Summary of Juno’s contribution
Table of contents
Starting traders ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
Reducing randomness.................................................................................................................................................................................. 3
Short-term strength and momentum in markets ......................................................................................................................................... 4
On big movers .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 4
Research Idea............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Different timeframes ................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Leaders and laggards ................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Stalk Mode ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Preparation .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Stocks at highs vs lows ................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Undercut and rally setup (12th of October breakout) ................................................................................................................................... 7
Theme play .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Stocks are like individuals ............................................................................................................................................................................ 8
Group acting bad ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Overall trend and under the hood ............................................................................................................................................................... 9
How to prepare for the next bull run ........................................................................................................................................................... 9
Markets lead the FED ................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
The pain trade ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Different stages.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Exit on close ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
When starting out... ................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
First half of FOMC week ............................................................................................................................................................................. 12
One good trade and opinions on a ticker name ......................................................................................................................................... 12
Close of indices below 20 SMA .................................................................................................................................................................. 13
IWM and QQQ both breaking out is ideal .................................................................................................................................................. 13
Markets trend 20% of the time .................................................................................................................................................................. 13
When markets go sideways for a long time, sometimes they are waiting for a reason to pick a direction ............................................... 13
False breakdowns ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Shakeout days add conviction and crowded trades ................................................................................................................................... 15
A lot of eyes on a stock .............................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Buying gaps ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
Reviewing trades........................................................................................................................................................................................ 17
ADR narrowing before breakout and IPOs ................................................................................................................................................. 18
The first week of earnings is boring ........................................................................................................................................................... 18
When a topic is constantly on mainstream media ..................................................................................................................................... 19
Trading full time ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
Most profitable quarters............................................................................................................................................................................ 20
When to stop pushing so much ................................................................................................................................................................. 20
The bigger picture and market crash twice for the same reason ............................................................................................................... 20
Oversold bounces ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Risk/reward when stock is extended from 10 day ..................................................................................................................................... 21
Market leaders basing ............................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Stage 2 uptrend ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
The biggest moves occur when the majority is on the wrong side (max pain) ........................................................................................... 23
Earnings reaction is a good tell about the market environment ................................................................................................................ 24
Biotechs ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Getting away from the need to catch every move ..................................................................................................................................... 24
Stocks digesting moves .............................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Gap lower or higher when indexes are choppy.......................................................................................................................................... 25
Adapting to a difficult environment ........................................................................................................................................................... 25
Divergence in indices and "Profits come in bunches" ................................................................................................................................ 32
Never underestimate how quickly things can change................................................................................................................................ 32
Studying Eps............................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Buying the pullback? Or entry first 30-60 mins .......................................................................................................................................... 33
Hot themes ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Elevated VIX (from a note) ......................................................................................................................................................................... 33
Importance of following former leaders ("Graveyard stocks") .................................................................................................................. 33
Examples of JUNO's daily prep journal....................................................................................................................................................... 34
Trading fast movers ................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
"Green movement" commodities AND BIGGER PICTIRE SETUPS ............................................................................................................... 36
Too many positions/Gambling problem..................................................................................................................................................... 37
Significant move early in the week of FOMC ............................................................................................................................................. 37
When stocks have gone vertical ................................................................................................................................................................ 38
Entering early vs having confirmation ........................................................................................................................................................ 38
Juno subscribtions ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
On when you are inclined to send screenshots to your friends :) .............................................................................................................. 39
How to pick better stocks in similar setups ................................................................................................................................................ 39
Shorting leveraged ETFs performs better .................................................................................................................................................. 39
Swing traders want simplicity .................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Trading Indices when VIX elevated ............................................................................................................................................................ 40
Trading material names ............................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Theme plays ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Sideways, preferably a week plus .............................................................................................................................................................. 42
Parabolic plays ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Don't get discouraged ................................................................................................................................................................................ 42
Judging RS .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
During corrections ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
One of the biggest tells if you are looking at the right place ...................................................................................................................... 43
Master list .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 43
Plays in choppy environments ................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Juno's entry ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Kris' older videos on him "reading the market" ......................................................................................................................................... 46
Seasonality ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
RS of a stock compared to others .............................................................................................................................................................. 47
Early morning selling in strong markets ..................................................................................................................................................... 47
Entries on ultra fast runners ...................................................................................................................................................................... 48
How Juno played the pullback ................................................................................................................................................................... 48
Starting traders
Reducing randomness
Short-term strength and momentum in markets
On big movers
Research Idea
Different timeframes
Leaders and laggards
Stalk Mode
Preparation
Stocks at highs vs lows
Stocks nearest to its ATHs will almost always have the cleanest and most linear path higher because the average long has not been bagged at
higher prices and there's less overhead supply to work through. Stocks trading so far off from its ATHs will have sick rips but they often just
find sellers, create a lower high and resume the primary trend - headaches to swing these for multiple days/weeks.
Undercut and rally setup (12th of October breakout)
Theme play
Stocks are like individuals
Group acting bad
Overall trend and under the hood
How to prepare for the next bull run
Markets lead the FED
The pain trade
Different stages
Exit on close
When starting out...
