away with home equity after expenses 𝑃𝑇 − 𝐵𝑇 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 Baruch College: RES3200 BUY VS LEASE Tenure Choice 35 Lucy is moving to Tulsa. She can own or rent. own: 𝑃0 = $126,247.44, PITIM = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 + 𝑇𝐼𝑀 = $12𝑘 Rent: 𝑅𝑒𝑛𝑡 = $12𝑘 (assume rent is constant) home equity after expenses: 𝑃𝑇 − 𝐵𝑇 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 Suppose house prices grow 𝑔 = 4.5% (Demers-Eisfeldt) Suppose selling expenses =8% of 𝑃𝑇 : 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑇 = .08 × 𝑃𝑇 (Trulia) 𝑇 = 30, 𝐵30 = 0, 𝑃30 = 472,836.83, 𝑃30 − 𝐵30 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝30 = 435,009.88 Lucy lived in the same house for 30 years but left w/ an extra $435k from owning rather than renting. 𝑇 = 1, 𝐵1 = 124,347.28, 𝑃1 = 131,928.57, [N, 29], [I, 5], [PMT, -8212.58], [CPT, PV] 𝐸𝑥𝑝1 = .08 ∗ 131,928.57 = 10,554.29, 𝑃1 − 𝐵1 − 𝐸𝑥𝑝1 = −2972.98 Q: if rent grew over this time period, would Lucy be better off owning? Piketty-Rognlie: housing explains a lot of wealth inequality Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam – multiple choice 36 1. What is a typical LTV constraint on mortgages? (A) 10% (B) 20% (C) 40% (D) 80% 2. Which of the following factors will affect your FICO credit score? (A) gender (B) salary (C) recent credit searches (D) race 3. All of the following are reasons a borrower may want to refinance EXCEPT? (A) lenders demand lower debt-to-income (payment-to-income) ratios (B) the borrowing rate declines (C) the borrower’s credit score rises (D) the property value rises Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam – multiple choice 37 1. What is a typical LTV constraint on mortgages? (A) 10% (B) 20% (C) 40% (D) 80% 2. Which of the following factors will affect your FICO credit score? (A) gender (B) salary (C) recent credit searches (D) race 3. All of the following are reasons a borrower may want to refinance EXCEPT? (A) lenders demand lower debt-to-income (payment-to-income) ratios (B) the borrowing rate declines (C) the borrower’s credit score rises (D) the property value rises Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 38 4. A bank makes a 30 year Fully Amortizing FRM for $1,000,000 at an annual interest rate of 4.25% compounded monthly, with monthly payments. What is the market value of this loan after 7 years of payments if the annual interest rate for this loan is 7% compounded monthly? Scientific calculator Payment = 1,000,000*.0425/12/(1-1/(1+.0425/12)^360) = 4,919.40 Value = 4,919.40/.07*12*(1-1/(1+.07/12)^(23*12)) = 673,964.99 Financial calculator Payment: N = 360, I = 4.25/12, PV = - 1,000,000, FV = 0, CPT PMT Value: N = 23*12, I = 7/12, PMT = 4919.40, FV = 0, CPT PV (change sign) Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 39 5. A bank makes a 30 year Fully Amortizing FRM for $1,000,000 at an annual interest rate of 4.25% compounded monthly, with monthly payments. Suppose inflation is 1% per year, compounded monthly. What is the real value of the 60th payment? 4,919.40/(1+.01/12)^60 = 4,679.57 Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 40 6. A 30 year 1/1 ARM has an initial rate of 1.5%. In the future the rate will reset to 225 basis points above the LIBOR index with no rate caps or floors. In 1 year, at the time of the first reset, the LIBOR is 6.75%. What interest rate will be used to compute payments at the first reset? 