CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Denmark & CFA Society Norway The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation, investment report writing, and presentation skills of university students. The following report was prepared in compliance with the Official Rules of the CFA Institute Research Challenge, is submitted by a team of university students as part of this annual educational initiative and should not be considered a professional report. Disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report. 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This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with CFA Society Denmark & CFA Society Norway. CFA Institute, or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock. 1 INVESTMENT SUMMARY Nordic is a fabless semiconductor company specializing in wireless technology that powers the IoT. The company was established in 1983 in Trondheim, Norway and currently employs 1079 workers, with 77% of the workforce employed within R&D. In 2020 Nordic reported a total of USD 405m in revenue. Recommendation Recommendation SELL Date 01.12.2021 Current Price NOK 310 Target Price NOK 218 Industry Semiconductor Ticker NOD Stock Exchange Oslo Børs Downside 30% Shares Outstanding 190.96m Market Capitalization NOK 41.6 B EPS (2021) NOK 2.35 We reckon that the market has overvalued the company given the market potential, fundamental value, competition, and substitution risk. With a current share price (01.12.2021) of NOK 310 per share our conclusion is therefore a SELL recommendation. We value the stock at NOK 218 per share which indicates a 30% drop from today’s price level. The target priced is based on DCF model and Relative Valuation. In addition, we use a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to simulate a range of possible values. Our sell recommendation mainly relies on 3 key drivers, (1) Working Capital Issues, (2) order backlog and supply chain constraints and (3) Industry Growth Expectations. Working Capital Issues Nordic has a lot of capital tied up with inventory and receivables. If you combine this with short period of payables, this makes the liquidity cycle worse than necessary. Although their receivables and the credit period are decreasing, the number of days of inventory at hand is increasing. This force Nordic to keep piles of cash on its balance sheet resulting in lower growth opportunity because the cash is tied up. During 2014-2020, the average number of days Nordic had accounts receivable in hand was 63 days and the average cash conversion cycle from 2016-2020 was 163 which reflects what already suggested. We predict that this will become an even bigger problem because the continuous struggles of Covid-19. Unable to fully deliver on order backlog & supply chain constraints Team research The market suggests that Nordic will be able to fully deliver on $1.3b order backlog, which we think is unreasonable. The current wafer shortage makes it unlikely that Nordic will be able to deliver fully on its order backlog and we expect the backlog to be pushed further out, delaying future revenues. This in turn, might lead to less than expected investments in both R&D but also other important parts of the company. Also, we expect the ongoing “supply chain crisis” that started with Covid-19 to continue into 2022, further delaying the revenues and capabilities to deliver on revenue targets. We believe the order backlog is inflated due to the semiconductor shortage and suspect the customers have ordered more than they need to get ahead in the long que and secure their orders. From Nordic reports Billions Global Bluetooth LE & Ceullular IoT Market 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 2018 2020 Bluetooth LE Team research 2022 2024 2026 2028 Industry Growth Expectations The Bluetooth LE and the cIoT market are expected to grow with a CAGR of 20% and 21.4% until 2027 and have a total market capitalization of USD 20.4b and USD 14.2b respectively. While assuming Nordic will grow their business at the same rate or even if they can gain market share in both segments, the enterprise value would not reach the value of today. We therefore believe that the market has overestimated Nordic’s potential. This confirms our view on the current share price. Cellular IoT 2 BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Business Segments Currently Nordics specialty and main business area lies within the subgroup Bluetooth LE which can be found in almost all wireless technological devices we use today. This award-winning technology have made them the market leader within the segment and accounts for 78% of their revenues. The rest is made up from Wi-Fi and cIoT business segments. Further, Nordic is considered a first mover within the next big wave of semiconductors, Cellular IoT (cIoT). From Nordic reports Customers and End-Product application Nordics products can be found in all sorts of wireless gadgets and equipment we see around us. They also have an impressing customer portfolio. Ranging from Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Samsung, Tencent