MGFC30H -- Introduction to Derivatives Markets Instructor: Office: Office hrs: Phone: Prof. Jason Z. Wei IC 372 MO 3-4:30pm, WE 5-6pm 416-287-7332 Sept. – Dec., 2018 L01: WE 12-2pm, IC 208 L02: WE 3-5pm, IC204 Email: wei@utsc.utoronto.ca COURSE DESCRIPTIONS Derivatives, as a class of financial securities, have become an integral part of modern finance. Nowadays, introductory and intermediate-level courses on futures and options are standard offerings in most business schools. Meantime, the demand for finance professionals with a sound understanding of derivative products and markets has been increasing, especially on Wall Street and Bay Street. Financial institutions (e.g., banks) and institutional investors (e.g., pension funds) regularly deal with the trading, valuation, and accounting of derivative securities. The co-op terms of many UTSC BBA students involve duties related to derivatives, especially for the placements with banks, CPPIB and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. This course covers the fundamentals of futures and options, with four main objectives. First, it introduces students to the basic valuation models such as the cost-of-carry model and the BlackScholes model. Just as the discount cash flow framework allows us to value bonds and stocks (by discounting coupons and dividends), the basic valuation models introduced in this course allow us to arrive at an intrinsic value for a derivative security. Second, we demonstrate how derivative securities can be used to enrich investment strategies and enhance risk management (e.g., portfolio insurance). Third, the course exposes students to the most recent developments in the derivatives market, and identifies trends that will likely shape the future of the derivatives industry. Fourth, the course enlightens students with the practical aspect of the derivatives markets. Through realtime trading of derivative securities via the Rotman Portfolio Manager (RPM), students will be able to apply their classroom knowledge to real-world investing. By the end of the course, students will have mastered the basic knowledge and skills necessary to pursue an entry level career in the derivatives industry or pursue advanced studies of the subject. The co-requisite is MGFC10 (Intermediate Finance) and hence the prerequisites are identical to those of MGFC10. Those who have taken RSM435H (Futures and Options Markets) on St. George Campus or MGT438H from UTM are not allowed to take this course. Management, 1265 Military Trail, Toronto, ON, M1C 1A4, Canada www.utsc.utoronto.ca/mgmt 1 REQUIRED TEXTBOOK: Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 9th Edition, by John Hull (Pearson, 2017). ISBN10: 0-13-408324-5, or ISBN-13: 978-0-13-408324-7. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION: Attendance: Assignments (3): Simulation: Report: 6% Portfolio: 4% Bonus: 2% Mid-term exam: Final exam: 3% 12% 10% 25% (Date: Oct. 24 - Temporary) 50% The following notes apply to the above evaluation scheme. First, no late assignments will be accepted for marking since the solutions are posted right after the deadline. Second, although only three assignments are to be handed in for marking, one extra assignment will be given for practice. Only Assignments 1, 3 and 4 are for marking. Assignment 2 is for practice only. Students do not have the option of handing in any three of the four assignments. You must hand in Assignments 1, 3 and 4. Third, for those who fail to write the midterm exam, the midterm weight (25%) will be added to the final exam (75% in total). There will be no makeup midterm exam. Fourth, to encourage continuous efforts and to reward significant improvement in performance throughout the course, the midterm exam weight will be partially shifted to the final exam should the final exam turn out to be better than the midterm. The bigger the improvement, the larger the amount of shift in weight. If the percentage improvement is larger than 30%, then all the midterm weight of 25% will be shifted to the final. Specifically, let “m” and “f” stand for the midterm and final marks respectively in percentage and suppose f > m. Then the amount of shift = [min(f – m, 0.30)/0.30]3/2 × 25%. For instance, if the final is 82% and the midterm is 61%, then the shift is [0.21/0.30]3/2 × 25% = 14.64%. In this case, the midterm is worth 10.36% and the final is worth 64.64%. To continue the example, if the final is 86% or higher, then the entire midterm