21/9/2022 Lecture 5: Financing & Valuation Part 1 1 Learning Outcomes To understand: Valuing What businesses or project analysis; is capital budgeting and the different methods: Net Present Value using WACC Net Present Value using Flow-to-equity (FTE) (Week 6) Adjusted Issues Present Value (Week 7) and considerations when using NPV (Week 7) 2 1 21/9/2022 Recall from Week 4 In order to value a project, you require an appropriate discount rate The value of the new project will add to overall equity value of the business. You therefore need to know the value of the project. You need a new COC, suitably adjusted to the new gearing level, to value the project In order to calculate the new COC, you need to know the new MV of debt and equity after the project’s acceptance 3 Capital Budgeting at its Simplest The value of a business / project is in simple terms, the sum of the present value of all its expected future cash flows: 𝐶𝐹 1 𝑟 Through this simple formula, we are simply trying to determine what the business/project is worth today, given an appropriate discount rate Recall that the discount rate ‘r’, reflects the expectations on a set of current and future conditions – firm and/or market – that is taken into consideration when valuing a firm/asset By doing this, we are trying to decide whether this business/project will add value to our firm 4 2 21/9/2022 Capital Budgeting at Its Simplest The simplest – and most common – method of capital budgeting is the Net Present Value (NPV) method NPV expands the earlier definition to account for the initial outlay / cost of the investment: 𝐶𝐹 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 1 𝑟 For example, ABC has a project that is expected to generate revenues of $100,000 per year for 5 years. Investing in this project will require an initial outlay of $150,000. Assuming r = 5%, the NPV of this project is: 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 $100,000 $150,000 1 0.05 1 0.05 1 0.05 1 0.05 1 0.05 = $282,947.67 (this is also known as Base-case NPV) General rule of thumb: If NPV > 0, then we accept the project If NPV < 0, then we reject the project 5 Net Present Value using WACC (NPV-WACC) Same as base-case NPV method 2 Differences Use of Free Cash Flow (FCF) Discounted using WACC PV FCF1 FCF2 FCFH PVH ... 1 2 H (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) H Horizon Value PVH FCFH 1 wacc g r = WACC PV (free cash flows) PV (horizon value) 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 1 𝑇 𝑟 𝐷 𝑉 𝑟 𝐸 𝑉 NPV = PV – initial investment 6 3 21/9/2022 Net Present Value using WACC (NPV-WACC) Some important points on NPV-WACC: FCF = cash company generates less cash outflows to support operations and maintain capital assets Excludes non-cash expenses, interest payments and borrowings expenses Includes taxes, spending on equipment and assets, and changes in working capital from the balance sheet (related to the project evaluated) On the use of WACC, there are two possible scenarios Project has no impact on company’s debt-equity ratio = fixed-debt Project impacts company debt-equity ratio = rebalancing required 7 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt XYZ is considering diversifying its operations by setting up a manufacturing division to produce medical masks. Its first potential project entails buying 2 machines for a total of RM600,000. This will produce annual revenue of RM3 million, for 10 years. The cost of production is expected to be 40% of the revenue and the depreciation is RM50,000 per year, using the straight-line method. No inflation is considered in this case. After 10 years, this project will be scrapped to zero value. Sixty per cent (60%) of the initial cost of the project will be financed by debt. The loan will be irredeemable and carry an annual interest rate of 6%. The balance of finance will come from a placement of new equity. It is assumed that there are no issue costs associated to this. The manufacturing industry (for medical masks) has an average geared equity beta of 1.8 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1:5 by market values. XYZ’s current geared equity beta is 1.6 and 30% of its long-term capital is represented by debt that’s generally seen as risk-free. The riskfree rate is 2.5% a year and the expected return on an average market portfolio is 8%. Corporation tax is set at 30% per annum. 