etc. This is probably the reason why most of their sales is in consumer electronics. With the investments in cIoT Nordic will hopefully grow other areas of their business, and look to expand their current segments within monitoring buildings, healthcare etc. Currently, 41% of revenues is within the consumer electronics, 21% withing building/retail, 16% comes from wearables, 10% comes from healthcare and 10% comes from other areas. From Nordic reports Business Strategy Nordic strives to maintain the position as the leader within the Bluetooth LE market but also diversify its income stream by focusing more on other technologies such as Wi-Fi and specially cIoT. To achieve the goal, they must invest more in R&D than competitors which they indeed do. The big bulk of future R&D are expected to be allocated from Bluetooth LE into cIoT. While 77% of the workers are currently working in R&D, Nordic has great potential to capture this market. The back of the coin with such a big part of its workforce and revenues goes into R&D, it will be more difficult to realize gains on potential innovation. More investment in R&D means that there is an alternative cost by not investing in other parts of its business such as sales, marketing, new offices, etc. In addition, a great chunk of the payroll will be tied to R&D which indeed will limit the cashflows. From Nordic reports Acquisition of Wi-Fi technology and development team from Imagination Technologies At the end of 2020 Nordic acquired the Wi-Fi assets and development team of Imagination Technologies. The key objective of this acquisition was to exploit the synergies between the team’s unique expertise and Nordic’s low power technology. Supposedly to strengthen future product portfolio to gain a higher market share within the Wi-Fi segment. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE Environment Since Nordic is a fabless semiconductor producer, they don’t emit much CO2 and other emissions directly. However, the producers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactoring Company (TSMC) is a huge consumer of energy, water, toxic chemicals, and other hazardous waste. The majority of TSMC’s factories are in Taiwan and China where most of the energy mix 3 consists of fossil energy sources such as coal, oil and natural gas. The business is also hugely water intensive with the use of 38 liters for a single computer chip. The industry also has a big problem with its wastewater and hazardous waste. Even though Nordic argues that their products are used in monitoring emissions and consumptions, they can hardly be classified as a green company. Since most of the companies in the sector is using the same suppliers, it is hard to claim environmentally superiority among the companies. However, Nordic is aware of this situation and are trying to work with their suppliers to reduce their environmental footprint. From Nordic reports Social Nordic is trying to participate in several measures for a more social world. However, not all measures are perfect yet. When it comes to gender balance, 86% of their employees excl. executive management team are men. They score better on diversity with 42 different nationalities represented at the company's headquarters. To cope with the gender imbalance, they have initiated several measures to cope with this. Among this is a program that is trying to promote engineering studies for women at the local university NTNU in order to attract future female employees. From Nordic reports One big issue the semiconductor industry is facing, is conflict minerals. Minerals like 3TG (Tin, Tungsten, Tantalum and Gold) and Cobalt are often extracted in countries like Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) where rebel groups, armies and other outsiders has benefited from the extraction, resulting in more corruption, conflicts and bribery. To reduce this issue, Nordic has a Conflict Mineral program where they follow the guidelines of OECD to ensure no direct or indirect financing of conflicts in the DRCregion. Governance From Nordic reports Percentage ownership per country From Nordic reports We believe that Nordic has a sound corporate governance structure. They comply with the Norwegian Corporate Governance Structure (NUES), which ensures a good way of practicing Corporate Governance in Norway. Further Norwegian law prohibits the CEO from serving as the chairman which will mitigate interest of conflicts. Under the 2020 annual report there has been no deviations from the code of practice which is a sign of a company with a well-functioning internal governance structure. Some of the board members are working in two different sub committees as the people and compensation committee which ensures that key talent and the management group gets a competitive remuneration for their work. The other is the audit committee which oversee the accounting, financial reporting, and internal and external auditing. This gives the board members a clear structure of order to prevent adverse practices in the company. The members of the Board of Directors have a diverse background putting Nordic in a better position for future changes in the semiconductor industry. Overall, the company seems to have a good practice for dealing with corporate governance. