Scientific and Organizing Committee
Dr. Tsehaye Gebrelibanos
Dr. Solomon Hishe:
Dr. Biadgilign Demissie
Dr. Tesfaalem Ghebreyohannes
Dr. Tesfayohannes Hailu
Dr. Misgina Gebrehiwot
GIS And RS Based Analysis of Soil Moisture Condition in A Semi-Arid Environment of The Middle
Keynote Speaker Short Profile
Suluh Valley, Northern Ethiopia
The keynote speaker for the 3 rd National Conference on “Integrated Geographic and
Environmental Research for Sustainable Development” to be held on 14 March 2019 at Mekelle
University is Professor Woldeamlak Bewket.
Solomon Hishe
1*, 2
2
, James Lyimo , Woldeamlak Bewket
3
1
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
2
Institute of Resource Assessments, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
3
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia
*
Corresponding author’s email: solomonhw@yahoo.com
Abstract
Soil moisture is among the most important element of the water and energy cycle in the Earth
system. It is a complex phenomenon which involved in the exchange of water and heat energy
between the atmosphere and land surface in the process of evapotranspiration. In many studies,
soil moisture analysis was used for agricultural productivity as well as prediction of drought in a
given area. This study, we evaluate soil moisture dynamics in the Middle Suluh Valley using five
indices: shortwave infrared soil moisture index (SIMI); normalized difference moisture index
(NDMI), normalized difference water index (NDWI); modified normalized difference water index
(MNDWI); and moisture stress index (MSI) developed by different researchers. We then
investigate its relationship with long-term average annual precipitation (AAP). The coefficient of
correlation for all indices varied between –0.01 and 0.24, which is very weak. This suggests the
absence of a simple linear relationship between AAP and soil moisture. However, in all the models
carried out, there was statistically significant (P < 0.001) at 0.05 significance level. Therefore, in
areas where extensive soil and water conservation (SWC) intervention was applied for decades,
its contribution for soil moisture improvement could be evaluated through these moisture indices.
Keywords: Soil moisture; Precipitation; Indices; soil and water conservation; Landsat; Inverse
Distance weight
The title of his speech is “Sustainable Environmental Management for Sustainable
Development: Some Topics for Integrated Geographical Research”
Woldeamlak Bewket is a professor of environmental studies at the
Department of Geography & Environmental Studies of Addis Ababa
University, Ethiopia. He holds a PhD in Production Ecology &
Resource Conservation, earned from Wageningen University, The
Netherlands. His research interest and experience is in the
interdisciplinary areas of environmental change, natural resource
management and rural livelihoods. He has published extensively in
refereed periodicals, and most of his works are widely cited in other
research as well as development-oriented works. He has also produced
and published monographs, guidance manuals, policy briefs and other important materials
targeting at different stakeholders and beneficiaries. He was recognized by Addis Ababa
University in 2014 as a Distinguished Researcher. He is a fellow of the Ethiopian Academy of
Sciences.
Affordability of Condominium Housing Challenges and Prospects in The Case of Adigrat Town
Tsega Araya
1
1
Raya University,
Corresponding author’s email: tsega21ar@gmail.com
COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND CARBON STOCKS AS INFLUENCED BY LAND USE TYPES AND SOIL AND
WATER CONSERVATION STRUCTURES IN SEMI-ARID HIGHLANDS OF ETHIOPIA ....... 16
Henok Shiferaw 1, Amdom Gebremedhin 1, Negasi Solomon2, Gebeyehu Tayea1,2, Amanuel Zenebe 1,2 ................................. 16
COMPARING DIFFERENT LAND USE TYPES IN RELATION TO THEIR EFFECT ON SOIL
ACIDITY AND FERTILITY IN NORTHERN ETHIOPIA ................................................................ 17
Okubay Giday 1 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 17
Abstract
This study conducted in Adigrat town of Tigray National Regional State, Northern Ethiopia, with
the aim of assessing major challenges and prospects of condominium housing affordability. In
order to carry out the stated objectives of the research, both primary and secondary data were
collected from 284 sample house-hold heads in six condominium sites and analyzed through
descriptive statistics such as percentage, tabulation, frequency and bar graphs. The result of the
current study showed that condominium houses were more affordable for the better income earner
than the lower income earners. Majority of respondents in the study area were adult, government
employee, female headed and educated. The main challenges of condominium housing were level
of income, employment level, housing cost, and its interest rate. On the other hand, the
opportunities of condominium housing for the residents were to create job opportunity, to improve
socio-cultural network, to improve living standard and decrease slum area. It is recommended to
give special attention to facilitate the low-income housing provision and provide affordable houses
to the lower income residents of Adigrat Town, with improved housing policies and
implementation strategies. Maximize the capacity of micro and small enterprises with creating a
massive job opportunity, to make the urban poor people be an income generator. In addition to
this, continuous capacity building programs should encourage the saving culture of the society
mainly the low-income group.
