1 Predicting the Impact of France’s Dislocation Decision on the Sea Port Infrastructure Sector France moving equal distance from the European continent as the United Kingdom (UK) provides us with the opportunity to predict the change of the sea port infrastructure sector, on the UK. In fact, France and The UK share similar global economic metrics and now geograph: The UK is the 6th largest economy with a GDP of 2.708 Trillion USD, while France is the 7th largest economty with a GDP of 2.603 Trillion USD (World Bank). In order to quantify their similarities, changes in their economic growth, and their currency’s strength, I created a comparison ratio which combines 3 key global economy metrics between France and the UK shown in figure 1. This enables us to predict the amount of investments into the seaport industry using the UK economy as a baseline; then we can adjust this estimate by the difference between the two economies. Using economic data for France and the UK from last year from the World Bank, the commonality ratio shows that these two economies are similar by 71%. Figure 1: Models the difference between the French and UK Economies by quantifying the difference between France’s GDP, Change in GDP per year, and it’s Purchasing Power Parity. France currently does not have the sea port infrastructure required to sustain it’s economy. For example with the dislocation, the UK, which we assume has similar needs as France based on the similarities in GDP and geography, has 120 commercial sea ports according 2 to Martime. France only has 66 (Statistica). In order for France to match the import and export volume that the UK is doing, it has to build 54 sea ports. Adjusting this amount by the commonality ratio (71%), we can estimate the sea port needs for the French economy. France has to build 39 Sea ports. This estimate assumes that France has not already built the ports before hand in anticipation of their decision and that the global economy effects of the Covid Pandemic are still in affect. The average cost of a large commercial port is 2.03 Billion dollars (Nelson, 2), this leads to a projected 79.17 Billion dollars of investment into the sea port industry. This is a drastic investment increase of 264 times the current sea port sector of France, which spends 300 million euros per year on this sector (Statistica). In summary, the French dislocation from the European continent will bolster the sea port industry by a projected 264 times its current value to compensate for the loss of land based distribution of goods, and its projected changes into their current amount of ports, leaving large opportunities for investment from the private sector as well as by the government. This assumes that the amount of import and exports will stay on the same year-to-year trajectory as before. Citations World Development Indicators. “GDP (current US$) - United Kingdom, France”, World Bank, September 23rd, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GB Contributors at The Martime. “Ports in The United Kingdom:”, Martime. September 23, https://www.maritimeuk.org/about/our-sector/ports/#:~:text=There%20are%20about%20120%20commercial,such%20as%20coal %20or%20oil. Statistica Reserach Department. “Amount of money invested in sea port infrastructure in France from 2008 to 2019”, Statistica, September 23rd, https://www.statista.com/statistics/439280/investment-in-sea-port-infrastructure-in-france/ Nelson, Peter. “The ten most expensive port projects in the last year”, Ship-Technology, September 23rd, https://www.ship-technology.com/analysis/the-ten-most-expensive-port-projects-in-the-last-year/
