g:\daten\koester\beiträge\paper_warsaw.doc 8/23/1999 The evolving farm structure in East Germany Ulrich Koester University of Kiel, Germany Paper presented at the Second World Bank EU Accession Workshop in the Rural Sector Warschau/Polen Juni 1999 CONTENTS List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................III List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................III 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................1 2 The Starting Point .................................................................................................................. I 3 The present situation in East as compared to West.............................................................4 3.1 The evolution of farm sizes in East Germany as compared to West Germany............4 3.2 Economic performance of agriculture in the east as compared to the west..................6 3.3 Stability of farms ..................................................................................................................12 3.4 The importance of land tenure...........................................................................................14 4 Summary ...............................................................................................................................16 References ............................................................................................................................................17 Annex ........................................................................................... Fehler! Textmarke nicht definiert. II List ofTables Table 1: Pattern of Farms and Land Use in East Germany in 1989 ....................................... 2 Table 2: Sectoral Performance Data of East German Agriculture at Prices of West German Agriculture1................................................................................................................ 3 Table 3: Size distribution of farms and arable land in East Germany ..................................... 5 Table 4: Selected economic indicators of full-time single owner farms in East and West Germany (Farm sample data) .................................................................................. 5 Table 5: Selected Farm Indicators of full-time farms in East Germany (Farm sample data) . 7 Table 6: Relationship between farm-performance and farm size............................................ 8 Table 7: Farm sample data for alternative legal forms in Germany (1997/98) ..................... 10 Table 8: Actual and planned performance indicators of supported farms in the target year 12 Table 9: Percentage of farms with negative change in equity and negative net investment, West and East Germany (Farm sample data) ....................................................... 14 Annex Table 1: Selected Indicators of Farms in East Germany Classified According to Legal Status (Farms of 1 ha and larger) .......................................................................... 19 List of Figures: Figure 1: Profit / FAK (in DM 1000) in East and West Germany in 1993/94........................... 8 Annex Figure 1: Distribution of Farm Sizes and Arable Land in East Germany................... 20 Annex Figure 2: Agricultural Employment in West- and East Germany ............................... 21 III The evolving farm structure in East Germany Ulrich Koester University of Kiel, Germany 1. Introduction The experience of East Germany will be explored to identify main determinants of structural development of the agricultural sector. It is known that structural changes on any sector depend very much on sector specific and macroeconomic data. Both parts of Germany, the former GDR and the old FRG are affected – by and large - by the same macroeconomic environment since unification. However, the starting point at the time of unification was very different. Hence, it seems to be of interest to investigate whether expectations concerning the evolution of farm structure in the East Germany have materialized. Agriculture in West Germany was and still is mainly based on rather small-scale family farms. East Germany started unification with a farm sector based on large-scale farms nearly totally operated by corporations. One of the expectations, which also affected policies chosen by the German Government, concerned the predominance of family farms and of farms operated by land owners. Hence, one of the objectives of this paper is to compare expectations and reality and to discuss reasons for the divergence. Most farms in East Germany cultivate a high share of rented land. Hence, a second objective of the paper is to elaborate the importance of tenure. Most of the land in East Germany is still operated by corporate farms. A third objective of the paper is to investigate whether the legal status of the farms is an important determinant of economic efficiency and whether the present pattern seems to be sustainable. The transformation of agriculture in the east was very much affected by huge transfers from the west to the east. Farm investment support plaid a major role. There is still a widely held view in Government circles and even among agricultural economists working in farm management that investment support is needed to improve the structure of the farm sector. An investigation of this problem will be the fourth objective of the paper. 2. The Starting Point Prior to 1949, eastern and western Germany comprised the majority most of pre-war Germany, and thus they were subject to the same economic and social policies. According to data for the period 1935-38 labor productivity in the eastern part of the country exceeded that in the west by 57 percent, land productivity by 7.1 percent as yields for most crops and livestock were higher in the east1. Farms in the eastern part were somewhat larger than in the west, and tended to use more advanced technology. Thirty-six percent of arable was cultivated by farms of 50 ha or more in the east as compared to 11.1 percent in the western part of Germany. The average farm size in the east was 10.5 1 Weber, A. (1993), Umgestaltung der Eigentumsverhältnisse und der Produktionsstruktur in der Landwirtschaft der DDR. Kiel p. 68. The productivity is measured in grain equivalents per labor unit and per ha. 1 ha and in the west 5.9 ha. Land/man ratio in 