Keywords: Adigrat, Affordability, Challenge, Condominium, Prospect
EFFECT OF URBAN WASTES AND INDUSTRIAL EFFLUENTS ON HEAVY METAL
CONCENTRATIONS OF SURFACE WATER AND IRRIGATED SOILS: THE CASE OF
MEKELLE CITY, NORTH ETHIOPIA ................................................................................................ 18
Shimbahri Mesfin 1*Abdilah Berihu2, Solomon Habtu 1, Fassil Kebede 3, Tesfamichael Gebreyohannes 1 and Mohammed
Mohammedbrhan1 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 18
TRADITIONAL AGROFORESTRY SYSTEMS FOR DRY LAND CLIMATE CHANGE
RESILIENCE OF TIGRAY REGION, NORTHERN ETHIOPIA ..................................................... 19
Ashenafi Manaye 1*, Berihu Tesfamariam1, Haftu Abriha 1 ....................................................................................................... 19
SATELLITE IMAGERY COUPLED WITH GROUND SURVEY TO ESTIMATE IRRIGATION
ATTRIBUTES FROM A HIGHLY FRAGMENTED AND HETEROGENEOUS FARMLANDS IN
NORTHERN ETHIOPIA: ARE THE TRADITIONAL ESTIMATES GENUINE? ......................... 20
Filmon Tquabo Gebremariam1*, Solomon Habtu 1, Yemane Adane 1, Tesfa-alem Gebreegziabher 2, and Eyasu Yazew
1,2 . 20
MODELLING IMPACT OF URBAN EXPANSION ON FRINGE FARMLANDS BY USING GIS
AND REMOTE SENSING TECHNIQUES: THE CASE OF WUKRO TOWN, TIGRAY REGION,
NORTHERN ETHIOPIA ........................................................................................................................ 21
Fikre Hagos 1*, Daniel Teka1 and Mewcha Amha 1...................................................................................................................... 21
RAINFALL INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY DEVELOPMENT FOR SOIL AND
WATER CONSERVATION INTERVENTIONS UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE IN
SOUTHERN TIGRAY, ETHIOPIA ....................................................................................................... 22
Abeba Tesfay 1 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 22
AFFORDABILITY OF CONDOMINIUM HOUSING CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS IN
THE CASE OF ADIGRAT TOWN ........................................................................................................ 23
Tsega Araya1 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 23
IMPACT OF CHARCOAL PRODUCTION ON INDIGENOUS TREE SPECIES: THE CASE OF
LAILAY MAYCHEW WOREDA .......................................................................................................... 24
Rishan Haile 1*, Amleset Gebreegzabher 1 and Tesfaalem Ghebreyohannes 1 ........................................................................... 24
GIS AND RS BASED ANALYSIS OF SOIL MOISTURE CONDITION IN A SEMI-ARID
ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE SULUH VALLEY, NORTHERN ETHIOPIA ...................... 25
Solomon Hishe 1*, 2, James Lyimo2, Woldeamlak Bewket 3 ......................................................................................................... 25
Modelling Impact of Urban Expansion on Fringe Farmlands by Using GIS and Remote Sensing
Integrating Linear Spectral Unmixing Analysis and Hydrologic Model for enhancing sediment yield
Techniques: The Case of Wukro Town, Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia
prediction, the case of data scarce upper Tekeze basin, Ethiopia
Fikre Hagos 1* , Daniel Teka 1 and Mewcha Amha 1
Hagos Gebreslassie. 1, 4 * , Assefa M. Melesse 2 , and Azage Gebreyohanse 1 ; Kevin Bishop 3
1
Institute of Geo-information and Earth Observation Sciences (I-GEOS) Department of GeoInformatics
*
Corresponding author’s email: fikrehagos@gmail.com / fikre.hagose@mu.edu.et
Abstract
Urban expansion is considered as one of the most important problems in several developing
countries. Wukro town is rapidly expanding on to surrounding the cultivated areas and this study
aims to Modelling impact of urban expansion on feign farmlands quantifying the land use land
cover changes using remotely sensed data, GIS and MOLUSCE QGIS plug in urban simulation
urban expansion model in Wukro town. Considering the urban land use and land cover changes
driving factors, it is important to put forward the right policies and monitoring mechanisms on
urban growth for decision making. Four Landsat images (i.e. 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015) from
