PROJECT PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
CHAPTER ONE
PART TWO
CONTENTS
 The difference between Project Phases and Milestones
 The Difference between Project Risk and Uncertainty
 The S-Curve
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Project Phases and milestones represent the logical sequence of activities
required to achieve the project goals
 What is Phase? :• Phase is distinct divisions between the types of work. For instance there may be
a procurement phase, a testing phase, a pilot phase, a full implementation
phase.
• Phase is a series of logically related activities. Or Phase refers to a collection
of related activities within a project.
• Each project phase is goal-oriented and ends at a milestone. Reaching these
milestones means the project progresses
•
For example: one can group related tasks and milestones under a common phase
in the project lifecycle. For instance, create a planning phase followed by a design
phase. You can break the planning phase down into planning tasks such as define a
resource plan, identify infrastructure requirements, and identify storage
requirements. .
• Each phase can be divided into sub-phases. The project plan (e. g. a project
network diagram) clarifies the systematic hierarchy of the individual phases and
establishes dependencies among them.
• Phases show the aggregate .
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 What is Phase? …
• If the project phases are planned sequentially, the term waterfall model is used for that
kind of project planning. Each phase is scheduled after the other and they do not
overlap.
• Waterfall Model is a type of development process in which any phase begins only
if the previous phase is complete.
• Waterfall model is an example of a Sequential model. In the example of
this model, like software development, activities are divided into different phases
and each phase consists of a series of tasks and has different objectives.
In waterfall, development of one phase starts only when the previous phase is
complete.
• If project phases are part of an iterative project plan, the individual phases can overlap
as individual steps or tasks from one phase can be adopted in another phase for
optimization.
 Typical project phases are:
•
•
•
•
Project definition: defines the project's scope and objective, usually described in
the customer's specification sheet
Project planning: setting the start- and end date for the whole project, allocating
necessary resources and drawing the project plan with the phases
Project execution and controlling
Project completion: includes the inspection and approval of the deliverables by the
Phases and milestones- meaning…
 What is Project Milestone?
•
Historically a milestone was a stone marker for a mile on a route.
•
Today in a project management, a milestone refers to a significant marker or point, for
example it might be a significant achievement or an important date or an important
point in project or initiative.
•
are significant success points, several of which may occur within a phase – e.g. In a
pilot phase of a project, enrolment; first access; first assessments; first interactive
session; first use of multimedia, etc.
•
are important intermediate goals in the project that divide a project plan into several
stages.
•
represent a clear sequence of events that incrementally build up until your project is
complete.
•
are a way of knowing how the project is advancing, especially if you’re not familiar
with the tasks being executed.
•
are management tool that is used to delineate a point in a project schedule (Activity
plan). These points can note the start and finish of a project, and mark the completion of
a major phase of work.
•
are specific things that you need to have done for the project within a specific amount
of time. These are the places in the timeline that you expect to have some measurable
level of work completed that can either be turned in to a project manager or even to a
client.
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Project Milestones: …
• can be considered as a tool that delineates a point in a project schedule and
shows an important achievement in it. Milestones should demonstrate a clear
sequence of events that incrementally build up until a project is complete.
• Applying project milestones is a way of knowing how the project is advancing.
•
focus on major progress points in a project. It Need to be somewhat major rather than
just being the minor tasks that you’re completing on a day-by-day basis. That’s because their
purpose is to help you know if you’re going to finish the project on time;
• A milestone is a marker in a project that signifies a change or stage in
development. Milestones are powerful components in project management
because they show key events and map forward movement in your project plan.
• Milestones act as signposts through the course of your project, helping ensure
you stay on track. Without project milestone tracking, you’re just monitoring
tasks and not necessarily following the right path in your project.
• Milestones can do more than just show progress—they can help you
communicate what’s happening with your project.
• Milestones focus on progress of the work, Not on time
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Project Milestones: …
 When do we use project milestones?
 Project managers use milestones to mark:
• the start of significant work phases
• the end of significant work phases
• the deadlines for something
• when an important decision is being made.
 Milestones in project management are used as signal posts for a project's start or
end date, external reviews or input, budget checks, submission of a major
deliverable, etc.