1939 was 27 workers per 100 ha in the east and 43 workers per 100 ha in the west. Development of agriculture in the east was highly affected by the socialist policies in the former GDR. By 1960, more than 90 percent of land was managed in collective or state farms. This distribution of ownership remained essentially the same until 1989, collectivized except the household plots. The proportions of collective, state, and private farms in 1989 are shown in Table 1. The average crop farm size farms was 1328 ha for collective farms and 5012 ha for state farms. Livestock farms were highly specialized and had only 31 ha if they were organized as collectives and no land if they were state farms. Table 1: Pattern of Farms and Land Use in East Germany in 1989 Type of Farm Collective Farms Crop Production Livestock Production State Farms Crop Production Livestock Production Others Other Socialist Enterprises Total of Socialist Enterprises Private Enterprises1 Total Number 3,855.0 1,159.0 2,696.0 465.0 079.0 311.0 75.0 630.0 4,751.0 Area (1,000 ha) 5,343.7 5,259.9 83.8 448.8 396.0 0.0 0.0 34.6 5,848.6 333.1 6,181.8 Percent Share of Area 86.4 85.1 1.3 7.3 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 94.6 5.4 100.0 Average Size ha 1386.2 4538.3 31.1 965.2 5012.7 0.0 0.0 54.9 1231.0 1 This consisted of farm workers’ household production, small gardens, part-time farms, 500 privately owned specialized small farms and farms owned by the church. Source: Statistical Yearbook of the DDR, 1989. In contrast to these developments in Eastern Germany, West Germany’s farms remained private and relatively small. The average farm size increased from 8.06 ha to 18.17 ha from 1949 to 1989, a growth rate of only 0.25 ha per year the increase in farm size was accompanied by a significant increase in land and labor productivity. In East Germany in contrast, the increase in farm size from 8.8 ha to 4 538.3 ha in crop production brought only minor productivity increases over the period. After forty years of separate development, East German agriculture had lower yields per hectare and per animal than in the West, and productivity of land and labor productivity was lower, as well. The inefficiency of East German agriculture was certainly not caused by lack of capital. East German agriculture used more capital per unit produced than West German agriculture, and it is widely accepted that West Germany used too much capital compared to agriculture in other market economies with somewhat larger farm sizes. The two Germanys officially reunited on October 3, 1990. Prior to that, however, in July 1, 1990, East Germany had already immersed its agricultural sector in the new system of rules used by the West. The restructuring of the eastern economy occurred rapidly, introducing sudden changes in a manner never experienced by the West German population. Many policymakers asserted that the people of eastern Germany would not accept such rapid and profound change, but in fact they did. The 2 government adopted many policies to facilitate structural change and to ease the social costs, and the design of agricultural policy is a special case in point. Changes in eastern Germany have been no less than remarkable. Agriculture was one of the few sectors which could even increase production in spite of significant labor shedding2. In contrast, industrial production dropped by nearly 60 percent within two years and was still more than 40 percent lower in 1994 than in 1989. Unification of the two Germanys in October 1990 changed the political and economic environment in eastern Germany in one stroke and gave rise to a sharp adjustment in all sectors of the economy. The pressure to adjust was heavily affected by policy decisions which changed the macroeconomic environment. The first of these decisions concerned the fixation of the exchange rate. The exchange rate chosen of 1 to 1 did not reflect purchasing power parity, which would have led to an exchange rate of 4 to 1, nor did it reflect the parity of real exchange rates, which would have led to an even greater exchange rate. Thus, prices in the former GDR dropped overnight by a high percentage. The agricultural sector produced a negative value added at these new prices in 1990 at the time of reunification. In addition, a political decision was made to quickly adjust wages in East Germany to the level of those in West Germany. Thus, in 1991 the unemployment benefits in real terms in East Germany were even higher than wages before unification. Therefore, the agricultural sector had to adjust to much lower prices and to higher wage rates. Table 2: Sectoral Performance Data of East German Agriculture at Prices of West German Agriculture1 in mill. DM Crop Livestock Total Agricultural Production Production Production Value of Production 13,237.7 18,921.7 32,159.4 Purchased Input 10,061.1 19,102.7 29,163.8 Gross Value Added at Market Prices 3,176.6 -181 2,995.6 Subsidies c 515.9 208.1 724 Taxes c 933.9 933.9 Gross Value Added at Factor Costs c 2,758.6 27.1 2,785.7 Depreciation c 1,817.4 1,305.8 3,123.2 Net Value Added at Market Prices 1,359.2 -1,486.8 -127.6 Net Value Added at Factor Costs 941.2 -1,278.7 -337.5 Wages2 3,875 4,741.7 8,616.7 Interest Payments c 773.2 583.2 1,356.4 Net Income -3,707 -6,603.6 -10,310.6 1 Quantities are an average of 1986-1989 and prices of 1990. Inclusive wages for members of collective farms. L. Monetary values from m directly translated into DM at the official exchange rate of 1 ; 1. Source: Boese, Ch., J. Welschof, H. Neumetzler, and G. Schmidt (1991), ”Auswirkungen der geänderten Rahmenbedingungen auf die Landwirtschaft der neuen Bundesländer”. In: Henrichsmeyer, H., and K. Schmidt (eds), Die Integration der Landwirtschaft der neuen Bundesländer in den europäischen Agrarmarkt. Agrarwirtschaft, Sonderheft 129, Buchedition Agrarmedia, Hamburg and Frankfurt. However, macroeconomic conditions were not only negative for adjusting the sector. It was of utmost importance that there was a social safety net to absorb the outmigrating labor force. Moreover, the 2 See Koester, U. and K. Brooks, Agriculture and German Reunification. Word Bank Discussion Paper No. 355. Washington 1997. 