Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 2 In Situ Estimates of Freezing/Melting Point Depression in Agricultural Soils Using Permittivity and Temperature Measurements 3 R. Pardo Lara1, A. A. Berg1, J. Warland2, Erica Tetlock3 4 1Department 5 2School 6 7 3National 1 of Geography, Environment and Geomatics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada. of Environmental Science, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada. Hydrology Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Corresponding author: Renato Pardo Lara (rpardo@uoguelph.ca) Key Points: • The freeze-thaw response of a widely used soil moisture probe was investigated and permittivity soil freezing/thawing curves were identified. • A logistic growth model was fitted to the permittivity soil freezing/thawing curves yielding freezing/melting point depression estimates. • In situ estimates of the freezing/melting point depression and frozen water saturation provided for the Kenaston Soil Moisture Network. 1 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 18 Abstract 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 36 We present a method to characterize soil moisture freeze-thaw events and freezing/melting point depression using permittivity and temperature measurements, readily available from in situ sources. In cold regions soil freeze-thaw processes play a critical role in the surface energy and water balance, with implications ranging from agricultural yields to natural disasters. Although monitoring of the soil moisture phase state is of critical importance, there is an inability to interpret soil moisture instrumentation in frozen conditions. To address this gap, we investigated the freeze-thaw response of a widely used soil moisture probe, the HydraProbe (HP), in the laboratory. Soil freezing curves (SFC) and soil thawing curves (STC) were identified using the relationship between soil permittivity and temperature. The permittivity SFC/STC were fit using a logistic growth model to estimate the freezing/melting point depression (ππ⁄π ) and its spread (π ). Laboratory results showed the fitting routine requires permittivity changes greater than 3.8 to provide robust estimates and suggested a temperature bias is inherent in horizontally placed HPs. We tested the method using field measurements collected over the last seven years from Environment and Climate Change Canada and University of Guelph’s Kenaston Soil Moisture Network in Saskatchewan, Canada. By dividing the time series into freeze-thaw events and then into individual transitions the permittivity SFC/STC were identified. The freezing and melting point depression for the network was estimated as ππ/π = −0.35 ± 0.2, with ππ = −0.41 ± 0.22 °C and ππ = −0.29 ± 0.16 °C respectively. 37 1 Introduction 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 Nearly all land area above 45° N undergoes a seasonal transition between frozen and thawed conditions each year, with even more regions experiencing short-term diurnal freezethaw (F/T) events (Rowlandson et al., 2018). The spatial distribution and timing of soil freezethaw events are critical factors affecting terrestrial water, carbon, and energy balance with consequential effects on hydrological, climatic, ecological, and biogeochemical processes (e.g.: Wagner-Riddle et al. 2017). Hydrologically, this knowledge is critical to predict the fate of snowmelt and thus the water balance of a watershed or field. In terms of groundwater, the dominant effect of freeze-thaw events is the extent of hydraulic isolation associated with the freezing front. The spatial and temporal occurrence of freeze-thaw events is seasonally variable and may be modified under a future changing climate (Ireson et al. 2013). Soil freeze-thaw monitoring is critical for predicting soil infiltration capacity and spring runoff, with implications ranging from the duration of the agricultural growing season and prediction of inundation events (Gray et al. 2001) to water futures. There is also a need to monitor these events at larger scales such as those typically used in models (grid cells) and management (field scales). Currently, however, there is no simple in-situ method to continuously measure these phenomena directly in the field. 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 In situ, soil freeze-thaw state has typically been inferred from proxy measurements of air and/or soil temperatures and classified based on a 0 °C threshold. (McColl et al. 2016; Roy et al. 2015; Podest, McDonald, and Kimball 2014; Rautiainen et al. 2014). However, over the terrestrial temperature range, soil moisture is known to occur in both liquid and solid states at the same time (Petit 1893; Bouyoucos and McCool 1916), a fact that is obscured by classification between frozen and thawed states. Moreover, temperature observations alone are not ideal for ground freeze-thaw classification. Soil moisture exhibits freezing point depression dependent on its liquid water content, textural composition, solute concentration, and the pore pressure of the 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 2 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 62 63 64 soil (Petit 1893; Mousson 1858; Daanen, Misra, and Thompson 2011). Furthermore, the equilibrium freezing point differs throughout the soil water, so the process of freezing or thawing of soils generally takes place over a wide range of temperatures. 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 The phenomena of freezing point depression has been investigated in the laboratory by way of the soil-freezing-curve (SFC; Koopmans & Miller, 1966), which shows how unfrozen soil moisture in a saturated soil reduces with temperature below 0 °C. SFCs have been well studied in laboratory settings using a variety of instrumentation ranging from tensiometers and calorimeters to TDR and NMR (Koopmans and Miller 1966; Yoshikawa and Overduin 2005; Liu and Yu 2013; Watanabe and Mizoguchi 2002; Wen et al. 2012; Tian et al. 2018; Qiang Cheng et al. 2014). These studies are generally performed on a few, relatively small, disturbed soil samples which are saturated and compacted. The data acquired using these methods is usually limited in either its time or temperature resolution. More notably, these experiments are performed at or near thermal equilibrium, by quasi-static or rapid cooling processes. More recently, the hysteretic behavior between the freezing and thawing processes has led to the definition of the soil-thawing-curve (STC; Zhou et al. 2019). 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 Recently, dielectric reflectometry devices have been investigated for use in soil freezing conditions. Sun et al., (2012) presented a method for observing the soil freeze–thaw cycle using a frequency domain permittivity sensor designed for use in access tubes and Cheng et al., (2014) verified its feasibility in-situ, however this was based on bi-weekly measurements. Kelleners & Norton (2012) attempted to determine depthwise water retention using the relationship between freezing soil temperature and liquid soil water content measured with a coaxial impedance dielectric reflectometry. Both Kelleners & Norton and Sun et al., adopted dielectric mixing models to estimate the volumetric soil ice content. Williamson et al. (2018) classified the freezethaw state using relative thresholds based on frozen and thawed permittivity references. However, these methods do not explicitly consider freezing point depression. Although permittivity measurements can address the need for measurement of unfrozen water content in situ, the accuracy of instrumentation for this purpose has been brought into question (Ireson et al. 2013). 