Analysis of Cost Estimation (sj – coj – dj)(1-φ) Net profit after taxes (sj – coj – dj)φ Income taxes (φ is generally 35% of gross profit) dj Depreciation charge sj Total income from sales $ Total capital investment (without land) Operations for complete project W, working capital investment for project Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project Coj Costs for operations (not including depreciation) (sj – coj – dj)(1-φ) Gross profit sj-coj Gross profit (before depreciation charge) Total capital Investment (without land), T=W+Ax+V Net profit = Total income – all expenses Repayment of borrowed capital Other investments V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Stockholders’ dividends Aj Net cash flow from the project including depreciation charge Aj = (sj – coj – dj)(1-φ) + dj =(sj – coj)(1-φ) + djφ Capital direct plant expenses source and sink utilities raw materials, labor, indirect expenses administrative salaries, product sales, distribution costs Other capital input Common stock Loans Bonds Preferred stock (sj – coj – dj)(1-φ) Net profit after taxes (sj – coj – dj)φ Income taxes (φ is generally 35% of gross profit) dj Depreciation charge sj Total income from sales $ Other investments Other capital input Common stock Coj Costs for W, working capital investment for project Total capital investment (without land) Repayment of borrowed capital Operations for complete project operations (not including depreciation) sj-coj Gross profit (before depreciation charge) Raw materials and labor Total capital Investment (without land), Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project T=W+Ax+V V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Capital source and sink (sj – coj – dj) Gross profit Stockholders’ dividends Aj Net cash flow from the project including depreciation charge Aj = (sj – coj – dj)(1-φ) + dj =(sj – coj)(1-φ) + djφ Loans Bonds Preferred stock Cash flow for industrial operations Estimation of Capital Investment Total capital investment (without land) Total capital investment (without land) W, working capital investment for project Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Some of the capital investment can occur as a lump sum. Total capital Investment (without land) T = W + Ax + V Fixed capital Investment Ax + V The flow of cash for the fixed capital investment is usually spread over the entire construction period. Because income from sales and cost of operations may occur on an irregular time basis, a reservoir of working capital must be available to meet these requirements. Cumulative cash position – effects of cash flow over full life cycle of industrial operation (time value of money was neglected) Here the total capital investment is repaid in 5 years Factors Affecting Investment and Production Costs The engineer must be aware of actual prices for raw materials and equipment, company policies, government regulations and others • Sources of Equipment • Price fluctuations • Company policies Must keep up to date with prices and wage fluctuations: Monthly Labor Review (US Bureaus of Labor Statistics) • Operating time and rate of production • Government policies Direct effect! Major effect on the profits! Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates: http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_data.htm e.g., Raleigh Durham area: http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_6640.htm If equipment stands idle for an extended period, raw materials and labor costs are usually low; HOWEVER, many other costs (fixed costs) like maintenance, protection, depreciation, continue even though the equipment is not active. Not producing a product – no producing revenue Downtime should be kept to a necessary minimum (main source of poor profitability in process plants). Breakeven chart for chemical processing plant 0.025 Dollars $ 0.020 0.015 Breakeven point 0.010 st t co Tot duc o r al p e m co n I al t To s) t uc d ro p ll (a Maximum gross earnings Gross earnings Fixed Costs 0.005 Loss 0 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 Rate of Production, Kg/s 0.2 Government Policies Law and regulations that have a direct effct on industrial costs • Export tariff regulations • Depreciation taxes • Income tax rules • Environmental and safety regulations See also http://www.itepnet.org/corp00an.pdf Total capital investment (without land) Total Capital Investment (without land) W, working capital investment for project Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Total