3 stable monetary and institutional framework allowed the sector to adjust much more easily than was the case in countries where these conditions did not prevail. Table 2 clearly shows the pressure to adjust. Net income in agriculture was negative in 1990 at prices of West German agriculture. Livestock production was under more pressure to adjust than crop production. Net value added of livestock production was even negative. This observation deserves some emphasize. A negative value added indicates that the country would have been better off without this production at that point of time. However, the advice to close down all production units which produced a negative value added would have been too hastily at that time as the evolution in agriculture after reunification indicated. 3. The present situation in East as compared to West 3.1. The evolution of farm sizes in East Germany as compared to West Germany. Most farms in East Germany (more than 70 percent) are smaller than 100 ha (see Table 3). However, these smaller farms only cultivate a small share of total land (below 7 percent). In contrast, there are few farms (over five percent) in the size class of 1000 ha and more which cultivate over 50 percent of the land. This distribution of farm sizes and land has not changed much after the first two years of unification (see Figure 1 in Annex for the distribution of land and farm sizes). Farms in the lower size class are mainly single owner farms and the others are dominated by corporate farms. A comparison of full time single owner farms in east and west (see Table 4) clearly shows that even these farms in East Germany are significantly larger than those in West Germany. It might be a surprise that even the average size of the single owner farms increased significantly more in the east than in the west. It was 33.4 ha and 38.99 in 1992 and 1994/95 in the west, but 114 ha and 160 in the east. This development was unexpected. Unemployment in East Germany is much higher than in West Germany and wages are lower in the east than in the west. Hence, one could have expected that the macroeconomic environment would have favored faster changes in farm sizes in the west than in the east. However, even the new full-time farms of single owners are significantly larger in the east than in the west, and surprisingly the change in farm size of single owner farms over time is greater in the east. Due to the macroeconomic conditions and the different starting points in 1990 one would have expected a smaller outmigration in East than in West Germany and, hence, a more labor intensive agriculture in the east. Table 4 clearly shows that the land/man ratio was already lower when the single owner farms in the east were founded in 1991 and even more surprisingly, the man/land ratio declined even somewhat more in the east than in the west. This development occurred in a macroeconomic environment with higher unemployment rates and lower wages in east than west. Of course, it was known that there was significant disguised unemployment in East Germany and in agriculture even more than in industry. 4 Table 3: Size distribution of farms and arable land in East Germany Farm size 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Below 100ha a 72.1 74.4 73.5 74.3 74.0 73.6 b 4.4 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.8 6.8 100 – 200 ha a 6.5 7.0 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.1 b 3.4 4.8 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.6 200 – 500 ha a 6.3 7.1 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.4 b 7.4 10.7 12.6 13.5 14.1 14.7 500 – 1000ha a 4.9 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 b 13.1 15.4 16.9 17.1 12.5 18.0 above 1000 ha a 10.1 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 b 71.8 63.4 58.8 56.7 55.2 53.9 a Share of farms in total number of farms; b share of land of farm class in total arable land. Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht, various issues. Table 4: Selected economic indicators of full-time single owner farms in East and West Germany (Farm sample data) 1991/92 West 1992/93 East West 1993/94 East Farms (number) 8617 532 8559 680 Arable land (ha per farm) 33.41 114 34.89 140 Man/ land ratio 4.79 1.58 4.6 1.4 (work unit/ 100 ha) Lease share (% arable land) 48.49 86.84 49.96 89.71 Lease price (DM/ha) 485 162 485 178 Profit (DM/ ha) 1394 564 1251 476 Profit/ work unit (DM) 3,2870 43,962 30,630 44,785 There are no data available separated for East and West for the period after 1994/95. Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht various issues 5 1994/95 West East West East. 8434 37.06 4.33 620 157 1.34 8403 38.99 4.12 729 160 1.34 51.62 487 1097 2,8649 89.81 192 471 4,9903 53.12 485 1152 31593 90.00 196 440 45943 Hence, the steep decline in the labor force immediately after unification was in the range of expectation (see Figure 2 in the Annex). However, it is a surprise that the labor force in the east declined even more than in the west after the man/land ratio had equalized. An explanation for this phenomena will be given below. Farm sizes for partnerships and corporate farms are much larger than for single owner farms. This legal form is nearly completely absent in West Germany. Hence, it was expected that this legal form would not be sustainable in the east. Indeed, Table 5 conveys that the number of single owner farms have increased somewhat, however, the numbers of partnership farms and of corporate farms have also increased over time. It is only the number of cooperatives which has gone down. Determinants of the agricultural sector in East Germany were obviously different than those in West Germany. An explanation will follow below. 3.2. Economic performance of agriculture in the east as compared to the west An assessment of the economic performs of agricultural transformation in East Germany can be based on two quite different approaches. One approach could be to investigate whether the adjustment was favorable from a macroeconomic point of view and the alternative approach could be to investigate whether the sector has gained in international competitiveness. Both approaches will be accepted in the following. Adjustment of the agricultural sector assessed from a financial and economic point of view The experience of West Germany and other countries supports the view that larger farms allow to earn a higher income per family working unit (see Table 6). Hence, it seems obvious that farm support which promotes growing of farm sizes should be viewed positively. Likewise, the quick increase in profit per family work unit in East German and surpassing the level of profit in West Germany already within three year after unification (see Figure 1) may be considered as a proof of the efficient transformation policy. However, this view can be challenged from an economic point of view . 