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 The experiments described here present a unique relationship for the identification of individual freeze-thaw events (transient or seasonal) in permittivity-temperature space using the HydraProbe (HP). The identified relationship is supported by independent Heat Pulse Probes (HPP) measurements in the laboratory. Since the primary driver for changes in soil permittivity measurements is the moisture content, this relationship links the degree of phase transition to the sub-freezing temperature yielding an event- and site-specific permittivity SFC or STC. We fit this relationship using a logistic growth model for two parameters, interpreted as estimates of the freezing point depression (Tf) and its temperature dispersion (π ). The HP is commonly used in distributed soil moisture sensing networks deployed in several parts of the world as part of agricultural, hydrologic, and climate studies. A substantial number of network sites are located in cold regions that are prone to soil water freezing. Lastly, we demonstrate the method on in situ data from one such network, the Kenaston Soil Moisture Network, located in the Brightwater Creek basin, Saskatchewan, Canada (Tetlock et al. 2019). 103 2 Materials and Methods 104 105 The experiments described utilize the HP for volume measurements of the soil relative permittivity and contact surface temperature measurements as well as HPPs for apparent heat 3 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 106 107 108 109 capacity measurements. The measurements were used to fit a proposed model of the relationship between permittivity and temperature during freeze-thaw transitions (permittivity SFC or STC) in the context of the HP. The model was also adapted and applied to seven years of field data from ECCC’s Kenaston soil moisture monitoring network in Saskatchewan, Canada. 110 2.1 Instrumentation 111 2.1.1 HydraProbe (HP) 112 113 114 115 116 117 The HP is a commercially available soil moisture sensor that uses coaxial impedance dielectric reflectometry resulting in high measurement accuracy that does not require calibration for most soils (e.g: Rowlandson et al. 2013). This method fully characterizes the dielectric spectrum using a radio frequency at 50 MHz. The sensing device has been found to be robust under a wide variety of field conditions and it provides simultaneous in-situ measurement values of soil permittivity, conductivity, and temperature (Seyfried et al. 2005). 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 The HP has four 0.3 cm diameter stainless steel tines that are 5.7 cm long, these tines protrude from a metal base plate 4.2 cm in diameter. Three tines form a circle 3.0 cm in diameter around a central tine. The base plate is part of the cylindrical head which houses the electronics that produce the 50 MHz signal transmitted to the protruding tines and measure temperature. The probe’s tines are used to measure the amplitude change of a reflected electromagnetic signal in volts. The ratio of incident and reflected voltages is used to numerically solve Maxwell’s equations, yielding the impedance and complex permittivity. The real component of the latter is used to estimate soil water content by way of an empirical calibration equation. The support for the soil permittivity ranges between approximately 50 to 110 cm3 and includes the soil between and surrounding the tines. The base plate must be flush with the soil as the temperature is measured using a thermistor in contact with the metal plate, yielding a support of approximately 7 cm2. 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 The primary driver for changes in soil permittivity measurements is the moisture content. The bulk soil permittivity is an average of the permittivities of the soil constituents (water, ice, soil, air) with different permittivities randomly distributed and oriented in a host (He et al. 2016). A study conducted by Seyfried et al. (2005) examined the relationship between volumetric water content and the real dielectric constant of the soil measured by HydraProbes. They conducted their experiment over a range of soil textures and investigated the use of a linear calibration equation between volumetric water content (π) and the square root of the real dielectric (√π); as shown in equation (1). 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 π = π΄√ππ + π΅ (1) Rowlandson et al. (2013) found the lowest root mean square errors resulted from calibrating the HydraProbes using individual equations for each field of their study area based on this linear relationship. 2.1.2 Heat Pulse Probes (HPP) In 2008, Ochsner and Baker monitored the soil heat flux under freezing and thawing conditions, demonstrating a theoretical basis for the measurement of the volume-specific apparent heat capacity (ππ ) using Heat Pulse Probes (HPP). HPP work by analyzing temperature changes at one or more temperature sensing needles, responding to a heat pulse applied from a 4 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 147 148 149 150 151 parallel line-heat source probe (Bristow, Kluitenberg, and Horton 1994). Since the specific heat capacity is not strictly associated with phase changes, the term apparent specific heat capacity is employed to distinguish them from “true” specific heats (Williams 1964; D. M. Anderson 1973). The apparent volumetric heat capacity is defined as ππ = π + πΏπ ππ πππ (2) ππ 152 153 154 155 156 where π is the volume-specific heat capacity (MJ m-3 °C-1), Lf is the latent heat of fusion for water (J kg-1), ο²l is the density of liquid water (kg m-3), ο±l is the volumetric soil liquid water content (m3 m-3), and T is temperature (°C). Thus, ca may be interpreted as the quantity of heat required to raise the temperature of a unit volume of soil by 1 °C while a phase change between liquid water and ice is occurring. 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 In unfrozen soil ca = c. In partially frozen soil, however, ca may vary by several orders of magnitude across a 1 °C temperature range (Fuchs, Campbell, and Papendick 1978; Koopmans and Miller 1966). When the temperature sensitivity of the thermal properties becomes very large, the temperature increase induced by the heat pulse becomes very small. This occurs because an increasing fraction of the total heat input is consumed in melting ice rather than in raising the temperature of the soil. Just below the freezing point, where the temperature sensitivity of ca is greatest, almost all of the heat pulse is consumed in melting ice and the temperature in the measurement volume is nearly constant during the measurement. We exploit the fact HPP measured ca provides a “flag” indicating the occurrence of a phase change, to characterize the HP’s response to F/T transitions. 