•T h e E n d o f
•P e t r o l e u m E n g i n e e r i n g
as we know it
• D. NATHAN MEEHAN, PH.D., P.E.
The World Needs Energy - Energy Access Correlates Strongly With
Economic Development
Fundamental energy mix evolving
+22%
15,414
15,800
16,037
16,187
14,379
13,276
502
Renewables**
5,331
Nuclear
780
910
33%
0.6%
9,390
Hydro
1,315
Coal
4,061
3 732
Renewables growing 5x oil
1,252
• >70% of the new spend on
power generation will go to
renewables
Coal
1,597
Gas
3,549
3 204
61%
3 118
4 336
2000
2016
• Oil & Gas demand would peak in
next two decades, but the peak
will plateau for couple of
decades
• Gas demand = 2x coal. Key
transition fuel for the future
592
Oil
4,557
2020
Oil
3,573
2025
2030
2035
2040
41%
Total primary energy demand forecast (’00 –‘40),
Mtoe
Total primary
energy
demand
forecast up
22%
Fossil fuels still the largest
by ’40 but growth slowing
down
• Costs of renewables down 70%
since ’10 and cheaper than new
combined cycle generation
Competing fuel choices pushes
for competitiveness
Source: BHGE modeling based upon BP Even Faster EV Adoption scenario for 2040
May 20, 2021
4
Growth is under-estimated for renewables every single time…
Global forecast for solar installed capacity
Global forecast for wind installed capacity
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook – New Policy Scenario
May 20, 2021
5
• THE CHALLENGES OF WORKING IN OIL AND GAS
• Once seen as an excellent career, the popularity of working in
the fossil fuel industry has seen horrific declines.
• Reasons include layoffs amid cyclical demand for people, lack
of transferrable skills for highly specialized petroleum
engineering jobs, climate change and the industry’s role in
GHG emissions, a belief in a declining role for oil and gas in
the energy future and industry focuses on costs and
efficiencies.
• And of course, “fracking”
• EXAMPLES OF DECLINING ENGINEERING DISCIPLINES
• Demand for mining engineers has fallen dramatically during my professional
career.
• Mining engineering salaries once were among the highest.
• Global mining activity has grown steadily while mining engineering
employment has fallen in the US AND abroad.
• Only 14 universities still have programs and graduated only 500 in 2014.
Steady declines since then to about 200 graduates today.
• Commodity prices for Sn, Al, Cu and Fe impact demand much as oil and gas
prices do.
• Cr and rare earth oxide mining is growing but relatively tiny part of total mining
activity.
• NOT ALL ENGINEERING JOBS HAVE IMPROVED
• Even more disastrous has been the fate of textile engineering
• 1975 vs today
• Global textile production nearly 5x times 1975 levels but only one US
University retains a degree program.
• Average salaries for all textile engineers is about the entry-level
salary for other engineering disciplines.
• Textile engineering's demise mirrors that of the US textile industry,
which has seen most manufacturing leave the US for China, Vietnam
and other lower cost countries.
• IMPACT ON EDUCATION
• The end of “training”
• Supply chain, big data, nanotechnology, advanced material sciences,
smart systems, sustainability, carbon management… there is no room in
undergraduate engineering programs
• Today’s students increasingly digitally savvy and ready to up their game.
• Education evolves slowly and (should?!) focus on the core principles and
fundamentals
• G&G disciplines no longer hire BSc degrees. Perhaps MSc degrees will
become the new standard.
• Continuous learning more important than ever.
Not all engineering jobs have improved
• Aerospace engineering is also flat.
• Architectural engineering and nuclear engineering are flat to down.
•
Textile,
• COMMON DENOMINATORS?
• Textile, mining, aerospace and nuclear engineering are
all closely associated with just one industry.
• Dislocation or decline in that industry will lead to large
layoffs and many of the "best and brightest“ minds
entering other fields.
• Some degrees like architectural engineering and even
architecture have declined due primarily to increasingly
sophisticated tools which do much of their work.
• HOW WILL “BIG DATA” AND AI IMPACT YOUR JOBS?
