MB 732 – Supply Chain Management Assignment – 1A Total Marks – 5 Marks Disclaimer: The following assignment is purely hypothetical and for educational purposes alone. Names of companies and/or products are for illustrative purposes only. No data is in any way relevant to any actual company/ product Snack Shakes (SS) is a company which produces canned milk shakes. SS places orders for milk (the raw material for a milkshake) from a nearby Farm based on the forecasted demand for milkshakes. Past data on milkshakes sold over the past 20 days of this month is provided in Table 1A. Every litre of milkshake requires 1.2 Litres of milk. Using this information, answer the below questions Day of Month Litres of milkshakes sold Day of Month Litres of milkshakes sold 1 1230 11 1302 2 1210 12 1203 3 1270 13 1258 4 1200 14 1217 5 1278 15 1302 6 1252 16 1199 7 1308 17 1240 8 1241 18 1203 9 1254 19 1287 10 1229 20 1205 Table-1A: Past data on litres of milkshakes sold by SS in a given day 1. If a time-series graph of the litres of milkshakes sold by SS in the past 20 days of the month is plotted, then which of the following statements can be assumed to be correct? [0.25 Marks] a. It is a stationary data b. Data has a trend c. Data has seasonality d. I do not know what the above are :P 1 MB 732 – Supply Chain Management Assignment – 1A Total Marks – 5 Marks Say, a Holts Model with the aim of having the best “MSE” is fit to the data in Table-1A. Let this be Model-1. Then 2. What is the value of “Alpha” for Model-1? [0.5 Mark] 3. What is the value of “Beta” for Model-1? [0.5 Mark] 4. What is the MSE for Model-1? [0.5 Mark] Next, modify Model-1 such that the aim is to have the best “MFE”. Let this be Model-2. Then 5. What is the value of “Alpha” for Model-2? [0.5 Mark] 6. What is the value of “Beta” for Model-2? [0.5 Mark] 7. What is the MFE for Model-2? [0.5 Mark] Now, fit a Holts-Winters model (Model-3) to have the best MSE for data in Table-1A. Then 8. 9. 10. 11. What is the value of “Alpha” for Model-3? [0.5 Mark] What is the value of “Beta” for Model-3? [0.5 Mark] What is the value of “Gamma” for Model-3? [0.5 Mark] Which model is the best? [0.25 Mark] a. Model-1 b. Model-2 c. Model-3 d. Cannot say, the comparison is not possible Note-1: For questions 2 through 10, when inputting your answers in Moodle, stop at four decimal places. For example, if your answer is 11.125691 then input the answer is 11.1256 Note-2: For all intermediate computations involved in this assignment, round your answer to 2 decimals using “Round()” function in excel ALL THE BEST -- X -- 2