Chapter 4 Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus The modeling of random assets in finance is based on stochastic processes, which are families (Xt )t∈I of random variables indexed by a time interval I. In this chapter we present a description of Brownian motion and a construction of the associated Itô stochastic integral. 4.1 Brownian Motion We start by recalling the definition of Brownian motion, which is a fundamental example of a stochastic process. The underlying probability space (Ω, F, P) of Brownian motion can be constructed on the space Ω = C0 (R+ ) of continuous real-valued functions on R+ started at 0. Definition 4.1. The standard Brownian motion is a stochastic process (Bt )t∈R+ such that 1. B0 = 0 almost surely, 2. The sample trajectories t 7−→ Bt are continuous, with probability 1. 3. For any finite sequence of times t0 < t1 < · · · < tn , the increments Bt1 − Bt0 , Bt2 − Bt1 , . . . , Btn − Btn−1 are independent. 4. For any given times 0 ≤ s < t, Bt − Bs has the Gaussian distribution N (0, t − s) with mean zero and variance t − s. We refer to Theorem 10.28 of [36] and to Chapter 1 of [95] for the proof of the existence of Brownian motion as a stochastic process (Bt )t∈R+ satisfying " N. Privault the above Conditions 1-4. See also Problem 4.15 for a construction based on linear interpolation. In particular, Condition 4 above implies IE[Bt − Bs ] = 0 and Var[Bt − Bs ] = t − s, 0 ≤ s ≤ t, and we have Cov(Bs , Bt ) = IE[Bs Bt ] = IE[Bs (Bt − Bs )] + IE[(Bs )2 ] = IE[Bs ] IE[Bt − Bs ] + IE[(Bs )2 ] = s, hence 0 ≤ s ≤ t, Cov(Bs , Bt ) = IE[Bs Bt ] = min(s, t), s, t ∈ R+ , cf. also Exercise 4.1-(d). In the sequel, the filtration (Ft )t∈R+ will be generated by the Brownian paths up to time t, in other words we write Ft = σ(Bs : 0 ≤ s ≤ t), t ≥ 0. (4.1) A random variable F is said to be Ft -measurable if the knowledge of F depends only on the information known up to time t. As an example, if t =today, • the date of the past course exam is Ft -measurable, because it belongs to the past. • the date of the next Chinese new year, although it refers to a future event, is also Ft -measurable because it is known at time t. • the date of the next typhoon is not Ft -measurable since it is not known at time t. • the maturity date T of a European option is Ft -measurable for all t ∈ R+ , because it has been determined at time 0. • the exercise date τ of an American option after time t (see Section 11.4) is not Ft -measurable because it refers to a future random event. Property (iii) above shows that Bt − Bs is independent of all Brownian increments taken before time s, i.e. 78 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus (Bt − Bs ) ⊥ ⊥ (Bt1 − Bt0 , Bt2 − Bt1 , . . . , Btn − Btn−1 ), 0 ≤ t0 ≤ t1 ≤ · · · ≤ tn ≤ s ≤ t, hence Bt − Bs is also independent of the whole Brownian history up to time s, hence Bt − Bs is in fact independent of Fs , s ≥ 0. As a consequence, Brownian motion is a continuous-time martingale, cf. also Example 2 page 2, as we have IE[Bt | Fs ] = IE[Bt − Bs | Fs ] + IE[Bs | Fs ] = IE[Bt − Bs ] + Bs = Bs , 0 ≤ s ≤ t, because it has centered and independent increments, cf. Section 6.1. For convenience we will informally regard Brownian motion as a random walk over infinitesimal time intervals of length ∆t, whose increments ∆Bt := Bt+∆t − Bt ' N (0, ∆t) over the time interval [t, t+∆t] will be approximated by the Bernoulli random variable √ (4.2) ∆Bt = ± ∆t with equal probabilities (1/2, 1/2). The choice of the square root in (4.2) is in fact not fortuitous. Indeed, any choice of ±(∆t)α with a power α > 1/2 would lead to explosion of the process as dt tends to zero, whereas a power α ∈ (0, 1/2) would lead to a vanishing process. Note that we have IE[∆Bt ] = 1√ 1√ ∆t − ∆t = 0, 2 2 and 1 1 ∆t + ∆t = ∆t. 2 2 According to this representation, the paths of Brownian motion are not differentiable, although they are continuous by Property 2, as we have √ dBt ± dt 1 ' = ± √ ' ±∞. (4.3) dt dt dt Var[∆Bt ] = IE[(∆Bt )2 ] = After splitting the interval [0, T ] into N intervals " 79 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault k−1 k T, T , N N k = 1, . . . , N, of length ∆t = T /N with N “large”, and letting √ √ √ Xk = ± T = ± N ∆t = N ∆Bt with probabilities (1/2, 1/2) we have Var(Xk ) = T and √ Xk ∆Bt = √ = ± ∆t N is the increment of Bt over ((k − 1)∆t, k∆t], and we get BT ' X ∆Bt ' 0<t<T X1 + · · · + XN √ . N Hence by the central limit theorem we recover the fact that BT has a centered Gaussian distribution with variance T , cf. point 4 of the above definition of Brownian motion. Indeed, the central limit theorem states that given any sequence (Xk )k≥1 of independent identically distributed centered random variables with variance σ 2 = Var[Xk ] = T , the normalized sum X1 + · · · + Xn √ n converges (in distribution) to a centered Gaussian random variable N (0, σ 2 ) with variance σ 2 as n goes to infinity. As a consequence, ∆Bt could in fact be replaced by any centered random variable with variance ∆t in the above description. 2 1.5 1 Bt 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Fig. 4.1: Sample paths of a one-dimensional Brownian motion. 80 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus In Figure 4.1 we draw three sample paths of a standard Brownian motion obtained by computer simulation using (4.2). Note that there is no point in “computing” the value of Bt as it is a random variable for all t > 0, however we can generate samples of Bt , which are distributed according to the centered Gaussian distribution with variance t. 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Fig. 4.2: Two sample paths of a two-dimensional Brownian motion. The n-dimensional Brownian motion can be constructed as (Bt1 , . . . , Btn )t∈R+ where (Bt1 )t∈R+ , . . .,(Btn )t∈R+ are independent copies of (Bt )t∈R+ . Next, we turn to simulations of 2 dimensional and 3 dimensional Brownian motions in Figures 4.2 and 4.3. Recall that the movement of pollen particles originally observed by R. Brown in 1827 was indeed 2-dimensional. 