ACCA – FM FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT STUDY NOTES Contents Sr. # TOPIC Page # 1. Investment Appraisal 01 2. Inflation 20 3. Risk & Uncertainty 32 4. Cost of Capital 39 5. Cost of Irredeemable Debt 46 6. Capital Structure and WACC 51 7. Business Valuation 57 8. Sources of Finance 64 9. Cost of Convertible Debt 70 10. Islamic Financing 77 11. Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) 80 12. Working Capital Management 94 13. Inventory Management 99 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Investment Appraisal Decision making Short term Long term (Single period effect) (Having multi period effects) Investment Appraisal:A detailed evaluation of projects/investments to assess the viability, its effects on shareholders wealth is called investment appraisal, What is Appraisal:Any expenditure in the expectation of future benefits. There are two types of investment: Capital expenditure: Capital expenditure is an expenditure which results in the acquisition of non-current assets or an improvement in their earning capacity. It is not charged as an expense in the income statement; this expenditure appears as a noncurrent asset in the balance sheet. Revenue expenditure: Charged to the income statement and is expenditure which is incurred. (i) For the purpose of the trade of the business this includes expenditure classified as selling and distribution, administration expenses and finance charges. (ii) To maintain the existing earning capacity of non-current asset. The capital budgeting process: The process of identifying, analyzing and selecting investments projects whose returns are expected to extend beyond one year. These steps are being followed in capital budgeting process. I. Creation of capital budgets This steps involves assessing the time required by projects, when they are anticipated to start, how they will be financed, how they would effect the current production budget, expected levels of production and long term development of organization. II. Investment Decision making process It involves the following steps Origination of Proposals Project screening and Acceptance Analysis and Review Monitoring 1 Study Notes i. Financial Management - FM Origination:A good understanding of market demand, market conditions and customer perceptions are always needed in order to avail the opportunities. There should be a proper mechanism which identifies the potential opportunities available in the market for investment, and if technology is obsoleting, organization should know beforehand that new investment is required. ii. Project Screening:Each proposal should be screened before doing financial analysis on it. This screening would involve the following questions: What is the purpose of the project? Does it align with organizations long term objectives? There should not be a single conflict between the organization objectives and projects objectives. Are sufficient resources available? Necessary management skills are present? What kind of risk is involved in the project? iii. Analysis and acceptance:It involves the following steps Standard format of financial information as a formal investment proposal should be submitted. Project should be classified e.g. what kind of financial appraisal is required, what % of return should be achieved. Financial analysis should be done. Outcome of financial analysis should be compared with predetermined criteria Consider the project in the light of capital budget for the current and future operating periods Make the decision (accept or reject). Monitor the progress of the project. a) Financial Analysis:This step would involve the application of organization’s preferred investment appraisal techniques e.g. IRR, NPV etc. Some projects e.g. marketing investment decisions have intangible returns in this case more weight may be given to the consideration and qualitative issues. b) Qualitative Issues:Qualitative Issues are those issues which are difficult or impossible to quantify but decisions should be made after considering these issues e.g. (i) How the project will affect the company’s image (ii) Would the project help the organization in satisfying the customer needs c) Accept or Reject:Acceptance depends on three factors (i) Type of investment 2 Study Notes (ii) (iii) iv. Financial Management - FM Risk of the investment Amount of expenditure required Monitoring the progress:A project progress should be monitored regularly, to ensure that capital spending is not exceeding from the budget, implementation is not delayed and the anticipated benefits are eventually obtained. Financial Evaluation Methods Basic Methods Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) Payback Period Advanced Methods Net Present Value NPV Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Discounted Payback Period In the above methods, ARR method is based on profits whereas all other methods are based on cash flows. The Advanced Methods Includes Time Value of money Basic Methods 1. Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) Definition:The earnings of a project expressed as a percentage of the capital outlay or average investment Or Average return as a percentage of average investment. Formula:ARR = Average Annual profit x 100 Initial investment Alternative Version of ARR is: ARR = Average Annual profit x 100 Average Investment Where “Average Investment” is = Initial Investment + Scrap value 2 Decision Rule:Feasibility Decision: If ARR of the project > Target ARR, Accept the project If ARR of the project < Target ARR, Reject the project Comparison Decision: Project with higher ARR shall be preferred. Advantages of Accounting Rate of Return: It considers the readily available accounting information, that’s why eliminating the need of any other additional reporting. ARR is simple to calculate and easy to understand, there is no technical knowledge required for its calculations. 3 Study Notes Financial Management - FM It takes into account the whole life of the project, as it takes the average of all profits available in the project life. It can be used as a relative measure in case of mutually exclusive projects. The expected profitability of a project can be compared with the present profitability of business. Disadvantages of Accounting Rate of Return: ARR does not consider the time value of money. It ignores the timing, relevancy of cash inflows. It includes: Sunk costs (money already spent) Net Book Values of Assets Depreciation and amortization of intangibles Allocated Fixed Overheads. ARR calculations are based on accounting profits and they can be easily manipulated by applying different accounting policies. It ignores the size of investment and length of the project. It gives no absolute measure to reach at some conclusion, we need to do comparison that’s why it is a relative measure only. Calculation of target ARR is a subjective approach. ARR does not take into account the risk and uncertainty related to the profits of the project. It is an average measure, so does not consider relative life of the project. The average annual profit used to calculate ARR, is unlikely to be the profit earned in any year of the project life. Relevant Cash flows in Investment Appraisal:Relevant cash flows are those cash flows which are: (i) Directly related with the project (ii) Incremental (iii) Future cash flows Any cash flows or cost incurred in the past, or any committed costs which will be incurred regardless of whether the investment is undertaken or not are non-relevant cash flows e.g. sunk lost, allocated overheads etc. i. The all other cash flows, which should be considered, are as follows: Opportunity Cost:Cost incurred or revenues lost from diverting enlisting resources from their best use are called opportunity cost. As this will happen because of new project that’s why it is relevant. ii. Tax:Relevant costs include the extra taxation that will be payable on extra profits, or the reductions in tax arising from capital allowances or operating losses in any year. iii. Residual value: The residual value or disposal value of equipment at the end of its life or its disposal date are relevant to the appraisal. Infrastructure Costs Marketing Costs: iv. v. 4 Study Notes Financial Management - FM May be substantial, particularly if the investment is in a new product or service, but if the market research has been done in the past and no further investment in marketing is required then this will be non-relevant cost. vi. Human resource costs: It includes training costs and the costs of reorganization arising from investment. vii. Finance Related Cash flows:Finance related cash flows (e.g. Interest on Bank Loan) are normally excluded from project appraisal exercises because the discounting process takes account of the time value of money, that is opportunity cost of investing the money in the project. Finance Related cash flows are only relevant if the incur a different rate of interest from the rate which is being used as the discount rate. viii. Relevant Benefits of Investment:Relevant benefits from investments, include not only increased cash flows but also savings and relationships with customer and employees. These might consist of benefits of several types; o Savings because assets used currently will no longer be used. The savings should include savings in staff costs, or savings in other operating costs, such as consumable materials. o Extra savings or benefits because of the improvements or enhancement that the investment might bring. These include more sales revenue, greater contribution, more efficient systems operation and savings in staff time. o Possibly some off revenue benefits from the sales of assets that are currently in use, but which will no longer be required. o Greater customer satisfaction, arising from a more prompt service (e.g. because of a computerized sales and delivery service). o Improved staff morale from working with high quality assets. o Better decision making may result from better information systems. Assumptions of Timing of Cash flows If Cash flows arise during the period, then it is assumed as it arises at the end of that period. If cash flow arises at the start of the period then it is assumed as if it arises at the end of the preceding period Period ‘0’ is not a period, instead it represents start of period ‘1’. 2. PAYBACK PERIOD METHOD: Definition:The time period in which initial investment gets recovered, known as payback period. The number of years for the cash out lay to be matched by cash inflows. Formula:a. For constant(Even) cash flows: 5 Study Notes Payback period = Financial Management - FM Initial investment Annual inflows b. For Uneven cash flows: Draw a cumulative cash flow column, then calculate project payback period. Answer should be compared with the target payback period of the business. Decision rule:i. Feasibility Decision: If payback period is less than target payback period then ACCEPT the project. If payback period is more than target payback period then REJECT the project. ii. Comparison Decision: Project with minimum payback period should be preferred. Advantages of payback period: It is simple to calculate and easy to understand, as it does not involve complex calculations. Payback period method can also be used as a basic screening device at the first stage for short listed projects. It considers cash flows rather than accounting profits, that’s why chances of manipulation are very low. Payback period method indirectly avoids risk as it gives favor to those investments which have short payback periods. This method helps the company to grow, minimize risk and maximize liquidity. In the situation of capital rationing, it can be used to identify the projects which generate additional cash for reinvestment quickly. Disadvantages of payback period: It does not consider the time value of money. It does not consider the whole life of project. It might be possible that it will favor the projects, giving high cash inflows in the starting years only and giving very low cash inflows in the remaining years. There are no specific criteria or rule which can justify that company’s target payback period is measured accurately that’s why it is difficult to measure target payback period. It may lead to excessive investment in short term projects. It does not consider the risk and uncertainty in the projects. Uncertainty of cash inflows can deteriorate the results. It does not focus on shareholders wealth maximization. Life expectancy of a project is ignored. Projects with same payback period may have different cash flows. Lecture Examples on Payback Period: Example.1 Initial investment in project A is $80,000. Life of the project is six years and project generating equal cash inflows of $20,000. If target payback period of the company is 5 year whether the project should be feasible or not. 6 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Required: Calculate payback period using non discounting payback period method and comment whether to accept or reject. Example.2 Initial investment in project Z is $5,000. Project life is five years. For the year cash flows from project Z are $2,000, $1,500, $1,000, $500 and $250 respectively. If target payback period of company is 7 year whether the project should be feasible or not. Required: Calculate how much time is required to regain its investment and comment of it acceptability. Example.3 Initial investment in project HMZ is $10,000. Project life is five years. For the year cash flows from the project HMZ are $5,000, $1,000, $1,500, $1,250 and $2000 respectively. If target payback period of the company is 4 year whether the project should be feasible or not. Required: Calculate time Compute payback period by using non discounting payback period method and comment of it acceptability. Solutions Ex #1 Payback period Initial investment = Constant cash inflow 80,000 = 20,000 = So accept the project. 4yrs < targeted 5y. Ex #2 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Cash flow (5,000) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Cumulative cash flow (5,000) (3,000) (1,500) (500) - Payback period is 4 yrs. Ex #3 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Payback period Cash flow (10,000) 5,000 1,000 1,500 1,250 2,000 = 4𝑦𝑟𝑠 + = 4𝑦𝑟𝑠 + Cumulative cash flow (10,000) (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,250) 750 𝑅𝑒𝑞 𝑅𝑒𝑐 1,250 2,000 4𝑦𝑟𝑠 & [ 1,250 2,000 ] 𝑋12 7 Study Notes Financial Management - FM = = 4 + 0.625 4.625 yrs. 4 years & 7.5 months Advanced Methods Time Value of Money Sum of money received today has more worth than same sum of money received in future because of these reasons. • Inflation • Opportunity to reinvest • Risk and uncertainty Simple interest 1. 1000 x 10% = $100 2. 1000 x 10% = $100 3. 1000 x 10% = $100 Cash flows are not reinvested each year Compound interest 1. 1000 x 10% = 100 + 1000 = 1100 2. 1100 x 10% = 110 + 1100 = 1210 3. 1210 x 10% = 121 + 1210 = 1331 Cash flows are reinvested each year resulting in higher principal that increases the interest amount. We can also calculate the future amounts using this formula FV = PV (1+r)n FV= future value= 1331 PV= Present Value= 1000 1331 = 1000 x (1+10%)3 Discounting Where r = cost of capital = WACC = required rate of return PV = FV (1+r)-n Assumption: All cash flows are reinvested in the same project or any other at a given rate of return (cost of capital). Year 1 2 3 Cash flows 1000 2000 3000 Df@12% 0.893 0.797 0.712 PV 892.9 1594.39 2135 8 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Consistent Cashflows If Cashflows arises in a series of equal cashflows then it is called Consistent Cashflows. These are of two Types: Annuity: If Consistent cashflow for a certain Period. e.g Y1-5 or Y3-7 Perpetuity: If Consistent cashflow for infinite period e.g. Y1-∞ or Y3-∞ Present Values of Consistent Cashflows The Annuity Factor = 𝟏−(1 + r)-n The Perpetuity Factor = 𝒓 𝟏 𝒓 Annuity If Cash flows Start from Period 1. Annual Cash flow X Annuity Factor e.g. Y1-5 $10,000 at Disc. Rate of 10% $10,000 X 3.791(from annuity table) =$37,910 Perpetuity Annual Cash flow X Perpetuity Factor e.g. Y1-∞ $10,000 at Disc. Rate of 10% $10,000 X (1/10%) = $100,000 If Cashflows Start from Period 0. NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV): Definition:The term NPV means absolute savings from a project today. Formula to calculate NPV:NPV= P.V of cash inflows minus P.V of cash outflows. Decision Rule:If NPV of the project, discounted at cost of capital, is positive, Accept the project If NPV of the project, discounted at cost of capital, is negative, Reject the project. Advantages of Net Present Value: Net Present Value method takes into account the time value of money and this is giving a better picture of the projects viability. It considers the timing of cash flows. It considers the whole life of the project because all cash flows relating to the project life are incorporated in its calculations. It gives an indication about the increase or decrease in the wealth of shareholders. Its decisions rule is consistent with the objective of maximization of shareholders wealth. It focuses on cash flows rather than accounting profit, so it takes into account the relevancy and irrelevancy of cash flows. Net Present Value is technically a strong method as compared to others as it is an absolute measure. Resultantly it can be used in isolation. Change in cost of capital can be incorporated in it. It can also be used for projects with non-conventional cash flows. It gives a better ranking of mutually exclusive projects. 9 Study Notes Financial Management - FM It assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the company’s cost of capital. NPV is technically more superior method to IRR because of its less rigid assumptions. Disadvantages of Net Present Value: It involves complex calculations as compared to other techniques. Resultantly, it is difficult to calculate and difficult to understand. Managers feel it difficult to explain the calculations of Net Present Value method. It does not take into account the risk and uncertainty of estimates and scarcity of resources. Cost of capital used in NPV calculation is difficult to calculate and gets subjective when we incorporate risk and uncertainty within companies cost of capital. Changing technology may render the product obsolete before the natural end of the project life. It fails to relate the return of the project to the size of the cash outlay. Lecture Examples on Net Present Value: Example.5 Mr. Omar have $50,000 in his old age, he wants to invest into ASA. Project life is 5 years and Mr. Omar will get the cash benefit in following manner. Year Cash flow ($) 1 16,000 2 14,000 3 12,000 4 10,000 5 8,000 Rate of interest is 10% per annum. Required: Calculate net present value & comment on its acceptability. Example.6 Initial investment in a project is $80,000. Project life is 6 years. Yr Cash flow ($) 1 24,000 2 22,000 3 20,000 4 26,000 5 20,000 6 2000 Cost of capital 5% P(a). Required : i. Calculate NPV of the project ii. Decide whether the project should be accepted or not. 10 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Example.7 An Organization is considering a capital investment in new equipment the estimated cash flows are as follows. Yr Cash flow ($) 0 (240,000) 1 80,000 2 120,000 3 70,000 4 40,000 5 20,000 The company cost of capital is 9% Required : Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of the project to access whether it should be undertaken or not. Example.8 Wheel Ltd. has the opportunity to invest in investment with the following initial cost & returns (cash profit). Year A B 0 1 2 3 4 5 $ (90,000) 40,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 $ (20,000) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 Residual value in case of A $4,000 and in case of B $2,000. Cost of Capital in both situations are 10%. Required: Calculate NPV of A & B. Example.9 Initial investment in a project is $100,000. Net cash inflows from year 1 to 10 are $60,000, $30,000, $25,000, $20,000, $18,000, $15,000, $12,000 and $10,000. Cost of capital is 10% p.a Required: calculate NPV of the project. 11 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Solutions Ex #5 Year T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Cash flow (50,000) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 D.F. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 PV (50,000) 14,545 11,564 9,012 6,830 4,968 NPV = - 3,082 Reject the Project Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 Cash flow (80,000) 24,000 22,000 20,000 26,000 20,000 2,000 D.F. 1 0.952 0.907 0.863 0.823 0.784 0.746 PV (80,000) 22,848 19,954 17,280 21,398 15,680 1,492 NPV = - 18,652 Ex #6 NPV of project = PV of cash inflow – PV of cash outflow = 98,652 – 80,000 = 18,652 It should be accepted Ex #7 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Cash flow (240,000) 80,000 120,000 70,000 40,000 20,000 D.F. 1 0.917 0.842 0.772 0.708 0.650 PV (240,000) 73,360 101,040 54,040 28,320 1,304 29,760 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 Cash flow (90,000) 40,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 D.F. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 PV (90,000) 36,360 24,780 15,020 13,660 Ex #8 Project A 12 Study Notes Financial Management - FM T5 24,000 0.621 14,904 NPV = 14,724 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Cash flow (20,000) 40,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 6,000 D.F. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 PV (20,000) 9,090 6,608 4,506 2,732 3,725 NPV = +6,662 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Cash flow (60,000) 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 D.F. 1 0.943 0.890 0.840 0.792 0.747 PV (60,000) 21,218 20,025 18,900 17,820 16,808 NPV = +33,771 Project B Ex #9 4. Internal Rate of Return (IRR): Definition:IRR is the total rate of return offered by an investment over its life. Formula to calculate IRR:IRR =a% +[ 𝐴 𝐴−𝐵 (b-a)]% Where a = Lower discount rate b = Higher discount rate A = NPV at lower discount rate B = NPV at higher discount rate and Decision Rule:a) Feasibility Decision: If IRR of the project > Cost of Capital, Accept the project because the project is adding value to the owner’s wealth resulting in positive NPV. If IRR of the project < Cost of Capital, Reject the project because the project is destroying value in shape of negative NPV. b) Comparison Decision: Project with higher IRR shall be preferred. 