Innovation and Technology Case Study of Tesla Motors Unit: Managing Technology and Innovation Strategy (BUSM4528) Lecturer: Mark Boyes Program: MBA (Executive) Semester: 1 2017 Due Date: 4th June 2017 Student: Catherine Robertson Number: SN 9503312 Executive Summary This study examines the innovation of electronic vehicles (EV) with a particular focus on Tesla Motors. The motor vehicle sector contributes significantly to C02 emissions throughout the world, with companies relying heavily on fossil fuel. With the growing reduction in oil reserves and environmental sanctions enforced by governments across the globe, car manufacturers are challenged to develop new environmental friendly products. The current challenge for EV is battery charging, not only related to the limited number of charging stations, but also the time it takes to recharge the battery, which can be as much as 6 hours. Tesla is leading an innovation beyond the car market as it plans to configure cities energy systems to reduce the environmental impact. The challenge for Tesla to increase the scale of production and reduce costs in order to enter the market for the average consumer in order to become profitable. New plans for Tesla involve extending beyond simply EVs and merging the next step which is to ensure that the battery recharge is not from fossil fuels, but from clean energy by converting households to solar power. (Gans 2016) In the short term to remain a market leader in the pursuit of innovation sustainable operations, Tesla must address the following recommendations: 1. Streamline production to reduce costs in line with integrative Innovation or “High End” Technology Disruption 2. Global market expansion 3. Continued global infrastructure development of charging stations including adding battery swap stations 4. Bring together the two business offerings of electric vehicle and domestic solar power and energy storage 2 Contents Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Aim ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 Findings ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Battery Electric Vehicles ............................................................................................................. 5 Alternate propulsion cars ............................................................................................................ 6 US Automotive Industry .............................................................................................................. 6 Biofuels and Natural Gas ............................................................................................................ 6 Internal and External factors affecting Tesla ............................................................................... 7 PESTLE ......................................................................................................................................... 7 SWOT ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Five Forces applied to Tesla ...................................................................................................... 9 Innovation strategies used by Tesla ........................................................................................... 10 Design Thinking/Futures thinking ............................................................................................ 10 Innovation .................................................................................................................................... 11 Disruptive Market ....................................................................................................................... 11 Integrative Innovation or “High End” Technology Disruption .............................................. 13 The Double Diamond ................................................................................................................ 15 Corporate Strategy .................................................................................................................... 16 Short term objectives for Tesla- Sustaining Innovation ........................................................... 18 How will Tesla remain competitive? ............................................................................................ 18 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 21 References ...................................................................................................................................... 22 3 Introduction The American company, Tesla Motors was founded in 2003, as an automotive company dedicated to developing EVs. (Rothamerel & Zimmer 2015) As well as producing EVs, Tesla produces advanced electric powertrain components to other manufacturers such as Toyota and Daimier. Tesla’s mission is to “accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market EVs to market as soon as possible” Tesla’s CEO Elan Musk, states on his website that “we’re catalyzing change in the industry. Tesla’s vehicles are fun to drive and environmentally responsible” (Musk 2013). Tesla’s aim is to develop more changing stations across the world. In the United States (US) the number of changing stations has grown from 18 in 2013, to 236 in 2015. (Rothaermelt & Zimmer 2015) Aim The aim of this case review is to understand the forces which are affecting the alternate energy vehicles and identify the