The demographic
transition model
Key questions: The demographic transition model
By the end of this chapter you should have considered
these key themes and questions:
What is the demographic transition model and
what is its purpose?
What are the stages of the demographic transition
model and how do they apply to different countries?
What relevance does the demographic transition
model have today?
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The demographic transition model
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Applying the DTM to countries
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Population change in a country over time
In theory, different countries should travel through the stages
of the DTM as they become more developed.
The UK and
Sweden are
good examples,
demonstrated
by the falling
birth and death
rates on the
graph that
conform to the
DTM pattern.
Do you think all countries will follow the DTM pattern?
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A fifth stage?
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Population decline in Italy
Italy is a good example of the fifth stage of the DTM because
its population is in decline.
Population growth rate: –0.047%
Birth rate:
8.36 per 1000 population
Death rate:
10.61 per 1000 population
Italy has an ageing population, so has a higher death rate,
but the main reason for the declining population is a falling
birth rate, due to an increase in the number of working women
and the number of women getting married later.
Other countries are also suffering from a population
decline. What other factors might cause this?
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What affects the DTM?
How could the events in these
photographs impact on a
country's passage through the
demographic transition model?
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Relevance and weaknesses of the DTM
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Population Pyramids related to the
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
IMPLICATIONS
Both birth rates and
Death rates are
high, so population
growth rates are
slow but population
Is usually restored
due to high Birth
Rate. Short life
Expectancy.
EXAMPLES
UK before 1760
New Guinea
Remote parts
of Amazonia
Stage 2
Stage 3
IMPLICATIONS
IMPLICATIONS
IMPLICATIONS
Population continues
to grow but at slower
rate. Low Death Rate.
Dramatically declining
Birth Rate.
Low Birth Rate
and Death Rate.
Higher dependency ratio
and longer life expectancy.
Death Rate does
rise slightly because of
the ageing population.
EXAMPLES
UK 1870 -1950
Algeria, Tunisia
Morocco
EXAMPLES
UK today.
Japan, USA
Population starts
to grow at an
exponential rate due to
fall in Death Rate. More
living In middle age.
Life expectancy rises
Infant mortality rate falls.
EXAMPLES
UK 1760 - 1830
Republic of Congo
Stage 4
There is some merit in including or considering
a Stage 5 today with a declining population. Countries that
have experienced this some years include UK and Sweden.
What does the DTM model do?
Strengths
• Describes population changes over time in a generalised
way that can be applied to a number of MEDCs
• It allows a few simple statements to be made about the
population characteristics of societies at various stages
of development
• Can link population structure and migration to the
demographic transition model
• It can be used to compare rates of growth between
different countries at a given point in time
• Helps to explain what has happened and why it’s
happened in that sequence
• Can be applied to many other countries in Europe. Some
NICs went through similar stages but faster than Britain
did.
What does the model not do?
Weaknesses
• It does not predict times when transitions will occur or
provide explanations as to why one stage might lead to
the next
• It does not claim any universality. Because it works in
some places it does not have to work in all places
• It does not explain anything. Because a country is in
Stage 3 of the model, it does not mean it will inevitably
pass into Stage 4.
• Model only looks at natural increase. During the time
period covered for the UK there was a major migration
overseas involving many millions who did not find work
in the cities. This had an effect on the population as a
whole and on its age structure.
Other limitations
• The fifth stage – birth rates in several MEDCs have
fallen below death rates
• The model is Eurocentric and assumed all countries
would pass through the four stages but it is unlikely that
many LEDCs will become industrialised
• The fall in birth rate is often less or more rapid than
suggested in stage 3 (religious views, healthcare,
government policies)
• The timescale of the model does not fit south-east Asian
countries that develop at a much faster rate than early
industrialised countries
• Descriptive not prescriptive