167 2.2 Laboratory experiments 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 Soil samples were collected in the from the University of Guelph’s Elora Research Station (sandy loam; collected late Fall 2017) as well as private farms in Cambridge (loamy sand; collected late Fall 2017) and Dunnville (clay loam; collected during a mid-winter thaw in 2018), all in Ontario. Ten undisturbed mesocosms were extracted from each site in PVC cylinders measuring 12 cm in height and 10 cm in diameter. The holders were only filled to a depth of 10 cm and the bottom was capped with plastic lid. Prior to collection, each PVC sample holder was chamfered to facilitate sample extraction and machined to accommodate a horizontally placed HP at a depth of 2.5 cm into the soil profile (4.5 cm below the top of the holder). This was complemented by the orthogonal insertion of two heat pulse probes, placed horizontally and diametrically opposed, covering the vertical span of the HP’s sensing volume, see Figure 1. 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 Experiments were undertaken at the School of Environmental Science of the University of Guelph in a NorLake2 mini-room walk-in controlled temperature chamber equipped with a CP7L control panel. The collected samples were placed in insulated cardboard boxes and filled with sand, as shown in Figure 1, an attempt to laterally insulate the mesocosms and mimic a 1-D freezing front. HP output signals were logged with a CR800 datalogger and HPP output signals were logged with a CR1000 datalogger (both from Campbell Scientific, Inc.). The temperature and permittivity of each mesocosm were measured every minute using the HP while two HPP alternately captured the apparent heat capacity at 24-minute intervals. Sensor output from induced F/T events was recorded over different soil texture classes and soil moisture levels. 5 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 188 189 Table 1: Characteristics of Soil Samples Used in this Study Field Location Dry bulk density (g cm-3) Dry soil permittivity Sand (%) Clay Silt (%) (%) Textural class Elora Research Farm 43°39′ N, 80°25′ W, 376 m 1.45 2.5±0.1 54 10 36 Sandy Loam Cambridge (private farm) 46°26′ N, 80°20′ W, 312 m 1.78 2.0±0.1 78.4 2.5 19.1 Loamy sand Dunnville (private farm) 42°52′ N, 79°44′ W, 192 m 1.40 2.4±0.2 33 28 39 Clay loam 190 191 192 193 194 The soil samples were subjected to temperature transitions from +10 °C to -10 °C and vice versa at ~24-hour intervals. Each mesocosm had different soil moisture content levels, either from collection, addition of distilled water, or removal of water by oven drying. One mesocosm of each soil type was oven dried at 105 °C for 48 hours to serve as a control. 195 196 197 198 199 Figure 1: Experimental set up of HydraProbe and Heat Pulse Probes from three different perspectives and mesocosm arrangement in thermally insulated cardboard boxes filled with sand, to scale. 2.3 Kenaston Soil Moisture Network transition data 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 As discussed earlier, a major gap in the understanding of hydrological processes in seasonally frozen northern latitudes is the inability to effectively monitor processes in the field. A number of large-scale soil moisture monitoring networks (e.g.: SCAN, CRN, AgriMET, RISMA, Kentucky Mesonet, New York Mesonet, Snotel, Soil Moisture Analysis Network, and ISMN), have shown the potential for freeze-thaw validation (Williamson, Rowlandson, et al. 2018). These networks are instrumented with probes that measure soil temperature and relative permittivity, to estimate volumetric soil moisture content (Topp, Davis, and Annan 1980), at standard World Meteorological Organization instrument depths (5, 20, and 50 cm below ground; Dorigo et al. 2013) 209 210 211 212 213 The applicability of our methods was evaluated using field data obtained from one such soil moisture monitoring network. Since 2007, soil moisture and precipitation have been monitored in a hydrometeorological network within the Brightwater Creek basin, east of Kenaston, SK, Canada (Tetlock et al. 2019). The network captures precipitation measurement and soil moisture variation at two spatial scales (102 km2 region and 402 km2) with three 6 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 214 215 216 instrument depths for soil moisture and temperature. This agricultural region has been used for remote sensing calibration and validation (e.g. Colliander et al. 2017; Lye et al. 2018) and hydrological model validation (Garnaud et al. 2016). 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 Soil permittivity measurements collected from Environment and Climate Change Canada’s 22 stations of the Kenaston Network starting from winter 2012/2013 were sectioned into freeze-thaw events. An event includes both a freezing and a thawing transition, however in the case that data collection starts/ends mid-event, that event is classified as either a thawing or a freezing transition. These sites cover a textural composition range from 10.5% – 61.7% for sand, 31.2% – 72.4% for silt, and 1.2% – 41.1% for clay. It is noted that standard HPs have an operating temperature range from -10 °C to +60 °C and extended range HPs have an operating range between -30 °C and +60 °C. Over the years, some of the network’s near surface probes have been replaced with extended temperature ones, so that both standard and extended range probes are found in the network. To keep the data consistent, only measurements with temperatures greater than -10 °C were analyzed. 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 Freeze-thaw events were identified based on the sign changes associated with freezing/thawing temperatures in the Celsius scale. The cycles were then split into freezing and thawing transitions based on the minimum/maximum soil permittivity at the minimum/maximum temperature reached during the cycle. Freezing/thawing transitions were considered to start/end when the measured temperature went below/above 0 °C and the preceding/following four measurements (equivalent to 2 hours) were included for context. Transitions identified from the same event were separated with a three measurement overlap between them. This subset of the network’s data and the laboratory data are available at the polar data catalog (PDC; https://dx.doi.org/10.20383/101.0200). 237 2.4 Logistic model of the SFC/STC 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 The relationship between unfrozen water content and soil temperature, known as the soil freezing curve (SFC), is perhaps the most basic property of the physical processes involved in soil freeze-thaw processes (Ireson et al. 2013). The SFC represents the phenomenon of freezing point depression in soils and can be used for understanding the transportation of heat, water, and solute in frozen soils (Koopmans and Miller 1966). The SFC is analogous to the soil moisture characteristic for unfrozen conditions and has been recognized as a fundamental relationship in cold region engineering which controls the hydraulic properties (D. Anderson and Morgenstern 1973; Ren, Vanapalli, and Han 2017). 