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -1 -0.5 -1.5 -2 -2 -1.5 -1 0 0.5 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 1 1.5 2 2 Fig. 4.3: Sample paths of a three-dimensional Brownian motion. Figure 4.4 presents a construction of Brownian motion by successive linear interpolations, cf. Problem 4.15. " 81 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 n= 12 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 t Fig. 4.4: Construction of Brownian motion by linear interpolation.∗ The following R code is used to generate Figure 4.4. alpha=1/2;t <- 0:1;dt <- 1;z=rnorm(n=1, sd = dt^alpha) plot(t*dt, c(0, z), xlab = "t", ylab = "", main = "", type = "l", xaxs="i") k=0;while (k<10) {readline("Press <return> to continue") m <- (z+c(0,head(z,-1)))/2 y <- rnorm(n = length(t) - 1, sd = (dt/4)^alpha) x <- m+y x <- c(matrix(c(x,z), 2, byrow = T)) n=2*length(t)-2 t <- 0:n plot(t*dt/2, c(0, x), xlab = "t", ylab = "", main = "", type = "l", xaxs="i") z=x;dt=dt/2} The next Figure 4.5 presents an illustration of the scaling property of Brownian motion. Fig. 4.5: Scaling property of Brownian motion.† 82 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus 4.2 Wiener Stochastic Integral In this section we construct the Itô stochastic integral of square-integrable deterministic function with respect to Brownian motion. Recall that Bachelier originally modeled the price St of a risky asset by St = σBt where σ is a volatility parameter. The stochastic integral wT 0 f (t)dSt = σ wT 0 f (t)dBt can be used to represent the value of a portfolio as a sum of profits and losses f (t)dSt where dSt represents the stock price variation and f (t) is the quantity invested in the asset St over the short time interval [t, t + dt]. A naive definition of the stochastic integral with respect to Brownian motion would consist in writing w∞ 0 f (t)dBt = w∞ 0 f (t) dBt dt, dt and evaluating the above integral with respect to dt. However this definition fails because the paths of Brownian motion are not differentiable, cf. (4.3). Next we present Itô’s construction of the stochastic integral with respect to Brownian motion. Stochastic integrals will be first constructed as integrals of simple step functions of the form f (t) = n X ai 1(ti−1 ,ti ] (t), (4.4) t ∈ R+ , i=1 i.e. the function f takes the value ai on the interval (ti−1 , ti ], i = 1, . . . , n, with 0 ≤ t0 < · · · < tn , as illustrated in Figure 4.6. f 6 a2 a1 a4 t0 t1 t2 t3 t4 t Fig. 4.6: Step function. Recall that the classical integral of f given in (4.4) is interpreted as the area under the curve f and computed as † The animation works in Acrobat reader on the entire pdf file. " 83 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault w∞ f (t)dt = 0 n X ai (ti − ti−1 ). i=1 In the next definition we adapt this construction to the setting of stochastic integration with respect to Brownian motion. The stochastic integral (4.5) will be interpreted as the sum of profits and losses ai (Bti − Bti−1 ), i = 1, 2, . . . , n, in a portfolio holding a quantity ai of a risky asset whose price variation is Bti − Bti−1 at time i = 1, 2, . . . , n. Definition 4.2. The stochastic integral with respect to Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ of the simple step function f of the form (4.4) is defined by w∞ 0 f (t)dBt := n X ai (Bti − Bti−1 ). (4.5) i=1 w∞ In the next Lemma 4.3 we determine the probability distribution of f (t)dBt 0 and we show that it is independent of the particular representation (4.4) chosen for f (t). Lemma 4.3. w ∞Let f be a simple step function f of the form (4.4). The stochastic integral f (t)dBt defined in (4.5) has a centered Gaussian distribution 0 w∞ 0 with mean IE Var hw ∞ 0 hw ∞ 0 w∞ f (t)dBt ' N 0, |f (t)|2 dt 0 i f (t)dBt = 0 and variance given by the Itô isometry w i 2 w ∞ ∞ f (t)dBt = IE f (t)dBt = |f (t)|2 dt. 0 0 (4.6) Proof. Recall that if X1 , . . . , Xn are independent Gaussian random variables with probability laws N (m1 , σ12 ), . . . , N (mn , σn2 ) then then sum X1 +· · ·+Xn is a Gaussian random variable with distribution N (m1 + · · · + mn , σ12 + · · · + σn2 ). As a consequence, when f is the simple function f (t) = n X ai 1(ti−1 ,ti ] (t), t ∈ R+ , i=1 the sum w∞ 0 f (t)dBt = n X ak (Btk − Btk−1 ) k=1 has a centered Gaussian distribution with variance 84 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus n X |ak |2 (tk − tk−1 ), k=1 since Var [ak (Btk − Btk−1 )] = a2k Var [Btk − Btk−1 ] = a2k (tk − tk−1 ), hence the stochastic integral w∞ 0 f (t)dBt = n X ak (Btk − Btk−1 ) k=1 of the step function f (t) = n X ak 1(tk−1 ,tk ] (t) k=1 has a centered Gaussian distribution with variance Var hw ∞ 0 n i X f (t)dBt = |ak |2 (tk − tk−1 ) = k=1 n X |ak |2 k=1 = = n w∞X 0 w∞ 0 w tk tk−1 dt |ak |2 1(tk−1 ,tk ] (t)dt k=1 |f (t)|2 dt. Finally we note that Var hw ∞ 0 w i 2 hw ∞ i2 ∞ f (t)dBt = IE f (t)dBt − IE f (t)dBt 0 0 w 2 ∞ f (t)dBt . = IE 0 In the sequel we will make a repeated use of the space L2 (R+ ) of measurable functions f : R+ −→ R, called square-integrable functions, endowed with the norm rw ∞ kf kL2 (R+ ) := |f (t)|2 dt < ∞, f ∈ L2 (R+ ), (4.7) 0 which induces the distance kf − gkL2 (R+ ) := " rw ∞ 0 |f (t) − g(t)|2 dt < ∞, 85 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault between two functions f and g in L2 (R+ ), cf. e.g. Chapter 3 of [98] for details. Note that the set of simple step functions f of the form (4.4) is a linear space which is dense in L2 (R+ ) for the norm (4.7), cf. e.g. Theorem 3.13 in [98], namely, given f a function satisfying (4.7) and (fn )n∈N a sequence of simple functions converging to f for the norm rw ∞ kf − fn kL2 (R+ ) := 0 |f (t) − fn (t)|2 dt In order to extend the definition (4.5) of the stochastic integral w∞ 0 f (t)dBt to any function f ∈ L2 (R+ ), i.e. to f : R −→ R measurable such that w∞ |f (t)|2 dt < ∞, (4.8) 0 we will make use of the space L2 (Ω) of random variables F : Ω −→ R called square-integrable random variables, endowed with the norm p kF kL2 (Ω×R+ ) := IE[F 2 ] < ∞, which induces the distance kF − GkL2 (Ω) := p IE[(F − G)2 ] < ∞, between the square-integrable random variables F and g in L2 (Ω). w∞ Proposition 4.4. The definition (4.5) of the stochastic integral f (t)dBt 0 w∞ can be extended to any function f ∈ L2 (R+ ). In this case, f (t)dBt has a 0 centered Gaussian distribution w∞ w∞ f (t)dBt ' N 0, |f (t)|2 dt 0 with mean IE Var hw ∞ 0 hw ∞ 0 0 i f (t)dBt = 0 and variance given by the Itô isometry