# Probabilistic Transmission System Planning. IEEE Press Series on

```Brochure
Probabilistic Transmission System Planning. IEEE Press Series on Power
Engineering
Description:
A solid reference exploring one of the most important areas in the electric power industry
Transmission planning is one of the most essential activities in the electric power industry, with billions of
dollars invested in transmission systems by electric utility companies and governments every year. In the
United States alone, the Obama Administration's energy plan is spending about four billion dollars in smart
grids and transmission infrastructures.
Systematically discussing probabilistic transmission planning and its applications that make systems
smarter, Probabilistic Transmission System Planning addresses the concepts, models, methods, data, and
various actual issues in probabilistic transmission planning. The probabilistic concept is a main thread
throughout the book and touches each chapter. The applied examples are all based on real projects that
have been implemented in the utility industry.
All basic aspects in transmission planning are covered, including:
Conventional and special system analysis techniques
Reliability evaluation
Economic assessment
Data preparation
Fuzzy techniques for data uncertainty
Network reinforcement planning
Retirement planning of network components
Substation planning
Single–circuit supply system planning
Major blackout events in power systems in recent years indicate that deterministic methods are not good
enough. With probabilistic methods providing planning solutions closer to reality, Probabilistic Transmission
System Planning presents practicing engineers, researchers, professors, and graduates in the power system
field with the latest ideas and methods for enhancing transmission systems.
Contents:
Preface and Acknowledgments xxi
1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Overview of Transmission Planning 1
1.2 Necessity of Probabilistic Transmission Planning 6
1.3 Outline of the Book 8
2 BASIC CONCEPTS OF PROBABILISTIC PLANNING 11
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Probabilistic Planning Criteria 12
2.3 Procedure of Probabilistic Planning 14
2.4 Other Aspects in Probabilistic Planning 17
2.5 Conclusions 18
3.1 Introduction 21
3.4 Uncertainty and Correlation of Bus Loads 42
3.5 Voltage– and Frequency–Dependent Bus Loads 44
3.6 Conclusions 46
4 SYSTEM ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES 49
4.1 Introduction 49
4.2 Power Flow 50
4.3 Probabilistic Power Flow 53
4.4 Optimal Power Flow (OPF) 57
4.5 Probabilistic Search Optimization Algorithms 64
4.6 Contingency Analysis and Ranking 72
4.7 Voltage Stability Evaluation 76
4.8 Transient Stability Solution 80
4.9 Conclusions 83
5 PROBABILISTIC RELIABILITY EVALUATION 85
5.1 Introduction 85
5.2 Reliability Indices 86
5.3 Reliability Worth Assessment 90
5.5 Composite System Adequacy Evaluation 99
5.6 Probabilistic Voltage Stability Assessment 107
5.7 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 114
5.8 Conclusions 120
6 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS METHODS 123
6.1 Introduction 123
6.2 Cost Components of Projects 124
6.3 Time Value of Money and Present Value Method 125
6.4 Depreciation 131
6.5 Economic Assessment of Investment Projects 137
6.6 Economic Assessment of Equipment Replacement 142
6.7 Uncertainty Analysis in Economic Assessment 144
6.8 Conclusions 147
7 DATA IN PROBABILISTIC TRANSMISSION PLANNING 149
7.1 Introduction 149
7.2 Data for Power System Analysis 150
7.3 Reliability Data in Probabilistic Planning 163
7.4 Other Data 176
7.5 Conclusions 178
8 FUZZY TECHNIQUES FOR DATA UNCERTAINTY 181
8.1 Introduction 181
8.2 Fuzzy Models of System Component Outages 182
8.3 Mixed Fuzzy and Probabilistic Models for Loads 190
8.4 Combined Probabilistic and Fuzzy Techniques 192
8.5 Example 1: Case Study Not Considering Weather Effects 196
8.6 Example 2: Case Study Considering Weather Effects 202
8.7 Conclusions 212
9 NETWORK REINFORCEMENT PLANNING 215
9.1 Introduction 215
9.2 Probabilistic Planning of Bulk Power Supply System 216
9.3 Probabilistic Planning of Transmission Loop Network 225
9.4 Conclusions 234
10 RETIREMENT PLANNING OF NETWORK COMPONENTS 237
10.1 Introduction 237
10.2 Retirement Timing of an Aged AC Cable 238
10.3 Replacement Strategy of an HVDC Cable 247
10.4 Conclusions 257
11 SUBSTATION PLANNING 259
11.1 Introduction 259
11.2 Probabilistic Planning of Substation Confi guration 260
11.3 Transformer Spare Planning 272
11.4 Conclusions 280
12 SINGLE–CIRCUIT SUPPLY SYSTEM PLANNING 283
12.1 Introduction 283
12.2 Reliability Performance of Single–Circuit Supply Systems 285
12.3 Planning Method of Single–Circuit Supply Systems 288
12.4 Application to Actual Utility System 298
12.5 Conclusions 307
APPENDIX A ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY AND STATISTICS 309
A.1 Probability Operation Rules 309
A.2 Four Important Probability Distributions 310
A.3 Measures of Probability Distribution 313
A.4 Parameter Estimation 314
A.5 Monte Carlo Simulation 316
APPENDIX B ELEMENTS OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS 321
B.1 Fuzzy Sets 321
B.2 Fuzzy Numbers 323
B.3 Two Typical Fuzzy Numbers in Engineering Applications 325
B.4 Fuzzy Relations 326
APPENDIX C ELEMENTS OF RELIABILITY EVALUATION 329
C.1 Basic Concepts 329
C.2 Crisp Reliability Evaluation 331
C.3 Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation 335
References 341
Index 349
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