capital Investment (without land) T = W + Ax + V Fixed capital Investment Ax + V Capital: “a stock of accumulated wealth” Capital is savings that may be used. Used for example in investment to promote the production of other goods Total capital investment (without land) Working capital (WC): The capital necessary for the operation of the plant W, working capital investment for project Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Total capital Investment (TCI) (without land) T = W + Ax + V Fixed capital Investment Fixed-capital Investment (FCI): The capital needed to supply the required manufacturing and plant facilities Ax + V Indirect cost Direct cost (WC/TCI) = varies with different companies Most chemical plants used 10-20% (it may increase to as much as 50% for companies producing products of seasonal demand) Total capital investment (without land) Fixed Capital Investment (FCI) W, working capital investment for project Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Fixed capital Investment Ax + V Indirect cost: Construction overhead (field office, supervision expenses, contractor’s fees, etc) and for all plant components that are not directly related to the process operation: • Processing building • Administrative and other offices • Warehouses • Laboratories • Shops Direct Costs: Capital necessary for the installed process equipment with all components that are needed for complete process operation and also: • Site preparation • Piping • Instruments • Insulation • Foundations • Auxiliary facilities Working Capital (WC) Total capital investment (without land) Total amount of money invested in: W, working capital investment for project Ax, nonmanufacturing fixed capital investment for project V, manufacturing fixed capital investment for project Fixed capital Investment Ax + V Total capital Investment (without land) T = W + Ax + V 1. Raw materials and supplies carried in stock (*) 2. Finished products in stock 3. Semi-finished products being manufactured 4. Accounts receivable 5. Cash kept on hand for monthly payment of operating expenses (salaries, wages and raw materials purchases) 6. Accounts payable 7. Taxes payable (*) Usually 1-month supplies valued at delivery prices Types of Capital Cost Estimates 1. Order-of-magnitude estimate (ratio estimate) based on similar previous cost data (+/- 30%) 2. Study estimate (factored estimate) based on knowledge of major items of equipment (+/- 30%) 3. Preliminary estimate (budget authorization estimate or scope estimate) based on sufficient data to permit the estimate to be budgeted (+/- 20%) 4. Definitive estimate (project control estimate) based on almost complete data but before completion of drawing and specifications (+/- 10%) 5. Detailed estimate (contractor’s estimate) based on complete engineering drawings, specifications and site surveys (+/- 5%) Cost Indexes An index value for a given time showing the cost at that time relative to a certain base time. index value at present time Present cost = original cost × index value at time original cost was obtained Ok if less than 10 years We can project costs forward by using extrapolated values of an index or an expected inflation rate. Most common indexes: • Marshall and Swift all-industry • Process-industry equipment indexes • Engineering News-record construction index • Nelson-Farrar refinery construction index • Chemical Engineering plant cost index Cost Indices • Marshall & Swift Equipment Cost Indexes – all-industry equipment index - arithmetic average of indexes for 47 different types of industrial, commercial, and housing equipment – based on an index value of 100 for the year 1926 – account for cost of machinery and major equipment plus costs for installation, fixtures, tools, office, and minor equipment • Engineering News-Record Construction Cost Index – indicates variance in labor rates and materials costs for industrial construction – one of three basis’ used: 100 for 1913, 1949 or 1967 • Nelson-Farrar Refinery Construction Cost Index – petroleum industry construction costs – basis - 100 for 1946 Cost Indices Chem. Engr. Plant Cost Index (CEPCI) • construction costs for chemical plants • equipment, machinery and supports, 61%; erection and installation labor, 22%; buildings, materials, and labor, 7%; engineering and supervision, 10% • major components subdivided as: fabricated equipment, 37%; process machinery, 14%; pipe, valves, and fittings, 20%; process instruments and controls, 