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 During the thawing process of frozen soil, the relation between the unfrozen water content and the temperature is usually different from the SFC. This relation is defined as the soil thawing characteristic (STC; Zhou et al. 2019), and the difference between the STC and the SFC is well-known as hysteresis. Zhou et al., defined this relation as the soil thawing characteristic (STC). Thus, in general we expect ππΉπΆ = π(π) and πππΆ = π(π), but ππΉπΆ ≠ πππΆ. This hysteretic behavior can be attributed to several possible mechanisms, including supercooling effects, electrolyte concentration changes induced by the freezing/thawing processes, differences in ice–water interface curvatures during crystallization and melting, pore blocking effects, contact angle effects, changes in pore structure, as well as particle displacement from freezing expansion (Ren & Vanpalli, 2019). 7 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 As mentioned earlier, the primary driver for changes in soil permittivity measurements is the moisture content. Thus, the HP’s measurements can be used to link the degree of phase transition to the sub-freezing temperature yielding a permittivity SFC or STC. However, there are some fundamental difference between these “permittivity SFC or STC” from undisturbed samples or in situ stations and their well-studied SFC or STC counterparts. These measurements are, generally, not from saturated samples and the higher temporal resolution comes at the expense of accuracy, when compared to more complicated laboratory methods. Moreover, these experiments are performed at or near thermal equilibrium, by quasi-static or rapid cooling processes. The deviation between the results expected from dielectric models is attributed to the HP’s measurement support, or measurement region (Western and Blöschl 1999), which influences the shape of the permittivity SFC/STC. 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 In the remote sensing community, the widely accepted models of soil dielectric permittivity are described by Zhang, Zhao, Jiang, & Zhao (2010) and Mironov & Savin (2016). These models are both based on the Debye relaxation model, with temperature-dependency considerations and different characterizations of the constituents of the model. Neither of these models directly addresses the phenomena of freezing point depression. The Mironov & Savin (2016) model conditionally assumes that the soil samples are in a frozen state in the temperature range of -30 °C < T <-1 °C and the dielectric permittivity decreases exponentially with temperature. Zhang et al., (2010) , on the other use a dielectric mixing model with fixed permittivity values, in which the unfrozen water content decreases with temperature using a power law relationship. Both of these yield a similar (exponential and power law respectively) relationship between permittivity and temperature increase, which are truncated at a defined temperature. However, these models are not congruent with the sigmoidal relationship seen in Figures 2 and 3. 280 281 282 283 288 289 290 Land surface models commonly use a thermodynamical approach, with minor variations, to describe the relationship between liquid water content and temperature (Koren et al., 1999; Cox et al., 1999; Smirnova et al., 2000; Cherkauer and Lettenmeier, 2003). These models adopt a power law description and include HydroGeosphere, ORCHIDEE, and, the Common Land Model (CLM5; Brunner & Simmons, 2012; Ducharne, 2017; Lawrence et al., 2018). Again, this does not yield a curve congruent with our sigmoidal results. Alternatively, the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), Soil Heat and Water (SHAW), Hydrus-1D, and the Noah-MP models employ numerical solution schemes on discretized soil layers which solve for coupled water flow and heat transport. Lastly, several empirical formulae have been presented, through the analysis of experimental data. These formulae are summarized in Liu & Yu, (2013) and are, again, based on power or exponential relationships. 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 For theoretical analysis of unfrozen water, there are three types of theories reported in literature. Liquid film theory (Gilpin 1980), does not present any formulas for the unfrozen water content. Similarity theories based on the similitude between saturated frozen soil and unsaturated soil have been developed using the Young-Laplace equation and the Clapeyron equation (Koopmans and Miller 1966; Black and Tice 1989; Liu and Yu 2013). However, there are questions regarding the use of the Clapeyron equation in frozen soil and assumptions of the porewater and pore-ice pressures. Lastly, similarity theories using the Gibbs-Thomson equation have also been proposed (Bai et al. 2018; Zhao et al. 2017; Zhou et al. 2019). Using these theories, models of the Soil Moisture Curve (SMC) in unsaturated soil can be used to fit the SFC/STC in the same form. This reformulation assumes the linear transformation of variables from water 284 285 286 287 8 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 301 302 303 304 305 content and head pressure to unfrozen water content and subfreezing temperature does not change the form of the equation. Moreover, the effect of air is excluded, therefore strict application of similarity theory requires the condition of saturated frozen soil. Recently, however, Ren and Vanapalli (2019) raised several concerns regarding the (lack of) similarity between the SFC and SMC. 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 Although, widely used SMC models are able to accommodate the sigmoidal relationship seen in our data, they are dependent on at least three curve fitting parameters, some of which are not interpretable (Hogarth et al. 1988; van Genuchten 1980; Fredlund and Xing 1994). It is noted that these models are based on soil moisture content, but the raw data from our experiment is the dielectric permittivity of the HydraProbe’s sensing volume. Moreover, the applicability of these models to our data is debatable, since models accounting for the measurement support of the HydraProbe suggest the sigmoidal shape seen between permittivity and temperature, is at least partially caused by the separation of the probe’s temperature and permittivity measurement regions. 