w i 2 w ∞ ∞ f (t)dBt = |f (t)|2 dt. f (t)dBt = IE 0 0 (4.9) Proof. The extension of the stochastic integral to all functions satisfying (4.8) is obtained by density and a Cauchy∗ sequence argument, based on the isometry relation (4.9). Given f a function satisfying (4.8), consider a sequence (fn )n∈N of simple functions converging to f in L2 (R+ ), i.e. rw lim kf − fn kL2 (R+ ) = lim n→∞ ∗ n→∞ ∞ 0 |f (t) − fn (t)|2 dt = 0, See MH3100 Real Analysis I. 86 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus r∞ cf. e.g. Theorem 3.13 in [98]. The isometry (4.9) shows that 0 fn (t)dBt n∈N is a Cauchy sequence in L2 (Ω) by the triangle inequality∗ for the L2 (Ω)-norm, as we have w ∞ w∞ fk (t)dBt − fn (t)dBt 2 0 0 L (Ω) s w ∞ 2 w∞ = IE fk (t)dBt − fn (t)dBt 0 s = IE 0 w ∞ 0 (fk (t) − fn (t))dBt 2 = kfk − fn kL2 (R+ ) ≤ kfk − f kL2 (R+ ) + kf − fn kL2 (R+ ) , r∞ which tends to 0 as k and n tend to infinity. Since the sequence 0 fn (t)dBt n∈N is Cauchy and the space L2 (Ω) is complete, cf. e.g. Theorem 3.11 in [98] or w Chapter 4 of [30], we conclude that ∞ 0 fn (t)dBt n∈N converges for the L2 -norm to a limit in L2 (Ω). In this case we let w∞ w∞ f (t)dBt := lim fn (t)dBt , n→∞ 0 0 which also satisfies (4.9) from (4.6) The uniqueness of this limit can then be shown from (4.9). w∞ −t For example, e dBt has a centered Gaussian distribution with variance 0 w∞ ∞ 1 1 = . e−2t dt = − e−2t 0 2 2 0 w∞ Again, the Wiener stochastic integral f (s)dBs is nothing but a Gaussian 0 random variable and it cannot be “computed” in the way standard integral are computed via the use of primitives. However, when f ∈ L2 (R+ ) is in C 1 (R+ ), i.e. when f is continuously differentiable on R+ , we have the following formula w∞ w∞ f (t)dBt = − f 0 (t)Bt dt, (4.10) 0 0 provided that limt→∞ t|f (t)|2 = 0 and f ∈ L2 (R+ ), cf. e.g. Remark 2.5.9 in [83]. On a finite interval [0, T ] we also have the integration by parts relation The triangle inequality kfk − fn kL2 (R+ ) ≤ kfk − f kL2 (R+ ) + kf − fn kL2 (R+ ) follows from the Minkowski inequality. ∗ " 87 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault wT 0 f (t)dBt = f (T )BT − wT 0 Bt f 0 (t)dt. (4.11) 4.3 Itô Stochastic Integral In this section we extend the Wiener stochastic integral to square-integrable adapted processes. Recall that a process (Xt )t∈R+ is said to be Ft -adapted if Xt is Ft -measurable for all t ∈ R+ , where the information flow (Ft )t∈R+ has been defined in (4.1). Recall, as examples, that - the process (Bt )t∈R+ is adapted, - the process (Bt+1 )t∈R+ is not adapted, - the process (Bt/2 )t∈R+ is adapted, - the process (B√t )t∈R+ is not adapted. In other words, a process (Xt )t∈R+ is Ft -adapted if the value of Xt at time t depends only on information known up to time t. Note that the value of Xt may still depend on “known” future data, for example a fixed future date in the calendar, such as a maturity time T > t, as long as its value is known at time t. The extension of the stochastic integral to adapted random processes is actually necessary in order to compute a portfolio value when the portfolio process is no longer deterministic. This happens in particular when one needs to update the portfolio allocation based on random events occurring on the market. Stochastic integrals of adapted processes will be first constructed as integrals of simple predictable processes (ut )t∈R+ of the form ut := n X Fi 1(ti−1 ,ti ] (t), t ∈ R+ , (4.12) i=1 where Fi is an Fti−1 -measurable random variable for i = 1, . . . , n. For example, a natural approximation of (Bt )t∈R+ by a simple predictable process can be constructed as ut := n X Bti−1 1(ti−1 ,ti ] (t), t ∈ R+ , i=1 88 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus since Bti−1 is Fti−1 -measurable for i = 1, . . . , n. The notion of simple predictable process is natural in the context of portfolio investment, in which Fi will represent an investment allocation decided at time ti−1 and to remain unchanged over the time period (ti−1 , ti ]. By convention, u : Ω × R+ −→ R is denoted in the sequel by ut (ω), t ∈ R+ , ω ∈ Ω, and the random outcome ω is often dropped for convenience of notation. Definition 4.5. The stochastic integral with respect to Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ of any simple predictable process (ut )t∈R+ of the form (4.12) is defined by n w∞ X ut dBt := Fi (Bti − Bti−1 ). (4.13) 0 i=1 The use of predictability in the definition (4.13) is essential from a financial point of view, as Fi will represent a portfolio allocation made at time ti−1 and kept constant over the trading interval [ti−1 , ti ], while Bti − Bti−1 represents a change in the underlying asset price over [ti−1 , ti ]. See also the related discussion on self-financing portfolios in Section 5.2 and Lemma 5.2 on the use of stochastic integrals to represent the value of a portfolio. The next proposition gives the extension of the stochastic integral from simple predictable processes to square-integrable Ft -adapted processes (Xt )t∈R+ for which the value of Xt at time t only depends on information contained in the Brownian path up to time t. This also means that knowing the future is not permitted in the definition of the Itô integral, for example a portfolio strategy that would allow the trader to “buy at the lowest” and “sell at the highest” is not possible as it would require knowledge of future market data. Note that the difference between Relation (4.14) below and Relation (4.9) is the expectation on the right hand side. Proposition 4.6. The stochastic integral with respect to Brownian motion (Bt )t∈R+ extends to all adapted processes (ut )t∈R+ such that i hw ∞ |ut |2 dt < ∞, IE 0 with the Itô isometry IE w ∞ 0 ut dBt 2 = IE hw ∞ 0 i |ut |2 dt . (4.14) In addition, the Itô integral of an adapted process (ut )t∈R+ is always a centered random variable: " 89 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault IE hw ∞ 0 i us dBs = 0. (4.15) Proof. We start by showing that the Itô isometry (4.14) holds for the simple predictable process u of the form (4.12). We have !2 w n 2 X ∞ IE ut dBt = IE Fi (Bti − Bti−1 ) 0 i=1 = IE n X Fi Fj (Bti − Bti−1 )(Btj − Btj−1 ) i,j=1 = IE " n X # |Fi |2 (Bti − Bti−1 )2 i=1 X +2 IE Fi Fj (Bti − Bti−1 )(Btj − Btj−1 ) 1≤i<j≤n = n