 Examples of project milestones
• While the final deliverable or product is indeed a significant milestone, there
are several other milestones that will help you move smoothly toward the final
goal. An example of a milestone in project management could be any of the
following:
• The beginning and end dates for project phases
• Getting approval from a stakeholder that allows you to move to the
next phase
• Key deliverables, meetings, or events
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Project Milestones: …
• Milestones are tasks of zero duration that shows an important achievement in a
project. They have zero duration because they symbolize an achievement, or a
point of time in a project. Since a milestone’s start and end date depends on a
task’s start and end date, task association is a major feature of a milestone
• An important difference between a milestone and a normal task is the, a
millstones do not add any additional duration to the overall project time.
• To create a milestone put in the duration column of any task and enter zero,
to mean the task is a millstone with zero duration.
• In many instances, milestones do not impact project duration. Instead they focus
on major progress points that must be reached to achieve ultimate goal.
• Before your project gets rolling, you will probably want to mark its major goals
with milestones
• To Create a milestone with zero duration, the quickest way is to add a task with
no duration to your project plan.
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
• .
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Project Milestones: …
• For Example, Familiar steps involved in building a new home: When
building a home from the ground up, you’re likely to work off a list that
resembles this:
- The floors will be finished on Monday
- The roof will be completed on November 1st
- The gas installation will be connected at the end of the month
• Think of each of the above as a milestone—or a clear sequence of
events that build up until your home/project is complete.
• In building a website for your own, the following can be considered as
the important maelstroms 1. Preparing documentation; 2. Completing
web design; 3. Programming 4. Testing and launch
• In Project Management milestones are key points in a project lifecycle.
They might be target dates that must be met or delivery of important
work packages or markers of progress - the completion of a phase or
stage.
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Project Milestones: …
 In general , a project milestone can be defined as
-
-
a marker that signifies a change in the project’s state.
a markers throughout the project’s course, and ensure that a project
stays on track.
effective scheduling tools that help prevent projects from going over
budget.
Is a schedule tool that tell us what a project is supposed to achieve at a
pre-set date
help keep a project on track and deliver projects on time
• Milestones provide a way to more accurately estimate the time it will take to
complete your project, making them essential for precise project scheduling.
• They are often used in scheduling methodologies, such as the Critical Path
Method, which can determine major scheduling periods. With milestones, you
can better calculate the slack in your project by segmenting the project into
intervals, or smaller timeframes to control
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Key Characteristics of Milestones
1. Zero duration: it takes zero second or zero minute to pass the
milestones.
• Milestones are tasks of zero duration that shows an important
achievement in a project. They have zero duration because they
symbolize an achievement, or a point of time in a project. Since a
milestone’s start and end date depends on a task’s start and end date,
task association is a major feature of a milestone
• An important difference between a milestone and a normal task is
the, a millstones do not add any additional duration to the overall
project time
2.
3.
4.
5.
It is written in past o tense in project plan. For example: have passed
the milestone.
Milestones should be SMART
Milestones celebrate. everybody should celebrate by bringing all project
team together
All milestones on the way ( in a project) are equally important
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
 Importance of Project Milestones
1.
help to track and measure progress. For example, add a milestone named
planning phase gate complete. The milestone is complete only when all the
tasks in the planning phase are completed
2.
Used as minimal points of control in the project for those who are not
familiar with it, such as high-level sponsors, stakeholders, and executives in
the organization
3.
Help others know how you’re doing on the project.
4.
Help to show just how far you’ve come and how much further have to go.
• By looking at the milestones that you’ve achieved your team can see the
progress and so can a client. They can see that you’re moving forward
and that you’re putting a lot of time and effort into their project rather
than just waiting until the last minute. These milestones can be
deliverables or they can just be signposts that you use along the way to
mark your progress.
Importance of Milestone for project success
 Importance of Project Milestones…
5. Milestones improve project delivery.
• Milestones break down a large, complex project into smaller phases.
• Depending on the requirements, your best team members and resources can
be assigned to a phase. They in turn can concentrate on achieving a milestone
by completing the tasks for the phase
6. Milestones facilitate communication with stakeholders.
• Milestones help you track project progress. It’s a way to measure how far
you’ve come. And how far you’re from completing the project
• Most stakeholders are not interested in learning about the day-to-day tasks
happening in a project. Yet, they want to stay informed about a project’s
progress. Milestones come in handy when communicating progress
Importance of Milestone for project success
7. Project Millstone serve as checkpoint
• According to a Gartner survey, over 35 % of projects fail due to
inaccurate requirements gathering.
