Commodity Futures FM 404 Prof. Preeta Sinha Commodity Futures • Commodity futures have the spot price of the commodity as underlying asset. They range from agricultural products such as wheat, rice, sugar etc to metals such as gold ,silver, rubber, coffee etc to energy products such as oil , furnace oil etc.on these commodities. Futures on these commodities help mitigate price risk. The functioning of commodities exchange in India is regulated by Forward a market commission (FMC) • Holding the asset (Long Position)--- Price decline ---- Short (sell) Futures • Not holding asset (Short Position) ----Price increase---- Long(buy) Futures Benefits of Commodities Futures • • • • • Price discovery Seasonal Volatility Reducing cost of credit More efficient Physical Market Stability to Govt Revenue Difference between commodity and Financial Futures • • • • Valuation Delivery and Settlement Contract features and life Supply and consumption pattern Futures contract on commodities Significant differences of the commodity futures to financial futures arises due to two factors: 1) Quality attributes of the commodity 2) Procedure for settlement for delivery-Delivery Quality, place of delivery etc Pricing Commodity Futures Cost of carry can be defined as the net cost of holding a position . Commodities generally have storage costs, which can be treated as negative income or a negative yield. For continuous compounding the fair price of the futures is given byF1 = S0 X ert Where, F1 = Futures contract price S0 = Spot price of the commodity r = cost of carry (storage cost, warehousing cost etc) t= time Q.1) Assume that spot price of gold is Rs.14,000 per tola (1 tola= 10 gm). If financing cost is 12% per annum with continuous compounding. what should be the price of the 2 months futures contract on gold? If warehousing and insurance cost are placed at 3% per annum what would be the fair price of the futures contract? F1 = S0 X ert r =12% + 3%= 15% t= 2/12 Soln: F1 = S0 X ert F1 =? S0 = Rs.14000 , r =12% , t= 2/12 F1 = 14000 X 2.710.12x2/12 = Rs.14,282.82 per 10 gm warehousing and insurance cost would be added to the financing cost for the determination of fair value of the futures r= 12+ 3= 15% F1 = 14000 X 2.710.15x2/12 = Rs.14,354.41 per 10 gm Class work Q.2) Assume that spot price of cardamom is Rs.714 per kg. If financing cost is 10% per annum with continuous compounding. what should be the price of the 3 months futures contract on cardamom? If warehousing and insurance cost are placed at 1% per annum what would be the fair price of the futures contract? Soln: F1 = 714 X 2.710.10x3/12 = 732.07 F1 = 714 X 2.710.11x3/12 = 733.91 Speculation with commodity Futures • Futures can be used for speculation if the estimate of the future spot price is different than the futures price. • The Initial margins are required to book futures contract than to take equivalent position in the spot or cash market. To speculate on the prices of commodities one has to do one of the following: 1) If a trader expects a price fall ,he simply has to sell a futures contract today and buy it later 2) If a trader expects a rise in price ,he simply has to buy a futures contract today and sell it later Spread Strategies with futures Spread strategies are concerned with the mispricing of futures contracts in two assets, in two markets or of two different maturities. Spread trading is speculation on price differential between two contracts and involves buying one futures and selling another. • 1) Intercommodity spread: Buying a future contract in one commodity and selling another in a related commodity. Ex: buying gold futures and selling silver futures if the trader feels that the gold is underpriced as compared to silver today and by the time the futures matures, the market will restore the balance in the prices of gold and silver. Crude oil vs. heating oil – Crude oil vs. gasoline – Crude oil vs. heating oil + gasoline – Soybeans vs. soybean oil – Soybeans vs. soybean meal 2) Intermarket spread: It involves opposite position in the same commodity but at different market. Ex: Buying cumin futures at NCDEX at Rs. 6,000 per kg and selling at Rs. 6,050 per kg at MCX 3) Time/ Calender Spread: It involves opposite position in the same commodity on the same exchange with different maturity dates. Ex: Consider the prices of cumin futures in NCDEX for Oct, Nov and Dec are 6,000, 6,150 and 6,200. The price differential in Nov and Oct is 150 (6,150-6,000) while the differential in Dec and Nov contracts is Rs.50 (6,200-6,150). Hence at differential of Rs.150, Dec futures is underpriced ,we can go long on Dec futures and short on Nov futures. Example of Intercommodity spread and Calender spread Futures market can serve the useful purpose of protecting the gross profit margin in the short run for small and frequent changes in the prices of inputs and outputs. Ex: Consider a sugar mill that use sugarcane for