13 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Advantages of IRR: IRR takes into account the time value of money and thus giving a better picture of the projects viability. It considers the timing and life of the project. It can be calculated by assuming any discount rate in its calculation. IRR is easier to understand as compared to NPV. Risk can be incorporated into decision making by adjusting the company’s target discount rate. Disadvantages of IRR: It ignores the size of investment and length of the project. It gives no absolute measure to reach at some conclusion. It is fairly complicated to calculate. It can be confused with accounting ROCE. Interpolation technique used in IRR calculation does not give exact answer. It only provides an estimate and if the margin between required rate of return and IRR is fairly small, this lack of accuracy could result in wrong decision being taken. In case of non-conventional cash flows, there may be several IRRs which can mislead the decision makers. IRR does not give indication about the increase or decrease in the wealth of shareholders. It considers the long term viability of the project, losses may be made in the short term. It requires assumption of reinvestment at IRR which may not be fulfilled in case of higher IRR. Lecture Example of IRR Example 1: Initial investment in a project is $100,000. Net cash flows in year1 are $32,000, year 2 $28,000 and from year 3 to year 6 $852,000 p.a. cost of capital is 10% p.a. Required: Calculate IRR of project. Example 2: Initial investment in a project is $50,000. Net cash inflows from year 1 to 8 are $30,000, $15,000, $15,000, $20,000, $18,000, $15,000, $12,000 and $10,000. Cost of capital is 10% p.a Required: calculate IRR of the project. Solutions Ex # 1 Yr 0 1 2 3 Cash flow (100) 32 28 852 D.F. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 PV (100) 29.088 23.128 639.852 D.F. 1 0.833 0.694 0.578 PV (100) 26.656 23.128 492.456 14 Study Notes Financial Management - FM 4 5 6 IRR = 10% + 852 852 852 2194 2194−1480 0.683 0.621 0.576 581.916 529.092 490.752 NPV 2194 0.482 0.402 0.334 410.664 342.504 284.568 NPV 1480 D.F. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.576 0.513 0.466 PV (50) 27.27 12.39 11.26 13.66 11.17 8.64 6.156 4.66 45.236 D.F 1 0.833 0.694 0.578 0.482 0.402 0.334 0.279 0.232 PV (50) 24.99 10.41 8.76 9.64 7.23 5.01 3.34 2.32 21.7 (20 − 10) IRR = 40% Ex # 2 Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 IRR = 10% + Cash flow (50) 30 15 15 20 18 15 12 10 45.236 45.236−21.7 (20 − 10) IRR = 29% Discounted Payback period method: Definition: The time period in which initial investment is recovered in terms of present value, known as payback period or The number of years for the present value of the cash out lay to be matched by present value of cash inflows. It is similar to simple payback period. The only difference is that the discounted cash flows are used instead of simple cash flows for calculation. Decision Rule Feasibility Decision: If discounted payback period is less than target discounted payback period then ACCEPT the project. If discounted payback period is more than target discounted payback period then REJECT the project. Comparison Decision : Project with minimum discounted payback period should be preferred. Advantages of Discounted payback period: It takes into account the time value of money and timings of cash flows. Payback period method can also be used as a basic screening device at the first stage for short listed projects. 15 Study Notes Financial Management - FM It considers cash flows rather than accounting profits, that’s why chances of manipulation are very low. Risk and uncertainty can be incorporated with the help of risk adjusted cost of capital. In the situation of capital rationing, it can be used to identify the projects which generate additional cash for reinvestment quickly. Short payback period result in increased liquidity and enable business to grow more quickly, so used in rapidly changing technologies and industries. Disadvantages of Discounted payback period: It does not consider the whole life of project. Calculation of discounted target payback period is difficult to measure. Disadvantages of Discounted payback period does not give indication about the increase or decrease in the wealth of shareholders. It may lead to excessive investment in short term project. It requires knowledge of cost of capital which is difficult to calculate. Life expectancy of a project is ignored. It takes into account the Risk of timing of cash flows but not the variability of those cash flows. Lecture Examples on Discounted Payback period Example.1 Initial investment in a project A is $60,000. Net cash inflows during project life of 7 years are $25,000, $20,000, $18,000, $16,000, $15,000, $13,000 & $10,000. Required: i) Calculate payback period ii) Calculate discounted payback period. (If cost of capital is 10% p.a.) Example.2 Initial investment in a project $500,000. Initial investment includes investment in working capital of 10%. Scrap value of initial investment is 10%. Project life is 5 years. Net cash flows from the project are $200,000, $180,000, $160,000, $(20,000) and $67,000. Working will be recovered evenly throughout the project life. Required: If cost of capital is 15% p.a. calculates the NPV. Example.3 Initial investment in a project $50,000.Project life 8 years .Net cash flows are as below: Years Cash flows ($) 1 24,000 2 20,000 3 16,000 4 12,000 5 10,000 16 Study Notes Financial Management - FM 6 7 8 68,000 6,000 4,000 Cost of capital is 15% p.a. i. ii. Required: Calculate the simple payback period. Calculate discounted payback period. Solutions Ex #1 (a) Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Pay period = 2 + 15,000 18,000 Cash flow (60,000) 25,000 20,000 18,000 Cumulative cash flow (60,000) (35,000) (15,000) 3,000 𝑦𝑟 = 2.83y (b) Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 = 3yr + Cash flow (60,000) 25,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 15,000 D.F. 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 Yr Cash flow T0 T1 T2 T3 50,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 Cum cash flow (50,000) (26,000) (6,000) (10,000) PV (60,000) 22,725 16,520 13,518 10,928 93,159 Cum PV (60,000) (37,275) (20,755) (7,237) 3691 7237 10928 = 3.66Yr Ex #2 = 2.4 yr 17 Study Notes Yr T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 Financial Management - FM D.F. 1 0.867 0.756 0.650 0.572 PV (50,000) 20,856 15,120 10,512 6,864 Cum PV (50,000) (29,144) (104,029) (3,512) (3,352) D.F. T0 (550) 1 T1 200 0.909 T2 180 0.826 T3 160 0.751 T4 (20) 0.683 T5 167 0.621 The initial investment’s recovers so, reject the project PV (550) 181.8 148.68 120.16 (13.660) 103.707 Cum PV (550) (368.2) 219.52 99.36 (113.02) (10.02) =3 + Cash flow 50,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 3,512 6,864 = 3.511 yrs. Yr Effect of Taxation in investment appraisal Taxation is a major practical consideration for business. It is vital to take it into account in making decisions. i. Basic Assumption Taxation has two effects in investment appraisal a) Negative effect:- Tax charged on net revenue cash flows. b) Positive effect:- Tax relief on assets purchased via writing down allowances (capital allowances) ii. Corporation tax on profits Calculate the taxable profits (before capital allowances) and calculate tax at the rate given. 1. Tax on Operating Cashflows: Operational Cashflows X Rate of Tax 2. Tax Savings on Capital Allowances: Calculate the capital Allowances/ Balancing Allowances and then multiply with Tax Rate. The effect of taxation will not necessarily occur in the same year as the relevant cash flow that comes in. 18 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Follow the instructions given in exam question Example Initial Investment = 2000 Capital Allowances = 25% reducing balance Useful life = 4 years, Tax rate = 30% payable in arrears, Scrap Value = 500 Years Written Down Value Capital Allowances @ 25% Tax Savings @ 30% Timing 1 2000 500 150 2 2 1500 375 113 3 3 1125 281 84 4 4 844 344 103 5 Effect of Inflation in investment appraisal: 19 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Inflation Definition:Inflation may be defined as a general increase in prices, leading to general decline in the real value of money. (Decrease in purchasing power) Inflation Real rate of Return General Inflation rate Money rate of return i. Real rate of return/cost of capital Real rate of interest reflects the rate of return that would be required in the absence of inflation. ii. Money rate of return/cost of capital Money or nominal rate of return is rate that will be required in presence of inflation. Relationship between real and nominal rates of interest (Fisher formula) (1 + i) = (1 + r) (1 + h) Where h= rate of inflation/RPI r = real rate of interest i = nominal (money rate of interest) Types of Cash Flows i. Money cash flows are those cash flows in which the effect of specific inflation has been adjusted. ii. Real cash flows are those cash flows which have not been adjusted for inflation. Nominal Cashflow = Real cashflows ( 1+ i)n Sometimes Examiners gives the value in year 1 terms instead of current prices terms then Nominal Cashflow = Real cashflows ( 1+ i)n-1 Why Inflation is a problem It is hard to estimate, especially when rates are high It has economic impacts which cause governments to take into account its impacts on business Different inflation rates will occur, different costs and revenues will inflate at different rates It alters the cost of capital It makes historic costs irrelevant and therefore causes ROCE to be overstated It creates uncertainty It encourages business to be short term in looking Inflation may not be constant The longer a project, the more significant the impact of inflation 20 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Effect of inflation on the discount rate:The discount rate used in investment appraisal reflects the finance providers required rate of return (e.g the rate of interest on a loan raised, or shareholders required return if financed by equity. In times of inflation, the fund providers will require a return made up of two elements. i. A return to compensate for inflation (to maintain purchasing power). ii. A real return on top of this for the use of their funds. The required return that incorporates both of these elements is known as a money return. Methods to be used in Investment Appraisal i. Money method Adjust individual cash flows for specific inflation to convert to money cash flows Discount using money rate ii. Real method No need to adjust any individual cash flows for inflation to convert to money cash flows Discount using Real rate This is the simplest technique Remove the effects of general inflation from money cash flows to generate real cash flows. Achieves the same result as money method Note: In case of general inflation, either of the two methods can be used. In case of specific inflation, only applicable method is Money method Working Capital Change Every business requires working capital for its operations. Calculate working capital change in two steps: 1. Calculate working capital requirement one year in advance e.g. working capital is 10% of sales at the start of each year 2. Calculate incremental working capital by taking change of each year working capital 3. In last year, there will be an assumption that all working capital will be recovered (Only for project and not for ongoing business) ILUSTRATION 6 A company is considering to invest in a project with its life of 4 years. Total working capital required at the beginning of each year is as follows: Year Cashflows $’000 1 500 2 700 3 1000 4 600 21 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Required: Calculate the working capital cashflows of each year to be included in NPV calculation? Solution Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Total Working Capital $'000 500 700 1000 600 0 Incremental Working capital $'000 (500) (200) (300) 400 600 The Finance Cost The Finance Cost will be a relevant cashflow however it will NOT become the part of cashflows. This is because it is part of cost of capital. Performa for Net Present Value Years 0 1 2 3 4 Sales X X X X Variable Cost (X) (X) (X) (X) Incremental Fixed Cost (X) (X) (X) (X) Operating Cashflows X X X X Tax Expense (X) (X) (X) (X) Tax Savings on Capital Allowances X X X X (X) (X) (X) X Change in Working Capital (X) Initial Investment (X) Scrap Value X Net Cash flows (X) X X X X X Discount Factor X X X X X Present Values (X) X X X X Net Present Value X Investment appraisal in Capital Rationing situation Capital rationing: Where the finance available for capital expenditure is limited to an amount which prevents acceptance of all new projects with a positive NPV, the company is said to experience “capital rationing”. 22 Study Notes Financial Management - FM There are two types of capital rationing. I. Hard capital rationing: This applies when a company is restricted from undertaking all worthwhile investment opportunities due to external factors over which it has no control. These factors may include government monetary restrictions and the general economic and financial climate (e.g., a depressed stock market, which precludes a rights issue of ordinary shares). II. Soft capital rationing: This applies when a company decides to limit the amount of capital expenditure which it is prepared to authorize. Segments of divisionalised companies often have their capital budgets imposed by the main board of directors. A company may purposely curtail its capital expenditure for a number of reasons e.g., it may consider that it has insufficient depth of management expertise to exploit all available opportunities without jeopardizing the success of both new and ongoing operations. Capital rationing may exist in a: Single period capital rationing : Available finance is only in short supply during the current period, but will become freely available in subsequent periods. Projects may be: i. Divisible – An entire project or any fraction of that project may be undertaken. In this event projects may be ranked by means of a profitability index, which can be calculated by dividing the present value (or NPV) of each project by the capital outlay required during the period of restriction. Projects displaying the highest profitability indices will be preferred. Use of the profitability index assumes that project returns increase in direct proportion to the amount invested in each project. ii. Indivisible – An entire project must be undertaken, since it is impossible to accept part of a project only. In this event the NPV of all available projects must be calculated. These projects must then be combined on a trial and error basis in order to select that combination which provides the highest total NPV within the constraints of the capital available. This approach will sometimes result in some funds being unused. Lecture example A company has four projects under consideration. Project A Initial investment $60,000 .project life 3 years. Net cash inflows per year are $30,000, $45,000 & $27,000 respectively. Project B Initial investment is $80,000. Project life is 4 yrs. Net cash inflows from the project in yr 1 $50,000, yr 2 $30,000, yr 3 $28,000 and yr 4 $25,000. Project C Initial investment $100,000.Project life 7 yrs Net cash inflows per Annum for whole life of project are $21,000. Project D Initial investment $120,000. Project life is 5 yrs. Net cash inflow from yr 1-5 is $60,000, $50,000, $30,000, $28,000 and $35,000 respectively. 23 Study Notes Financial Management - FM The company has only $335,000 currently available. Additional funds will be freely available in future years. If cost of capital is 10% p.a. Required: a) Calculate Net present value of each project. b) Assuming no capital rationing situation, decide which projects to be accepted and also calculate their total net present value. c) Assuming capital rationing situation, calculate profitability index for each project. d) If projects are divisible determine the optimal investment plan. e) Using the above investment plan calculate the associated NPV. f) Assuming that the projects are indivisible find out the optimal investment plan. g) Using the above investment plan, find out the relevant NPV. Solutions Ex # 1 Project A: NPV = PV of inflow – PV of outflow = 30,000 x 0.909 x 45,000 x 0.826 + 27,000 x 0.751 – 60,0000 x 1 = 84,717 – 60,000 = 24,717 Project B NPV = 50,000 x 0.909 + 30,000 x 0.826 + 28,000 x 0.751 + 25,000 x 0.683 – 80,000 x 1 = 45,450 + 24,780 + 21,028 + 17,075 – 80,000 = 28,333 Project C NPV = 21,000 x 4.865 – 100,000 = 102,288 – 100,000 = 2,228 Project D NPV = 60,000 x 0.909 + 50,000 x 0.826 + 30,000 x 0.751 + 28,000 x 0.680 + 35,000 x 0.621 – 120,000 x 1 NPV = 39,229 In case of divisibility: A B C D NPV 24,717 28,333 2,228 39,229 P.I. 1.4119 1.354 1.0222 1.3269 (1) (2) (4) (3) 24 Study Notes Financial Management - FM (C) A (100%) B (100%) C (100%) $ 335,000 (60,000) 275,000 80,000 19,5000 120,000 75,000 NPV 24,717 28,333 1,671 Total NPV 93,950 Indivisible Req. 24,000 260,000 300,000 280,000 A+B+C A+ B + D B+C+D A+C+D NPV 55,278 92,279 69,790 66,174 Asset replacement decisions Once the decision has been made to replace the asset, The decision how to replace an asset. The asset will be replaced but we aim to adopt the most cost effective replacement strategy. The key in all questions of this type is the lifecycle of the asset in years. Asset Replacement issues: 1. How frequently an asset be replaced? 2. Is it worth paying more for an asset that has a longer expected life? In both of these scenarios, the ideal approach is to keep the costs per annum (in NPV terms) to a minimum. This is calculated as an equivalent annual cost (EAC). NPV of costs EAC = The best decision is to choose the option with the lowest EAC. annuity factor for the life of the project Key ideas/assumptions: Cash inflows from trading (revenues) are not normally considered in this type of question. The assumption being that they will be similar regardless of the replacement decision. The operating efficiency of machines will be similar with differing machines or with machines of differing ages. The assets will be replaced in perpetuity. 25 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Lecture Examples on Asset Replacement Decision: Lecture example.1 A company operates a machine which has the following costs and resale values over its four year life. purchase cost: $25,000. Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 $ $ $ $ Running costs (cash expenses) 7,500 11,000 12,500 15,000 Resale value (end of year) 15,000 10,000 7,500 2,500 The organizations cost of capital is 10%. Required: You are required to assess how frequently the asset should be replaced. Lecture example.2 Naurfold regularly buys new delivery vans. Each van costs £30,000, has running costs of £3,000 and a scrap value of £10,000 in its 1st year. In its 2nd year the van has higher running costs (£4,000) & a lower scrap value (£7,000). Vehicles are not kept for > 2 years for reliability reasons. Required: Using Naurfold’s cost of capital of 15%, identify how often the van should be replaced. Ignore tax. Lecture example.3 A company operates a machine which has the following costs and resale values over its three year life .purchase cost: $30,000. Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 $ $ $ $ Running costs (cash expenses) Resale value (end of year) 7,000 12,000 12,500 9,250 13,000 8,200 17,500 1,000 The organization’s cost of capital is 25%.specific inflation in running cost and residual value is 6% & 7.5% respectively. Required : You are required to assess how frequently the asset should be replaced. Solutions Ex # 1 Everyone Yr Purchase cost Running cost Residual value Cash flow D.F. 10% T0 $000) (25 T1 $(000) (7.5) 15 (25) 1 7.5 0.909 26 Study Notes Financial Management - FM (25) 6.818 T0 $(000) (25) T1 $(000) T2 $(000) (7.5) (11) 10 (25) 1 (7.5) 0.909 (1) 0.826 (25) 6.818 (0.826) T0 $(000) (25) T1 $(000) T2 $(000) T3 $(000) (7.5) (11) (12.5) 7.5 (25) 1 (7.5) 0.909 (11) 0.826 (5) 0.751 T0 $(000) (25) T1 $(000) T2 $(000) T3 $(000) (7.5) (11) (12.5) (15) 2.5 (7.5) 0.909 (11) 0.826 12.5 0.751 (12.5) 0.683 (6.818) (9.086) (9.388) (8.536) NPV = (18.181 Annual Equivalent Cost (AEC) = 18.181 0.909 = (2.001) Every two Yr Purchase cost Running cost Residual value D.F. 10% NPT = - 32.644 EAC = −32.664 1.736 EAC = (18.804) Every three yr Purchase cost Running cost Residual value NPV = (44.659) EAC = 44.659 2.486 EAC = (17,964) Every four yr Purchase cost Running cost Residual value (25) D.F. 10% 1 (25) T4 NPV= 58.830 EAC = 58.830 3.169 = (185.64) 27 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Every three yr is the best option Ex #2 T0 $(000) (30) Purchase cost Running cost Residual value T1 $(000) (3) 10 Cash flow D.F. 10% (30) 1 7 0.869 (30) 6.083 NPV = (23.917) Annual Equivalent Cost (AEC) = (23.917) 0.869 = (21.522) Every two yr: Purchase cost Running cost Residual value D.F. T0 $(000) (30) T1 $(000) T2 $(000) (3) (4) 7 (30) 1 (3) 0.869 3 0.756 (30) 2.607 2.268 T0 $(000) (30) T1 $(000) NPV = - 30.339 EAC = (30.339) 1.625 = (18.670) Every two ye best. Ex #3 Purchase cost Running cost Residual value Cash flow D.F. (7.42) 12.9 (30) 1 5.48 0.80 (30) 4.384 NPV = (25.62 EAC = 25.62 0.80 = (32.09) Every 2 yr T0 T1 T2 28 Study Notes Purchase cost Running cost Residual value D.F. Financial Management - FM $(000) (30) $(000) $(000) (7.42) (14.045) 10.68 (30) 1 (7.42) 0.80 (3.35) 0.64 (30) (5.936) (2.148) T0 $(000) (30) T1 $(000) T2 $(000) T3 $(000) (7.42) (14.045) (15.483) 10.187 (30) 1 (7.42) 0.80 (14.045) 0.64 (5.296) 0.512 (30) (5.936) (8.98) (2.71) NPV = (38.084) EAC = (38.084) 1.44 = (26.44) Every three yr Purchase cost Running cost Residual value NPV = (47.637) EAC = 47.637 1.952 EAC = (24,404) Lease or Buy Decision: A specific decision that compares two specific financing options, the use of a finance lease or buying outright financing via a bank loan. Key information Discount rate = post tax cost of borrowing. The rate is given by the rate on the bank loan in the question, if it is pre-tax then the rate must be adjusted for tax. If the loan rate was 10% pre-tax and corporation tax is 30% then the post -tax rate would be 7%. (10% x (1 – 0.3). Cash flows : Bank loan Finance Lease 1. Cost of the investment 2. WDA tax relief on investment 3. Residual value 1.Lease rental - in advance - annuity 2.Tax relief on rental 29 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Other considerations: Who receives the residual value in the lease agreement? It is possible that the residual value may be received wholly by the lesser or almost completely by the lessee. There may be restrictions associated with the taking on of leased equipment. The agreements tend to be much more restrictive than bank loans. Are there any additional benefits associated with lease agreement? Many lease agreements include within the payments, some measure of maintenance or other support service. The benefits of any type of lease to the lessee can be: Availability; a