UNCLASSIFIED Introduction to Analysis Analytical Thinking – Lesson 1 Instructor: XXX Overall Classification: UNCLASSIFIED B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Intro • • The applied logical process of reaching conclusions about presented information (U) (U) • Reasoning is either: (U) Inductive – Developing theories based on presented observations OR • (U) Deductive – Proving or disproving a theory or hypothesis by identifying supporting/disproving facts through observation or experimentation All men are mortal. Harold is a man. Therefore, Harold is mortal. - Deduction Deduction moves from idea to observation, while Induction moves from observation to idea. - Induction B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED How to Think - Types of arguments and their structure - Deductive Arguments - Affirming the antecedent - If p (antecedent), then q (consequent); p, therefore q - A. If one human is made of tin, then all humans are made of tin. - B. One human is made of tin, - C. Therefore all humans are made of tin. - Regardless of the content, the argument is valid because it assumes the premises are true - One can have false premises and a false conclusion, true premises and a true conclusion, false premises and a true conclusion - One CANNOT have true premises and a false conclusion - Denying the consequent - If p, then q; not p, therefore not q - A. If the soul is immortal, then thinking does not depend on brain activity. - B. Thinking does depend on brain activity, - C. Therefore, the soul is not immortal B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 3 UNCLASSIFIED How to Think - Types of arguments and their structure - Deductive Arguments - Hypothetical Syllogism (deductive argument consisting of two premises and a single conclusion - If q, then p - If p, then r - Therefore, if q then r - A. If the floor creaks, someone is standing in the hallway. - B. If someone is standing in the hallway, there’s a burglar in the house. - C. Therefore, if the floor creaks, there’s a burglar in the house. - Denying the antecedent (invalid argument form) - If q, then p - Not p - Therefore, not q - Affirming the consequent (invalid argument form) - If q then p - P - Therefore, Q B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 4 UNCLASSIFIED How to Think - Types of arguments and their structure - Deductive Arguments - Affirming the consequent (invalid argument form) – cannot have false conclusion from true premises - If q then p - P - Therefore, Q - A. If Falmouth is the Capital of Massachusetts, then Falmouth is in Massachusetts - B. Falmouth is in Massachusetts - C. Therefore, Falmouth is the capital - Disjunction/disjunctive syllogism - Either q or p - Not p - Therefore, q - A. Either Captain Shepherd or Major Moulis is the Flight/CC - B. It’s not Captain Shepherd - C. Therefore it is Major Moulis B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 5 UNCLASSIFIED How to Think - Types of arguments and their structure - Testing Deductive Arguments - The test argument seeks to emulate the form of the argument being tested by substituting the premises in an argument with unquestionably true premises and a false conclusion. - A. If Shepherd could bend spoons with his mind, then he would be a special person - B. Shepherd cannot bend spoons with his mind (WHAT TYPE of argument is this?) - C. Therefore, Shepherd is not a special person - SUBSTITUTE - A. If dogs could lay eggs, then they would be useful to humans - B. Dogs cannot lay eggs - C. Therefore, dogs are not useful to humans. B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 6 UNCLASSIFIED How to Think - Types of arguments and their structure - Inductive Arguments - Enumerative induction (invalid argument) - A. X percent of the observed members of group A have property P - B. Therefore, X perfect of all members of group A have property P - This method usually finds one using too small a sample size of a target group and making a hasty generalization (one of many different kinds of fallacies). Because one cannot observe 100% of the target population, one can only estimate at the representative % for the quality being measured. - Analogical induction (can only establish conclusions with a certain degree of probability) - A. Object 1 has properties B, C, D, and Z. - B. Object 2 has properties B, C, and D. - C. Therefore, Object 2 probably has property Z - Hypothetical induction (Abduction, or inference to the best explanation) - A. Phenomena P. - B. Hypothesis 1 explains P - C. No other hypothesis explains phenomena P as well as hypo. 1 does - D. Therefore, it is probably that hypo 1. is true “I knew you came from Afghanistan. From long habit the train of thoughts ran so swiftly through my mind that I arrived at the conclusion without being conscious of intermediate steps. There were such steps, however. The train of reasoning ran, `Here is a gentleman of a medical type, but with the air of a military man. Clearly an army doctor, then. He has just come from the tropics, for his face is dark, and that is not the natural tint of his skin, for his wrists are fair. He has undergone hardship and sickness, as his haggard face says clearly. His left arm has been injured. He holds it in a stiff and unnatural manner. Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? Clearly in Afghanistan.' The whole train of thought did not occupy a second. I then remarked that you came from Afghanistan, and you were astonished.“ – Sherlock Holms, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle: A Study in Scarlet B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 7 UNCLASSIFIED Informal Fallacies - Types of informal fallacies - Unacceptable premises - Begging the Question: A circular argument where the conclusion is included in the premise - Ex: Susan has ESP. I know this because she can read my mind. - False Dilemma: An argument that presumes only two alternatives exist, when in reality there are many more than two. - Ex: Either have your astrological sign read, or continue on your wayward path of misdirection - Irrelevant Premises - Equivocation: An argument that uses a word in two different senses in an argument - Ex: Only Airmen are rational; no NCO is an airman; therefore, no NCO is rational - Composition: An argument which assumes that assumes what is true about a part of something must also apply to the whole - Ex: Subatomic particle are lifeless, therefore anything made out of them is lifeless B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 8 UNCLASSIFIED Informal Fallacies - Types of informal fallacies - Irrelevant Premises - Division: The opposite of composition. This is an argument that assumes what is true of a whole is also true of its parts - Ex: We are alive and made of subatomic particles; therefore, subatomic particles must be alive, too. - Appeal to the Person (Ad hominem): An argument that attempts to denigrate or criticize the presenter of the argument, rather than attacking the argument itself. - Ex: This theory has been proposed by a believer in the occult, why should we take it seriously? - Note: It is not the attack of simply calling someone else names. That is called being rude. There needs to be an obvious implication that the character reference is intended to undermine the presenter’s argument. Thinking someone is stupid BECAUSE of an argument is not the same as thinking an argument is unsound BECAUSE you think the person is stupid. - Genetic Fallacy: An argument that something is true or false based on its origin. - Ex: Jane got that idea from her horoscope, so it must be false B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 9 UNCLASSIFIED Informal Fallacies - Types of informal fallacies - Irrelevant Premises - Appeal to Authority: An argument that assumes because an authority figure thinks something, it must be true. Appeals to authority can be legitimate, if the authority being cited is an expert in the field. - Ex: Jennie McCarthy - Appeal to the Masses (Bandwagon): An argument that is based on the popularity of the premise and conclusion. - Ex: The Earth being flat - Appeal to Tradition: An argument that something must be true because it is a part of established tradition - Ex: Astrology has been around for ages, so there must be something to it. B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 10 UNCLASSIFIED Informal Fallacies - Types of informal fallacies - Irrelevant Premises - Appeal to Fear: An argument that using the threat of harm to advance one’s own position - Ex: You should believe in Thor otherwise you’ll be struck by lightning - Straw man: An argument that misrepresents someone’s own argument in order to make it easier to dismiss or reject - Ex: Captain Shepherd says he wants to amend the process by which EPRs are routed for review. We should oppose any effort to gut the chain of command’s influence. - Insufficient Premises - Hasty Generalization: An argument that draws a general conclusion about all things of a certain type on the basis of evidence concerning only a few things of that type - Ex: I know a car salesman, none of them can be trusted - Faulty Analogy - False Cause - Slippery Slope B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 11 UNCLASSIFIED Informal Fallacies - Types of informal fallacies - Insufficient Premises - Faulty Analogy: An argument that assumes because things may resemble one another in certain aspects, then they must resemble one another in further aspects - Ex: Earth has air, water, and living organisms. Mars has air, and water. Therefore, Mars must have living organisms. - False Cause (Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc): An argument that posits two events are causally connected, when they are not - Ex: The more firemen that are fighting a fire, the bigger the fire is. Therefore, firemen cause massive fires. - Slippery Slope: An argument that posits one event will lead directly to another, often times with worsening results. - Ex: The development of artificial intelligence will ultimately lead to the downfall and destruction of man B FLIGHT - DGS MASS - THE ORIGINAL MISSION UNCLASSIFIED 12
