Impact on growth and some sectors of the economy
So far, there have been a number of domestic and foreign research organizations forecasting the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy. However, these forecasts are all
based on the epidemic situation from the beginning of March onwards, when Europe and the US
have not been affected as badly as now.
Bloomberg forecasts that Vietnam's growth will decrease by 0.4 % (data up to February), ADB thinks
that growth will decrease by 0.5 - 1% and the worst case scenario may decrease by 1.5% (Report on
10 May). /03). The Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasts that growth may decrease from
0.67 to 0.96%, inflation in the range of 3.96% - 4.86%, exports down 21%, imports down 16%,
agriculture sector down 0.11%; industry decreased by 0.24%; the service sector decreased by 0.32%
(Reported on February 4 and 10). The State Bank of Vietnam forecasts inflation in Vietnam to vary
between 4.5% /- 0.4% (Report dated March 12). The research team made the Publication Review
ten
The annual Vietnam Economic Review 2019 of the National Economics University forecasts that
growth will decrease from 0.6 to 0.8% (data up to March 7). In the latest report (March 31, 2020),
the World Bank forecast that Vietnam's economy in 2020 will be about 1.5% to 4.9% depending on
the scenario. However, growth will rebound strongly in 2021.
We believe that with the shift of the epidemic center from China to Europe and the US and
spreading to other regions, the impact on the Vietnamese economy will be stronger and the impact
mechanism will change. from the fault side of input supply to mainly the demand side.
Based on the scenarios of the number of infections and isolation in Vietnam, we proceed to build a
number of quantitative models in order to preliminary forecast the impact of the pandemic on the
Vietnamese economy in the coming period. next. The prediction results of these models show that:
(i) Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter is about 2.0 % yoy and even a recession if a bad
scenario occurs. It is expected to recover from the third quarter of 2020.
(ii) Vnindex dropped about 28% and recovered immediately after the epidemic was controlled with
approximately 20%.
(iii) Exports decreased by about 25% in Q2 and recovered to a decrease of 15% in the following
quarters of 2020.
In addition, the research team also forecast the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on some sectors of
the economy with the most favorable scenario (Scenario 1 - the epidemic lasts until the end of April
2020) and the other scenario. worst (Scenario 3 - epidemic lasts until the end of June 2020).
ConcludeImpact on growth and some sectors of the economy
So far, there have been a number of domestic and foreign research organizations forecasting the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy. However, these forecasts are all
based on the epidemic situation from the beginning of March onwards, when Europe and the US
have not been affected as badly as now.
Bloomberg forecasts that Vietnam's growth will decrease by 0.4 % (data up to February), ADB thinks
that growth will decrease by 0.5 - 1% and the worst case scenario may decrease by 1.5% (Report on
10 May). /03). The Ministry of Planning and Investment forecasts that growth may decrease from
0.67 to 0.96%, inflation in the range of 3.96% - 4.86%, exports down 21%, imports down 16%,
agriculture sector down 0.11%; industry decreased by 0.24%; the service sector decreased by 0.32%
(Reported on February 4 and 10). The State Bank of Vietnam forecasts inflation in Vietnam to vary
between 4.5% /- 0.4% (Report dated March 12). The research team made the Publication Review
ten
The annual Vietnam Economic Review 2019 of the National Economics University forecasts that
growth will decrease from 0.6 to 0.8% (data up to March 7). In the latest report (March 31, 2020),
the World Bank forecast that Vietnam's economy in 2020 will be about 1.5% to 4.9% depending on
the scenario. However, growth will rebound strongly in 2021.
We believe that with the shift of the epidemic center from China to Europe and the US and
spreading to other regions, the impact on the Vietnamese economy will be stronger and the impact
mechanism will change. from the fault side of input supply to mainly the demand side.
Based on the scenarios of the number of infections and isolation in Vietnam, we proceed to build a
number of quantitative models in order to preliminary forecast the impact of the pandemic on the
Vietnamese economy in the coming period. next. The prediction results of these models show that:
(i) Vietnam's GDP growth in the second quarter is about 2.0 % yoy and even a recession if a bad
scenario occurs. It is expected to recover from the third quarter of 2020.
(ii) Vnindex dropped about 28% and recovered immediately after the epidemic was controlled with
approximately 20%.
(iii) Exports decreased by about 25% in Q2 and recovered to a decrease of 15% in the following
quarters of 2020.
In addition, the research team also forecast the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on some sectors of
the economy with the most favorable scenario (Scenario 1 - the epidemic lasts until the end of April
2020) and the other scenario. worst (Scenario 3 - epidemic lasts until the end of June 2020).
Conclude the results are presented in Table 2.
Table 2. Forecast of impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on some sectors
Field
1
Trade in goods
Import and Export
Domestic trade
2
Trade in Services
Transportation and
logistics services
Health services
Education Services
3
Hotel Tourist
4
Agriculture
The script lasts until the end
of April 2020
Decline 20-30%
Decline 5-8%
Decline 15%, of which
traditional commerce
decreased by 20%, ecommerce increased by 10%
Strong transformation,
increase in medical and
essential services by over
25%, decrease in ancillary
services by 20-35%
Decline 20%
25% increase, localities still
have enough resources to
meet demand
The script lasts until
the end of June 2020
30% to 40% decrease
25% decrease
30% decrease
Increase medical and
essential services by
over 25-40%, reduce
ancillary services by
20-40%
20-30% decrease
Increase by 25-60%,
lack of locality in
epidemic areas and
must be maneuvered
between regions and
regions
35% decline, switch to online
Declining 35-65%,
learning.
restructuring the
industry's labor force.
15-20% decrease in domestic 30-40% decrease in
and international visitors, 20% domestic and
decrease in revenue, 15-20%
international visitors,
40% decrease in
revenue and 30-40%
Decline from 2.8-27.4% by
Lower average high
item
5
Real Estate
Declining rental and resort
segment
Supply decline due to
lack of raw materials,
finance...