Weaponeering:
Conventional Weapon
System Effectiveness
Second Edition
Morris R. Driels
U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey California
AIAA EDUCATION SERIES
Joseph A. Schetz, Editor-in-Chief
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Blacksburg, Virginia
Published by the
American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.
1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Virginia 20191-4344
00_Drielsr_FM.3d iii
CONTENTS
Preface
xxiii
Acknowledgments
xxix
Nomenclature
xxxi
PART 1
Chapter 1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Overview of Weaponeering and Weapon Effectiveness
1
Definitions
Example of a Weaponeering Outcome: Air Tasking Order
Weaponeering—Part of a Larger Planning Cycle
An Example of a Weaponeering Tool
Basic Components Needed to Compute Effectiveness
Effectiveness Calculation Methodology
Implementing a Methodology into a Model
1
1
2
6
8
25
26
Chapter 2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12
2.13
2.14
2.15
00_Drielsr_FM.3d ix
BASIC TOOLS AND METHODS
Introduction to Statistical Methods
29
Why Are Statistics Needed?
Population and Sample
Univariate Distribution
Univariate Normal Distribution
Bivariate Normal Distribution
Probability
Circular Normal and Rayleigh Distributions
Uniform Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Mott and Weibull Distributions
Poisson Distribution
Testing Data for a Particular Distribution
Functions of Random Variables
Mathematical Expectation
Monte Carlo Simulations
29
30
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64
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
2.16 Generating Random Numbers from the Cumulative
Distribution Function
2.17 Confidence Levels, Limits, and Intervals
2.18 Required Number of Monte Carlo Iterations
Chapter 3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.13
3.14
3.15
3.16
3.17
3.18
Introduction
Initial Release or Firing Velocities
Zero-Drag, Point Mass Model
Characterization of Air Resistance
Trajectory in a Standard Atmosphere
Linear Drag, Point Mass Model
High-Fidelity Point Mass Model
General Stability of Projectiles
Spin-Stabilized Projectiles—Gyroscopic Effects
Other Characteristics of Spinning Projectiles
Effects of Wind on Ballistic Trajectory
Modified Point Mass Model
Using Trajectory Models in Fire Control Systems (FCS)
Artillery Firing Tables
Trajectory for Guided Weapons and Munitions
Ballistic Partial/Unit Effects from Trajectory Programs
Air-Launched Loft and Dive Toss Deliveries
Fuze Models
Chapter 4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
00_Drielsr_FM.3d x
Weapon Trajectory
Delivery Accuracy—Overview
Introduction
General Measures of Accuracy
Vertical Errors
Commonly Used Equations Based on Normal Data
Noncircular Distributions
Accuracy Measures Including a Bias
Accuracy in the Normal Plane
Definitions of the Angular Mil
Converting Between Ground and Normal Plane
Accuracy Values
Treatment of Precision Errors in the Normal Plane
Accuracy of Air-Launched Unguided Weapons
Accuracy of Air-Launched Guided Weapons
Bivariate Analysis of Air-Launched Guided
Weapon Data
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Contents
4.14 CEP for Nonnormal Miss Distance Distributions
4.15 Generating Random Miss Distances for PHIT/PNM
Distributions
4.16 Accuracy Mixture Models
4.17 Accuracy of Surface-Launched, Unguided Weapons
4.18 Accuracy of Surface-Launched Guided Weapons
4.19 General Approach to Accuracy Modeling—
Error Budgets
4.20 Treatment of Vertical Errors
4.21 Spherical Errors (SEP)
Chapter 5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
5.11
5.12
Introduction
Mechanization
Sign Conventions and Definitions
CCRP Mechanization
CCRP Modes
Computation of Miss Distances for CCRP
Mechanization
Accumulation of Individual Miss Distances for CCRP
CCIP Mechanization
CCIP Modes
Computation of Miss Distances for CCIP
Bombing on Coordinates Mechanization
Summary
Chapter 6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.10
Accuracy of Air-Launched Unguided Weapons
Accuracy of Surface-Launched Unguided Munitions
Introduction
Meterological (MET) Messages
Precision Error Model
MPI Error Model
MPI Errors for Observer Adjusted Fire