X IE[IE[|Fi |2 (Bti − Bti−1 )2 |Fti−1 ]] i=1 +2 X IE[IE[Fi Fj (Bti − Bti−1 )(Btj − Btj−1 )|Ftj−1 ]] 1≤i<j≤n = n X IE[|Fi |2 IE[(Bti − Bti−1 )2 |Fti−1 ]] i=1 +2 X IE[Fi Fj (Bti − Bti−1 ) IE[(Btj − Btj−1 )|Ftj−1 ]] 1≤i<j≤n = n X IE[|Fi |2 IE[(Bti − Bti−1 )2 ]] i=1 +2 X IE[Fi Fj (Bti − Bti−1 ) IE[Btj − Btj−1 ]] 1≤i<j≤n = n X IE[|Fi |2 (ti − ti−1 )] i=1 = IE " n X # |Fi |2 (ti − ti−1 ) i=1 = IE hw ∞ 0 i |ut |2 dt , where we applied the “tower property” (17.36) of conditional expectations and the facts that Bti − Bti−1 is independent of Fti−1 and IE[Bti − Bti−1 ] = 0, IE (Bti − Bti−1 )2 = ti − ti−1 , i = 1, . . . , n. 90 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus The extension of the stochastic integral to square-integrable adapted processes (ut )t∈R+ is obtained as in Proposition 4.4 by density and a Cauchy sequence argument using the isometry (4.14), in the same way as in the proof of Proposition 4.4. Let L2 (Ω × R+ ) denote the space of square-integrable stochastic processes u : Ω × R+ −→ R such that hw ∞ i kuk2L2 (Ω×R+ ) := IE |ut |2 dt < ∞. 0 By Lemma 1.1 of [56], pages 22 and 46, or Proposition 2.5.3 of [83], the set of simple predictable processes forms a linear space which is dense in the subspace L2ad (Ω × R+ ) made of square-integrable adapted processes in L2 (Ω × R+ ). In other words, given u a square-integrable adapted process there exists a sequence (un )n∈N of simple predictable processes converging to u in L2 (Ω × R+ ). Since this sequence it is Cauchy in L2 (Ω × R+ ) r n converges, hence by the isometry (4.14), ut dBt n∈N is a Cauchy sequence in L2 (Ω), hence it converges in the complete space L2 (Ω). In this case we let w∞ w∞ ut dBt := lim unt dBt n→∞ 0 0 and the limit is unique from (4.14) and satisfies (4.14). The fact that the ranw∞ dom variable us dBs is centered can be proved first on simple predictable 0 process u of the form (4.12) as " n # hw ∞ i X IE ut dBt = IE Fi (Bti − Bti−1 ) 0 i=1 " = IE n X # Fi (Bti − Bti−1 ) i=1 = = = n X i=1 n X i=1 n X IE[IE[Fi (Bti − Bti−1 )|Fti−1 ]] IE[Fi IE[Bti − Bti−1 |Fti−1 ]] IE[Fi IE[Bti − Bti−1 ]] i=1 = 0, and this identity extends as above from simple predictable processes to adapted processes u in L2 (Ω × R+ ). Note also that by bilinearity, the Itô isometry (4.14) can also be written as hw ∞ i hw ∞ i w∞ IE ut dBt vt dBt = IE ut vt dt , 0 " 0 0 91 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault for all square-integrable adapted processes u, v. In addition, whenwthe integrand (ut )t∈R+ is not a deterministic function, ∞ the random variable us dBs no longer has a Gaussian distribution, except 0 in some exceptional cases. Definite stochastic integral The definite stochastic integral of u over the interval [a, b] is defined as wb a ut dBt := w∞ 0 1[a,b] (t)ut dBt , with in particular wb a dBt = w∞ 0 1[a,b] (t)dBt = Bb − Ba , 0 ≤ a ≤ b, We also have the Chasles relation wc wb wc ut dBt = ut dBt + ut dBt , a a 0 ≤ a ≤ b ≤ c, b and the stochastic integral has the following linearity property: w∞ w∞ w∞ (ut + vt )dBt = ut dBt + vt dBt , u, v ∈ L2 (R+ ). 0 0 0 As an application of the Itô isometry (4.14) we note in particular that " 2 # w w wT wT T T T2 . IE Bt dBt = IE |Bt |2 dt = IE |Bt |2 dt = tdt = 0 0 0 0 2 Stochastic modeling of asset returns In the sequel we will define the return at time t ∈ R+ of the risky asset (St )t∈R+ as dSt = µdt + σdBt , St with µ ∈ R and σ > 0. This equation can be formally rewritten in integral form as wT wT ST = S0 + µ St dt + σ St dBt , 0 0 hence the need to define an integral with respect to dBt , in addition to the usual integral with respect to dt. Note that in view of the definition (4.13), this is a continuous-time extension of the notion portfolio value based on a 92 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus predictable portfolio strategy. In Proposition 4.6 we have defined the stochastic integral of squareintegrable processes with respect to Brownian motion, thus we have made sense of the equation ST = S0 + µ wT 0 St dt + σ wT 0 St dBt , for (St )t∈R+ an Ft -adapted process, which can be rewritten in differential notation as dSt = µSt dt + σSt dBt , or dSt = µdt + σdBt . St (4.16) This model will be used to represent the random price St of a risky asset at time t. Here the return dSt /St of the asset is made of two components: a constant return µdt and a random return σdBt parametrized by the coefficient σ, called the volatility. 4.4 Stochastic Calculus Our goal is now to solve Equation (4.16) and for this we will need to introduce Itô’s calculus in Section 4.4 after reviewing classical deterministic calculus at the beginning of Section 4.4. Deterministic calculus The fundamental theorem of calculus states that for any continuously differentiable (deterministic) function f we have wx f (x) = f (0) + f 0 (y)dy. 0 In differential notation this relation is written as the first order expansion df (x) = f 0 (x)dx, (4.17) where dx is “small”. Higher order expansions can be obtained from Taylor’s formula, which, letting df (x) = f (x + dx) − f (x), states that 1 1 1 df (x) = f 0 (x)dx + f 00 (x)(dx)2 + f 000 (x)(dx)3 + f (4) (x)(dx)4 + · · · . 2 3! 4! " 93 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Note that Relation (4.17) can be obtained by neglecting the terms of order larger than one in Taylor’s formula, since (dx)n << dx when n ≥ 2 and dx is “small”. Stochastic calculus Let us now apply Taylor’s formula to Brownian motion, taking dBt = Bt+dt − Bt , and letting df (Bt ) = f (Bt+dt ) − f (Bt ), we have df (Bt ) 1 1 1 = f 0 (Bt )dBt + f 00 (Bt )(dBt )2 + f 000 (Bt )(dBt )3 + f (4) (Bt )(dBt )4 + · · · . 2 3! 