Clean Energy, 2020, 1–9 doi: 10.1093/ce/zkaa022 Advance Access Publication Date: 18 December 2020 Homepage: https://academic.oup.com/ce Cooking-energy transition in Nepal: trend review Dipti Paudel1, Marc Jeuland2,3 and Sunil Prasad Lohani1* Department of Mechanical Engineering, School of Engineering, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Nepal Sanford School of Public Policy and Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University Durham, USA 3 RWI-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, Essen, Germany 1 2 *Corresponding author. E-mail: splohani@ku.edu.np Abstract Clean-cooking energy is key to meeting climate-mitigation goals and a range of development objectives, especially for improving the well-being of women and children. Inefficient burning of solid biomass for cooking releases household air pollution that is hazardous to health, while putting pressure on forest resources. This paper provides an overview of the household-cooking-energy transition in Nepal to date. Despite numerous efforts by the government and other actors to speed this transition, energy data spanning the years 2000–18 reveal that ~69% of households nationwide still rely on solid fuels for cooking today. The proportion of solid-fuel users is especially high in rural regions, reaching >80%. Moreover, if the current rate of progress is not accelerated, the use of solid fuels will remain high even in 2030, preventing the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. Cooking-fuel choices are heavily constrained by accessibility, demographic and socio-economic factors. Thus, this paper recommends that evidence-based and integrated policies and strategies be urgently deployed to foster a more effective and rapid transition towards clean energy, which is critical to achieving SDG 7. Graphical Abstract Household energy transition in Nepal 2030 SDG 7 energy access target: 100% clean energy to all 69% population primarily rely on solid fuels for cooking About 18 000 premature deaths attributed to HAP: women and children at especially high risk Adverse impacts on environment and economic development % solid fuel use 2020 status SDG target 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Keywords: solid fuel; clean energy; SDG; urban; rural; household Received: 3 September 2020; Accepted: 28 October 2020 © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Institute of Clean-and-Low-Carbon Energy This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com 1 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 Review Article 2 | Clean Energy, 2020, Vol. XX, No. XX Introduction 1 Among these 3.8 million deaths, 27% are due to pneumonia, 18% due to stroke, 27% due to ischaemic heart disease, 20% due to COPD and 8% due to lung cancer. Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 Clean energy is critically important for economic, social and sustainable growth. Appropriate energy choices are paramount, since energy decisions influence Earth’s natural ecosystem and its inhabitants. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 aims to achieve universal access to affordable reliable and modern energy services by 2030 [1]. And, although rapid advancements have occurred in the development of more affordable and clean-energy technologies in the recent past, nearly 3 billion people in the world still primarily rely on inefficient and polluting cooking systems [2]. A combination of traditional and polluting energy sources is used by households worldwide, such as dung, agricultural residues and fuelwood. Use of certain commercial fuels—termed as intermediate (namely charcoal and kerosene)—also generates substantial household air pollution (HAP), while the use of those deemed modern (such as liquid petroleum gas (LPG), biogas, ethanol gel, dimethyl ether (DME) and electricity) does not [3]. This problem is acute in developing countries in Asia, which are home to 65% of the global population (or 1.7 billion people) who lack access to clean fuels [4]). The energyconsumption mix of Nepal reflects this dominance of traditional fuels, which comprised 68.6% of the country’s energy consumption in 2018–19 [5]. The residential sector (space heating, cooking, lighting) accounted for 42.6% of the total energy consumption in 2018–19 and 69% of the country’s population relies on solid biomass for cooking [5]. Improved cooking stoves (ICS), LPG and biogas technologies are among the technologies being deployed to reduce this dependence, whereas electricity and solar cooking technologies remain uncommonly used [6]. In Nepal, the outcomes of unplanned biomass harvesting and the associated inefficient energy conversion of combusting such sources are serious concerns because they lead to adverse impacts on the environment, health and overall