the TM, ETM+, and OLI sensors are used to determine urban expansion land use change. The
images were classified using ERDAS IMAGIN 2014 Maximum Likelihood Supervised
classification technique. The Land Use Land Cover is classified into Built-up area, cultivated
lands, Plantation, Rivers and Shrub land. Accordingly, the overall classification accuracy was
86.0% for 1985, 86.4% for 1995, 87.32% for 2005 and 89.32% for 2015. The urban population
was 13,045 in 1985 similarly the built-up was 143.01hectare. In 1995 the population was 16,421
and the built-up was expanded to 169.2hectare. In 2005, the urban population rose to 30,210 and
the built-up was expanded to 229.23hectars. In 2015, the populations grow to 45,214 and the builtup also to 470.70hectares. From 1985 to 1995, 1995 to 2005, 2005 to 2015, the population growth
was 25.88%, 83.97% and 49.37% respectively and built-up area expansion rate was 18.144%,
35.48%, and 104.35% respectively. The spatial trend of built-up areas also showed that, there was
an elevated growing trend to the southern and south west part of Wukro town than other directions.
Due to the urban expansion process 301.21hectares of farmlands has been converted to urban
expansion from the 1995 to 2015.Hence, a sample of 78 household’s farmers who has previously
displaced from their land due to the town expansion was taken. Primarily data collected from
sampled households were processed and analyzed by using the Statistical Package for Social
Scientists (SPSS). To demonstrate the reliability of the MOLUSEC QGIS urban simulation model,
the urban expansion is simulated for 2015 and the model showed an accuracy of 78.95%. Finally,
using the same model the urban expansion is simulated for 2025. Accordingly, the built-up area
of wukro town is predicted to be 585 hectares for 2025. Therefore, the findings of this study could
provide as decision making for urban planning.
Keywords: Cellular Automata, Simulation, Logistic Regression Model, MOLUSCE, Urban
expansion model
1
Ethiopian institute of water resources, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia
Department of earth and environment, Florida international Universities, USA
Swedish Universities of Agriculture, University of Uppsala, Sweden
4
Adigrat University, Ethiopia
* Corresponding author’s email: hagmeb@gmail.com
2
3
Abstract
The interests to use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for identifying soil erosion risk area,
estimating sediment yield, and designing and evaluating different management scenarios in data
scarce river systems have been growing. Despite these interests, lack of adequate data for most
required parameters is challenging. The potential of vegetation to control soil erosion and
sediment load (C-factor) is the required parameter in most sediment modeling software which has
been inadequately parametrized. This research proposed to use linear spectral un-mixing analysis
(LSUA) for determining spatial C-factor values for using it in SWAT to enhance sediment yield
prediction performance. The spatial minimum C-factor of upper Tekeze basin was first mapped
using LSUA technique from remote sensing images and tested its accuracy with field
measurements. Then, the performance of SWAT in predicting daily sediment yield of upper Tekeze
basin was evaluated by incorporating average C-factor values into land use type units
(conventional) and to hydrological response units (HRUs). The finding implied the LSUA
approach was capable to determine the spatially detailed C-factor within land use types and
geographic units. The demonstration in the upper Tekeze basin showed that the use of the minimum
C-factor data produced using LSUA and integrating it into HRUs of SWAT improved the fit
between the predicted and the measured sediment yield. The coefficients indicating model
performance including NSE, PBIAS, RSR and R 2 for sediment yield were computed to be 0.72,
0.39, 34.2 & 0.68 when C-factor was at land use type unit of SWAT and 0.84, 0.23, 10, & 0.89
while C-factor was considered at HRUs of SWAT, respectively. Therefore, LSUA was found
effective in mapping the spatial C-factor values and enhancing the performance of SWAT in
predicting sediment yield that can be applied in data scarce river basins.
