Class Notes Economics in the Digital Age Week 1 pre recorded video What is Economics? - economics is a social science concerned with description and analysis of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. - How to allocate and use resources? - Which products and services should be produced? - Who should be producing and consuming goods and services? Who can be the most efficient producer and who should be allowed to consume Scarcity - using a resource means it cannot be used for another purpose - Limiting factors: money, resources, time, energy - Every choice involves important elements of scarcity - SHould you buy a new laptop? - should you watch another movie on netflix? - should you run another km after that 10 you just ran? If you had an infinite life with infinite resources, Economics would be irrelevant because scarcity which drives economics would be irrelevant. Economic way of thinking - Systematic, clear, and precise way of answering questions related to decision making under scarcity. - This is much more challenging than we think: - You might have incomplete information. Ex: a product didnt give you as much benefit as you thought - You might make mistakes in estimating benefits and costs - You might be biased in your decision making. Example: How much are you willing to pay for a bag of popcorn in the cinema? 50 - Most people end up at around 35 dkk, which is around the price it costs in the cinema. - Average markup of movie theater popcorn is 1275% - It costs the cinema 2.5 dkk to produce the popcorn. Most people don't know this which means we make decisions under incomplete information - If you will buy it now it is still based on the benefit you receive from the product in relation to the price. Common Criticism of Economics - People are likely to not approach decisions with economic theory in mind - Nevertheless, economic theory turns out to be extremely helpful in predicting human decision making. - We optimize our decision making by trial, moving closer to what economists consider optimal decision making. We become more rational in trial and also gather more information over time. More rational behaviour - Behavior also often differ from predictions of economic models - People lack the expertise to act rationally - Nevertheless, economic models can in this case help us to make better decisions - EX: which costs and benefits do really matter when making decisions? Cost-Benefit Approach to Decisions Should I do Activity X? If B(x) > C(x), do x, otherwise don’t - x is the activity - B(x) are the benefits of activity x - C(x) are the costs of activity x - Conducting this equation we need the same unit of measurement for costs and benefits Often this is monetary - B(x) is the maximum price your willing to pay for activity x Reservation Price The reservation price of activity x is the price at which a person would be indifferent between doing x and not doing x. The exact point where it doesn't really matter to the person whether they conduct the activity or don't. - Also called valuation or maximum willingness to pay. - If costs are lower than the reservation price than the activity will make sense to do and vice versa if the cost is higher than the benefit/reservation price. B(x) is equal to the maximum willingness to pay / the reservation price - These values differ between individuals Example: Iphone introduced a new iphone in 2018 with a higher price. This iPhone sold worse than the previous iphone, so it seems they introduced a price higher than many previous buyers' reservation prices. I.E B(x) < C(x) for many people. 1. 500 is the reservation price - at this price the benefits and costs are the same, making the consumer indifferent to conducting the activity. 2. somewhere above 60 to 80 - 60€ < reservation price <= 80€ Opportunity Costs Opportunity cost of an activity(x) is the value of all that must be sacrificed in order to do the activity - Many people make bad decisions because they tend to ignore the value of such foregone opportunities. Looking at an activity in an isolated manner instead of comparing it to activities that are excluded because of consumption of activity x Our question then becomes: Should I do activity x or y? - y is the highest valued alternative activity to x - not “should i do activity x” Example: Studying at CBS means that you cannot study at Harvard. You should choose x over y if the net benefit of x is bigger than the net benefit of y: B(x) - C(x) > B(y) - C(y) 3. a) B(guitar) - C(guitar) = 500 - 400 = 100 B(concert) - C(concert) = 180 - 100 =80 B(guitar) - C(guitar) > B(concert) - C(concert) = 100 - 80 = 20 b) B(guitar) - C(guitar) = 500 - 400 = 100 B(concert) - C(concert) = 220 - 100 = 120 B(concert) - C(concert) = 120 > B(guitar) - C(guitar) = 100 - B(concert) - C(concert) = 180 - 100 = 80 B(work) - C(work) = 120 - 70 = 50 - B(concert) - C(concert) = 80 > B(work) - C(work) = 50 Sunk Costs - Sunk Costs are costs that are beyond recovery at a time a decision is made and should therefore be ignored in the decision making. Sunk cost fallacy - Considering sunk costs in decision making as actual costs 1. C(1) = 0 (transportation and lodging are sunk cost) 2. C(2) = 20 * 2 + 25 * 2 = 90 3. C(3) = 75 b) C(3rd day skiing) = B(Econ 1 day) - C(Econ 1 day) Failure to understand the Average-Marginal Distinction - Previous examples related to Yes/No decisions - should you do x or not. Often the question is: - Should I increase the level by which I am currently engaging in activity x? - EX: should you eat a fourth pizza slice? - Marginal Cost: the increase in total cost that results from carrying out one additional unit of activity Marginal Benefit: the increase in total benefit that results from carrying out one additional unit of the activity - Decision Rule: Increase consumption if Marginal Cost < Marginal benefit - It is common to have decrease in marginal benefit the more you have of a resource or the more you carry out an activity Homo Economicus - The stereotypical decision maker in the self interest model is given the label Homo Economicus, or economic man Homo economicus only cares about personal material costs and benefits - He makes rational decisions based on Benefit and takes into account the right costs Self interest is one of the most important human motives, but it is not the only important motive’ Homo Economicus Challenged - Unselfish behaviour - Why do people help friends? - Why do people donate to charities? - Why do people return a wallet full of cash? - Why do people teach refugees in denmark? - Because these activities provide benefits that are higher than the costs. These benefits are difficult to quantify in monetary values, but they exist. Next to that, people receive social benefits, e.g spend time with friends, be recommended for a job, receive help in return etc Positive vs Normative Economic Questions & Microeconomics vs Macroeconomics Positive vs Normative Economic Questions Positive Questions = a question about the consequences of specific policies or institutional arrangements - e.g what is the effect of a beer tax on beer consumption? Normative Questions = a question about what policies or institutional arrangements lead to the best solution? - e.g should there be a tax on beer? By itself, economics cannot answer normative questions, but provide valuable information to make decisions. The positive question could help answer the normative question, however norms would be the basis for the answer. Microeconomics vs Macroeconomics - Microeconomics: the study of individual choices and the study of group behaviour in individual markets - e.g should you buy a house or not, demand and supply for rental apartments in copenhagen - Macroeconomics: The study of broader aggregations of markets - eg. national unemployment rate, total value output - Microeconomics can help inform macroeconomic questions Additional Reading: The 4 things it takes to succeed in the digital economy 1. Customer Expectations: Increased service expectations of customers, e.g preventive car maintenance 2. Product Enhancements: Complementary products and services, providing solutions. e.g Playstation 4 VR headset 3. Collaborative Innovation: Allow third parties to innovate on your platform, e.g Apple App store 4. Organizational Forms: Flat hierarchies with data based (automated) decision making. e.g UBER’s dynamic pricing algorithm Week 2 Pre Recorded Class Markets - A market consists of the buyers and sellers of a good or service. Some markets are confined to a single specific time and location. Others are not Examples: Auctions, Stock Exchanges, eCommerce for shoes in Denmark. Definition of markets depends on purpose: Global, local, regional How we define markets will always be a simplification of a very complicated world - but very helpful to generate insights. This illustrates a simple demand curve. How much of the good will be demanded at different prices of the good The market equilibrium, where the curve intersects tells us the price at which the product will be traded, 2.5 given that we have a horizontal supply curve, and as well at this price the demand will be 6 units. As 6 students want to buy, but can only buy 1 each Consumer surplus: The sum of all individuals net benefits Exogenous shock The demand curve does not change, however the quantity demanded does change. - - Here the demand curve shifts, as well as the quantity demanded. We only speak of a change in demand if we have a shift in the demand curve, if the demand curve is not moving the demand is not changing however there may be a change in the quantity demanded as the supply curve intersects with the demand curve at a different point. Exogenous shocks causes either the demand curve or supply curve to shift. Demand - The demand curve of a product tells us how much buyers want to purchase for each possible price. Key properties: - Downward sloped (less demand with higher price) - Gives demand at various possible prices holding all else constant. - Real Price = real price of a product is the price of the product relative to the prices of all other products and services. Current prices and value of money today. Practically: We could ask for the willingness to pay of every market participant on the demand side and sort them according to their willingness to pay (reservation price) and then draw a demand curve - Horizontal Interpretation = start with the price. At a specific price we can see how many tulips will be purchased on the market. ex: price 8 cents would result in 4000 sold tulips Inverse Demand Curve = start with the quantity, find marginal buyer's reservation price. Ex: 4000 tulips are being sold in the market, then we know that the last buyers reservation price would be 8 cents for a tulip. Law of demand - Law of demand is the empirical observation that when the price of a product falls, people demand larger quantities of it Drivers: - People switch to substitutes at higher prices. Ex: if the price of coca cola increases then some consumers would switch to pepsi assuming it hasn't risen in price - People are not able to buy as much when the prices are higher, money is a scarce resource. Supply The Supply Curve of a product is the quantity that sellers are willing to supply at any possible price Law of Supply: the empirical observation that when the price of a product rises, firms offer more of it for sale. - The upward slope of the supply curve reflects the fact that costs tend to rise when producers expand production in the short run. - - This is because the supplier uses the best/cheapest resources first and if they want to produce more they have to move to worse/more expensive production resources. If the price of a good decreases, producers will substitute to another good that they produce. At lower prices the supplier can be more profitable by producing a different good and leave the market. if prices of goods are increasing, new producers will enter the market as the price is higher here. Horizontal Interpretation: start with price, at 8 cents per tulips the suppliers will be able to supply 2000 tulips Vertical Interpretation: Start with quantity, find the marginal cost of last product produced, for example at 5000 tulips per day, the last tulip produced would cost 20 cents Shifting Demand and Supply Change in demand / supply means a shift of the entire demand / supply curve. Change in quantity demanded / supplied means a movement along the demand / supply curve. Increase in demand: - an increase in demand will lead to an increase in both equilibrium price and equilibrium quantity demanded/supplied Decrease in demand: - A decrease in demand will lead to both a decrease in equilibrium price and the equilibrium quantity supplied/demanded Increase in Supply: - an increase in supply will lead to an decrease in the equilibrium price and an increase in the equilibrium quantity supplied/demanded Decrease in Supply: - a decrease in supply will lead to an increase in the equilibrium price and a decrease in the equilibrium quantity demanded/supplied The Algebra of Supply and Demand - The Q gives us the slope in the curves, positive for supply, negative for demand. Equilibrium Quantity and Price Equilibrium quantity and price = the price-quantity pair at which both buyers and sellers are satisfied. This is where the demand and supply curve intersect. In the equilibrium, market participants have no incentives to change their behaviours. Excess supply: the amount by which quantity supplied exceeds quantity demanded. The length of the golden line Excess demand: the amount by which quantity demand exceed quantity supplied, the length of the green line In excess supply: sellers would rationally reduce price, resulting in downward pressure toward equilibrium price until the supplier sell all their supply In excess demand: buyers that are dissatisfied, and are not able to get the product and start outbidding each other, resulting in a upward pressure on price until the price reaches the equilibrium price Some Welfare properties of Equilibrium - If price and quantity take anything other than their equilibrium values, it will always be possible to reallocate to make at least some people better off without harming others. - Therefore, the equilibrium outcome is said to be Pareto Efficient. - an outcome is pareto efficient if it is not possible to make some person better off without harming another person. Ex: with excess supply, they can reduce their price with 2 KR and which would result in a consumer surplus for the consumer and the supplier. Example Equilibrium Price. Comparative statics - is the comparison of two different economic outcomes, before and after a change in some underlying exogenous parameter while all other parameters are held constant Market Interventions - Pareto efficiency is an economic state where resources can not be reallocated to make one individual better of without making another person worse of Pareto efficiency implies resources are allocated in the most efficient way possible, but not fairly Efficiency simply means that given the low income of the poor, free exchange enables them to do the best they can. It may still be desirable to redistribute wealth within society. - Governments sometimes intervene in the market to redistribute wealth and make it more fair, these often have harmful consequences however. Rent Controls - A price ceiling for rents is a level beyond which rents are not permitted to rise. - A price ceiling below the equilibrium price will create excess demand. - A price above the equilibrium price will have no effect. - What is likely to happen here is that there sellers would cut on maintenance because there is double the demand than supply. People will use bribes, as there are people willing to pay 800 and not 400. Suppliers will convert their apartments to other types of property to circumvent the regulation. Price Support - A price support or Price Floor keeps prices above their equilibrium levels. - This leads to excess supply as suppliers produces more than is demanded - A price support requires the government to become an active buyer in the market to purchase the excess supply - FOr example: the purpose of farm price supports is to ensure prices high enough to provide adequate incomes for farm families. - The intervention is problematic: - What to do with the surplus produced? - with agricultural price floors, the products are often wasted - The intervention helps especially large producers, not in need of the support - Price of these products increases for all consumers. Both finished products and products where the price floor product is used as input. The Rationing and Allocative Functions of Price Prices serve two important functions: 1. Rationing Function of Price: equilibrium prices ration scarce supplies to the users who place the highest value on them. - People that are the most willing to pay for products should be the ones who get them as they get the most value from them. 2. Allocative function of price: signals to direct productive resources among different sectors of the economy - for example, if a certain industry sector is especially profitable with high demand, the price will increase and suppliers will move to this market instead. Market interventions undermine both functions of the price mechanism Factor that shift supply and demand Type of Goods - Substitute Goods - are two alternative goods that could be used for the same purpose, Tea and Coffe Complementary Goods - complements are products that are used together, socker and milk. Consols and video games Inferior Goods - for inferior goods an increase in income causes a fall in demand as consumer switch to the better substitute For Normal Goods an increase in income leads to an increase in demand Factors that shift the demand curve Incomes - Normal Goods - the quantity demanded at any price rises with increases in income - Inferior Goods - the quantity demanded at any price falls with increases in income Tastes - Tastes can change, if a product becomes fashionable it will increase demand Price of Substitutes and Complementaries - Complements - an increase in the price of one good decreases the demand for the other good, because they go together and the increased price of the one product will decrease the demand of that product - Substitutes - an increase in the price of one will tend to increase the demand for the other Expectations - If people expect that the price of something will increase the demand will increase to avoid the higher price Population Size - As the population increases demand increase. Factors that shift the Supply Curve Technology - A cost-saving invention increases supply as cost drops. Factor Prices - Input factors, An increase in factor prices results in a decrease in supply The Number of Suppliers - More suppliers, right shift of the supply curve, decrease in equilibrium price and increase in equilibrium quantity Expectations - If Prices are expected to increase in the future there may be a decrease in supply as suppliers hold their supply Weather - Important for agriculture Case Example recapped: Apple Iphone - Apple could have estimated the demand curve wrong, that the demand curve was flatter in reality than expected. This would lead to the increase in Price resulting in a larger decrease in the quantity of demand Additional Reading: Integrating