CIVL 270: Introduction to Environmental Engineering Lecture 7: Human Population and Growth Dr. Ashraf Aly Hassan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Early Human History • During the earliest parts of human history, our population survived as hunter‐gatherers. • The population during this time was low; estimated to be in the thousands. – Like other species, population size was limited by environmental resistance factors, such as competition for food and water, predators, and disease. 2 • At some point, estimated to be about 130,000 years ago, Homo sapiens migrated out of Africa into what would become the fertile crescent. 3 • The fertile crescent, as a “bridge” between Africa and Eurasia, had an unusually high amount of biodiversity. • The eight “founder crops,” including wild ancestors to modern flax, wheat, barley, and lentils, grew here. • The ancestor species of four out of the five modern domesticated livestock animals were native to here. Founder crops (flax, three cereals and four pulses) 4 • The presence of two major river systems also stimulated the invention of irrigation. • This period is known as the Agricultural Revolution and marked the first point where humans moved from a nomadic lifestyle to settling in towns and villages. – Instead of hunting and gathering, humans began growing and raising their own food supply. 5 • Agriculture gave humans a greater degree of control over their food supply. As a result, the population began to grow. 6 The Middle Ages • The human population grew at a steady rate, reaching about 800 million by 1800 A.D. • Some density‐dependent limiting factors were still in place. – Famines • • • • Western Europe, 400‐800 A.D. Mayan Civilization, 800‐1000 A.D. Little Ice Age, 17th century Great Potato Famine (Ireland), 1845‐1847 – Disease • Malaria (10,000 B.C.‐present), cause of about half of all human deaths • Black Plague (14th century), Eliminated 1/3 of Europe’s population. 7 The Industrial Revolution • The industrial revolution began a multitude of new technologies and innovations. – – – – – Electricity The steam engine Water treatment Antibiotics Vaccines • The overall impact was a massive drop in infant mortality – the death rate in newborns. • This led to an increase in overall average life expectancy. – Pre‐industrial life expectancy in Britain was 25‐40 years. – Current life expectancy worldwide is 67 years. 8 • Industrialized farming, water treatment, and modern medicine removed many density‐ dependent limiting factors. • The human population began to grow exponentially. 9 HUMAN DEMOGRAPHY • Demographics populations. is the study of human – Includes comparing statistics such as births, deaths, gender, race, and economic status. • Developing countries have populations that tend to be poorer, younger, and are growing much more rapidly. • Developed countries are wealthy, old, and tend to have decreasing population sizes. 10 – Developing countries contain 80% of the world’s population, and will account for 90% of its projected growth. 11 • Comparing developed and developing countries requires the use of these demographic variables: – Life expectancy, or how long an average newborn will live in a society. • Most affected by infant mortality rate. – Total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. • A fertility rate above replacement level, 2.1, will generally result in a growing population. • Below replacement level results in a shrinking population. – Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is a measurement of standard of living. • Total value of all goods and services produced in a country per person. 12 • Life expectancy (and infant mortality) are highly correlated with GDP, up to about $4000/year. 13 Migration • The movement of individuals between areas can have a major impact on population change. • Emigration is when people move out of an area. – More likely to occur in developing countries. • Immigration is when people move into an area. – More likely to occur in developed countries. 14 • In some developed countries, immigration offsets or delays the normal population decline. • The United States total fertility rate in 2011 was 1.89, below replacement level. – The overall immigration was over 11 million. – The population growth rate was 0.7%. • Japan had a fertility rate of 1.39 in 2011. – The overall immigration was just over 200,000. – Their population growth rate is ‐0.2%. 