MACRO RESEARCH Accounting & Tax Policy Quantitative Research Portfolio Strategy April 4, 2014 ACCOUNTING TOP 10: HOW TO SPOT PP&E EARNINGS MANAGEMENT This is our third report on the Top 10 accounting items to watch for and how to spot them. Over the coming weeks and months, we will publish a new topic each Friday. Previous report topics include Cookie Jar Reserves and Pensions (click for links). How Do Companies Use PP&E and Depreciation to Manage Earnings? Capital spending is closely monitored by investors for its implications to not only future company profitability, but also overall economic activity. What we find less scrutinized is the “Day 1” accounting for such spending as this will have long lasting implications for reported earnings. In fact, in an era of computer power with Excel spreadsheets, investors faithfully assume a depreciation expense calculation is simple with little opportunity to manage earnings. However, the three primary inputs into depreciation expense (depreciation method, asset life, and residual value) are rife with management assumptions. In this regard, companies have various levers that may be used to boost earnings and, in this note, we explain each in turn. Watch for Changes in Depreciation Policies and Assumptions. There is typically little, if any, economic benefit to changing a depreciation accounting method and, therefore, any changes impacting future depreciation expense should be viewed skeptically. Companies may try to mask real problems in the underlying business through a reduction in depreciation expense. Potential ways in which companies manage depreciation expense lower include: changing from a more conservative depreciation method (e.g. accelerated depreciation) to a less conservative method, extending estimated useful life assumptions, and/or increasing residual (salvage) value assumptions. How to Detect PP&E / Depreciation Earnings Management. Reading the accounting policies and PP&E footnote sections of company filings is vital to identifying aggressive policies and/or assumption changes. Additionally, our two favorite ratios used to detect potential depreciation earnings management include Gross PP&E to LTM Depreciation Expense (average estimated asset life) and LTM Depreciation to LTM Sales. We use these ratios for historical comparison and across companies within the same industry. In this report, we illustrate how to interpret the aforementioned pension accounting issues using historical disclosures from Weis Markets (WMK) and Yellow Roadway (YRCW). Chris Senyek, CFA, CPA Adam Calingasan, CFA, CPA Clinton Chang, CFA, CPA (646) 845-0759 csenyek@wolferesearch.com (646) 845-0757 acalingasan@wolferesearch.com (646) 845-0756 cchang@wolferesearch.com Chip Miller, CFA, CPA Natalie Capasso (646) 845-0752 (646) 845-0753 cmiller@wolferesearch.com ncapasso@wolferesearch.com This report is limited solely for the use of clients of Wolfe Research. Please refer to the DISCLOSURES located at the end of this report for applicable disclosures. WolfeResearch.com Accounting & Tax Policy Page 1 of 5 HOW COMPANIES MAY USE PP&E TO BOOST EARNINGS We are always mindful (read: skeptical) when companies make voluntary changes to their accounting policies or estimates. Most times, there is little economic benefit gained from making the changes and it entails an internal burden to the firm’s accounting staff. However, the change may result in a material impact to earnings going forward. Companies may boost future earnings by changing PP&E depreciable lives, residual values, and/or depreciation methods. Over the years, we’ve found that these types of changes often signal trouble around the corner. After all, what CFO would initiate a voluntary accounting change to lower earnings! GAAP requires that PP&E’s cost to be allocated as depreciation expense in earnings over the asset’s estimated useful life in a “systematic and rational manner.” The most common method of allocating costs is straight-line depreciation. Other forms of depreciation are allowed, notably methods that result in an accelerated depreciation amount (recognizing more depreciation expense during the earlier portion of the assets’ life). These so-called accelerated depreciation methods include sum of the year’s digits and double declining balance. Over 90% of companies use straight line depreciation. Companies must disclose the depreciation period and method for each material asset group. We suggest reviewing a company’s Form 10-K accounting policy section for any changes or unusual depreciation policies. Over the years, we’ve observed that a change in an asset’s depreciable life has sometimes been a precursor to deterioration in the company’s business fundamentals. GAAP also requires disclosure of any material changes in depreciable lives, residual values, or depreciation methods. Oddly, PP&E’s residual value amounts are not required disclosures. As an example of a company changing its depreciation policy, below is an excerpt from the filings of Weis Markets (WMK). In 2012, the company changed from an accelerated to straight-line depreciation method, resulting