ECOS3997: Stream 2 Conflict and Economic Development Week 7 - Final Report DR. A S H A N I A M A RA S I N GHE S CH O O L O F E CO N O M ICS U N I V E RS ITY O F S Y DN E Y The plan for today Today we will be discussing the final report for ECOS3997. ➢General information on the report ➢What should your report be about? ➢What is expected of you? ➢Structure of the report ➢Marking rubric General information ➢Your main assignment is to write a "final report". ➢Due on 14 Oct 2022, 23:59 (week 10). ➢Accounts for 60% of your final mark. ➢Word count: 3000 (excluding references) What should your report be about? For a conflict of your choice, write a detailed report analyzing its economic causes and consequences. Based on your analysis, provide at least one policy recommendation that can be used to mitigate the effects of the conflict on economic development. Explain the reasoning behind your recommendation. ➢ You will be required to substantiate your report using data (for example, number of conflict deaths, GDP, population, poverty, unemployment rate, imports/exports, foreign direct investments, military expenditure, mortality, literacy etc.) ➢ You will need to include at least 1 “original” visualization AND at least 1 “original” quantification on the cost of conflict in your report. What is expected of you? ➢The idea of this exercise is to show your ability to write a policy brief for key policymakers in the country of interest. ➢You should demonstrate your understanding of ▪ The origin and state of the conflict (commencement and evolution of the conflict) ▪ The consequences of the conflict – who, what, where the impacts were observed ➢ You should propose a policy recommendation that can be used to mitigate the effects of this conflict on short term/ long-term economic development. ➢ You should present data and evidence from the literature to support your proposal. ➢ You should clearly discuss the limitations of your analysis. Report structure 1. Title page 2. Executive summary 3. Introduction 4. Analysis 5. Policy proposal 6. Discussion and recommendation 7. Conclusion 8. References 1. Title Page ➢Standard title page for Uni assignments ➢Include your details clearly ➢Include course # and Stream # ➢Include title of your report 2. Executive summary ➢The report should start with a 1-page summary of your report. ➢This gives the reader an idea of what to expect in the rest of the report. ➢Summarise clearly and concisely: ▪ The context (ie, what is the conflict) ▪ Economic causes and consequences ▪ Policy recommendation, justification and limitations ➢A good executive summary will give the reader a clean and clear idea of the conflict, the policy proposal and why it matters. ➢If the executive summary does not clearly represent what you do in the report --> not a good executive report. ➢The executive summary is usually written at the very end, when all other parts of the report are complete. 3. Introduction Provide a clear introduction of the context of your report. ▪What is the conflict? ▪Where did this conflict happen? (ie, country of the conflict) ▪When did the conflict start? When did it end? Is it still ongoing? ▪Who are the parties of the conflict? ▪Why are they fighting? Is it an international conflict? ➢ Which countries were involved in the fighting? ➢ Which countries were affected? Is it a domestic conflict? ➢ Which geographic areas of the country were affected? ➢ Which industries were affected? ➢ Did this domestic conflict also have international consequences? 4. Analysis Provide a clear, data-driven analysis of the causes and consequences of the conflict. Conduct a descriptive data analysis – to give the reader maximum information. Read the literature to understand what drives conflict in general, and link this understanding to the causes and consequences of this particular conflict. Example 1: 'GDP over time' 700 Start of conflict 600 500 GDP ($, Million) We know from the literature that poverty is identified as a cause of conflict. (Do you know which papers propose this? You will need to cite the relevant literature!) 400 300 200 Use data on poverty/income trends in the country before the conflict, to discuss if these could have affected people's urge to fight. Visualizations + Calculations GDP declined by approximately 30% from 2000-2006 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ethnic Composition of Country X Example 2: 5% We know from the literature that ethnic fractionalization/ethnic polarization is identified as a cause of conflict. (Do you know which papers propose this? You will need to cite the relevant literature!) Use data on ethnic composition in the country, to discuss if this could have affected people's urge to fight. 