Keywords: C-factor, linear spectral un-mixing, sediment yield, SWAT, Tekeze basin
Traditional Agroforestry Systems for Dry Land Climate Change Resilience of Tigray Region,
Flood Based Farming As Affected By Climate And Land-Cover Induced Hydrological Stress In
Northern Ethiopia
Guguf Spate Systems, Northern Ethiopia
Emnet Negash 1* , Girmay Gebresamuel 2 , Tesfa-alem G. Embaye 3 , and Amanuel Zenebe 1, 2
Ashenafi Manaye 1* , Berihu Tesfamariam 1 , Haftu Abriha 1
1
Mekele Environment and Forest Research Center, Ethiopia, mekele-center@eefri.gov.et
*
Corresponding author’s email: ashenafim@eefri.gov.et
Abstract
Agroforestry systems are a solution to address the food security of small-scale farmers and
synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigations. Despite the importance of this type
of knowledge, there are still limitations on which traditional agroforestry system (TAF) is resilient
enough to adapt to the changing climate. Thus, the present study was aimed at evaluating the TAF
practices of climate change resilience in the different agroecological region of Tigray, Ethiopia.
Three districts from each agroecology were purposively selected. Then, systematic random
sampling was employed to collect social and biophysical data from a total of 197 households
(HHs). Socioeconomic data was collected using semi-structured questionnaires and woody species
inventory was done on each HH. Agrosilvopastoral systems were the dominant TAF systems of all
agroecologies. However, parkland agroforestry (AF) practices were dominant in the midland and
lowland areas, whereas rotational woodlot practices were dominant in the highlands. Overall the
study shows that agroforestry contributes 39.5% of the livelihood products to the community. A
total of 59 species, belonging to 48 genera and 32 families were recorded. Shannon diversity index
(H’) of highland agroecology was higher in home-garden AF while in the midland and lowland
the higher H’ was recorded in parkland agroforestry. The mean total biomass carbon stock of the
TAF system was 21.4 t C ha-1. In the highland and midland, the variation in biomass carbon stock
was significant (p< 0.05) between each TAF system. Thus, our study reveals that the TAF practices
have benefits for providing food security to small-scale farmers and improving climate change
adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Keywords: Adaptation, Agroforestry practice, food security, livelihood, climate change mitigation,
1
Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Ethiopia.
Department of Land Resource Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University,
Ethiopia
3
Institute of Water and Environment, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
*
Corresponding author’s email: emnet.gis@gmail.com
2
Abstract
Flood based farms in the rainfall-deficit semi-arid lowlands of the Raya valley rely on spate
systems to produce food crops. Climate and land-cover dynamics upstream are, however,
threatening spate volume and subsequently areal coverage of spate-based agriculture. Thus, this
study aims to investigate the subsequent effects of climate and land-cover induced hydrological
stress on spate irrigated agriculture. Runoff response to changes in climate and land-cover for the
study period was formulated using Soil Conservation Systems Curve Number method. On the other
hand, spate cannel and areal coverage of spate systems to the right and left of the main river were
surveyed using Global Positioning System. Results showed that climate, mainly temperature and
evapotranspiration increased, and rainfall diminished at the rate of 0.11oC year-1, 16.4 mm year1, and -7.4 mm year-1 respectively. Land-cover enhanced at the rate of 23.1 ha year-1. These
changes in climate and land-cover, in turn, steered runoff response to decline by 7.36x106 m3 in
32 years since 1984. As a result, spate-based agriculture retreated by 57.5% only in three decades
time, an average of -43.96 ha year-1. In other words, a 1x106 m3 decline in flood triggered spatebased farms to retreat by 268.7 ha. If the current trend continues there is high risk that the
remaining farmland which are currently receiving flood may run out of spate systems.
