As Helmuth von Moltke the Elder said:
"No plan survives first contact with the enemy."
WHAT-IF SCENARIO ANALYSIS (WISA)
[WHAT-IF ANALYSIS or SCENARIO ANALYSIS]
No good military officer would undertake even a smallscale attack on a limited objective without a clear concept
of his strategy.
SCOPE OF THE PRESENTATION
• WISA
• BASIC STEPS IN EXECUTION OF WISA
• KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER
• 10 ESSENTIAL STRATEGY TOOLS
• SCENARIO DESCRIPTION/PROPOSED PANELIST
• OUTPUT FORMAT (SMEAC)
• What-if scenario analysis (WISA) is a business/organization planning
and modeling technique used to yield various projections for some
outcome based on selectively changing inputs. A powerful decision
making tool for strategic thinkers and a BRAINSTORMING technique.
• A What-If Analysis is about looking at what happens when certain
actions are taken. From the different scenarios, you then look at
which results contributes most to the objective.
• Scenario planning allows an organization to respond to alternative
situations more quickly and effectively because they have developed
strategies to rely upon.
• A scenario, in this context, is a potential circumstance or combination
of circumstances that could have a significant impact -- whether good
or ill -- on an organization.
• Scenarios are alternate futures in which today's decisions may play
out. They are stories with beginnings, middles and ends. Good
scenarios have twists and turns that show how the environment might
change over time.
• Whether short-term or long-term, all plans deal with the future and
therefore have a lot of uncertainty built into them. While it is a good
idea to improve the plan using better techniques, it is more important
to embrace the uncertainty and incorporate it into the plan.
• What-if planning is one of the accepted techniques to better prepare
for this uncertainty. Under this technique, various likely scenarios are
evaluated with the input of key constituents.
• Scenario planning cannot be expected to provide all of the answers,
but it does help an organization to ask better questions and prepare
for the unexpected.
BASIC STEPS IN THE EXECUTION OF WISA
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
ASSEMBLE A TEAM/GROUP
DEVELOP WHAT-IF QUESTIONS
RISK ASSESSMENT
DEVELOP A RECOMMENDATION
EVALUATION
KEY POINTS TO REMEMBER
 Real scenario analysis is more than short-term what-if?
Analysis
 Scenario planning expands our horizons.
 Scenario planning rapidly uncovers the inevitable.
 Scenario planning protects against consensual
thinking.
10 ESSENTIAL TOOLS FOR STRATEGY ANALYSIS
1. SWOT
2. PORTER’S VALUE CHAIN
3. THE STRATEGY CANVAS
4. THE BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS
5. PESTEL
6. MCKINSEY 7S
7. PORTER’S FIVE FORCES
8. PARETO ANALYSIS
9. BCG MATRIX
10. SCENARIO ANALYSIS
SCENARIO DESCRIPTION
1
The “Edge of Oblivion” is a worst-case scenario that sees a total breakdown of the
rules-based international order, and a failed or poorly-implemented transition to
federalism at home in the Philippines. In this scenario, national governments (including
the Philippines) will be forced to scramble for resources to assure their populations of
continued supply of vital goods and to remain in power; consequently, securing these
resources requires amassing of force. In the absence of any cooperative mediating
mechanism, this will result in localized arms races and more aggressive posturing on
the part of nation-states, which means in this scenario, clashes of arms, and
consequently conflict, happens. (Source: Philippine Security in 2022-2028: A Preview by
Paculba, et. Al, OSSSM, AFP, 2018)
2
3
As a result of NSC and DFA statements to the EU to cease funding to CPP-NPA
“fronts”, aggravated by the losing of majority of the party list groups supporting the
CPP-NPA, massive extortion and harrassment activities increase in various parts of the
country. Further, the CPP-NPA groups in Mindanao conglomerate in Compostela Valley
and plan to foribly occupy the Municipality of Prosperidad, Agusan del Sur.
Due to the failure of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority to effectively establish the
Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), new separatist
groups composed of former BIAF members were organized to totally bring down efforts
to put order in the Region. The group threatened to raid barangays in the outskirts of
General Santos City and create a scene similar to what happened in Zamboanga in
2013.
PROPOSED PANEL
SCENARIO DESCRIPTION
4
5
6
In the future, the Philippines has finally acquired its subsurface warfare capabilities,
including its diesel-electric submarines. During its maiden voyage, it was tasked to
conduct covert intelligence gathering operations in the West Philippine Sea. However,
as the submarine was returning to the Philippines, its electronic signature was recorded
by the PLA-N and proceeded to cut off the submarine’s route back to the Philippines,
citing “actions of the Philippines designed to aggravate the issue”, and shoot down the
newly-acquired submarine.