Supply and Demand Week 3 Pre-recorded Class Theory of Rational Consumer Choice Rational COnsumer Choice - Individual consumption decisions that add up to the demand curves Assumptions in rational consumer choice theory: - Consumers enter the market with well defined preferences. Consumers know what products they like and to what extent - Prices are taken as given. This is the price compared to the price of all other goods - Consumers need to allocate their incomes to best serve their preferences: step 1: which combination of goods can the consumer buy given the budget constraints and prices of goods step 2: select the combination of these available goods that is prefered by the consumer. I.e the bundles with the highest net benefit The Budget Constraint Bundle - a bundle: a particular combination of two (or more) goods. - EX: food and shelter. - On a more general level we denote good one as x1 and good 2 as x2. With x1 on the horizontal axis and x2 on the vertical axis. Shelter x1, food x2 Notation for bundles (S0, F0) Measured as flows: consumption per time unit (per week in this case but can be any other time measure) Budget Constraint The Budget Constraint represents the set of all bundles that exactly exhausts the consumers income at given prices - Its slope is the negative of the price ratio of the two goods - The opportunity cost of 1 additional square meter of shelter is 0.5 kg of food Affordable Set/feasible set: bundles on or below the budget constraint. All of the bundles the consumer can afford. - (For the budget constraint to be expressed we need to have a bundle that exhausts our budget constraint) - Notation: - On the Axis we have the goods (e.g shelter or food) and units of goods (e.g m2 / week, or kg/week) - All bundles beneath the budget line are affordable for the consumer - The budget constraint is the line that includes all combinations of the goods X1 and X2 that exhaust the consumer's budget our budget constraint can be derived by: X2 = (M / P2) - ((P1 / P2) * X1) Properties of the Budget Constraint - - The slope of the budget constraint equals: – P1 / P2 and expresses the opportunity cost of good 1 in units of good 2: How much of good 2 does the consumer need to give up to get one more unit of good 1? For example: –P1/P2 = –2, the consumer needs to give up 2 units of good 2 if she wants to get 1 more unit of good 1 If there is an exogenous shock that shifts the budget constraint upwards, and the newly affordable bundles include the former budget constraint, the consumer is better off (i.e an increase in affordable bundles) Budget Constraints Involving More Than Two Goods - Usually consumers need to choose between more than only two goods. - When we want to draw a consumer’s budget constraint for three goods we need to draw a plane (3-dimensions) - When we look at a consumer’s budget constraint for more than 3 goods (N>3) we are looking at a hyperplane / multi dimensional plane. This is very difficult Instead we look at a consumer choice between X and a composite good Y Composite Good - A Composite Good combines all other goods than X (focal good) that a consumer needs to choose from By convention, the composite good has a price of €1 per unit The amount of the composite good represents the amount of income the consumer has left to spend after buying a certain amount of the good X. - If we consumed X2 units of X we would have the amount of Y2 left of our budget/left to spend on the composite good Preference Ordering Budget Allocation Step 1: Which combination of goods can the consumer buy given the budget restrictions and prices of goods Step 2: Select the combination that is preferred by the consumer. The best bundle given the consumer's budget constraint and th preferences - To do this we need to look at the Preference Ordering Preference Ordering - Enables consumer to rank pairs of bundles - But does not allow the consumer to quantify by how much he likes a bundle A over bundle B - Can be visualized as Indifference Curves / map - The preference ordering follows certain properties that allow us to describe preferences and clearly define which bundles of goods consumers prefer Indifference Curve - The indifference curve is the collection of all bundles between which the consumer is indifferent – consumer regards them of equal value. Bundle A and B are equally attractive to the consumer, at D the consumer would be worse off, at C the more-is-better property applies and the consumer would be better off/be at a higher indifference curve. Construction of Indifference Curve - Mark an arbitrary bundle in the coordinate system - Change the amount of X1, with a small amount of ∆X1 - Ask: By how much does the amount of X1 need to change (∆X2) so that the consumer is indifferent between (X1, X2) and (X1 + ∆X1, X2 + ∆X2) - Mark that new point at the indifference curve (B) and repeat the process. - Connect the dots to create the indifference curve. Properties of Preference Orderings - assumptions made in relation to preference orderings Properties of Preference Orderings for Rational Consumers 1. Completeness: the consumer is able to rank all possible combinations of goods and services - E.G I know that I like coffee more than water and water more than tea – I also know which drink I prefer (or equally like - indifferent) for all other available drinks 2. Transitivity: for any three bundles A, B and C, if a consumer prefers A to B and prefers B to C, then he always prefers A to C. - E.G I like coffee more than water, and water more than tea, therefore I also like coffee more than tea 3. More-Is-Better: all other things equal, more of a good is preferred to less. - e.g I prefer 2 cups of coffee over 1 cup of coffee Why two indifference Curves (for the same individual) Do Not cross Indifference Curves Indifference Curves: a set of bundles among which the consumer is indifferent. Indifference Map: a representative sample of the set of a consumer’s indifference curves, used as a graphical summary of her preference ordering. Indifference Map Properties of Preference Ordering 1. Completeness: the consumer is able to rank all possible combinations of goods and services - E.G I know that I like coffee more than water and water more than tea – I also know which drink I prefer (or equally like - indifferent) for all other available drinks 2. Transitivity: for any three bundles A, B and C, if a consumer prefers A to B and prefers B to C, then he always prefers A to C. - E.G I like coffee more than water, and water more than tea, therefore I also like coffee more than tea 3. More-Is-Better: all other things equal, more of a good is preferred to less. - e.g I prefer 2 cups of coffee over 1 cup of coffee 4. Continuity: small changes in the bundle should not lead to a jump in preferences. 5. Convexity: mixtures of goods are preferable to extremes Based on the properties of the indifference curve we can make certain statements: - Indifference Curves are ubiquitous: Any bundle has an indifference curve passing through it because our preferences are complete. - Indifference curves are downward sloping (This comes from the more-is-better property - Indifference curves cannot cross (This comes from the combination of the Transitivity and More-Is-Better properties) - Indifference Curves become less steep as we move downward and to the right along them (this is implied by the convexity property of preferences) people prefer balanced combinations that a lot of one good and litle of the other People with Different Tastes / Indifference Maps - Different consumers will likely have different preferences regarding the same good Special Type of Preferences Perfect Substitutes Indifference Curves - The consumer is willing to trade the goods at a constant rate. This could mean 1 to 1 but it could as well mean 1 to 2, the important part is that it is constant This Violates the convexity principle - the consumer is willing to trade the goods at a constant rate Indifference Maps for Perfect Complements - - The consumer wants to always consume the goods at a constant ration. In this case the consumers want to consume 1 computer for 1 operating system vice versa and would not be better of with 2 operating systems and 1 computer This violates the More-Is-Better Property, as the consumer is not better of with 100 operating systems and 1 computer than 1 computer and 1 operating system The Marginal Rate Of Substitution Trade-Offs between goods Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS): The rate at which the consumer is willing to exchange the good measured along the vertical axis for the good measured along the horizontal axis. - Equal to the absolute value of the slope of the indifference curve at that point. The slope of the Budget Constraint tells us the rate at which we can substitute good X2 with good X1 without changing total expenditure The MRS tells us the rate at which we can substitute good X2 with good X1 without changing total satisfaction - If the preference properties are fulfilled, the MRS is negative per definition - The MRS for perfect substitutes is constant - For perfect complements, the MRS is either 0, minus infinity, or not defined (at the 90* angle) - For convex preferences, the absolute value of the MRS decreases with an increase in X1. The more the consumer has of good 1, the less she is willing to give up units of good 2 to get units of good 1 - This is what we call: Law of diminishing marginal rates of substitution The marginal Rates of substitution - The marginal rate of substitution is the slope of the indifference curve at the respective point of the bundle we look at. Best Affordable Bundle Budget Allocation - Step 1: Which combination of good can the consumer buy given the budget restrictions and price of goods Step 2: Select the combination that is preferred by the consumer - Preference Ordering: - Enables consumer to rank pairs of bundles - But does not allow the consumer to quantify by how much he/she likes bundle A over bundle B The Best Affordable Bundle Consumers Goal: to choose the best affordable bundle, given the consumer's budget restriction - The same thing as reaching the highest indifference curve the consumer can, given the budget constraint. - The best bundle may lie at the point of tangency between the highest indifference curve and the budget constraint. - or, there may be a corner solution where she consumers zero of one of the goods EX: the best affordable bundle in regards to shelter and food. - - The best affordable bundle here, F, where we have tangency between the indifference curve and the budget constraint, and the MRS of the indifference curve is the same as the slope of the budget constraint. The best affordable bundle must lie on the budget constraint and not inside. Because this would imply a bundle of less of the goods than possible. A is not the best affordable bundle despite it is on the budget constraint because it is at the same indifference curve as D and D is less than F The Condition For The Best Affordable Bundle If there is an Interior Solution the condition that must be satisfied is: If there is a Corner Solution, there is no point on the preference curve that has the same slope as the budget constraint. For all points on the indifference curves Tangency Condition: The slope of the indifference curve, measured by the Marginal Rate of Substitution, must be the same as the slope of the budget constraint measured by –P1 / P2 What if MRS != P1/P2 - Assume that MRS = 2 and P1 / P2 = 1 - The consumer is willing to give up 2 units of good 2 for 1 unit of good 1 at point A (indifference curve) - At a price ratio of 1, she would only need to give up 1 unit of good 1 for 1 unit of good 2 (budget constraint) - so she would be better of by making this trade (because more is better), therefore we know that this is not the best affordable bundle as the MRS is higher than the slope of the budget constraint - Assume that MRS = 1 and P1 / P2 = 2 - The consumer is willing to trade good 1 and good 2 in the ratio 1:1 - At the price ratio of 2, the consumer only need to give up 1 unit of good 1 for 2 units of good 2 – so she would be better of making this trade, meaning point A is not the best affordable bundle and she should could move to a higher indifference curve - An unrestricted grant would correspond to the budget B1 in the diagram B2 is the restricted budget constraint On B1 the university would want to spend more than 2 million on the secular activities anyway, so the restriction will have no effect. In relation to similar government policies regarding rent support, we can see that if people spend more money on rent than they receive in grants anyway then the restriction that it can only be used for rent serves no purpose and only creates unnecessary byrochrasy Corner Solutions - Corner solutions are solutions in which a consumer is best off by only consuming 1 of the two goods in a two dimensional table. - - - - The best affordable bundle in this case is A where the consumer only purchases food and no shelter. This is the case if there is no point where the Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS) is equal to the price ratio In this case the MRS is always smaller than the the budget constraint or price ratio, which is why the consumer is best of using a corner solution and only 1 of the two goods Another situation where the best affordable bundle is a corner solution is for perfect substitutes. (if the slope of the indifference curve isnt equal to the slope of the budget constraint because then there would be an indifference curve that overlap the budget constraint along the whole curve Perfect substitutes is a bundle where the consumer is willing to trade them at a constant rate where MRS is constant. In these cases the MRS is never the same as the P1/P2 (price ratio) In this case MRS is larger than P1/P2. Interior Solution In a choice between two goods, a case in which the consumer consumes a positive amount of both goods is what we call an interior solution - But, it is actually not the most common solution - However, it is more interesting and more informative to analyze External Reading: Defeating Future Fatigue Utility Functions - Utility functions yield a ‘number’ that represents the amount of satisfaction provided by the consumption of a bundle - U(X1, X2) = aX1 + bX2 - The utility of consuming good X1, and X2 as a function of their respective quantities consumed. - Measured in utils (arbitrary units) Not about the actual number of utils but it is the ranking of bundles based on utils that matters Reading: Defeating Feature Fatigue - Manufacturers tend to include more and more features in their products that increase products’ capabilities but negatively influence the products usability Consumers Value both: - A products capability - A products usability Consumer's utility function for Product A: - Prior to consumption, consumers value capability higher than usability a > B (should be the alpha and beta sign) Post consumption, consumers value usability higher than capability : a < B consumers do not know their actual utility of a product before using it. They can only form an expectation of the utility of a product: 1. more is better and completeness 2. Technology products and utility products Question 2 - The issue is especially prevalent for complicated products that are difficult to assess prior to consumption. E.g Cars, X-Ray equipment We often distinguish between 2 categories of goods. For experience good, pre-consumption utility assessment is particularly dificult - Search Goods possess attributes that can be evaluated prior to purchase or consumption. E.g a toaster, fridge, vacuum cleaner (consumer electronics) - Experience Goods can be accurately evaluated only after the product has been purchased and experienced. E.g visiting a concert, playing a computer game, books Week 4 - Pre Recorded Video: Individual and Market Demand Deriving The Individual Demand Curve The Individual Demand Curve Price-consumption curve (PCC): for a good X is the set of optimal bundles traced on an indifference map as the price of X varies (holding income and the price of all other goods constant) Individual Demand Curve : is a relationship that tells how much the consumer wants to purchase at different prices - With the budget constraint and the indifference curves we find the bundle providing the highest value given the budget restriction – the bundle a rational consumer should choose - The Demand Curve shows which quantity is demanded at a given price From optimal bundles to demand curve: - We look at the indifference map for a good q1, and the composite good q2 - Now we change the price for q1, p1 , holding the budget m, price p2 for q2, and preferences constant, which rotates the budget constraint - If we plot the price-quantity combinations into the coordinate system for the demand curve, p1(q1), we arrive at the individual demand curve for the focal consumer. B1: Y = 24 - 3Q B2: Y = 24 - 2Q B3: Y = 24 - Q Bundle 1: Q = 4, P = 3 Bundle 2: Q = 6, P = 2 Bundle 3: Q = 8, P = 1 equation: slope = (y2 - y1) / (X2 - X1) = (2 - 1) / (6 - 8) = -1 / 2 = –(½)Q P(5) = Q0 P = 5 – (½)Qx Qx = 10 – 2P Solution: Exercise – Individual Demand Changes In Income The Effects of Changes in Income Income-Consumption Curve (ICC): for a good X is the set of optimal bundles traced on an indifference map as income varies (holding the prices of X1 and X2 and preference constant). Engel Curve: curve that plots the relationship between the quantity of X consumed and income. - - - Here we have the composite good at the Y-axis and shelter in sq.m / wk on the X-axis. we look at the best affordable bundle of a consumer that wants to consume shelter, holding preferences and price constant. at bundle 2 (from left to right) we have a budget of €60 and after consuming 3 sq.m / wk of shelter we have 30€ left of our composite good bundle 3 we have a budget of 100€ and choose to consume 5 sq.m /wk of shelter leaving us with €50 left of the composite good, etc for the 4 different budgets. When we trace the points we get our ICC - income consumption curve Here the ICC is linear, but it doesn't have to be, we get it by tracing our best affordable bundles If we take this combination of different budget and the quantities from the best affordable bundles we reach the engle curve Here we have the combinations of how much a rational consumer would consume given that a certain budget is available - ICC vertical axis: shows the amount the consumer spends each week on all goods other than shelter (composite good) Engel Curve vertical axis: shows the consumer’s total weekly income. The engel curve shows us how quantity demanded varies with the income a consumer has at his disposal. Normal and Inferior Goods The Effects of Change in Income Normal Good: a good whose quantity demanded rises as income rises Inferior Good: a good whose quantity demanded falls as income rises What are examples of normal goods and inferior goods? - The prototypical inferior good is one with several strongly preferred, but more expensive substitutes Strictly speaking, these examples represent examples only for the preferences of a certain consumer – for other consumers, preferences might look different - - Here we can see that as the income rises, the quantity consumed of a normal good, a tenderloin, increases. This shows by an upward sloping engel curve For the inferior good, the hamburger, the quantity consumed decreases as the income rises. This in turn leads to a downward sloping engel curve Substitution and Income Effects - what we do here is a systematic analysis of the effect of a change in price of a good (P1) on the demand for this good (X1) A change in price has two effects: 1. The Substitution Effect - The ratio at which you can exchange the good (X1) with another good (X2) changes 2. The Income Effect - The purchasing power of the consumer (holding her income constant) changes Substitution effect: results from the associated change in the relative attractiveness of other goods - e.g if Cola becomes more expensive, consumers substitute to pepsi Income effect: results from the associated change in purchasing power - e.g as the consumer has less real income (less purchasing power), she will be able to buy less cola. Total effect: the sum of the substitution and income effects Example: - what we observe here is the optimal bundles to consume for a consumer that wants to consume shelter on the X-axis and the composite good on the Y-axis - what is happening here is that the price increases from 6/sq. m to 24/sq. m. our budget M is constant at 120€. The budget constraint however rotates inwards. - With the price increase we move from the optimal bundle A to D - The shift in the quantity consumed, from 10 to 2 (or A to D) is the total effect - After the change in price, the rotation of the budget constraint, we do the following steps 1. Create a hypothetical budget constraint that allows us to stay on the original budget constraint, we increase our budget until we find a tangency point with the original indifference curve. this is B’ in the picture - How much Income would the consumer need to reach his original indifference curve (I0) after the increase in the price of shelter? - The slope of our new budget constraint needs to be the same as the budget constraint after the price change, B1, as were looking at the new price ratio - After creating our hypothetical budget constraint B’ we can see that we reach a new bundle C on our first indifference curve 2. The point C at B’ and I0 shows that if the consumer would face this price ratio and get at the same indifference curve he would purchase bundle C - The distance between the quantity demanded in the original bundle, A, and the hypothetical bundle where we could reach the same indifference curve with B’ is what we call the Substitution effect - Substitution effect - The shift in quantity demanded originating from the decrease in relative attractives of shelter given the increase in price. 