6 Table 5: Selected Farm Indicators of full-time farms in East Germany (Farm sample data) Single Owner Number of farms Arable land in ha per farm Leased land in % of arable land Lease price in DM per ha Profit/Surplus DM/ha Partnerships Number of farms Arable land in ha per farm Leased land in % of arable land Lease price in DM per ha Profit/Surplus DM/ha Cooperatives 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/961 532 114 86,84 162 564 680 140 89,71 178 476 620 157 89,81 192 471 729 160 90,00 196 440 7760 52,3 51,97 442 1134 37 83 109 137 547 328 94,82 137 546 444 97,30 188 661 436 97,02 186 444 415 98,07 198 421 185,7 87,88 240 705 185,6 89,98 240 660 1588 99,94 158* 66 -15,9 1663 98,50 158* -52 -132,8 1642 98,60 158 4 -76,8 1595 97,49 158 33 -46,9 32 -89,5 -276 -342,9 322 Number of farms Arable land in ha per farm Leased land in % of arable land Lease price in DM per ha Profit/Surplus DM/ha Corrected Profit2 Corrected Profit 3 Total of corporate Number of farms Farms Arable land per farm Leased land in % of arable land Pachtpreis/ ha Pachtfläche Profit/surplus per ha Corrected Profit2 ) Corrected Profit 3 117 233 284 301 298 1754 99,09 115 -184 -205,75 1786 99,61 129 -52 -111,26 1736 99,65 153 -48 -81,36 1721 99,24 161 -24 -59,50 1473,7 96,34 159 1 -75,21 -236,52 -101,30 -87,34 -57,52 -269,80 1996/971 8154 48,5 57,53 441 1152 624 1498 95,46 161 -27 -103,11 1)Single owner and partnerships for the total of Germany, Corporate farms for East Germany.. 2) on the assumption that lease price are set equal to those paid by partnerships. - 3) On the assumption that lease prices are set equal to those paid by single owner farmers. Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht, various years;- Deutscher Bauernverband, Situationsbericht, various years. . 7 Table 6: Relationship between farm-performance and farm size standard business standard business income standard business income under 30000 between 30000 and 50000 income DM DM over 50000 DM 1974/1975 profit in DM/FAK 15033 22559 36697 farm size ha /LF 13,88 28,57 56,01 1980/1981 profit in DM/FAK 14089 20152 30846 farm size ha /LF 14,25 24,77 43,97 1989/1990 profit in DM/FAK 23068 34426 52194 farm size ha /LF 18,96 27,12 45,7 1994/1995 profit in DM/FAK 18642 26922 41171 farm size ha /LF 22,95 29,8 53,98 Note: FAK stands for family work units; standard business income stands for the value added which a farm can produce under normal conditions. Figure 1: Profit / FAK (in DM 1000) in East and West Germany in 1993/94 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Very Large East Large West Large East Medium West Medium East Small West Small East 0 Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht various issues. 8 Unemployment in East Germany has been high in all years since unification. High wages and the specific fixation of the exchange rate contributed to deindustrialization of the New Laender. The social consequences of unemployment were somewhat mitigated by the social security system introduced and subsidies from the west. Nevertheless, unemployment has been a serious social problem in the east. The agricultural sector could have absorbed a higher share of the labor force if incentives were given to employ more labor and less capital. However, the opposite was the case: High capital subsidies supported the move to more capital intensive activities, releasing labor. Distortions on the factor markets with wage rates higher than the shadow price for labor and interest rates lower than the shadow price for capital initiated an adjustment which was not favorable from an macroeconomic point of view. Subsidizing interest rates would have been positive from the macroeconomic point of view if the economy as a whole had gained in international competitiveness. The East German experience indicates that the agricultural sector may have gained from interest subsidies, but not the farming population and the overall economy. The German Government strongly believed that the transformation of the economy in the eastern part should and could be promoted by paying transfers from west to east. The experience seems to prove that the agricultural sector was one of the few tradables producing sectors which seem to have reached international competitiveness after few years. This view will be challenged in the following. First, the extent competitive after a short period of time. In the following the extent and form of subsidization will be shown first, and the rationale of this policy will be questioned afterwards. To address the shock to prices and farm incomes in the east, the German government launched a huge financial assistance program for a five year period (up to 1995) with declining annual budget allocations3. Assistance budgeted for the second half of 1990 amounted to DM 6.871 billion and declined to DM 2.0 billion in 1994 and to DM 1.8 billion in 1995, giving a total budget allocation of DM 17.4 billion. Financial support in the first year of unification exceeded the annual value added of East German agriculture in West German prices by far. Agriculture’s value of production in 1990/91 amounted to about DM 15.0 billion and equaled about the value of purchased inputs4. Taking into account depreciation agriculture’s value added in 1990/1991, the first year of unification, was negative. Thus, survival of the sector was secured by the huge amounts of subsidies. However, subsidization of the agricultural sector has to be seen in comparison with other sectors. The wage bill of the processing sectors surpassed the value added of the sector by 143 percent in 1991, by 102 percent in 1992 and still by 77 percent in 19935. Thus, these sectors could only pay these wages because of the subsidies received from the west. The bulk of the payments for agriculture, DM 2.61 billion, helped the sector cope with the price break and provided needed liquidity. The government targeted enterprises that had less than DM 10,000 per worker in liquid funds, based on data as of July 1, 1990. Farms in disadvantaged regions received an additional DM 0.22 billion, because it was argued that they faced more serious pressure to adjust than the average farm. A sum of DM 140 million was directed to state farms and DM 150 million to farms that suffered from high debt due to prior bad investments. 