15 Objective: Develop and use various mathematical models to predict population. Why? • Population growth is needed for design purposes. • Population growth plays a role in economic growth. • We cannot expect to make accurate predictions of the future! What if scenarios! Population Growth Models 1. Exponential Growth •Discrete growth •Continuous compounding 2. Logistic Growth 3. Using Life Tables Can you please solve the population doubling time (td)? Example 3.3 (page 91) It took about 300 years for the world’s population to increase from 0.5 billion to 4 billion. If we assume exponential growth at a constant rate over that period of time, what would that growth rate be? Do this example first with a calculator and then with the rule of thumb. 𝑵𝒕 𝑵𝒐 𝒆𝒓𝒕 𝑵𝒕 /𝑵𝒐 𝒆𝒓𝒕 => ln(𝑵𝒕 /𝑵𝒐 ) = rt => r = (1/t) ln (𝑵𝒕 /𝑵𝒐 ) r = (1/t) ln (𝑵𝒕 /𝑵𝒐 ) = (1/300) ln(4/0.5) = 0.00693 = 0.693% = 0.7% Rule of Thumb: Consider three doubling times (0.5 to 1 billion), (1 to 2 billion) and (2 to 4 billion) in three consecutive 100 years. Doubling time, Td = 70/r%; r% = 70/100 = 0.7% Definition • Crude Birth Rate, b (no. live births per 1000 in a year) • Total Fertility Rate, TFR (average children per woman) • Replacement Level Fertility (TFR at which 1 girl per 1 woman) • Crude Death Rate, d (no. deaths per 1000 in a year) • Infant Mortality Rate (no. of infant deaths (less than 1 year) per 1000 live births in a year) • Rate of natural increase, r (r = b – d) Population Pyramids or Population Age Structure • When studying the demographics of a single country, two of the most important factors to examine are gender and age distribution. • These variables are graphed as population pyramids, and can provide valuable insight into a country. 27 • What is the overall shape of the graph? • Is there a dominant age group or groups? • What proportion of the 0‐4 age group survives into the elderly (60+) age groups? • Are the male and female sides roughly equal? 28 Demographic Transition Model • Countries will typically pass through a series of stages as they industrialize and transition from developing to developed countries. • During the pre‐industrial stage, food shortages, malnutrition, poor sanitation, and lack of access to modern medicine keep death rates high. – All regions of the world were in this stage up until the industrial revolution. 29 Demographic Transition 30 • During the early transition stage, access to food and medicine improve, leading to a rapid drop in death rates. – Birth rates remain high, as family size is tied to cultural norms and religious beliefs. • Population size begins to increase exponentially. 31 • During the late transition stage, efforts are made to reduce birth rate. – Birth control and family planning education gain greater acceptance. – Women play a greater role in family planning. • The population continues to increase, but more slowly. 32 • During the industrial stage, birth rates have fallen back into balance with death rates. – Total fertility rate is close to replacement level. • The population stabilizes. 33 • During the post‐industrial stage, birth rates continue to fall due to antinatalist pressures – Total fertility rate is below replacement level. • The population size decreases. 34 Population Growth : Opposing Factors • Pronatalist pressures increase the likeliness of individuals within a population to have more children. – – – – – Source of pleasure, pride, comfort. Source of support for elderly parents. Aid in supporting family income. Counteracting high child mortality rates. Social status – importance of having a son. • Most antinatalist pressures involve women. – Higher education and personal freedom. – More opportunities to earn a salary. – Higher socioeconomic status. 35 CIVL 270: Introduction to Environmental Engineering Lecture 8: Water Resources, Pollution and Treatment ‐ 1 Dr. Ashraf Aly Hassan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering “When the well is dry, we learn the worth of water.” ‐ Benjamin Franklin 2 Hydrologic Cycle • The hydrologic cycle describes the mechanisms by which water moves throughout the Earth. – Heat from the sun causes water to evaporate from rivers, lakes, oceans, or the soil. – Plant roots extract water from the soil and release some of it into the atmosphere through their leaves, a process called transpiration. Barron Gorge National Park, Cairns, Australia. 3 • As the evaporated water moves up into the atmosphere, it loses heat and condenses into clouds. • The water then returns to the Earth as precipitation; rain, snow, or ice. – Some of that water will form runoff, moving towards lower elevations and collecting into another body of surface water. – The rest of the water soaks into the soil, a process called infiltration. 