First half of FOMC week
One good trade and opinions on a ticker name
Close of indices below 20 SMA
IWM and QQQ both breaking out is ideal
Markets trend 20% of the time
When markets go sideways for a long time, sometimes they are waiting for a reason
to pick a direction
False breakdowns
Shakeout days add conviction and crowded trades
A lot of eyes on a stock
Buying gaps
Reviewing trades
ADR narrowing before breakout and IPOs
The first week of earnings is boring
When a topic is constantly on mainstream media
Trading full time
Most profitable quarters
When to stop pushing so much
The bigger picture and market crash twice for the same reason
Oversold bounces
Risk/reward when stock is extended from 10 day
Market leaders basing
Stage 2 uptrend
The uptrend signals the start of Stage 2, a period in which market participants can buy aggressively, especially in the early phases. New
uptrends tend to attract a small group of committed buyers at the beginning and a big group of weak-handed chasers and followers closer
to the end. In turn, the early phase of an uptrend tends to elicit well-organized price action with a graceful series of higher highs and
higher lows, while a late-stage uptrend tends to spit out all sorts of traps, stop-running and failure swings. This happens because market
insiders take notice of the developing uptrend and use their special skills to shake out weak hands and late adaptors.
The middle of Stage 2 often prints a high-volume continuation gap that marks the halfway point of the uptrend. This surge to higher
ground also signals the formal introduction of weaker hands into the trade. Early adapters should tighten stops when uptrends exhibit this
emotional intensity, because price action is likely to get more erratic, although late-stage uptrends can produce the most vertical price
action and rapid profit building of any segment within the second stage.
The biggest moves occur when the majority is on the wrong side (max pain)
Earnings reaction is a good tell about the market environment
Biotechs
Getting away from the need to catch every move
Stocks digesting moves
Gap lower or higher when indexes are choppy
Adapting to a difficult environment
Divergence in indices and "Profits come in bunches"
Never underestimate how quickly things can change
Studying Eps
Buying the pullback? Or entry first 30-60 mins
Hot themes
Elevated VIX (from a note)
Once VIX reaches a certain level, the indices often become their own "stocks in play". This number in the VIX is commonly above 25 or 30.
A day or two where VIX spends above these thresholds is meaningless because exacerbated rises in the volatility index is common. It is
when the VIX can stay above or around these levels where traders should be more mindful of their overnight exposure and its relationship
to the indices. The environment generally becomes less favorable for swing traders - volatile intraday action that is no stranger to whipsaw
and unpredictable swings in the overnight session. You might be carrying a leading stock overnight because it closed strong but that's not
going to provide much relief come opening bell if the indices gap down and an elevated VIX pops off.
Importance of following former leaders ("Graveyard stocks")
I want to continue to monitor this group of former leaders that seem to be in a correction or are in the process of entering one. Their
overall health along with those of the market leaders will provide a fairer picture of the market than just a narrow watchlist of stocks
acting well. Having an honest assessment of the market allows us to allocate our portfolio to properly reflect the level of risk and
susceptibility of uncertainty our positions are exposed to. There will always be a degree of uncertainty in this game but if our goal is
longevity and consistency then being bold and daring with risk-on assets early in a risk-off environment is in all likelihood,
counterproductive.
Some companies on this list include: AFRM ARKK CELH CMG COUP FTCH MELI MNST PYPL RNG ROKU SE SNAP SQ UPST UPWK V
Examples of JUNO's daily prep journal
Trading fast movers
"Green movement" commodities AND BIGGER PICTIRE SETUPS
Too many positions/Gambling problem
Significant move early in the week of FOMC
When stocks have gone vertical
Entering early vs having confirmation
Juno subscribtions
On when you are inclined to send screenshots to your friends :)
How to pick better stocks in similar setups
Shorting leveraged ETFs performs better
Swing traders want simplicity
Trading Indices when VIX elevated
Trading material names
Theme plays
Sideways, preferably a week plus
Parabolic plays
Don't get discouraged
Judging RS
During corrections
The ES and NQ have now spent the last two weeks closing near the rising 20 weekly MA. Price has respected this moving average since
bottoming out in March 2020. With this, I believe buyers and sellers may continue to battle around this area for awhile. During the week,
price may overshoot the 20 weekly MA to the downside or upside but if your goal is to avoid the whipsaw commonly found during these
battles at an important level then the Friday close should be the only thing that matters. Changing your tune (bear or bull) and re-adjusting
your portfolio accordingly based on every daily close is a good way to spin your head and hemorrhage your account. During corrections, I
give more value to the slower time frames and slower moving averages - it protects me from getting emotionally baited into the handful of
traps found in whippy corrections.
One of the biggest tells if you are looking at the right place
Master list
Plays in choppy environments
Juno's entry
Kris' older videos on him "reading the market"
Seasonality
RS of a stock compared to others
Early morning selling in strong markets
Entries on ultra fast runners
How Juno played the pullback
•
•
October 14, 2021 - October 31, 2021
•
How I reacted:
o Prioritize emphasis on strong stocks in speculative themes. Build exposure in these groups via breakouts or
anticipating the breakouts during consolidations. Waste no time with low ADR movers. See morning weakness on
strong stocks as opportunities to add. Sit on winners as long as I can.