MPI Errors for Predicted Fire
MPI Errors for Registration/Transfer Adjusted Fire
MPI Errors for MET þ VE Adjusted Fire
MPI Error for Range K Adjusted Fire
Example
Chapter 7
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243
Accuracy of GPS/INS Guided Munitions
249
7.1 Overview of the Global Positioning System
7.2 Determining Position with No Errors Present
249
250
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
7.10
7.11
7.12
7.13
7.14
7.15
7.16
Pseudorange and Clock Errors
User Position from Four Satellite Pseudoranges
User Position from More Than Four Satellites
User Position in Geodetic and Local Coordinates
Accuracy of GPS Measured Locations
GPS Error Budgets
Differential GPS
GPS/INS Guided Munitions
Combining Vertical Errors into Equivalent Ground
Plane Errors
Targeting Modes
INS Only Guidance—GPS Jamming
Low-Level Wind (LLW) Effects
Nonplanar Trajectories
Spreadsheets to Compute GPS Accuracy
Chapter 8
Vulnerability Assessment—Introductory Methods
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Introduction to Effectiveness Indices
8.3 Requirements for the Computation of
Effectiveness Indices
8.4 Collecting and Characterizing Warhead
Fragment Data
8.5 Compartment vs Component Vulnerability
8.6 Vulnerability Assessment for Fragmentation
Warheads
8.7 Vulnerable Area
8.8 Critical and Noncritical Components
8.9 Redundant and Nonredundant Critical Components
8.10 Target Vulnerability to Single Fragments
8.11 CASE a: Target Composed of Nonredundant Critical
Components with No Overlap
8.12 CASE b: Target Composed of Nonredundant Critical
Components That Overlap
8.13 CASE c: Target Composed of Some Redundant
Critical Components with No Overlap
8.14 CASE d: Target Composed of Some Redundant
Critical Components That Overlap
8.15 Multiple Hit Vulnerability
8.16 Effectiveness Assessment for a Specific Weapon
8.17 Centroid of Vulnerability and Different
Fragment Weights
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xii
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306
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311
Contents
8.18 Damage Matrix and Lethal Area
8.19 Vulnerability Assessment for Blast Warheads
Chapter 9
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
9.10
9.11
9.12
9.13
9.14
9.15
9.16
9.17
9.18
9.19
9.20
9.21
9.22
9.23
9.24
9.25
9.26
9.27
Vulnerability Assessment—Advanced Methods
Introduction
Computation of Vulnerable Areas (COVART)
Shotline Anaysis
Penetration Equations
Calculating the Shotline Pk/sh
COVART Computational Model for Calculating
Vulnerable Areas
Advanced Joint Effectiveness Model (AJEM)
Modular UNIX Based Vulnerability Suite (MUVES)
Effectiveness Assessment: Computing the
Damage Matrix
Detailed Description of the General Full Spray
Materiel Model (GFSM)
Orientation of Weapon in GFSM Scenario
GFSM Target Description
GFSM Warhead Description
GFSM Fragment Drag Data
GFSM Fragmentation Zones
Fragment Velocity/Maximum Effective Range
GFSM Computation of PK
GFSM Calculation of PK(r, gj)
Review of Computational Procedure
Worked Problem for GFSM Methodology
Computation of the PK Matrix
Joint Mean Area of Effects Model (JMAE)
Simplification of Damage Matrix
Conserving Lethality for Different Damage Functions
Lethal Area Calculation for Targets Sensitive to Blast
Combining Lethal Area Matrices—AVMAT Program
Vulnerability Assessment for Shaped Charge and
Penetrating Rod Warheads
Chapter 10 Basic Effectiveness Calculations
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xiii
Introduction
Basic Approach to Effectiveness Calculation
Interpretation of the Weapon Lethal Area
Using Other Damage Functions
313
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317
317
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
10.5 Dependent and Independent Fire
10.6 Combining Round-to-Round Errors with
Damage Functions
10.7 Conclusions
PART 2
399
404
INTRODUCTORY AIR-TO-SURFACE
WEAPONEERING
Chapter 11 Single Weapons Against Unitary Targets
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Probability of Damage from One Unguided
Weapon and Unitary Target—PD1
11.3 PD1 for Single Fragmentation Warhead and
Unitary Target
11.4 Comparing Expected Value with Monte