Strengthening upstream-downstream hydrological linkage is therefore needed to address the
challenge on sustainable manner.
Keywords: agriculture; climate; hydrological stress; land-cover; runoff response; flood farming
Comparing Different Land Use Types in Relation to Their Effect on Soil Acidity and Fertility in
Evaluation Of Climate Change Impact On The Magnitude Of Rainfall and Flood Frequency: The
Northern Ethiopia
Case Of Hare Watershed, Ethiopia
Okubay Giday 1
Biniyam Yisehak 1* , Abdella Kemal 2
1
Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University,
Corresponding author’s email: okubaygiday12@gmail.com
1
2
*
Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, Ethiopia,
Institute of Water Technology, Arba Minch University, Ethiopia
Corresponding author’s email: b1n1y21@gmail.com
Abstract
Abstract
Land use changes have remarkable effects on the dynamics of soil properties. However,
information on the effect of land use type on soil acidity and fertility parameters is very limited.
The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of different land uses on soil acidity and fertility
status in Northern Ethiopia. Soil samples were collected from cultivated fields, home garden,
Eucalyptus plantation and grazing lands. Composite soil samples were taken from a depth of 0-20
cm representing these land uses and analyzed for selected soil physiochemical properties such as
Texture, Exchangeable Acidity, Acid Saturations, pH, Exchangeable Bases, CEC, Available P,
Available K, Total N and Organic Carbon. The results showed that the soils in all land uses are
slight to moderately acidic (pH=5.9 - 6.3) except the home garden soils. Home garden soils had
significantly (p<0.01) higher soil pH than the other three land uses. Furthermore, significantly
higher (p<0.01) Exchangeable Bases, Effective CEC and Available P was obtained from home
garden fields than soils of other land uses. The low soil pH in cultivated fields was probably due
to continuous removal of basic cations by crops and intensive cultivation that enhanced leaching
of basic cations; while relatively higher soil pH in home garden fields attributed to application of
manure, wood ashes and other easily decomposable garbage around the homestead gardens. In
general, special attention should be given to cultivated land to improve the acidity and fertility
status of soils to sustain its productivity.
Developing country like Ethiopia more vulnerable to climate change, because of the less flexibility
to adjust the economic structure and being largely dependent on agriculture, the impact of climate
change has far reaching implication in Ethiopia. Hare River watershed is in the Abaya-Chamo
sub-basin of the southern Ethiopian Rift Valley and drains to Lake Abaya. The study aims to
evaluate climate change impact on the magnitude of rainfall and flood frequency of Hare
watershed. In the study the daily data values of rainfall and discharge from 1980-2006 was used
based on stream flow measurements carried out by MWIE. The downscaled climate data such as,
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 was used for the future period assessment. Both rainfall and flood frequency
analysis were performed using Log-Pearson type III distributed methods for return periods (T) of
T = 2 yrs, 5 yrs, 10 yrs, 25 yrs, 50 yrs and 100 yrs. The annual peak flow frequency analysis has
been carried out for the future (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) periods using the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers Statistical Software Package (HEC-SSP). RCP8.5 scenario for all return period by
2050s and 2080s predicted an increasing the change in rainfall magnitude. RCP4.5 scenario for
all return period by 2020s and 2050s predicted decreasing rainfall magnitude. RCPs scenario
predicted the 100-years flood of the current climate seems to increase to a flood return period of
(2 yrs, 5 yrs, 10 yrs, 25 yrs and 50 yrs). The rainfall frequency analysis shows climate change will
have impact on the frequency and magnitude of rainfall intensity. The future change in rainfall
magnitude clearly governs in peak flow magnitude and frequency.