• Leverage vs automation
• Automation vs augmentation
• Adapt or be left behind
The Need to Decarbonize the Energy System is Beyond Dispute
Overwhelming Scientific Evidence
Overwhelming Observational Evidence
Overwhelming
Global
Engagement
6 Million People
Worldwide
42.6 in Paris
Early October 2019
Early October 2019
The Need to Decarbonize the Energy System is Beyond Dispute
Overwhelming Scientific Evidence
•
•
The red shaded areas are
the chance of exceeding
different temperatures
above pre-industrial levels
using the cumulative
emissions concept
Source: Jackson et al
2015b; Global Carbon
Budget 2015
The Good News: To Limit Warming to ~2oC, About 4% per Year
Reductions in Emissions Will be Needed
Fuel Switching Works!
Natural Gas Consumption and
Production, BCF
U.S. Gas
35000
6,5
6
30000
CO2 Emissions
25000
20000
5,5
5
Natural Gas Production 4,5
4
15000
3,5
10000
3
CO2 Emissions Gtonnes/year
The Unconventional Gas Revolution
Even a Low Price on Carbon Works!
Average carbon intensity (gCO2e/MJ)
25
20
15
Offsite emissions
Transport
Misc.
VFF
Processing
Production
Drilling
Exploration
Net lifecycle emissions
10
5
0
-5
Canada
84
Avg. CI (g CO2eq./MJ)
2.8
19.6
Denmark
15
Norway
120
Romania
210
Ukraine
127
Italy
22
USA
824
Kazakhstan
190
Turkmenistan
24
Turkey
117
Iraq
43
Algeria
93
Mexico
204
Trinidad
and
Tobago
63
Venezuela
251
Libya
34
Ghana
2
Chad
13
Egypt
351
Pakistan
63
KSA
33
Brunei
18
Sudan
40
Thailand
56
Malaysia
79
Cameroon
48
Gabon
69
Indonesia
482
Angola
78
Republic of
Congo
42
Kuwait
18
Argentina
232
Australia
202
Iran
Bahrain
1
35
Qatar
12
30
71
KSA
UAE
27
25
20
15
10
5
Denmark
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
Ghana
Bahrain
Brunei
Italy
Norway
Qatar
Azerbaijan
Equatorial Guinea
China
Kuwait
UAE
Romania
Angola
Poland
United Kingdom
Turkey
Colombia
India
Vietnam
Argentina
Ecuador
Australia
Russia
Kazakhstan
Mexico
Chad
Brazil
Egypt
Libya
Republic of Congo
USA
Oman
Ukraine
Nigeria
Pakistan
Malaysia
Iraq
Gabon
Sudan
Trinidad & Tobago
Indonesia
Iran
Turkmenistan
Canada
Cameroon
Algeria
0
Venezuela
Avg. CI (g CO2eq./MJ)
Vietnam
33
India
179
Oman
138
Equatorial
Guinea
13
Brazil
267
China
619
Iran
79
Nigeria
207
Colombia
364
Ecuador
123
Russia
1,688
Azerbaijan
44
UK
182
Iraq
Ukraine
Egypt
Venezuela
Indonesia
Chile
Nigeria
Iran
Chad
Australia
Vietnam
New Zealand
Oman
Angola
Kazakhstan
Russian Federation
Mexico
United Kingdom
Ghana
Argentina
United States
Bahrain
Qatar
Brazil
China
Canada
Kuwait
United Arab Emirates
Azerbaijan
Saudi Arabia
Norway
2015 Gas flaring intensity by country
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Gas flaring intensity (scf/bbl)
350
400
2016 Flaring Bcf/D
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
Egypt
Oman
Malaysia
Angola
Mexico
Nigeria
Algeria
United…
Venezuela
Iran
Iraq
Russian…
0
1
2
3
Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (IEA)
(per year)
2x GOP
Current Global Oil
Production
~ 30 Bbbls/year
Current CCS - ~30 Mt CO2/year
• PETROLEUM ENGINEERS VITAL FOR ENERGY TRANSITION
• Develop new oil and gas resources that are less carbon
intensive
• Eliminating flaring and methane leakage
• Removing coal use by dint of economic leverage
• Massive need for carbon capture and storage
• Driving energy efficiencies
• Leveraging big data/AI to efficiently recover discovered
resources
• Develop net zero emissions opportunities for fossil fuels