ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE OF DISTRICT MUZAFFARABAD
(AZAD JAMMU & KASHMIR)
Dr. Mirza Arshad Ali Beg
arshadalibeg@gmail.com
Kashmir forms the eastern strategic boundary of the Synclinorium of Greater Pakistan Subcontinent. This eastern boundary of the Subcontinent has not changed ever after the tectonic
movement, which attached the Indian Plate at the east of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. It is
important to recognize the buffer capacity of the Greater Pakistan Subcontinent that holds Iran
on the west, India on the east, China on the northeast, and Russia on the north. All Great Games
of the past have been a failure; the present crises will meet the same fate.
Tectonically speaking, Kashmir has never been part of the Gondwanaland plate to which the rest
of India belongs. The geological activity resulting from the collision of the India portion of
Gondwanaland plate is responsible for the Himalayan mountain range, and in like manner it is
cause of unstable seismicity in the region.
An early Eocene soft contact between leading edges of Gondwanaland and Eurasia at about 53
Ma is suggested on the basis of sudden decrease in spreading rates in central Indian Ocean(Sclater,
J. G. and Fisher, R. L. (1974). The evolution of the east central Indian ocean, with emphasis on the tectonic setting of the Ninety east ridge. Geol.
Soc. Amer. Bull., 85, 683-702)
. It is generally believed that collision between Gondwanaland and Eurasian
plates did not occur at the same time along the entire Himalayan belt. Based on dating the marine
to continental facies transition in the Balakot Formation, Rowley(Rowley, D. B. (1996). Age of initiation of
collision between India and Asia: a review of stratigraphic data. Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 145, 1-13)
concluded that the collision
occurred at 51 Ma in Hazara-Zanskar area at the Kashmir-Hazara syntaxis and was followed
subsequently over the farther east.
The western boundary proceeds from the eastern edge of the Iranian plateau at Hormuz Bay and
past the deserts Dashte Lut and Khavir along the Herat Faultline and Hindukush ranges to the
Pamir Plateau in the north. Chaman fault separates the land mass that includes Sistan-woBalochistan, Balochistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan from the Eurasian plate, while GilgitBaltistan and Azad Kashmir lie mainly in the south of Central Asia on the western edge of the
Indian plate. The western border in particular the Sistan-wo-Balochistan – Afghanistan region
has been greatly modified by invaders, conquerors and empire builders and that is perhaps the
main reason for not identifying the Greater Pakistan Territory as a sub-continent that is
geographically, geologically and historically different from what is known as the Indo-Pakistan
sub-continent in South Asia.
The primordial Tethyan Ocean separated Gondwanaland from the Eurasian continent. One
billion years ago, the Aravallis, whose eroded remnants are visible around Delhi, formed a chain
higher than the Himalayas today. Over millions of years these mountains suffered the forces of
erosion and their sediments were deposited in the Tethyan ocean where the present day Kashmir
is located. Tectonically speaking therefore, Kashmir has never been part of the Gondwanaland
plate to which the rest of India belongs. The geological activity resulting from the collision of the
India portion of Gondwanaland plate is responsible for the Himalayan mountain range, and in
like manner it is cause of unstable seismicity in the region.
DESCRIPTION OF ENVIRONMENT
The Line of Control (LoC) separates Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) from the Indian held Occupied
Kashmir. The macroenvironment of Muzaffarabad District is described here in detail
Geography of Macroenvironment: District Muzaffarabad
Muzaffarabad District, located on the banks of the Jhelum and the Neelum rivers, is hilly all over. The
district has its boundaries with Abbottabad and Mansehra districts of NWFP in the west; Kupwara and
Baramulla districts of occupied Kashmir in the east, it has Diamir district of Northern Areas on the
northeast, and has Poonch district of AJK on the south. Total area of the district is 2496 square
kilometers, while the total population of the district according to 2008 estimates is 0.817 million.
Muzaffarabd district comprises four administrative sub-divisions (tehsil) viz. Muzaffarabad, Hattian,
Patika and Leepa.
DISTRICT-WISE AREA, POPULATION, DENSITY, GROWTH RATE & HOUSEHOLD-SIZE IN AZAD KASHMIR
Districts
Area
(Sq.Kms)
MUZAFFARABAD
NEELUM
MIRPUR
BHIMBER
KOTLI
POONCH
BAGH
SUDHNUTI
TOTAL
Population Census 1998 (Millions)
Population
Growth Rate
Household size
2496
3621
1010
1516
1862
855
1368
569
0.62
0.126
0.334
0.302
0.563
0.411
0.393
0.224
2.80%
2.80%
2.09%
2.60%
2.59%
2.24%
2.00%
1.99%
7.1
7.1
6.8
6.7
7.3
7.6
7.4
7.3
13297
2.973
2.41%
7.2
Projected
Population
2008
0.817
0.166
0.411
0.390
0.727
0.512
0.479
0.272
3.772
Density in2008
(Persons/Sq.Km)
327
46
406
257
390
599
350
478
284
History
Azad Jammu and Kashmir is part of the territories of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Gilgit that formed the
State of Jammu and Kashmir. The state of Jammu and Kashmir was earlier on under Hindu rulers and
Muslim Sultans. It became part of the Mughal Empire under Akbar from 1586.
The last century of the pre-Islamic period are replete not only with assassinations and internecine warfare,
probably stemming from the ethnic heterogeneity of Kashmir’s dominions, but also with the conflict
between Buddhism and Hinduism and an intense, inner turmoil in Hinduism itself. The burning down of
Buddhist monasteries was not as significant as the destruction of Hindu temples under King Harsha
(1089-1101), himself a Hindu.
This impasse and exhaustion of Hinduism in its intellectual stronghold set the stage for the entry of Islam.
For centuries since Arab armies had marched into Gilgit in 751 AD, originally led by Muhammad Bin
Qasim present day Province of Gilgit - Baltistan had enclosed itself in its spiritual and political shell. It
had remained sequestrated despite the expedition of Mahmud Ghaznavi in 1051 and the Dardic
conversion to Islam in the 12th century. Marco Polo had noted a meagre vast presence of significant
Muslims in Kashmir around 1277.
Islam deeply penetrated peacefully into the rest of Kashmir when Rinchan (d.1323), a commander from
Ladakh who had conquered Kashmir, started his personal quest for religion and a complete way of life,
was baffled by the mutually contradictory answers he received from Brahmins, happened to watch Sayyid
Bilal (d. 1327) at prayer, was enchanted by the simplicity of the Sayyid’s faith and embraced it with
fervour. This inaugurated a renaissance in Kashmir which had its political, spiritual and cultural
expressions. Politically, it begot the reign of the Shamiri dynasty comparable in equality if not in scale
with the Seljuks and the Mughals in their patronage of culture and a succession of illustrious monarchs.
The representative figures are Sultan Shahabuddin (1354-1373), conqueror and builder, whose rule
extended to Kabul, Kashgar and Kangra on three sides, and Sultan Zainul Abedin (1420-1470) who was a
forerunner of Akbar in his tolerance and eclecticism, but unlike Akbar, he was an accomplished scholar.
Akbar had called Kashmir Baghe Khas (the Chosen Garden). Two centuries earlier, the great travelling
saint, Syed Ali Hamdani (1314-1384) had termed it Baghe Suleiman (the Garden of Solomon). Later
writers like G.T. Vigne, Francis Younghusband and Walter Lawrence in the 19th century were so struck
by the individuality of the place that they focused on the special ethnic characteristics of its people; Vigne
called them the Neapolitans of the East, Lawrence likened them to the Irish, and both Younghusband and
Lawrence found pronounced Hebraic features in them. Even al-Biruni (973-1048) who accompanied the
unsuccessful expedition of Mahmud Ghaznavi to Kashmir in 1021 noted that the Kashmiris did “Not
allow any Hindu to enter” their land. A small group, with some pretensions to being historians, still
existing in both Kashmir and Pakistan, uses meagre evidence and much fanciful imagination in tracing the
ancestry of Kashmiris to one of the lost tribes of Israel.
Kashmir flourished under the sultanate and the Mughals. The Mughals loved Kashmir. Statesmen Khwaja
Inayatullah of 18th century and calligraphist Muhammad Hussain Zareen Qalam (d. 1611) rose to
eminence in the Mughal court. History records a steep decline after the Mughals. The famous institutions
caved in to misgovernance, and famine and epidemics characterized the Afghan era that followed. The
Afghan rule was much better when compared with the Sikh rule. Sayyid Ahmed Shah Barelvi died in the
battle at Balakot in 1831, while engaged in the mission to liberate Kashmir from tyrannical rulers of the
Sikhs. The Dogra rule came to an end under mysterious circumstances. The states of Kashmir, Kulu,
Mandi and Kangra were ceded by the Sikhs to the British in lieu of an indemnity of ten million rupees;
the Dogra, Gulab Singh (d. 1857) made payment of seven and a half million nanakshahi (equivalent to
$680,000) and through the Treaty of Amritsar (1846) obtained possession of Jammu and Kashmir. The
Dogra period was only a continuation of the chapter of the Sikh period, since it was characterised by
exploitation. Ladakh was annexed to State by Maharaja Gulab Singh in 1830. Thus this northernmost
State of Jammu and Kashmir was founded by Maharaja Gulab Singh in 1846 and was the biggest princely
state in India before the partition of the subcontinent in August 1947.
The current history of Kashmir dates back to July 1931 when the Muslims started a mass agitation against
Dogra rule. As at the time of Sayyid Ahmed Shah Barelvi, they were supported by the Muslims of the
sub-continent; nearly 30,000 people from Punjab alone filled the Maharaja’s prisons. The resistance
movement reached its climax in 1946-47 with a “Quit Kashmir” campaign and with the formal adoption
by the principal political party of the Azad Kashmir Resolution.
Political Importance of Kashmir
The state of Jammu and Kashmir has since the 19th century acquired a unique geo-political status in the
sub-continent. It has contiguous boundaries with Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China and Tibet
and this situation has made the State very important geographically, politically, economically and
strategically. The British rule took away Gilgit in 1946 from the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir on
lease for 30 years so that they could check the advancement of Russia towards India. Thus the present
Gilgit-Baltistan Province ceased to be part of Kashmir everafter.
Under the Partition of India Act, the princely states were given the option to accede to Pakistan or India.
Being the largest Muslim state, Jammu and Kashmir was to form part of Pakistan. But India dispatched its
troops in a bid to forcibly occupy the state. This led to the outbreak of revolt by the local people. By
October 24, 1947, a full-fledged government of Jammu and Kashmir state had been formed but India got
Jammu and Kashmir state annexed into its fold through a non-existent document of accession which India
claimed the then Maharaja had signed. Consequently, the Indian forces landed in Srinagar on October 27,
1947.
This development infuriated the local people and they rose up against the Indian forces liberating about a
third area of the state from the Indian forces. When the Indians found the Kashmiris approaching
Srinagar, India moved the UN Security Council and in 1949 a cease fire line presently known as the Line
of Control (LoC) was drawn. About one third of 78,932 km2 territory became Azad Kashmir while the
rest remained under India's occupation.
The UN Security Council resolved to arrange a plebiscite in Jammu and Kashmir to decide its future
destiny to which the then Indian Prime Minister, agreed. India has ever since consistently avoided to hold
the plebiscite and has thus sidelined its international obligations.
When the subcontinent became independent from the British rule on August 14 and 15, 1947, it was the
second time that the state of Jammu and Kashmir was “independent”, the first time being the submission
of Yaqub Shah Chak to Akbar in 1589. The State of Jammu and Kashmir remained independent for 73
days. On August 12, in an exchange of telegrams, Hari Singh reached a “stand still” agreement with
Pakistan. The objective was to ensure that those services that existed for trade, travel, and communication
would carry on in the same way as they had in British India. Pakistan would retain control of the rail and
river links used to float timber down the Jhelum River to the plains. India did not, however, sign the stand
still agreement. This added to the suspicion of Pakistani rulers that the Indian government was making its
own arrangements for Kashmir's future and did not consider a stand still agreement as part of those plans.
The stand still agreement signed by Hari Singh with Pakistan is considered a camouflage to hide the
ulterior motive. In the weeks that followed the Independence Day of Pakistan, despite the signature of the
stand still agreement with Pakistan, political manoeuvres were taking place on all sides.
Both Pakistan and India were actively trying to determine events so that Kashmir would accede to their
respective dominions. India retained the upper hand since the Maharaja was in constant touch with the
Indian leaders. On September 13, 1947 the Maharaja asked the government of India to loan an Indian
army officer to replace Major General Scott as his Commander-in-Chief. Initiatives were taken to
improve communication with India by telegraph, telephone, and by road travel.