• You don’t want to wait until the last minute to verify the accuracy of
a project’s requirements. That is where project milestones help.
•
Milestones add checkpoints for both the project team as well as the
stakeholders. And ensure that the project stays on track.
• These checkpoints become even more critical when working with
external vendors and partners. Milestones provide clear visual clues
to suppliers for deliveries and stakeholders for approval
Importance of Milestone for project success
 Importance of Project Milestones…
8. Milestones keep the stakeholders & team on track.
• Milestones serve as reminders to stakeholders about important project events
such as:

Requirement gathering workshops,

Reviewing milestone deliverables, and

Other upcoming meetings.
• For teams, milestones indicate upcoming deadlines, deliverables, and
Impending supplies from vendors.
9. Milestones improve team engagement.: to motivate teams
• A project milestone doesn’t have to be about dry tasks and review meetings. It’s
also an opportunity to congratulate your team and celebrate. Depending on your
budget, you can give your team a thank you note, take them out to lunch, or even
give a bonus.
•
Acknowledging your team’s achievements pays off in the long-term. It helps
improve:
• Project engagement,
• Team loyalty, and
• Employee retention
How To Create a Phase-Milestone Plan…
Step 1: Define Milestones
 Firstly, look at the most important decision and orientation points of
the project. Identify
• Which milestones mark the progress of the project and
• When do they need to be achieved?
 Let’s assume that you are managing an expo project. In this case the
following milestones could be relevant:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Expo concept is defined
Stand area booked & reconfirmed
Orders reconfirmed
Marketing materials completed
End of expo
Final meeting of the team members
How To Create a Phase-Milestone Plan…
Step 2: Define Project Phases
• Probably you have automatically set the milestones in a chronological
order. The next step is to derive the individual phases from this.
• Note that milestones can not only mark the end of a project phase, but
also highlight some important results within a project phase.
• The milestone dates defined in the first step already provide you with a
rough duration for the respective phase. In our example, we could use
the following phases:
• Expo Concept
• Stand area organization
• Preparations
• Exhibition marketing
• Event execution
• Wrap-up
Wrap-up
Step 3: Visualization
• In the last step you start to visualize your results by using a timeline. you can
quickly and easily create your phase plan as a Gantt chart.
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
Phases and Milestones- Meaning
Project Phase Risk and Uncertainty
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 What is Risk?
• A risk is an unplanned event that may affect one or some of project objectives
if it occurs. Anything that might occur to change the outcome of a project
activity, we call that a risk.
• A risk can be an event (like a snowstorm) or it can be a condition (like an
important part being unavailable). Either way, it’s something that may or may
not happen, but if it does, then it will force you to change the way you and
your team work on the project.
• Risk is an uncertain future event or condition which if happens affect the
mission objectives.
• It could have a positive or negative effect.
• The risk is positive if it affects project positively, and it is negative if it affects
the project negatively.
• Positive risks is called opportunities. You would like to take maximum
advantage of these positive risks. For example, opportunities that help a project
- some event like finding an easier way to do an activity or
- some condition like lower prices for certain materials.
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 There are separate risk response strategies for negatives and positives.
• The objective of a negative risk response strategy is to minimize
their impact or probability, while
• The objective of a positive risk response strategy is to maximize the
chance or impact
 Thus “Risk” means more specifically:
• The potential for positive or negative impacts to scope, schedule,
budget or quality (some risks can be opportunities)
• Things that are not part of our base assumptions or have not been
realized
• Things that are in our control and influence vs. what’s outside our
control and influence
• Lifecycle flow from initiation, through planning, implementation to
closing
 Risks may be : known and unknown.
• Known risks are identified during the identify risks process and
• Unknown risks are those you couldn’t identify
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
• A contingency plan is made for known risks, and you will use the contingency
plan to manage them. On the other hand, unknown risks are managed through
a workaround using the management reserve (amount of the total allocated
budget withheld for management control purposes)
• Risk is the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence. Risk is the potential for
realization of unwanted negative consequences of an event. Risk is the
consequence of the activities and associated uncertainties
• Risk possible negative outcome expressed by probability multiplied by the
consequence. In project management, risk refers to the measurement of both the
probability and consequence of failing to achieve a set goal of the project
Risk = Consequences X Probability
• Risk is associated with future event, which has not happened yet. A risk which
has already occurred is considered as an “issue”.
