Semester III 306 – International Business Economics UNIT1 International Trade: Trade Theories , Ricardo and Comparative advantage, Heckscher Ohlin model of factor abundance , Krugman’s model of IntraIndustry Trade Introduction: INTERNATIONAL TRADE We live in a global marketplace. The food on your table might include fresh fruit from Chile, cheese from France, and bottled water from Scotland. Your wireless phone might have been made in Taiwan or Korea. The clothes you wear might be designed in Italy and manufactured in China. The American statesman Benjamin Franklin (1706–1790) once wrote: “No nation was ever ruined by trade.” Many economists would express their attitudes toward international trade in an even more positive manner. The evidence that international trade confers overall benefits on economies is pretty strong. There are very few models of trade that include all five reasons for trade simultaneously. The purpose of each model is to establish a basis for trade and then to use that model to identify the expected effects of trade on prices, profits, incomes, and individual welfare. In the real world, trade takes place because of a combination of all these different reasons. Each single model provides only a glimpse of some of the effects that might arise. Consequently, we should expect that a combination of the different outcomes that are presented in different models is the true characterization of the real world. Unfortunately, because of this, understanding the complexities of the real world is still more of an art than a science. Reason for Trade #1: Differences in Technology Advantageous trade can occur between countries if the countries differ in their technological abilities to produce goods and services. Technology refers to the techniques used to turn resources (labor, capital, land) into outputs (goods and services). The basis for trade in the Ricardian model of comparative advantage in "The Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage" is differences in technology. Reason for Trade #2: Differences in Resource Endowments Advantageous trade can occur between countries if the countries differ in their endowments of resources. Resource endowments refer to the skills and abilities of a country’s workforce, the natural resources available within its borders (minerals, farmland, etc.), and the sophistication of its capital stock (machinery, infrastructure, communications systems). The basis for trade in both the pure exchange model in "The Pure Exchange Model of Trade" and the Heckscher-Ohlin model in "The Heckscher-Ohlin (Factor Proportions) Model" is differences in resource endowments. Reason for Trade #3: Differences in Demand Advantageous trade can occur between countries if demands or preferences differ between countries. Individuals in different countries may have different preferences or demands for various products. For example, the Chinese are likely to demand more rice than Americans and the Japanese more fish than Americans would, even if they all faced the same prices. There is no formal trade model with demand differences, although the monopolistic competition model in "Economies of Scale and International Trade" does include a demand for variety that can be based on differences in tastes between consumers. Reason for Trade #4: Existence of Economies of Scale in Production The existence of economies of scale in production is sufficient to generate advantageous trade between two countries. Economies of scale refer to a production process in which production costs fall as the scale of production rises. This feature of production is also known as “increasing returns to scale.” Reason for Trade #5: Existence of Government Policies Government tax and subsidy programs alter the prices charged for goods and services. These changes can be sufficient to generate advantages in production of certain products. In these circumstances, advantageous trade may arise solely due to differences in government policies across countries. "Domestic Policies and International Trade", "Production Subsidies as a Reason for Trade" and "Consumption Taxes as a Reason for Trade" provide several examples in which domestic tax or subsidy policies can induce international trade. RICARDO AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE Ricardo used the theory of comparative advantage to argue against Great Britain’s protectionist Corn Laws, which restricted the import of wheat from 1815 to 1846. In arguing for free trade, the political economist stated that countries were better off specializing in what they enjoy a comparative advantage in and importing the good in which they lack a comparative advantage. He introduced this theory for the first time in his book “On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation”, 1817, using a simple numerical example concerning the trade between Portugal and the England What is an Opportunity Cost? To understand the theory behind a comparative advantage, it is crucial to understand the idea of an opportunity cost. An opportunity cost is the foregone benefits from choosing one alternative over others. For example, a laborer can use one hour of work to produce either 1 cloth or 3 wines. We can think of opportunity cost as follows: What is the forgone benefit from choosing to produce one cloth or one wine? Therefore: By producing one cloth, the opportunity cost is 3 wines. By producing one wine, the opportunity cost is ⅓ cloth. Ricardian Model Assumptions The modern version of the Ricardian Model assumes that there are two countries, producing two goods, using one factor of production, usually labor. The model is a general equilibrium model in which all markets (i.e., goods and factors) are perfectly competitive. The goods produced are assumed to be homogeneous across countries and firms within an industry. Ricardian Model Assumptions Goods can be costlessly shipped between countries (i.e., there are no transportation costs). Labor is homogeneous within a country but may have different productivities across