40% Ethnicity 1 55% Ethnicity 2 Ethnicity 3 Ethnic Composition of Country Y 8% 8% 24% Ethnicity 1 Ethnicity 2 10% Ethnicity 3 Ethnicity 4 Ethnicity 5 Again, Visualizations + Calculations 14% 20% Ethnicity 6 Ethnicity 7 16% Example 3 Something little bit more advanced - particularly related to consequences of conflict. Gather actual vs predicted data and plot them to show the deviation due to the conflict. GDP growth rate, predicted vs actual 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% Today's tutorial will discuss such an exercise. 0.00% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year Predicted Actual 2015 2016 5. Policy proposal ➢Conflicts are complex. ➢Conflicts involve many parties with different needs and wants. ➢Conflicts have devastating socio-economic impacts on many parties. In an ideal world, we would simply say "don’t fight" as our policy proposal! But that's NOT what we are looking for here. We are looking for a "specific", "relevant" and "clearly identified" policy proposal to mitigate the impact of the conflict on economic development. The tricky party - There is no "single" right policy that can be proposed. YOU make a "choice" - and explain to the audience why your choice matters. Tips on defining a policy proposal 1. Identify the target of your policy ➢A conflict can affect multiple aspects of the society. ➢For example, a conflict can affect ➢the economy as a whole ➢A particular industry ➢A particular ethnic group ➢A particular geographic area ➢A particular vulnerable group in the society (such as women, children) ➢ You are not expected to propose policies for all such aspects. ➢ Choose ONE affected part of the society. ➢ Identify why it is affected, how it is affected and by how much it is affected. 2. Propose a policy for the target group you identified ➢ Discuss how the policy can positively change the situation of the target group Policy proposals can be targeted at ➢ Making life better for already affected parties ➢ Post-conflict recovery ➢ Preventing conflicts from happening in the future Some examples Example 1 Context: Mining conflict in Africa Conflicts increase when the value of global mineral prices increases. Mine workers are underpaid - they organize as rebel groups and fight to acquire the mine when the value of the mine is high. (Show me the numbers and figures!) Policy (suggestion): Legislation to unionize mine workers so they can negotiate wages that reflect the value of minerals. Using calculations/figures, discuss how this can improve miners' lives. Example 2 Context: Conflict driven by natural disasters A major natural disaster occurred in agricultural areas of Country X. Destruction of crops and harvest, led to a full breakdown of the agricultural economy. Farmers are unable to rebuild agricultural infrastructure - their livelihoods and sources of future income are destroyed - fighting for survival. (Show me the numbers and figures!) Policy (suggestion): Government subsidies to compensate for farmers' incomes in the short run. Government contributions for farmers to rebuild agricultural infrastruture in the long run – to improve harvest in the next growing season. Using calculations/figures, discuss how this can improve farmers' lives. Example 3 Context: Internal conflict in Country Y, which is the world's leading wheat manufacturer. The conflict has had a major impact on the production of wheat in Country Y, leading to sky-rocketing wheat prices in global markets. Supply side constraints from the global market have heavily affected wheat prices in the Australian domestic market, and prices have increased sharply. Wheat flour is in short supply and this in turn is causing unrest among domestic consumers. (Show me the numbers and figures!) Policy (suggestions): Government intervention in the Australian domestic market to source wheat from alternative suppliers/ subsidize or reduce indirect taxes on wheat products to pass on a lower price for the customers. Using calculations/figures, discuss how this can improve consumers' lives. Example 4 Context: Internal conflict in Country Z, which has been going on for years. Recent World Bank reports highlight that children from the minority ethnicity are in a vulnerable position. Literacy rates, infant mortality and nutrition levels of the minority ethnicity have been worsening over time (Show me the numbers and figures!). Policy (suggestions): Policies to improve minority ethnic children's access to education and health. ▪ Improved teaching resources (schools/teachers/books) ▪ Provision of a nutritious meal at school ▪ Consistent health check ups ▪ Improved reporting systems so vulnerable kids can be identified early and treated. Using calculations/figures, discuss how this can improve children's lives. Policy checklist ➢Does your policy have a clearly defined target group? ➢Does your policy have a clear economic motivation? ➢Is your policy evidence-based? ➢Does your policy clearly identify the expected outcomes? ➢Does your policy make life better for the target group? 