It was widely believed in Pakistan that India was preparing to announce Kashmir's accession to India in
the autumn of 1947. The Pakistani rulers were also actively trying to turn the situation to their favour. The
73-days Kashmiri government was in the mean time criticizing the pro-Pakistani Kashmiris for armed
raids and border blockades. The new Prime Minister of Kashmir, Mehrchand Mahajan, therefore pleaded
for military aid from India to deal with the growing unrest in the state.
India and Pakistan continued to pressurize and persuade both the old and new rulers of the state of Jammu
and Kashmir. These diplomatic initiatives were brought to an immediate halt when news was received
that a large number of raiders from the Pushtoonkhawa (NWFP) region of Pakistan had crossed the border
and were heading toward Kashmir.
On October 24, 1947, in the midst of the tribal invasion, rebel Kashmiri leaders set up a government in
exile. Sardar Ibrahim Khan was installed as president. The Azad Kashmir government described itself as
a “war council”, the objectives of which were the liberation of the rest of the state of Jammu and
Kashmir, and to administer that part of the state already under their control. A cabinet was formed with
ministers appointed from Mirpur, Poonch, Kashmir Valley, and Jammu. However, there was no real
representative from the Valley.
In an attempt to assert its legality, on 3rd November 1947 the Azad Kashmir government leaders appealed
to several heads of state, including Clement Atlee (Britain), Harry Truman (USA), Joseph Stalin (USSR)
and Chiang Kai Shek (China) through the secretary general of the United Nations, Trygve Lie to
recognize its formation of Azad State of Jammu and Kashmir. But the status of Azad Kashmir has never
been defined in legal terms. It is neither a sovereign state nor a province of Pakistan. In its resolution of
13th August 1948 UNCIP referred to its territory to be 'administered by the local authorities under
surveillance of the commission'.
After January 1949, the initial role of the Azad Jammu Kashmir government was to administer the land
west of the cease-fire line or the Line of Control (LoC). As a government in exile, with the seat of power
in Muzaffarabad, this land administration soon proved all-persistent.
Geographical Importance of Kashmir
Kashmir is famous for its historical linkages with the north, east, west and south, for beautiful landscape,
its high snow-clad mountains, scenic spots, beautiful valleys, rivers, lakes and springs, besides ever-green
fields, and dense forests.
It is also widely known for its different kinds of agricultural products, fruit, vegetables, saffron, herbs,
minerals, precious stones handicrafts like woolen carpets, shawls and finest kind of embroidery on
clothes. In addition to the above, pilgrimage to famous religious shrines make Kashmir a great tourist
attraction. About Kashmir Sheikh Sadi, a great Persian poet is on record to have said, "If there is any
heaven on earth, it is here in Kashmir. "
Kashmir's river links with Pakistan are particularly vital. The waters of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab
rivers all originate and flow through the state before reaching Pakistan. The agriculture of Punjab, as well
as that of Sindh, is dependent on them. If Jammu and Kashmir were to become Indian territory, Pakistan
would face the permanent threat of having its water supply “switched off”, as was pointed out by
Pakistan's first Foreign Minister Zafarullah Khan, “If Kashmir should accede to India, Pakistan might as
well, from both the economic and strategic points of view, become a feudatory of India or cease to exist
as an independent sovereign state.”
PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
Topography
Muzaffarabad District is mountainous in its entirety and is classified among the Lesser Himalayas, with
Pir Panjal being its main range. Hill torrents, sub-montane and intermontane narrow valleys constitute a
recurring feature of the district. District Muzaffarabad with Muzaffarabad as its headquarters is located on
the north of and at higher altitude than Muzaffarabad district. Many of the peaks in the district range
above 5000 metres above sea level. The mountainous system below 4000 metres is covered with
coniferous trees.
The soil is loose structured all over the Jhelum Valley. This is the mean reason for the inability of the land
in the macroenvironment to withstand the massive jolt of the earthquake of October 8, 2005. The shock
was effective in redistribution of the loosely held heterogeneous soil. All loosely held heterogeneous
structures succumbed to the shake up and that caused further damages to the already fragile buildings in
Muzaffarabad District.
Seismo-Tectonics
The Himalayan foreland basin was created in response to early Eocene India-Asia continental collision,
which initiated tectonism and orogeny in the zone. Abrupt switch of provenance occurs from the Indian
shield derived sediments to collision zone sediments close to the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. The
Paleogene sedimentation in HFB was broadly continuous without a significant break and was laterally
extensive. Its Eocene level was associated with CFB-type and related volcanism. Block subsidence or
strike-slip movement along some deep faults was responsible for foreland basin creation following IndiaAsia continental collision, which might have caused this magmatism. Although the Paleogene foreland
basin rocks are largely tectonically concealed, yet their truncated sections are discontinuously exposed
close to the MBT zone. There is close structural geometric similarity between the Lesser Himalayan
domes from the eastern sector exposing pre-Tertiary nappes in their core, and the largest Siang syntaxis
located in the Eastern Himalayan syntaxis exposing early Paleogene sediments interbedded with the Abor
volcanics beneath such pre-Tertiary nappe and up-arched MBT at its lowermost level. Thick pile of
Paleogene sediments also occurs in the core of western Himalayan syntaxis beneath arched MBT. The
subthrust duplex arches in Tertiary rocks may have passively uplifted the lower levels of pre-Tertiary
Lesser Himalayan nappes. Early Paleogene sediments may be present beneath the pre-Tertiary nappe pile
in the core of some Lesser Himalayan syntaxes and domes and thus, enhance their hydrocarbon prospects.
The early evolutionary history of the India-Asia collision and consequent early development of the
Himalayan orogeny, its early tectonic set up, as well as the evolution of the Himalayan Foreland Basin
Fig. 1. Index map of the Himalayas showing disposition of Tertiary foreland sediments. DL- Delhi, DW- Dowar-khola, ITS- Indus Tsangpo Suture Zone,
IBR- Indo-Burmese Range, J- Jammu, KH- Kashmir-Hazara syntaxis, KR- Kuru dome, KT- Kathmandu, N- Naga Hills, R- Rangit dome, T-Tamor dome, TP- Tipi.
(HFB) can be reconstructed from its Paleogene stratigraphy, sediment character and the nature of
associated volcanism. During most of the Paleocene, prior to initial India-Asia collision, mature
quartzarenite was deposited in humid equatorial climate on the Indian continental margin, e.g. basal part
of the Patala Formation, in the Kashmir-Hazara syntaxis (Bossart and Ottiger, 1989), Amile Formation, in
central Nepal Lesser Himalayas (De-Celles et al. 1998), in the Siang syntaxis, Arunachal Pradesh
(Sengupta et al. 1996; Acharyya, 1994, 1999), and in the Tethyan Himalayan sedimentary belt of Zanskar
area (Stampata Quartzarenite and Dibling Formation). The onset of the continental collision and initiation
of HFB is signaled by a drastic compositional change in clastic sediments close to the Paleocene-Eocene
boundary (Garzanti et al. 1996). Detritus derived from the Himalayan suture zone in the north, including
felsic to microlithic volcanic rock fragments, Cr-spinel, serpentine schist grains and sporadic extrabasinal
planktonic foraminifera occur in collisional basins from the Tethyan Himalayas (Chulung La Formation)
and in the HFB rocks exposed in the Kashmir-Hazara syntaxis to Himachal Pradesh foothills and further east.
Regional Geology
The macroenvironment of Muzaffarabad District is located in the Sub-Himalaya folded and faulted belt
composed of Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks and fore deep molasse sediments. The CHHPP
area is located in the south-eastern part of the Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS). Near Muzaffarabad, this
HKS forms a large anticlinal structure with many imbricate and nappe blocks. It is an anomalous folded
structure which extends northward from the Pir Panjal Range in Kashmir to Balakot where its western
limb takes a loop to southwest and extends this trend toward Muzaffarabad. The eastern flank of the HKS
is traversed by two parallel faults, the Panjal Thrust (PT) and the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The
former is older and involves Precambrian rock formations whereas the younger involves the Murree
Formation.
The area shows various formations ranging in age from Precambrian to Pleistocene. At the bottom of the
stratigraphic scale are the Precambrian Hazara Formation (dolomites and siliclastics) and the Late
Cambrian Abbottabad Formation. A major unconformity marked by bauxite and laterite levels merges
with the Cretaceous unconformity of the Muzaffarabad and Kotli areas. Stratigraphically higher are the
Hangu, Lockart Limestone, Patala Shales, Margala Hill, Chor Gali and Kuldana Formations of Lower
Palaeocene to Middle Eocene. The Oligocene to Lower Miocene Murree Formation is separated from
these underlying formations by an unconformity. The overlying Pliocene to Pleistocene Siwalik Group is
separated from the Murree Formation by another unconformity. The area is highly folded, faulted and
jointed and the Murree Formation shows steep north facing dips.
The Murree Formation
The project area is located entirely within rocks of the Miocene Murree Formation, which is a thick (± 6
km) succession of deltaic red beds and impure limestones of Late Palaeocene to Middle Eocene age that
are exposed in the northern part of the HKS and red beds of younger age (Early Middle Eocene to Early
Miocene) cropping out in the southern part of the HKS.
The Murree Formation is composed of red, thinly laminated siltstone, shale and claystone with
subordinate intraformational sandy calcareous conglomerate. The sandstone has fine to medium size
grains, is pale green to grey or maroon, calcareous and greywacke in nature. The shale is reddish brown
to maroon, thinly laminated, splintery, soft and sheared with frequent slickensides. The shales tend to
swell when exposed to water and loose strength when exposed to air and water. The percentage of
montmorillonite swelling clay in the shales varies from place to place. The beds of sandstone, siltstone
and clay alternate with each other, the pattern showing a cyclic deposition. Veins of calcite and quartz are
seen in the sandstone beds. It is also characterized by the presence of channel facies rocks. These include
thinly interbedded sandstones and mudstones and caliche with fining up cycles, ripples marks and flaser
bedding. A tidal environment was deduced but could also have been interpreted as a channel and over
bank flood facies in an alluvial setting. Tested sandstone samples showed density values ranging from
2,44-to 2,66 with an average of 2,55 g/cc.
Murrree formation in the Jhelum Valley is thickly exposed and is in faulted contact (Main Boundary
Thrust) with Carboniferous to Triassic Punjal volcanics throughout the area extending in the SE direction
to occupied Kashmir and in the NW direction to the Neelum Valley. It is unconformably underlain by the
Middle Eocene Kuldana Formation and unconformably overlain, to the southwest, by the PliocenePleistocene Siwalik Formation.
Throughout the Murree Formation, the main petrographic parameters do not vary greatly. The presence of
volcanic, sedimentary, low-grade metasedimentary and ophiolitic detritus until the Early Miocene,
reflects the slow progressive growth of the Himalaya mountain range.
During the Middle Miocene time, when the highly metamorphosed rocks of the High Himalaya were
being carried southward along the Main Central Thrust (MCT), the mountain range began to rise to great
heights and huge amounts of detritus started to feed the Siwalik foreland basin sandstones.
Quarternary Geology and Geomorphology
The CHHPP area is located in the Sub-Himalayan / Lesser Himalaya which is deeply dissected with main
valley floor elevations rising from some 500 m to more than 2 000 m. Steep glaciated peaks rise to more
than 3 000 m with a relative relief exceeding 2 500 m. The Jhelum River and its two main right bank
tributaries, the Neelum and Kaghan Rivers traverse the HKS to form deep antecedent (pre-tectonic uplift)
valleys before flowing southward along broader valleys to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The lower parts of
the valley sides of the antecedent drainages are incised, to depths of several hundred meters, with slopes
in excess of 50º. Above these, the slopes becomes less steep (usually 10º – 25º) before reaching the
steeper (> 50º) higher glaciated slopes.
The Jhelum River is part of the Indus Basin. It has its source at lake Wular in nearby India, flows SW
toward Uri (India), then NW to Muzaffarabad and finally south toward the Mangla reservoir. In
Muzaffarabad it is joined by its two main right bank tributaries, the Neelum and Kunhar Rivers. In the
CHHP Project area the Jhelum River flows to the NW from the LoC to Chinari village then starts its left
hand curved trajectory up to Hatthian where it shows a WSW direction before flowing NW toward
Muzaffarabad. Main tributaries of the Jhelum show NE-SW orientations, thus reflecting the main
structural trends of the area. Ridges of Murree sandstones can be followed for many hundreds meters
along their NW-SE orientation.
There are three main types of deposits in the area. These include high valley fills derived from alluvial
fans and proglacial plains, lower fluvial terraces with horizontal upper surfaces and extensive colluvium
deposits that are particularly abundant on slopes formed on the Murree Formation.
Colluvium is an unsorted material varying in gradation from angular gravel and boulders of sub-metric to
metric sizes with a silty sand matrix. Valley fills reaching thicknesses of several hundred meters are
present along the main valleys, representing two sets of dissected alluvial fans that radiate from the
tributary valleys.
