BFW2751 Derivatives 1 S1, 2021 Lecture Week 4 Interest Rate Forwards and Futures Chapter 6 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 1 Lecture Objectives Understand how Forward Rate Agreements (FRA), Eurodollar futures and Bank‐Accepted Bill (BAB) futures work. Know how to hedge short‐term interest rate risk using these instruments Identify hedge strategies using FRA and IRFs 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 2 Lecture Outline • Day count conventions • Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) • Hedging with FRAs • Eurodollar Futures • Hedging with Eurodollar Futures • Bank Accepted Bill Futures (BAB Futures) • Hedging with BAB Futures 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 3 Some Preliminaries Day Count Conventions: • Day count defines the way in which interest accrues over time. • Generally, we know the interest earned over some reference period, but would like to know the interest earned over the sub-period of the reference period [ especially interest earned for the time period elapsed during the holding period, which always become a fraction of the whole]. • Day counts are usually expressed as X/Y. • When calculating interest between two dates t1 and t2, X defines the way in which the number of days between the two dates is calculated, and Y defines the way in which the total number of days in the reference period is measured. r1 5/6/2021 X t1 Y BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee t2 r2 4 Day-Count Convention Interest-rate computations in these instruments is based on the money-market convention. In the US, the amount of interest payable per dollar of principal is computed as where ℓ is the given interest rate (typically the Libor rate). d is the actual number of days in the investment horizon. Great Britain and Australia use Actual/365. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 5 Starting Question to ponder Your firm plans to borrow $10Million for 1 year in 6 months time and is concerned about interest rate risk. What derivative position should you take to hedge the risk? A. A position that makes money if 1‐year rate goes up in 6 months’ time, OR B. A position that makes money if 1‐year rate goes down in 6 months’ time Since your firm plans to borrow $10 mill not now but after 6 months for a period of 1 year, the downside risk is that the interest rate may go up between now and in 6 months’ time. How do you lock in the today’s interest rate? FRA? How to hedge the increase in interest rate in the interest rate futures market? Eurodollars Futures? 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 6 Starting Question to ponder Your firm plans to lend $10 Million for 1 year in 6 months time and is concerned about interest rate risk. What derivative position should you take to hedge the risk? A. A position that makes money if 1‐year rate goes up in 6 months’ time, OR B. A position that makes money if 1‐year rate goes down in 6 months’ time Since your firm plans to lend $10 mill not now but after 6 months for a period of 1 year, the downside risk is that the interest rate may go down between now and in 6 months’ time. How do you lock in the today’s interest rate? FRA? How to hedge the increase in interest rate in the interest rate futures market? Eurodollars Futures? 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 7 Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) A forward rate agreement(FRA) is an OTC agreement that a certain rate will apply to a certain principal during a certain future time period Formally, an FRA is an agreement to exchange: Interest calculated at a fixed rate RK For interest computed at a floating rate RM, the actual market rate (typically LIBOR–see next slide) On a specified principal amount L Over a specified reference period [T1, T2] in the future, And which is settled in discounted form at T1, or equivalently, undiscounted form at T2 T0 T1 T2 (Settlement date) 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 8 LIBOR : London Interbank Offer Rate A reference interest rate, produced daily by the British Bankers Association, designed to reflect the rate of interest at which banks are prepared to make large wholesale deposits (i.e. lend) with other banks. LIBOR is quoted in major currencies for maturities up to 12 months (AUD LIBOR ceased to be quoted in 2013) The rates are determined by demand and supply for that particular maturity E.g. If more banks want to borrow US dollars for 3 months than lend US dollars for 3 months, the 3‐month LIBOR rate will increase. LIBOR rates are used in loan or bond pricing. E.g. a borrower taking out a floating rate loan may be charged an interest rate of LIBOR + say 0.5% 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 9 FRA Convention For simplicity, in the materials on FRA, rates are all expressed with a compounding frequency reflecting the length of the period to which they apply (if T2‐T1 = 0.5,the rates are expressed with semi annual compounding. If T2‐T1 = 0.25, rates are with quarterly compounding etc.) It should also be noted that Long position in the FRA pays fixed, receives floating. Short position in the FRA receives fixed, pays floating. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 10 FRA Terminology A FRA is described by the start and end dates of the underlying investment period (stated in months). For example, a "3 x 6 FRA" refers to a FRA whose underlying investment period begins in 3 months' time and ends in 6 months' time. We use the general notation T1 x T2 FRA, with the understanding that T1 and T2 are measured in months. It should also be reiterated that: Long position in the FRA pays fixed (AR), receives floating (SR). Short position in the FRA receives fixed (AR), pays floating (SR). k (fixed rate) is the Agreement Rate (AR) payable by buyer in long position ℓ (floating rate) is the Settlement Rate (SR) receivable by the buyer in long position If SR > AR = buyer in long position receives from seller in short position pays the difference If SR < AR = buyer in the long position pays to seller in short position the difference 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 11 FRA Payoffs Consider the payoffs to a long position from a T1 x T2 FRA with fixed rate k . Suppose the actual Libor rate at time T1 (for the period [T1 , T2]) is ℓ . Then, the fixed payment due at T2 is = The floating payment received at T2 is = The difference between these amounts is = Thus, at time T1, the payoff received by the long FRA position is (Note that P is the notional principle and d is the number of days) 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 12 FRA Payoffs: An Example Consider a 4 x 7 FRA with a spot date of March 15. That is, the investment period begins on July 15 and ends on October 15. Given that if there are 92 days between July 15 and October 15. Suppose that The principal amount P in the FRA is $5,000,000. The fixed rate on the FRA is k = is 5% or 0.05. We compute the payoffs to a long FRA position. The payoffs to the short FRA are the negative of these payoffs. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 13 FRA Payoffs: An Example (Cont’d) Suppose the 3-month Libor on July 15 is ℓ = 5.40%. Then, the difference ℓ — k = +0.40%. Applying this to the principal amount, we obtain [ SR (ℓ ) > AR (k)] the long position in FRA will gain from short position. Therefore the value of the difference will be as at T2 will be: 5,000,000 x [0.004 x (92 / 360)] = $5,111.11 Discounting this quantity back to July 15th at the Libor rate ℓ , we obtain This is the amount the long position receives from the short position on July 15. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 14 FRA Payoffs: An Example (Cont’d) Alternatively, suppose the 3-month Libor on July 15 is ℓ = 4.70%. Then, the difference ℓ — k = — 0.30%. Applying this to the principal amount, we obtain [ SR (ℓ ) > AR (k)] the long position in FRA will pay the difference to the short position Therefore the value of the difference will be as at T2 will be: • Discounting this quantity back to July 15th at the Libor rate ℓ , we obtain • Now, the long position must pay the short position the amount $3,787.83 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 15 Hedging with FRAs Suppose you can borrow at Libor and wish to hedge interest rate risk on a borrowing over a future period [T1, T2 ]. You can utilize a FRA for this purpose. Here is the strategy: Enter into a long T1 x T2 FRA today. If the SR > AR; Long position is set to gain at T1: Reinvest the proceeds received from the FRA at T1 at the then-prevailing Libor rate for maturity at T2. If the SR < AR; Long position is set to pay at T1 At T1 , borrow the required amount at the then-prevailing Libor rate for repayment at T2 . Intuitively, you are borrowing floating and are being compensated by the FRA for the difference between floating and fixed, so net you are paying fixed. The reinvestment of the FRA proceeds is required because the FRA is settled in discounted form. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 16 An Example on Hedging with FRA’s It is April 5 today, and consider a corporation need to borrow $5,000,000 for 3 months from August 5 to November 5. Since the corporation is going to borrow, its downside risk is that floating interest rate may go up between now and August 5. It enters into a long 4 x 7 FRA today and borrows the $5 mil at LIBOR on August 5. The fixed rate (AR) in the FRA is k= 5.00% We consider two possible outcomes for the LIBOR (ℓ ) on August 5, (a) ℓ = 5.50% (b) ℓ = 4.50% Show how by hedging with FRA, the corporations net cash flows are the same in either case. The 3-months between August 5 and Nov 5 will have 92 days. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 17 An Example on Hedging with FRA’s a) As the ℓ > k the corporation which is in a long position is set to receive the difference i.e. 5,000,000 x [( 0.055 – 0.05) x 92/360] = $6,388.89 Discounting it back to August 5: 6,388,89 / [1+ (0.055) 92/360] = $6,300.34 Investing the $6,300.34 received at the Libor rate of 5.50% for 92 days will yield 6,300.34 x [1+ (0.055) x 92/360] = $6,388.89 However the corporation now must pay interest on the $5 mil borrowed for the 3 months at Libor rate of 5.50% 5,000,000 x (0.055) x 92/360 = $70,277.63 By offsetting the cash flow from the FRA, the net outflow will be $70,277.63 – $6,388.89 = $63,888.74 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 18 An Example on Hedging with FRA’s (ii) As the ℓ < k the corporation which is in a long position is set to pay the difference i.e. 5,000,000 x (0.045 – 0.05) x 92/360 = - $6,388.75 Discounting it back to August 5 at 0.045 = - $6,388.75 / [1+ (0.045)x 92/360] = - $6,316.11 By borrowing this amount for 3 months at 4.50% -$6,316.11 x [1+ (0.045) x 92/360] = -$6,388.74 However the corporation now must pay interest on the $5 mil borrowed for the 3 months at Libor rate of 4.50% 5,000,000 x (0.045) x 92/360 = $57,499.88 The total cash outflow for the corporation will be: 6,388.74 + 57,499.88 = $63,888.62 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 19 Eurodollar Futures It is a dollar deposited in a US. or in a foreign bank outside the US. The Eurodollar interest rate is the interest rate on such Eurodollar deposits. The most popular interest rate futures is the three-month Eurodollar futures The interest rates are based on the London Inter-bank offer rates (LIBOR) Futures contract that allows you to trade on the interest that will be paid (by someone who borrows at the Eurodollar interest rate) on USD 1,000,000 for a future 3-month period. Allows a trader to speculate on future 3-month Eurodollar rates, or hedge against changes in future 3-month Eurodollar rates. Usually trade for March, June, September and December delivery out to 10 years, short maturity contracts trading for months other than these. Delivery is only by cash settlement. No physical delivery. Third Wednesday of the delivery month. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 20 Eurodollar Futures • Quotations: • Quote (Q) = 100 – interest rate • Example: if the Q = 92, means that the 3-month interest rate is 100 – 92 = 8% • Interest rate is % p.a. compounded quarterly, actual / 360 day count convention. • Interest rates are based on LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) Eurodollar contracts are designed so that a 1 basis point (0.01) change in the futures price, results in a $25 gain or loss per contract. Quoted price increases by 1 basis point Interest rate has dropped by 1 basis point long (short) positions will gain (lose) $25 per contract. • $1,000,000 x 0.0001 x 0.25 = $25 One contract x one bp. x per quarter 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 21 Eurodollar Futures • Quotations: Eurodollar contracts are designed so that a 1 basis point (0.0001) change in the futures price, results in a $25 gain or loss per contract. Quoted price increases by 1 basis point Interest rate has to drop by 1 basis point long (short) positions will gain (lose) $25 per contract. • $1,000,000 x 0.0001 x 0.25 = $25 / contract One contract x one bp x per quarter 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 22 Eurodollar Futures The CME defines the value of the underlying position in the IRF contract as 10,000 x [ 100 – 0.25 x (100 – Q)] Assuming Q is 98.00 10,000 x [ 100 – 0.25(100 – Q)] 10,000 x [ 100 – 0.25(2.00)] 10,000 x 99.5 = 995,000 • If you look at this equation closely, it is nothing more that discounting the $1m deposit by the quote Q. • Could write the above as $1,000,000 – [$1,000,000 x 0.25 x [1– (Q/100)]] 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 23 Eurodollar Futures Simple Example: The quoted settlement price of 99.28 on Sept 4, corresponds to a underlying value of 10,000 x [100 – 0.25 x (100 – 99.28)] = $998,200 The final contract settlement price is 99.50 on Dec 4, corresponds to an underlying value of 10,000 x (100 – 0.25 x (100 – 99.50) = $998,750 If long you gain $998,750 - $998,200 = $550 If short you lose $998,200 – $998,750 = ($550) 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 24 An Example Suppose it is $100,000,000 between now price for June 8% or 0.08). now January 2020 and you anticipate a three-month borrowing need for beginning June 2020. You wish to hedge the interest rate risk changes and June 2020 using Eurodollar Futures. Suppose the Eurodollar futures contract is currently 92.00 (implied Eurodollar interest rate is 100 – 92.00 = What will be the hedged net interest payout for $100,000,000 borrowing in September 2020 if: a) The Libor rate turns out to be 8.25 in June 2020? b) The Libor rate turns out to be 7.75 in June 2020 ? 