Carlo Simulation
11.5 PD1 for Blast/Rectangular Damage Function
and Unitary Target
11.6 Some Computational Considerations
11.7 Force Estimation
11.8 Simple Spreadsheet Implementation to Compute PD1
11.9 Template for Implementing Weaponeering Solutions
11.10 Calculating PD1 for Guided Weapons
11.11 Bomb Burial
11.12 Comparison of Analytical Effectiveness
Methodologies
11.13 Comparing Circular and Rectangular Cookie-Cutter
Damage Functions
Chapter 12 Single Weapons Directed Against an
Area of Targets
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Measurement of Damage
12.3 Weapon Represented by Rectangular
Damage Function
12.4 Effect of Multiple Weapons and Aimpoints
12.5 Fractional Coverage
12.6 Spreadsheet to Compute FD1
12.7 Weaponeering Spreadsheet
12.8 Calculating FD1 for Guided Weapons
12.9 Weapon Represented by Carlton Damage Function
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xiv
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427
428
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438
439
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450
450
454
455
Contents
Chapter 13 Stick Deliveries
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
13.10
Introduction
Determining the Pattern Dimensions
Calculating the Stick Width
Calculating Stick Length
Precision Errors for Stick Deliveries
Pattern Dimensions
Weapon Sparsity and Overlap in the Pattern
Summary of Computing Fractional Damage for Sticks
Spreadsheet Implementation
Advanced Method for Calculating
Fractional Damage
13.11 Effect on FD of Different Multiple Weapon
Representations
Chapter 14 Projectiles
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
14.10
14.11
14.12
14.13
Introduction
Simplified Projectile Methodology
Accuracy Considerations
Damage Functions
Effectiveness Calculations
PD When More Than One Round Is
Required for a Kill
Spreadsheet Implementation
Gunnery Model with Correlation – Aimpoint
Wander
Round-to-Round Correlation
Generating Correlated Impact Points
Correlation Coefficients
Effectiveness Calculations with Correlation
Effectiveness for Penetrating Munitions
Chapter 15 Cluster Munitions
15.1
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.7
15.8
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xv
Introduction
General Analytical Treatment of Cluster Munitions
Trajectory Computations
Submunition Pattern Dimensions
Rectangular Patterns in the Ground Plane
Circular Patterns in the Normal Plane
Effect of Precision Error
Spreadsheet Implementation
461
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463
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
Chapter 16 Weaponeering for Specific Targets Using
Effectiveness Indices
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4
16.5
16.6
Introduction
Bridges
Effective Miss Distance Damage Function
Above Ground Buildings
Indirect Aimpoints
Summary of Weaponeering Methodologies
and Locator
PART 3
17.9
17.10
17.11
17.12
17.13
17.14
17.15
17.16
17.17
17.18
17.19
17.20
17.21
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xvi
527
531
535
542
548
558
INTRODUCTORY SURFACE-TO-SURFACE
WEAPONEERING
Chapter 17 Indirect Fire—Artillery and Mortar Systems
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.4
17.5
17.6
17.7
17.8
527
Introduction
Terminology and Combat Scenarios
Aimpoint Selection
Weapon Lethal Area
Delivery Accuracy
Munition Trajectory
Naval Gunfire
Comparing Sequential Dependent or
Independent Events
Methodologies for Surface-to-Surface
Weaponeering Tools
Superquickie 2, Unitary Warhead
Superquickie 2, Improved Conventional Munition
High-Fidelity Model—Matrix Evaluator Program
Fractional Damage Calculations for
Multiple Events
Improved Conventional Munitions
(ICM) in Matrix Evaluator
Matrix Evaluator V2.0
ARTQUIK Method
Damage Done by a Single Weapon with an
Offset Aimpoint
Combining the Damage Function with
Precision Error
Defining the Volley Damage Grid
ARTQUIK Model for Improved Conventional Munitions
Summary of Model Features
561
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568
570
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572
578
579
586
588
596
597
599
605
606
608
609
612
614
Contents
Chapter 18 Direct Fire: Infantry, Vehicles, and Small Boats