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 For simplicity and to hone in on the freezing point depression and its variance as measured by the HydraProbe, we employ a two parameter logistic model, which is fitted for location and scale parameters. We fit the empirical relationship between the soil permittivity and temperature using a logistic function, seen in equation (5), as it is a common model of restricted population growth and it offers interpretable parameters. In the case of soil freezing/thawing, the growing population is the ice/liquid water, which is limited by the total amount of H2O in the soil volume and the minimum temperature, such that for freezing or thawing transitions, 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 ππΉπΆ or πππΆ = π(π) = ππππ + ππππ₯ −ππππ 1+π −(π−ππ⁄π)⁄π (3) Subbing in equation (1) yields π΄√π(π) + π΅ = (π΄√ππππ + π΅) + (π΄√ππππ₯ +π΅)−(π΄√ππππ +π΅) 1+π −(π−ππ⁄π)⁄π (4) which simplifies to √π(π) = √ππππ + √ππππ₯ −√ππππ 1+π (5) −(π−ππ⁄π)⁄π where the minimum and maximum soil permittivities at the minimum and maximum measured temperatures are ππππ and ππππ₯ respectively. ππ/π is the temperature at the halfway point of the transition, at which the change in permittivity reaches its maximum rate of change, and π is a scale factor inversely proportional to the growth rate. ππ⁄π and s can thus be interpreted as the freezing/melting point depression and its spread in temperature space. The model parameters are fitted using Levenberg-Marquardt non-linear least squares with starting values of ππ/π = 0 °C and π = 0.4 °C. The latter amount corresponds to the HP instrumental accuracy uncertainty (Stevens Water Monitoring Systems 2015). The parameters were further constrained. ππ/π was bounded between the transition’s maximum and minimum temperature ( ππππ ≤ ππ/π ≤ ππππ₯ ) and s was bounded between 0 and the temperature range (0 ≤ π ≤ ππππ₯ − ππππ ). We note that π is roughly half the standard deviation of the logistic 9 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 distribution associated with the fit (π = √3 π ≈ 0.55 π). For the logistic distribution, the π cumulative probability at values ππ/π ± π is 0.269 and 0.731 respectively. To summarize, the method described can provide estimates of the freezing/melting point depression (ππ/π ) and its temperature dispersion (π ) for the associated transition using a logistic fit of empirical permittivity SFC/STC. The applicability of this model was tested using the laboratory data and in situ data from the Kenaston Soil Moisture Network. 2.4.1 Logistic model adjustments for in situ data One of the first challenges encountered in adapting the lab methods to field data lay in the relative paucity of data. In the laboratory, measurements were recorded every minute; in the soil moisture network, measurements are available every 30 minutes. To evaluate the effects of this difference in temporal resolution, the laboratory data were down-sampled to 30-minute intervals. The resulting fit parameters ππ/π and π were compared yielding a cosine similarity score of 1.00 and 0.999 respectively on 154 observations (sand controls were excluded). The correlation coefficients were 1.00 and 0.987 respectively. However, in the field data during the vernal thaw, rapid soil temperature fluctuations and the melting snowpack can further reduce the number of measurements collected for a transition. In effect this paucity leads to underfitting the data from the most dynamic section of the transition (see section 3.2). To ameliorate this underfitting, a weighting scheme was implemented based on the total number of measurements (n) such that the data inside (m) and outside (n-m) a region of interest have equal importance if m < n-m. The region was set between -1 °C and 1 °C, the most dynamic section of the transition. Such that: π − π −1 ) if π < π − π and − 1 β ≤ π ≤ 1 β π π€= π −1 (1 + ) if π < π − π and − 1 β > π > 1 β π−π { 1 else (1 + 360 361 362 363 This weighting scheme has the added benefit of making the fit statistics more representative of the fit quality over the region of interest. 364 3 Results 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 3.1 Laboratory freeze/thaw transitions A total of eleven freeze-thaw events were induced on six samples plus two controls at a time, yielding a total of 176 transitions across three different soil types at various soil moisture content levels. The two controls, comprised of a field sample oven-dried at 105 °C for 48 hours and the dry sand used to insulate the soil samples, are suggestive of an instrumental minimum soil permittivity of 2.3±0.2. Figure 2 shows the F/T cycle data collected from the Cambridge loamy sand mesocosms, excluding the controls, as a function of soil temperature. Most notably, the sigmoidal relationship between permittivity and temperature was seen in every sample for both the freezing and thawing transitions. 10 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 374 a b 375 376 377 378 379 Figure 2: Soil permittivity for freezing (blue) and thawing (red) transitions as well as apparent heat capacity (black with star) measurements as a function of time (a) and soil temperature (b) from a the Cambridge sandy loam samples, excluding the controls. The apparent heat capacity greatly increases during phase transitions of the soil moisture. 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 The permittivity SFC/STC curves can be divided into three zones, i.e., boundary effect zone (where no pore ice forms), transition zone (where sharp drop in the unfrozen water content is experienced), and residual zone of unfrozen state (where variation in the unfrozen water content is insignificant despite significant changes in temperature). The unfrozen water content in the soil gradually decreases along the freezing curve. At a certain sub-freezing temperature, most of the pore water turns into ice and beyond this temperature extremely low temperature would be required to further reduce the unfrozen water. This specific unfrozen water content is referred to as residual unfrozen water content. In addition, the permittivity SFC/STC curves display the expected hysteretic behavior (Tian et al. 2014; Ren, Vanapalli, and Han 2017; Zhou et al. 2019). 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 It is of interest that although large changes in soil permittivity are temporally correlated with spikes in the apparent heat capacity, the measurements do not correlate in temperature space. The soil permittivity continues increasing/decreasing at temperatures higher/lower than those at which the apparent heat capacity measurements return to their constant values. These results speak to the limitations imposed by the laboratory set-up. Fundamentally, the HP offers different support (Bloschl and Sivapalan, 1995) between the volume measurement of the permittivity and the average surface area measurement of the temperature from the thermistor attached to the metal plate. Even though the samples were placed in insulated boxes filled with dry sand in an attempt to simulate a 1-D freezing front in the soil, the sand’s thermal inertia was lower than that of the samples. Consequently, the temperature of the sand surrounding the HydraProbe responded more quickly to the air temperature changes driven by the environmental chamber. Although the base plate was in contact with the soil sample, the cylindrical head and 11 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 402 403 the outermost part of the samples were surrounded by a medium with temperature biased towards that imposed by the environmental chamber. 