3 Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht, various issues. Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht 1991, p. 147. 5 Sinn, G. and H.-W. Sinn (1992), p. 32. 4 9 Table 7: Farm sample data for alternative legal forms in Germany (1997/98) Index number Unit Legal entities 1 Family farms ) Standard farm income Arable land in ha per farm Leased land in % of arable land Lease per ha Members Out of which employed on the farm Working units Out of which unpaid Work unit/100ha Livestock units Cereal yield Milk yield Piglets Profit Profit Profit4) + wages Profit4) + wages Profit4) + wages Total labor income Farm income East3) 1000 DM ha All of Germany 73.3 49.4 ha 57.9 28.6 n.a.5) 89.5 448 - 201.7 - 256 - DM/ha Persons Persons WU nWU LU/100 ha LS/100 ha dt/ha kg/cow Piglets/sow DM/farm DM/ha DM/farm DM/ha DM/LU DM/LU DM/LU 135.1 162.9 Corporate Farms (East)3 Partnerships All of Top 25% All of Germany Germany 2) 203.9 419.5 1 678.3 179.6 417.9 1 520.7 1.70 2.36 1.46 1.63 3.44 1.17 150.7 36.9 64.8 56.9 5834 6107 18.7 57 668 86 752 1 168 533 64 869 110 275 1 314 677 38 185 46 653 16 548 39458 50 287 64 507 Cooperatives 1 775.0 1 593.7 95.7 96.0 231 - 164 66.27 21.13 165 73.97 26.55 3.27 4.92 2.11 2.59 1.82 1.17 63.3 29.4 61.3 63.2 6295 6650 18.6 131 057 328 042 730 785 170 430 415 801 35.30 2.32 76.3 55.4 6107 20.1 23 325 15 1 471 935 37.81 2.37 75.3 55.5 4 771 3 1 577 305 949 995 52 065 84 512 42 287 76 280 70 197 108 445 968 41 704 36 073 52 073 990 41 717 35 731 51 594 1) Full time farms only. 2) Including the legal entities Limited Liability Companies, Limited Partnerships, Joint stock companies, and Associations 3) East Germany only. 4) Before taxes. 5) n.a. = not available. Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht 1999, calculations presented by Alois Balmann, Berlin. Total payments per worker employed in agriculture in 1990 was about DM 8000 for the six months period of that year. Even if total budget allocation declined over time (see above) payments per worker dropped much less due to massive outmigration from agriculture. Even in 1995, the last year of special funding of the restructuring process, payments per worker amounted to about DM 14,000 annually per person full-time employed in agriculture. Moreover, these data do not include unemployment compensation, retirement incentives, or the costs of employment programs for those who left the sector. This assistance consisted mainly of transfers from West Germany, because the non-agricultural population of East Germany could not have paid this sum. In addition to the sheer magnitude of the transfer, the design of the payments affected the adjustment. In general, farms in the form of natural persons were favored over corporate farms, and much of the assistance was in the form of subsidized credit. As a consequence, substitution of capital for labor in the sector was probably even greater than it would have been otherwise, and the smaller private farms 10 became more capital intensive than the larger business entities, such as limited liability companies and cooperative farms. New private farmers benefited from three types of support6: • initial aid (start-up grants) of up to DM 23,500 paid to new farmers up to the age of 55 years, • subsidized credits, and • grants for investment in pasture-based livestock operations. In addition, farmers in the East had immediate access to the EU and West German schemes for restructuring of farms. Some of the schemes were directed only to single owner or partnership farms and thus discriminated against cooperatives or limited companies. Moreover, most of the programs had a cap on payments made per enterprise or per worker, and thus smaller farms benefited more than larger ones. The cap of support per farm worker or per enterprise had the most discriminating effect on juridical farms (cooperative or limited companies) because they employed more workers per farm than the private farms. By utilizing a mix of programs available to new private family farms, an operator setting up a farm to employ himself full time and his wife half time could have received between 60,000 - 80,000 DM in annual transfers for the financing period of the investment. Because of these programs, investment per workplace in agriculture was extremely high. It is likely, however, that the payments reduced the number of jobs available, as investors wrote off technically usable capital and purchased labor saving alternatives. Investment in dairy production is a special case in point. According to one survey7, most of dairy stables in the former GDR were usable, but they needed alterations. New buildings required higher investment per cow, but less labor. Thus, credit subsidies most likely contributed to substitution of more capital for labor than would have occurred anyway, thereby increasing the outflow of labor from the sector. As credit was rationed per farm and working unit the profitability of production, such as crop production, which needed a smaller amount of starting capital was more positively affected than that of livestock production, which needs a higher capital stock. The value of assets per ha was DM 4 584 for crop farms in 1993/94, but 8 569 DM for livestock farms in East Germany. The first had a gross investment of DM 773 per ha in 1993/1994 and the latter of DM 1 4448. The decision to subsidize capital in agriculture may have been based on the observation that the capital stock in East German agriculture was out of date. Most people believed that improved farm efficiency required new investment. Credit subsidies, however, were not an appropriate instrument of assistance, since they reduced the apparent cost of capital when its real cost had risen with the transition, and they reduced employment when the real cost of labor had declined. Moreover, since some of the investment would have been profitable without subsidies capital owners received an additional rent. The German experience with farm credit subsidization indicates that these programs contributed widely to a wastage of capital from an economic point of view. Of course, farms were supposed to submit a so-called ‘farm improvement plan’ proving the profitability of the investment. However, the 6 See Schrader, J.V. (1991), p. 27. Fiedler, C., et al. (1994), Wirtschaftlichkeit von Um- und Neubauten in der Milchviehhaltung. In: Klare, K. (ed.), cit. op., pp. 175. 