• Risk management is the identification, assessment and prioritization of risk
(positive or negative) followed by coordinated and economic application of
resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of
unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Uncertainty
 Uncertainty, is lack of certainty, involving Variability and Ambiguity.
•
•
Variability related to uncertainty about the Size of Parameters which may result
from lack of data, lack of detail, lack of definition, lack of experience and so on,
which may be quantified if this is useful. „
Ambiguity related to aspects of uncertainty not addressed in terms of variability
 Uncertainty is a lack of complete certainty.
• In uncertainty, the outcome of any event is entirely unknown, and it cannot be measured
or guessed; you don’t have any background information on the event.
• The probability of the outcome is Unknown
• Both outcome and the probabilities are unknown
 Uncertainty is not an unknown risk.
• In uncertainty, you completely lack the background information of an event, even though it
has been identified.
• In the case of an unknown risk, although you have the background information, you
missed it during the identify risks process.
 Uncertainty: is the ability to predict outcome of parameters or foresee/forecast events that may
impact the project.
 Uncertainties have a defined range of possible outcomes described by functions reflecting the
probability for each outcome.
 Uncertainty functions can describe discrete events or continuous ranges of outcomes.
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Differences Between Risk and Uncertainty
 The following are a few differences between risk and uncertainty:
• In risk the possibility of a future outcome can be predicted, while in
uncertainty you cannot.
•
Risks can be managed while uncertainty is uncontrollable.
•
Risks can be measured and quantified while uncertainty cannot.
•
It is possible to assign a probability to risk event, while with uncertainty
can’t.
•
Risk refers to decision-making situations under which all potential
outcomes and their likelihood of occurrences are known to the decisionmaker, and uncertainty refers to situations under which either the outcomes
and/or their probabilities of occurrences are unknown to the decision-maker
•
Risks is quantifiable positive /negative things that can happen and
uncertainties is poorly or not quantifiable positive/ negative possible events.
•
Risk is a positive /negative thing that might happen and for which the
probability and the consequence can be quantified. While uncertainties are
positive/ negative things that potentially can happen in a project and that
are poorly or not quantifiable.
Examples for Risk and Uncertainty
Particular
Risk
Uncertainty
Knowledge
Perfect knowledge
Imperfect knowledge
Outcome
Known
Not known
Probability
Known
Not known
Measurement
Measurable
Not measurable
Example
• Incidence of pest and
diseases ( -ve)
• Fixed capital
investment (+ve)
• Shortfall in rainfall
(-ve)
• Drought (-ve)
• Implication of Corona
Virus pandemic
• Outbreak of Avian ( Bird)
flu
• Technological uncertainty
Risk Associated with Project
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 The Basics of Risk Management
• The risk management process involves the systematic application of
management policies, processes and procedures to the tasks of
establishing the context, identifying, analyzing, assessing, treating,
monitoring and communicating risks
 The basics of risk management steps are
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Identify the risk : what are the potential risks?
Assessment of Probability: Analyze the probability the risk will occur and the
potential impact of the risk. what is the likelihood of risk occurrence?
Determine the overall severity of the risk
Determine which risks are the most important for further action
Document a response plan for the risk
- Avoid/Elimination the risk : get rid of it to a level where its impact
become insignificant
- Mitigate the risk: take steps to reduce/ minimize
- Transfer the risk: Move risk to another entity such as a consultant ,
or contractor or buying Insurance
- Accept the risk: absorb the risk and build contingency plan, and adjust
the budget accordingly
6. Monitoring – what is occurring in terms of risk?
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
Methods of risk Management
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Risk Management Options: When we are planning project, there are
four basic ways to handle a risk.
1. Avoid: The best thing one can do with a risk is avoid it. If possible
prevent it from happening, it definitely won’t hurt the project. The
easiest way to avoid risk is to walk away from the cliff, but that may not
be an option on this project.