internal and external factors affecting Tesla. It will also determine if Tesla has a sustainable competitive advantage, how it should maintain this advantage and what should be their short-term objective to ensure survival. Findings The oil embargoes of the 1970’s first highlighted the need for more fuel-efficient cars, by 1990, the California Air Resource board passed a mandate that 2% of all car produced in California had to have zero emissions by 1998, then 5% in 2001 and 10% in 2003. The mandate was considered to being a catalyst for the increase research and production of EVs. (Rothaermelt and Zimmer 2015) The US government then in 2003 supported 1.3 billion in research into hydrogen-powered cars. Controversially this was also when congress passed a depreciation tax breaks of up to $100,000 for buyers of SUVs renown for being gas guzzlers as compared with $4,000 for EVs. (Rothaermelt & Zimmer 2015) 4 Tesla motors is a public company who trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the symbol, TSLA. In 2007 Tesla identified that it was losing $50,000 on each car sold. The CEO at the time had led the company to believe that it cost $65,000 per car to manufacture the Roadster, which seem to justify the sale price of $92,000, however in reality the car cost $140,000. In 2008 a completely redesigned roadster was launched for $109,000, by December 2009, 937 Roadster models in 18 countries had been sold, with an additional 1,200 putting down deposits giving the company 70 million in interest free loans. (Rothaermel, Zimmer 2015) Tesla completed its initial public offering in June 2010, in the first day of trading shares closed at $23.89, generating $226.1 million for Tesla. Despite this that year’s annual report showed an operating loss of $146.8 million and in 2013, this grew to $396 million. The turn around came in the first quarter of 2013, when Tesla turned a profit of $11 million, causing a run on investment that pushed up shares to over $150. (Rothaermel and Zimmer 2015) Battery Electric Vehicles The current options available to consumers is a pure EV or the hybrid propulsions vehicle. The pure electric vehicle uses batteries to supply the energy required for propulsion. The electric motors can also act as generators, using the energy created during breaking to then use for acceleration. The major disadvantage of the battery operated cars is that this is the most expensive part of the car which deteriorates over time. Newer lithium-iron batteries provide a larger range offering a driver 250-300 miles on one charge. Currently there a number of large companies heavily investing in research and development into reducing costs of making batteries and the time it takes to recharge them. (Rothaermel and Zimmer 2015) There is an increasing variety available to consumers in both options and price points for EVs. Vehicles range from being able to travel from 62-265 miles, with price ranges from $16,395 to $95,000. (Rothaermel and Zimmer 2015) 5 Alternate propulsion cars Another type of EV is the hybrid propulsion, which uses both an electric motor with internal combustion engine, thus not restricting the the travel range of these vehicles. These vehicles reduce air pollution, dependence on petrol and reduce green-house gas emissions. Elon Musk would argue that these cars have the disadvantage of both vehicles, as they have to carry the extra wait of another engine and have increased costs for ongoing repairs and maintenance. (Rothaermel and Zimmer 2015) Despite some of the challenges faced by hybrid cars their sales continue to rise, with Toyota likely to top 1 million cars in 2015. US Automotive Industry The US automotive industry has been dominated by GM, Ford and Chrysler for decades. In the 1990s they shifted production to SUV’s believing that gas prices would remain low. However, in 2004 sales started to decline, the 2008 global financial crisis saw car sales drop from 18 million in 2000 to 11 million in 2008. Biofuels and Natural Gas Researchers are also exploring the use of alternative fuel such as ethanol and natural gas for automobile propulsion. Produced from natural sugars Ethanol can be manufactured from sugar cane or corn. While not producing any carbon dioxide emissions, its production would require huge expanses of land, with a suggestion that this would push up the costs of food production. (Rothaermel and Zimmer 2015) Produced from oilseed, biodiesel is more expensive than fossil diesel, however is environmentally friendly as it does not omit carbon dioxide. While natural gas, which comes from methane produces a small amount of carbon dioxide. (Rothaermel and Zimmer 2015) 6 Internal and External factors affecting Tesla The internal and external factors affecting the success of Tesla are reflected in the pestle analysis below. PESTLE Figure 1: Pestle analysis of EV Market 7 SWOT Figure 2: Tesla Motors SWOT analysis and competitors The above SWOT analysis suggests that Tesla has a sustainable competitive advantage over both other electric vehicles and the combustion engine. 8 Five Forces applied to Tesla Tesla is one of the largest companies in the EV market, to ensure that they maintain this lead, it is essential it must understand the external factors which will affect their future success. Applying the five forces developed by Michael Porter to analyze the impacts of external environment will help identify opportunities. Figure 3: Five forces Tesla analysis (Kissinger 2017). 