countries. This implies that the production technology is assumed to differ across countries. Ricardian Model Assumptions Labor is costlessly mobile across industries within a country but is immobile across countries. Full employment of labor is also assumed. Consumers (the laborers) are assumed to maximize utility subject to an income constraint. Practical Example: Comparative Advantage Consider two countries (France and the United States) that use labor as an input to produce two goods: wine and cloth. In France, one hour of a worker’s labor can produce either 5 cloths or 10 wines. In the US, one hour of a worker’s labor can produce either 20 cloths or 20 wines. It is important to note that the United States enjoys an absolute advantage in the production of cloth and wine. With one labor hour, a worker can produce either 20 cloths or 20 wines in the United States compared to France’s 5 cloths or 10 wines. The United States enjoys an absolute advantage in the production of cloth and wine. To determine the comparative advantages of France and the United States, we must first determine the opportunity cost for each output: France: Opportunity cost of 1 cloth = 2 wine Opportunity cost of 1 wine = ½ cloth The United States: Opportunity cost of 1 cloth = 1 wine Opportunity cost of 1 wine = 1 cloth Comparative Advantage and its Benefits in Free Trade How does identifying each country’s comparative advantage aid in understanding its benefits in free trade? First, let’s assume that the maximum amount of labor hours is 100 hours. In France: If all labor hours went into wine, 1,000 barrels of wine could be produced. If all labor hours went into cloth, 500 pieces of cloth could be produced. In the United States: If all labor hours went into wine, 2,000 barrels of wine could be produced. If all labor hours went into cloth, 2,000 pieces of cloth could be produced. Following Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage in free trade, if each country specializes in what they enjoy a comparative advantage in and imports the other good, they will be better off. Recall that: France enjoys a comparative advantage in wine. The United States enjoys a comparative advantage in cloth. In France, the country specializes in wine and produces 1,000 barrels. Recall that the opportunity cost of 1 barrel of wine in the United States is 1 piece of cloth. Therefore, the United States would be open to accepting a trade of 1 wine for up to 1 piece of cloth. The potential gains from trade for Europe by specializing in wine is represented by the arrow: In France, the country specializes in wine and produces 1,000 barrels. Recall that the opportunity cost of 1 barrel of wine in the United States is 1 piece of cloth. Therefore, the United States would be open to accepting a trade of 1 wine for up to 1 piece of cloth. The potential gains from trade for the United States by specializing in cloth is represented by the arrow: In the United States, the country specializes in cloth and produces 2,000 pieces. Recall that the opportunity cost of 1 piece of cloth in France is 2 barrels of wine. Therefore, France would be open to accepting a trade of 1 cloth for up to 2 barrels of wine. Therefore, using the theory of comparative advantage, a country that specializes in their comparative advantage in free trade is able to realize higher output gains by exporting the good in which they enjoy a comparative advantage and importing the good in which they suffer a comparative disadvantage. CRITICISMS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ○ ○ Cost of trade. To export goods to India imposes transport costs. External costs of trade. Exporting goods leads to increased pollution from ‘air-freight’ and can contribute to environmental costs not included in models which only include private costs and benefits. CRITICISMS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ○ Diminishing returns/diseconomies of scale. Specialisation means a country will increase the output of one particular good. However, for some industries increasing output may lead to diminishing returns. For example, if Portugal has a comparative advantage in wine, it may run out of suitable land for growing grapes. A contemporary example is Mongolia. Mongolia was believed to have a comparative advantage in cattle farming. However, according to Erik Reinert opening of markets to international competition in 1991 led to an increased size of animal herds, but this led to over-grazing and loss of grazing land. [Reinert, E (2004) “Globalization and economic development: an Alternative Perspective”, Edward Elgar pub. p 158.] CRITICISMS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ○ ○ Static comparative advantage. A developing economy, in subSaharan-Africa, may have a comparative advantage in producing primary products (metals, agriculture), but these products have a low-income elasticity of demand, and it can hold back an economy from diversifying into more profitable industries, such as manufacturing. Dutch disease. Dutch disease is a phenomenon where countries specialise in producing primary products (oil/natural gas) but doing this can harm the long-term performance of the economy. In the 1970s, the Netherlands specialised in producing natural gas, but this led to the neglect of manufacturing and when the gas industry declined, the economy was left behind its near neighbours. CRITICISMS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ○ Gravity theory. Proposed by Jan Tinbergen, in 1962, this states that international trade is influenced by two factors – the relative size of economies and economic distance. The model suggests that countries of similar size will be attracted to trade with each other. Economic distance depends on geographical distance and trade barriers. The implication is that countries economically close and of similar size will engage in similar levels of bilateral trade. It also suggests trade is more likely between countries which are geographically close. CRITICISMS OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ○ ○ Trade – not a Pareto improvement. Trade can lead to an increase in net economic welfare. However, it doesn’t mean that everyone will become better off. Some workers in uncompetitive industries may lose out and struggle to gain employment in new industries. Complexity of global trade. Models of comparative advantage usually focus on two countries and two goods, but in the real world, there are multiple goods and countries. Increasingly there is growing demand for a variety of goods and choice – rather than competing on simple price. The Heckscher-Ohlin Model Introduction Eli Heckscher (1919) and Bertil Ohlin (1933) found the basis for crucial and substantial theoretical developments of international trade by emphasizing the relationships between the composition of countries’ factor endowments and commodity trade patterns. The Heckscher-Ohlin (H-O) theory is the simplest explanation for why countries involve in trade of goods and services with other countries. Introduction Heckscher-Ohlin model, which is the general equilibrium mathematical model of international trade theory, is built on the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage by making prediction on trade patterns and production of goods based on the factor endowments of nations Assumptions of the Heckscher- Ohlin Model ○ ○ ○ The following assumptions pertain to the 2*2 model of Heckscher-Ohlin. It is assumed that there are only two nations (1 and 2) with two goods for trade (X and Y) and two factors of production (capital and labour). For producing the goods, both nations use the same technology and they use uniform factors of production. Assumptions of the Heckscher- Ohlin Model ○ ○ ○ In both countries, good X is labour intensive and Y is capital intensive. The tastes and preferences of both nations are the same (both countries can be represented in the same indifference curve). In both nations, the assumption of constant returns to scale is applicable for the production of goods X and Y. Assumptions of the Heckscher- Ohlin Model ○ ○ ○ In both nations, specialization in production is not complete. Goods and factor markets in both nations are perfectly competitive. There exists perfect mobility of factors of production within each country though international mobility is not possible. Assumptions of the Heckscher- Ohlin Model ○ ○ ○ There are no restrictions or limitations to the free flow of international trade. That is, there exist no transportation costs, tariffs, or like other obstructions either to control or to restrict the exports or imports. It is assumed that there exists full employment of all resources in both nations. That is, there will not be any under employed resource in either nation. The exports and imports between the nations are balanced. It means that the total value of the exports will be equal to the total value of imports in both nations. The physical definition of factor abundance is based on the relative physical amounts of the factors present in the country, e.g., the difference in the capital/labor ratios. The country whose K/L ratio is the largest is defined to be the capital-abundant country. The price definition is based on relative prices of the factors rather than on measurements of their presence in the country. It is hypothesized that the relatively-abundant factor in a country should be relatively cheaper compared to a second country. Thus, according to this definition, if the ratio of the price of capital to the price of labor is lower in one country (A) compared to a second country (B), country A is said to be the capitalabundant country. Heckscher-Ohlin theory of foreign trade can be stated in the form of two theorems namely: 1) Heckscher-Ohlin Trade Theorem: The HeckscherOhlin Trade Theorem establishes that a country tends to specialize in the export of a commodity whose production requires intensive use of its abundant resources and imports a commodity whose production requires intensive use of its scarce resources. Heckscher-Ohlin theory of foreign trade can be stated in the form of two theorems namely: 2) The Factor-Price Equalization Theorem: The Factor- Price Equalization Theorem states that international trade tends to equalize the factor prices between the trading nations In the absence of foreign trade, it is quite likely that factor prices are different in different countries. International trade equalizes the absolute and relative returns to homogenous factors of production and their prices. In other words, the wages of homogeneous labour and returns to homogeneous capital will be the same in all those nations which engage in trading. ○ ○ The factor price equalization theorem says that if the prices of the output of goods are equalized between countries engaged in free trade, then the price of the input factors will also be equalized between countries. This implies that the wages and rents will converge across the countries with free trade, or in other words, trade in goods is a perfect substitute for trade in factors, or in other words, trade in goods is a perfect substitute for trade in factors, The HeckscherOhlin theorem, thus, postulates that foreign trade eliminates the factor price differentials ○ ○ The factor price equalization theorem is in fact a corollary to the Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory. It holds only so long as Heckcher-Ohlin Theorem holds. When the prices of the output of goods are equalized between countries as they move to free trade, then the prices of the factors (capital and labour) will also be equalized between countries. ○ ○ It means that product mobility and factor mobility become perfect substitutes. Whichever factor receives the lowest price before two countries integrate economically and effectively become one market will therefore tend to become more expensive relative to other factors in the economy, while those with the highest price will tend to become cheaper Limitations of Heckscher Ohlin's H-O Theory Heckscher Ohlin's Theory has been criticised on basis