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW The semiconductor industry is the aggregate of companies engaged in the design and fabrication of semiconductors and semiconductor devices. As the electronic devices is widely used in modern society. The semiconductor products build a key block in the electronic devices with high-added value. The global electronic manufacturing services (EMS) market was USD 468.9 billion in 2020, and it is projected to grow from USD 500.3 billion in 2021 4 to USD 849.7 in 2028 at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9% after economic recovery from pandemic. Demand Drivers The semiconductor sector is booming, and we expect a strong industry growth in the upcoming decade due to our three key demand drivers: 1) technological growth, 2) digitalization, and 3) hybrid office solutions. From Nordic reports • Technological growth The industry had a breakthrough in technology adoption in the healthcare sector. Covid-19 generated a wave of new technological products for testing, disease detection and prevention, monitoring of social distancing, and a more effective vaccine delivery. Great potential growth in the smart home market. Bluetooth and multiprotocol combined products can enable thousands of different devices to connect with smart home hubs. The future awaits many technological innovations that will need IoT and Bluetooth. • Digitalization The pandemic has fast-forwarded the digitalization process in several sectors by many years. Sectors like healthcare do now see the value added by their connected medical devices and monitoring solutions. Especially, undeveloped countries have a big potential when it comes to digitalization. Most of the countries are decades behind developed countries and will catch up in the upcoming years. From Nordic reports • Hybrid Office Solutions Due to the pandemic, the level of hybrid offices has increased. In result, workers do now have a much more flexible office hours and can work from several locations. The changes in work practices have indeed increased the need for home office solutions, supporting the growth for both Bluetooth LE and proprietary products. Also, the market for gaming and entertainment had a significant growth during the pandemic, which consists of very similar products. Supply Drivers As a fabless semiconductor company, Nordic rely on supply of wafers and other components from their suppliers. However, there is an increase in the demand/supply imbalance through the semiconductor value chain due to temporarily limited global supply of wafers, and this will put caps to the wafer allocation in the upcoming years. The supply chain has indeed interrupted during the pandemic and is still in an ongoing uncertain future. Nordic’s products are manufactured and assembled at subcontractors in Asia and delivered to their customers by regional and global distributor partners. To summarize our industry analysis, we expect future growth by higher demand in technological innovations, digitalization from both developed and undeveloped countries, and hybrid office solutions that will continue even after the pandemic. However, we expect the pandemic to further disrupt the supply chains in the future, which indeed will make it difficult to take full advantage of the strong demand. 5 COMPETETIVE POSITIONING Leading the Bluetooth LE Market Nordic has a superior Bluetooth LE technology, with a market share of 45% in their market. Since it is expected that the world will demand a lot more technological gadgets in the future, we expect Nordic to harvest big revenues from this segment. Their long-time research focus in this area makes it easy to harvest the revenue without investing too much money in further development, maximizing the cash flow to their shareholders. SWOT Analysis • Strengths Currently Nordic has 45% of the market share in the Bluetooth LE segment and is considered a leading vendor of wireless connectivity and embedded processing solutions for IoT. • Weaknesses Because the company is located in Norway, there are several weaknesses Nordic has when compared to its peers. First, the cost of labor in Norway is very expensive compared to US, Germany etc. We therefore consider this a weakness. With rising inflation in Norway and the interest rates are set to increase, we believe that the market has not taken this into its consideration when valuing the stock. Also, another disadvantage of being headquartered in Norway is that there are limits on the human capital available. If we compare Norway to the US, the US has more qualified workers. The cost of recruiting foreigners is also high. • Opportunity The biggest opportunity for Nordic is the Cellular IoT market. With the Cellular IoT market set to reach a market value of 14.2b by 2027, Nordic have a huge opportunity in this segment. In addition, the development of new technology and devices requiring semiconductor will make new business opportunities for Nordic. • Threats The risk of Bluetooth being replaced (unattractive compared to other technologies) is quite a big concern for Nordic. If Nordic is unable to swiftly change their core product in the event of technology replacement, the threat of substitution is of high magnitude. The biggest immediate threat comes from different Wi-Fi standards tightly integrated with Bluetooth in combo-chipset. Other wireless standard such as UWB, might rather be a long-term risk in some of the verticals where Bluetooth is dominant today. We also consider the ongoing uncertain pandemic to pose a threat against the semiconductor industry and Nordic. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Increased revenue with competitive products We expect Nordic to gain market share due to their competitive semiconductors. Bluetooth has long been a key driver for the company’s revenue, and we still believe this will be the case in the future. However, we also strongly believe that their focus on R&D in the cellular IoT will 6 materialize in an even higher growth in this segment. We expect a high growth rate in the coming years due to the order backlog and increased demand for Nordic products, but that they don’t fully manage to profit on an inflated order backlog. The average revenue CAGR from 2014-2020 was 15.9%. This year we expect the revenue growth to be around 45% based on stipulation of the Q1-Q3 reports available at present time. After that we expect a gradually decline in revenue growth. The estimated growth is above the calculated CAGR of 18% between 2020-2027 based on consultancy reports. This is based on the fast growth of cIoT and gained market share in Bluetooth LE. The terminal growth rate has been set to 2.5% which is roughly in line with the expected increase in global GDP. Costs in line with historic average Team research We expect cost of materials and other operating costs to move in line with the revenue growth. Cost of materials has been set to 50% of revenue which is the average of the previous years. Since Nordic is a fabless producer, we don’t expect to see any big changes in the future. Salary growth is expected to grow fast in the next couple of years due to more R&D resulting in a demand for more researchers, before gradually declining to a steady state level with few new employees. We believe that the number of employees will grow slower than the increase in revenue, due to their already high focus on R&D. This will improve future EBIT- and EBITDAmargin significantly. Other cost drivers Based on our hypothesis that the number of employees will not grow as fast as revenues; we also believe that operating non-current asset (ONCA) will also decrease as a percentage of revenue. However, operating current assets (OCA) is something that most likely will grow in the same pace as revenue. This post contains inventories and receivables. Unless they manage to decrease their inventories in percentage or they manage to decrease the time of credit the costumers get, it looks like a reasonable assumption. Keeping a zero-dividend policy Nordic issued new equity of NOK 1.144 billion in September 2020; hence they are well capitalized for the future. Apart from 2014 and 2015 they have had very little net interest-bearing debt (NIBD). Tech-companies often relies most on equity and less on debt. This is because most of its values are intangible, like patents, and their employees. These assets often have very little value if the company is liquidated or goes bankrupt. Hence, banks are often reluctant to lend to such companies. Dividends are also something we have set to zero in the future. This is based on the assumption of newly raised equity and that they have big growth opportunities. Due to the assumptions made above, we see that many of the liquidity ratios are relatively stable or grow over time. VALUATION By analyzing Nordic’s three financial statements and their future opportunities in terms of growth, we find a fundamental value that does not justify their current share price of 310 NOK. Our assumptions and calculations give Nordic a fair share price of 218 NOK. In result, we conclude that the market is overestimating their values based on unlikely high future growth, both in revenues and in the terminal value. 7 Cost of capital To arrive at the cost of capital, we use the Norwegian 10 years bond as a proxy of the risk-free rate, which is currently 1.47% . The market risk premium is 5%, as found in a recent report from PwC, estimating the market risk premium in the Norwegian market. 