MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS MODULE 1: FUNDAMENTALS MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS OF Managerial Economics The study of how to direct scarce resources in the way that most efficiently achieves a managerial goal. The key to making sound decisions is to know what information is needed to make an informed decision and then to collect and process the data Resources are anything used to produce a good or service, or achieve a goal. Decisions are important because scarcity implies trade-offs Manager Directs resources and behavior of individuals to achieve a stated goal. Has responsibility for his own actions and the actions of individuals, machines, and other inputs under the manager’s control, Effective Management 1. Identify Goals and Constraints - The first step to making sound decisions is to have well-defined goals. - Decision-makers faces constraints that affect the ability to achieve a goal. - Constraints are an artifact of scarcity. 2. Recognize the Nature and importance of Profits a. Accounting Profits - Total amount of money taken in from sales minus the dollar cost of producing goods or services. - Shows up in firm’s income statement. - Profits are a signal to resource holders where resources are most highly valued by society - AP = Total Revenue – Explicit Costs b. Economic Profits - Difference between total revenue and opportunity cost. - Opportunity cost is the explicit cost of a resource + the cost of giving up its best alternative Explicit cost – normal business costs (wages, rent, and cost of materials) Implicit cost – a cost that already occurred but not shown as a separate expense (loss of interest, foregone salary) EP = Total Revenue – Opportunity Costs The Five Force Framework (Michael Porter) - Can be used to identify state of competition and profitability of an - industry A tool to help managers see the big picture 1. Entry - Heightens competition and reduces the margins of existing firms in a wide variety of industry settings. - Formation of new companies, globalization strategies by foreign companies, introduction of new product lines by existing firms. 2. Power of Input Suppliers - Industry profits tend to be lower when suppliers have the power to negotiate favorable terms for their inputs. 3. Power of Buyers - Industry profits tend to be lower when customer or buyers have the power to negotiate favorable terms. - Buyer concentration and customer power are higher in industries that serve high volume customers 4. Industry Rivalry - The sustainability of industry profits also depends on the nature and intensity of rivalry among firms competing in the industry. - Rivalry is less intense in concentrated industries 5. Substitutes and Complements - Presence of close substitutes erodes industry profitability 3. Understanding Incentives - Incentives affect how resources are used and how hard workers work. - As a manager, you must have a clear grasp of the role of incentives within an organization and how to construct incentives to induce maximal effort from those you manage. - Individuals are often motivated by self-interest 4. Understanding Markets - For every buyer of a good, there is a corresponding seller - The power or bargaining position of consumers and producers are limited by 3 sources of rivalry that exist in economic transactions: a. Consumer-Producer Rivalry - Consumers attempt to negotiate low prices; Producers attempt to negotiate high prices. Consumers and producers attempt to ripoff each other. b. Consumer-Consumer Rivalry - Arises because of scarcity; consumers compete with each other for the right to purchase the available goods c. Producer-Producer Rivalry - - Only when multiple sellers of a product compete in the marketplace; producers compete with one another for the right to service customers The firms that offers the best quality product at the lowest price earn the right to serve the customers d. Government and the Market - When both producers and consumers find themselves disadvantaged in the market process, they attempt to induce government to intervene on their behalf; gov’t disciplines market process 5. Recognize the Time Value of Money - The fact that $1 today is worth more than $1 received in the future - The opportunity cost reflects the time value of money Present Value Analysis - Amount that would have to be invested today at the prevailing interest rate to generate the given future value. 1. Present Value of a Single Value - The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value of a future amount and conversely. - The present value of a future payment reflects the difference between the FV and OCW : - PV = FV = OCW - The higher the interest rate, the higher the OCW to receive a future amount, the lower the present value of the future amount - PV = FV when interest rate is 0% 2. Present Value of a Stream of Future Values - Present value of a future amount extended to a series of future payments 3. Net Present Value of a Project - PV of the income stream generated by the project minus the current cost of the project - If the NPV of a project is positive, it is profitable because the present value of the earnings from the project exceeds the current cost of project. - If the NPV is negative, it should be rejected because the cost exceeds the present value of the income stream the project generates. 