3. The movement from bundle C on B’, to D on B1, the optimal bundle given the new price and our budget constraint, is what we call Income Effect - Income Effect - a reduction in purchasing power as the price of shelter increases. Income and Substitution effects - The Substitution effect always causes the quantity consumed to move in the opposite direction as the change in price The direction of the Income Effect depends on whether the good is normal or inferior - For normal goods, the income effect works in the same direction as the substitution effect - so if we have an increase in the price and we have a normal good than the income effect will reduce the quantity consumed of the good - For inferior goods, by contrast, the income and substitution effects work against one another - example below - - Here we have the inferior good, the hamburger, it’s quantity demanded is denoted on the X-axis. On the Y-axis we have our composite good B1 illustrates an increase in price, an inwards rotation of budget constraint D on I1 is our new best affordable bundle. The distance between A and D is our total effect. To decompose this we create a hypothetical budget constraint B’ which is parallel to the new budget constraint and it is at a point of tangency with the original indifference curve This illustrates the hypothetical optimal bundle of C The distance between C and A is the substitution effect, the change in quantity demanded caused by the change in relative price of the hamburger The distance from C to D, caused by our decreased purchasing power, works in the opposite direction, subtracting the substitution effect causing the total effect to be smaller than the substitution effect - Skis and bindings are perfect complements, we always want to consume them in the constant ratio 1:1 When the price of bindings doubles we can no longer reach our old indifference curve, the budget constraint rotates inwards Our hypothetical budget constraint, that allows us to reach our old indifference curve reaches a point of tangency as the original optimal bundle, C = A This means that, for perfect complements the substitution effect is zero, there is no difference between C and A This means that the total effect is equal to the income effect Aggregating Market Demand Market Demand Curves Market demand Curve: the horizontal summation of the individual demand curves - This is what we see bellow, we look at different prices of shelter, and see how many quantities, sq. m / wk these consumers consume - At a price of 12, only one consumer purchases shelter, which is the only consumption illustrated in the horizontal summation - The second consumer only has a demand after P=8€ so here the demand curve of the horizontal summation changes Algebra of Market Demand Curves - If each consumer i has a demand curve of: - Because we ad quantities and not prices we would have to rearrange this to - Then, the market demand for all consumers, n, is given by the sum of all individual demand curves: Note: We can only add demand curves for price levels at which all consumers demand the focal good. We can not ad a demand curve of a consumer, who for say, has a demand at P=100€ if no one else has a demand here 1 P1 = 16 - 2Q1 Q1 = 8 – 0.5P 2 P = 8 - 2Q2 Q2 = 4 - 0.5P 3 (horizontal summation) For 16>=P>8: P = 16 - 2Q For 8>=P>=0: P = 12 - Q Summation For 8>=P>=0: Q = Q1 + Q2 = 8 - 0.5P + 4 - 0.5P = 12 - P P = 12 - Q - - If we want to add these two individual demand curves in the market, we have to careful to look at these price ranges At a price of 8 and higher, consumer 2 will not demand any shelter, this means for 16>=P>=8, we simply have the demand of consumer 1: P = 16 - 0.5P As soon as P is smaller than 8, we need to aggregate the demand and sum up the 2 individual demand curves, using horizontal summation, to create the market demand curve. Algebra of Market Demand Curves - if n consumers each have the same demand curve - Rearrange to give: - Then, we could simply multiply the individual demand curve with n given that all the individual consumers would have the exact same demand curve, and the market demand is given by: - Rearranging we get: Price Elasticity of Demand Price elasticity of demand: the percentage change in the quantity of a good demanded that result from a 1% change in its price - Elastic: if the quantity demanded changes more than 1% (–1%) Unit elastic: if the quantity demanded changes 1% (–1%) - Inelastic: if the quantity demanded changes between 1 - 0% (–1 - 0%) Table: Price Elasticity estimates for Selected Products: - - Green peas are elastic, and have a price elasticity of –2.8 which is higher than -1. meaning that at a 1% increase in price, many people would substitute it for other vegetables. Cigarettes however is inelastic, meaning if the price would increase by 1% the demand wouldn’t decrease by that much The Price elasticity of demand at current price and quantity is algebraically defined as: It may be derived using the slope of the demand curve: slope = ∆P / ∆Q = (0 – 16) / (8 – 0) = –16 / 8 = – 2 PA = 12 QA = 2 = (12 / 2) * (1 / –2) = 6 * (1 / –2) = –3 P = 40 – Q slope = – Q or (– 1) 32 = 40 – Q Q=8 epsilon = (32 / 8) * (1 / –1) = 4 * –1 = –4 - - The price elasticity of demand is inversely related to the slope of the demand curve. The steeper the demand curve, the less elastic is demand at any point along the demand curve with a horizontal demand curve, a perfectly elastic demand curve, e=–∞ with a vertical demand curve we have inelastic demand e=0 - - - another important thing to understand in relation to the price elasticity of demand depends not only on the slope, but also on the position on the demand curve Therefore, there will be different values of price elasticity of demand on different points of the demand curve, with different price / quantity values In the above picture you can see that we have a slope of the demand curve that is constant. But as we have different points on the demand curve we have different values of price elasticity of demand Also, note that we usually write the absolute value of price elasticity of demand and therefor remove “–”, i.e 1 and not –1 Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand Substitution Possibilities: the substitution effect of a price change tends to be small for goods with no close substitutes. - We have a more stable demand, low price elasticity of demand, if there are few substitution possibilities, they cant switch products - a good with many substitutes have a high price elasticity of demand Budget Share: the larger the share of total expenditures accounted for by the product, the more important will be the income effect of a price change Direction of income effect: a normal good will have a higher price elasticity than an inferior good Time: demand for a good will be more responsive to price in the long run than in the short run as it may take time for people to find substitutes - Higher price elasticity for a longer time period External Reading: A refresher on price Elasticity In the reading the author uses some other definitions for price elasticity Product have different price elasticities of demand - Perfectly elastic: very small change in price results in a very large change in the quantity demanded. E.g “pure commodities” - Relatively Elastic: small change in price cause large changes in the quantity demanded. E.g Beef - Unit Elastic: change in price is matched by an equal change in quantity demanded - Relatively Inelastic: large changes in price cause small changes in demand. E.g Gasoline “products with stronger brands tend to be more inelastic” - Perfectly inelastic: quantity demanded does not change when price changes. E.g Fee for new passport, or medicine Our definition: a) Iphone – apple b) Inelastic or unit elastic, the demand has pretty much stayed the same during recent years, or dropped a bit, while the price has increased. c) They could try to create a stronger brand, as this would differentiate them from other products and create additional value for the customers. Thy could market the features that differentiate them, or a lifestyle representing the product that differentiate them that decreases the customer perceived substitution possibilities. d) Other competitors could create features or a brand image that is different and similarly attractive as the iphone to increase the perceived substitution possibilities or try to emulate the features and brand to make them more similar and thereby also increase perceived substitution possibilities among customers’ Week 5 Pre-recorded video – Consumer Surplus and Elasticity - To calculate the cross price elasticity of demand we use comparative statics. We hold the price of our focal good P1, and our income M constant, changing the price P2 of another good X2 - In this situation the demand curve rotates on the vertical axis, we have the same income and the price of X1 is the same The price of P2 changes however and is now P2’ and the quantity we can afford of X2 is now lower. We can now not reach the old indifference curve but only reach a lower one, where the new optimal bundle is - Demand of X depending on the Price of Z? - The demand of X depends also on the price of another good Z here we distinguish between two types of goods Complements - An increase in the price of good 2 leads to a decrease in demand for good 1 - This is because these goods are consumed together. If the price of one increases the consumption of the other decreases Substitutes – An increase in the price of good 2 leads to an increase in the demand for good 1 (focal good). - This is because the relative attractiveness of good 2 in relation to good 1 decreases as the price of good 2 increases as they fulfill the same need. Cross Price Elasticity of Demand Cross-price elasticity of demand - the percentage change in the quantity demanded of one good caused by a 1% change in the price of the other good eXZ = (∆Qx / Qx) / (∆Pz / Pz) The cross-price elasticity of demand for any two goods X and Z is: - You can also make use of the point slope method: eXY = (PY / QX) * (1/slope) - - - if eXZ < 0. X and Z are complements - if cross price elasticity is smaller than 0, X and Z are complements meaning if the price of Z increases the consumption of X decreases if eXZ > 0. X and Z are substitutes - If the price of Z increases, the demand for good X increases Butter and margarine are substitutes, because as the price of Margarine increases, the demand for butter increase Entertainment and food are compliments, as the cross price elasticity is negative. If the price of food increases, the quantity consumed of entertainment decreases a) Identify the relevant information to solve the exercise: 2017: 2018: - QX = 400 PY = 10 QX = 300 PY = 12 The price of PX is constant (PX=3) and all other factors that might influence QX are constant as well The exercise tells us that we can assume that the change in quantity demanded (∆QX) is cause by a change in PY - Slope : (Y2 – Y1) / (X2 – X1) (12 - 10) / (300 - 400) = 2 / -100 = -1/50 - Function for PY = A – 1/50QX Find A by replacing PY an QX with the coordinates of one of the point, e.g (400, 10) 10 = A – 1/50*400 10 = A – 8 18 = A A = 18 PY = 18 – 1/50QX - When we have this equation we can calculate the cross price elasticity. - Calculating the cross-price elasticity for the point QX = 400, PY=10 and the relationship PY = 18 – 1/50QX Formula: - eXY = (10 / 400) * (1/(-1/50) eXY = (1/40) * -50 eXY = – 1.25 - When the price of Y increases by 1% the quantity demand for X decreases by 1.25%. This means the goods are complements - We can also use the other method: b) b) An example could be that X represents video games for sony playstation and Y the sony playstation game console. The games are useless without the console – when people buy less consoles due to an increase in price, they will also buy less games Taxes and Subsidies - Taxes: fees levied on consumers or firms by a government entity (local, regional or national) in order to finance government activities. - Taxes fall on whoever pays the burden of the tax, independent of whether this is the entity being taxed. E.g Value added tax (VAT) - - Subsidies: benefits given to consumers or firms usually by the government. Subsidies are commonly transferred in the form of a cash payments or a tax reduction E.g unemployment benefits Taxes – Burden on the seller - - - A per unit Tax of T=10 Levied on the seller shifts the supply curve upward by T units Now suppliers need to charge a higher price in order to still be able to produce the good, and be able to operate profitably Here P0 at Qo is 25 and P1 at Q0 is 35 Looking now at a graph with the demand curve as well. We can see the the equilibrium price moves from P* to P1* and the quantity from Q* to Q1* when the seller needs to pay a tax of T=10 to the government Importantly, even though the seller pay a tax of T on each product purchased, the total amount the seller receives (equilibrium price) lies less than T (10) above the old supply curve The old Equilibrium price was P* the new equilibrium price is P1* is not the 10 monetary units above the original equilibrium price as the quantity demanded decreases. - Note also that even though the tax is collected from the sellers its effect is to increase the price paid by buyers This means that the burden of the tax (T) is divided between the buyers and the seller, this is what we call Tax Incidence Tax Incidence - Even if the tax is collected from the seller, its effect is to increase the price paid by buyers. The burden of the tax (T) is thus divided between the buyer and the seller. Calculating the sellers share of the tax, ts: ts = (P* – (P*1 – T)) / T - We can also see the seller's share of the tax in the green square. Calculating the Buyers share of the tax, tb: - the amount of the tax that the buyers pay This is also shown in the blue square - The distance between P1* and P1* – 10, is the total amount of the tax, 10 Taxes – Burden on the buyer - Here the tax, T=10, is being placed on the buyers. We can see that that the demand curve shifts downward by T=10 The new equilibrium price is then P2* but the buyer would need to pay the equilibrium price P2* + 10, the 10 goes to the government The demand curve shifts left, from equilibrium P* to P2* Legal and Economic Incidence of Tax We distinguish between the legal and the economic incidence of tax - Legal Incidence of the tax: describes whether the buyer or seller is responsible is responsible for paying the tax to the government The legal incidence has no effect on the economic incidence of the tax - Economic Incidence of the tax: tells us the respective share of the tax borne by buyers and sellers through the tax’s effect on the price of the good The share of Tax on the buyers and sellers depends on Elasticity of demand - - - One aspect of the demand curve that is heavily influencing who is bearing the economic burden of the tax is the elasticity of Demand (a) is a less elastic demand curve meaning the demand does not react very much in an increase in price (b) is more elastic meaning the demand decreases substantially as price increases. In both the curves there is a tax of T=10 placed on the seller, but the effect of the tax is very different If buyers have no substitute to turn to, with a low price elasticity of demand, they will carry the major burden on of the tax that was imposed on the seller which we can see in figure (b) With a more elastic demand, a smaller slope, the burden will mainly be placed on the seller. The burden tends to fall on the side of the market that can least escape it (has no substitutes) a) P* = 5 P1* = 6 T=2 - sellers share: ts = (5 - (6 - 2)) / 2 ts = 1 / 2 ts = 0.5 - Buyers share tb = (P1* - P*) / T tb = (6 - 5) / 2 tb = 1 / 2 Absolute term: buyers pay: - Absolute terms: 0.5 * 2 = 1 - percentage terms 50% sellers pay: - absolute terms: 0.5 * 2 = 1 - percentage: 50% b) P* = 5 P1* = 4 T=2 - Total tax: Q1* * T = 4 * 2 = 8 ½ means 50% so 0.5 * 8 = 4, both sides pay 4 each - The tax shares of the suppliers and consumers Always add up to 1. Meaning if we have the tax share of the buyers we know the tax share of the suppliers. (1 - buyers share) - The calculation of the economic incidence of the tax is in this case symmetric independent of whether the legal incidence of the tax is levied on the supplier or consumer - Economic Incidence of the tax Consumer Surplus Consumer Surplus - a measure of the extent to which a consumer benefits from participating in a transaction - In a graph -> area between demand curve and price - In the figure above, a demand curve is depicted. if the units of good X were small, that staircase function