producing sugar.100kg of sugarcane yields 9 kg of sugar and it takes about a month for converting sugarcane into sugar.2-m futures on sugarcane is 180/quintal and 3-m futures contract on sugar is Rs.25/kg. Assume basis as zero at the end of 2 month( Future price at T=2m =Spot price at T=2m).Determine the aggregate profit under the following scenario: a) Spot price of Sugar(T=3m)=Rs.22/kg, Spot price of Sugarcane (at T=2m)=Rs190/quintal b) Spot price of Sugar(T=3m)=Rs.27/kg, Spot price of Sugarcane(T=2m)=Rs.170/kg, • Soln: Gross profit= Price of 9 kg of sugar- cost of 1 quintal of sugarcane. The sugar mill needs to buy sugarcane and sell sugar. Exposure can be hedged by going short on future contract on sugar (holds a long position and anticipates the price to fall)and going long on futures contract on sugarcane (holds short position and anticipates the price to rise).therefore to hedge the gross profit margin the sugar mill will take simultaneous position of a) Long on future contract on sugarcane b) short on futures of sugar Hedging for Gross profit T=0 T=2m Buy 2-m sugarcane futures Buy Sell Sugarcane 3-m sugar futures with 9% exposure in sugarcane futures Sell sugarcane futures T=3m Sell Sugar Buy Sugar futures Hedging for gross profit: Sugar Mill Price scenario Sugarcane Rs.190/quintal Rs.170/quintal Sugar Rs.22/kg Rs.27/kg Bought at 180 180 Sold at 190 170 10 -10 Sold at 25 25 Bought at 22 27 b) Profit/loss on sugar futures 9X3=27 9X(-2)= -18 c) Profit on futures contract(a+b) 37 -28 Price realised for sugar 9X22= 198 9X27= 243 Price paid for sugarcane 190 170 d) Gross Profit on spot position 8 73 Aggregate profit(c+d) 45 45 Sugarcane futures a) Profit/loss on sugarcane futures Sugar Futures Spot position Calender spread with commodity Futures Q.3) The spot price of crude oil is Rs. 3,000 per barrel. In the futures market 3 months and 6 months contract are trading at Rs. 3,125 and Rs. 3,200. The cost of carry (r) inclusive of storage and insurance is placed at 15% per annum. If cost of carry model applies find the following: a) Fair price of the futures contract for 3 months and 6 months. What action can an arbitrageur take in this situation? b) If at the end of 3 months the spot price were Rs.3,500 and the future market stood corrected, what would be the profit of the arbitrageur? c) ) If at the end of months the spot price were Rs.2,700 and the future market stood corrected, what would be the profit of the arbitrageur? a)The fair price of 3 months and 6 months futures with cost of carry 15% and spot rate of Rs. 3,000 F1 = S0 X ert F3 = 3000 X e0.15X3/12 = Rs.3,111.64, Actual Price = 3,125 F6 = 3000 X e0.15X6/12 =Rs. 3,233.64 Actual Price = 3,200 An arbitrageur would act as follows: • 3-m future is overvalued and must be sold • 6-m future is undervalued and must be bought c)If at the end of three months the spot price increased to Rs.2700 and future price stand corrected then the fair value of future would be Rs.2700 and Rs.2803 (2700 X e0.15tx3/12 ) at which the investors square off . The position of investors would be: Original 3 m futures Sold at 3125 Bought at 2700 Profit/loss +425 Original 6 m futures Bought at 3200 sold at 2803 Profit/loss -397 Net profit on the calender spread Rs.28 b)If at the end of three months the spot price increased to Rs.3500 and future price stand corrected then the fair value of future would be Rs.3,500 and Rs.3,634 (3500 X e0.15tx3/12 ) at which the investors square off . The position of investors would be: Original 3 m futures Sold at 3,125 Bought at 3,500 Profit/loss -375 Original 6 m futures Bought at 3,500 sold at 3,634 Profit/loss + 434 Net profit on the calender spread Rs.59 Forward Rolling of the Hedge The non availability of the futures contract for the period of hedge give rise to Forward Rolling of hedge. Ex: When the hedge is required for 12 months and the hedge is available for a maximum of 6 months, the hedger faces the problem of remaining exposure for the period beyond which futures contract are not available If one is long in an asset for 12 months and futures are available for maximum of six months, the hedger can take the following steps 1) Initially short futures for six months 2) Six months later unwind the position of the original contract by going long and take a fresh short position in the new contract for next six months 3) After 12 months unwind the position in the second futures contract. Even if futures are available for the extended period, the rolling over of hedge is considered abetter option because near futures have greater liquidity and are more fairly priced than the distant futures as they suffer from liquidity Strategies in Futures • Long Position- holds asset-Short hedge in futures (farmer) • Short Position- requires underlying assetLong hedge in futures (computer Co.) Takes Opposite position in Futures Assignment Q.2 Q.3 (C) Q. Short notes on: i) Cross Hedge ii) Optimal Hedge ratio