Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials and Economic
Costs for Climate Change (SERPEC-CC)
F-gases (HFCs, PFCs and SF6)
October 2009
Jan-Martin Rhiemeier, Jochen Harnisch
Ecofys
Financial support from the DGRTD (European Community Sixth Framework Programme) and DGENV of the
European Commission as well as of the Dutch and German ministries of Environment (VROM and BMU) is
acknowledged. The SERPEC paper reflects the opinion of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the
opinion of the European Commission, VROM and BMU on the results obtained.
Ecofys
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E x ec u t i v e S u m m a r y
The aim of the project Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials and Economic Costs for
Climate Change (SERPEC) is to identify the potential and costs of technical control options
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all European Unions sectors and Member States
in 2020 and 2030.
In this SERPEC sector report, we determine the potentials and costs of control options of
fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases) in the European Union (EU27). Together, emissions
of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
amount to 70 Mt CO2-eq. in 2005, some 1.4% of the overall greenhouse gas emissions in the
EU.
90
80
Mt CO2 eq
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Base (Direct)
0
2000
2005
Reduction
2010
2015
Reduction-extra
2020
2025
2030
Figure 1 Baseline an d abatement potential for F-gases in the EU27. The lower
dotted line, includes the (uncertain) phase out o f HFC-containing
refri geration systems between 2020 and 2030 (see mai n text).
Implementation of Regulation (EC) No 842/2006 on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases
and Directive 2006/40/EC relating to emissions from air-conditioning systems in motor
vehicles, can potentially decrease emissions to 54 Mt CO2-eq in 2020. The baseline
assumption is very uncertain though. A recently but clear trend is observed in which HCFC
containing refrigerants are replaced by HFCs. HFCs do not deplete the ozone layer but are
potent greenhouse gases. Thus, the transition away from ozone depleting substances like
HCFCs has implications for future climate. When such HFCs are not only applied in new but
also in existing refrigeration systmes, the total F-Gas emission in the baseline will increase to
around 81 CO2-eq in 2020 and 2030 (see Figure 1). The uncertainty in the baseline
I
emphasises the need for improvement of monitoring of F-gas emissions, as indeed
announced in the Regulation (EC) No 842/2006.
On top of this baseline emission we have identified an overall abatement potential of 26 Mt
in 2020. The most important (additional) abatement options are leakage reductions in the
refrigeration & air conditioning sector especially on commercial refrigeration systems and
mobile air conditioning systems in cars. The costs of leakage reduction options for different
applications of the refrigeration & air conditioning sector vary between 25 € and 100 € per tCO2-eq.
The earlier mentioned ‘HFC-uncertainty’ in the baseline development is also reflected in the
abatement potential. The baseline assumption that all existing refrigeration units that are still
using HCFCs will be retrofitted with HFC-refrigerants, implies that these HFCs can be
removed from these units –and replaced by new systems with natural refrigerants- when they
reach the end of their lifetime between 2020 and 2030. A first order estimate of this impact,
around 20 Mt CO2-eq. of abatement in 2030, is shown in Figure 1. The costs of this
uncertaint option were not assessed.
The overall cost curve for HFCs, PFCs and SF6 is shown in Figure 2. The 9 most important
options in the cost curve are specified in Table 1.
900
€ / t CO2 eq
700
500
300
100
-100 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-300
Mt CO2eq
Figure
2
Cost
curve
(HFCs),
2020,
showing
and costs
options.
abatement
per fluorocar bons
potential
(PFCs)
(€/t-CO2)
for
and
the
for
sulphur
Hydrofluorocarbons
hexafluoride
underlying indivi dual
(SF6)
in
abatement
T a b l e 1 N i n e a b a t e m e n t o p t i o n s w it h t h e b ig g e s t i m p a ct
Measure
Abated
emissions
Cumulative
sum of
Reductions1
Specific
abatement
cost
[kt CO2 eq.]
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
Gas insulated switchgear:
Decommissioning infrastructure
1,195
1,195
1.3
Foams XPS: Carbon dioxide
1,900
3,095
9
Foams PU cont./discont. panels:
Hydrocarbons
1,000
4,095
24
Stationary AC: Leakage Reduction
2,056
6,151
27
Commercial Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction
5,639
11,790
32
Industrial Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction
1,301
13,091
72
Transport Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction on Trucks
1,347
14,438
97
Commercial Refrigeration:
Natural Refrigerants
2,207
16,645
117
Mobile AC:
Mandatory system checks
5,215
21,860*
959
* 85% of total identified abatement potential
1
Number given in this column sum up the different reduction potentials per abatement option
III
Table of contents
Executive Summary
1
2
3
4
5
Introduction
i
1
1.1
The SERPEC project, F-gases
1
1.2
Reference case -baselines
2
1.3
Abatement measures
2
1.4
Abatement costs
3
Emission reduction options and costs: HFCs
4
2.1
Emission of HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production
4
2.2
Production and use of foams
6
2.3
Refrigeration and air-conditioning
11
2.4
Emission reduction potential
23
2.5
Cost estimates
24
Emission reduction options and costs: PFCs 27
3.1
Primary aluminium production
27
3.2
Semiconductor manufacture
29
3.3
Other sources
32
Emission reduction options and costs: SF6
33
4.1
Manufacture and use of gas insulated switchgear
33
4.2
Magnesium production and casting
39
4.3
Other sources
41
Conclusions
References
42
47
V
Appendix 1
50
Appendix 2
58
1
1.1
Introduction
The SERPEC project, F-gases
The SERPEC project2
The aim of the project Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials and Economic Costs for
Climate Change (SERPEC) is to identify the potentials and social costs of technical control
options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all European Union sectors and Member
States in 2020 and 2030. The results are presented in so-called marginal abatement cost
curves (MACCs) that provide a least-cost ranking of options across technologies and sectors
in the EU. In general, MACCs provide strategic information for policy makers.
All identified abatement options refer to technologies that are applied already today, or will
become commercially viable in the near future. To identify their abatement potentials we
estimated the maximum feasible implementation rates, often governed by the rate of turnover
of existing technology stocks. Costs of mature technologies were assumed constant over
time, whereas costs of relatively new technologies, e.g. wind turbines, were allowed to
decrease over time due to economies of scale and technology learning.
Fluorinated greenhouse gases
In this SERPEC sectoral report, we determine the potentials and costs of control options of
fluorinated greenhouse gases (F-gases). Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are greenhouse gases with a high Global Warming
Potential (GWP) ranging from 140 (HFC-152a) to 23,9003 (SF6). Due to their high GWP,
emissions of these gases are regulated under the Kyoto-Protocol. In 2005 F-gas emissions in
the EU27 in 2005 were some 70 Mt CO2-eq. and 1.4% of the overall greenhouse gas
emissions in the EU. Main sources of F-gases include refrigeration and air conditioning
equipment (HFCs), aluminium and semiconductor industry (PFCs) and the use of SF6 in
electrical equipment.
This study aims to provide a focused analysis of the main sources and respective abatement
options of emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 within the countries of the European Union.
This report on fluorinated gases of this report has a limited scope. For more detailed insights,
especially into the technical options available, further research into emission mitigation
options and costs is clearly warranted.
2
Intro will be standard in each report
GWPs used for this study are taken from IPCC 1996. They are also given in the Kyoto Protocol and adopted under the
UNFCCC for the national inventories. The latest GWP values are those listed in IPCC AR4 that are somewhat higher.
3
1
1.2
Reference case -baselines
Abatement potentials in this study will be defined relative to a so-called business as usual
(BAU) baseline scenario. Typically, for fossil related CO2 emissions this baseline is a strong
function of the estimated growth of activities like transport or industrial production. In the
case of F-gases, the baseline development is dominated by the estimated future impact of
environmental policies that are already in place. As such, the decreasing emissions in the
baseline determined in this study, see Figure 3, is largely determined by the implementation
of two EU-regulations on fluorinated gasses. Furthermore the baseline assumes that phased
out HCFCs from the refrigeration sector will not be replaced by HFCs4. A more detailed
description of the business as usual baseline is given in the next chapters.
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
Aggregated F-gases
2000
2005
2010
90.0
80.0
70.0
[Mt CO2 eq.]
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1990
1995
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure 3 In dicative em issions development over the period 1990 to 2005 and
business as usual baselines for the 2005 to 2030 period, as derived in
this
study
(baseline
assumptions
do
not
take
into
account
a
full
substitution of remaining HC FCs through HFCs).
1.3
Abatement measures
For each of the F-gas sources, we identified measures to further reduce emissions relative to
the base line shown in Figure 3. Measures refer either to further implementation of
technologies that are already partly included in the baseline, or application of new abatement
4
this assumption was changed in the final phase of the project resulting in a increase of HFC emissions in the baseline, see
chapter 5
2
techniques that are available on the market today. The implementation level of the abatement
measures in 2020 and 2030 was estimated from literature analyses and expert interviews. Our
data assumptions were shared with F-gas experts from different industries. Their responses
are summarized in Appendix 2.
1.4
Abatement costs
The textbox describes the standard costs calculation method that we applied in the SERPEC
project.
The specific costs of measures in € per t CO2-eq abated
Abatement costs of measures are calculated from the sum of annualised investment costs
and annual operating and maintenance costs divided by mean annual emission savings of
the measures:
specific costs =
annualised capital costs + annual O & M
Annual abated CO2 - eq. emissions
Capital costs are annualised over the technical lifetime of the measure using a discount rate
of 4%. This value is similar to government bond rates. The annual operation and
maintenance costs are assumed to remain fixed over the depreciation period.
The costs refer to the extra costs compared to the reference situation. In the case of socalled retrofit measures, the extra costs are the same as the overall costs of the measures,
because the reference is ‘not taking the measure’. In the case of new stock, e.g. a new car or
new production capacity, the extra costs are a case specific estimate (see main text).
The overall costs calculation is also referred to as ‘social costs’. The method allows for
comparison of the ‘bare’ costs of technologies, across measures, sectors and countries. A
negative cost number indicates that from a social perspective there will be a net welfare gain
from taking these measures; a positive cost number indicates a net welfare loss.
Note, that the so-called ‘end-user’ perceives higher energy prices and discount rates. As a
result the cost-curve from an end-users perspective looks different.
3
2
Emission reduction options and costs:
HFCs
Due to the phase out of ozone depleting substances (ODS) like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
under the Montreal Protocol, HFCs became a key substitute in several applications. High
substitution rates by HFCs have been accomplished especially in the refrigeration and air
conditioning sector and for blowing agents for the production of thermal insulation foams.
Although HFCs do not damage the ozone layer like the CFCs that they replace, they are
powerful greenhouse gases and for this reason included into the gases regulated under the
Kyoto Protocol.
In 2006 the European Regulation (EC) 842/2006 on Certain Fluorinated Greenhouse Gases
entered into force. The principal objective of the regulation is to contain the fluids, and take a
number of steps to reduce emissions of the fluorinated gases under the Kyoto Protocol.
2.1
Emission of HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production
In the developing world, new HCFC-22 is still used as a refrigerant in several different
applications, as a blend component in foam blowing. Globally HCFC-22 is used as a
chemical feedstock for manufacturing synthetic polymers. During the manufacture of
chlorodifluormethane (HCFC-22) trifluormethane (HFC-23) is generated as a by-product.