would be a continuous function the gross benefit (B(X) for the consumption of X1 is simply the area under the inverse demand curve from 0 to X1 At a price of zero the green area equals the consumer surplus - - - Here we see a demand curve which tells us the willingness to pay for either a single consumer if it is an individual demand curve or for all the consumers if it is is a market demand curve Consumers are willing to purchase more of the focal good, here X1, until their marginal benefit is lower than the marginal cost of the next unit, therefore we know where the market equilibrium is It as well means we can find the consumer surplus, which is the net benefit/consumer suplus (B(X) – C(X) for the consumption of X1. Here the consumer surplus is the area between the inverse demand curve from 0 to X1, minus the rectangle below, which is the cost of the consumers Application of Consumer surplus: Cost-Benefit Analysis - - for all economic decision we compare costs with benefits This becomes difficult when several consumers are affected by an economic decision In such cases the consumer surplus is an important measure to consider The Consumer Surplus tells us: By how much is the willingness to pay of the consumers (their benefit from consuming the goods) bigger than the price they need to pay (the costs of consuming the goods) considering consumer surplus can help us make political decisions. E.g Should we build a new highway? - A good way for the government to decide whether tax money should be allocated to building this highway is to think about what the consumer surplus of using this highway is. Then we would look at a price of 0 for the consumers and see how much they would benefit from the highway and if it is larger than the costs for the government to build the highway. Consumer surplus before the tax: P = 10 – Q P=2 2 = 10 – Q Q=8 Consumer surplus: ((10 - 2) * 8) / 2 = 32 Consumer surplus after the tax: P = 10 – Q P = 2 * 1.5 = 3 3 = 10 – Q Q=7 consumer surplus: ((10 – 3) * 7) / 2 = 49 / 2 = 24.5 difference: 32 – 24.5 = 7.5 € External Reading: The frontier of Price Optimization Maximize Revenue by setting the price of your product optimally. Steps to go through: 1. Forecast: - Based on historical data from related products the relationship between demand and price is being predicted 2. Learn - The prediction is being applied in practice and updated based on actual performance 3. Optimize - After the learning period the price optimization is rolled out over hundreds of products A) - You can optimize your revenue at a price elasticity of demand of -1 (unit elasticity) - At this point, price elasticity of -1, you maximize your revenue in relation to price Why is –1 price elasticity optimal? - Revenue = P * Q - Price Elasticity of Demand tells us by how much (in percent) the quantity demanded changes when we increase the price by 1% - Inelastic Demand (e = – 0.8), what happens if we increase the price of 1 %? - Revenue = 1.01P * 0.992 Q = 1.002 PQ - The revenue increases when increasing the price, although the demand decreases - Elastic Demand (e = 1.2) increase P by 1% - Revenue = 1.01P * 0.988Q = 0.998 PQ - The revenue decreases when increasing the price as the loss of demand is outweighing the revenue gained from the price increase. We should then decrease the price The point we want to be at is e= -1 as we optimize price here b) Why is price optimization challenging in practise? - Even though we understand the mechanism behind how the quantity demanded reacts to changes in price, in practise, we commonly do not know how price elastic demand for a product is. This type of data is difficult to collect and can often only be approximated c) Think about an example firm that could benefit from such an optimization and explain why - Companies that have a large product portfolio with differentiated products, e.g fashion retailers, consumer electronic stores - These types of suppliers need to set a lot of prices and the demand for every product is likely to be different. Therefore, an automated optimization can offer a big potential to increase revenue Week 6 - Production The Production Function Production: Any activity that creates current or future utility - This can be a car or Daniels micro videos Production Function: The relationship that describes how input (e.g labor, capital, resources, intermediate products) are transformed into output (e.g Cars, Holiday Packages, Game Consoles,..) For example: Q = F (K, L) - Q = Amount of output K = Capital L = Labour How much output do we generate from a certain amount of Capital and Labour As economists we are primarily interested in the mathematical relationship of how much output we can generate from a certain amount of input Short and Long Run Production Short Run: the longest periods of time during which at least one of the inputs used in a production process cannot be varied. (at least not economically feasible) - A firm cannot adjust its production facilities in the short run but the firm can hire more workers in the short run How long is “short run”? That depends on how much time it takes to change all input factors Long run: the shortest period of time required to alter the amounts of all inputs used in a production process. - In the long run there are no fixed input factors Variable input: an input that can be varied in the short run. Fixed input: an input that can not be varied in the short run Short-run Production Function Three commonly observed properties: 1. It passes through the origin - without any input factors we are not able to produce any output 2. Initially the addition of variable inputs augments output at an increasing rate (convex) - Initially when we increase our variable inputs we will increase our output at an increase rate. 3. Beyond some point, additional units of the variable input give rise to smaller and smaller increments in output (concave) - Here we have a short term production function. With output being meals per week We are looking at how the quantity of output changes as we vary the variable input of Labour. K0 indicates that this variable is fixed and cannot be altered in the short run Firstly we see that the slope of the curve increases to the point of Q=4 after which the slope decreases - - In the line to the left we can see that the first unit of labour increases output by 4, the second unit of labour increases output by 10, the 3rd by 13, the 4th by 16 and then after the 4th output decreases in relation to an additional unit of variable input, with the 5th unit of labour producing 15 units of output, 1 less than the 4th one. At this point (L=4) the slope of our curve decreases continuously. - The curve goes through the origin The curve increases until L=4 At the inflection point of L=4 the slope of the curve decreases. Law of diminishing return: if inputs are fixed, the increase in output from an increase in the variable input must eventually decline. Example: Software company - writing software for a client - A programmer can write code for 8h/day. - In order to finish the development phase before the deadline, the company could hire more employees (variable input) - We assume that other input factors (computers, office space) cannot be changed in the short run (fixed input) - Programmers can work in 3 shifts to fully occupy computers (we assume they are indifferent towards the time of day they work) - We can let programmer work in pairs (pair programming) - If we add more programmers to the team they will start to compete for computers and office space (other fixed input factors). Be in each other's way - Furthermore, having more programmers in the team will make coordination and communication increasingly difficult. a) A nuclear power plant. - Variable inputs, would be Labour, possibly uranium and other materials needed - Fixed inputs would be plant/machine capacity. These would be reactors and other machines like the cooling system etc. The maximum capacity of these would not be possible to vary in the short run b) Initially you could increase variable input factors such as labour and material, by working in shifts 24/h per day and producing at maximum capacity at all times. After the point of 24/7 maximum capacity, increasing variable input factors would not lead to an increase in output (energy), as the capacity of the reactors and other machines are being exhausted increasing labour and materials would not lead to an increase in output, the workers would only be in each others way, and all the material would not be used and would have to be stored or thrown away Answer: Short-run Production Function Total Product Curve: a curve showing the amount of output as a function of the amount of variable input (e.g Q as a function of L with K0 (fixed)) Marginal Product: change in total product due to a 1-unit change in the variable input Average product: total output divided by the quantity of the variable input - In this example, we look at how much we on average produce of output Q in relation to the amount of variable input, Labour we have used. Graphical Representation of the short-run Production Function - In the top graph the Y-axis is Q (meals/wk) and on the X-axis we have Labour in person hr/wk - The top graph illustrates the total product curve. At different levels of variable input factor L we can produce different levels of output Q Marginal Product curve - At different levels of L, how much extra output, Q, do we generate when we add an extra unit of Labour (X) - - We do this by calculating the slope of the total product curve at different points In the graph we can see this in MPL, which is calculated 2 times. MPL = 12/1 = 12 & MPL = 16/1 = 16 We can plot these points to create a marginal product curve, where we have the marginal product at different quantities of input. The marginal product curve is shown in the bottom graph The marginal product curve is the first derivative of our total product curve and our production function. Giving us the increase in output at a certain amount of Q if we add an additional unit of labour. Some important point to note in the graphs: - Q=4 is our inflection point – the point from where we move toward diminishing returns. If we add an an additional unit of labour after L=4 our increase in output will be less than the time before - If we move from L=4 -> L=5 we will have a smaller increase in output than when we moved from L=3 -> L=4 - The inflection point is the maximum point of the Marginal Product curve, in the bottom graph. - - At L=8 we are at the maximum of the total product curve, after where the total product starts decreasing. Here we move from a positive slope of the total product curve to a negative one In the Marginal Product Curve this is the point where the Marginal Product Curve intersects with the X-axis After L=8, an additional unit of Labour will decrease the total output. Production Function - Q = F(K, L) gives the total output at point (K0, L) - MPL gives the marginal product at point (K0, L). How much more output can the firm produce when increasing labor with 1 unit point (K0, L) - APL gives the average product of input L at a point (K0, L). How many units of output was the firm able to produce per unit of labour at point (K0, L)? The average productivity. Average Product - - - - - At the top we first have our total product curve and at the bottom we first have the Marginal Product Curve. To draw our Average Product we look at a certain point, in this case L=2, where we have Q=14, where we input 2 units of labour and the output is 14 meals/wk To get the average product we draw a ray from the origin through the specific point. Using rise over run, we calculate 14/2=7. Now we know that on average we can generate 7 units of output from one unit of labour at this specific point. Drawing several rays from the origin that intersect with the total product curve we can generate the Average Product Curve which is depicted by the green curve in the bottom graph At input L=6 and output Q=72, the ray from the origin through this point is at a point of tangency with the total product curve. As we know, the Marginal Product is the slope of the curve at any point of the total product curve, this means that when the ray is tangent to the total product curve, The marginal product and the Average Product are equal. This is as well illustrated in the bottom panel where the curve intersects. At the point of input L=6 the marginal product and average product intersect When the ray of the average product is tangent to the total product curve the marginal product and average product is equal Relationships between Total, Marginal and Average Product Curves - When the marginal product curve lies above the average product curve , the average product curve must be rising - The marginal product gives us the change in output if we add another unit of input (L). If the Marginal product is above the Average product, i.e if the additional output produced from an additional unit of input is more than the average product, then it means that the average product will rise. - EX: if you have gpa of 3 and get a 4 the gpa will increase - When the marginal product curve lies below the average product curve, the average product curve must be falling. The marginal product curve and the average product curve intersect at the maximum value of the Average Product Curve - Exercise: a) MP1 (X5) = 10 MP2 (X5) = 15 If the farmer had an extra unit of fertilizer he should apply it to the second field (red) as the marginal product is higher here. b) at the optimal optimal point MP1 = MP2 (except for corner solution) The optimal point would be Solution: - The general rule for allocating an input efficiently in such cases: Allocate the next unit of the input to the production activity where its marginal product is highest. Production in The Long Run - - - - In the long run, all input is variable - In the long run we are not only able to increase variable input by, for example hiring more workers, but as well increase fixed input by building factories for example A certain amount of output Q0, can oftentimes be reached with different combinations of the input factors. - Ex. produce a car with 4 machines and 10 workers or a car with 1 machine and 30 workers. Isoquant: all combinations of variable inputs that yield a given level of output Here we see a production function of a product with 2 input factors, Capital (K) and labour (L) - The first step to produce isoquants is to fix one/several amounts of output. - In this case we have the amounts of output fixed at Q 16, 32 and 64 Production Function: Q = F(K, L) = 2KL Drawing the isoquant for Q=16: 16 = 2KL K = 16/2L K = 8/L - To draw the isoquant, we input different values of L to see which amount of K wee need to produce Q=16 given that we use the amount of L - For instance, if we use 8 units of Labour, we need 1 unit of capital (K) to produce 16 units of output - To produce the other Isoquants, we fix the Quantities of output that we want to produce and then solve the equation for Capital (K) to as K is depicted on the Y-axis Isoquants Isoquants possess similar properties as indifference curves: - We have a map of isoquants that cannot intersect - They cannot intersect as we have different fixed quantities of output for different isoquants - The slope of the isoquants is the marginal rate of technical substitution: how many units of input factor 2 are needed to compensate for a 1 unit reduction of input factor 1 - In a more generalized notation we use X1 and X2 to describe two input factors that are needed to produce Q The Marginal Rate of Technical substitution Marginal rate of technical substitution (MRTS): the rate at which one input factor can be exchanged for another without altering the total level of output - Depends on current level of inputs as we have this convex curve - It is essentially the slope of the isoquant at a certain capital and labour combination in this case Examples of Production Functions (in the long-run) Q = 4X1 + 2X2 - A production function where the output Q is dependent on 2 input factors X1 and X2. As we are in the long-run, all the input factors are variable How can we draw isoquants for this production function? - We fix Q to certain amounts of output that we are interested in and then we solve the production function for either X1 or X2 dependent on which input factor we want drawn on the y-axis - We solve for the factor we want on the y-axis, this is most often X2 - In this case we decide to solve for X2 Q = 4X1 + 2X2 Q - 4X1 = 2X2 X2 = 0.5Q – 2X1 - Fix Q at a value and draw the curve (20, 60, 80) These input factors are Perfect Substitutes: - MRTS is constant: replace 1 unit of X1 with 2 units of X2 to produce the same Q - We can as well see that in the equation where our slope is – 2 - The isoquants we have drawn here are for 20, 60 and 80 Q Example 2 - This is a Leontief, or Fixed Proportions Production Function Q is equal to the minimum of X1 and 4X2 We fix Q at a value and draw the curve (4, 8, 12), which is shown in the graph below - - - Here we have X2 on the y-axis and X1 on the X-axis In this case we need 4 times as many units of X1 than X2 to produce a quantity of Q - For example for Q=4, X1 = 4 and X2 = 1, for Q=12 we need, X1=12 and X2 = 3 We plugg in the amounts of the input factors and then we look at what the minimum is. If we use 4 units of X1 and 1 unit of X2, then we have the minimum of {4, 4} If we used less units of X1 for example 3 units of X1 and 1 unit of X2, then we would have minimum {3, 4} which means we can only produce 3 output units These type of production functions are for Perfect Complements, where we need to use our input factors in a certain constant ratio, in this case 4:1, 4 times as much of X1 than X2 Example 3: Q = 3X1X2 - Cobb-Douglas-Production Function - Again, to be able to create a graphical representation we need to solve the equation for X2: X2 = Q / (3X1) Fix Q at a value and draw the curve (in this example 15): X2 = 15 / (3X1) X2 = 5 / X1 In the picture, Isoquants are plotted for Q = (3, 15 , & 30) - Moving northeast on the Isoquant map, the Quantity of output increases Returns to Scale Returns to scale is an inherently long-run concept - we multiply (increase) all input factors with the same number - EX. if we have a production function that is contingent on the input of labour and capital. To see how our returns to scale look like we would multiply these factors with the same fixed factor for instance 3, and then we would see what happens to our output Increasing returns to scale describe the property of a production process whereby a proportional increase in every input yields a more than proportional increase in output. - ex. multiplying all input factors with 3 resulting in an increase of output of 4x Constant returns to scale describes the property of a production process whereby a proportional increase in every input factors yields an equal proportional increase in output - Increasing input factors with a factor of 3 yields an increase in output of 3*output Decreasing returns to scale describes the property of a production process whereby a proportional increase in every input yields a less than proportional increase in output - Increasing input 3X and output increases with 2X Returns to scale Mathematically What happens when you multiply F(X1, X2) with a