of following grounds :1. Unrealistic Assumptions : Besides the usual assumptions of two countries, two commodities, no transport cost, etc. Ohlin's theory also assumes no qualitative difference in factors of production, identical production function, constant return to scale, etc. All these assumptions makes the theory unrealistic one. Limitations of Heckscher Ohlin's H-O Theory 2. Restrictive : Ohlin's theory is not free from constrains. His theory includes only two commodities, two countries and two factors. Thus it is a restrictive one. 3. One-Sided Theory : According to Ohlin's theory, supply plays a significant role than demand in determining factor prices. But if demand forces are more significant, a capital abundant country will export labour intensive good as the price of capital will be high due to high demand for capital. Limitations of Heckscher Ohlin's H-O Theory 4. Static in Nature : Like Ricardian Theory the H-O Model is also static in nature. The theory is based on a given state of economy and with a given production function and does not accept any change. 5. Wijnholds's Criticism : According to Wijnholds, it is not the factor prices that determine the costs and commodity prices but it is commodity prices that determine the factor prices. Limitations of Heckscher Ohlin's H-O Theory 6. Consumers' Demand ignored : Ohlin forgot an important fact that commodity prices are also influenced by the consumers' demand. 7. Haberler's Criticism : According to Haberler, Ohlin's theory is based on partial equilibrium. It fails to give a complete, comprehensive and general equilibrium analysis. Limitations of Heckscher Ohlin's H-O Theory 8. Leontief Paradox : American economist Dr. Wassily Leontief tested H-O theory under U.S.A conditions. He found out that U.S.A exports labour intensive goods and imports capital intensive goods, but U.S.A being a capital abundant country must export capital intensive goods and import labour intensive goods than to produce them at home. This situation is called Leontief Paradox which negates H-O Theory. Limitations of Heckscher Ohlin's H-O Theory 9. Other Factors Neglected : Factor endowment is not the sole factor influencing commodity price and international trade. The H-O Theory neglects other factors like technology, technique of production, natural factors, different qualities of labour, etc., which can also influence the international trade. KRUGMAN’S MODEL OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE Krugman (1979, 1980) Monopolistic competition is a particular market structure where many key (theoretical) contributions were made in the 1970s. Probably the most famous reference is Dixit and Stiglitz (1977) who developed the CES (constant elasticity of substitution) case. Paul Krugman saw the potential of these developments for the international trade literature. He combined it with increasing returns to scale (scale economies). This leads to intra-industry trade (as opposed to inter-industry trade based on neoclassical models of comparative advantage such as Ricardo and HeckscherOhlin). His breakthrough contributions along those lines (including applications to economic geography) eventually won Krugman the Nobel prize in 2008 (as a rare solo recipient). Key ingredients for the new trade model (Krugman 1979, Nobel prize in 2008) 1) Goods are differentiated, i.e. not strictly identical. 2) We allow for imperfect competition: “Monopolistic competition” firms can influence the price they charge, but no strategic interaction. 3) Firms enjoy increasing returns to scale, by which we mean that the average costs for a firm fall as more output is produced. What are the main features of .monopolistic competition.? Monopolistic competition is a model of an imperfectly competitive industry. It is a special case of oligopoly. It assumes that: Each firm can differentiate its product from the product of competitors (no homogeneous goods). These differentiated products (or .varieties.) are good but not perfect substitutes. They may differ slightly in terms of branding, quality or location. Example: different varieties of toothpaste on supermarket shelves. Thus, there is .competition. but not perfect competition. Each firm ignores the impact of changing its own price on the prices set by its competitors (no strategic interaction): even though each firm faces competition, it behaves as if it were a monopolist and sets the profit-maximising price for its product. But in the long run, the entry of new firms (i.e., new varieties) drives profits down to zero. Monopoly profits rarely go uncontested because they attract market entry of Other firms. A firm in a monopolistically competitive industry is expected: to sell more the larger the total sales of the industry and the higher the prices charged by its rivals, to sell less the larger the number of firms in the industry and the higher its own price. ○ Define international trade and describe how it differs from internal trade? 2. Critically examine the arguments for and against international trade? 3. Do you think international trade is always beneficial ?Substantiate your arguments? 4. What are the major arguments against liberal trade? 5. Do you think the developing countries will be disproportionately disadvantaged if they engage in liberal trade? 6. What consequences do you foresee for the industrial sector if a nation has greater openness of trade? 7. Using Ricardian model, explain how two countries can gain from trade? What does the Ricardian model suggest regarding the effect of trade? 8. What are the underlying reasons that explain the differences among nations? Explain the predictions from different theories in international trade. 9. Describe the reasons why international trade is opposed by many people? 10. “Specialization in production always increases the prosperity of a country” Do you agree with the statement? Substantiate your answer. 11. Explain the Heckscher-Ohlin theory of international trade. 12. Compare the classical and modem theories of international trade.