Travelling upstream along the Jhelum valley high level, valley fill alluvial terraces can be recognized that
are several tens of meters thick and are composed of unsorted material rich in rounded gravel and submetric size boulders embedded in a silty sand matrix. The surface created by this dissected fill, the M
surface, is a non-tectonic extensive valley-fill surface, deeply incised by younger surfaces of probable
Holocene age and most likely underlain by much thinner sediments.
These fills reflect regional valley-fill down cutting history modulated by regional climate changes.
Very good examples of that dissected surface and associated lower terrace levels are to be seen along the
right bank of the Jhelum valley around Hattian Bala, Leepa Valley, Chinari, Gujar Bandi and Chakothi.
Recent, low level alluvial terraces and deposits composed of rounded to sub-rounded gravel and cobbles
with a silty / sandy matrix can be seen at many places along the river course.
Seismotectonic Context of the October 8th, 2005 Kashmir Earthquake
Seismic activity in South Asia is a direct result of the collision of the Indian and the Eurasian plates,
which result from the north-western motion of the Indian plate at a rate of 4 – 5 cm / year. The resulting
collision has fractured the Indian plate into several slices beneath the Kashmir Basin known as the IndusKohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ).
The October 8, 2005 Kashmir earthquake had an epicenter located about 20 km northeast of
Muzzafarabad and 30 km north west of the Chakothi project area. The earthquake had a magnitude M of
7.6 and caused substantial damage in the immediate region including surface ground displacements of
several meters. The quake was caused by displacements along the northwest trending Balakot – Bagh
fault which, itself, is associated with the Indo – Khoistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ).
The IKSZ is a basement thrust which extends northwestwardly beyond the nose of the HKS and
terminates in the vicinity of Pattan in Kohistan. Its tectonic relationship with the MMT is not well
defined but it is believed that the increase in its seismicity close to its north-western termination may be
due to its interference with the active part of the MMT. This major crustal weakness (megacrustal)
structure is about 120 km long, 25 km wide and the majority of its earthquakes emanate at 12 to 14 km
depth. It trends NNW-SSE for about 40 km, connecting the Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis with the MMT in
the vicinity of Pattan.
Figure 4 : Regional tectonic map of the westernmost part of the frontal Himalaya
Solid black lines are major tectonic lines from Burg et al. (2005). Red lines show active faults
from Nakata et al. (1991) and Avouac et al. (2006). The 2005 surface rupture is denoted by
aligned red circles. Affected area of the 1555 earthquake (Ambraseys and Jackson, 2003)
and the IKSZ (zone of high microseismicity: Armbruster et al. 1978; Seeber and Armbruster,
1979) are also shown by blue dashed ellipses.
Three tectonically active faults, the IKSZ, the PT and the MBT converge in the northern tip of the HKS,
constituting a very active seismic zone which displays clusters of epicentres of variable magnitudes. The
IKSZ shows a host of epicentres distributed all along its domain. The magnitude of earthquakes in this
zone vary from 3 to 5.5 and the higher level concentration are confined in the vicinities of its terminations
near the MMT and the HKSZ. This IKSZ gives peak ground accelerations ranging from 0.30 to 0.39 g
The Panjal Thrust, on the eastern limb of the HKS has had a large number of isolated epicentres in the
range of magnitude from 3.0 to 3.9 with some events culminating to 4.9. The MBT is mostly inactive.
The source of October 8th 2005 earthquake of Mw 7.6 (EERI) was the northwest-striking (N33oW)
Balakot-Bagh (B-B) fault1 (BBF) composed of three active fault segments located within the SubHimalayas and showing a total length of more than 70 km. It was followed by a large number of after
shocks with magnitudes ranging from 3.5 to 6.4 along a NNW-SSE trend with a propagation toward
1
The name was chosen by the Geological Survey of Pakistan for the Murree-Tanda-Muzaffarabad faults system. It
extends from north of Balakot to the northwest of Bagh.
NNW and the IKSZ. It had been mapped on the eastern limb of the Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis by the
Geological Survey of Pakistan prior to the earthquake but had not been recognized as an active fault
except for a 16 km section near Muzaffarabad (Tanda Fault). The Balakot-Bagh Fault (BBT) was
formerly known as the Murree Fault / Muzaffarabad Fault / Main Boundary Thrust. It is close to the
MBT and in close proximity with the alignment of the Pattan, Pir Panjal, Jhelum and Margalla faults.
Stratigraphically the BBT is running between the Late Cambrian Abbottabad Formation and the Miocene
Murree Formation from Balakot to Muzaffarabad. Afterward it continues in the SE direction within the
Murree Formation up to Bagh. The shales of the underlying Middle Eocene Kuldana Formation have
acted as a décollement plane.
Powerhouse
Figure 4-x: Geology in and around the epicentral area of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake
Compiled and simplified from the Geological Survey of Pakistan 1:50,000 geological map quadrangles (Akhtar, Saced and
Haussein, 2004; Akhtar, Waliullah, et al., 2004; Anwar et al., 2004; Calkins et al., 2004; Iqbal et al., 2004) and the earlier
1:125,000 geological map (Calkins et al., 1975). Trace of the 2005 surface rupture is also shown by red lines with teeth on the
upthrown side.
This fault follows the Indus-Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ), a northwest trending belt of high
microseismicity. It cut across and locally offset the Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis defined by the Main
Boundary Thrust (MBT) and the Panjal Thrust (PT). It also offset Pleistocene terrace surfaces in the
Azad Jammu & Kashmir province. This fault shows thrusting of the northeast side over the southwest
part along a low angle thrust fault plane (± 37o) with a minor strike-slip component. Focal depth was
estimated at 26 km. Steeper stream gradients and higher topography are found on the northeast overriding
block. No surface expression of this fault have been found north of the syntaxis but some authors
suggests a connection with the northwest extension of the IKSZ and the Pattan earthquake of 1974 (M
6.2) located on the Pattan Fault. The Geological Survey of Pakistan has mapped northeast dipping thrust
faults up to Bagh. Between Chikar Khas and Bagh the fault is a discontinuous surface rupture with
relatively small displacement passing through mountainous terrain. Vertical separation was up to 1 m in
this area. Some authors suggest connections with the southern Kiasi and Son thrusts and the Kangra
earthquake of 1905 (M 7.8).
The 2005 earthquake occupied the transitional zone between the northwest trending Himalaya arc and the
east-west trending Hazara arc. Strike of the BBF indicates that the fault is a member of the Himalaya arc,
which further extends to northwest beyond the HKS as the IKSZ. The BBF and the IKSZ thus may be
interpreted as the dying-out parts of the Himalaya arc.
The hypocenter determined by the USGS suggests that the rupture initiated at the deep portion of the
northern-central segment boundary and propagated bilaterally to eventually break the three segments.
The distribution of subsequent aftershocks suggest that the fault rupture extended in the NW direction
toward the IKSZ.
The tremors were felt at XII on the Modified Mercalli intensity scale at the epicentre in Gori, 20 km from
Muzaffarabad, X in Mansehra, Bagh and Rawala Kot, IX in Batgram, VIII in Abbottabad and VI in
Islamabad. Signs of damages seemed fairly minor outside the narrow (5-10 km) width of the rupture
zone. The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data showed a 90 km long NW-SE trending belt of
deformation with a general displacement of more than 1 m, reaching a maximum of 5-6 m north of
Muzaffarabad.
Many lines of geomorphic evidence document repeated surface rupture along the trace of the BalakotBagh Fault. Based on these evidences the estimate recurrence interval for this earthquake was evaluated
between 1000 and 3 300 yrs and the shortening rate between 1.4 and 4.1 mm/yr. The most recent large
earthquake known in and around the 2005 epicentre area is the 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M ± 7.6 but
the damage from the earthquake was reported to have been concentrated around Srinagar to the east
suggesting that these earthquakes were on different fault systems.
The earthquake triggered several thousand landslides covering an area of some 7 500 km2. These were
mainly (90 %) rock falls and debris falls of small extent (<1 000 m2), although some (10 %) transitional
rock and debris slides and flows also occurred. Most failures were shallow, typically involving the top
few meters of weathered bedrock, regolith and soils. They occurred mainly in the footwall rocks of the
MBT and on slopes where the gradients are generally less than 20o, either on forested or deforested
slopes. There were concentrated along the fault trace and rapidly diminished with distance (< 2 km) from
the rupture zone. The failures were highly concentrated and associated with specific geomorphologicgeologic-anthropogenic settings. Road construction and human activities have often helped initiate these
failures. In addition, the Hattian debris avalanche (sturzstrom) of some 80 000 000 m3 occurred in
Parhore valley, burying four villages (Nainan, Buthsher, Bale, Lodhiabad) and blocking streams to create
two lakes. This landslide was located some 36 km southeast from the epicentre and some 3 km from the
estimated fault-trace.
A follow-up of the evolution of earthquake-triggered landslides from November 2005 to August 2007 has
confirmed that the vast majority of landslides has shown very little or no change. Landslides areas that
showed changes were located along rivers or roads. Extensive, potentially dangerous fissures and ground
cracks were however noticed in many localities.
Climate Patterns and Climatic Divisions
The climate of Azad Jammu and Kashmir varies greatly owing to its rugged topography. AJK lies
between three degrees of latitude from 33o to 36o North. Within the length of 400 km and width varying
from 15 to 65 km, its landscape changes from the plains of Mirpur and Bhimber to the outlying foothills
of the Himalayas and the mountains in the north at 6,000 meters above sea level. The elevation ranges
from 360 meters in the south to 6,325 meters in the north. The AJK territory is as such, transitional in
climate.
AJK is cold, and mountainous in the North and hot and sub-mountainous in the southern districts of
Bhimber and Mirpur. Accordingly it can be divided into two climatic zones:
 Mountainous North including the entire Neelum Valley and the northern regon of Muaffarabad
district, and
 Sub-mountainous south including southern part of Muzaffarabad district, Bagh, Poonch,
Sudhnoti, Kotli, Mirpur and Bhimber.
The northern zone has a cold temperate climate with prolonged and severe winter months from December
to May and cool summers. The snowline in winter is at 360 m and 3,300 m in the summer, which
suggests the severity of the winters in the mountainous areas. This zone falls at the end of the Monsoon
winds coming from the Bay of Bengal and they descend into the Pirpanjal range if they are sufficiently
strong. As such Muzaffarabad and its north gets almost 50% of its rainfall between July and September.
In winter winds from the Mediterranean cause snow and rain in the entire mountainous area north of Kotli
district. Snow falls on the mountains that enclose the Neelum valley. Snowfall on adjacent land with
accumulation of 3 to 4 m up to 3000 m and 4 to 6 m at higher elevations.
Temperatures in the Neelum – Jhelum Valley range between 15°C and 37°C during the summer. Its
northern areas normally receive their first snowfall in the month of October and some times even during
September. The summer in its southern districts starts in April and lasts till October. June is the hottest
month. The mean maximum temperature recorded at Kotli is 38oC in the month of June. Rainfall occurs
in the monsoon season from June to August. October to early January is a prolonged dry period, which is
followed by winter rains from January to March.
Monthwise 30 Years Mean Temperature, Precipitation & Relative Humidity At Muzaffarabad
Month
Mean Temperature
Precipitation
Relative Humidity
(mm)
%
Maximum
Minimum
January
15.89
3.18
93.74
65.3
February
17.62
5.22
134.66
62.3
March
22.29
9.63
156.46
55.8
April
28.09
14.15
111.14
51.0
May
33.10
18.27
79.12
42.5
June
37.57
22.14
103.31
41.5
July
34.79
22.79
327.61
63.1
August
33.77
22.44
249.24
70.3
September
33.33
19.38
108.05
61.0
October
29.85
13.63
51.04
56.0
November
23.91
7.83
35.44
62.9
December
17.70
4.00
76.86
67.1
The mean monthly daily minimum temperature in Muzaffarabad ranges between 3.2oC in January to
22.8oC in July, while the mean of daily maximum temperature ranges between 15.9oC in January and
37.6oC in June. The mean annual rainfall according to the above data is 1526 mm, with a total of 84.5
rainy days per year. The rainiest month is July with a mean rainfall of 327 mm, while the driest month is
November with a mean rainfall of 35 mm. The spring months of February to April and monsoon months
of July and August constitute the rainiest season of the year. Occasional thundershowers are common
during the spring and autumn months.
