A Comparative Analysis of
Residential Heating
Systems
1 LU/HSW/SD Hour
AIA Best Practices
The Propane Education and Research Council (PERC) sponsors this course
provided by Hanley Wood, a Registered Provider with the American Institute of
Architects Continuing Education Systems. Credit earned on completion of this
program will be reported to CES Records for AIA members. Certificates of
completion are available for non-AIA members.
This program is registered with the AIA/CES for continuing professional education.
As such, it does not include content that me be deemed or construed to be an
approval or endorsement by the AIA of any material of construction or any method
or manner of handling, using, distributing, or dealing in any material or product.
Questions related to specific topics covered in this learning unit should be directed
to PERC upon completion of this course.
Copyright
This presentation is protected by US and International copyright laws.
Reproduction, distribution, display and use of the presentation without
written permission from PERC is prohibited.
© The Propane Education and Research Council, 2009
Learning Objectives
•
Describe general trends when comparing different residential
heating systems and how they compare in terms of first costs,
operating costs, carbon emissions, and paybacks
•
Describe how carbon emissions differ from various heating
systems, fueled by different sources of energy, in various
locations in the U.S.
•
Compare and contrast trade-offs involved in specifying high
efficiency HVAC equipment for residential projects in terms of
payback periods
•
Describe where certain types of HVAC system may be most
appropriate to specify based on multiple factors
Home Heating: Then and Now
NOW: Green LATER
Matters.
and mechanical
systems
are
ON: Homes
Energy efficiency
became more
important
reliable
heatcarbon
was theemissions.
goal
increasinglyTHEN:
ratedCentral,
for energy
and
Energy
Carbon
Images: www.thepeoplehistory.com & treehugger.com
What’s at Stake?
Why do residential heating systems matter?
For households:
• Average heating outlay
is $600-$1200 annually
• Heating costs represent
about ~31% of
household energy costs
nationally, and closer to
40% in areas like the
Midwest and Northeast
How We Use Energy in Our Homes
Source: 2007 Buildings Energy Data Book,
Table 4.2.1., 2005 energy cost data
What’s at Stake with Residential Heating? (cont.)
What’s at Stake with Residential Heating? (cont.)
At the national level:
•
•
113 million existing
housing units
Residential buildings
are responsible for
22% of the nation’s
total energy use each
year;
Residential buildings
generate 21% of the
nation’s carbon
emissions
30.0
Millions of Housing Units
•
Age of Main Heating System in
Residence (Years)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Less than 2 2 to 4 Years 5 to 9 Years
Years
10 to 19
Years
20 Years or Don't Know
More
A Unique R&D Study to Find Some Answers…
• A comprehensive,
objective analysis
of propane-based
and competing
residential heating
systems across a
variety of climates
and locations.
•
http://www.buildwithpropane.com/?page=r
esearchandinsights
Background: Heating Systems Analyzed in the Study
Heating Systems and Efficiency Ratings
Furnaces
•
•
•
•
Boilers
• High Efficiency Propane with Forced-Air (water/air heat HX)
• High Efficiency Fuel Oil Hydronic w/ Forced-air (water/air HX)
• Standard Efficiency Propane Hydronic with Baseboard
Radiant
• High Efficiency Propane Hydronic with In-Floor Radiant
• High Efficiency Fuel Oil Hydronic with In-Floor Radiant
• 95 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
• 86 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
• 80 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
GSHPs
• GSHP Closed Loop System with Electric Resistance Back-up