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Direct Fire Against Personnel Targets (FBAR)
18.3 Direct Fire Against Vehicles—Passive Vehicle
Target Model (PVTM)
18.4 Naval Direct Fire Systems (JGEM)
Chapter 19 Mines
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.5
19.6
19.7
19.8
19.9
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Review of Weaponeering Methodologies
Prior to WWII
20.3 Variable Time and Proximity Fuze
20.4 Review of Weaponeering Methodologies
After WWII
20.5 Further Work of John Von Neumann
20.6 Roger Snow (with Ryan, Harris, and Lind)
20.7 Salvo Formula
20.8 Fendrikov and Yakovlev
20.9 U.S. Organizational History
Chapter 21 Personnel Targets
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xvii
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630
647
647
649
651
654
659
660
661
666
ADVANCED WEAPONEERING
Chapter 20 Historical Review of Weapon Effects Methods
21.1
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.5
21.6
617
618
647
Introduction
Land Mines
Land Minefield Specification and Planning
Simplified Land Mine Method—Minefield Density
Detailed Land Mine Method
Sea Mines
Shallow Water Sea Mines
Deep Water Sea Mines
Antisubmarine Mines
PART 4
617
Introduction
Casualty Criteria
Wound Ballistics
Computer Man Program
Computer Man Injury Assessment
Computer Man Shotline Modes
669
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671
675
680
683
686
690
698
699
703
703
704
705
718
722
729
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.10
21.11
21.12
21.13
21.14
Sperrazza and Kokinakis Methods (SK)
General Full Spray Personnel Model (GFSP)
Detailed Description of GFSP
Ballistic Limit for Fragments
Effect of Terrain on Presented Area
Component-Level Personnel Injury Modeling
Injury due to Blast
Operational Requirement Based Casualty Assessment
(ORCA)
21.15 Risk Estimates, Collateral Damage, and Minimum Safe
Distances
Chapter 22 Advanced Trajectory Methods
22.1
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
22.9
Air-to-Surface Trajectory
Unguided Weapon Trajectory Software (UWTS)
Guided Weapon Trajectory Software (GWTS)
GWTS Trajectory Mode
GWTS Impact Mode
GWTS Implementation in JWS
Precision Munition Planning Tool (PMPT)
Example Trajectory Model for Guided Weapons
Surface-to-Surface Weapon Trajectory
Chapter 23 Ground Penetration
23.1
23.2
23.3
23.4
23.5
23.6
Introduction
Penetration Modeling Using PC Effects Program
Penetration Modeling Using PENCRV3D
PENCRV3D Stress Equations
Ricochet and Broach
Advanced Bomb Burial
Chapter 24 Air Blast
24.1
24.2
24.3
24.4
24.5
24.6
24.7
24.8
24.9
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xviii
Fundamentals of Air Blast
Explosion Characteristics
Characteristics of Air
Shock Front
Formation of the Blast Wave
Explosive Yield
Characteristics of the Blast Wave
Shock-Wave Reflection
Normal Air Shock-Wave Reflection
730
734
741
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749
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761
764
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811
811
811
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Contents
24.10 Blast Characteristics—Attenuation with Distance
24.11 External Blast Loading on Structures
24.12 Dynamic Response of Structures
and Components
24.13 Internal Blast Loading on Structures
24.14 FACEDAP Program
24.15 Engineering Models for Predicting
Blast Damage
24.16 Blast Effects Against Materiel Targets
24.17 Blast Lethal Miss Distance
24.18 Joint Blast Analysis Methodology (JBAM)
Chapter 25 Tunnels
25.1 Introduction
25.2 Overview of JWS Tunnel Weaponeering
Methodology
25.3 Tunnel Crater Methodology
25.4 Spall Crater Development
25.5 Breach Crater Development
25.6 Combined Spall and Breach Crater Formation
25.7 Rubble Volume
25.8 Craters on Nonplanar Surfaces
25.9 Multiple Craters
25.10 Air Blast in Tunnels
25.11 Blast Door Vulnerability Model
25.12 Damage Criteria for Tunnels
Chapter 26 Cratering
26.1
26.2
26.3
26.4
26.5
26.6
26.7
Introduction
Treatment of Cylindrical Charges
Crater Geometry and Definitions
Detonations in Soil
Surface Craters in Concrete
Surface Craters in Concrete over Soil
Ejecta