7%; pumps and compressors, 7%; electrical equipment and materials, 5%; structural supports, insulation and paint, 10% • basis - 100 for 1957-1959 Cost Indices Chem. Engr. Plant Cost Index (CEPCI) CAPCOST® • CAPCOST® is a Microsoft Excel program for estimating bare module, total module, and grass roots costs of complex chemical plants. CHEMICAL ENGINEERING WWW.CHE.COM JANUARY 2006 CHEMICAL ENGINEERING CHEMICAL ENGINEERING WWW.CHE.COM JANUARY 2006 Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index from 1950 to 2005 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1940 y = 2E-07x6 - 0.0028x5 + 13.738x4 - 35882x3 + 5E+07x2 - 4E+10x + 1E+13 R2 = 0.9933 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 YEAR CEI 1980 261.2 1981 297 1982 314 1983 316.9 1984 322.7 1985 325.3 1986 318.4 1987 323.8 1988 342.5 1989 355.4 1990 357.6 1991 361.3 1992 358.2 1993 359.2 1994 368.1 1995 381.1 1996 381.7 1997 386.5 1998 389.5 1999 390.6 2000 394.1 2001 394.3 2002 395.6 2003 401.7 2004 444.2 2005 468.2 Update Aug 2006 Final - CHEMICAL ENGINEERING PLANT COST INDEX Aug 2006 Detailed breakdown for Aug 2006 (final) 510 CEPCI Equipment Heat Exchangers and Tanks 602.3 560.9 Process Machinery Pipe, valves and fittings 556.2 731.7 Process Instruments Pumps and Compressors 437.2 788.3 Electrical Equipment Structural Supports & Misc. 414.2 637.7 Construction Labour 312.9 Buildings Engineering & Supervision 475.2 351.9 Other cost indexes for materials and labors for various types of industries are published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Monthly Labor Review http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm Current Labor Statistics "Current Labor Statistics" from the print edition of Monthly Labor Review Pre-formatted data tables BLS data for use in databases and spreadsheets "Current Labor Statistics" from the print edition of Monthly Labor Review The print edition of Monthly Labor Review regularly features 56 tables of current labor statistics. These tables can be downloaded and printed for reference. (PDF 624K). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Employment and Unemployment Tables Historical Data for the "A" Tables of the Employment Situation Release (Household/CPS data) Historical Data for the "B" Tables of the Employment Situation Release (Establishment/CES data) Tables from Employment and Earnings (Household/CPS data) Annual average data Monthly data Quarterly data Tables from Employment and Earnings (Establishment/CES data) Monthly data Occupational Employment and Wage Data Employment Projections Tables http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm Occupational Labor force (demographic) Education and training Earnings, occupations Prices and Living Conditions Tables Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), All Items, Indexes and Annual Percent Changes from 1913 to the present International Price Indexes—Historical Tables Consumer Expenditure Survey data Standard Bulletin (e.g. Age of reference person, Income before taxes) Cross-tabulated Bulletin (e.g. Age of reference person by income before taxes) Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) All Consumer Units Compensation and Working Conditions Tables Employment Cost Index, Historical Listing (TXT) (PDF 500K) National Compensation Surveys Productivity Tables Industry Labor Productivity Data Tables Industry Multifactor Productivity Data Tables Foreign Labor Statistics Tables International Comparisons of Foreign Labor Statistics International Price Indexes—Historical Tables Cost Index and Depreciation Schedules http://www.dor.state.nc.us/publications/cost_archive/99archive/costindex.html Cost Components in Capital Investment Capital investment is the total amount of money needed to supply the necessary plant and manufacturing facilities plus the amount of money required as working capital for operation of the facilities. Example 6-1: Make a study estimate of the fixed-capital investment for a process plant if the purchased-equipment cost is $100,000. Use the ranges of process-plant component cost (Table 6-3) for a process plant handling both solids and fluids with a high degree of automatic controls and essential outdoor operation. Do not include land. Purchased Equipment The cost of purchased equipment is the basis of several predesign methods for estimating capital investment. Equipment: 1. Processing equipment 2. Raw materials handling and storage equipment 3. Finished-products handling and storage