2. Mitigate: If you can’t avoid the risk, you can mitigate it. This means
taking some sort of action that will cause it to do as little damage to
projects as possible.
3. Transfer: One effective way to deal with a risk is to pay someone else
to accept it/ share it/ for you. The most common way to do this is to
buy insurance, Or share with another entity such as a consultant or
contractor
4. Accept: When you can’t avoid, mitigate, or transfer a risk, then you
have to accept it. But even when you accept a risk, at least you’ve
looked at the alternatives and you know what will happen if it occurs. If
you can’t avoid the risk, and there’s nothing you can do to reduce its
impact, then accepting it is your only choice.
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
• If your project requires that you stand on the edge of a cliff, then there’s a
risk that you could fall. If it’s very windy out or if the ground is slippery and
uneven, then falling is more likely
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Risk Management Process
•
•
•
Managing risks on projects is a process that includes risk assessment and a mitigation
strategy for those risks.
Risk assessment includes both the identification of potential risk and the evaluation of the
potential impact of the risk
A risk mitigation plan is designed to eliminate or minimize the impact of the risk
events—occurrences that have a negative impact on the project. Identifying risk is both a
creative and a disciplined process. The creative process includes brainstorming sessions
where the team is asked to create a list of everything that could go wrong. All ideas are
welcome at this stage with the evaluation of the ideas coming later
 Risk Identification
 A more disciplined process involves using checklists of potential risks and evaluating
the likelihood that those events might happen on the project.
• Some companies and industries develop risk checklists based on experience from
past projects.
• These checklists can be helpful to the project manager and project team in
identifying both specific risks on the checklist and expanding the thinking of the
team. The past experience of the project team, project experience within the
company, and experts in the industry can be valuable resources for identifying
potential risk on a project
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Identifying the sources of risk by category is another method for exploring
potential risk on a project. Some examples of categories for potential risks
include the following:
•
Technical, Cost, Schedule, Client, Contractual, Weather, Financial,
Political, Environmental, People.
•
Use the same framework as the work breakdown structure (WBS) for
developing a risk breakdown structure (RBS). A risk breakdown structure
organizes the risks that have been identified into categories using a table
with increasing levels of detail to the right
•
Table of Risk breakdown structure
Task
Risk
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Risk Evaluation:
•
•
•
•
After the potential risks have been
identified, the project team then
evaluates each risk based on the
probability that a risk event will occur
and the potential loss associated with it.
Not all risks are equal. Some risk events
are more likely to happen than others,
and the cost of a risk can vary greatly.
Evaluating the risk for probability of
occurrence and the severity or the
potential loss to the project is the next
step in the risk management process
Risk evaluation is about developing an
understanding of which potential risks
have the greatest possibility of occurring
and can have the greatest negative
impact on the project
There is a positive correlation between
project risk and project complexity
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Risk Mitigation
•
After the risk has been identified and evaluated, the project team develops a risk
mitigation plan, which is a plan to reduce the impact of an unexpected event. The
project team mitigates risks in various ways:

Risk avoidance

Risk sharing

Risk reduction

Risk transfer
• Each of these mitigation techniques can be an effective tool in reducing individual risks
and the risk profile of the project. The risk mitigation plan captures the risk mitigation
approach for each identified risk event and the actions the project management team
will take to reduce or eliminate the risk.
 Risk avoidance usually involves developing an alternative strategy that has a higher
probability of success but usually at a higher cost associated with accomplishing a
project task.
• A common risk avoidance technique is to use proven and existing technologies
rather than adopt new techniques, even though the new techniques may show
promise of better performance or lower costs.
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Risk sharing involves partnering with others to share responsibility for the risky
activities.
•
Many organizations that work on international projects will reduce political, legal,
labor, and others risk types associated with international projects by developing a joint
venture with a company located in that country
• Partnering with another company to share the risk associated with a portion of the
project is advantageous when the other company has expertise and experience the
project team does not have.
• If a risk event does occur, then the partnering company absorbs some or all of the
negative impact of the event. The company will also derive some of the profit or benefit
gained by a successful project
 Risk reduction is an investment of funds to reduce the risk on a project
• On international projects, companies will often purchase the guarantee of a currency
rate to reduce the risk associated with fluctuations in the currency exchange rate.