2.25%+6.75% = 9.00% Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 41 7. Ann gets a 30 year 1/1 Fully Amortizing ARM for $1,000,000, with monthly payments and monthly compounding. The initial rate is 4%. In the future, the rate will reset to 250 basis points above the LIBOR. There are no rate caps or floors. Suppose at the first reset, the LIBOR was 1%. What is the monthly mortgage payment for the second year? Scientific calculator 1,000,000*(1-1/(1+.04/12)^348)/(1-1/(1+.04/12)^360)*.035/12/(1-1/(1+.035/12)^348)) = 4,497.68 Financial calculator Payment for 1st year: N = 360, I = 4/12, PV = - 1,000,000, FV = 0, CPT PMT Balance after 1st year: N = 348, I = 4/12, PMT = 4774.15, FV = 0, CPT PV Payment for 2nd year: N = 348, I = 3.5/12, PV = - 982,389.64, FV = 0, CPT PMT Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 42 8. Ann got a 30 year Fully Amortizing FRM for $1,000,000 at an annual interest rate of 7% compounded monthly, with monthly payments. After 5 years of payments, Ann can refinance the balance into a 25 year Fully Amortizing FRM at an annual interest rate of 5.25% compounded monthly, with monthly payments. If Ann refinances, what will be her monthly savings on her mortgage payment? Payment = 1,000,000*.07/12/(1-1/(1+.07/12)^360) = 6,653.02 Balance = 6,653.02/.07*12*(1-1/(1+.07/12)^300) = 941,315.20 New payment = 941,315.20*.0525/12/(1-1/(1+.0525/12)^300) = 5,640.81 6,653.02 – 5,640.81 = 1,012.21 Financial calculator Payment: N = 360, I = 7/12, PV = - 1,000,000, FV = 0, CPT PMT Balance 5 years: N = 300, I = 7/12, PMT = 6653.02, FV = 0, CPT PV New payment: N = 300, I = 5.25/12, PV = - 941,315.20, FV = 0, CPT PMT 6653.02 - 5640.81 = 1,012.21 Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 43 9. Ann got a 30 year Fully Amortizing FRM for $1,000,000 at an annual interest rate of 7% compounded monthly, with monthly payments. After 5 years of payments, Ann can refinance the balance into a 25 year Fully Amortizing FRM at an annual interest rate of 6% compounded monthly, with monthly payments. Refinancing will cost Ann 1 point and $1,500 in closing costs. If Ann refinances into this loan after 5 years, what will be her total cost of refinancing (i.e. the cost paid immediately at the moment of refinancing)? 941,315.20*.01+1,500 = 10,913.16 Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 44 10. Jim has an annual income of $240,000. Jim is looking to buy a house with monthly property taxes of $300 and monthly homeowner’s insurance of $200. Apple bank has a maximum front end PTI limit of 28%. Considering only the front end PTI limit, what is the most they will allow Jim to spend on a monthly mortgage payment? (A) 5,100 (B) 5,558.33 (C) 5,600 240,000*.28/12-300-200 = 5,100 Baruch College: RES3200 (D) 66,700 Sample Exam 45 11. Jim has an annual income of $240,000. Jim is looking to buy a house with monthly property taxes of $300 and monthly homeowner’s insurance of $200. Jim has $1,500 in monthly student loan payments and an average monthly credit card bill of $1,000. Apple bank has a maximum front end PTI limit of 28% and a maximum back end PTI limit of 36%. Considering both the front end PTI limit and the back end PTI limit, what is the most they will allow Jim to spend on a monthly mortgage payment? min(5,100.00, 240,000*.36/12-300-200-1,500-1,000) = 4,200 240,000*.36/12-300-200-1,500-1,000=4,200 min(5100; 4200) = 4,200 Another example: in case your answer to Q10 was 3100 min(3,100.00, 240,000*.36/12-300-200-1,500-1,000) = 4,200 min(3100, 4200)=3,100 Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 46 12. Jim has an annual income of $240,000. Jim is looking to buy a house with monthly property taxes of $300 and monthly homeowner’s insurance of $200. Jim has $1,500 in monthly student loan payments and an average monthly credit card bill of $1,000. Apple bank has a maximum front end PTI limit of 25% and a maximum back end PTI limit of 35%. Jim will make the biggest mortgage payment he can that satisfies both the front end PTI limit and the back