Ambient Air Quality
Being far from the roadside the site major rural and urban areas of AJK are presently not faced with
impact of air and noise pollution resulting from transport vehicles. Air and noise pollution has not yet
emerged as an environmental issue owing to operation of a small number of vehicles. It is only at the
bazaar areas of the main roads that one may find groups of people gathering and transport vehicles
stopping to load and unload goods, passengers and their belongings. It is at these places that one may feel
that the quality of air is altered. Based on a number of observations on ambient air quality in rural areas
the following range of concentration of gaseous pollutants has been anticipated along the roads of the
project macroenvironment:
Range of Variation of Gaseous Pollutant Concentration & Noise Emission Level
Range of Variation
CO (ppm)
SO2 (ppb)
NOx (ppb) SPM (g/m3)
Minimum
0.65
05
05
45
Maximum
0.9
10
12
90
Average
0.7
07
07
70
Noise dB(A)
40
70
55
Concentration of pollutants in ambient air as well as noise level would be raised at the microenvironment
i.e. at the activity centres due to operation of large number of construction vehicles and equipment.
Hydrology: Watershed of Jhelum River
The Macroenvironment: Watershed of Jhelum River
Jhelum Valley: The Jhelum River rises at a much lower elevation and also falls much less rapidly than
the other rivers of the Indus River System. It falls by about 333 m in 160 km before being joined by the
Kunhar river. It drops by another 333 m in another 160 km between the confluence with Kunhar and
Mangla at an elevation of 333 m.
Snowmelt constitutes 50% of the flow volume of the Jhelum. The Kunhar and Neelum rivers mainly
contribute the snowmelt and hence the flow pattern of Jhelum for the winter period is the same as that of
the Kabul, the western tributary of the Indus River. In fact the volume of the flow is almost the same as
that of the Kabul, except the variations due to monsoon runoff. The Jhelum responds to the snow melting
process in February and starts rising from March every year continues to rise during the May to July
period, the variations being due to deviations in monsoon precipitations. The water level starts to fall in
mid-August and continues till the end of September. The driest month for the Jhelum is the DecemberJanuary period, with an average annual flow recorded for the winters of the 1961 to 1997 period being 6.3
bcm, while June has the highest seasonal inflow, with the annual average summer flow being 22.94 bcm.
Panjal volcanics having a wide distribution and covering about 12,000 km2 area are a prominent feature
of NW Himalayas(Kazmi, A. H. and Jan. M. Q. 1997. Geology and Tectonics of Pakistan. Graphic Publishers, Karachi, 554p.). It is a tectonic basin,
which also contains old glacial deposits. This depression with a NW-SE oriented larger axis extending for
about 180 km has an average valley floor width of about 30-35 km. However, maximum width of the
watershed is 65-70 km. The depression represents a huge watershed with the runoff/drainage converging
towards the Wular lake. The Jhelum river, which continues westward from the southwestern corner of the
lake (where a water regulator is present), carries the remaining runoff through a single gorge in the
northwestern part of the Pir Panjal Range, located just west of the town of Baramula. The total discharge
of the Pir Panjal catchment area constitutes a major part of the runoff which contributes to Wular
lake/Mangla reservoir and eventually to the downstream flooding of the Punjab plains in Pakistan.
The Pir Panjal depression itself covers an area of 12,650 km2 and constitutes about 65.5% of the Jhelum
river sub-catchment area. The depression, surrounded by a ring of high mountains, provides an ideal closed
watershed and most of the rainfall in Kashmir Valley eventually reaches Wular lake. This ideal watershed
has only one deep cut gorge through the northwestern part of the Pir Panjal Range. The gorge is 2,100 m
deep with almost perpendicular walls, through which all the water accumulation over and above that
required for filling the Wular lake flows out as the Jhelum river.
The mosaic of landsat imagery on 1:1000,000 scales covering northeastern part of Pakistan and Kashmir
highlights the typical shape of Pir Panjal depression and its large size relative to the overall catchment area
of Mangla dam in the following Figure.
Pir Panjal depression constitutes about 38% of overall Mangla dam catchment area, but because of the
highest mean annual rainfall in this watershed, its cumulative water contribution is estimated to be almost
50% of the total water, which flows annually into the Mangla reservoir as shown in the following Table.
However, considerable share of this water is retained in the Wular Lake and released by the Occupied
Kashmir Government through a water regulator constructed on the lake at Sopore, to meet its own needs.
Extensive summer rains, at times, result in substantial contribution, which could be higher than 50%
during the flood season.
The FEP Atlas (1993) contours the depression with the highest mean annual rainfall exceeding 2000 mm
in its central part. The valley in general has very cool/sub-humid climate with average summer rainfall of
1000 mm or more along with a typical vegetation cover. Generally, a dark ovalish area, just to the east of
Pak-Kashmir Control Line is easily recognizable when the depression is not covered with clouds (Fig. 2).
The NOAA thermal infra-red images of the region which could be obtained from Space Upper
Atmosphere Research Commission of Pakistan (SUPARCO) show the outline of depression with a
different temperature response. All these combinations of typical physiographic and meteorological
eharacteristics indicate that there should be an equally anomalous response, particulary in terms of flood
water contribution, which could be expected from the Pir Panjal depression.
Wular lake in the Occupied Kashmir topographically occupies the lowest part of the large NW-SE
oriented leaf shaped Pir Panjal watershed and is an important feature of hydrographic system of Kashmir
with its dimensions varying at different times of the year. Normally it is 16x10 km and its surface area
varies from 30-260 sq. km depending on the season, and controls the flow of upper Jhelum river. The
ancient name of the lake was Karewa and the same name was given to the Karewa Formation of mostly
glacial origin of Pleistocene age. At the height of Ice Age this Karewa lake must have been no less than
7,800 km2 in area which came into existence intermittently during the warm interglacial periods of
melting ice and which periodically filled the whole valley of Kashmir to a depth of more than 300 m
(Simons, L. M., 1999. Kashmir: Trapped in conflict, National Geographic Magazine, September, 16p, Wadia, D. N., 1979,. Geology of India. 3rd edition, McGraw
Hill Publishing Company Ltd., Delhi, India, 508p.)
.
The Jehlum River passes from East to West through and between the high green mountains joining river
Neelum at Domel in Muzaffarabad. 24 Km from Muzaffarabad is located Garhi Dupata town and further
35 kilometers down, lies Chakothi, which is close to the LoC. Other notable places of interest in the
valley are Chikar, Loonbagla, Lungian and Danna, where it is joined by Agar Nala. This Nala has its
catchment area in mountain system peaked by Nanaga Pir (8656 ft) at Katker and Ganga choti (9989 ft)
near Sudhan Gali. While bypassing Bagh District it is joined by Kanal Nala which drains Pir Panjal
mountainous system and its glaciers at Gulmarg and has two peaks with 8652 ft and 12380 ft.
Banjosa Lake is situated about 18 km from Rawalakot and at a height of 1800 m. The nala at Rawalakot
in Poonch district drains the system that has a peak of 5361 ft and joins the Jhelum near Azad Pattan.
Tributaries from the mountain system in the south of Bagh, Poonch and Sudhnoti districts drain into the
Poonch River. The latter is joined at Sehr Mandi in Kotli district by Nangpur Nar from the north and San
Nar from the south. The latter nala drains smaller mountains having two peaks of 1750 and 4150 ft height.
Floods in River Jhelum
Three major floods with a flood volume of more than 2 million acre feet (MAF) occurred in 1929, 1958
and 1992. The 1992 flood is the only major flood after the damming of Jhelum River.[ NUSRAT. K. SIDDIQUI,
Remote Sensing Techniques for Prediction of Floods in Jhelum River, Pakistan and the Significance of Kashmir Valley –The Pir Panjal Depression SEGMITE
International, Journal of Resource, Industrial and Environmental Geology, www.segmite.org]
Comparison of 1992 Flood with NOAA Data
The 1992 flood has been compared with NOAA images of the same period. Some bright white clouds were
seen on NOAA images and interpreted to be laden with water which caused heavy rains. In successive
NOAA images, recorded during the flood, there were bright clouds at 18:27 Hr. on 8 September 1992.
Again at 08:36 Hr. on 9 September, there was a large bright concentration of clouds over the catchment
whereas, by 15:32 Hr., the cloud cover had moved to north and the Pir Panjal depression, in particular, was
partly exposed as it was covered with only broken gray clouds. The first flood peak of 0.987 million
cfs passed through the dam at 17:00 Hr., about eight hours after the last recorded heavy cloud concentration
by the weather satellite at 08:36 Hr. Similarly, a large bright built-up of clouds, is again seen on 19:53 Hr.
image of 9 September, 1992. This was the heaviest cloud concentration and the resulting rainfall not only
compounded the overall rainfall since the evening of 8 September (18:27 Hr. image) but also worsened the
flood situation. It resulted in the second and a larger flood peak of 1.09 million cfs, which passed the dam at
04:00 Hr. on 10.09.1992, just eight hours after the 19:53 Hr. image recorded on 9 September. The NOAA
image of 04:04 Hr, had shown that the Mangla dam catchment area was generally clear of clouds and the
bright cloud cover had shifted further east. From these facts it can safely be assumed that eight hours is the
minimum lag-time for a heaviest flood which originates in Pir Panjal depression and other contributing
rivers in the north. For the floods of lesser magnitude, the lag-time could be above eight hours, a time
sufficient for remedial measures at Mangla dam.
Lag-Time
The lag-time for a certain water discharge to reach Mangla reservoir from Wular lake, a distance of about
300 km, must already be known to the concerned authorities. The same exercise can be done for Neelum,
Kunhar and the Punch river water flows. The outcome, of course, can not be an absolute figure as it is
directly proportional to variables like speed and quantity of water, which in turn would depend upon the rain
intensity, particularly in the Pir Panjal depression and also the other sub-catchments. Moreover, the outcome
would at least provide a range of time in which a particular cumulative discharge could reach the Mangla
reservoir, for any timely remedial action. At least eight hours would be available even if the approaching
flood is of an exceptionally high category. Any ominous movement of clouds towards Pir Panjal watershed
and the adjoining watersheds of Neelum and Kunhar rivers should immediately be intimated to alert the
concerned Authorities. The water discharge in the upper accessible reaches of Jhelum river, with a ground
station located west of 74° longitude, should be carefully monitored with at least hourly intimation to the
staff at Mangla dam. This would provide the crucial time required for planning the remedial measures. A
planned opening/closing of Mangla dam gates would allow an optimum discharge which could be
synchronized with the expected increase or reduction in water flowing from the upstream reaches. The
reservoir can be gradually emptied in anticipation, prior to the rapid arrival of excessive incoming flood
water or vice versa to provide sufficient time to the authorities for evacuating the population downstream of
the dam.
Water Resource Potential of AJK
Forested areas of the north districts being under the influence of altitude, winds, and low temperatures get
more rainfall than the southern districts having thin forest cover. Because of its high altitude the climate
of the Neelum – Jhelum valley is comparatively milder than that of the districts in the plains that lie on
low altitude. The rainfall even otherwise rises with altitude. The moisture-laden winds cause rainfall in
the forests on the hills making the temperature fall in summer. Thus the summer climate of the valleys in
the districts north of Kotli is comparatively mild than that of the districts in the plains. Furthermore there
is more rainfall in the forested area than in the deforested area where aridity is being observed and the soil
having lost its moisture is losing its hardness and is vulnerable to forces of erosion.
Water Budget
The estimates of rainfall and resulting water runoff shows a range of 1000-2000 mm rainfall, which
averages out to 1250 mm for a full year. The potential water contribution and relative catchment areas of
different rivers are shown in the following Table. The forest in Pir Panjal depression as well as in the
catchment areas of the Neelum, Jhelum, Kunhar and Poonch is unique in being the largest temperateconiferous forest in the region, comprising thick pine and fir trees as well as orchards with apples, pears,
plums and walnuts. The potential runoff figures thus evolved for each sub-basin are estimated for a single
year and may vary from year to year.
Assuming that the climatic conditions stated above do not vary a great deal from year to year, their
relative percentage contribution to the water potential and the water availability can be assumed to remain
at almost 30 million acre feet. Analysis of rainfall data set suggest that the flood water contribution from
Pir Panjal depression together with that from the mountainous north into the sub-basins and ultimately
into Mangla Lake is close to 50% of the potential runoff in the Mangla catchment and more in summer.
Regional Extent & Potential Annual Rainfall in Catchment Areas of Rivers Contributing to Mangla lake(FEP Atlas, 1993)
Catchment
SubRelated area and
Cumulative (mean) Annual Rainfall/runoff *
(Area, sq. km)
catchment
mean annual
Rainfall
Million
Million Acre
(%)
[% of Mangla
(Area, sq.
rainfall
Meter
Cubic
Feet (MAF)
Contribution
dam
km.) [% of
(mean)
Meters
Annual potential
to flooding
catchment]
Jehlum river
water
catchment]
contribution
2,600 sq. km.
receives over 2000 2.25
5,850
Jehlum river
Pir Panjal
mm (2,250 mm)
(19,321),
(12,650),
14.94
48
10,050 sq. km.
