US Economic Indicators:
ADP Private Sector
Payrolls Report
Yardeni Research, Inc.
August 31, 2016
Dr. Edward Yardeni
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Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
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Mali Quintana
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Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
ADP Private Payrolls
ADP Private Payrolls: Company Size
ADP Private Payrolls: Total, Services & Goods
ADP Private Payrolls
August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
3-4
5
6-8
9-10
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ADP Private Payrolls
Figure 1.
700
500
700
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
(monthly change, thousands, sa)
500
300
300
Aug
100
100
-100
-100
Total (177.0)
-300
-300
-500
-500
-700
-700
-900
-900
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
350
350
250
250
Aug
150
150
50
50
-50
-50
-150
-150
Service-Providing (183.0)
-250
-250
-350
-350
-450
-450
-550
-550
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
100
100
50
50
0
0
Aug
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
Goods-Producing (-6.0)
-200
-200
-250
-250
-300
-300
-350
-350
yardeni.com
-400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-400
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
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ADP Private Payrolls
Figure 2.
700
500
700
NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
(monthly change, thousands, sa)
500
300
300
Aug
100
100
-100
-100
Total
-300
-300
ADP (177.0)
-500
-500
BLS (217.0)
-700
-700
-900
-900
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
350
350
250
250
Aug
150
150
50
50
-50
-50
-150
-150
Service-Providing
-250
-250
ADP (183.0)
-350
-350
BLS (201.0)
-450
-450
-550
-550
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
Aug
0
0
-50
-50
-100
-100
-150
-150
-200
-200
-250
Goods-Producing
-250
-300
ADP (-6.0)
-300
-350
BLS (16.0)
-350
-400
-400
-450
yardeni.com
-500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-450
-500
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
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ADP Private Payrolls: Company Size
Figure 3.
250
200
250
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
(monthly change, thousands, sa)
200
150
150
100
100
Aug
50
50
0
0
-50
-50
Small Companies
(1-49 Employees) (62.0)
-100
-100
-150
-150
-200
-200
-250
-250
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
200
200
100
100
Aug
0
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
Medium Companies
(50-499 Employees) (44.0)
-300
-300
-400
-400
-500
-500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
200
200
100
100
Aug
0
0
-100
-100
Large Companies
(over 500 Employees) (70.0)
-200
-200
yardeni.com
-300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-300
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Page 5 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
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ADP Private Payrolls: Total, Services & Goods
Figure 4.
55
55
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY COMPANY SIZE
(millions, sa)
Aug
50
50
45
45
40
40
Small Companies
(1-49 employees)
35
35
Medium Companies
(50-499 employees)
30
30
Large Companies
(over 500 employees)
25
20
25
yardeni.com
2005
2006
20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 5.
50
50
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE SERVICE PROVIDING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY COMPANY SIZE
(millions, sa)
Aug
45
45
40
40
35
35
Small Companies
(1-49 employees)
30
30
Medium Companies
(50-499 employees)
25
25
Large Companies
(over 500 employees)
20
15
20
yardeni.com
2005
2006
yardeni.com
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
15
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Page 6 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
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ADP Private Payrolls: Total, Services & Goods
Figure 6.
9
9
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE GOODS-PRODUCING PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY COMPANY SIZE
(millions, sa)
Small Companies
(1-49 employees)
Medium Companies
(50-499 employees)
Large Companies
(over 500 employees)
8
8
7
7
Aug
6
5
6
yardeni.com
2005
2006
5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 7.
45
45
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY COMPANY SIZE
(as a percent of total ADP)
Aug
40
40
35
35
Small Companies
(1-49 employees)
Medium Companies
(50-499 employees)
Large Companies
(over 500 employees)
30
30
25
20
25
yardeni.com
2005
2006
20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Page 7 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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ADP Private Payrolls: Total, Services & Goods
Figure 8.
50
50
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: SERVICE-PROVIDING BY COMPANY SIZE
(as a percent of total ADP Service-Providing)
40
40
Large Companies
(over 500 employees)
Medium Companies
(50-499 employees)
Small Companies
(1-49 employees)
30
20
30
Aug
yardeni.com
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
20
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 9.
40
40
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: GOODS-PRODUCING BY COMPANY SIZE
(as a percent of total ADP Goods-Producing)
38
38
Large Companies
(over 500 employees)
Medium Companies
(50-499 employees)
Small Companies
(1-49 employees)
36
34
36
34
32
32
30
30
Aug
28
yardeni.com
2006
28
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics, and Haver Analytics.
Page 8 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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ADP Private Payrolls
Figure 10.
150
100
150
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
100
(monthly change, thousands, sa)
50
50
Aug
0
-50
0
-50
Construction (-2.0)
-100
-100
-150
-150
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
100
100
Aug
0
0
-100
-100
Manufacturing (0.0)
-200
-200
yardeni.com
-300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
-300
2017
150
150
75
75
Aug
0
0
-75
-75
-150
-150
Trade, Transportation,
and Utilities (26.0)
-225
-225
-300
-300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
40
40
20
20
Aug
0
0
-20
-20
Financial Activities (15.0)
-40
-40
-60
-60
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
100
100
Aug
0
0
-100
-200
-100
Professional and
Business Services (52.0)
yardeni.com
2005
2006
-200
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics and Haver Analytics.
Page 9 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
ADP Private Payrolls
Figure 11.
9
8
9
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
(millions, sa)
8
7
7
Aug
Construction
6
6
5
5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
15
15
14
14
13
13
Manufacturing
Aug
12
12
11
11
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
28
28
Aug
27
27
Trade, Transportation
and Utilities
26
26
25
25
24
24
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
8.6
8.6
8.4
8.4
Aug
8.2
8.2
Financial Activities
8.0
8.0
7.8
7.8
7.6
7.6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
21
21
20
Aug
Professional and
Business Services
19
20
19
18
18
17
17
16
15
16
yardeni.com
2005
2006
15
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: ADP, Moody’s Analytics and Haver Analytics.
Page 10 / August 31, 2016 / US Economic Indicators: ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report
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