socio-economic development. Incomplete combustion of solid fuel releases a diverse mixture of particulate and gaseous species, including carcinogenic pollutants that include benzene, formaldehyde, 1,3-butadiene and styrene [7, 8]. The burning of solid fuels is also a global-warming threat by releasing black carbon (BC), a highly potent short-term climate-forcing agent. The domestic combustion of solid fuels is estimated to be responsible for ~34% of total global BC emissions [9, 10]. A recent rural study from southern Nepal found that 80% of BC emissions from biomass cookstoves escaped into ambient air [11]. Moreover, unsustainable wood extraction for fuelwoods is a major driver of deforestation, soil degradation and erosion [12]. There is substantial evidence from both global and Nepal-specific studies that long- and short-term exposures to high levels of HAP damage health. These burdens are especially concentrated among the women and children in low- and middle-income countries who spend most of their time in close proximity to polluting cookstoves and household fuels. The World Health Organization estimates that, globally, 3.8 million premature deaths can be attributed to HAP [13].1 In Nepal, HAP accounts for >18 000 such deaths [14]. More specifically, particulates released by burning solid fuels account for 45% of all global deaths from pneumonia among children under the age of 5 years and 28% of all adult pneumonia deaths [13]. Consistently with this disproportionate burden on young children, in Nepal, acute lower respiratory infection is a major cause of infant mortality [15]. Over the longer term, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease, stroke and other illnesses are linked to higher exposures to HAP, globally and in Nepal [8, 13, 16]. Studies have also documented strong correlations between the use of solid fuel and health issues such as eye irritation, cataracts, tuberculosis, dizziness, menstrual problems and headache [17,18]. In addition, exposure to CO reduces the oxygen-carrying capacity of blood during pregnancy and can retard the growth of fetuses, resulting in intergenerational damage [8]. Expanding clean cooking could therefore help in achieving a range of goals: reducing deforestation and forest degradation, reducing emissions of major climateforcing agents including greenhouse gases and short-lived climate pollutants, and improving health and household productivity. Yet, prior attempts to improve cooking have shown relatively slow progress globally [4]. The development of proper plans and policies requires detailed understanding of cooking-fuel-usage patterns among households, the impacts of using dirty fuels and the confluence of factors that influence households’ fuel choices. This paper contributes to addressing this planning process in multiple ways. First, we supplement the limited literature on cooking-fuel-usage trends in Nepal. Behera et al. (2015) previously discussed the Nepali cooking-fuel transition, but relied on evidence from a single district [19]. A much older study analysed cooking-fuel usage in eight countries including Nepal, but the large set of countries analysed makes it challenging to extract the insights most relevant to the Nepali context [20]. Giri and Goswami bridge this gap with a specific focus on energy scenarios in Nepal, but their work is based on a limited time period (2010–11) [21]. This paper therefore widens the scope of prior work by incorporating household data spanning the range from 2000 to 2018, and considering cooking-fuelusage patterns in both rural and urban regions. Second, we review the factors affecting cooking-fuel choices in Nepal and discuss a projection of cooking-fuel usage in Nepal for the year 2030. The goal of such projections is to help policymakers to understand the extent to which additional policy intervention may be necessary if the energy-access SDGs are to be achieved. Paudel et al. | 1 Factors affecting cooking-energy choices quintiles, somewhat higher in the fourth and substantially higher in the fifth [21]. Others, however, question the accuracy of this model, which they say is largely an artefact of the lack of tracking of multiple fuels by many surveys, since different fuels and technologies support somewhat different cooking preparations [31]. Such critiques notwithstanding, costs and income remain important drivers of fuel choices. A cylinder of LPG cost Nepalese Rupee (NRs) 1375 (12 USD)2 in Nepal as of mid-2020 and, considering that this quantity is sufficient for 30–60 days for a small family of four, such a household would spend NRs 8250 (69 USD) per year on LPG [32]. Other improved fuels also come with substantial costs: a typical biogas plant with a service time of 15 years, for example, costs NRs 30 000–40 000 (252–336 USD) after subsidies