firm that cannot get a bank loan to fund the purchase of an asset (capital rationing – see next section for further discussion); the same bank that refused the loan will often be happy to offer a lease. Avoiding tax exhaustion; if a firm cannot use all of their capital allowances (the lesser can use the capital allowances and then set a lease that transfers some of the benefit to the lessee). Avoiding covenants; restricting future borrowing capability. Benefits to the lesser: Banks offer leases to exploit their ability to raise low cost capital. Companies (e.g. IBM) offer leases to attract customers. Profitable companies set up leasing subsidiaries to shelter their own profits from tax (eg M&S, Tesco). Lecture examples on Lease or Buy Decision: Lecture example.4 Smicer plc is considering how to finance a new project that has been accepted by its investment appraisal process. For the four year life of the project the company can either arrange a bank loan at an interest rate of 15% before corporation tax relief. The loan is for $100,000 and would be taken out immediately prior to the year end. The residual value of the equipment is $10,000 at the end of the fourth year. An alternative would be to lease the asset over four years at a rental of $30,000 per annum payable in advance. Tax is payable at 33% one year in arrears. Capital allowances are available at 25% on the written down value of the asset. Required: Should the company lease or buy the equipment? Solutions Ex #4 CA W Capital allowance 100 CAI CAII CAIII (25) 75 (18.75) 56.25 (14.063) 42.187 Tax saving 8.25 6.18 4.641 30 Study Notes Financial Management - FM (10) 32.187 (32.187) ∝ R.V CA IV 10.622 Lease or buy decision Initial Residual value Tax saving on CA D.F. 10% T0 $(000) (100) T1 $(000) T2 $(000) T3 $(000) T4 $(000) T5 $(000) 8.25 6.18 10 4.641 10.622 6.18 0.751 4.641 0.683 10.622 0.621 10 6.596 (100) 1 - 8.25 0.826 (100) - 6.81 4.647 NPV = - 71.942 Lease T0 $(000) (30) T1 $(000) (30) 9.90 T2 $(000) (30) 9.90 T3 $(000) (30) 9.90 T4 $(000) (30) 9.90 (30) 1 (20.1) 0.909 (20.1) 0.826 (20.1) 0.751 (20.1) 0.683 (30) (18.271) (16.603) (15.095) 6.762 Tax saving on CA D.F. 10% NPV = 73.207 31 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Risk & Uncertainty If the probability of projects out come are: Predictable Risk Not predictable Uncertain Before deciding to spend money on a project, managers will want to be able to make a judgment on the risk/uncertainty of its return. Risk:A condition in which several possible outcomes exist, the probabilities of which can be quantified from historical data. Uncertainty:The inability to predict possible outcomes due to a back of historical data being available for quantification. If project cashflows are: Risky (Techniques) Expected values Risk adjusted discount factor Uncertain (Techniques should be:) Adjusted payback period Sensitivity Analysis Certainty equivalents Simulation models Risk:Expected values:The quantitative result of weighting uncertain events by the probability of their occurrence. Or Using probabilities to create an assessment of the average expected net present value from an investment. The simple expected value decision rule is appropriate, if three conditions are met or nearly met. There is a reasonable basis for making the forecast and estimating the probability of different outcomes. The decision is relatively small in relation to the business. Risk is then small in magnitude. The decision is for a category of decisions that are often made. A technique, which maximizes average pay off, is then valid. Advantages of expected value method: Recognizes that there are several possible outcomes and is therefore, more sophisticated then single value forecasts. Enable the probability of the different outcomes to be quantified. 32 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Leads directly to a simple optimizing decision rule. Calculations are relatively simple Disadvantages of expected value method: Forecasting procedure is complicated. In accurate evaluations already a major weakness in project evaluation. The probabilities used are also usually very subjective. The expected value is merely a weighted average of the probability distribution, indicating the average pay off if the project is repeated many times. The expected value gives no indication of the dispersion of possible outcomes. About the expected value. The more widely spread out of the possible results are, the more risky the investment is usually see to be.; The expected value technique also ignores the investors attitude to risk. Some investors are more likely to take risks than others. Risk adjusted discount rate:Risk adjusted discount rate technique shall be covered in cost of capital area because this technique involves the calculation of risk premium which requires the knowledge of Capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Lecture Examples on Expected value method: Example.1 Mr. Sajid wants to open a campus in Sargodha. Initial investment is $100,000. Project life is 4 years. Sales Revenue ($) 80,000 50,000 20,000 Probability 0.5 0.3 0.2 Residual value of project Operating cost ($) 30,000 20,000 50,000 Probability 10,000 5,000 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.35 0.05 Cost of capital of Mr. Sajid is 10% p.a. Required: Calculate the expected net present value of project. Example.2 Initial investment in a project is $300,000. Project life is 2 years. Net cash inflows from the project are : Year 1: Cash flows ($) Probability 100,000 200,000 300,000 0.25 0.50 0.25 33 Study Notes Year 2: If cash inflow in year 1 i) 100,000 ii) Financial Management - FM Cash flows in year2 ($): 100,000 200,000 Nil 0.50 0.25 0.25 200,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 iii) Probability is ($) 0.25 0.50 0.25 300,000 200,000 300,000 350,000 0.25 0.50 0.25 Cost of capital is 10% p.a. Required: Calculate the expected net present value of project. Uncertainty:Uncertainty cannot be quantified, but can be described using different techniques e.g. payback period. Adjusted payback period, sensitivity analysis and simulation. Simple payback period and adjusted payback period:We have covered in earlier studies (basic techniques of investment appraisal). The quicker the payback the less relevant a project is on the later, more uncertain cash flows. Sensitivity Analysis: Definitions:Sensitivity analysis assess how responsive the projects’ NPV is to changes in the variables used to calculate that net present value. In general, risky projects are those whose future cash flows, and hence the project returns, are likely to be variable. The greater the variability is, the greater the risk. The problem of risk is more accurate with capital investment decisions than other decisions for the following reasons. Estimates of capital expenditure might be for several years ahead, such as for major consumption projects. Actual costs may escalate well above budget as the work progresses. Estimates for benefits will be for several years ahead, sometimes 10, 15 or 20 years ahead or even longer, and long-term estimates can be at best by approximations. Practical factors may be those over which managers have no control. 34 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Formula to calculate sensitivity of a particular cashflow: 𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 (%) = 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑋 100% 𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 Formula to calculate sensitivity of cost of capital:𝑆𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 (%) = 𝐼𝑅𝑅 − 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑋 100% 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 The best approach of sensitivity analysis is to calculate the projects net present value under alternative assumptions to determine how sensitive it is to changing conditions. This indicates which variables may impact most upon the net present value (critical variables) and the extent to which those variables may change before the investment results in a negative NPV. Advantages of sensitivity analysis: This is not a complicated theory to understand Information will be presented to management in a form, which facilitates subjective judgment to decide the likelihood of the various possible outcomes considered Identifies areas, which are crucial to the saucers of the project, if it is proceed with, those areas can be carefully monitored Indicates just how critical are some of the forecast which are considered to be uncertain Disadvantages of sensitivity analysis: It assumes that changes to variables can be made independently e.g. in isolation, material prices will change independently of others variables. This is unlikely. If material prices went up, the firm would probably increase selling price at the same time and there would be little effect on net present value It only identifies how far a variable needs to change; it does not look at the probability of such a change. In the above analysis, sales volume appears to be the most crucial variable, but if the firm were facing volatile raw material markets a 65% change in raw material prices would be far more likely than a 29% change in sales volume. It is not an optimizing technique. It provides information on the basis of which decision can be made. It does not point to the correct decision directly. Lecture example: Initial investment in a project is $1,000,000. Project life is 4 years. Sales limits per year are 20,000. Selling price Material cost Labour cost Variable overheads $/unit 100 50 20 5.0 Increment fixed cost is $100,000 per annum cost of capital is 10% p.a. 35 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Required: a) Calculate net present value of the project. b) Calculate sensitivity of each variable of the project. Solutions Sensitivity Analysis Yr T0 T1 – T4 T1 – T4 T1 – T4 T1 – T4 T1 – T4 T4 % age sensitivity = Initial NPV = 143.3 1000 Initial inv. Sales Mat Lab v.FOH Inc. F.C RV Cash flow (1000) 2000 (1000) (400) (100) (150) 50 D.F. 1 3.169 3.169 3.169 3.169 3.169 0.683 PV (1000) 6338 (3169) (267) (316.9) (475.35) 34.150 + 143.37 𝑁𝑃𝑉 𝑃𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 × 100 = 14.33% Sales = Mat = Lab = V.FOH = In. FC = R.V = 143.3 6338 143.3 3169 143.3 × 100 => 2.26% × 100 => 4.526% 1267.6 143.3 3169 143.3 × 100 => 11.3% × 100 => 45.22% 475.35 143.3 34.150 × 100 => 30.14% × 100 => 419.61% Certainty equivalents: Definition:One particular approach to sensitivity analysis, the certainty equivalent approach, involves the conversion of the expected cash flows of the project to risk less equivalent amounts. The greater the risk of an expected cash flow, the smaller the certainty equivalent value (for receipts) or the larger the certainty equivalent value (for payments). The disadvantage of the certainty equivalent approach is that the amount of the adjustment to each cash flow is decided subjectively by management. As the cash flow are reduced to supposedly certain amounts they should then be discounted at a risk free rate. 36 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Lecture example: Initial investment in a project is $20,000. $/Annum 40,000 15,000 5,000 10% Sales Revenue Material cost Labour cost Cost of capital Project life is 4 years. Following are the ratio of certainty equivalent for cash inflows and cash outflow. Year Cash inflow Cash outflow 1 0.95 1.06 2 0.90 1.10 3 0.85 1.15 4 0.80 1.18 Required: Calculate the NPV of project using certainty equivalent approach. Solutions Ex #1 T0 $(000) Sales Less MC Less VC Initial T1 $(000) 38 (15.9) (5.3) T2 $(000) 36 (16.5) (5.5) T3 $(000) 34 (17.25) (5.75) T4 $(000) 32 (17.7) (5.9) 16.8 0.909 15..271 14 0.826 11.564 11 0.751 8.261 8.4 0.683 5.737 (20) (200 D.F 1 (20) NPV = +20.833 Simulation: use of simulation:Simulation is a technique, which allows more than one variable to change at the same time. One example of simulation is a mathematical model, which could be approached using the “Monte Carlo” method. 37 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Stages in simulation: Specify the major variables Specify the relationship between the variables Attach probability distribution to each variable and assign random members to reflect the distribution. Stimulate the environment by generating random numbers. Reward the outcomes of each simulation. Repeat simulation many times to obtain a probability distribution of likely outcomes. Advantages of simulation: It gives more information about the possible outcomes and their relative probability. It is useful for problems, which cannot be solved analytically. Limitations in simulation: It is not a technique for making a decision only for obtaining more information about the possible outcomes. It can be very time-consuming without a computer. It could prove expensive in designing and running the simulation on a computer. Simulations are only as good as the probabilities assumptions and estimates made. Variables:The net present value could depend on a number of certain independent variables. Selling price Sales volume Cost of capital Initial cost Operating costs Benefit 38 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Cost of Capital A fundamental calculation for all companies is to establish its financing costs, both individually for each component of finance and in total terms. These will be of use both in terms of assessing the financing of the business and as a cost of capital for use in investment appraisal. Risk and Return The relationship between risk and return is easy to see, the higher the risk, the higher the required to cover that risk. Overall Return A combination of two elements determine the return required by an investor for a given financial instrument. 1. Risk-free return – The level of return expected of an investment with zero risk to the investor. 2. Risk premium – the amount of return required above and beyond the risk-free rate for an investor to be willing to invest in the company Degree of Risk Risk Free Government Debt High Risk Investment Secured Loans Un-Secured Loans Preference Shares Ordinary Shares WACC Capital structure theories Ke=Cost of equity Kd= Cost of debt Kp=Cost of preference share Project specific Discount rate 39 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Different types of Cost of Capital Cost of equity: the rate of return that is required by the equity holders of the company. The symbol used to represent cost of equity is Ke. Cost of debt: this the after-tax return required by the debt holders of the company. The symbol used to represent after-tax cost of debt is Kd (1 – t). Cost of preference shares: the return required by the the preference shareholders of the company. The symbol used to represent cost of preference shares is Kp. Methods of calculating the cost of Equity It can be calculated using two of the following methods: Dividend Valuation Model: used for companies that pay: Constant dividend Constant growth in dividends Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): The Dividend Valuation Method Constant Dividend per Year M.v = Ke = 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝐾𝑒 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑃0 𝑋 100% Where, 𝑃0 = Current market value of equity share 𝐾𝑒 = cost of equity Dividends With Constant Growth Per Year M.v = 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 (1+𝑔) 𝐾𝑒 −𝑔 Where, 𝑃0 = Current Ex-market value of equity share g = sustainable growth rate 40 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Difference between cum dividend and ex dividend price Ex-dividend price (P0) is the market price excluding dividend and cum-dividend price is the market price including dividend. Cum-Dividend Price Less: Dividend Ex-Dividend Price Calculating the sustainable growth rate for dividends There are 2 main methods of determining growth: 1 THE AVERAGING METHOD 𝑛 𝑔= √ d𝑜 −1 d𝑛 where do = current dividend dn = dividend n years ago Example Munero Ltd paid a dividend of 6p per share 8 years ago, and the current dividend is 11p. The current share price is $2.58 ex div Required: Calculate the cost of equity Solution 8 11 𝑔=√ 6 − 1 = 7.9% Ke = 0.11(1+7.9%) + 7.9% = 12.47% 2.58 2. GORDON’S GROWTH MODEL g = rb where r = return on reinvested funds b = proportion of funds retained Example The ordinary shares of Titan Ltd are quoted at $5.00 ex div. A dividend of 40p is just about to be paid. The company has an annual accounting rate of return of 12% and each year pays out 30% of its profits after tax as dividends. Required: Estimate the cost of equity 41 Study Notes Financial Management - FM SOLUTION g = 12% X (1-30%) = 8.4% Ke = 0.4(1+8.4%) + 8.4% = 17.07% 5 Capital asset pricing Model (CAPM) There are two types of risk 1. Market or systematic risk is risk that cannot be diversified away. 2. Non- systematic or unsystematic risk applies to specific individual company or industry, and can be reduced or eliminated by diversification. Systematic risk is how market factors effect that investment. Market factors are: Macroeconomic variables Political factors CAPM assumes that the investor has eliminated the unsystematic risk. Diversification By holding a portfolio, the unsystematic risk is diversified away but the systematic risk is not and will be present in all portfolios. If we were to enlarge our portfolio to include approximately 25 shares we would expect the unsystematic risk to be reduced to close to zero, the implication being that we may eliminate the Unsystematic portion of overall risk by spreading investment over a sufficiently diversified portfolio. Capital Asset Pricing Model(.CAPM) Unsystematic Risk Specific to company individual industries A method for reducing this risk is through diversification. E.g. employees on strike,key employee Diversification: it is process whereby we spread our investment by holding a portfolio of unrelated stocks which results in the reduction of un CAPM assumes that all investors are rational and will hold well diversified portfolio (means there is no unsystematic risk.) Systematic Risk Related to general economy includes Macro-economic factors and affects the whole economy Cannot be reduced through diversification. E.g. political risk, interest rate, inflation rate Beta:It is a relative systematic risk of company's earnings with the market systematic risk. As market risk =1 Beta can be > 1 More risky compare to market Beta can be < 1 Less risky compare to market 42 Study Notes Financial Management - FM CAPM Formula Cost of Equity = Rf + β (Risk Premium) Cost of Equity = Rf + β (Rm-Rf) Where, Rf = Risk free rate β = measure of relative systematic risk Risk Premium = ERM Rf RM = Expected Return on Market (Rm-Rf)=Market risk premium or equity risk premium It is assumed that investors are rational & will hold a well diversified portfolio (unsystematic risk will be reduced to minimum level). Transaction cost is low or nil. Investors have homogeneous expectations about the market. Market is perfect and all investors have same level of information & no individual can dominate the market. Debt beta is zero. There is no cost of acquiring information. No individual can dominate the market. Advantages of CAPM It considers only systematic risk, reflecting a reality in which most investors have diversified portfolios from which unsystematic risk has been essentially eliminated. It generates a theoretically – derived relationship between required return and systematic risk which has been subject to frequent empirical research and testing. It is generally seen as a much better method of calculating the cost of equity than the dividend growth model (DGM) in that it explicitly takes into account a company’s level of systematic risk relative to the stock market as a whole. It is clearly superior to the WACC in providing discount rates for use in investment appraisal. Limitations of CAPM It might be difficult to locate information needed for calculating CAPM. Government securities are assumed to be risk- free, but the return on these securities varies according to their term to maturity. Market rate of return is hard to estimate different economic environments and the probabilities of the various environments. An appropriate Beta equity might not be located, as it might not be feasible to find a proxy company with business operations similar to the proposed investment project. Moreover, most companies have a range of business operations they undertake and so their equity betas do not reflect only the desired level and type of business risk. It assumes that a perfect capital market exists, when in reality capital markets are only semi- strong form efficient at best. It assumes that investors hold diversified portfolio’s, i.e. the investors will only require a return for the systematic risk of their portfolios, since unsystematic risk has been removed and can be ignored. This is not necessarily the case, meaning that some unsystematic risk may remain. The CAPM is really just a single Period model. Few investment projects last for one year only and to extend the use of the return estimated from the model to more than one time period would require both project performance relative to the market and the economic environment to be reasonably stable. 