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 25 An Example on outcome (a) The cash market Eurodollar Futures Market Now: January 2020 Now: January 2020 Do nothing Short 100 June 2020 Eurodollar futures contracts at index price of 92.00 Effectively at an interest rate of 8.00% p.a. for 3 – months June 2020 June 2020 Borrow $100 million at 8.25% for 3 months Long the 100 June 2020 Eurodollar Futures contracts at 91.75. Effectively at 8.25% p.a. for three months. (1,000,000 x 0.25) = 250,000 = 250,000 x ( 0.0825 – 0.0800) = 250,000 x 0.0025 Net gain per contract is $625 per contract; 100 contract = 100 x 625 = $62,500 Invest this gain for 3 – months at 8.25% p.a. September 2020 September 2020 Interest payout for the $100 mil borrowing at 8.25% for three months 100,000,000 x (0.0825 x 0.25) = 2,062,500.00 Offset by the gains from EF = 63,789.06 Net payout 1,998,710.94 The 3 –month investment will yield = 62.500 x (1+ 0.0825 x 0.25) = $63,789.06 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 26 An Example on outcome (b) The cash market Eurodollar Futures Market Now Now Do nothing Short 100 June 2020 Eurodollar futures contracts at 92 Effectively at an interest rate of 8.00% p.a. for 3 – months June 2020 June 2020 Borrow $100 million at 7.75% Long the 100 June 2020 Eurodollar Futures contracts at 92.25. Effectively at 7.75% p.a. for three months. (1,000,000 x 0.25) = 250,000 = 250,000 x ( 0.0775 – 0.0800) = 250,000 x ( - 0.0025) Net loss per contract is $625 per contract; 100 contract = 100 x 625 = - $62,500 Borrow this payout for 3 – months at 7.75% p.a. September 2020 September 2020 Interest payout for the $100 borrowing at 7.75% for three months 100,000,000 x (0.0775 x 0.25) = 1,937,500.00 Add the EF loss outflow = 63,710.93 Net payout 2,001,210.93 The 3 –month borrowing needs to be paid 62,500 x [1+ (0.0775 x 0.25)] =63,710.93 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 27 Bank Accepted Bills (BAB) Futures 90-day BABs are the most common Traded on Australian Stock Exchange (previously Sydney Futures Exchange). Is the Australian counterpart of Eurodollar futures, ranking in top 10 interest rate futures in the world. The underlying: 90-day bank accepted bill which is a commercial bill whose acceptor is a bank, a common short term financing instrument (see next slide for details) Contract unit: A$1M face value 90-day BAB Contract months: March, June, Sep, Dec up to 20 quarter months ahead Quote: 100-yield, just like Eurodollar futures Settlement: physical delivery (unlike Eurodollar futures) A key difference from Eurodollar futures lies in the computation of the payoff / settlement. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 28 BAB Futures: payoff function • Continuing with our notation, let k denote the BAB rate implied by the futures price F0 at the time of entering into the contract. Let ℓ denote the BAB rate prevailing in June 2021 Ft. • Note that BAB rate/yield changes daily. • That is F0=100 – k*100 and Ft=100 - ℓ *100 • The payoff to a long BAB futures contract can also be written as: 𝐹𝑡 − 𝐹0 = 1,000,000 1+ℓ 365 90 − 1,000,000 1+k 365 90 (𝑘−ℓ)(365) 90 = 1,000,000 (1+ℓ 365 )(1+k 365 ) 90 90 • The payoff to a short BAB futures contract is (ℓ−k)(365) 90 • 1,000,000 (1+ℓ 365 )(1+k 365 ) 90 90 • You can see hedging using BAB futures is not perfect 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 29 Example: Payoff to BAB futures • On Feb 4, 2021, an investor wants to lock in the interest rate that will be earned on AUD5 million investment for 90 days starting on March 16, 2021. The investor goes long on 5 BAB futures at 97.63. On March 16, 2021, the 90 day BAB yield is 2%. Compute gain/loss • Therefore, k = 2.37% and ℓ = 2.00% • 𝐹𝑡 − 𝐹0 = 5 𝑋 1,000,000 1+ℓ 90 365 − 1,000,000 90 1+k 365 H = FT – F0 = 5[ 1,000,000 / (1 + 0.02 * 90/365)] – [ 1,000,000 / (1+ 0.0237* 90/365)] 5 [1,000,000/1.0049] – [1,000,000 / 1.0058] 5 (995,092.80 – 994,190.24) 5 (902.56) = $4,512.80 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 30 Example: Payoff to BAB futures • 1,000,000 (𝑘−ℓ)(90/365) 90 90 (1+ℓ 365 )(1+k 365 ) = 5,000,000[ (0.0237 – 0.02) (90/365)/ (1 +0.02(90/365) (1 + 0.0237(90/365)] = 5,000,000 [0.000912 / (1.004932) (1.005844)] = 5,000,000 [0.000912/1.010804) =5,000,000(0.000903) = $4512.80 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 31 Comparing Interest Rates Futures 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 32 Summary In this lecture we have discussed the day-count conventions in estimating floating rate values. The conventions of Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) and the use of FRA in hedging against fixed over floating rate were also discussed. This lecture has introduced Eurodollar futures which are two of the four key moneymarket derivatives based on Libor. We have also examined the Australian version of the Eurodollar futures, the 90day BAB futures. 5/6/2021 BFW2751 S1 2020 AP Jothee 33