8 Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht 1995, Anhang, p. 280. 7 11 data reveals that in spite of these plans, that a high share of the farms is under serious financial stress, suffering from low income, losing equity and having negative net investment. A detailed investigation of the ‘farm investment program’ for Schleswig-Holstein found that about half of the farms which have been supported generated a loss in equity even with support and, moreover, the projections made in the ‘farm improvement plans’ showed nearly no correspondence with reality (see Table 8). It is obvious that ‘farm improvement plans’ are not a reasonable tool to discriminate between profitable and unprofitable investments. It is likely that these plans are manipulated to get access to the benefits of credit subsidization. However, as not all farms can enjoy credit subsidization, those which receive it improve their competitiveness at the costs of those who are not supported. It is likely that the sector as a whole loses in international competitiveness. Farmers themselves know best as to whether an investment might be profitable. If they receive credit subsidies, investments may be undertaken which are less profitable than those at market interest rate. Hence, these programs allocate the scarce factor in sectors which use capital less efficiently than do other sectors of the economy. Table 8: Actual and planned performance indicators of supported farms in the target year Quartiles of labor income in DM/work unit statistics 1. quartile 2. quartile 3. quartile 4. quartile number of farms 78 77 77 77 actual labor income /work unit 12.192 39.571 61.064 109.415 1,000 planned labor income per 37.606 39.346 40.599 41.563 0,2465 work unit2 according to Farm Investment Plan (FIP) earned Interest rate -6,7 -0,5 3,6 9,5 0,8848 profit in the target year 23.389 62.273 90.647 122.514 0,7664 planned profit according to 74.262 76.422 77.402 81.248 0,1453 (FIP) surplus1 -40.641 -12.813 52.181 21.045 0,4728 supported investment 262.757 273.156 255.962 264.278 -0,0381 own means 103.110 88.231 88.004 90.512 -0,0624 subsidy equivalents 71.872 88.447 73.078 76.363 -0,0434 1 2 Profit minus withdrawals for private and other use – Labor income per necessary work unit – 3 Four years after the actual year of support Source: Striewe, L., J.-P. Loy and U. Koester (1997), Analyse und Beurteilung der einzelbetrieblichen Investitionsförderung in Schleswig-Holstein. Agrarwirtschaft. 3.3. Stability of farms East Germany was in a much better position than most other transition countries in rebuilding a new farm structure. There were some workers on the former collective farms who had have the experience to work as an independent farmer some 45 years ago. In addition, even those former owners of large farms who did not benefit from restitution had still some emotional ties to the land and were willing to start farming. Moreover, there were some farms coming from the west who invested some capital in eastern farms. The financial support of the government may have given the final incentive for many of 12 these farmers to start farming. All this new investment was built on the expectations that the new farms would be profitable. Hence, it might be of interest to investigate how many of the new enterprises seem to be viable in the long term. The criteria used for viability of a farm is change in equity and net investment. It may be considered as a surprise that quite a high percentage of all newly founded farms in East Germany seem to be financially unstable in spite of having received a significant amount of support and in spite of the huge transfers made by the Common Agricultural Policy. The share of full-time farmers with negative investment even increased from 36 percent in 195/96 to 48 percent in 1997/98. Like wise the share of full-time single owner farms with loss in equity increased from 29 to 33 percent over the same period of time. However, it should be noted that the share of full-time single owner farms in West Germany with loss in equity and negative investment was even higher in the same period. However, that is plausible. Farms in West Germany have been mainly inherited and the owners can live for quite a while eating up equity. On the other hand, farms in East Germany have been generally founded with a small share of equity in total capital needed to run the farm. It can be assumed that the investment was based on expecting profitable farming and the support given by the Government was based on the same expectation. Obviously, many of the new farmers’ expectations have not been confirmed. It should be noted that the bad experience was not the result of adverse economic or political changes in the environment. Just the opposite: the change in the Common Agricultural Policy has significantly helped to stabilize many farms. It is true that prices for crop and oilseeds were lowered, but the income loss was even overcompensated on purpose by direct payments in East Germany. Substituting direct payments for revenue earned through sales has lowered market risk, increased liquidity and reduced the pressure and incentive to adjust to the new economic environment. Hence, it can be assumed that even a higher percentage of the new farmers would have been under financial pressure more of farmers without the CAP reform. The general message which can be drawn is: 1. Farming is a risky activity. Whether investment will earn the expected interest depends very much on the manager of the farm. As the variance in managers’ qualification seems to be very large, there is hardly any objective criteria to identify criteria which allow an outsider (Government officials) to predict the viability of a farm at the time of setting up the farm. Consequently, investment subsidies reduce the risk for private investors and, hence, increases the likelihood that even a higher percentage of newly founded farms will be financially unstable after few years. 