Pakistan’s Afghanistan challenge
With the issue of managing the security of Kabul Intl Airport taking centre-stage
The Afghan discussion has come down to this: who will manage the
security of Kabul International Airport once the US and Nato forces
complete their withdrawal? This shows how precarious the security
situation is in Afghanistan that the US is now more worried about
airport security over bringing overall peace to the war-torn country.
Why Kabul airport’s security matters is because otherwise the US
cannot maintain diplomatic presence in Afghanistan. The US and
other western diplomatic missions need a secure airport to exit in
case of emergency. The US has the option to take charge of airport
security itself but since President Joe Biden has already stated that
he doesn’t want any troops left behind, Washington is looking for
other options. For this purpose, the US is talking to Turkey. The
issue came up when Biden met Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO summit last week.
This one aspect alone highlights the impending challenge Afghanistan poses for
the US and Pakistan. There are two scenarios.
First and the ideal one is that there is a peace deal. There is a power-sharing
agreement allowing the formation of an inclusive interim government. There is
a comprehensive ceasefire and all sides agree to halt violence. There is a broader
consensus among Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours and other regional and
international players. The international community agrees to pump in dollars
for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the war-ravaged country. The return
of peace allows what Pakistan often calls a “dignified” return of Afghan refugees
to their homeland and unlocks the economic, trade and energy potential not
just between Pakistan and Afghanistan but for the wider region. The peace also
means terrorist groups find little space to operate out of Afghanistan and hence
dividends of peace are there for everyone to take.
But unfortunately, the situation on ground appears to the contrary.
The second and most probable scenario is that Afghanistan is heading towards
another phase of civil war and unrest. Despite efforts there is no or little chance
of any peace deal in the near future. The Afghan Taliban already control 45% of
the territory and their field commanders are publicly stating that once US forces
leave, the current dispensation in Kabul will not survive a week. But that may
not be as simple a proposition. If the Afghan Taliban have over 100,000 wellarmed and well-trained foot soldiers, the Afghan National Army is 300,000strong having the latest military equipment supplied by the US and other
countries.
Even if the Taliban try to take over Kabul, it will not be a cakewalk. In the
process, there will be mayhem on the streets of Afghanistan. The warring
factions will try to assert control as it happened after the Soviet withdrawal in
1989. As a result of this chaos, terrorist groups will have freedom to operate.
Groups such as TTP will find space to regroup. The unrest will trigger a fresh
wave of refugees from Afghanistan. Although we have fenced the border and
introduced other border mechanisms, those measures may not be enough.
On the diplomatic front this scenario means Pakistan will be blamed for the
mess. The cost of Afghan unrest will be huge. The economic recovery the
government is hoping for in the next two years may be undermined. There are
other unforeseeable challenges that may come Pakistan’s way. But despite this
imminent threat, Pakistan’s elected members are busy hurling abuses against
each other. No one is talking about the threat being posed by the Afghanistan
situation seriously. It will not be an overstatement that unrest in Afghanistan
will have far-reaching implications for Pakistan and perhaps we are not yet
ready to face the challenge!
SOURCE: Express Tribune
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