end PTI limit. Jim will get a fully amortizing 30 year FRM at an annual rate of 3.40%, with monthly payments, compounded monthly. What is the biggest mortgage loan Jim can get? Payment = = min(240,000*.25/12-300-200, 240,000*.35/12-300-200-1,000-1,500) = 4,000 4,000/.034*12*(1-1/(1+.034/12)^360) = 901,954.74 Financial Calculator solution for loan size Payment: N = 360, I = 3.4/12, PMT = 4000, FV = 0, CPT PV (change sign) Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 47 13. Sam bought a house that costs $500,000. Sam got a 92% LTV loan. The lender demanded that Sam buy private mortgage insurance to insure the portion of the loan over 80% LTV. Suppose 5 years later, Sam’s mortgage balance is $450,000. However, Sam defaults and his house sells for $400,000 in a foreclosure auction. How much will the mortgage insurance company pay Sam’s lender? deficiency = 450,000 – 400,000 = 50,000 private insurance coverage = 0.92 * 500,000 - 0.8 * 500,000 = 60,000 Lender needs 50,000 and has coverage up to 60,000 → lender gets 50,000 Baruch College: RES3200 Sample Exam 48 14. Ann’s average income tax rate is 30%, and her marginal income tax rate is 35%. Her property tax bill for 2015 was $4,000 and her total interest payment on her mortgage was $4,500. Based on this information, what is Ann’s total income tax shield (i.e. how much is Ann saving on her income taxes, in dollars)? .35*(4,000+4,500) = 2,975 Baruch College: RES3200 15-16. Refinance 49 15. Ann got a 30 year FRM with annual payments equal to $24,000. After 2 years of payments Ann will refinance the balance into a 28-year FRM with annual payments equal to $20,000. Refinancing will cost Ann $5,500. Ann will prepay the new loan 3 years after refinancing. She will save $2,500 on her loan balance when she prepays. Using all the information given, find the NPV for Ann's refinancing decision if her annual discount rate is 20%. Solution Cost of REFI = 5,500.00 PMT savings = 24,000-20,000=4,000 (for 3 years) Balance saving: 2,500 Final year total CF= 4,000 + 2,500 = 6,500 𝑵𝑷𝑽 𝒊 = −𝟓, 𝟓𝟎𝟎 + Plug in i = 20% to get NPV = 4,372.69 Baruch College: RES3200 𝟒,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏+𝒊 𝟏 + 𝟒,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟏+𝒊 𝟐 + 𝟔,𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝟏+𝒊 𝟑 50 16. Find the IRR of the refinancing decision in Q15. Hint: this question is designed to be done with financial calculator, not with a regular calculator. Solution: CF0 = -5500, CF1 = 4000, CF2 = 4000, CF3 = 6500, CPT IRR Answer: 62.36% Baruch College: RES3200 17-19. Buy vs Lease 51 17. Lucy bought a house that costs $100,000. She financed it with an 80% LTV mortgage. The mortgage is a 30 year fully amortizing FRM with annual compounding and annual payments. Lucy’s annual cost of ownership net of tax savings is exactly equal to the annual rent she would have paid to live in the same house. Lucy will sell the house 30 years after purchase. Suppose the house price grows 4.5% annually (compounded annually). Buying costs are 5% of the purchase price of the house. Selling costs are 8% of the selling price of the house. Using all the information given, find the NPV for Lucy's buy vs lease decision if her annual discount rate is 10%. Solution Sale price: 100,000 * 1.045^30= 374,531.81 Lucy’s sale CF= 374,531.81*.92= 344,569.27 CF0= -.20*100,000 – .05*100,000= -25,000 CF1 = 0, (t=1-29) CF30=344,569.27 𝑵𝑷𝑽 𝒊 = −𝟐𝟓, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 + Plug in i = 10% to get NPV = -5,253.23 Baruch College: RES3200 𝟑𝟒𝟒,𝟓𝟔𝟗.