3.2 Kenaston Soil Moisture Network transition data 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 Soil moisture and precipitation have been monitored since 2007 in a hydrometeorological network within the Brightwater Creek basin, East of Kenaston, SK, Canada (Tetlock et al. 2019). Soil permittivity measurements collected from the topmost horizontal HP (5 cm depth) probes for ECCC’s 22 stations for the Kenaston Soil Moisture Network were analyzed. In total, 3842 possible freeze or thaw transitions were identified using the criteria laid out in Sec. 2.4. As an example, the freeze-thaw events isolated from Station 19 between October, 2013 and May 2014 can be seen on Figure 3. a b 413 414 415 416 417 Figure 3: Freeze-thaw event data isolated from the Kenaston Network station 19 between October 1, 2013 and May 1, 2014. Soil permittivity for freezing (blue) and thawing (red) transition measurements as a function of time (a) and soil temperature (b) from a sandy loam sample. Various transient events are seen along with the main seasonal event. 418 419 420 Unlike our laboratory results, there is no visually discernible difference between the freezing and thawing data acquired in-situ. However, the relationship between permittivity and soil temperature continues to exhibit the sigmoidal form seen in our laboratory results. 12 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 4 Discussion 4.1 Model application to laboratory data Ireson et al. (2013) questioned whether permittivity-based methods would be sufficiently accurate to partition the total water content into frozen and unfrozen components. These concerns were based on the expectation that the unfrozen water content should drop to close to zero at temperatures of −4 °C. However, these anomalously high unfrozen water contents were acquired using an “unrefined” TDR calibration. The authors also refer to work by Roth and Boike (2001) which indicates a volume fraction of 0.05 for liquid water at -15 °C. Roth and Boike justify these values as comparable to the accuracy of the TDR data and note the high clay content of the soil used. We sidestep the soil moisture content accuracy issues by dealing directly with the permittivity measurements. It is worthwhile to note that Ireson based his discussion on daily TDR measurements; Roth and Baike based them on half-daily liquid water content measurements. The data set used here provides much higher temporal resolution allowing for the identification of more transient freeze-thaw events. 435 436 437 438 439 440 Figure 4: Soil permittivity for a freezing (blue) and thawing (red) transition as well as apparent heat capacity (black with star) measurements as a function of soil temperature (a) and time (b) from a Cambridge sandy loam sample. The apparent heat capacity greatly increases during phase transitions of the soil moisture. The logistic models (black) were used to estimate the freezing/melting point depression (ππ/π ) and its temperature dispersion (π ≈ 0.5 π). 441 442 443 Since a non-linear least squares method was employed, high R2 values are expected. The low R2 seen on Figure 5 indicate that the model is not reliable when the permittivity range (ππππππ = ππππ₯ − ππππ ) associated with the phase change is small. Fitting an exponential model, we estimate that the model will provide a suitable fit (high R2 values) for transitions with a permittivity range greater than 3.8, with 95% probability. When this condition is met, the 444 445 13 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 446 447 freezing point depression appears to be robust with regard to soil texture and moisture content, as seen on Figure 5. 448 449 450 451 Figure 5: Model R2, from the logistic fit as a function of the permittivity range. The thaw transitions are shown in red, freeze transitions in blue, and controls (oven dried for 48 hours) in black. 452 The freezing/melting point depression estimated from the model, ππ/π , as a function of maximum permittivity (which is a proxy for soil moisture content) can be seen in Figure 6. ππ/π , interpreted as the freezing point depression, also appears to be robust with regard to soil texture and soil moisture content. The model was used to estimate the temperature range of the freezing point depression (π = ππ/π ± π ). These temperatures are illustrated by the dashed lines on Figure 4 and can be seen as the bars on Figure 6. By constraining the analysis to transitions with a permittivity range greater than 3.8, the following averages, with standard deviation, were found for freezing transitions: -2.0± 0.3 °C for all samples, -1.86 ± 0.05 °C for the Elora sandy loam, 1.86 ± 0.27 °C for the Cambridge loamy sand, and -2.1 ± 0.4 °C for the Dunnville clay loam; all of which are within one standard deviation of each other. For thawing transitions, the averages were: 2.05 ± 0.24 °C for all samples, 2.01 ± 0.04 °C for the Elora sandy loam, 2.2 ± 0.19 °C for the Cambridge loamy sand, and 1.95 ± 0.24 °C for the Dunnville clay loam; again, all of which are within one standard deviation of each other. 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 14 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 466 468 469 470 471 Figure 6: Estimated freezing/melting point depression, ππ/π , as a function of maximum soil permittivity (a proxy for soil moisture content). The thawing transitions are shown in red, freezing transitions in blue, and controls (oven dried for 48 hours) in black. The bars display the temperature dispersion of the freezing point depression, as estimated by the scale parameter, s. Bars not shown for transition with a permittivity range (ππππ₯ − ππππ ), lower than 3.8. 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 As mentioned earlier, these freezing/melting point depression estimates speak to the limitations imposed by the laboratory set-up. The dry sand used to insulate the samples had lower thermal inertia than the samples, responding more quickly to the temperature changes driven by the environmental chamber. In effect, the thermistor and outermost part of the samples were surrounded in a medium with temperature biased towards that being imposed by the environmental chamber. This decoupling between the soil permittivity and biased temperature measurements, shifted ππ to temperatures greater than 0 °C during thawing transitions (an unphysical range for terrestrial environments) and forced the freezing point depression measurements, ππ , during freezing transitions. 467 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 4.2 Model application to field data The model, equation (5), and fitting techniques were applied along with the weighting scheme to determine the freezing/melting point depression (ππ/π ) and temperature dispersion (π ) of the 3842 freeze or thaw transitions identified in the Kenaston Soil Moisture Network Data. In terms of quality control, as concluded from the laboratory experiments, transitions with a permittivity range of less than 3.8 units (ππππ₯ − ππππ < 3.8) were removed from further analysis, leaving a total of 780 transitions suitable for analysis with our model. Of these, 29 transitions had R2 values of less than 0, indicating that a straight line through the average would provide a better fit than that of the model, leaving 751 transitions for analysis. As an example, 15 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 490 491 the first freeze-thaw event from Station 19 for the fall of 2013 (starting October 28th and ending October 31st, 2013) can be seen on Figure 7. 