equipment. Sizes and specifications determined from equipment parameters fixed or calculated along with the material and energy balances Most accurate method: obtain firm bids from fabricators and suppliers. Second best: cost values from the file of past purchase orders (must be corrected with the appropriate cost index ratio) Estimating Equipment Cost by Scaling Predictions can be made using the six-tenths factor rule Cost of equipment a = Cost of equipment b × X 0.6 Capacity of equipment a X = Capacity of equipment b f.o.b. prices! Use only in the absence of other information. Do not use beyond 10-fold range of capacity Purchased-equipment prices are usually quoted as f.o.b. (free on board, meaning that the purchaser pays the freight). Pre-design estimates od delivery allowance: 10% of the purchasedequipment cost is recommended Check Example The six-tenths factor rule Typical exponents in the six-tenths factor rule Purchased-Equipment Installation (25-55%!!!) Involves costs for labor, foundations, supports, platforms, construction expenses, etc. There is wide variations of installation labor cost depending on equipment size. Instrumentation and Controls 8-50 % of the total delivered cost (taking 26%, this is about 5% of the total capital investment). Piping Includes labor, valves, fitting, pipe, support, etc. Can run as high as 80% of the total delivered cost (about 20 % of the total fixed capital investment). Electrical Systems 15-30% of the delivered purchased equipment cost (4-8 % of fixed capital investment) Buildings Buildings Including services, consist of labor, materials and supplies. Plumbing, heating, ventilation are included. Yard Improvements Fencing, grading, roads, sidewalks, railroad sidings, landscaping: 10-20% of the delivered purchased equipment cost (2-5 % of fixed capital investment) Service Facilities Utilities for supplying steam, water, power, compressed air and fuel. Also includes shop, first aid, cafeteria...30-80% of the delivered purchased equipment cost (55% on average for plant handling solid/liquids). This is equivalent to 8-20 % - 14% avg - of fixed capital investment) Health, Safety, and environmental Functions See previous table. This is an increasingly important issue. Pollution mitigation is sometimes the driving force for new process development Land Cost factor per acre as high as 30-50% between a rural district and highly industrialized area. Average land cost for industrial plants amount to 4-8% of the delivered purchased equipment cost (1-2 % of fixed capital investment) By law, land cost cannot be depreciated – not included in the fixed-capital investment. Engineering and Supervision Considered as an indirect capital; cost investment – approx. 30% of the delivered purchased equipment cost (8 % of fixed capital investment) Legal Expenses 1-3 % of fixed capital investment Construction expenses Indirect cost associated to temporary construction, and operation, construction tools and rentals, home office personnel, construction payroll, travel and living, taxes and insurance, and other construction overhead. 8-10 % of fixed capital investment. Contractor’s Fee 2-8% of direct plant cost or 1.5-6% of fixed capital investment Contingencies Unexpected events and changes (storms, floods, strikes, etc.) 5-15 % of fixed capital investment (8 % average) Methods for Estimating Capital Investment A: Detailed-Item Estimate B: Unit Cost Estimate C: Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost Less detailed information required! Less preparation time! D: Lang Factors for Approximation of Capital Investment Degree of accuracy decreases! E: Power factor Applied to Plant/Capacity ratio F: Investment cost per unit capacity G: Turnover ratio Methods for Estimating Capital Investment A: Detailed-Item Estimate Accuracy of +/- 5% Methods for Estimating Capital Investment B: Unit Cost Estimate For preparing definitive and preliminary estimates, requires detailed estimates of purchased price (quotation or index-corrected costs and published data) 10-20% accuracy ( ) ' + f H + f d f Cn = ∑ E + EL + ∑ f x M x + f y M L ∑ e e ∑ d n F specific delivered purchasednew equipment capital cost investment deliveredequipment labor cost specific material unit cost material labor unit cost per employeehours specific material quantity unit cost for engineering unit cost for drawings or specifications labor employee- Engineering hour for the employeehour specific material Construction / field expense factor (>1) number