MB 732 – Supply Chain Management
Assignment – 1A
Total Marks – 5 Marks
Disclaimer: The following assignment is purely hypothetical and for educational purposes alone.
Names of companies and/or products are for illustrative purposes only. No data is in any way
relevant to any actual company/ product
Snack Shakes (SS) is a company which produces canned milk shakes. SS places orders for milk (the
raw material for a milkshake) from a nearby Farm based on the forecasted demand for milkshakes. Past
data on milkshakes sold over the past 20 days of this month is provided in Table 1A. Every litre of
milkshake requires 1.2 Litres of milk. Using this information, answer the below questions
Day of
Month
Litres of
milkshakes sold
Day of
Month
Litres of
milkshakes sold
1
1230
11
1302
2
1210
12
1203
3
1270
13
1258
4
1200
14
1217
5
1278
15
1302
6
1252
16
1199
7
1308
17
1240
8
1241
18
1203
9
1254
19
1287
10
1229
20
1205
Table-1A: Past data on litres of milkshakes sold by SS in a given day
1. If a time-series graph of the litres of milkshakes sold by SS in the past 20 days of the month is
plotted, then which of the following statements can be assumed to be correct? [0.25 Marks]
a. It is a stationary data
b. Data has a trend
c. Data has seasonality
d. I do not know what the above are :P
1
MB 732 – Supply Chain Management
Assignment – 1A
Total Marks – 5 Marks
Say, a Holts Model with the aim of having the best “MSE” is fit to the data in Table-1A. Let this be
Model-1. Then
2. What is the value of “Alpha” for Model-1? [0.5 Mark]
3. What is the value of “Beta” for Model-1? [0.5 Mark]
4. What is the MSE for Model-1? [0.5 Mark]
Next, modify Model-1 such that the aim is to have the best “MFE”. Let this be Model-2. Then
5. What is the value of “Alpha” for Model-2? [0.5 Mark]
6. What is the value of “Beta” for Model-2? [0.5 Mark]
7. What is the MFE for Model-2? [0.5 Mark]
Now, fit a Holts-Winters model (Model-3) to have the best MSE for data in Table-1A. Then
8.
9.
10.
11.
What is the value of “Alpha” for Model-3? [0.5 Mark]
What is the value of “Beta” for Model-3? [0.5 Mark]
What is the value of “Gamma” for Model-3? [0.5 Mark]
Which model is the best? [0.25 Mark]
a. Model-1
b. Model-2
c. Model-3
d. Cannot say, the comparison is not possible
Note-1: For questions 2 through 10, when inputting your answers in Moodle, stop at four decimal
places. For example, if your answer is 11.125691 then input the answer is 11.1256
Note-2: For all intermediate computations involved in this assignment, round your answer to 2 decimals
using “Round()” function in excel
ALL THE BEST
-- X --
2