4! From √ the construction of Brownian motion by its small increments dBt = ± dt, it turns out that the terms in (dt)2 and dtdBt = ±(dt)3/2 can be neglected in Taylor’s formula at the first order of approximation in dt. However, the term of order two √ (dBt )2 = (± dt)2 = dt can no longer be neglected in front of dt. Simple Itô formula For f ∈ C 2 (R), Taylor’s formula written at the second order for Brownian motion reads 1 df (Bt ) = f 0 (Bt )dBt + f 00 (Bt )dt, 2 (4.18) for “small” dt. Note that writing this formula as df (Bt ) dBt 1 = f 0 (Bt ) + f 00 (Bt ) dt dt 2 does not make sense because the derivative √ dBt dt 1 '± ' ± √ ' ±∞ dt dt dt does not exist. Integrating (4.18) on both sides and using the relation 94 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus f (Bt ) − f (B0 ) = wt 0 df (Bs ) we get the integral form of Itô’s formula for Brownian motion, i.e. f (Bt ) = f (B0 ) + wt 0 f 0 (Bs )dBs + 1 w t 00 f (Bs )ds. 2 0 Itô formula for Itô processes We now turn to the general expression of Itô’s formula which applies to Itô processes of the form wt wt Xt = X0 + vs ds + us dBs , t ∈ R+ , (4.19) 0 0 or in differential notation dXt = vt dt + ut dBt , where (ut )t∈R+ and (vt )t∈R+ are square-integrable adapted processes. Given (t, x) 7−→ f (t, x) a smooth function of two variables on R+ ×R, from ∂f denote partial differentiation with respect to the second ∂x ∂f denote partial differentiation with respect to the variable in f (t, x), while ∂t first (time) variable in f (t, x). now on we let Theorem 4.7. (Itô formula for Itô processes). For any Itô process (Xt )t∈R+ of the form (4.19) and any f ∈ C 1,2 (R+ × R) we have w t ∂f w t ∂f f (t, Xt ) = f (0, X0 ) + vs (s, Xs )ds + us (s, Xs )dBs 0 0 ∂x ∂x w t ∂f w 2 1 t ∂ f |us |2 2 (s, Xs )ds. + (s, Xs )ds + (4.20) 0 ∂s 2 0 ∂x Proof. cf. Theorem II-32, page 71 of [93]. From the relation wt 0 df (s, Xs ) = f (t, Xt ) − f (0, X0 ), we can rewrite (4.20) as wt 0 " df (s, Xs ) = wt 0 vs w t ∂f ∂f (s, Xs )ds + us (s, Xs )dBs 0 ∂x ∂x 95 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault + w t ∂f 1wt ∂2f (s, Xs )ds + |us |2 2 (s, Xs )ds, 0 ∂s 2 0 ∂x which allows us to rewrite (4.20) in differential notation, as df (t, Xt ) (4.21) 2 ∂f ∂f ∂f 1 2∂ f (t, Xt )dt, = (t, Xt )dt + ut (t, Xt )dBt + vt (t, Xt )dt + |ut | ∂t ∂x ∂x 2 ∂x2 or df (t, Xt ) = ∂f 1 ∂2f ∂f (t, Xt )dt + (t, Xt )dXt + |ut |2 2 (t, Xt )dt. ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x In case the function x 7−→ f (x) does not depend on the time variable t we get df (t, Xt ) = ut ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, Xt )dBt + vt (t, Xt )dt + |ut |2 2 (t, Xt )dt, ∂x ∂x 2 ∂x and df (t, Xt ) = 1 ∂f ∂2f (t, Xt )dXt + |ut |2 2 (t, Xt )dt. ∂x 2 ∂x Taking ut = 1 and vt = 0 in (4.19) yields Xt = Bt , in which case the Itô formula (4.20) reads f (t, Bt ) = f (0, B0 ) + w t ∂f w t ∂f 1 w t ∂2f (s, Bs )ds + (s, Bs )dBs + (s, Bs )ds, 0 ∂x 0 ∂s 2 0 ∂x2 i.e. in differential notation: df (t, Bt ) = ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, Bt )dt + (t, Bt )dBt + (t, Bt )dt. ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 (4.22) Itô multiplication table Next, consider two Itô processes (Xt )t∈R+ and (Yt )t∈R+ written in integral form as wt wt Xt = X0 + vs ds + us dBs , t ∈ R+ , 0 0 and 96 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus Yt = Y0 + wt bs ds + 0 wt 0 t ∈ R+ , as dBs , or in differential notation as dXt = vt dt + ut dBt , and dYt = bt dt + at dBt , t ∈ R+ . The Itô formula also shows that d(Xt Yt ) = Xt dYt + Yt dXt + dXt · dYt where the product dXt · dYt is computed according to the Itô rule dt · dt = 0, dt · dBt = 0, dBt · dBt = dt, (4.23) i.e. dXt · dYt = (vt dt + ut dBt ) · (bt dt + at dBt ) = bt vt (dt)2 + bt ut dtdBt + at vt dtdBt + at ut (dBt )2 = at ut dt. Hence we have (dXt )2 = (vt dt + ut dBt )2 = (vt )2 (dt)2 + (ut )2 (dBt )2 + 2ut vt (dt · dBt ) = (ut )2 dt, according to the Itô table · dt dBt dt 0 0 dBt 0 dt Table 4.1: Itô multiplication table. Consequently, (4.21) can also be rewriten as ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, Xt )dt + (t, Xt )dXt + (t, Xt )(dXt )2 ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 ∂f ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f = (t, Xt )dt + vt (t, Xt )dt + ut (t, Xt )dBt + (ut )2 2 (t, Xt )dt. ∂t ∂x ∂x 2 ∂x df (t, Xt ) = Example Apply Itô’s formula (4.22) to Bt2 with Bt2 = f (t, Bt ) and f (t, x) = x2 , " 97 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault we get d(Bt2 ) = df (Bt ) ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f = (t, Bt )dt (t, Bt )dt + (t, Bt )dBt + ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 = 2Bt dBt + dt, since ∂f (t, x) = 0, ∂t ∂f (t, x) = 2x, ∂x 1 ∂2f (t, x) = 1, 2 ∂x2 and hence by integration we find wT Bs dBs + wT wT Bs dBs = 1 BT2 − T . 2 BT2 = B0 + 2 and 0 0 0 dt = 2 wT 0 Bs dBs + T, Notation We close this section with some comments on the practice of Itô’s calculus. In some finance textbooks, Itô’s formula for e.g. geometric Brownian motion can be found written in the notation wT wT ∂f ∂f f (T, ST ) = f (0, X0 ) + σ St (t, St )dBt + µ St (t, St )dt 0 0 ∂St ∂St w T ∂f w T 1 ∂2f + (t, St )dt + σ 2 St2 2 (t, St )dt, 0 ∂t 0 2 ∂St or df (St ) = σSt ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (St )dBt + µSt (St )dt + σ 2 St2 2 (St )dt. ∂St ∂St 2 ∂St ∂f (St ) can in fact be easily misused in combination with the ∂St fundamental theorem of classical calculus, and lead to the wrong identity The notation df (St ) = ∂f (St )dSt . ∂St Similarly, writing df (Bt ) = df 1 d2 f (Bt )dBt + (Bt )dt dx 2 dx2 is consistent, while writing 98 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus df (Bt ) = df (Bt ) 1 d2 f (Bt ) dBt + dt dBt 2 dBt2 is potentially a source of confusion. 4.5 Geometric Brownian Motion Our aim in this section is to solve the stochastic differential equation dSt = µSt dt + σSt dBt (4.24) that will defined the price St of a risky asset at time t, where µ ∈ R and σ > 0. This equation is rewritten in integral form as wt wt St = S0 + µ Ss ds + σ Ss dBs , t ∈ R+ . (4.25) 0 0 It can be solved by applying Itô’s formula to the Itô process (St )t∈R+ as in (4.19) with vt = µSt and ut = σSt , and by taking f (St ) = log St with f (x) = log x, which shows that 1 d log St = µSt f 0 (St )dt + σSt f 0 (St )dBt + σ 2 St2 f 00 (St )dt 2 1 = µdt + σdBt − σ 2 dt, 2 hence log St − log S0 = wt d log Sr 0 wt wt 1 σdBr = µ − σ 2 dr + 0 0 2 1 = µ − σ 2 t + σBt , t ∈ R+ , 2 and St = S0 exp 1 µ − σ 2 t + σBt , 2 t ∈ R+ . The above provides a proof of the next proposition. Proposition 4.8. The solution of (4.24) is given by St = S0 eµt+σBt −σ 2 t/2 , t ∈ R+ . Proof. Let us provide an alternative proof by searching for a solution of the form St = f (t, Bt ) " 99 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault where f (t, x) is a function to be determined. By Itô’s formula (4.22) we