Name_____________________________________ Date __________________ Candy Probability Introduction: This activity contains two parts. In part 1 you will make predictions, gather data, analyze the data and draw conclusions. In part 2 you will investigate basic principles of probability. To complete this activity you should be familiar with basic functions of a TI graphing calculator such as entering data, graphing data to produce a histogram. Part 1: 1. Determine how many of each color candy your group has total. Do you think there are the same number of each color candy? Do you think one color is produced more than other color candy? 2. In your notebook complete a tally table: Ex. : Color Red Amount of each color 12 3. Enter this data into your graphing calculator. Use the STAT key and enter your data in L1. 4. To help us analyze the data, graph a histogram with your graphing calculator. What does the shape of the histogram indicate? What conclusions can you draw? In your notes copy down the histogram. 5. Based on the data and the analysis done in step #4 you should be able to answer the questions posed in step #1. Where your predictions accurate? Part 2: 1. Choose a sample of candy where the probabilities of selecting each color is known. 2. Place these candies in a cup. Design an experiment where you select one color, then a second color. Determine the probability of these events. Perform the experiment and compare your experimental probability to the theoretical probability. Record this information in your notebook. 3. Repeat step 2, but this time replace the first candy before selecting the second one. Discuss with your group how this changes your probabilities. Part 3: 1. Obtain a new cup of candy for part 2. Estimate how many candy are in each cup. Count your candy. Use the formula below to see how close your estimate was: Percent Error = | Actual value – Estimated Value | x 100 = _____________ % error Actual Value 2. Working with a partner(s) choose three candy - two of one color and one of another color – out of your paper cup. What color candy are you most likely to pick out of this group? Why? What is the probability that you will choose each color candy? Design and conduct a simple experiment to support your answer to this question. In your notes record your experiment, data and findings. 3. Still working with the three candy from step #2 if you picked three candy out of the cup in a row what are the possible sequences? Ex.- red, red, orange. How many different combinations can you make? Design and conduct a simple experiment to support your answer to this question. In your notes record your experiment, data and findings. 4. Determine how many candy of each color is in your new cup of candy. What is the probability of choosing each color of candy from the group? For example what is the probability of choosing a green candy from the group? Represent the probability of choosing each color of candy from the group using a graph. You may use any type of graph; it may be done using the graphing calculator or drawn by hand. In your notes record your data, findings and graph.