and the annual cost for a household is thus about NRs 2700 (23 USD)—about three times lower than the cost of LPG. Given that the per-capita income in 2018 was only NRs 103 335 [33], the installation cost of a biogas plant is considerable. Finally, regarding electricity, per-unit costs in Nepal are higher than in many other South Asian countries [25], which discourages households from adopting it for cooking uses. Some have noted that electricity is actually a cheaper cooking fuel than LPG [34], but that its supply is unreliable and that households perceive it to be higher in cost. Female household members are mostly responsible for cookingenergy usage in developing countries. They play an important role in collecting and choosing fuels at low-income levels [35]. Education among household members also has a positive link with the household’s willingness to choose clean and efficient energy fuels [36]. With more education among household members, there are better employment opportunities, improved economic statuses of families and awareness about clean-cooking fuel that assist them in upgrading to cleaner and healthier methods of energy usage. One study from Nepal reveals that the probability of solid-fuel consumption (firewood particularly) is reduced by 4% among households with literate household heads [37]. Plans and policies implemented by the government also play a vital role in the energy choices of households. For the sustainable development of a country, it is important to adopt clean-cooking techniques. 2 Cooking-energy-usage pattern in Nepal Summaries of statistics related to cooking fuel, drawing on the 2001 and 2011 Census rounds, are provided in Tables 1 and 2, respectively. In 2001, more than three-quarters of the country’s population relied primarily on solid fuels for cooking fuel. Among these solid-fuel users, two out of three relied on firewood as the primary cooking fuel. Only 7.7% of households were found to be using LPG as a primary source for cooking at that time. The percentage of solid-fuel 2 1 USD equals NRs 119 (exchange rate July 2020). Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 A variety of demographic factors, accessibility and socio-economic conditions play a role in the choice of cooking fuel among households [22–24]. A study representing all three ecological belts of Nepal revealed that household size and livestock ownership, which influence both the supply (via dung production and effects on fuel harvesting) and demand (cooking requirements for people and animals), influence cooking-fuel choices [25]. In cold regions, the burning of firewood in a cooking stove helps to keep homes warm and is thus another factor encouraging the continued household preference for firewood. The same study also documented that households with a biogas connection had 48% lower firewood dependence, while access to LPG and a gas stove reduced firewood use by 26% [25]. With the increased quality and convenience of clean-cooking fuel, however, households that choose improved technology may face higher costs. Thus, low-income families often prefer firewood, dung and crop residue; middle-income families often stack or combine solid fuels, biogas and LPG; whereas high-income households that are less constrained by affordability prefer using LPG and electricity [19]. Economic data on fuels reveal that LPG use costs >10 times the amount that typical households spend on an amount of firewood with equivalent useful thermal energy in Nepal [26]. This is largely because firewood is usually collected from common resources for which access is free of financial costs, although this does not account for the significant opportunity cost of time spent in the harvesting of firewood [27]. Electricity and LPG, the dominant fuels used by the rich, are both clean to use and highly controllable in terms of output to perform different cooking tasks, but they face their own supply challenges. LPG, for example, is bulky to transport, involves high installation costs and is not easily accessible in areas with a restricted infrastructure. Likewise, unreliable distribution networks, the high initial cost of electric cooking appliances, restrictive tariff structures and a lack of awareness among people appear as challenges impeding the wider use of electricity for cooking purposes [28]. Firewood, crop residue and dung do not come with these affordability and infrastructure barriers. Given the prior observations linking income to fuel choices, prior authors have conceptualized the fuel transition using the notion of the energy ladder [29, 30]. According to this model, crop residues, animal waste and firewood lie at the bottom; kerosene, biogas and charcoal in the middle; and electricity and LPG are at the top. Cost barriers—for fuel and equipment—increase as one