constant c and c needs to be larger than 1 (c>1) - Increasing returns: F(cX1, cX2) > cF(X1, X2) Constant returns: F(cX1, cX2) = cF(X1, X2) Decreasing returns: F(cX1, cX2) < cF(X1, X2) Examples: a) Q = 5X1 + 3X2 5cX1 + 3cX2 = c(5X1 + 3X2) = cQ - we multiply both our input factors with c which we then can pull out resulting in c(5X1 + 3X2). We can see that we have the initial production function multiplied by c, which is ofcourse equal to c multiplied with Q. - We have constant returns to scale b) Q = X1 * 5X2 cX1 * 5cX2 = c^2(X1 * 5X2) > cQ - Here we have increasing returns to scale, because we have c squared multiplied with the production function which is larger than c multiplied by the quantity of output Exercise: a) Q = 4X1 + X2 - 4*cX1 + cX2 = c(4X1 + X2) = cQ constant returns to scale b) Q = 3X1*X2 c 3*cX1*cX2 = c^2(3X1 * X2) > cQ - Increasing returns to scale c) Q = 3X^0.3 * X2^0.7 3*cX^0.3 * cX2^0.7 = c^2(3X1^0.3 * X2^0.7) > cQ d) Q = Solution: a) b) - c) - d) - Distinction between Diminishing Returns and Decreasing Returns to Scale - Decreasing returns to scale - describes the situation when all inputs are multiplied by a given factor and the output grows by a smaller factor. - Ex. Car production where we need machines and workers. If we increase both input factors by 3X and the output only increase by 2X, we have decreasing returns to scale - Law of Diminishing Returns - refers to the case in which one input varies while all others are held constant. The increase in output from an increase in the variable input must eventually decline. - ex Car. If we increase workers while holding machines constant, there will come a point where the output decreases as the workers will be in each other's way and be hard to organize. - why do decreasing returns to scale exist if we can just increase our input (K and L) and replicate our production? Q = F(K, L) ---> Unmeasured input factor e.g Organization and Communication do not scale well beyond a certain size of a firm. Because after some point of increasing the size of the organization it becomes very hard to coordinate and communicate leading to decreasing returns to scale External Reading: The End of Scale - - - Traditionally, economies of scale, for which firms divide their fixed costs such as factories and machinery over a large number of output units, have offered large corporations a competitive advantage. Economies of scale: Average costs decrease with increase in output Increasing returns to scale: Output grows over-proportionally to increase in input economies of scale focus on cost while increasing returns to scale focus on output Platform based business models have challenged this advantage, by focusing on niche markets and being more flexible in their production - e.g Dollar Shave Club delivers shaving gear without distribution to retailers and not owning production, UBER does not own any cars Three ways to unscale large companies: 1. Become a platform: Rent out your capabilities, allow 3rd parties to make use of these capabilities 2. Install an absolute product focus: Focus on making the best product that fits a consumer’s preferences and outsource non-core activities 3. Grow through dynamic product bundling: Understand the consumer and offer the product she wants a) By only providing a platform, 3rd parties can utilize the platform to sell or do business. This means that the platform only needs to provide the forum / platform and not own any production resources. This means that input factors like factories either are rented or provided by the 3rd party seller making them easily scalable and a variable input factor. Answers: a) Platform-based business models reduce the amount of capital (K) that is used in the production by renting capital intensive assets b) AirBnB uses consumers apartments, Netflix is renting online storage from Amazon instead of having own server farms c) Examples: - Hotel Industry, Input: Service staff, hotel facilities. while Marriot need to build new hotels to increase its production, AirBnB can more flexibly list/unlist apartments of consumers - Entertainment Industry, Input: Infrastructure, content, management. Netflix does not need to build its own data centers but can simply rent data centers from Amazon AWS and scale its service up and down on demand Week 7: Costs Costs in the Short Run Fixed Cost (FC): cost that does not vary with level of output in the short run (the cost of all fixed factors of production). FC = rK0 (K0 is capital at a fixed level of units, r is the rental price per unit) Variable cost (VC): Cost that varies with the level of output in the short run (the cost of all variable factors of production) Total cost (TC): all costs of production: the sum of variable cost and fixed cost. Visualizing Cost Functions In this case we start by looking at our production function Q = F(K0, L) - The production function tells us how many units of output we can produce when we vary the variable input factor of labour At L=4 is our inflection point, where the marginal output starts decreasing. From here we have diminishing returns to Labour - - The first type of cost listed in the figure is fixed cost. Fixed cost to the fixed input factor, in this case Capital. The fixed cost does not vary in the short run, i.e it does not vary with different values of output or variable input factors. The second cost Variable Cost varies, varies with the amount of Labour that we use. The last cost, Total Cost is the sum of the Fixed COst and Variable Cost at different values of L (or Q) Visualizing the Costs - - - As the Fixed Cost is constant in the short run it is a horizontal line at the value of the fixed cost (nr of units * rental value). In this case it is constant at 30. and not dependent of output, Q, in the short run Variable Cost Curve - The variable cost goes through the origin, if we do not produce anything we don't have any variable cost as it is dependent on L - The second point is the inflection point, up until this point the slope of our variable cost curve is decreasing, the marginal cost is decreasing. - Up until this point we have increasing returns of labour to our output. After the inflection point the slope of the Variable Cost curve increases, meaning our marginal cost is increasing. After the inflection point we have decreasing returns on variable input factors to our output, and have to use more labour to produce additional units of our output Total Cost Curve - To arrive at the total cost curve we add the variable and fixed cost curves which result in a parallel shift of the variable cost curve of 30 units, i.e our fixed cost. Our Total cost curve then starts where the fixed cost curve intersects with the y-axis, in this case at 30 Average & Marginal Costs in the Short Run Average fixed Cost (AFC): fixed cost divided by the quantity of output Average Variable Cost (AVC): variable cost divided by the quantity of output: Average Total Cost (ATC): total cost divided by the quantity of output: Marginal Cost: the change in total cost that results from a 1-unit change in output: - the marginal cost in the short run is the same for both the total cost and the variable cost because the fixed cost does not change. (it is the same in the long run as well because here all input factors are variable. The Marginal, Average Total, Average Variable, and Average Fixed Cost Curves - In the top graph we have the Variable Cost, the Fixed Cost which is constant and added together we get the Total Cost - On the X-axis we have the Quantity of Output and on the y-axis we have the cost in Euros/hour Average Fixed Cost: - The average fixed cost is shown by the light blue slope in the bottom graph which is downward sloping. This is because it is constant and thereby decreases as the Quantity decreases, it moves towards 0 as we produce more units of output because it will be spread out on more units of output. Average Total Cost: - Geometrically we derive the total cost curve by drawing rays that start from the origin and intersect with the Total Cost Curve. The slope of the ray will then give us the Average Total Cost at different values of Q. - Geometrically, average total cost (ATC) / average variable cost (AVC) at any level of output Q may be interpreted as the slope of a ray to the total / variable cost curve at Q. Which is the same as the cost divided by the quantity. Marginal Cost Curve: - The yellow curve in the bottom graph is the marginal cost curve. The marginal cost curve is the derivative of the total cost curve. I.e the slope of the total cost curve at any point of Q. - This is why we have the minimum value of Marginal Cost at Q1. If we look at the total cost curve at Q1 we see that this is the inflection point. Up until this point our cost per unit is decreasing and after the inflection point it is increasing - The next interesting point is where the Marginal Cost and Average Total Cost intersect at level Q3. - Why do these curves intersect here? Another way to express what the marginal cost curve is telling us is by looking into the tangent rays to our total cost. We see that the slope of the ray which is tangent to our total cost at Q3 is equal to the slope of the total cost curve as it is tangent. We therefore know that the Marginal Cost curve and Average Cost curve at this point Q3 must be equal and therefore intersect. Average Variable Cost Curve: - The average variable cost curve is the navy blue curve in the bottom figure. - Geometrically deriving the Average variable cost curve is done the same way as the Average Total Cost Curve, drawing a ray from the origin that intersects at different points of the Variable Cost Curve. This Slope of the ray is then the Average Variable Cost at that value of Q - The Average Variable Cost curve and the Average Total Cost curve are moving closer together as we increase Q. This is because the the difference is the Average Fixed Cost which is slowly converging towards 0, decreasing with higher values of Q - Another important thing to notice is that we have different units on the two y-axis. - In the top graph we have €/hr on the y-axis - In the bottom graph we have €/unit of output on the y-axis - This is the case because we either divide our top curves with Q or take the derivative of them Exercise 1. Fixed Cost (FC): - 5 2. Average Fixed Cost (AVC): - 5/Q 3. Variable Costs (VC): - VC = 3Q^2 + Q 4. Average Variable Cost (AVC): - VC/Q = (3Q^2 + Q) / Q - AVC = 3Q + 1 5. Average Total Cost: - TC/Q = (3Q^2 + Q + 5) / Q - ATC = AVC + AFC = 3Q + 1 + 5/Q 6. Marginal Cost: - dVC = 6Q + 1 - MC = 6Q + 1 Answer: Marginal Cost - Marginal Cost is the same as the cost of expanding output by 1 unit at a certain level of Q (or the savings from contracting) It is by far the most important of the seven cost curves as it allows the firm to decide whether to expand or contract production to minimize costs Geometrically, at any level of output, marginal cost may be interpreted as the slope of the total cost curve at that level of output. - This is why it can be derived by taking the derivative of the total cost curve. - Since the total cost and variable cost curves are parallel, marginal cost is also equal to the slope of the variable cost curve Marginal and Average Cost - When marginal cost is less than average cost (either ATC or AVC), the average cost must be decreasing with output. - We can see this in the blue area for values below Q3 (for AVC it is for values below Q2). Here the slopes of the Average cost curves turn upwards sloping - Ex: if my average grade is 4 and I get a 3 it will decrease - When marginal Cost is greater than average cost, average cost must be increasing with output. - This is shown by the green area, where the Marginal cost has exceeded the ATC and so now the ATC starts increasing with higher values of Q - Here an additional unit costs more than the average cost of a unit. The Marginal Cost Curve Intersects with both the ATC and AVC curves at their minimum Cost Minimization Algebraically We look at the case of a production function with 2 inputs (X1, X2). The price of input 1 is P1 the price of input 2 is P2. We assume that the predefined amount of output Q0 should be produced at minimum cost. The cost minimization problem that we are facing can be described by minimizing the cost equation: - - this expression represents our cost. How can we minimize the amount of our input factors to be able to produce the quantity Q0 at the lowest possible cost. The prices P1 and P2 are not given so we cant change these, what we are interested in is to find the best combination of our input factors X1 and X2 What we want to minimize is C, the cost of our function 1. The Cost minimization problem is to some extent similar to the utility maximization of consumers - For consumers the budget constraint is given, and we look for the highest reachable indifference curve - For cost minimization the isoquant is given, and we look for the lowest possible isocost line. 2. If the slope of the isocost line is always larger (or smaller) than the slope of the isoquant, we can have a corner solution (only one input is used) 3. If both inputs are used (interior solution) the lowest reachable isocost line is tangent to the isoquant 4. At minimal costs: - The price ratio is equal to the Marginal Ratio Of Technical substitution That means that the absolute value of the MRTS must be equal to the ratio of the input prices. Why? Assume p1/P2 = 2 and MRTS = 1 - if the firm uses 1 less of input 1 it can buy 2 units of input 2 - As the absolute value of the MRTS is 1, it only needs 1 unit of input 2 to replace the missing unit of input 1. The costs for the second unit of input 2 can be saved - This means the firm had not minimized its costs at this point Exercise: Cost Minimization Pay attention to the type of input factors used in the production: - Perfect Substitutes - Input factors are substitutable and the firm only uses one input that allows for cheaper production - In these case we will have a corner solution - Perfect Complements - Input factors need to be used in a predefined combination: any other combination will lead to a waste of one input The relationship between marginal products and marginal rate of technical substitution: In the cost minimum: Therefore we can also find the cost minimum with the condition: We can cross-multiply this equation: The extra output we get from the last euro spent on an input must be the same for all inputs in this optimal point when we minimize cost Output Expansion Path The Relationship Between Optimal Input Choice and Long-Run Costs Output Expansion Path: The Locus of tangencies (minimum cost input combinations) traced out by an isocost line of a given slope as it shifts outwards into the isoquant map for a production process - - - Essentially, we look into the case where we have fixed prices for our input factors and we increase our output, which we see in the isoquants (the higher the isoquants the higher the output) Then we trace the optimal cost minimizing combinations of our input factors and we get to this output expansion path which is denoted by EE in this case. We always find the optimal combinations of input factors that minimizes cost by looking at these points where the isocost line is tangent to our respective isoquant. - - - - We can use this information to construct our Long-Run Total Cost Curve. Essentially we plot the relevant quantity–cost pairs from the output expansion path to get to LTC (long run total cost curve) In the Long-Run, there is no need to distinguish between total, fixed and variable costs, since all costs are variable. - We can now change all of our input factors which means that if we are not producing anything we will not have any costs because we simply don't use any of our input factors Again the long run marginal cost curve (LMC) intersects with the long run average cost curve (LAC) at its minimum. The LMC is the first derivative of our LTC The Long Run Total Cost goes through the origin, as all inputs can be liquidated in the long run External Reading: Winning the Race With Ever-Smarter Machines - Computers become better and cheaper at tasks that were previously conducted by humans and previously not thought to be able to be conducted by computers - Self-Driving Cars - Chatbots to service customers - Vacuum Robots - Still, humans can offer their creativity and emotional understanding and coordinate machines - This in many cases result in better results than solely solving the task with computers or solving it by humans Win the race WITH machines not against them - We have introduced the concept of production functions, for which the output is a function of input factors. Let's assume capital K encompasses investments in technology/computers and L represents labour We have also introduced the isocost line: Where Pk and PL are the prices for capital and labour respectively a) Production Function - Production is becoming relatively more capital and less labor intensive (we assume investments in technology are captured by K). Relatively more capital in relation to labor - The functional form of the production function is changing - With less capital and labor, we can produce the same output, increase in productivity - Computers start to take over tasks that needed to be conducted by humans previously. b) Isocost line: - - PK is decreasing as technological development makes capital intensive assets cheaper (e.g compare the costs for the same computer 4 years ago and today, its cheaper) PL is increasing. Firms need to hire less employees (L decreases) but better educated ones that are higher paid, w increases The same products can now be produced at a lower cost: - Decrease in PK - Increase in K (in the long run we might probably see a decrease as computers become more powerful) - Increase in PL - Decrease in L –>If the costs for production would not decrease, firms would not adopt new technology as firms maximize their profit by minimizing costs –> If the cost of production is lower, the profits available at a given price will increase, and producers will produce more –> With more produced at every price, the supply curve will shift to the right meaning an increase in supply and a decrease in prices Derivatives Rules The Basic Rules For Derivatives The Power Rule The Product Rule The Quotient Rule The Chain Rule Week 8 - Perfect Competition Week 7 Recap Week 8 Objectives Perfect Competition Definitions and Conditions Main Assumption: Profit Maximization Economists assume that the goal of firms is to maximize economic profit - Economic Profit: the difference between total revenue and total cost where total cost includes all costs – both explicit and implicit – associated with resources used by the firm. - Opportunity cost is included - Accounting Profit: Is simply total revenue less all explicit costs incurred. - Does not subtract implicit cost, no opportunity cost The 4 Conditions for Perfect Competition 1. Firms sell a Standardized Product - The product sold by one firm is assumed to be a perfect substitute for the product sold by any other competitor, products are homogenous. - This condition is rarely observed, however if we define the market narrowly enough we can define products as perfect substitutes. - EX: different sellers of crude oil. 2. Firms Are Price Takers - The individual firm treats the market price of the product as given. - Here we assume that firms/producers in the market can not influence the price which the product is sold - Later on regarding monopoly we will see that there are market constellations where firms can influence the price at which products are traded 3. Free Entry and Exit - Perfectly mobile factors of production in the long run that allow market access. - Every firm that wants to enter the market can do so in the long run as all input factors are available in the long run 4. Firms and Consumers Have Perfect Information - Both firms and consumers have full information that allows them to maximize their profit or net utility respectively. - For firms: maximization of profit, for consumers: maximization of net utility - Perfect information means that actors have the necessary information to make the best decisions in the market. - It can be knowing the price of input factors or for consumers, the prices of products. - The information access has increased with the internet as there are tools like price comparison web sites as well as easier information accessible to firms regarding global suppliers Exercise: The 4 conditions for perfect competition 1. For basically any product, except for some unprocessed goods, there will be differences in the features such as price quality etc, which make product not perfectly substitutable. 