4 • At any given time, only about 3% of the world’s water supply is freshwater. The rest is in the oceans (saline water). • The majority of freshwater is frozen (79%) within land ice (glaciers). • Another 20% is underground (groundwater). • Only 1% of freshwater is available at the surface (surface water). 5 Hydrologic Cycle Water Usage • Water use is measured in two ways: – Water withdrawal measures the total amount diverted or withdrawn from a source. • Example: Coolant water withdrawn by a power plant, then returned to the river. – Water consumption measures water permanently removed from a source. • Example: Water is sprayed on crops for irrigation, then evaporates or transpires into the atmosphere. 8 • Agriculture makes up the majority of both water withdrawal and consumption. 10 Countries experiencing water scarcity tend to be in highly populated and dry regions. Water Supply in UAE • • • • • Average rainfall is about 100 mm/yr. No reliable surface water resources. Low groundwater recharge rate. Very high evaporation rate (2000‐3000 mm/yr). UAE current water demand is 7 times its renewable water resources. • Second largest producer of desalinated water in GCC. (500 Mm3/year) • The average water consumption in the UAE is about 570 Liter/capita/day. • Highest per capita domestic consumption rate within GCC which reaches 300 Liter/cap/day. Water Pollution • Thermal Pollution (p.190) Causes a drop in the dissolved oxygen due to higher metabolic rate and lower DO solubility at higher temperature. • Solids/Salts (p.188) • • • All naturally occurring water has some amount of salt in it. Could be suspended (causing turbidity) or dissolved (causing salinity). Total dissolved solids (TDS) in water is the sum of all cations and anions present expressed in mg/L. • Heavy Metals (p.190) • Cations with specific gravity >4 or 5. • Examples: Hg, Pb, Cd, Cr, Co, Fe, Mn, Zn, etc. • Most heavy metals are toxic at low levels. • Some are useful as nutrients at low level but toxic at high level. •Oxygen Demanding Waste (p.185) • DO is a measure of water quality • Substance that oxidized (by bacteria) in water (most organics). • Cause a drop in the dissolved oxygen (threat to aquatic life) • Several measures of Oxygen demand • COD: chemical oxygen demand • BOD: biochemical oxygen demand Nutrients (p.186) • Include N, P, S, C, Ca, K, Fe, etc. • They are pollutants if allow algal growth (drop of DO) Pesticides (p.191) • Chemicals that kill organisms that humans consider undesirable • Classification based on intended use: insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, etc. • Classification based on chemical structure: organochloroines (ex. DDT), organophosphate, and carbamates. Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) (p.193) • Chlorinated compound, perchloroethylene (PCE), tetrachloroethylene (TCE), dichloroethylene (DCE), vinyl chloride, trichloroacetic acid (TCA) • Aromatic hydrocarbons, BTEX Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) (p.199) BOD: The amount of O2 needed by the microorganisms to oxidize organic wastes. Measured in mg/L of waste water. BOD5: Amount of oxygen consumed in first 5 days per liter of solution. Water Pollution • Water pollution is the addition of any substance that degrades, or lowers the quality of the water for living organisms. 27 • Excess nutrient pollution causes eutrophication, or an overgrowth of algae. 28 • Algae blooms caused by eutrophication block sunlight from reaching underwater plants. – As the plants die, the dissolved oxygen (DO) levels of the water decline. – A decline in dissolved oxygen causes the suffocation of large organisms, like fish. A boat moving through a 2011 algae bloom in Lake Erie. Photo by Peter Essick, National Geographic. 29 • Dissolved oxygen levels can also drop with the amount of oxygen consumed by bacterial decomposers in the water, called biological oxygen demand (BOD), suddenly increases. – This tends to happen from an influx of food such as raw sewage or dead algae. 30 Types of Water Pollution • Fertilizer runoff is an example of nonpoint source pollution, because it does not come from a single discharge location. • Raw sewage discharged from a large pipe would be an example of point source pollution. 