climbs the ladder. In Nepal, Giri and Goswami [21] observed a dominance of biomass as the primary cooking-fuel source in low-income countries up to the fourth quintile versus minimal use of that source in the fifth quintile; primary reliance on LPG was meanwhile low in the bottom three 3 4 | Clean Energy, 2020, Vol. XX, No. XX Table 1: Distribution of households by various sources of fuel used for cooking by regions, Nepal, 2001 [38] Table 2: Distribution of households by various sources of fuel used for cooking by regions, Nepal, 2011 [39] Source of fuel used for cooking in percentage Source of fuel used for cooking in percentage Area Wood LPG Biogas Cow dung 13.7 7.7 1.7 10.1 34.1 9.8 27.3 4.0 1.8 1.7 2.5 11.5 3.2 16.0 12.8 0.4 8.9 7.7 0.1 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 21.5 users in rural areas was somewhat higher, at ~84%, and only 5.7% of such households were primarily using cleancooking fuels (LPG or biogas). In urban areas, kerosene was the most common primary cooking fuel, with ~34% of total households using it, followed by firewood (33% of users) and LPG (27%). The census data also reveal important regional differences: the population of the mountain region, for example, relied much more heavily on firewood as the primary fuel for cooking, at close to 96% (compared to 72% of households in hills and 55% in the Terai (the low-lying land at the foot of the Himalayas), where cow dung was an important additional solid fuel). Less than 1% of households primarily used clean-cooking fuels in the mountain region, compared to 11% and 9% in the hills and the Terai, respectively. Electricity use for cooking was negligible at the time. By 2011, the share of solid-fuel users had barely declined and about two-thirds of the country’s population were still primarily reliant on firewood for cooking (Table 2). A total of 74% of households were still the primary users of solid fuels overall and this fraction rose to 86% in rural areas. The share of users of clean fuels had risen to ~23%, although largely due to a shift in urban areas away from kerosene and towards LPG. Thus, in urban areas, only 27% were primarily reliant on solid fuels for cooking and ~70% of households used clean-cooking fuels. A disaggregation across ecological belts similar to that conducted above reveals that 95% of households in mountain regions still relied on solid fuels for cooking, versus 67% in the hills and 78.6% in the Terai regions. A graphical comparison of primary clean and solid-fuel usage in urban and rural Nepal at these 10-year intervals is presented in Figs 1 and 2. The comparison reveals that there has been progress in the usage of clean fuels in both urban and rural areas, but the change is much more significant in urban regions, where the increase has exceeded >40 percentage points. The usage of solid fuels has stayed nearly constant in rural regions and overall. Unpacking this somewhat more primary usage of LPG has increased in both rural and urban areas, as kerosene has nearly been replaced by this fuel. Throughout the country, the Area Cow Wood Kerosene LPG dung Biogas Electricity Total 64 Place of residence Urban 25.7 Rural 73.1 Ecological belt Mountain 94.8 Hill 67 Terai 56.5 1 21 10.4 2.4 0.1 2 0.8 67.7 1.5 9.9 12.5 1.8 0.1 2.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 1 3.1 0.4 29.4 0.1 15.2 22.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 0.1 3.5 0.1 percentage increase in LPG use was ~13.3% and this occurred alongside a decrease in the primary use of kerosene of 12.7%. The sharp decrease in the use of kerosene is likely attributable to the penetration and greater availability of LPG, as well as its convenience, safety and emissions advantages over kerosene, especially in urban regions. Also, the equalization of kerosene and diesel prices as set by Nepal Oil Coroporation in 2008 caused an increase in the price of kerosene, which may have encouraged households to abandon kerosene as a cooking fuel in favor of the relatively cleaner and more consistently burning LPG alternative. The negligible transition towards clean cooking observed in mountain regions may be due to the low availability and high transportation cost of clean-cooking fuels such as LPG resulting from the complicated geographical structure and difficult terrain of this region. The heat provided by hot flue gases from the burning of firewood in these colder climates is another reason behind the preference for fuelwood in such areas. Developing alternative heating techniques that better pair with clean-cookingenergy sources seems important to reduce this high reliance on firewood. In comparison, the hilly region and Terai have seen a more substantial increase in the use of LPG; these areas have experienced improved accessibility over this period with the