in a $0.06 increase to EPS in the quarter the change took place. Example of Depreciation Methodology Change: Weis Markets In the ‘Q1 2012, the Company changed its accounting policy for property and equipment. Property and equipment continue to be recorded at cost. Prior to January 1, 2012, the Company provided for depreciation of buildings and improvements and equipment using accelerated methods. Effective January 1, 2012, the Company changed its method of depreciation for this group of assets from the accelerated methods to straight-line. Management deemed the change preferable because the straight-line method will more accurately reflect the pattern of usage and the expected benefits of such assets. Management also considered that the change will provide greater consistency with the depreciation methods used by other companies in the Company's industry. The change was accounted for as a change in estimate. The net book value of assets acquired prior to January 1, 2012 with useful lives remaining will be depreciated using the straight-line method prospectively. Depreciation expense in the first quarter 2012 would have been $2.9 million greater if the company had continued using accelerated methods. Had accelerated methods continued to be used, after considering the impact of income taxes, the effect would decrease net income by $1.6 million or $0.06 per share. Source: Wolfe Research Accounting & Tax Policy Research; Company filings. CHANGING DEPRECIATION ASSUMPTIONS Changing assumptions used to calculate depreciation expense is one method to increase earnings and has been the underlying cause of numerous historical accounting restatements. Two ways to lower annual depreciation expense are to extend an asset’s depreciation period (life) or increase its residual value. Under GAAP, residual value or depreciable life changes are accounted for prospectively, and increasing an asset’s depreciable life does not change the total depreciation expense amount recognized. Instead, it defers a portion of current depreciation into future periods as a smaller annual amount of the asset is expensed over a longer time period. Similarly, an increase in an asset’s residual value will reduce the depreciable amount of the asset (original cost less residual value) and, therefore, lower depreciation expense. WolfeResearch.com Accounting & Tax Policy Page 2 of 5 April 4, 2014 CHANGES TO ESTIMATED LIVES AND SALVAGE VALUES Changing an asset's depreciable life or residual value is uncommon and, therefore, we use it as a strong signal of possible deeper issues at a company. Below, we review Yellow Roadway's (now YRC Worldwide [YRCW]) accounting issues and the financial ratio warning signs. First, YRCW lowered its 2006 earnings guidance in March 2006. Approximately six months later, beginning in ‘Q3 2006, the company changed equipment depreciable lives from 3-14 years to 7-20 years and modified certain salvage values. This change increased EPS by $0.27 in 2006 ($26 million pre-tax). YRCW disclosed the accounting changes in the footnotes of its 'Q3 2006 10-Q. However, the average depreciable life ratio (gross PP&E divided by LTM depreciation expense) also flagged possible issues. As shown below, this ratio jumped from 11.1 years to 13.0 years in 'Q3 2006, the quarter in which the depreciable life changes occurred. Yellow Roadway's Depreciation Changes “In 2006, the Company revised the estimated useful lives and salvage values of certain classes of property and equipment to more appropriately reflect how the assets are expected to be used over time. During 2006, the Company increased revenue equipment lives to a range of ten to twenty years from three to fourteen years and modified certain salvage values. If the Company had not changed the estimated useful lives and salvage values of such property and equipment, additional depreciation expense of approximately $26.3 million would have been recorded during the year ended December 31, 2006. Accordingly, the changes in estimates resulted in an increase in income from continuing operations of approximately $26.3 million (a $16.0 million increase in net income) for the year ended December 31, 2006. The change in estimate also increased diluted earnings per share by $0.27 for the year ended December 31, 2006.” Yellow Roadway Stock Price (000s of USD) $400 Lowers 2006 earnings guidance 1,800 $350 1,600 1,400 $300 $250 2,000 1,200 1,000 10-Q disclosure of depr. change (11/9) $200 $150 Volume Average Depreciable Life (Yrs) 'Q1 2006 'Q2 2006 'Q3 2006 'Q4 2006 'Q1 2007 'Q2 2007 10.9 11.1 13.0 13.6 14.6 14.6 800 600 400 200 $100 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 0 Source: Wolfe Research Accounting & Tax Policy Research; Company filings; Standard & Poor’s; FactSet. Securities and Exchange Commission. WolfeResearch.com Accounting & Tax Policy Page 3 of 5 April 4, 2014 RATIOS TO DETECT POTENTIAL PP&E / DEPRECIATION EARNINGS MANAGEMENT In addition to reading the accounting policy sections for any material changes, we recommend investors review a few financial ratios that help detect changing depreciation policies