The formation of HFC-23 is dependant upon the process conditions used in the
manufacturing process and varies between 1.5 to 4% of the production of HCFC-22. Within
the EU, emissions of HFC-23 were 65% lower in 2003 than in 1990, mainly due to the
installation of destruction facilities. France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Spain and
UK remained the countries with continuing significant emissions in 2005. There are two
manufacturers of HCFC-22 in the UK, both plants are equipped with a thermal afterburner
(Baggot, 2007), three in Spain whereof one is equipped with a recovery system for further
treatment (Ministerio, 2007), one in the Netherlands (with thermal afterburner installed) and
2 production plants in Germany with thermal afterburner (NIR Germany, 2007). According
to a report by US EPA the last Greek production plant was closed in early 2006 (US EPA,
2006).
4
BAU emission data
If available, HFC-23 emission data have been taken from the national inventory report
submissions to the UNFCCC. German and British data from the production of HCFC-22 are
reported aggregated with other emission sources due to confidentiality reasons. HFC
emissions are here estimated to be 80% of the aggregated data reported to UNFCCC. Italian
data was taken from a recent US EPA report (US EPA, 2006). Table 2 shows reported HFC23 emissions in 2005 and the BAU emission projection until 2030. The BAU emission
projections already include an emission reduction of 50% compared to 2005 by 2015
(IPCC/TEAP, 2005). The decrease in the BAU Scenario is mainly a result of continuous
process optimization, which leads to a decrease of the emission factor from 4% to 2%.
Table 2 BAU HFC-23 emissions from the pr oduction of HCFC-22
Member state
1995
2005
2020
2030
[kt CO2 eq.]
France
3,627
344
172
172
Germany
3,393
413
206
206
608
2,551
0
0
Italy
3,978
140
70
70
The Netherlands
4,914
196
98
98
Spain
3,978
334
167
167
UK
6,084
273
136
136
SUM
26,582
4,249
849
849
Greece
Key Abatement option:
Installation of a thermal afterburner in Spain
Further reduction in emissions, beyond what is technically achievable through process
optimisation, requires additional equipment. Thermal oxidation is an effective treatment in
which the hydro fluorocarbon is incinerated in a furnace fuelled by, for example, natural gas.
Waste gases from this process need to be treated. A recovery of fluoride is possible. The
capital cost for a typical plant of 10,000 t / yr production capacity is €3 million with total
annual operational costs of €200,000 / yr (Harnisch & Hendriks, 2000). There is little or no
information on how the capital cost would change with scale but a facility to destroy a small
amount of HFC-23 is likely to be very similar to one capable of destroying a much larger
amount. This is because the size of the equipment is dictated by the size of the thermal
incinerator which depends on the fuel-gas throughput that, in turn, depends on the maximum
instantaneous rate of non-flammable HFC-23 or other halocarbon fed into it (McCulloch,
2005). As there is only one European HCFC-22 production plant without thermal afterburner
left in Spain, the reduction potential is rather small. Assuming that the technology is 100%
5
efficient and operates for 90% of the on-line time of the HCFC-22 plant a reduction potential
of 90% is achievable through the installation of such a technology at the plant in Spain.
Therefore an emission reduction of annually 133 kt (t means metric tonnes) CO2 eq. can be
achieved. This leads to specific abatement costs of approx. 2 € per t (t means metric tonnes)
abated CO2 eq.
Reduce downtime of thermal afterburners
The current typical downtime for service and maintenance of a thermal afterburner is 10% of
the on-line time an HCFC-22 plant. By minimizing downtime to 5% additional emissions can
be saved. As no information on costs for improved downtime is available, annually €1
million are assumed for the European HCFC-22 plants. By reducing the downtime additional
25 kt CO2 eq. can be saved in 2020. This results in abatement costs of 40 € per t CO2 eq.
Table 3 shows the HFC-23 emission development for the European HCFC-22 production
under the implementation of the above described abatement measures for 2020 and 2030. As
from 2020 on no further process optimization is achievable, the emissions in 2030 are
estimated to be the same as in 2020 not considering any HCFC-22 plant closures.
Table 3 Projected EU-27 HFC-23 emissions in 2020 and 2030, including additional
measures
Member state
2020
2030
[kt CO2 eq.]
France
163
163
Germany
196
196
Greece
0
0
Italy
67
67
The Netherlands
102
102
Spain
33
33
UK
130
130
SUM
691
691
2.2
Production and use of foams
The production of foams became a significant application of hydro fluorocarbons after the
ban of chlorofluorocarbons under the Montreal Protocol. Hydro fluorocarbons are used as
blowing agents in a solidifying matrix of a polymer. The main types of closed cell foams are
extruded polystyrene (XPS) and polyurethane (PU) foams. Emissions of hydro fluorocarbons
occur during the foam manufacturing process, during on-site foam application, while foams
are in use and when foams are discarded.
6
This report gives aggregated emission data and reduction option and costs for the three main
foam applications:
Extruded Polystyrene Foam (XPS)
XPS boardstock foam is a rigid foam with a fine closed-cell structure. It is used mainly for
thermal insulation purposes in buildings. Its primary uses include basement walls, exterior
walls and roofing. Its resistance to water absorption makes it a prime selection for low
temperature applications. The cellular products consist almost entirely of polymer and
blowing agent. In closed-cell insulation foams such as extruded polystyrene, the blowing
agent has not only the function to make the gel foam, but also it contributes to the insulation
value of the foam.
PU One Component Foams (OCF)
PU one-component foams are supplied in pressurized cans. After application the foam
expands at room temperature and cures by reacting with moisture in the air. OCF are used for
insulation around windows and doors, framing around pipes, cable holes, jointing insulating
panels, and certain roof components, both in the do-it-yourself and commercial construction
segment.
The main HFCs used as propellants for OCF are HFC-134a and HFC-152a. Approx. 75% of
the emissions occur immediately if the foam is used. The remaining 25% of the propellant
leaks at latest after one year from the foam.
Other PU Hard Foams
This category includes PU foams for refrigerators and freezers. These PU foams can be
found in various commercial and domestic refrigerators, vending machines, water heaters,
picnic boxes and refrigerated containers. HFC blowing agents are to remain in the PU foam
in order to increase the insulation performance and emissions therefore only occur at disposal
of the foams. Furthermore rigid PU foams are widely used in the construction and transport
sector. In the construction sector PU foams are widely used in so called construction panels,
where a PU foam core is placed between rigid facings.
Total EU-27 HFC emissions of the foam sector are calculated from the national inventory
data reported to the UNFCCC and emissions data given in Ashford et al. (2004). From EU15 countries where emission data from foam blowing is available average per capita
emissions where derived for the EU 15. Applying this factor on population data from
EUROSTAT foam blowing emissions for the EU-15 member states were recalculated.
Ashford et al. give emission estimates from foam blowing for the EU-27 of approx. 5,000 kt
CO2 eq. By means of this data a second per capita emission factor for the EU-27 was derived
and then applied to population data for the 12 new member states. This results into total
estimated HFC emissions from foam blowing of 5,293 kt per CO2 eq.
7
The largest contributors to the overall HFC emissions from foam blowing are XPS
boardstock foams followed by PU-one component foams (OCF). Other PU foams among
others PU appliances, PU blocks, PU continuous / discontinuous panels and integral skin
foams together contribute to another fourth of the overall HFC emissions from foams. Table
4 shows the estimated HFC emissions from foam blowing in 2005.
Table 4 HFC emissions from f oam blowing in 20 05
Extruded polystyrene Foam
PU one Component Foam
(XPS)
Other PU
Total
Hardfoams
[kt CO2 eq.]
2,237
1,713
1,343
5,293
8
2.2.1
Abatement options for extruded polystyrene foam
(XPS)
In 2005 approx. 200,000 tonnes of XPS foams have been applied for insulation applications
in roofs, walls and floors of private and public buildings. There are 23 main XPS production
sites in the European Union (BSEF, 2007). It is assumed that already 50% of XPS foams are
produced with CO2 as the blowing agent (CAN, 2004). Due to the lack of more detailed data
this distribution is assumed for all European countries.
Key abatement options
CO2 as a sole blowing agent or in combination with co-blowing agents (ethanol,
hydrocarbons, water) is the principally used alternative in XPS. This option completely
eliminates emissions of the mostly used HFC-134a, where applied and hence, has a reduction
efficiency of 100%. The market considers the loss in thermal efficiency of 10-15% over
conventional technology, which has to be compensated by increased foam thickness. As a
consequence of conversion product costs are here assumed to be affected through a
production related density penalty of 5% of the foam and a thickness penalty of 10% due to
changes of its insulation performance. It assumes that the thickness of insulation materials
will be increased to arrive at equal thermal insulating properties. This leads to annual extra
costs of €15 million. Assuming a market penetration of 90% in 2020 a large amount of HFC
emissions can be abated. Nevertheless the conversion of remaining production lines still
using HFCs as blowing agents requires additional investment. Estimated Conversion costs
vary from €500,000 to €4,000,000 per business, not taking into account potential cost savings
by replacing expensive HFCs through cheaper CO2 blends (US EPA, 2006) (CAN, 2004). By
realizing the consequent conversion to CO2 blown XPS foam approx. 1,900 kt of CO2 eq. can
be saved in 2020 compared to the BAU scenario at corresponding abatement const of 9 € per
abated CO2 eq.
2.2.2
Abatement options for PU one component foam
One Component Foam using HFCs as propellant is prohibited by Regulation (EC) No
842/2006 from July 2008 on. It is assumed that emissions started to decrease already from
2005 on in the BAU scenario as industry reacted quickly and switched to the use of
hydrocarbons. In 2005 already 85% of the propellants used have been hydrocarbons such as
propane and butane plus dimethyl ether in Europe (UNEP 2006a). As Regulation (EC) No
842/2006 still allows the use of HFCs when required to meet national safety standards
emissions will not turn to zero but will remain marginal in the future. Therefore no further
abatement measures are discussed here, although market for OCF is expected to grow
9
further, due to their ability to meet the growing demand for more and better thermal
insulation. Table 5 shows the estimated BAU emission projections for the EU-27 in 2005,
2020 and 2030.
Table 5 Estimated HFC emissions from PU OCF [kt CO2 eq.]
BAU emissions under
regulation (EC) No
842/2006
2.2.3
2005
2020
2030
1,713
27
0
Abatement options for other PU hardfoams
Rigid polyurethane foams are the dominant insulation used in refrigerators and freezers. The
foam must have adequate compressive and flexural strength to ensure the integrity of the
product under extreme temperature conditions during shipping, as well as heavy loading
during usage of the appliance. It must maintain both its insulation effectiveness and structural
properties throughout the design life of the product. In 2002, 43 European companies
produced about 177 kt of PU foam for refrigeration appliances (ISOPA, 2003).
Another major emission source of rigid PU foams are continuous and discontinuous panels
for the construction and transport sector. These panels have foam cores between rigid
facings. They are mainly used for cold stores, doors and in factories, particularly where
hygienic and controlled environments are required. In 2002, 60 European companies
produced about 560 kt of PU foam for construction panels (ISOPA, 2003).
Key abatement options
For PU appliance foams the key abatement option is the replacement of HFCs through
hydrocarbons. In domestic refrigerators and freezers, cyclopentane was introduced in Europe
in 1993. The technology has been refined and optimized for cost-effectiveness and a blend of
cyclopen-tane/isopentane is gaining prominence. Appliances based on the hydrocarbon
blowing agents like HFC also frequently option attain the highest A+ energy efficiency
category under the EU’s requirements. The technology provides good processing and other
foam characteristics. The safety precautions for processing this flam-able blowing agent are
also well established. Assuming a market penetration for this option of 90% in 2020 most of
the HFC emissions from PU appliances can be abated. Furthermore it is estimated that 25%
of all insulating foams in the polyurethane sector are currently formed with HC blowing
agents (CAN, 2004). Conversion costs per company are estimated to €2 million plus an
increase of production costs of €30 million per year. Conversion costs are taken from
(Harnisch & Hendriks, 2000). This leads to a reduction potential of 242 kt of CO2 eq. at
abatement costs of 146 € per t CO2 eq.