• A project manager may hire an expert to review the technical plans or the cost
estimate on a project to increase the confidence in that plan and reduce the project risk.
• Assigning highly skilled project personnel to manage the high-risk activities is
another risk-reduction method. Experts managing a high-risk activity can often predict
problems and find solutions that prevent the activities from having a negative impact
on the project. Some companies reduce risk by forbidding key executives or technology
experts to ride on the same airplane.
Understanding Risks and Uncertainty
 Risk transfer is a risk reduction method that shifts the risk from the project
to another party.
• The purchase of insurance on certain items is a risk-transfer
method. The risk is transferred from the project to the insurance
company.
• A construction project in the Caribbean may purchase hurricane
insurance that would cover the cost of a hurricane damaging the
construction site.
• The purchase of insurance is usually in areas outside the control of
the project team. Weather, political unrest, and labour strikes are
examples of events that can significantly impact the project and that
are outside the control of the project team.
Project Phases and Risk
 Project risk is dealt with in different ways depending on the phase of the project.
1.
Initiation: Risk is associated with things that are unknown. More things are
unknown at the beginning of a project, but risk must be considered in the initiation
phase and weighed against the potential benefit of the project’s success in order to
decide if the project should be chosen.
•
During the initiation phase, risks are identified that could threaten the viability
of the project. Mitigation options are considered to see if they would be
sufficient to protect the project.
2.
Planning Phase: Once the project is approved and it moves into the planning
stage, risks are identified with each major group of activities.
•
A risk breakdown structure (RBS) can be used to identify increasing levels
of detailed risk analysis.
Task
•
Risks
Mitigation
During the planning phase, risks are identified and analyzed for each activity
group in a risk breakdown structure, and mitigation is planned for each risk
Project Phases and Risk
3. Implementation Phase: As the project progresses and more information becomes
available to the project team, the total risk on the project typically reduces, as activities are
performed without loss. The risk plan needs to be updated with new information and risks
checked off that are related to activities that have been performed.
• During the execution phase, risks are checked off as activities are
completed or mitigation is performed if loss does occur. New risks are
identified and added to the plan.
4.
Closeout Phase: During the closeout phase, agreements for risk sharing and risk
transfer need to be concluded and the risk breakdown structure examined to be sure all
the risk events have been avoided or mitigated. The final estimate of loss due to risk can
be made and recorded as part of the project documentation
• During the closeout phase, insurance contracts are cancelled and
partnerships terminated. A summary of actual costs associated with
risks are compared with initial estimates to refine estimating
capabilities. The successes and failures of the risk management plan
are summarized and saved with the project documentation to add to
the company’s corporate knowledge.
What is S-curve of
Project Progress?
S-curve of project Progress
 What is an S curve graph?
•
is a mathematical graph that describes relevant cumulative data for a project—
such as cost or man-hours—plotted against time.
•
is defined as a display of cumulative costs, labor hours or other quantities plotted against
time.
•
is typically used to track the progress of a project.
•
In today’s fast-paced business climate, ensuring that a project is on schedule and on
budget is paramount to its success.
•
The reason it’s called an S-curve is because the shape of the graph typically forms
a loose, shallow “S.” The shape depends on the type of project, though, so other
formations are possible.
•
The name derives from the S-like shape of the curve, flatter at the beginning and
end and steeper in the middle, which is typical of most projects.
•
The ‘S’ in the ‘S-Curve’ definition stands for ‘Sigmoidal’, which is a mathematical
term related to the way the curve is derived. You can, however, think of it as an Sshaped curve that predicts how a project/ business will grow over its life cycle.
•
The beginning represents a slow, deliberate but accelerating start, while the end
represents a deceleration as the work runs out
S-Curve in Project Management
•
Why an “S” ?
The s-curve often forms the shape of an “s” because the growth of the project in
the beginning stages is usually slow:
•
The wheels are just beginning to turn; team members are either researching
the industry or just starting to engage in the first phase of execution, which can
take longer at first, before they get the hang of it or before there are kinks to
work out.
•
During the early stages, the project is starting to unravel, and the team
members are just doing the research about the industry or they are just
beginning to engage in the first phase of project execution
•
Then, as more progress is made, the growth accelerates rapidly—creating that
upward slope that forms the middle part of the “s”
•
This point of maximum growth is called the point of inflection. During this period,
project team members are working heavily on the project, and many of the major
costs of the project are incurred.