(58%)
(65.5%)
receives 10001.25
12,563
2000 mm (1,250
mm)
3,202 sq. km.
receives 10001.25
4002.5
Panjal
2000 mm (1,250
(6,671),
mm)
4.99
16
(34.5%)
3,469 sq. km.
receives 500-1000 0.625
2,168
mm ( 625 mm)
2,722 sq. km.
receives 1000Kishan
1.25
3402.5
2000 mm (1,250
Ganga/Neelum
mm)
5.11
16
River
4,632 sq. km.
(7,356), (22%)
receives 500-1000 0.625
2,897
mm (625 mm)
2,955 sq. km.
receives 10001.25
3,694
2000 mm (1,250
Poonch river
mm)
3.63
12
(4,222), (13%)
1,267 sq. km.
receives 500-1000 0.625
792
mm (625 mm)
2,435 sq. km.
Kunhar river
receives 10001.25
3,044
2.47
8
(2,435), (7%)
2000 mm (1,250
mm)
Mangla dam
(33,334),
38,413
31.14
100
(100%)
*Evapotranspiration, ground water recharge, irrigation and snow melting effects not considered.
Precipitation and snow melt over the valleys in AJK is intercepted by forest cover on 40% area, and soil
surface of the rangeland or agro-pastoral system on 30% area, and arable or agricultural land on 13% land
on which people practice subsistence agriculture. Much of the AJK area, being hilly and/or rangeland, is
devoid of clay that provides the water absorption and retention capacity to the soil. In all such cases
where there is limited interception by, for example the mountains and their slopes, the soil does not allow
infiltration. As such almost 90% of the total precipitation of about 38.5 m3 constitutes the surface run off.
The remaining 10% water is intercepted in the forested area or the springs which is subsequently
consumed or released by evapotranspiration. The surface flow through the river regimes thus accounts for
about 34 to 35 m3 or 27.5 to 29 MAF that flows into Mangla Lake. The entire amount of precipitation is
discharged as surface run off and a part of it is evaporated off, as given by the water balance equation (1).
Precipitation (including snow melt)
=
Evaporation + Discharge (run off) + Reserve (storage in forested
areas or percolation into springs) + Consumption (use)
The availability of 38.4 billion m3 water at Mangla Dam would place AJK among water rich regions, with
per capita availability of almost 11,000 m3. However, AJK serves as the Watershed of Pakistan and hence
the entire input of 38.5 billion m3 does not constitute the AJK water resource. It is estimated that about 34
to 35 billion m3 that includes the surface run off as well as floods and seasonal flow through the rivers
finds its way into Mangla Lake and its subsequent use for hydel power generation and irrigation
downstream Mangla Dam. Watershed management projects have taken care of the downstream
beneficiaries but have not paid much attention to the ecosystem upstream. Deforestation has for example
led to considerable degradation of the upstream ecology and is responsible for loss of water retention
capacity of the forested areas.
The flow of 34 to 35 m3 water into Mangla Lake leaves only 3.5 to 4.5 billion m3 as the throughput that is
intercepted by the different ecosystems of AJK. This constitutes the amount of water that is available for
consumption by its industries, agriculture and municipalities. Under the circumstances the water budget
equation for AJK becomes:
Precipitation, including snow melt
(38.5 billion m3 )
=
Discharge of the rivers + Surface Run off (34 to 35 billion m3) +
Evaporation + Evapotranspiration + Storage in forested areas, percolation
in agricultural land, groundwater and Springs (2.5 billion m3) +
Consumption by Municipalities & Industries (1.5 billion m3)
Water Availability
Water availability in AJK is, according to the above estimates, limited to 3.5 to 4.5 billion m3 billion m3
of the surface run off. This suggests the per capita availability of water at about 1000 m3. This places AJK
marginally above the water stressed regions and implies that the forested areas, rangeland and agricultural
lands in the valleys may have sufficient water but the corresponding areas that may also include the towns
and villages that are at far off distance from the river and stream systems, may face critical situations in
case of lower rainfall. Such areas may accordingly remain underdeveloped. The forests; rangeland;
agricultural land on which people practice subsistence agriculture, and municipalities utilize an estimated
70% of the input of 3.5 to 4.5 billion m3 water or about 2.8 billion m3 annually. Water supply to the urban
or rural water supply system takes a small share of 0.2 billion m3 of the total water available in AJK.
Water requirement of the industries is also low. There are 6 industrial estates and 968 industrial units in
operation, out of which 450 are related to construction industry and 300 to food products or services.
Water Supply and Drainage
The existing water supply network and water treatment plants in all major towns in AJK are in poor
condition, and in most areas the quality of water does not meet the prescribed World Health Organization
standards. A survey of hospitals carried out during the Loan Fact-Finding Mission indicates that typhoid,
hepatitis, cholera, and other gastrointestinal water-related diseases have reached an alarming level.
Despite the abundance of water throughout the year in streams and river tributaries, almost all urban
centers face water scarcity. Residents of unserved settlements have to rely on unsafe sources, such as
rivers, contaminated open wells, springs, and natural streams. Contamination of water source(s),
intermittent supply, intermixing of sewerage and water pipelines due to inadequate spacing and faulty
joints and old leaking pipes are major issues that require urgent attention. The AJKG continues to spend
funds from its annual development program (ADP) to improve water supply service, but those are
inadequate to completely address the deficiencies. It is urgent that the water supply and sanitation systems
be improved in a planned, systematic, and phased manner to enhance living conditions and the quality of
life of the urban communities in AJK2 and to strengthen the capacity of the related agencies to ensure
sustained delivery of services.
One of the main achievements of the Water decade of the 1980s in the water sector is attributed to the
United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), which introduced water pipe lines into AJK. As a
result, since 1992 “Rural Water Supply & Sanitation Project” assisted by World Bank has increased
coverage of water supply of rural areas from 40% to 60-65%.
Water Supply In AJK: The infrastructure facilities including provision of safe drinking water in the 22
urban centres of the 8 districts of AJK are not much different from their rural areas. 74% of the urban
population and 67% of rural population has, as of the year 2008, been provided with a piped water supply
through house connections and public stand posts. Provision of water supply when examined for the rural
water supply shows the inadequacies for all the districts and with respect to Muzaffarabad District it is as
follows:
District
Muzaffarabad
PIPED WATER SUPPLY IN URBAN AREAS
Houses Within
Piped Water Facility
Municipal Town
(No.)
Limits (No.)
16,500
15,550
% Cover
94
Provision of Piped Water Supply in Rural Muzaffarabad District
Proportion of
Total Population
District
Total Villages
Rural Population
Muzaffarabad
0.719 million
(86.3%)
% Cover
served
478
0.296 million
41
Water Quality
The quality of water in Athmuqam ranges from fresh near the Neelum River to rather hard water farther
away. Water being used by the households in Athmuqam is generally from springs. Analysis of spring
water carried out by Pakistan Council for Research on Water Resources (PCRWR) has shown the water to
be generally contaminated with high levels of E. coli, or faecal bacteria ranging from 2/100 ml to 306/100
ml and are not deemed fit for drinking purposes.
Table Showing range of contamination of Spring water
Colour
Odour
Taste
pH
Turbidity
Nil
Nil
Nil
7.2 – 7.6
<5 NTU
FC/100ml
02- 306
Remarks
Unfit for
drinking
The shortage of water in towns like Rawalakoht and Bagh has led to underdevelopment. One drum of
water costs Rs.600 in these towns for 6-8 months of the year. As a result, residents in the areas are
being forced to migrate to upland areas nearwater, placing further strain on natural resources.
Poor quality of water is also said to be the main cause of ill health in this region. In fact, 80% of the
illnesses so far have been attributed to bad water quality. The 1997 sewage line and water supply line
contamination in Mirpur led to 11 deaths in one day. A problem becoming increasingly common
today.
Physical Geography of Muzaffarabad District
Muzaffarabad district is located in the mountainous region that has been classified among the Lesser
Himalayas, with Pir Panjal being its main range. Hill torrents, sub-montane and intermontane narrow
valleys constitute a recurring feature of the districts.
Urbanization: The urban population forms only 12% of the total population in AJK, which suggests that
the status of urbanization given by urban:rural population ratio stands at 12:88. The urban:rural
population ratio has been used as an index of development in a region (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, Problems due to Urbanization
in Pakistan, Chapter VIII in Democracy Displaced in Pakistan, Case History of Disasters of Social Pollution, Research & Development Publications, Karachi, 1998)
.
Inadequacy in providing the benefit of development processes to the grass root level is invariably
reflected by the level of urbanization of the area concerned. Using this ratio it has been suggested that a
share of 30% urban population in the total is an indicator of threshold stage of development and of over
45% suggests a take off stage. The urban population ratio for AJK suggests that the state is much below
even the threshold stage of development.
The ratio of urban:rural population in AJK being only 12:88 the state would be classified among the least
developed regions. It is not surprising therefore that the urban conglomerates in AJK bear a rural outlook,
except the main city areas of Muzaffarabad and Mirpur, the two cities accounting for 47% of the total
urban population. The urban population in Muzaffarabad District is 13.7%. The urban areas in AJK
provide employment to about 41 percent of the labour force in the form of self-employment, with 28
percent in government service and 22 percent in private employment.
Muzaffarabad city is the capital of the AJK state. Besides having the AJK Government offices located
here it has emerged as a major commercial and industrial centre. The city is surrounded by snow-capped
mountains. It is a blend of varied cultures and languages, has two historical forts, Red and Black Fort,
situated on the opposite sides of river Neelum. The Neelum River flows through the city and joins Jhelum
River at Domel. The two rivers play a dominant role in the micro climate of Muzaffarabad District.
Other social problems constitute of high functional illiteracy rates and land encroachment problems
due to greed and land hunger. Unclear and complex land tenure rights worsen encroachment
problems. Uncertainty about land holdings discourages investment by private agents to initiate fish
farming projects. A large portion of the AJK population is rural, however, no alternatives to agriculture
like development of an industrial or service sector has taken place. This places greater strain on the
natural resources.
Women and girls of the area are required to fetch water from the nearby spring or uncovered perennial
water channels and streams whose water is not hygienic as a result of pollution by animals as well as
human beings. Safe sanitation facilities are rare except for a few households. People are still found using
the field for defecation and urination. The bacterial contaminants in sewage and human as well as animal
wastes, along with leachates of solid waste and hazardous waste littered indiscriminately, are carried by
rains and seepages from unlined channels from the spring into the soil and from there into the ground
water as well as channels used for diversion of spring water. They need continuous maintenance since
they erode easily and are not durable; the water is thus invariably contaminated with faecal organisms and
hazardous substances.
The source of water in and around Jhelum Valley is the municipal water supply system which draws its
water from Jhelum River. The water supply system as well as its quality is not dependable, however.
Cities & Towns of Muzaffarabad District
Muzaffarabad Fort is the historical landmark of Muzaffarabad the capital city of Azad Jammu and
Kashmir State. The fort is generally known as Red Fort, traces back a checquered history. It is said that
construction of the fort was initially taken up by the Chuk rulers to counter the offensives of the intruders.
It was constructed during the reigns of Mughal emperor Akbar by the Chak clan of Kashmir and was
completed by Sultan Muzaffar Khan the founder of Muzaffarabad city in 1646. During the Mughal rule in
Kashmir this Fort lost its importance, as they were more interested in other parts of their empire. But
when Durrani's over-took the rule of this area, it again came into limelight and its importance was
recovered. Afterwards during the Dogra rule of Maharaja Ghulab Singh and Maharaja Ranbir Singh, the
Fort was reconstructed and extended according to their political and military requirements.
The Fort is surrounded on three sides by Neelum river. The fort has been in the bad shape for quite some
time and wears deserted look. Its structure, however, still stands with all its glory and historical
background.
The first people to build a fort on the site were the rulers of the Chuk people, a Persian tribe, in 1549, to
check attacks from the Mughal rulers of India.
Sultan Muzaffar Khan, the founder of Muzaffarabad, which was once known as Chakrhi Bahk, completed
construction in 1646. Mughals, Afghans and Sikhs all controlled the fort over the centuries but its
importance as a defensive position waned. The fort was badly damaged by floods in the 1990s and city
authorities built barriers along the river to protect it from high water, little knowing nature had more in
store.
Towards the end of 1947 the Dogra's fled away leaving the fort wide open to anybody. Since then it has
braved devastating floods, ravages of time, and other hazards to project its inherent glory and historical
background.
Muzaffarabad is situated at the confluence of the Jhelum and Neelum rivers. As such it appears to be
located on unstable soil comprising glacial deposits of coarse sand, gravel and boulders. The two river
valleys are surrounded by majestic mountains. A road from behind the Secretariat to the east leads to Pir
Chinasi located at 2,900 meters with the Jhelum Valley down below and high mountain peaks just above
the Neelum towards the North.