10
In rigid polyurethane insulating foams used for continuous and discontinuous panels, the use
of cyclopentane and various isomers of pentane to replace fluorocarbons has gained wide
acceptance. For building applications, normal pentane is the most widely used isomer. This
option is technically applicable to all emissions from continuous and discontinuous panels.
Assuming that a market penetration of 90% can be reached in 2020 a reduction potential of
1,000 kt of CO2 eq. is achievable. Conversion costs per company are estimated at €0.5
million. Additional costs through increased production cost are €21 million annually. This
leads to abatement costs of 24 € per t abated CO2 equivalent. However as a lot of producers
of continuous and discontinuous panels are small and medium sized companies with a low
throughput of foams, conversion cost are comparatively and might not be achievable for
them.
Table 6 shows the key abatement options for different foam sectors and applications and its
costs.
Table 6 A batement cost estimates for emission reduction options for the 2020
baseline
Foam type
Abatement
Option
Abated
Specific
emissions
abatement cost
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
XPS Boardstock
CO2
1,900
9
PU Cont. Panels
Hydrocarbons
1,000
24
PU Appliances.
Hydrocarbons
242
146
2.3
Refrigeration and air-conditioning
As a consequence of the phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs under the Montreal Protocol HFCs
became the most important substitute refrigerant in the refrigeration and air conditioning
sector. Without complex system modifications HFCs generally offer convenient solutions for
almost all existing refrigeration systems. Because of their high specific global warming
potential and their widespread use in domestic, commercial, transport, industrial refrigeration
as well as mobile and stationary air conditioning, the HFCs make a significant contribution to
global greenhouse gas emissions.
In 2005 emissions from the refrigeration and air conditioning sector are estimated by this
study to have contributed 43.1 million t of CO2 eq to EU-27 overall emissions. The two most
relevant emitters are mobile air conditioning MAC systems (20.9 million t CO2 eq.),
followed by emissions from commercial refrigeration appliances (14.5 million t CO2 eq.).
HFC emissions from transport refrigeration (2.8 million t CO2 eq.), industrial refrigeration
(2.2 million t CO2 eq.) and stationary air conditioning (2.6 million t CO2 eq.) all together
11
contributed further 7.6 million t CO2 eq. Emissions from domestic refrigeration are only
minor source, since a large amount of domestic appliances already uses hydrocarbons,
charges are low and use phase leakage rates are low. Figure 4 shows the contributions from
the main emission sources from refrigeration and air conditioning.
Domestic
2%
Commercial
34%
Mobile AC
46%
Transport
7%
Stationary AC
6%
Industry
5%
Figure 4 C ontributions to 2005 HFC emissions from the different refrigeration and
air con ditioning applications
Table 7 shows detailed emission data of the refrigeration and air conditioning sector for each
member state in 2005. The sources of data for EU-15 member state emissions are the national
inventory submissions to the UNFCCC. However inventory data for the consumption of
halocarbons and SF6 for some EU-15 countries are rather poor. Therefore an average per
capita value of 0.10 kt CO2 eq. was derived for the EU-15 member states. In 2005 HFC
emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning in the EU-15 was then recalculated by
applying the average per capita emission factor to 2005 population data taken from
EUROSTAT.
Except for Poland and Latvia no national inventory data for the consumption of halocarbons
and SF6 for category 2.F are available for new member states. Therefore an average per
capita emission factor, half as high as the EU-15 emission factor, is assumed for new
member states. HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning are assigned to new
member states by multiplying population data from EUROSTAT with an average per capita
emission factor of 0.05 kt CO2 equivalent. The overall HFC emissions from the refrigeration
and air conditioning sector are then distributed to the different subsectors by using an average
sector share derived from (Ashford et al., 2004).
12
Table 7 EU-27 HFC Emissions fr om refri geration and air con ditioning in 2005 [kt
CO2eq.]
Domestic
Refr.
Commercial
Refr.
Transport
Refr.
Industrial
Refr.
Stationary
AC
Mobile
AC
Total
Germany
161.1
2,711.0
523.7
402.8
483.4
3,774.5
8,057
France
123.0
2,069.5
399.7
307.5
369.0
2,881.3
6,150
UK
118.1
1,987.2
383.9
295.3
354.3
2,766.8
5,906
Italy
115.0
1,934.6
373.7
287.5
344.9
2,693.5
5,749
Greece
21.7
365.2
70.5
54.3
65.1
508.5
1,085
Spain
85.7
1,441.1
278.4
214.1
257.0
2,006.4
4,283
Belgium
20.5
345.5
66.7
51.3
61.6
481.0
1,027
Netherlands
31.9
536.3
103.6
79.7
95.6
746.7
1,594
Finland
10.4
174.4
33.7
25.9
31.1
242.8
518
Sweden
17.6
296.1
57.2
44.0
52.8
412.3
880
Denmark
10.6
177.7
34.3
26.4
31.7
247.4
528
Austria
16.2
273.1
52.7
40.6
48.7
380.2
812
Portugal
20.7
348.8
67.4
51.8
62.2
485.6
1,036
Ireland
8.2
138.2
26.7
20.5
24.6
192.4
411
Luxembourg
1.0
16.5
3.2
2.4
2.9
22.9
49
Poland
37.1
624.4
120.6
92.8
111.3
869.3
1,856
Latvia
2.2
37.6
7.3
5.6
6.7
52.3
112
Bulgaria
7.5
125.9
24.3
18.7
22.4
175.2
374
Cyprus
0.8
13.1
2.5
1.9
2.3
18.2
39
Czech Republic
10.0
168.4
32.5
25.0
30.0
234.4
500
Estonia
1.3
21.2
4.1
3.2
3.8
29.6
63
Hungary
9.8
165.1
31.9
24.5
29.4
229.8
491
Lithuania
3.3
55.6
10.7
8.3
9.9
77.4
165
Malta
0.4
6.5
1.3
1.0
1.2
9.1
19
Romania
21.0
353.1
68.2
52.5
63.0
491.5
1,049
Slovakia
5.2
88.3
17.0
13.1
15.7
122.9
262
Slovenia
1.9
32.7
6.3
4.9
5.8
45.5
97
EU-27
862
14,507
2,802
2,156
2,587
20,197
43,110
13
2.3.1
Emission projections for 2020 and 2030
This paragraph shows results on future emission estimates for the refrigeration and air
conditioning sector. In the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) the development of emissions
until 2030 was estimated with regard to policies and measures already in place and the
estimated future economic growth in the EU-27.
Table 8 EU- 27 BAU HFC emission estimates of the refrigerati on and A/ C sector in
2020 and 2030
Domestic
Refr.
Commercial
Refr.
Transport
Refr.
Industrial
Refr.
Stationary
AC
Mobile
AC
Total
2020
1,160
12,892
4,011
2,602
4,592
10,430
35,689
2030
1,415
11,660
4,011
2,968
4,592
0
24,645
The following chapters describe the key abatement options per subsector and the resulting
reduction potential for each subsector.
2.3.2
Domestic refrigeration
The contribution of HFC emissions from domestic refrigerators and freezers in Europe is
with 2% of the entire refrigeration emissions only marginal. In Germany for example
practically all new refrigerators are already equipped with natural refrigerants (Isobutane
(HC-600a)/propane (HC-290)) and the remaining bank of HFC-134a in domestic
refrigeration is assumed to be only 1% of the overall refrigerant bank from domestic
refrigeration (Schwarz & Wartmann, 2005). For other EU-15 member states the situation is
somewhat different as well as HFC-emissions in new member states in the EU-27 might be
higher. A bank share of 60% for domestic refrigerators with hydrocarbons compared to 40%
still running on HFC-134a is assumed (see below), while the share of new refrigerators
coming into the market that are running on hydrocarbons is above 90 % (EUP Lot 13, 2007).
Key abatement option:
Improve Recovery efficiency
As the majority of new produced refrigerators in the EU-27 are running with isobutane (HC600a) or propane (HC-290) main efforts should be put on the improvement of recovery
efficiency for old appliances, which still contain HFC-134a. Improved Refrigerant recovery
to prevent emissions at end-of-life and during service is required especially in new-entrant
member states.
14
According to Article 5 of Directive 2002/96/EC on waste electrical and electronic equipment
(WEEE) member states shall ensure that that all WEEE collected is transported to authorised
treatment facilities. Since the Directive is implemented for some years now, we assume that
sufficient recycling capacity is available to cover Europe’s disposed fridges. However, a vast
amount of old refrigerators and freezers does not arrive at appropriate recycling facilities and
is disposed elsewhere.
Assuming that HFC emissions from domestic refrigeration occur mostly because of
inappropriate disposal of the remaining refrigerators still using HFC-134a, a significant
reduction potential exists. Based on estimated service refrigerant demand data for 2004, still
40% of domestic refrigerators used in the EU-27 are operating with HFC-134a as refrigerant
(RTOC, 2007). New refrigerators on the market however, increasingly contain hydrocarbons
as a refrigerant. This trend is illustrated by European new unit production numbers; in 1996
still 14.4 million of 20.5 million produced units used HFC-134a, in 2004 only 5.2 million of
24.2 million new produced units used HFC-134a (RTOC, 2007). As a result the emission
bank will shift to hydrocarbons in the coming years.
With a typical 20-year lifespan, each year 5% of refrigerators will be retired and disposed.
This results in approx. 10 million refrigerators that have to be disposed every year. We
further assumed that from 2013 on no new refrigerators using FHC-134a are produced in the
European Union, which leads to a decreasing base of HFC-134a refrigerators.
By improving the collection of discarded refrigerators and freezers this leads to an emission
reduction of 80% until 2020, if all refrigerators are recycled properly (928 kt CO2-eq.). Costs
for the appropriate recycling are considered at €15 per refrigerator (ZVEI, 2006).This leads
to relatively high abatement costs of 162 € per tonne abated CO2 eq. in 2020 and 124 € per
tonne abated CO2 eq. in 2030.
15
2.3.3
Commerci al refrigerati on
Commercial refrigeration is the sector with the second largest refrigerant emissions.
Emissions occur due to leakages at the fittings and valves of the often complex piping
systems, during maintenance and as a consequence of external and internal disruptions of the
containment but also during installation and disposal of the systems.
Commercial refrigeration is composed of three main categories of equipment: stand-alone
equipment, condensing units, and centralised systems. Stand-alone equipment consists of
systems where all the components are integrated.
Condensing units, comprising the second group of commercial refrigeration equipment, are
composed of one (or two) compressor(s), one condenser, and one receiver assembled into the
condensing unit which is located external to sales area. The cooling equipment consists of
one or more display case(s) in the sales area and/or a small cold room. Condensing units are
typically installed in specialty shops such as bakeries, butcher shops, and convenience stores.
In a number of small supermarkets, one can find a large number (up to 20) of condensing
units installed side-by-side in a single machinery room.
Centralised systems employ racks of compressors installed in a machinery room. A number
of possible designs exist. Two main design options are used: direct and indirect systems.