The Philippine Navy maintains occupied islands in the Spratly Islands through reprovisioning and rotation of troops using PN vessels. However, in the latest re-provision
and rotation of personnel, the PN vessel conducting the mission was blocked by
Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels, disabling the PN vessel to proceed with its
mission. While there was no collision, the CCG vessels clearly harassed the PN vessel
firing warning shots, but not hitting the PN vessel
Escalation of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The election of Tsai Ing-Wen to the
presidency of Taiwan in 2016 has raised the possibility of conflict with China. Tsai is
part of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is known to be open to the
possibility of Taiwan formally declaring independence. The PRC for its part considers
Taiwan a renegade province and has stated its willingness to use force to reunite the
two if Taiwan declared independence. As a result of increasing tensions between China
and Taiwan, the latter attempts to spread its forces down south and takes over Itbayat
Island in Batanes.
PROPOSED PANEL
WHAT IF SCENARIO ANALYSIS OUTPUT
• RISK ASSESSMENT
• Provide a coherent and structured approach to identifying , assessing and managing risk in the given
scenario
• Minor Risks/Major Risks
• Risk sources are both internal and external to the project. ... Parameters for evaluating, categorizing, and
prioritizing risks typically include risk likelihood (i.e., the probability of risk occurrence), risk consequence (i.e.,
the impact and severity of risk occurrence), and thresholds to trigger management activities.
• RECOMMENDATION
• Stakeholder Analysis
• EVALUATION
• Strategic evaluation and control is the process of determining the effectiveness of a given strategy in
achieving the organizational objectives and taking corrective actions whenever required.
• A systematic, rigorous, and meticulous application of scientific methods to assess the design, implementation,
improvement, or outcomes of a program. It is a resource-intensive process, frequently requiring resources,
such as, evaluate expertise, labor, time, and a sizable budget.
• Assessment of teaching means taking a measure of its effectiveness. “Formative”assessment is measurement
for the purpose of improving it. ... Evaluation is the process of observing and measuring a thing for the
purpose of judging it and of determining its “value,” either by comparison to similar things, or to a standard.
WHAT IF SCENARIO ANALYSIS OUTPUT
• RISK ASSESSMENT
• Provide a coherent and structured approach to identifying , assessing
and managing risk in the given scenario
• Minor Risks/Major Risks
• Risk sources are both internal and external to the project. ... Parameters for
evaluating, categorizing, and prioritizing risks typically include risk likelihood
(i.e., the probability of risk occurrence), risk consequence (i.e., the impact
and severity of risk occurrence), and thresholds to
trigger management activities.
• RECOMMENDATION
• EVALUATION
WHAT IF SCENARIO ANALYSIS OUTPUT
• RISK ASSESSMENT
• Provide a coherent and structured approach to identifying , assessing
and managing risk in the given scenario
• Minor Risks/Major Risks
• Risk sources are both internal and external to the project. ... Parameters for
evaluating, categorizing, and prioritizing risks typically include risk likelihood
(i.e., the probability of risk occurrence), risk consequence (i.e., the impact
and severity of risk occurrence), and thresholds to
trigger management activities.
• RECOMMENDATION
• EVALUATION
PROPOSED OUTPUT (SMEAC)
1. Situation - The situation paragraph contains information on the overall status and
disposition of both friendly and enemy forces. The situation paragraph contains three
subparagraphs.
a. Enemy Forces - This subparagraph contains essential information concerning the
enemy’s composition, disposition, and strength based on its size, activity, location, unit,
time, and equipment.
b. Friendly Forces - Contains essential information concerning the mission of the next
higher unit, location and mission of adjacent units, and mission of non-organic
supporting units.
2. Mission - Provides a clear and concise statement of what the unit must accomplish.
The mission statement is the heart of the order and should answer the following five (5)
questions: 1. Who 2. What 3. When 4. Where 5. Why
SMEAC
3. Execution - Contains the “how to” information needed to conduct the operation. The
paragraph is divided into three subparagraphs:
a. Concept of Operations - This is a general explanation of the tactical plan; includes a brief
scheme of maneuver from start to conclusion, type of attack and fire support plan.
b. Tasks - The specific mission to be accomplished by each subordinate element of the unit will
be listed in a separate numbered subparagraph. It is the subordinate’s unit mission
statement.
c. Coordinating Instructions - The specific instructions and tasks that apply to two or more
units; includes order of movement, planned combat formations, tactical and fire control
measures (i.e. phase lines and checkpoints) and any other tasks that pertain to the mission.
SMEAC
4. Administration and Logistics - This paragraph contains information or instructions
pertaining to rations and ammunition, location of the distribution point, corpsman, aid
station, handling of prisoners of war, other administrative and supply matters.
5. Command and Signal - This paragraph contains instructions and information relating to
command and communication functions. It contains two (2) subparagraphs:
a. Command - Identifies the chain of command and their location before, during, and after the
operation.
b. Signal - Gives signal instructions for the operation such as frequencies, call signs,
pyrotechnics, emergency signals, radio procedures, brevity codes, challenge and password.
END OF BRIEFING