rapid development of the road infrastructure and improved awareness of modern fuels due to educational and communications improvements over the period. Further improvements in accessibility and efforts to raise awareness about the value of energy transitions remain vital, however, as large fractions of the populations in all zones still face obstacles in obtaining clean fuels. Overall, the variation in clean-energy access among rural and urban regions reflects a range of affordability, awareness and accessibility challenges that help to explain why clean-cooking access remains low in Nepal, especially in rural regions. To extend beyond 2011 and the last census, we can analyse trends as obtained from the Annual Household Survey of Nepal from 2012 to 2017 (Figs 3 and 4). These figures reveal substantial variation over time, suggesting Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 Total 66.2 Place of residence Urban 33.2 Rural 72.4 Ecological belt Mountain 95.5 Hill 72.3 Terai 55.6 Kerosene Paudel et al. | 90 % users in urban region 70 60 50 40 30 20 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 Year Total Rural 2001 Urban Solid Clean Fig. 3: Fuel-usage pattern in urban households of Nepal [42–46] 2011 Fig. 1: Urban and rural households using clean fuels in the years 2001 and 2011 [38, 39] 90 % households using sold fuel 80 80 70 60 50 40 30 higher, fourth and fifth quintile groups, while the first three quintile groups (poor) primarily use solid fuels for cooking. Electricity use for cooking purposes remains surprisingly low. And, although a recent survey conducted by the World Bank in Nepal reveals that 95 out of 100 households in Nepal have access to electricity, only 72% have reliable, affordable and uninterrupted supply for a significant part of the day. Even at this relatively high level and quality of electricity access, households rarely consider it to be a viable energy source for cooking [41]. 20 10 0 Total Rural 2001 Urban 2011 Fig. 2: Urban and rural households using solid fuels in the years 2001 and 2011 [38, 39] that the usage of clean fuel (mostly LPG) in urban areas rose from 72% to 80% between 2012 and 2014, but then decreased suddenly in 2015 and levelled off at ~58% in 2016–17. Trends in solid fuel mirror the change in LPG and show a rise to nearly 42% in 2016–17. This recent trend is concerning, but can largely be explained by several unfortunate events and policies. First, a large earthquake (measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale) devastated the country in April 2015 and disrupted supply chains and road infrastructure. Second, this event was followed by an unofficial import blockade along the country’s south border with India, which created an extreme shortage of LPG and forced people to switch back to primary reliance on solid fuels, mostly firewood [40]. The trend for rural areas, where households were only primarily using clean fuels at low levels, did not change substantially. Indeed, >80% of households relied primarily on solid fuels throughout the period, although a modest increase to a peak of 89% occurred in 2015–16. Disaggregating these results further, LPG usage is found to be dominant in the 3 Clean-cooking efforts through policies and legal frameworks Government, national and international communities, local bodies and stakeholders have all made multiple efforts to help Nepali households to transition towards clean fuels and cooking technologies, dating back to the 1950s. For the safer and healthier use of biomass, ICS were first introduced in the 1950s and the dissemination of biogas began in the 1980s. To ensure the promotion and development of sustainable energy, Nepal joined the UN Secretary General’s Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative in 2012, targeting the provision of clean energy to all by 2030. The National Planning Commission, acting as a focal point for the initiative, formulated action plans to achieve the SE4ALL goal. Complementing the SE4ALL intiative, in 2013, the Nepal government developed a national goal to provide Clean Cooking Solutions for All (CCS4ALL) by 2017 [33]. Concerning legislation, Part 4 of Article 51 of the Consitution of Nepal (2015) states that the government will adopt policies regarding the protection, promotion and use of natural resources to guarantee appropriate, affordable and sustainable energy to citizens [47]. Various relevant policies and strategies include the Renewable Energy Subsidy Policy (2000), Rural Energy Policy (2006), National Energy Strategy (2013), Forest Policy (2015), Renewable Energy Subsidy Policy (2016), Biomass Energy Strategy Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 % households using clean fuel 80 0 5 6 | Clean Energy, 2020, Vol. XX, No. XX 90 % users in rural region 