Following CFC phase out for new equipment and servicing in Europe, commercial
refrigeration systems tended towards the use of HCFC-22 and HCFC blends. Since 2000,
European Regulation 2037/2000 has prohibited HCFCs in all type of new refrigerating
equipment. As a result, HFC-404A, HFC-507A and HFC-134a are now the most commonly
used refrigerants for larger capacity low- and medium-temperature systems, such as
condensing units and all types of centralized systems. For stand-alone systems, HFC- 134a is
used for medium-temperature applications, while both HFC-134a and HFC-404A are used
for low-temperature applications.
Even though the phase-out of HCFCs in existing equipment is still ongoing, total European
HFC emissions from commercial refrigeration are estimated to amount to already 14.5
million tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2005. This is a share of 34% of the overall HFC emissions
from the refrigeration and air conditioning sector.
16
Key abatement options:
Leakage Reduction
The measures implied through the European Regulation (EC) No 842/2006 “on certain
fluorinated greenhouse gases, focus on emission reductions through avoidance of leakages by
improved maintenance”. This so called F-Gas Regulation requires at least annual inspections
for installations with over 3kg of refrigerant charge, inspections at least twice a year for
installations with over 30kg of charge and quarterly inspections as well as the installation of
a refrigerant leak detector are required for systems over 300kg. The inspections are to be
carried out only by specially trained and certified maintenance personnel. Additionally logbooks are required to register detected leakages, refilled refrigerant quantity as well as endof-life recovery, recycling or destruction of the refrigerant (Regulation (EC) No 842/2006).
The BAU emission estimates already imply reduced emissions through the F-Gas regulation.
However, a recent study regarding emissions of commercial refrigeration systems in
Germany showed, that emission under the F-Gas regulation are still high (approx. 3 million t
CO2 equivalent in Germany) (Rhiemeier et al. 2008). Further reductions can be achieved
through improved containment measures such as more regular leakage checks and improved
system design.
Depending on the amount of filled refrigerant and the system size, additional annual costs for
containment through improved maintenance are estimated to €1,000-3,000 per installation.
The reduction potential in 2020 is estimated at 45% emission reduction, in 2030 at 40%
(4,406 kt CO2 eq.).
Natural refrigerants
In recent years systems using hydrocarbons, ammonia and CO2 of different refrigerating
capacities have been installed in various European countries. In most standard situations,
these so called natural refrigerants provide an environmentally friendly solution and meet
nearly all requirements for commercial refrigeration systems. Although there is already a
wide range of technologies available to substitute HFCs in commercial refrigeration, these
are not yet standard in commercial refrigeration and investment costs are still rather high. But
investment cost as well as annual operation costs might decrease in the coming years due to
increasing acceptance by stakeholders and end-users. The effect of increases or decreases of
the energy consumption on CO2 emissions have been estimated but not been included into
the cost estimates.
Depending on the size and refrigerant capacity, additional investment costs for new systems
using natural refrigerants vary between €15,000 for systems used in a typical discount
markets and €150,000 for complex central multiplex systems used in super- or hypermarkets
(Rhiemeier et. al., 2008).
Annually mean replacement quota of commercial refrigeration systems is 8% of the installed
base (Rhiemeier et. al, 2008). Assuming that from 2010 on 50% of new installed systems are
running with natural refrigerants and from 2020 on all new installed systems are only
17
operating with natural refrigerants, a reduction potential of 30% compared to the BAU
emissions is estimated for 2020 and approximately 70% by 2030 (2,207 kt CO2-eq.… and
5,061 kt CO2-eq. respectively).
2.3.4
Transport refrigeration
Transport Refrigeration includes transport of chilled or frozen products by reefer ships,
intermodal refrigerated containers, refrigerated railcars and road transport including trailers,
diesel trucks and small trucks and vans. It also includes use of refrigeration and air
conditioning on merchant ships. Approximately 3% of European road transport is
refrigerated. The European refrigerated road transport fleet consists of approx. 650.000
refrigerated vehicles. The refrigerant bank for road transport in Europe consists of 3,100 t of
HFCs. Leakage rates are 25% on average, which means that up to 775 t of HFC refrigerant
per annum are being emitted by refrigerated road transport in Europe (UNEP, 2006b).This
results in GWP weighted emissions of annually 2.3 million t of CO2 equivalent from
refrigerated road transport.
According to a recent study by Schwarz & Rhiemeier (2007), the EU-27 transport emissions
of the maritime and railway sector accounted 447.0 kt of CO2 equivalent in 2006. In total the
HFC emissions from refrigerated transport add up to 2.8 million t of CO2 equivalent or 7% of
the overall HFC emissions from the refrigeration and air conditioning sector in 2010.
Key abatement options:
Road Transport - Leakage Reduction
All transport refrigeration systems have to be compact, lightweight and robust to withstand
movement and acceleration during transportation. Despite these efforts, leaks within the
refrigeration system occur because of vibrations, sudden shocks etc. Transport refrigeration
systems are only covered to a very small extent by Regulation (EC) No 842/2006 ( Art 4(3),
Art 7) and further measures to improve leak tightness have to be compiled. An alternative
approach to improving systems to reduce leaks might be to improve operating conditions to
reduce wear, likeliness of ruptures and refrigerant losses during service.
Regularly system checks can detect possible leaks early and reduce emissions of transport
cooling systems for truck transport. To achieve that, mandatory system checks should be
implemented at least on an annually basis. We assumed that halving the current emission
factor of 25% is achievable, which would lead to a reduction of 50%. Costs for a thorough
system check are assumed to be at €50 per vehicle, assuming an average hourly service rate
of €50. This leads to abatement costs of 32 € per tonne abated CO2 eq. in 2020 and 2030.
18
Maritime Transport – Leakage Reduction
From a technical point of view, leakage rates could substantially be lowered, even in the
rough environment of sea borne transport, if the maintenance of air conditioning/refrigeration
equipment would only meet elementary requirements, and if at least one of the crewmembers
would be trained in basic techniques. Today, however, trained people on board of merchant
ships are rare. Regular inspections by external service experts and the use of leakage
detectors, which are increasingly used, have not spread throughout the merchant fleets yet.
With these additional measures a reduction potential of 40% can be achieved for HFC
emissions from the refrigerated sea transport. This corresponds to a reduction potential of
12% compared to the 2020 and 2030 overall HFC emissions from the refrigerated transport
sector. Annual extra costs are estimated to €20 million. This results in estimated abatement
costs of 40 € per t abated CO2 eq. in 2020 and 2030.
2.3.5
Industrial refrigeration
Main industrial refrigeration applications are food processing, cold storage, process
refrigeration, liquefaction of gases and industrial heat pumps and heat recovery. Most of the
industrial refrigerating systems in industrial refrigeration use the vapour compression cycle.
The main refrigerant in this sector, and with an increased share, is ammonia. In addition,
HFCs –that replace CFCs and HCFCs- are applied. In these systems annual average leakage
rates of typically 8-10% are reported (UNEP, 2006b). Based on the sector share estimates
from above, HFC emissions from industrial refrigeration systems have contributed 5% or
approximately 2.2 million t CO2 equivalent to the 2005 overall emissions of the refrigeration
and air-conditioning sector in the EU-27.
Key abatement options:
Leakage Reduction
Industrial Refrigeration systems are also covered by Regulation (EC) 842/2006. As industrial
appliances generally require high refrigerant loads above 300kg, they have to be equipped
with leak detectors and operators are obliged to carry out quarterly service inspections. We
assume a reduction potential of 50% that can be achieved through further containment
measures. Additional measures could include the design of more leak tight systems, monthly
system inspections and improved recycling efficiency. In absence of more recent cost data
estimates for this application class were taken from Harnisch & Hendriks (2000).
Natural Refrigerants - Ammonia (R717) and Carbon dioxide (CO2)
R-717 has been used as a refrigerant for industrial processes since 1872 and is the preferred
choice for large installations in most parts of the world.
19
CO2 systems can be used for industrial refrigeration applications with evaporation
temperatures down to –52°C and condensing temperatures up to 5°C. CO2 is also
increasingly being used in the low stage of cascade systems for industrial refrigeration. CO2
is also commonly used as a secondary refrigerant. The design requires the same pressure of
25 bar for the secondary refrigerant systems and for the CO2 used as the refrigerant, except
for ice rinks and some other limited systems which are designed for 40 bar (IPCC/TEAP,
2005).
Through an increased use of natural refrigerants in industrial refrigeration systems a
decoupling of the emissions from of the annual growth in the industrial refrigeration sector is
estimated. Assuming that in 2010 25%, in 2020 50% and in 2030 80% of all new systems
installed are running on natural refrigerants a reduction potential of 7% compared to 2020
BAU emissions and 15% compared to 2030 emissions is estimated. Abatement cost estimates
were taken from Amann et al. (2008). They amount to 34 € per tonne abated CO2 eq. in 2020
and 2030.
2.3.6
Stationary air conditioning
The vast majority of air conditioners use the vapour-compression cycle technology, and
generally fall into four distinct categories:
•
•
•
•
window-mounted, portable and through-the-wall air conditioners;
non-ducted or duct-free split residential and commercial air conditioners;
ducted residential split and single package air conditioners;
ducted commercial split and packaged air conditioners.
Main refrigerants used are HFC-407C, R134a and R410. Emissions occur during installation,
operating time and at system disposal. Stationary air conditioning emissions are estimated to
contribute 6% or approximately 2.6 million t CO2 equivalent to the 2005 overall emissions of
the refrigeration and air-conditioning sector in EU-27. Under the BAU scenario emissions
from stationary air conditioning are estimated to increase until 2020 to 4.6 million t CO2 eq.
and than remain constant until 2030 (see Table 8).
20
Key abatement options:
Leakage Reduction
Unlike non-ducted and ducted split air conditioners, window-mounted, portable and throughthe-wall air conditioners are mostly not covered by containment measures of Regulation (EC)
842/2006 due to small refrigerant loads and factory-sealed refrigerant cycles.
For air conditioners working on the vapour-compression cycle, there are several practical
ways to promote refrigerant conservation and to reduce refrigerant emissions such as:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Improved design and installation of systems to reduce leakage and consequently
increase refrigerant containment,
Design to minimize refrigerant charge quantities in systems,
Adoption of best practices for installation, maintenance and repairing of equipment,
including leak detection and repair,
Refrigerant recovery during servicing,
Recycling and reclaiming of recovered refrigerant and
Refrigerant recovery at equipment decommissioning.
Through strict application of further containment measures an improved refrigerant recovery
at equipment decommissioning of 30% is estimated until 2020 in EU-15 member states..
Additionally the quantity of filled refrigerant can be reduced by 20% until 2020. For the new
entrant member states refrigerant recovery efficiency could improve by 50% until 2020
compared to the BAU scenario.
Overall, this leads to a reduction potential of 44% compared with BAU emissions in 2020
and 52% compared with BAU emissions in 2030 (1,301 kt CO2 eq. and 1,484 kt CO2 eq).
Abatement costs per t CO2 eq. lay at €72 in 2020 and at €63. Costs for the implementation of
further containment measures are based on abatement costs given in the Special Report on
Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (IPCC/TEAP, 2005).
2.3.7
Mobile air conditioning
Mobile air conditioning (MAC) is one of the major sources of fluorocarbon emissions due to
rather large specific leakage rates and wide-spread application. Air conditioners in new cars
are generally filled with HFC-134a since about 1993. Mobile air conditioning emissions
are estimated to have contributed 47% or approximately 20 million t CO2 equivalent to the
2005 overall emissions of the refrigeration and air-conditioning sector in Europe.