• EER=14.1; COP=3.3
ASHPs
• Standard Efficiency ASHP with Electric Resistance Back-up
• High Efficiency ASHP with Electric Resistance Back-up
• Standard Efficiency ASHP w/ High Efficiency Propane
Furnace Back-up
• High Efficiency ASHP with High Efficiency Propane Furnace
Back-up
• 13 SEER; HSPF 7.7
• 15 SEER; HSPF 8.5
• 13 SEER; HSPF 7.7; 95
AFUE
• 15 SEER; HSPF 8.5; 95
AFUE
Standard Efficiency Propane
High Efficiency Propane
Standard Efficiency Fuel Oil
High Efficiency Fuel Oil
•
•
•
•
78 AFUE w/
95 AFUE w/
95 AFUE w/
95 AFUE w/
13 SEER A/C
13 SEER A/C
13 SEER A/C
13 SEER A/C
• 95 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
• 86 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
Background: Heating Systems Analyzed in the Study
Heating Systems and Efficiency Ratings
Furnaces
•
•
•
•
Boilers
• High Efficiency Propane with Forced-Air (water/air heat HX)
• High Efficiency Fuel Oil Hydronic w/ Forced-air (water/air HX)
• Standard Efficiency Propane Hydronic with Baseboard
Radiant
• High Efficiency Propane Hydronic with In-Floor Radiant
• High Efficiency Fuel Oil Hydronic with In-Floor Radiant
• 95 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
• 86 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
• 80 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
GSHPs
• GSHP Closed Loop System with Electric Resistance Back-up
• EER=14.1; COP=3.3
ASHPs
• Standard Efficiency ASHP with Electric Resistance Back-up
• High Efficiency ASHP with Electric Resistance Back-up
• Standard Efficiency ASHP w/ High Efficiency Propane
Furnace Back-up
• High Efficiency ASHP with High Efficiency Propane Furnace
Back-up
• 13 SEER; HSPF 7.7
• 15 SEER; HSPF 8.5
• 13 SEER; HSPF 7.7; 95
AFUE
• 15 SEER; HSPF 8.5; 95
AFUE
Standard Efficiency Propane
High Efficiency Propane
Standard Efficiency Fuel Oil
High Efficiency Fuel Oil
•
•
•
•
78 AFUE w/
95 AFUE w/
95 AFUE w/
95 AFUE w/
13 SEER A/C
13 SEER A/C
13 SEER A/C
13 SEER A/C
• 95 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
• 86 AFUE w/ 13 SEER A/C
Background: Locations Where Heating Systems were
Analyzed
Duluth, MN
Portland, OR
Boise, ID
Burlington, VT
Madison, WI
Las Vegas, NV
Des Moines,
IA
Peoria, IL
Grand
Rapids, MI
Buffalo, NY
Mansfield, OH
Baltimore, MD
Indianapolis, IN
Columbia, MO
Nashville, TN
Montgomery, AL
Climate Zone Map from U.S. Department of Energy website
Background: House Prototypes for New & Existing
Building Characteristic
Existing Home Prototype
Above-Grade Square footage
1,660 SF
Number of stories
Foundation Type
Window Area
Attic R-Value
Wall R-Value
New Home Prototype
2,434 SF
1 or 2, depending on
1
location
Slab, crawlspace, and
Slab, crawlspace, and
basement, depending on
basement, depending on
location
location
15% of above-grade gross 15% of above-grade gross
wall area
wall area
R-7 up to R-22, depending R-30 up to R-49,
on location
depending on location
R-13 to R-21, depending
R-9
on location
Based on data from:
U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
U.S. Department of Energy’s Building America Program
2006 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC)
U.S. Census Bureau
Background: Carbon Emissions & Emissions Factors
•
•
CO2 emissions depend on the amount of energy used, the type of
energy used to power a heating system
The emissions analysis in the study accounted for different fuels, and
also for electricity which comes from different types of sources
Carbon Emissions by Fuels Used to Generate Electricity
Fuels Used to Generate
Electricity
Proportions of Resulting
CO2 Emissions
Source: “Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change, and Energy,” US EIA, May 2008.
Background: Carbon Emissions by Electricity and Other
Sources
Source: “Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change, and Energy,” US EIA, May 2008.