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 0 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 Year Solid Clean Fig. 4: Fuel-usage pattern of rural households of Nepal [42–46] (2017) and National Energy Efficiency Strategy (2018). All of these have elements that seek to support the promotion of clean and renewable-energy (RE) technologies including for cooking, raising awareness, providing adoption subsidies and establishing more effective policy frameworks. More specifically, the Rural Energy Policy of 2006 focuses on providing clean and affordable energy sources to rural areas and protecting the environment by reducing dependency on biomass. The Forest Policy of 2015 has as its primary motive to increase afforestation and also devotes attention to the need for financial and technical support for households to aid their use of alternative energy including biogas, bio-briquettes and ICS. The Renewable Energy Subsidy Policy was first approved and implemented in 2000 through the Alternative Energy Promotion Centre. It was reviewed and amended four times until the latest version from 2016. The Renewable Energy Subsidy Policy prioritizes the use of the best available technology and promotes affordability by reducing upfront adoption costs through subsidies to increase the access, use and promotion of RE technologies including ICS. The Biomass Energy Strategy 2017 meanwhile promotes biomass energy as a reliable, affordable and sustainable energy source to address increasing energy demand in Nepal. It aims to raise public awareness, develop markets and support technology dissemination that make more efficient use of biomass. Given that the CCS4ALL was not successful in achieving universal access by 2017, in part owing to the effects of the devastating earthquake of 2015, the Biomass Energy Strategy of 2017 envisaged attaining the CCS4ALL objective by 2022 [48]. Finally, the National Energy Efficiency Strategy of 2018 sets specific targets that aim to double the energyefficiency-improvement rate to 1.68% per year up to 2030 through policies, legal frameworks and specific promotion programmes. Reflecting these various policies, the Nepal Government’s Budget has included substantial resources for RE promotion, protecting the environment and increasing clean household-energy access. In addition, a ‘White Paper on Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 10 Energy, Water, and Irrigation: Present Situation and Future Prospect’ was released by the Ministry of Energy and Water resources in 2018 and sets a target of increasing household electricity usage to 700 and 1500 kWh in 5 and 10 years, respectively, and placing electric cookstoves in all households by 2030 [49]. With the help of these policies, legal frameworks and other developmental programmes, Nepal has been seeking to spur the adoption of LPG, biogas, electricity and biomass-burning ICS, but the principal policy mechanism to do so has been biogas and ICS subsidy. Biogas is seen as most relevant for rural regions. Fig. 5 depicts the cumulative number of installed biogas plants and ICS disseminated in Nepal since 2004 and shows that >300 000 biogas plants and 1 million ICS have been installed over this period. This escalation in the number of biogas plants and ICS suggests that the RE-subsidy policy has been instrumental in increasing access to clean cooking fuel by improving the affordability of this technology in Nepal [50, 51]. However, in the absence of precise data pinpointing the number of functional biogas plants among the total installed plants (especially after the destructive earthquake of 2015), it is difficult to assess whether this technology has been sustainable; indeed, the percentage share of primary users of biogas (see Table 2) implies considerably lower sustained use than these adoption numbers would suggest. A comparison of the evolution in GDP per capita and in access to clean cooking as shown in Figs. 6 and 7 reveals a puzzle. Between 2000 and 2006, the average growth in GDP per capita of Nepal was ~7.2%, while the average annual percentage increase in access to clean cooking and technologies was 4.1%. After 2006, governmental policies and strategies to facilitate clean cooking were increasingly implemented and, on top of this, the average percentage increase in GDP in Nepal was 8.8%, but the increase in access to clean cooking slowed somewhat, to 3.8%. One would expect that the implementation of policies and strategies to facilitate clean energy and a more rapid increase in GDP per capita would have accelerated the pace of increased access to clean cooking, but this was not the case. Though correlational, this evidence suggests that the policies and strategies adopted to increase access to clean cooking energy are falling short. This appears especially true among the lower three income quintiles of the population (Fig. 8). To be sure, affordability of clean fuels would have increased in this period due to rising incomes, but many households remain highly incomeconstrained. Well-researched and evidence-based policies and interventions therefore appear essential if Nepal’s energy-access goals are to be met. Supportive policies should especially enhance the resilience of supply chains for clean fuels and help those in poor and rural locations to adopt better technology; such interventions are all the more important given the setbacks experienced following the earthquake of 2015. 