Muzaffarabad is the administrative capital of AJK. The city is a combination of old and new buildings
and a blend of different cultures and languages. Unstability of soil and poor material of construction was
mainly responsible for widespread destruction of the structures all over Muzaffarabad and its
surroundings during the October 8, 2005 earthquake. The shake-up has taken toll of the official buildings;
schools, hospitals as well as mosques, while the historic forts standing on the banks of the Neelum were
only partially shaken.
The 'Makra mountain' 3,890 meters is visible from Muzaffarabad while Pir Chinassi, with an altitude of
3110 m, is located 32 Km east of Muzaffarabad. The view of the summit at the neighbouring mountain
peaks is also home for the shrine of Saint Pir Chinassi.
The Jhelum River is one of the largest tributaries of the Indus River. It rises in the foothills of the
Himalayas in India and flows out of the Wular Lake towards the west from the Line of Control (LoC).
The flow direction of the Jhelum River between the Wular Lake and Muzaffarabad (located near the
confluence of Neelum river with the Jhelum river) is from east to west. Downstream of Muzaffarabad, the
Kunhar river joins Jhelum river and the flow direction is from north to south up to the Mangla Dam
reservoir.
Jhelum Valley is where the curling Jhelum River passes through from east to west between the high green
mountains of this valley and joins the river Neelum at Domel near Muzaffarabad city. A 59 Km long
metalled road runs along the river Jhelum from Muzaffarabad to Chokothi, which is located adjacent to
line of control (LoC). The Chakothi - Hattian project will utilise the flow of the upper segment of Jhelum
River up to the Chakothi village. The catchment area up to the dam site is about 13,700 km2.
Chakothi is 55 km from Muzaffarabad on Muzaffarabad – Srinagar Road. Almost the entire district
comprises hilly area that abounds in untapped metallic mineral resources, precious and semi-precious
gemstones, snow-clad mountains; shining lakes, and is rich in flora and fauna.
Ghari Dopatta: It is 24 kilometers from Muzaffarabad. The town surrounded by mountains is located on
both sides of River Jhelum . Educational, medical, telephone, accommodation and shopping facilities are
available here. AJK Government has established here an "Extension Services Management Academy
(ESMA)", which provides training facilities of international level.
Chinari: At a distance of 51 Kms from Muzaffarabad and surrounded by high hills, it is situated on the
left bank of river Jhelum . All the basic facilities viz. Bazaar, hospital, education, post office, banks,
telephone are available here.
Chakothi: Chokothi, 8 Kms ahead of Chinari, is a border village. Only domestic tourists can visit this
area.
Chikkar: This beautiful summer station at a distance of 46 Kms from Muzaffarabad is situated tehsil
Hatian Bala on top of the mountain on the southern side of Muzaffarabad. A road branches off at Dhanni
Baqallan, a place about 33 kilometers from Muzaffarabad and leads to Chikkar, which is at an elevation
of 1828 meters. The outstanding features of this beautiful place are its healthy climate and picturesque
surroundings. Standing over the hill one can have a fascinating view of the sub- valleys of Badiala nala.
A Bazaar, hospital, educational institutions, post office, banks, telephone etc provide basic necessities of
life to the locals as well as to the visitors. Public Works Department's rest house provides reasonable
accommodation to the tourists. According to a survey for this Project Hatian Bala has Population of
20,000; Occupation 10% shop owners, 5%Govt Servants with the rest comprising farm labour. Poverty
according to these estimates is 60%, with Rs 5000 being an average household income
Loon Bagla: 10 Kms from Chikkar, situated at an altitude of 2011 meters above sea level, it is another
worth seen hill station in the middle of dense green pine forests and is linked by a fair weather road. The
ordinary requirements of life are available in the small bazaar. Noon Bagla protected Forest, Sudhan Gali
Dungian: It is located about 5 Kms ahead of Loon Bagla. This place is surrounded by thick silver Fir
forests. Its high altitude of 2071 meters and beautiful landscape have a special attraction for tourists. An
experimental station for the proliferation of medicinal Herbs has also been established at this place.
Danna: Amidst Muzaffarabad to Kohala, a road bifurcates the highway and leads to Danna, crossing the
labyrinthine roads. Dann is known for its healthy climate and alluring scenic beauty. A tourist rest house
is available for accommodation. From here one can go to Dheerkot, a known hill station in District Bagh.
Leepa Valley
This is the most fascinating & loveliest valley in Azad Kashmir. A metalled road branches off for Leepa
from Naily, 45 kilometers from Muzaffarabad, climbs over the Reshian Gali 3200 meters high and then
descends to 1677 meters on the other side into the Leepa Valley. It spell bounds everyone who visits this
valley.
The valley remains open for domestic tourists only from May to November. A few places of tourist
interest in this valley are:
Leepa: Leepa is a small village about 60 kilometers from Naily and 38 kilometers from Reshian, at an
altitude of 1921 meters. Its lush green rice fields in summer and typical wooden Kashmiri houses present
a wonderful view to the people visiting the area. Walnut, Apple, Cherry and honey of Leepa are very
popular and in great demand.
Dao – Khan: Dao - Khan is situated some 75 kilometers from Muzaffarabad. An unpaved but well
maintained road branches off from Reshian to Dao- Khan (4 kilometers from Reshian), which is now well
recognized due to its high altitude (2490 meters), calm & peaceful atmosphere, excellent scenic beauty
and panoramic views. Accommodation facilities through Tourist Rest House and Forest Rest House are
available. Owing to flow of visitors/ tourists in the summer season, AJK Tourism Dept. also provides tent
service for accommodation.
Chananian: Chananian, 62 kilometers from Naily & 36 kilometers from Reshian, is situated opposite
Leepa, near the Line of Control (LOC), at an altitude of 2226 meters. Surrounded by thick pine forests
and nullah Qazi Naag flowing near by it, Chananian is also a worth seeing place in Leepa Valley. From
Reshian onwards, one has to hire jeeps for journey to Leepa and other places.
Pir Chinasi: The summit with an altitude of 2924 meters above the sea level is located eastward of
Muzaffarabad. Due to its tremendous scenic beauty, velvet green plateaus and wonderful climate, it is the
center of attraction all around. Devotees of Saint Shah Hussain Bukhari, take pilgrimage every year. The
adjacent Pirchinassi, phawna da Danna and the areas in the bottom of Pirchinassi viz. Saran, Sud Bun,
Mushki, Sakki and Jarran phirran are also touris attractions.
Industries
The AJ&K is characterised by very poor infrastructure, as a result the entire area has less than 1,000
small-scale industrial units.
Roads and Bridges
The mountainous terrain and river valleys in AJK require a significantly large number of bridges to
provide the desired level of connectivity to the rural areas, and to achieve economic and social benefits
from better access to markets, schools, and hospitals, and thus reduce poverty. Currently, bridges are very
few and most of them have already completed their useful life. Furthermore, destruction of roads and
shortage of funds and limited capacity of the Public Works Department (PWD) have resulted in severe
deterioration of the road network. The situation is exacerbated by poor construction quality and extreme
climate conditions that result in a large backlog of road rehabilitation and reconstruction. At present,
about $25 million is urgently needed to rehabilitate priority roads and bridges, construct about 20
suspension bridges to link large rural communities to nearby urban centers, and build the capacity of`
PWD to ensure that it evolves into an efficient road agency. Improvement of primary roads will reduce
transportation costs, enhance subregional connectivity, facilitate trade, and promote regional peace and
harmony.
The urban centres of Muzaffarabad district are located partly along the Neelum and largely along the
Jhelum River valley while location of the households extends from the banks of the rivers to the top of
mountains. The district and tehsil headquarters as well as the urban centers in Muzaffarabad district are
linked with 1,346 km of metalled roads while the rural centers are connected with 973 km of a system of
fair weather low type roads. The average road density here stands at a low of 0.93 km/km2, which is much
higher than 0.45, the average road density for AJK
Power Production and Distribution System
Per capita electricity delivered in Muzaffarabad District is 331 KWH compared with 293 KWH in AJK.
Power Production Availability & Distribution Of Electric Power
Small Hydal Station
Villages Electrified
Kilometer Of HT Line
Kilometer Of LT Line
Grid Station
Unit
(Nos.)
(Nos.)
(Km)
(Km)
(Nos.)
AJK
6
1649
8424
14157
19
Muzaffarabad District
3
542
1662
4027
3
Transformer/Sub –Station
Consumers
Installed Grid Capacity
Per Capita Electricity Delivered
Population Served
(Nos.)
(Nos.)
(Mva)
(Kwh)
(Million)
8781
445235
438.3
293
3.215
1612
77963
61
331
597,648
In terms of electricity distribution, the overall ratio of domestic/(commercial + industrial) electricity
provision for AJK is 8.7. Muzaffarabad district with urban population proportion slightly above the
average for AJK, has a ratio of 5.6, which is better than the average for other districts and also AJK. This
implies availability of electricity for commercial and industrial activity, and presence of commercial and
industrial units in the district.
DISTRICT
DOMESTIC
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL
AJK
391236
52160
1839
445235
MUZAFFARABAD
69982
7833
148
77963
Hydro Power Generation In AJK
As per the Indus Water Treaty, Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (OJK) cannot erect dams on Jhelum Rivers,
which limits the options to power projects that are based on run-of-the-river schemes on this part. Even a
modest exploitation of the huge power potential of OJK rivers will need an integrated water development
approach instead of the current divisive basis of the Indus Water Treaty.
However, the Uri Civil generates about 50 MW of power as against its actual capacity of 489 MW. This
is because the average water available at the plant during winter is only 700 cusecs, as against its design
capacity for 7,500 cusecs. Due to the takeover of the project by the National Hydroelectric Power
Corporation (NHPC), the state gets a small proportion of the power generated by this power station. One
of the many other factors responsible for low power production in the Jhelum Valley is the elimination of
the dam at the Lower Jehlum Hydel Project to facilitate linear water flow to the Uri Civil power plant. As
a result, during lean season, only 10 MW of installed capacity of 100 MW can be utilized. The Ganderbal
and the Upper Sindh Hydel Projects are currently operating at a meagre 5 MW each.
During sub-zero temperatures in winter, people all over Jammu & Kashmir face acute energy scarcity to
meet the domestic and commercial heating needs. As a result, power remains the only source of energy to
meet the needs. Although much is being expected from the proposed Baglihar and Kishen Ganga Hydel
Projects, yet like the Uri Civil project, the OJK is unlikely to get the required power from these projects.
Like the Uri Civil project, the financial considerations of these projects are likely to fall under the
purview of the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation.
AJ&K has a potential of generation of 5000 MW of electricity using its natural resources. The Hydro
Power projects in AJK under implementation are:
Private Sector
Rajdhani Hydro Electric Project 132 MW District Kotli
New Bong Hydro Electric Project 84 MW District Mirpur
Bat Dara Hydro Electric Project 10.2 MW District Muzaffarabad
Hotreri Hydro Electric Project 5.4 MW District Muzaffarabad
Public Sector
Battar Hydro Electric Project 4.8 MW District Bagh.
Sharian Hydro Electric Project 3.2 MW District Muzaffarabad
Sharda Hydro Electric Project 2.0 MW District Neelum
Dhanan Hydro Electric Project 1.7 MW District Kotli
WAPDA (Power Sector)
Neelum-Jhelum Hydro Electric Project 969 MW AJK, allocation for this project is 10 billion in 2008-09.
Power
The current power distribution network connects electricity to about 70% of the population and 95% of
the villages. However, the network has not been adequately operated and maintained due to insufficient
investment and system losses are high; therefore the power supply is of poor quality characterized by
frequent outages and significant voltage drops. The current overall system losses of the power distribution
network are in the level of 37%,3 which is unacceptably high and not sustainable. The losses are
attributed to (i) insufficient grid stations, (ii) lengthy and overloaded feeders/lines, (iii)
damaged/overloaded transformers, (iv) slow, damaged/obsolete meters, (v) poor maintenance facilities,
and (vi) inadequate billing systems. To address (ii), (iii), (iv), and (v), AJK Electricity Department
(AJKED) engaged a consulting firm in 1995 to assess the state of various feeders and make plans for
rehabilitating and augmenting the distribution network. Survey and mapping of the existing distribution
network are almost complete and engineering and detailed designs are expected to be completed by
December 2004. On this basis of the study, AJKED has prepared a plan—Improvement, Renovation, and
Augmentation of Power Distribution Network in AJK—for which external financial assistance is needed.
To address item (i), the Water and Power Development Authority of the Government has prepared a plan
for augmenting and expanding the grid stations in consultation with AJKED; to address item (vi), AJKED
has initiated the development of a computerized billing system.
