OS BLOG OFFICIAL WEBSITE OF OPTION_SNIPER Menu ! Jun 25 Tuesday night blog Posted on June 25, 2019 by optionsniperos Market dropped heavily today. If you jumped in early in tech puts, it would be a very profitable day. As many are expecting market to move stronger after SPX reaching ATH, technical patterns in the past few days actually have given clear warnings – starting from the obvious deviation of 5ma and 10ma on daily chart. I have alerted about this technical pattern, and it’s probably a perfect lesson for all of us to remember the importance of respecting technical setups, not just expecting news. Semi names were all relatively strong then faded after leading name MU started to pull back. MU’s earning # is great – would not be surprised to see some upgrades out over night. Not sure if this would trigger a semi run tomorrow as technical setups in most semis today are not looking good. As I said in last night blog, “technically it looks like a lower low is needed before another run.” SPX dropped heavy back to 10ma on daily chart AND it’s also around the upper red tilted neckline. Unless we see some very positive news out (actually news just came out moments ago that US is considering delaying tariffs on China), technically the market is not bottomed here. As I tweeted, 2936 2918 were both key levels – ES reached 2918 after market today. If breaking down through 2918, very likely we see 2900 or even 2886-2894 range. Technically, ES needs to hold above 4H chart cloud top overnight – if dropping INTO the cloud, it could be bad setup into Wednesday. Only positive signal is daily 5ma looks flat, not sharply downwards. So it’s not impossible to see a bounce back to 5ma if bottom is confirmed around 2918. Nasdaq daily chart is even worse than SPX as it fell and closed below daily 10ma. Very likely we see another lower low following this giant red candle – could be Wednesday or Thursday. So if we see a small or even big bounce on Wednesday, it could be just a retest of 5/10ma and the market will likely drop again following this bounce all the way to touch mid BB on daily chart. Again, remember the KEY levels above and below for ES: 2886 (previous repeatedly tested key level) 2894 (previous repeatedly tested key level) 2900 (psychological level) 2918 (open of May 6 weekly candle) 2926 (open of Oct4, 2018 red candle which marked the start of a 600 pt downward move) 2936 (supported level tested on Jun 20 during big fade) 2950 (high of May3 candle) 2959 (strong resistance level) 2964 (new ATH level) 2986 (measured move) 3000 (psychological level) FOCUS LIST for Wednesday: 1. AMZN AMZN dropped big today with a giant red candle touch back upper black tilted line 1874 level. Technically, we might see 5ma moving down to dead cross 10ma with MACD also dead cross either Wednesday or Thursday. So if we see any bounce on Wednesday back to 10ma 1892 level, it could be good opportunity to consider put plays – Jun28 1870p can be good candidate if that happens. KEY threshold levels are 1902 1871 – breaking either way will trigger another bigger move. 2. GOOGL Similar to AMZN, GOOGL also had a very ugly candle today as it dropped back to this key lower neckline level. Again if we see a bounce back to 10ma on Wednesday, Jun28 1090p could be good candidate. KEY threshold levels 1106 1086 – breaking either way will trigger another bigger move. 3. NVDA NVDA dropped from a strong move early in the morning. We switched from calls to jun28 150p – which almost doubled. Locked 40% profits and holding rest into Wednesday. Although MU postearning move could significantly affect semi names, technically NVDA is on the edge of a rising wedge break out. So watch how it reacts to this rising wedge bottom on Wednesday – if confirms a break down, may see way lower to 147-148 range. If b/o 155 again, it’s gonna change the momentum back to bullish. 4. CMG CMG was one of very few names that remained green when mkt dipped. Hourly chart now gives a much better picture about its technical trend – this is a classic inverted ascending triangle formation. The neckline 742.6 level is VITAL. If it runs above this 742.6 neckline level, it may trigger an explosive run to 746 752 756 or even weekly upper boll around 768 level. We have Jun28 750c ready for a move. Can use 728 as STOP. Like this: Loading... Leave a Reply Enter your comment here... 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