Biologia 69/11: 1625—1630, 2014 Section Zoology DOI: 10.2478/s11756-014-0452-y Potential effects of climate change on the Chinese Bulbul (Pycnontus sinensis) in China Longying Wen1,2* , Huigen He3, Yong Wang4, Jimmy Gorimar5 & Mark Liu6* 1 College of Life Sciences, Leshan Normal University, Leshan 614004, Sichuan, China; e-mail: lywen02@126.com Key Laboratory of Colleges and Universities in Sichuan Province for Protecting Endangered Birds in the Southwest Mountains, Leshan, 614004, Sichuan, China 3 Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China 4 Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Alabama A&M University, Normal, AL 35762, USA 5 Faculty of English, Leshan Normal University, Leshan 614004, Sichuan, China 6 Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA; e-mail: markliu@fas.harvard.edu 2 Abstract: The Chinese Bulbul (Pycnontus sinensis) has an extensive distribution throughout southern China. Investigators have reported that the species has expanded its distribution range northward since 1995. We performed a literature review and analysis to examine the relationships between the range expansion of the species and the changes of climate and habitat. We found that the northward range expansion was associated with the increased temperature and human created habitat. We believe that the combination of the increased temperature and the ability to utilize human created habitat while maintaining genetic diversity resulted in the population increase and range expansion of the species. We suggest that increased temperature and human disturbance could lead to evolutionary and distributional changes of some species such as the Chinese Bulbul, therefore possibly making these species indicators of climate change. Key words: climate change; human activity; Chinese Bulbul; north range expansion; evolution Introduction The topic of climate change is not without controversy (Davidson & Janssens 2006; Hulme 2010). Understanding the effect of climate change on bird populations is undoubtedly important for our knowledge of avian species evolution or extinction and maintaining biodiversity (Wang et al. 2012). One of the direct impacts of climate change, particularly the change of ambient temperature, is the temporal and spatial shifts in food abundance and suitable habitat. For examples, the great tit Parus major L., 1758 and the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca (Pallas, 1774) have showed population declines because of changes in food availability during their breeding season (Both & Visser 2001). Climate change has also affected birds in other aspects such as migration timing (Butler 2003; MurphyKlassen et al. 2005; MacMynowski et al. 2007), migration route (Fiedler 2003; Newton 2008), the occurrence and spread of invasive avian species (Reino et al. 2009), and other life-history features (Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Rosenzweig et al. 2008) such as the breeding season (Crick & Sparks 1999; Dunn & Winkler 1999). However, these changes are complicated by concurrent alterations caused by human activities such as the modification of * Corresponding author c 2014 Institute of Zoology, Slovak Academy of Sciences land-use and land-cover patterns at local, regional, and global landscape scales (Tryjanowski & Sparks 2001; Rosenzweig et al. 2008). Many studies about the effect of climate change on birds have focused on the shift or expansion of species distribution range (Pounds et al. 1999; Walther et al. 2002; Hitch & Leberg 2007; La & Thompson 2007; Peh 2007; Brommer & Møller 2010; Robinet & Roques 2010). It is generally agreed that climate changes affect bird species distributions because species-specific physiological tolerance to temperature, precipitation, and other environmental variations (Woodward 1987; Hoffman & Parsons 1997). The impact of climate change depends on the evolutionary history and endogenous control mechanisms of the birds (Knudsen et al. 2011). Some bird species are more sensitive to climatic change and can respond quickly to environmental changes (Møller et al. 2004). The Chinese Bulbul Pycnontus sinensis (Gmelin, 1789) is a common species of East Asia and widely distributed in southern China. The species is often associated with humanaltered habitats such as urban parks, forest belts, and rural agricultural areas. Studies have reported recent expansion of this species to previously uninhabited regions in northern China (Song et al. 2013; Xing et al. 2013). This northward expansion is consistent to what L. Wen et al. 1626 Fig. 1. Distribution of Chinese