492 a b 493 499 500 Figure 7: Sample data from Kenaston Network station 19 during the first freeze-thaw event of 2013. Soil permittivity for freezing (blue) and thawing (red) transition measurements as a function of time (a) and soil temperature (b) from a Cambridge sandy loam sample. The logistic models fitted on the data were used to estimate the freezing/melting point depression, ππ/π , and associated temperature dispersion, π π/π . These values correspond to cumulative probabilities of 0.27, 0.50, and 0.73 from the associated logistic distribution. We interpret these values as an estimate of the relative frozen soil moisture fraction at a given minimal temperature. 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 However, upon visual inspection a number of these were found to be misfits. The most common cause for these misfits was unexpected behavior in the permittivity measurements associated with the residual zone of unfrozen state. In particular, rainfall/snow melt events which did not bring the temperature measurements above 0 °C bifurcated the residual zone of unfrozen state measurements. In some transitions this zone showed a sloping linear trend. The next most common cause for misfits was the occurrence of very transient transitions which confounded the model due to the paucity of measurements and effects of thermal inertia, sometime leading to event conflation. 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 Conflation of events is also possible due to our need for measurements before and after the soil temperature crosses 0°C. Measurements have to be added to each freeze-thaw event to “anchor” the thawed permittivity measurements before the start of the freezing transition and after the end of the thawing transition. This, however, has proven to be a tricky compromise between ensuring the permittivity measurement are representative of the thawed water content and avoiding the conflation of multiple events, particularly for transient transitions. To minimize the conflation of multiple events only the four preceding and succeeding measurements around 494 495 496 497 498 16 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 each cycle were added, equivalent to two hours. Although including more peripheral measurements to each transition leads to the more conflation of events, this type of analysis can be useful for assessing the infiltration of the melting snowpack. Less prevalent causes for misfits involved transitions with missing data and probe failures. The misfits provided erroneous estimates of ππ/π and/or π , which made them easy to identify as outliers using the standard interquartile range criterion (IQR), as seen in Figure 8. We employed the IQR, defined as the difference between the third and first quartiles (πΌππ = π3 −π1 ), to identify outliers in the data. For freezing transitions, π1 − 1.5 ⋅ πΌππ = −1.09 °C for ππ and π3 + 1.5 ⋅ πΌππ = 0.63 °C for π . On the other hand, for thawing transitions, π1 − 1.5 ⋅ πΌππ = −0.89 °C for ππ and π3 + 1.5 ⋅ πΌππ = 0.71 °C for π . We chose the largest absolute values (1.09 °C for ππ/π and 0.71 °C for π ) to define outliers. Of the 751 transitions, 4 (0 Freezing transitions, 4 Thawing transitions) were outside the IQR for ππ/π , 58 (26 F, 32 T) transitions were outside the IQR for π , and 18 (15 F, 3 T) were outside both the ππ/π and π IQR, for a total of 80 (41 F, 39 T) transitions eliminated from further analysis, leaving 671 transitions. 530 533 Figure 8: Boxplot showing all outliers for the freezing/melting point depression (ππ , ππ ) and their spread (π π , π π ) for transitions between 2012 and 2019 with a permittivity range greater than 3.8. 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 Interestingly, the positive outliers for the freezing/melting point depression temperatures were not misfits. Rather, these are biased measurements similar to those seen in the lab. This bias is most visible in the thawing transitions, but some freezing transitions exhibit it as well. These transitions have a short duration and a quick change in temperature in common. In the case of thawing transitions, we hypothesize the plate attached to the thermistor reaches a temperature above 0 °C before the front has penetrated the entire sensing volume. On the other hand, for freezing, we hypothesize that as the front penetrates the soil profile the situation arises in which the HydraProbe senses a change in the permittivity while the surface area of the plate attached to the thermistor has not reached a temperature below 0 °C. Compared to the bias seen in the lab (which underestimated freezing point depression and overestimate melting point depression due 531 532 17 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 544 545 546 547 to lack of thermal insulation) the bias seen in the field data appears to have an overestimation effect for both the freezing and melting point depression temperatures. The bias in the field seems subdued for events of longer duration, however we suspect the bias can only be addressed by accounting for the measurement support of the instrumentation. 548 549 550 From the field data suitable for analysis, we calculated the freezing/melting point depression for the Kenaston Soil Moisture Network. To exclude obviously biased temperature measurements, as discussed above, only transitions with ππ/π values less than or equal to 0°C were analyzed for a total 526 (268 F, 261 T) transitions. The mean freezing/melting point depression, ππ/π , for the 526 transitions was -0.35 ± 0.20 °C, the freezing transition mean was ππ = 0.41 ± 0.22 °C, and the thawing transitions mean was ππ = −0.29 ± 0.16 °C. Based on the instrumental uncertainty and ππ/π variance with these in situ measurements, we cannot confirm the SFC/STC hysteresis or associate it with textural composition. The mean and standard deviation for the freezing and melting point depression estimated for each station can be seen in Figure 9, along with the network mean and standard deviation. 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 Figure 9: Mean freezing (blue) and melting (red) point depression estimates with standard deviation error bars for the Kenaston Network stations analyzed. The mean for all transitions with a permittivity range greater than 3.8 is shown by the black line (-0.35 °C) with the dashed line showing the standard deviation (±0.20 °C). 