have dSt = df (t, Bt ) = ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, Bt )dt. (t, Bt )dt + (t, Bt )dBt + ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 Comparing this expression to (4.24) and identifying the terms in dBt we get ∂f (t, Bt ) = σSt , ∂x 1 ∂2f ∂f (t, Bt ) + (t, Bt ) = µSt . ∂t 2 ∂x2 Using the relation St = f (t, Bt ), these two equations rewrite as ∂f (t, Bt ) = σf (t, Bt ), ∂x ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, Bt ) + (t, Bt ) = µf (t, Bt ). ∂t 2 ∂x2 Since Bt is a Gaussian random variable taking all possible values in R, the equations should hold for all x ∈ R, as follows: ∂f (t, x) = σf (t, x), (4.28a) ∂x ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, x) + (t, x) = µf (t, x). ∂t 2 ∂x2 (4.28b) To solve (4.28a) we let g(t, x) = log f (t, x) and rewrite (4.28a) as ∂g ∂ log f 1 ∂f (t, x) = (t, x) = (t, x) = σ, ∂x ∂x f (t, x) ∂x i.e. which is solved as hence ∂g (t, x) = σ, ∂x g(t, x) = g(t, 0) + σx, f (t, x) = eg(t,0) eσx = f (t, 0)eσx . Plugging back this expression into the second equation (4.28b) yields 100 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus eσx ∂f 1 (t, 0) + σ 2 eσx f (t, 0) = µf (t, 0)eσx , ∂t 2 i.e. ∂f (t, 0) = µ − σ 2 /2 f (t, 0). ∂t ∂g In other words, we have (t, 0) = µ − σ 2 /2, which yields ∂t g(t, 0) = g(0, 0) + µ − σ 2 /2 t, i.e. f (t, x) = eg(t,x) = eg(t,0)+σx 2 = eg(0,0)+σx+(µ−σ /2)t = f (0, 0)eσx+(µ−σ 2 /2)t t ∈ R+ . , We conclude that St = f (t, Bt ) = f (0, 0)eσBt +(µ−σ 2 /2)t , and the solution to (4.24) is given by St = S0 eσBt +(µ−σ 2 /2)t , t ∈ R+ . The next Figure 4.7 presents an illustration of the geometric Brownian process of Proposition 4.8. 4 St ert 3.5 3 St 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 t Fig. 4.7: Geometric Brownian motion started at S0 = 1, with r = 1 and σ 2 = 0.5.∗ " 101 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Conversely, taking St = f (t, Bt ) with f (t, x) = S0 eσx−σ Itô’s formula to check that 2 t/2+µt we may apply dSt = df (t, Bt ) ∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f (t, Bt )dt = (t, Bt )dt + (t, Bt )dBt + ∂t ∂x 2 ∂x2 2 2 = µ − σ 2 /2 S0 eσBt +(µ−σ /2)t dt + σS0 eσBt +(µ−σ /2)t dBt 2 1 + σ 2 S0 eσBt +(µ−σ /2)t dt 2 2 2 = µS eσBt +(µ−σ /2)t dt + σS eσBt +(µ−σ /2)t dB 0 t 0 = µSt dt + σSt dBt . 4.6 Stochastic Differential Equations In addition to geometric Brownian motion there exists a large family of stochastic differential equations that can be studied, although most of the time they cannot be explicitly solved. Let now σ : R+ × Rn −→ Rd ⊗ Rn where Rd ⊗ Rn denotes the space of d × n matrices, and b : R+ × Rn −→ R satisfy the global Lipschitz condition kσ(t, x) − σ(t, y)k2 + kb(t, x) − b(t, y)k2 ≤ K 2 kx − yk2 , t ∈ R+ , x, y ∈ Rn . Then there exists a unique strong solution to the stochastic differential equation wt wt σ(s, Xs )dBs + b(s, Xs )ds, t ∈ R+ , Xt = X0 + 0 0 where (Bt )t∈R+ is a d-dimensional Brownian motion, see e.g. [93], Theorem V7. Next, we consider a few examples of stochastic differential equations that can be solved explicitly using Itô calculus, in addition to geometric Brownian motion. ∗ The animation works in Acrobat reader on the entire pdf file. 102 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus Examples 1. Consider the stochastic differential equation dXt = −αXt dt + σdBt , X0 = x0 , with α > 0 and σ > 0. Looking for a solution of the form wt Xt = a(t) x0 + b(s)dBs 0 where a(·) and b(·) are deterministic functions, yields Xt = x0 e−αt + σ wt 0 e−α(t−s) dBs , t ∈ R+ , (4.29) rt after applying Theorem 4.7 to the Itô process x0 + 0 b(s)dBs of the form (4.19) with ut = b(t) and v(t) = 0, and to the function f (t, x) = a(t)x. Remark: the solution of this equation cannot be written as a function f (t, Bt ) of t and Bt as in the proof of Proposition 4.8. 2. Consider the stochastic differential equation dXt = tXt dt + et 2 X0 = x0 . rt Looking for a solution of the form Xt = a(t) X0 + 0 b(s)dBs , where /2 dBt , a(·) and b(·) are deterministic functions we get a0 (t)/a(t) = t and 2 2 a(t)b(t) = et /2 , hence a(t) = et /2 and b(t) = 1, which yields Xt = t2 /2 e (X0 + Bt ), t ∈ R+ . 3. Consider the stochastic differential equation dYt = (2µYt + σ 2 )dt + 2σ p Yt dBt , where µ, σ > 0. Letting Xt = √ Yt we have dXt = µXt dt + σdBt , hence Yt = " p 2 wt eµt Y0 + σ eµ(t−s) dBs . 0 103 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Exercises Exercise 4.1 Let (Bt )t∈R+ denote a standard Brownian motion. a) Let c > 0. Among the following processes, tell which is a standard Brownian motion and which is not. Justify your answer. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (Bc+t − Bc )t∈R+ . (cBt/c2 )t∈R+ . (Bct2 )t∈R+ . (Bt + Bt/2 )t∈R+ . b) Compute the stochastic integrals wT 0 2dBt wT and 0 (2 × 1[0,T /2] (t) + 1(T /2,T ] (t))dBt and determine their probability laws (including mean and variance). c) Determine the probability law (including mean and variance) of the stochastic integral w 2π 0 sin(t) dBt . d) Compute IE[Bt Bs ] in terms of s, t ≥ 0. e) Let T > 0. Show that if f is a differentiable function with f (0) = f (T ) = 0 we have wT wT f (t)dBt = − f 0 (t)Bt dt. 0 0 Hint: Apply Itô’s calculus to t 7→ f (t)Bt . Exercise 4.2 Consider the price process (St )t∈R+ given by the stochastic differential equation dSt = rSt dt + σSt dBt . Find the stochastic integral decomposition of the random variable ST , i.e. find the constant C and the process (ζt )t∈[0,T ] such that ST = C + wT 0 ζt dBt . (4.30) Exercise 4.3 Given T > 0, find a stochastic integral decomposition of BT3 of the form wT ζt dBt , (4.31) BT3 = C + 0 where C ∈ R is a constant and (ζt )t∈[0,T ] is an adapted process to be determined. 104 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus Exercise 4.4 Let f ∈ L2 ([0, T ]). Compute the conditional expectation h rT i 0 ≤ t ≤ T, IE e 0 f (s)dBs Ft , where (Ft )t∈[0,T ] denotes the filtration generated by (Bt )t∈[0,T ] . Exercise 4.5 Let f ∈ L2 ([0, T ]) and consider a standard Brownian motion (Bt )t∈[0,T ] . Show that the process w t 1wt 2 t 7−→ exp f (s)dBs − f (s)ds , t ∈ [0, T ], 0 2 0 is an (Ft )-martingale, where (Ft )t∈[0,T ] denotes the filtration generated by (Bt )t∈[0,T ] . Exercise 4.6 Consider (Bt )t∈R+ a standard Brownian motion generating the filtration (Ft )t∈R+ and the process (St )t∈R+ defined by w wt t St = S0 exp σs dBs + us ds , t ∈ R+ , 0 0 where (σt )t∈R+ and (ut )t∈R+ are Ft -adapted processes. a) Compute dSt using Itô calculus. b) Show that St satisfies a stochastic differential equation to be determined. Exercise 4.7 Compute the expectation w T IE exp β Bt dBt 0 for all β < 1/T . Hint: expand (BT ) using Itô’s formula. 