and residual values. Gross PP&E and Accumulated Depreciation balances may not always be readily available on a quarterly basis. However, 10-K annual reports provide the most detailed disclosures on PP&E balances and depreciation. The ratios below should be analyzed in comparison to companies within the same industry as well as year-over-year changes to determine if there has been a more subtle undisclosed change in asset lives, mix shift in asset types, or aging of asset base. The average asset depreciable life ratio is helpful in spotting changes in assumptions (either useful lives or residual values). Within a sector or industry group, comparing depreciation expense to sales assists in identifying companies with more lenient depreciation expense policies. Detecting Potential Earnings Management through PP&E 𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟. 𝐿𝑖𝑓𝑒 = 𝐷𝑒𝑝. 𝑡𝑜 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑃𝑃&𝐸 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 % 𝑜𝑓 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 = Lower ratio when comparing two companies with similar profiles may indicate more aggressive depreciation policies / assumptions 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑃𝑃&𝐸 𝑅𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = Longer depreciable life = lower depreciation expense = higher earnings 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑃&𝐸 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒 Higher % of assets depreciated = more potential need for upcoming capex Fewer remaining depreciable years = greater potential need for upcoming capex Source: Wolfe Research Accounting & Tax Policy Research. WolfeResearch.com Accounting & Tax Policy Page 4 of 5 April 4, 2014 DISCLOSURE SECTION Wolfe Research, LLC does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks it covers. Outperform, Peer Perform and Underperform are not the respective equivalents of Buy, Hold and Sell but represent relative weightings as defined above. To satisfy regulatory requirements, Outperform has been designated to correspond with Buy, Peer Perform has been designated to correspond with Hold and Underperform has been designated to correspond with Sell. Wolfe Research Securities and Wolfe Research, LLC have adopted the use of Wolfe Research as brand names. Wolfe Research Securities, a member of FINRA (www.finra.org) is the broker-dealer affiliate of Wolfe Research, LLC and is responsible for the contents of this material. Any analysts publishing these reports are dually employed by Wolfe Research, LLC and Wolfe Research Securities. The content of this report is to be used solely for informational purposes and should not be regarded as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell a security, financial instrument or service discussed herein. Opinions in this communication constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date and time of this report and are subject to change without notice. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Wolfe Research and its affiliates, including but not limited to Wolfe Research Securities, makes no representation that it is complete or accurate. The information provided in this communication is not designed to replace a recipient's own decision-making processes for assessing a proposed transaction or investment involving a financial instrument discussed herein. Recipients are encouraged to seek financial advice from their financial advisor regarding the appropriateness of investing in a security or financial instrument referred to in this report and should understand that statements regarding the future performance of the financial instruments or the securities referenced herein may not be realized. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any location where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law, or which would subject Wolfe Research, LLC or any affiliate to any registration requirement within such location. For additional important disclosures, please see www.WolfeResearch.com/Disclosures. The views expressed in Wolfe Research, LLC research reports with regards to sectors and/or specific companies may from time to time be inconsistent with the views implied by inclusion of those sectors and companies in other Wolfe Research, LLC analysts’ research reports and modeling screens. Wolfe Research communicates with clients across a variety of mediums of the clients’ choosing including emails, voice blasts and electronic publication to our proprietary website. Copyright © Wolfe Research, LLC 2014. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Wolfe Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Wolfe Research, LLC. This report is limited for the sole use of clients of Wolfe Research. Authorized users have received an encryption decoder which legislates and monitors the access to Wolfe Research, LLC content. Any distribution of the content produced by Wolfe Research, LLC will violate the understanding of the terms of our relationship. WolfeResearch.com Accounting & Tax Policy Page 5 of 5 April 4, 2014