The European Union in 2006 issued Directive 2006/40/EC relating to emissions from airconditioning systems in motor vehicles. This MAC directive bans the use of air-conditioning
21
systems containing refrigerants with a global warming potential (GWP) higher than 150. The
date of entry into force of the Directive is 2011 for new car models and 2017 for all new cars.
The Directive states that alternatives to HFC-134a are expected to be available in the near
future (Directive 2006/40/EC). BAU emissions projections in this study include the impact of
the MAC Directive from 2011 onwards. This is why emissions are estimated to decrease
from 2011 on to a level of approx. 10.4 million t CO2 eq. until 2020. As a result of the MAC
Directive it is further estimated that emissions from mobile air conditioning will no longer
play a roll in 2030 (see Table 8).
The German Automotive Industry Association (VDA) has recently chosen CO2 (R744) as the
replacement to the current refrigerant, HFC 134a, in mobile air conditioning.
Key Abatement Options
Mandatory leakage checks for MAC systems still using HFC-134a
Since low GWP refrigerants will only be mandatory from 2011, there is still a large amount
of banked HFC-134a in Europe’s passenger vehicle fleet. Average annual emission rate of
MAC systems is approx. 8%, which leads to large refrigerant losses after 5-7 years of at least
50% of the initial refrigerant charge (Schwarz, 2001). With a refrigerant charge less than
50% of the initial amount, MAC systems are not working properly any more and have to be
maintained by special service personnel. This leads Europe-wide to approximately 13 million
air conditioned cars that have to be repaired each year.
To minimize annual refrigerant losses and avoid system failures mandatory system
inspections would be required at least every two years. During these inspections potential
leakages could be identified and prevented in an early stage. The inspections could be
combined with the normal vehicle inspections to reduce costs.
The costs of such inspections would be rather high: Currently approx. 97 million air
conditioned cars are running in the EU-27 (Eurostat, 2006; IPCC/TEAP, 2005; own
calculations). Assuming biennial system checks, almost 50 million cars would have to be
inspected Europe-wide each year. Assuming extra costs of 100 € per system check (assuming
a mix of dedicated additional and supplementary activities in conjunction to existing
inspections), annual extra cost of €5 billion have to be spent annually. The reduction
potential is estimated to 50% (5,215 kt CO2 eq.). This results in abatement costs of 958 € per
t abated CO2 eq. in 2020.
22
2.4
E mi ssi on reduction potenti al
This paragraph summarizes the emission reduction potential compared to the BAU scenario
of the measures mentioned above. Table 9 shows the BAU emission projections for the
different refrigeration and air conditioning subsectors.
Table 9 BAU HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning in 2005, 2020
and 2030
2005
2020
2030
[kt CO2 eq.]
Domestic Refr.
862
1,160
1,415
Commercial Refr.
14,507
12,892
11,660
Transport Refr.
2,802
4,011
4,011
Industrial Refr.
2,156
2,602
2,968
Stationary A/C
2,587
4,592
4,592
Mobile A/C
20,197
10,430
0
Sum
43,110
35,689
24,645
The different abatement options for the refrigeration and air conditioning sector show a
significant reduction potential for several sub-sectors. Table 10 summarizes the Reduction
potential of each measure.
Table 10 Emissions reduction potential per abatement option
Measures:
2020
2030
I. Mobile AC - Mandatory system checks
50%
-
II. Stationary AC – Leakage Reduction
45%
52%
IIIa. Commercial Refrigeration - Leakage Reduction
44%
38%
IIIb. Commercial Refrigeration - Natural Refrigerants
30%
70%
IVa. Transport Refrigeration - Leakage Reduction on Ships
37%
37%
IVb. Transport Refrigeration - Leakage Reduction on Trucks
50%
50%
Va. Industrial Refrigeration - Natural Refrigerants.
7%
15%
Vb. Industrial Refrigeration - Leakage Reduction
50%
50%
VI. Domestic Refrigeration - Improve recycling efficiency
80%
86%
Figure 5 illustrates the emission development in 2020 and 2030 with implementation of all
reduction measures compared to the BAU scenario.
23
2030
Unabated Emissios under
BAU Scenario
Additional measures
2020
Unabated Emissios under
BAU Scenario
Additional measures
2005
2005 Baseline
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
[kt CO2 eq.]
Figure
5
BAU
emission s
deployment
from re f ri geration
and A/C
compared t o
emission deployment with additional reduction measures
2.5
Cost estimates
This paragraph reports the results of the abatement cost assessment. The emission reductions
are calculated on an annual basis. All cost data of this report are calculated as 2005 Euros.
Abatement costs were calculated from the sum of annualised investment costs and annual
operating and maintenance costs divided by mean annual emission savings. Investment costs
were annualized over their lifetime with a discount rate of 4%. Table 11 and Table 12 show
the estimated abatement costs per reduction option and the achievable emission reduction
per reduction measure.
Figure 6and Figure 7 display the respective cost-abatement curve of emission reduction
units in 2020 and 2030. A least cost policy would attempt to start with low cost options
and continue up to certain maximum threshold value. As a result in 2020 approx. 10
million t CO2 eq. can be abated at abatement costs under 100 € per t CO2 eq. In 2030 the
abatement potential at costs under €100 is estimated to approx. 15 million t CO2 eq.
24
Table 11 Abatement cost estimates for emission reduction options for the 2020
baseline
Cumulative
Measure
Abated emissions
sum of
Reductions
Specific abatement
cost
[kt CO2 eq.]
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
II. Stat. AC – Leakage Reduction
2,056
2,056
27
IIIa. COM - Leakage Reduction
5,639
7,695
32
174
7,869
34
481
8,350
40
1,301
9,651
72
1,347
10,998
97
2,207
13,205
117
928
14,133
162
5,215
19,348
959
Va. Industry Natural Refrigerants.
IVa. TRANS Leakage Reduction on
Ships
Vb. Industry - Leakage Reduction
IVb. TRANS Leakage Reduction on
Trucks
IIIb. COM - Natural Refrigerants
VI. Domestic – Improve recycling
efficiency
I. MAC - Mandatory system checks
Table 12 Abatement cost estimates for emission reduction options for the 2030
baseline
Cumulative
Measure
Abated emissions
sum of
Reductions
Specific abatement
cost
[kt CO2 eq.]
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
II. Stat. AC – Leakage Reduction
2,369
2,369
24
IIIa. COM - Leakage Reduction
4,406
6,775
32
441
7,216
34
481
7,697
40
5,061
12,758
51
1,484
14,242
63
1,347
15,589
97
1,210
16,799
124
-
-
-
Va. Industry Natural Refrigerants.
IVa. TRANS Leakage Reduction on
Ships
Vb. Industry - Leakage Reduction
IVb. TRANS Leakage Reduction on
Trucks
IIIb. COM - Natural Refrigerants
VI. Domestic – Improve recycling
efficiency
I. MAC - Mandatory system checks
25
Cost Curve for Reduction Options in the Refrigeration & Air conditioning sector of the
EU-27 in 2020
1,000
Abatement Cost 2020
Abatement cost estimates [€/t CO2 eq.]
900
I. MAC - Mandatory system
checks
II. Stat. AC – Leakage
Reduction
IIIa. COM - Leakage
Reduction
IIIb. COM - Natural
Refrigerants
IVa. TRANS Leakage
Reduction on Ships
IVb. TRANS Leakage
Reduction on Trucks
Va. Industry Natural
Refrigerants.
Vb. Industry - Leakage
Reduction
VI. Domestic – Improve
recycling efficiency
I.
800
700
600
500
400
300
VI.
200
Va.
IVa.
IIIb.
100
II.
Vb.
IIIa.
IVb.
0
0
2,500
5,000
7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500
Emission Reduction [kt CO2 eq.]
Figure 6 Emission reduction cost curve in 2020
Cost Curve for Reduction Options in the Refrigeration & Air conditioning sector of the
EU-27 in 2030
Abatement cost estimates [€/t CO2 eq.]
300
Abatement Cost 2030
I. MAC - Mandatory system
checks
II. Stat. AC – Leakage
Reduction
IIIa. COM - Leakage
Reduction
IIIb. COM - Natural
Refrigerants
IVa. TRANS Leakage
Reduction on Ships
IVb. TRANS Leakage
Reduction on Trucks
Va. Industry Natural
Refrigerants.
Vb. Industry - Leakage
Reduction
VI. Domestic – Improve
recycling efficiency
200
VI.
IVa.
100
Va.
Vb.
IIIb.
IIIa.
II.
IVb.
0
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
Emission Reduction [kt CO2 eq.]
Figure 7 Emission reduction cost curve in 2030
26
3
Emission reduction options and costs:
PFCs
The group of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) comprises a number of substances including CF4,
C2F6, C3F8 and c-C4F8. Emissions arise from a range of sources including the production of
aluminium and semiconductors.
3.1
Pri mary aluminium production
Emissions of perfluorocarbons from primary aluminium productions occur during “anode
effects" that occur when the alumina concentration in the cryolite bath is reduced. The carbon
anode then reacts directly with the fluoride in the electrolyte. Measures to reduce the
frequency and duration of anode effects not only reduce PFC emissions but also benefit the
producer by improving energy and process efficiency.
Particularly for financial reasons the aluminium industry made big efforts of reducing the
anode effect and phasing out older inefficient technologies in the recent past. Appendix 1
(Table 20) shows the number of aluminium smelters and their applied technology type in the
EU-27 (EU-15) countries in 1990 and 2005. From Table 20 becomes also apparent that in
2005 most of the operating smelters in the EU-27 used the Point Feed Prebake (PFPB)
Technology, which has the lowest emissions per ton of produced aluminium. In addition a lot
of older inefficient smelters closed between 1990 and 2005.
The overall emission reductions achieved by the European aluminium industry are illustrated
in Figure 8. In the past 15 years the industry achieved a reduction by more than 80%.
27
16,000
14,000
[kt CO2 eq.]
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
19
99
19
98
19
97
19
96
19
95
19
94
19
93
19
92
19
91
19
90
0
Figure 8 1990-2005 PFC emissions fr om aluminium pr oduction in the EU-15
5
It is not expected that new smelters will be constructed in the baseline scenario. More likely
older smelters will be de-commissioned. For the baseline scenario it is assumed that
production numbers and emissions remain constant.
5
Annual national GHG inventory submissions to the UNFCCC secretariat of 2007
28
Key Abatement Options
Switch in technology
Future efforts in the European aluminium industry have to focus on conversion of the still
existing less efficient smelters using SWPB and VSS technology. To take into account
economic gains from higher energy efficiency and reduced labour costs from retrofitting and
conversion default cost reductions of 75 € per t aluminium were applied for SWPB.
According to information provided by the European Aluminium Association no significant
gain in operating costs can be expected from conversion from VSS to PFPB.
By conversion of the last European smelters that are still using SWPB and VSS technology a
total PFC emission reduction of 661 kt CO2 eq. can be achieved. The reduction potential is
based on the assumption, that through conversion to PFBS technology emissions of plants
that are still using VSS technology decrease by the factor 10 and emissions from plants with
SWPB technology decrease by the factor 27 (see emissions factors in Table 20). Assuming
conversion costs of 500 € per t aluminium (production capacity) for the conversion from
SWPB to SFPB and €100 for the conversion from VSS to PFPB total invest cost of approx.
€216 million occur (Harnisch & Hendriks, 2000). This leads to specific abatement cost of
6.50 € per t abated CO2 eq. for the conversion of the remaining smelters using VSS
technology and 109 € per t abated CO2 eq. for the conversion of smelters that still apply
SWPB technology. Table 13 shows the abatement potential and its respective cost for the
European Aluminium industry.