2 Exercise 4.8 a) Solve the ordinary differential equation df (t) = cf (t)dt and the stochastic differential equation dSt = rSt dt + σSt dBt , t ∈ R+ , where r, σ ∈ R are constants and (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion. b) Show that IE[St ] = S0 ert and 2 Var[St ] = S02 e2rt (eσ t − 1), t ∈ R+ . c) Compute d log St . " 105 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault d) Assume that (Wt )t∈R+ is another standard Brownian motion, correlated to (Bt )t∈R+ according to the Itô rule dWt · dBt = ρdt, for ρ ∈ [−1, 2], and consider the solution (Yt )t∈R+ of the stochastic differential equation dYt = µYt dt + ηYt dWt , t ∈ R+ , where µ, η ∈ R are constants. Compute f (St , Yt ), for f a C 2 function of R2 . Exercise 4.9 a) Solve the stochastic differential equation dXt = −bXt dt + σe−bt dBt , t ∈ R+ , where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion and σ, b > 0. b) Solve the stochastic differential equation dXt = −bXt dt + σe−at dBt , t ∈ R+ , where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion and a, b, σ > 0 are positive constants. Exercise 4.10 Given T > 0, let (XtT )t∈[0,T ) denote the solution of the stochastic differential equation dXtT = σdBt − XtT dt, T −t t ∈ [0, T ), (4.32) under the initial condition X0T = 0 and σ > 0. a) Show that XtT = σ(T − t) wt 0 1 dBs , T −s t ∈ [0, T ). Hint: start by computing d(XtT /(T − t)) using Itô’s calculus. b) Show that IE[XtT ] = 0 for all t ∈ [0, T ). c) Show that Var[XtT ] = σ 2 t(T − t)/T for all t ∈ [0, T ). d) Show that limt→T XtT = 0 in L2 (Ω). The process (XtT )t∈[0,T ] is called a Brownian bridge. Exercise 4.11 Exponential Vasicek model (1). Consider a Vasicek process (rt )t∈R+ solution of the stochastic differential equation drt = (a − brt )dt + σdBt , t ∈ R+ , where (Bt )t∈R+ is a standard Brownian motion and σ, a, b > 0 are positive constants. Show that the exponential Xt := ert of rt satisfies a stochastic differential equation of the form 106 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus dXt = Xt (ã − b̃f (Xt ))dt + σg(Xt )dBt , where the coefficients ã and b̃ and the functions f (x) and g(x) are to be determined. Exercise 4.12 Exponential Vasicek model (2). Consider a short term rate interest rate proces (rt )t∈R+ in the exponential Vasicek model: drt = rt (η − a log rt )dt + σrt dBt , (4.33) where η, a, σ are positive parameters. a) Find the solution (zt )t∈R+ of the stochastic differential equation dzt = −azt dt + σdBt as a function of the initial condition z0 , where a and σ are positive parameters. b) Find the solution (Yt )t∈R+ of the stochastic differential equation dYt = (θ − aYt )dt + σdBt (4.34) as a function of the initial condition Y0 . Hint: let zt = Yt − θ/a. c) Let xt = eYt , t ∈ R+ . Determine the stochastic differential equation satisfied by (xt )t∈R+ . d) Find the solution (rt )t∈R+ of (4.33) in terms of the initial condition r0 . e) Compute the mean∗ IE[rt ] of rt , t ≥ 0. f) Compute the asymptotic mean limt→∞ IE[rt ]. Exercise 4.13 Cox-Ingerson-Ross model. Consider the equation √ drt = (α − βrt )dt + σ rt dBt (4.35) modeling the variations of a short term interest rate process rt , where α, β, σ and r0 are positive parameters. a) Write down the equation (4.35) in integral form. b) Let u(t) = IE[rt ]. Show, using the integral form of (4.35), that u(t) satisfies the differential equation u0 (t) = α − βu(t). c) By an application of Itô’s formula to rt2 , show that 3/2 drt2 = rt (2α + σ 2 − 2βrt )dt + 2σrt dBt . (4.36) α2 /2 One may use the Gaussian moment generating function IE[e ] = e N (0, α2 ). ∗ " X for X ' 107 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault d) Using the integral form of (4.36), find a differential equation satisfied by v(t) = IE[rt2 ]. Exercise 4.14 Let (Bt )t∈R+ denote a standard Brownian motion generating the filtration (Ft )t∈R+ . a) Consider the Itô formula w t ∂f 1 w t 2 ∂2f ∂f (Xs )dBs + vs (Xs )ds+ u (Xs )ds, 0 ∂x ∂x 2 0 s ∂x2 (4.37) wt wt where Xt = X0 + us dBs + vs ds. f (Xt ) = f (X0 )+ wt 0 us 0 0 Compute St := eXt by the Itô formula (4.37) applied to f (x) = ex and Xt = σBt + νt, σ > 0, ν ∈ R. b) Let r > 0. For which value of ν does (St )t∈R+ satisfy the stochastic differential equation dSt = rSt dt + σSt dBt ? c) Let the process (St )t∈R+ be defined by St = S0 eσBt +νt , t ∈ R+ . Using the result of Exercise A.2, show that the conditional probability P(ST > K | St = x) is given by log(x/K) + ν(T − t) √ P(ST > K | St = x) = Φ , σ T −t Hint: use the decomposition ST = St eσ(BT −Bt )+ν(T −t) . d) Given 0 ≤ t ≤ T and σ > 0, let X = σ(BT − Bt ) and η 2 = Var[X], η > 0. What is η equal to? Problem 4.15 The goal of this problem is to prove the existence of standard Brownian motion (Bt )t∈[0,1] as a stochastic process satisfying the four properties of Definition 4.1, i.e.: 1. B0 = 0 almost surely, 2. The sample trajectories t 7−→ Bt are continuous, with probability 1. 3. For any finite sequence of times t0 < t1 < · · · < tn , the increments Bt1 − Bt0 , Bt2 − Bt1 , . . . , Btn − Btn−1 are independent. 