4. Present Value of Indefinitely Lived Assets - Some decisions generate cash flows that continue indefinitely - Consider an asset that generates a cash flow from one to three - years for an indefinite period of time The asset generates a perpetual stream of identical cash flows at the end of each period 5. Present Value of a Firm - The value of the firm today is the present value of its current and future profits - Profit Maximization means maximizing the value of the firm, which is the present value of the current and future profits. - Maximizing Short-term profits may maximize long-term profits. If the growth rate in profits is less than the interest rate and both are constant, maximizing current profits is the same as maximizing long term profits. 6. Marginal Analysis - Optimal managerial decisions involve comparing the managerial benefits of a decision with the marginal costs - Marginal Benefits are the additional benefits that arise by using an additional unit of managerial cost variable. - Marginal Costs are costs incurred by using additional unit of the managerial cost variable. - Marginal Net Benefits of Q, MNB(Q), are the change in net benefits that arise from one unit change in Q. - Marginal Principle: to maximize net benefits, the manager should increase the managerial control - - variable up to the point where marginal benefits = marginal costs. B(Q) = Benefits C(Q) = Costs Manager’s objective to maximize net benefits: N(Q)= B(Q)-C(Q) MNB (Q) = MB(Q)-MC(Q) Choosing one option may mean you lose money because you turned down another alternative. These incremental costs are called opportunity costs. Incremental Cost/Revenues are additional cost/revenues that stem from a yes/no decision. MODULE 2: MARKET FORCES: SUPPLY AND DEMAND current purchases for purchases by stockpiling. future A. Demand The Law of Demand states that the price and quantity demanded are inversely related + P - QD, - P + QD Market Demand Curve. A curve indicating the total quantity of a good all consumers are willing and able to purchase at each possible price, holding all variables constant Consumer Surplus The value consumers get from a good but do not pay extra for. It shows manager how much extra money consumers would be willing to pay for a given amount of purchased product It is the area above the price paid but below the demand curve Demand Shifters Change in Quantity Demanded. Is a movement along the demand curve. Rightward shift is a demand increase Leftward shift is a demand decrease B. Supply The Law of Supply states that that the price and quantity supplied are directly related + P +QS, -P -QS Market Supply Curve. a curve indicating the total quantity of a good that all producers in a competitive market would produce at each price, holding all variables constant. 1. Income - A change in income shifts the entire demand curve. - Normal goods demand increases when income increases ( + I + NG, - I - NG) - Inferior goods demand increases when income decreases ( - I +SG, +I -SG) 2. Price of Related Goods - Shift the demand curve for a good - Substitutes are goods which a price increase (decrease) in one good leads to a demand increase (decrease) for another. - Complements are goods which a price increase (decrease) in one good leads to a decrease (increase) in the other. 3. Advertising and Consumer Taste - An increase in advertising shifts the demand curve to the right - Informative advertising provides information about product - Persuasive Advertising alters the underlying taste of consumers by making them perceive it as “the thing” to buy. 4. Population - Population increases the market - Shifts the demand curve to the right 5. Consumer Expectations - If consumers expect future prices to be higher, they will substitute Supply Shifters Change in Quantity Supplied. A movement along the supply curve wherein: Rightward shift is a supply increase Leftward shift is a supply decrease 1. Input Prices - As production costs change, the willingness of producers to produce output changes ( +IP QS, -IP +QS) 2. Technology or Government Regulations - Changes that reduce production cost like technology increase quantity supplied 3. Number of Firms - As more firms enter an industry, more output are available at each given price 4. Substitutes in Production - Many firms have technologies that are readily adaptable to several different products 5. Taxes - Excise tax. Is a tax on each unit of output sold, where the tax revenue is collected by the supplier; it decreases the supply for a good - Ad valorem tax. Means according to the value. It is a percentage tax. An ad valorem tax will rotate the supply curve counterclockwise. 