Background: Estimating the First Costs of Systems
Cost Estimates for New Homes
– Heating and cooling unit (e.g., furnace w/ central A/C, heat pump)
• Equipment cost
• Installation cost
– Distribution system materials (e.g. ducts, piping)
• Material costs (e.g. ducts)
• Installation costs
– Loop field for Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) systems
The cost of an
A/C system was
added to
furnaces and
boilers to treat
heat pumps fairly
• Materials & installation for drilling, pump and tubing costs
Cost Estimates for Existing Homes
– Heating unit (assumed that cooling unit was not being replaced)
• Equipment + installation costs
– Loop field for GSHP system
• Materials & installation for drilling, pump and tubing costs
Background: Average First Costs for New Homes
System*
Average
First Costs
A – Standard efficiency propane forced-air furnace w/ 13 SEER A/C
B - High efficiency propane forced-air furnace w/ 13 SEER A/C
C - High efficiency propane boiler with forced-air (water/air HX) w/ 13 SEER A/C
D - Standard eff. propane boiler system with baseboard radiation w/ 13 SEER A/C
$8,848
$9,108
$14,769
$14,165
E - High efficiency propane boiler system with in-floor radiant heat w/ 13 SEER A/C
F – Standard efficiency fuel oil forced-air furnace w/ 13 SEER A/C
G - High efficiency fuel oil forced-air furnace w/ 13 SEER A/C
H - High efficiency fuel oil boiler with forced-air (water/air HX) w/ 13 SEER A/C
I - High efficiency fuel oil boiler system with in-floor radiant heat w/ 13 SEER A/C
J - GSHP closed loop system with electric resistance back-up
$23,877
$8,985
$11,245
$12,065
$20,189
$22,378
K - Standard efficiency ASHP with electric resistance back-up
L - High efficiency ASHP with electric resistance back-up
M - Standard efficiency ASHP with high efficiency propane furnace back-up
N - High efficiency ASHP with high efficiency propane furnace back-up
$9,482
$10,337
$10,573
$11,428
Background: Average First Costs for Existing Homes
System
A – Standard efficiency propane forced-air furnace
B - High efficiency propane forced-air furnace
C - High efficiency propane boiler with forced-air (water/air HX)
D - Standard eff. propane boiler system with baseboard radiation
E - High efficiency propane boiler system with in-floor radiant heat
F – Standard efficiency fuel oil forced-air furnace
G - High efficiency fuel oil forced-air furnace
H - High efficiency fuel oil boiler with forced-air (water/air HX)
I - High efficiency fuel oil boiler system with in-floor radiant heat
J - GSHP closed loop system with electric resistance back-up
K - Standard efficiency ASHP with electric resistance back-up
L - High efficiency ASHP with electric resistance back-up
M - Standard efficiency ASHP with high efficiency propane furnace back-up
N - High efficiency ASHP with high efficiency propane furnace back-up
Average
First Costs
of System
$882
$1,156
$4,336
$2,504
$4,336
$2,100
$4,389
$2,605
$2,605
$24,067
$4,822
$5,892
$5,978
$7,048
Background: Determining which Energy Rates to Use
City
State
Burlington
Baltimore
Buffalo
Des Moines
Peoria
Indianapolis
Grand Rapids
Duluth
Columbia
Mansfield
Nashville
Madison
Montgomery
Boise
Las Vegas
Portland
Average
VT
MD
NY
IA
IL
IN
MI
MN
MO
OH
TN
WI
AL
ID
NV
OR
Residential
Propane Price
($/gal)
3.02
2.92
2.75
1.87
2.15
2.31
2.30
2.04
2.04
2.44
2.15
2.13
2.54
2.30
2.57
2.57
$2.38
Residential
Residential
Heating Oil Price Electricity Price
($/gal)
($/kWh)
3.61
0.15
N/A
0.14
3.54
0.19
N/A
0.10
N/A
0.11
N/A
0.09
N/A
0.11
N/A
0.10
N/A
0.08
N/A
0.10
N/A
0.09
N/A
0.12
N/A
0.10
N/A
0.07
N/A
0.12
N/A
0.09
$3.58
$0.11
Results
•
•
•
Operating costs
Simple paybacks
Emissions
* Performance can vary greatly and is
dependant on several factors
Results: Operating Costs
Graph provided by Newport Partners, LLC
Results:
Simple Payback
Results: Simple Payback for a New Home with High
Efficiency Heating
Q: For a new home with a
focus on high efficiency
heating, what is they
payback for a groundsource heat pump system
compared to a high
efficiency propane furnace
with 13 SEER central A/C?
A: 8.5 years for a GSHP in a
cold climate
19 years for a GSHP in a
very cold climate
Results: Simple Payback for an Existing Home –
Several Options vs. Cheapest Option
Q: For an existing home in a cold climate, where the heating system
needs to be replaced, what is the payback for more efficient systems
relative to a standard 78% propane furnace change out?
Simple Payback (years)
A: A high-efficiency
propane furnace is
the most
economical
upgrade taking
less than 6
months to see a
return.
Results: Simple Payback for an Existing Home –
Comparing Alternatives to a 95% Propane Furnace
Q: For an existing home in a cold climate where an existing system needs to
be replaced, what is the payback for alternative heating systems assuming
the default replacement will be a 95% efficient propane furnace?