of drawings or specifications Methods for Estimating Capital Investment C: Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost Requires determination of delivered equipment cost 20-30% accuracy Cn = ∑ E + f E + f E + f E + ... + f E = E ∑ 1 + f + f + f + ... + f 1 2 3 n 1 2 3 n E is the delivered purchased-equipment cost fi are multiplying factors for piping, electrical, indirect costs, etc. (average % values presented in next table) see next table and textbook spreadsheet Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost (cont’d) Check Example Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost (cont’d) Cost & Evaluation Workbook accompanying Plant Design and Economics for Chemical Engineers, 5th edition The basis for all costs is Jan. 2002. 1. The sheets are intended for use in the sequence presented. However, any sheet may be by-passed so long as the information skipped is input manually where needed in subsequent sheets. Default values may be replaced by the user. 2. Purchased Equipment Costs may be obtained from the file "Equipment Costs,“ the graphs in the text, or otherwise, and entered manually into cell H12 on the Capital Inv.' spreadsheet. 3. On the sheet 'Capital Inv.' enter the estimated current total purchased cost of the process equipment. For the proposed plant type, copy the corresponding "Fraction of calculates and transfers results to appropriate subsequent sheets. 4. On the sheet 'Materials & Labor' enter the product prices and flowrates, the raw materials prices and flow rates, and the labor requirements and current ENR labor index. 5. On the sheet 'Utilities' the quantity of each utility needed annually must be entered in appropriate units. The total annual utilities cost is transferred to sheet 'Annual TPC'. 6. The 'Depreciation' sheet is used only if the user wishes to change the default (5-year MACRS) depreciation method. To make a change, copy the appropriate MACRS row to the 'Annual depreciation" row of sheets 'Evaluation' and 'Year-0 $', or, enter constant annual (straight line) value into depreciation row of those sheets. 7. On the 'Annual TPC' sheet, all values are calculated from information available on other sheets. The user may change defaults or enter preferred values. The calculated annual TPC is transferred to 'Evaluation'. 8. The sheet 'Evaluation' uses values from other sheets to calculate the common profitability measures. The user may change defaults, or enter desired values into the sheet. In particular, the user may change the default inflation rates in order to study their effects on profitability. All calculations in 'Evaluation' are made in current (i.e. inflated) dollars. Inflation adjustments are made from the time of the estimates. To make evaluations for periods of less than 10 years, leave unneeded columns blank. For periods greater than 10 years, insert columns as needed and copy from an existing year column into the new columns. Check equations for correct cell references. 9. A second evaluation sheet, 'Year-0 $', also is included. It is the same as sheet 'Evaluation', except that all the inflated $ values are converted to constant, year-0 dollars (as discussed in the text). This method is considered to reflect more realistically the effect of inflation on the profitability measures. The user may change the default inflation rates in order to study their impacts on profitability. Methods for Estimating Capital Investment D: Lang Factors for Approximation of Capital Investment To obtain order-of-magnitude estimates. Obtained by multiplying the equipment cost by some factor to approximate the fixed or total capital investment. D: Lang Factors for Approximation of Capital Investment (cont’d) Greater accuracy if a number of factors are used: ' Cn = f I E 1 + f + f p + f m + Ei + A F The three installation costs defined as follows: ( ) e f log f F = 0.635 − 0.154 log 0 .001 E ' − 0.992 ' + 0.506 v' E E ( ) e p log f p = − 0 .266 − 0 .014 log 0 .001 E ' − 0 .156 ' + 0 .556 ' E E ( ) t log f m = 0 .344 + 0 .033 log 0 .001 E ' + 1 .194 ' E E’ is the purchased equipment on an f.o.b basis, fI is the indirect cost factor (1.4), fF is the cost factor for field labor, fp the cost factor for piping materials, fm the cost factor for misellaneous items, Ei the cost of equipment already installed, A the incremental cost of corrosion-resistant alloy materials, e the total heat exchanger cost, fv the total cost of fieldfabricatd vessels, p the total pump plus driver cost and t the