2. There is hardly any farm structure which is stable over time, even if economic circumstances do not change. Hence, a policy which allows entry of new farmers and exit of unsuccessful farmers will lead to overall welfare gains. A functioning land market is one of the most important determinants of adjusting the farm structure in order to gain overall efficiency. 3. Data from East Germany do not yet permit to rule out that cooperatives may survive for a long time. However, the experience indicate that the number of cooperatives will decline over time as well as the number of single owner farms. Nevertheless, the involved land transfer is going in the direction of single owner farms. Hence, the share of land cultivated by cooperatives declines over time. 13 Table 9: Percentage of farms with negative change in equity and negative net investment, West and East Germany (Farm sample data) Percentage of farms with Percentage of farms with negative change in equity negative net investment East-Germany: Single owner 1) 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 29 34 33 36 42 48 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 19 30 28 27 41 48 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 51 56 46 43 44 61 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 56 57 48 41 41 65 Partnerships Legal persons Cooperatives West Germany: Single owner 1) 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 46 45 48 60 58 57 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 36 37 41 54 55 53 Partnerships 1) Full-time farms. Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Bonn. 3.4. The importance of land tenure Farms in the west are normally in the hand of the families for generations and farming is in many cases not mainly considered as an economic activity to earn the highest possible profit. Instead, farming is often considered as life-style. Hence, there is often resistance to give up farming even if capital remuneration would be higher in other activities or if even a loss in equity could be avoided. Consequently, income earned in agriculture is on average general lower than in other sectors. Of course, this might be of no concern from a society point of view as long as private farmers are willingly accepting their fate and as long they do not demand protection. The inherent problem with farmers who own the land is that the heirs may start farming because of inherited land and that the 14 young farmers are not well informed about prospects of farming and alternatives. The outcome is often mismatched income expectations, small farm sizes and, hence, political pressure for protection. Tenancy farming may have significant advantages, especially in periods where a strong pressure for changes in farm structure is needed. It is often claimed that tenants have less access to credit and, hence, may produce less efficient than land owning farmers. However, this might have been true some fifty years ago when the main asset of farms was land. Nowadays, with capital intensive farming farmers may own a significant amount of capital even if the land is rented. Hence, access to credit may be granted because some non-land assets may be used as collateral. Experience in farming with mixed ownership of land supports the view that tenant farms tend to be more efficient than farmers owning all or most of the land. It is noteworthy, that there is a strong relationship between share of rent and profit per family working unit on the one hand and share of rent and working unit per 100 ha. This indicates that farms try to make better use of there family work by expanding the farm size. However, it has to be admitted that the effect of tenure on efficiency is difficult to identify exactly, as most tenant farms are larger than land owned farms. The high performance of tenant farms indicates that these farmers in spite of having to pay rents earn a higher income. Hence, they must either work harder or have to be better qualified. Actually, there is a strong hypothesis that both may be true. Those who rent land must be competitive on the land market and hence must be able to pay higher rents than their competitors. However, this can only be true if they are better farmers. It might be astonishing that even those farmers who don’t own any land they cultivate seem to be better off than others who own at least part of the land. Again it must be due to higher qualification of the farmer. The higher qualification of tenant farmers seems to follow from the selection of the farm successors. Those who operate on their own land are in most cases the heirs who became farmers not mainly because they may have felt a compassion and talent for farming but because they expected to inherit a farm. In contrast, those who start farming as a tenant know that they have to be qualified to make their living as a farmer and to be able to pay the rent. Hence, a young tenant tends to be better qualified than a farmer who owns the land. Many farmers make a loss year after year and thus reduce their equity. This may even last for one generation of farmers with less talent and diligence. In contrast, a tenant farmer can not survive making losses in a row of years. Thus, market forces tend to enforce the selection of the best farmers much more in the case of tenancy than for landlord farmers. However, even if tenant farms might be more efficient than owner farmers there are some inherent problems with tenancy farming. First, it matters whether the owner of the land is the state or private persons. The German experience indicates that there might be huge administrative costs involved if the owner is the state. Second, tenant farmers might not take proper care of the land and buildings they have rented. Hence, there is a need for monitoring and enforcing rental contracts. These costs are normally born by the landlord. Third, tenants may be reluctant to undertake long term investment if the maturity term of the investment surpasses the rental period and if there are no well defined rules for asset valuation and compensation at the end of the rental contract. 