6. Discussion and recommendation ➢Elaborate on your policy proposal ➢Explain with data the justification of why you propose it ➢What are the expected outcomes? ➢What will happen if this policy is not implemented? (this is another way to highlight why your policy is important) ➢Discuss the limitations of your policy. Be open that you are making this recommendation based on available information, data etc. There may be other things happening "on the ground" that can affect the effectiveness of your policy. 7. Conclusion Summarize everything you have done in the report. Clear, concise, free of detailed elaborations. Highlight the proposal, justification and limitations. References ➢Use a standard referencing format, such as Harvard, APA or MLA. ➢Choose one and stick with it (be consistent). ➢In-text citation vs reference list. ➢The library provides a really nice interface to get this sorted. https://libguides.library.usyd.edu.au/c.php?g=508212&p=3476063 Rubric Empirical Analysis – 30 points ▪Obtaining relevant data sets and critically analysing the data. ▪Inclusion of at least one original figure AND one original quantification. Policy proposal – 20 points ▪Provision of at least one policy recommendation, with justification based on the empirical analysis. Discussion and recommendation – 20 points ▪ Clear, balanced discussion of the findings along with justifications. ▪ Discussion on limitations and uncertainties. Writing and presentation – 20 points ▪ Clear and concise writing of the appropriate style. ▪ Free of grammatical and spelling errors. ▪ Graphs and tables clear and informative References – 5 points ▪ Correct, consistent and relevant references. Structure and formatting -- 5points ▪ Clear structure and appropriate formatting of report. Some FAQ's ▪What should I write about in the final assignment? ▪Can I work on any conflict? ▪Can I work on an on-going conflict? ▪Can I work on a past conflict? ▪Can I write my assignment about a conflict that another person is also focusing on? ▪Should the policy recommendations be for the current period or for post-conflict development? ▪What is meant by original visualization and original quantification? ▪How long should my assignment be? ▪Where can I find the marking rubric for the final assignment? ▪Can I meet the lecturer to clarify my questions? ▪Can I get an extension on my assignment deadline? Tips Choose a conflict that interests you. Conflict is a very complex occurrence and none of us are completely knowledgeable on every conflict in the world. So choosing a conflict that you know at least a little about can help in making your assignment “interesting”. You are free to choose any domestic or international conflict of your choice. Tips Read the literature and cite it! You should read the existing literature to understand what has been studied about (a) conflict in general and (b) the specific conflict. This will help you to organize your thoughts and understand what has been done in the relevant area. Make sure you acknowledge all the previous work in your report. Failure to do so means you conduct the grave academic misconduct of "plagiarism". This is the gravest form of academic dishonesty - can land you in lots of trouble. Tips Choose a conflict for which data is available. The final mark you get for the written report will depend on the data analysis. You will need to analyze and visualize data. Therefore, choosing a historical conflict (ie, one that took place long ago) may not be ideal, as it will make data collection burdensome. Pro tip: Most easily-accessible conflict and economic data sets start from the 1990’s and go up to 2021. Tips Show your data skills. You will download data from relevant sources and analyze them, providing quantitative support to your discussion, along with visualizations. There are many advanced data analysis software packages that economists use, for example Stata, R, Python. If you are fluent in these, you are welcome to use them. At the bare minimum, you will be required analyze the data using Microsoft Excel. Tips Remember: Simply putting together a bunch of data and drawing some graphs is not sufficient. You should display that you have sufficient knowledge about the causes and consequences of conflict in general as well as the specific conflict you choose. Make sure to provide meaningful policy recommendations along with the economic reasoning behind them. You will need to write your report clearly, demonstrating advanced writing skills and critical thinking skills. Wrapping up for the day Today we discussed in detail the structure of the report and what it should contain. Next week is my final lecture for this stream. We will discuss the various socio-economic consequences of conflict, which can feed into your policy recommendations. Please feel free to reach out via email on any stream-related matters. Feedback very much welcome. Virtual consultation hours – Monday 11am-noon. Link on Canvas. Let me know beforehand if you are joining. See you next week!