Health
AJK has a reasonable network of primary health care services, including an adequate network of referral
hospitals. However, none of the district hospitals has a proper Accident and Emergency Department for
efficiently handling different types of emergencies including obstetric emergencies. Important
departments like pediatrics, cardiac and operation theaters lack essential basic equipment. Furthermore,
accommodations for doctors, paramedics, and nurses are limited in most hospitals. The situation of tehsil
hospitals is even worse, particularly in Athmuqam, Burnala, Fatehpur, and Kahuta. Many have been
partly or completely damaged.
Due to lack of access to proper health services, every year a large number of people die in those areas.
The most vulnerable groups like women and children have been greatly affected. Major problems and
weaknesses of tehsil hospitals include limited inpatient facilities; absent or nonfunctioning operation
theaters; lack of diagnostic services like X-ray machine and laboratory facilities; no proper buildings for
an outpatient department (OPD) and administrative staff; absence/shortage of doctors, nurses, and
paramedics due to lack of accommodations; and lack of incentives to work in remote and isolated areas.
On the average, 75,000 patients are admitted in district hospitals every year; out of them, 32,000 are for
some form of emergency. Due to the limited capacity of accident and emergency departments, every year
about 4,000 people die and a greater number suffer from some kind of disability. Out of the annually
reported 500 serious burn cases, more than 50% die due to the absence of life-saving equipment. Many
lives could be saved and disabilities prevented if the accident and emergency departments are
rehabilitated, the transportation system improved with adequate ambulances, adequate number of doctors
and paramedical staff posted and trained, and essential life-saving equipment made available. AJKG
needs urgent external financing for the rehabilitation of accident and emergency departments in all eight
district headquarter (DHQ) hospitals, rehabilitation of four seriously damaged tehsil (THQ) hospitals,
accommodations for doctors and nurses in remote areas, and specific training for staff to enhance their
technical capacity.
Healthcare Services Facility
Health care facilities in Azad Jammu & Kashmir continue to remain inadequate. There were about 1880
hospital beds available in the area averaging one bed per 2007 people in the year 2008. The total number
of doctors, including administrative doctors, health mangers and dentists was 702 out of which there were
411 medical officers, 69 dental surgeons, 174 specialists and 48 health managers giving an average of
0.185 per 1000 population in respect of doctors, 0.109 Per 1000 Population in respect of medical officers,
0.018 per 1000 Population in respect of dentists, 0.046 per 1000 Population in respect of specialists and
0.013 per 1000 population in respect of health managers, whereas only 30 hospital beds and 11
dispensaries were available in the area at the time of independence.
In terms of availability of healthcare services facility, an average 341 healthcare institutions per million
population have been provided in AJK. In Muzaffarabad District there were 466 healthcare institutions as
of 2008 when the data were last compiled. The data indicate that in terms of access to healthcare
institutions, Muzaffarabad District is placed at above average.
Healthcare Facilities in AJK & Muzaffarabad District
Type Of Healthcare Facility
CMH
DHQ Hospitals
THQ Hospitals
Civil Hospitals
TB General Hospital
Institute of Cardiology
Institute of Medical Sciences
Dental hospital
RHCs
BHUs
Dispensaries
FAPs
MCH Centers/Services
TB/Leprosy Centers
Unani Dispensaries
Dental Centers
Teaching Inst. (Nursing
Sch./Paramedics Inst.)
EPI Centers
Malaria Centers
In Service Training Centers
Total
Muzaffarabad
01
0
01
0
0
0
01
01
07
41
21
58
39
13
02
9
AJK
02
05
08
01
01
0
01
01
34
194
101
272
177
67
11
42
0
03
52
43
01
289
178
189
03
1287
The availability of healthcare service institutions follows the reverse pattern of development index given
by Urban:Rural population ratio. This suggests that the provision of access to healthcare services is
related to better provision of the facilities in the rural areas. It rationalizes the placement of Muzaffarabad
District in the category of districts providing average access to Basic Health Units and Rural Health
Centres and similar facilities at the grass root level. The increase in number of healthcare institutions in
Muzaffarabad is also due to the attention given to the infrastructure facilities during the post-2005earthquake period when a number of institutions were rehabilitated, reconstructed and constructed anew.
Healthcare Service Institutions as well as Educational Institutions are located along the main roads as well
as side roads. Their siting has not taken into consideration the environmental aspects such as proximity to
river banks which could cause submergence of land and the facility, shopping areas, operation of heavy
traffic on roadways, provision of access to the facility, seismicity and stability of soil to withstand the
shocks of massive seismic events.
The earthquake of October 8, 2005 affected 583 villages in Muzaffarabad district where it killed 33,724
people and injured 21,374. Apart from the two government buildings damaged, 38,562 pucca houses were
destroyed and 6,790 damaged. Many hospitals in the district suffered severe damage or collapsed. One
hundred and three buildings housing medical facilities were destroyed. Combined Military Hospital
(CMH), one of the two main hospitals in Muzaffarabad, collapsed totally, killing or injuring a number of
patients and workers.
Education & Literacy
AJK’s literacy rate is estimated to be 62%, about 56% among females and 80% among males. Only 10%
of females and 18% of males complete high school and only 4% of women and 13% of men are able to go
beyond high school. Education has been a priority area of the AJKG as about 27% of its total recurring
budget is allocated to that sector. However, AJKG faces serious financial constraints for
repair/reconstruction of school buildings that have been seriously damaged. About 900 schools (primary,
middle, and high schools) require urgent repair and furniture and equipment. Shortage of funds and
climatic factors like heavy snowfall/rainfall have rendered many of these buildings unusable and
dangerous. Furthermore, about 80% of all the schools in AJK have no facilities for safe drinking water
and sanitation and students, particularly girls, face serious difficulties, which result in absenteeism and
other problems such as serious waterborne diseases. AJKG requires urgent financial assistance to repair
dangerous school buildings where hundreds of students are at high risk, provide water and sanitation for
all schools, train teaching staff, and build the capacity of the education department.
Education has been a priority area of the Azad Government of Jammu and Kashmir as about 26% of its
total recurring budget besides 8 % of the total development budget is allocated to this sector. As a result
AJ&K’s literacy rate is well 64% which is significantly higher than the national average of Pakistan. At
present the gross enrolment rate at primary level is 95% for boys and 88% for girls (between age of 5-9).
District Wise Number Of Government Educational Institutions By Level (Year 07-08)
1
2
Muzaffarabad
AJ&K
279
1352
0
2
2
2
3
10
642
2885
205
1038
120
620
12
42
9
64
6
43
2
11
0
2
0
1
Total
Polytechnique
College of
Education
Post Graduate
Degree
Intermediate
Higher Secondary
High
Middle
Primary
Village Workshop
Literacy Centre
Industrial School
Colleges
Mosque
District
S.No
Schools
1280
6071
Class-wise Enrolment
District
Muzaffar
abad
AJ&K
AJKTotal
Gender
Male
Female
Male
Female
Primary(05-09Year)
6420
5262
7018
5616
25309
23345
27014
25156
52323
48501
4757
4947
22406
23693
46099
4373
4213
20465
20523
40988
3394
3049
15799
15443
31242
24206
24843
107324
111829
219153
Middle(10-12 Year)
4093
3470
3189
2441
20127
17026
17431
14137
37558
31163
2676
1901
12680
9936
22616
10239
7531
49833
41504
91337
High(13-14)Year
2511
2133
1702
1177
14170
9668
10324
6538
24494
16206
4644
2879
23838
16862
40700
The high literacy rate in Azad Kashmir has been attributed in part to the area’s “egalitarian” social
structure compared with the largely feudal structure found in Pakistan. Primary school enrolment is 80
percent for boys and 74 percent for girls. However, enrolment rates for higher education are seen to drop
sharply, with only 33 percent of boys attending high school and 19 percent of girls reaching that stage.
The quality of primary education leaves much to be desired because of lack of facilities and trained
teachers. There are few private schools, especially for girls.
Muzaffarabad districts where they outnumber men: 104 and 106 respectively to 100 men. The report
points out that AJK is not a prosperous area, the annual per capita income being $184, just 40 percent of
G. Total
39089
35253
180995
170995
351190
the figure for Pakistan. Thirty-eight percent of the population is malnourished and, according to one
survey, 35 percent of the population is infected with diarrhoea or dysentery. Only 35 percent of Azad
Kashmiris have access to clean drinking water. The unemployment rate is between 25 and 50 percent of
the economically active population, with Mirpur having the lowest figure at 25.5 percent and Sudhonoti
the highest at 52.3 percent. The report finds these figures “staggeringly high, compared with Pakistan
where the highest rate is 14 percent (in the NWFP). AJK is heavily dependent on remittances from
abroad, which results in poverty levels going up or down depending on the economic conditions in the
country from where remittances are sent.”
Impact of Massive Earthquake of October 2005
The physical and social infrastructure was damaged extensively by the massive earthquake of October 8,
2005. The direct and indirect cost of damages caused by the earthquake to the Education sector was Rs
19,920 and Rs 4,133 million respectively while cost of reconstruction, according to preliminary estimates
was Rs 28,057 million.
Sector
Social Infrastructure
1. Private Housing
3. Education
4. Environment
Direct
Damage
(PRs
million)
61,220
Indirect
Losses
(PRs
million)
7,218
Reconstruction
Costsa
(PRs million)
Reconstruction
Costs
($ million)
92,160
1552
Share of
Total
Reconst.
Costs (%)
44
19,920
12
4,133
28,057
8,985
472
151
13
4
Restoration of this infrastructure was urgently needed even prior to the earthquake, to restore the living
conditions of the communities in the areas to the basic level, and begin the long process of catching up
with the development that has been available to the rest of AJK for the past more than five decades.
While the government has invested significantly in providing access to primary education to all, the
quality of infrastructure and education is poor. A large majority of the children are attending
dangerous/damaged primary schools. Physical accommodation, equipment, and staff in higher education
are inadequate and poor. Poor households suffer more than the others in access to quality water,
education, and health services.
For a population of 3.4 million there are 1.017 million children enrolled in the Government Schools, there
are at least half as many registered in private schools in the urban centers but the number is difficult to
verify. Similarly there are a total of 11,712 schools at different level and there are
BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT
Fauna & Flora
In 1947, cedar, maple, ash, pine, fir, oak, spruce, and walnut trees covered at least 42 per cent of Kashmir.
Up in the forests of the high mountains was an undisturbed snow leopard population. In 1947, the
majestic hangul, the rare red deer grazed in huge herds. In the midst of all the cedar and pine, were the
Himalayan black bear, markhor, striped hyena, lynx, and Ibex. The woods were full of colourful
pheasants, the crimson tragopan, and the koklass pheasant. Above the tree line flew the golden eagle and
the bearded vulture. The jungles were alive with the whistles of marmot and the buzz of bees.
The timber mafia has cut the jungles down. Less than 11 per cent of Kashmir remains forested. The snow
leopard, having lost its habitat, is now an endangered species. So is the Kashmiri hangul. Migratory birds
from Siberia are hesitant in visiting Kashmir. All of this has taken place even though the Azad Jammu
and Kashmir cabinet have issued a complete ban on the cutting of green trees.
Landslides have demolished the new road between Azad Pattan to Rawalakot even before its total
completion! Deforestation means: wind erosion, dry soil, the erosion of soil, and floods. It also means
global warming, changes in vegetation, habitat loss, coastal erosion, tidal flooding, species extinction,
changes in the eco-system, etc.
In general, the entire Jhelum valley is well vegetated. About 40% of its area falls under forest cover. The
forest vegetation and associated biodiversity is characteristic of temperate Himalayan mixedforest/alpine-scrub-rangeland ecosystem. It is not a habitat for significant wildlife but snow leopard, black
bear, Himalayan Ibex, Musk deer and Goral, Monal Pheasant, Western Horned Tragopan, Cheer
Pheasant, Lammergeyer, and the Himalayan Griffon Vulture have been spotted here occasionally.
rapid growth in population, lack of sanitation, and abject poverty have led to deforestation, depleted
pastures, declining wildlife and severe soil erosion. Uncontrolled urbanization and unplanned tourism
have further degraded the environment and the ecological balance in AJK.
The mountainous regions of Pakistan are famous for a number of wildlife species including Snow
Leopard, Hunting Leopard, Brown Bear, Black Bear, Ibex, Grey Goral, Musk Deer, Kashmir Stag,
Himalyan Monal, Pheasant, Western Tragopan, Snow Pheasant, Partridge, Peacock, Eagle and Dusk
Markhor. Many of these are endangered and given the very poor quality of life in this region. It is hard for
the people to cooperate with the authorities to protect these species when their own survival is at stake. It
is important to find solutions that are beneficial to both the people and the wildlife.
There are no game reserves located within 10 km of Chakothi - Hattian. However, as levels of disturbance
in and around the area are on an increase and remote areas are now accessible to humans, wildlife
abundance and biodiversity in these protected areas is getting low. The said animals are all reportedly
getting scarce and are in danger of becoming extinct.