weight is shifted to the final. Finally, the purpose of assigning 3% of the course weight to attendance is to discourage students from skipping classes. Past experiences indicate time and again that the consequence of missing classes is far more detrimental than students would like to believe. Barring unforeseen, extraordinary events, students should attend each and every lecture. Attendance will be taken at least three times throughout the term, with dates to be randomized. Each absence will result in a loss of 1%, and the total penalty will be capped at 3%. For instance, if attendance is taken four times in the term, and a student is absent at each attendance check, then he/she will lose 3%. On the other hand, if attendance is taken five times, and a student is present at the first three attendance 2 checks and only absent at the last two checks, then he/she will still lose 2%. In other words, I count the total number of absences. Given the limited lecturing hours, it is very difficult to cover in detail all the relevant topics in class. To better utilize the classroom time, students are encouraged to come prepared for each lecture by reading ahead. Active learning in the form of pre-class reading and in-class questioning is extremely beneficial. Class participation is encouraged. SELF-STUDY AND REVIEW Aside from reading ahead, students are also encouraged to review each lecture right after the class and clear away all the questions before the next lecture. The benefits are enormous. To facilitate this process, end-of-chapter questions will be assigned to each topic, in addition to the many in-class numerical examples. Full solution keys are provided for all assigned questions. Students are encouraged to fully utilize the office hours offered by the TA and the instructor. COMMUNICATIONS AND COURSE MATERIAL DISTRIBUTIONS All of the study materials including assignments and important announcements will be posted on the portal. Students are encouraged to frequently check the postings. SIMULATION — RPM INVESTMENT CHALLENGE The ultimate purpose of the simulation is to introduce realism in learning. A group of nomore-than six students will perform the task of setting up and managing a derivatives portfolio (students may also form smaller groups as they wish, but the minimum size should be two). Through trading derivatives on formal exchanges, students are expected to learn and appreciate the workings of the derivatives markets, and to apply their knowledge and wisdom in the investment world. The investment vehicle will be the Rotman Portfolio Manager (RPM). Please visit http://rpm.rotman.utoronto.ca for details. Please also download the RPM advanced user guide: http://financelab.rotman.utoronto.ca/documents/RPM_Students_Advanced_User_Guide.pdf. Be sure to read it before the simulation starts. For a quick-start guide, please download: http://financelab.rotman.utoronto.ca/documents/RPM_Students_Quick_Start_Guide.pdf. (The two files are also available on the portal.) There are a 15 minute-long Quick Start Tutorial video for first-time users and a 60 minute-long full video explaining the software features. The investment game will start on September 24, 2018 (Monday) and end on November 23, 2018 (Friday), for a duration of nine weeks. Each account will be endowed with $1,000,000Cdn fake money, and participants will have access to stocks (North American as well as international), options, futures, futures options, bonds, and currencies. In this simulation, students are required to trade only derivatives: options, futures and options on futures. 3 There will be two training sessions offered by the Finance Trading Lab, one on Monday, September 17 and the other on Wednesday, September 19. The two sessions are identical and run from 5:30pm to 6:30pm. Students may choose the session at their convenience. The training session is essential since it will teach you the basics of derivatives trading and prepare you for the start of simulation on September 24. Everyone should attend regardless of your group size. We will take attendance and a 1% bonus will be offered to those who are present. For your convenience, the Finance Trading Lab has created a resource page: http://guides.library.utoronto.ca/MGFC30. Overall Instructions and Requirements Each group will maintain a trading account with an initial endowment of $1,000,000Cdn. Students are allowed to trade derivatives only. The position limit is 50%, meaning that you cannot invest more than 50% of your capital in a single security. All groups will be subject to the same investment restrictions set out by RPM. Specifically, transaction costs are $2/contract for futures and options. The borrowing and lending rates are, respectively, 0.5% above and 0.5% below the overnight LIBOR rate. To register your account, follow these steps: 1. Download and install the software from http://rpm.rotman.utoronto.ca/ 2. Form your group and submit your group membership to me, with each member’s name, student number, email, and phone number (deadline is September 18). 