108 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus 4. For any given times 0 ≤ s < t, Bt − Bs has the Gaussian distribution N (0, t − s) with mean zero and variance t − s. The construction will proceed by the linear interpolation scheme illustrated in Figure 4.4. We work on the space C0 ([0, 1]) of continuous functions on [0, 1] started at 0, with the norm kf k∞ := max |f (t)| t∈[0,1] and the distance kf − gk∞ := max |f (t) − g(t)|. t∈[0,1] The following ten questions are interdependent. a) Show that for any Gaussian random variable X ' N (0, σ 2 ) we have 2 2 σ e−ε /(2σ ) , P(|X| ≥ ε) ≤ p ε π/2 ε > 0. Hint: Start from the inequality IE[(X − ε)+ ] ≥ 0 and compute the lefthand side. b) Let X and Y be two independent centered Gaussian random variables with variances α2 and β 2 . Show that the conditional distribution P(X ∈ dx | X + Y = z) of X given X + Y = z is Gaussian with mean α2 z/(α2 + β 2 ) and variance α2 β 2 /(α2 + β 2 ). Hint: Use the definition P(X ∈ dx | X + Y = z) := P(X ∈ dx and X + Y ∈ dz) P(X + Y ∈ dz) and the formulas P(X ∈ dx) := √ 1 2πα2 e−x 2 /(2α2 ) dx, P(Y ∈ dx) := p 1 2πβ 2 e−x 2 /(2β 2 ) dx, where dx (resp. dy) represents a “small” interval [x, x + dx] (resp. [y, y + dy]). c) Let (Bt )t∈R+ denote a standard Brownian motion and let 0 < u < v. Give the distribution of B(u+v)/2 given that Bu = x and Bv = y. Hint: Note that given that Bu = x, the random variable Bv can be written as Bv = (Bv − B(u+v)/2 ) + (B(u+v)/2 − Bu ) + x, (4.38) " 109 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault and apply the result of Question (b) after identifying X and Y in the above decomposition (4.38). d) Consider the random sequences (0) (0) Z = 0, Z1 (0) (1) (1) Z = 0, Z1/2 , Z1 Z (2) = 0, Z (2) , Z (1) , Z (2) , Z (0) 1 1/4 1/2 3/4 (3) (2) (3) (1) (3) (2) (3) (0) Z (3) = 0, Z1/8 , Z1/4 , Z3/8 , Z1/2 , Z5/8 , Z3/4 , Z7/8 , Z1 .. .. . . (n) (n) (n) (n) (n) Z (n) = 0, Z1/2 n , Z2/2n , Z3/2n , Z4/2n , . . . , Z1 (n+1) (n) (n+1) (n+1) (n+1) (n+1) (n+1) (n+1) Z = 0, Z1/2n+1 , Z1/2n , Z3/2n+1 , Z2/2n , Z5/2n+1 , Z3/2n , . . . , Z1 (n) with Z0 i) = 0, n ≥ 0, defined recursively as (0) Z1 ' N (0, 1), (0) (0) Z + Z1 ii) ' 0 + N (0, 1/4), 2 (1) (1) (1) (0) Z + Z Z1/2 + Z1 0 1/2 (2) (2) iii) Z1/4 ' + N (0, 1/8), Z3/4 ' + N (0, 1/8), 2 2 and more generally (1) Z1/2 (n) (n+1) Z(2k+1)/2n+1 = (n) Zk/2n + Z(k+1)/2n 2 +N (0, 1/2n+2 ), k = 0, 1, . . . , 2n −1, where N (0, 1/2n+2 ) is an independent centered Gaussian sample with (n+1) (n) variance 1/2n+2 , and Zk/2n := Zk/2n , k = 0, 1, . . . , 2n . (n) In the sequel we denote by Zt t∈[0,1] the continuous-time random path (n) obtained by linear interpolation of the sequence points in Zk/2n (0) k=0,1,...,2n (1) . Draw a sample of the first four linear interpolations Zt t∈[0,1] , Zt t∈[0,1] , (2) (3) (n) Zt t∈[0,1] , Zt t∈[0,1] , and label the values of Zk/2n on the graphs for n k = 0, 1, . . . , 2 and n = 0, 1, 2, 3. e) Using an induction argument, explain why for all n ≥ 0 the sequence 110 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus (n) (n) (n) (n) (n) Z (n) = 0, Z1/2n , Z2/2n , Z3/2n , Z4/2n , . . . , Z1 has same distribution as the sequence B (n) := B0 , B1/2n , B2/2n , B3/2n , B4/2n , . . . , B1 . Hint: Compare the constructions of Questions (c) and (d) and note that under the above linear interpolation, we have (n) (n) Z(2k+1)/2n+1 = (n) Zk/2n + Z(k+1)/2n 2 , k = 0, 1, . . . , 2n − 1. f) Show that for any εn > 0 we have (n+1) (n) P Z (n+1) − Z (n) ∞ ≥ εn ≤ 2n P |Z1/2n+1 − Z1/2n+1 | ≥ εn . Hint: Use the inequality P 2n −1 [ k=0 ! Ak ≤ n 2X −1 P(Ak ) k=0 for a suitable choice of events (Ak )k=0,1,...,2n −1 . g) Use the results of Questions (a) and (f) to show that for any εn > 0 we have 2 n+1 2n/2 P Z (n+1) − Z (n) ∞ ≥ εn ≤ √ e−εn 2 . εn 2π h) Taking εn = 2−n/4 , show that P ∞ X (n+1) Z − Z (n) ∞ < ∞ ! = 1. n=0 Hint: Show first that ∞ X P Z (n+1) − Z (n) ∞ ≥ 2−n/4 < ∞, n=0 and apply the Borel-Cantelli lemma. n o (n) i) Show that with probability one, the sequence Zt t∈[0,1] , n ≥ 1 converges uniformly on [0, 1] to a continuous (random) function (Zt )t∈[0,1] . Hint: Use the fact that C0 ([0, 1]) is a complete space for the k · k∞ norm. j) Argue that the limit (Zt )t∈[0,1] is a standard Brownian motion on [0, 1] by checking the four relevant properties. " 111 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Problem 4.16 Consider (Bt )t∈R+ a standard Brownian motion, and for any n ≥ 1 and T > 0, define the discretized quadratic variation (n) QT := n X (BkT /n − B(k−1)T /n )2 , n ≥ 1. k=1 h i (n) a) Compute IE QT , n ≥ 1. (n) b) Compute Var[QT ], n ≥ 1. c) Show that (n) lim QT = T, n→∞ where the limit is taken in L2 (Ω), that is, show that (n) lim kQT − T kL2 (Ω) = 0, n→∞ where s (n) QT − T L2 (Ω) IE := (n) QT − T 2 , n ≥ 1. d) By the result of Question (c), show that the limit wT 0 Bt dBt := lim n→∞ n X (BkT /n − B(k−1)T /n )B(k−1)T /n k=1 exists in L2 (Ω), and compute it. Hint: Use the identity (x − y)y = 1 2 (x − y 2 − (x − y)2 ), 2 x, y ∈ R. e) Consider the modified quadratic variation defined by (n) Q̃T := n X (B(k−1/2)T /n − B(k−1)T /n )2 , n ≥ 1. k=1 (n) Compute the limit limn→∞ Q̃T in L2 (Ω) by repeating the steps of Questions (a)-(c). f) By the result of Question (e), show that the limit wT 0 Bt ◦ dBt := lim n→∞ n X (BkT /n − B(k−1)T /n )B(k−1/2)T /n k=1 112 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html " Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus exists in L2 (Ω), and compute it. Hint: Use the identities (x − y)y = 1 2 (x − y 2 − (x − y)2 ), 2 and 1 2 (x − y 2 + (x − y)2 ), x, y ∈ R. 2 g) More generally, by repeating the steps of Questions (e) and (f), show that for any α ∈ [0, 1] the limit (x − y)x = wT 0 Bt ◦ dα Bt := lim n→∞ n X (BkT /n − B(k−1)T /n )B(k−α)T /n k=1 exists in L2 (Ω), and compute it. h) Comparison with deterministic calculus. Compute the limit lim n→∞ n X k=1 (k − α) T n k T T − (k − 1) n n for all values of α in [0, 1]. Exercise 4.17 Let (Bt )t∈R+ be a standard Brownian motion generating the information flow (Ft )t∈R+ . a) Let 0 ≤ t ≤ T . What is the probability law of BT − Bt ? b) From the answer to Exercise A.4-(b), show that r T − t −Bt2 /(2(T −t)) Bt IE[(BT )+ | Ft ] = e + Bt Φ √ , 2π T −t 0 ≤ t ≤ T . Hint: write BT = BT − Bt + Bt . c) Let σ > 0, ν ∈ R, and Xt := σBt + νt, t ∈ R+ . Compute eXt by applying the Itô formula wt w t ∂f ∂f 1 w t 2 ∂2f (Xs )dBs + vs (Xs )ds + u (Xs )ds 0 ∂x ∂x 2 0 s ∂x2 wt wt vs ds, to f (x) = ex , where Xt is written as Xt = X0 + us dBs + 0 0 t ∈ R+ . d) Let St = eXt , t ∈ R+ , and r > 0. For which value of ν does (St )t∈R+ satisfy the stochastic differential equation f (Xt ) = f (X0 ) + 0 us dSt = rSt dt + σSt dBt " ? 113 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html N. Privault Exercise 4.18 From the answer to Exercise A.4-(b), show that for any β ∈ R we have r T − t −(β−Bt )2 /(2(T −t)) β − Bt IE[(β − BT )+ | Ft ] = e + (β − Bt )Φ √ , 2π T −t 0 ≤ t ≤ T. Hint: write BT = BT − Bt + Bt . 114 This version: June 23, 2016 http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/nprivault/indext.html "