Assignment 1 Assignment 1 Darina Merkulova 8207380 ECO4170 Game Theory with Applications in Corporate Finance Professor N. V. Quyen February 12th, 2019 Assignment 1 1 Textbook Problems 3U2. a. Albus has three pure strategies: SA = {S, E, N} Minerva has eight pure strategies: SM = {(a, a, a), (a, a, b), (a, b, b), (b, b, b), (b, b, a), (b, a, a), (a, b, a), (b, a, b)} b. Albus has four pure strategies: SA = {(S, S), (S, N), (N, S), (N, N)} Minerva has five pure strategies: SM = {(a, a), (a, b), (b, b), (c, a), (c, b)} c. Albus has four pure strategies: SA = {(S, S), (S, N), (N, S), (N, N)} Minerva has four pure strategies: SM = {(a, a), (a, b), (b, a), (b, b)} Severus has two pure strategies: SS = {X, Y} 3U4 a. Please refer to Annex for tree A. The President prefers a payoff of 4 over any other payoff, so he chooses B becomes law. When the President chooses B, Congress receives the highest payoff for A becomes law, so it chooses A. Thus, the rollback equilibrium is Congress choosing A and President choosing B, and the President’s choice does not affect the rollback equilibrium, because Congress anticipates the President to choose B, so it chooses its best response by choosing A. b. Please refer to Annex for tree B. The President still chooses B becomes law, but when the President chooses B, Congress chooses A or B becomes law. Thus, the rollback equilibrium is Congress chooses A or B and President chooses B. 4U1 a. There are no dominated strategies for Rowena. But for Colin, playing Right strictly dominates playing Left, so he will play the former. If he plays Right, Rowena plays Up. As a result, the game ends in the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium (Up, Right) with payoff (4, 2). b. There are no dominated strategies for either player. For Colin, Left dominates Right, so Right can be eliminated. Consequently, for Rowena, Straight strictly dominates both Up and Down. When Rowena plays straight, Colin will then play Middle. As a result, through iterative elimination, the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is (Straight, Middle) with payoff (9, 2). c. There are no dominated strategies for either player. For Colin, Right dominates Middle, so Middle can be eliminated. Consequently, for Rowena, Straight strictly dominates both Up and Down. When Rowena plays straight, Colin will then play Middle. As a result, through iterative elimination, the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is (Straight, Middle) with payoff (4, 4). d. There are no dominated strategies for either player. For Rowena, Up dominates Down, so Down can be eliminated. Consequently, for Colin, East dominates North, so North can be eliminated. In turn, Up strictly dominates both High and Low for Rowena. When she plays Up, Colin then plays East. As a result, through iterative elimination, the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is (Up, East) with payoff (5, 5). Assignment 1 2 4U2 a. This is a non-zero-sum game, as the gain or loss of utility by Rowena is not matched with a corresponding or loss of utility by Colin (payoffs in all cells are not equal). b. This is a non-zero-sum game, as the gain or loss of utility by Rowena is not matched with a corresponding or loss of utility by Colin (payoffs in all cells are not equal). c. This is a zero-sum game, as the payoffs in all cells sum to 8. d. This is a zero-sum game, as the payoffs in all cells sum to 10. 