43 Study Notes Financial Management - FM CAPM assumes no transaction costs associated with trading securities. Additionally, the idea that all unsystematic risk is diversified away will not hold true if stocks change in term of volatility. As stock change over time it is very likely that the portfolio becomes less than optimal. CAPM assumes investors can borrow and lend at the risk- free rate of return. CAPM assumes that debt beta is zero which may not be appropriate in many cases Dividend Growth Model vs CAPM The dividend growth model allows the cost of equity to be calculated using empirical values readily available for listed companies. Measure the dividends, estimate their growth (usually based on historical growth), and measure the market value of the share (though some care is needed as share values are often very volatile). Put these amounts into the formula and you have an estimate of the cost of equity. However, the model gives no explanation as to why different shares have different costs of equity. Why might one share have a cost of equity of 15% and another of 20%? The reason that different shares have different rates of return is that they have different risks, but this is not made explicit by the dividend growth model. That model simply measures what’s there without offering an explanation. Note particularly that a business cannot alter its cost of equity by changing its dividends. Dividend valuation model might suggest that the rate of return would be lowered if the company reduced its dividends or the growth rate. That is not so. All that would happen is that a cut in dividends or dividend growth rate would cause the market value of the company to fall to a level where investors obtain the return they require. The CAPM explains why different companies give different returns. It states that the required return is based on other returns available in the economy (the risk free and the market returns) and the systematic risk of the investment – its beta value. Not only does CAPM offer this explanation, it also offers ways of measuring the data needed. The risk free rate and market returns can be estimated from economic data. So too can the beta values of listed companies. It is, in fact, possible to buy books giving beta values and many investment websites quote investment betas. When an investment and the market is in equilibrium, prices should have been adjusted and should have settled down so that the return predicted by CAPM is the same as the return that is measured by the dividend growth model. Implications of systematic risk & unsystematic risk If an investor wants to avoid risk altogether, he must invest entirely in risk-free securities. If an investor holds shares in just a few companies, there will be some unsystematic risk as well as systematic risk in his portfolio, because he will not have spread his risk enough to diversify away the unsystematic risk. To eliminate unsystematic risk, he must build up a well diversified portfolio on investments. If an investor holds a balanced portfolio of all the stocks and shares on the stock market, he will incur systematic risk which is exactly equal to the average systematic risk in the stock market as a whole. Factors determining the beta of a company’s equity shares Sensitivity of the company’s cash flow to economic factors, as stated above. for example sales of new car are more sensitive than sale of basic food and necessities. The company’s operating gearing. A high level of fixed cost in the company’s cost structure will cause high operating profit compared with variations in sales. 44 Study Notes Financial Management - FM The company’s financial gearing. High borrowing and interest cost will cause high variation in equity earning compared with variation in operating profit, increasing the equity beta as equity returns become more variable in relation to market as whole. This effect will countered by the low beta of debt when computing the weighted average beta of the whole company. Cost of Debt Capital Each item of debt finance for a company has a different cost. This is because debt capital has differing risk, according to whether the debt is secured, whether it is senior or subordinated debt, and the amount of time remaining to maturity. Cost of debt is adjusted for taxation because of the tax savings available on annual interest. The different types of debt are: Irredeemable debt Redeemable debt (redeemable fixed rate bonds) Variable rate debt (floating rate debt) Non-tradable debt Convertible debt Corporate debt 45 Study Notes Financial Management - FM COST OF IRREDEEMABLE DEBT 𝐾𝑑(𝑛𝑒𝑡) = 𝑖(1−𝑡) 𝑃𝑜 where 𝑋100% i t P0 = = = interest paid marginal rate of tax ex interest (similar to ex div) market price of the loan stock. Example The 10% irredeemable loan notes of Rifa plc are quoted at $120 ex-interest. Corporation tax is payable at 30% Required: What is the cost of debt net? SOLUTION 10(1−30%) 𝐾𝑑(𝑛𝑒𝑡) = 𝑋100% = 5.83% 120 Cost of Redeemable Debt The cost of redeemable bonds is their redemption yield. This is calculated as the rate of return that equates the present value of the future cash flows payable on the bond (to maturity) with the current market value of the bond. In other words, it is the IRR of the cash flows on the bond to maturity, assuming that the current market price is a cash outflow. In order to calculate Kd calculate after tax value of interest. Year 0 1–5 5 Cash Flow D.F @ 5% P.Values D.F @other rate P.Values (M.v) 1.000 (××) 1.000 (××) Interest(1-t) A.f ×× A.f ×× Redemption Value D.f ×× D.f ×× ×× ×× 46 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Example of Cost of Redeemable Debt The current market value of a company’s 7% loan stock is 96.25. Annual interest has just been paid. The bonds will be redeemed at per after four years. The rate of taxation on company profits is 30%. Required: Calculate the after-tax cost of the bonds for the company. Year Cash Flow D.F @ 5% P.Values D.F @ 10% P.Values 0 (96.25) 1.000 (96.25) 1.000 (96.25) 1–4 4.90 3.546 17.38 3.170 15.53 4 100 0.823 82.30 0.683 68.30 3.43 Kd (1 – t) =5% + [ 3.43 3.43+12.42 (12.42) 𝑋(10 − 5)] % = 𝟔. 𝟎𝟖% Convertible Debt Here bond holders have choice to either redeem the debt or convert the debt into predetermined number of shares. The method of calculating cost of debt for convertible is same as calculating the cost of debt of redeemable debt. The problem here is that we do not know whether the bond holder would exercise the conversion option or not. Therefore we take higher value of redemption value or conversion value. Conversion Value is calculated as: Conversion Value = M.V per share at time of conversion x No. of Shares M.V at the time of conversion = Current M.v × (1+g)^n Where, g = Share price growth n = no. of years in conversion Example of Cost of Convertible Debt The current market value of a company’s 7% loan stock is 96.25. Annual interest has just been paid. The bonds will be redeemed at per after four years or convertible into 20 ordinary shares. Current share price is $4.44 and it is expected that it will grow with a growth of 5% per year. The rate of taxation on company profits is 30%. 47 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Required: Calculate the after-tax cost of the bonds for the company. Answer: Conversion Value = 20× 4.44 × 1.05^4=$108 Redemption Value=$100 Investor are rational and will chose the higher Value Year Cash Flow D.F @ 10% P.Values D.F @ 5% P.Values 0 (96.25) 1.000 (96.25) 1.000 (96.25) 1–4 4.90 3.170 15.53 3.546 17.38 4 108 0.683 73.76 0.823 88.88 (7) Kd (1 – t) =5% + [ 10 10+7 10 𝑋(10 − 5)] % = 𝟕. 𝟗𝟒% Cost of Variable Rate Debt & Non-Tradable Debt Variable or Floating Rate Debt Company will pay what you demand. Interest rate and required rate if same then market value will be same as redemption. Because Kd=Interest % x (1-t) book value = market value Non-tradable Debt An example of non-tradable debt is bank loan. Kd=Interest % x (1-t) 48 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Preference Shares Irredeemable Preference Shares Redeemable Preference Shares The cost of capital is calculated in the same way as the The cost of capital is calculated in the same way as the cost of equity, assuming a constant annual dividend. cost of redeemable debt. Assuming before tax preference dividend as no tax deduction is allowable on M.v = Preference Dividend preference dividend. r r or KD = Preference Dividend Market value Weighted Average Cost of Capital The WACC is a weighted average of the (after-tax) cost of all the sources of capital for the company. Steps for Calculating WACC Calculate cost of each source of finance. e.g. Ke , Kd , Kp Calculate market value of each source of finance M.v of Equity = (Issued share capital / par value) × M.v per share M.v of Debt = (Book value / par value) × M.v per bond M.v of Preference share = (Book value / par value) × M.v per share Bank loan market value = book value Calculate WACC using this formula: Source Equity Debt Preference Share Proportion (in Market Values) X Cost Proportion of Equity X Ke Proportion of Debt X Kd(net) Proportion of Preference X Kp WACC WACC X% X% X% X% Example Bar plc has 20m ordinary 25p shares quoted at $3, and $8m of loan notes quoted at $85. The cost of equity has already been calculated at 15% and the cost of debt (net of tax) is 7.6%. Required: Calculate WACC? SOLUTION Market Value of Equity = 20m X $3 = $60m Market Value of Debt = $8m X 85/100 = $6.8m Total capital (60+6.8) = $66.8m 49 Study Notes Source Equity Debt Financial Management - FM Propotion X Cost (60/66.8) X 15% (6.8/66.8) X 7.6% WACC 13.47% 0.77% 14.25% 50 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Capital Structure and WACC Gearing Theories The Traditional View Cost of equity: At relatively low levels of gearing the increase in gearing will have relatively low impact on Ke. As gearing rises the impact will increase Ke at an increasing rate Cost of debt: There is no impact on the cost of debt until the level of gearing is prohibitively high. When this level is reached the cost of debt rises. Gearing (D/E) Key point : As the gearing level increases initially the WACC will fall. However, this will happen upto an appropriate gearing level. After that level WACC will start to rise. There is an optimal level of gearing at which the WACC is minimized and the value of the company is maximized. The MM View (With Out Tax) Cost of equity: Ke rises at a constant rate to reflect the level of increase in risk associated with gearing. Cost of debt: There is no impact on the cost of debt. Assumptions: 1. Perfect capital market exist where individuals and companies can borrow unlimited amounts at the same rate of interest. 2. There are no taxes or transaction costs. 3. Personal borrowing is a perfect substitute for corporate borrowing. 4. Firms exist with the same business or systematic risk but different level of gearing. 5. All projects and cash flows relating thereto are perpetual and any debt borrowing is also perpetual. 6. All earnings are paid out as dividend. 7. Debt is risk free. 51 Study Notes Financial Management - FM The increase in Ke directly compensates for the substitution of expensive equity with cheaper debt. Therefore, the WACC is constant regardless of the level of gearing. If the weighted average cost of capital is to remain constant at all levels of gearing it follows that any benefit from the use of cheaper debt finance must be exactly offset by the increase in the cost of equity. The MM View (With Tax) In 1963 M&M modified their model to include the impact of tax. Debt in this circumstance has the added advantage of being paid out pre-tax. The effective cost of debt will be lower as a result. Implication: As the level of gearing rises the overall WACC falls. The company benefits from having the highest level of debt possible. 52 Study Notes Financial Management - FM (a) Market imperfections: This suggests that companies should have a capital structure made up entirely of debt. This does not happen in practice due to the existence of other market imperfections which undermine the tax advantage of debt finance. (b) Bankruptcy costs: MM’s theory assumes perfect capital markets so a company would always be able to raise finance and avoid bankruptcy. In reality however, at higher levels of gearing there is an increasing risk of the company being unable to meet its interest payments and being declared bankrupt. At these higher levels of gearing, the bankruptcy risk means that shareholders will require a higher rate of return as compensation. (c) Agency costs: At higher levels of gearing there are also agency costs as a result of action taken by concerned debt holders. Providers of debt financed are likely to impose restrictive covenants such as restriction of future dividends of the imposition of minimum levels of liquidity in order to protect their investment. They may also increase their level of monitoring and require more financial information. (d) Tax exhaustion: As companies increase their gearing they may reach a point where there are not enough profits from which to obtain all available tax benefits. They will still be subject to increased bankruptcy and agency costs but will not be able to benefit from the increased tax shield. Pecking Order Theory Pecking order theory states that the firm will prefer certain types of finance over others. It comes up with its ranking for the sources of finance that a company should prefer over other. The order of preference is as follows: Retained earnings Straight Debt Convertible debt Preference shares Equity shares 53 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Pecking Order Theory Reasons Limitations of Pecking Order Theory lt is easier to use retained funds than go to the Pecking order theory fails to take into account trouble of obtaining external finance and have to taxation, financial distress, agency costs or how live up to the demands of external finance the investment opportunities that are available providers. may influence the choice of finance. There are no issue costs if retained earnings are used, and the issue costs of debt are lower than those of equity. investors prefer safer securities i.e. debt with its guaranteed income and priority on liquidation. Some managers believe that debt issues have a better signaling effect that equity issues because the market believes that managers are better informed about shares' true worth than the market itself is. Their view is the market will interpret debt issues as a sign of confidence, that business are confident of making sufficient profits to fulfill their obligations on debt and that they believe that the shares are undervalued Pecking order theory is an explanation of what businesses actually do rather than what they should be looking forward to do. Marginal Cost of Capital Marginal cost of capital is the incremental cost of capital of additional 1 $ raise of finance. It is the incremental cost of capital of additional finance raised. Marginal cost of capital should be used if following conditions does not fulfill. Financial risk of new project is not same as the existing financial risk of company The required return of investors increased from existing level Size of the new project is not smaller that the existing size of business. CAPM and MM Combined Systematic Risk Equity Beta (βe) Business Risk Financial Risk Asset Beta (βa) 54 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Business Risk Business risk arises due to the nature of a company's business operations, which determines the business sector into which it is classified, and to the way in which a company conducts its business operations. Business risk is the variability in shareholder returns that arises as a result of business operations. It can therefore be related to the way in which profit before interest and tax (PBIT or operating profit) changes as revenue or turnover changes. This can be assessed from a shareholder perspective by calculating operational gearing, which essentially looks at the relative proportions of fixed operating costs to variable operating costs. One measure of operational gearing that can be used is (100 x contribution/ PBIT), although other measures are also used. Financial Risk Financial risk arises due to the use of debt as a source of finance., and hence is related to the capital structure of a company. Financial risk is the variability in shareholder returns that arises due to the need to pay interest on debt. Financial risk can be assessed rom a shareholder perspective in two ways. Firstly, balance sheet gearing can be calculated. Secondly, the interest coverage ratio can be calculated Systematic Risk From the shareholder perspective, systematic risk is the sum of business risk and financial risk, Systematic risk is the risk that remains after a shareholder has diversified investments in a portfolio, so that the risk specific to individual companies has been diversified away and the shareholder is faced with risk relating to the market as a whole. Market risk and diversifiable risk are therefore other names for systematic risk. From a shareholder perspective, the systematic risk of a company can be assessed by equity beta of the company. If the company has debt in its capital structure, the systematic risk reflected by the equity beta will include both business risk and financial risk. If company is financial entirely by equity, the systematic risk reflected by the equity beta will be business risk alone, in which case the equity beta will be the same as the asset beta. The Formula 𝜷𝒂 = 𝑽𝒆 𝑽𝒆 +𝑽𝒅 (𝟏−𝑻) 𝑿 𝜷𝒆 Where: Ve = Market Value of Equity Vd = Market Value of Debt Should Company’s WACC be Used for Investment Appraisal? If the Investment’s Business risk and Financial Risk are similar to the company, then we use the company’s WACC to appraise the investment. However, if any of the risk is different then we have to calculate investment specific cost of capital. 55 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Project Specific Cost of Capital Following are the steps of calculating the project specific cost of capital. Financial Risk is Different 1. Chose the βe of the company. 2. Calculate the βa using the company’s current financial structure (Un-gearing Beta). 𝑉𝑒 𝛽𝑎 = 𝑋 𝛽𝑒 𝑉𝑒 + 𝑉𝑑 (1 − 𝑇) 3. Calculate βe of the investment using capital structure to be used for the investment. (Regearing Beta) 𝑉𝑒 + 𝑉𝑑 (1 − 𝑇) 𝛽𝑒 = 𝑋 𝛽𝑎 𝑉𝑒 4. Use βe to calculate Ke using CAPM 5. Calculate WACC Business Risk is Different 1. Identify a proxy company having same Business Risk 2. Chose the βe of that proxy company. 3. Calculate the βa using the Proxy company’s current financial structure (Un-gearing Beta). 𝑉𝑒 𝛽𝑎 = 𝑋 𝛽𝑒 𝑉𝑒 + 𝑉𝑑 (1 − 𝑇) 4. Calculate βe of the investment using capital structure to be used for the investment. (Regearing Beta) 𝑉𝑒 + 𝑉𝑑 (1 − 𝑇) 𝛽𝑒 = 𝑋 𝛽𝑎 𝑉𝑒 5. Use βe to calculate Ke using CAPM 6. Calculate WACC Example Techno, an all equity agro-chemical firm, is about to invest in a diversification in the consumer pharmaceutical industry. Its current equity beta is 0.8, whilst the average equity β of pharmaceutical firms is 1.3. Gearing in the pharmaceutical industry averages 40% debt, 60% equity. Corporate debt is available at 5%. Rm = 14%, Rf = 4%, corporation tax rate = 30%. Required: What would be a suitable discount rate for the new investment if Techno were to finance the new project with 30% debt and 70% equity? 1. SOLUTION Pharmaceutical Industry 𝛽𝑒 = 1.3 2. 𝛽𝑎 = 3. 𝛽𝑒 = 4. Ke = 4% + 1.16 (14% - 4%) = 15.6% 5. WACC Source Equity Debt WACC 60 60+40(1−30%) 70+30(1−30%) 70 𝑋 1.3 = 0.89 𝑋 0.89 = 1.16 Propotion X Cost 70% X 15.6% 30% X 5% (1-30%) WACC 10.92% 1.05% 11.97% 56 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Business Valuation Equity valuation Debt Valuation Businesses need to be valued for a number of reasons such as • For Acquisitions & Merger • To get listed on stock Exchange • For tax Purpose Equity Valuation Cash-Flow based Method • Dividend Valuation Model Net Asset Method • The book value approach • Net Realizable values of the assets less liabilities • Replacement values Income based Method • P/E Ratio • Earning Yield Cash-Flow based Method Dividend Valuation Model ( two methods) Single Growth model: P0 = D0(1 + g) / (Ke – g) Multiple Growth model: Year 1 Dividends D1 D.F at Ke 2 D2 3 D3 4-Infinity D3*(1+g)/Ke-g D.f of last year Market capitalization=Mv/share × number of shares 57 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Dividend Growth Model Assumptions: The dividend models are underpinned by a number of assumptions that you should bear in mind. a) Investors act rationally and homogenously. The model fails to take into account the different expectations of shareholders, nor how much they are motivated by dividends versus future capital appreciation on their shares. b) The D0 figure used does not vary significantly from the trend of dividends. If D0 does appear to be a rouge figure. It may be better to use an adjusted trend figure, calculated on the basis of the past few years dividends. c) The estimates of future dividends and prices used, and also the cost of capital are reasonable. As with other methods, it may be difficult to make a confident estimate of the cost of capital. Dividend estimates may be made from historical trends that may not be a good guide for a future, or derived from uncertain forecasts about future earnings. d) Directors use dividends to signal the strength of the company’s position (however company’s that pay zero dividends do not have zero share values). e) Dividends either show no growth or constant growth. If the growth rate is calculated using “g=b x R”, then the model assumes that ‘b’ and ‘R’ are constant. f) Other market influences on share prices are ignored. g) The company’s earnings will increase sufficiently to maintain dividend growth levels. h) The Discount Rate used, always exceeds the dividend growth rate. Asset Based Approach The business is estimated as being worth the value of its Net Assets. Net Assets = Total Assets – Total Liabilities – Preference Share Value Ways of valuing Net Assets • Book Value Approach -The book value of non-current assets is based on historical (sunk) costs. These amounts are unlikely to be relevant to any purchaser (or seller). • Net Realizable values of the assets less liabilities - This amount would represent what should be left for shareholders if the assets were sold off and the liabilities settled. • Replacement values - The approach tries to determine what it would cost to set up the business if it were being started now. Adjustments: Monetary assets: book value Tangible assets: Replacement value( if purpose is going concern) Realizable Value( if purpose is of disposal) Book value( if above values are not available) Intangible Assets: consider if market value is available Inventory: at NRV Receivable: less any allowance for doubtful debt Liabilities: redemption value 58 Study Notes Financial Management - FM EXAMPLE The minimum amount that the shareholders should accept for this business is $1,550,000, the amount of share capital plus reserves after revaluation (or alternatively, $2,550,000 – 400,000 – 600,000). Market relative based Approach Price/Earning Method / Earning Multiple This method relies on finding listed companies in similar businesses to the company being valued (the target company), and then looking at the relationship they show between share price and earnings. P/E ratio = Market Value of Share / Earnings per Share 59 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Market Value of Target Company = Earnings per Share of Target Company X P/E Ratio of Proxy or (Industry Average) Adjustments. Adjust earnings for one off exceptional items (After-tax). If target company is a private company then downwards adjust the calculated market value because: Public company has better image over private company Public company shares are more marketable and liquid Public company is less risky as compared to private company. If we are using P/E ratio of quoted company for the valuation of unquoted company then we reduced it by 30% to reflect the poor quality of earnings. Price/Earning Method If private company has better growth prospects then upwards adjust the calculated market value. For better analysis use Forecasted earnings. M.V of Target Co= Forecasted Earnings x P/E Ratio of Industry In exam we will calculate both values (using historic earnings and forecasted earnings) and suggest that market value of the company should be in between Income Based Approach Earning Yield Method : Earnings yield = Earning per share/ Market value per share. For example, if EPS was £1 per share and the market price per share was £10, then the earnings yield would be 10%. Earnings yield is the mirror image of the PRICE-EARNINGS RATIO. Market Value of Target Company/ Share = EPS of Target Company X 1/ Earning Yield (Proxy) Problems of using P/E Ratio However using the P/E Ratio of quoted companies to value unquoted companies maybe problematic. a) Finding a quoted company with a similar range of activities may be difficult. Quoted companies are often diversified. b) A single year’s P/E Ratio may not be a good basis, if earnings are volatile or the quoted company’s share price is an abnormal level, due for example to the expectation of a takeover bid. c) If a P/E Ratio trend is used, the historical data will be use to value how the unquoted company will do in the future. d) The quoted company may have a different capital structure to the unquoted company. Use of Forecast Earnings When one company is thinking about taking over another it should look at the target company’s forecast earnings, not just its historical results. 