Estimating the gap between carbon sink and carbon sources and develop scenarios to predict India’s contribution to global warming A report submitted for CH-320 Seminar -III Bachelor of Technology in Chemical Engineering Done by Priyanshi Bijgane 2018CHB1054 Under the guidance of Dr. Himanshu Paliwal Assistant Professor, Department of Chemical Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Ropar Indian Institute of Technology Ropar Department of Chemical Engineering May 2020 1. Introduction to the problem Carbon is an element that is essential to all life on Earth. Carbon makes up the fats and carbohydrates of our food and is part of the molecules, like DNA and protein, that make up our bodies. Carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, is even a part of the air we breathe. It is also stored in places like the ocean, rocks, fossil fuels, and plants. Today the level of carbon in the atmosphere is increasing at an alarming rate and showing its ill-effects in different forms like global warming, acid rain, ocean acidification, etc so it becomes extremely important to see how much we are as individuals are contributing to it and then how we only can help to bring the change. This paper discusses the definition and importance of carbon sink and sources followed by the gap between them. It also presents a scenario developed by The SHELL and TERI to reach the net zero-emission by the end of 2050. 2. Methods used to investigate the case and theory For the completion of the presentation and report for the course CH320, I majorly relied on the internet and various data sources like our world in data and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA). ● Carbon Sink and Carbon Sources Carbon is present in many forms around us and it is in a constant state of movement from place to place. It is stored in its reservoirs and keeps moving between these reservoirs through a variety of processes like photosynthesis, respiration diffusion in oceans, etc. And this movement of carbon from one reservoir to another is known as the carbon cycle. This cycle helps in the balance of the caron on earth and it also helps in maintaining stable climate conditions. Ideally, the carbon cycle would keep Earth’s carbon concentrations in balance, moving the carbon from place to place and keeping atmospheric carbon dioxide levels steady. However, the carbon cycle is changing because of human activity and additional sources created by humans. Carbon Sinks: A carbon sink is any reservoir, natural or otherwise, that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical compound for an indefinite period and thereby lowers the concentration of CO2. And the process by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is known as carbon sequestration. Carbon sinks can be natural or artificial. There are 3 big carbon sinks and these are 1. Plants Green plants play a huge role in controlling CO2 levels, because of the Photosynthesis process. It uses solar radiation energy, or sunlight, to convert carbon dioxide and water into glucose and oxygen. Photosynthesis equation: 6 H2O (water) + 6 CO2 + sunlight energy --> C6H12O6(glucose)+ 6 O2 (oxygen) Sequestered carbon is then accumulated in the form of biomass, deadwood, litter, and forest soils. India ranks 10th in the list of most forested nations in the world with 24.56%(807,300km2) of forest and tree cover. 2. Ocean The oceans play a critical role in capturing CO2 from the atmosphere. Around 25% of all CO2 emissions are absorbed by the ocean, making it one of the world's largest 'carbon sinks’. Carbon is naturally stored in the ocean either by solubility pumps or biological pumps. Solubility pump or diffusion helps CO2 to get dissolved in the upper layer of oceans and Biological pump which is driven by the animals of the oceans helps carbon to dissolve to the greater depth of the ocean. 3. Soil Because Not all of the CO2 that plants suck up for photosynthesis is needed for food The excess goes down through their roots and feeds organisms that live in the soil. Carbon from the roots and leaves of dying plants is also captured in soil. So, plants are the primary way that CO2 is transferred to soil. Figure 1: Natural carbon sinks; Forest, Ocean, and Soil Artificial sinks include Landfills, ocean fertilization, artificial carbon sequestration. Carbon Sources Carbon sources are any natural or artificial production site of carbon and/or any chemical compounds composed of carbon, such as carbon dioxide and methane. The burning of fossil fuels, forest fires, animal respiration, and plant degradation are all sources of carbon. Also, a forest is also considered to be a carbon source if it releases more carbon than it absorbs. Natural carbon sources include wildfire, respiration, volcanoes, decomposition, etc and Artificial carbon sources include industries, transportation, land-use change, soil cultivation, biomass burning, etc. ● The gap between carbon sink and sources and India’s steps to reduce it. Ideally, the continuous flow of carbo from its sources to sinks would have balanced the net carbon concentration in the atmosphere but due to the introduction of numerous manmade carbon sources, there is an imbalance in what we are producing and what is being sequestrated in the sinks and hence creating a gap between carbon sink and sources. In the year 2019 India produced around 3 billion tons of CO2 [1] and for the past years, it has been increasing continuously while only 0.3 billion tons of it, is being absorbed from the atmosphere. That is only about 11.5 % of the total emissions. And if we talk about the world then Currently, gross anthropogenic CO2 emissions are around 45 gtons per year, while gross anthropogenic CO2 removals are around 6 gtons per year. The figure below represents the current scenario of the carbon movement in our atmosphere. And if we want to achieve balance we have to somehow bring the emission level down to that of removal or we can increase the holding capacity of carbon sinks. But we can only do artificial sequestration to a limit, like in the case of the ocean, in excess uptake of CO2 it gets saturated and become acidic, and also it is not good for the aquatic animals. So to reduce and then eliminate this gap we have to work on bringing the emission level down to that of removal. Figure 2: Representation of carbon movement in the atmosphere What government had done to reduce this gap? According to the second Biennial Update Report (BUR) submitted by India in Dec 2018 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) [2], India is working to reduce this gap, and here are some major highlights of that report. ➢ Total annual GHG emissions have increased from 2.13Bt of CO2 e (1.88Bt with LULUCF) in 2010 to 2.61 Bt of CO2 e in 2014 (2.31 Bt with LULUCF). ➢ Solar installed capacity in India has increased by about 9 times from 2.63 Gigawatt (GW) to 23.28 GW between March 2014 and August 2018. ➢ The share of non-fossil sources in the installed capacity of electricity generation increased from 30.5% in March 2015 to 35.5% in June 2018. ➢ More than 312 million LED bulbs have been distributed till October 2018 under the ‘Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA) program. Replacement of incandescent and CFL bulbs by LED bulbs has resulted in energy saving of about 40 billion kWh and a reduction of 33 MtCO2 per year (as in October 2018). ● Global Warming and India’s contribution to it. Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere. According to NOAA's 2020 Annual Climate Report the combined land and ocean temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade since 1880;(1.12 degree C) however, the average rate of increase since 1981 (0.18°C) has been more than twice that rate. It causes extreme weather conditions, increased wildfires and can also cause diseases like dengue and malaria. Global warming is the outcome of The Green House Effect. The pictorial representation of the greenhouse effect is shown below(figure 3). Figure 3: The Green House Effect Figure 4: Comparison of CO2 Emission According to data from 2009 India is the world's third-biggest emitter of CO2 after China and the United States – pushing Russia into fourth place(Figure 4). We emit about 3 gigatons (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases each year which is 7% of global emissions(1.9 tons per capita). To the total emission, there is 73% Energy Sector, 16% Agriculture, 8% IPPU, and 3% Waste sector. Climate change hasn’t happened in a day. It is the result of historical emissions over one hundred years. The US has 25% of historical emissions; the EU has 22% of historical emissions; China has 13% and India has only 3%. ● INDIA: TRANSFORMING TO A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS ENERGY(NZE) SYSTEM Next is the scenario developed by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and Shell Companies in India [3]. It examines the ways with a proper timeline to fully decarbonize the energy sector by 2050 and has taken Electricity, Hydrogen and, Bioenergy as key fuels. Electrification, Energy efficiency, and Removal of unavoidable emissions are the three main fields to be worked upon. To convert this scenario into reality will require an equal contribution of government policy, investors, society, and sector cooperation. 3. Results from the investigation The alarming carbon emission and the disaster caused due to it has put us in a situation where an immediate solution is needed. A net zero-emission is the idea of reaching a zero-carbon emission by the end of 20-30 years and the following three fields came out to be most important to work upon to convert this scenario into reality. 1. Electrification. A complete phase-out of conventional energy is needed and electrification of all the sectors plays a huge role in reaching a net zero emission. The introduction of affordable and efficient electric vehicles for the transportation sector, electric arcs for industries, and electrical pumps and tractors for the agriculture sector are presented as the solution in this scenario. 2. Energy efficiency Increasing energy efficiency ensures less fuel and energy consumption and eventually will lead to less emission. Ministry of Power and Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) had introduced multiple schemes for increasing the energy efficiency in every sector and some of them are Energy Conservation Building Code 2017 and Perform Achieve and Trade [4]. 3. Removal of unavoidable emissions. ❑ The NZE scenario has residual emissions of 1.3 billion tonnes in 2050, primarily from industry and heavy transport. To achieve net-zero emissions there should be more techniques to sequester the remaining carbon emissions. ❑ Technologies like Carbon Capture and Storage and Carbon Capture and Use emerge as an efficient solution for that [5]. These technologies are a process of capturing the carbon from unavoidable point source emissions and then after liquefication can be store permanently or can be used for other purposes. 4. Discussion of the results India’s government is working on reaching its goals of the Paris Agreement [6] and continuously introducing new policies and schemes to encourage energy-efficient processes and greater use of electric vehicles in India. But India has a long way to go in terms of electrification of every sector. 65.53% of India’s total population falls under rural areas and their livelihood comes from agriculture only but there they are facing electricity problems even today which will reluct the electrification of the agriculture sector. And the second thing is the awareness factor, people don’t actually know the severeness of the problem, or they don’t know how much they are putting themselves in danger just by using a regular diesel vehicle so until they don’t know the depth of the problem they will not be willing to be a part of the solution. Firstly, we should work on people awareness by incorporating such a course in children’s compulsory courses or organizing campaigns and highlighting this carbon level data and its side effects on news channels then only we can achieve this goal by coming all of us together. 5. Conclusions From the review of this report, it can thus be concluded that every individual has a role to play in contributing to a change. Whenever possible, try to plant trees, use electrical vehicles or bicycles, use LEDs. And as Chemical Engineers we should work on making every existing or new process more efficient and develop new sequestration technologies. Also, the electric vehicles which we are using in India are based on the US drive cycle and their road conditions so to make these vehicles more efficient and affordable Chemical Engineers should work on making vehicles on drive cycles in India. 6. References [1] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions [2] https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202013#:~:text=The%202020%20Northern%20H emisphere%20land,the%20fifth%20highest%20on%20record. [3] https://www.teriin.org/press-release/net-zero-emissions-indias-energy-system-2050-tech nologically-possible-highly [4] https://beeindia.gov.in/content/pat-3 [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_capture_and_storage [6] https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-to-meet-its-paris-agreement -commitments-ahead-of-2030-pm-narendra-modi/articleshow/81351882.cms#:~:text=%2 2India%20is%20well%20on%20track,below%202005%20levels%20by%202030.
