Country characteristics
World population: 7.800.000.000
U.S. population: 328.239.523 (Census)
Global cases: 94.544.494
U.S. Cases: 23.758.856
Global deaths: 2.023.658
U.S. Deaths: 395.851
References:
U.S. Census Bureau (2019), American Community Survey. Retrieved from
https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=population&tid=ACSDT1Y2019.B01003&hidePreview=true
Dong E, Du H, Gardner L (2020), An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time, Lance Infect Dis; published online February 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1.
COVID-19 Vaccines Authorized for Emergency Use:
Approval of vaccine by: FDA (U.S. Food and Dug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER)
Vaccine
Approved
or
licenses
PfizerBioNTech
COVID-19
Vaccine
No
Moderna
COVID-19
Vacinne
No
Authorized
for
emergency
use
Yes;
December
11, 2020
For use in
…
Yes;
December
18, 2020
Individuals
16 years of
age and
older
Individuals
18 years of
age and
older
Sources: FDA. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines
Projected delivery
Vaccine
PfizerBioNTech
COVID-19
Vaccine
Moderna
COVID-19
Vacinne
Number of
ordered doses
200 million for
$3,9 billion
(with the
option to
acquire up to
400 million
additional
doses)
Initial order
Projected
delivery
100 million doses for $1.95 billion with
the option to acquire up to 500 million
additional doses (July 22, 2020)
Source:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/pressrelease/press-release-detail/pfizer-andbiontech-announce-agreement-usgovernment-600
200 million
(with the
option to
acquire up to
300 million
doses of the
Moderna
vaccine)
Source: https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html
Possible second order
100 million additional doses
(December 23, 2020). Consistent
with the original agreement the
government will pay $1.95 billion for
the additional doses
Projected delivery
Expects to deliver
the full 200 million
doses by July 31,
2021
 70 million of
the additional
Source:
doses by June
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press30, 2021
release/press-release-detail/pfizer The remaining
and-biontech-supply-us-100-million30 doses to be
additional-doses
delivered no
later than July
31, 2021
Continued delivery
through the end of
June 2021
Cost-benefit analysis
1. Specify current and alternative policies;



Vaccinate according to recommendation by Center for Disease Prevention and […] (baseline option)
Vaccinate according to the principle of first come, first served
Vaccinate according to risk category
2. Specify whose costs and benefits count;
Costs:
 Development costs
 Costs of vaccines and materials (assumption: two doses to obtain protective immunity)
 Costs of administration
 Transport costs
Benefits
 The product of mortality
 The value of statistical life
 The fraction that is lost on average due to Covid-19 deaths
Assumptions:
 Look at current data and compare it with existing conditions, age, and so on
 Then assume that the trend continues
 Compare it across policies
Scenarios:
 Three different scenarios: Enough supply to vaccinate 20%, 40% and 60%
3. Catalogue relevant impacts (∆𝑿);
4. Predict impacts over the time horizon of policies;
5. Monetize all impacts (multiply ∆𝑋 with shadow prices) and calculate benefits;
6. Discount benefits and costs to obtain present values;
7. Compute the present value of net benefits;
8. Perform sensitivity analysis;
9. Recommend.