Population change impacts on market sizes and market structure
Population indicators
Population, total
Labor force, total
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)
Survival to age 65, female (% of cohort)
Survival to age 65, male (% of cohort)
Economic indicators
Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
GDP per capita growth (annual %)
GDP (current US$)
1
In general, the world population is growing and the Fertility rate is about 2.4 births per woman.
However, this situation is mainly due to high fertility rates in developing countries. If we
consider the developed countries, the situation is different. In some countries the Fertility rate
is less than 1.5 births per woman.
When the population decreases, the economy will be damaged in almost every possible place.
A shrinking workforce will lead to high employment rates (which is not a bad thing in itself),
1
https://data.worldbank.org
which in turn will reduce the flexibility of employers in the market. Basically, they won't have
much choice in who they have to hire.
At the same time, in modern conditions, in the presence of technical progress and growth of
labor productivity, the problem of labor shortage may turn out to be of secondary importance.
A much less unpleasant consequence is the fall in the number of consumers and, accordingly, in
demand. People's needs can grow rapidly, but they do not always keep pace with the modern
economy, which is throwing more and more goods and services onto the market. Ultimately, it
turns out to be useful "doping" in the form of a direct increase in the number of consumers.
From the point of view of the state, the growth in the number of pensioners, especially those
unable to work due to their age, is a dangerous problem in the future. Social obligations are
starting to snowball.
The market will change more towards the industry for the elderly - pharmacies, etc.
The market volume will shrink, as I wrote above, due to the reduction in the number of
consumers.