6. Producer Expectations - If firms suddenly expect prices to be higher in the future and the product is not perishable, products can be held back from being sold to be able to sell it at a higher price in the future. Producer Surplus Amount producers receive in excess of the amount necessary to induce them to produce a good. Area above the supply curve but below the market price of the good. Market Equilibrium The equilibrium price in a competitive market is determined by interactions of all buyers and sellers in the market Equilibrium Price and Equilibrium Quantity wherein there is no shortage or surplus. In situations where shortage exists, there is a natural tendency for prices to rise; consumers unable to buy the good may offer a higher price to get the product In situations where surplus exists, producers are producing more than they can sell. There is a natural tendency for the prices to fall to sell unsold inventories. Price Ceiling The highest permissible price of a good in the market; reduces the quantity available in the market and reduces social welfare Full economic price. The dollar amount paid to affirm under a price ceiling, plus the non-pecuniary price. Non-pecuniary price is price paid by opportunity cost Pf = Pc + (Pf – Pc) Full economic price = Dollar Price + non-pecuniary price Price Floor The minimum legal price that can be charged in a market More is produced than consumers are willing to purchase at that price. Thus, surplus is produced. In labor market, more people look for work than there are jobs which result in unemployment When price floors are above the equilibrium price, there will be consumers willing to pay more than production costs but less than the price floor. These consumers will be unable to purchase when price floor is placed, which results in loss of social welfare. Price support is a price floor wherein the government purchases the surplus products A deadweight loss is a cost to society created by market inefficiency, which occurs when supply and demand are out of equilibrium; can be applied to any deficiency caused by an inefficient allocation of resources. When a price floor applies to a product, deadweight loss is greater. Additional deadweight loss when surplus products purchased are discarded. MODULE 3: QUANTITATIVE DEMAND ANALYSIS Elasticity Measures how the amount of good changes when its price goes up or down; responsiveness of one variable to changes in another variable. It is how quick consumers react to changes in price; pertains to responsiveness. =%△Q =Q2 – Q1 %△P _____Q1_____ P2 – P1 P1 Demand is elastic when absolute value of the own price elasticity is greater than 1. P Q Inelastic Demand ( < 1 ) More changes in price than demand; the absolute value of the own price elasticity is less than 1. When demand is inelastic, a price increase will reduce consumption very little. P If the elasticity is positive, an increase in Price (P), leads to an increase in Quantity (Q). If the elasticity is negative, an increase in Price (P) leads to a decrease in Quantity (Q). If the absolute value of the elasticity is greater than 1, a small percentage change in Price (P) will lead to a relatively large percentage change in Quantity (Q). Q Unitary Elastic ( =1 ) The absolute value of the own price elasticity is equal 1. Changes in demand = Changes in price P Q If the absolute value of the elasticity is less than 1, a percentage change in Price (P) will lead to a relatively small percentage change in Quantity (Q). Perfectly Elastic The own price elasticity of demand is infinite in absolute value. Own Price Elasticity of Demand Measures the responsiveness of quantity demanded to change in price. There is a change in demand but no change in price. A slight increase in price will result to a drastic decrease in QD. =%△Qxd %△Px Elastic Demand ( > 1 ) Consumers are responsive to the product; more changes in demand than price. When demand is elastic, a price increase will reduce consumption considerably. P Q Perfectly Inelastic The own price elasticity of demand is 0. Same quantity demanded at different price levels. An increase in price does not affect the QD. Total revenue is maximized at the point where demand is unitary elastic. P Q Factors Affecting the Own Price Elasticity: 1. Available Substitutes – the more substitutes available for the good, the more elastic the demand for it. When there are few close substitutes for a good, demand tends to be relatively inelastic. 2. Time/duration of purchase horizon – time to search for more alternative products. The more time consumers have to react to a price change, the more elastic the demand for a good, 3. Expenditure share – when a good comprises only a small portion of the budget, the consumer can reduce the consumption of other goods when the price of the good increases. Marginal Revenue and the Own Price Elasticity of Demand Marginal Revenue is the change in total revenue due to a change in output. To maximize profit, marginal revenue must equal to marginal cost. To induce consumers to purchase more of a good, a firm must lower its price. Total Revenue Test The relationship among the changes in price, elasticity, and total revenue. If demand is elastic, an increase (decrease) in price will lead to a decrease (increase) in total revenue. If demand is inelastic, an increase (decrease) in price will lead to an increase (decrease) in total revenue, Cross-Price Elasticity The responsiveness of the demand for a good to changes in price of a related good. The percentage change in the quantity demanded of one good divided by the percentage change in the price of a related good. =%△Qxd %△Py When goods X and Y are substitutes, an increase in the price of Y leads to an increase in demand for X (E>0) When goods X and Y are