3. Register your group account on the following webpage: http://rpm.rotman.utoronto.ca/. The Class Code is MGFC30_2018f, and the Class Password is “hedgefund.” Please don’t register more than one account per group. Note: no adjustment will be made to group membership once finalized on September 18. You must make up your mind beforehand. This is especially important for those who want me to assign you to a group (i.e., I form a group for you). Please indicate your preference (if any) beforehand. Do not come back to me and ask for group re-assignment after the September 18 deadline. You will be evaluated based on two items: a written report (6%) and the ending portfolio value (4%). Clearly, much more weight is placed on the report, since students are not supposed to be overly concerned about the portfolio value. The written report should be no more than six pages long (excluding tables, figures, etc), double-spaced, and in regular sized fonts. There is no specific format required for the report. However, a good report will clearly stipulate the investment objective and corresponding strategies; discuss the implementation of the strategies; justify the strategies with respect to the assessment of the market conditions (e.g., gold price movements); provide insights gained from the simulation; and so on. A group may in the end lose a lot of money, but if it can clearly justify its objectives and strategies and implement meaningful trades, then the group can still get a high mark on the report. In other words, in the end, it is the experience and learning that count. 4 To make the simulation more exciting, 4% is assigned to the portfolio value. Here, the objective is very simple: get the highest return possible. The evaluation is purely based on portfolio value, regardless of the strategies. The 4% is to be awarded to the best performing portfolio, but I do have my own bar set for this, and it is going to be subject to my sole discretion. For instance, if the best performing portfolio in our class earns only a 7% return, then I will be very hesitant to give 4% to this group. Notice that I do not set an absolute bar. This is in the students’ interest, because I am not prepared to give a zero to any group. Finally, to reward superior performance, a 2% bonus will be handed out if the ending portfolio is above $4,000,000. For instance, if a group gets a perfect mark on the report, and has an ending portfolio value of $4,500,000, then it will receive 12% from the simulation. Note: the bonus is handed out ONLY WHEN the portfolio value is above $4,000,000. In other words, you won’t get it or a fraction of the bonus if your ending portfolio value is, e.g., $3,950,000. The following are specific requirements: 1) Complete account registration and make at least one transaction by the end of September 25. Failure to do so will lead to a loss of 1%, regardless of the final portfolio performance. 2) Make at least five (5) transactions by the end of week 4 (i.e., October 19). Failure to do so will lead to a loss of 1%, regardless of the final portfolio performance. 3) Make at least 12 transactions by the end of week 6 (i.e., November 2). Failure to do so will lead to a loss of 1%, regardless of the final portfolio performance. (Therefore, you may actually lose 3% toward your total course grade if you fail to meet all of the three requirements.) 4) Execute a minimum of 20 transactions by the end of the simulation. When/if this condition is not met, the group will receive a zero for the simulation even if the group has met requirements 1) to 3). Several caveats are in order: Portfolio performance will be based solely on the closing value at the end of the simulation. The history of portfolio performance does not matter as far as the 4% is concerned. But the history will matter for your report. For instance, if your portfolio has been doing well until the last week when a big mistake makes a devastating blow to your portfolio, I still consider that you have done well overall. Please do not exercise options since you will end up with a stock position, but you are not allowed to trade stocks in this simulation. You should sell the options if you want to close the position. 