4U5 For Colin, Middle dominates Right, so Right can be eliminated. Elimination of dominated strategies reduces the strategic-form game to the following: Colin Rowena Up Down Left 4, 3 5, 0 Middle 2, 7 5, -1 Consequently, for Rowena, Down strictly dominates Up. When Rowena plays Down, Colin plays Left. As a result, through iterative elimination, the solution to this game is (Down, Left) with payoff (5, 0). This solution is a Nash equilibrium because when Rowena plays Down, Colin prefers Left, and when he plays Left, Rowena also prefers Down. 4U8 a. Game table: (assuming the Japanese have -1 when it they are found, and 1 when not) Japan United States Northern route Southern route North 2, -1 1, 1 South 2, 1 3, -1 b. Neither player has a dominant strategy. The Nash equilibrium is (Northern Route, South) with payoff (2, 1) because it yields the highest expected payoff out of all cells (3). 7U1 a. If Offense Runs, then the Defense Anticipates a Run. If Offense Passes, then the Defense Anticipates a Pass. In turn, if the Defense Anticipates a Run, the Offense Passes. If the Defense Anticipates a Pass, the Offense Runs. Therefore, there is no pure strategy that is a best response to a best response. The game has no pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. b. Suppose Offense plays Run with probability p and Pass with probability (1-p). Similarly, let Defense Anticipate a Run with probability q, and Anticipate a Pass with probability (1-q). Then, (−1)๐ − 9(1 − ๐) = (−5)๐ + 3(1 − ๐) ๐ ๐ ๐กโ๐๐ก 16๐ = 12 ๐๐๐ ๐ = ๐/๐. And (1)๐ + 5(1 − ๐) = 9๐ − 3(1 − ๐) ๐ ๐ ๐กโ๐๐ก 10๐ = 2 ๐๐๐ ๐ = ๐/๐. Assignment 1 3 The mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium is: - Offense plays (3/4)*(Run) + (1/4)*(Pass) - Defense plays (1/5)*(Anticipate Run) + (4/5)*(Anticipate Pass) c. In this game, each player wants to be unpredictable and thus uses a mixed strategy that specifies a probability distribution over her set of pure strategies, which is why the mixture is different between the Offense and the Defense. d. The expected payoff of the Offense is: (1)*(1/5) + (1-1/5)*(5) = 5.25 yards. 7U6 a. Suppose James swerves with probability p and goes straight with probability (1-p). Similarly, let Dean swerve with probability q, and go straight with probability (1-q). Then, 0๐ − 1(1 − ๐) = (1)๐ − 2(1 − ๐) ๐ ๐ ๐กโ๐๐ก 2๐ = 1 ๐๐๐ ๐ = ๐/๐. And (0)๐ − 1(1 − ๐) = 2๐ − 2(1 − ๐) ๐ ๐ ๐กโ๐๐ก 3๐ = 1 ๐๐๐ ๐ = ๐/๐. The mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium is: - James plays (1/2)*(Swerve) + (1/2)*(Straight) - Dean plays (1/3)*(Swerve) + (2/3)*(Straight) The expected payoffs for the players are: - James’s expected payoff = (0)*(1/3) + (-1)*(1-1/3) = -0.667 - Dean’s expected payoff = (0)*(1/2) + (-1)*(1-1/2) = -0.5 b. James’s probability of playing Straight is the same as before, but Dean’s probability of playing Straight is slightly lower (1/3 < 1/2). c. The expected payoffs in 4.B are -0.5, so the expected payoffs for the players are now the same for Dean and worse for James. These are not paradoxical given that Dean changed his strategy whereas James did not, so James should have a lower payoff given that he is still indifferent between choosing Swerve and Straight. 7U11 a. Yes, (Sea, Air) and (Land, Sea) are pure-strategy Nash equilibria with payoffs (2, 4). b. Suppose Patton chooses Air with probability p1, Sea with probability p2, and Land with probability (1-p1-p2). Similarly, let Dean play Air with probability q1, Sea with probability q2, and Land with probability (1-q1-q2). Macarthur’s payoff from Air is 3๐1 + 4๐2 + 3(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) His payoff from Sea is 6๐2 + 4(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) His payoff from Land is 7๐1 + 3(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) From the 2nd payoff, we have that ๐1 = ๐2 , and substituting into the 2nd and 3rd payoffs: 7๐1 + 3(1 − 2๐1 ) = 6๐1 + 4(1 − 2๐1 ) Assignment 1 4 ๐1 + 3 = 4 − 2๐1 3๐1 = 1 → ๐๐ = ๐/๐ Substituting into (1-p1-p2), we obtain that ๐๐ = ๐/๐. Patton’s payoff from Air is 2๐2 + 1(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) His payoff