Table 13 Emissions reduction options and cost f or the 2020 baseline
Measure
Specific abatement
Abated
emissions
6
cost
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
Conversion: VSS to PFBS
514
6.5
Conversion: SWPB to PFBS
147
109
3.2
Semiconductor manufacture
European semiconductor industry contributed in 2003 2,090 kt CO2 equivalents to the overall
European GHG emissions (ESIA, 2006). At an average growth rate of annually 2% for the
European semiconductor industry emissions in 2005 added up to 2,174 kt of CO2 eq. In the
6
Own calculation based on the assumptions that remaining plants using VSS and SWPB technology in Spain, the Netherlands,
Sweden, Poland and Slovenia change over to PFPS technology.
29
baseline scenario a growth path at rate of 2% / yr is estimated (SIA, 2008)7. The World
Semiconductor Council, which comprises most large semiconductor manufacturers, has
agreed in a voluntary agreement to reduce its absolute global emissions of PFCs in 2010
by 10% relative to the 1995 baseline. This agreement was included into the baseline
projection of this study as in 2005 already significant efforts have been made by the
industry.
To produce semiconductor devices, the semiconductor industry requires gaseous fluorinated
compounds, silanes, doping and other inorganic gases. The PFCs used in semiconductor
manufacturing process are: hexafluoroethane (C2F6), octofluoropropane (C3F8),
tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and octofluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8). Essentially, these gases are
used in a number of different process steps:
1. PFCs are used as etching gases for plasma etching. The gases etch the submicron patterns
on metal and dielectric layers of advanced integrated circuits.
2. The fluorinated compounds are also used to accurately perform a rapid chemical cleaning
of Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) tool chambers. When the silicon and silicon
based dielectric layers are being applied, a deposit remains in the CVD chamber. To
ensure that the wafers do not become contaminated by these deposits, the chambers are
cleaned at defined intervals, avoiding frequent mechanical wet cleanings.
7
Average annual growth until 2030 is estimated at only 2% because of the cyclical semiconductor market. For the mid term
until 2030 high rates of 10% or higher are therefore expected only in some years, while in other years growth is very small,
which leads to an estimated average growth of 2% annually.
30
Key abatement options
CVD Chamber Clean
Process optimization continues to focus primarily on CVD chamber cleans because they have
historically been the largest source of PFC emissions. The PFC gases used in CVD chamber
cleans include C2F6 and CF4. CVD Chamber cleaning emissions are reported to constitute
80% of all semiconductor emissions (US EPA, 2006). Replacement of the original process
with a new and lower emitting process, is a technology area which has undergone significant
development in recent years. The industry has developed NF38 remote plasma clean
technologies to replace in-situ C2F6 and CF4 chamber cleans. The process is assumed to be
applicable to all fabrication facilities. When compared to the original carbon based PFC
chamber cleans that they replace, retrofitted remote cleans result in 95% PFC emissions
reduction (ESIA, 2006) (US EPA, 2006). Assuming a maximum market penetration of 93%
for this option in 2020, a maximum abatement of 1,537 kt of CO2 eq. is achievable compared
to the baseline scenario.
Facilities moving to an NF3 Remote Clean system are assumed to face a purchase and
installation capital cost of approx €50,000 per chamber. Additional net annual costs are
assumed to total approx. €12,000 per chamber (US EPA, 2006). There is currently no
information about the total amount of etch chambers in Europe available. The calculation of
specific abatement costs per tonne abated CO2 eq. is therefore not possible.
Point-of-use plasma Abatement
The Point-of-use plasma abatement is used to abate emissions from the plasma etching
process and is assumed to be applicable to all fabrication facilities. Plasma etching emissions
constitute 20% of all semiconductor emissions. The system uses a small plasma source that
effectively dissociates the PFC molecules that react with fragments of the additive gas—H2,
O2, H2O, or CH4—in order to produce low-molecular-weight by-products such as HF with
little or no GWP. After disassociation, wet scrubbers can remove the molecules. It is
estimated that emissions reduction efficiency of this option is 95% (US EPA, 2006). It is
assumed that plasma abatement technology requires capital costs of approx. 30,000 € per
etching chamber, which covers the purchase and installation of the system. Additionally
occur approx. further €800 operational expense per etch chamber (US EPA, 2006). There is
currently no information available on the total amount of etch chambers in Europe. Assuming
a maximum market penetration of 35% for this option in 2020, a maximum abatement of 152
kt of CO2 eq. is achievable compared to the baseline scenario.
The calculation of specific abatement costs per t abated CO2 eq. is therefore not possible.
8
New research shows that NF3 is also a very potent greenhouse gas (GWP=17200) and will most likely be covered by a post2012 agreement: http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2085
31
3.3
Other sources
PFCs are also used in as solvents in electronics applications and as minor compounds in
foam blowing agents and refrigerant mixtures. Manufacturing and distribution losses
occur just as described for HFCs and SF6. New applications have emerged in the medical
field and in cosmetics. In military first aid PFCs are used as artificial blood. Also certain
military radar-systems sometimes require a filling with PFCs. The quantification of these
miscellaneous emission sources requires further investigation. Based on the estimates by
(Harnisch & Hendriks, 2000) we assume that gross emissions of 500 t / yr occur in 2010
and remain stable until 2030.
Abatement options:
No abatement options for this group of sources were identified. More reliable
quantitative information on the source of these emissions and their abatement are clearly
needed.
32
4
4.1
E m i s s i o n r ed u c t i o n o p t i o n s a n d c o s t s : S F 6
Manufacture and use of gas insulated switchgear
SF6 has unique, and currently irreplaceable, properties that allow the optimized operation of
electrical switchgear and electricity networks. Electric equipment based on SF6-technology is
used in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity all over the world. The
substance SF6 possesses a unique combination of properties such as non-toxicity, non-ozonedepletion, non-flammability and outstanding electrical properties.
In the EU-15 the contribution of SF6 from electrical equipment amounted to 0.05 % of the
total greenhouse gas emissions in 2002. Since 1995, voluntary actions by the European
electricity industry have resulted in a reduction of 40% of SF6 emissions. Most of the
potential for emission reductions has already been realized. However there remains scope for
further reductions (Wartmann & Harnisch, 2005).
In 2005 the SF6 emissions from the manufacture and use of gas insulated switchgear in the
EU-27 added up to 2.7 million t of CO2 eq. The business as usual scenario describes the
development of emissions for the case that no further reduction action takes place after 2005.
Thus, reduction options already implemented in 2005 remain in place, but no additional
action is taken. As a consequence, emissions slightly increase around 10% in 2010 and
2020 compared to 2003 due to a strong bank growth. For the EU-15 member states
emission data for 2005 is taken from the national inventory reports submitted to the
UNFCCC, except for UK and Ireland, Greece and the Netherlands. These countries reported
only aggregated SF6 emissions from various sources. In this case emissions were calculated
using the emission percentage of the German submission from switchgear emissions relative
to the total submitted SF6 emissions. New member states do not report SF6 emissions. We
estimated their SF6 emissions by means of countries’ share in the European gross domestic
product for 2005. Figure 9 shows the emission projections from 1995 until 2030 under the
BAU scenario.
33
SF6 BAU Emissions
5
[Mt CO2 eq.]
4
3
2
1
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure 9 SF6 Emissions Projecti ons from gas insul ated switchgear 1995-2030
Key Abatement Options
Key abatement options include enhanced tightness by design, gas recovery and re-use as well
as training of personnel handling SF6. The electricity industry has managed the growing
population of SF6 equipment in the EU-27 in order to reduce annual emissions from 4.8
million t of CO2 equivalent to 2.7 million t in 2005 – delivering a reduction of nearly 40% in
less than ten years. While the action already taken covers most of the potential reduction
measures, full coverage of these measures throughout the electrical industry in the EU-27 has
not yet been achieved (Wartmann & Harnisch, 2005).
In the next section, selected abatement measures are described regarding their technical
characteristics, reduction potential and costs, as described in the study “Reductions of SF6
emissions from high and medium voltage electrical equipment in Europe” by Wartmann and
Harnisch in 2005. Table 14 gives an overview of the assessed reduction options.
34
Table 14 Reduction options f or different Life Cycle Phases
No.
Measure
Life-Cycle-Phase
Ia.
Awareness Manufacture – Training, Monitoring
Manufacture
Ib.
Awareness Use-Phase – Training, Monitoring, Labelling
Use-Phase
II.
Centralized Supply System
Manufacture
III.
Improved Filling Procedure
Manufacture
Iva.
Evacuation Manufacture
Manufacture
IVb
Evacuation Use-phase
Use-Phase
V
Leakage detection with helium
Manufacture
VI
Repair and Replacement
Use-Phase
VII
Decommissioning infrastructure
Decommissioning
I. Awareness
Several measures are aggregated under “awareness”. This includes all measures increasing
the awareness of staff involved in gas handling, e.g. training, monitoring and labelling.
Ia. Manufacturing:
Training
Integration of handling guide into standard training program
Monitoring
Various possibilities for internal monitoring exist. Here a very precise technical
implementation is assumed, which allows the determination of gas amounts with high
accuracy and for single production steps: a centralized SF6 supply system is combined with
installation flow meters at the single workstations. Investment costs for the flow metering
system are assumed to be €30,000, operational costs €5,000 p.a. regarding operational costs,
a yearly effort of 2 days for data evaluation, internal reporting, etc. is assumed.
35
Ib. Use phase:
Training
It is assumed that the staff dealing with topping-up or maintenance including gas-handling of
closed pressure equipment are trained one off for a day for the specific types of equipment to
be handled. Training takes place when new types of electrical equipment are introduced.
Monitoring
Due to the large number of applications spread over considerable areas, a mass-balance
concept at the level of transmission operators seems most feasible. This approach is already
practiced by the majority of the utilities today. It is assumed that this does not require any
investment but leads to additional working time of two days per 50 t closed pressure SF6
bank.
Labelling
Marginal additional costs of 0.2% of the sales price of equipment for labelling
implementation are assumed to occur.
II. Centralized supply system in manufacture
Gas is stored centrally and distributed to the working-stations. Investment costs of 100,000 €
per site, but also operational costs (for maintenance of pipes) of 15,000 € per site and year
occur.
III. Improved filling procedures in manufacture
The filling process is changed in order to prevent amounts of gas remaining in the filling tube
from being released when the tube is disconnected. This can be achieved through several
approaches having comparable investment costs (assumed investment costs per site:
€60,000).
36
IV. Evacuation to lower pressures
This measure is of importance in all life-cycle phases, especially for closed pressure
equipment.
IVa. Manufacturing:
Existing 50 mbar piping equipment can be easily upgraded to 1 mbar capacity at an average
cost of 10,000 € per tube.
IVb. Use phase:
This applies only to closed pressure systems as no maintenance or topping-up during the
lifetime is required for sealed pressure systems. Additional operational costs for additional
working time are assumed (2.5 hrs/0.2 t SF6 closed pressure equipment bank under
maintenance) to result from this measure.
V. Leakage detection with helium
This measure applies only to the manufacturing process. Using helium for leakage detection
allows, besides avoiding process intrinsic SF6 emissions, to detect even smaller leaks than
with SF6, as the helium molecules are smaller than SF6 molecules. Considerable investment
costs occur. Operational costs are assumed to differ only little from the previously used
technology which in most cases is integral leakage detection with SF6, although there are also
cases with integral leakage detection with helium substituted for manual leakage detection
with SF6, which had higher operational costs due to longer testing times. Investment costs are
assumed to be €500,000 as an average per site with annual operational costs of about
€50,000.