60 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Forecasts of Earnings Growth should only be used if: a) There are good reasons to believe that earnings growth will be achieved. b) A reasonable estimate of growth can be made. c) Forecasts supplied by the target company’s directors are made in good faith, using reasonable assumptions and fair accounting policies. Valuation of Debt Irredeemable Debt • These debts involve a company paying interest every year in perpetuity, without ever having to redeem the loan. • M.V = Annual Interest paid/Rate of Return by debt investors • Tax effect should be ignored. • Rate of Return by debt investors=Before tax Kd Redeemable Debt • The market value of the redeemable debt is the discounted present value of future interest receivable, up to the year of redemption, plus the discounted present value of the redemption payment at before tax Kd • Bank loan or Variable rate loan • Book Value=Market Value Convertible Debt • Convertible bonds give bondholders the right but not the obligation to convert their bonds into a predetermined number of shares at predetermined dates prior to the bond's maturity. • This is calculated same way as Redeemable debt. • Conversion value = P0 (1+g)^n R WHERE P0 = Current ex-dividend ordinary share price g = Expected annual growth rate of ordinary share price n = Number of years to conversion R = Number of shares received on conversion Valuation of convertible debt Years Cashflows Dicount factor at befor tax Kd 1-5 Interest 5 year annuity factor 5 Higher off (Redemption Value or Conversion value) 5th year discount factor Present value Total value=M.V present 61 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Efficient Markets Features of Efficient Markets It has been argued that the UK and USA stock markets are efficient capital markets i.e. the markets in which: i. Informational Processing Efficiency: The prices of securities bought and sold reflect all the relevant information which is available to the buyers and sellers, in other words, share prices change quickly to reflect all new information about future prospects. Market will absorb information in no time. ii. No individual dominates the market. iii. Operational efficiency Transaction costs of buying and selling are not so high as to discourage trading significantly. iv. Allocative efficiency: Investors are rational and will invest in high profit company instead of loss making. v. There are low, or no costs of acquiring information. Efficient Market Hypothesis A market is said to be “efficient” if prices adjust quickly and, on average, without bias, to new information. The key reason for the existence of an efficient market is the intense competition among investors to profit from any new information. Weak-Form Efficiency • In weak form efficiency, the hypothesis asserts that all past information and data are fully reflected in the price of securities. • No investor can earn excess returns by developing trading rules based solely on historical price or return information. Semi-Strong Form Efficiency If a stock market displays semi-strong efficiency, current share prices reflect both • All relevant information about past price movements and their implications and • All knowledge which is available publicly. This means that individuals cannot ‘beat the market’ by reading the newspapers or annual reports, since the information contained in these will be reflected in the share prices. Strong Form Efficiency • In strong form efficiency, the hypothesis asserts that all information is fully reflected in the price of securities, including insider information. • No investor can earn excess returns using any information whether publicly available or not. Technical Analyst: Charting or ‘Technical analysis’ attempt to predict share price movements by assuming that past price patterns will be repeated. There is no real theoretical justification for this approach, but it can at times be spectacularly successful. Studies have suggested that the degree of success is greater then could be expressed merely from chance. Fundamental Analyst:It is based on the theory that the realistic market price of a share can be derived from a valuation of estimated future dividends. The value of a share will be the discounted present value of all future expected dividends on the shares, discounted at the shareholders’ cost of capital. 62 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Insider: Technical analyst Fundamental analyst insiders Weak form efficiency Semi-strong form efficiency Strong form efficiency . Random Walk Theory The key feature of Random Walk Theory is that although share prices will have an intrinsic or fundamental value, this value will be altered as new information becomes available, and that the behavior of investors is such that the actual share price will fluctuate from day to day around intrinsic value. 63 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Sources of Finance Factors to consider in choosing appropriate source of finance 1) Cost of funds (Normally debt is cheaper) o Since secured hence low risk for provider o Guaranteed returns o Definite maturity o Tax saving by interest 2) Duration of need (Matching) 3) Gearing ratio (High gearing High risk) 4) Accessibility - Generally difficult for small co. to raise debt Equity Ordinary Shares Owning a share confers part ownership. High risk investments offering higher returns. Permanent financing. Post-tax appropriation of profit, not tax efficient. Marketable if listed Stock Market Listing Advantages Access to wider pool of finance Better image Releasing capital for other uses Possibilities of acquisition and growth Disadvantages Increased public scrutiny of the company Possibility of dilution of control Increased costs e.g. corporate governance, internal audit Types of Equity Finance Retained Earnings ( Retain funds) These are readily available and have no issuance cost however they may be not sufficient to fund large projects. Methods for Share Issuance Offer for Sale Placing Rights Issue 64 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Methods of Share Issuance (i) Offer for Sale A situation in which a company advertises new shares for sale to the public as a way of launching itself on the stock exchange. This method involves a corporation selling a new issue of share to an issuing house, and the issuing house will bear the risks of selling shares to other investors. Offer for sale at a fixed price Shares are offered at a fixed price to the public. The price is determined by the company in consultation with the sponsor and the broker who also helps to manage the issue. The price is decided in such a manner that it is attractive to shareholders, as it is lower than the market price. The issue is underwritten so that the company can be confident of the success of the issue. (The underwriters subscribe to the shares that are not taken up by the public). Offer for Sale by tender A minimum price is decided. The public is invited to bid for the shares at a price that is equal to or above this level. The striking price is determined after the offers been received. (A striking price is a price that ensures that all the shares on offer are sold) Comparison Between Offer for Sale of its Shares & Placing (ii) Placing This is an arrangement whereby the shares are not all offered to the public, but instead, the sponsoring market maker arranges for the most of the issue to be bought by a small number of investors. • Usually institutional investors such as pension fund and insurance companies • When a company first comes to the market in UK, the maximum proportion of shares that can be placed is 75%, to ensure some shares are available to wider public. • Placing is much cheaper. • Placing is a relatively quicker method • Placing involves less disclosure of information • Placing might give institutional shareholders the control of the company (iii) Right Issue A right issue is an offer to existing shareholders to buy more shares, usually at lower than the current share price. 65 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Advantages • Right issues are cheaper then offer for sale to general public. • A right issue secures the discount on market price for existing shareholders, who may either keep the shares or sell them if they want. • Relative voting rights are unaffected if shareholders all take up their rights. • The finance raised may be used to reduce gearing in book value terms by increasing share capital • To pay off long-term debt which will reduce gearing in market value terms Disadvantages • The amount finance that can be raised by right issues of unquoted companied is limited by funds available to existing shareholders. • Choosing the best issue price may be problematic. • If the price is considered too high, the issue may not be fully subscribed. • If the price too low, the company will not have raised all the funds. • Right issues cannot be used to widen the base the base of shareholders. Valuing a Right Issue Theoretical ex rights price = Existing market value + Funds raised Existing no of shares + Rights Issue shares Fund Raised= Right issue shares × right issue price Value of rights = TERP – Rights issue price Example Existing Shares = 1,000,000 Existing Share Price = $4/Share Company wants to raise $800,000 using a rights issue, incurring an issuance cost of 20,000. Right Price = $3/Share Solution Rights Shares = 800000/3 = 266,667 TERP = (1000000 x 4) + (800000 – 20000) 1000000 + 266667 = $3.77/Share Value of Right = TERP – Right Price = 3.77 – 3 = $0.77 Example 2 (Part a) Existing no of share = 400,000 Existing share price = $5 Right Price = $4.20 Company is issuing one new share against every four shares currently held. 66 Study Notes Solution TERP Value of Right Financial Management - FM = (400000 x 5) + (4.2 x 400000/4) 400000 + (400000/4) = $4.84 = 4.84 – 4.20 = $0.64 Value of Right/Existing Share = 0.64/4 = $0.16 Example 2 (Part b) An investor has 1000 shares of this company. What are the different options available to this investor at time of rights issue? Is the Right Issue Beneficial For Shareholders? Shareholders get return in the form of dividends and share price appreciation. Use of right issue funds • Funds raised through rights issue can be used to repay a loan this will reduce interest expense and earnings would increase. • Funds raised through rights issue can be used to invest in new project which will increase the profitability of project. Steps • Calculate revised earnings or revised EPS • Right issue funds invested in new project or redeeming the loan which will directly increase the earnings • Existing Price-to-earnings ratio will remain constant and calculate new market value using this equation. • Revised M.V= Revised Earning × Constant P/E ratio • If revised market value > TERP, then shareholders wealth will be Maximized. 67 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Preference Shares Cumulative Preference Shares Non-Cumulative Preference Shares Participating Preference Shares Non-Participating Preference Shares Loan Stock and Debentures key Components Nominal or Par Value Market Value Interest Rate or Coupon Rate Security • Fixed charge • Floating charge Ratings Redemption Restrictive terms and conditions Types of Bonds Deep Discount Bonds Zero Coupon Bonds Convertible Bonds • Market Value • Floor Value • Conversion Premium Deep Discount Bond: • Deep discount bonds are loan notes issued at a price which is at a large discount to the nominal value of the notes, and which will be redeemedable at par (or above par) when they eventually mature. • Deep discount bonds will carry a much lower rate of interest than other types of bond. • Investors might be attracted to large capital gain offered by the bonds, which is the difference between the issue price and the redemption value. Zero Coupon Bonds: Zero coupon bonds are bonds that are issued at a discount to their redemption value, but no interest is paid on them. The investor gains from the difference between the issue price and the redemption value. a) The advantage for borrowers is that zero coupon bonds can be used to raise cash immediately and there is no cash repayment until redemption date. The cost of redemption is known at the time of issue. b) The advantage for lenders is restricted, unless the rate of discount on bonds offers a high yield. The only way of obtaining cash from the bonds before maturity is to sell them. The market value will depend upon the remaining term to maturity and current market interest rates. 68 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Convertible Bonds: Convertible bonds are fixed interest debt securities, which the holder can choose to convert into ordinary shares of the company. • This conversion takes place at a pre-determined rate and date. • If the conversion doesn’t take place, the bonds will run their full life and be redeemed on maturity. Conversion Rate: The conversion rate is expressed as a conversion ratio i.e the number of ordinary shares to be issued in exchange of one bond, or part of it. Conversion Value: The conversion value is the market value of shares expected to be issued in conversion of one bond. Conversion Premium: The conversion premium is the difference between the market price of the convertible bond and the market price of the shares into which the bond is expected to converted. For example: The market value of a convertible bond is $14. It is convertible into 3 ordinary shares . Market Value of one ordinary share is $4. Conversion Premium = $14 – (3x$4) = $2 Example of Cost of Convertible Debt 7% loan stock will be redeemed at per after four years or convertible into 20 ordinary shares. Current share price is $4.44 and it is expected that it will grow with a growth of 5% per year. Before tax kd is 5%. Required: Calculate the after-tax cost of the bonds for the company. Answer: Conversion Value = 20× 4.44 × 1.05^4=$108 Redemption Value=$100 Investor are rational and will chose the higher Value 69 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Cost of Convertible Debt Warrants: The right to buy the new ordinary shares in a company at a future date, at the exercise price (a fixed, pre-determined price) is known as warrant. Usually warrants are issed along with loan stock, in order to make the loan stock attractive. Advantages of warrants to investor: a) Low intital investment b) Due to lower intial investment, the risk of loss of investment is also lower. Advantages of warrants to company a) Lower interest rate on loan stock, due to attraction of warrants. b) Even when security for the loan stock is insufficient or not available, it may be possible to issue them because of warrants. c) In the future, when the warrants are exercised, they will lead to an actual cash inflow. This is not the case for convertible bonds. Venture Capital Venture capital is a risk capital, normally provided in return for an equity stake. Venture capital requires representative in BOD. Types of Venture: Business start-ups Business development Management buyout Helping a company where one of its owners wants to realize all or part of his investment 70 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Factors considered by Venture Capital organizations before providing finance to a company The nature of the companies product Viability of production Expertise in Production Technical ability to produce efficiently Expertise in Management Commitment, skills and experience The market and competition Threat from rival producers or future new entrants Future profits Detailed business plan showing profit prospects that compensate for risks Representation in the Board To take account of VC’s interests and ensure VC has say in future strategy Risk borne by existing owners Owners bear significant risk and invest significant part of their overall wealth Ratio Analysis Financial Performance Shareholders Wealth Financial Risk Pro forma Performance Ratios Return on Capital Employed 71 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Profit before interest & tax x 100 Book value of equity + Book Value of Debt Return on Equity Profit after tax Book value of equity x 100 Shareholders Wealth Dividend Yield = D x 100 Po Where, D = dividend per share Po = Opening market value/share Capital Gains = Closing market value – Opening market value x 100 Opening market value Total Return = Dividend Yield + Capital Gains = Closing market value – Opening market value + DPS x 100 Opening market value Financial Risk Gearing = Prior Charge Capital Or Prior Charge Capital + Equity Debt Debt + Equity If overdraft is material Gearing = Long term debt + Overdraft Long term debt + overdraft+ Equity Debt to Equity Ratio = Debt/Equity x 100 Interest Cover = Profit Before Interest & Tax Interest 72 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Assuming that company wants to raise some funds, based on financial risk decide whether we should raise funds through debt or equity When Debt Financing Would Be More Appropriate than Equity Financing When company has lower financial risk The gearing and interest cover are close to industry average When company is in healthy comparative position Cash flows and profit margins are stable Tangible assets are available to be offered as a security Operational gearing is low Dividend Policy Theories Dividend policy is a strategy whereby the management distribute profits to the shareholders. There are two such theories: Irrelevancy theory Relevancy theory Irrelevancy Theory According to MM theory dividends are irrelevant, it does not matter, what actually matters that is earning power. The extent and timing of dividend payouts is irrelevant. Investors are indifferent to whether they receive their earnings by way of dividends or capital gains. Since prime importance is given to investment decisions, dividends are determined as a residual amount. There may even be no dividends if the retained earnings are consumed by investment projects. However, the expected future earnings of the company will push the share prices up. In this manner, a shareholder gains in capital appreciation even if he does not receive dividend payments. 73 Study Notes Financial Management - FM It was argued that if shareholders needed cash when no dividends were declared, they could sell some of their shares and generate cash. Assumptions This theory is based on the following assumptions: Capital markets are perfect. There are no taxes at the corporate or personal level. There are no issue costs for the securities. Relevancy Theory Markets are not perfect, dividends play a role of signal A dividend which differs from shareholders expectations about dividends might send signals to the market and affect share price. „ A higher than expected dividend may signal that the board of directors are confident about the future and may lead to an increase in share price „ A lower than expected dividend may signal that the company is in financial difficulties and lead to a fall in share price. Liquidity Preference Investors have their own liquidity needs so they will prefer cash now to later Tax Position Tax on dividends is income tax whereas tax on selling shares is capital gains tax If company changes its dividend policy, it will distribute investors tax position Factors Affecting Dividend Policy The need to remain profitable The government impose direct restrictions on the amount of dividends companies can pay Any dividend restraints that may be imposed by loan agreements The effect of inflation and the need to retain some profit in the business just to maintain its operating capacity The company’s gearing level The need to repay debt in near future The ease with which the company can raise extra finance from sources other than retained earnings The signaling effect of dividends to shareholders and financial markets in general The amount of earnings the company wishes to retain may be affected by the number suitable investment opportunities available to the company. if there are few investment projects available which can generate sufficient return than surplus cash should be returned to shareholders Scrip Dividend A scrip dividend is the dividend paid by issue of additional company shares, rather than cash. A company that wants to retain cash for reinvestment but does not want to reduce its dividends might offer its shareholders a scrip dividend. The rules of the stock exchange might require that when a company wants to make a scrip dividend, it must offer a cash dividend alternative, so that shareholders can choose between new shares and cash. 74 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Advantages They can preserve a companies cash position if a substantial number of shareholders take up the shares option. Investors may be able to take tax advantages if dividends are in form of shares. Investors looking to expand their holding can do so without incurring the transaction costs of buying more shares. A small scrip issue will not dilute the share price significantly. A share issue will decrease the company’s gearing and therefore enhance its borrowing capacity Stock Split & Scrip Issue Stock Split A stock split occurs where, for example, each share of $1 each is split into two shares of 50c each, thus creating greater marketability. Advantage of Stock Split Investors may expect a company which splits its shares in this way to be planning for substantial earnings and dividend growth. Scrip Issue A bonus (scrip) issue is a method of altering the share capital without raising cash. It is done by changing the company’s reserves into share capital. The rate of bonus issue is normally expressed in terms of the number of new shares issued for each existing share held, e.g. one for two (one new share for each two shares currently held). As a consequence market price of share mat benefit. Share Repurchase Purchase by a company of its own shares can take place for various reasons and must be in accordance with any requirements of legislation. If a company has surplus cash in the form of a higher dividend. If a company chooses to pay higher dividend, this might act as a signal shareholder who then expect high dividends in future years too. If the cash is used for share repurchases instead of higher dividends, future dividend expectations will not be affected. Share Repurchase Advantages Finding a use of surplus cash, this may be a ‘dead assets’. Increase in earnings per share through a reduction in the number of shares in issue. Readjustment of the company’s equity base to more appropriate level, for a company whose business is in decline. Possibly preventing a takeover or enabling a quoted company to withdraw from the stock market. Increase in gearing. Disadvantages It can be hard to arrive at a price that will be fair both to the vendors and to any shareholders who are not selling shares to the company. 