Wildlife: Snow Leopard, Hunting Leopard, Brown Bear, Black Bear, Iblex, Grey Goral, Musk Deer,
Kashmir Stag, Himalyan, Monal, Pheasant, Western Tragopan, Snow Pheasant, Partridge, Peacock,
Eagle, Dusk Markhor
Fish: Snow Trout, Brown Trout, Rainbow Trout, Gulfam, Masheer and Rahou
There are 226 wetlands in Pakistan out of which 10 are in Azad Kashmir, but none in the Project area.
Endangered Species
The known present range of the western tragopan is essentially restricted to a small area of Pakistan and
Himachal Pradesh, northern India (Gaston, Islam, and Crawford 1983). In Pakistan, the species is
apparently largely restricted to the area between the Jhelum and Kun-har Rivers, of the Hazara
district. There are no recent surveys in Swat to confirm its possible occurrence there but skins
have been brought out of the area (Mirza 1981a). It may also occur in the Bichela and Bhunja
forests of Kaghan Valley, Hazara district. However, the bulk of the population occurs in the
Neelum and Jhelum valleys of Azad Kashmir. It apparently still occurs from Reshna to Bor,
from Bugina to Phalakan along the ceasefire line, and from Kuttan to Machiara in the Neelum
Valley. It has also been reported from Pir Chinase, Pir Hasi Mar, Leepa and Chinari in the
Jhelum Valley, and may still occur locally in the Murree hills and Hunza (Islam 1983). Gaston et
al. (1983) indicated the range in Pakistan as ranging beyond the Kunhar River into the Kanghan
Valley, based on earlier surveys in Pakistan by Mirza, Aleem, and Asghar (1978), and west to
the Jhelum River in the vicinity of Chinari. The recently established Machiara National Park in
Azad kashmir supports a viable population of this Pheasant.
The land is mostly terraced and fragmented on steep hills. These steep hills are mostly covered by conifer
forests and not only enriched with fuel wood and timber but contains large diversity of medicinal plants,
wild life, soil, micro flora and fauna of great value. A survey conducted in 1978–79 indicated that the
medicinal plants of AJK were not only enough to provide raw materials for medicinal needs of the
country but also have greater export potential to export the produce (Ahmed et al. 1998). The
conservation of these medicinal plants and their commercial cultivation will help to produce an ample
quantity of valuable raw material for local and international pharmaceutical industry as well as a source of
desirable genes for future generations.
The fragmented steep hills that are covered by conifer forests besides being the source of fuel wood and
timber, are rich in untapped diversity of medicinal plants, and micro flora. The main forest canopy
comprises conifers with a good number of broad-leaf associates, shrubs and a rich undergrowth of herbs
and grasses. It is reported that there are over 200 plant species in the area on which the local population
depends for its day to day requirements, while 80 of them are extensively used(Termizi and Rafique, 2001, Forestry
Statistics of AJK, Forestry Department of Government of AJK, Muzaffarabad)
.
Among the 200 species of economic value, 45 are said to be of medicinal value while the rest are valued
for various uses including food, tea, animal fodder, chewing gum, cosmetics, crude paper (for packing
butter) and dyes. Black mushrooms is an expensive herb which comes up in spring and is collected by
women and boys who also collect the eggs and chicks of ground nesting birds like the pheasants.
About 42% of the total Geographical area (0.6 million hectares), is controlled by the Forests Department.
Forests 2008
Total Geographical Area: 1.330 Million Hectares
3. 286 Million Acres
General Distribution Of Land Utilization
Area (Million)
Hec.
Acre
Land Utilization
A) Area Controlled By Deptt. of
Forest
0.567
1.4
1) Area Under Productive Forests
0.379
0.936
i. Area under Actual Forest
Area Under Deodar
0.018
0.044
Area Under Kail
0.036
0.09
Area Under Fur
0.042
0.103
Area Under Pine
0.057
0.141
Area Under Broad Leaves Trees
0.001
0.002
Sub-Total (i)
0.154
0.38
ii. Area Under Thinly wooded Forests
0.225
0.556
2) Non Productive Area
0.188
0.464
B Area Under Cultivation
0.173
0.427
C Area Under Cultivable Waste
0.032
0.08
D Area Under Uncultivable Waste
0.558
1.379
Total Geographical Area (A+B+C+D)
1.33
3.286
Forest Production
Total Annual Forest Production
Annual Production Hectare
Per Capita Forest Area
Per Capita Standing Volume
Per Capita Timber (Yield)
Source: Department of Forest Muzaffarabad/ AJK Statistics at a Glance
* Forest Demarcated Area ** Total Geographical Area
% of
FDA*
100
66.8
TGA**
42.6
28.5
3.1
6.4
7.4
10.1
0.1
27.1
39.7
33.2
-----
1.3
2.7
3.2
4.3
0.1
11.6
16.9
14.1
13
2.4
42
100
6687000 Cft.
4.8
Cft.
0.38 Sft.
330 Cft.
1.82
Cft.
The per capita standing volume is 400 cft and per capita forest area is 0.5 sft. Annual wood demand is
1.65 million cubic meters and sustainable production is 1.89 million cubic meters. The local communities
have traditional rights in terms of use of the forests and on an average three trees are burnt by one
household every year for the fuel-wood requirements in the absence of alternate sources. Similarly about
5 trees on average are required to construct a house for which the wood roofs have to be replaced after
every 8-10 years.
Agriculture and Food Crop Production System
The mountainous topography of AJK does not allow considerable production of cereal crops.In the
AJ&K, irrigation covers only 10 per cent of the cultivated land. For realizing agricultural potential, there
is need to examine integrated water development to protect and promote the interests of Kashmiris on
both sides of the Line of Control.
Fisheries
Since 1836, Trout fish has been introduced in a number of lakes and rivers through out the AJK.
However, floods of 1992 and 1994 washed away most of the fish. To re-stock Trout fish various projects
have been initiated in the past decade. As a result, Trout has been re-established in the region.
Constant militant instability between India and Pakistan in the area, has limited private sector investment
in establishing fish farms. As an alternative, the Fisheries Department of AJK has
arranged numerous programmes from Muzaffarabad to Bagh areas to encourage private or
commercial investment. Moreover, projects in collaboration with NRSP have also been proposed to
secure the breeding grounds of Mahsher fish from Bagh to the Poonch River areas and initiate
artificial breeding in these rivers.
Since 1994, the Government Department of Fisheries has facilitated the private sector through various
project to provide support and training in constructing lakes, nursing, rearing and marketing of fish. There
are 45 fish farms in Muzaffarabad but 50% have been knocked out of order by the severe droughts of the
last 3 years. Problems of land acquisition have resulted in the development of only small-scale fish farms,
which are mostly intended for personal consumption only. This form of business is relatively new in
Pakistan, and is as a result, presently marred by scepticism. Businessmen seem unsure of the end-results.
Furthermore, the profit margins are although higher than for many forms of agriculture, but still are not
temptingly high.
Pakistan is an important flyway for waterfowls from Siberia to the Middle East. Mangla is the main
resource for wintering of such birds. Approximately, 80,000 birds come each year. However, the
shrinkage of Mangla because of continuous droughts, bad hunting practices and use of pesticides on
grounds has decreased the size of the inflow. Natural problems like floods and droughts as well as human
interaction resulting in soil erosion, untreated sewage systems and construction of dams have had adverse
effects on migration of aquatic life form. For instance, the absence of fisliters in Mangla has led to
extinction of Mahsher fish.
Socioeconomic Conditions in AJ&K
Ever since the virtual separation of Azad Jammu & Kashmir from the rest of Kashmir which constitutes
Occupied Kashmir, Kashmir Affairs has been the focal point of Pakistani and Indian state policies.
Pakistan is suffering because of its commitment to the people of Kashmir to give them the right to
plebiscite. India on the other hand has, despite all the secular rhetoric and hypocritical gestures of
democracy of the Indian bourgeoisie, thrived on the hostility that it has perpetuated on the occupied
territory. It is Kashmir that provides the material for the conflict between the two countries. India is
operating through the agents of its Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), posted in crucial diplomatic
positions in its foreign missions to destabilize Pakistani position not only in Kashmir but also in
Balochistan, the Province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh. Kashmir is not just the battleground for the
armies of the two adversaries; it is also the hub of their proxy wars and covert operations. However, it is
the Kashmiris that suffer the most in India where they are either forced to sell-out their property and leave
only to be obliterated.
In Pakistan the Kashmiris have had to suffer along with the Pakistanis because Security of the country
was at risk. GoP therefore could make only low level of investment in the social and physical
infrastructure anywhere in the country, including AJK. As will be seen in the following paragraphs there
has been very little development in the crucial sectors.
AJK suffered because of constant threat from across the LoC that damaged the infrastructure and forced
the people to leave. Threats and damages have hampered the effective delivery of urban and rural services
and considerably increased the poverty level. Hundreds of kilometers of roads, dozens of bridges,
hundreds of schools, several health units and water supply systems are badly deteriorated. The health
sector is constrained as none of the district hospitals has a proper accident and emergency department to
efficiently handle emergencies.
Estimates from a socioeconomic survey carried out in the year 2002(World Bank. 9 May 2002. Project Appraisal Document,
AJK CISP. Washington, DC.)
show that about 46% of the households in AJK live below the poverty line(The
poverty line was estimated at Rs2,500–3,000 per month per household). The unemployment rate found in
the year 2002 was about 37.5% and the larger part of the unemployed were and still are the domestic
workers, mostly women. Low-income rural and urban communities live in underserved settlements with
poor infrastructure facilities and services. The areas that have faced the most security issues experience
poverty levels estimated to range from 70% to 90%, which are much higher than in the rest of the areas in
AJK.
The field surveys demonstrated that majority of the existing physical and social infrastructure was either
damaged or had outlived its age. It was found that:
 Every year about 4,000 people die and a greater number suffer from some kind of disability.
Important departments like pediatrics, gynecology, and operation theaters lack essential basic
equipment. The situation of some tehsil (sub-district) hospitals is even worse.
 The education sector is facing serious financial constraints in repairing seriously damaged school
buildings. Furthermore, about 80% of all the schools have no facilities for safe drinking water and
sanitation. Students, particularly girls, face serious problems.
 Existing water supply networks and water treatment plants in all the urban towns are in a poor
condition. Typhoid, hepatitis, cholera, and other gastrointestinal water related diseases have
reached an alarming level.
 Transportation in the mountainous terrain and river valleys in AJK require a significantly large
number of bridges to provide the desired level of connectivity to rural areas representing about
87% of the AJK population, and to achieve economic and social benefits from better access to
markets, schools, and hospitals and thus reduce poverty. Several deteriorated roads need urgent
rehabilitation.
 The current power distribution network supplies poor quality and unreliable power due to high
system losses, frequent outages, and significant voltage drops, which had been a major constraint
to economic and social development. Current system losses are about 37%. The Government of
AJK (AJKG) has prepared a plan: Improvement, Renovation, and Augmentation of Power
Distribution Network in AJK, for which external financial assistance is urgently required.
In view of the considerations just mentioned it is pertinent to mention that Multi-sector Rehabilitation and
Improvement Project (MSRIP) was developed in collaboration with the ADB in the year 2004 in line with
the State of AJK Government's initiatives and PDP 2001-2011, after wide consultations with
stakeholders, including the people, their elected representatives, non-government organizations (NGO)s,
and Government Agencies in different Services Sectors.
The objectives of MSRI Project were to:
1. Rehabilitate and reconstruct essential infrastructure and facilities and to improve living conditions
and quality of life in AJK
2. Provide rapid improvement in the well being of about 3.4 million people in AJK, mainly low
income communities and
3. Support the ongoing peace process between Pakistan and India by provision of high priority and
highly visible infrastructure, along with a similar ADB intervention in the Occupied Jammu and
Kashmir on the other side of the LOC.
Among the risks associated with the MSRIP, it was anticipated that Political and security situation will
deteriorate, and that Current satisfactory progress on security and the resulting enhanced economic and
social activities indicate that political tension is unlikely to return in the near future, and delay project
implementation.
The indicator that the progress on security and the resulting enhanced economic and social activities
would not let the political tension to return in the near future did not come true since the problem with
regard to status of Territory remained unresolved. A recent statement in Punjab Assembly reflects on the
situation that has continued endlessly. “Kashmiris have been sacrificing their lives for freedom and the
freedom drive is on peak. Around 150 persons have been killed in the ‘India Quit Kashmir campaign’ so
far and 1500 have suffered injuries, while over 3000 are languishing in Indian Jails”.
Check points, bunkers and harsh military laws that give security forces sweeping powers to carry out
arrests and destroy property in the region are seen by local politicians as fueling anti-India sentiments.