•
After the point of inflection, the growth begins to plateau, forming the upper part
of the “s” known as the upper asymptote —and the “mature” phase of the
project. This is because the project is mostly finished at this point and is winding
down: Typically only tasks such as finishing touches and final approvals are left at
this point.
Types of S-curves
 There are a variety of S-curves that are applicable to project management
applications, including:
• Man Hours versus Time S-curve
• Costs versus Time S-curve
• Value and percentage S curve
• Baseline S-curve
• Actual S-curve
• Target S-curve
 The S-Curve model simply makes use of the projected number of man-hours
and costs to complete the project vs. the actual number of hours and costs
incurred within the same time frame. The proposed /planned time, man-hour
and cost data are referred to as the “baseline" data.
Why an “S” ?
Project cost
/expenditure/
rate
Slow
Why an “S” ?
• Comparisons between the Baseline and the Target curvatures denote growth of
the project as far as scope is concerned. Plotting of the Target S-Curve may
finish above or below the Baseline S-Curve, in which case:
• If the scope increases and the baseline duration or time allotment is
fixed, then it is likely that the project will be completed beyond the
targeted date. This results to what is called the Project Slippage (a
lessening of performance), or the difference between the targeted finish
dates vs. the baseline finish date • If the scope increases and the baseline costs or proposed costs are fixed,
then it is likely that the project will be completed beyond the budgeted
costs, which could result to fewer profits or even potential losses.
• If the scope decreases and the baseline duration or time allotment is
fixed, then it is likely that the project will be completed ahead of the
targeted date.
• If the scope decreases and the baseline costs or proposed costs are fixed,
then it is likely that the project will be completed at less than the budgeted
costs, which spells greater profits
Importance of S-curve in project management
•
S-curves are useful for many different purposes throughout the
project lifespan
• Some of the most common uses for s-curves are
1. To measure or Evaluate Progress and performance
• S-Curves are used to visualize the progress of a project over time. They
plot either cumulative work, based on person-hours, or costs over time.
Importance of S-curve in project management
• First and foremost, S-curves are used in evaluating the progress of the
project in question and its performance. This is achieved through the use of
Earned Value Management.
• There are a lot of factors that need to be evaluated in the process of finding out
the current status of the project and the future forecasts about the project. They
are:
 Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), which is also known as

Planned Value (PV)= Approved value of the work to be completed in a
given time. It is equal to the budgeted amount.
 Earned Value(EV) = is value of the work actually completed to date. EV
is total project budget multiplied by the % of project completion.
 Actual Cost(AC)= is the total cost incurred for the actual work
completed to date ( amount of money spent to date)
• All of these factors need to be compared with the planned S-curve to generate
results.
• This comparison is very powerful, because, if you want to know the project is
overrunning the budget or some other task is behind schedule, you can take a
glance at the graph and it will immediately answer your query.
Importance of S-curve in project management
2. To Make Cash-flow Forecasts
• The next use of s-curves is the development of Cash flow and forecasting the
changes that the cash flow would bring.
• Cash Flow is the timing and the movement of the cash with respect to the tasks
and events happening during the project execution.
• This cash flow curve is very useful for the stakeholders. The most important
benefit of drawing a cash flow curve is that you can evaluate the need for cash
and the actual timing when the payment is due under the obligations accepted by
the company.
Importance of S-curve in project management
3. Quantity Output Comparison
• Another important use of s curves is to evaluate the quantity output that
your project will yield. This is used more prominently in the construction
and manufacturing industries.
Importance of S-curve in project management
4. Helpful in monitoring the success of a project because actual,
real-time cumulative data of various elements of the project—such as
cost—can be compared with projected data. The degree of alignment
between the two graphs reveals the progress—or lack thereof—of
whichever element is being studied.
• S-curves are great graphical project management tools for
planning,
monitoring,
controlling,
analyzing,
and
forecasting project's status, progress, & performance.
• They show the progress of work over time and form a historical
record of project trends and variations. S-curves are used for
different purposes
5. If corrections need to be made to get back on track, the s-curve
can help identify them