Bulbul (Pycnonotus sinensis), grey area presenting provinces before range expansion, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are new distribution locations: Zhengzhou (Henan Province), Rongcheng (Shandong Province), Qingyang (Gansu Province), Beijing City, Dalian (Liaoning Province), and Xining (Qinghai Province), respectively. Fig. 2. Annual mean temperature of Zhengzhou (Henan Province), Rongcheng (Shandong Province), Qingyang (Gansu Province), Beijing City, Dalian (Liaoning Province), and Xining (Qinghai Province) during the period of 1951–2008. has been reported in other bird species, supposedly in response to climate change (Thomas & Lennon 1999; Walther 2004). In addition to climatic change, other researchers have reported that the range expansion of some bird species could be due to the direct and indirect effects of human activities such as those related to urbanization (Burger 1981; Jean-Marc 2006). We evaluated the data of Chinese Bulbul’s recent northward expansion from literature, climate changes, and urbanization of the newly inhabited areas to explore the potential relationship between the northward range ex- pansion of Chinese Bulbul and changes in climatic and human activities. Methods We compiled the data from the studies that reported the northward range expansion of the Chinese Bulbul in China (Fig. 1). We obtained climatic data from the National Climate Center of China and data of human population growth and the area of urban parks and gardens from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for the new distribution loca- Climate change and Chinese Bulbul distribution 1627 Table 1. Differences of the average temperature ( ◦C) and precipitation (mm) in Zhengzhou, Rongcheng, Qingyang, Beijing, Dalian, and Xining between the period of 1951–1994 and that of 1995–2008. The differences were tested with two independent sample t-test. Time classification Annual Spring Summer Autumn Winter Temperature Precipitation Temperature Precipitation Temperature Precipitation Temperature Precipitation Temperature Precipitation Zhengzhou Rongcheng Qingyang Beijing Dalian Xining 1.01** –1.48 1.56** –0.36 0.18 48.77 0.91** –16.50 1.40** –8.78 1.02** 9.48 0.89** 12.79 0.21 8.08 1.28** –12.21 1.70** 0.82 1.40** –57.18 1.78** –27.62 1.02** –12.96 1.19** –10.89 1.60** –5.71 1.30** –159.03 1.44** 6.82 0.96** –171.59 1.13** 6.83 1.69** –1.09 1.11** –80.92 1.37** 8.18 0.87** –54.74 0.82** –22.02 1.39** –12.34 0.00 54.25** 0.14 12.91 –0.01 31.20** –0.27 10.56 0.13 3.04 Explanations: ** The difference is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); * The difference is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). Fig. 3. The human population changes from 1954 to 2010 in Henan, Shandong, Gansu, Liaoning, and Qinghai provinces and Beijing City. tions of the Chinese Bulbul (Fig. 2). Because the Chinese Bulbul was found to expand northward beginning in 1995 (Zhang et al. 2008), we used 1995 as the dividing year for the period spanning from 1951 to 2008. We compared the average temperature and precipitation between the period from 1951 to 1994 and that from 1995 to 2008. The differences were tested with two independent sample t-test with P < 0.05 as the significant level. Statistical analyses were performed with SPSS16 (SPASS Inc., Chicago, IL USA). Results Northern range expansion of Chinese Bulbul The Chinese Bulbul was first reported northward range expansion in Zhengzhou, Henan Province of China in 1995 (Zhang et al. 2008). Later it was found in Qingyang, Gansu Province (Han & Zhou 2005); Beijing (Zhang et al. 2003); Rongcheng, Shandong Province (Yan 2003); Xingtai, Hebei Province (Wu & Wu 2005); Dalian, Liaoning Province (Wang et al. 2005); Xining, Qinghai Province (Li et al. 2006); and Yinchuan, Ningxia Huizu Autonomous Region (Du & Ma 2011). The most recent report (Li et al. 2013) suggested that the distribution was further expanded north to Shenyang, Liaoning Province, at the latitude of 41◦ 42 (Fig. 1). Changes in temperature and precipitation The increasing trend in annual mean temperature appeared in Zhengzhou, Rongcheng, Qingyang, Beijing, Dalian, and Xining from 1951 to 2008 (Fig. 2). Except for Xining, the temperature was significantly higher during the period of 1995–2008 than that of 1951–1994 for all areas where Chinese Bulbul newly occurred. The temperature increased about two degrees Celsius in the northern regions during both winter and spring seasons (both P < 0.01). The precipitation was not different between the two periods at these locations (Table 1). Changes in human population and