VI. Repair and replacement
It is assumed that, i) 3% of closed pressure systems have leakage rates9 of 2.5% points above
their design-related leakage rates and ii) that repair action would be taken only after one year.
It is assumed that 90% of the leaky equipment can be repaired, while 10% have to be
replaced, having only a lifetime of 30 years behind them. Repair of one unit is assumed to
take one day
9
Not taking emissions from gas handling into account.
37
VII. Establishment of an efficient disposal infrastructure
Several decommissioning processes and infrastructures for the end of life treatment of SF6
electrical equipment have been established because the decommissioning differs from
product to product and manufacturer to manufacturer. At present only a few disposal
companies offering these services in the whole EU-27. As the future structure is not fully
clear and investment and operational costs for an EU-wide infrastructure are difficult to
estimate regarding the number of disposal companies which will participate, number of staff
to be trained and number of evacuation equipments to be acquired, a simpler approach is
taken. In Norway a decommissioning infrastructure for medium voltage equipment has been
set up based on an agreement with the Norwegian Government regarding the disposal of
electronic waste. For switchgear, the fee is 1% of the price. This infrastructure is taken as a
basis of calculation to estimate the costs of a decommissioning infrastructure.
Emission reduction potential
As industry already realized substantial emission reductions until 2005 (see Figure 9) we
estimated that in 2005 around 60% of the available overall reduction potential of measures IVI has already been implemented. Accordingly Table 14 only shows the remaining 40% of
reduction potential in 2020. In total a reduction potential of additional 2,419 kt of CO2 eq. is
achievable, if all measures are applied consequently.
Estimated Abatement Costs
Costs are calculated not only for the remaining reduction potentials, but also for the
reductions already achieved by industry. As described above abatement measures I-VI are
considered to be already in place in 2005. It is estimated that the remaining reduction
potential can be achieved at the same costs. Specific abatement cost per t abated CO2 eq. are
given in Table 15.
38
Table 15 S F6 Emissions reduction potential and costs in 2020
No.
Measure
Reduction
Specific
potential
Costs
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
Manufacture
Ia.
Awareness Manufacture – Training, Monitoring
96
0.5
II.
Centralized Supply System
236
1.2
III.
Improved Filling Procedure
200
0.4
Iva.
Evacuation Manufacture
160
4.9
V
Leakage detection with helium
120
5.7
360
1.8
Use-Phase
Ib.
Awareness Use-Phase – Training, Monitoring,
Labelling
IVb
Evacuation Use-phase
8
24.1
VI
Repair and Replacement
44
40.2
1,195
1.3
Decommissioning
VII
Decommissioning infrastructure
Total Reduction Potential
4.2
2,419
Magnesium production and casting
SF6 is used as a component of a cover gas to protect the surfaces of molten magnesium from
igniting explosively in air. It is used in various casting operations at primary and secondary
magnesium smelters, die casting plants and gravity casting plants. SF6 emission factors of the
magnesium production vary from 0.1 to 11 kg/t magnesium component produced, depending
on type of operation and containment, cover gas flow rates, SF6 concentration in the cover
gas and degree of gas feed process control. Best practices at primary smelters and die casting
operations indicate SF6 emission rates below 1.0 kg/t magnesium. Primary magnesium
production does –to our knowledge- not take place within the EU and secondary magnesium
production only in selected member states. SF6 emissions data from magnesium production
and casting are taken from the national inventory submissions to the UNFCCC except for UK
and Spain. British and Spanish emission data is taken from (US EPA, 2006). In 2005 the
secondary magnesium production and casting operations in six European countries
contributed 1,318 kt of CO2 eq. to the overall F-Gas emissions in the EU-27. As Regulation
39
(EC) No 842/2006 on certain fluorinated greenhouse gases prohibits the use of SF6 or
preparations in magnesium die-casting, except where the quantity of SF6 used is below 850
kg per year from 1 January 2008, it is estimated that emissions decrease until 2020. Country
specific SF6 emissions in 2005 are shown in Table 16.
Table 16 S F6 emissions from magnesium production an d c asting in 2005
Member state
2005
[kt CO2 eq.]
Germany
660
France
439
United Kingdom
17
Italy
85
Spain
17
Sweden
100
SUM
1,318
Key Abatement Options
Substitution of SF6 by SO2
The option to fully abate emissions from this source would be to completely switch to SO2 as
protection gas. SO2 has been used traditionally in magnesium foundries. Owing to the toxic
properties of SO2, its use calls for safety-relevant modifications which are not economic for
smaller magnesium foundries. The use of SO2 has the potential to reduce SF6 emissions by
100%, because a complete replacement of the cover gas is involved.
The effect achieved in 2010 of the prohibition of SF6 in magnesium die casting is put at
around 500 kt CO2 equivalent (Öko-Institut, 2007).
In addition to secondary smelters there is a larger number of often small foundries which are
active in die casting magnesium in Europe. An investment of 100,000 € per foundry to
switch to SO2 (potentially including a modified gas supply system, improved ventilation and
gas warning systems) would lead to substantial conversion costs. It should be kept in mind
that many foundries are small and medium enterprises which may require financial assistance
for this conversion process. The secondary smelters would require a higher investment
(indicative number of €1 million). It is assumed that operation and maintenance costs would
remain roughly constant after a conversion as SF6 is a rather expensive substance in
comparison to SO2. More detailed information on abatement costs is clearly needed.
40
4.3
Other sources
SF6 emissions from other sources in the EU-27 amounted to approx. 4,000 kt CO2 eq. in
2005. They are emitted from various sources and mostly only reported aggregated in the
national inventory reports. Emission data for the EU-15 are taken from the submissions
and data for new member states were assigned by means of GDP.
Among others SF6 emissions occur from the following sources:
Soundproof Glazing
SF6 is filled in the pane interspace of double glazing windows in order to improve the sound
insulating effect. Emissions occur on production, during use, and particularly on disposal.
The EU-F-Gas-Regulation prohibits the filling in windows from July 4th 2007. But emissions
from use and disposal continue arising for more than two decades (Schwarz & Wartmann,
2005).
Car Tires
SF6 in tires is used for longer pressure stability as long as no mechanical damage occurs. The
use in car-tires is also prohibited by the F-Gas Regulation from July 4th 2007.
Sport Shoe Soles
SF6 is used in sport shoe soles to ensure an elastic attenuation of shocks when the foot
touches ground. All sport shoes containing SF6 are imported. The EC-F-Gas-Regulation
prohibits placing on the market of SF6-filled sport shoe soles from July 4th 2006.
Additionally SF6 is used in the following applications or processes:
•
•
•
•
•
Particle Accelerators
Military Aircraft Radar
Glass Fibres
Power Capacitors
Tracer Gas
Key abatement options:
As the majority of these applications are already prohibited by the EU-F-Regulation no
specific abatement options were considered for this field. The level of emissions will
nevertheless remain quite significant beyond 2020 because effective abatement options for
the recovery of SF6 from windows at demolition sites are unlikely to be developed.
41
5
Conclusions
Figure 3 shows the baseline and abatement potential for F-gases as identified at the start of
the SERPEC study. However, a recently but clear trend is observed in which HCFC
containing refrigerants are replaced by HFCs (Velders et al., 2009). HFCs do not deplete the
ozone layer but are potent greenhouse gases. Thus, the transition away from ozone depleting
substances like HCFCs has implications for future climate. When such HFCs are not only
applied in new but also in existing refrigeration systems that are still using HCFCs today, the
total F-Gas emission in the baseline will increase to around 81 CO2-eq in 2020 and 2030 (see
Figure 11)10. The uncertainty in the baseline illustrates the importance of improved
monitoring of F-gases, which may provide a cheap option to ‘decrease’ the current
assumptions on baseline emissions. Indeed, improved monitoring will be a key element in the
planned review of Regulation (EC) No 842/2006.
80
70
Mt CO2 eq
60
50
40
30
20
10
Base
0
2000
2005
Reduction
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure 10 Preliminary baseline and abatement potential for F-gases in the EU27.
Upper line shows the baseline originally i dentified in this study, th e
lower line the emissions after applying maximum abatement (see main
text).
10
This estimate is consistent with IIASA’s (2008) input to the European Commissions 2008 Climate package. Indeed, the
difference between our initial baseline and IIASA’s estimate in 2020 could largely be explained by, i) 14 Mt higher estimate of
emissions of HFCs used as refrigerants in commercial refrigeration equipment, while the equipment is in use (emissions from
banked HFC), ii) 10 Mt higher estimate of emissions of HFCs used as refrigerants in industrial refrigeration (including food and
agricultural) equipment, while the equipment is in use (emissions from 'banked' HFC).
42
Relative to the new baseline, we identified an abatement potential of 26 Mt CO2-eq in 2020.
Figure 12 illustrates the identified abatement options in a cost-efficiency (€/t-CO2eq) order.
More detailed information is given in Table 17 . Underlying investment costs are given in
Appendix 1. The data show that some 20 Mt CO2-eq abatement is available at costs below
200 €/t-CO2eq.
90
80
Mt CO2 eq
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Base (Direct)
0
2000
2005
Reduction
2010
2015
Reduction-extra
2020
2025
2030
Fi gure 11 Fi nal baseli ne and abatement potenti al for F- gases in the EU27. The
lower dotted line refers to the ‘HFC-uncertainty’ (see main text).
The earlier mentioned ‘HFC-uncertainty’ in the baseline development is also reflected in the
abatement potential. The baseline assumption that all existing refrigeration units that are still
using HCFCs will be retrofitted with HFC-refrigerants, implies that these HFCs can be
removed from these units –and replaced by new systems with natural refrigerants- when they
reach the end of their lifetime between 2020 and 2030. The IPCC guidelines recommend an
average recovery efficiency of approximately 70% for developed countries, when calculating
HFC-emissions from disposed systems. As a result, we assumed that between 2020 and 2030
an additional HFC-reduction of around 20 Mt CO2-eq is possible (see Figure 11, lower dotted
line). Because of the uncertainty in this option, we did not assess its costs.
43
900
€ / t CO2 eq
700
500
300
100
-100 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-300
Mt CO2eq
Figure 12: C ost-curve for F- gases on the EU27 level in 2020
44
Table 17 A batement potential & costs f or 2020 baseline – least c ost or der
Measure
Abated
emissions
Cumulative sum of
Reductions
Specific
abatement cost
[kt CO2 eq.]
[kt CO2 eq.]
[€/t CO2 eq.]