75 Study Notes Financial Management - FM A repurchase of shares could be seen as an admission that the company cannot make better use of funds than the shareholders. Some shareholders may suffer from being taxed on capital gains following the purchase of their shares rather than receiving dividend income. 76 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Islamic Financing Riba It is forbidden Islamic finance.Riba is generally interpreted as the predetermined interest collected by a lender, which the lender receives over and above the principal amount it has lent out. The Quranic ban on riba is absolute. Riba can be viewed as unacceptable from three different perspectives, as outlined below For the borrower Riba creates unfairness for the borrower when the enterprise makes a profit which is less than the interest payment, turning their profit into a loss. For the lender Riba creates unfairness for the lender in high inflation environments when the returns are likely to be below the rate of inflation. For the economy Riba can result in inefficient allocation of available resources in the economy and may contribute to instability of the system. In an interest-based economy, capital is directed to the borrower with the highest creditworthiness rather than the borrower who would make the most efficient use of the capital Islamic Financing Contracts Musharaka Mudaraba – a partnership contract Mudaraba – a form of equity where a partnership exists and profits and losses are shared Murabaha – a form of credit sale Ijara – a form of lease Sukuk – similar to a bond MURABAHA: (Trade Credit) Murabaha is a form of trade credit for asset acquisition that avoids the payment of interest. Instead, the bank buys the item and then sells it on to the customer on a deferred basis at a price that form a cost plus sale. It include three parties: a) the client i.e the buyer of the asset b) the seller of the asset c) the financer of assets • The mark-up is fixed in advance and cannot be increased, even if the client does not take the goods within the time agreed in the contract. Payment can be made by instalments. MUDARABA: (Equity Finance) • Mudaraba is essentially like equity finance in which the bank and the customer share any profits. The bank will provide the capital, and the borrower, using their expertise and knowledge, will invest the capital. • Profits will be shared according to the finance agreement, but as with equity finance there is no certainty that there will ever be any profits, nor is there certainty that the capital will ever be recovered. This exposes the bank to considerable investment risk. 77 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Musharaka: (Joint venture) Musharaka is a joint venture or investment partnership between two parties. Both parties provide capital towards the financing of projects and both parties share the profits in agreed proportions. • This allows both parties to be rewarded for their supply of capital and managerial skills. Losses would normally be shared on the basis of the equity originally contributed to the venture. • Because both parties are closely involved with the ongoing project management, banks do not often use Musharaka transactions as they prefer to be more ‘hands off’. Ijara: (Lease) Ijara is a lease finance agreement whereby the bank buys an item for a customer and then leases it back over a specific period at an agreed amount. • Ownership of the asset remains with the lessor bank, which will seek to recover the capital cost of the equipment plus a profit margin out of the rentals payable. • Under ijara the responsibility for maintainence of the leased item remains with the lessor. Sukuk (debt finance) A conventional, non-Islamic loan note is a simple debt, and the debt holder's return for providing capital to the bond issuer takes the form of interest. Islamic bonds, or sukuk, cannot bear interest. • Sukuk are Shariah-compliant, the sukuk holders must have a proprietary interest in the assets which are being financed. • The sukuk holders’ return for providing finance is a share of the income generated by the assets. • Most sukuk, are ‘asset-based’, not ‘asset-backed’, giving investors ownership of the cash flows but not of the assets themselves. Asset-based is obviously more risky than asset backed in the event of a default. 78 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Islamic Finance Transactions Islamic Finance Similar To Transaction Differences Murabaha Trade credit / loan There is a pre-agreed mark-up to be paid in recognition of the convenience of paying later for an asset that is transferred immediately. There is no interest charged Musharaka Venture Capital Profits are shared according to a pre-agreed contract. There are no dividends paid. Losses are solely attributable to the provider of capital Mudaraba Equity Profits are shared according to a pre-agreed contract. There are no dividends paid. Losses are solely attributable to the provider of capital Ijara Leasing Whether an operating or finance transaction, in Ijara the lessor is still the owner of the asset and incurs the risk of owners hip. This means that the lessor will be responsible for major maintenance and insurance which is different from a conventional finance lease. Sukuk Bonds There is an underlying tangible asset that the sukuk holder shares in the risk and rewards of ownership. This gives the sukuk properties of equity finance as well as debt finance 79 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) What is an SME? SME is something larger than those business that are fundamentally a vehicle for the self-employment of their owner. SME is unlikely to be listed on any stock exchange and likely to be owned by relatively small numbers of shareholders Importance of SME • It covers the wide range of business • Important for the economies of many countries • Account for about half of the employment and half of national income • Flexible and quicker to innovate than larger companies due to their small size • They are often thought to be better at embracing new trends and technologies • It is easier for SME’S to survive and flourish in service sector (service sector is a growing market) Why do SMEs find difficulty to finance raising? The directors of SMEs often complaint that the lack of finance stops them growing and fully exploiting profitable investment opportunities. This gap between the finance available to SME’s and the finance that they could productively use is often known as the “funding or financing gap”. The SME sector tends to suffer because SMEs are viewed as a less attractive investment opportunity than many others due to the high levels of uncertainty and risk they are perceived to have. This perception of risk is due to a number of reasons including: • SMEs often have a limited track record in raising investment and providing suitable returns to their investors • SMEs often have a non-existent or very limited internal controls • SMEs often have few external controls. For instance they are unlikely to be abiding by the rules of any stock exchange and due to their size they are unlikely to attract much press scrutiny • SMEs often have a one dominant owner-manager whose decisions may face little questioning • SMEs often have a few tangible assets to offer as security. Potential source of finance for SMEs In reality there are quite a few potential sources of finance for SMEs. However, many of them have practical problem that may limit their usefulness. Some key sources and their limitations are briefly described below SME owner, family and friends This is potentially a very The good source of finance because these investor may be willing to accept lower return than many other investors as their motivation to invest is not purely financial. The key limitation is that, foe most of us , the finance that we can raise personally, and form friend and family , is somewhat limited. The business angel A business angel is a wealthy individual willing to take the risk of investing in SMEs. One limitation is that these individuals are not common and are very often quite particular about what they are prepared to invest in. Once a business angel is interested they become very useful to the SME. 80 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Trade credit SMEs, like any company, can take credit from their suppliers. However, this is only short term and, indeed, if their suppliers are larger companies who have identified them as a potentially risky SME the ability to stretch the credit period may be limited. Factoring and invoice discounting Both of these sources of finance effectively let a company raise finance against the security of their outstanding receivables. Again, the finance is only short term and is often more expensive than an overdraft. However, one of the features of these sources of finance is that, as an SMEs grows, their outstanding receivables grow and so the amount they can borrow from their factor or from invoice discounting will also grow. Leasing Leasing asset rather than buying them is often very useful for an SME as it avoids the need to raise the capital cost. However, leasing is only really possible on tangible asset such as car, machine etc. Bank Finance Bank may be willing to providing an overdraft of some sort and may be willing to lend in the long-term where that lending can be secured on major asserts such as land and buildings. However, raising medium-term finance to fund operations is often more difficult for SMEs as banks are traditionally rather conservative. This is understandable that as the loss on one defaulted loan requires many good loans to recover that loss. Hence, many SMEs end up financing medium term, and potentially longer-term assets, with short-term finance such as an overdraft. This is poor matching and very less than ideal. This issue is often known as “maturity gap” as there is a mismatch of the maturity of the assets and liabilities within the business Listing By achieving a listing on stock exchange an SME would become a quoted company and, hence, raising finance would become less of an issue. However, before a listing can be considered the company must grow to such a size that a listing is feasible. Many SMEs never hope to achieve this The Venture Capitalist A venture capitalist company is very often a subsidiary of a company that has significant cash holdings that they need to invest. The venture capitalist subsidiary is a high-risk, potentially high-return part of their investment portfolio. Hence, many banks will have venture capitalist subsidiaries. In order to attract venture capital funding an SME has to have a business idea that may create the high returns the venture capitalist is seeking. Hence, for many SMEs, operating in regular business, venture capitalist financing may not be possible. Furthermore, a venture capitalist rarely wants to remain invested in the long term and, hence, any proposal to them must show how they will be able to ‘exit’ or release their value after a number of years. This is often done by selling the company to a bigger company operating in the same trade or by growing the company to such a size that a stock exchange listing is possible. Supply chain financing In supply chain financing (SCF) the finance follows the value as it moves through the supply chain. SCF is relatively new and is different to traditional working capital financing methods, such as factoring or offering settlement discounts, because it promotes collaboration between buyers and sellers in the supply chain. Traditionally there was competition as the buyer wanted to take extended credit, and the seller wanted quick payment. SCF works very well where the buyer has a better credit rating than the seller. 81 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Crowdfunding Crowdfunding involves funding a venture by raising finance from a large number of people (the crowd) and is very often achieved over the internet. The internet platforms are set up and run by moderating organisations who bring together the project initiator with the idea, and those organisations and individuals who are willing to support the idea. A feature of crowdfunding is that it lets people search for and invest in ideas and projects that they have an interest or a belief in. Hence, these investors are sometimes willing to take bigger risks and/or accept lower returns than would be usual. A further feature is that, just as in a real crowd, there is potential for interaction within the crowd. Hence, keen supporters of a particular idea will very often encourage others to participate. Example Company A (which has an A+ credit rating) buys goods from Company B (which has a B+ credit rating). Co B has agreed to give Co A 30 days credit. Co B invoices Co A. Co A approves the invoice. Co A is expected to pay the amount due to its financial institution – ‘Bank C’ –in 30 days at which point the funds are immediately remitted to Co B. However, Co B can request the funds from Bank C prior to the due date. If they do this they receive the payment less a suitable discount. This discount is likely to be less than the discount charged if Co B used traditional factoring or invoice discounting. This is because they are using Bank C (Co A’s financial institution) and benefit from Co A’s higher credit rating as the debt is the debt of Co A, and by approving the invoice Co A has confirmed this. Equally, if Co A wants to delay payment beyond the 30-day point, then it can do so. However, when Co A does finally pay Bank C some interest will be due. Obviously this interest charge reflects the credit rating of Co A. WHY AND HOW DO GOVERNMENTS HELP FINANCE SMES? Governments are often keen to assist as to the extent that SMEs are unable to raise finance for their profitable projects, investment opportunities are potentially lost and, hence, national wealth is lower than it could be. Additionally, governments are keen to support innovation, which is one area where SMEs often excel, and are keen to support the growth of SMEs as this boosts employment. A number of key ways governments assist include the following: • Providing grants. • Providing tax breaks – for instance, tax incentives may be available to those willing to take the risk of investing in SMEs. • Providing advice – for instance, in Scotland there is a government-funded organisation known as ‘Business Gateway’, which provides assistance to those setting up and running a business, including advice on raising finance. • Guaranteeing loans – for instance, for a small fee from the SME, a large proportion of any loan advanced by a bank is guaranteed by the government. As this significantly reduces the risk to the bank, they are potentially more willing to lend. In the UK this is currently called the ‘Enterprise Finance Guarantee’ scheme. 82 Study Notes • Financial Management - FM Providing equity investment – many countries have government-backed venture capital organisations that are willing to invest in the equity of SMEs. This is often done on a matching basis, where the organisation will match any equity investment raised from other sources. In the UK this is done through ‘Enterprise Capital Funds’, while in the US there is the ‘Small Business Investment Company’ programme. Foreign Currency Risk Management - When dealing with converting FOREX it is important to consider the following points Always consider yourself at Adverse Position How Currency Fluctuate Supply & Demand • Speculation • Export and Import • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) • Foreign Currency Loans • Foreign Currency Remittance 83 Study Notes Financial Management - FM How Currency Fluctuate Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) It follows law of one price. Different commodities in two different currencies will have same price, if there is any difference that will be absorbed by exchange rate. According to PPP the exchange rate between two currencies can be explained by the difference between inflation rated in respective countries. PPP says country with HIGH inflation rate normally faces the decrease in its currencies value and a country with a LOW inflation rate has an expectation of increase in its currencies value. The businesses normally use PPP for calculation of expected spot rate against the forward rate offered by banks. Expected spot rate Future Spot rate= current spot rate × ( 1+ inflation of first currency) ( 1 + inflation of 2nd currency) How Currency Fluctuate Interest rate parity (IRP) This concept says that the difference between 2 currencies worth can be explained by interest rate structure in the countries of these 2 currencies. According to IRP a country with a high interest rate structure normally has a currency at discount in relation to another currency whose country has a low HIGH INTEREST in country LOWER will be the value of currency LOWER INTEREST in country HIGHER will be the value of currency Forward rate Forward rate = current spot rat rate x ( 1+ interest of first currency) (1 + interest of 2 nd currency) 84 Study Notes Financial Management - FM How Currency Fluctuate Fisher Effect This concept tells us the relation between interest rate and inflation. It assumes that real interest rate between two economies are same and because of inflation. nominal interest rates are different Countries with relatively high rate of inflation will generally have high nominal rates of interest, partly because high interest rates are a mechanism for reducing inflation. USA K [1+nominal (money) rate] = [1+ real rate] x [1+ inflation rate] [1+nominal (money) rate] = [1+ real rate] x [1+ inflation rate] Expectation Theory Future spot rate and forward rate should be equal. If temporary difference arises b/w these two rates it will be reduced due to expectation of investors over the time. For example – if forward rate is lower than future spot rate, investors will start buying in forward rates and starts selling in future spot markets. Until the difference is negligible. Four way equivalence theories 85 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Foreign Currency Risk Management Types of Foreign Exchange Risk Transaction Risk Transaction risk refers to adverse charges in the exchange rate between contract date and the settlement date. It is the risk that occurs in transactions where foreign currency is involved, for example exports 1 imports. Translation Risk Translation risk refers to the possibility of accounting loss that could occur because of foreign subsidiary, as a result of the conversion of the value aisssets and liabilities which are denominated in foreign currency, due to movements in exchange rate. This risk is involved where a parent company has foreign subsidiaries in a depreciating currency environment. Methods of Hedging FOREX Risk Translation Risk Economic Risk Arrange Maximum Borrowing in Subsidiary Co. currency. Maintain Surplus Assets in Parent Co. currency which will reduce the overall exposure of Translation risk. Long-term movement in the rate of exchange which puts the company at some competitive disadvantage is known as economic risk. E.g. if competitor currency stars depreciating or our company currency starts appreciating. It may affect a company's performance even if the company does not have any foreign currency transactions. Economic Risk Shift manufacturing to cheaper labor areas Create innovative and differentiate units to create brand loyalty Diversify into new products and into new markets Methods of Hedging FOREX Risk Transaction Risk - Internal Hedging Method • Invoice in Home Currency Should have bargaining power to negotiate • Matching Foreign Currency (Receipts and Payments) Timing and currencies should be same • Netting Netting is a process in which all transaction of group companies are converted into the same currencies and then credit balances are netted off against the debit balances, so that only reduced net amounts remain due to be paid or received. Leading and Lagging 86 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Methods of Hedging FOREX Risk Transaction Risk - External Hedging Method Forward Contract : A forward contract is a legally binding agreement between two parties to buy or sell currencies in future at pre dertemined rate and pre specified date. Example - Home Currency is British Pound £ , Exports receipts = $ 500,000 after six months Spot Rate = 1.30 – 1.31 $/£ Six month forward rate = 1.32 – 1.33 $/£ Expected Net Receipt if Forward Contract is taken = $500,000/1.33 = £ 375,940 Forward Contracts It is a legally binding contract between two parties to buy or sell in future at a pre-determined rate and a prespecified date. Advantages Eliminate currency risk, as foreign exchange costs are determined upfront. They are tailor made and can be matched against the time period of exposure as well as for the cash size of the exposure, therefore they are referred to as a complete hedge. They are easy to understand. Disadvantages It is subject to default risk. There may be difficult to find a counter-party. They are legally binding so difficult to cancel. Transaction Risk - External Hedging Method Money Market Hedging : Foreign Currency Receipts / Exports Steps: a) Calculate present value of foreign currency using borrowing rate of foreign currency and take loan of this amount. Present Value = Foreign Currency amount (1+ borrowing rate of FCY) b) Convert that present value into home currency using spot exchange rate. c) Deposit the home currency at the deposit rate of home currency. 