Chapter 27 Above-Ground Buildings and Bunkers
27.1
27.2
27.3
27.4
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xix
Introduction
Overview of FIST Functionality
Basic Building Structural Models
Smart Target Model Generator for Buildings (STMG)
830
833
837
840
843
848
851
853
860
865
865
865
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
27.5
27.6
27.7
27.8
27.9
27.10
27.11
27.12
27.13
27.14
27.15
27.16
27.17
27.18
27.19
27.20
Weapon Impact, Penetration, and Detonation
Internal Detonations—Shock-Wave Path Length
Structural Damage for Internal Detonations
Flexural Failure due to Shock Loading
Breach and Spall
Flexural Failure due to Quasi-Static
Pressure (GPRS)
Quasi-Static Pressures Outside the Blast Room
External Bursts—Ground Shock
External Bursts—Cratering and Breach
Building Collapse
Progressive or Disproportionate Collapse
Structural Kill Metrics
Functional Kill
Equipment Damage
Personnel Injury
Bunkers and Hardened Targets
Chapter 28 Nonhomogeneous Targets
28.1
28.2
28.3
28.4
28.5
28.6
28.7
28.8
Introduction
Target Description
Attack Description
Weapon – Target Interaction
Target Shielding
PK Calculations for All Weapon—Target Pairings
Combining PD for Multiple Weapons
Damage to the Complete Target—Disablement
Diagrams
28.9 Monte Carlo Structure
28.10 Summary of Methodology
Chapter 29 Bridge Targets
29.1
29.2
29.3
29.4
29.5
29.6
29.7
29.8
29.9
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xx
Introduction
Bridge Components
Bridge Types
Damage Requirements for Defeating a Bridge Target
Elementary Concepts in Structural Mechanics
Bridge Design Codes and Standards
Characteristic Dimensions in Structural Design
Damage Mechanisms Involved in Collapsing a Span
Fragment and Blast Loading of Structural Members
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992
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Contents
29.10 Characterizing Failure Criteria
29.11 Weapon Damage Model
29.12 Overview of Structural Failure Prediction
Methodology
Chapter 30 Collateral Damage Estimation
30.1 Introduction
30.2 Simple Collateral Damage Methodology
30.3 Four-Tier Collateral Damage and Casualty Estimation
Methodology
30.4 Collateral Damage Boundaries and Hazardous Areas
30.5 Collateral Damage Estimates (CDE) Methodology
Chapter 31 Antiair Weapon Effectiveness
31.1
31.2
31.3
31.4
31.5
31.6
31.7
31.8
31.9
31.10
31.11
31.12
31.13
31.14
31.15
Introduction
Joint Antiair Model (JAAM)
General Model Description and Features
Missile Model Description
Aircraft Model Description
Launch Acceptable Region (LAR) Generation
Suite of Antiair Kill Chain Models and Data (SAK-MD)
Aimpoints
Delivery Accuracy
Fuze Function
Single-Fragment Probability of Kill
Damage due to Fragments
Damage due to Direct Hit
Damage due to Blast
Total Damage PK
Chapter 32 Target Acquisition
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.4
32.5
32.6
32.7
32.8
32.9
32.10
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xxi
Introduction
Experimental Contrast Thresholds for the Human Eye
Overington Threshold Model
Field Tests Detecting Military Targets
Johnson’s Frequency – Domain Experiments
ACQUIRE Target Acquisition Model
Air-to-Surface Target Acquisition
Flight Profile and Run– in Effects
Terrain Model
Detection Range RVIS
1002
1007
1008
1011
1011
1012
1013
1020
1022
1033
1033
1033
1036
1038
1039
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Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness
32.11 Conversion of Range to Probability of Launch
32.12 Target Acquisition Tool
32.13 Time-Dependent Target Detection—Search
Appendix A Standard Statistical Tables
1086
1089
1092
1095
Appendix B
B.1
B.2
B.3
B.4
B.5
B.6
Derivation of Error Equations for Unguided,
Surface-Launched Weapons
Precision Error—PD/Proximity and Altitude Fuze
Precision Error—Time Fuze
MPI Errors for Predicted Fire—PD/Proximity and
Altitude Fuze
MPI Errors for Predicted Fire—Time Fuze
MPI Errors for Registration/Transfer Adjusted
Fire—PD/Proximity and Altitude Fuze
MPI Errors for Registration/Transfer Adjusted
Fire—Time Fuze
1099
1099
1100
1101
1104
1106
1113
Appendix C Weapon Selection Based on Target and
Damage Criteria
1121
Index
1147
Supporting Materials
00_Drielsr_FM.3d xxii
000