9 Innovation strategies used by Tesla Design Thinking/Futures thinking There are four stages in design thinking illustrated in figure 4. Figure 4: design thinking Design thinking has historically occurred much further down the development process, focusing more on making a product more aesthetic. Design thinking is a methodology that provides a solution based approach to problem solving. (Siang 2017). Design thinking is useful when dealing with complex problems. It focusses on understanding the human needs, by re-framing the problem in a human centric way and defining the problem, brainstorming the ideas and prototype and testing. Tesla are reimagining the car, they have embraced the principles of design thinking. In 2009, it participated at the Stanford Graduate School of Business’ Customer-Focused Innovation Program. Tesla understand that by designing products quickly, mistakes will occur, however you learn from these as you learn from and integrate your learnings into the next iteration of the product. (Digital Surgeons 2017) 10 Innovation Innovation can be described as new products or services that create value in the market which then drives economic growth. Innovators tend to be the leading companies in their market segment, such as Apple and Google. (Rothaermel 2010) Miller and Olleros (2007) suggest companies should have a clear vision of the innovation strategies they will follow. According to Francis and Bessant (2005) there are four “P’s” for innovation or change: Product Innovation Process Innovation Position Innovation Paradigm Innovation The initial strategy for Tesla was similar to many startup companies, building the Tesla roadster a minimally viable product to test the market. Its innovation strategy was to come from high end of the market and with each sequential iteration improving the product, reducing production costs and improving product design. According to Forbes magazine, Tesla is the leader in innovation premium. This is determined by identifying the difference between their market capitalization and a net present value of cash flow from existing business. (Dyer and Gregerson 2016) Disruptive Market Clayton Christensen, popularized the disruptive innovation theory. His suggestion was that for a new innovation to be disruptive, the focus would be on developing a good innovative product and starting at the bottom of the market and working your way up. For disruptive innovations to be successful it is also supported by new technologies or business models that enable their growth. See figure 5 below, which diagrammatically shows disruptive market theory. (Nielson 2016). In contrast, the innovation strategy for Tesla’s was to come from high end of the market and with each sequential iteration improving the product. 11 Figure 5: Disruptive Market (Nielson 2016) Although not completely disruptive in its approach, there are a number of areas where Tesla have disrupting the market: Tesla allows customers to buy the car off the web, reducing cost incurred at the sale yards It offers simple application updates as better algorithms are identified Personalised customer experience with driver settings, climate control and other features High standard of quality assurance and research and development. If an error is found, Tesla will pick the car up and return the next day fixed. Open Sourced technology in the hope of universally lifting the auto technology Price, although current initial costs are high the running costs are extremely low. (Katzar 2014) 12 Integrative Innovation or “High End” Technology Disruption Tesla’s plan was opposite to the traditional disruptive innovation theory. Rather than focusing on one job, it brings together multiple jobs to create a superior solution. (Neilson 2016). Because the integration is so important for success, the initial costs are often high. Over time the goal is to move down the market as quickly as possible. (Neilson 2016) High end technology disruption produces highly advanced technology that makes it difficult for competitors to copy, over time these companies use technology to lower costs. Tesla manufactures offer highly integrated plants with extensive use of robots, that can perform up to four tasks, as compared to most robots in the automotive industry that perform only one task. Tesla has also been successful in gaining a significant market share, which is important as it endeavors to move down market having the necessary volume to mitigate new competitors. (Furr and Dyer 2015) See figure 6 which represents a diagrammatic example of how Tesla has use integrative innovation. Figure 6: Integrative Innovation (Nielson 2016) Disruptive innovations create new systems or “value networks” which will displace the old ones. This will often ask for the innovators to think beyond the product itself. (Suskewicz 2015) Tesla has disrupted the status quo with its commitment to rapid iteration, and think 13 more like software developers than commodity manufactures. (Knight 2016) This is truly evident with the statement on Tesla’s website “Tesla is not just an automobile company it’s an energy innovation company” (Suskewics 2015) According to Musk, the traditional model of the car industry is doomed, with expectations of the car industry being autonomous, which will in future