5% is also in line with Damodaran’s estimate of market risk premiums for mature markets. The unlevered beta we use is from Nordics four closest competitors. The number we get is 1.15. Since Nordic does not have any net interest-bearing debt, we set the required rate of return on equity equal to the WACC. The reason for no net interest bearing debt, is due to the equity raise done last year by the company. Tech-companies are known for a low debt ratio since their biggest assets often are their employees. This is not visible in the balance sheet and hence makes it difficult to obtain a bank loan, unless supported by a strong cash flow. In this case we arrive at a WACC and return on equity at approximately 7.2%. Team research DCF valuation We use both free cash flow to firm (FCFF) and free cash flow to equity (FCFE) to get the market value of Nordic. This allows us to model the future cashflows to Nordic quite detailed. In the next years to come we have projected a high growth rate that would eventually drop until it reaches terminal growth rate in 2031. The reason we have modelled such a long time period is that we believe that Nordic has a high growth potential in many years to come before it reaches a more mature phase. The growth rate we have estimated is based on consultancy reports of the growth rate in the different sub areas of the semiconductor industry. The next year we estimate a growth rate of 45% that is justified based on this year Q1-Q3 revenue growth. The next years after that is also higher than the estimated CAGR of 18% between 2020-2027 from the consultancy reports, if we assume that Nordic keeps their market share. The terminal growth is set to 2.5% based on what we believe will be the long-term GDP growth in the world will be. When all these assumptions are summed up, we get a share price of NOK 207 based on FCFE and NOK 218 based on FCFF. Monte Carlo Simulation Team research We perform a Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 trials, testing our key input factors listed below, to test the share price fluctuations under uncertainty. By varying the revenue excl. terminal growth, terminal growth, cost of goods sold and WACC. We found that the probability of the stock to be higher than today's share price (01.12.2021 @ NOK 310 pr share) to be 3.5%, and that in 96.5% of the trials, the share price were below todays (01.12.2021 @ 310). Sensitivity analysis We analyze our DCF model’s robustness to changes in our key input factors: revenue excl. terminal growth, terminal growth, cost of goods sold and WACC, to determine their effect on our SELL recommendation. We can clearly see that the most sensitive variable is the WACC and the revenue growth, which makes sense because Nordic is a high growth company where most of its earnings lies many years into the future. (Appendix C2) Relative Valuation Team research We can see from the relative valuation that today’s price of NOK 310 is very high compared to its closed competitors. Only under P/B and trailing P/E it is possible to justify a slightly higher price than the current share 8 price. This indicates little potential for a higher share price but seems rather as s sign for an overpriced company. INVESTMENT RISKS Four major risks are identified in Nordic: strategic, market, operational and financial risks. Some of the risks are out of Nordics control, including industry and cyclical risk. Strategic risks: uncertainty for future demand (Probability: Moderate, Impact: Moderate) SR1. Geopolitical Risk: Risk matrix Geopolitical risk and trade tensions could reduce demand for Nordic products. For instance, the ongoing trade war between US and China, can impact Nordic negatively. As a fabless company, Nordic heavily rely on its main supplier in Taiwan. Due to the geopolitical sensitivity for Taiwan, the tensions between US and China could disrupt Taiwan and it´s supplier’ production. Mitigation: They actively monitor the geopolitical situation and is taking action to reduce the impact. E.g., supporting in optimizing the value chain of customers and place early orders to secure supply chain. Although the risk is hard to predict and out of control, it´s more likely a long-term nature and low probability to occur in the short run. We believe Nordic is working adequately to reduce the impact, but not fully hedged. SR2. Cellular IoT: Although Cellular IoT segments has grown explosively since 2020 (changes 524.3%). There´s still risk that they may be not successful in the executive strategy to capture the cellular market opportunity in terms of time, scale, and volume. In addition, customers may choose other low power wide range network technology or cancel due to unavailable technology. It´s long-run nature. Mitigation: Nordic has integrated many different technologies into a very small System Package, which could improve the efficiency significantly than any comparable products in the market. In addition, they focus on delivering user-friendly products and working closely with regulators and carriers to remove barriers to entry, but we believe it´s not adequate to avoid the risk. Market Risks (Probability: High, Impact: High) MR 1. Subject to high Industry cyclicality: Due to the cyclicality of semiconductor industry, Nordic has high volatility in the business and financial results. In downmarket, Nordic´s business could be significantly impacted by demand and declined selling prices. In the upmarket, they can experience periods of increased demand and manufacturing constrains. Mitigation: They monitor actively the macroeconomy and make necessary supply chain adjustment to optimize the production in align with the demand, price level and inventory. But we believe it´s not adequate to avoid. 