563 5 Conclusions 564 565 566 567 568 In situ monitoring of the soil moisture phase state is of critical importance, however, there is an inability to interpret soil moisture instrumentation in frozen conditions (Ireson et al. 2013). To address this gap, the instrumental response to freezing/thawing from a widely used soil moisture probe, the HydraProbe (HP) was characterized using Heat Pulse Probes (HPP). Freezethaw cycles were induced on soil cores from three different agricultural sites (described in Table 18 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 577 1) in a laboratory setting (seen in Figure 1) over a range of soil moisture content levels. All samples showed a sigmoidal relationship between the soil permittivity with respect to the soil temperature measurements: examples can be seen in Figures 2 and 4. A temporal correlation was evident between the order of magnitude increase in heat capacity, decrease in soil relative permittivity, and the rate of change of the soil temperature. The relationship for freeze-thaw events in permittivity-temperature space was identified as the SFC/STC and fit using a logistic growth model (Equation 5). This allowed us to estimate the soil moisture freezing/melting point depression (ππ/π ), its temperature spread (π ), and assess the degree to which the soil is frozen for a particular sample/location. 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 Laboratory results showed the model requires a change in permittivity greater than 3.8 to provide robust estimates, as seen in Figure 5, and suggested a temperature bias can be induced in the HydraProbe, as seen in Figure 6. This bias is believed to stem the low thermal inertia of the insulating sand in combination with the HP’s measurement support. The HP provides a bulk soil permittivity for a cylindrical soil volume and an average surface temperature of the soil in contact with the probe’s metal plate. Thus, the difficulties in accurately measuring temperature are associated with the time required to achieve uniform temperature within the bulk soil specimen as well as the resolution and precision of the temperature sensor. Since this was not achieved, the measured temperature was influenced by the temperature of the insulating sand surrounding the sensor. Therefore, during this period, the reliable measurement of unfrozen water content is difficult, since an equilibrium condition is not fully established. We suspect the bias can be partially addressed by accounting for HP’s measurement region. 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 600 601 The method was adapted and applied to field measurements collected over the last seven years from ECCC’s Kenaston soil moisture network in Saskatchewan, Canada (Tetlock et al. 2019). By thoughtfully dividing the permittivity-temperature time series into possible freezethaw cycles and then into individual transitions, see Figure 3, the permittivity SFC/STC were identified in a majority of events meeting the required change in permittivity, see Figures 7 and 8. Again, the reliable measurement of unfrozen water content was difficult for events in which an equilibrium condition was not fully established. Lastly, after culling these unreliable events, the mean freezing/melting point depression for the network was estimated as ππ/π = −0.35 ± 0.20. Individually ππ = −0.41 ± 0.22 °C and ππ = −0.29 ± 0.16 °C respectively; station means can be seen in Figure 9. Based on the instrumental uncertainty and ππ/π variance with these in situ measurements, we cannot confirm the SFC/STC hysteresis or associate it with textural composition. 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 Although soil permittivity probes are sensitive to soil moisture phase changes, temperature or permittivity measurements alone do not provide enough information to characterize soil moisture freeze-thaw events. Even though temperature is the primary factor driving soil moisture phase changes, it is a proxy measurement that alone cannot provide a precise description of the soil F/T state. On the other hand, while permittivity is a more direct measurement of the soil F/T state, it is not uniquely dependent on the phase state of the soil. It is imperative to consider the temperature dependence of changes in permittivity to begin to disentangle the cause of these changes. The methodology developed does just that, opening up the possibility of assessing how frozen the ground is using only in-situ measurements, allowing us to cast aside the limitations associated with binary classification, while also providing estimates of the freezing/melting point depression and its temperature dispersion. The model was 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 598 599 19 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 613 614 applicable to lab-based soil core measurements as well as field data, showing promise in different spatio-temporal scales and soil types. 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 As noted by Painter et al. (2016), “while reduced dimensionality and simplified representations of freeze/thaw dynamics in soils are appropriate for studies focusing on larger scales, more detailed models have an important role to play in building confidence in the approximations required for coarser scale models, as well as in exploring basic science questions about permafrost dynamics in a changing climate.” Soil freeze-thaw experiments, such as this one, can establish the link to physically based representations of the partitioning among liquid, ice, and gas in freezing unsaturated soils. The method developed here can yield event- and sitespecific permittivity SFC or STC. For instance, this granularity opens up the possibility of assessing the temporal transferability of SFC/STCs, which to our knowledge has not been addressed. 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 It is anticipated that the method described will allow for the characterization of in situ soil moisture freeze-thaw events for detection at various scales for remote sensing, land surface analysis, and climate model validation. This unique relationship between the soil permittivity, temperature, and moisture states possibly offers a pathway for improved near-surface freeze/thaw detection in the near future as well as a tool to help predict the risk and severity of potentially catastrophic events. Future work on the method includes refining the possible F/T event identification and fitting algorithms to more cleanly isolate each transition and more precisely identify the “final” post-thaw permittivity. The scalability of the model parameters (ππ/π , π ) is under investigation in the spatial, temporal, and frequency dimensions as well. 634 Acknowledgments, Samples, and Data 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 This work was supported by the Global Water Futures Program funded by Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Canadian Space Agency, and the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada’s FloodNET and Post-Graduate Scholarship programs. Laboratory and field data supporting the conclusions will be found in the Polar Data Catalogue (PDC) metadata and data repository upon publication. Special thanks to Jaison Ambadan, Alex Mavrovic, Sandy McLaren, Sean Jordan, Daniel Newman, Natalie Dale, Olivia Kaminski, Megan Cowan, and Beth Van Rys. 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 20 Confidential manuscript submitted to Water Resource Research 651 References 652 653 654 655 Anderson, D., and N. 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