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River Basin Water Allocation Planning:
Simulation--Optimization Approach
Simulation
Mojtaba Shourian
Water and Power University of Technology,
Water Research Institute,
Ministry of Energy,
Tehran, Iran
m_shourian@yahoo.com
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Outlines
1- Introduction
2- MODSIM, River Basin
Simulation Model
3- PSO, Heuristic Optimization
Algorithm
4- Water Allocation Planning Using
PSO--MODSIM Model, Results
PSO
5- Conclusion
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Introduction
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Introduction
• The task of IWRM
IWRM:: development of possible water
resource system designs or management plans and
evaluation of their environmental, economic and
social impacts
• IWRM evaluation is complex because of:
• Large Scale Problems
• Dynamic Variables
• Surface & Groundwater Resources Quantity & Quality Issues
• Multi
Multi--Objective Purposes
• Socio
Socio--Economic Issues
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Introduction
• To do so, there is no way than modeling the
performance of water resources systems
• Simulation is perhaps the most widely used method
for evaluating alternative water resources systems with
defined set of design and operational policies
• e.g
e.g.:
.: HEC 5, HEC ResSim,
ResSim, RIBASIM
RIBASIM,, MikeBasin
MikeBasin,,
WEAP,, RiverWare and MODSIM
WEAP
• Simulation models are not able to identify optimal
design and operation of the components of a river
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basin system
Introduction
• Simulation models are not able to identify optimal
design and operation of the components of a river
basin system
Need of Optimization Models
Simulation--Based Optimization is an alternative
• Simulation
method in solving large scale river basin problems
• MODSIM (Labadie, 1970)
1970), a generic river basin
simulation model (DSS) under the .NET framework
with the ability of customization embedded in the
Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm
(Kennedy & Eberhart, 1995
1995)), as the optimization
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procedure
Introduction
• The resulting PSO
PSO--MODSIM model has been used
in analyzing water resources development plans in the
Sirvan river basin In Iran
• The model’s decision variables are the sizes of
planned dams, transfer and pumping systems as well
as the relative priorities of reservoirs target storage
volumes
• The model solves the problem of optimum water
allocations between competing demands inside and
outside of the basin
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MODSIM, River Basin Simulation Model
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MODSIM
• MODSIM, a generalized river basin network model,
was originally developed by Dr. John Labadie of
Colorado State University in the midmid-1970
• MODSIM employs a statestate-ofof-the
the--art network flow
programming algorithm
• Water is allocated according to physical,
hydrological, and institutional aspects of river basin
management
• MODSIM has been successfully applied to a number
of complex river basin systems
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MODSIM
Custom Coding
Graphical User Interface (GUI)
Generating Reports from Outputs
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MODSIM
• Minimum Cost Network
Flow Program (NFP):
Priority--Based Solution
Priority
• Network Structure in
MODSIM:
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Particle Swarm Optimization
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PSO
• The PSO algorithm facilitates simple rules simulating bird
flocking and serves as an optimizer for nonlinear functions
• formed by a set of particles, representing potential solutions for a
given problem
• particles fly through the problem space by following its own
experience and the best experience attained by the swarm as a
whole
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PSO
• Each particle has a position vector xi, a velocity vector vi and the
position of the best candidate solution encountered by the particle
pi. The model also maintains the overall best found point pg,
which also attracts PSO particles
• Changing Location of a Particle
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Integrating PSO & MODSIM:
the PSOPSO-MODSIM model
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PSO-MODSIM
PSO Algorithm:
Optimizing decision
variables like
reservoir volumes,
water transfer systems
capacities
MODSIM: Simulating
the river basin with
the set of variables
proposed by PSO
Calculating the
objective function:
Net benefit of water
quantity supplied to
different demand sites
PSO--NFP Algorithm
PSO
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Water Allocation Planning Using PSOPSO-MODSIM
• Case Study
Simulating in
MODSIM
• Objective function: net benefit of design and operation = benefit of
supplying water for different demands – cost of construction and operation of
plans
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Sirvan river basin modeled in MODSIM
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PSO--MODSIM: Results
PSO
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PSO--MODSIM : Results
PSO
Variation of the best objective function
Ravansar-Gavoshan transfer capacity
Convergence of the objective function
Convergence of Gerdalan reservoir volume
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FLow (MCM)
80
70
Demand
60
Supply
PSO--MODSIM : Results
PSO
50
40
In-Basin annually average water supply
30
20
10
120
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
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9
10
11
12
450
400
350
FLow (MCM)
Demand
100
FLow (MCM)
1
Supply
80
60
40
300
20
250
200
0
1
150
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month
100
Water Supply for Karkheh basin
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Month
8
9
10
11
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Basin Out Flow
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Discharge (cms)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Variation of storage volume in Gerdalan reservoir
Exceeding Probability (%)
Duration curve of flow in Banidar tunnel
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Conclusion
• A simulationsimulation-based optimization model is developed
to find efficient development plans and optimum water
allocations at basin scale
• The general river basin network flow model,
MODSIM, as the simulation engine, was embedded in
the PSO, which is an evolutionary optimization
algorithm
• The resulting PSOPSO-MODSIM model was used to
propose the optimum sizes of the planned water
storage and transfer systems in the basin considering
the coordinated system operations
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Conclusion
• The proposed methodology presents various useful
capabilities in decision supporting systems for decision
making in large scale river basin management
problems
• Use of abilities of various models in a platform
linking them
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Thank You
For Your Attention
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