2. Through marketing and positioning, firms try and set the price and create a demand. 3. Many input factors such as knowledge and relations may not always be possible to acquire from scratch 4. For some products it is not possible to know the utility of the product before purchase, further there will almost always be asymmetries in information Answers: - For experience goods it is close to impossible to know how much the product will be worth to us before consumption Profit Maximization in the Short Run - To maximize economic profit, the firm will choose that level of output for which the difference between total revenue and total cost is largest - In the top panel, on the y-axis is total revenue and total cost in euros/wk. On the x-axis is Quantity produced The firm is interested in maximizing the distance between the total revenue curve and the total cost curve. The total revenue is derived multiplying the fixed price of the good by the quantity it sells, in this case the price is €18 and so the TR = 18Q Because the firm cannot influence the price, they are price takers, they have a fixed price which they sell their goods at. This is why the total revenue curve is linear. - - - Looking at the total cost curve we see the commonly occurring shape where there is first increasing returns of output to its variable input, the slope of the TC-curve is decreasing, and then decreasing returns to input when the slope is increasing and the firms need more variable input to produce a quantity of output. The slope of the curve is first concave and then convex The TC-curve intersects with the y-axis at 30, indicating that we are in the short run, as there is a fixed cost of 30 - - The total cost curve intersects with the total revenue at Q = 4,7 & 8.7. At these points the firm make no economic profit, an economic profit of 0. This is because the revenue is the same as the Total cost. At Q=7.4 the distance between TC and TR is the largest, which amounts to 12.6 € per week The Short-run Condition For Profit Maximization To maximize profits, the firm should produce a level of output for which marginal revenue is equal to marginal cost on the rising portion of the MC curve. - Marginal Revenue is the change in total revenue that occurs as a result of a 1-unit change in sales. - Looking at the graphical representation we see that the Marginal Revenue is simply a horizontal line at P0=18. For every additional unit we sell of the good, we will earn an additional 18€ of revenue. The point Q=7.4 is where the Marginal Cost curve intersect with the marginal revenue curve, which is the profit maximizing quantity of production. This is dependent on the fact that the Marginal Revenue Curve lies above the minimum value of the Average Variable Costs Curve - - Provided that marginal revenue is larger than the minimum value of the average variable cost, the firm should produce a level of output for which marginal revenue equals marginal cost on the rising portion of the marginal cost curve - Why should we only produce if we are at a price level above Average Variable Cost? That is because if we produce at a level below average variable cost it would make more sense to shut down our production. - - Now assume that the market price is €18, why should we produce Q=7.4 and not Q1 where the price of the good is higher than our marginal cost? If we produced a good at Q1 we could produce it at a price that is lower than what we can sell it for on the market, so that means we still can generate an economic profit. At Q2 the marginal cost is larger than the price the good can be sold for, leading to an economic loss. The Shutdown Condition Shutdown condition: if the price P0 lies below the minimum of average variable cost, the firm should shut down in the short run. the short-run supply curve of the perfectly competitive firm is the rising portion of the short-run marginal cost curve that lies above the minimum value of the average variable cost curve - On the y-axis we have euros/unit of output, on the x-axis we have Quantity produced, the output Here we have no given price, but ask the question: at what price should the firm start producing output? The firm should produce output from the point where the marginal cost exceeds the average variable cost. As we see in the graph, this may be a point where the Marginal Cost lies below the Average Total Cost, for example, at a price of 14 the firm should produce despite the price being below the ATC meaning that they would produce at a loss, as the revenue cant cover the cost of all the inputs required for producing at that output. - - - - - This is the case because, at a price above AVC, the firm can cover some of the cost of the Fixed Cost, which cannot be recovered by shutting down in the short run. The distance between the Average Variable Cost and the Average Total Cost is the Average Fixed Cost. This is why the ATC and the AVC curves move closer with output. If the price lies between the AVC and the ATC it still makes sense for the firm to produce, because the firm is able to cover all of its Variable Cost, and as well it can cover some of the fixed cost, which can not be recovered in the short run by shutting down If the firm would choose not to produce when the price lies between the ATC and the AVC they would have a larger economic loss than if they chose to produce as the revenue would cover some of the fixed cost. The generates economic profit at price levels which lie above the average total cost curve. The Short-run Competitive Industry/market Supply - - - Again, the short run supply curve of the perfectly competitive firm, is the rising portion of the the Marginal Cost Curve that lies above the minimum value of the Average Variable Cost curve (AVC) To derive the industry supply curve we use horizontal summation. To use horizontal summation we need to solve the supply curves for Q and then add the amounts that the firms are willing to supply at the different price levels. In the example below we can see that from a price level of 2, firm 1 is willing to supply the good, at P=2 firm 2 is not willing to supply the product. - - Looking at the Industry Supply curve we can see that from P=2 to P=3 the industry supply curve consists only of firm 1 From P=3, Firm 2 is as well willing to supply the product and from this point we need to add up the quantities that the 2 firms are willing to supply at P=3, Firm 1 is willing to supply 3 units, Firm 2 is willing to supply 4 units, adding these amounts up we get Q=7 which is shown in the Industry Supply Curve At P=7, Firm 1 is willing to supply 7 units, Firm 2 is willing to supply 8 units resulting in an industry supply of 15 Quantities (the horizontal sum) The Short-Run Competitive Industry Supply - - - On the left hand side is a figure representing the market and on the right a focal individual firm is represented, with MC, ATC and AVC In perfect competition we know that the price of a product is determined in the market, it is determined where the Demand Curve and Supply Curve Intersects. In the figure we can see that the equilibrium price is P*=20, producing a q of Q*. In a market of perfect competition we know that the individual firm is a price taker, meaning that the price is determined on the market and the individual firm needs to figure out how much it should produce at this given price. Knowing the Price, we can derive the Marginal Revenue Curve, a horizontal curve at P=20 in this case. - Further, we know that the firm should produce the quantity where the Marginal Cost curve intersects with the Price curve (Marginal Revenue Curve), contingent on the point of intersecting being at a price larger than the Average Variable Cost Curve at this point. - Given that we have this information we can calculate how much economic profit the firm generates at this point - - - We know that the intersection of P (MR) and MC will be at Q=80. And we have our ATC curve as well, leading us to be able to determine that our economic profit will be 8 * 80 (Q) = 640€. We can calculate this as we see that the ATC curve is at a point of P=12 at Q=80 leading to costs equaling to 80*12 = 960 (red square). Our revenue is equal to price multiplied by quantity leading to 20*80 = 1600 Total Revenue – Total Cost = 1600 – 960 = 640€ The individual firm's demand curve is a horizontal line at P=20 - The firm cannot affect the market price, it is a price taker in this situation of perfect competition Short-Run Price and Output Determination under Pure Competition - Even though the market demand curve is downwards sloping, the demand curve facing the individual firm is perfectly elastic. - Breakeven Point: the point at which price equal to the minimum of average total cost. - The lowest point at which the firm will not suffer negative profits in the short run - The firm should produce if the price is higher than the minimum of the average variable cost (AVC) In the picture above the price determined is €10 per unit of output which leads to a situation where the price intersects with the marginal cost at a point which is higher than the AVC but lower than the ATC, resulting in the firm taking an economic loss. Nonetheless the firm should still supply the product as its loss is smaller than TFC, meaning if the firm did not produce the loss incurred would have been larger than the loss incurred if they produced at P=10 - - Exercise Solution: - Short run profit maximization at P = MC, given that P>min AVC. Otherwise the firm should shut down - With P = 12 MC = MR 2Q = 12 Q=6 - P=12 > min AVC = 0 - We can express profits: π = P*Q – AVC*Q – FC With fixed costs factored out as: π = (P–AVC)Q – FC - since the average variable cost is AVC = Q = 6, the firm would earn profits of: π = (12 – 6)6 – FC = 36 – FC Thus with fixed costs FC = 36, the firm would earn zero profits The Efficiency of Short-Run Competitive Equilibrium - There are 2 types of efficiencies Allocative efficiency: all possible gains from exchange are realized Pareto efficient: It is only possible to make one person better of at the expense of another. - - There is no possibility for a private exchange at a price other than €10 Consumer would be happy to pay less than €10 for an additional unit of output but producers need to pay MC = €10 for the next unit and are not interested in such a transaction Firms are happy to produce another unit for a price higher than €10, but there are no consumers left that are willing to pay more than €10 (with 100 000 units on the market). All of the consumers that have a willingness to pay at P=10 have already purchased the good, and the consumers not willing to pay of course will not pay a higher price larger than 10 euros Producer Surplus - Now that we have derived both the individual firm's supply curve as well as the industry/market supply curve we can look at Welfare Measures We have gone through consumer surplus in previous lectures and will now look into Producer Surplus Producer Surplus - - - - A competitive market is efficient when it maximizes the net benefits to its participants Producer Surplus: The euro amount by which a firm benefits by producing a profit-maximizing level of output. We can visualize the producer surplus in two ways. On the left hand side, we see that the market price is given at P* and that MC intersects with P* at Q*i. To establish the producer surplus in this case we look at the AVC at the equilibrium quantity of Q*I and multiply is by Qi*, then we look at the market price and multiply it by Q*i. And lastly subtract AVC from the price * Q*i to get: Producer Surplus = (AVC * Q*i) – (P* * Q*i) Another way to depict the producer surplus is shown to the right. We know that variable cost at any level of output is equal to the area under the Marginal Cost Curve because we can simply add up the marginal cost for every next unit to get the total sum of our Variable Cost. We therefore subtract the variable cost from the revenue that is achieved, and this gives us the producer surplus as well. - Producer surplus is the sum of economic profit and fixed cost Producer surplus is the same as economic profit in the long-run as all costs are variable - If we look into the market perspective, we have depicted here the industry demand curve and the industry supply curve, which is the sum of the marginal cost curves (above the lowest point of AVC). The curves intersect, giving us the equilibrium price and Quantity. - - - - We have established how to derive the consumer surplus in a market called aggregate consumer surplus very similarly we can derive the aggregate producer surplus The supply curve tells us, of all the suppliers in the market, for the next unit that is supplied how much would they at least need to be payed to be willing to supply this good. As long as the price is higher/equal to the necessary compensation needed for firms to supply the good they will. Therefore the distance between the marginal cost of the next unit and the price that can be achieved is the producer surplus in an aggregate form. We can also then define the total welfare which is equal to consumer surplus + producer surplus Total Welfare = Consumer Surplus + Producer Surplus Terminologies: Total Welfare = Economic Surplus = Total Surplus - These terms are used interchangeably Exercise: Equilibrium price and quantity: Pd = 30 – 0.001Q Ps = 10 + 0.001Q 30 – 0.001Q* = 10 + 0.001Q* 20 = 0.002Q* Q* = 10 000 P* = 30 – (0.001 * 10 000) P* = 20 Consumer surplus: ((Pd0 – P*) * Q*) / 2 = ((30 – 20)* 10 000) / 2 CS = 50 000 Producer Surplus: ((P* – Ps0) * Q) / 2 = ((20 – 10) * 10 000) / 2 PS = 50 000 total welfare = Aggregate Consumer Surplus + Aggregate Producer surplus Total Welfare = 50 000 + 50 00 Total Welfare = 100 000 Answer: Consumers have a demand curve of: P = 30 – 0.001Q Producers have a supply curve of: P = 10 + 0.001Q Steps: 1. Find the equilibrium price and quantity by finding where demand and supply intersect, set demand and supply equal: 2. - Calculate the welfare measures: Consumer Surplus = ½ * 10 000 * (30-20) = 50 000 Producer Surplus = ½ * 10 000 * (30-20) = 50 000 Total Welfare = Consumer Surplus + Producer Surplus = 100 000 Adjustments in the Long Run Profit Maximization in the Long Run - The firm’s objective in the long-run is the same as in the short run_ to earn the highest economic profit it can. - There are two things firms can do in the long-run that they cannot do in the short run: 1. Change fixed inputs which will change the short-run marginal costs and therefore the short-run supply curve 2. Leave the industry or decide to enter a new industry which will change the industry supply curve - This means we are facing a different situation than in the short run. Adjustments in the Long-run - Positive economic profit creates an incentive for outsiders to enter the industry - As additional firms enter the industry, the industry supply curve shifts to the right - This adjustment will continue until these two conditions are met: 1. Price reaches the minimum point on the LAC curve. 2. All firms have moved to the capital stock size that gives rise to a short run average total cost curve that is tangent to the LAC curve at its minimum point - - On the left side of the figure below is our market demand and supply curve, intersecting at P= 10 On the right side we see the situation of the individual firm. Because we are looking at a situation of perfect competition, the firm is a price taker facing a horizontal demand curve. The firm can only adjust its output to the price it is facing in the market The individual firm is producing its profit maximizing amount of Q = 200, where the horizontal demand of P=10 intersects with the SMC1 This price exceed the ATC at Q=200, meaning the firms earn an economic profit (π = 600) - ATC at Q = 200: 7 * 200 = 1400 - TR = P* * 200 = 10 * 200 = 2000 - π = 2000 – 1400 = 600 - As there is potential to generate economic profit in this market, other firms are attracted to enter the market which we will now look at - We can see that when other firms enter the market we have a rightward shift of the market supply curve. The new market supply curve results in a decrease in the equilibrium price from P* = 10 to P*1 = 8.50 The firm is still a price taker in the market of perfect competition meaning at the lower price of P*1 = 8.50 we will intersect the short run marginal cost curve at a different position. The decrease in the equilibrium price leads to an adjustment of the output level for the existing firm as the new price intersects with the SMC1 at a different level of Q. As we can see it will produce a quantity of Q = 190 - - - - Still, this price exceeds the ATC1 at Q=190, leading the existing firm to earn an economic profit of π=304 (which is depicted by the gold area) and keeping the market attractive for entrants (as they are earning an economic profit). This is the first adjustment taking place as we see the supply curve shifting to the left but as we are in the long run there is another adjustment happening. - - - - - At lower output level the existing firm is interested in reducing its quantity of fixed inputs (this is possible in the long-run, because fixed inputs become variable in the long run) The adjustment lead to a shift in ATC and SMC. The existing firm contracts its output but can earn more profit (π = 378) by adjusting its capital stock. The market remains attractive for entrants The contracting of the capital stock leads to a slight shift of the market supply, with the right shift from entering firms dominates the left shift originating in the adjustment of fixed inputs - Despite the contraction of output from the firms that have been in the market, the right shift is dominating the left shift resulting in a neto right shift This adjustment continues until firms in the market do not earn economic profit anymore: - Price has reached the minimum on the LAC curve - Firms have adjusted their fixed input factors leading to an ATC curve tangent to the LAC curve at its minimum Now there