from Sea is 2๐1 + 2(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) His payoff from Land is ๐1 + 2๐2 Therefore, we can set: 2๐2 + 1(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) = 2๐1 + 2(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) 2๐2 + 1(1 − ๐1 − ๐2 ) = ๐1 + 2๐2 From the first payoff, we obtain ๐1 = 3๐2 − 1, and substituting into the 2nd condition yields: 2๐2 + (1 − (3๐2 − 1) − ๐2 ) = (3๐2 − 1) + 2๐2 −2๐2 = 5๐2 − 1 7๐2 = 1 → ๐๐ = ๐/๐ Substituting into (1-q1-q2), we obtain that ๐ = ๐/๐. Non-Textbook Problems 2.a Each firm seeks to maximize its expected profit in a Cournot duopoly. Since only Firm 1 knows whether demand is high or low, Firm 1 has two types (H, L) and Firm 2 only has one type. The unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium in this case is the equilibrium set (q*1H, q*1L, q*2). ๏ท If demand Firm 1 knows the demand is high (a = aH), it will then choose q*1H such that: ∗ max(๐๐ป − ๐พ − ๐1๐ป − ๐2∗ )๐1๐ป The FOC gives that: ∗ ๐1๐ป ๏ท ๐๐ป − ๐พ − ๐2∗ = 2 If demand Firm 1 knows the demand is low (a = aL), it will then choose q*1L such that: ∗ ∗ max ๐1๐ฟ (๐๐ฟ − ๐พ − ๐1๐ฟ − ๐2∗ )๐1๐ฟ The FOC gives that: ∗ ๐1๐ฟ ๏ท ๐๐ฟ − ๐พ − ๐2∗ = 2 Firm 2 has incomplete information regarding the demand. All it knows is that it is high with probability θ and low with probability (1-θ). It will therefore choose q*2 such that: ∗ ∗ max ๐๐2 (๐๐ป − ๐พ − ๐1๐ป − ๐2 ) + (1 − ๐)๐2 (๐๐ฟ − ๐พ − ๐1๐ฟ − ๐2 ) Assignment 1 5 The FOC gives that: ๐2∗ = ๏ท ∗ ) ∗ ) ๐(๐๐ป − ๐พ − ๐1๐ป + (1 − ๐)(๐๐ฟ − ๐พ − ๐1๐ฟ −๐พ 2 Plugging q*1H and q*1L into q*2, we obtain: ๐2∗ = 2๐2∗ = ๐ (๐๐ป − ๐๐ป − ๐พ − ๐2∗ ๐ − ๐พ − ๐2∗ (1 − ๐) (๐๐ฟ − ๐ฟ ) + )−๐พ 2 2 2 2๐๐๐ป − ๐๐๐ป + ๐๐พ + ๐๐2∗ (1 − ๐)(2๐๐ฟ − ๐๐ฟ + ๐พ + ๐2∗ ) + −๐พ 2 2 2๐2∗ = ๐๐๐ป + ๐๐ฟ − ๐พ + ๐2∗ − ๐๐๐ฟ 2 3๐2∗ = ๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐ฟ − ๐พ ๐∗๐ = ๏ท ๏ท ๐ฝ๐๐ฏ + (๐ − ๐ฝ)๐๐ณ − ๐ธ ๐ Then, replacing q*2 in q*1H and q*1L, we obtain: ๐∗๐๐ฏ = ๐๐ฏ − ๐ธ ๐ฝ๐๐ฏ + (๐ − ๐ฝ)๐๐ณ − ๐ธ − ๐ ๐ ๐∗๐๐ณ = ๐๐ณ − ๐ธ ๐ฝ๐๐ฏ + (๐ − ๐ฝ)๐๐ณ − ๐ธ − ๐ ๐ Therefore, the unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium triplet (q*1H, q*1L, q*2) is: ๐๐ป − ๐พ ๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐ฟ − ๐พ − 2 6 ๐๐ฟ − ๐พ ๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐ฟ − ๐พ = − 2 6 (1 ๐๐ + − ๐)๐ ๐ป ๐ฟ−๐พ ๐2∗ = 3 ∗ ๐1๐ป = ∗ ๐1๐ฟ { 2.b In a symmetric pure-strategy Bayesian Nash equilibrium of this game, the sensitivity of firm i’s demand to firm j’s price, and the sensitivity of firm j’s demand to firm i’s price, are equal, so bi = bH = bL. Firm i has two types (H, L) while firm j only has one type. ๏ท For its two types, Firm i sets its price so as to maximize the following profit functions: max(๐ − ๐๐๐ป + ๐๐ป (๐๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ฟ )๐๐๐ป max(๐ − ๐๐๐ฟ + ๐๐ฟ (๐๐๐๐ฟ + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ป )๐๐๐ฟ Assignment 1 6 The FOCs give that: ๐ − 2๐๐๐ป + ๐๐ป (๐๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ฟ ) = 0 ๐ − 2๐๐๐ฟ + ๐๐ฟ (๐๐๐๐ฟ + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ป ) = 0 ๏ท ๏ท ๏ท Solving for p*iH and p*iL, we obtain: ∗ ๐๐๐ป = ๐ + ๐๐ป (๐๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ฟ ) 2 ∗ ๐๐๐ฟ = ๐ + ๐๐ฟ (๐๐๐๐ฟ + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ป ) 2 Then, letting ๐ = ๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐ฟ , we obtain: ∗ ๐๐๐ป = ๐ ๐๐๐ป + ๐๐๐ป (๐๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ป ) + 2 4 ∗ ๐๐๐ฟ = ๐ ๐๐๐ฟ + ๐๐๐ฟ (๐๐๐๐ป + (1 − ๐)๐๐๐ป ) + 2 4 Replacing, we obtain the following Bayesian Nash equilibrium solution values of p*iH and p*iL: (1 − ๐) 1 ๐ ๐๐ป [ (1 + ) + ๐๐(๐๐ป − ๐๐ฟ )] 2 1 − 0.25๐ 2 2 8 1 ๐ ๐๐ฟ ๐ ∗ ๐๐๐ฟ = [ (1 + ) + ๐๐(๐๐ป − ๐๐ฟ )] 2 1 − 0.25๐ 2 2 8 ∗ ๐๐๐ป = { Assignment 1 7 Annex Tree A Tree B