complements, an increase in the price of Y leads to a decrease in demand for X (E<0) Assessing the overall change in revenue from a price change for one good when a firm sells to goods is: Change in revenue = [Revenue for Good X (1 + Own Price Elasticity) + Revenue for Good Y (Cross-Price Elasticity)] (% change in the Price of X) Income Elasticity A measure of the responsiveness of consumer demand to changes in income. E =%△Qxd %△M When good X is a normal good, an increase in income leads to an increase in the consumption of X. (E>0) When good X is an inferior good, an increase in income leads to decrease in the consumption of X. (E<0) Other Elasticities: Own advertising and cross-advertising elasticity of demand. An increase in advertising will lead to an increase in the demand for the products. Elasticities for Non-Linear Demand Functions There are situations wherein a product’s demand is not a linear function of prices, income, advertising, and other demand shifters. A linear demand is log linear (ln) if the logarithm of demand is a linear function of the logarithm of prices, income, and other variables. Regression Line is the line that minimizes the squared deviations between the line and the actual data points. Least Squares regression line a’ = least squares estimate of the unknown parameter a b’ = least squares estimate of the unknown parameter b Coefficients - a0, a1, a2. Additional insights except intercept(a0) Positive means an independent variable has a direct relationship to the dependent variable, negative means inverse relationship with the dependent variable Parameter estimates the values that represent a and b that result in the smallest sum of squared errors between a line and the actual data. Example: Demand for raincoats: Ln Qxd = 10 – 1.2ln Px + 3ln R – 2ln Ay R = daily amount of rainfall Ay = level of advertising on Good Y The impact of a 10% increase in daily amount of rainfall on demand: E = BR = 3 E = % Change in Qxd %Change in R 3 = % Change in Qxd = 30 10 T-stat The ratio of the value of the parameter estimate to its standard error. Rule of thumb. If the absolute value is greater than or equal to 2, then we are 95% confident that the coefficient in the regression is not 0. A 10% increase in rainfall will lead to a 30% increase in the demand for raincoats. Regression Analysis The regression analysis assumes that the manager knows the demand for the firm’s product. Econometrics is analysis of economic data. Standard error a measure of how much each estimated coefficient would vary in regressions based on the same underlying true demand relation, but with different observations; the mean of all absolute values of errors. the statistical True (Population) Regression Model Y = a + bX + e a = unknown population intercept parameter b = unknown population slope parameter e = random error term with mean zero and standard deviation P value If the P value is less than or equal to 0.05, then the estimated coefficient is statistically significant at 5% level. F-stat Provides a measure of the total variation explained by the regression relative to the total unexplained variation. the greater the value, the better the overall regression fit. The regression function, y=â+b^x bc, is almost the same as the true regression model, y = a+bx+e. Significance F Same interpretation as P value but as a whole. If the significance f is less than or equal to 0.05, then the estimated regression model is statistically significant at 0.05 confidence level. R (Coefficient of Correlation) strong negative, negative, positive, strong positive relationship between the variables. R^2 (Coefficient of Determination) Provides diagnostics that indicate how well the regression line explains the sample of observations of the dependent variable. It is the percentage of variation explained by the regression line but it is a subjective measure of goodness of fit. The greater the value, (closer to 100% or to 1), the closer the regression model is to the actual data. Adjusted R^2 R^2 is adjusted when there are discrepancies in its percentage value. This penalizes the researcher for performing a regression with only a few degrees of freedom. The penalty can be so high that in some cases the adjusted r^2 is negative. = 1 – (1-R^2) (n-1) n-k n = total number of observations k = number of estimated coefficients (n-k) = residual degrees of freedom MODULE 4: THEORY OF INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Consumers An individual who purchases goods and services from firms for the purpose of consumption. 1. Consumer Opportunities set of possible goods and services consumers can afford to consume 2. Consumer Preferences determine which of sets of goods and services will be consumed Property 1: Completeness Implies that a bundle of goods can be ranked as preferred, indifferent, or less preferred to one another. A>B B>A A~B Indifference curve Shows the combination of goods X and Y that gives the consumer the same level of satisfaction. The consumer is indifferent between any combination of goods along an indifference curve. The shape depends on consumer preference. A shift of the indifference curve to the right(left) is an increase(decrease) in the satisfaction on the consumption of Goods X and Y. Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS) It is the amount of good Y a consumer is willing to give up for good X and still lie on the same indifference curve. It is the absolute value of the slope of an indifference curve. CONSTRAINTS Property 2: More is Better The consumer views the products under consideration as “goods” instead of bads. If bundle A has at least as much of every good as bundle B and more of some good, bundle A is preferred to bundle B. Property 3: Diminishing Marginal Rate of Substitution As consumer obtains more of good X, the amount of good Y the consumer is willing to give up to obtain another unit of good X decreases; Indifference curve is convex from the origin. Property 4: Transitivity The assumption of transitive preferences, together with the moreis better assumption, implies that indifference curves do not intersect one another. It eliminates the possibility that the consumer is caught in a perpetual cycle in which he never makes a choice. If A>B and B>C then A>C If A~B and B~C then A~C The Budget Constrains Is a restriction set by prices and income that limits bundles of goods affordable to consumers. It restricts consumer behavior by forcing the consumer to select a bundle of goods that is affordable. M – income Px Py – Prices of Goods X and Y Budget Set are the bundles of goods the consumer can afford; also called opportunity set PxX + PyY < M Budget Line are the bundles of goods that exhaust a consumer’s income PxX + PyY = M Slope intercept form: Px X + Y = M Py Py Y = M – Px X Py Py Vertical intercept is the maximum amount of good Y that can be consumed. M/Py Horizontal intercept is the maximum amount of good X that can be consumed. M/Px Market Rate of Substitution is the rate at which one good may be traded for another in the market COMPARATIVE STATICS Price Changes and Consumer Behavior Price and income changes impact a consumer’s budget set and level of satisfaction that can be achieved, which will lead to consumer equilibrium changes. Price Changes and Equilibrium Price increases (decreases) reduce (expand) a consumer’s budget set. Slope: -Px/Py Changes in Income Increase in income will not affect the slope of the budget line The new consumer equilibrium resulting from a price change depends on consumer preferences: The vertical and horizontal intercept both increase as the consumers income increases because more of each good can be purchased at a higher income. When income increases budget line shifts to the right. Goods x and y are substitutes when an increase (decrease) in the price of X leads to an increase (decrease) in the consumption of Y. Changes in Prices Holding income constant, a reduction in price of good X will rotate the budget line counterclockwise an increase in good x leads to a clockwise rotation of the budget line Consumer Equilibrium Consumption bundle affordable and yields the satisfaction to the consumer. that is greatest The rate a consumer chooses (marginal rate of substitution), to trade between goods X and Y, equals the rate at which these goods are traded in the market (market rate of substitution) Equilibrium refers to the fact that the consumer has no incentive to change to a f=different affordable bundle one’s this point is reached. MRS = Px Py Goods x and y are complements when an increase (decrease) in the price of X leads to a decrease (increase) in the consumption of Y. Income Changes and Consumer Behavior Income increases (decreases), reduce (expand) a consumer’s budget set. The new consumer equilibrium resulting from an income change depends on consumer preferences: Good X is a normal good when an increase (decrease) in income leads to an increase (decrease) in the consumption of X Good X is an inferior good when an increase (decrease) in income leads to an decrease (increase) in the consumption of X Substitution and Income Effects A lower “real income” will be achieved, as a lower indifference is all that can be achieved after a price increase. Moving from one equilibrium to another when the price of one good changes can be broken down into: Substitution effect the movement along a given indifference curve that results from a change in the relative price of goods, holding real income constant. Reduction in consumption of x implies higher market rate of substitution. Income effect the movement from one indifference curve to another (parallel shift in the budget line) that results from the change in real income caused by a price change. When price increases, real income falls. Labor-Leisure Choice Model Workers view both leisure and income and goods and substitutes between them at a diminishing marginal rate; when workers enjoy leisure, they also enjoy income. A typical workers indifference curve has the usual shape where we measure the quantity of leisure and income consumed by an employee. To induce workers to give up leisure, firms must compensate them. E = fixed rate + hourly rate (number of work hours – number of leisure hours) Relationship between Indifference Curve Analysis and Demand Curves Indifference curves along with price changes determine individuals’ demand curves Market demand is the horizontal summation of individuals demands. It indicates the total quantity all consumers in the market would purchase at each