9 MR 2. Threat of current competitors and new entrants: Nordic faces strong competition in the industry in terms of price, functionality, and software solutions. In addition, they don´t specialize in specific or niche sales market especially in verticals, which made Nordic´s market share unstable and hard to gain high price premium. Compared with other competitors in terms of the size, R&D and financial results, Nordic is not in a preferable position. Meanwhile, they also face competitions from new entrants in short and long run. Mitigation: They continue to invest in products, software, and strategic partnership to maintain competitive advantage. Nordic´s multiprotocol portfolio ensures company is well positioned and more flexible in compatibility across different standards. In addition, Nordic is high focus on R&D, which is perquisite to maintain advantage, but not guaranteed. Operational Risks Heat map (Probability: Low, Impact: High) OR 1. Supply chain disruption and quality control risk: Nordic is a fabless company and rely on third-party producers and distribution partners for sales. The failure of third-party to deliver the products could damage revenue in short term and customer relationship in the long run. Mitigation: Nordic try keeping a buffer stock of components and finished products to deal with short -term demand. In the midterm to long run, Nordic seeks to a second sourcing and insurance for supply disruption. In addition, Nordic has also own testers, which could improve production and make sure quality in both short and long run adequately. OR 2. Product ramp: Nordic may fail to ramp or strategic design new products according to customer´s requirements, resulting failure to meet customer requirements and great losses. It could be short-run and long-run nature. They have tight control over new product Introduction process; They strengthen quality control during high products ramps and heavily invest in failure Analysis lab to solve issues quickly and effectively. OR 3. Working capital issue: Nordic has an average account receivables of 63 days between 2014 and 2020 and an average cash conversion cycle of 163 days between 2016 and 2020. Meanwhile, A big proportion of capital in R&D, which is expected to increase continuously to keep sustainable comparative advantage. Hence, the working capital and cash flow could be a serious problem coupled with Covid-pandemic. Mitigation: We think they haven’t solved the problems effectively. Financial risk (Probability: Low Impact: Moderate) FR 1. Foreign currency risk: As revenue and direct production costs are almost just denominated in USD, whereas operating expenses are in NOK and EUR. Hence, they could be subject to exchange rate fluctuation in both short run and long run. 10 Mitigation: They can use derivative financial instruments to reduce its exposure to currency exchange rate movements. FR 2. Credit risk: Nordic is exposed to credit risk related to both distributors and endcustomers. The main counterparties are leading distributors of electronic components based in Asia, but the company has not suffered any significant credit losses historically. So, the credit risk has relatively low probability to occur. Mitigation: Credit monitoring routines are integrated into any new credit lines, requiring security in the form of payment guarantees or advance payment requirements if needed. Considering the low probability, we believe that their measures could be adequate. 11 APPENDIX Appendix A – Glossary b – Billions CAGR – Compund annual growth rate CE – Capital employed CEO – Chief Executive Officer cIoT – Cellular Internet of things CO2- Carbon dioxide DCF – Discounted cash flow EBIT - Earnings before interest and taxes EBITDA – Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortizations EUR – Euro (currency) FCA – Financial current assets FCFE – Free cash flow to equity FCFF – Free cash flow to firm FNCA – Financial non-current assets IBD – Interest bearing debt LE – Low energy m - Millions NFA – Net financial assets NOA – Net operating assets NOK – Norwegian Krone (currency) NONCA – Net operating non-current assets NOPAT – Net operating profit after taxes NOWC – Net operating working capital OCA – Operating current assets OCL – Operating current liabilities OECD – Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ONCA – Operating non-current assets ONCL – Operating non-current liabilities P/B – Price-to-book ratio P/E - Price-to-earnings ratio PEG - Price-to-earnings-to-Growth ratio Q1- Quarter 1 12 R&D – Research and Development ROIC – Return on invested capital TA – Total assets USD – US Dollar (currency) WACC – Weighted average cost of capital Appendix B1 – Income Statement Appendix B2 – Balance sheet Appendix B3 – Cash flow statement 13 Appendix C1 – Discounted cash flow models Appendix C2 – Sensitivity analysis 14 Appendix C3 – Monte Carlo simulation Appendix C4 – Relative Valuation 15 Appendix D – Ratios for Nordic 16