is no incentive for new firms to enter the market anymore The Invisible Hand Why are competitive markets attractive from the perspective of society as a whole? - Price equal to Marginal Cost - The last unit of output consumed is worth exactly the same to the buyer as the resources required to produce it. - Price is equal to the minimum point on the long-run average cost curve. - There is no less costly way of producing the product. - When firms have adjusted their capital stock there is no less costly way of producing the focal good - All producers earn only a normal rate of profit - The public pays not a cent more than what it costs the firms to serve them External Reading: How Competition is Driving AI’s Rapid Adoption - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a major driver of economic growth - AI adoption (the share of firms that use AI) and absorption (the degree to which firms can extract value from AI) could be more rapid than adoption of previous technologies: 1. Breadth of ways in which AI can be used - can be used in a lot of different ways 2. Promising large returns for ‘front runners’ - companies that adopt the technology early on can collect larger returns than followers - Nonetheless, it takes time until investment in AI yields benefits Exercise: a) Firms can reduce costs with the help of AI by making the production more efficient and earn short-run economic profits. The different cost structure also influences the firm’s marginal cost curve, making it cheaper to produce additional output units. Taking the price as given this will mean that the firm will increase its output in the short run (MC = P). As revenue is a function of the quantity and price (which the firm cannot influence in perfect competition) the short run revenue will also increase as a consequence of the increase in produced quantity. In the long run, other firms will adjust their production (adopt AI) or other firms will enter the market driving the economic profit to 0. Given that we have perfect information, all firms will be able to implement AI and copy their competitors b) If AI is reducing the costs in a market, new companies can suddenly become able to enter the market. This is especially the case if these companies have capabilities in AI that existing firms in the market do not have c) (self-driving) cars are an example. While the car industry was for a long time dominated by large car manufacturers, we now see Technology companies such as google and Tesla entering the market. This is driven by both advanced capabilities in how these firms can use technology (e.g AI) but also the fact that the market for self-driving cars is different from the market for traditional cars Monopoly What is a Monopoly? Monopoly: a market structure in which a single seller of a product with no close substitutes serves the market. - A monopolist has significant control over the price it charges - In contrast, a competitive firm is a price taker and therefore can only control the amount it produces. 5 Sources of Monopoly 1. Exclusive control over Important Inputs - Exclusive control over a crucial input factor will keep other firms from entering the market. Leading to a tendency of monopoly 2. Economies of Scale - When the long-run average cost curve is downward sloping, the least costly way to serve the market is to concentrate production to one firm (natural monopoly) - The most efficient way is to be served by 1 firm as the costs here are the smallest 3. Patents - Typically confers the right to exclusive benefit from all exchanges involving the invention to which the patent applies - Also an incentive for firms to innovate 4. Network Economies - On the demand side, a product becomes more valuable as greater numbers of consumers use it - A typical example is social media, the more people using a platform the more valuable the platform becomes as it means the consumer can interact with more friends. 5. Government Licenses or Franchises - A typical example is public transport, where firms only license out the market to one firm, excluding all other firms The Profit-Maximizing Monopolist The monopolist's goal is to maximize economic profit - In the short run this means choosing the level of output for which the difference between total revenue and short-run total cost is the greatest Importantly, the monopolist is not a price taker! - The monopolist’s output quantity determines the price on the downward sloping demand curve. - Contingent on how much output the monopolist chooses to produce, this will determine how much quantity is available on the market because the monopolist is the only supplier on the market, and therefore this will automatically determine the price of which the product is being traded on the market - Therefore, the monopolist’s total revenue TR is not a linear function of Q with fixed P but varies with both Q and P. - For a perfectly competitive firm P does not vary but is always at P* and the firms act as price takers Revenue for Monopolist As price falls, total revenue for the monopolist does not rise linearly with output. - Instead, it reaches a maximum value at the quantity corresponding to the midpoint of the demand curve, after which revenue begins to fall - Total revenue reaches its maximum value when the price elasticity of demand is unity (1). Demand, Total Revenue and Elasticity - We know that the total revenue is the highest at unit elasticity -1, to the left of unit elasticity we have higher price elasticity of demand meaning a decrease in price is beneficial, to the right of unit elasticity we have lower elasticity than unit elasticity meaning an increase in the price results in higher revenue. - As the monopolist is the only actor serving the market, the total expenditure represents the monopolist's total revenue in the market The revenue is highest at unit elasticity, -1, which is at Q=200, at the mid point of the demand curve Total Cost, Revenue and Profit Curves for a Monopolist - Maximum profit is achieved when Total Revenue and Total Cost are parallel (have the same slope/derivative) Optimality Condition: Marginal Revenue (MR) = Marginal Cost (MC) - - - The revenue generated from the next unit of output is equal to the cost of producing it. In the top panel we can see that if we would move further to the right than Q=175, we would increase marginal cost, but we have a decrease in marginal revenue. We would move to a point where it would cost more to produce an additional unit than we would get in marginal revenue To the left the marginal cost is lower than the marginal revenue meaning it is preferable to increase the quantity as the marginal revenue is larger than the marginal cost Only at the point of Q=175 where the marginal revenue is equal to marginal cost can we maximize revenue The profit Maximizing Monopolist optimality condition for a monopolist: A monopolist maximizes profit by choosing the level of output Q where the marginal revenue equals marginal cost. - Marginal revenue can also be expressed as the first derivative of total revenue: - Provided that marginal revenue intersects marginal cost from above. Marginal revenue - Marginal cost up until this point needs to be smaller than marginal revenue, meaning, up until the curves intersect, it would cost less to produce the product than the revenue from the unit - If it could be the other way around, the marginal cost would be higher than the marginal revenue which would not be in the firms interest as this would lead to an economic loss - The general formula for the demand curve is: - The corresponding marginal revenue curve is: - The same curve but with twice the slope Marginal Revenue and Position on the Demand Curve - - - - What we see in the figure above is the marginal revenue and the position on the demand curve What we can look into is what happens when the monopolist decides to produce different levels of output Q For example, in the first case, the monopolist goes from producing Q0 to Q0+∆Q. And we see that we move from the higher red circle to the lower one. Now we are trading the product at a lower price, the loss in revenue from the decrease in price is depicted by the area A The gain in revenue is depicted by the area B which we see is larger than A, meaning the increase in quantity sold at the lower price is larger than the loss in revenue from the price decrease This will be the case for all prices that are above our unit elasticity point (-1), MR = 0. When we decrease price above the unit elasticity point we will increase our revenue and this is why the marginal revenue is larger than 0. If we are at a point lower than M, we have a marginal revenue smaller than 0, meaning an increase in output would result in lower revenue. This can be seen in the green circles, where the loss from increase in quantity (or decrease in price), area C, is larger than than the gain, area D Marginal Revenue can be seen as: - The gain in revenue from new sales (increase in Q) - Minus the loss in revenue from selling the previous output level at the new, lower price (decrease in P) The demand Curve and Corresponding Marginal Revenue Curve - above we have depicted our demand curve and our marginal revenue curve. The marginal revenue becomes 0 at the point of unit elasticity Demand: P = 80 – 0.2Q Marginal Revenue: P = 80 – 0.4Q - At the level of Q where we have unit elasticity, our marginal revenue is 0. That means that this is the point where the MR intersects with the x-axis, the axis where we depict units of output, Q Exercise Solution: Demand: P = 100 – 2Q Total Cost: TC = 640 + 20Q a) Find the MC (the first derivative of total cost): MC = 20 Find the Marginal Revenue Curve, which we have learned is the same as the demand curve but with 2x the slope: P = 100 – 4Q For the maximum profit level we need to set marginal revenue equal to marginal cost. MR = MC: 20 = 100 – 4Q Q* = 20 b) To find the price we put Q* in the market demand curve: P* = 100 – 2Q P* = 100 – 40 P* = 60 c) Calculate the monopolist's total revenue, total cost and profit in the short run Total Cost: TC = FC + (20 * Q*). TC(20) = 640 + 20 * 20 = 1040 Total Revenue: optimal quantity * optimal price = P* x Q* TR = 20 * 60 = 1200 Profit: TR – TC: TR – TC = 1200 – 1040 = 160 - - Below we see the graphical representation We find the optimal output level (Q) by looking at what level of output Q does the Marginal Revenue Curve intersect with the Marginal Cost curve, which is at Q=20 Inserting Q=20 to our demand curve we can see what price we will reach which in this case is P=60 Also depicted is the Average Total Cost Curve, enabling us to derive the total profit π = (60 – 52) * 20 = 160 (which is what we calculated above by subtracting the TC to the TR) Week 8 - Externalities and Public Goods (and continuation Monopoly) Shutdown Condition for Monopolist The Profit-Maximizing Monopolist Shutdown condition for a monopolist tells us that production should cease whenever average revenue is less than average variable cost at every level of output - TR = AR*Q, VC = AVC*Q. This tells us that the monopolist should shut down when the VC is higher than TR at every level of output the monopolist should not produce That is essentially equal to when there is no point where the demand curve lies above the average variable costs. - The demand curve is essentially giving us the price of the monopolist. - Contingent on how much the monopolist chooses to produce, we can read the subsequent price on the demand curve - For the perfectly competitive company firms are simply price takes ● MC = MR, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for profit maximization ● Below we see a graph of a monopolist who should shut down in the short run ● We have the demand curve, the Marginal Revenue Curve and the Short-run Marginal Cost Curve and the Average Variable Cost Curve ● The Demand Curve (price) is always lower than the average variable costs. The monopolist should shut down - The demand is not high enough to justify production in this market. ● Regarding the necessary condition MR = MC, we see this in the graph where these curves intersect at the first point. - MR curve intersects the MC curve from below, meaning the monopolist is better off at points close by on the demand curve - If the monopolist chose to increase production from this point of intersection, the monopolist would move to a point where MR is exceeding SMC, meaning the monopolist would be better of to increase production. - But the monopolist would be even better of decreasing production at this point because he would reduce the costs more than the revenue that is being lost. - We therefore know that this intersection cannot be the optimal point of production ● MR is also equal to MC at the Q1. Here MR intersects MC from above, which is necessary but not sufficient condition for profit maximization - This is because we have seen that the Demand Curve (the price) is always lower than Average Variable Cost in this case, meaning the monopolist should shut down. - Importantly, the second intersection, where MR intersects SMC from above, is what we are looking for when profit maximizing for a monopolist. But it is not sufficient as the Demand curve (price) is always lower than AVC so it doesn’t make sense for the monopolist to produce A Monopolist has no supply Curve - The Monopolist is a price maker. - In contrast to firms in perfect competition who are price takers - When demand shifts rightward, elasticity at a given price may either increase or decrease. - So there can be no unique correspondence between the price a monopolist charges and the amount the monopolist chooses to produce - Instead of having a supply curve, the monopolist has a supply rule Monopolist has a supply rule, which is to produce where marginal revenue equals marginal cost Perfect Competition vs Monopoly Perfect Competition Suppliers maximize profit by: - Necessary Condition MC = P with P > min AVC - Demand Curve is perfectly elastic Suppliers are price takers Efficient allocation of resources - No possibilities for additional gains from exchange Monopoly Monopolist maximizes profit by: - Necessary Condition: MC = MR with AR > min AVC AR = Demand Curve, which means the demand curve needs to be above the min AVC - Monopolist is a price maker - he determines the price based on the quantity he produces Inefficient allocation of resources as prices charged are higher than marginal cost Answer: Deman Curve: P = 100 - 1/10Q Marginal Cost of Production: MC = 1/15Q a) Perfect Competition - Suppliers are price takers Set Demand equal to marginal cost (that represents the supply curve) b) Monopoly - monopolist is a price maker Find the marginal revenue curve: - can be derived by simply multiplying the slope with 2 or multiplying the demand curve with Q, resulting in the total revenue curve and taking the first derivative of TR resulting in MR which is the same as the demand curve with 2x the slope Find the marginal revenue curve: MR = 100 – 1/5Q set the marginal revenue curve equal to the marginal cost curve: For perfect competition: - As the minimum of the AVC is 0 the supply curve in a market of perfect competition is the Marginal Cost Curve, which intersects at Q = 600 and P=40 For the Monopolist - We look at where the Marginal Revenue Curve intersects with the Marginal Cost Curve and plugg that quantity into the demand curve leading to Q=375 and P=62.5 C) Surplus and Total Welfare Perfect Competition - the area above the price and below the demand curve is the consumer surplus - The Producer surplus is the area below the price and above the industry supply curve (marginal cost curve above AVC) Monopolist - - The consumer surplus is derived the same way, it is the triangle below the demand curve and above the price. The Producer Surplus is derived differently as it is the purple area The triangle called dead weight loss is the welfare that is lost when the monopolist produces instead of a perfectly competitive market c) Welfare Calculations Welfare Calculations Perfect Competition Welfare Calculations Monopoly - - To Calculate the Producer Surplus for the Monopolist we divide up the are into 2 areas a triangle and a square First we calculate the triangle, which is the are above the MC curve and Below the price where MC and MR interset, in this case 25. - Triangle (25*375) / 2 Then we calculated the remaining rectangle which is equal to the area above the Price where MC = MR and below the Price equilibrium, as well as between the y-axis and the quantity supplied by the monopolist (375) - - - Rectangle = (62.5 – 25) * 375 In the case of a monopoly (compared to perfect competition) surplus is shifted from the consumer to the monopolist. (we can see this as the PS increases and the CS decreases. Nevertheless, when comparing the total welfare, we see that monopoly is decreasing total welfare by 4 218.75 We call this loss in welfare Deadweight loss from Monopoly The Efficiency Loss from Monopoly Deadweight loss from monopoly: the loss of efficiency due to the presence of a monopoly A competitive market is efficient when it maximizes the net benefits to its participants (total welfare) The deadweight loss from the monopoly is the result of a failure of the monopolist to price discriminate perfectly. If the monopolist could price discriminate perfectly essentially there would only be producer surplus and no consumer surplus and the total welfare would be equal to producer surplus which would be equal to the total welfare in the situation of a perfectly competitive market Public Policy & Monopolies Public Policy Towards Natural Monopoly - Public policies towards natural monopolies can differ quite a bit and there is different approaches in terms of how to deal with natural monopolies ● ● ● ● ● State Ownership and Management State Regulation of Private Monopolies Exclusive Contracting for Natural Monopoly Vigorous Enforcement of Antitrust Laws A Laissez-faire Policy towards Natural Monopoly None of these approaches completely eliminates the difficulties that aries when a single seller serves the market. [book p.393] Dynamic Efficiency of Monopoly What is the alternative (counterfactual) to the current situation, the monopoly? - Not clear that a society which exploits all current gains from exchange, but fails to invest in future product development, is efficient. - For perfect competition all economic profits are exhausted meaning there is less money for R&D - The ability to have a monopoly creates possibility to reap the benefits of investing in R&D and innovation which serves as an incentive to invest in innovation - ‘Rich’ Firms (possibly monopolys) also have more money to invest in innovation which may lead to faster innovation - Summary: Less Incentive & less funds - Short-term gain may result in a long-term welfare loss due to the lack of new products or cost-saving production techniques Externalities and Public Goods Externality An externality is an economic term referring to a cost or benefit incurred or received by a third party who has no control over how that cost or benefit was created Externalities - Negative externality: an activity that imposes external costs on others - A smoker disturbs other individuals around and negatively affects their health. - Driving a car causes noise and air pollution which is imposed on third parties - A coal power