threatened the need for car ownership. (Knight 2016) Tesla will have a have a clear impact on gas stations, services and insurance as it creates its own ecosystem. If EVs were to hit tipping point then demand for traditional fuels reduces as does tax revenue excise which will have an effect on deceased government revenue, so a challenge for Tesla will be the government’s response to this. 14 The Double Diamond Divided into four phases, Discover, Define, Develop and Deliver, the double diamond is a visual mapping of the design process. (Design council 2015) At the commencement of a creative process there are often a number of creative ideas (divergent thinking) which are then narrowed down to the best idea (convergent thinking). This process demonstrates the double diamond as illustrated in figure 7. Figure 7: Double Diamond The double diamond shows that this process however occurs twice, once to confirm the problem and then to create a solution. The four phases of the double diamond are: Discover- this is the start of the project where users are reviewing the world through a fresh lens. Define- In this phase the users identify what should be acted on first ensuring that it is feasible. Develop- Solutions or concepts are created in this phase, then prototyped, tested and iterated. 15 Delivery- The final product is produced and launched. Futures thinking extends the double diamond beyond the product has been launched where in the future there is a divergent extension of design thinking. Tesla’s success is built on exploring new technology trends, leading the trail with computerization, connectivity, design and manufacturing together with automation. (Knight 2016) The next phase for Tesla is the integration of domestic solar power and energy storage to support the EV. Tesla will also create architectural disruption to the future of the transport market, in particular mass transport, with autonomous buses, and semi-trailers already being planned by Tesla. Corporate Strategy According to Musk “the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors is to help expedite the move from a mine and burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric company, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive sustainable solution”. The strategy for Tesla was to enter at the high end where customers will pay for this new technology and then to drive down the market as soon as possible. This is in opposition to normal disruptive markets. In the case of Tesla, Elon musk set a target of combining both high performance in a vehicle with environmental stewardship, and then over the consecutive years lowering production costs, by improving manufacturing capability and battery technology (Neilson 2016) 16 Innovation Strategy Tesla Electric Vehicles Description Energy Innovation Company Objective - To increase market share - Educate consumers about Tesla's goal to improve the future - Increase the waiting list Innovation Type Radical- new technology and new technical competencies Drivers Known Challenges Knowledge Sources - Sustainablity commitment - Declining supplies of gasoline -Emerging technology accessibility - Competitive market - Current cost of product is high - Battery life - Tesla employees - Panasonic - Toyota - Daimler Innovation Tools Prototyping Risk Profile High Key Success Factors Developing and EV affordable to the average consumer Corporate Strategy Alignment To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible. Figure 8: Tesla Innovation Strategy 17 Short term objectives for Tesla- Sustaining Innovation Streamline production to reduce costs- in line with Integrative Innovation or “High End” Technology Disruption Global market expansion Continued infrastructure development of charging stations including adding battery swap stations Bring together the two business offerings of electric vehicle and domestic solar power and energy storage Invest in flushable liquid electrolyte for electric batteries for cars, which would allow charging in the same time as filling a petrol tank How will Tesla remain competitive? To survive Tesla needs to become price competitive. As demonstrated in table 1, a scale curve analysis on costs from 2012 to 2014 shows Tesla’s cost for producing the Model S was $50,000 per vehicle. 18 Table 1: Scale curve for Tesla’s Model S 2012-2014 (Dyer and Gregson 2016) Scale curve slop = 80%. Costs drop 20% with each doubling of unit Tesla’s significant investment in research and development and building the battery Gigafactory for the model S, Xr3 and the factors have contributed to these losses. This curve however also identifies that the cost to build each unit has dropped by 20% with each doubling of the unit volume. If it was assumed that the model 3 was to follow the scale curve, then according to Dyer and Gregerson (2016) Tesla will break even at approximately 275,000 units By continuing to build Tesla battery supply chain this will also continue to provide a competitive edge. Scaling up production as identified in table 2 results in more efficient manufacturing, manufacturing improvements and cost reduction. (Zac 2015) 19 Table 2: Planned 2020 Gigiafactory production exceeds 2013 global production. (Zac 2015) To remain competitive Tesla, needs to extend its supercharger network. No other manufacturer has been able to replicate this to date, which gives Tesla is discrete