Date:- 20.08.2022
Note on observations for load forecasting by LMU of DISCOMS.
The load forecasting Team formed under GM (Commerce), GUVNL have one of the scopes for
Demand and load forecasting study.
DISCOM forecasting for day ahead load demand.
It was observed that all DISCOMs are submitting their day ahead forecasting to SLDC around
7:00 a.m. SLDC creates power requirement for day ahead considering forecasting from PGVCL,
DGVCL, MGVCL, UGVCL, TPAECo. TSECo. etc. and anticipated Solar and Wind generation. The
GUVNL bids for shortfall power from exchanges.
The DISCOMs use the previous week and previous day data for forecasting of load in 15
minutes time blocks. The data for the previous week and previous day was collected from
SCADA Data provided by SLDC. .
The actual drawl is derived from the meters provided at interface tie lines between DISCOMs,
generators and Central sector tie lines with other states. These SEM (Special Energy meters)
meters are ABT compliant. The 96 block wise energy recorded in theses meters are collected
and submitted to SLDC by GETCO on weekly basis. After scrutinising the final drawl is published
by SLDC. This process takes much time. The last SEM data available is of 24-Apr-2022 on date
20-Aug-2022 i.e. after 118 days.
The DISCOMs are paying/receiving DSM as per the actual data derived from SEM meters. But
that data was not available to them for fore casting purpose. DISCOMs are using data from
SCADA system. The SEM meters are installed in 2003-04 at the time of ABT implementation.
In order to resolve the representation from SLDC about accuracy of day ahead forecasting by
DISCOM, it is highly recommended to have meter data in 15 minute time block available with
LMU.
GPRD cell have already designed to fetch consumer drawl data from field meters and that was
available in GEOURJA portal. Same needed to be replicated for SEM meters to derive accurate
data needed for Day Ahead and real time forecasting.
The SEM meter used for deriving DISCOM drawl, cost of meter replacement considering Rs.
16000/- and lump sum cost of IT infrastructure as 5.0 Lacs the costing is mentioned below.
NOS OF SEM METERS
SEM METER
METER COST
IT INFRA COST
TOTAL COST IN LACS
DGVCL MGVCL PGVCL UGVCL TOTAL
143
116
411
183
853
22.88
18.56
65.76
29.28 136.48
5
5
5
5
20
27.88
23.56
70.76
34.28 156.48
The provisional cost of power purchase for 2021-22 is 54,435 Cr. So the project cost is mere
0.003 % of power purchase cost. If 0.0001 % cost is saved by efficient forecasting and resultant
optimization of generators than the payback period will be less than 1 Year.
The forum of Regulators had conducted a study and submitted the report on “Introduction of
five Minute Scheduling, Metering, Accounting and Settlement in Indian Electricity market” in
February 2018. The report had a complete the road map for 5 Minute time block wise
scheduling. It is highly possible that such type of law formed to integrate RE generation and
manage the grid in better way. So Gujarat take the challenge proactively and prepare the
network in advance, we may be in better position to handle the future.