plant emits CO2 which affects the climate - Positive externality: an activity that creates external benefits for others. - NASA invented Teflon for space travel which is now being used as coating for pans - The construction of the new metro stations in Copenhagen raises the prices for real estate close by - which is ofcourse positive for thos who own the apartments, negative for those who want to purchase though - When fixed line telephony was rolled out in the US in the early 20th century another adopter meant that you could call more people (direct network externality) - If another person purchased an adopter it meant you could call one more person - Another PlayStation 4 user means that a PS4 game producer can potentially sell games to more consumers (indirect network externality) Externalities and Market Efficiency - Cost benefit analysis says do activity x if B(x) > C(x) here B(x) and C(x) measure private benefit and cost - Efficiency requires to do activity x if SB(x) Z SC(x) Where SB(x) and SC(x) measure Social benefit and cost. - In the absence of externalities, private and social benefit are identical - In the absence of externalities, the 2 equations above are identical. - In this case suppliers internalize all social costs and benefits and make efficient decision regarding their output In the presence of externalities this is not the case anymore as the externalities occur with somebody else and are not taken into consideration when making a decision Example: Environmental Protection When a firm decides how much to invest in environment protection, the managers compare the cost of reducing emissions with the (private) benefits of emissions reduction. - But there are also other firms/consumers that benefit from such an investment - This additional benefit is not internalized by the profit maximizing firm - Therefore a free competitive market leada here to an underinvestment in environmental protection - The firm should have invested more in environmental protection than it did because it is only looking at private benefit and cost and not internalizing social benefits and costs This leads to an inefficient allocation of resources Social Optimal Level It is efficient to increase the level of activity as long as MSB (Marginal Social Benefit) > MSC (Marginal Social Cost) Where demand equals supply in perfect competition, we have marginal private cost equal marginal private benefit - If there are externalities in the market, this is not an efficient way to set quantities and prices Example: - Below are market demand and supply curves for the market of electricity given. - The equilibrium, decided as usual, is at Q = 1000 units of electricity at P=50 - Scientist estimate that production Q causes marginal environmental damage equivalent to €Q/40 = 1/40Q € If we take that into account we would have to recalculate Marginal Cost to get to the Marginal Social Cost which equals the supply curve. Calculate the MSC/supply curve taking into account the social costs: - - Taking social costs into account results in an upward rotation of our supply curve which is denoted MSC This new supply curve intersects with price at a lower level of Q and higher level of P. Leading to less quantity produced at a higher price, as the social costs are taken into account Internalizing Externalities - - Extremely important problem in today's society, an example is pollution, where the private costs and social costs differ quite substantially leading to inefficient outcomes if social costs are taken into account. We see how important it is to figure out economic mechanisms to make sure social costs are internalized How to internalize Costs and Benefits from externalities 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. - Contracts (Coase Theorem) Taxes Mergers and Acquisitions Creating Markets for Externalities Government Intervention and Regulation All the above are mechanisms to internalize externalities (social costs and benefits) Internalizing Externalities with Contracts - Closely related to the Coase Theorem 1. Contracts - The Coase Theorem The Coase Theorem: When the parties affected by externalities can negotiate costlessly with one another and property rights are well defined, an efficient outcome results no matter how the law assigns responsibility for damages - Efficient in that the outcome is efficient no matter how the law assigns responsibility and in that no government intervention is needed ● Efficient laws and social institutions are the ones that place the burden of adjustment to externalities on those who can accomplish the adjustment at least cost Coase Theorem and Positive Externalities - The coase theorem applies not only to negative externalities but also to positive ones. For example, a beekeeper and an apple grower operating on adjacent properties that confer positive externalities on each other These positive externalities if ignored will result in sub-optimally small levels of both apple and honey production Inefficiencies result only if it is costly or impractical to negotiate agreements to correct them If it is not costly to negotiate the apple grower and beekeeper will find a way to maximize profits of both involved parties, leading to the most efficient outcome. Coase Theorem and Property Rights ● The Coase Theorem shows that market efficiency will result if there are clearly defined property rights and negotiation is costless ● No free-market economy can function successfully without laws that govern the use of private property. - We do need property rights to qualify who is responsible in the case of twists, and these rights need to be enforced. Transaction Costs Limiting the Coase Theorem - Transaction costs can limit the coase theorem quite drastically and so the mechanism of contracts is used to internalize these externalities - The larger the number of affected parties the more difficult and costly are negotiations - Takes a lot of time and effort - Private negotiations might be impossible as the affected do not know each other - An example is people who like to drive very fast on highways and so impose negative externalities on others, as the different drivers do not know each other it is very hard for them to negotiate a price that the safe drivers should be compensated for the negative externalities imposed by the reckless driver. The negotiation would as well have to take place among a large number of parties making it to costly Asymmetric information regarding the benefit and/or costs can lead to inefficient allocations - Often it is not know what the social benefits and costs are - Example the fast driver, he would have an incentive to say that his benefit from driving fast is not very high so that he is not required to pay that much for the right to drive fast. While the other people would have an incentive to say that the negative social costs imposed on them are very high as the risk is very high so that they can be rewarded high compensation - If we are not able to find an objective measure for the social costs and benefits then we might also end up with an inefficient allocation - - Contracts might be incomplete – it is too costly to codify all possible external effects that can occur Exercise: Internalizing Externalities with Contracts - - Commonly there are too many parties (other guests) involved in a cafe for which individual negotiations would need to be held - Alot of negotiations and transaction costs The affected could be identified but there is a lot of fluctuation of guests in a cafe Smokers would have an interest to overstate their benefits of smoking and other guests to overstate the costs of the negative externality - It is hard to objectively decide the social benefits and costs. Internalizing Externalities with Taxes 2. Taxing Externalities If A carries out an activity that imposes a cost on B, then taxing A by the amount of that cost will provide him with the proper incentive to consider the externality in his production decisions. ● Efficiency here depends on details of respective externality [see example with doctor and confectioner p.566] ● If negotiation is costless, taxing will always lead to an efficient outcome Internalizing Externalities through Mergers & Acquisitions 3. Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As) If firm A causes negative externalities that affect firm B, then the externalities can be internalized by the two firms merging or firm B acquiring firm A ● Externalities are a main motivation for M&As. Additional profit that is generated by internalizing externalities is also called synergy. - Unlock positive externalities or deal with negative externalities ● M&As also work when contracts cannot be used as a measure to internalize externalities ● But M&As might be problematic as they limit competition and might be regulated by policy makers ○ This relates to efficiency of markets, if regulators believe that a merger will result in a monopoly market they might see the necessity to intervene. In that case M&A would not be a possible solution to internalize externalities Internalizing Externalities through Creation of Markets - Another means to internalize externalities is through the creation of markets 4. Creating Markets for Externalities We can interpret the issue of externalities as an issue of a missing market for externalities. One solution could be to create a market for externalities, e.g the right to emit CO2 Example: - X* is the efficient amount of CO2 emissions - The policy maker creates X* certificates that provide the right to emit CO2 (well-defined property rights, who is allowed to emit CO2 in the market) - With the help of an auction these emission rights are sold off. The auctioneer calls out a price. All firms submit simultaneously how many certificates they want to buy for the price the auctioneer is calling out - At the price where all emission rights are auctioned off, the certificates are being traded This process represents an efficient allocation: ● There will be exactly the optimal amount of emission, X* ● The firms that can avoid emissions more easily, i.e in a cheaper manner, will reduce their emission more as it is cheaper than to buy emission rights ● In contrast the firms that have the highest costs to avoid emissions will buy emission certificates ● This means the emission reduction is implemented at the lowest possible cost ● Importantly in this case, the firms self-select into which means is the best way for them to reduce CO2, is it cheaper for them to avoid emission or is it better to purchase the emission rights because it is too costly to reduce the emission. This is why we reach an efficient solution where the emission reduction is implemented at the lowest possible cost. See EU Emissions Trading System ( EU ETS) Internalizing Externalities through Government Regulation 5. Government Regulation - Probably the most common method to regulate externalities are laws and regulations. This Method has some disadvantages: - The regulator needs to have a good idea about the costs and benefits of the involved parties to be able to come up with proper regulation - The regulation forces everyone to behave in the same way despite their very different cost structures, other methods may lead to more efficient allocation, here all parties are forced to behave in the same manner. If another method were to be used, a more efficient allocation could possibly be achieved - Taxes and Markets for Externalities are often more efficient as they allow for room of making efficient decisions for the involved parties, in contrast to the one size fits all solution of regulations and laws Teacher: ‘we haven’t gone into much depth of the solutions for dealing with externalities but it is important to know what possible solutions exist, to deal with externalities that present a challenge for today's societies’ Public Goods - Can be interpreted as a special case of externalities Public Goods Public Goods are goods for which no rivalry in consumption exists. - In extreme cases this means if a consumer A in a group of individuals consumes the good it is also available for consumption to all other individuals without decreasing the benefits or causing additional costs of consumption for A. Examples: - National Defense - Benefits all consumers at the same time - Infrastructure - TV and radio programs - Software, Movies, Streaming Services ● Most public goods are not ‘pure’ public good as there are additional costs to consumption with an increasing number of consumers: ○ Traffic jams on roads ○ Longer loading times on websites ○ Not pure public goods in the sense that there is some rivalry at some point of mass consumption ● It is not important for public goods that other consumers cannot be excluded from consumption, this is technically often possible (highway tolls, patents, encryption of TV signal) ○ Exclusion is not what determines if a good is a public good ● The important aspect is that there is no rivalry in consumption ● Public goods can be interpreted as a special type of external effect: if one consumer consumes an additional unit of the public good then all other consumers can consume this unit as well ○ This could be thought of as, if a consumer makes the decision to consume the public good, he at the same time provides this opportunity of consumption for everyone else for free, This is Where the problem of public goods come from Market Failure due to Public Good Provision we can have market failure due to public good provision In the provision of public goods we often face an inefficient allocation: ● Every consumer hopes that another consumer provides the public good to use it for free. ○ All of us are hoping that one consumer makes the decision to provide a specific public good so that we all can use it for free. Why should we be the one to pay for the public good and provide it to everyone ● Often this leads to no provision of the public good - That is what we call a Free-rider problem Which is more severe when: - Involved parties do not know each others willingness to pay for the public good - More parties are involved - The parties do not interact regularly - - If parties would know each others willingness to pay, and were able to interact and negotiate they could potentially come up with a way to jointly provide the public good and all benefit from it while all contribute to it. But again if there are many parties involved then this type of negotiation becomes very difficult How to overcome the Free-Rider Problem 1. Private Negotiations - With few involved parties - Well known willingness to pay 2. Private Provision - A private provider can provide the good given the provider can charge the consumers for using the good (i.e highway tolls when private provider build and maintain the road) 3. Public Provision - The government provides the public good (e.g infrastructure) paid with taxes that are being redistributed - That is related to the question we have discussed earlier. When should the public good then be provided? should be contingent on the consumer surplus, that the regulators estimate. What is the aggregate willingness to pay of the consumers that would make use of the public good and only if the cost of provision is lower than this aggregated benefit then this public good should be provided Network Externalities & Exercise: External Reading Reading: 6 Reasons Platforms Fail Platform managers fail to manage the growth and evolution of digital platforms inadequately because of: 1. Failure to optimize ‘openness’ - To what extent do you give different types of stakeholders access to the platform. - Example IOS: to what extent do developers get access to the platform and are able to make use of the platform 2. Failure to engage developers - You need to find a way to make it attractive for third parties to develop apps or other services and complementary products on your platform. 3. Failure to share the surplus - The platform need to share the surplus in a way that makes it attractive for all parties, example an auction site which only benefits customers will not engage any producers 4. Failure to launch the right side - Commonly we have 2 sided platforms like ebay with sellers and buyers. Contingent on how a platform is growing we need to understand which side needs support and attraction. 5. Failure to put critical mass ahead of money - It is important to first focus on attracting a critical mass before focusing on extracting money as the platform otherwise will stall. 6. Failure of Imagination - Establish players which fail to see the value of platforms and run their company more traditionally leading to them losing out on value and being outcompeted Positive Network Externalities Direct Network Externalities: - An increase in the number of users leads to an increase in the consumer’s utility for the good. E. g: - Fax and telephone connections - Social Networks, the larger number of people on social networks the larger number of people to communicate with, the larger value Indirect Network Externalities: - An increase in the number of users causes an increase in the utility for providers of complementary goods which in turn cause an increase in the utility for the focal good. E.g: - Video Consoles and games - becomes more attractive to provide games for a console if there are more consumers using the console and then then console comes become more attractive - Smartphone operating systems and apps - Positive feedback loop Negative Network Externalities Network Externalities can also be negative. Negative Direct Network Externalities: - More console game produces compete against each other, from a game producer standpoint - More users of a telephone service causes waiting time to reach the customer support Negative Indirect Network: When a network becomes more popular, unwanted complementary products can enter the market: - Computer viruses: the more people using an operating system the more attractive it becomes more attractive to produce viruses on the platform - More advertising on social media platform Exercise - 6 Reasons Platforms Fail Answer a) The marginal cost of adding another user is zero. Instagram is also not directly charging consumers to use the platform but indirectly by selling the opportunity to show ads to users. - The supply curve would be horizontal at a price equal to 0. As Instagram is willing to add another user for free. The marginal cost is 0 in the short run b) The network effects have no influence on the supply curve but does have an influence on the demand. As the utility of the platform increases with the number of users the demand curve shifts outwards. Leading to an increase in the quantity demanded – the number of users that want to use the platform - Here we have demand side network externalities that increase the utility of the consumers meaning it will increase the willingness to pay by the consumers and it will shift the demand curve outwards, leading to an increase in quantity demanded. c) Indirect Network Externalities: The more users are present on the platform the more interesting it becomes for advertisers to serve ass on the platform. The more advertises are on the platform: - The more interesting ads consumers might see - The more ads that annoy users will be displayed Both Positive and negative indirect network effects are present in this example