urban green areas The human population increased during the period of 1954–2010 in all locations where the Chinese Bulbul expanded its range to with an exception of Qinghai Province. The largest population occurred in Henan 1628 L. Wen et al. Fig. 4. The change of total areas of parks, gardens and green spaces (hectares) from 1999 to 2011 in Henan, Shandong, Gansu, Liaoning, and Qinghai provinces and Beijing City. and Shandong provinces of all years examined (Fig. 3). Increased human population created extensive metropolitan areas which lead to an increase in the number of urban parks, gardens, and other urban green spaces. The trends of the change in the total green areas were similar to that of human population growth. The total areas of parks increased in all areas from 1999 to 2011. While the rate increase was the lowest at Qinghai Province, it was the highest at Shandong Province (Fig. 4). Discussion This study suggested an association between the northern range expansion of the Chinese Bulbul and increasing temperature in mainland China. Climatic change is often associated with the rising temperature during winter and spring (McCarthy et al. 2001), which was also the case in this study. Warmer temperature may function as an ecological release for some species, and allow these species to expand into areas where they were not able to inhabit previously due to lower temperature and lack of suitable resources such as food for survive or breeding (Thomas & Lennon 1999; Walther et al. 2002; Brommer 2004; Gao 2006; Gong 2007; Luo et al. 2006; Parmesan 2006; Hitch & Leberg 2007; La & Thompson 2007; Stephen et al. 2011). The Chinese Bulbul’s northward range expansion could be such an example related to the climatic change. The northern expansion of the Chinese Bulbul could have an impact on the surrounding habitat because of its dietary preferences. Bulbuls are known to feed on the seeds of the Southern China Yew (Taxus chinensis var. mairei), which could lead to a northward expansion of the Yew and other plant species: an indirect impact to the native ecosystems of climate change. On the other side, the native species that cannot adapt to the new climate conditions or shift their geographical distribution may be at risk of extinction when climate changes (Huntley et al. 2006; Thomas et al. 2004). The Chinese Bulbuls’ northward expansion is consistent with the paradigm that geographically-widely distributed species have lower extinction probability compared to those with limited distribution range. Climate change has been related to the events from anthropogenic disturbances (Milly et al. 2005; Root et al. 2005; Wu et al. 2005), and the change may advance the time of leaf-out, flower blooming, and seed reproduction of plants (Rosenzweig et al. 2008). Food availability is often a limited factor for the range expansion of animals. Our study showed that the urban green area was increased with the increase of human population (Figs 3 and 4). The Bulbul, feeding primarily on seeds, flowers, fruits, leaf buds and insects, benefited most likely from the increase of both the temperature and food resources at urban green areas associated with the growth of human population in northern China, which resulted in the northward range expansion of the species. Generally, there are lower levels of genetic diversities in frontier or pioneer populations because of small population size or in-breeding among closely related individuals (Xie & Zhang 2006). However, genetic diversity has been found not be low in the newly expanding populations of the Chinese Bulbul (Song et al. 2013), which suggested the pioneer population of the Bulbul still retains an innate evolutionary potential. It was reported that there are large variations in the song patterns of pioneer populations of the Chinese Bulbul in the northern China than that in the southern China (Xing et al. 2013). Individuals of the same species in different habitats with large song variations could lead to breeding isolation (Bermúdez-Cuamatzin et al. 2011), which may be one of the mechanisms that the Chinese Bulbul has been able to use to maintain its genetic diversity. The Chinese Bulbul could be a good model species for investigating the microevolution of spreading population. Climate change and Chinese Bulbul distribution Conclusion The Chinese Bulbuls’ northward expansion was correlated with the temperature increase and habitat change related to the human growth, which might provide suitable habitat with rich food resources for this species. 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