15 In spite of these possible disadvantages of tenancy farming the comparison in farm structure between East and West Germany supports the view that farming based on tenancy is better suited to adjust the farm size to effective use of resources than land ownership farming. Even the single owner farms in East Germany expanded their farm size faster than those in West Germany as transfer of land was relatively faster, allowing the land to move to the most efficient farmer faster in the east than in the west. The East German experience allows one to draw some important conclusions: Private ownership of small pieces of land does not necessary lead to the dominance of family farms. Tenancy farming may help to make best use of those few agriculturists who are well trained to operate a farm efficiently. Farming based of tenancy seems to be able to adjust faster to changes in technology and allows faster to adjust farm sizes than land ownership farming. 4. Summary 1. The evolution of agriculture in East Germany is exceptional as compared to that in other transition countries. East Germany has started with a more pronounced price shock than other countries, but the agricultural sector enjoyed a positive economic environment. 2. The farm structure has changed significantly, but has not met expectations. In spite of restitution and private ownership of land the evolving farm structure consists of much larger farms in East than in West Germany. Most of the land is still not cultivated by family farms but by corporations. Both, full-time single owner farms and corporations grew over time. However, the number of cooporatives has declined over time. 3. Land distribution is highly unequal. About 54 percent of the land is operated by farms in the size class over 1000 ha and only 6.8 percent of the land is cultivated by farms in the size class below 100 ha. 4. Farms in East Germany cultivate rented land, but give yield to higher profitability than their counterparts in the west. 5. The variance in net investment and in the change in equity across farms is very high. A high proportion of all farms, independently on the legal form, has to accept a loss in equity from year to year and is not able to enhance the capital stock. 6. The bad performance of a high proportion of the farms may be considered as a surprise in spite of the high subsidies paid by the German Government and the EU. 7. The effectiveness of subsidies for farm investment has to be questioned. This holds even more from the economic than financial point of view. 8. It might be considered as a surprise that the rate of outmigration from agriculture is still higher in East than in West Germany. 9. Single owner full-time farms in East Germany were on average in 1991/92 – the first year after unification – three times as large as their counterparts in the west. Nevertheless the gap in size has 16 increased over time. A flexible land market based on tenancy farming seems to be a promoter of structural change. It may not be possible to forecast the exact farm structure in East Germany in the future. However, some prediction should be in order. The number of farms will further decline and the average size increase. The share of land cultivated by cooperatives is expected to decline further in favor of single owner farms. The farm structure in East Germany will continue to diverge from that in West Germany for the foreseeable future. References Boese, Ch., J. Welschof, H. Neumetzler, and G. Schmidt (1991), Auswirkungen der geänderten Rahmenbedingungen auf die Landwirtschaft der neuen Bundesländer”. In: Henrichmeyer, H., and K. Schmidt (eds), Die Integration der Landwirtschaft der neuen Bundesländer in den europäischen Agrarmarkt. Agrarwirtschaft, Sonderheft 129, Buchedition Agrarmedia, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht, various issues; (1999, calculations presented by Alois Balmann, Berlin). Deutscher Bauernverband, Situationsbericht, various years. Fiedler, C., et al. (1994), Wirtschaftlichkeit von Um- und Neubauten in der Milchviehhaltung. In: Klare, K. (ed.), cit. op., pp. 175. Koester, U. and K. Brooks (1997), Agriculture and German Reunification. Word Bank Discussion Paper No. 355. Washington, D.C.. Sinn, G. and H.-W. Sinn (1992), Kaltstart. Volkswirtschaftliche Aspekte der deutschen Vereinigung. 2. Auflage, Tübingen, p. 32. Schrader, J.V. (1991), Anpassungsprozesse in der ostdeutschen Landwirtschaft: Analyse und Bewertung. Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge 171/172. Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, p. 27. Statistical Yearbook of the DDR (1989), various issues. Striewe, L., J.-P. Loy and U. Koester (1997), Analyse und Beurteilung der einzelbetrieblichen Investitionsförderung in Schleswig-Holstein. “Agrarwirtschaft”, Vol.45, No.12, pp.423-434. Weber, A. (1993), Umgestaltung der Eigentumsverhältnisse und der Produktionsstruktur in der Landwirtschaft der DDR. Kiel p. 68. 17 18 Annex Table 1: Selected Indicators of Farms in East Germany Classified According to Legal Status (Farms of 1 ha and larger) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Number of Farms Share in total arable land Farm size in ha Single Owner Partnerships 10499 0.17 114.24 14602 13.2 46 20587 17.6 45 22601 20 48 24588 20.7 46 25003 21.7 49 25355 22.2 49 25925 22.8 49 n.a. n.a. 425 1123 13.8 629 1879 18.1 511 2388 20.6 468 2671 21.7 449 2820 22.2 437 2931 22.7 432 3064 22.8 417 Jur. Entities of Private Law Total n.a. n.a. n.a. 2749 72 1338 2829 63.9 1197 2824 59.2 1138 2896 57.4 1094 2888 55.9 1076 2873 54.9 1063 2942 54.2 1032 Source : Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten, Agrarbericht, various issues. 19 Co-operatives 2998 83 n.a. 1464 44.1 1537 1388 38.8 1479 1335 35.8 1457 1315 34.2 1435 1293 33.2 1425 1248 32.1 1431 1218 31.1 1432 Jur. entities of public law 464 1 n.a. 101 1 483 73 0.4 272 78 0.3 191 87 0.2 132 115 0.2 86 79 0.02 110 55 0.2 134 Annex Figure 1: Distribution of Farm Sizes and Arable Land in East Germany 100 100 Share of Farms (%) 1992 1997 80 80 60 60 40 40 1997 1992 20 20 Share of Arable Land (%) 0 0 unter 100 ha 100 - 200 ha 200 - 500 ha 500 - 1000 ha Source: Bundesministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten. Agrarbericht various issues 20 0 über 1000 ha Annex Figure 2: Agricultural Employment in West- and East Germany 100 90 80 70 60 West Germany 50 40 East Germany 30 20 log scale 10 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Agricultural Employment mearured in work force units (Akh) Source: Agrarbericht der Bundesregierung var. issues 21 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998