87 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Total receipts= Home currency × ( 1 + lending rate of HCY ) Money Market Hedging : Foreign Currency Payments / imports Steps: a) Calculate present value of foreign currency using lending rate of foreign currency and deposit that amount. Present Value = Foreign Currency amount (1+ lending rate of FCY) b) Convert that present value into home currency using spot exchange rate. c) Borrow the home currency at the borrowing rate of home currency. Total payment= Home currency × ( 1 + borrowing rate of HCY ) Money Market Hedging A money market hedge is a mechanism for the delivery of foreign currency, at a future date, at a specified rate without recourse to the forward FOREX market. If a company is able to achieve preferential access to the short term money markets in the base and counter currency zones then it can be a cost effective substitute for a forward agreement. However, it is difficult to reverse quickly and is cumbersome to establish as it requires borrowing/lending agreements to be established denominated in the two currencies. With relatively small amounts, the OTC market represents the most convenient means of locking in exchange rates. Where cross border flows are common and business is well diversified across different currency areas then currency hedging is of questionable benefit. Where, as in this case, relatively infrequent flows occur then the simplest solution is to engage in the forward market for hedging risk. The use of a money market hedge as described may generate a more favorable forward rate than direct recourse to the forex market. However the administrative and management costs in setting up the necessary loans and deposits are a significant consideration. Derivatives • Future Settlement • Initial amount to be paid is nil or low • Drive their value from some underlying • Traded in two types of market (Over the counter Market & Exchange Traded Derivatives 88 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Methods of Hedging FOREX Risk Transaction Risk - External Hedging Method Future Contract • Futures are standardized contracts traded on a regulated exchange to make or take delivery of a specified quantity of a foreign currency, or a financial instrument at a specified price, with delivery or settlement at a specified future date. • They are available in major currencies and quoted against USD. • There are four settlement dates M ARC H ,J U N E ,S E P.T .DEC • Tick = minimum movement of future contract, 0.01% of contract size. • Basis= current spot rate - future rate • • • • • • These contracts are highly standardized both in size and in terms of their delivery mechanism. Physical delivery is very rare. Contracts are usually settled prior to the settlement date. An initial margin is required, a further mark-tomarket margin may be necessary. Standardized contracts Exchange traded derivatives are settled daily by settling the difference in the contracted price and the traded price in cash. This is called the mark-tomarket mechanism. No Default Risk More liquid in nature (e.g. futures contracts). Methods of Hedging FOREX Risk Option Contract TYPES: Currency options give the buyer the right but notCALL OPTION Right to buy at a specified rate the obligation to buy or sell a specific amount ofPUT OPTION Right to sell at a specified rate foreign currency at a specific exchange rate (the strike price) on or before a predetermined future date. For this protection, the buyer has to pay aOPTION BUYER OPTION HOLDER LONG POSITION premium. OPTION SELLER OPTION WRITER SHORT POISTION A currency option may be either a call option or a put option Currency option contracts limit the maximum lossAmerican Option - can be exercised at anytime before maturity to the premium paid up-front and provide theEuropean Option - can be exercised at maturity only. buyer with the opportunity to take advantage of favorable exchange rate movements. Interest Rate Risk Management Interest rate risk (IRR) can be explained as the impact on an institution’s financial condition if it is exposed to negative movements in interest rates. This risk can either be translated as an increase of interest payments that it has to make against borrowed funds or a reduction in income that it receives from invested funds. Methods of Hedging Interest Rate Risk • Forward rate Agreement (FRA) • Interest Rate Future 89 Study Notes • • • Financial Management - FM Options Interest Rate Swaps CAP, FLOOR & COLLAR Reasons for Interest Rate Fluctuation 1. RISK High risk, high return Low risk, low return No risk, some return 2. Need to make profit on re- lending The more the changing hands, more the interest rate (due to margins of intermediation) 3. Size of the loan More amount, more risk so more required interest rate Less amount, low risk so low interest rate. 4. Duration of the loan Longer the period, higher the risk and so high interest required Shorter the period, lower the risk and so lower the required interest 5. Types of financial assets and liabilities 6. Government policy Methods of hedging interest rate risk Forward rate Agreement (FRA) FRA is a contract in which two parties agree on interest rate to be paid on a notional amount at a specified future time. The “buyer” of FRA is partly wishing to protect itself against a rise in rates while the “seller” is a party protecting itself against an interest rate decline. FRAs can be used to hedge transactions of any size or maturity and offer an alternative ta interest rate futures for hedging purpose. FRAs do not involve any margin requirements. Interest rate set for FRA is reflection of the expectation of interest rate movements. Forward rate Agreement (FRA) EXAMPLE Company wants to borrow $10m in three months’ time for a period of 6 months. Company is expecting that interest rate will rise in future and wants to hedge its position using FRA. Following FRAs are available 3-6 6%-6.5% 3-9 7.5%-8% 90 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Calculate the effective interest rate if forward hedge is taken. If after three months interest rates are 10% 5% FRA In case if interest moves to 10% In case if interest moves to 5% Borrow from bank= 10% Borrow from bank= 5% Compare forward rate with actual interest rate. If actual is higher than bank will pay the difference Compare forward rate with actual interest rate. If actual is lower than bank will receive the difference Difference from bank=10%-8%=2% Difference from bank=5%-8%=3% Effective interest rate=8% Effective interest rate=8% Methods Of Hedging Interest Rate Risk Interest Rate Futures • An interest rate futures contract is a futures contract with an interest-bearing instrument as its underlying asset. The underlying asset could be Treasury bills and notes, certificates of deposit (CD), commercial paper (CP), etc. • IRF is an exchange traded derivative and has standard terms and conditions like contract size, settlement dates etc. • A borrowing company is concerned about a rise in interest rates and therefore, it will use an IRF to hedge against a rise in interest rates. Conversely, a depositing company will use an IRF to hedge against a fall in interest rates. Interest Rate Options An interest rate option is an option on a notional borrowing or a deposit which guarantees a minimum or a maximum rate of interest (called strike price) for the option holder. The option is settled in cash This product is available on payment of an upfront fee, called a premium. An interest rate call option guarantees the borrower a maximum rate of interest, whereas an interest rate put option guarantees the depositor a minimum rate of interest. Methods of Hedging Interest Rate Risk Interest Rate CAPS • An interest rate cap is a contract that enables companies with floating rate debt to limit or "cap" their exposure to rising interest rates. • A CAP fixed the interest rate to be paid on the borrowing. 91 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Interest Rate FLOOR • An interest rate floor is a series of European put options, that protects the lender against a decline in the floating interest rates • A floor guarantees that the interest rate received on a deposit will not be less than a specified level. Interest Rate COLLAR An interest rate collar is a combination of a cap and a floor transacted simultaneously. The buyer of an interest rate cap, purchases an interest rate cap while selling a floor indexed to the same interest rate, for the same amount and covering the same period. Interest Rate SWAP It’s instrument in which two parties agree to exchange interest rate cash flows based on a specified notional amount from a fixed rate to a floating rate (or vice versa) or from one floating rate to another called plain vanilla swap. 92 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Currency Swaps Advantages • Swaps are easy to arrange and are flexible since they can be arranged in any size and are reversible. • Transaction costs are low, only amounting to legal fees, since there is no commission or premium to be paid. • The parties can obtain the currency they require without subjecting themselves to the uncertainties of the foreign exchange markets. • The company can gain access to debt finance in another country and currency where it is little known, and consequently has a poorer credit rating, than in its home country. It can therefore take advantage of lower interest rates than it could obtain if it arranged the currency loan itself. • Currency swaps may be used to restructure the currency base of the company's liabilities. This may be important where the company is trading overseas and receiving revenues in foreign currencies, but its borrowings are denominated in the currency of its home country. Currency swaps therefore provide a means of reducing exchange rate exposure. • At the same time as exchanging currency, the company may also be able to convert fixed rate debt to floating rate or vice versa. Thus it may obtain some of the benefits of an interest rate swap in addition to achieving the other purposes of a currency swap. Disadvantages • If one party became unable to meet its swap payment obligations, this could mean that the other party risked having to make them itself. • A company whose main business lies outside the field of finance should not increase financial risk in order to make speculative gains. • There may be a risk of political disturbances or exchange controls in the country whose currency is being used for a swap. • Swaps have arrangement fees payable to third parties. Although these may appear to be cheap, this is because the intermediary accepts no liability for the swap. (However, the third party does suffer some spread risk, as it warehouses one side of the swap until it is matched with the other, and then undertakes a temporary hedge on the futures market.) 93 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Working Capital Management Definition Working capital is current assets less current liabilities. It is the capital available to conduct day to day operations of business Current Assets Inventory Receivables Cash Current Liabilities Payables Overdraft Liquidity Liquidity is availability of cash for day to day activities. How it is ensured? By maintaining liquid assets and liabilities. E.g. Maintaining cash balance, having a line of credit Liquidity Vs Profitability There is always a conflict between liquidity and profitability. If we maintain more liquid assets, profitability will be reduced. If we maintain less liquid assets, profitability will be increased as more assets are invested but risk of insolvency increased Working Capital Management It is the management of both current assets and current liabilities to minimize risk of insolvency and to maximize return on assets. Objective: Working capital facilitates two main objectives To ensure business has enough liquid resources to reduce risk of insolvency To increase return on assets This can be achieved by holding optimum level of investments in working capital. To minimize investment in working capital, it will reduce the overdraft cost because lower funds will be required To minimize working capital cycle, by quickly moving items around working capital cycle. 94 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Working capital cycle Measure in Days, Weeks and Months Short Conversion Cycle is a good sign Current Assets Current Liabilities 95 Study Notes Financial Management - FM LIQUIDTY RATIOS Current Ratio It is used to assess the ability of business to pay, what it owes. It also indicates margin of safety. This ratio depicts that how much we have in current assets to pay $1 of current liabilities. Current Ratio of 2:1 is usually considered good. This ratio depicts that how much we have in current assets to pay $1 of current liabilities. Current Ratio of 2:1 is usually considered good. Quick Ratio (Acid Test) If we want to have a more conservative view of liquidity, we exclude inventory from current assets as it takes longer to convert inventory into cash. Quick Ratio of 1:1 is a sign Current Ratio & Quick Ratio Current ratio Current assets Current liabilities Quick ratio Current assets less inventory Current liabilities Accounts receivable payment period Accounts receivable payment period Accounts receivable days or =Avg receivables x 365 days Credit sales Receivable turnover = Credit Sales Average receivable (in times) 96 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Inventory Turnover Period Inventory turnover = Cost of sales (in times) Average inventory Inventory turnover period (Finished goods)= Average inventory x365 days Cost of sales Where Average inventory = Opening balance + Closing balance 2 Raw materials inventory holding period =Average raw materials x 365 day Annual purchases Average work-in-progress period Generally closing balances will be considered as average balances. If not mentioned, all the sales and purchases are considered to be on credit. In the absence of purchases, Cost of sales will be used. If not given, all inventory will be considered as finished goods =Average WIP x 365days Cost of sales×% of completion Accounts payable payment period & Sales revenue/net working capital ratio Accounts payable payment period =Average trade payables x 365days Purchases or cost of sales Payable turnover = Credit purchases ( in times) Average payables Sales to Working capital ratio = Sales Working Capital Over Trading “A business which is trying to do too much too quickly with too little long-term capital is overtrading” Symptoms of over trading: Rapid increase in turnover. Rapid increase in the volume of current assets and possibly also non-current assets. High Inventory and accounts receivable period. Only a small increase in equity capital. Most of the increase in assets is financed by credit, especially: Trade accounts payable 97 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Bank overdraft Some debt and liquidity ratios alter dramatically. Current ratio and quick ratio fall Business might have a liquid deficit i.e. an excess of current liabilities over current assets. Proportion of total assets financed by equity capital falls and the proportion financed by credit rise. Sales/working capital ratio is increasing over time, working capital should increase in line with sales. Solution to Overtrading New capital could be injected from shareholders The growth can be financed through long-term loans. Better control could be applied to management of inventories and accounts receivable. The company could postpone ambitious plans for increased sales and fixed asset investment. Over Capitalized “If there are excessive inventories, accounts receivable and cash and very few accounts payable, there will be an overinvestment by company in current assets and the company will be in this respect over-capitalized.” Symptoms: Rapid increase in turnover. Rapid increase in the volume of current assets e.g. inventory and receivable . High Inventory and accounts receivable period. Not much rise in Trade accounts payable and overdraft. Current ratio and quick ratio rise significantly. Current assets are more than current liabilities Sales/working capital ratio is decreasing over time, working capital should be increased in line with sales. 98 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Inventory Management Inventory Costs Holding Costs Ordering costs Stock out costs Cost of inventory Ordering costs Contribution from lost sales Purchase Cost Deterioration cost Delivery costs Extra cost of emergency inventory Obsolescence cost Freight Charges Reputation loss Warehousing handling costs and Insurance cost Pilferage cost Economic Order Quantity 2×annual demand × per order cost/Holding cost per unit EOQ focuses on two costs Holding costs = Holding cost per unit × order quantity/2 Ordering Costs = per order cost × Annual demand/order quantity EOQ Example Example: Annual demand is 200,000 units Per order cost is 20$ Holding cost is 0.2$ per unit Purchase price is 1$/unit Current order quantity= 50,000 units What is the total cost if order quantity remains at 50,000 ? Purchase cost =1$×200,000=$200,000 Ordering cost=20$×200,000/50,000=80$ Holding cost=0.2×50,000/2=$5000 Total cost= $205080 99 Study Notes Financial Management - FM EOQ Example (Continued) What is the total cost of inventory if company follows EOQ model ? EOQ=2×200,000×20/0.2 =60325 Ordering cost=20$×200,000/6325=632$ Holding cost=0.2×6325/2=$632 Total cost= $201,264 Supplier has offered 1% discount if order quantity is at least 30,000 units What is the total cost if company accept the supplier’s offer.? Purchase cost =1$× 200,000×0.99=$198,000 Ordering cost=20$×200,000/30,000=133$ Holding cost=0.2×30,000/2=$3000 Total cost= $201,133 Assumptions of using EOQ The following assumptions are applicable in EOQ which limits its applicability: Demand and lead time are assumed to remain constant. Purchase price is also assumed to remain No buffer inventory Holding costs are assumed to be constant. Other formulas to remember Re-order level = Maximum usage x Maximum lead time Maximum inventory level = Re-order level + re-order quantity – (minimum usage x minimum lead time) Buffer safety inventory = Re-order level – (average usage x average lead time) Average inventory level = Buffer safety inventory + Re-order amount 2 JIT (Just-in-Time) Procurement Just-in-time procurement is a term which describes a policy of obtaining goods from suppliers at the latest possible time, so avoiding the need to carry any inventory level. The objective is zero inventory level which results in zero holding costs. Advantages Reduction in inventory holding costs Reduced manufacturing lead times Disadvantages Just-in-time manufacturing system is vulnerable to unexpected disruptions in supply chain. A production line can quickly come to a halt if essential parts are unavailable JIT can only be implemented in case of reliable suppliers that are located close Improved labor productivity Reduced scrap/rework/warranty costs. 100 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Accounts Receivable Management Major roles of credit control department/Receivable management. To formulate credit policies Lenient policy Strict policy Early settlement discount Assess credit worthiness of customers Collection of debt from customers efficiently Collection of overdue debt Receivable as sources of finance Factoring Invoice discounting Foreign receivable management Cost of Receivable o Administrative cost to record and collecting debts o Cost of irrecoverable debts (Sales X % of bad debt) o Cost of early Settlement Discount = (Sales X % of discount X % of customers taken the discount) o Finance Cost (Average Receivable X % of interest rate) Advantages and Disadvantages of using different polices for Receivables Management Lenient Policy Strict policy Advantages Disadvantages Increase in contribution Decrease in potential bad debt Decrease in administration cost Less overdraft cost Increase in potential bad debt Decrease in contribution High overdraft cost Increase in administration cost 101 Study Notes Financial Management - FM How to tackle in Exam Current Policy Cost of Proposed policy receivables=(Credit sales x 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝟑𝟔𝟓 )× Cost of receivables=(Credit sales x OD Interest rate Contribution =Sales × C/S ratio% OD Interest rate Contribution =Sales × C/S ratio% Bad debt = sales × % of bad debt Bad debt = sales × % of bad debt Admin cost Admin cost Total cost/Benefit Total cost/Benefit Early Settlement Discount Current Policy 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝟑𝟔𝟓 )× Proposed Policy Cost of receivables=(Credit sales x 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝟑𝟔𝟓 )× OD Cost of receivables 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 Interest rate =(Credit sales x Contribution = Sales × C/S ratio% OD Interest rate Cost of receivables =(Credit sales x 𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝟑𝟔𝟓 availing discount )× % of availing discount x not availing discount )× % of not availing Admin cost discount x OD rate Discount allowed= Sales × % of discount × % of availing discount Contribution = Sales × C/S ratio% Total cost Bad debt = sales × % of bad debt Bad debt=sales×% of bad debt Admin cost Total cost Cost of Early Settlement Discount The percentage cost of early settlement discount to the company offering the discount can be calculated by the following formula Cost of early settlement discount= ( 100 100−𝑑 )^365/t -1 Where d = discount offered t = reduction in payment period in days that is necessary to obtain early payment discount 102 Study Notes Financial Management - FM ASSESSING CREDITWORTHINESS methods Bank reference While a bank reference can be fairly easily obtained, it must be remembered that the other company is the bank’s customer and so a bank reference will stick to the facts. It is most unlikely to raise any fears the bank may have about the company Trade reference This is obtained from another company who has dealings with your potential customer/customer. Due to the litigious nature of society these days, it may not be so easy to obtain a written reference. However, you may be able to call contacts you have in the trade and obtain an informal oral reference ASSESSING CREDITWORTHINESS methods Financial Statements Financial statements of a company are publicly available information and can be quickly and easily obtained. While an analysis of the financial statements may indicate whether or not a company should be granted credit, it must be remembered that the financial statements available could be