5 Several popular resources for stock analysis and trading strategies: http://www.barchart.com http://www.marketwatch.com http://www.bnn.ca/ Enjoy and good luck!!! Resolution of Team Work Conflict Once in a while, I receive complaints from students that certain of their group members are not shouldering their share and hence not contributing enough to the group. In all cases, I leave the resolution to the group, for managing group dynamics is part of the learning. To facilitate a successful resolution in case of dispute, I have borrowed the idea of Peer Evaluation from a colleague. Please see the Peer Evaluation Form at the end of this course outline. Of course, only those groups that have an issue with uneven workload (perceived or real) may consider filling out the form. Note: the form is valid only with signatures from all members of the group. Academic Support The Department of Management, in collaboration with the UTSC library, will be providing academic research support in the IC Building. To refine your research skills or to learn more about various scholarly resources, please contact the Librarian for Management and Economics students. Stephanie Perpick Librarian, Department of Management IC368 416-208-2987 Stephanie.perpick@utoronto.ca Office hours by appointment The English Language Development Centre (ELDC) helps students develop the critical thinking, vocabulary and academic communication skills essential for achieving academic and professional success. Personalized support includes: RWE (for academic writing); Communication Cafés (oral); Discussion Skill-Building Cafés; Vocabulary Cafés; seminars/workshops; personal ELD consultations; drop-in sessions. http://ctl.utsc.utoronto.ca/eld/ The Writing Centre (TWC) offers invaluable services to students (learn to become a better writer!) and offers many different kinds of help: drop-in sessions, individual consultations, workshops, clinics, and online writing handouts. http://ctl.utsc.utoronto.ca/twc/ 6 Academic Misconduct Students should note that copying, plagiarizing, or other forms of academic misconduct will not be tolerated. Any student caught engaging in such activities will be subject to academic discipline ranging from a mark of zero on the assignment, test or examination to dismissal from the university as outlined in the academic handbook. Any student abetting or otherwise assisting in such misconduct will also be subject to academic penalties. 7 PLANNED COURSE SCHEDULE Topic I. INTRODUCTION − − II. III. IV. V. Sept 12, 19, 26 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Oct 3, 17 9, 10, 11 Basics Trading Strategies Factors Affecting Option Prices Bounds for Option Prices Early Exercise of American Options Oct 24 BINOMIAL TREES Oct 31 12, 18 Nov 7, 14 13, 15, 16 17 Nov 21 22, 23, 24 − − − − − One Period Binomial Tree Two-Period Binomial Tree Multi-Period Binomial Tree Binomial Tree for Options on Indexes, Currencies and Futures − Binomial Tree for a Dividend Paying Stock THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL History Review of Probability Theory Modelling Stock Price The Black-Scholes Model EXOTIC AND INNOVATIVE OPTIONS − − − − − − − − − − VII. 1 Mid-Term Exam − − − − VI. Sept 5 Definitions Purpose of Futures Markets Structure and Specification of Futures Contracts Operation of Margins Forward and Futures Price Determination Interest Rate Futures Hedging with Futures OPTION TRADING STRATEGIES AND PROPERTIES OF STOCK OPTIONS − − − − − Chapter Introduction Risk versus financial engineering FORWARDS AND FUTURES − − − − − − − Date Range-forward contract Chooser option Barrier option Look-back option Shout option Asian option Option to exchange one asset for another Innovative swaps Credit derivatives Weather derivatives APPLICATIONS AND REVIEW Nov 28 8 Detailed Outline and Pages of Text Corresponding to Each topic Topic I. Pages INTRODUCTION − − 1-19 Introduction Risk versus financial engineering Quiz: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.6. II. FORWARDS AND FUTURES − − − − − − − Definitions Purpose of Futures Markets Structure and Specification of Futures Contracts Operation of Margins Forward