advantage. (Trefis 2016) Tesla continues to disrupt the entire model of the automotive and fuel industry. The second stage of Tesla’s master plan moves beyond the car market, to configure cities energy systems so that they reduce their impact on the environment. For every 100,000 Tesla cars on the road this would equate to a reduction in the use of 40 million gallons of petroleum or about 100 million not spent annually at the gas station. (Cross 2016) 20 Conclusion With motor vehicles contributing significantly to CO2 emissions and a growing reduction in oil reserves, Tesla is leading the innovation of EV and battery storage. Throughout this innovation, Tesla has used design thinking methodology to achieve its goal and disrupted the entire model of the automotive and fuel industry. To maintain this advantage Tesla must move toward the reducing production cost, expanding to a wider global market and continue to expand it charging stations. It also has the opportunity to incorporate its other business offering of domestic solar panels and battery storage to further reduce the environmental impact 21 References Cross, 2016. Tesla’s real invention isn’t the electric car. Slate. Available at: http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2016/04/tesla_s_real_innovation_is_its_b usiness_practices_not_its_electric_cars.html [Accessed 26 April 2017] Design Council, 2015. The design process: What is double diamond? Design Council. Available at: http://www.designcouncil.org.uk/news-opinion/design-process-what-doublediamond [Accessed 25 April 2017] Digital Surgeons, 2017. How Design Thinking Helped Create the Light Bulb and Tesla. Digital Surgeons. Available at:https://www.digitalsurgeons.com/thoughts/designthinking/how-design-thinking-helped-create-the-light-bulb-and-tesla/ [Accessed 3 June 2017] Dyer and Bryce, 2015 Tesla’s High-End Disruption Gamble, Forbes. Available at:https://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2015/08/20/teslas-high-end-disruptiongamble/#6894296f77ed [Accessed 29 April 2017] Dyer and Hal, 2016. Tesla’s innovations are transforming the auto industry. Forbes. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2016/08/24/teslas-innovationsare-transforming-the-auto-industry/#1e07bfff19f7 [Accessed May 28, 2017] Dyer and Hal, 2016. How we ranked the world’s most innovative companies. Forbes. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2015/08/19/how-we-rank-theworlds-most-innovative-companies-2015/#62e01db5f8c5 [Accessed June 2, 2017] Furr and Dyer, 2015. Tesla’s high-end disruption gamble. Forbes. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2015/08/20/teslas-high-end-disruptiongamble/ - 26751cde77ed [Accessed 29 April 2017] Francis and Bessant, 2005. Targeting innovation and implications for capability development. Technovation, 25 (3), 171-183. Gans, 2016. Why Elon Mucks new strategy makes sense. Harvard Business review. Available at: https://hbr.org/2016/07/why-elon-musks-new-strategy-makes-sense [Accessed 26 April 2017] Katzor, 2014. What is Tesla’s competitive advantage. Quora. Available at: https://www.quora.com/What-is-Teslas-competitive-advantage [Accessed 3 June 2017] Kissinger, 2017. Tesla Motors, Inc’s five forces analysis and recommendations. Panmore Institute. Available at: http://panmore.com/tesla-motors-inc-five-forces-analysisrecommendations-porters-model [Accessed 26 April 2017] 22 Knight, 2016. Tesla’s strategy is risky and aggressive but it has worked. MIT technology review. Available at: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601876/teslas-strategy-is-riskyand-aggressive-but-it-has-worked/ [Accessed 28 May 2017] Miller and Olleros, 2007. The dynamics of games of innovation. International Journal of Innovation Management, 11 (1), 37–64. Neilson, 2016. Tesla model 3: An integrative innovation case study. The innovative manager. Available at: http://www.theinnovativemanager.com/tesla-model-3-integrativeinnovation-case-study/ [Accessed 28 April 2017] Rothaermel and Hess 2010. Innovation Strategies Combined. MIT Sloan Management Review, 51 (13). Rothaermel and Zinner 2015. Tesla Motors: Will sparks fly in the automotive industry. Available at: https://lms.rmit.edu.au/bbcswebdav/pid-8008738-dt-content-rid19404170_1/courses/BUSM4528_1710/Tesla%20Motors%20%28In%202013%29%20Will%20Sparks%20Fly%20in%20the%20Automobile%20Industry%20.pdf [Accessed 29 April 2017] Siang, 2017. Design thinking: A five stage process. Interaction Design Foundation. Available at: https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/5-stages-in-the-designthinking-process [Accessed 23 May 2017] Suskewics, 2015. Tesla’s new strategy is over 100 year’s old Harvard Business review. Available at: https://hbr.org/2015/05/teslas-new-strategy-is-over-100-years-old [Accessed 26 April 2017] Siang, 2017. Design thinking: A five stage process. Interaction Design Foundation. Available at: https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/5-stages-in-the-designthinking-process [Accessed 23 May 2017] Trefis, 2016. Should Tesla be worries about competition? Forbes. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/01/04/should-tesla-be-worried-ofcompetition/#617405b64ebe [Accessed 3 June 2017] Zac, 2015. Tesla’s competitive advantage- 5 big ones. EVObession. Available at: https://evobsession.com/tesla-competitive-advantage-5-big-ones/ [Accessed 3 June 2017] 23