𝟐𝟕 𝟏+𝒊 𝟑𝟎 17-19. Buy vs Lease 52 18. Find the IRR of the buying decision in Q17. Solve: −𝟐𝟓, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 + 19. Ann’s forecast for the growth rate of her house price was incorrect and she actually got IRR = 2% in Q18. What was the actual growth rate of Ann’s house price? Write your answer in percent but without the “%” sign. Hint: this question is designed to be done with a regular calculator, not with a financial calculator. Solve: −𝟐𝟓, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 + 𝟑𝟒𝟒,𝟓𝟔𝟗.𝟐𝟕 𝟏+𝑰𝑹𝑹 𝟑𝟎 = 𝟎 ⇒ 𝑰𝑹𝑹 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎∗ 𝟏+𝐱 𝟑𝟎 ∗𝟎.𝟗𝟐 𝟏+𝟎.𝟎𝟐 𝟑𝟎 𝟑𝟒𝟒,𝟓𝟔𝟗.𝟐𝟕 𝟏/𝟑𝟎 𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎 − 𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟏𝟒 = 𝟗. 𝟏𝟒% =𝟎 𝟏 + 𝐱 𝟑𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗𝟐𝟐𝟏𝟖 𝟏 + 𝐱 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗𝟐𝟐𝟏𝟖𝟏/𝟑𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟕𝟔𝟔𝟒𝟗 𝐱 = −𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟒 = −𝟐. 𝟑𝟒% The actual exam will not be the same as above, but roughly similar. Hint: check out HWs 4-5 and lecture slides 7-10! Baruch College: RES3200 The Refinancing Decision Process Current Loan vs Refinance Option: Prepay+ Longer term 53 You have lived in your home for 5 years and still have the original mortgage. A lender has approached you with an offer to refinance. You plan to live in the house another 10 years. What should you do? Current Loan $250,000 30 years 7.00% $1,663.26 0 0 Baruch College: RES3200 Refinance Option Loan Amount $ ?? Term 30 years Rate 6.00% Payment $ ?? Bank Fees 2 points Other Closing Costs $1,500 The Refinancing Decision Process Current Loan vs Refinance Option: Prepay+ Longer term 54 You have lived in your home for 5 years and still have the original mortgage. A lender has approached you with an offer to refinance. You plan to live in the house another 10 years. What should you do? Current Loan $250,000 30 years 7.00% $1,663.26 Not relevant Not relevant Loan Amount Term Rate Payment Bank Fees Other Closing Costs Refinance Option $ ?? 30 years 6.00% $ ?? 2 points $1,500 Balance after 5 years = 1,663.26/.07*12*(1-1/(1+.07/12)^300)=235,329.50 Cost of refinancing = 1,500+.02* 235,329.50= 6,206.59 New payment = 235,329.50*.06/12/(1-1/(1+.06/12)^360)=1,410.92 Balance in 10 years = 1,410.92/.06*12*(1-1/(1+.06/12)^240)=196,937.30 if not refinance, balance in 10 years = 1,663.26/.07*12*(1-1/(1+.07/12)^(15*12))= 185,047.58 Time, months 0 1-59 A CF if not refi 250000 -1663.26 B CF if refi 250000 -1663.26 Baruch College: RES3200 B-A 60 -1663.26 -1663.26-6206.59 -6206.59 61-179 180 -1663.26 -1663.26-185047.58 -1410.92 -1410.92-196937.30 252.34 -11637.38 The Refinancing Decision Process Current Loan vs Refinance Option: Prepay+ Longer term 55 You have lived in your home for 5 years and still have the original mortgage. A lender has approached you with an offer to refinance. You plan to live in the house another 10 years. What should you do? Current Loan $250,000 30 years 7.00% $1,663.26 Not relevant Not relevant Loan Amount Term Rate Payment Bank Fees Other Closing Costs Refinance Option $ ?? 30 years 6.00% $ ?? 2 points $1,500 Balance after 5 years = 1,663.26/.07*12*(1-1/(1+.07/12)^300)=235,329.50 Cost of refinancing = 1,500+.02* 235,329.50= 6,206.59 New payment = 235,329.50*.06/12/(1-1/(1+.06/12)^360)=1,410.92 Balance in 10 years = 1,410.92/.06*12*(1-1/(1+.06/12)^240)=196,937.30 if not refinance, balance in 10 years = 1,663.26/.07*12*(1-1/(1+.07/12)^(15*12))= 185,047.58 Time, months 0 1-59 A CF if not refi 250000 -1663.26 BBaruch CF if College: refi 250000 -1663.26 RES3200 B-A 60 -1663.26 -7869.85 -6206.59 61-179 180 -1663.26 -186710.84 -1410.92 -198348.22 252.34 -11637.38 IRR mnth 0.583% 0.463% -1.76; 3.95 IRR year 7.00% 5.56% -21.1% or 47.4%? 56 Baruch College: RES3200 NPV(r) plot 57 Baruch College: RES3200