8 4 21/9/2022 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt Lay down the facts: Initial investment = RM600,000 Annual revenue = RM3,000,000 for 10 years Cost of production = 40% of revenue Depreciation = RM50,000 Project is financed 60/40 debt-equity Cost of debt = 6% p.a. Industry geared equity beta = 1.8 Industry debt-equity ratio = 1:5 XYZ equity beta = 1.6; 30% of long-term capital is risk-free Risk-free rate = 2.5% p.a. Market portfolio return = 8% Tax = 30% 9 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt Start by calculating FCF RM Calculation Annual Revenue Less: Cost of Production (40%) 3,000,000 (1,200,000) 3,000,000 x 0.4 Profit before Tax 1,800,000 Less: Tax (30%) (540,000) 1,800,000 x 0.3 FCF for 1 year 1,260,000 Assumption: The RM3,000,000 revenue is in cash 10 5 21/9/2022 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt We now need a few things, so let’s work backwards: We To do so, we need Ke and Kd (Kd already provided) We To need to calculate WACC need to calculate Ke do so, we need to calculate company beta 11 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt Step 1: Calculate Company Beta 𝛽 𝛽 ∗ 𝐷 𝐷 𝐸 𝛽 ∗ 𝐸 𝐷 𝐸 From the question: Industry debt-equity ratio = 1:5 so we assume that XYZ has the same debt-equity ratio: D = 1, E = 5 XYZ’s equity beta = 1.6 XYZ’s debt beta = risk-free = 0 0 1 1 5 1.6 5 1 5 1.333 12 6 21/9/2022 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt Step 2: Calculate Cost of Equity 𝑘 𝑟 𝛽 𝑟 𝑟 From the question: Rf = 2.5% Rm = 8% Company Beta (calculated earlier) = 1.333 Therefore, Ke 0.025 1.333 0.08 0.025 0.098315 9.83% 13 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt Step 3: Calculate WACC of the project 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 1 𝑇 𝑘 𝐷 𝐷 𝐸 𝑘 𝐸 𝐷 𝐸 From the question: T = 30% Kd = 6% Ke (calculated earlier) = 10.04% Project is financed 60/40 debt-equity Therefore, WACC: 1 0.3 0.06 0.6 0.098315 0.4 = 0.06453 = 6.453% 14 7 21/9/2022 NPV-WACC Example – Fixed Debt Step 4: Calculate NPV. Since FCF is constant, we can use the PV of Annuity Formula 1 1 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝐹𝐶𝐹 𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 FCF = RM1.26mn; WACC = 6.534%; Initial investment = RM0.6mn Therefore: 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑅𝑀1.26𝑚 1 1 1.06453 0.06453 = RM8.478mn 𝑅𝑀0.6𝑚 15 NPV-WACC Example – Rebalanced D/E Ratio ABC is considering diversifying its operations by setting up a manufacturing division to produce medical masks. Its first potential project entails buying 2 machines for a total of RM600,000. This will produce annual revenue of RM5 million, for 10 years. The cost of production is expected to be 50% of the revenue and the depreciation is RM60,000 per year, using the straight-line method. No inflation is considered in this case. After 10 years, this project will be scrapped to zero value. Sixty per cent (60%) of the initial cost of the project will be financed by debt. The loan will be irredeemable and carry an annual interest rate of 5%. The balance of finance will come from a placement of new equity. It is assumed that there are no issue costs associated to this. The manufacturing industry (for medical masks) has an average geared equity beta of 1.2 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1:6 by market values. Frost’s current geared equity beta is 1.6 and 30% of its long-term capital is represented by debt that’s generally seen as riskfree. The risk-free rate is 4% a year and the expected return on an average market portfolio is 10%. Corporation tax is set at 30% per annum. 16 8 21/9/2022 NPV-WACC Example – Rebalanced D/E Ratio FCF = RM5,000,000 – 2,500,000 – 750,000 = RM1,750,000 See if you can figure it out! In this question, we assume that the project is financially significant enough to alter ABC’s capital structure and subsequently, WACC – which affects our NPV calculation In order for ABC to maintain its current capital structure, it would have to rebalance it’s D/E ratio There are 4 steps to this: Step 1: Unlever / ungear equity beta 𝛽 𝛽 ∗ 𝐷 𝐷 𝐸 𝛽 ∗ 𝐸 𝐷 𝐸 Step 2: Re-calculate the levered equity beta using new debt-equity ratio 𝐷 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝛽 𝐸 Step 3: Recalculate cost of equity using new levered equity beta (use CAPM) Step 4: Recalculate WACC (as normal) 17 NPV-WACC Example – Rebalanced D/E Ratio 𝛽 Step 1: Ungear equity beta 𝛽 ∗ 𝛽 ∗ 0 𝛽 1.6 Step 2: Re-calculate the levered equity beta using new debt-equity ratio 𝛽 𝛽 1.37 1.37 𝛽 1.37 0 . . 3.425 Step 3: Step 3: Recalculate cost of equity using new levered equity beta 𝑘 𝑟 𝑘 0.04 𝛽 𝑟 𝑟 3.425 0.1 0.04 0.2455 24.55% 18 9 21/9/2022 NPV-WACC Example – Rebalanced D/E Ratio Step 4: Re-calculate WACC 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 1 𝑇 𝑘 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 1 0.3 0.05 0.6 𝑘 0.2455 0.4 0.021 0.0982 0.1192 11.92% Finally, Calculate NPV 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝐹𝐶𝐹 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑅𝑀1.75𝑚 𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 . . 𝑅𝑀0.6𝑚 𝑅𝑀9.32𝑚 19 Net Present Value using WACC Fixed‐Debt Rebalanced Step 1: Calculate FCF Step 2: Calculate Company Beta Step 1: Calculate FCF Step 2: Ungear Equity Beta Step 4: Calculate WACC Step 3: Calculate Cost of Equity Step 4: Recalculate Cost of Equity using new Beta Step 3: Recalculate levered equity Beta Step 5: Recalculate WACC Step 6: Calculate NPV Step 5: Calculate NPV 20 10