Gas insulated switchgear:
Improved Filling Procedure
200
200
0.4
Gas insulated switchgear:
Awareness Manufacture
96
296
0.5
Gas insulated switchgear:
Centralized Supply System
236
532
1.2
Gas insulated switchgear:
Decommissioning infrastructure
1,195
1,727
1.3
Gas insulated switchgear:
Awareness Use-Phase
360
2,087
1.8
HFC-23: Oxidation
133
2,220
2
Gas insulated switchgear:
Evacuation Manufacture
160
2,380
4.9
Gas insulated switchgear:
Leakage detection with helium
120
2,500
5.7
Aluminium production:
Coversion: VSS to PFBS
514
3,014
6.5
Foams XPS: Carbon dioxide
1,900
4,914
9
Foams PU cont./discont. panels:
Hydrocarbons
1,000
5,914
24
Gas insulated switchgear:
Evacuation Use-phase
8
5,922
24
Stationary AC: Leakage Reduction
2,056
7,978
27
Commercial Refrigeration: Leakage
Reduction
5,639
13,617
32
Industrial Refrigeration:Natural
Refrigerants
174
13,791
34
HFC-23: Improve oxidation downtime
25
13,816
40
Transport Refrigeration: Leakage
Reduction on Ship
481
14,297
40
Gas insulated switchgear: Repair
and Replacement
44
14,341
40
Industrial Refrigeration: Leakage
Reduction
1,301
15,642
72
Transport Refrigeration: Leakage
Reduction on Trucks
1,347
16,989
97
Aluminium production: Coversion:
SWPB to PFBS
147
17,136
109
Commercial Refrigeration: Natural
Refrigerants
2,207
19,343
117
Foams PU Appliances:
Hydrocarbons
242
19,585
146
Domestic Refrigeration: Improve
recycling efficiency
928
20,513
162
Mobile AC: Mandatory system checks
5,215
25,728
959
45
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CAN, (2007) Climate Action Network Europe: Fact Sheet – HFCs in foams, March 2004
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Harnisch & Hendriks, (2000) Harnisch, J. and Hendriks, C.: Economic Evaluation of Emission
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Mc.Culloch, (2005) McCulloch, A.: Incineration of HFC-23 Waste Streams for Abatement of
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NIR Germany, (2007) Federal Environment Agency: Submission under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change 2007 - National Inventory Report, Dessau, May 2007.
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Schwarz, (2001) Schwarz, W.: The annual emission rate of car air-conditioning systems during
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-
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-
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-
to future climate forcing. In press. Published online before print June 22, 2009, doi:
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-
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v
49
Appendix 1
This appendix provides more detailed information on baseline emissions and costs:
Figure 13 illustrates the total HFC emissions from different sources in 2005 and the
projected HFC emissions under the BAU scenario in 2020 and 2030 for the EU-27.
Overall HFC emissions will decrease by 40% until 2030 as a result of the European
legislation on F-Gases11. The biggest emission reduction results from Directive
2006/40/EC, which bans refrigerants with a GWP above 150 in mobile air conditioning
systems from 2011.
Figure 14 illustrates the total PFC emissions from different sources in 2005 and the
projected PFC emissions under the BAU scenario in 2020 and 2030 for the EU-27. PFC
emissions increase only lightly until 2030 due to growth in the semiconductor industry.
Emissions from the aluminium industry are estimated to remain stable until 2030. The
small decrease in 2020 compared to 2005 results from the closure of the Hungarian
aluminium plant in 2006.
Figure 15 present the total SF6 emissions from different sources in 2005 and the
projected SF6 emissions under the BAU scenario in 2020 and 2030 for the EU-27.
Overall SF6 emissions will decrease by a fourth until 2030 due to mandated and
voluntary efforts by users of gas insulated switchgear and different other emission
sources that are affected by certain prohibitions of Regulation (EC) No 842/2006 on
certain fluorinated greenhouse gases. Main driver for the decrease is the ban of SF6 in
magnesium die-casting through Regulation (EC) No 842/2006.
Figure 16 and Figure 17 illustrate the estimated emission deployment under the BAU
scenario from 2005 until 203011.
Table 18 summarizes the emission projections of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 under the BAU
scenario per member state11.
Table 19 shows cost information estimates for emission reduction measures for the 2020
baseline. It shows both, investment and O&M Costs per reduction measure in million
Euros. I.e. the implementation of all measures given for the refrigeration and air
conditioning sector, would require a total investment of € 3billion and additional annual
O&M costs of €8.5 billion.
Table 20 shows the number of aluminium smelters and their applied technology type in
the EU-27 (EU-15) countries in 1990 and 2005. For updated numbers please also see the
comments from the European Aluminium Association in Appendix 2.
11
this assumption was changed in the final phase of the project resulting in a increase of HFC emissions in the baseline, see
chapter 5
50
2005 HFC emissions
Foam Blowing Domestic Refr.
Production of HCFC22
Commercial Refr.
Transport Refr.
Mobile AC
Industrial Refr.
Staitonary AC
52,653 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
2020 BAU HFC emissions
Domestic Refr.
Foam Blowing
Production of HCFC22
Commercial Refr.
Mobile AC
Transport Refr.
Staitonary AC
Industrial Refr.
41,393 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
2030 BAU HFC emissions
Foam Blowing
Domestic Refr.
Production of HCFC22
Commercial Refr.
Staitonary AC
Industrial Refr.
Transport Refr.
30,323 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
Figure 13 Aggregated HFC emissions in 2005, 2 020 and 2030
51
2005 PFC Emissions
Other Sources
Aluminium Industry
Semiconductor
Industry
5,794 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
2020 BAU PFC emissions
Other Sources
Aluminium Industry
Semiconductor
Industry
6,407 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
2030 BAU PFC emissions
Other Sources
Aluminium Industry
Semiconductor
Industry
6,407 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
Figure 14 Aggregated PFC emissions in 2005, 2020 and 2030
52
2005 SF6 emissions
Gas Insulated
Switchgear
Other Sources
Magnesium
Production
8,014 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
2020 BAU SF6 emissions
Gas Insulated
Switchgear
Other Sources
Magnesium
Production
6,591 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
2030 BAU SF6 emissions
Gas Insulated
Switchgear
Other Sources
Magnesium
Production
6,305 kt CO2 eq. yr.-1
Figure 15 Aggregated SF6 emissions in 2005, 2 020 and 2030
53
50
[Mt CO2-eq.]
40
30
HFC emissions
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure 16 Pr ojected HFC emissions under the BA U scenario
9.0
PFC emissions
SF6 emissions
[Mt CO2-eq.]
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Figure 17 Pr ojecte d PFC an d S F6 emissi ons unde r the BAU s cenari o
54
Tabl e 18 BAU HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions in 2005, 2020 and 2030 [kt C O2 eq.]
12
HFC
2005
2020
PFC
2030
SF6
2005
2020
2030
2005
2020
2030
Austria
902
738
532
58
79
79
118
106
106
Belgium
1,337
1,031
771
10
14
14
43
38
38
Bulgaria
452
448
336
1
2
2
8
8
8
Cyprus
47
47
35
0
0
0
5
4
4
CZ Republic
605
599
450
444
597
597
39
35
35
Denmark
587
480
346
0
0
0
22
22
22
Estonia
76
76
57
0
0
0
4
4
4
Finland
576
471
340
1
2
2
20
17
17
France
7,178
5,762
4,202
982
1,080
1,080
1,755
1,418
1,323
Germany
9,367
7,530
5,486
884
1,072
1,072
3,064
2,340
2,197
Greece
3,758
986
711
72
72
72
5
5
5
Hungary
593
588
441
221
17
17
34
31
31
Ireland
456
373
269
137
184
184
38
40
40
6,530
5,296
3,837
365
429
429
658
586
568
Latvia
135
134
100
6
8
8
5
5
5
Lithuania
200
198
148
0
0
0
8
7
7
Luxembourg
54
44
32
0
0
0
4
3
3
Malta
23
23
17
0
0
0
2
2
2
Netherlands
1,771
1,449
1,044
179
211
211
445
392
392
Poland
2,243
2,128
1,667
243
253
253
95
86
86
Portugal
1,152
942
679
0
0
0
10
12
12
Romania
1,268
1,257
943
570
610
610
31
28
28
Slovakia
317
314
236
32
52
52
15
13
13
Slovenia
117
116
87
124
116
116
11
10
10
5,094
4,059
2,973
143
143
143
289
313
309
978
800
577
301
304
304
142
68
46
UK
6,836
5,504
4,006
532
662
662
1,145
999
995
EU-27
52,653
41,393
30,323
5,305
5,907
5,907
8,014
6,591
6,305
Italy
Spain
Sweden
12
Without PFC emissions from other sources
55
Table 19 Cost information estimates for emission reduction measures for the
2020 baseline
Measure
HFC-23: Oxidation
HFC-23:
Improve oxidation downtime
Foams XPS: Carbon dioxide
Foams PU cont./discont. panels:
Hydrocarbons
Foams PU Appliances:
Hydrocarbons
Domestic Refrigeration:
Improve recycling efficiency
Commercial Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction
Commercial Refrigeration:
Natural Refrigerants
Transport Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction on Ship
Transport Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction on Trucks
Industrial Refrigeration:
Leakage Reduction
Industrial Refrigeration:
Natural Refrigerants
Stationary AC: Leakage Reduction
Mobile AC:
Mandatory system checks
Aluminium production:
Conversion: VSS to PFBS
Aluminium production:
Conversion: SWPB to PFBS
Gas insulated switchgear:
Awareness Manufacture
Gas insulated switchgear:
Awareness Use-Phase
Gas insulated switchgear:
Centralized Supply System
Gas insulated switchgear:
Improved Filling Procedure
Gas insulated switchgear:
Evacuation Manufacture
Gas insulated switchgear:
Evacuation Use-phase
Gas insulated switchgear:
Leakage detection with helium
Gas insulated switchgear:
Repair and Replacement
Gas insulated switchgear:
Decommissioning infrastructure
Investment costs
O&M costs
[million €]
[million €]
3.0
0.2
-
1.0
27.0
15.0
25.0
21.0
60.0
30.0
-
150.0
-
232.6
2,864.0
-
-
19.4
-
32.5
70.0
87.0
-
14.9
70.0
50.0
-
5,000.0
36.9
-
178.7
0.8
0.14
-
1.6
2.7
0.4
1.6
-
5.4
-
2.1
-
13.5
1.35
1.7
0.5
-
11.7
56
Table 20 EU-27 (EU-15) Aluminium smelters and Emission fact ors by Technology
Type in 1990 and 2005
13
13
European Aluminium Association; International Aluminium Institute; Aluminium Verlag
57
Appendix 2
The following comments were received from industry representatives.
Comments from the European Aluminium Association:
•
•
•
•
•
There are no SWPB smelters left in Europe. The plants in Vlissingen and in San
Ciprian have been converted to PFPB, while the SWPB part of Kidricevo is already
closed.
The VSS plants at Avilles and La Coruna are under conversion to PFVSS. The plant
at Konim remains the only plant still using VSS technology
According to the latest IAI PFC survey the emission factor per ton produed
aluminium have decreased slightly compared to the numbers given in 2005:
PFPB:
0.24 t CO2-eq/ t Al
CWPB :
0.53 t CO2-eq/ t Al
SWPB:
10.9 t CO2-eq/ t Al
VSS:
0.74 t CO2-eq/ t Al
HSS:
2.91 t CO2-eq/ t Al
Abatement cost might be considerably higher as stated by Ecofys, due to increased
construction cost in the past 5 years.
Due to the conversion of the plants in Vlissingen, San Ciprian, Avilles, La Coruna
and the closing of the SWPB part in Kidricevo, the abatement potetntial is far less
than the amount given in chapter 3.1.
58
Comments from Honeywell Fluorine Products on Foams:
•
The section on foam does not consider the growing use of spray foam, where the use
of (extremely) flammable agents is not possible for safety-related reasons. Spray
foam is a cost-effective way to retro-fit existing buildings, thus substantially
contributing to CO2 emission savings.
•
Honeywell has developed a new generation of fluorinated fluids, hydrofluoro-olefins
– HFOs, with a very low GWP. These substances are commercially available, and
can be an alternative for replacements of the mainstream HFC-based fluids.
We would like to thank all involved experts to their contributions:
Additionally we would like to thank Prof. Michael Kauffeld (University of Applied
Science, Karlsruhe for his contribution to the refrigeration and air conditioning
chapter.
59