and Futures Price Determination • Preliminaries • Cost of Carry Model • Forward on a Security without Cash Income • Forward on a Security with Known Cash • Stock Index Futures • Forward and Futures on Currencies • Futures on Commodities • Futures Price as a Predictor of Future Spot Price Interest Rate Futures • Preliminaries • Forward Rate Agreement (FRA) • Treasury Bill Futures • Day Count Conventions • Treasury Bond Futures Hedging with Futures • General Issues • Optimal Hedge Ratio 1-7 24-27 29-35, 217-218 81-91 127 107-112 113-118 63-69, 118-120 121-124 124-127 118, 128-130 81-92 95-97 (Not in book) 136-138 139-143 49-55 60-62 Quiz: 2.1, 2.5, 3.1, 3.3, 3.5, 4.1, 4.5, 4.7, 5.2, 5.5, 5.6, 5.7, 6.1, 6.2. III. OPTION TRADING STRATEGIES AND PROPERTIES OF STOCK OPTIONS − − − − − Basics Trading Strategies • single option holdings • straddle • strip • strap • strangle • bull spread • bear spread • butterfly spread Factors Affecting Option Prices Bounds for Option Prices Early Exercise of American Options • without dividends • with dividends 202-215 249-253 261-262 262-263 262-263 263-264 253-255 255-256 258-259 227-230 232-239 239-243 243-245 Quiz: 9.1, 9.4, 9.6, 10.1, 10.2, 10.3, 10.4, 10.5, 10.6, 11.2, 11.3, 11.6. 9 Detailed Outline and Pages of Text Corresponding to Each topic Topic IV. Pages BINOMIAL TREES − − − − − One Period Binomial Tree Two-Period Binomial Tree Multi-Period Binomial Tree Binomial Tree for Options on Indexes, Currencies and Futures Binomial Tree for a Dividend Paying Stock 268-274 274-281 281-282, 391-398 398-401 401-404 Quiz: 12.1, 12.3, 12.5, 18.2, 18.3. V. THE BLACK-SCHOLES MODEL − − − History Review of Probability Theory Modelling Stock Price • Black-Scholes assumption of returns • expected return • estimating volatility • The Black-Scholes Model • assumptions • model • Black-Scholes model with dividends • options on stock indexes • options on currencies • futures options • delta and delta hedging • insurance with traded put options • insurance with synthetic put options • insurance with index futures 293 (Not in book) 294-296 297-298 298-301 301-302 304-306 309-311 328-331, 333-335 331 344-348, 350-354 359-364 (Not in book) 382-385 383-384 Quiz: 13.2, 13.4, 13.5, 13.6, 15.1, 15.2, 15.6, 16.3, 17.1, 17.2, 17.3, 17.7. VI. EXOTIC AND INNOVATIVE OPTIONS − − − − − − − − − − Range-forward contract Chooser option Barrier option Look-back option Shout option Asian option Option to exchange one asset for another Innovative swaps Credit derivatives Weather derivatives 332-333 480 480-482 482 482-483 483 483 485-491 (only casual read) 496-500, 505-507 515-520 Quiz: 22.1, 22.3, 24.1, 24.2. VII. APPLICATIONS AND REVIEW 1-598 : -) 10 Peer Evaluation Form for Workload/Credit Redistribution This form is to facilitate a negotiated settlement among group members when dispute arises concerning relative workload and contribution. It is modelled after similar forms used in some other Management courses. It is recommended that the group meets as soon as some members are perceived/believed to shirk. Very often, the meeting itself with frank discussions can clear the issue (e.g., the perceived shirking may simply be due to some misunderstanding/miscommunications or special personal circumstances). At any rate, if all members agree that the workload is not evenly distributed, then the form may be signed with credit redistribution. Each group member is endowed with 100 points and the redistribution will lead to a re-scaling of the group grade. All members must sign the form in order for it to be effective. To illustrate, suppose there are five members in the group and the group receives 80% on the project. Further suppose that Member A in the group agrees to receive only 70% of the group grade since he/she failed to contribute enough. In this case, A’s mark will be (0.7)80% = 56%, while that for other four members will be (430/4)80% = 86%. To avoid an adjusted mark exceeding 100%, the scaled-up mark will in general be max{100%, G(100n–S)/(n-m)}, where G is the group project grade, n is the group size and S is the total points among the m shirking members. To illustrate further, suppose the group receives 90% on the project and suppose A agrees to lose 20 points and B agrees to lose 30 points, then the marks for A and B will be (0.8)(90%) = 72% and (0.7)(90%) = 63%, while the mark for the remaining three members will be max{100%, 90%(500–150)/(5– 2)}=max{100%, 105%} =100%. Name Points Signature Total points 11