total cost of tower shells. Methods for Estimating Capital Investment E: Power factor Applied to Plant/Capacity ratio To obtain order-of-magnitude estimates. Obtained by relating the fixed-capital investment of a new process plant (Cn) to the fixed-capital investment of similar previously constructed plants (C) by an exponential power ratio (x): Cn = C × f e × R x fe is the cost index at the time of cost Cn to that at the time of C. Closer approximation: ( x Cn = f DR + I ) f is a lumped cost index factor relative to the original facility cost, D is the direct cost for previously installed facility I is the indirect cost for previously installed facility f is the product of a geographic labor cost index, area labor productivity index, and a material and equipment cost index: Check Example (2) Methods for Estimating Capital Investment F: Investment cost per unit capacity Methods for Estimating Capital Investment G: Turnover ratio Gross annual sales Turnover ratio = fixed - capital investment Turnover ratios range from 0.2 to 4 (rule of thumb for chemical industry: turnover ratio =1) The reciprocal of this ratio is the so-called capital ratio or the investment ratio. Instructions for file “EQUIPMENT COSTS” accompanying Plant Design and Economics for Chemical Engineers, 5th edition, Peters, Timmerhaus, and West 1. The opening sheet of the file EQUIPMENT COSTS is called CALCULATION PAGE. The column at the left lists equipment types alphabetically. The names used are the same as those on the cost figures in the text. CLICK a name to SELECT an EQUIPMENT TYPE. This brings up a panel in the upper right of the screen. 2. The upper right panel shows the text Figure # and title for the source of the cost data plus additional equipment specifications as needed. CLICK to SELECT the APPROPRIATE LINE. This brings up a panel on the lower right. 3. In the lower right panel input REQUIRED DESIGN PARAMETERS, as requested. An equipment number is requested, and must be supplied by the user in order for results to be transferred to the EQUIPMENT LIST. CLICK appropriate RADIO BUTTONS, if shown, to select discreet parameters, such as operating pressure and material of construction. When entries are complete, CLICK on CALCULATE. All calculated values are purchased costs unless otherwise noted. 4. The lower right panel shows the calculated cost of the item in $. "Add value" TRANSFERS the equipment information to the EQUIPMENT LIST. "Display Results" shows the EQUIPMENT LIST, and "Clear Results" deletes all EQUIPMENT LIST entries. The use of the button "Display CSV" is described below. 5. Upon clicking "Display Results," the user will be asked for a date, and then for the value of the Chemical Engineering (CE) Plant Cost Index. The default values are Jan. 2002 and CE index = 390.4 (the basis for the calculated costs). Any appropriate date may be entered; the CE index entered should correspond to that date; the index must be extrapolated for dates beyond the most recently available value. Costs shown on the EQUIPMENT LIST are updated with the index provided. Only one date and CE index may be used per session (the latest entered is applied to all costs). 6. At the top of the EQUIPMENT LIST, the user may enter project identification information. In the last column on the right of the EQUIPMENT LIST, the user may insert additional information about the equipment, such as a dimension or design pressure. 7. Return to the CALCULATION PAGE and continue, by repeating the foregoing steps, adding equipment until project costing is complete. 8. The EQUIPMENT LIST can be PRINTed. WARNING: EQUIPMENT LIST is not saved when the EQUIPMENT COST file is closed. 9. The EQUIPMENT LIST can be transferred to a spreadsheet as follows: a. Open a notepad. b. Click "Display CSV." Copy the resulting page and paste it in the notepad. c. Save the notepad file with a '.csv' extension (without quotes) to a convenient location. d. Open a spreadsheet application. The following instructions are for Excel. e. Click 'Data' -> 'Get External Data -> 'Import Text File.' f. Find and select the .csv file saved in step c. Make sure that you see all file types if it doesn't show up. g. Follow the instructions of the wizard. In step 2, check 'Other' and insert '#' (without quotes) into the box next to Other. 10. To continue with an economic analysis, the total Purchased Equipment Cost may be manually entered into cell H12 on the "Capital Inv." spreadsheet, or copied from the spreadsheet made in step 9.