Keywords: Physiochemical properties, Land uses types, Acidity, Soil Fertility
Keywords: Climate Change; RCPs; Flood frequency; Rainfall frequency; HEC-SSP
Current and Future Climate Change Impacts on Sesame Production in Western Tigray, Ethiopia
G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia
Temesgen Bezabh 1* , Girmay Tesfay 2 , Girmay G/Samuel 3 , Amanuel Zenebe 1
M. A. Zewdie 1 * , G.G. Wubit 1 , A.W. Ayele 2
1
1
2
2
Mekelle University, Institute of climate and society
Mekelle University, Department of Natural resource economics and management
3
Mekelle University, Department of Land resource management and environmental protection
*
Corresponding Author’s email: amanhosaena@gmail.com
*
Department of Statistics, Mekelle University, Ethiopia
Department of Statistics, Debre Markos University, Ethiopia
corresponding author’s email: muliestat2004@gmail.com
Abstract
Abstract
Sesame is one of the most important export crops grown in Ethiopian and locally grown in western
and north western zone of Tigray region. Despite its economic importance, limited studies have
been carried out about the current and future climate change impacts on sesame producers.
Hence, the present study was carried out in Kafta Humera district and has characterized climate
of the study area and assessed the yield response of sesame to climate change. The study used
Markov chain modeling to characterize climate of the study area using above 30 years (19802017) temperature and rainfall data. Ensemble of all GCMs in combination with the AquaCrop
yield simulation model was also used to assess the impact of climate change on sesame yield.
Based on this, the analysis of historical climate showed that, maximum temperature of the study
area increased in the past decades with regression coefficient of 0.0369, while mean difference in
rainfall has decreased at a coefficient of -1.1078. Similarly, the onset and cessation of rainfall
have shown greater variability with standard deviation of +11.308 and +16 respectively. The
projected climate under RCP 4.5 showed as there will be an increase in minimum and maximum
temperature with above 1.2OC by 2040. Moreover, it is predicted that rainfall will decrease by
5.2% under RCP 4.5. Similarly, yield was simulated to reduce from -5.88% to -23.31% in the near
future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Generally, the study should that climate change is inevitable
and will significantly depress sesame production. Therefore, it is recommended that prior attention
should be given to policy interventions that focused on improving farmers technical capacity and
access to short growing sesame varieties to enhance resilience of sesame farming to climate
change impacts.
Keywords: Sesame, Characterization, GCM, RCP, Climate change
Among many indicators of climate change, Temperature is a key indicator to take remedial action
for world global warming. This finding provides application of space-time models for temperature
data, which is selected in three meteorology stations (Mekelle, Adigrat and Adwa) of Northern
Ethiopia. The objectives of this research are to see the space-time variations of temperature and
to find better forecasting model. The steps for building this model starting from order selection of
space and autoregressive order, parameters estimation, diagnostic check of errors and finally
forecasting for the long term. The preliminary model is identified by VAR (vector autoregressive)
model and tentatively selects the order by using MIC (minimum information criteria) and uses the
autoregressive order for the model and fixes the spatial effect, model parameters are estimated
using the least square method. Weighted matrix computed by using queen contiguity criteria. It is
found that the model STAR (1:1) and GSTAR (1:1) are two options, finally the best-fitted model is
GSTAR (1;1) which has high forecasting performance and smallest RMSEF. The outcome of the
forecast indicated that in northern Ethiopia, the weather conditions specially temperature of future
is increasing trend in dry seasons in all 3 stations in similar fashion but more consistent and has
less variation across the region, and less consistent and high variation within the region and the
researcher found that spatial effect have high impact on prediction of models.
Keywords: Temperature, STAR/GSTAR, Forecasting