The balance of payments account is a record of the value of all transactions between one country and all other countries over a given period of time. Structure of the Balance of Payments Transaction of money entering country is called a credit item and has a positive value. Transaction of money exiting country is called a debit item and has a negative value. The current account is a measure of the income flows, from trade of goods and services as well as other sources. o The balance of trade in goods: also known as the visible trade balance, the merchandise account balance, or the balance of trade. Measures export revenue minus import expenditure on tangible goods. o The balance of trade in services: also known as the invisible balance, the services balance, or net services. Measures export revenue minus import expenditure on services. o Income: also known as net investment incomes. Measures the net monetary movement of profit, interest, and dividends moving into and out of the country as a result of financial investment abroad. o Current transfers: also known as net unilateral transfers from abroad. Measures net payments between countries when no goods or services change hands, including foreign aid, grants, and foreign workers sending money back to families. The capital account is a measure of trivial monetary movements and transactions in intangible assets. Smallest part of the BoP account. o Capital transfers: measures the net monetary movements through transfers of goods and financial assets by migrants, debt forgiveness, transfers from sales of fixed assets, gift taxes, inheritance taxes, and death duties, etc. o Transactions in non-produced, non-financial assets: measures the monetary flows from international sales of non-produced assets like land or rights to natural resources, and of non-financial assets such as patents, copyrights, brand names, and franchises. The financial account is a measure of the net change in foreign ownership of domestic financial assets. o Direct investment: measures purchases of long-term assets where the purchaser hopes to gain lasting interest in a foreign company. Includes the buying of property, businesses, or stocks or shares in businesses. Consists largely of foreign direct investment. o Portfolio investment: measures stock and bond purchases, which are simply borrowing and lending on the international market and hence do not lead to lasting interest in a company. Include treasury bills, government bonds, and savings account deposits. o Reserve assets: measures net change in reserves of gold and foreign currencies which are itemized in the official reserve account. This account ensures that the BoP is always balanced. When an account is positive, there is a surplus; when it is negative, there is a deficit. A portion of an account can be in surplus or deficit without influencing the overall account. The BoP account = current account + capital account + financial account and must equal 0. Net errors and omissions are included due to recording insufficiencies. Overall, numerically, the current account balance equals the sum of the capital and financial account balances. The current and the financial accounts are interdependent because reserves are adjusted to ensure the overall account is balanced. Hence, if current account is in surplus, reserves decrease and financial account decreases, and if current account is in deficit, reserves increase and financial account increases. Current Account and the Exchange Rate When there is a current account deficit, increases in the capital and financial accounts may cover the deficit in the short run, but eventually the currency must be devaluated in a fixed exchange rate regime because reserves run out. In a floating exchange rate regime, there has either been fallen demand for exports and hence less demand for currency, or increased demand for imports and hence more supply of currency, meaning the currency depreciates. In both regimes, current account deficit may result in downward pressure on the exchange rate. When there is a current account surplus, decreases in the capital and financial accounts may offset the surplus but other countries will be unhappy with artificially low exchange rate, so the currency must be revaluated in a fixed exchange rate regime. In a floating exchange rate regime, there has either been increased demand for exports and hence more demand for currency, or decreased demand for imports and hence less supply of currency, meaning the currency appreciates. Either way, current account surplus creates upward pressure on exchange rate. Consequences of Current Account and Financial Account Imbalances When current account is in deficit then the financial account will have in surplus to balance out the deficit. This may have the following consequences: o Foreign currency reserves may be used to increase the financial account. However, no country is able to fund long-term current account deficits. o High levels of foreign purchasing of domestic assets such as property, businesses, or stocks or shares in businesses. This must be based on foreign confidence in the economy, so it is not considered harmful. However, if foreign ownership of domestic assets become too great, there may be a threat to economic sovereignty. If confidence decreases, selling these assets would result in increased supply of the currency and rapid fall in value. o High levels of lending from abroad could increase financial account, but high rates of interest will have to be paid, which will be a shortterm drain on the economy and increase the current account deficit in future years. There is again risk of sudden drop in the value of the currency. When current account is in surplus, there may the following consequences: o A country can build up its official reserve account and purchase assets abroad, but one country’s surplus is another’s deficit, so this may result in protectionism by other countries. o Upward pressure on the exchange rate makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive, creating deflationary pressures and harming both domestic and exporting producers. Methods to Correct a Persistent Current Account Deficit Expenditure-switching policies attempt to switch domestic consumer expenditure away from imports towards domestically produced goods and services. o Depreciate or devalue the currency: exports become cheaper and imports become more expensive. Depending on PED, export revenue rises and import expenditure falls, improving the deficit. o Protectionism measures: by reducing availability or increasing price of imports, governments can encourage domestic consumers to switch expenditure from imports to domestic products. These measures have limitations because they tend to lead to retaliation and are often against WTO agreements. Also, protectionism reduces competition and efficiency. Expenditure-reducing policies attempt to reduce overall expenditure in the economy, including on imports. The size of the decrease in import spending depends on the marginal propensity to import. o Contractionary fiscal policies can be used to reduce aggregate demand in the economy. o Contractionary monetary policies reduce total expenditure on final goods and services. Also, higher interest rates attract capital flows from abroad, leading to a surplus in the financial account, which helps to offset the current account deficit. These measures are politically unpopular and have costs such as slower economic growth and unemployment. The Marshall-Lerner Condition For current account deficit to improve, export revenue must rise and import expenditure must fall. When the currency’s value falls, exports are cheaper, and imports are more expensive, so there are more exports and less imports. This improves currency account deficit if and only if PED of exports and imports are somewhat elastic. Hence the Marshall-Lerner Condition states that reducing the value of the exchange rate will only be successful if PEDexports + PEDimports > 1. The J-Curve When the value of currency is first reduced, communication is imperfect, so countries do not realise exports are cheaper. Also, contracts inside and outside the country restrict price changes, so in the short run, PED is relatively inelastic. As a result, current account deficit worsens from X to Y. Upon reaching Y, countries have realized prices are cheaper and contracts have expired, so PED for imports and exports increase, meeting the Marshall-Lerner condition. Current account deficit improves, as shown by the movement from Y to Z on the J-curve. Current Account= Capital Account + Financial Account