31 • Nonpoint sources of pollution can enter a body of water from anywhere across its watershed – the area of land over which all rain and other water sources drain into it. The Mississippi River watershed. Source: nature‐education.org 32 Ocean Pollution • The majority of pollution in the ocean falls into two categories: – Oil – Petroleum‐based plastics 33 • The biggest sources of oil in the ocean include: – Natural seeps from oil deposits at the ocean floor. – Runoff from land, including leaking cars and improper disposal of used motor oil. • This is the largest source. – Discharge from ships. – Spills from offshore drilling. – Spills from oil tanker accidents. • Oil penetrates the fur and feathers of animals, destroying the natural insulation. – Oil also directly damages the tissues of fish and other aquatic organisms. 34 Oil Spills • Although oil spills from rigs and tanker ships are not the biggest source of oil in the ocean, they have the most severe effects in the immediate area. • One of the worst spills to ever affect North America was the Exxon Valdez in 1989. 35 Deepwater Horizon • The worst oil spill by volume occurred in 2010 when an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico experienced a blowout. – The drilled well at the bottom of the sea gushed nearly 5 million barrels of oil into the sea over a period of four months. 36 Plastic • A study by the Environmental Investigation Agency revealed that whales in the ocean were ingesting large amounts of plastic and fishing gear. • A gray whale stranded near Seattle was found to have the following in its stomach: – – – – Duct tape Surgical gloves Golf ball More than 20 plastic bags 37 CIVL 270: Introduction to Environmental Engineering Lecture 9: Water Resources, Pollution and Treatment ‐ 2 Dr. Ashraf Aly Hassan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering 1 Accessing Groundwater • Groundwater is located in a region of soil called the zone of saturation, where all of the spaces between soil particles are filled with water. – The top of this region is called the water table. 2 Objectives • • • • • • What is groundwater? Why is it important? How fast groundwater moves? How contaminants reach groundwater? How contaminants move in groundwater? What are the processes of water treatment? 3 • Aquifers are underground regions of soil or porous rock that are saturated with water. – If the aquifer is physically separated from the groundwater, it is called a confined aquifer. • Regions where the water can infiltrate the soil and reach the aquifer are called recharge zones. 4 Aquifer Systems • Confined aquifer: is an aquifer that is confined between two confining layers (water kept under pressure) • Unconfined aquifer: is an aquifer in which the water table forms the upper boundary; it is also called water‐table aquifer 5 Porosity The amount of water that can be stored in a saturated aquifer depends on the Porosity of the soil and rock that makes up the aquifer. 6 Porosity 7 Types of Porosity • Primary ‐water in pores between grains. • Secondary ‐groundwater in fractures, voids • Effective porosity: porosity available for fluid flow, “connected pores”. • Disconnected or “dead‐end” pores. 8 9 Specific Yield, Sy • Storage term for unconfined aquifers • Volume of water that can be drained from an unconfined aquifer per unit area per unit decline of water table is called specific yield (effective porosity) • Solve example 5.10 p.233 10 11 How groundwater moves ‐ Hydraulic Gradient 12 13 14 How groundwater moves ‐ Hydraulic Conductivity, K • At which a fluid is transmitted through a porous material • The most important groundwater measurement!! • Depends on the fluid density, viscosity, and material permeability. 15 16 17 18 Heterogeneity and Anisotropy Hydraulic Conductivity (K) of The formation is • Homogeneous: when K is independent of position K(x,y,z) = constant • Isotropic: when K is independent of direction Kx=Ky=Kz=constant 19 Heterogeneity and Anisotropy of Hydraulic Conductivity 20 How fast does groundwater flow? • Depends on hydraulic conductivity (K), • Depends on available potential energy to drive the fluid flow, • Movement from high to low energy. 21 Overconsumption • Excessive water withdrawal can cause a lowering of the water table, called a cone of depression. – This may cause nearby, shallower wells to run dry. 22 • Wells located near the ocean can experience saltwater intrusion as the ocean water mixes with the groundwater. 