A: Air source Heat
Pumps with
propane furnace
backups
(standard or
high-efficiency)
are the most
economical
upgrades
Results: Simple Payback for an Existing Home –
Fuel Oil Furnace as the Default System
Q: For an existing home in a Cold climate when a 78% standard
efficiency fuel oil system needs to be replaced, what is the
payback for more efficient systems?
A: A high efficiency
propane forced air
unit costs less to
install and operate
than a standard
efficiency fuel oil
based system
Results: Overall Conclusions from Simple Payback
• High efficiency systems with moderate first costs are
generally the most attractive options.
• You may be asked by your client which system upgrade will
be cost the least to operate, or the cheapest to install.
– Explain the difference between first costs and long term
energy savings.
– Discuss the benefits of reduced carbon emissions
– Explain that tax incentives or credits may be available
federally or locally that can reduce costs of installation.
• Visit the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency
(www.dsireusa.org) to help the homeowner locate incentives.
Results:
Emissions
Results: Emissions
Roughly three-quarters of the electricity generated in the U.S. is produced
from fossil-fuels.
Burning fossils like coal to produce electricity produces CO2
0.0%
1.6%
17.1%
Coal
Hydroelectric
Other Renewables
12.5%
Natural Gas
59.5%
0.4%
8.8%
Petroleum
Other
Nuclear
Results: CO2 Emissions from Heating System Operation–
Midwest Locations
Results: The propane back-up feature of Dual Fuel Systems
drastically improves emissions compared to ASHPs
31
Results: CO2 Emissions from Heating System Operation–
Midwest Locations
Results: CO2 Emissions from Heating System Operation–
Midwest Locations
Results: Emissions –
How much does it cost to save a ton of CO2?
System
L – High
efficiency ASHP
with electric
resistance backup
M – Standard
efficiency ASHP
with high
efficiency
propane furnace
back-up
Difference
CO2 Emissions
Heating Energy
First Cost
from Heating over $ per Ton
Costs over
Product Life Span
(based on Midwest
CO2
Product Life Span
locations)
Avoided
- Midwest
(Midwest)
Location (tons)
$10,041
$21,512
185.3
$10,356
$21,264
78.4
$315
-$248
106.9
~ $1/ton
CO2
The duel fuel system (M) has a slightly higher first cost, but saves over 7.5
tons of CO2 emissions annually.
Results: Overall Conclusions from Emissions
•
Unless a system is powered by a carbon-free energy source (e.g.
nuclear, wind) – it s operation will result in CO2 emissions. This is true
regardless of whether it’s a heat pump or a furnace, whether it uses
electricity, propane, or fuel oil.
•
Heating system efficiency and the quantity of carbon emissions do not
always correlate. Lower efficiency systems can also be low emitting
systems if the underlying fuel source is not carbon intensive, while
high efficiency systems may also be heavy carbon emitters if the
underlying fuel source is carbon intensive.
•
The cost to save a ton of CO2 is increasingly cited as a tool for
assessing carbon saving opportunities. Heating systems which may
carry higher First Costs but generate lower emissions can be assessed
in terms of “$ per ton CO2 saved”. In many cases this analysis will
identify cost-effective carbon-saving opportunities.
Results Summary
Conclusions of the Research
When considering a heating system for new construction or an
update, consider the following:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
First costs
Operating costs and payback
Resulting emissions from the system
Location
Energy costs
Available energy sources
Conclusions of the Research –
Other Important Considerations
Other important considerations for selecting a heating system:
1. Future shifts in energy prices
2. Comfort
3. Maturity/competition of the local market
Conclusions of the Research – A Snapshot in Time
Some results of this study may be valid for only a short time. Factors which
may change in the near term:
– Energy price changes – would alter Operating Costs and Payback
findings
– Carbon emission regulations
– Greater recognition of not only efficiency – but carbon emissions – in
building codes and green building programs
Factors which should stay consistent:
– Carbon emissions differences among the systems. Long-term energy
supplies may shift – but it will not be a quick evolution.
Thank You
•
This concludes the AIA portion of this learning unit. You will now
take a 10-question quiz.
•
Please contact us with any questions regarding the results of this
research or the scope of the project.
•
•
Click here to read the full study.
www.buildwithpropane.com