possible price. Maximizing total benefits results in maximizing net benefits when costs are zero The minimum wage is an example of price floor Marginal Net Benefits are the change in net benefits that arise from a one-unit change in quantity Incremental Revenues are additional revenues derived from a decision. The law of demand states that price and quantity demanded are inversely related An increasing in the price of steak will probably lead to an increase in demand for chicken An ad valorem tax shifts the supply curve by rotating it counterclockwise Additional costs will exceed additional revenues when a firm is producing the output at which its profit is maximized If substitute products are available on the market, buyer power is high. Other things held constant, the greater the price of a good, the lower the consumer surplus Consumer-consumer rivalry is due to the economic doctrine of scarcity According to Michael Porter, the competitive force of entry heightens competition and reduces the margins of existing firms in a wide variety of industry settings The equilibrium quantity of lettuce will rise due to unseasonably cold weather, and supply has substantially decreased Profits are a signal to resource holders where resources are most highly valued by society Economic profit is the difference between total revenue and opportunity costs If consumers expect future prices to be higher, stockpiling will happen when products are durable When dealing with present value, a higher interest rate decreases the present value of a future amount Wages, rent, and cost of materials are examples of explicit costs If an excise tax is imposed on a good, then the supply curve shifts up by the amount of tax. If price is above equilibrium level, competition among sellers to reduce; surplus will increase quantity demanded and decrease quantity supplied. Based on the principles of effective management, the first step in making sound decision is to identify goals and constraints For a steel factory, a decrease in the cost of electricity to the plant will cause the supply curve to become parallel to the price axis Suppose the demand for good X is Qdx = 10 +axPx + ayPy + aMm. If aM is negative, then good y is an inferior good. Good X is a normal good, its demand is given by Qxd = a0 + axPx + ayPy + aMm + aHh. Then we know that aM > 0 Competitive market equilibrium is determined by the intersection of the market demand and supply curves Producer surplus is measured as the area above the supply curve and below the market price Suppose the demand function is given by Qxd = 8Px 0.5Py 0.25M 0.12H, then the demand for good X is elastic (perfectly elastic) The property that rules out indifference curves that cross is transitivity Consumer preferences and consumer opportunities are the important things that must be developed when characterizing consumer behavior The property of completeness is violated in a situation where a consumer says he does not know his preference ordering for bundles X and Y As we move down along a linear demand curve, the price elasticity of demand becomes more inelastic (loglinear/variable) The idea that a consumer is limited to selecting a bundle of goods that is affordable is captured by the Budget Constraint The quantity consumed of a good is relatively unresponsive to changes in price whenever demand is inelastic The F tests provide information about the overall statistical significance of the regression model Income effect is the movement from one indifference curve to another that results from a change in real income caused by a price change The budget line will shift inward if a consumer’s income decreases The absolute value of the slope of the indifference curve is the Marginal Rate of Substitution A price elasticity of zero corresponds to a demand curve that is vertical. M/Px is the horizontal intercept of the budget line If apples have an own price elasticity of -1.2 we know that demand is elastic The more is better property is violated when a three-pack soda is preferred to a six-pack. Qxd = 8Px 0.5Py 0.25M 0.12 H, Then good x is a normal good The combinations of goods X and Y that are affordable to the consumer are defined by the budget set The movement along a given indifference curve that results from a change in the relative prices of goods, holding real income constant is called the substitution effect Managers can get workers to work longer hours by offering overtime pay Holding others constant, A decrease in consumer’s income will cause an inward shift in the budget line because the consumer can now purchase less of both products Assume the price elasticity of demand is given as -2, if the firm raises price, the firm’s managers can expect total revenues to remain constant or increase, depending on the size of price increase. Assume that good X is a normal good, and good Y is an inferior good. If income is halved, and all prices double, consumption of good X will decrease and consumption of good Y will increase. Qxd = 8Px 0.5Py 0.25M 0.12 H, Then the cross-price elasticity between goods x and y is 0.25 An increase in income does not affect the slope of the budget line, while a decrease in price changes the slope. The statistical analysis of an economic phenomena is called econometrics