7 1210 000 1060 000 910 000 760 000 610 000 460 000 310 000 160 000 10 000 2004 2006 2008 2010 Biogas plant 2012 Year 2014 2016 2018 Improved cooking stoves 1200 35 1000 30 % access to clean fules and technologies GDP per capita Fig. 5: Total number of biogas plants and ICS installed in Nepal [50, 51] 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Fig. 6: Change in GDP per capita in Nepal [52] 4 Cooking-energy-usage trends Given the observed decrease in the usage of kerosene and biomass as seen in current cooking trends, we can expect that these fuels will continue to decline. Yet, current trends show that this progress is slow and therefore point to a strong need for interventions that spur the transition to clean-cooking fuel if the SDG 7 of universal access to clean fuel by 2030 is to be achieved. The slow progress is especially evident among the bottom three income quintiles, who also tend to be more rural and face particular affordability and supply-chain challenges in accessing clean fuels. Integrated rural and humandevelopment policies that raise incomes, awareness and aspirations, and more tailored policies that support clean-energy technologies will thus be necessary to accelerate the slow overall rate of progress. These policies should address the multidimensional aspects of access and solutions, and should be based on regional context and geography, as well as inclusive and gender-sensitive discussions with local stakeholders. Complementary solutions like electricity coupled with biogas and LPG, or solar with biogas and biomass ICS, and improved technology-financing schemes and incentives (tax and subsidies) could further encourage the shift towards clean cooking. 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Fig. 7: Percentage access to clean cooking fuels in Nepal [53] 5 Conclusion Using solid fuels harms health and the environment. Together with accessibility, socio-economic and demographic aspects and preferences for household heating have played a vital role in determining energy choices in Nepal. Comparing energy-usage data throughout the study period (2001–16) reveals that solid fuels had remained the dominant choice of cooking fuel in the country, in spite of numerous efforts to spur the adoption of clean solutions. This dependency on biomass is even greater in rural regions. In fact, throughout the period of analysis, the greatest changes have been in the use of kerosene, which decreased significantly to negligible levels owing to its successful replacement by LPG and to the increase in the relative price of kerosene. Electricity as a cooking-energy choice remains unimportant, despite high rates of access to electricity and abundant hydropower-generation options. Concerning who adopts clean fuels, we noted that primary LPG usage is high especially among the fifth income quintile, though the trend in access is strongly positive also for the fourth quartile. The first three quintile groups still heavily rely on solid fuels for cooking, however, and are making progress at much lower rates, such that the overall transition to clean cooking has been slow. Given this slow Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/ce/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ce/zkaa022/6041498 by guest on 22 December 2020 Cumulative number of installations Paudel et al. | 8 | Clean Energy, 2020, Vol. XX, No. XX 100 90 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year First Second Third Fourth Fifth Fig. 8: Percentage solid-fuel usage by different quintiles in Nepal [42–46] transition thus far, it is clear that evidence-based policies must be formulated, implemented and further evaluated to support an accelerated leap towards clean cooking, in order to achieve SDG 7 and its myriad social benefits. Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge EnergizeNepal Project for financial support (ENEP-RENP-II-18-01). Conflict of Interest None declared References [1] Sustainable Development Goals, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. https://sdgs.un.org/goals/ goal7 (24 January 2020, date last accessed). [2] Economic and Social Council. 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