•
Red flags during this time:
o None ... market is providing good immediate feedback on new entries. Speculative stocks continue to outperform.
Everything during this time feels like a broad-based bull rally.
•
Setups I look for and examples (around this time period):
o Base Breakouts:
o LCID (10-28)
o AMD (10-18)
o SI (10-1)
o HUT (10-15)
o Undercut & rally:
o AFRM (10-6)
o High tight flags:
o No examples but I would look for these in this type of environment to start a position or add to current.
•
Goal during this time:
o To get exposure in leaders in hot themes at good enough entries. I am not concerned with getting perfect entries
because the opportunity cost of not having enough long exposure in this environment is too costly. Being a
perfectionist when the market gods are extremely generous does not pay. Finding exposure at good spots and
sitting still is the most difficult part in this time period. In forgiving environments, winners take care of themselves
and will generally reward you week after week as long as you don't micromanage them. After my first sell into
strength, I want to let the market stop me out on the remaining because I don't know how high and long these
runners will go.
"Easy Money" Environment
o Characteristics: Strong breadth that continuously improved, predictable and consistent follow through in overnight
sessions (strong closes opened higher the following day), speculative themes (EVs, SPACs, Meta, Bitcoin miners, etc)
were on the menu indicating buyers had a risk-on appetite, and minimal divergence between the indices and
individual stocks.
•
•
November 1, 2021 - November 19, 2021
•
How I reacted:
o Very little trading activity during this time. The speculative themes seem to have gone as fast as they came. I was
mainly on auto-pilot for the positions I put on in the 2nd half of October. Account was about 10-15% cash at this
time and rest in longs. For the positions that I already took some profits on, I hold until they start closing below the
10MA or 20MA. For the positions that I haven't taken any profits on yet, I just hold. I am trying to ride out a delicate
balance of locking in some profits but avoid the risk of being too aggressive with peeling off exposure at the risk of
not being able to get back in.
•
Red flags during this time:
o Breakouts weren't as consistent. SPY/QQQ were holding up but started to see more stocks in my focus list red ... this
divergence started to feel a bit reminiscent of March - October. IWM rolling over and spending time below a
declining 10MA was a red flag. In addition, I did not like seeing BTC break down on 11-16 as this is generally seen as
a risk-on asset. The unforgiving post-ER reactions mentioned earlier was another major red flag but my current
positions were acting okay so I wanted to see more concerns emerge before acting prematurely.
•
Setups I look for and examples (around this time period):
o Same setups as I would in an "easy money" environment listed above. Despite some of the red flags, I am not
looking to short yet because I still have longs on. If I feel the markets are going risk-off then I want to raise cash first
and move to a place of neutral. I may put on a couple small short positions while net-long but I find it much simpler
to move in a linear direction (long --> cash --> short --> cash --> long). Every time I have half of my account in shorts
and the other half in longs, I become conflicted with what I want the markets to do .. it's just messy and confusing.
•
Goal during this time:
o Protect profits. Add to current longs if the setup and price action is there. Very selective with adding new names at
this point because of the red flags mentioned.
•
End of week positions:
o Primary broker (11-19) - https://postimg.cc/FfBtptrK
•
•
November 20, 2021 - December 3, 2021
"The Intermission"
o Characteristics: Breadth continued to improve for the first week but began to break down in the half of the second
week. Breakouts were becoming more difficult to find follow through. Some of the speculative names were breaking
down or putting in some sort of blow-off (examples: HUT RIVN). This time period was when we began to see several
harsh reactions to former leaders' reported earnings (CELH on 11/12, ROKU on 11/3, SE on 11/16, RNG on 11/9,
PTON on 11/5, PYPL on 11/8). The violent post-ER reactions on a lot of these former growth monsters was the first
"smoke signal" for me.
"The Correction"
o 11/22 (Monday) - SPY and QQQ put in a new high in the morning and closed red at the lows of the day. Above
average volume. QQQ was rallying for a week prior to this and this felt like a bull trap for both SPY/QQQ. Given the
context leading up to this day, I adjusted portfolio to reflect what I believed to be a risk-off environment. Start
adding shorts to large cap leaders such as SE NVDA AAPL.
o EOD positions (11-22) - https://postimg.cc/0b2NST9F
o
o
o
11/26 (Friday) - Huge gap down. First day in a long time where they wack everything. Short speculative themes via
puts. Short mega cap tech via puts in anticipation (FB) that they go after this group next. Long puts in Bitcoin ETF
anticipating more problems in this risk-on group. Put on a few feeler-size long positions in U and two groups I am
anticipating may do well (ZM MP).
EOD positions (11-26) - https://postimg.cc/TpXS1bX3
o
o
o
o
12/3 (Friday) - Risk-off week. Distribution is getting more broad based. Speculative groups getting taken to the
woodshed. Seeing APPL as the last man standing is a red flag. Add more to shorts in speculative themes such as
AMC, LCID and FSR. Get long treasury bonds.
EOD positions (12-3) - https://postimg.cc/N5m9t56t