out of date and may have suffered from manipulation. For larger companies, an analysis of their accounting information can generally be found through various sources on the internet Visit Visiting a potential new customer to discuss their exact needs is likely to impress the customer with regard to your desire to provide a good service. At the same time, it gives you the opportunity to get a feel for whether or not the business is one which you are happy to give credit to. While it is not a very scientific approach, it can often work quite well, as anyone who runs their own successful business is likely to know what a good business looks, feels and smells like! Credit rating/reference agency These agencies’ professional business is to sell information about companies and individuals. Hence, they will be keen to give you the best possible information, so you are more likely to return and use their services again ASSESSING CREDITWORTHINESS methods Information from the financial media Information in the national and local press, and in suitable trade journals and on the internet, may give an indication of the current situation of a company. For example, if it has been reported that a large contract has been lost or that one or more directors has left recently, then this may indicate that the company has problems 103 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Collection of Receivables Collection of overdue debt Collection of funds efficiently The customer is fully aware of the terms The invoice is correctly drawn up and issued promptly. They are aware of any potential quirks in the customer’s system Queries are resolved quickly Monthly statements are issued promptly Instituting reminders or final demands Chasing payment by telephone Making a personal approach Notifying debt collection section Handling over debt collection to specialist debt collection section Instituting legal action to recover the debt Hiring external debt collection agency to recover debt. Debt Factoring Factoring is an arrangement to have debts collected by a factor company, which advances a proportion of the money it is due to collect. Factoring can be used to help short-term liquidity or to reduce administrative costs. Aspects of Factoring The main aspects of factoring include the following Administration of the client’s invoicing, sales accounting and debt collection service. Credit protection for the client’s debts, whereby the factor takes over the risk of loss from bad debts ad so insures the client against such losses. This is knows as non-recourse service. Making payments to the client in advance of collecting the debts. This is referred to as ‘factor finance’ Applying Debt Factoring Before Factoring Cost of receivables=(Credit sales x OD Interest rate After factoring 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝟑𝟔𝟓 )× Cost of Factor advance =(Credit sales x 𝟑𝟔𝟓 )× % of factor advance x Factor Interest rate Cost of remaining receivable =(Credit sales x Bad debt = sales × % of bad debt 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝑨𝒄𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔 𝟑𝟔𝟓 )× % of remaining finance x OD Interest rate Factor fee = Sales × % of fee Bad debt = sales × % of bad debt ( if with recourse) Admin cost Admin cost Total cost Total cost 104 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Example of Debt Factoring A company makes annual credit sales of $1,500,000. Credit terms are 30 days, but its debt administration has been poor and the average collection period has been 45 days with 0.5% of sales resulting in bad debts which are written off. A factor would take on the task of debt administration and credit checking, at an annual fee of 2.5% of credit sales. The company would save $30,000 a year in administration costs. The payment period would be 30 days. It is assumed that the factor would advance an amount equal to 80% of the invoiced debts, and the balance 30 days later. The factor would also provide an advance of 80% of invoiced debts at an interest rate of 14% (3% over the current base rate). The company can obtain an overdraft facility to finance its accounts receivable at a rate of 2.5% over base rate. Required: Should the factor's services be accepted? Assume a constant monthly turnover. Solution (a) The current situation is as follows, using the company’s debt collection staff and a bank overdraft to finance all debts. Credit sales Average credit period $1,500,000 pa 45 days The annual cost is as follows: 45/365 x $1,500,000 x 13.5% (11% + 2.5%) Bad debts 0.5% x $1,500,000 Administration costs Total cost $ 24,966 7,500 30,000 62,466 Solution (b) The cost of the factor. 80% of credit sales financed by the factor would be 80% of $1,500,000 = $1,200,000. For a consistent comparison, we must assume that 20% of credit sales would be financed by a bank overdraft. The average credit period would be only 30 days. The annual cost would be as follows. Factor’s finance 30/365 x $1,200,000 x 14% Overdraft 30/365 x $300,000 x 13.5% Cost of factor’s services: 2.5% x $1,500,000 Cost of the factor $ 13,808 3,329 17,137 37,500 54,637 105 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Solution (c) Conclusion. The factor is cheaper. In this case, the factor’s fees exactly equal the savings in bad debts ($7,500) and administration costs ($30,000). The factor is then cheaper overall because it will be more efficient at collecting debts. The advance of 80% of debts is not needed, however, if the company has sufficient overdraft facility because the factor’s finance charge of 14% is higher than the company’s overdraft rate of 13.5%. Advantages & Disadvantages Advantages Business can pay its suppliers on time and so be able to take advantage of early payment discounts. Optimum inventory level can be maintained because management will have enough cash. Growth can be financed through sales rather than injecting new capital The cost of running sales ledger department is over. Business can use the expertise of debtor management that the factor specializes. Management time is saved because managers don’t have to spend their time on debtor management. Business gets its finance linked to its volume of sales Disadvantages Factoring is likely to be more costly than an efficiently run internal credit control department. Customers may not like to deal with factors. Company loses control to decide to whom to grant credit period and the length of credit period for each customer Once a company hires a factor, it is difficult to go back to an internal credit control system again. Factoring may have a bad reputation for the company. It may indicate that the company has financial issues. Invoice Discounting Invoice discount is the purchase of trade debts at a discount by the providers of the discounting service. Invoice discount and factoring are linked and mostly factors also provide invoice discounting service too. It involves the purchase of a selection of invoices by the factor at a discount but the invoice discounter doesn’t take over administration of the client’s sales ledger. Confidential invoice discounting is an arrangement whereby a debt is assigned to the factor confidentially and the client’s customer will only become aware of the arrangement if he doesn’t pay his debt to client. Non-confidential invoice discount is an arrangement whereby the client’s customer is aware of the relationship of factor to client and acknowledges its liability towards factor. Managing Foreign Accounts Receivables REDUCING INVESTMENT IN FOREIGN ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE FORFAITING LETTER OF CREDIT COUNTERTRADING 106 Study Notes Financial Management - FM EXPORT CREDIT INSURANCE EXPORT FACTORING Managing Foreign Accounts Receivables REDUCING INVESTMENT IN FOREIGN ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE A company can reduce its investment in foreign accounts receivable by asking for full or part payment in advance of supplying goods. However this may be resisted by consumers, particularly if competitors do not ask for payment up front. Forfaiting Forfaiting involves the purchase of foreign accounts receivable from the seller by a forfaiter. The forfaiter takes on all of the credit risk from the transaction (without recourse) and therefore the forfaiter purchases the receivables from the seller at a discount. The purchased receivables become a form of debt instrument (such as bills of exchange) which can be sold on the money market. The non-recourse side of the transaction makes this an attractive arrangement for businesses, but as a result the cost of forfaiting is relatively high. LETTER OF CREDIT This is a further way of reducing the investment in foreign accounts receivable and can give a business a risk-free method of securing payment for goods or services. There are a number of steps in arranging a letter of credit: Both parties set the terms for the sale of goods or services The purchaser (importer) requests their bank to issue a letter of credit in favor of the seller (exporter) The letter of credit is issued to the seller’s bank, guaranteeing payment to the seller once the conditions specified in the letter have been complied with The goods are dispatched to the customer and the shipping documentation is sent to the purchaser’s bank The bank then issues a banker’s acceptance Letter of Credit (Continued) The seller can either hold the banker’s acceptance until maturity or sell it on the money market at a discounted value It takes significant amount of time and therefore are slow to arrange. The use of letters of credit may be considered necessary if there is a high level of non-payment risk. Customers with a poor or no credit history may not be able to obtain a letter of credit from their own bank. Letters of credit are costly to customers and also restrict their flexibility: Collection under a letter of credit depends on the conditions in the letter being fulfilled. Collection only occurs if the seller presents exactly the documents stated in the conditions. COUNTERTRADING In a countertrade arrangement, goods or services are exchanged for other goods or services instead of for cash. The benefits of countertrading include the fact that it facilitates conservation of foreign currency and can help a business enter foreign markets that it may not otherwise be able to. 107 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Disadvantage The value of the goods or services received in exchange may be uncertain. It includes complex negotiations and logistical issues, particularly if a countertrade deal involves more than two parties. EXPORT CREDIT INSURANCE Export credit insurance protects a business against the risk of non-payment by a foreign customer. Exporters can protect their foreign accounts receivable against a number of risks which could result in non-payment. Export credit insurance usually insures insolvency of the purchaser or slow payment, insures against certain political risks, for example war, and riots. Disadvantages include the relatively high cost of premiums and the fact that the insurance does not typically cover 100% of the value of the foreign sales. EXPORT FACTORING An export factor provides the same functions in relation to foreign accounts receivable as a factor covering domestic accounts receivable and therefore can help with the cash flow of a business. However, export factoring can be more costly than export credit insurance and it may not be available for all countries, particularly developing countries. GENERAL POLICIES FOR FOREIGN ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE None of the methods detailed above would allow the selling company to escape from the basic fact that credit should only be given to customers who are creditworthy. Managing Accounts Payable There are three main objectives of accounts payable management. Seeking satisfactory credit terms from suppliers. Extending credit period during periods of cash shortage. Maintaining good relationships with suppliers. Trade Credit The cost of lost cash discount can be calculated by the following formula Cost of early settlement discount= ( 100 100−𝑑 ) ^365/t -1 Example: Product Q The annual demand for Product Q is 456,000 units per year and Plot Co buys in this product at $1 per unit on 60 days credit. The supplier has offered an early settlement discount of 1% for settlement of invoices within 30 days. Plot Co finances working capital with short-term finance costing 5% per year. Assume that there are 365 days in each year. Calculate the net value in dollars to Plot Co of accepting the early settlement discount for Product Q. 108 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Managing Cash Objective of holding Cash: John Maynard Keynes identified three reasons for holding cash. Transactions Motive: Every business needs cash to meet its regular commitments of paying its accounts payable like employee wages, taxes, annual dividends … Precautionary motive: There is a need to maintain a ‘buffer of cash for unforeseen contingencies. Speculative Motive: Sometimes businesses hold surplus cash as a speculative asset in the hope that interest rates will rise in future. Problems associated with cash flows: Making losses If a business is continually making losses, it will eventually have cash flow problems. Inflation Even if a business is making a profit, it can still face cash flow problems in during period of inflation. Growth During periods of growth, business has an ever increasing need for more non-current assets and for its increasing working capital Seasonal business When a business has seasonal or cyclical sales, it may have cash flow difficulties at certain times during the year. One-off items of expenditure Sometimes, a single non-recurring item of expenditure may create a cash flow problem. Managing Cash Flow Problems Cash flow problems can be eased by taking a number of steps Postponing capital expenditure: Some capital expenditures can be postponed for a year or so without serious effect on company’s long term performance. Accelerating cash inflows: Business can encourage its account receivables to pay early through discounts on early payments. Reversing past investments: Some assets that are not crucial for business survival can be sold during period of severe cash flow problem Negotiations with accounts payable: This involves the following Longer credit can be taken from suppliers 109 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Loan repayments can be rescheduled through negotiations with bank Dividend payment can be reduced Cash Flow Forecasts Months 1 2 3 4 Receivable Collection X X X X Dividends Received X X X X Sale of non-current assets X X X X Trade payable payment (X) (X) (X) (X) Purchase of non-current assets (X) (X) (X) (X) Wages (X) (X) (X) (X) Net Cash Flows X X X X Opening Balance X X X X Closing Balance X X X X Cash Inflows Cash Outflow Treasury Management Treasury management can be defined as Corporate handling of all financial matters, The generation of external and internal funds for business, The management of currencies and cash flows, The complex strategies, Policies and procedures of corporate finance Treasury department can be centralized or decentralized in an organization depending on its needs. Both have certain advantages associated with them. Advantages of Centralized Treasure Department Large volume of cash is available to invest, leading to better short-term investment opportunities. Borrowing can be arranged in bulk at lower interest rate. Foreign exchange risk management will be improved through matching foreign currency income earned by one subsidiary with expenditure in the same currency by another subsidiary. Treasure management will be efficient because a centralized treasury department can employ experts. Liquidity management will be improved through centralized treasury department It avoids having a mix of cash surpluses and overdrafts in different localized banks It facilitates bulk cash flow which will result in less transaction costs. 110 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Advantages of Decentralized Treasury Management Greater autonomy will be given to subsidiaries A decentralized treasury function may be more responsive to the needs of individual operating units. Sources of finance will be diversified Objective of holding Cash: John Maynard Keynes identified three reasons for holding cash. Transactions Motive: Every business needs cash to meet its regular commitments of paying its accounts payable like employee wages, taxes, annual dividends … Precautionary motive: There is a need to maintain a ‘buffer of cash for unforeseen contingencies. Speculative Motive: Sometimes businesses hold surplus cash as a speculative asset in the hope that interest rates will rise in future Cash Management (The Baumol model) The Baumol model is based on the idea that an optimum cash balance is like deciding an optimum inventory level. It uses the same EOQ formula that is used to calculate the optimum inventory level Q = 2CS I Where Q = Optimum amount of cash to be raised S = Amount of cash to be used in each time period C = Cost per sale of securities I = Interest cost of holding cash or near cash equivalents (Interest rate on new borrowings – interest earned on cash investment) EXAMPLE Finder Co faces a fixed cost of $4,000 to obtain new funds. There is a requirement for $24,000 of cashover each period of one year for the foreseeable future. The interest cost of new funds is 12% per annum; the interest rate earned on short-term securities is 9% per annum. Required: How much finance should Finder raise at a time? Solution The cost of holding cash is 12% - 9% = 3% The optimum level of Q (the ‘recorder quantity) is: 2 x 4,000 x 24,000 = $80,000 0.03 The optimum amount of new funds to raise is $80,000. This amount is raised every 80,000 ÷ 24,000 = 31/3 years. 111 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Advantages & Disadvantages Advantages The Baumol model enables companies to find out their desirable level of cash balance under certain assumed conditions. It recognizes the cost of holding extra cash. Disadvantages It is unlikely to be possible to predict amounts required over future periods. No buffer inventory of cash is allowed. There may be a number of other costs associated with holding cash The Miller-Orr Model The miller-Orr model focuses on an optimum amount of cash that a company should held which is called return point. The model then sets an upper and lower limit of cash balances which should not be crossed. If a company reaches an upper limit, it should buy market securities to return to the “return point” and if it reaches lower limit, it should sell some securities to reach to the “return point”. Calculating the Return Point Spread = 3 ( 3 x transaction cost x variance of cash flows )1/3 4 Interest rate Return point = Lower limit + ( 1 x Spread) 3 112 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Example The following data applies to a company. The minimum cash balance is $8,000. The variance of daily cash flows is 4,000,000, equivalent to a standard deviation of $2,000 per The transaction cost for buying or selling securities is $50. The interest rate is 0.025 per cent day. Required: You are required to formulate a decision rule using the Miller-Orr model. Solution The spread between the upper and the lower cash balance limits is calculated as follows. Spread = 3 ( 3x transaction cost x variance cash flows)1/3 4 interest rate = 3 ( 3x 50 x 4,000,000)1/3 = 3 x (6 x 1011)1/3 = 3 x 8,434.33 4 0.00025 = $25,303, say $25,300 The upper limit and return point are now calculated. Upper limit = Lower limit + $25,000 = $8,000 + $25,300 = $33,300 Return point = lower limit + 1/3 x spread = $8,000 + 1/3 x $25,300 = $16,433, say 16,400 The decision rule is as follows. If the cash balance reaches $33,300, buy $16,900 (= 33,300 – 16,400) in marketable securities. If the cash balance falls to $8,000, sell $8,400 of marketable securities for cash. Working Capital Investment Policy A company can adopt a working capital strategy for managing its working capital depending on the important risks associated with working capitals. It can choose from three different working capital strategies. These strategies are as follows: Conservative Approach Aggressive Approach Rate Approach Conservative Approach “A conservative working capital management policy aims to reduce the risk of system breakdown by holding high levels of working capital” Customers are allowed generous payments terms to stimulate demand, Finished goods inventories are high to ensure availability for customers, Raw material and work in progress are high Suppliers are paid promptly to ensure their goodwill. 113 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Aggressive & Management Approach Aggressive Approach “An aggressive working capital management policy aims to reduce financing cost and increase profitability: by cutting inventories to kept it at minimum level. speeding up collections: Moderate Approach A moderate working capital management policy is a middle way between the aggressive and conservative approaches. Customers are allowed a limited payment period and discounts are given for prompt payment delaying payments to supplier. Working Capital Financing Policy Assets can be divided into three types in order to understand different working capital management strategies Non-current assets: These are long term assets from which an organization expects to derive benefit over a number of periods. For example, plant and machinery Permanent current assets: This is the amount required to meet minimum long-term needs and sustain normal trading activity. For example, inventory and average receivables… Fluctuating current assets: These are current assets which vary according to normal business activity. Example include fluctuate in working capital due to seasonal variations Conservative Approach Policy A can be characterized as a conservative approach to finance working capital where all non-current assets, permanent current assets and part of fluctuating current assets are financed by long-term funding 114 Study Notes Financial Management - FM Aggressive Approach Policy B can be characterized as an aggressive approach to finance working capital where non-current assets and some part of permanent current assets are financed through long-term borrowings while fluctuating current assets and part of permanent current assets are financed through short-term sources Moderate Approach Policy C describes a balance between risk and return which might be best achieved by moderate approach. In this case, long-term sources of finance are used to finance permanent current assets while short-term sources of finance are used to finance fluctuating current assets. 115