23 • Excessive groundwater consumption can also lead to subsidence, a compression and sinking of the zone of saturation. – The San Joaquin valley in California has experienced subsidence of up to 28 feet. 24 25 Water and Wastewater Treatment Processes 26 27 28 29 Water Treatment Processes 30 Chemical Coagulation‐Flocculation Removes suspended particulate and colloidal substances from water, including microorganisms. Coagulation: • Typically, add alum (aluminum sulfate) or ferric chloride or sulfate to the water with rapid mixing and controlled pH conditions • Insoluble aluminum or ferric hydroxide and aluminum or iron hydroxo complexes form • These complexes entrap and adsorb suspended particulate and colloidal material. 32 Coagulation‐Flocculation, Continued Flocculation: • Slow mixing (flocculation) that provides for a period of time to promote the aggregation and growth of the insoluble particles (flocs). • The particles collide, stick together and grow larger • The resulting large floc particles are subsequently removed by gravity sedimentation (or direct filtration) • Smaller floc particles are too small to settle and are removed by filtration Granular Media Filtration • Used to remove suspended particles (turbidity) incl. microbes. • Historically, two types of granular media filters: Slow sand filters: uniform bed of sand; – low flow rate <0.1 GPM/ft2 [gallon per minute per ft2] – biological process: 1‐2 cm “slime” layer (schmutzdecke) Rapid sand filters: 1, 2 or 3 layers of sand/other media; – >1 GPM/ft2 – physical‐chemical process; depth filtration Water Softening • ”Hard" Water: contains excessive amounts of calcium and magnesium ions – iron and manganese can also contribute to hardness. • Hardness ions are removed by adding lime (CaO) and sometimes soda ash (Na2CO3) to precipitate them as carbonates, hydroxides and oxides. • This process, called softening, is basically a type of coagulation‐flocculation process. 37 Disinfection of Microbes Disinfection is the essential barrier to prevention and control of waterborne microbial transmission and waterborne disease. • Free chlorine: HOCl (hypochlorous) acid and OCl‐ (hypochlorite ion) • Ozone, O3 , strong oxidant; provides no residual (too volatile and reactive) • Chlorine dioxide, ClO2,, string oxidant but not very stable residual ‐ Concerns due to health risks of chemical disinfectants and their by‐products (DBPs), especially free chlorine and its DBPs • UV radiation 39 40 Wastewater Treatment • Human sewage is a waste product that is unavoidable, but it can be treated to minimize environmental impacts. • Screening removes any trash or large objects that may have entered the sewage stream. 41 Wastewater Treatment • Primary treatment holds the sewage in a large containment vessel. – Heavy solids that sink to the bottom are removed as sludge. – May also be aerated to remove as much of the smell as possible. • The sludge that is leftover from these treatments is decomposed with bacteria or composted. 42 • Secondary treatment adds bacteria decompose the dissolved organic matter. to – The bacteria must then be killed once the process is complete. This is usually done with chlorine. • Tertiary treatment is any additional treatment, such as the removal of nitrates and phosphates. 43 Sewer Overflow • Sewage treatment plants have a limited amount of water that can be processed at any given time. • If a flood, snow melt, or other excess water event occurs, raw sewage may be dumped directly into the nearby water body. 44 45 46 CIVL 270: Introduction to Environmental Engineering Lecture 10: Solid Waste Management Dr. Ashraf Aly Hassan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Municipal solid waste (MSW), commonly known as trash or garbage (US), refuse or rubbish (UK) is a waste type consisting of everyday items that are discarded by the public. Consists of everyday items we use and then throw away, such as product packaging, grass clippings, furniture, clothing, bottles, food scraps, newspapers, appliances, paint, and batteries. This comes from our homes, schools, hospitals, and businesses. "Garbage" can also refer specifically to food waste, as in a garbage disposal; the two are sometimes collected separately. Solid Waste cannot be eliminated, but can be reduced through: • Elimination of excess packaging and disposable items • Reduce, Reuse and Recycle of materials (3Rs) • Use waste materials as an energy source Read Pollution Prevention Act of 1990… p. 555 Objectives • Articulate the role of civil/environmental engineers in protecting public health from the hazard of generated solid waste • Determine the size of a sanitary landfill. • Determine the size of vehicles collecting municipal solid waste. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) • • • • • • Paper Wastes Yard Wastes Glasses Metal Plastic Food Wastes The UAE has one of the world's highest levels of domestic waste. Per capita household waste has reached an average annual 730 kilos in Abu Dhabi and 725 kilos in Dubai. In the US the average is 710 kilos, in Australia 690 kilos and in the UK 300 kilos. Additional refuse comes from street litter, gardens and from the waste dumped in the sea and on beaches. This has imposed a heavy burden on the municipalities. The problem is only partly solved by converting organic waste into agricultural fertilizer. Some waste such as paper, glass and tin cans is being recycled Which company in Al Ain works in solid waste management?: http://lavajet.ae/Services.aspx Sources and Types of Solid Wastes Source Typical facilities, activities, locations where wastes are generated Types of solid wastes Residential Single and multifamily dwellings Food wastes, paper, cardboard, plastics, textiles, leather, yard wastes, wood, glass, metals, ashes, special wastes (e.g., bulky items, consumer electronics, white goods, batteries, oil, tires), and household hazardous wastes Industrial Light and heavy manufacturing, fabrication, construction sites, power and chemical plants Industrial process waste, scrap materials, etc. Non - industrial waste including food wastes, construction and demolition wastes, rubbish, ashes , hazardous wastes, ashes, special wastes Sources and Types of Solid Wastes Source Typical facilities, activities, locations where wastes are generated Types of solid wastes Commercial Stores, hotels, restaurants, markets, office buildings, etc. Paper, cardboard, plastics, wood, food wastes, glass, metals, special wastes, hazardous wastes Institutional Schools, hospitals, prisons, government centers Same as commercial Construction and Demolition New construction sites, Wood, steel, concrete, dirt, etc. road repair, renovation sites, demolition of buildings, broken pavement Sources and Types of Solid Wastes Typical activities, Types(Cont’d) of solid wastes TableSource 1: Sources and Types offacilities, Solid Wastes within a Community locations where wastes are generated Municipal Services (excluding treatment facilities) Street cleaning, landscaping, parks, beaches, other recreational areas, water and wastewater treatment plants Street sweepings; landscape and tree trimmings; general wastes from parks, beaches, and other recreational areas; sludge Agricultural Field and row crops, orchards, vineyards, dairies, feedlots, farms, etc. Spoiled food wastes, agricultural wastes, rubbish, hazardous waste. Nature of Municipal Solid Waste • Organic (Combustible) • Inorganic (non-combustible) • Putrescible (putrescible solid waste contains organic matter capable of being decomposed by microorganisms) • Recyclable • Hazardous • Infectious The residential and commercial portion makes up about 50 to 75 percent of total MSW generated in a community The actual percentage distribution will depend on – The extent of construction and demolition activities – The extent of the municipal services provided – The types of water and wastewater treatment process that are used Typical Physical Composition of Residential MSW Composition of Solid Waste The percentage distribution values components in MSW vary with Location Season Economic conditions Population Social behavior Climate Market for waste materials Other factor for the Collection and Transfer of MSW (p. 636) Please solve the Example 9.6 (Vehicle sizing), p 640 Landfills (p. 669) Classifications of Landfills (three classes) • Class I (secure): Hazardous waste • Class II (monofills): particular type of waste • Class III (sanitary): MSW landfills • Landfills construction and operation CIVL 270: Introduction to Environmental Engineering Lecture 11: Risk Assessment Dr. Ashraf Aly Hassan Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Objective Develop the ability to calculate the risk associated with the exposure to levels of contaminants and establish acceptable exposure limits based on a pre‐ set risk limit. Why? To be able to answer these questions • How clean is clean? • How can air and water quality standards be set? • When do we terminate cleanup activities at a site? • Achieving no risk would cost infinite amount of money! Equal Risk (one in a million risk) = 1/1000000 = 10‐6